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skipness1E
Posts: 5082
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Tue Nov 23, 2021 5:24 pm

720B wrote:
skipness1E wrote:
Reading comprehension is beyond some people.
BA looking to reduce dependency on LHR is not the same thing as BA leaving LHR. Utter clickbait at best, trolling at worst.

\
No need to insult, really

Manners and arrogance are beyond some people

100% wrong. The title of this thread is inaccurate on every level. BA have not in any way threatened to leave LHR, the worst they will do is refocus some connections within IAG elsewhere. So to even say "BA are mulling to leave LHR" is inaccurate, clickbait nonsense unsupported by the details supplled and that sort of nonsense and dishonestly annoys me. There's every need to challenge people when they make nonsense headlines and this one is outright wrong.
 
airbazar
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Tue Nov 23, 2021 6:38 pm

AngMoh wrote:

Moving from FRA to MUC is a very different scenario. MUC and FRA are the main airports in Germany and MUC is a high yield high volume end destination. It is just shifting available seats by increasing and decreasing aircraft sizes in both places. On top of that, FRA and MUC are relatively close and transit in MUC is much easier than FRA (if I have the option, I transit in MUC and I have done that a few times). What would be the same is LH moving transit passengers from FRA to BER or HAM: that will not happen anytime soon.

AF/KL is doing something similar by shifting transit between CDG and AMS and reverse. Again, not a major issue.

BA shifting transit from LHR to DUB and MAD makes no sense. No-one is going to fly PHL to MAD to transfer to PRG. It is a huge detour. DUB is just too small.


I have news for you, IAG is already using MAD as a connecting hub. It's not unusual to find itineraries to Europe via MAD.
Every single U.S. carrier has multiple hubs. Operating multiple hubs and using advanced algorithms for capacity management is nothing new. IAG (not BA), shifting some connecting traffic away from LHR is not that earth-shattering of a concept.
 
BaronHamstead
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:30 pm

Very misleading thread title and misinterpretation of what was actually said. BA or more precisely IAG have never said they would leave Heathrow. They said if fees were to rise too steeply they may cut SOME flights at Heathrow.
This could mean a variety of things. For example, moving some cost sensitive routes to Gatwick, or building up transfer traffic from other IAG hubs.
I am certain IAG is not the only company concerned with rising costs at Heathrow in these difficult times.
 
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william
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:40 pm

I am surprised BA is able to be competitive with the "Heathrow" tax. Fly on a free ticket AA from the US and one does not pay the tax. Travel from Europe to the US through Heathrow ( THANKS AA :mad: ) and WOW!
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:01 pm

miegapele wrote:
So BA wants to give up LHR slots if fees are not reduced? Yeah, sure, that makes sense... If you're 3 years old

You reduce the footprint at LHR, which is THE premium demand airport, by simply running smaller aircraft. Narrow-body long haul with a high premium mix. Larger aircraft and lower competitive fares go over Gatwick. Substitute as needed. BUT, you can only do that it you control the airport, because someone else will always upgauge and backfill.

It CAN be done, but does anyone have the stones to do it?
 
3AWM
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:18 pm

BA do kind of control LHR though due to slot constraints and the 3rd runway is again in doubt which means the situation is likely to stay the same for a long time.

I order to accomodate it a lot of BA business would have to be moved over to Aer Lingus. Maybe this would meet with some resistance due to internal IAG politics with BA being the senior member of the group of airlines.
 
WkndWanderer
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:31 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Blerg wrote:
BA might need LHR but IAG has options. They don't have to de-hub LHR, they just need to invest more in EI and IB which will then naturally shift transfer passengers away from LHR. In addition to that, BA can put a greater focus on other airports like LGW. This is something LHR knows and why I think this threat isn't as innocent as some make it out to be.

The network out of LHR will most likely still have transfers but much less than before. Capacity can be reduced to reflect the new reality and there we go. A route that was once operated with the A321 will become A320, A320 will be turned to A319 while A319 routes will either get cut or reduced to some regional jet.
BA will still keep their frequencies out of LHR while the airport will earn less money.

After all, didn't IB just announce a whole round of new destinations in the US? ;)


Nope. Downgauging increases CASM. Marginal flights get cut. Destinations get cut. Hub connectivity decreases. Each new cut reinforces the death spiral. See the history of how DL went from 600 flights a day at CVG to 80. Ask yourself why some much BA TATL runs from LHR vs. MAN/BHX/BFS... A hub carrier starts flights at another hub chasing non-stop fare premiums, not so much passenger fee arbitrage.

IAG runs connections thru LHR today because it is the most efficient option, building on the LON O&D. Every other option is less efficient. Regulators or airport operators could change the calculus if fees went up 500% but a 5GBP increase per passenger segment does not.

BA getting other carriers to boycott, too, would be collusion.


It would also be so expensive to set up a second hub as an effective transit point that it would wipe out any cost savings from reducing their LHR fees. Building a second hub as a transfer point that you don’t even really need while still having to maintain a large O&D op at LHR duplicates a lot of costs that you don’t need and weakens the viability of flights from both.
 
WkndWanderer
Posts: 360
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:35 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
miegapele wrote:
So BA wants to give up LHR slots if fees are not reduced? Yeah, sure, that makes sense... If you're 3 years old

You reduce the footprint at LHR, which is THE premium demand airport, by simply running smaller aircraft. Narrow-body long haul with a high premium mix. Larger aircraft and lower competitive fares go over Gatwick. Substitute as needed. BUT, you can only do that it you control the airport, because someone else will always upgauge and backfill.

It CAN be done, but does anyone have the stones to do it?


LGW doesn’t have the infrastructure to become a leading transfer hub without significant investment. Using smaller gauge out of LHR increases costs, which they would already be duplicating many of by setting up a separate transfer hub. AA couldn’t make it work for ORD / STL or JFK/ PHL in a much larger country with multiple viable hub options, you simply duplicate too many costs that could be consolidated and weaken both ops.
 
miegapele
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:55 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
You reduce the footprint at LHR, which is THE premium demand airport, by simply running smaller aircraft. Narrow-body long haul with a high premium mix.

That is always touted as a way to keep or even increase revenues here on a.net, but I'm not so sure it really works. If that was the case, you would not need weight balance plane in the back.
 
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lesfalls
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Tue Nov 23, 2021 10:35 pm

airbazar wrote:
Moving some connecting traffic to a cheaper/better airport is not completely out of the realm of possibility. LH has been doing exactly that by moving some of their connecting traffic from FRA to MUC because of their beef with FRA.
The issue here is that BA is not likely to find a better airport to move to and "cheaper" is both relative and temporary. Lets say they move to MAD. What's the likelihood that MAD will also increase their fees after they move?


MAD actually has raised its fees due to ‘limited usage of its facilities’. Can’t find the article as of now but will take a look.
 
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spinotter
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:32 am

commpilot wrote:
Let them go and build a mega terminal at Gatwick and move everything there.... with their 1 runway. Flights will be delayed for 3 days before they'd get a slot to take off. Very sound business sense.. leaving Heathrow.


Isn't a second runway planned for Gatwick? Will it arrive before the third runway at LHR?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-sussex-58503470.amp
 
Metchalus
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:42 am

spinotter wrote:
commpilot wrote:
Let them go and build a mega terminal at Gatwick and move everything there.... with their 1 runway. Flights will be delayed for 3 days before they'd get a slot to take off. Very sound business sense.. leaving Heathrow.


Isn't a second runway planned for Gatwick? Will it arrive before the third runway at LHR?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-sussex-58503470.amp


The current timetable for the Gatwick runway is 2029.
Of course this is the UK and deadlines change all the time.
There is a plan for a considerable increase in terminal capacity. Perhaps BA will want to be in on that?

During the pandemic Heathrow said that their third runway wouldn't be needed for about a decade, but this project has pretty much gone silent.
 
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eurotrader85
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Wed Nov 24, 2021 9:51 am

par13del wrote:
Now that the UK is out of the EU, how would such a move affect the pax experience on flights to the continent, whether from LHR or elsewhere?


No change. The UK was never part of Schengen so security & passport control are unaffected.

Metchalus wrote:
spinotter wrote:
commpilot wrote:
Let them go and build a mega terminal at Gatwick and move everything there.... with their 1 runway. Flights will be delayed for 3 days before they'd get a slot to take off. Very sound business sense.. leaving Heathrow.


Isn't a second runway planned for Gatwick? Will it arrive before the third runway at LHR?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-sussex-58503470.amp


The current timetable for the Gatwick runway is 2029.
Of course this is the UK and deadlines change all the time.
There is a plan for a considerable increase in terminal capacity. Perhaps BA will want to be in on that?

During the pandemic Heathrow said that their third runway wouldn't be needed for about a decade, but this project has pretty much gone silent.


The combined use of the northern runway at LGW has only just entered public consultation so, in legal terms, it is a long way off compared to LHR expansion which can now go forward with a Development Consent Order, although the logistics and costs would be considerably less prohibitive at LGW under their plans. However, there is a reason why every full-service major airline has looked to shift their traffic from LGW to LHR where possible, location, and thus the prices they can charge pax, and BA is not going to buck that trend breaking up its O&D and transfer traffic even if a second runway is built at LGW. Rather, it would want to tighten its grip on LHR.
 
720B
Topic Author
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Wed Nov 24, 2021 12:58 pm

skipness1E wrote:
720B wrote:
skipness1E wrote:
Reading comprehension is beyond some people.
BA looking to reduce dependency on LHR is not the same thing as BA leaving LHR. Utter clickbait at best, trolling at worst.

\
No need to insult, really

Manners and arrogance are beyond some people

100% wrong. The title of this thread is inaccurate on every level. BA have not in any way threatened to leave LHR, the worst they will do is refocus some connections within IAG elsewhere. So to even say "BA are mulling to leave LHR" is inaccurate, clickbait nonsense unsupported by the details supplled and that sort of nonsense and dishonestly annoys me. There's every need to challenge people when they make nonsense headlines and this one is outright wrong.


Your majesty, being annoyed does not give you the right to insult people or to call me dishonest,. I did not write the article. BTW, English is not my 1st language, so chill out dude.
 
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spinotter
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:27 pm

720B wrote:
skipness1E wrote:
720B wrote:
\
No need to insult, really

Manners and arrogance are beyond some people

100% wrong. The title of this thread is inaccurate on every level. BA have not in any way threatened to leave LHR, the worst they will do is refocus some connections within IAG elsewhere. So to even say "BA are mulling to leave LHR" is inaccurate, clickbait nonsense unsupported by the details supplled and that sort of nonsense and dishonestly annoys me. There's every need to challenge people when they make nonsense headlines and this one is outright wrong.


Your majesty, being annoyed does not give you the right to insult people or to call me dishonest,. I did not write the article. BTW, English is not my 1st language, so chill out dude.


If that was your headline, 720B, "BA mulling leaving LHR," then it was inaccurate, so admit it.
 
WayexTDI
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:50 pm

eurotrader85 wrote:
par13del wrote:
Now that the UK is out of the EU, how would such a move affect the pax experience on flights to the continent, whether from LHR or elsewhere?


No change. The UK was never part of Schengen so security & passport control are unaffected.

Correct, the UK was never part of the Schengen Area; however, it was part of the Common Travel Area, which is very similar in control to Schengen, and did not require a passport for EU nationals.
 
tonystan
Posts: 1765
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:23 pm

WayexTDI wrote:
eurotrader85 wrote:
par13del wrote:
Now that the UK is out of the EU, how would such a move affect the pax experience on flights to the continent, whether from LHR or elsewhere?


No change. The UK was never part of Schengen so security & passport control are unaffected.

Correct, the UK was never part of the Schengen Area; however, it was part of the Common Travel Area, which is very similar in control to Schengen, and did not require a passport for EU nationals.


Shengen and the CTA are two very different agreements. The CTA predates shengen and even the EU/EEA. It was created to provide the Republic of Ireland, Channel Islands and the Isle of Man “Domestic” status whilst still maintaining customs. The volume of flights that came under the CTA agreement would by its nature be rather limited and especially so now where T5 only needs to cater to a handful of DUB flights a day which now have two dedicated stands for arrivals. Even T2 only has the EI operation to contend with so Brexit or no Brexit there would not have been much of a change.

And as I’m sure you know the ROI although still very much a member of the EU is also not a member of Shengen as a result of the CTA.
 
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a36001
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Thu Nov 25, 2021 12:33 am

Two (probably silly so be nice!) questions:

1) why is Heathrow more important than Gatwick why can't BA set up there main ops there and say "jack you" to LHR
2) could BA (in this case) just buy a lot of land somewhere and build their own airport - not a real prospect given the NIMBY's and greenies would have a meltdown and everyone is too weak to challenge them (I'd like to see that tbh)
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:13 am

Heathrow has been built to be a hub airport. Terminal 5 (has about 50% of LHR's passengers) is BA's home and was designed very much with transferring and premium pax in mind. Gatwick is much more fragmented and (at least in 2019) was largely full with mainly low cost airlines. Yes, BA have some ops at Gatwick, but these have been almost entirely about taking people who live in/near London to leisure destinations and back - think flights between London and Mediterranean beaches
BA tried a mini hub at LGW about 20 years ago... the customers voted with their wallets to stay at Heathrow and the Gatwick BA mini hub was disassembled pretty quickly

Land planning law make it extremely difficult to build a major new runway, never mind a new airport, in the UK. The public inquiry into whether Heathrow Terminal 5 should be built lasted several years. The decision on a 3rd runway at Heathrow depends very much on the opinion of the Prime Minister of the year it is being debated and remains very much on pause for now. It would be at least 20 years before a major new London airport could be opened even if there was no major pro-environmental push.... far too long for BA to contemplate building it themselves. It could only happen with major Govt backing

Ultimately, as others have said, BA need Heathrow, and Heathrow needs BA. Like a couple who have been happily married for 50+ years, divorce is simply inconceivable
Last edited by davidjohnson6 on Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:20 am, edited 2 times in total.
 
Metchalus
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Thu Nov 25, 2021 1:19 am

a36001 wrote:
Two (probably silly so be nice!) questions:

1) why is Heathrow more important than Gatwick why can't BA set up there main ops there and say "jack you" to LHR
2) could BA (in this case) just buy a lot of land somewhere and build their own airport - not a real prospect given the NIMBY's and greenies would have a meltdown and everyone is too weak to challenge them (I'd like to see that tbh)


Heathrow has the connections both alliance and BAs own network. Terminal 5 is basically custom built for BA.
BA has large maintenance and crew facilities at LHR.

Even with LGWs planned expansion there is not enough space at LGW to support BA.

The chance of the a new airport being built in the UK is basically nil. They can't even build new runways at existing airports.
Also BA couldn't finance a new airport.
 
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Revelation
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:24 pm

ClassicLover wrote:
SRQKEF wrote:
frigatebird wrote:
I don't think the title of the article reflects Mr. Gallego's words correctly. As I read it, IAG are considering funnelling transit passengers (over 40%) through another hub. If they move them to another UK airport, for example LGW, people in Britain wouldn't be too concerned. But the possibilities at other UK airports are limited. Moving to MAD on the other hand, would be a major concern for British politicians. It would mean many BA destinations would move to IB and UX, and considerable loss of jobs for BA and LHR. BA would retain LHR for P2P traffic only. I think that is what IAG is considering (threatening?).

Same, I read it as BA threatening to move transit focused routes from LHR to MAD/DUB if fees get hiked, especially on more marginal routes.

That's still 40% of passengers, which is a lot of people. Also, you can't move the transit passengers as one block of people. A lot of the point to point flights rely on the transit passengers to operate profitably. Take them out of the equation and move them all to DUB or MAD and the house of cards comes tumbling down on other routes.

BA would need to substantially change their business model - moving some transit passengers to DUB (and it would be DUB as it's geographically closest and has a 2nd runway opening next year), starting long-haul out of MAN, EDI/GLA, NCL, JER to stop the domestic transits and so on. It could be done and stranger things have happened. Still don't think there's any chance of it though!! :)

:checkmark:

skipness1E wrote:
720B wrote:
skipness1E wrote:
Reading comprehension is beyond some people.
BA looking to reduce dependency on LHR is not the same thing as BA leaving LHR. Utter clickbait at best, trolling at worst.

No need to insult, really

Manners and arrogance are beyond some people

100% wrong. The title of this thread is inaccurate on every level. BA have not in any way threatened to leave LHR, the worst they will do is refocus some connections within IAG elsewhere. So to even say "BA are mulling to leave LHR" is inaccurate, clickbait nonsense unsupported by the details supplled and that sort of nonsense and dishonestly annoys me. There's every need to challenge people when they make nonsense headlines and this one is outright wrong.

The quote is even more benign than that, he just says they will reconsider their use of LHR.

I agree, it seems that the media now exaggerates automatically to get clicks, people just read the clickbait headlines and not the actual quotes, so it's the clickbait that sticks.
 
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aemoreira1981
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Re: British Airways mulling (threatening?) to leave LHR

Thu Nov 25, 2021 2:39 pm

A bluff unless other airlines band together.

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