Transat and Westjet agree to codeshare on transatlantic flights, seeking regulatory approval next year. Had a feeling this could happen after the AC deal fell through.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/air-transat ... -1.1684430

I fail to see what Transat is getting out of this.

Westjet is nobody in Montreal, so not much of a threat there (or help with feed for that matter). On the other hand, Westjet is in the process of injecting lots of competition to Transat's TATL and core Caribbean leisure routes out of Toronto.

BangersAndMash wrote:

I fail to see what Transat is getting out of this.

Westjet is nobody in Montreal, so not much of a threat there (or help with feed for that matter). On the other hand, Westjet is in the process of injecting lots of competition to Transat's TATL and core Caribbean leisure routes out of Toronto.

The pandemic killed travel demand. When TS resumed operations earlier this year, they realised that having a go at it alone was the least ideal scenario. They needed some partners to provide feed. WS is such a partner now.

WS probably agreed to the codeshare because it benefits them in the short term as well. Transatlantic travel is recovering much faster than the rest, and with WS's limited 787s, this was the best way for them to increase their presence in that market in the short term.

This is a smart move for both TS and WS.

777luver wrote:

Transat and Westjet agree to codeshare on transatlantic flights, seeking regulatory approval next year. Had a feeling this could happen after the AC deal fell through.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/air-transat ... -1.1684430

I wouldn't read too much into this past the codeshare.

if WS truly wanted to takeover TS, I don't think they would have partnered with a codeshare first. You're essentially helping TS stay alive by filling their planes to Europe from YYZ/YUL, and therefore increasing their revenues, and also increasing competition for yourself across the Atlantic. If you want to takeover an airline, it's about "divide and conquer". Leave TS alone, so they suffer, and then come in with the lowest bid possible when they are the most vulnerable. The fact they aren't doing that tells me they don't want TS, at least not yet.

Thenoflyzone wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

I fail to see what Transat is getting out of this.

Westjet is nobody in Montreal, so not much of a threat there (or help with feed for that matter). On the other hand, Westjet is in the process of injecting lots of competition to Transat's TATL and core Caribbean leisure routes out of Toronto.

The pandemic killed travel demand. When TS resumed operations earlier this year, they realised that having a go at it alone was the least ideal scenario. They needed some partners to provide feed. WS is such a partner now.

WS probably agreed to the codeshare because it benefits them in the short term as well. Transatlantic travel is recovering much faster than the rest, and with WS's limited 787s, this was the best way for them to increase their presence in that market in the short term.

This is a smart move for both TS and WS.

777luver wrote:

Transat and Westjet agree to codeshare on transatlantic flights, seeking regulatory approval next year. Had a feeling this could happen after the AC deal fell through.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/air-transat ... -1.1684430

I wouldn't read too much into this past the codeshare.

if WS truly wanted to takeover TS, I don't think they would have partnered with a codeshare first. You're essentially helping TS stay alive by filling their planes to Europe from YYZ/YUL, and therefore increasing their revenues, and also increasing competition for yourself across the Atlantic. If you want to takeover an airline, it's about "divide and conquer". Leave TS alone, so they suffer, and then come in with the lowest bid possible when they are the most vulnerable. The fact they aren't doing that tells me they don't want TS, at least not yet.

Ahh yes but WS is certainly making revenue from codesharing on TS metal transatlantic.

BangersAndMash wrote:

I fail to see what Transat is getting out of this.

Westjet is nobody in Montreal, so not much of a threat there (or help with feed for that matter). On the other hand, Westjet is in the process of injecting lots of competition to Transat's TATL and core Caribbean leisure routes out of Toronto.

They , TS , gain the lion share access to WS domestic network reach.

cirrusdragoon wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

I fail to see what Transat is getting out of this.

Westjet is nobody in Montreal, so not much of a threat there (or help with feed for that matter). On the other hand, Westjet is in the process of injecting lots of competition to Transat's TATL and core Caribbean leisure routes out of Toronto.

They , TS , gain the lion share access to WS domestic network reach.

Thenoflyzone wrote:

The pandemic killed travel demand. When TS resumed operations earlier this year, they realised that having a go at it alone was the least ideal scenario. They needed some partners to provide feed. WS is such a partner now.

Out of Toronto, maybe. But WS has neither network nor ff base in Montreal.

And even in Toronto, is WS really going to feed TS while it is launching many of the same routes at the same time? Colour me sceptical.

TS needs friends for sure, but I'm not sure WS is the kind of friend they need.

BangersAndMash wrote:

And even in Toronto, is WS really going to feed TS while it is launching many of the same routes at the same time? Colour me sceptical.

TS needs friends for sure, but I'm not sure WS is the kind of friend they need.

I was thinking the same. It was many years ago that using excess winter capacity, Westjet operated many Caribbean routes for Transat on a wet lease basis. During that time, Westjet learned where, why and how. Once they knew, the contract with Transat was ended ….. and Westjet started their own Caribbean operation, competing with Transat.

I see the same thing happening again. You’d think Transat would be once bitten, twice shy. Or perhaps, with their delicate financial state, they feel they don’t have that option.

CrewBunk wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

And even in Toronto, is WS really going to feed TS while it is launching many of the same routes at the same time? Colour me sceptical.

TS needs friends for sure, but I'm not sure WS is the kind of friend they need.

I was thinking the same. It was many years ago that using excess winter capacity, Westjet operated many Caribbean routes for Transat on a wet lease basis. During that time, Westjet learned where, why and how. Once they knew, the contract with Transat was ended ….. and Westjet started their own Caribbean operation, competing with Transat.

I see the same thing happening again. You’d think Transat would be once bitten, twice shy. Or perhaps, with their delicate financial state, they feel they don’t have that option.

Very true from that management past. Now with Onex , a completely different management running things than when Clive Beddoe was at the helm I predict it will be a different path. My suspicion with this tie up , from WS point of view , lies with the advantage Transat has in Quebec and their european reach out of Quebec. I view this as a tool for WS to increase capacity and build a presence in Quebec .

Wow . I completely did not contemplate something like this occurring . It’s odd , WS is in bed with KL/AF and trying to form a JV with them.

I have to wonder the same. Maybe for Westjet to better tap into the french Canadian market, perhaps launching overseas flights with an already entrenched Quebec airline like Transat, is the right move in order to justify creating more connections into Quebec from the west of Canada.

Time will certainly tell, everything is a risk as always. But I am glad Transat and Westjet are codesharing , it’s nice to see two Canadian carriers doing this! I have to admit it is good to see Westjet taking bigger diversification moves.

This certainly seems to be mostly WS trying to take advantage of the rebounding Translatlantic demand when they'll only have at most ten 787's. I don't think WS will ever merge or cooperate much more with Air Transat.

IceCream wrote:

This certainly seems to be mostly WS trying to take advantage of the rebounding Translatlantic demand when they'll only have at most ten 787's. I don't think WS will ever merge or cooperate much more with Air Transat.

It has long been my personal belief that the AC-Transat merger that didn't happen was a proactive move on AC's part to take TS off the board, so that WS could not get their hands on them. The AC-TS merger was originally announced shortly after the ONEX-WestJet purchase. My guess is that Air Canada management thought they'd be able to sneak in a quick one in terms of approvals (tit for tat, the govt throwing Canada West and Quebec a bone almost simultaneously), keeping the Transat widebody fleet & European flights away from WS, who at the time was flush with ONEX $.

In some ways, WestJet and Air Transat would be ideal merger partners. Each is strong where the other is marginal. WJ has a robust domestic network, hits most of the major US destinations, but lags in the Caribbean, Mexico, and Europe, and has never experienced much success in Quebec. Transat obviously is strong in La Belle Province....both Montreal and Quebec City, has an amazing slate of Caribbean, Central America and Mexico destinations, plus a strong European presence. You'd think combining the two would create a greater whole.

I'm curious what this will lead to. In previous summers, TS has run a limited domestic summer schedule, mostly with narrowbodies, focused mainly on feeding their YYZ-Europe flights from large Canada West cities (YVR, YYC, YEG). TS will now get the feed from WestJet, and I'm guessing from a much bigger slate of cities than they could do themselves. But as others have pointed out, WS will get the data on who is connecting where, and that can be weaponized against TS in terms of future European expansion. UNLESS they plan for greater cooperation in the future, those numbers are going to be dangerous in WestJet's hands.

As much as we armchair analysts like to comment on the likelihood of more tie-ups between WestJet and Air Transat....there are some very fundamental differences between the two. Transat is deeply embedded as a champion of Quebec business, while WS represents laid back, folksy Canada West. I can only imagine how putting their executives in the same room would go over ..... although more so in the past. A look at the WestJet managerial tree reveals Clive and the old guard is gone, a significant number of newer folks have arrived, many with international experience, and presumably less embedded in the previous ways of doing things. Air Transat has no doubt been struggling over COVID times, and are looking to stabilize the operation. Could things flourish between the two, in the future? Definitely worth watching.

Hopefully my memory isn't playing with me. But didn't Westjet and Transat get in bed with each other years ago where Westjet learned the tricks of the trade for down south flying from Transat, and then ventured on its own? Maybe I'm was dreaming....

crosscheckyyz wrote:

Hopefully my memory isn't playing with me. But didn't Westjet and Transat get in bed with each other years ago where Westjet learned the tricks of the trade for down south flying from Transat, and then ventured on its own? Maybe I'm was dreaming....

This was was brought up already , just a few posts up

IceCream wrote:

This certainly seems to be mostly WS trying to take advantage of the rebounding Translatlantic demand when they'll only have at most ten 787's. I don't think WS will ever merge or cooperate much more with Air Transat.

Not even ten, they have only six on property. They only have eight European destinations. Prior to covid that had four 767s to supplement their 787s. So it will be interesting to see how they will deploy their 787s across the Atlantic in the coming months

BangersAndMash wrote:

I fail to see what Transat is getting out of this.

Westjet is nobody in Montreal, so not much of a threat there (or help with feed for that matter). On the other hand, Westjet is in the process of injecting lots of competition to Transat's TATL and core Caribbean leisure routes out of Toronto.

Air Transat has typically had a pretty robust TATL destination set, of the scope WestJet as a west-focused and hubbed carrier could never duplicate. This should be easy money for both carriers -- very low marginal cost.

Aresxerexade wrote:

crosscheckyyz wrote:

Hopefully my memory isn't playing with me. But didn't Westjet and Transat get in bed with each other years ago where Westjet learned the tricks of the trade for down south flying from Transat, and then ventured on its own? Maybe I'm was dreaming....

This was was brought up already , just a few posts up

ostie! how did I miss that? but hopefully it wont happen again and TS loses out.

MIflyer12 wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

I fail to see what Transat is getting out of this.

Westjet is nobody in Montreal, so not much of a threat there (or help with feed for that matter). On the other hand, Westjet is in the process of injecting lots of competition to Transat's TATL and core Caribbean leisure routes out of Toronto.

Air Transat has typically had a pretty robust TATL destination set, of the scope WestJet as a west-focused and hubbed carrier could never duplicate. This should be easy money for both carriers -- very low marginal cost.

Have a look at what WS is launching out of YYZ for next summer. Your view of the carriers and the market is out of date.

This is a very interesting arrangement and I never saw it coming. I definitely agree with an earlier post that this is not likely a precursor to a WS/Onex takeover, at least in the short term. If that were the case, they would attempt to choke TS and offer the lowest bid as a lifeline. It might be that WS wants to take on TS, but they are presently unable to apply enough pressure on them with their current size and market share out east. So this may be a similar play to what others have mentioned with how Westjet used the knowledge they gained from flying vacation charters for TS to launch WS Vacations successfully. WS might be playing the long game and setting up for a future assault on TS with the eventual goal of a takeover bid.

Air Transat may be getting the short end of the stick on this deal, but they are in a weak position and I believe that they are gasping at straws trying to find ways to dig themselves out of the hole they’re in. They no longer benefit from being a vertically integrated company as they are now focusing on being solely an airline and they’ve also ditched their entire western Canada operation. From this codeshare deal, I see a couple of benefits. The first one is increased feed from the west, not just from Calgary and Vancouver. Although leisure travel is bouncing back, it is still weakened and more volatile, so they only stand to benefit from more bums in seats. I think that’s pretty much the main benefit. I see this being short term while they attempt to get back on their feet. This arrangement could potentially allow them some more flexibility to use the 321’s that were used for the western connections to increase frequencies or launch new routes if Westjet is taking care of the western feed, although I find it unlikely that they would put themselves in a vulnerable/dependant position like that. The other benefit might be that they can still maintain some sort of brand recognition out west so they’re not completely forgotten about.

For Westjet, this arrangement will allow them to offer more destinations to their customers, it will help them to fill more seats to YYZ/YUL (potentially allowing for increased frequencies and connections) and to better understand the Canada-Europe market in which they are keen on expanding their market share. They may also benefit from travellers learning that WS is a viable option when travelling to Quebec and this might help them to build a more robust presence and FF base that will hopefully outlast this codeshare, which I believe will be short lived. Westjet’s 787’s are very much suited to leisure markets with their current cabin layout and they are far less dependant on a strong J LF and more so on Y/Y+ volume. With that in mind, TS’s customer base is a strong match to Westjet’s target market and they best take full advantage of this opportunity to learn how to target the customers they want to convert.

INFINITI329 wrote:

IceCream wrote:

This certainly seems to be mostly WS trying to take advantage of the rebounding Translatlantic demand when they'll only have at most ten 787's. I don't think WS will ever merge or cooperate much more with Air Transat.

Not even ten, they have only six on property. They only have eight European destinations. Prior to covid that had four 767s to supplement their 787s. So it will be interesting to see how they will deploy their 787s across the Atlantic in the coming months

Yes, I wonder if the next 4 will end up coming by the summer with all the issues going on.

IceCream wrote:

INFINITI329 wrote:

IceCream wrote:

This certainly seems to be mostly WS trying to take advantage of the rebounding Translatlantic demand when they'll only have at most ten 787's. I don't think WS will ever merge or cooperate much more with Air Transat.

Not even ten, they have only six on property. They only have eight European destinations. Prior to covid that had four 767s to supplement their 787s. So it will be interesting to see how they will deploy their 787s across the Atlantic in the coming months

Yes, I wonder if the next 4 will end up coming by the summer with all the issues going on.

There's at least one 787 that was destined for WestJet sitting in Victorville, CA with no movement after it was ferried from Charleston in August due to the entire 787 production quality debacle.

We should expect Transat to be fully aware that Westjet might (actually, most likely will...) use TATL traveller patterns data against Transat in the future.

That's why I believe the only TATL codeshares will be smaller french language destinations - that Westjet would just never touch anyways, particularly with 787s.

For Paris, Transat probably already achieved critical mass.
But more importantly, the related market data is too critical to share with Westjet. Too much potential damage here.

ExMilitaryEng wrote:

We should expect Transat to be fully aware that Westjet might (actually, most likely will...) use TATL traveller patterns data against Transat in the future.

That's why I believe the only TATL codeshares will be smaller french language destinations, that Westjet would just never touch anyways, particularly with 787s.

For Paris, Transat probably already achieved critical mass.
But more importantly, the related market data is too critical to share with Westjet. Too much potential damage here.

Most of that market data is YUL based. Unless WS plans on basing a few Dreamliners in La Belle Province, I doubt TS is worried much.

There’s minimal risk for TS here. WS wants to grow YYC. TS’s focus is Quebec. The only overlap is YYZ, and both of them already fly to the largest European market from there, the UK. How much data are you really getting that you didn’t have already, and how lucrative is it for WS to pursue said markets out of YYZ? After all, they only have premium heavy dreamliners, especially compared to a 450 seater B77W like AC has or 340+ seater A330s like TS. You can’t compete with that, no matter what kind of data you have.

ExMilitaryEng wrote:

We should expect Transat to be fully aware that Westjet might (actually, most likely will...) use TATL traveller patterns data against Transat in the future.

That's why I believe the only TATL codeshares will be smaller french language destinations - that Westjet would just never touch anyways, particularly with 787s.

For Paris, Transat probably already achieved critical mass.
But more importantly, the related market data is too critical to share with Westjet. Too much potential damage here.

Most airlines already subscribe to and submit passenger data information. Not a ton of secrets out there on traffic, maybe some better fare info.

CrewBunk wrote:

I was thinking the same. It was many years ago that using excess winter capacity, Westjet operated many Caribbean routes for Transat on a wet lease basis. During that time, Westjet learned where, why and how. Once they knew, the contract with Transat was ended ….. and Westjet started their own Caribbean operation, competing with Transat. .

And yet, all these years later, TS is still far superior to WS when it comes to Caribbean ops out of YUL and YYZ. So much for that. Like I said, you can have all the data you want, if you don't have the right strategy or equipment for that market, it won't give you much. At the end of the day, WS couldn't compete with TS or AC on a lot of routes to Florida, Mexico or the Caribbean, simply because they were stuck with 737s when their competition was flying 280 seat 767s or 340 seat A330s.

If anything, Sunwing has been far more successful carving itself a niche down south than WS ever has.

AWNP wrote:

Most airlines already subscribe to and submit passenger data information. Not a ton of secrets out there on traffic, maybe some better fare info.

Exactly.

BangersAndMash wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Air Transat has typically had a pretty robust TATL destination set, of the scope WestJet as a west-focused and hubbed carrier could never duplicate. This should be easy money for both carriers -- very low marginal cost.

Have a look at what WS is launching out of YYZ for next summer. Your view of the carriers and the market is out of date.

Have you?

https://www.transat.com/en-CA/corporate ... ses/124398

WS doesn't even come close to what TS plans to operate to Europe from YYZ next summer. And most of the A330s aren't even reactivated yet.

Wow-10 daily out of YUL and 8 out of YYZ. Good riddance to covid.

Thenoflyzone wrote:

CrewBunk wrote:

I was thinking the same. It was many years ago that using excess winter capacity, Westjet operated many Caribbean routes for Transat on a wet lease basis. During that time, Westjet learned where, why and how. Once they knew, the contract with Transat was ended ….. and Westjet started their own Caribbean operation, competing with Transat. .

And yet, all these years later, TS is still far superior to WS when it comes to Caribbean ops out of YUL and YYZ. So much for that. Like I said, you can have all the data you want, if you don't have the right strategy or equipment for that market, it won't give you much. At the end of the day, WS couldn't compete with TS or AC on a lot of routes to Florida, Mexico or the Caribbean, simply because they were stuck with 737s when their competition was flying 280 seat 767s or 340 seat A330s.

If anything, Sunwing has been far more successful carving itself a niche down south than WS ever has.

Sunwing's niche is their all-inclusive vacation packages; that's their bread and butter. They don't care about losing money on the flights, as long as they can pack people at their resorts, and make money there.

I wonder if this is pointing at an eventual cooperation from a frequently flyer standpoint. Having TS become a part of Westjet rewards would likely be mutually beneficial for both airlines. Having more international flight opportunities for members to earn and burn would increase the attractiveness of the program for a lot of people.

It wasn't even that long ago that TS was supposed to become a part of Aeroplan, when the whole Aimia/AC battle ensued:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/aeropl ... -1.4776062

Thenoflyzone wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

Air Transat has typically had a pretty robust TATL destination set, of the scope WestJet as a west-focused and hubbed carrier could never duplicate. This should be easy money for both carriers -- very low marginal cost.

Have a look at what WS is launching out of YYZ for next summer. Your view of the carriers and the market is out of date.

Have you?

https://www.transat.com/en-CA/corporate ... ses/124398

WS doesn't even come close to what TS plans to operate to Europe from YYZ next summer. And most of the A330s aren't even reactivated yet.

Well let's see, shall we?

Out of YYZ, counting route launches, due to fly next summer:
TS - AMS/ATH/BCN/CDG/DUB/FCO/GLA/LGW/LIS/MAN/SUF/VCE/ZAG
WS - BCN/DUB/EDI/GLA/LGW

All WS routes except EDI are being flown by TS, and it's about a third of TS's route network. I'd say that's a fair bit of overlap.

And you'll find a similar story to the Caribbean.

BangersAndMash wrote:

All WS routes except EDI are being flown by TS, and it's about a third of TS's route network. I'd say that's a fair bit of overlap.

Mlflyer12 said Westjet can't match TS's scope on Transatlantic to Europe. You just proved it. So why are you saying his view of the market is out of date? It isn't.

It doesn't matter if all of WS's European destinations are served by TS. The point is most of TS's destinations to Europe aren't served by WS. It's not "fair bit " of overlap. It's minimal overlap. That's why WS is codesharing with TS. They want to tap into those markets.

If there was a fair bit of overlap on TATL, WS wouldn't codeshare with TS. End of story.

Thenoflyzone wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

All WS routes except EDI are being flown by TS, and it's about a third of TS's route network. I'd say that's a fair bit of overlap.

Mlflyer12 said Westjet can't match TS's scope on Transatlantic to Europe. You just proved it. So why are you saying his view of the market is out of date? It isn't.

It doesn't matter if all of WS's European destinations are served by TS. The point is most of TS's destinations to Europe aren't served by WS. It's not "fair bit " of overlap. It's minimal overlap. That's why WS is codesharing with TS. They want to tap into those markets.

If there was a fair bit of overlap on TATL, WS wouldn't codeshare with TS. End of story.

True. And I doubt WS loses much (if any at all) traffic from people who were going to use their LGW/LHR/CDG/DUB/AMS flights and connect to LIS or wherever. While a lot of people seem to think this is an indication of some sort of a merger this is literally just WS selling some TATL seats on Air Transat to make money.

Thenoflyzone wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

All WS routes except EDI are being flown by TS, and it's about a third of TS's route network. I'd say that's a fair bit of overlap.

Mlflyer12 said Westjet can't match TS's scope on Transatlantic to Europe. You just proved it. So why are you saying his view of the market is out of date? It isn't.

It doesn't matter if all of WS's European destinations are served by TS. The point is most of TS's destinations to Europe aren't served by WS. It's not "fair bit " of overlap. It's minimal overlap. That's why WS is codesharing with TS. They want to tap into those markets.

If there was a fair bit of overlap on TATL, WS wouldn't codeshare with TS. End of story.

If a third of your network is overlapping with a competitor and you think that's minimal, frankly you have a problem.

There was a lot less overlap between the two pre-Covid. That was my point to MIflyer12.

And of course, that doesn't account for any future growth either. How long will it take WS to launch YYZ-CDG/FCO, I wonder.

^ WS disagrees with you, or else they wouldn't have gone for the codeshare.

Thenoflyzone wrote:

^ WS disagrees with you, or else they wouldn't have gone for the codeshare.

I'd respectfully disagree with the above statement.

If WestJet had a few more B787s or this was a COVID-free world, they'd be doing YYZ-CDG or YYZ-FCO. As it stands right now they'll be lucky to have 10 787s next summer, and the 10 options haven't been confirmed and likely won't be for another year or two. Those routes are no-brainers that they will be on, just give it another year or two. Right now they are focusing on building up YYC-Europe, a tactical choice that they have made. But it is just a matter of "when" and not "if" WestJet metal is doing from YYZ.

WS7M8 wrote:

Thenoflyzone wrote:

^ WS disagrees with you, or else they wouldn't have gone for the codeshare.

I'd respectfully disagree with the above statement.

If WestJet had a few more B787s or this was a COVID-free world, they'd be doing YYZ-CDG or YYZ-FCO. As it stands right now they'll be lucky to have 10 787s next summer, and the 10 options haven't been confirmed and likely won't be for another year or two. Those routes are no-brainers that they will be on, just give it another year or two. Right now they are focusing on building up YYC-Europe, a tactical choice that they have made. But it is just a matter of "when" and not "if" WestJet metal is doing from YYZ.

You could see those routes added next summer I’m guessing. A little out of range for the MAX to operate, and there is now a crew base for the 787 in the new year. The 4 aircraft will hopefully arrive quickly once Boeing start delivering again, the 3rd is just going on to the line now….