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lightmac
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Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 8:26 am

If you compare today's airline scene to the one ten years ago, these trends are clear:
- the consolidation of the big 6 into the big 3 (legacies) in the US is over (unless Alaska does something)
- the rise of the ME3 und Chinese Big 3 was strong
- in Europe: The rise of Wizzair
- the mixed picture of the "long-haul low-cost airlines": Level and westjet seem to do well, where others have failed
- countries that lot their flag carriers: Hungary, Italy, Namibia, Slovenia, Armenia, Estonia, Cyprus, Czech Republic
- failures of large "second airlines" in their country such as Asiana in Korea or Air Berlin in Germany or Transaero in Russia, less competition
- growing "airlines within airlines" such as buzz and Lauda for Ryanair, Eurowings for Lufthansa-Group or Anadolu for Turkish
- Airlines absorbing their subsidiaries: Such as Austrian absorbing Arrows, Cathay absorbing Dragon, Singapore absorbing Silkair
-a unique case was the collapse of the big airline conglomerate Hainan

Did I miss any major trends for the last ten years? Thank you!
 
KFLLCFII
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:35 am

lightmac wrote:
Did I miss any major trends for the last ten years? Thank you!


In the US, the Race to the Bottom: Airlines like Spirit and Allegiant have thrived, with "less than zero" frills included at Greyhound prices while at least assuring customers that if they need to be somewhere, "We'll get you there[...maybe]". And along with Greyhound prices come Greyhound customers. The US4 have attempted to follow suit by depleting their entry-level brand with Economy-Minus...and largely depleting their presence as customer-service based operators to that not unlike public utilities.
 
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InnsbruckFlyer
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:40 am

lightmac wrote:
Did I miss any major trends for the last ten years? Thank you!


European legacy carriers turning into glorified low-cost carriers by eliminating free food/drink, introducing light fares, etc.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 10:15 am

In Australia, Virgin Australia manifestly failed in their bid to take on the Qantas juggernaut and emerged from administration as an operation akin to Virgin Blue. On the subject of Qantas, it was November 2011 when Alan Joyce grounded the airline to call the unions bluff, and notwithstanding the questionable nature of that move, they have transformed from a chronically poorly performing airline to a fairly innovative and nimble operator.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:12 pm

lightmac wrote:
If you compare today's airline scene to the one ten years ago, these trends are clear:
- the consolidation of the big 6 into the big 3 (legacies) in the US is over (unless Alaska does something)
- the rise of the ME3 und Chinese Big 3 was strong
- in Europe: The rise of Wizzair
- the mixed picture of the "long-haul low-cost airlines": Level and westjet seem to do well, where others have failed
- countries that lot their flag carriers: Hungary, Italy, Namibia, Slovenia, Armenia, Estonia, Cyprus, Czech Republic
- failures of large "second airlines" in their country such as Asiana in Korea or Air Berlin in Germany or Transaero in Russia, less competition
- growing "airlines within airlines" such as buzz and Lauda for Ryanair, Eurowings for Lufthansa-Group or Anadolu for Turkish
- Airlines absorbing their subsidiaries: Such as Austrian absorbing Arrows, Cathay absorbing Dragon, Singapore absorbing Silkair
-a unique case was the collapse of the big airline conglomerate Hainan

Did I miss any major trends for the last ten years? Thank you!


Further consolidation in the US airline industry may be complicated, but it is not entirely off the table and it most likely doesn't sit with a decision Alaska Airlines might or might not take. JetBlue, Alaska, Frontier, and Spirit can all be in play now or in the future, though the regulatory, financial, and operational hurdles are greater than they ever have been.
 
LCDFlight
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 12:53 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
lightmac wrote:
If you compare today's airline scene to the one ten years ago, these trends are clear:
- the consolidation of the big 6 into the big 3 (legacies) in the US is over (unless Alaska does something)
- the rise of the ME3 und Chinese Big 3 was strong
- in Europe: The rise of Wizzair
- the mixed picture of the "long-haul low-cost airlines": Level and westjet seem to do well, where others have failed
- countries that lot their flag carriers: Hungary, Italy, Namibia, Slovenia, Armenia, Estonia, Cyprus, Czech Republic
- failures of large "second airlines" in their country such as Asiana in Korea or Air Berlin in Germany or Transaero in Russia, less competition
- growing "airlines within airlines" such as buzz and Lauda for Ryanair, Eurowings for Lufthansa-Group or Anadolu for Turkish
- Airlines absorbing their subsidiaries: Such as Austrian absorbing Arrows, Cathay absorbing Dragon, Singapore absorbing Silkair
-a unique case was the collapse of the big airline conglomerate Hainan

Did I miss any major trends for the last ten years? Thank you!


Further consolidation in the US airline industry may be complicated, but it is not entirely off the table and it most likely doesn't sit with a decision Alaska Airlines might or might not take. JetBlue, Alaska, Frontier, and Spirit can all be in play now or in the future, though the regulatory, financial, and operational hurdles are greater than they ever have been.


Huge question, and relevant topic in the last 10 years. North America-based (trying to be inclusive here) airlines finally made their full recovery from 9/11.

Looking forward (in the US) on the one hand, regulators should be clearly supportive of credible rivals to the Big 4 in the US. On the other hand, scrappy LCCs provide incredible benefits to US consumers by suppressing prices across the country. Think Spirit versus Frontier. That stuff is a godsend. It would be a shame to lose either one to consolidation. The loss of AirTran cost consumers like me untold billions.
 
SCQ83
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 1:11 pm

- in Europe: The rise of Wizzair

The last 10 years have not been the rise of W6, at least to the point of challenging the leader (Ryanair). The rise of W6 will likely be over the next 10 years. In Europe I would say:

- In Europe: The rise and (almost) fall of Norwegian

Norwegian was the carrier that made low-cost long-haul a mass effect, and that challenged the traditional legacy long-haul model.

- growing "airlines within airlines" such as buzz and Lauda for Ryanair, Eurowings for Lufthansa-Group or Anadolu for Turkish

Lauda rather than Ryanair makes very little difference to the customer. It would be better said "low-cost subsidiaries taking over non-hubs". That meant the explosion of Vueling, Transavia and Eurowings.

- Airlines absorbing their subsidiaries: Such as Austrian absorbing Arrows, Cathay absorbing Dragon, Singapore absorbing Silkair

I don't see that as a phenomenon. That is more of a corporate structure that changes very little for the customer. And you have plenty of cases where it is the other way around, like the new BA Euroflyer out of LGW.
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 1:14 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
lightmac wrote:
If you compare today's airline scene to the one ten years ago, these trends are clear:
- the consolidation of the big 6 into the big 3 (legacies) in the US is over (unless Alaska does something)
- the rise of the ME3 und Chinese Big 3 was strong
- in Europe: The rise of Wizzair
- the mixed picture of the "long-haul low-cost airlines": Level and westjet seem to do well, where others have failed
- countries that lot their flag carriers: Hungary, Italy, Namibia, Slovenia, Armenia, Estonia, Cyprus, Czech Republic
- failures of large "second airlines" in their country such as Asiana in Korea or Air Berlin in Germany or Transaero in Russia, less competition
- growing "airlines within airlines" such as buzz and Lauda for Ryanair, Eurowings for Lufthansa-Group or Anadolu for Turkish
- Airlines absorbing their subsidiaries: Such as Austrian absorbing Arrows, Cathay absorbing Dragon, Singapore absorbing Silkair
-a unique case was the collapse of the big airline conglomerate Hainan

Did I miss any major trends for the last ten years? Thank you!


Further consolidation in the US airline industry may be complicated, but it is not entirely off the table and it most likely doesn't sit with a decision Alaska Airlines might or might not take. JetBlue, Alaska, Frontier, and Spirit can all be in play now or in the future, though the regulatory, financial, and operational hurdles are greater than they ever have been.


Huge question, and relevant topic in the last 10 years. North America-based (trying to be inclusive here) airlines finally made their full recovery from 9/11.

Looking forward (in the US) on the one hand, regulators should be clearly supportive of credible rivals to the Big 4 in the US. On the other hand, scrappy LCCs provide incredible benefits to US consumers by suppressing prices across the country. Think Spirit versus Frontier. That stuff is a godsend. It would be a shame to lose either one to consolidation. The loss of AirTran cost consumers like me untold billions.


Frontier is owned by Indigo Partners, a Private Equity firm that controls a number of airlines through investments. It is an opportunistic model and not one that exists to provide some sort of benevolent benefit. Yes, the likes of NK and F9 do help keep air fares low in some markets in an industry that is almost entirely reliant on leisure travel at the moment and not seeing much turnaround in business travel. The future of industry consolidation, if it continues, will be facilitated through SPACs and other vehicles over the traditional cash or equity swap. In the US, the industry is far more efficient now than it was 10 years ago, with far less fragmentation and inefficiencies.
 
Airbuser
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 1:39 pm

US Airline hiring 10 years ago was anemic.

My airline hired zero pilots from 9/11/2001 until 12/31/2013.
My airline plans on hiring at least 2000 in the year 2022.
My pay ten years ago was $110/hr. Now 279/hr. I expect it will go much higher soon because of the lack of pilots.
 
Chuska
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 1:46 pm

The props are all gone from the big 3 in the U.S. No more DH8's, SF3's, EM2's, ATR's, or AT7's at AA, DL, or UA (plus US, NW and CO at the time). Even F9 had Lynx with DH4's back then. And what's left of commuter airlines today are totally reliant on EAS. Horizon and Silver are about the only others still thriving with props.
 
FlyHossD
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 2:54 pm

lightmac wrote:
- countries that lot their flag carriers: Hungary, Italy, Namibia, Slovenia, Armenia, Estonia, Cyprus, Czech Republic...

Did I miss any major trends for the last ten years? Thank you!


"countries that lot their flag carriers." I don't understand - did you mean lost?
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 3:43 pm

The rise of the Trashy Traveler. One could argue it started with US deregulation but the last couple of years especially have seen their numbers skyrocket. Sure, thousands of flights operate daily without incident but when a TT makes a scene now it is truly repulsive. Wouldn't even change planes in Florida at this point, much less visit. Sure, the odds are in my favor but I'm just now willing to throw the dice these days.
 
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Boeing757100
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:18 pm

Ah yes, the late 00s-early 10s. Some nostalgic times indeed.
Back then, you could still see these following planes at some major airlines

-727
-737 classic
-747 (back when everyone literally flew the -400s)
-757
-767
-DC8
-DC9
-DC10
-MD11
-MD80
-MD90

The consolidation of the US6 to 3 made AA,UA,DL have turbulent years in the beginning but they started to improve by the end of the 2010s.
 
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Boeing757100
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:19 pm

Chuska wrote:
The props are all gone from the big 3 in the U.S. No more DH8's, SF3's, EM2's, ATR's, or AT7's at AA, DL, or UA (plus US, NW and CO at the time). Even F9 had Lynx with DH4's back then. And what's left of commuter airlines today are totally reliant on EAS. Horizon and Silver are about the only others still thriving with props.


Eh, DL still flew Saab 340s under Mesaba until 2011...
 
vedatil4
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:25 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
The rise of the Trashy Traveler. One could argue it started with US deregulation but the last couple of years especially have seen their numbers skyrocket. Sure, thousands of flights operate daily without incident but when a TT makes a scene now it is truly repulsive. Wouldn't even change planes in Florida at this point, much less visit. Sure, the odds are in my favor but I'm just now willing to throw the dice these days.


I agree and thank you for labeling the phenomenon.

Call me old fashioned, but could we at least require people to wear shoes?

Unlike you, I would be excited to fly back from Florida or Vegas on an ULCC after a holiday weekend. Anything is possible if the flight is delayed or cancelled. I've seen video of street brawlers on airplanes.

On two occasions before flights I thought the scene was set for the worst elements of society to reveal themselves. I was kind of bummed out when nothing happened.

It's fascinating that all the wonderful science and technology required for human flight can also be ruined by humans under the right conditions.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:26 pm

Mention needs to go to the political/environmental climate that airlines are operating in. No fleet planner can ignore the possibility of a carbon tax within the lifespan of any new purchase at this point, and most of the majors are attempting some form of project that allows them to claim a reduced carbon footprint.
 
EFHK
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:39 pm

InnsbruckFlyer wrote:
lightmac wrote:
Did I miss any major trends for the last ten years? Thank you!


European legacy carriers turning into glorified low-cost carriers by eliminating free food/drink, introducing light fares, etc.


I wouldn't call them "glorified low-cost carriers", but rather "segmenting carriers" would be a more appropriate term.

Sure, for the Average Joe for whom the price is the main deciding factor, legacies have adapted their services to be more LCC-like. But for those who actually bring meaningful money into the company, such as business travelers and customers on the higher tiers of FF programs, they're actually very pleasant and the customer experience is much unlike on LCCs.
 
TokyoImperialPa
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:46 pm

EFHK wrote:
InnsbruckFlyer wrote:
lightmac wrote:
Did I miss any major trends for the last ten years? Thank you!


European legacy carriers turning into glorified low-cost carriers by eliminating free food/drink, introducing light fares, etc.


I wouldn't call them "glorified low-cost carriers", but rather "segmenting carriers" would be a more appropriate term.

Sure, for the Average Joe for whom the price is the main deciding factor, legacies have adapted their services to be more LCC-like. But for those who actually bring meaningful money into the company, such as business travelers and customers on the higher tiers of FF programs, they're actually very pleasant and the customer experience is much unlike on LCCs.


One has to wonder at how the difference between LCC and legacies will be when many LCC are introducing high class services. A number of the short haul routes have business class products nothing more in flight that premium products on LCCs.
 
EFHK
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:55 pm

TokyoImperialPa wrote:
EFHK wrote:
InnsbruckFlyer wrote:

European legacy carriers turning into glorified low-cost carriers by eliminating free food/drink, introducing light fares, etc.


I wouldn't call them "glorified low-cost carriers", but rather "segmenting carriers" would be a more appropriate term.

Sure, for the Average Joe for whom the price is the main deciding factor, legacies have adapted their services to be more LCC-like. But for those who actually bring meaningful money into the company, such as business travelers and customers on the higher tiers of FF programs, they're actually very pleasant and the customer experience is much unlike on LCCs.


One has to wonder at how the difference between LCC and legacies will be when many LCC are introducing high class services. A number of the short haul routes have business class products nothing more in flight that premium products on LCCs.


That's a great point, and I was actually tempted to bring up the aspect of LCCs adopting legacy-like products/practices on my previous post, but couldn't come up with enough concrete examples off the top of my head to justify that claim. (NK's big seats are an obvious one, such as experimentation with connecting itineraries in Europe.)

Alliances and global connectivity seem to still be features that LCCs have struggled to adopt so far. (The importance of those can potentially be diminished in the future though, if COVID will spell semi-permanent difficulty with global travel.)
 
AAIL86
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 4:59 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
The rise of the Trashy Traveler. One could argue it started with US deregulation but the last couple of years especially have seen their numbers skyrocket. Sure, thousands of flights operate daily without incident but when a TT makes a scene now it is truly repulsive. Wouldn't even change planes in Florida at this point, much less visit. Sure, the odds are in my favor but I'm just now willing to throw the dice these days.


They were there ten years ago, trust me. We just didn't have the level of social media back then that we do now to document their most infamous exploits.
 
af773atmsp
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:06 pm

By 2011 this was already happening but within the last 10 years the number of passenger aircraft with more than 2 engines seems to have dropped dramatically, especially when the pandemic began. This is anecdotal of course, but the few times I spotted at AMS this month the only passenger aircraft with more than 2 engines I saw was EK's A380. Long-haul flying is dominated by A330s, A350s, 787s, and 777s.

For airline economics the simplified fleets and 2-engine aircraft are great, but of course for plane spotters like myself the lack of diversity in aircraft isn't great. At least there's still some variety when it comes to freighters.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:18 pm

I think the rise the ULCC is the main idea your missing. That more people then any of your other bullet points

People book on price and they complain but will book and fly ULCCs over and over. Their share is just going to grow. People have a terrible experience and will still rebook or book a different ULCC. That trend is going to continue and grow without question
 
travaz
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:20 pm

KFLLCFII wrote:
lightmac wrote:
Did I miss any major trends for the last ten years? Thank you!


In the US, the Race to the Bottom: Airlines like Spirit and Allegiant have thrived, with "less than zero" frills included at Greyhound prices while at least assuring customers that if they need to be somewhere, "We'll get you there[...maybe]". And along with Greyhound prices come Greyhound customers. The US4 have attempted to follow suit by depleting their entry-level brand with Economy-Minus...and largely depleting their presence as customer-service based operators to that not unlike public utilities.


This is the Airlines worldwide responding to the demands of the People who buy tickets. If you like premium seating and other perks you can still purchase these fares. If the traveling public wanted premium service it would have 60 FC Seats on a plane. I have seen it brought up hundreds of times that people will pick the Ticket price that is $1.00 cheaper than the others. This is a trend that is not going away. Unfortunately with lower yields come cost reductions. This is happening in most customer service industries. Walmart , Target, you name it. The last time I attempted to call AA they quoted me a 8 hour wait for the next agent.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 5:46 pm

The fall of business travel. The biggest change from ten years ago

Covid accelerated it to a ridiculous scale but the technology had evolved to reduce alot of business travel. We will never see numbers for business travel back to 2012 numbers and cost will play a much larger factor in bookings. Companies who didnt used to even blink at a 1k ticket from nyc to atl flight last minute will now weigh the cost and time lost to doing a zoom call etc etc. Business travel will never see the numbers we saw and its really cost savings and because of technology. The pandemic just accelerated what is "business acceptable" but its not really covid.

As a worker I'm never letting someone do a live pitch again. I save so much time now.
Give me your price or a zoom call pitch and proposal I'm not meeting you. The time savings for me are just way too significant! Never going back and I know vast majority feel the same way acrossed lots of different things and industries. Lots of things are just way faster thru a zoom call or email and we have less time now. Live meetings are insane time sinks and cost lots of money.
Businesses are not going back despite what a few vocal boomer a.neters think. Companies have seen the cost savings and many have slashed travel budgets permanently
 
AAIL86
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 7:27 pm

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
The fall of business travel. The biggest change from ten years ago

Covid accelerated it to a ridiculous scale but the technology had evolved to reduce alot of business travel. We will never see numbers for business travel back to 2012 numbers and cost will play a much larger factor in bookings. Companies who didnt used to even blink at a 1k ticket from nyc to atl flight last minute will now weigh the cost and time lost to doing a zoom call etc etc. Business travel will never see the numbers we saw and its really cost savings and because of technology. The pandemic just accelerated what is "business acceptable" but its not really covid.

As a worker I'm never letting someone do a live pitch again. I save so much time now.
Give me your price or a zoom call pitch and proposal I'm not meeting you. The time savings for me are just way too significant! Never going back and I know vast majority feel the same way acrossed lots of different things and industries. Lots of things are just way faster thru a zoom call or email and we have less time now. Live meetings are insane time sinks and cost lots of money.
Businesses are not going back despite what a few vocal boomer a.neters think. Companies have seen the cost savings and many have slashed travel budgets permanently


There is a level of truth in what you are saying. And lets face it, some of the travel people were doing pre-covid was unnecessary busy work. A quarterly client review meeting when things have been fine for years, please, do it over a video call. Go see them in special cases or to solve problems.

But, if there's a an RFP or contract up? 3 companies bid remotely while a 4th goes in person to discuss, listen, learn, and network? All other things being equal, I know who has the edge.

If travel was important enough for the ancient Greeks and Phoenicians to row small wooden ships across the Mediterranean with a decent chance of death in the mix, it will continue to be important to who we as humans are. So I disagree with you when you say business travel won't be important down the road. Different, sure. But still important.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 9:46 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
Further consolidation in the US airline industry may be complicated, but it is not entirely off the table and it most likely doesn't sit with a decision Alaska Airlines might or might not take. JetBlue, Alaska, Frontier, and Spirit can all be in play now or in the future, though the regulatory, financial, and operational hurdles are greater than they ever have been.


IMHO you greatly overstate any regulatory difficulties between any two of the set AS, B6, F9, NK. There's little overlap in the respective hubs or routes, or city pairs lacking in competition. Likewise, op integration would be easy (if they had the brains to hire people who had done complex integrations before). Simple fleets, simple seniority lists...
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 10:06 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
Further consolidation in the US airline industry may be complicated, but it is not entirely off the table and it most likely doesn't sit with a decision Alaska Airlines might or might not take. JetBlue, Alaska, Frontier, and Spirit can all be in play now or in the future, though the regulatory, financial, and operational hurdles are greater than they ever have been.


IMHO you greatly overstate any regulatory difficulties between any two of the set AS, B6, F9, NK. There's little overlap in the respective hubs or routes, or city pairs lacking in competition. Likewise, op integration would be easy (if they had the brains to hire people who had done complex integrations before). Simple fleets, simple seniority lists...


IMHO I don't think I overstate regulatory hurdles, but they are there for a number of reasons, particularly when you factor in essential air service and the outsized role air transportation has in the overall US economy (we're focusing on the US one for this portion of the discussion). If B6 and AA continue to deepen their partnership in the Northeast, you could argue a merger isn't off the table. The financial resources to pull one off certainly aren't there, on either side, but another severe downturn similar to 2020 in the industry could trigger another wave of consolidation, this time perhaps forced by the US government, as an alternative to hefty bailouts, which, while designed to protect payrolls and assure essential air service, were also possibly and conveniently tapped by some to make deeper investments in foreign airlines. I am sure there are segregation of finances to assure that taxpayer funds aren't funneled to prop up ailing foreign flag carriers subject to the same set of headwinds as everyone else around the globe, but are we sure that that all was clean and separated? Perhaps. Perhaps not. Plenty of ineligible entities got PPP funds.

Further, the Private Equity sector of the financial services industry can and will deploy tools to push along more consolidation if the conditions are there. The question, back to the regulatory hurdles, is what does that mean for the airlines involved here. No, AS, B6, F9, and NK don't really overlap much, but I wasn't talking of a combination between any of those four. It would be a lot more likely that each of these end up with one of the US4 if the industry moves in that direction. For some it would be an opportunity to clean house in terms of the c-suite, and for others, a way to attain the right IT platforms so as not to turn their operations into a mess when the wind blows. For the US government, it would be a way to protect jobs, the economy, and movement of goods and people, if it came to that. Forced mergers was exactly what happened in 2008 in the banking industry. Who's to say that is not a playbook for the industry?

Right now, in the immediate, the DoJ will probably hold firm on further consolidation. You can look at their stance on AA/B6 for guidance.
 
GalaxyFlyer
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 10:20 pm

AAIL86 wrote:
OzarkD9S wrote:
The rise of the Trashy Traveler. One could argue it started with US deregulation but the last couple of years especially have seen their numbers skyrocket. Sure, thousands of flights operate daily without incident but when a TT makes a scene now it is truly repulsive. Wouldn't even change planes in Florida at this point, much less visit. Sure, the odds are in my favor but I'm just now willing to throw the dice these days.


They were there ten years ago, trust me. We just didn't have the level of social media back then that we do now to document their most infamous exploits.



They were there 30-40 years ago. We had a drunk removed by the RCMP after he paw’d the FA, then tried to fight the captain. Removed without touching the floor.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 10:37 pm

ContinentalEWR wrote:
If B6 and AA continue to deepen their partnership in the Northeast, you could argue a merger isn't off the table.


$100 Billion in new rail infrastructure over the next 5 years, largely in the Northeast, may make this potentially an easy merger from a reguiltory perspective.
 
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vatveng
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 10:46 pm

LCDFlight wrote:
The loss of AirTran cost consumers like me untold billions.


The merger that nobody asked for and arguably did the most damage as far as competition in the US goes. And that's a corporate trend, not just an airline trend: buying out a competitor not for their customer base or resources, but to get rid of competition.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 11:09 pm

One major trend is the start of the reduction of major-branded regional airlines in the US. When the pandemic hit, United dumped Expressjet and Delta cut off Compass. 50-seat jet operators, GoJet, Air Wisconsin and Commutair have to be nervous about their future relationships with United. Delta has plans to end support for all 50 seat regional jet operations, which will hit Endeavor hard and put a significant dent in SkyWest. AA will soon be faced with deciding if the E145 still fits their needs, which could mean big trouble for Piedmont and would shrink Envoy.

There is only one regional jet still in production that meets the scope requirements suitable for serving the Big 3 (and Alaska) and that's the E175E1. Its replacement, the E175E2 will probably never get approved by the Big 3 pilot unions. Also, the E2 is only marginally more efficient than the E1 (and more expensive), although it does meet the 2028 emissions requirements and the E1 does not. The lack of suitable new equipment for the regionals will become a major issue going forward.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Mon Dec 27, 2021 11:14 pm

Another change is the move in frequent flyer programs from miles-based points to money spent-based points.
 
melpax
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Tue Dec 28, 2021 4:46 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
The fall of business travel. The biggest change from ten years ago

Covid accelerated it to a ridiculous scale but the technology had evolved to reduce alot of business travel. We will never see numbers for business travel back to 2012 numbers and cost will play a much larger factor in bookings. Companies who didnt used to even blink at a 1k ticket from nyc to atl flight last minute will now weigh the cost and time lost to doing a zoom call etc etc. Business travel will never see the numbers we saw and its really cost savings and because of technology. The pandemic just accelerated what is "business acceptable" but its not really covid.

As a worker I'm never letting someone do a live pitch again. I save so much time now.
Give me your price or a zoom call pitch and proposal I'm not meeting you. The time savings for me are just way too significant! Never going back and I know vast majority feel the same way acrossed lots of different things and industries. Lots of things are just way faster thru a zoom call or email and we have less time now. Live meetings are insane time sinks and cost lots of money.
Businesses are not going back despite what a few vocal boomer a.neters think. Companies have seen the cost savings and many have slashed travel budgets permanently


WFH, even in a hybrid form has also meant that most meetings that would normally have been in-person are now done over Webex, etc. Here in Australia, interstate travel has been difficult with border restrictions, and even within the same city with the long lockdowns & WFH mandates in Melbourne & Sydney. The days of flying MEL-SYD, etc for a 1-2 hour meeting are virtually over, even when things get back to some normalcy. Even my employer, who previously would not allow the bulk of staff to work from home, has realised the benefits of WFH after being forced into it, and will now allow people to WFH 2 days a week. Most business travel that remains will be for things that can't be done online.
 
slcdeltarumd11
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Tue Dec 28, 2021 5:07 am

AAIL86 wrote:
slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
The fall of business travel. The biggest change from ten years ago

Covid accelerated it to a ridiculous scale but the technology had evolved to reduce alot of business travel. We will never see numbers for business travel back to 2012 numbers and cost will play a much larger factor in bookings. Companies who didnt used to even blink at a 1k ticket from nyc to atl flight last minute will now weigh the cost and time lost to doing a zoom call etc etc. Business travel will never see the numbers we saw and its really cost savings and because of technology. The pandemic just accelerated what is "business acceptable" but its not really covid.

As a worker I'm never letting someone do a live pitch again. I save so much time now.
Give me your price or a zoom call pitch and proposal I'm not meeting you. The time savings for me are just way too significant! Never going back and I know vast majority feel the same way acrossed lots of different things and industries. Lots of things are just way faster thru a zoom call or email and we have less time now. Live meetings are insane time sinks and cost lots of money.
Businesses are not going back despite what a few vocal boomer a.neters think. Companies have seen the cost savings and many have slashed travel budgets permanently


There is a level of truth in what you are saying. And lets face it, some of the travel people were doing pre-covid was unnecessary busy work. A quarterly client review meeting when things have been fine for years, please, do it over a video call. Go see them in special cases or to solve problems.

But, if there's a an RFP or contract up? 3 companies bid remotely while a 4th goes in person to discuss, listen, learn, and network? All other things being equal, I know who has the edge.

If travel was important enough for the ancient Greeks and Phoenicians to row small wooden ships across the Mediterranean with a decent chance of death in the mix, it will continue to be important to who we as humans are. So I disagree with you when you say business travel won't be important down the road. Different, sure. But still important.


I do agree with you there will always be some business travel. Some things need to be done live like firing an employee or detailed technical support etc etc. Business travel will 100% always be there but will be smaller and costs to benefit analysis will be much more common in approval processes since budgets will be much smaller.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Tue Dec 28, 2021 5:29 am

slcdeltarumd11 wrote:
Businesses are not going back despite what a few vocal boomer a.neters think. Companies have seen the cost savings and many have slashed travel budgets permanently



In fairness, it is not just a Boomer thing. I see plenty of people my age and younger who think wasting company money on what are almost always avoidable expenses are just a way of life. While it has been obvious for at least a decade that not every last factotum in the company need attend every trade show in existence, this has indeed moved that technological pace fwd some. Good. I think I speak for pretty much everyone when I say I am not ok with inflated cost proposals because a vendor wants to holiday for a living.


AAIL86 wrote:
But, if there's a an RFP or contract up? 3 companies bid remotely while a 4th goes in person to discuss, listen, learn, and network? All other things being equal, I know who has the edge.


All the fourth one has proven is that they know how to waste your money. That and they have wasted a good deal of time doing so. Across almost any industry you can think of, there is no gap in quality among competition wide enough to make up for that sort of wastrelhood.

AAIL86 wrote:
If travel was important enough for the ancient Greeks and Phoenicians to row small wooden ships across the Mediterranean with a decent chance of death in the mix, it will continue to be important to who we as humans are. So I disagree with you when you say business travel won't be important down the road. Different, sure. But still important.


That is what vacations are for. As is paid time off.
 
hoons90
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Tue Dec 28, 2021 5:59 am

In East Asia (specifically Japan and Korea):

- Haneda becoming the primary gateway to Japan and Narita becoming more LCC oriented
- Full-service carriers (especially Japanese ones) retrenching from NRT/KIX/NGO-ICN with LCCs taking their place
- 787s, A350s and 767s operating flights that used to be flown by 747s and 773s
- Sub-10000 Yen domestic fares becoming more common (with StarFlyer, Jetstar, Peach etc.)
- The premiumization of the JAL brand and product after restructuring
- Explosive growth of passenger traffic to/from Korea driven mainly by LCCs expanding to many places that FSCs were not serving before
- Elimination of Intra-Asia flights by UA/DL from Japan. NRT T1 North Wing used to be Delta central ten years ago, now Delta doesn't even fly to Narita at all.
 
lightmac
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Tue Dec 28, 2021 10:17 am

FlyHossD wrote:
lightmac wrote:
- countries that lot their flag carriers: Hungary, Italy, Namibia, Slovenia, Armenia, Estonia, Cyprus, Czech Republic...

Did I miss any major trends for the last ten years? Thank you!


"countries that lot their flag carriers." I don't understand - did you mean lost?

Yes, sorry
 
ContinentalEWR
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Tue Dec 28, 2021 12:50 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
If B6 and AA continue to deepen their partnership in the Northeast, you could argue a merger isn't off the table.


$100 Billion in new rail infrastructure over the next 5 years, largely in the Northeast, may make this potentially an easy merger from a reguiltory perspective.


If it passes. And then clears municipal hurdles. A lot of the NE corridor Amtrak rail passes through some of the country's wealthiest suburbs and I'd expect a strong fight. But yes, a shift to reliable, advanced rail infrastructure in the region will make a merger easier to proceed. I do think AA and B6 are headed in that direction eventually if the financial resources required to pull it off become available.
 
SWADawg
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Tue Dec 28, 2021 1:59 pm

vatveng wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
The loss of AirTran cost consumers like me untold billions.


The merger that nobody asked for and arguably did the most damage as far as competition in the US goes. And that's a corporate trend, not just an airline trend: buying out a competitor not for their customer base or resources, but to get rid of competition.

Then you truly have no clue as to why that merger was consummated then. WN had absolutely no access to ATL and the only way to get into ATL in a commercially viable way was by merging with FL. The combined Airline now has the scale and route network to successfully compete in most markets with the Big 3. Let’s face it, FL was in trouble financially at the time of the merger thanks to both 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis. FL was never going to survive consolidation as a stand-alone carrier. If WN didn’t merge with them, someone else would have.
 
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JBo
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Tue Dec 28, 2021 2:11 pm

SWADawg wrote:
vatveng wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
The loss of AirTran cost consumers like me untold billions.


The merger that nobody asked for and arguably did the most damage as far as competition in the US goes. And that's a corporate trend, not just an airline trend: buying out a competitor not for their customer base or resources, but to get rid of competition.

Then you truly have no clue as to why that merger was consummated then. WN had absolutely no access to ATL and the only way to get into ATL in a commercially viable way was by merging with FL. The combined Airline now has the scale and route network to successfully compete in most markets with the Big 3. Let’s face it, FL was in trouble financially at the time of the merger thanks to both 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis. FL was never going to survive consolidation as a stand-alone carrier. If WN didn’t merge with them, someone else would have.


WN went after FL for much of the same reasons as why FL went after YX.
 
AAIL86
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Tue Dec 28, 2021 4:47 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
All the fourth one has proven is that they know how to waste your money. That and they have wasted a good deal of time doing so. Across almost any industry you can think of, there is no gap in quality among competition wide enough to make up for that sort of wastrelhood.


Some will no doubt conclude that. Others will conclude things like "the first three want to collect our revenue daily, but never show up even when there is a serious problem". I've already agreed with a couple of you that there was a decent amount of travel waste pre-covid, are you really arguing that 100% of commercial, governmental, and scientific activity can be now be done remotely?


DarkSnowyNight wrote:
That is what vacations are for. As is paid time off.


The Phoenicians (later - Greeks and Romans) were not interested in visiting, say, the Costa del Sol for tourism, they made those trips to turn a profit - exporting dyes and other consumer goods of the day while generating revenue. I'll say it again, if expected profit was enough of a motivation for people back then to travel for weeks and months while risking death daily, we will continue to endure middle seats and airline meals (or the lack of them) for the same objective.
 
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NameOmitted
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Tue Dec 28, 2021 5:54 pm

AAIL86 wrote:
The Phoenicians (later - Greeks and Romans) were not interested in visiting, say, the Costa del Sol for tourism, they made those trips to turn a profit - exporting dyes and other consumer goods of the day while generating revenue. I'll say it again, if expected profit was enough of a motivation for people back then to travel for weeks and months while risking death daily, we will continue to endure middle seats and airline meals (or the lack of them) for the same objective.


I don't think anyone is arguing that the freight market is going to be replaced by zoom, but dies and consumer goods don't pay for business class seats.
 
AAIL86
Posts: 513
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Re: Airline scene today compared to ten years ago

Tue Dec 28, 2021 7:55 pm

NameOmitted wrote:
AAIL86 wrote:
The Phoenicians (later - Greeks and Romans) were not interested in visiting, say, the Costa del Sol for tourism, they made those trips to turn a profit - exporting dyes and other consumer goods of the day while generating revenue. I'll say it again, if expected profit was enough of a motivation for people back then to travel for weeks and months while risking death daily, we will continue to endure middle seats and airline meals (or the lack of them) for the same objective.


I don't think anyone is arguing that the freight market is going to be replaced by zoom, but dies and consumer goods don't pay for business class seats.


The point wasn't about one specific commodity. It was about human behavior and how markets work.

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