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Taxi645
Posts: 578
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:58 am

I think RJMAZ's analyses is largely correct. The only problem is that the EIS of an ultrafan A350 will make the relevance of that analysis somewhat short lived. If we assume a 2028-2031 introduction into service. That will be 4-7 years after 77X EIS. The target fuel saving vs the TrentXWB on an airplane level is 10%. Is we therefor assume a SFC gain of 11-12% to compensate for the heavier, draggier engines, we would be looking at 6-7% SFC advantage over the Ge9x.

I don't see a way how the 777X would be gathering any significant sales against for instance a 280t ultrafan A350-950.

And that's assuming Airbus and RR won't have an ultrafan sollution for the 319t version by that time, which seems unlike so many years after the originally planned EIS of 2025 and no huge delays other than a deliberate one.
 
Opus99
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:00 am

I don’t EIS of ultrafan this decade on any platform. Launch will be this decade though.

An ultra fanned 78X or 350-900 will be extremely compelling
 
JonesNL
Posts: 541
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:07 am

RJMAZ wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
So, the engine is so good that it will overcome the weight deficiency of +30t OEW ~20%. I sure hope you are right, as it would be a revolution on it’s own.
Until now all indications are showing that the 787-9 and A350-900 are the better choice…

That is not how it works. Look at the 787-10 Vs A350-900. The 787-10 has a approximately 4% more cabin area and 4% lower empty weight. That's a pretty large 8% difference. Yet the A350-900 burns less fuel on a long haul flight as the A350 spent the extra weight on a larger wing.

If you take the same aircraft fuselage and have two different wing options a 50m and 70m wing. The 70m wing will burn less fuel and require less thrust at cruise despite having the heaviest empty weight. If the requirement was to only fly short haul then it is best to fit the smaller 50m wing and put bigger engines to compensate.

Let's compare 777-9 Vs A350-1000.
Wing root to tip: 32.77m vs 29.4m
Cabin area: 329.8m2 vs 364.7m2
Thrust: 97klb vs 110klb
MTOW: 316t vs 351t

The 777-9 has
11.5% more wing
11% more cabin area
13% more thrust (superior hot/high performance)
11% higher MTOW
16% higher empty weight

As you can see it is consistently 11% larger so really the empty weight is only 5% higher being at 16%.
GE claims the Ge9x has 10% better SFC than the GE90 and 5% better than the best engine in its class. This can only mean the Trent XWB. A 5% engine advantage to the 777-9 will see it beating the A350-1000.

The wing fold mechanism no doubt increases the empty weight compared to just having a fixed of the same span but the fuel burn penalty if that extra weight would be worth the savings of still being able to use code E gates. Code F gates will disappear eventually.


viewtopic.php?t=769733
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777X
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A350


Using wiki for OEW is probably not wise. There have been many reports that A350-1000 have been delivered with a OEW of 148t and the OEW of the 777-9 being around 182t. This changes your math in favor of the A35k.

But I am not saying that the A35k is better. I am saying that the A359 and 787 are much better options than both the 777-9 and the A35k...
 
flipdewaf
Posts: 4329
Joined: Thu Jul 20, 2006 6:28 am

777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:11 am

RJMAZ wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
So, the engine is so good that it will overcome the weight deficiency of +30t OEW ~20%. I sure hope you are right, as it would be a revolution on it’s own.
Until now all indications are showing that the 787-9 and A350-900 are the better choice…

That is not how it works. Look at the 787-10 Vs A350-900. The 787-10 has a approximately 4% more cabin area and 4% lower empty weight.

4% lower weight, is this like the 10% lower fuel burn of the 789? Lol
RJMAZ wrote:
That's a pretty large 8% difference.

Ha! Why in the world would you add those two figures together (even if they were both true). Hilarious.
RJMAZ wrote:
Yet the A350-900 burns less fuel on a long haul flight as the A350 spent the extra weight on a larger wing.


If you take the same aircraft fuselage and have two different wing options a 50m and 70m wing. The 70m wing will burn less fuel and require less thrust at cruise despite having the heaviest empty weight.

No, it is so much more nuanced than that. At equal weight that’s true but when not equal weights (they wouldn’t be) then more information is needed to make an assessment.
RJMAZ wrote:
If the requirement was to only fly short haul then it is best to fit the smaller 50m wing and put bigger engines to compensate.

Let's compare 777-9 Vs A350-1000.
Wing root to tip: 32.77m vs 29.4m
Cabin area: 329.8m2 vs 364.7m2
Thrust: 97klb vs 110klb
MTOW: 316t vs 351t

The 777-9 has
11.5% more wing
11% more cabin area
13% more thrust (superior hot/high performance)

An incorrect assessment as this assumes each at MTOW. We know that the A35k has a greater range and so would not need to be at MTOW to match the payload range performance of the 779x.
RJMAZ wrote:
11% higher MTOW
16% higher empty weight

So you take an assessment of the A35k at 155t and the 779x at 180t? You must also see that that means the 779x uses 6+% per pax than an A35k on the 7285nm 779x spec mission.
RJMAZ wrote:

As you can see it is consistently 11% larger so really the empty weight is only 5% higher being at 16%.

What are your assumptions to get to 16%?
RJMAZ wrote:
GE claims the Ge9x has 10% better SFC than the GE90 and 5% better than the best engine in its class. This can only mean the Trent XWB. A 5% engine advantage to the 777-9 will see it beating the A350-1000.

What is your expectation on range and payload capabilities?

Fred


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
sxf24
Posts: 1500
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 27, 2021 5:43 pm

JonesNL wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
I expect the Ge9X to exceed expectations and carry the 777X program to success. It will have a small SFC advantage over the Trent XWB engine. This covers any weight deficiency.

So, the engine is so good that it will overcome the weight deficiency of +30t OEW ~20%. I sure hope you are right, as it would be a revolution on it’s own.
Until now all indications are showing that the 787-9 and A350-900 are the better choice…


Where are you getting a 30t OEW deficiency?
 
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Pythagoras
Posts: 202
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:09 pm

RJMAZ wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
So, the engine is so good that it will overcome the weight deficiency of +30t OEW ~20%. I sure hope you are right, as it would be a revolution on it’s own.
Until now all indications are showing that the 787-9 and A350-900 are the better choice…

That is not how it works. Look at the 787-10 Vs A350-900. The 787-10 has a approximately 4% more cabin area and 4% lower empty weight. That's a pretty large 8% difference. Yet the A350-900 burns less fuel on a long haul flight as the A350 spent the extra weight on a larger wing.

If you take the same aircraft fuselage and have two different wing options a 50m and 70m wing. The 70m wing will burn less fuel and require less thrust at cruise despite having the heaviest empty weight. If the requirement was to only fly short haul then it is best to fit the smaller 50m wing and put bigger engines to compensate.

Let's compare 777-9 Vs A350-1000.
Wing root to tip: 32.77m vs 29.4m
Cabin area: 329.8m2 vs 364.7m2
Thrust: 97klb vs 110klb
MTOW: 316t vs 351t

The 777-9 has
11.5% more wing
11% more cabin area
13% more thrust (superior hot/high performance)
11% higher MTOW
16% higher empty weight

As you can see it is consistently 11% larger so really the empty weight is only 5% higher being at 16%.
GE claims the Ge9x has 10% better SFC than the GE90 and 5% better than the best engine in its class. This can only mean the Trent XWB. A 5% engine advantage to the 777-9 will see it beating the A350-1000.

The wing fold mechanism no doubt increases the empty weight compared to just having a fixed of the same span but the fuel burn penalty if that extra weight would be worth the savings of still being able to use code E gates. Code F gates will disappear eventually.

viewtopic.php?t=769733
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_777X
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Airbus_A350


There seems to be quite a bit of apples-to-oranges comparisons here between A350 and 777-9 airplanes. What isn't being considered is how engine costs factor into this. We know that thrust bumps and higher inlet temperatures reduce time-on-wing. So when airlines are evaluating an A350 and 777-9 airplane within their operations, they are going to take into account what compromises they are going to have to incur when placed into service. The payload-range curves for these airplanes are based upon standard conditions which may not be directly applicable to an individual carrier's operations. Furthermore, airlines use their own rules to evaluate the performance degradation that occurs as engines wear, whether that is tip clearances or otherwise.

As I mentioned above, the 777-9 is spec'd to Emirates fleet needs. So it is going to be meeting the economics for Emirates which I presume would include operational flexibility to operate under hot conditions with a substantial payload while not overworking the engine. The high aspect ratio and planform area of the 777-9 wing make it very low drag which further reduces the need for a high thrust engine. Just making comparisons on max thrust and MTOW alone doesn't capture this.
 
JonesNL
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:19 pm

sxf24 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
RJMAZ wrote:
I expect the Ge9X to exceed expectations and carry the 777X program to success. It will have a small SFC advantage over the Trent XWB engine. This covers any weight deficiency.

So, the engine is so good that it will overcome the weight deficiency of +30t OEW ~20%. I sure hope you are right, as it would be a revolution on it’s own.
Until now all indications are showing that the 787-9 and A350-900 are the better choice…


Where are you getting a 30t OEW deficiency?


There was a thread that put newly delivered A350s at 148t and there are several recent sources estimating/stating 777x OEW around 182t. Which gives it a 34t difference. If we use Wikipedia(big sin in science community) as source the difference is 25t(155 vs 180t). For convenience I chose the middle ground of 30t…
 
sxf24
Posts: 1500
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:49 pm

JonesNL wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
So, the engine is so good that it will overcome the weight deficiency of +30t OEW ~20%. I sure hope you are right, as it would be a revolution on it’s own.
Until now all indications are showing that the 787-9 and A350-900 are the better choice…


Where are you getting a 30t OEW deficiency?


There was a thread that put newly delivered A350s at 148t and there are several recent sources estimating/stating 777x OEW around 182t. Which gives it a 34t difference. If we use Wikipedia(big sin in science community) as source the difference is 25t(155 vs 180t). For convenience I chose the middle ground of 30t…



I don’t think there’s an authoritative source for 777X OEW yet and it’s probably good to explain your math. It’s also helpful to limit comparison to A350-1000 with highest MTOW, which will weigh more than other models and options.
 
JonesNL
Posts: 541
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sat Nov 27, 2021 11:42 pm

sxf24 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

Where are you getting a 30t OEW deficiency?


There was a thread that put newly delivered A350s at 148t and there are several recent sources estimating/stating 777x OEW around 182t. Which gives it a 34t difference. If we use Wikipedia(big sin in science community) as source the difference is 25t(155 vs 180t). For convenience I chose the middle ground of 30t…



I don’t think there’s an authoritative source for 777X OEW yet and it’s probably good to explain your math. It’s also helpful to limit comparison to A350-1000 with highest MTOW, which will weigh more than other models and options.


True, but most sources (with pictures weight and payload in cockpit) saying the same makes the likelihood of being the truth quite high…
 
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Pellegrine
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sun Nov 28, 2021 12:43 am

If anything I want to see a 777-10X, with upgraded landing gear, MTOW, and 8,000nm range.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1500
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:06 am

JonesNL wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:

There was a thread that put newly delivered A350s at 148t and there are several recent sources estimating/stating 777x OEW around 182t. Which gives it a 34t difference. If we use Wikipedia(big sin in science community) as source the difference is 25t(155 vs 180t). For convenience I chose the middle ground of 30t…



I don’t think there’s an authoritative source for 777X OEW yet and it’s probably good to explain your math. It’s also helpful to limit comparison to A350-1000 with highest MTOW, which will weigh more than other models and options.


True, but most sources (with pictures weight and payload in cockpit) saying the same makes the likelihood of being the truth quite high…


I’ve yet to see a picture of the 777X cockpit. Can you post a link that shows it with weight and payload?
 
JohanTally
Posts: 532
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:42 am

sxf24 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
sxf24 wrote:


I don’t think there’s an authoritative source for 777X OEW yet and it’s probably good to explain your math. It’s also helpful to limit comparison to A350-1000 with highest MTOW, which will weigh more than other models and options.


True, but most sources (with pictures weight and payload in cockpit) saying the same makes the likelihood of being the truth quite high…


I’ve yet to see a picture of the 777X cockpit. Can you post a link that shows it with weight and payload?

Opus99 shared this in the 777X testing thread and they calculated a roughly 181.4t OEW.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CWgHeC6pPuG ... =copy_link
 
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Boeing757rb211
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sun Nov 28, 2021 4:05 am

sxf24 wrote:
I don’t think a 787-10 that flies 7,500nm is possible.


Why ? The current longest flight operated by a Boeing 787-10 is Taiwan, Taipei to France, Paris—CDG on Eva Air Flight BR-87 and it comes in at 9,805 km (6,093 mi; 5,294 nmi) Doing an Extra 1,500mi to reach 7,500mi,,, doesn't seem like THAT MUCH of a Stretch OR impossibility.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1500
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:41 am

JohanTally wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:

True, but most sources (with pictures weight and payload in cockpit) saying the same makes the likelihood of being the truth quite high…


I’ve yet to see a picture of the 777X cockpit. Can you post a link that shows it with weight and payload?

Opus99 shared this in the 777X testing thread and they calculated a roughly 181.4t OEW.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CWgHeC6pPuG ... =copy_link


We’re using a flight test airplane to determine the OEW - and viability - of an entire airplane program? That’s messed up.
 
flipdewaf
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:20 am

Boeing757rb211 wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
I don’t think a 787-10 that flies 7,500nm is possible.


Why ? The current longest flight operated by a Boeing 787-10 is Taiwan, Taipei to France, Paris—CDG on Eva Air Flight BR-87 and it comes in at 9,805 km (6,093 mi; 5,294 nmi) Doing an Extra 1,500mi to reach 7,500mi,,, doesn't seem like THAT MUCH of a Stretch OR impossibility.

To reach a 7500nm (basically that of the 789) range at spec payload the 787-10 would need an MTOW of ~270t whilst maintaining its current OWE.

I’d say that’s a pretty big change.

Fred


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
JonesNL
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:34 am

sxf24 wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

I’ve yet to see a picture of the 777X cockpit. Can you post a link that shows it with weight and payload?

Opus99 shared this in the 777X testing thread and they calculated a roughly 181.4t OEW.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CWgHeC6pPuG ... =copy_link


We’re using a flight test airplane to determine the OEW - and viability - of an entire airplane program? That’s messed up.

I thought the principle of a test plane is to have it as production like possible plane to get production like test data. The planes will be even sold-off to customers eventually. And it is one of the several sources. Don’t think waiving it off as messed up is contributing to the discussion…
 
miegapele
Posts: 121
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 12:24 pm

Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sun Nov 28, 2021 8:32 am

Well there is no need to compare with A380, with such investment and 300 sales 777x is white elephant by definition. Unless sales somehow picks up.
There is no need for anything more than 787 in reality. Airbus gets consolation prize for A359, being the only alternative.
Obviously here is a.net, so every plane Boeing makes is the best and most successful ever, you can read old 764 threads for confirmation.
 
JeremyB
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sun Nov 28, 2021 1:17 pm

JohanTally wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:

True, but most sources (with pictures weight and payload in cockpit) saying the same makes the likelihood of being the truth quite high…


I’ve yet to see a picture of the 777X cockpit. Can you post a link that shows it with weight and payload?

Opus99 shared this in the 777X testing thread and they calculated a roughly 181.4t OEW.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CWgHeC6pPuG ... =copy_link


Yes, I did say 181,4t OEW, but that is with everything that is currently on board. All the ballast tanks, computers, seats, etc. Unless Boeing gives a definitive answer on the OEW I'd say it might be slightly under 180t even.
 
Weatherwatcher1
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sun Nov 28, 2021 2:43 pm

JonesNL wrote:
sxf24 wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
Opus99 shared this in the 777X testing thread and they calculated a roughly 181.4t OEW.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CWgHeC6pPuG ... =copy_link


We’re using a flight test airplane to determine the OEW - and viability - of an entire airplane program? That’s messed up.

I thought the principle of a test plane is to have it as production like possible plane to get production like test data. The planes will be even sold-off to customers eventually. And it is one of the several sources. Don’t think waiving it off as messed up is contributing to the discussion…


No it is not as close to production as possible. It is fitted with flight test equipment including water barrels, a whole bunch of additional wiring and sensors to conduct all the tests that need to happen. Here is a picture of the inside of it including water barrels and flight test monitoring stations

Image

Image

https://thepointsguy.com/news/boeing-77 ... i-airshow/
 
JohanTally
Posts: 532
Joined: Tue Jun 18, 2019 3:44 am

Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:08 pm

sxf24 wrote:
JohanTally wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

I’ve yet to see a picture of the 777X cockpit. Can you post a link that shows it with weight and payload?

Opus99 shared this in the 777X testing thread and they calculated a roughly 181.4t OEW.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CWgHeC6pPuG ... =copy_link


We’re using a flight test airplane to determine the OEW - and viability - of an entire airplane program? That’s messed up.

Right now this is the best information we have on the outside looking in. The proprietary information provided to airlines who have placed orders I'm sure is much more detailed which is why LH was able to mention the 15% fuel burn improvement. These test aircraft are designed to operate in a similar OEW as a production passenger version especially during NAMS testing.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Sun Nov 28, 2021 3:28 pm

Weatherwatcher1 wrote:
JonesNL wrote:
sxf24 wrote:

We’re using a flight test airplane to determine the OEW - and viability - of an entire airplane program? That’s messed up.

I thought the principle of a test plane is to have it as production like possible plane to get production like test data. The planes will be even sold-off to customers eventually. And it is one of the several sources. Don’t think waiving it off as messed up is contributing to the discussion…


No it is not as close to production as possible. It is fitted with flight test equipment including water barrels, a whole bunch of additional wiring and sensors to conduct all the tests that need to happen. Here is a picture of the inside of it including water barrels and flight test monitoring stations

Image

Image

https://thepointsguy.com/news/boeing-77 ... i-airshow/

Aircraft interiors are BFE (Buyer Furnished Equipment); it's not part of the definition of the basic aircraft (not part of the TC) and requires an STC. So, the ballasts currently inside the plane have nothing to do with the definition of the airplane, it's for test only. Additional wiring and sensors are supplementary specs for testing only.
"Prototype" or test aircraft have been retrofitted to production standard and sold to customers; nothing new.
 
SteelChair
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Mon Dec 13, 2021 11:10 pm

I continue to have doubts about the success of this program. The double whammy of Covid crashing demand and too many young 773ERs out there, to say nothing of competition from the A350 series, places the 777x in serious doubt imho. By the time it finally reaches EIS and a significant number are built, it will be quite dated.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Mon Dec 13, 2021 11:47 pm

SteelChair wrote:
I continue to have doubts about the success of this program. The double whammy of Covid crashing demand and too many young 773ERs out there, to say nothing of competition from the A350 series, places the 777x in serious doubt imho. By the time it finally reaches EIS and a significant number are built, it will be quite dated.


Although the 777X will be a good improvement on the 77W and 77L, it faces a drastically changed competitive set including 787 and A350. Just because the 77W was an excellent competitor 15 years ago does not mean its successor will be in a position of strength today. Mentally, it is easy to make that assumption. But in reality, there is very little strength to the pax 777's position today. Maybe it is more like the 744 (or 748!) than the A380. All great aircraft in their day, but that day soon ends, whether people like it or not.
 
DenverTed
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 2:12 am

SteelChair wrote:
I continue to have doubts about the success of this program. The double whammy of Covid crashing demand and too many young 773ERs out there, to say nothing of competition from the A350 series, places the 777x in serious doubt imho. By the time it finally reaches EIS and a significant number are built, it will be quite dated.

If the EIS is 2024, and the next geared engine debuts on the 787 and A350 in 2034, that gives them ten years. If they deliver 25 a year, that is 250 passenger frames before the next jump in technology is available. Then they probably will build a freighter, so all in all, I don't see either a stunning success or failure for the program at this point.
 
JayinKitsap
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 3:00 am

If air traffic doesn't pick up and return to 2019 levels, there is no worry about any of the wide bodies. Probably all will be economic failures, production below 30 per year for say 5 years will kill the lines.
 
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flee
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 3:22 am

JayinKitsap wrote:
If air traffic doesn't pick up and return to 2019 levels, there is no worry about any of the wide bodies. Probably all will be economic failures, production below 30 per year for say 5 years will kill the lines.

The B777X seems to parallel the A380 with its delayed EIS. However, unlike the A380, it has the latest generation engines and carbon wings. It should be technically competitive with the previous generation B787 and A350 in terms of CASK/CASM. However, it will probably share the A380's problem for airlines - will they be able to fill the plane on their flights.

With the Covid-19 pandemic still ongoing, forecasting demand for airliners even for the next year is going to be difficult and, at best, with a low confidence level. Although there is the possibility of a freighter version, this will have to compete with the A350F. Furthermore, the cargo airlines have a large number of newish B777F and B748F. Additionally there is the B77W and A330 P2F lines coming on stream. If Boeing is unable to increase the B777X backlog in meaningful numbers, then the programme will be set for an early end.
 
morrisond
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:21 pm

flee wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
If air traffic doesn't pick up and return to 2019 levels, there is no worry about any of the wide bodies. Probably all will be economic failures, production below 30 per year for say 5 years will kill the lines.

The B777X seems to parallel the A380 with its delayed EIS. However, unlike the A380, it has the latest generation engines and carbon wings. It should be technically competitive with the previous generation B787 and A350 in terms of CASK/CASM. However, it will probably share the A380's problem for airlines - will they be able to fill the plane on their flights.

With the Covid-19 pandemic still ongoing, forecasting demand for airliners even for the next year is going to be difficult and, at best, with a low confidence level. Although there is the possibility of a freighter version, this will have to compete with the A350F. Furthermore, the cargo airlines have a large number of newish B777F and B748F. Additionally there is the B77W and A330 P2F lines coming on stream. If Boeing is unable to increase the B777X backlog in meaningful numbers, then the programme will be set for an early end.


There is a common misconception that the -9 is significantly larger than the 77W. There is a marginal difference in size, it's less than 10% larger. It's not like the 380 vs 77W with the 380 being a good 50% larger.

Pre-Covid - Airlines had no issues filling 800+ 77W's.

Will it get to the 1,000+ frames of 77W and 77F. Of course not - but with 300ish in the backlog already and an 777xF coming it's not that hard to see them get to 500+. As a quasi derivative that's not too bad. Given that they have also written off a lot of the development costs it should eventually generate cash. I suspect it will still be produced after 2030 but never at historic 77w peak line rates. It may get up to 4 per month which seems to be reasonable.

As always I still say they should have just done an XL version of the 787 with new wingbox/wing/gear in longer lengths. That could have made EIS targets a lot easier than this creation and probably have been significantly lighter for similar capacity.
 
Noshow
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:27 pm

I think what they should have done is build the entire plane new not just the wing. That would have made the life of the A350 much harder.
 
Opus99
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:33 pm

Noshow wrote:
I think what they should have done is build the entire plane new not just the wing. That would have made the life of the A350 much harder.

It won’t have been worth it at the time. Especially if we are looking at from a perspective of replacing 300ER business. Where there’s 787, 350. Unless you’re suggesting they built their own version of the 350. But then you have the 87 which grew into a quite capable aircraft. Limiting their own portfolio even more. I wonder what the outcome would’ve been if Boeing had decided they won’t go higher than the -10 expect maybe for cargo reasons. And maybe just beefed up the -10 to give it the range it needs?
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:37 pm

morrisond wrote:
flee wrote:
JayinKitsap wrote:
If air traffic doesn't pick up and return to 2019 levels, there is no worry about any of the wide bodies. Probably all will be economic failures, production below 30 per year for say 5 years will kill the lines.

The B777X seems to parallel the A380 with its delayed EIS. However, unlike the A380, it has the latest generation engines and carbon wings. It should be technically competitive with the previous generation B787 and A350 in terms of CASK/CASM. However, it will probably share the A380's problem for airlines - will they be able to fill the plane on their flights.

With the Covid-19 pandemic still ongoing, forecasting demand for airliners even for the next year is going to be difficult and, at best, with a low confidence level. Although there is the possibility of a freighter version, this will have to compete with the A350F. Furthermore, the cargo airlines have a large number of newish B777F and B748F. Additionally there is the B77W and A330 P2F lines coming on stream. If Boeing is unable to increase the B777X backlog in meaningful numbers, then the programme will be set for an early end.


There is a common misconception that the -9 is significantly larger than the 77W. There is a marginal difference in size, it's less than 10% larger. It's not like the 380 vs 77W with the 380 being a good 50% larger.

Pre-Covid - Airlines had no issues filling 800+ 77W's.

Will it get to the 1,000+ frames of 77W and 77F. Of course not - but with 300ish in the backlog already and an 777xF coming it's not that hard to see them get to 500+. As a quasi derivative that's not too bad. Given that they have also written off a lot of the development costs it should eventually generate cash. I suspect it will still be produced after 2030 but never at historic 77w peak line rates. It may get up to 4 per month which seems to be reasonable.

As always I still say they should have just done an XL version of the 787 with new wingbox/wing/gear in longer lengths. That could have made EIS targets a lot easier than this creation and probably have been significantly lighter for similar capacity.

I think Boeings plan B will be to beef up the -10 with what they can now. So like MTOW increase and engine PIP to extend its range capabilities. Which is the rumour of course. An XL would be very good looking though. I was once against this idea but given the position Boeing was in at the time. They knew the 87 quite well. They could’ve done it. Do you think an XL would’ve weighed less than a 35K? Probably tbh and also what seating capacity would be reasonable?
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 1:41 pm

Brilliant how Boeing can just "write off" the development cost, and "Hey Presto" we have an profitable airplane!

Does anyone have an idea how much the costs are? Last I recall they took a charge of $6.5B earlier this year. With EIS delay, those development costs must be big.

Coupled with the 787 issues unlikely to pay it all back...oh wait..this is Boeing.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 2:34 pm

morrisond wrote:
There is a common misconception that the -9 is significantly larger than the 77W. There is a marginal difference in size, it's less than 10% larger. It's not like the 380 vs 77W with the 380 being a good 50% larger.

Pre-Covid - Airlines had no issues filling 800+ 77W's.

Will it get to the 1,000+ frames of 77W and 77F. Of course not - but with 300ish in the backlog already and an 777xF coming it's not that hard to see them get to 500+. As a quasi derivative that's not too bad. Given that they have also written off a lot of the development costs it should eventually generate cash. I suspect it will still be produced after 2030 but never at historic 77w peak line rates. It may get up to 4 per month which seems to be reasonable.

As always I still say they should have just done an XL version of the 787 with new wingbox/wing/gear in longer lengths. That could have made EIS targets a lot easier than this creation and probably have been significantly lighter for similar capacity.

One of the strengths of the B77W is its large cargo carrying capacity. It does not need to fill the plane to make money as belly freight will bring in valuable revenue. The -9 will have the same MTOW of the B77W and this means that the amount of freight it can carry may not optimal. So making a profit from this plane will require some careful commercial decisions from the airline.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 2:36 pm

flee wrote:
morrisond wrote:
There is a common misconception that the -9 is significantly larger than the 77W. There is a marginal difference in size, it's less than 10% larger. It's not like the 380 vs 77W with the 380 being a good 50% larger.

Pre-Covid - Airlines had no issues filling 800+ 77W's.

Will it get to the 1,000+ frames of 77W and 77F. Of course not - but with 300ish in the backlog already and an 777xF coming it's not that hard to see them get to 500+. As a quasi derivative that's not too bad. Given that they have also written off a lot of the development costs it should eventually generate cash. I suspect it will still be produced after 2030 but never at historic 77w peak line rates. It may get up to 4 per month which seems to be reasonable.

As always I still say they should have just done an XL version of the 787 with new wingbox/wing/gear in longer lengths. That could have made EIS targets a lot easier than this creation and probably have been significantly lighter for similar capacity.

One of the strengths of the B77W is its large cargo carrying capacity. It does not need to fill the plane to make money as belly freight will bring in valuable revenue. The -9 will have the same MTOW of the B77W and this means that the amount of freight it can carry may not optimal. So making a profit from this plane will require some careful commercial decisions from the airline.

But much larger volume. And as many have eluded to, belly freight volumes out first in most cases. Especially in the age of e commerce. I may be wrong. It will still have the most feight volume of any passenger aircraft

With united the 787-10 has a higher certified cargo load weight than the 77W
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 3:26 pm

Scotron12 wrote:
Brilliant how Boeing can just "write off" the development cost, and "Hey Presto" we have an profitable airplane!

Does anyone have an idea how much the costs are? Last I recall they took a charge of $6.5B earlier this year. With EIS delay, those development costs must be big.

Coupled with the 787 issues unlikely to pay it all back...oh wait..this is Boeing.


Given that "almost" all the costs have already probably been sunk - all that really matters going forward in respect to whether or not the program continues is whether or not it costs less to produce them than what they sell them for. Plus you can't ignore what they will make on parts and service. Over the life of an 500 frame program that can be a lot of money.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 3:44 pm

flee wrote:
morrisond wrote:
There is a common misconception that the -9 is significantly larger than the 77W. There is a marginal difference in size, it's less than 10% larger. It's not like the 380 vs 77W with the 380 being a good 50% larger.

Pre-Covid - Airlines had no issues filling 800+ 77W's.

Will it get to the 1,000+ frames of 77W and 77F. Of course not - but with 300ish in the backlog already and an 777xF coming it's not that hard to see them get to 500+. As a quasi derivative that's not too bad. Given that they have also written off a lot of the development costs it should eventually generate cash. I suspect it will still be produced after 2030 but never at historic 77w peak line rates. It may get up to 4 per month which seems to be reasonable.

As always I still say they should have just done an XL version of the 787 with new wingbox/wing/gear in longer lengths. That could have made EIS targets a lot easier than this creation and probably have been significantly lighter for similar capacity.

One of the strengths of the B77W is its large cargo carrying capacity. It does not need to fill the plane to make money as belly freight will bring in valuable revenue. The -9 will have the same MTOW of the B77W and this means that the amount of freight it can carry may not optimal. So making a profit from this plane will require some careful commercial decisions from the airline.


You forget that on the same route it will burn less fuel. The amount of cargo they are able to take may not be that different.

A 70m 787XL-11 (use 787-10 Fuselage barrels with 2M longer wingbox) and 80M 787XL-12 could have carried significant belly cargo and with the -12 more (at least by Volume). An 80M 787-12 would have room for about 15 more rows than 787-10 and have very similar seating capacity to an 777-9.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 3:54 pm

SteelChair wrote:
I continue to have doubts about the success of this program. The double whammy of Covid crashing demand and too many young 773ERs out there, to say nothing of competition from the A350 series, places the 777x in serious doubt imho. By the time it finally reaches EIS and a significant number are built, it will be quite dated.

Dated? As John Leahy will tell anyone who will listen, the A380 engines weren't state of the art at the time of announcement nor EIS, yet 777X's will be. The wings will be state of the art and designed for this aircraft, not some successor trying to carry 100..250 more passengers in the future. The systems are from 787 so also state of the art with room for growth compared to 90s era 777 "classic". The fuse is widened so the "default" ten across in Y will be a bit more acceptable.

LCDFlight wrote:
Although the 777X will be a good improvement on the 77W and 77L, it faces a drastically changed competitive set including 787 and A350. Just because the 77W was an excellent competitor 15 years ago does not mean its successor will be in a position of strength today. Mentally, it is easy to make that assumption. But in reality, there is very little strength to the pax 777's position today. Maybe it is more like the 744 (or 748!) than the A380. All great aircraft in their day, but that day soon ends, whether people like it or not.

The competition was known during the launch phase. 787 was already in volume production, A350 was soon to be. It's not like there is some big surprise coming out of nowhere. There are lots of 77W to replace out there. 77X's story will be written later in this decade and into the next one, when covid is a fading memory.

Noshow wrote:
I think what they should have done is build the entire plane new not just the wing. That would have made the life of the A350 much harder.

I can only imagine what delays the program would be facing if FAA was crawling up every orifice of a clean sheet program. It's already bad enough with a simple derivative like MAX-7 which seems unlikely to be out in 2021 per earlier predictions.

morrisond wrote:
You forget that on the same route it will burn less fuel. The amount of cargo they are able to take may not be that different.

Therefore making more money... 77Fs will need replacing later in the decade and into next, and 77XF will take a lot of that business, IMO.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 4:49 pm

Revelation wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
I continue to have doubts about the success of this program. The double whammy of Covid crashing demand and too many young 773ERs out there, to say nothing of competition from the A350 series, places the 777x in serious doubt imho. By the time it finally reaches EIS and a significant number are built, it will be quite dated.

Dated? As John Leahy will tell anyone who will listen, the A380 engines weren't state of the art at the time of announcement nor EIS, yet 777X's will be. The wings will be state of the art and designed for this aircraft, not some successor trying to carry 100..250 more passengers in the future. The systems are from 787 so also state of the art with room for growth compared to 90s era 777 "classic". The fuse is widened so the "default" ten across in Y will be a bit more acceptable.

LCDFlight wrote:
Although the 777X will be a good improvement on the 77W and 77L, it faces a drastically changed competitive set including 787 and A350. Just because the 77W was an excellent competitor 15 years ago does not mean its successor will be in a position of strength today. Mentally, it is easy to make that assumption. But in reality, there is very little strength to the pax 777's position today. Maybe it is more like the 744 (or 748!) than the A380. All great aircraft in their day, but that day soon ends, whether people like it or not.

The competition was known during the launch phase. 787 was already in volume production, A350 was soon to be. It's not like there is some big surprise coming out of nowhere. There are lots of 77W to replace out there. 77X's story will be written later in this decade and into the next one, when covid is a fading memory.

Noshow wrote:
I think what they should have done is build the entire plane new not just the wing. That would have made the life of the A350 much harder.

I can only imagine what delays the program would be facing if FAA was crawling up every orifice of a clean sheet program. It's already bad enough with a simple derivative like MAX-7 which seems unlikely to be out in 2021 per earlier predictions.

morrisond wrote:
You forget that on the same route it will burn less fuel. The amount of cargo they are able to take may not be that different.

Therefore making more money... 77Fs will need replacing later in the decade and into next, and 77XF will take a lot of that business, IMO.


I wish Boeing well, and yes they knew the competitor was A350 when they launched. But like the 748, they launched more based on past dominance of the 77W versus A340 and 747 than a reasonable expectation of future dominance versus high tech twins. I hope I am wrong. But the ask is immensely more difficult now.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 4:53 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Revelation wrote:
SteelChair wrote:
I continue to have doubts about the success of this program. The double whammy of Covid crashing demand and too many young 773ERs out there, to say nothing of competition from the A350 series, places the 777x in serious doubt imho. By the time it finally reaches EIS and a significant number are built, it will be quite dated.

Dated? As John Leahy will tell anyone who will listen, the A380 engines weren't state of the art at the time of announcement nor EIS, yet 777X's will be. The wings will be state of the art and designed for this aircraft, not some successor trying to carry 100..250 more passengers in the future. The systems are from 787 so also state of the art with room for growth compared to 90s era 777 "classic". The fuse is widened so the "default" ten across in Y will be a bit more acceptable.

LCDFlight wrote:
Although the 777X will be a good improvement on the 77W and 77L, it faces a drastically changed competitive set including 787 and A350. Just because the 77W was an excellent competitor 15 years ago does not mean its successor will be in a position of strength today. Mentally, it is easy to make that assumption. But in reality, there is very little strength to the pax 777's position today. Maybe it is more like the 744 (or 748!) than the A380. All great aircraft in their day, but that day soon ends, whether people like it or not.

The competition was known during the launch phase. 787 was already in volume production, A350 was soon to be. It's not like there is some big surprise coming out of nowhere. There are lots of 77W to replace out there. 77X's story will be written later in this decade and into the next one, when covid is a fading memory.

Noshow wrote:
I think what they should have done is build the entire plane new not just the wing. That would have made the life of the A350 much harder.

I can only imagine what delays the program would be facing if FAA was crawling up every orifice of a clean sheet program. It's already bad enough with a simple derivative like MAX-7 which seems unlikely to be out in 2021 per earlier predictions.

morrisond wrote:
You forget that on the same route it will burn less fuel. The amount of cargo they are able to take may not be that different.

Therefore making more money... 77Fs will need replacing later in the decade and into next, and 77XF will take a lot of that business, IMO.


I wish Boeing well, and yes they knew the competitor was A350 when they launched. But like the 748, they launched more based on past dominance of the 77W versus A340 and 747 than a reasonable expectation of future dominance versus high tech twins. I hope I am wrong. But the ask is immensely more difficult now.

Past dominance of the 77W? I don’t think that’s what they launch the 748 on. The 77W was no where near its peak when 748 was launched. They launched 748 because they just wanted a dog in that VVLA flight and it made a brilliant freighter. Probably why the forget came first.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 4:53 pm

The last rounds of warm ups didn't work so well as the round of warm ups before. 747-8, 737 MAX and 777X. Way better: 747-400, 737 NG and 777-300ER. Maybe Boeing felt burned after the initial 787 issues. But they should have continued along this route as had been planned. Now we still need new aircraft meaning big investments in times of not that much cash.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:17 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
I wish Boeing well, and yes they knew the competitor was A350 when they launched. But like the 748, they launched more based on past dominance of the 77W versus A340 and 747 than a reasonable expectation of future dominance versus high tech twins. I hope I am wrong. But the ask is immensely more difficult now.

I think the expectations were more realistic than most here project. They already had years of selling the 787 into the market and understood A350's position in the market quite well. They did not and could not expect a 1:1 replacement of 77W by 779, regardless of anything the sales force was willing to suggest. It was not feasible or plausible for 779 to replace 77W 1;1 in marketplace with 787 and A350 in it.

Noshow wrote:
The last rounds of warm ups didn't work so well as the round of warm ups before. 747-8, 737 MAX and 777X. Way better: 747-400, 737 NG and 777-300ER. Maybe Boeing felt burned after the initial 787 issues. But they should have continued along this route as had been planned. Now we still need new aircraft meaning big investments in times of not that much cash.

Continuing along the old path would have meant trying to sell 737NG against A32xNEO till right about now, and right about now we'd be seeing NSA EIS and in production at a slow ramp up volume losing money on each frame. No one back in 2013-4 could foresee the MAX crisis. Like it or not, Boeing made the right business decision back then, it was engineering and program management that let the side down.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:22 pm

Opus99 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Dated? As John Leahy will tell anyone who will listen, the A380 engines weren't state of the art at the time of announcement nor EIS, yet 777X's will be. The wings will be state of the art and designed for this aircraft, not some successor trying to carry 100..250 more passengers in the future. The systems are from 787 so also state of the art with room for growth compared to 90s era 777 "classic". The fuse is widened so the "default" ten across in Y will be a bit more acceptable.


The competition was known during the launch phase. 787 was already in volume production, A350 was soon to be. It's not like there is some big surprise coming out of nowhere. There are lots of 77W to replace out there. 77X's story will be written later in this decade and into the next one, when covid is a fading memory.


I can only imagine what delays the program would be facing if FAA was crawling up every orifice of a clean sheet program. It's already bad enough with a simple derivative like MAX-7 which seems unlikely to be out in 2021 per earlier predictions.


Therefore making more money... 77Fs will need replacing later in the decade and into next, and 77XF will take a lot of that business, IMO.


I wish Boeing well, and yes they knew the competitor was A350 when they launched. But like the 748, they launched more based on past dominance of the 77W versus A340 and 747 than a reasonable expectation of future dominance versus high tech twins. I hope I am wrong. But the ask is immensely more difficult now.

Past dominance of the 77W? I don’t think that’s what they launch the 748 on. The 77W was no where near its peak when 748 was launched. They launched 748 because they just wanted a dog in that VVLA flight and it made a brilliant freighter. Probably why the forget came first.


Sorry maybe my point was not important but I was trying to say the 748 was launched based on the success of the 744 twenty years prior. The 744 was of course a legend. But the 748 could not compete well against ITS contemporary products. That is what matters. It is a bit obvious. But i Am stirring the pot by saying maybe the 777X is being launched the same way the 748 was, primarily based on pst glories and without enough consideration of current realities.

post-covid, I do expect the 777X to play a good role. Will it rival the 77W, imo no. The 789 and A350 are just too good.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:35 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

I wish Boeing well, and yes they knew the competitor was A350 when they launched. But like the 748, they launched more based on past dominance of the 77W versus A340 and 747 than a reasonable expectation of future dominance versus high tech twins. I hope I am wrong. But the ask is immensely more difficult now.

Past dominance of the 77W? I don’t think that’s what they launch the 748 on. The 77W was no where near its peak when 748 was launched. They launched 748 because they just wanted a dog in that VVLA flight and it made a brilliant freighter. Probably why the forget came first.


Sorry maybe my point was not important but I was trying to say the 748 was launched based on the success of the 744 twenty years prior. The 744 was of course a legend. But the 748 could not compete well against ITS contemporary products. That is what matters. It is a bit obvious. But i Am stirring the pot by saying maybe the 777X is being launched the same way the 748 was, primarily based on pst glories and without enough consideration of current realities.

post-covid, I do expect the 777X to play a good role. Will it rival the 77W, imo no. The 789 and A350 are just too good.


I disagree with you about the 748 launch. Boeing only launched it serve the freight market and put pressure on the A380 and that’s it. Hence why the 748F rolled out first and continues to roll out to this day. It wasn’t launched based on past success of the 744. Boeing already knew that the ship sailed on the VLA market (hence launch of the 787) and their money maker was the 777 at the time of the launch.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:49 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

I wish Boeing well, and yes they knew the competitor was A350 when they launched. But like the 748, they launched more based on past dominance of the 77W versus A340 and 747 than a reasonable expectation of future dominance versus high tech twins. I hope I am wrong. But the ask is immensely more difficult now.

Past dominance of the 77W? I don’t think that’s what they launch the 748 on. The 77W was no where near its peak when 748 was launched. They launched 748 because they just wanted a dog in that VVLA flight and it made a brilliant freighter. Probably why the forget came first.


Sorry maybe my point was not important but I was trying to say the 748 was launched based on the success of the 744 twenty years prior. The 744 was of course a legend. But the 748 could not compete well against ITS contemporary products. That is what matters. It is a bit obvious. But i Am stirring the pot by saying maybe the 777X is being launched the same way the 748 was, primarily based on pst glories and without enough consideration of current realities.

post-covid, I do expect the 777X to play a good role. Will it rival the 77W, imo no. The 789 and A350 are just too good.

So many errors in my first post. Apologies. I still think it was to have a dog in the VVLA fight and because it made an excellent freighter. The 300ER basically swallowed the 748i and 380 and Boeing knew that. Hence the point to point marketing on the 787 and why they launched it. They knew the market was there and why they were/still are hell bent on NMA. 777X is niche and will make a brilliant aircraft for those who decide to and can use it and I think that market is larger than the 380s market irrespective of the variety in the market today. X freighter will launch imminently, followed by 797 but only after X and 737-10 has been certified. So maybe the next Dubai airshow? November 2023 might we see 797/NMA come into play and I think Boeing has an opportunity there to once again shake up the market. Sorry for drifting off topic
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 5:53 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:

I wish Boeing well, and yes they knew the competitor was A350 when they launched. But like the 748, they launched more based on past dominance of the 77W versus A340 and 747 than a reasonable expectation of future dominance versus high tech twins. I hope I am wrong. But the ask is immensely more difficult now.

Past dominance of the 77W? I don’t think that’s what they launch the 748 on. The 77W was no where near its peak when 748 was launched. They launched 748 because they just wanted a dog in that VVLA flight and it made a brilliant freighter. Probably why the forget came first.


Sorry maybe my point was not important but I was trying to say the 748 was launched based on the success of the 744 twenty years prior. The 744 was of course a legend. But the 748 could not compete well against ITS contemporary products. That is what matters. It is a bit obvious. But i Am stirring the pot by saying maybe the 777X is being launched the same way the 748 was, primarily based on pst glories and without enough consideration of current realities.

post-covid, I do expect the 777X to play a good role. Will it rival the 77W, imo no. The 789 and A350 are just too good.


The 747-8 was launched primarily to address the problem of noise restrictions at London Heathrow. LHR bans night time operations for aircraft greater that QC2. The 747-400 is a QC4 aircraft.

London Heathrow Airport prohibits aircraft noisier than QC/2 to operate at night. As this is more stringent than the ICAO's Chapter 4 limits, QC/2 has become a de facto aircraft noise standard.
-wikipedia


The 747-8 is a QC1 aircraft on approach and a QC2 aircraft on takeoff. If one is a freight operator, one needs the flexibility of 24 hour operations, especially for perishable items. It does appear that the size of the market for the passenger variant was misjudged.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 6:52 pm

IIRC the 747-8 was meant to sell 75 percent passenger versions and only 25 percent freighters.
 
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 7:15 pm

Upon reflection, the argument is timed poorly. The fate of the A380 is sealed, the fate of the 77X is yet to be determined. A380 is not predictive of 77X, the past is not prologue, circumstances are different. If you really want to say the past is predictive then I think Boeing is fine with that, selling 250 777X on top of the 1700 or so "classics" would be a nice icing on the cake for a derivative program whose R&D is already largely written off. Given they already have 320 orders even before announcing a freighter means they're already gone past A380 in sales anyway. The suggestion that 77X would have similar sales to the classic models is not now plausible nor was it ever plausible, IMO. The marketplace is now different, that was well understood even before 77X was launched.
 
smartplane
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:35 pm

morrisond wrote:
Scotron12 wrote:
Brilliant how Boeing can just "write off" the development cost, and "Hey Presto" we have an profitable airplane!

Does anyone have an idea how much the costs are? Last I recall they took a charge of $6.5B earlier this year. With EIS delay, those development costs must be big.

Coupled with the 787 issues unlikely to pay it all back...oh wait..this is Boeing.


Given that "almost" all the costs have already probably been sunk - all that really matters going forward in respect to whether or not the program continues is whether or not it costs less to produce them than what they sell them for. Plus you can't ignore what they will make on parts and service. Over the life of an 500 frame program that can be a lot of money.

A very large cost, which grows bigger by the quarter, is compensation, which will either flow back into x re-orders (effectively launch prices for a decade after entering service), or be discounted to other models, or cashed up at a massive discount.

Boeing are currently undertaking a charm offensive with the finance industry, including leasing companies, but unless mind blowing performance figures are announced, Boeing will likely end up being the biggest direct and indirect financier of the X, the latter via buybacks.

Surely a point where the Board become uncomfortable with X contingent liabilities (compensation), low unit sale price, model proliferation development costs, buybacks, and ownership exposure? And GE too, as Boeing must be asking them to share the load? 8 gone, and any F 9 based?
 
Noshow
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:41 pm

There is the huge new composite wing center at Everett. What else aside from 777X wings might be built there now that the 787 went exclusively to Charleston? Is there any new high volume CFRP program coming up in WA?
 
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ssteve
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 9:50 pm

787 wings come from Japan, not CHS...
 
Noshow
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Re: 777X – VLA of the Future or another “White Elephant” A380

Tue Dec 14, 2021 10:03 pm

I know. Only 777X wings come from the CWS. Why is it sized so big then?
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