DeltaMD90 wrote:sierrakilo44 wrote:The whole idea of apportioning a risk rating to individual airlines is a bit silly in 2022.
If you think of the last 10 years. What fatal incidents have there been on carriers in which the majority of posters on this forum would class as relatively "safe"?
Malaysian 370 and 17
The rest I'd probably skip. And I'm drawing a long bow on calling some of those "safe". In the last 10 years there's been 315 million scheduled flight departures for total of 14 fatal incidents on carriers most would consider to be reputable enough to not be crashing. How can we then calculate the absolute risk of dying per carrier? There's just not enough crashes out there to make a sample. And fatal incidents in of themselves are the be all and end all of safety, I'd rather board a Southwest or Germanwings(now EuroWings) flight over a lot of other carriers that have remained accident free in the last then years.
Fatal accidents are just a fraction of the equation. Major incidents (such as this EK incident) I'd argue are just as bad or 95% as bad from a safety prospective. Thankfully no one died, but it was so, so close. That definitely "counts"
But beyond that, minor incidents and routine maintenance violations contribute greatly. If you have a culture of shoddy maintenance or poor CRM, that's where danger creeps in.
That all is hard to quantify. Luckily, most airlines in this age recognize these threats and are constantly working to combat them.
Without the company internals and taking a whole lot of time for nuanced research, you can't really get a good outlook or resort to lazy metrics like "fatal accidents." That's why I often take these ratings and awards with a grain of salt
An interesting question is how much further safety can reasonably pushed and what needs to be done. While some accidents are coming from unpredictable scenarios, where hindsight seems to be the best available option, there seem to be another pattern when a well-predicted scenario is at play. Deviation from established and checked situation, failure to perform a time-critical action, failure to follow up on a previous incident.
So maybe some adjustments are there to expect?