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kaitak
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Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:26 pm

Good afternoon folks and welcome to our last thread of the year. "Better than 2020" is about as kindly as we can describe 2021. The current concerns about Omicron, unwelcome (though not unexpected) as a new variant is are, mercifully, not being accompanied by rash restrictions; the decision to require a PCR test from Friday is hardly unreasonable and will hopefully not stifle demand excessively, particularly as we come up to the Christmas season, which all airlines will be hoping brings some good traffic results. Of course, Omicron is still not as well known and mapped as it needs to be, but let's just hope that once more is known, it will be seen to be less serious than Delta. So far, suggestions are that it is relatively mild.

Some highlights from November:
- FR losses tumble 80%, as traffic figures recover
- FR criticises Boeing over Max 10 pricing
- Vueling inaugurates DUB-ORY. Also leases EI A330 for some peak routes
- 1.6m pax through DUB in October, down 46% compared to 2019, but obviously very positive compared to what we were seeing earlier this year
- LX offering 1 weekly ORK-GVA
- Transatlantic flights resume
- EI in further dialogue with state over new loans
- EI axes MAN-US flights due to poor loads
- 2 EI A330s to be transferred to IB, presumed (though not confirmed) to be -200s

Everything is - dare I say it - up in the air until we really know about Omicron. The vibes and the lack of a hysterical reaction and rush towards new restrictions, (apart from one or two countries) suggest less concern than existed about the Delta variant and an apparent confidence that health authorities will be able to handle whatever comes, with the already announced (and faster) rollout of booster shots and renewed calls for the unvaccinated to get themselves vaccinated.

If we can get over this "hump" and Omicron turns out to be less harmful than feared, then it will be an immense relief to everyone - health authorities and the general population obviously, but also the air transport industry; we should see an increased confidence in travel, based on the belief that there is a reasoned, effective and focused plan to deal with variants, now and in the future (and there will be more). 2021 started out as a lousy year for aviation; I think - doubts and concerns about Omicron aside - we can look forward to a much better 2022.

May I take this opportunity to wish all participants in the forum a very happy Christmas and all the very best for Christmas and the New Year.
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:38 pm

Just announced that from Friday an antigen / PCR test will be needed to fly to the ROI . This will no doubt trigger quite a lot of cancelations .
 
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shamrock350
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:53 pm

Painfully predictable response from the Irish Government regarding entry test requirements, it will achieve absolutely nothing at this stage while inflicting serious damage on an industry still struggling to its feet.


kaitak wrote:
- EI axes MAN-US flights due to poor loads


Anyone actually have a source or some details on this? With the current panic over the new variant it wouldn't surprise me but so far I haven't seen any confirmed cancellations, flights are still available for booking throughout Dec, Jan and Feb at their published schedules. So far forward bookings for the MAN-USA routes have been pretty strong, if any route is facing demand based cancellations it would be BGI judging on its performance so far.
 
DLASFlyer
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 1:57 pm

Enough already with the travel restrictions! Unless everyone is going to be confined to their homes for the next two years, we need to learn to live with this. Vaccines work, masks work, therapeutics work, tests work. Travel restrictions don't.
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:06 pm

BHD / BFS yield management will be having Turkey this Christmas . Probably not long before we see fares of £300-400 ! When will the Irish government ever learn . The CTA should have at least been excluded .
 
acavpics
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:13 pm

kaitak wrote:

The vibes and the lack of a hysterical reaction and rush towards new restrictions, (apart from one or two countries) suggest less concern than existed about the Delta variant and an apparent confidence that health authorities will be able to handle whatever comes, with the already announced (and faster) rollout of booster shots and renewed calls for the unvaccinated to get themselves vaccinated.


That is the first bit of optimism I've seen regarding the Omicron variant. I really hope it ends up being true :)
 
Eirules
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:19 pm

OA260 wrote:
Just announced that from Friday an antigen / PCR test will be needed to fly to the ROI . This will no doubt trigger quite a lot of cancelations .


So Darragh O’Brien (why he’s giving travel advice is anyone’s guess) says the same test can be used for outbound and inbound if you’re out of the country less than 72hrs (48 for antigen).

What utter nonsense. So for 18 months the snake oil tests have been vilified by NPHET & govt. Now I can take one on Fri a’noon, go to Liverpool on a bender & use same test to come back Sun morning but I still can’t go to a pub in Dublin unvaccinated! Who makes this up?
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:19 pm

Eirules wrote:
What utter nonsense. So for 18 months the snake oil tests have been vilified by NPHET & govt. Now I can take one on Fri a’noon, go to Liverpool on a bender & use same test to come back Sun morning but I still can’t go to a pub in Dublin unvaccinated! Who makes this up?


Well if you think about the timeline for tests to become positive, then it does make some sense and is not just being "made up", this has always been the case for countries that require testing prior to arrival - the test has to be taken at T-X prior to arrival, where it is taken or what you have chosen to do in the interim has never been taken into consideration. NPHET have been fairly consistent in their opposition to rapid antigen tests, at least until the evidence became overwhelming. It's a bit like the masks - where individuals cited a paucity of data as evidence of them being ineffective, which is not quite the same thing.
The entry requirements to the UK from outside the CTA are similar to what is proposed for entry to Ireland - a negative test should be taken on Day 0, 1 or 2 after arrival. This can be a lateral flow or PCR, unless coming from certain countries. Personally I feel a pre-departure rapid test and a Day 2 PCR is a good combination as you are preventing people with high viral loads travelling in the first place and have the ability to monitor/sequence for variants with the post-arrival tests. My feeling is that these tests should be HSE/NHS administered and free at the point of care, as a public health protection measure, but that does not seem to be the way things are.

As a point of interest Spain has already moved to ban unvaccinated arrivals from the UK, regardless of test results. If you are unvaccinated you can't go, so its not just the pub where the unvaccinated are running into problems.
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:54 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
[
As a point of interest Spain has already moved to ban unvaccinated arrivals from the UK, regardless of test results.


Good should have been in from day one. ROI would do well to adopt this instead of lame rabbit in headlights schemes. Its going to trash the aviation and travel industry again but this time without the supports.


The move is today already having a domino effect on travel plans. Reading on various travel related FB groups the cancellations are coming in thick and fast.

Kind of ironic that slimy Simon only hours ago said this about the UK.


" Happy to receive CONFIRMATION that new #COVID19 international travel measures announced by U.K. Govt, involving extra PCR testing on arrival, will NOT apply to the CTA. So travellers from #Ireland to U.K. will be unaffected."

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status ... 30113?s=21
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 3:58 pm

OA260 wrote:
BHD / BFS yield management will be having Turkey this Christmas . Probably not long before we see fares of £300-400 ! When will the Irish government ever learn . The CTA should have at least been excluded .


Very silly not to include the CTA. Yep, flying to Belfast will be the way forward then.
 
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Phen
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 5:24 pm

OA260 wrote:
" Happy to receive CONFIRMATION that new #COVID19 international travel measures announced by U.K. Govt, involving extra PCR testing on arrival, will NOT apply to the CTA. So travellers from #Ireland to U.K. will be unaffected."

https://twitter.com/simoncoveney/status ... 30113?s=21

This in particular irks me. Shocking hypocrisy. I suspect that it was a case today of - whatever Nphet says, goes - due to the events of last Christmas when the Government didn't heed their advice and we all know what happened after that. I don't quite believe that the cabinet genuinely feels these restrictions are proportionate. I think its more optics and ass-covering than anything else.
 
Clydenairways
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:41 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
Eirules wrote:
What utter nonsense. So for 18 months the snake oil tests have been vilified by NPHET & govt. Now I can take one on Fri a’noon, go to Liverpool on a bender & use same test to come back Sun morning but I still can’t go to a pub in Dublin unvaccinated! Who makes this up?


Well if you think about the timeline for tests to become positive, then it does make some sense and is not just being "made up", this has always been the case for countries that require testing prior to arrival - the test has to be taken at T-X prior to arrival, where it is taken or what you have chosen to do in the interim has never been taken into consideration. NPHET have been fairly consistent in their opposition to rapid antigen tests, at least until the evidence became overwhelming. It's a bit like the masks - where individuals cited a paucity of data as evidence of them being ineffective, which is not quite the same thing.
The entry requirements to the UK from outside the CTA are similar to what is proposed for entry to Ireland - a negative test should be taken on Day 0, 1 or 2 after arrival. This can be a lateral flow or PCR, unless coming from certain countries. Personally I feel a pre-departure rapid test and a Day 2 PCR is a good combination as you are preventing people with high viral loads travelling in the first place and have the ability to monitor/sequence for variants with the post-arrival tests. My feeling is that these tests should be HSE/NHS administered and free at the point of care, as a public health protection measure, but that does not seem to be the way things are.

As a point of interest Spain has already moved to ban unvaccinated arrivals from the UK, regardless of test results. If you are unvaccinated you can't go, so its not just the pub where the unvaccinated are running into problems.


It's potentially much worse than this for Aviation. What it demonstrates is that travel restrictions can still be introduced at a moment's notice and this will have an impact on potential recovery in 2022.
There is lots of potential demand but uncertainty over government restrictions is the biggest concern for planning any trips.
 
iRISH251
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 7:19 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
Personally I feel a pre-departure rapid test and a Day 2 PCR is a good combination as you are preventing people with high viral loads travelling in the first place and have the ability to monitor/sequence for variants with the post-arrival tests. My feeling is that these tests should be HSE/NHS administered and free at the point of care, as a public health protection measure, but that does not seem to be the way things are.


Ireland is already maxed out on use of its public PCR testing capacity at a cost of maybe €500m a year. Why should the State - even if it could, which I strongly doubt - fund testing which in the majority of cases is to enable travel for people's personal reasons. I don't at all begrudge people for travelling for leisure or other reasons but the costs associated with this should fall to the individual, or their employer if they are travelling for business purposes. Irish taxpayers arguably already get a poor enough deal when you look at the causes towards which governments have been willing to contribute generously; we don't need another "the Government should pay" arrangement here.
 
KIRFlyer
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 8:51 pm

The government are to examine and re-introduce hotel quarantine towards the end of this week. Any ideas on what countries will be on the list? All of the ones in Southern Africa where Omicron originated?!? Or any others also included?
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:37 pm

Unvaccinated even from GB must have full PCR and antigen not allowed.


https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/a83 ... nal-travel
 
JAmie2k9
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:15 pm

shamrock350 wrote:
Painfully predictable response from the Irish Government regarding entry test requirements, it will achieve absolutely nothing at this stage while inflicting serious damage on an industry still struggling to its feet.


kaitak wrote:
- EI axes MAN-US flights due to poor loads


Anyone actually have a source or some details on this? With the current panic over the new variant it wouldn't surprise me but so far I haven't seen any confirmed cancellations, flights are still available for booking throughout Dec, Jan and Feb at their published schedules. So far forward bookings for the MAN-USA routes have been pretty strong, if any route is facing demand based cancellations it would be BGI judging on its performance so far.


Minor adjustments on JFK which would be standard at the time of year.
 
JAmie2k9
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:20 pm

OA260 wrote:
Unvaccinated even from GB must have full PCR and antigen not allowed.


https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/a83 ... nal-travel


If I am not mistaken this has been in place since July 19th for unvaccinated passengers including GB but not really enforced.
 
aireuropef100
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Tue Nov 30, 2021 10:24 pm

We are supposed to fly on St Stephen's Day from LGW to DUB on a flight we rescheduled 5 times from Easter 2020. With 5 of us travelling we are looking at £350 or so in PCR tests we have to take on 23rd and pray we get these on 24th. All of us have been double vaccinated and get booster this weekend, it now means our PCR tests come to more than the flights did originally. I just hope someone checks us as wife and daughter wasted £109 on tests in August and were just waved through with a flash of the passport. If the government wants to get air travel back in business it should not be hurting the cash cow of UK-IE travel. Already seeing flights to BHD going up in price as people look at other options
 
VanBosch
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Wed Dec 01, 2021 12:11 am

aireuropef100 wrote:
We are supposed to fly on St Stephen's Day from LGW to DUB on a flight we rescheduled 5 times from Easter 2020. With 5 of us travelling we are looking at £350 or so in PCR tests we have to take on 23rd and pray we get these on 24th. All of us have been double vaccinated and get booster this weekend, it now means our PCR tests come to more than the flights did originally. I just hope someone checks us as wife and daughter wasted £109 on tests in August and were just waved through with a flash of the passport. If the government wants to get air travel back in business it should not be hurting the cash cow of UK-IE travel. Already seeing flights to BHD going up in price as people look at other options


If fully vaccinated you can use an antigen test which should be cheaper.
 
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shamrock350
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:39 am

Hot food, sandwiches and wraps are back on the Bia menu.

https://www.aerlingus.com/media/pdfs/bia.pdf

Only major item missing appears to be the breakfast.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:10 am

shamrock350 wrote:
Only major item missing appears to be the breakfast.


... which is the only thing I look forward to and a main reason why I fly Aer Lingus!

I'm flying DUB-LHR at the end of January so maybe it'll be back by then. Not too bothered if not, as I'm connecting to AA to JFK in J, so I'll be fed and watered properly there. If things don't fall apart between now and then re travel restrictions.
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Wed Dec 01, 2021 2:06 pm

Ryanair are giving away their seats from DUB. They have the Canary Islands from €55 return in December.
 
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IrishTexan
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Wed Dec 01, 2021 3:37 pm

Travel to the USA may become more challenging.
Major announcement tomorrow (Thursday) likely to include testing requirement on day before travel, another 5 days after arrival AND mandatory 7 day quarantine with fines/penalties for failure to comply!
Expected to apply to all inbound passengers including returning US citizens.
Multiple news outlets all reporting the exact same predictions but none seem to have any details on start date.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... -us-entry/
 
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AmricanShamrok
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:23 pm

I see EI145 is the flight number for the new MAN-JFK route. This used to be the number for DUB-LAX. The OCD within me would love to do a job on renumbering all EI flights/routes!
 
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AmricanShamrok
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:24 pm

OA260 wrote:
Ryanair are giving away their seats from DUB. They have the Canary Islands from €55 return in December.

Unreal value considering I paid €80 for a free* return trip with EI to LPA last month.

*taxes and charges applied
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Wed Dec 01, 2021 5:50 pm

AmricanShamrok wrote:
OA260 wrote:
Ryanair are giving away their seats from DUB. They have the Canary Islands from €55 return in December.

Unreal value considering I paid €80 for a free* return trip with EI to LPA last month.

*taxes and charges applied


I know saw EI flights to ACE today for €117 return over Christmas . 10 days ago they were up around €450. Its not the test itself which at Eurofins ACE in the terminal is only €30 but if you test positive where do you go. Thats what is scaring people so they are just cancelling.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:03 am

Flew into Cork last night on Lauda Europe from STN, which was a novelty. Aer Lingus don't offer evening flights to Cork most days anymore. I can't say it was a novelty I would be rushing to repeat. The legroom is very tight and the seats have no padding that I could see. Every vibration through the airframe came through them. Overall the cabin was quite grubby and not up to the usual Ryanair standard. The overhead bins really struggled with the carry-ons, something I haven't seen on the 737s for ages. For all their faults I've always found the Ryanair fleet impeccably presented and well maintained. I wouldn't be thrilled to see Lauda operating other flights and would actively avoid them on flights more than an hour.

OA260 wrote:
I know saw EI flights to ACE today for €117 return over Christmas . 10 days ago they were up around €450. Its not the test itself which at Eurofins ACE in the terminal is only €30 but if you test positive where do you go. Thats what is scaring people so they are just cancelling.

Thats very true. While there are worse places to be stuck than the Canaries, if you are not prepared and have no ability to work remotely its a bit of a disaster. Two weeks in a hotel room wouldn't be great either - on the wallet or on the mind. The stories of crew being quarantined in extremely basic accomodation in Hong Kong would put anyone off traveling, which might well be the point.

iRISH251 wrote:
Ireland is already maxed out on use of its public PCR testing capacity at a cost of maybe €500m a year. Why should the State - even if it could, which I strongly doubt - fund testing which in the majority of cases is to enable travel for people's personal reasons. I don't at all begrudge people for travelling for leisure or other reasons but the costs associated with this should fall to the individual, or their employer if they are travelling for business purposes. Irish taxpayers arguably already get a poor enough deal when you look at the causes towards which governments have been willing to contribute generously; we don't need another "the Government should pay" arrangement here.

That is one way to look at it and completely valid. My view is that countries should be among to keep the disease burden as low as possible and be monitoring for variants. Travel testing is a good way to do this and provides a lot of data about "healthy" and unsymptomatic populations. I view testing as a Public Health Service and it should be free at the point of care. Whats the difference between going to work as a teacher and going to work at a meeting in London?
Even if the cost of a PCR to the HSE is €50, the CSO reports arrivals into the country at well under a million in September 2021. The question is if that €50 million is better spent on PCR tests for travellers or on treating the people they potentially infect. It's not quite as simple as saying Mary and Joe should pay for their own tests.
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:46 am

Some interesting load factors for FR .


Ryanair passenger numbers drop in November

www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/1202/1264 ... -november/
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 11:00 am

Clydenairways wrote:
BrianDromey wrote:
Eirules wrote:
What utter nonsense. So for 18 months the snake oil tests have been vilified by NPHET & govt. Now I can take one on Fri a’noon, go to Liverpool on a bender & use same test to come back Sun morning but I still can’t go to a pub in Dublin unvaccinated! Who makes this up?


Well if you think about the timeline for tests to become positive, then it does make some sense and is not just being "made up", this has always been the case for countries that require testing prior to arrival - the test has to be taken at T-X prior to arrival, where it is taken or what you have chosen to do in the interim has never been taken into consideration. NPHET have been fairly consistent in their opposition to rapid antigen tests, at least until the evidence became overwhelming. It's a bit like the masks - where individuals cited a paucity of data as evidence of them being ineffective, which is not quite the same thing.
The entry requirements to the UK from outside the CTA are similar to what is proposed for entry to Ireland - a negative test should be taken on Day 0, 1 or 2 after arrival. This can be a lateral flow or PCR, unless coming from certain countries. Personally I feel a pre-departure rapid test and a Day 2 PCR is a good combination as you are preventing people with high viral loads travelling in the first place and have the ability to monitor/sequence for variants with the post-arrival tests. My feeling is that these tests should be HSE/NHS administered and free at the point of care, as a public health protection measure, but that does not seem to be the way things are.

As a point of interest Spain has already moved to ban unvaccinated arrivals from the UK, regardless of test results. If you are unvaccinated you can't go, so its not just the pub where the unvaccinated are running into problems.


It's potentially much worse than this for Aviation. What it demonstrates is that travel restrictions can still be introduced at a moment's notice and this will have an impact on potential recovery in 2022.
There is lots of potential demand but uncertainty over government restrictions is the biggest concern for planning any trips.

I have to concur. In any business, uncertainty reduces demand. This will hit airlines, hotels, AirBNBs...

Hospitalizations are up. But shorter hospital stays, but of younger patients:

https://www.enca.com/news/health-offici ... s-covid-19

I do not know at this time if the measures are appropriate or not. What I know is if appropriate, it cannot be implemented later with any benefit.
The impact on aviation is sad

Lightsaber
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 4:55 pm

Aer Lingus has extended its book with confidence policy and you can now change up until 2 hours before check in for all departures until end January . After that free changes are allowed 7 days before departure and applies until September 2022.
 
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OA260
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:40 pm

PLAY to start DUB flights from next Spring


PLAY to launch flights from Dublin to Iceland

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/12 ... o-iceland/
 
factsonly
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 7:41 pm

After a long absence EI re-instated ORK-AMS today, December 2nd, starting with the evening service EI844:

- 02 Dec 2021 ORK 17.00 - AMS 19.40 A320 EI-EDS Mon, Thu, Fri, Sun

The morning service is set to commence Monday December 6th, 2021, operating Mon, Tue, Wed, Fri

EI's return will take ORK-AMS to 4x daily in a slow winter season.
Any bets on ...for how long.

- ORK 06:00 - AMS 08:50 KL1084 - E90 daily
- ORK 06:10 - AMS 08:55 EI840 - 320 Mon, Tue, Wed, Fri
- ORK 13:15 - AMS 15:55 KL1086 - E90 daily
- ORK 17:00 - AMS 19:40 EI844 - 320 Mon, Thu, Fri, Sun

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/ei844
 
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IrishTexan
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:01 pm

IrishTexan wrote:
Travel to the USA may become more challenging.
Major announcement tomorrow (Thursday) likely to include testing requirement on day before travel, another 5 days after arrival AND mandatory 7 day quarantine with fines/penalties for failure to comply!
Expected to apply to all inbound passengers including returning US citizens.
Multiple news outlets all reporting the exact same predictions but none seem to have any details on start date.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... -us-entry/

Update after the Big Guy addressed the nation.
The only media rumor that was correct is that the negative test requirement goes from three days prior to travel to just one day prior.
No mention of post arrival tests or quarantine.
 
BrianDromey
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 8:34 pm

IrishTexan wrote:
The only media rumor that was correct is that the negative test requirement goes from three days prior to travel to just one day prior.
No mention of post arrival tests or quarantine.

I think the arrival tests are "advised" in most states? I know the requirement for tests varies by state as well and it might not be a federal power?

factsonly wrote:
EI's return will take ORK-AMS to 4x daily in a slow winter season.
Any bets on ...for how long.

In fairness its only Monday and Friday that EI will be operating 2 services, so not 4x daily for most of the week. EI are offering 8 weekly flights, so a fair cut on their side. I do agree that it does seem a very ambitious schedule. Prior to COIVD I think EI offered 12 or 13 weekly on ORK-AMS, so 2,262 seats each way. This winter is will be 1400 from KLM (14 x 100 seats) and 1392 from EI, totalling 2792 seats each way, each week. Given the cuts on the EI side and some expectation that KLM would grow the number of passengers connecting onto their service, the numbers look OK. I think EI seem to be holding on OK on DUB-AMS with both FR and KL offering flights.
 
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ClassicLover
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:06 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
Thats very true. While there are worse places to be stuck than the Canaries, if you are not prepared and have no ability to work remotely its a bit of a disaster. Two weeks in a hotel room wouldn't be great either - on the wallet or on the mind. The stories of crew being quarantined in extremely basic accommodation in Hong Kong would put anyone off traveling, which might well be the point.


I'd be fine to be stuck anywhere, all I need is my work laptop. The issue is potentially have to pay for those 14 days in a hotel room. If it were free, it's really no bother. I say this as someone who spent two weeks in hotel quarantine in Adelaide last December. I worked from home for four days of it (though working 7:30pm to 2:30am or whatever it was Australian time was probably the toughest part). I also didn't have to pay, so for me it was fine. I wouldn't want to pay for it, that's for sure - who has €2,000 plus sitting around for that. Not me!

OA260 wrote:
Some interesting load factors for FR .

Ryanair passenger numbers drop in November

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2021/12 ... -november/


Very decent load factors indeed. I saw Michael O'Leary on the Aviation Straight Talk thing run by EuroControl a week or so ago. He said fares have not recovered, which is obvious by the cheap pricing, but I'm sure it will down the line. Less losses are better than more losses anyway.
 
IrishLessor
Posts: 111
Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:44 am

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:28 pm

AmricanShamrok wrote:
I see EI145 is the flight number for the new MAN-JFK route. This used to be the number for DUB-LAX. The OCD within me would love to do a job on renumbering all EI flights/routes!

Hi I think it's EI 45 as opposed to EI 145.
There have been some changes to the flight numbers since 2019.

A lot of flight numbers have changed over the years, e.g. EI444 used to do DUB STN but it now goes to Corfu more recently. There are other examples!
 
factsonly
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Joined: Mon Aug 06, 2012 3:08 pm

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:37 pm

BrianDromey wrote:
I think EI seem to be holding on OK on DUB-AMS with both FR and KL offering flights.


Just a comment on this last statement.

I would say EI struggles on DUB-AMS, as the airline has reduced its frequency significantly in COVID times.
This route is a perfect example that EI has difficulty competing with LCC's on one side and the fortress hub carriers on the other side.
Due to much lower TATL connecting traffic, EI is largely reduced to carrying point-to-point traffic on the route, which competes with FR pricing in particular.
KLM attracts traffic to/from Ireland from around its global network, in addition to point-to-point traffic generated by its loyalty programme - while operating lower cost regional aircraft to maintain frequency.

In EI's monopoly days, in the early 2000's, the airline operated DUB-AMS 5x daily (including night-stop), ORK-AMS 2x daily, and even tried BFS-AMS 1x daily.

In 2015 FR arrived on the route 4x daily DUB-AMS and KLM joined the route in 2016 with 4x daily, EI reduced to 4x daily in response.

Today, FR operates upto 4x and 5x daily (Mon/Fri) and KLM 4x daily, while EI is down to 2x daily.

This is a loss of marketshare.
 
IrishLessor
Posts: 111
Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:44 am

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:39 pm

Regarding all the very valid comments made here about covid, all large airlines now reporting that bookings have taken a major show down in the last ten days. It's totally sickening in Ireland how the gov have the most impressive range of rules, 100% for strategizing and ideas, but I'd score them 30% on execution. Instead of properly executing existing rules they just bring in more that again will not be executed. Some examples;
1. Most cafes and restaurants are only implementing the entry requirements to varying degrees, they with take your word for it that you have a covid cert, and few check that the cert is yours. Widely open to misuse
2. Buses. I have used buses in the last few months more than usual and the drivers on many do not insist on masks. I've seen folk get on to buses not wearing masks board and travel unchecked. Bus Eireann leaving the airport last week ,kudos to the driver, he walked down the bus and said everybody has to wear a mask to travel. Otherwise, it's a waste if time.
I could keep writing but I'll stop. I've a sick relation in intensive care, so it is impactful when the rules are lax. We all pay. Our industry will suffer again. As for those who refuse vaccines, I'd like to see them go on lock down, unless of course they are exempt.

The government need to wise up and provide leadership, the alternative is very costly in so many non economic and economic ways..

Stay safe everybody.
 
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AmricanShamrok
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Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:57 pm

EI-FNA (former Stobart Air/Aer Lingus Regional), an ATR 72-600, has been transferred to and repainted in Olympic Air colours. Pictured here in both liveries at SNN: https://flyinginireland.com/2021/12/sha ... -update-8/
 
IrishLessor
Posts: 111
Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:44 am

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:16 pm

factsonly wrote:
BrianDromey wrote:
I think EI seem to be holding on OK on DUB-AMS with both FR and KL offering flights.


Just a comment on this last statement.

I would say EI struggles on DUB-AMS, as the airline has reduced its frequency significantly in COVID times.
This route is a perfect example that EI has difficulty competing with LCC's on one side and the fortress hub carriers on the other side.
Due to much lower TATL connecting traffic, EI is largely reduced to carrying point-to-point traffic on the route, which competes with FR pricing in particular.
KLM attracts traffic to/from Ireland from around its global network, in addition to point-to-point traffic generated by its loyalty programme - while operating lower cost regional aircraft to maintain frequency.

In EI's monopoly days, in the early 2000's, the airline operated DUB-AMS 5x daily (including night-stop), ORK-AMS 2x daily, and even tried BFS-AMS 1x daily.

In 2015 FR arrived on the route 4x daily DUB-AMS and KLM joined the route in 2016 with 4x daily, EI reduced to 4x daily in response.

Today, FR operates upto 4x and 5x daily (Mon/Fri) and KLM 4x daily, while EI is down to 2x daily.

This is a loss of marketshare.


Factsonly,
I think EI is being realistic, as you point out they are neither cost leader, nor can they touch the strength of the KLM heavily subsidised (of late) super hub airline.
However, I would make this point. Though KLM has frequency, a very significant amount is it's passengers are not ending their journey in Schiphol. They've said pre pandemic that 85% of traffic is point to point. Aer Lingus in monopoly days as you put it, were carrying all those transfer passengers.

Aer Lingus plays to its strengths and does it's own hub and spoke thing for North America, and nicely for customers who start their journeys in the US. This is a piece of it, frequent flier redemptions is another, as it's the cohort of people who prefer Aer Lingus. Once the demand increases the frequency will grow. Aer Lingus isn't Ryanair so no point losing money to capture share and equally no point go after the KLM piece which is in capacity terms for Dub to AMS small.
 
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OA260
Posts: 25850
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Thu Dec 02, 2021 10:49 pm

AmricanShamrok wrote:
EI-FNA (former Stobart Air/Aer Lingus Regional), an ATR 72-600, has been transferred to and repainted in Olympic Air colours. Pictured here in both liveries at SNN: https://flyinginireland.com/2021/12/sha ... -update-8/


Love it off to sunnier climes as SX OBJ .
 
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OA260
Posts: 25850
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Fri Dec 03, 2021 7:43 am

Govt delays introduction of Covid tests for arrivals

www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2021/1203/1 ... trictions/
 
al2637
Posts: 270
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2006 1:11 am

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:26 am

IrishLessor wrote:
factsonly wrote:
Aer Lingus isn't Ryanair so no point losing money to capture share and equally no point go after the KLM piece which is in capacity terms for Dub to AMS small.


I wouldn't say the KLM share of the point to point market is small. While I agree the majority of DUB originating passengers are carried by EI/FR, the overwhelming majority of AMS originating traffic flies on KLM (they have huge brand recognition in NL, nearly everyone is a member of flying blue, EI are relatively unknown, and FR fly a single route). Pre-covid, KL were flying up to 7 daily, and not all e-jets! They also night stop allowing much better options for business day trips from both ends.

Repeat this with AF/BA/LH etc, EI really need to come up with a strategy for the short haul network. I think it could take quite some time for the transatlantic transfer market to come back, as passengers become less inclined to connect over foreign hubs (not necessarily the fear of contracting the virus, but getting stuck in a 3rd country).
 
Galwayman
Posts: 1067
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2017 10:20 am

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Fri Dec 03, 2021 11:12 am

I’d be amazed if KLM had any interest at all in flying any passengers just between AMS and Ireland , it would be an economic disaster - they’re in Ireland for passengers going to Brazil , South Africa and Asia .

The vast majority of Dutch people would walk barefoot over glass to save 50 cents by flying the most cost effective lcc on any route
 
IrishLessor
Posts: 111
Joined: Sat Jul 20, 2019 2:44 am

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:46 am

Completely right Galwayman.
They'd much prefer passengers boarding their flights were making a connection were connecting and supporting their long haul operation. The data I've seen heard this out. Anyway, all of the network carriers such as BA, LH, KL, TP and IB etc are doing great network traffic from Dublin.
 
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AmricanShamrok
Posts: 2366
Joined: Fri May 09, 2008 2:03 pm

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Sat Dec 04, 2021 12:11 pm

Speaking of KL; is the EI codeshare agreement still in place with them? The KL flight number seems to have been removed from the EI ORK-AMS flights according to FlightStats.
 
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OA260
Posts: 25850
Joined: Thu Nov 30, 2006 8:50 pm

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Sat Dec 04, 2021 12:21 pm

Very quiet at T2 this morning . Place near empty.
EI Lounge only had 5 people in it .
 
PhilipBass
Posts: 137
Joined: Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:30 pm

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Sat Dec 04, 2021 12:36 pm

On my recent trips I have used T2 security check and when I pass by T1 security check on way to my gate it has looked like a jungle.
Only issue I had with using T2 Security is the staff telling me I'm not flying from this terminal which I politely acknowledge.
 
PhilipBass
Posts: 137
Joined: Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:30 pm

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Sat Dec 04, 2021 12:47 pm

IrishLessor wrote:
Completely right Galwayman.
They'd much prefer passengers boarding their flights were making a connection were connecting and supporting their long haul operation. The data I've seen heard this out. Anyway, all of the network carriers such as BA, LH, KL, TP and IB etc are doing great network traffic from Dublin.

If the goal for BA, LH, KL, etc... is to get people on to their widebodies at their hubs Ryanair and other LCCs from airports like Dublin should check to see at what price they could make it worth the incumbent's while to "abandon" these routes for them to pickup if reliable interconnect could be made possible by the LCC. Flying less than half-full planes is costing these legacy airlines profit.
 
PhilipBass
Posts: 137
Joined: Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:30 pm

Re: Irish 12/21: Oh me, oh my .... Omicron

Sat Dec 04, 2021 1:39 pm

35 quid for an antigen test is still a lot of Ryanair nautical miles. I've no such restriction on the far side. My covid cert on my phone is an "all entry pass" to a normal life.
when the Irish Government are pissing off those who are immunized to the hilt and also the COVIDIOTS then they have probably made the wrong choices.

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