A good wide-ranging piece on Executive Traveller this morning where they interview a UA exec about the carrier's alliance with VA and plans for Australia.https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... artnership
* all Boeing 787-9s will have new Polaris and premium economy ('Premium Plus') seats by mid-year, and I'm sure they will make sure that SYD-LAX and SYD-SFO have those upgraded 789s when the UA-VA partnership launches in April
* MEL-LAX and MEL-SFO will be the next AU routes to be restored, followed by SYD-IAH
* United also open to flying to BNE, well of course they would say that but I am sure there are discussions going on for BNE-LAX or BNE-SFO or maybe even a 'split schedule' to stop QF having a monopoly on both, and of course if UA adds BNE-LAX this is yet another sign that Virgin Australia 2.0 has walked away from long-haul travel.
I'd say SFO-MNL is more likely than SFO-BNE at this stage considering both are similar yield-wise (give or take), however the larger population ex-MNL (and the heavier VFR traffic than BNE) would push MNL ahead of BNE imo.
MNL (PR) also has a monopoly like BNE (QF). But they survive through one-stop competition via the hubs of their neighbours. This will be no different in BNE (NZ, FJ, HA and likely VA/UA from Queensland via AKL to SFO/LAX).
Some of the higher yielding contracts in BNE (Boeing, etc) were of course enticed through State Government partnerships which were smart enough for them to take the funding.
Saying that, without the State Government and Tourism 'partnership' through the appropriate funding, UA to BNE before October 2023 will be extremely unlikely
You've previously ignored my questions, but I will ask you a very simple one: why are you so pessimistic about demand from BNE?
Before Covid BNE-LAX was daily 747 plus 5 weekly 77W, with the daily 747 to be replaced by 11 weekly 787 (7x LAX, 4x SFO*). I admit to having no inside knowledge but do not believe that QF and VA would have had that much capacity in a market that was as weak as you suggest. While QF did receive some government support for 'basing' four 787s in Queensland, the previous 747/77W LAX schedule was not
subsidised and appears to have stood on its own two feet.
Assuming the other party in question that replied on my NY post without replying directly has since put me on their foe list, I'm a bit more comfortable now to reply.
VA's 77W BNE-LAX was daily at the same time as the daily QF 747 BNE-LAX service.
The snapshot from BNE before COVID from memory; it was 6x weekly VA (The 7th frequency was removed to restart 4x weekly MEL-LAX) and as you pointed out 11x weekly QF 787 from BNE to the US West Coast cities.
Unfortunately BITRE doesn't publish international airfare data, so we cannot gauge average fares using publicly available information, but anecdotally fares (pre-Covid) were fairly consistent with SYD/MEL. Published fares (for both QF and VA) are identical across all three ports, with any discrepancy coming from fare availability and yield management. Again anecdotally, BNE did sometimes have more availability in the O/Q/N/T/I fare classes (for QF) but I can't ever recall seeing (for example) BNE I9 while SYD only had J available. I simply do not believe you when you say that yields ex-BNE are comparable to MNL-SFO, a well-known dumpster fire route. MNL and BKK are raised in every United new route thread on this website, and every time more level headed posters point out that fares from USA to SE Asia are abysmally low, sub-$900 return in Economy and $3000 in Business on either PR or CN3 being available almost all year round. Australia-USA, even at its cheapest, never got that low, certainly not in Business.
Y/Economy fares from a anecdotal view were a lot cheaper ex-BNE than from the larger capitals of SYD or MEL during the daily 747 and 77W days of QF and VA, at times falling as low as $850 (IIRC).
Whilst QF took steps to address those yields through the 787s (putting the government assistance to base 4x 787s in BNE aside), this largely left the lower yields to VA/DL and the one-stop competitors from their neighbours.
Pre COVID, the BNE-LAX market supporting two competitors was marginal at best, whilst there have been reports VA were at least breaking even on LAX flights, if not profitable, the profitability would've likely applied largely to their SYD and MEL flights when taking the DL JBA into consideration.
Post-COVID, it's a entirely different situation, whilst unlikely that TransPacific will recover to their 2019 levels in 2022, UA has never taken BNE as a serious expansion city after their short lived run in the mid 90s. BNE was usually lumped with the likes of MNL and BKK amongst posters pre-VA partnership.. Will the partnership with VA change that? Maybe, but with the current political/covid situation now across Australia, the rumoured 'pent-up' demand not eventuating as seen with QF temporarily axing all SFO flights and scaling back LAX flights, and UA's quote in the Executive Traveller, a short term entry by UA into BNE before 2023 is unlikely unless if the Queensland Government gets involved.