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Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:21 pm

Revelation wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
We live in a world that is dominated by results. Automation did wonders for aviation that pilots with proper feel and great hand skills could not. Your typical 'dumbed' down pilot today will go through his entire career without ever having encountered a scenario where he has to hand fly. With automation, he will rarely have to intervene unless you have a Qantas 72 edge of the envelope case scenario, and they will average fewer crashes as a result.

How does your "average pilot" deal with a TCAS RA? Not a QF72 edge of the envelope situation at all, something they are likely to run into in their careers.

How common is this?
 
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qf789
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:24 pm

Please stick to the topic and leave the flamebait out of the discussion and discuss in a constructive, civil manner. For those stating facts please be prepared to back your comments up
 
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Francoflier
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:28 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
1. Aviation is logistics. It is the same line of work as Door Dash, Uber Eats, shipping, bus transport, cruise ship, rail..........just in the air with more expensive equipment.

If the Uber Eats guy does not pay attention with his bicycle, he eats pavement or loses his life in an accident.
If a rail operator does not pay attention, he will derail, if switches are not done well trains collide.
If a ship does not have the proper people managing, you have Cahaya Bahari, or Costa Concordia.
Trucking and bus transport problems are way too many.

Does it mean that the people who work in these other lines do not care? They do, but sometimes people make mistakes they should not make and management needs to make a decision as to whether they remain on the job or not.

It is an employee's job work in such a way that they continue keeping their job. It is management's job to ensure that an enterprise is not injured by the people they have entrusted with people's lives and expensive equipment.

Emirates once paid $7,000 to every passenger on the jet that crashed in India. The reputation cost that comes with a plane crash is vastly more expensive because passengers begin to doubt the product.

Finally, why are we questioning everything bar the pilots? Or a far better question is why are they they only ones that encountered such an issue? Sometimes answers are found in simplicity.


I'm sorry but none of that makes any sense at all. You're conflating, confusing and simplifying a whole bunch of things which have nothing to do with one another.

This bit in particular is rather amusing:
It is management's job to ensure that an enterprise is not injured by the people they have entrusted with people's lives and expensive equipment.


Do you know how management does that? They implement a safety management system...


Look, you've obviously no idea what you're on about and every statement that you make only reinforces that fact.
You've admitted that you don't know anything about the industry, especially the operational side of it, or the intricacies of any safety-sensitive industry or the very basics of, again, a safety management system or the implementation of a successful safety culture.

You keep confusing the issues and juxtaposing things that have nothing to do with another
There's a host of industry professionals on here trying to explain to you how it works but you seem to only be able to view the issue from a layman's point of view. Thousands of industry professionals working over decades have formulated exactly what everyone is trying to tell you and at that stage it seems that you don't even know what you don't know. You seemingly approach the topic with the mind of a fast food franchise manager.
I really don't think I or anyone here can help you, nor is there a point in doing so since, fortunately, you do not work in the industry.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:29 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
We live in a world that is dominated by results. Automation did wonders for aviation that pilots with proper feel and great hand skills could not. Your typical 'dumbed' down pilot today will go through his entire career without ever having encountered a scenario where he has to hand fly. With automation, he will rarely have to intervene unless you have a Qantas 72 edge of the envelope case scenario, and they will average fewer crashes as a result.

How does your "average pilot" deal with a TCAS RA? Not a QF72 edge of the envelope situation at all, something they are likely to run into in their careers.

How common is this?

I'm glad you seek to be better informed.

An RA occurs on average every 1,000 flight hours on short/medium-haul aircraft and every 3,000 hours for long-haul aircraft.

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traffic_c ... nce_system

So, definitely not a "Qantas 72 edge of the envelope case scenario".
Last edited by Revelation on Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
bigb
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:35 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
NW747-400 wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
1. Airbus is trying to get to single pilot operations. You think they are doing that and dumping more duties on pilots?

We are not going back because there is no rollback. Calhoun on the other hand said that for their next plane they are possibly going to take the competition's approach. No going back.

2. We do not need to be fly planes to have an opinion. Can you imagine how debates would be on here if we only had a single voice coming from pilots and pilots alone?

3. You can hold, dump fuel and return to point of origin. It is a myth that you need to continue with the flight to the target destination. It has been done many times, even by Emirates on the A380. This is why we should never let people dictate that you can only have an opinion if you have been in the cockpit.


https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/emirates-airline/airbus-a380-to-dubai-u-a-e-returns-to-toronto-canada-after-an-engine-issue/

Another example. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgoldstein/2020/01/24/did-the-delta-airlines-fuel-dump-possibly-prevent-a-larger-disaster/


This comment is patently false. Even if you were on a 767 which was not built with fuel dumping, you would still like to stay close to the airport of origin refer to Blue Panorama, 2004 in Rome.

4. Who told you Emirates does not know what happened?

5. Last comment is you arguing minutiae.


Another untrue statement. The 767 CAN fuel dump. I know because I’ve flown it and dumped fuel.

I only point this out to show that you are dead set on stating what you don’t know as fact.
Blue Panorama. Rome. 2004.

There was no fuel dumping system. I am not pulling stuff from thin air.


How about backing up the claim that, that particular 767 didn’t have a fuel dumping system like moderator has suggested?
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:47 pm

Revelation wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Revelation wrote:
How does your "average pilot" deal with a TCAS RA? Not a QF72 edge of the envelope situation at all, something they are likely to run into in their careers.

How common is this?

I'm glad you seek to be better informed.

An RA occurs on average every 1,000 flight hours on short/medium-haul aircraft and every 3,000 hours for long-haul aircraft.

Ref: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traffic_c ... nce_system

So, definitely not a "Qantas 72 edge of the envelope case scenario".

Are they dealing with it or not? They are prepared and handling it. When was the last time you consistently saw a plane brought down by such? We really are arguing for the sake of it.
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:00 pm

bigb wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
NW747-400 wrote:

Another untrue statement. The 767 CAN fuel dump. I know because I’ve flown it and dumped fuel.

I only point this out to show that you are dead set on stating what you don’t know as fact.
Blue Panorama. Rome. 2004.

There was no fuel dumping system. I am not pulling stuff from thin air.


How about backing up the claim that, that particular 767 didn’t have a fuel dumping system like moderator has suggested?


https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/174761

Full accident report linked at the bottom in Italian.
 
NW747-400
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:05 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
I'm sorry but none of that makes any sense at all. You're conflating, confusing and simplifying a whole bunch of things which have nothing to do with one another.
Pilots transport people and goods. It is just like any other logistics job. It is what it is.


Results. Companies are rated by results and so is safety.

Emirates has one of the best safety records of any airline. They have not got to where they are being led by incompetent people. Proof is in the pudding.
They may do things differently, but guess what, such is life.


You clearly are very passionate about aviation, which is a great thing. It’s a fascinating, fun and dynamic industry to be a part of. From what I can tell, you are also very passionate about EK in particular, which is also great. They have a fantastic product and they are a joy to fly. They are not perfect however. No airline is, and it seems you are arguing just for the sake of it because you wish to defend EK.

I’m glad you have these passions, but you don’t have any experience, training, or knowledge to have a well informed opinion on the inner workings of these matters. Having a friend as a station manager does not make you a subject matter expert.

If you are truly passionate about aviation, please do listen and learn from the people on this forum with which you interact. There are decades upon decades of experience being shared with you on this thread alone, and they all refute many of your statements.

I implore you to learn and gain insight, rather than post false assumptions just to make a point.

One of my favorite mentors once told me: “It’s not who is right, it’s what is right.”

Now I am off to fly a two sector day, and I can already tell you based on the airports I’m flying to that my first officer and I will have to manually fly the approach and landing segments.

Cheers!
 
9w748capt
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:06 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Francoflier wrote:
I'm sorry but none of that makes any sense at all. You're conflating, confusing and simplifying a whole bunch of things which have nothing to do with one another.
Pilots transport people and goods. It is just like any other logistics job. It is what it is.


Results. Companies are rated by results and so is safety.

Emirates has one of the best safety records of any airline. They have not got to where they are being led by incompetent people. Proof is in the pudding.
They may do things differently, but guess what, such is life.


It seems that you define "safety" purely as "fatal crashes." And thus by your view since EK231 didn't crash and kill hundreds of people, it was done "safely."

Just curious what you do actually do for a living? In pretty much any line of work, there are optimal and suboptimal ways to do things. In my line of work, just because I don't do something optimally doesn't mean that some material harm will result, but it was still done suboptimally. The fact that someone didn't die doesn't change that.

Pilots are employed by airlines to fly planes because they're supposed to know how to fly them, right? Well it sure seems that EK (and many other airlines for that matter) have had many incidents where the pilots maybe did something suboptimally. Do you also think that the EK incident in MEL was "safe"? Well no one died, right?
 
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zeke
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:17 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
1. Airbus is trying to get to single pilot operations. You think they are doing that and dumping more duties on pilots?


There is no plan to reduce the number of pilots required under certification to operate an airliner. There will still be two or more onboard. The single pilot operations is more to formalize and enhance what is already being done around the world where one pilot is flying and one is sleeping. I know this as I work at the airline and on the type that has been at the forefront of this.

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
2. We do not need to be fly planes to have an opinion.


To participate in this forum under the forum rules that you have agreed to, when you express an opinion it must be clearly phrased as such. There are numerous comments being made which are factually incorrect, readers Ned to know wha pt you are posting is a fact and what is opinion.

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
3. You can hold, dump fuel and return to point of origin. It is a myth that you need to continue with the flight to the target destination.


Fuel dumping and overweight landings are for emergency situations only, a damaged tyre is not an emergency. There is no issue with holding for 10 hours, there is no issue with going to the destination.

Gremlinzzzz wrote:

It can take over 10 hours for an aircraft on a long haul flight to get below maximum landing weight. With tyre issues on takeoff it is preferable to have the aircraft as light as possible for landing, which just happens to occur at the destination.

This comment is patently false. Even if you were on a 767 which was not built with fuel dumping, you would still like to stay close to the airport of origin refer to Blue Panorama, 2004 in Rome.


You are correct, I was wrong when I said it would take 10 hours to get below maximum landing weight. I just ran a DXB-IAD flight plan, they would have a fuel load of around 140 tonnes, it would have them around 100 tonnes above MLW at takeoff. The flight plan says it would take them 11:03 to get below MLW, not the 10:00 I stated earlier.

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
4. Who told you Emirates does not know what happened?


Because the agency that investigates the incident has not published their findings, not even preliminary findings.
 
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AirKevin
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:20 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
We live in a world that is dominated by results. Automation did wonders for aviation that pilots with proper feel and great hand skills could not. Your typical 'dumbed' down pilot today will go through his entire career without ever having encountered a scenario where he has to hand fly.

Okay, so what happens if you encounter a situation where the automation can't help. Alaska 261 had a stabilizer problem that didn't allow them to use the autopilot. Qantas 32 lost way too many systems to the point where they couldn't use the autopilot. How about the Expressway Visual for runway 31 at LGA or the River Visual for runway 19 at DCA. VOR runway 13L and 13R at JFK.
9w748capt wrote:
NW747-400 wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
1. Airbus is trying to get to single pilot operations. You think they are doing that and dumping more duties on pilots?

We are not going back because there is no rollback. Calhoun on the other hand said that for their next plane they are possibly going to take the competition's approach. No going back.

2. We do not need to be fly planes to have an opinion. Can you imagine how debates would be on here if we only had a single voice coming from pilots and pilots alone?

3. You can hold, dump fuel and return to point of origin. It is a myth that you need to continue with the flight to the target destination. It has been done many times, even by Emirates on the A380. This is why we should never let people dictate that you can only have an opinion if you have been in the cockpit.


https://www.aviation24.be/airlines/emirates-airline/airbus-a380-to-dubai-u-a-e-returns-to-toronto-canada-after-an-engine-issue/

Another example. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelgoldstein/2020/01/24/did-the-delta-airlines-fuel-dump-possibly-prevent-a-larger-disaster/


This comment is patently false. Even if you were on a 767 which was not built with fuel dumping, you would still like to stay close to the airport of origin refer to Blue Panorama, 2004 in Rome.

4. Who told you Emirates does not know what happened?

5. Last comment is you arguing minutiae.


Another untrue statement. The 767 CAN fuel dump. I know because I’ve flown it and dumped fuel.

I only point this out to show that you are dead set on stating what you don’t know as fact.


Just curious - is it possible that some 767s were built without the capability to dump fuel? Gremlinzz has linked to that accident report which says something like "fuel dumping was not a possibility" - but the way I read it is that fuel dumping wasn't possible but not necessarily because the aircraft wasn't physically capable, but could have been due to safety concerns (not a pilot but it would make sense to me that if you have an engine on fire and suspect you're leaking fuel that you wouldn't want to purposely dump more?).

This post here would suggest that fuel dump on the 767 was optional.

viewtopic.php?t=730801#p10563221
 
9w748capt
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:20 pm

bigb wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
NW747-400 wrote:

Another untrue statement. The 767 CAN fuel dump. I know because I’ve flown it and dumped fuel.

I only point this out to show that you are dead set on stating what you don’t know as fact.


Just curious - is it possible that some 767s were built without the capability to dump fuel? Gremlinzz has linked to that accident report which says something like "fuel dumping was not a possibility" - but the way I read it is that fuel dumping wasn't possible but not necessarily because the aircraft wasn't physically capable, but could have been due to safety concerns (not a pilot but it would make sense to me that if you have an engine on fire and suspect you're leaking fuel that you wouldn't want to purposely dump more?).


If you look at the photo of the aircraft, on the aft of the wing just inside of the wingtip you’ll see the fuel jettison nozzle. Since the aircraft experienced uncontained engine fire in the right engine. With the direction of the air flow, location of the fire being on the right side and location of the fuel jettison nozzle on the right wing. By jettison fuel in that situation, you are asking yourself to set your wing on fire thus putting your ability to safety return back to the field in jeopardy even more so.

Does that make sense?


Yes it does - thank you! Man I love this forum when actual informed posters share their knowledge. Appreciate it.
 
Ric99
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:20 pm

I earn my living thanks to Automation and, believe me, it can do wonders.

Still, there will always be cases where sensors go to bad or provide unreliable values, regardless of redundancy, actuators do not work as expected and/or the designer did not cover/test a certain scenario. Like in the AF A330 case, which was a mix of the above, reality is simply more complex than what automation engineering can cover, at least today.

So, every automation system is designed to work until you get in a situation where humans have to take over.

As these cases tend to be complex and requiring fast response, you cannot simply disregard pilot ability to manually fly and penalize who wants to retain or even improve the skills because you know it will be needed.

My professional experience is that overrelying on automation with today tech is a recipe for disasters.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:38 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Emirates has one of the best safety records of any airline. They have not got to where they are being led by incompetent people. Proof is in the pudding.

You do realize that safety isn't black and white?

If 2 airliners miss each other by a meter in flight, is that safe? There is no crash, so no issue, right? Obviously not.

There have been multiple examples of near catostraphic incidents involving EK, including this one. What if the pilots rotated a second later? They could have all died. Would you say EK has a great safety record then? This flight was SO close to hundreds of deaths. No issue? Great safety?

Your simplistic view of sheer amount of deaths and hull losses completely ignores any nuance such as very, very close calls. Plus, why go back to the 1980s? That data analysis is useless. I'd rather fly on an airline with multiple fatal accidents decades ago with a good safety record now than one with a "clean" record with multiple recent close calls.

Luckily for all of us, the industry as a whole has a proactive approach to dealing with issues. You shouldn't bury your head in the sand just because people haven't died (yet)



PS: funny enough, I was reading the flight operations manual for a major US airline last night, and I coincidentally stumbled upon a section encouraging manual flying (including no autothrottles!) during non-busy flights. I can get the exact quotation if you want.

And I am not saying you need to be an industry expert to have an opinion, but you're completely wrong when you say airlines are discouraging handflying. I've been a part of 3 large aviation organizations/companies... ALL 3 have said over reliance on automation is an issue and are working to address it
 
ltbewr
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 7:04 pm

The ME3 and some other airlines elsewhere seem to be behind the times as to sound CRM practices and discipline. CRM started in the USA and Europe to overcome the 'pilot in charge is god' mentality, that potential mistakes are caught before a crash or serious incident, other pilots will face no or limited penalties if they take actions or report them. CRM took longer to be adopted in Asian countries and CRM issues may have been a factor in the crash of Asiana Airlines in SFO a few years ago.

Yes, so far EK has a very good record of not having a major deadly incident/crash, but they have been caught publicly a few times with unacceptable incidents and have harsh and unforgiving policies that increase risk to pax.
 
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DeltaMD90
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:17 pm

I'll add and start off by saying that there are definitely fireable offenses.

I can't tell you the amount of times I have learned from the mistakes of other pilots. Almost every single one of the hundreds of lessons I've learned have been voluntarily shared. I have made dozens and dozens of mistakes... I have NEVER feared my superiors and have happily shared all of my goof ups.

Over the years, I have heard many say they learned from the talk I gave to others regarding my mistake, and I've told others the same (the lessons I learned from them.)

When you're super harsh and fire-first-ask-questions-later, all you do is encourage pilots to cover up mistakes. Who knows if I would be here had I not heard that one or two lessons from others over the years, if those pilots kept things to themselves. Aviation safety is one of the best communities I've been a part of.

If what I've read here and other places is correct about EK, their approach is nothing new... It is outdated, the old way of doing things which (through hundreds of deaths over the years) led to the safety climate we have today.

Which other airline has terrifying mistakes like this EK flight? Kind of telling that these incidents are rare, no? There is a lot that goes into it, it's a complex subject
 
32andBelow
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:33 pm

DeltaMD90 wrote:
I'll add and start off by saying that there are definitely fireable offenses.

I can't tell you the amount of times I have learned from the mistakes of other pilots. Almost every single one of the hundreds of lessons I've learned have been voluntarily shared. I have made dozens and dozens of mistakes... I have NEVER feared my superiors and have happily shared all of my goof ups.

Over the years, I have heard many say they learned from the talk I gave to others regarding my mistake, and I've told others the same (the lessons I learned from them.)

When you're super harsh and fire-first-ask-questions-later, all you do is encourage pilots to cover up mistakes. Who knows if I would be here had I not heard that one or two lessons from others over the years, if those pilots kept things to themselves. Aviation safety is one of the best communities I've been a part of.

If what I've read here and other places is correct about EK, their approach is nothing new... It is outdated, the old way of doing things which (through hundreds of deaths over the years) led to the safety climate we have today.

Which other airline has terrifying mistakes like this EK flight? Kind of telling that these incidents are rare, no? There is a lot that goes into it, it's a complex subject

This is what can happen when you hire a lot of the skilled labor internationally on contracts. You don’t get the decades of experience moving up from entry level to the top of the company.
 
Gatorman96
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:34 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Blue Panorama. Rome. 2004.

There was no fuel dumping system. I am not pulling stuff from thin air.

You can see in this image that the accident aircraft in question clearly had the ability to dump fuel (left wingtip just behind the “EI” in the reg, you can see the fuel dump nozzle)

https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Blue_Panorama_Airlines_Boeing_767-3G5(ER)_EI-CXO_Flying_Over_My_Rooftop_(8201885887).jpg
Image
(Photo credit: Faisal Akram, original image)
 
Gremlinzzzz
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:45 pm

Gatorman96 wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Blue Panorama. Rome. 2004.

There was no fuel dumping system. I am not pulling stuff from thin air.

You can see in this image that the accident aircraft in question clearly had the ability to dump fuel (left wingtip just behind the “EI” in the reg, you can see the fuel dump nozzle)

https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Blue_Panorama_Airlines_Boeing_767-3G5(ER)_EI-CXO_Flying_Over_My_Rooftop_(8201885887).jpg
Image
(Photo credit: Faisal Akram, original image)

I went with what I read, presented that including the accident report referenced.
 
goosebayguy
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 8:46 pm

Automation didn't save the Gimli Glider. It was very finely attuned piloting skills that saved lives
 
BoeingG
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:38 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Aquila3 wrote:
Following all the evidence so far presented, why FAA/EASA/others do NOT downgrade Emirates and/or UAE operators in their ruled airspace on safety concerns? It was done in the past for much less, as I understand.

I had a post taken down, and I was not going to reply.

My thinking, there is a lot o casual racism that goes on over here that people might not even be aware of.

There is someone that states that this is an enterprise that is stuck in the 12th century. Off site, I asked what this means. Does it mean that if you make a mistake you never have to answer? Or what is it, going by some of what has been posted, making an error so serious as the one made just because someone did not take time to counter check should be solved by simply putting a company wide memo. Do people really understand what is at stake? Human lives. Sometimes you sack people and send a message out on what to watch out for.

You then have people coming in and having an opinion that there is not a lot of meritocracy. Why on Earth would anyone expect to go and work in another country and believe that they would not want to promote their own first and foremost? This is the freaking aviation industry where most nations will not even let you own a majority stake if you are not from the same country or even the same trading block like EU. So yes, they promote their own and my thinking is that in time they would want to have Emiratis running most aspects of the airline. What is wrong in that?

I have similarly seen some opine that there is an issue with ATC and maintenance. Since Emirates started off in 1985, they have one hull loss that led to loss of life on the ground. There is a FlyDubai fatal accident in Russia and they have not had the runway issues that we have seen in the US or Europe. Outside this, they have fewer crashes than most other countries despite flying a tonne of miles each year. All the 'poor practices' have not led to a maintenance associated crash, yet we have had so many of these in the US and even Japan Airlines. Poor training as pointed out so many times on this topic has not led to what one would assume would be a crash every so often to justify this stance.

We are also told that these pilots might not have the skills. This company flies into monsoon country, and even in England when storms are bad, they have no problems landing planes without issue. Maybe, they are doing something right as opposed to what is parroted and repeated on here. Why else would you also see people bringing standards like 'the FAA does this, and US airlines do that' as if this is the standard everyone has to aspire to achieve? I tried pointing this out without going into detail, drawing parallels with ET302, how that was covered in the media, US hearings before Boeing admitted that they had an issue. It is so ingrained in some that there is one way of doing things. It is a blinkered way of looking at things and imagining that other people have nothing to contribute rather than copy the would be standard bearers. It is so common that some might not even see the folly in this type of thinking.

Different cultures evolve differently, and different companies behave differently. People need to stop behaving like there is only one way of doing things and getting the desired results. That said, it does not mean that the ME3 do not have issues. Those issues are aspects one needs to be comfortable with when they go to work there, otherwise, stay at home.



"My thinking, there is a lot o casual racism that goes on over here that people might not even be aware of."


This claim is unfounded.

People need to stop behaving like there is only one way of doing things and getting the desired results.


Universal safety standards exist for a reason. Compromising on these regulations jeopardizes countless lives. If a carrier can't meet them then it ought not be entitled to lawful airspace–regardless of nationality. It's a simple concept.
 
reltney
Posts: 738
Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2004 1:34 am

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:28 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
reltney wrote:
It’s simple as this…. FLY the PLANE.

Are people forgetting how to fly or never taught in the first place….that is the question of the day.


It's not so much pilots forgetting to fly. It's pilots not being allowed to. First off in EK long haul they only get a few sectors per month as PF.

And then you have a punitive culture which not only demands automation but pretty much wants to eradicate any "flying out of the box" ie on LNAV/VNAV as much as possible, no track shortening, no creativity. Just do what the FMC and ATC tell you to do.

Any attempt at thinking out of the box and the slightest mistake and you are immediately dismissed without investigation. It's a 12th century justice system in a 2021 global carrier.

Wouldn't surprise me to think the crew on the Flight Deck decided to continue to IAD rather than return to DXB lest they draw attention to their mistake. It's a culture of fear and cover ups.


True and sad. The termination thing is idiotic at the highest levels. I am a super long haul pilot for the last 10 years and because I am, I teach them to fly the plane and back up with automation. If you can’t fly, you cannot use automation. As for proficiency, I actually was the high landing pilot for 2 years on thr 747-400. 30 landings in 2 years. I think out of the box and teach others to do so. Any other formula is trouble…. No, how much automation do I use? I takeoff flying manually with flight directors and auto throttles until climbing above 10000 ft. Sometimes all the way up to cruise I’ll hand fly and it’s legal in RVSM as long as you don’t Intermediately level off. If work load is high, autopilot comes on around 2000-5000 ft. Somewhere in decent if workload permits, autopilot is off about 18000 . Autothrottles off about 10000 ft and I’ll do 2-3 landings with manual brakes then 1-2 with auto brakes.

I stay proficient in both manual flying and full up automation. If an airline doesn’t allow it, that airline is a questionable airline.

Cheers…
 
Max Q
Posts: 9193
Joined: Wed May 09, 2001 12:40 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:43 pm

reltney wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
reltney wrote:
It’s simple as this…. FLY the PLANE.

Are people forgetting how to fly or never taught in the first place….that is the question of the day.


It's not so much pilots forgetting to fly. It's pilots not being allowed to. First off in EK long haul they only get a few sectors per month as PF.

And then you have a punitive culture which not only demands automation but pretty much wants to eradicate any "flying out of the box" ie on LNAV/VNAV as much as possible, no track shortening, no creativity. Just do what the FMC and ATC tell you to do.

Any attempt at thinking out of the box and the slightest mistake and you are immediately dismissed without investigation. It's a 12th century justice system in a 2021 global carrier.

Wouldn't surprise me to think the crew on the Flight Deck decided to continue to IAD rather than return to DXB lest they draw attention to their mistake. It's a culture of fear and cover ups.


True and sad. The termination thing is idiotic at the highest levels. I am a super long haul pilot for the last 10 years and because I am, I teach them to fly the plane and back up with automation. If you can’t fly, you cannot use automation. As for proficiency, I actually was the high landing pilot for 2 years on thr 747-400. 30 landings in 2 years. I think out of the box and teach others to do so. Any other formula is trouble…. No, how much automation do I use? I takeoff flying manually with flight directors and auto throttles until climbing above 10000 ft. Sometimes all the way up to cruise I’ll hand fly and it’s legal in RVSM as long as you don’t Intermediately level off. If work load is high, autopilot comes on around 2000-5000 ft. Somewhere in decent if workload permits, autopilot is off about 18000 . Autothrottles off about 10000 ft and I’ll do 2-3 landings with manual brakes then 1-2 with auto brakes.

I stay proficient in both manual flying and full up automation. If an airline doesn’t allow it, that airline is a questionable airline.

Cheers…




Super long haul, great stuff
 
B737MAX
Posts: 49
Joined: Fri Nov 09, 2018 4:11 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:55 pm

I fail to understand how such a scenario is possible. This is extremely poor situational awareness, from the beginning to the end.

Scary, very scary.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 15624
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:05 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
What do people think will happen in aviation? That there will be no incidents and accidents? That is an impossible ask, in an industry that has way too many moving parts and different parties that rely on one another to offer service. So you look to have minimal crash landings and hope that incidents remain manageable and minimal. This is all someone could ask for if they are being realistic.


What you seem to be missing is that accidents are not a terribly useful datum because they are (thankfully) extremely low frequency and somewhat random.

Was AA extremely unsafe in early 2002 because they had had three fatal hull losses in the preceding year? No one serious would suggest that. And a lack of accidents or hull losses or fatalities is hardly more probative of a good safety culture.
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 860
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:26 pm

Another factor not being discussed - fatigue. It was a 0225 local time departure.

It was a factor in FZ981:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35855678

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... s-flydubai

Given the last two years of pandemic rules pilots have been largely kept in hotel rooms in layovers and subject to all kinds of additional measures like testing, quarantine etc that add to stress which is a factor in fatigue. The simple act of getting out of a hotel room and walking around on a layover is a fantastic tool to manage stress and reduce fatigue, but that has largely been denied to pilots for two years without a care what the long term effect would be. Eventually it will catch up to them.
 
11C
Posts: 390
Joined: Mon Jun 17, 2019 2:25 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:39 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
zkojq wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:

It's not so much pilots forgetting to fly. It's pilots not being allowed to.

And then you have a punitive culture which not only demands automation but pretty much wants to eradicate any "flying out of the box" ie on LNAV/VNAV as much as possible, no track shortening, no creativity. Just do what the FMC and ATC tell you to do.


:checkmark: Exactly, it's a dire indictment of what management thinks of their pilot group's abilities when they don't even trust them enough to be able to fly a raw data approach or use manual thrust.

At the end of the day, the degradation of hand flying skills is something that every Training Department should be proactively trying to counter. Allowing crew to hand fly an approach or departure where/when it's appropriate to do so goes a long way to achieving this. Ignoring the issue or pretending it's not happening is obviously not going to solve anything.

Though, to be fair, EK is far from the only carrier to do such practices. Especially with LCCs, it's fairly common to highly discourage if not completely disallow the use of anything but the highest level of automation in non-emergency situations. A worrying trend but one that's not new.

Give EK's route network, you do wonder how often crew are faced with, for example, having to fly a VOR Approach and how much the "average" crew would struggle with doing so.

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Any attempt at thinking out of the box and the slightest mistake and you are immediately dismissed without investigation. It's a 12th century justice system in a 2021 global carrier.

:checkmark:

Completely the antithesis of an open safety culture. I find these issues really fascinating. I often wonder how long it would take to instill a healthy safety culture in a large pilot group like Emirates' even if you suddenly had the right people in leadership positions starting tomorrow. Not really something that can be changed quickly. It's one thing to allow crew members to hand fly an approach. It's quite another for them to actually do so for fear of management repercussions if they mess something up and are forced to execute a go around.
By the way, some on this site overrate hand flying and underestimate why an airline would want to minimize pilots flying aircraft. Or the fact that majority of pilots embrace automation, as do aviation authorities worldwide.

Some may not like to listen to that, or even admit it. When there was more hand flying, there were more accidents caused by human error more than anything else. So why on Earth would you not encourage your staff to actually use automation?

Aviation is safer today than it has ever been because of automation.


Automation is the classic double edged sword. It can hurt you as much as it can help you. In any case, when it fails, pilots still need proficiency in flying the degraded modes. That takes plenty of practice. Anyone who fears turning off the automation should not be in command of that aircraft. Automation has probably helped make aviation safer, but it is far more complicated than you describe. Accidents are still largely caused by human error, but it still often comes down to poor judgement, not lack of automation.
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 1141
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:49 am

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Gatorman96 wrote:
Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Blue Panorama. Rome. 2004.

There was no fuel dumping system. I am not pulling stuff from thin air.

You can see in this image that the accident aircraft in question clearly had the ability to dump fuel (left wingtip just behind the “EI” in the reg, you can see the fuel dump nozzle)

https://commons.m.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Blue_Panorama_Airlines_Boeing_767-3G5(ER)_EI-CXO_Flying_Over_My_Rooftop_(8201885887).jpg
Image
(Photo credit: Faisal Akram, original image)

I went with what I read, presented that including the accident report referenced.

Can you present the exact wording?

Inability to jettison fuel does not mean that the plane was not fitted with a fuel dumping system. In this case, it was very obvious that the situation does not allow for fuel to be dumped, else a spread of the fire/explosion and subsequent crash would had occurred. Ironically this event further highlights the need for a human to react without automation.
 
ayirpamar
Posts: 2
Joined: Sat Jan 01, 2022 5:33 am

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:17 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Another factor not being discussed - fatigue. It was a 0225 local time departure.


I can understand how it can be during the latter phases but can fatigue be a factor even at the start of a fresh leg when it isn't a stopover?
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 1141
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:17 am

ayirpamar wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Another factor not being discussed - fatigue. It was a 0225 local time departure.


I can understand how it can be during the latter phases but can fatigue be a factor even at the start of a fresh leg when it isn't a stopover?

0225 is right smack in the middle of the deep sleep part of a human's circadian rythmn. This is why there is a disproportionate number of road accidents vs traffic volume during this period (2-4 am)
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 15624
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:32 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
ayirpamar wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Another factor not being discussed - fatigue. It was a 0225 local time departure.


I can understand how it can be during the latter phases but can fatigue be a factor even at the start of a fresh leg when it isn't a stopover?

0225 is right smack in the middle of the deep sleep part of a human's circadian rythmn. This is why there is a disproportionate number of road accidents vs traffic volume during this period (2-4 am)


Perhaps this is a hair off topic, but do you have a link on the causal link between fatigue and nighttime auto accidents? The fatigue situation is similar between autos and aircraft, but the percentage of intoxicated drivers is a lot higher at that hour and intoxication isn't--or shouldn't be--an issue amongst pilots.
 
jeffrey0032j
Posts: 1141
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:11 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:55 am

Cubsrule wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
ayirpamar wrote:

I can understand how it can be during the latter phases but can fatigue be a factor even at the start of a fresh leg when it isn't a stopover?

0225 is right smack in the middle of the deep sleep part of a human's circadian rythmn. This is why there is a disproportionate number of road accidents vs traffic volume during this period (2-4 am)


Perhaps this is a hair off topic, but do you have a link on the causal link between fatigue and nighttime auto accidents? The fatigue situation is similar between autos and aircraft, but the percentage of intoxicated drivers is a lot higher at that hour and intoxication isn't--or shouldn't be--an issue amongst pilots.

One that is a little old, and specific for truck drivers, although this is a group least likely to drink.

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.10 ... 4-2529-1_8
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 15624
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:00 am

jeffrey0032j wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
jeffrey0032j wrote:
0225 is right smack in the middle of the deep sleep part of a human's circadian rythmn. This is why there is a disproportionate number of road accidents vs traffic volume during this period (2-4 am)


Perhaps this is a hair off topic, but do you have a link on the causal link between fatigue and nighttime auto accidents? The fatigue situation is similar between autos and aircraft, but the percentage of intoxicated drivers is a lot higher at that hour and intoxication isn't--or shouldn't be--an issue amongst pilots.

One that is a little old, and specific for truck drivers, although this is a group least likely to drink.

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.10 ... 4-2529-1_8


Thank you! That's exactly what I was looking for.
 
9w748capt
Posts: 1880
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 10:27 am

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:18 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
Another factor not being discussed - fatigue. It was a 0225 local time departure.

It was a factor in FZ981:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35855678

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... s-flydubai

Given the last two years of pandemic rules pilots have been largely kept in hotel rooms in layovers and subject to all kinds of additional measures like testing, quarantine etc that add to stress which is a factor in fatigue. The simple act of getting out of a hotel room and walking around on a layover is a fantastic tool to manage stress and reduce fatigue, but that has largely been denied to pilots for two years without a care what the long term effect would be. Eventually it will catch up to them.



Idk - if a 0225 departure time is unsafe then that's going to cause global problems. That's a pretty normal departure time for westbound long-hauls. Surely EK pilots plan their daily (nightly) routines as best they can, given their regularly irregular schedules.
 
AABusDrvr
Posts: 195
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 6:48 am

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:56 am

ayirpamar wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Another factor not being discussed - fatigue. It was a 0225 local time departure.


I can understand how it can be during the latter phases but can fatigue be a factor even at the start of a fresh leg when it isn't a stopover?


Fatigue can be a factor at any time, including at the beginning of a flight sequence. Sleep debt can be a real issue.



9w748capt wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Another factor not being discussed - fatigue. It was a 0225 local time departure.

It was a factor in FZ981:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35855678

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... s-flydubai

Given the last two years of pandemic rules pilots have been largely kept in hotel rooms in layovers and subject to all kinds of additional measures like testing, quarantine etc that add to stress which is a factor in fatigue. The simple act of getting out of a hotel room and walking around on a layover is a fantastic tool to manage stress and reduce fatigue, but that has largely been denied to pilots for two years without a care what the long term effect would be. Eventually it will catch up to them.



Idk - if a 0225 departure time is unsafe then that's going to cause global problems. That's a pretty normal departure time for westbound long-hauls. Surely EK pilots plan their daily (nightly) routines as best they can, given their regularly irregular schedules.



02:00-6:00 is commonly accepted as the window of circadian low (WOCL), or the period of maximum sleepiness for a person on a "normal" 24 hour cycle. Prime time for fatigue induced errors.
 
Eikie
Posts: 167
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:01 am

9w748capt wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Another factor not being discussed - fatigue. It was a 0225 local time departure.

It was a factor in FZ981:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35855678

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... s-flydubai

Given the last two years of pandemic rules pilots have been largely kept in hotel rooms in layovers and subject to all kinds of additional measures like testing, quarantine etc that add to stress which is a factor in fatigue. The simple act of getting out of a hotel room and walking around on a layover is a fantastic tool to manage stress and reduce fatigue, but that has largely been denied to pilots for two years without a care what the long term effect would be. Eventually it will catch up to them.



Idk - if a 0225 departure time is unsafe then that's going to cause global problems. That's a pretty normal departure time for westbound long-hauls. Surely EK pilots plan their daily (nightly) routines as best they can, given their regularly irregular schedules.
It doesn't make it unsafe in itself, but it is one of the many holes in the cheese.
Humans are proven to be less alert, slower and just overall less productive at those hours. Combined with the correct procedures, company culture, training, etc you can mostly mitigate those negative things, but they can still play a part, especially when things are not going as expected or other factors start popping up.
 
Desertboki
Posts: 11
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:26 am

9w748capt wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Another factor not being discussed - fatigue. It was a 0225 local time departure.

It was a factor in FZ981:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35855678

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... s-flydubai

Given the last two years of pandemic rules pilots have been largely kept in hotel rooms in layovers and subject to all kinds of additional measures like testing, quarantine etc that add to stress which is a factor in fatigue. The simple act of getting out of a hotel room and walking around on a layover is a fantastic tool to manage stress and reduce fatigue, but that has largely been denied to pilots for two years without a care what the long term effect would be. Eventually it will catch up to them.[/quote

Idk - if a 0225 departure time is unsafe then that's going to cause global problems. That's a pretty normal departure time for westbound long-hauls. Surely EK pilots plan their daily (nightly) routines as best they can, given their regularly irregular schedules.


Fatigue was a huge issue in the crash of FZ981. The report time itself is not the issue. It’s the environment in which it is in, operating at max FTLs at that time constantly.Your westbound example would not have to get a weather delay landing. Then de ice and another weather delay departing. Flydubai operate like this, landing back at 11-12pm with minimum rest then to do it all again the next night. 18 hours off into a day flight. Over time this causes huge fatigue. You do not see euro carriers doing 2 sector night turn around to Eastern Europe. Would you see an American airline for example JetBlue operate JFK -DEN-JFK with a sign on at 1am departing at 2am landing back at mid day ?
 
MartijnNL
Posts: 1138
Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 11:44 am

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 10:16 am

In the meantime Emirates is named safest airline in the world.
https://www.dpa-international.com/topic ... -99-570905
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 15624
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:01 pm

MartijnNL wrote:
In the meantime Emirates is named safest airline in the world.
https://www.dpa-international.com/topic ... -99-570905


What is DPA International?
 
Noshow
Posts: 3219
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:03 pm

I wouldn't take any JACDEC statistics too serious. They have a history of switching their hobbyist methodology back and forth.
DPA is a news agency like AP. They should finally come to the same conclusion.
 
joeblow10
Posts: 729
Joined: Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:58 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:06 pm

Desertboki wrote:
9w748capt wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
Another factor not being discussed - fatigue. It was a 0225 local time departure.

It was a factor in FZ981:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35855678

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... s-flydubai

Given the last two years of pandemic rules pilots have been largely kept in hotel rooms in layovers and subject to all kinds of additional measures like testing, quarantine etc that add to stress which is a factor in fatigue. The simple act of getting out of a hotel room and walking around on a layover is a fantastic tool to manage stress and reduce fatigue, but that has largely been denied to pilots for two years without a care what the long term effect would be. Eventually it will catch up to them.[/quote

Idk - if a 0225 departure time is unsafe then that's going to cause global problems. That's a pretty normal departure time for westbound long-hauls. Surely EK pilots plan their daily (nightly) routines as best they can, given their regularly irregular schedules.


Fatigue was a huge issue in the crash of FZ981. The report time itself is not the issue. It’s the environment in which it is in, operating at max FTLs at that time constantly.Your westbound example would not have to get a weather delay landing. Then de ice and another weather delay departing. Flydubai operate like this, landing back at 11-12pm with minimum rest then to do it all again the next night. 18 hours off into a day flight. Over time this causes huge fatigue. You do not see euro carriers doing 2 sector night turn around to Eastern Europe. Would you see an American airline for example JetBlue operate JFK -DEN-JFK with a sign on at 1am departing at 2am landing back at mid day ?


In the US it is actually quite common to do something like this except the first departure is around 8-9pm, landing back at 5-6am the next morning. The most “extreme” examples I’ve seen are things like G4 doing 11pm redeyes out of LAS to ATW and other places, not returning until 8-9am the next morning. Those trips aren’t exactly structured to reduce fatigue - though not to FlyDubai levels
 
32andBelow
Posts: 6150
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2012 2:54 am

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:25 pm

joeblow10 wrote:
Desertboki wrote:
9w748capt wrote:


Fatigue was a huge issue in the crash of FZ981. The report time itself is not the issue. It’s the environment in which it is in, operating at max FTLs at that time constantly.Your westbound example would not have to get a weather delay landing. Then de ice and another weather delay departing. Flydubai operate like this, landing back at 11-12pm with minimum rest then to do it all again the next night. 18 hours off into a day flight. Over time this causes huge fatigue. You do not see euro carriers doing 2 sector night turn around to Eastern Europe. Would you see an American airline for example JetBlue operate JFK -DEN-JFK with a sign on at 1am departing at 2am landing back at mid day ?


In the US it is actually quite common to do something like this except the first departure is around 8-9pm, landing back at 5-6am the next morning. The most “extreme” examples I’ve seen are things like G4 doing 11pm redeyes out of LAS to ATW and other places, not returning until 8-9am the next morning. Those trips aren’t exactly structured to reduce fatigue - though not to FlyDubai levels
the US time and duty regs some what address this tho. Depending on your show time you have less available duty hours and each leg further reduces your available duty hours. You also cannot work more than 3 consecutive days during your circadian Low
 
User avatar
Revelation
Posts: 27445
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:35 pm

Gremlinzzzz wrote:
Are they dealing with it or not? They are prepared and handling it. When was the last time you consistently saw a plane brought down by such? We really are arguing for the sake of it.

That's your perception. My perception is that you're continuously changing the argument to suite your narrative. In particular you wrote "With automation, he will rarely have to intervene unless you have a Qantas 72 edge of the envelope case scenario" and when I showed manual intervention for TCAS RA was not an edge of the envelope scenario you could have simply thanked me for the correction because you are now admitting I am right and manual intervention is not an edge of the envelope thing, but instead you try to change the argument to the accident rate.

Bottom line is you now tacitly admit intervention is not an "edge of the envelope" thing which totally destroys your earlier argument saying manual flying skills are not important.
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 860
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Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:21 am

MartijnNL wrote:
In the meantime Emirates is named safest airline in the world.
https://www.dpa-international.com/topic ... -99-570905


Who are this JACDEC group? What is their methodology? They are not transparent.

Here's their 2020 rankings:

https://www.jacdec.de/Order/2020_JACDEC ... gq_ENG.pdf

What a laugh!

Emirates the only airline in the top 18 with a hull loss in the last decade but still takes the #1 position?
Swiss Air at #51!
Lufthansa at #56!
FlyDubai ranks higher than Scandanavian!
Jetstar 14 places higher than Qantas!
Korean Air higher than Alaskan and Southwest!
Jet2.com 41 places higher than BA!

Which 12 year old compiled those "rankings"? Or how much did Emirates pay that company?
 
santi319
Posts: 1265
Joined: Thu Dec 29, 2005 3:24 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Tue Jan 04, 2022 1:35 am

sierrakilo44 wrote:
MartijnNL wrote:
In the meantime Emirates is named safest airline in the world.
https://www.dpa-international.com/topic ... -99-570905


Who are this JACDEC group? What is their methodology? They are not transparent.

Here's their 2020 rankings:

https://www.jacdec.de/Order/2020_JACDEC ... gq_ENG.pdf

What a laugh!

Emirates the only airline in the top 18 with a hull loss in the last decade but still takes the #1 position?
Swiss Air at #51!
Lufthansa at #56!
FlyDubai ranks higher than Scandanavian!
Jetstar 14 places higher than Qantas!
Korean Air higher than Alaskan and Southwest!
Jet2.com 41 places higher than BA!

Which 12 year old compiled those "rankings"? Or how much did Emirates pay that company?


The fact that the #1 Emirates has 33 incidents and the last one Garuda has 32 incidents makes absolutely no sense.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 1381
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:01 am

santi319 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:
MartijnNL wrote:
In the meantime Emirates is named safest airline in the world.
https://www.dpa-international.com/topic ... -99-570905


Who are this JACDEC group? What is their methodology? They are not transparent.

Here's their 2020 rankings:

https://www.jacdec.de/Order/2020_JACDEC ... gq_ENG.pdf

What a laugh!

Emirates the only airline in the top 18 with a hull loss in the last decade but still takes the #1 position?
Swiss Air at #51!
Lufthansa at #56!
FlyDubai ranks higher than Scandanavian!
Jetstar 14 places higher than Qantas!
Korean Air higher than Alaskan and Southwest!
Jet2.com 41 places higher than BA!

Which 12 year old compiled those "rankings"? Or how much did Emirates pay that company?


The fact that the #1 Emirates has 33 incidents and the last one Garuda has 32 incidents makes absolutely no sense.


According to their website they use RPK as base and a time weighting factor.

So if you take that and the pandemic into account, the whole thing is worthless because airlines that kept flying during the pandemic (even if empty) generated way more RPK. This helped to generate nice safety score for the year compared to airlines that had very reduced flying that could not generate good score. Combine this with the time weighting factor and airlines that flew a lot last year compared to their piers will be catapulted upwards even if they had lots of incidents.

Then they also pop in environmental factors like topography and weather???
 
Kiwiandrew
Posts: 128
Joined: Wed Oct 23, 2019 10:06 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:13 am

FluidFlow wrote:
santi319 wrote:
sierrakilo44 wrote:

Who are this JACDEC group? What is their methodology? They are not transparent.

Here's their 2020 rankings:

https://www.jacdec.de/Order/2020_JACDEC ... gq_ENG.pdf

What a laugh!

Emirates the only airline in the top 18 with a hull loss in the last decade but still takes the #1 position?
Swiss Air at #51!
Lufthansa at #56!
FlyDubai ranks higher than Scandanavian!
Jetstar 14 places higher than Qantas!
Korean Air higher than Alaskan and Southwest!
Jet2.com 41 places higher than BA!

Which 12 year old compiled those "rankings"? Or how much did Emirates pay that company?


The fact that the #1 Emirates has 33 incidents and the last one Garuda has 32 incidents makes absolutely no sense.


According to their website they use RPK as base and a time weighting factor.

So if you take that and the pandemic into account, the whole thing is worthless because airlines that kept flying during the pandemic (even if empty) generated way more RPK. This helped to generate nice safety score for the year compared to airlines that had very reduced flying that could not generate good score. Combine this with the time weighting factor and airlines that flew a lot last year compared to their piers will be catapulted upwards even if they had lots of incidents.

Then they also pop in environmental factors like topography and weather???


Isn't RPK REVENUE passenger kilometre ? Therefore, empty seats would not be counted as there is no revenue ( Though I still think the survey itself looks pretty dodgy ).
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 1381
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Tue Jan 04, 2022 8:20 am

Kiwiandrew wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
santi319 wrote:

The fact that the #1 Emirates has 33 incidents and the last one Garuda has 32 incidents makes absolutely no sense.


According to their website they use RPK as base and a time weighting factor.

So if you take that and the pandemic into account, the whole thing is worthless because airlines that kept flying during the pandemic (even if empty) generated way more RPK. This helped to generate nice safety score for the year compared to airlines that had very reduced flying that could not generate good score. Combine this with the time weighting factor and airlines that flew a lot last year compared to their piers will be catapulted upwards even if they had lots of incidents.

Then they also pop in environmental factors like topography and weather???


Isn't RPK REVENUE passenger kilometre ? Therefore, empty seats would not be counted as there is no revenue ( Though I still think the survey itself looks pretty dodgy ).


Yeah but especially with RPK, the airlines that flew generated way more RPK. In 2020 on the height of the travel restrictions flying through the middle east was often the only way to get anywhere. So Emirates had it easy to generate RPKs compared to Lufthansa for example. A 20% load factor on a 777 flying long haul generates way more RPK than no or almost no flying for all the European airlines.
Interestingly enough long haul international flying also seems less risky due to their way of "calculating" so when countries where shut they had no chance of improving scores so the "old" score weighted very heavy while all the airlines that did flew could create very good new score (if they did not create incidents in 2020 of course).
 
sierrakilo44
Posts: 860
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:38 am

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Tue Jan 04, 2022 12:56 pm

The whole idea of apportioning a risk rating to individual airlines is a bit silly in 2022.

If you think of the last 10 years. What fatal incidents have there been on carriers in which the majority of posters on this forum would class as relatively "safe"?

2013
Asiana 214

2014
Transasia 222
Malaysian 370 and 17
Airasia 8501

2015
Transasia 235
Germanwings 9525
Metrojet 9268

2016
Egyptair 802

2017
Westwind 282

2018
Southwest 1380
Lion Max

2019
Ethiopian 302
Aeroflot 1492

The rest I'd probably skip. And I'm drawing a long bow on calling some of those "safe". In the last 10 years there's been 315 million scheduled flight departures for total of 14 fatal incidents on carriers most would consider to be reputable enough to not be crashing. How can we then calculate the absolute risk of dying per carrier? There's just not enough crashes out there to make a sample. And fatal incidents in of themselves are the be all and end all of safety, I'd rather board a Southwest or Germanwings(now EuroWings) flight over a lot of other carriers that have remained accident free in the last then years.
 
User avatar
DeltaMD90
Posts: 9078
Joined: Tue Apr 15, 2008 11:25 pm

Re: Emirates serious incident on takeoff on EK231 DXB-IAD on 20 December 2021

Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:22 pm

sierrakilo44 wrote:
The whole idea of apportioning a risk rating to individual airlines is a bit silly in 2022.

If you think of the last 10 years. What fatal incidents have there been on carriers in which the majority of posters on this forum would class as relatively "safe"?

2013
Asiana 214

2014
Transasia 222
Malaysian 370 and 17
Airasia 8501

2015
Transasia 235
Germanwings 9525
Metrojet 9268

2016
Egyptair 802

2017
Westwind 282

2018
Southwest 1380
Lion Max

2019
Ethiopian 302
Aeroflot 1492

The rest I'd probably skip. And I'm drawing a long bow on calling some of those "safe". In the last 10 years there's been 315 million scheduled flight departures for total of 14 fatal incidents on carriers most would consider to be reputable enough to not be crashing. How can we then calculate the absolute risk of dying per carrier? There's just not enough crashes out there to make a sample. And fatal incidents in of themselves are the be all and end all of safety, I'd rather board a Southwest or Germanwings(now EuroWings) flight over a lot of other carriers that have remained accident free in the last then years.

Fatal accidents are just a fraction of the equation. Major incidents (such as this EK incident) I'd argue are just as bad or 95% as bad from a safety prospective. Thankfully no one died, but it was so, so close. That definitely "counts"

But beyond that, minor incidents and routine maintenance violations contribute greatly. If you have a culture of shoddy maintenance or poor CRM, that's where danger creeps in.

That all is hard to quantify. Luckily, most airlines in this age recognize these threats and are constantly working to combat them.

Without the company internals and taking a whole lot of time for nuanced research, you can't really get a good outlook or resort to lazy metrics like "fatal accidents." That's why I often take these ratings and awards with a grain of salt

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