The South China Morning Post is reporting that due to a change in quarantine requirements for air crew from 3 days confinement at a designated hotel to 7 days, Cathay Pacific is having to suspend "all 747 and cargo-only passenger flight layover operations" for 7 days with immediate effect.

The article cites an internal memo from CX's Director of Flight Operations.

“We cannot transition to closed loop operations overnight and we need to take a breather to fully consider all dependencies, including hotel room availability, which is critical,” airline director of flight operations Chris Kempis said.

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hon ... ic-aircrew

It is quite shocking how insane Hong Kong's rules are and the lengths it will go to to appease the mainland.

Am I the only one who thinks that with the mainland tightening the screws on HK, that the days of CX's heyday are in the past and it'll die a slow, lingering death?

johns624 wrote:

Am I the only one who thinks that with the mainland tightening the screws on HK, that the days of CX's heyday are in the past and it'll die a slow, lingering death?

I think it’s pretty clear that unless things in HK change dramatically (unlikely) CX’s heyday is behind them. And I’m not talking about just Covid policies.

Polot wrote:

johns624 wrote:

Am I the only one who thinks that with the mainland tightening the screws on HK, that the days of CX's heyday are in the past and it'll die a slow, lingering death?

I think it’s pretty clear that unless things in HK change dramatically (unlikely) CX’s heyday is behind them. And I’m not talking about just Covid policies.

Along with Hong Kong’s heydays…..

johns624 wrote:

Am I the only one who thinks that with the mainland tightening the screws on HK, that the days of CX's heyday are in the past and it'll die a slow, lingering death?

The HK authorities' requirements causing CX to have to suspend flights are about Covid control - although these requirements are considerably more severe than those in most other countries, I don't see that they are necessarily a direct result of the (China) "mainland tightening the screws on HK".

China is the world's biggest economy. Not saying that I agree with what's happening in HongKong, but I also think that as the HongKong flagship carrier, although CX may change hugely in the coming years, it seems unlikely that they'll be forced into any slow, lingering death.

bwvilla wrote:

johns624 wrote:

Am I the only one who thinks that with the mainland tightening the screws on HK, that the days of CX's heyday are in the past and it'll die a slow, lingering death?

The HK authorities' requirements causing CX to have to suspend flights are about Covid control - although these requirements are considerably more severe than those in most other countries, I don't see that they are necessarily a direct result of the (China) "mainland tightening the screws on HK".

China is the world's biggest economy. Not saying that I agree with what's happening in HongKong, but I also think that as the HongKong flagship carrier, although CX may change hugely in the coming years, it seems unlikely that they'll be forced into any slow, lingering death.

True - this is ultimately about COVID control. But in the big picture, that's actually what concerns me. China's extremely severe zero-COVID policy is becoming increasingly discrepant with the rest of the world. Most of the other countries are adopting the "vaccinate to tolerate spread" -policy, which China seems to have no interest in adopting. So effectively, should this go on, they are isolating themselves from the rest of the world.

The implications of that can potentially be huge. Either China will accept some internal turmoil in form of allowing COVID to eventually spread in the country with the help of vaccines to a similar degree as in the rest of the world, or then they will keep on isolating themselves from others. That, obviously, would have huge, lasting impacts on Chinese (&HK) aviation sector.

At the moment, I'm not sure which way China will go. Opening up to the virus, or isolating themselves (at least semi-permanently) from the world.

I realise Covid is a real thing and I understand the need for restrictions (although I’m sick of them), Hong Kong is totally bananas, three weeks in a quarantine hotel for arrivals from most countries, two weeks for a handful. And that’s with a negative test result and proof of jabs. Absolutely crazy.

johns624 wrote:

Am I the only one who thinks that with the mainland tightening the screws on HK, that the days of CX's heyday are in the past and it'll die a slow, lingering death?

Correct. Beijing want the business to go to Air China and China Southern. Very sad. Cathay has been shorthand for the best service and a spotless safety record for decades, top of the pile. Death of a legend.

This is very clearly not about COVID control.

Hong Kong is showing the world how to deal with this virus. This is the only solution. Hard, but true. We have to accept it.

Good on Hong Kong!

DeltaWings wrote:

Hong Kong is showing the world how to deal with this virus. This is the only solution. Hard, but true. We have to accept it.

Good on Hong Kong!

Disagree. From a US perspective, the virus is out of containment. It is not appropriate to shut down society anymore. Get vaccinated and get on with living life.

DeltaWings wrote:

Hong Kong is showing the world how to deal with this virus. This is the only solution. Hard, but true. We have to accept it.

Good on Hong Kong!

By continuing to isolate itself in a bubble? Sure...it may work for mainland as it's still a large economy that's somewhat self-sustainable (and even that part can be questionable), but for a city like HK which is dependent on imports/exports and capital (money and goods) flow? Not so much. And even mainland is seeing outbreaks here and there (albeit at a relatively small level) with draconian restrictions!

If anything Singapore is the one showing how to deal with the virus - evolving from the old thinking and give up on stupid "zero covid" policy once things like vax and treatments are more available. You are on your own if you insist on not getting a jab and give yourselves some protection.

As for CX - it'll only further hurt HK's standing as a cargo/logistic hub. Goods are already bypassing HK for about a decade now as mainland is now shipping stuff out directly instead of going through the middleman (i.e. HK). Just look at how far down the ranking (in terms of tons of goods shipped) the HK container port compare to how quickly port of Shenzhen or Ningbo/Shanghai is going up...

The old legendary Cathay has been dying for years, one only needs to read "Fragrant Harbour" threads to see the hatred some crew have for the management. They were once a Western/Australian dominted colonial flying club, but just like South African, the winds of change blow cold. With Cathay Dragon already closed and CX grounded in the main, I imagine the post COVID CATHAY will be a very different beast.

DeltaWings wrote:

Hong Kong is showing the world how to deal with this virus. This is the only solution. Hard, but true. We have to accept it.

Good on Hong Kong!

The only way to deal with it is to live with it! A zero covid case doesn’t work and Australia woke up to themselves now hitting 20,000 cases.
Defeats the encouragement and drive to get everyone vaccinated!
Wake-up to yourself Hong Kong!

EK413 wrote:

DeltaWings wrote:

Hong Kong is showing the world how to deal with this virus. This is the only solution. Hard, but true. We have to accept it.

Good on Hong Kong!

The only way to deal with it is to live with it! A zero covid case doesn’t work and Australia woke up to themselves now hitting 20,000 cases.
Defeats the encouragement and drive to get everyone vaccinated!
Wake-up to yourself Hong Kong!

They won't, its all about the mainland and I know some mainland pilots who have been told by their companies it could be 3-4 years until they are ready to remove quarantine requirements.

EK413 wrote:

The only way to deal with it is to live with it! A zero covid case doesn’t work and Australia woke up to themselves now hitting 20,000 cases.
Defeats the encouragement and drive to get everyone vaccinated!
Wake-up to yourself Hong Kong!

I'll say one thing for certain - the prevalent thinking in HK is definitely one that of isolationism regardless of political spectrum. The only difference between (whatever remain of) the pan-Dem side and the pan-establishment (aka pro-CCP/China) side is that the pan-Dem side wants nothing of reopening to mainland - a stupid goal that the HKgov keep trying to do by imposing even more restrictions on top of already draconian restrictions.

As far as CX goes - in addition to what other already said, CX is basically relying on cargo to survive right now. The latest restrictions will only hurt CX more, as if they're not already bleeding enough money. My only question when it comes to HK aviation nowaday is the fact that HX is somehow still surviving...

Do we have a list of the cargo aircraft that are stranded at various airports with this news or have they all repositioned back to HKG?

Please let's try to keep the discussion primarily focused on aviation. While covid and the economic repercussions of health related restrictions are clearly relevant, this is still an aviation forum, so please focus the discussion around that as best as possible. Discussion more focused on covid and/or related restrictions, please refer to applicable threads in the Non Av forum.

✈️ atcsundevil

Wouldn't this pretty much kill the economics of the entire airline? If sustained, wouldn't it mean that a crew could basically only operate a single out and back from HKG every week?

This is going to severely disrupt the supply chain for many high value products and components. And there is no end in sight in terms of these disruptions. It's Omicron now. And it can be another variant 3 months down the road. The world really needs to get their act together to shift the supply chain away from unreliable suppliers and long range supply routes, especially for high impact components. It would for sure be more expensive to produce those components in US or Europe, but such supply chain disruptions are not cheap either. Once you factor the cost of such disruptions in, it may not be attractive any more financially to have such a long and complex supply chain. Making changes to the supply chain takes time and a lot of effort (just ask Boeing how complicated it can be) but it's never too late to start.

For CX, they apparently need to figure out how to deal with these stricter measures. The trouble for CX is that it's not 2020 any more. Back then, no airlines were hiring so their crews are stuck. They can put in whatever limitation and restriction they want. Now it's not the case any more. CX's crews are highly experienced and famous for their safety standard, service quality and language skills. Many pilots are not even locals so they don't need work permit to go back to UK or Canada or Australia or US to work. If CX cannot sort this out and resume flights, the staff is simply going to leave. They have been leaving already in the last few months but this may strengthen the will of many more, especially for those sitting on the fence so far.

Also, those cargo only pax flights are helping CX to maintain the usage of pax flight slots at many European and US airports. If they are only stopping for one week (as announced now), the impact is not significant, but if they have to reduce these cargo only pax flight significantly, they may start to lose slots at airports like AMS or FRA or LHR or LAX. Other airlines will gladly take over those slots.

FedEx made a great call definitely earlier to close the HKG crew base.

Below is the actual press release from CX: https://www.cathaypacificcargo.com/Abou ... fault.aspx

bwvilla wrote:

johns624 wrote:

China is the world's biggest economy. Not saying that I agree with what's happening in HongKong, but I also think that as the HongKong flagship carrier, although CX may change hugely in the coming years, it seems unlikely that they'll be forced into any slow, lingering death.

.

I might be missing something, but I believe the Unites States is still the worlds largest economy.

No question, CX is in big trouble. An utter shame what has happened to the once great carrier.

raylee67 wrote:

For CX, they apparently need to figure out how to deal with these stricter measures. The trouble for CX is that it's not 2020 any more. Back then, no airlines were hiring so their crews are stuck. They can put in whatever limitation and restriction they want. Now it's not the case any more. CX's crews are highly experienced and famous for their safety standard, service quality and language skills. Many pilots are not even locals so they don't need work permit to go back to UK or Canada or Australia or US to work. If CX cannot sort this out and resume flights, the staff is simply going to leave. They have been leaving already in the last few months but this may strengthen the will of many more, especially for those sitting on the fence so far.

According to the CX bigwigs, they're not too concerned about the current resignation rate as they have huge recruitment plans for 2022. However optimistic / unrealistic / delusional (call it what you want) that may be, you are indeed correct - pilots are simply going to leave and have already started doing so at an unprecedented rate.

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/4/183908/Cathay-plans-to-hire-hundreds-of-pilots-as-morale-falls



To those unfamiliar with HK's current practices, please allow me to share with you the labyrinth of rules local aircrew are subjected to at work and when returning to paradise island.


LAYOVERS

1. Proceed directly to/from the aircraft on arrival/departure. Detours through duty free/retail outlets en-route are not permitted.

2. Travel as a group in the transport provided by the Company directly to and from the hotel. Crew shall wear a surgical face mask during the entire journey from the aircraft until inside their hotel room, and then from their hotel room until on the aircraft at the end of the layover.

3. During the layover period, avoid contact with the public and other crew members.

4. Self-isolate in their allocated hotel room for the duration of the layover, except
- In an emergency, OR
- To seek medical attention (if arranged by MedAire)

5. Eat in their allocated hotel room using room service or delivery service to your room.
- If room service or delivery service to your room is not available, crew may collect deliveries from the hotel lobby. Ensure that a surgical mask is worn and maintain physical distancing during interactions with delivery persons. Return to their hotel room as soon as possible and immediately wash or sanitise their hands properly after handling food packages and before eating.

6. Not use the common facilities in the hotel e.g. the hotel gym, pool.

7. Monitor their symptoms and measure temperature twice daily. If still under Hong Kong Port Health Medical Surveillance, submit the Medical Surveillance Daily Report form each day.

*The list continues, including instructions on how sneeze and cough properly, but you get the picture.



RETURNING TO HONG KONG

1. All local based crew (except those who have only operated flights to/from the Mainland or Macao in the past 14 days) must conduct a self-administered Rapid Antigen Test (RAT) or possess a negative result of SARS-CoV-2 Nucleic Acid (PCR) test with specimen collected within 24 hours prior to the scheduled departure time of the flight to Hong Kong.

2. On arrival at the Temporary Specimen Collection Centre (Testing site located within Hong Kong Airport), Port Health will issue crew with a Notification of Medical Surveillance form, require crew to submit a specimen for COVID-19 testing and wait at the TSCC for the results - typically a 2-3 hour wait here:

3. After returning a negative test result, crew will begin a period of self-isolation and medical surveillance depending on their classification as follows (refer to flow chart to determine classification):
a. Test & Medical Surveillance
b. Test & Isolate
c. Test & Quarantine



4. Medical Surveillance & Isolation / Quarantine: The medical surveillance period for crew members having stayed in, or operated to, respective specified places under Cap. 599H or China (Mainland, Taiwan, Macau) during the 21 days prior to arrival at Hong Kong are as follows:
- Group A1 specified places: 21 days
- Group B1 specified places, and Taiwan: 21 days
- Group C1 specified places: Fully vaccinated crew 14 days
- China Mainland and Macau: 14 days

Notes:
* The most up-to-date Cap. 599H list of Group A (high risk), Group B (medium risk), and Group C (low risk) places, and the “List of Specified Places For Enhanced Quarantine & Surveillance Measures on Omicron Variant” can be found at the following Hong Kong Government link: https://www.coronavirus.gov.hk/eng/inbound-travel.html.
For fully vaccinated local-based crew, only Angola, Botswana, Eswatini, Ethiopia, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe are considered as Group A “Specified Places for Enhanced Quarantine & Surveillance Measures on Omicron Variant” under crew exemption conditions.
For fully vaccinated local-based crew, only Brazil, India, Indonesia, Ireland, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Russia, and the United Kingdom are considered as Group A specified places under crew exemption conditions.

* For fully-vaccinated local-based crew arriving from Australia, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Cambodia, Canada, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, Maldives, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, Sri Lanka, Switzerland, Thailand, United Arab Emirates or United States of America, in addition to the post arrival testing set out below, these local-based crew entering the local community must also be subject to a polymerase chain reaction-based (PCR) nucleic acid test for COVID-19 on the 6th day following their arrival in Hong Kong, and the sample of the test must be taken through combined nasal and throat swabs (CNTS) which must not be taken by the person tested. This list includes only those places on the network; it is not exhaustive. The full list of offline places that require a Day 6 post arrival PCR test is accounted for when completing the Airline Declaration Form (One of three forms required prior to each return flight).

* “Stayed” is defined as having left the aircraft – crew who have served on a turnaround flight and have NOT left the aircraft during any stopover at any port(s) outside Hong Kong throughout a duty flight will not be deemed to have stayed in the port(s) concerned. However, crew who have (i) temporarily left the aircraft for necessary technical and operational tasks (e.g. walk-around inspection)
and (ii) remained airside with no direct physical contact with local ground staff are not deemed to have stayed at the port(s) concerned. Nevertheless, crew defined in this note will NOT be subject to the self-isolation requirement upon arrival in Hong Kong before entering the local community, ONLY on the condition that the turnaround flights the crew have served carried no outbound or inbound passengers (i.e. turnaround all-cargo flights).


5. Rules whilst under Medical Surveillance

- Throughout the first 14 days of the medical surveillance period (see point 4), all local-based crew who are entering the local community shall avoid mask-off activities in public places saved for eating/drinking and outdoor exercise, and shall refrain from going to crowded places. Throughout the 14 days, crew shall keep a log of their activities for record purposes.

- Wear a surgical mask at all times when in the community. Masks with an exhalation valve or vent which allow exhaling air to escape are not permitted.

- Monitor their health condition. Check and record body temperature twice daily. Carry a thermometer with them during all flight duties.

- Submit the Medical Surveillance Daily Report form each day of medical surveillance, to include a record of body temperature and any day a specimen was submitted for COVID-19 testing.

- Submit to the mandatory post-arrival testing requirements set out below:
*All samples of the polymerase chain reaction-based (PCR) nucleic acid tests must be taken through combined nasal and throat swabs, and the samples cannot be taken by the person being tested.
*All air crew who are NOT entering the local community and have stayed in Group A1 places specified in the “List of Specified Places For Enhanced Quarantine & Surveillance Measures on Omicron Variant” during the 21 days prior to arrival in Hong Kong are subject to PCR tests every day during their self-isolation at the airport hotel until departure from Hong Kong on their next duty flight.
*All air crew who are entering the local community upon arrival in Hong Kong are subject to the respective regular post-arrival testing requirements as set out below following their arrival in Hong
Kong (or until departure from Hong Kong on their next duty flight, whichever is earlier).


6. Post-Arrival COVID-19 Testing Requirements

- For crew who have stayed in, or operated to/from, high risk places specified in Group A1 under Cap. 599H during the 21 days prior to arrival in Hong Kong:
a. All crew who are subject to self-isolation at the Government’s designated quarantine facility (Penny’s Bay Quarantine Centre), PCR test(s) are required every day. Their health condition will be monitored by healthcare professional.
b. All crew who are subject to self-isolation at a designated quarantine hotel, PCR test(s) are required in accordance with the prevailing SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid test requirements applicable to persons staying at the designated quarantine hotel. After leaving the hotel, PCR tests are required on the 5th (where applicable), 12th (where applicable), 16th (where applicable), 19th (where applicable) and 26th day following their arrival in Hong Kong.
c. For crew not subject to self-isolation at a designated quarantine hotel, they are required to undergo (i) post-arrival PCR tests on the 3rd, 5th, 9th, 12th, 16th and 19th and 26th day following their arrival in Hong Kong; AND (ii) self-administered rapid antigen tests RAT) daily (even for the days on which PCR tests are conducted) until the 7th day following their arrival in Hong Kong.

- For crew who have stayed in, or operated to/from, medium risk places specified in Group B1, or Taiwan under Cap. 599H during the 14 days prior to arrival in Hong Kong (and have not stayed in any Group A1 specified place during the 21 days prior to arrival in Hong Kong):
a. All crew who are subject to self-isolation at a designated quarantine hotel, PCR test(s) are required in accordance with the prevailing SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid test requirements applicable to persons staying at the designated quarantine hotel. After leaving the hotel, (i) PCR tests are required on the 5th (where applicable), 9th (where applicable), 12th (where applicable), 16th and 19th day following their arrival in Hong Kong; AND (ii) self-administered rapid antigen tests RAT) daily (even for the days on which PCR tests are conducted) until the 7th day following their arrival in Hong Kong.
b. For crew not subject to self-isolation at a designated quarantine hotel, they are required to undergo (i) post-arrival PCR tests on the 3rd, 5th, 9th, 12th, 16th and 19th day following their arrival in Hong Kong (and on the 6th day, if applicable – refer Note 2, page 1); AND (ii) self-administered rapid antigen tests RAT) daily (even for the days on which PCR tests are conducted) until the 7th day following their arrival in Hong Kong.

- For crew who have stayed in, or operated to/from, low risk places specified in Group C1 under Cap. 599H during the 14 days prior to arrival in Hong Kong (and have not stayed in any Group A1 specified place during the 21 days prior to arrival in Hong Kong; or Group B1 specified places, or Taiwan during the 14 days prior to arrival in Hong Kong):
a. All crew who are subject to self-isolation at a designated quarantine hotel, PCR test(s) are required in accordance with the prevailing SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid test requirements applicable to persons staying at the designated quarantine hotel. After leaving the hotel, (i) PCR tests are required on the 5th (where applicable), 9th, 12th, 16th and 19th day following their arrival in Hong Kong; AND (ii) self-administered rapid antigen tests RAT) daily (even for the days on which PCR tests are conducted) until the 7th day following their arrival in Hong Kong.
b. For those not subject to self-isolation at a designated quarantine hotel, they are required to undergo (i) post-arrival PCR tests on the 3rd, 5th, 9th, 12th, 16th and 19th day following their arrival in Hong Kong; AND (ii) self-administered rapid antigen tests RAT) daily (even for the days on which PCR tests are conducted) until the 7th day following their arrival in Hong Kong.

- For crew who have stayed in, or operated to/from, China Mainland or Macau during the 14 days prior to arrival in Hong Kong (and have not stayed in any Group A1 specified place during the 21 days prior to arrival in Hong Kong; or Group B1, Group C1 specified places or Taiwan during the 14 days prior to arrival in Hong Kong), they are required to undergo (i) post-arrival PCR tests on the 3rd, 5th, 9th, 12th, 16th and 19th day following their arrival in Hong Kong; AND (ii) self-administered rapid antigen tests RAT) daily (even for the days on which PCR tests are conducted) until the 7th day following their arrival in Hong Kong (except crew who have (i) only operated flights to/from China Mainland or Macau in the past 14 days; AND (ii) have no travel history to places outside Hong Kong, China Mainland and Macau during the 14 days prior to their flight duties).


The above constraints should highlight the length at which Hong Kong is going to in sticking to it's COVID-0 strategy, and why Cathay has had to suspend cargo ops for a week.

With regards to the pilots leaving, put yourself in the their shoes. This has been ongoing since May 2020 with no end in sight, and it should come as no surprise that crew are just burnt out and see no other option other than to throw in the towel. This is all combined with huge permeant pay cuts, mandatory vaccination, reductions in annual leave (which have left it almost impossible to leave Hong Kong), and an absurd 21-day lookback mechanism for being classified a close contact - which would suddenly land you and your family members in Penny's Bay Quarantine Camp. This reoccurring threat of enforced imprisonment has resulted in many families relocating to alternative properties within Hong Kong, and expats going as far as sending their family members back home whilst they search for alternative employment. Now add to the mix the local resentment fuelled by the myriad of misinformation from the South China Morning Post, has lead to a toxic living environment where aircrew and their families are vilified as plague-ridden pests resulting in social exclusion. For some, it's all gotten a bit too much to handle, and thus, they've left...


A few pertinent articles as well:

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/locked-hotels-hong-kongs-covid-19-rules-take-mental-toll-cathay-pilots-2021-11-26/

https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2021/12/02/hong-kong-quarantine-pushes-cathay-pilots-to-039breaking-point039

Although the restrictions are harsh, when you see how there is zero covid cases in the community and there is no lock down or fear of catching covid, the restrictions could be justified. However, outbound cabin crew and cargo crew may not have the need to quarantine as hong kong is quite safe.

DeltaWings wrote:

Hong Kong is showing the world how to deal with this virus. This is the only solution. Hard, but true. We have to accept it.

Good on Hong Kong!

If that 'solution' is complete and durable isolation from the rest of the World with zero strategy for ever reopening, harsh restrictive measures on citizens, destruction of local businesses, annihilation of HK's status as an international business and finance hub (its very raison-d'etre), then I suggest that you look for different solutions... the rest of the World has.

volauvent wrote:

DeltaWings wrote:

Hong Kong is showing the world how to deal with this virus. This is the only solution. Hard, but true. We have to accept it.

Good on Hong Kong!

If that 'solution' is complete and durable isolation from the rest of the World with zero strategy for ever reopening, harsh restrictive measures on citizens, destruction of local businesses, annihilation of HK's status as an international business and finance hub (its very raison-d'etre), then I suggest that you look for different solutions... the rest of the World has.

Many EU countries decided to lock down during Christmas due to Omicron and other countries e.g NZ also impose strict quarantine restrictions. I agree it is harsh, but given how prevalent omicron is, I can't see another way. Many of my friends abroad stayed at home bc of isolation or fear of omicron during Christmas and people in HK can enjoy their Christmas without any fear or need for isolation. Business is at usual and things are normal, unless you are dealing with export and import or you are doing business travel. I would say the HK's approach do not deserve as much condemnation as in the forum.

Captaincurious wrote:

volauvent wrote:

DeltaWings wrote:

Hong Kong is showing the world how to deal with this virus. This is the only solution. Hard, but true. We have to accept it.

Good on Hong Kong!

If that 'solution' is complete and durable isolation from the rest of the World with zero strategy for ever reopening, harsh restrictive measures on citizens, destruction of local businesses, annihilation of HK's status as an international business and finance hub (its very raison-d'etre), then I suggest that you look for different solutions... the rest of the World has.

Many EU countries decided to lock down during Christmas due to Omicron and other countries e.g NZ also impose strict quarantine restrictions. I agree it is harsh, but given how prevalent omicron is, I can't see another way. Many of my friends abroad stayed at home bc of isolation or fear of omicron during Christmas and people in HK can enjoy their Christmas without any fear or need for isolation. Business is at usual and things are normal, unless you are dealing with export and import or you are doing business travel. I would say the HK's approach do not deserve as much condemnation as in the forum.

Lockdowns in Europe and the US aim to slow the spread so that the healthcare system can cope. HK's situation is very different as they are still aiming for a zero-covid goal.
Whereas one could argue that it may have been wise during the first waves, before vaccination was available and to an extent while Delta was still the prominent strain, it is hard to see what the end game is... Covid will not go away, therefore a zero-tolerance policy necessarily has no end.

Business is at usual and things are normal, unless you are dealing with export and import or you are doing business travel.

You seem to greatly underestimate the importance to Hong Kong of 'import/export' and businesses which depend on the openness of HK. It very much became the city it is today because of its status as a hub between the World and China. This status is very dependent on the flow of people (which is now almost entirely dead) and the flow of goods (which these latest restrictions on crew dealt a further blow to).
Things are 'normal' only in the sense that shops and restaurants are open and people can get around with few restrictions. In the background, many large companies are eyeing moving out of HK as its long-praised ease of doing business now seems all but history.
Once you have removed this status from HK, there isn't much left...
An overpriced real-estate market which has brought it much wealth, but which now seems to be in peril as the mainland real-estate sector takes a tumble?
A shopping destination for mainlanders which will depend on a travel bubble that will inevitably burst come the first local case? (which is happening now, btw)
A financial exchange place which gives access to a now lackluster market that seems doomed to suffer from endless political manipulation?

HK in isolation to the Word is nothing. It just becomes a fancy suburb of Shenzhen...

I'd rather undergo a lockdown in Europe that I know will end in a few weeks than living in the semblance of normality in a city-prison from where there is no escape in sight.

And if you think that by isolating now, HK is saving itself from the hardship other nations go through, then I have more bad news:
The zero-covid either goes on forever, meaning that this 'normalness' in which people are stuck in a small city and constantly run the risk of seeing themselves an their families being thrown in a prison camp for being at the wrong place at the wrong time also goes on forever.
And if the goal is to reopen eventually, then the virus will still be unleashed on a population that, unlike the rest of the World, has built no immunity whatsoever to it, apart from the vaccines that too few people will have taken too long ago. Not to mention that local immunity against other regularly circulating viruses like the flu will also have been diminished.

If you want an example of what to do for a small city-nation, look no further than Singapore, which successfully avoided the brunt of the first waves, then lead a rapid and successful vaccination campaign and is now slowly reopening to reap the benefits of its policy as it will welcome many of the businesses that are fleeing HK.

To get back to the topic, I can't see CX surviving this, unfortunately. I also can't help but thinking that this is by design...

Captaincurious wrote:

Many of my friends abroad stayed at home bc of isolation or fear of omicron during Christmas and people in HK can enjoy their Christmas without any fear or need for isolation. Business is at usual and things are normal

Really ? According to Dr David Hui Shu-cheong (apparently a "leading government pandemic advisor"): "Hui urged residents to get tested if they had been to any of the 60 places known to have been visited by the aircrew, and said people should avoid gathering in groups to celebrate New Year’s Eve due to the risk of Omicron’s spread."

Captaincurious wrote:

volauvent wrote:

DeltaWings wrote:

Hong Kong is showing the world how to deal with this virus. This is the only solution. Hard, but true. We have to accept it.

Good on Hong Kong!

If that 'solution' is complete and durable isolation from the rest of the World with zero strategy for ever reopening, harsh restrictive measures on citizens, destruction of local businesses, annihilation of HK's status as an international business and finance hub (its very raison-d'etre), then I suggest that you look for different solutions... the rest of the World has.

Many EU countries decided to lock down during Christmas due to Omicron and other countries e.g NZ also impose strict quarantine restrictions. I agree it is harsh, but given how prevalent omicron is, I can't see another way. Many of my friends abroad stayed at home bc of isolation or fear of omicron during Christmas and people in HK can enjoy their Christmas without any fear or need for isolation. Business is at usual and things are normal, unless you are dealing with export and import or you are doing business travel. I would say the HK's approach do not deserve as much condemnation as in the forum.

That doesn’t mean you shut down vital cargo shipments

SInGAPORE_AIR wrote:

Really ? According to Dr David Hui Shu-cheong (apparently a "leading government pandemic advisor"): "Hui urged residents to get tested if they had been to any of the 60 places known to have been visited by the aircrew, and said people should avoid gathering in groups to celebrate New Year’s Eve due to the risk of Omicron’s spread."

Would this be the same government adviser that thinks every crew me ever needs to get PCR tested after every flight, even if they only did a cargo flight with no passengers leaving and retuning to HKG without leaving the aircraft. Have the crew sit with passengers from around the world, share bathrooms with passengers for around the world normally for the best part of 4 hours after every flight waiting for test results. From the airport they have get private transport so as not to interact with the community.

Meanwhile workers at the same testing exposed to the same passengers centre don’t get tested, and they catch public transport home, and have no restrictions on their movements.

See https://www.scmp.com/coronavirus/articl ... icron-test

raylee67 wrote:

This is going to severely disrupt the supply chain for many high value products and components. And there is no end in sight in terms of these disruptions. It's Omicron now. And it can be another variant 3 months down the road. The world really needs to get their act together to shift the supply chain away from unreliable suppliers and long range supply routes, especially for high impact components. It would for sure be more expensive to produce those components in US or Europe, but such supply chain disruptions are not cheap either. Once you factor the cost of such disruptions in, it may not be attractive any more financially to have such a long and complex supply chain. Making changes to the supply chain takes time and a lot of effort (just ask Boeing how complicated it can be) but it's never too late to start.

For CX, they apparently need to figure out how to deal with these stricter measures. The trouble for CX is that it's not 2020 any more. Back then, no airlines were hiring so their crews are stuck. They can put in whatever limitation and restriction they want. Now it's not the case any more. CX's crews are highly experienced and famous for their safety standard, service quality and language skills. Many pilots are not even locals so they don't need work permit to go back to UK or Canada or Australia or US to work. If CX cannot sort this out and resume flights, the staff is simply going to leave. They have been leaving already in the last few months but this may strengthen the will of many more, especially for those sitting on the fence so far.

Also, those cargo only pax flights are helping CX to maintain the usage of pax flight slots at many European and US airports. If they are only stopping for one week (as announced now), the impact is not significant, but if they have to reduce these cargo only pax flight significantly, they may start to lose slots at airports like AMS or FRA or LHR or LAX. Other airlines will gladly take over those slots.

FedEx made a great call definitely earlier to close the HKG crew base.

Below is the actual press release from CX: https://www.cathaypacificcargo.com/Abou ... fault.aspx

The only way out is to operate these flights from overseas bases (probably LHR, DXB, SYD, ANC) and do turnarounds. The Hong Kong restrictions are too expensive to comply with for the company and the mental toll on the crew is just insurmountable. The only workable way is to base crews overseas where they can live in freedom like every other foreign airline operating into Hong Kong. This should enable a more reliable schedule and lower attrition. Basing any aircrew in Hong Kong is now the best way to become a millionaire (as a billionaire).

Captaincurious wrote:

volauvent wrote:

DeltaWings wrote:

Hong Kong is showing the world how to deal with this virus. This is the only solution. Hard, but true. We have to accept it.

Good on Hong Kong!

If that 'solution' is complete and durable isolation from the rest of the World with zero strategy for ever reopening, harsh restrictive measures on citizens, destruction of local businesses, annihilation of HK's status as an international business and finance hub (its very raison-d'etre), then I suggest that you look for different solutions... the rest of the World has.

Many EU countries decided to lock down during Christmas due to Omicron and other countries e.g NZ also impose strict quarantine restrictions. I agree it is harsh, but given how prevalent omicron is, I can't see another way. Many of my friends abroad stayed at home bc of isolation or fear of omicron during Christmas and people in HK can enjoy their Christmas without any fear or need for isolation. Business is at usual and things are normal, unless you are dealing with export and import or you are doing business travel. I would say the HK's approach do not deserve as much condemnation as in the forum.

Well, with current supply chains and import / export of goods and personell I don't see the HK approach as being successful. Just the unfavorable returns pf HK's strategy have not all come in yet. Zero Covid is a Pyrrhic victory. Many other parts of the world are gradually opening up, accepting high case numbers as long as healthcare systems can cope to keep things going. But I take it that HK's strategy of Zero Covid is not unpopular within HK itself, making it hard to adjust to the rest of the world, which has chosen a different strategy. What way out of this discrepancy between HK (as well as China) and the rest of the world do you see? I don't see any and which is why I see HK and China cut off from much of the rest of the world for the foreseeable future (till about 2024) making things for the aviation industry nearly impossible.

What do you then propose for people working in the aviation industry in HK? Are you willing to sacrifice much of CX to uphold the Zero Covid strategy for the years to come? Not to speak of the other parts of HKs economy? I don't live in HK, only visited a couple of times, but I can see why some other parts of the world have a hard time to understand HKs Covid strategy, especially in an aviation forum which is all about global connectivity.

DeltaWings wrote:

Hong Kong is showing the world how to deal with this virus. This is the only solution. Hard, but true. We have to accept it.

Good on Hong Kong!

Not at all. The virus originated in China, and they've acted in their own interest to protect themselves and deflect. Nothing more.

johns624 wrote:

Am I the only one who thinks that with the mainland tightening the screws on HK, that the days of CX's heyday are in the past and it'll die a slow, lingering death?

Same feeling here. China is slowly killing CX, and HK at the same time... This is sad.

airproxx wrote:

johns624 wrote:

Am I the only one who thinks that with the mainland tightening the screws on HK, that the days of CX's heyday are in the past and it'll die a slow, lingering death?

Same feeling here. China is slowly killing CX, and HK at the same time... This is sad.

In my view, CX will go one of three ways:
1. Fight against their government restrictions until the bitter end. This seems suicidal and unlikely (it's the slow lingering death scenario).
2. Move their base to outside of HK/CN. Seems infeasible.
3. Adjust to the government changes and ride on the wave as the China economy inevitably charges ahead. Seems the most likely.

In the short-term, I expect CX to weather the restrictions and operational impact and then in the medium term come out the other side ready to be a significant part of the China and Hong Kong air industry.

raylee67 wrote:

FedEx made a great call definitely earlier to close the HKG crew base.

yonahleung wrote:

The only way out is to operate these flights from overseas bases (probably LHR, DXB, SYD, ANC) and do turnarounds. The Hong Kong restrictions are too expensive to comply with for the company and the mental toll on the crew is just insurmountable. The only workable way is to base crews overseas where they can live in freedom like every other foreign airline operating into Hong Kong. This should enable a more reliable schedule and lower attrition. Basing any aircrew in Hong Kong is now the best way to become a millionaire (as a billionaire).

Unfortunately HKG had its challenges before COVID, and now with COVID it seems its policies make it difficult for an international airline to want to have a base there, yet I doubt they would find a mainland base preferable. So who will be the "winner" in this picture? Seems some airlines were using ICN as a place to swap crews. Will ICN get a long term boost, or is that just a short term thing?

Revelation wrote:

raylee67 wrote:

FedEx made a great call definitely earlier to close the HKG crew base.

yonahleung wrote:

The only way out is to operate these flights from overseas bases (probably LHR, DXB, SYD, ANC) and do turnarounds. The Hong Kong restrictions are too expensive to comply with for the company and the mental toll on the crew is just insurmountable. The only workable way is to base crews overseas where they can live in freedom like every other foreign airline operating into Hong Kong. This should enable a more reliable schedule and lower attrition. Basing any aircrew in Hong Kong is now the best way to become a millionaire (as a billionaire).

Unfortunately HKG had its challenges before COVID, and now with COVID it seems its policies make it difficult for an international airline to want to have a base there, yet I doubt they would find a mainland base preferable. So who will be the "winner" in this picture? Seems some airlines were using ICN as a place to swap crews. Will ICN get a long term boost, or is that just a short term thing?

FedEx moved their HKG based pilots back to OAK. That's a permanent move.

For other overseas airlines which don't have HKG based crews anyway, they are using either BKK or ICN as a technical stop for crew change mostly.

yonahleung wrote:

raylee67 wrote:

This is going to severely disrupt the supply chain for many high value products and components. And there is no end in sight in terms of these disruptions. It's Omicron now. And it can be another variant 3 months down the road. The world really needs to get their act together to shift the supply chain away from unreliable suppliers and long range supply routes, especially for high impact components. It would for sure be more expensive to produce those components in US or Europe, but such supply chain disruptions are not cheap either. Once you factor the cost of such disruptions in, it may not be attractive any more financially to have such a long and complex supply chain. Making changes to the supply chain takes time and a lot of effort (just ask Boeing how complicated it can be) but it's never too late to start.

For CX, they apparently need to figure out how to deal with these stricter measures. The trouble for CX is that it's not 2020 any more. Back then, no airlines were hiring so their crews are stuck. They can put in whatever limitation and restriction they want. Now it's not the case any more. CX's crews are highly experienced and famous for their safety standard, service quality and language skills. Many pilots are not even locals so they don't need work permit to go back to UK or Canada or Australia or US to work. If CX cannot sort this out and resume flights, the staff is simply going to leave. They have been leaving already in the last few months but this may strengthen the will of many more, especially for those sitting on the fence so far.

Also, those cargo only pax flights are helping CX to maintain the usage of pax flight slots at many European and US airports. If they are only stopping for one week (as announced now), the impact is not significant, but if they have to reduce these cargo only pax flight significantly, they may start to lose slots at airports like AMS or FRA or LHR or LAX. Other airlines will gladly take over those slots.

FedEx made a great call definitely earlier to close the HKG crew base.

Below is the actual press release from CX: https://www.cathaypacificcargo.com/Abou ... fault.aspx

The only way out is to operate these flights from overseas bases (probably LHR, DXB, SYD, ANC) and do turnarounds. The Hong Kong restrictions are too expensive to comply with for the company and the mental toll on the crew is just insurmountable. The only workable way is to base crews overseas where they can live in freedom like every other foreign airline operating into Hong Kong. This should enable a more reliable schedule and lower attrition. Basing any aircrew in Hong Kong is now the best way to become a millionaire (as a billionaire).

It's ironic that CX closed most of their overseas pilot and FA crew bases in the last 12 months already. I think the only overseas pilot base left is LHR. There are no more overseas based FA crews.

Seems like a good thread to report this:

Hong Kong flagship carrier Cathay Pacific Airways said on Saturday two of its aircrew whom have tested positive for the Omicron variant were sacked for breaching medical surveillance regulations.

Cathay said five of its aircrew had tested positive following their return to Hong Kong from duty, and investigation into the cases had indicated a serious breach of protocols by some of those individuals.

"Failure to comply with medical surveillance regulations will lead to disciplinary procedures. Two of the individuals are no longer employed by Cathay Pacific," the carrier said in a statement. It gave no further details. The regulations include spending a period quarantining at home after flying.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 2022-01-01

From the outside looking in, things seem tense at CX these days.

Revelation wrote:

Seems like a good thread to report this:

Hong Kong flagship carrier Cathay Pacific Airways said on Saturday two of its aircrew whom have tested positive for the Omicron variant were sacked for breaching medical surveillance regulations.

Cathay said five of its aircrew had tested positive following their return to Hong Kong from duty, and investigation into the cases had indicated a serious breach of protocols by some of those individuals.

"Failure to comply with medical surveillance regulations will lead to disciplinary procedures. Two of the individuals are no longer employed by Cathay Pacific," the carrier said in a statement. It gave no further details. The regulations include spending a period quarantining at home after flying.

Ref: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 2022-01-01

From the outside looking in, things seem tense at CX these days.

you break government rules and put your co workers, ther families and others potentially at risk you face the circumstances. BR fired a pilot for similar and that pilot infected other crew.

trex8 wrote:

you break government rules and put your co workers, ther families and others potentially at risk you face the circumstances. BR fired a pilot for similar and that pilot infected other crew.

This is a blame game, and CX pilots are being used as punching bags. One of the stories yesterday in the media got retracted once it was brought to light the crew member that tested positive on arrival was cabin crew.

All crew are held at the airport after every flight with passengers from all over the world. Passengers are being detected as being positive. Why mix the crew with passengers if they know there is positive cases ? Where is the logic ?

https://chp-dashboard.geodata.gov.hk/covid-19/en.html

If we test positive at the airport after landing we are taken directly to quarantine, the government go into our home and take our families against their will and lock them up in quarantine. We never even see them and they are locked up. Apparently you can get covid via a phone call or a WhatsApp message. Where is the logic ?

We are being locked up at the airport even if we do a return trip to China, the passengers get off the aircraft after landing leave the airport without being tested but the crew are thrown in with passengers from around the world for four hours to get tested. Where is the logic ?

The people working in the testing centres at the airport have no isolation requirements, they catch public transport home, they are not required to test before going home. They are free to move about the community. There have been media reports of these workers testing positive after being in the community. Where is the logic ?

Government employees are not required to be vaccinated, hospital workers are not required to be vaccinated. Where is the logic ?

The population has a very low vaccination rate, one of the reasons why is one of the vaccines used antibody response reduces very quickly over time. Those people have been fast tracked for a more well known vaccine.

All CX pilots are double or triple vaccinated, we get tested EVERY day after a duty.

The government controls where testing centres are, they have refused to put them in areas where more pilots live, so pilots are required to travel to get tested. Where is the logic ?

Sorry, the situation in HKG is like mainland China, not Taiwan.

Hi Zeke, sad story, I can imagine what you are going thru. There is no logic in anything happening presently in HKG and the mainland for that matter. I hope your post will not have any consequences for you, I always appreciated your professional insight and contributions to this forum. I hope you stay well or have left to a safe place already

Zelle, you should find the first and fastest exit as possible. Sorry that Cathay folks are going through that.

IADCA wrote:

Wouldn't this pretty much kill the economics of the entire airline? If sustained, wouldn't it mean that a crew could basically only operate a single out and back from HKG every week?

Crew can operate again within the quarantine period. This is how "Closed Loop" crewing functions. Crew members are in a bubble where they only leave quarantine hotels at outports or homeports to operate. At the end of the loop, they spend the entire quarantine period at home port and can then rejoin the community.

The editorial of today's SCMP calls the "closed loop" crew operating patterns as "collateral damage".

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... ne-failure

I'm surprised as I thought the SCMP was more forgiving of CX / pro common sense than the zero-COVID nonsense.

Actually how many of you know why the rules are changed suddenly? Because some CX crews not following the stay home rules which lead to the spread of the O version of COVID to the community. We are originally preparing to re-open the boarder with China at the very final stage and now all the pervious efforts are gone.

At this stage I could said, for HK, re-opening boarder with China is much more important then re-connecting with the else of the world. We can only choice to reopen the boarder with either China or the else of the world.

Someone above quoted Singapore’s policy to reopen the boarder, I would like to remind that they finally can’t afford a large number of cases everyday and have now temporarily suspended the so call “ quarantine free” travelling scheme.

SInGAPORE_AIR wrote:

Captaincurious wrote:

Many of my friends abroad stayed at home bc of isolation or fear of omicron during Christmas and people in HK can enjoy their Christmas without any fear or need for isolation. Business is at usual and things are normal

Really ? According to Dr David Hui Shu-cheong (apparently a "leading government pandemic advisor"): "Hui urged residents to get tested if they had been to any of the 60 places known to have been visited by the aircrew, and said people should avoid gathering in groups to celebrate New Year’s Eve due to the risk of Omicron’s spread."

Originally we could have a very safe environment for us to celebrating the Xmas, which could be proofed by numbers of large activities organised in this Dec ( all cancelled in 2020) until some CX crews ignore the requirements to stay at home recently, thankfully most got fired by CX afterwords.

hongkongflyer wrote:

Actually how many of you know why the rules are changed suddenly? Because some CX crews not following the stay home rules which lead to the spread of the O version of COVID to the community. We are originally preparing to re-open the boarder with China at the very final stage and now all the pervious efforts are gone.

At this stage I could said, for HK, re-opening boarder with China is much more important then re-connecting with the else of the world. We can only choice to reopen the boarder with either China or the else of the world.

Someone above quoted Singapore’s policy to reopen the boarder, I would like to remind that they finally can’t afford a large number of cases everyday and have now temporarily suspended the so call “ quarantine free” travelling scheme.

exactly. Everything is gone just because someone couldn't not stay home for 3 days.

Sounds like Hong Kong has a pretty poor COVID policy when all it takes is a single person breaking the rules for it all to fall apart.

And of course it was going to happen. Only a matter of time.

A more sensible policy is to acknowledge human nature and to not go for a plan that has a 0% margin of error.

Hopefully Cathay Pacific won't end up getting punished (even more, one could argue) over this