Latest on Bain's rumoured refloat of Virgin Australia says it's targetting 2023 to bring the airline back onto the ASX.

Suggestions are that the Boston-based buyout fund will stage a partial exit from the business to get some money back through the door, likely retaining between 50 and 60 per cent of the business.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/busine ... b71491041f

Sounds like Bain is giving Virgin Australia as much breathing room as it can to get beyond Covid and get a stable position in the market. I still can't see Virgin re-entering the long-haul market and I think potential shareholders would be jittery about that too. Virgin's smart to remain domestic and short-haul to a handful of proven markets like NZ, Bali, Fiji.

qf2220 wrote:

jrfspa320 wrote:

Would QF even want the slot at the moment? Sure in the long term but there is not enough demand to be offering 3 x daily at the moment and nobody knows how long the recovery will take

I think QF would take it so VA cant.

There hasnt really been any clear indication that VA even want it now? I cant see them being in any rush to return to widebody aircraft.

jrfspa320 wrote:

qf2220 wrote:

jrfspa320 wrote:

Would QF even want the slot at the moment? Sure in the long term but there is not enough demand to be offering 3 x daily at the moment and nobody knows how long the recovery will take

I think QF would take it so VA cant.

There hasnt really been any clear indication that VA even want it now? I cant see them being in any rush to return to widebody aircraft.

I agree that VA are probably not interested in WB long-haul operations using their metal and are moving more towards the very successful WN model with a few obvious changes that they can make by virtue of being in a duopoly. The differences include things like lounges, J class, international bilateral alliances and, potentially though still unlikely, global alliance membership.

I assume, unless VA actually hand the rights back early, that the IASC cannot do anything with them until the current activation expiry date of October this year.

jrfspa320 wrote:

qf2220 wrote:

jrfspa320 wrote:

Would QF even want the slot at the moment? Sure in the long term but there is not enough demand to be offering 3 x daily at the moment and nobody knows how long the recovery will take

I think QF would take it so VA cant.

There hasnt really been any clear indication that VA even want it now? I cant see them being in any rush to return to widebody aircraft.

But I am sure that VA will hold out as long as they can so that QF don't get a free leg-up and have to work for it.

CraigAnderson wrote:

Latest on Bain's rumoured refloat of Virgin Australia says it's targetting 2023 to bring the airline back onto the ASX.

Suggestions are that the Boston-based buyout fund will stage a partial exit from the business to get some money back through the door, likely retaining between 50 and 60 per cent of the business.

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/busine ... b71491041f

Sounds like Bain is giving Virgin Australia as much breathing room as it can to get beyond Covid and get a stable position in the market. I still can't see Virgin re-entering the long-haul market and I think potential shareholders would be jittery about that too. Virgin's smart to remain domestic and short-haul to a handful of proven markets like NZ, Bali, Fiji.

No chance they would look at longhaul before the IPO. Bain aren't stupid

qf2220 wrote:

Can IASC offer the slot for a fixed period, say 2 or 3 years to QF and then a reassessment at the expiry of that time?

I don't see any reason why not. They could do it explicitly, or by attaching conditions. As it stands, they place a lot of conditions when slot or frequency scarcity is at play. Ultimately, those conditions are designed to reduce the concentration of power when slots or frequencies are scarce. A solution like you propose would satisfy both needs, that in the short term the capacity it utilized, but that capacity would be less concentrated in QF/JL if another suitable carrier/option came along over the medium term. Unfortunately, given the bilateral, that frequency could not be use by a non-Australian airline, for example, ANZ would not be able to utilize it as a 5th freedom sector.

jrfspa320 wrote:

Would QF even want the slot at the moment? Sure in the long term but there is not enough demand to be offering 3 x daily at the moment and nobody knows how long the recovery will take

They'd have quite some time to implement it. VA still have it until 30 October 2022. If no extension is given at that point, it would probably take IASC 3-6 months at least to allocate it to QF. They'd be give some time to implement it themselves, maybe 6-12 months, at which point they could get a postponement for another 6 months. At that point, unless a compelling alternative comes along, I don't see anyone objective to IASC allowing delays or to enforce it.

evanb wrote:

jrfspa320 wrote:

Would QF even want the slot at the moment? Sure in the long term but there is not enough demand to be offering 3 x daily at the moment and nobody knows how long the recovery will take

They'd have quite some time to implement it. VA still have it until 30 October 2022. If no extension is given at that point, it would probably take IASC 3-6 months at least to allocate it to QF. They'd be give some time to implement it themselves, maybe 6-12 months, at which point they could get a postponement for another 6 months. At that point, unless a compelling alternative comes along, I don't see anyone objective to IASC allowing delays or to enforce it.

Exactly, Qantas doesn't need that extra HND slot now, it might not need it until the end of 2023 or later, presuming that by then there's sufficient demand for daily SYD-HND, MEL-HND and BNE-HND, or even double-daily SYD-HND while MEL and BNE remain sharing the slot on a split schedule, but based on pre-pandemic demand that need will be there at some stage, and Qantas will also be in a better position to meet any 'use it or lose it' conditions because unless Virgin makes a dramatic move, Virgin has no way to use the slot at all.

Interesting analysis at SMH

Half-empty planes are bad news for Qantas, but worse for its rivals

Qantas can turn a profit while flying far emptier planes than its rivals thanks to its aggressive pandemic cost-cutting drive, which analysts say will help shield it from competitors Virgin Australia, Rex Airlines and new challenger Bonza.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/compani ... 59rqq.html

There's a breakdown of estimated break-even load factors for each domestic airline: Qantas is 55%, Jetstar is 43%, Virgin is 76% and Rex is 80%.

The journalist reports

Rex deputy chairman John Sharp said this estimate was “wrong by a wide margin” but would not provide the accurate figure.

CraigAnderson wrote:

Interesting analysis at SMH


There's a breakdown of estimated break-even load factors for each domestic airline: Qantas is 55%, Jetstar is 43%, Virgin is 76% and Rex is 80%.

The journalist reports

Rex deputy chairman John Sharp said this estimate was “wrong by a wide margin” but would not provide the accurate figure.

Given ZL's ticket prices between MEL and SYD, it mightn't be 80%, it could be higher...

anstar wrote:

aerokiwi wrote:

At most I'd say QF would have to go back and consult, then implement the requirement. A la BHP.

[/list]

I believe QF did consult... they even sent out a survey prior to their staff asking their views.

Amongst other things, the complainants allege that the survey waan't proper consultation.

Any chances of QF resuming SYD-SCL? Latin American yields are at a all time high with the US3 although Latin immigration to AUS is less than the USA. There's currently no flights crossing the South Pacific. I do know due to lack of competition QF/LATAM charge insane rates for SYD/MEL/AKL-SCL.

x1234 wrote:

Any chances of QF resuming SYD-SCL? Latin American yields are at a all time high with the US3 although Latin immigration to AUS is less than the USA. There's currently no flights crossing the South Pacific. I do know due to lack of competition QF/LATAM charge insane rates for SYD/MEL/AKL-SCL.

Probably unlikely until residents from Chile etc can enter Australia as tourists. Currently only tourists from Singapore, Japan, NZ and South Korea can enter and NZ doesn't really count as you can't go back.

x1234 wrote:

Any chances of QF resuming SYD-SCL? Latin American yields are at a all time high with the US3 although Latin immigration to AUS is less than the USA. There's currently no flights crossing the South Pacific. I do know due to lack of competition QF/LATAM charge insane rates for SYD/MEL/AKL-SCL.

Don’t forget NZ was operating AKL-EZE pre-covid. Not sure the route would return as part of NZ’s International network reshuffle once New Zealand borders re-open.


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EK413 wrote:

x1234 wrote:

Any chances of QF resuming SYD-SCL? Latin American yields are at a all time high with the US3 although Latin immigration to AUS is less than the USA. There's currently no flights crossing the South Pacific. I do know due to lack of competition QF/LATAM charge insane rates for SYD/MEL/AKL-SCL.

Don’t forget NZ was operating AKL-EZE pre-covid. Not sure the route would return as part of NZ’s International network reshuffle once New Zealand borders re-open.


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AKL-EZE has been permanently canned by NZ as a result of the somewhat hopeless economic situation in Argentina.

Will be interesting to see if QF opt out of PER & commit to DRW.

QANTAS HINTS AT KEEPING LONDON FLIGHTS IN DARWIN AFTER WA U-TURN

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce has said the airline may look to commit to extending its Darwin-London route, in light of Western Australia’s uncertain border reopening plans.
An announcement could come in the coming days, as the airline works on its “backup plan” for both domestic and international operations to WA, Joyce said.

Read more

https://australianaviation.com.au/2022/ ... wa-u-turn/


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EK413 wrote:

Will be interesting to see if QF opt out of PER & commit to DRW.

QANTAS HINTS AT KEEPING LONDON FLIGHTS IN DARWIN AFTER WA U-TURN

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce has said the airline may look to commit to extending its Darwin-London route, in light of Western Australia’s uncertain border reopening plans.
An announcement could come in the coming days, as the airline works on its “backup plan” for both domestic and international operations to WA, Joyce said.

Read more

https://australianaviation.com.au/2022/ ... wa-u-turn/


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Realistically they will be back as soon as WA opens. If they dont SQ, EK etc will be only too happy to take the traffic which far exceeds DRW demand.

The PM has announced that international tourists will be allowed back in 'well before Easter'.

Some welcome news.

https://www.theage.com.au/national/nati ... 59rwb.html

jrfspa320 wrote:

EK413 wrote:

Will be interesting to see if QF opt out of PER & commit to DRW.

QANTAS HINTS AT KEEPING LONDON FLIGHTS IN DARWIN AFTER WA U-TURN

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce has said the airline may look to commit to extending its Darwin-London route, in light of Western Australia’s uncertain border reopening plans.
An announcement could come in the coming days, as the airline works on its “backup plan” for both domestic and international operations to WA, Joyce said.

Read more

https://australianaviation.com.au/2022/ ... wa-u-turn/


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Realistically they will be back as soon as WA opens. If they dont SQ, EK etc will be only too happy to take the traffic which far exceeds DRW demand.

They'll be back to PER but it probably strengthens QF's resolve for Sunrise so they can bypass PER for critical east coast pax and only offer PER-LHR if it makes sense. Not sure if it will make sense but unlikely to be daily given PER pax will also be served via EK codeshares.

tullamarine wrote:

They'll be back to PER but it probably strengthens QF's resolve for Sunrise so they can bypass PER for critical east coast pax and only offer PER-LHR if it makes sense. Not sure if it will make sense but unlikely to be daily given PER pax will also be served via EK codeshares.

Wouldn't be suprised if DRW is extended for another 6 months or so to give some certainty for arrangements to be in place, then back to PER when McGowan decides to re-open to the East. And you're right, those Sunrise planes will probably be in the QF fleet quicker than expected.

melpax wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

They'll be back to PER but it probably strengthens QF's resolve for Sunrise so they can bypass PER for critical east coast pax and only offer PER-LHR if it makes sense. Not sure if it will make sense but unlikely to be daily given PER pax will also be served via EK codeshares.

Wouldn't be suprised if DRW is extended for another 6 months or so to give some certainty for arrangements to be in place, then back to PER when McGowan decides to re-open to the East. And you're right, those Sunrise planes will probably be in the QF fleet quicker than expected.

Pitch Black is scheduled to run this year, operating through DRW becomes a nightmare when thats on

jrfspa320 wrote:

melpax wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

They'll be back to PER but it probably strengthens QF's resolve for Sunrise so they can bypass PER for critical east coast pax and only offer PER-LHR if it makes sense. Not sure if it will make sense but unlikely to be daily given PER pax will also be served via EK codeshares.

Wouldn't be suprised if DRW is extended for another 6 months or so to give some certainty for arrangements to be in place, then back to PER when McGowan decides to re-open to the East. And you're right, those Sunrise planes will probably be in the QF fleet quicker than expected.

Pitch Black is scheduled to run this year, operating through DRW becomes a nightmare when thats on

At the rate WA are travelling they won’t be re-opening until the end of 2022 & even that’s questionable.

As for DRW is certainly proven to be a great alternative for QF LHR service.


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tullamarine wrote:

jrfspa320 wrote:

EK413 wrote:

Will be interesting to see if QF opt out of PER & commit to DRW.

QANTAS HINTS AT KEEPING LONDON FLIGHTS IN DARWIN AFTER WA U-TURN

Qantas CEO Alan Joyce has said the airline may look to commit to extending its Darwin-London route, in light of Western Australia’s uncertain border reopening plans.
An announcement could come in the coming days, as the airline works on its “backup plan” for both domestic and international operations to WA, Joyce said.

Read more

https://australianaviation.com.au/2022/ ... wa-u-turn/


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Realistically they will be back as soon as WA opens. If they dont SQ, EK etc will be only too happy to take the traffic which far exceeds DRW demand.

They'll be back to PER but it probably strengthens QF's resolve for Sunrise so they can bypass PER for critical east coast pax and only offer PER-LHR if it makes sense. Not sure if it will make sense but unlikely to be daily given PER pax will also be served via EK codeshares.

OK, for what it's worth, I think that there's a significant demand for UK flights from PER exclusively because nearly 10% of our population was born in the UK. Now, yeah, it may not be daily, but I think it'll be viable for the foreseeable future.

AdvancedBikkie wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

jrfspa320 wrote:

Realistically they will be back as soon as WA opens. If they dont SQ, EK etc will be only too happy to take the traffic which far exceeds DRW demand.

They'll be back to PER but it probably strengthens QF's resolve for Sunrise so they can bypass PER for critical east coast pax and only offer PER-LHR if it makes sense. Not sure if it will make sense but unlikely to be daily given PER pax will also be served via EK codeshares.

OK, for what it's worth, I think that there's a significant demand for UK flights from PER exclusively because nearly 10% of our population was born in the UK. Now, yeah, it may not be daily, but I think it'll be viable for the foreseeable future.

I doubt QF will keep flying from a city of 150k when a city of 2.2 million is back on line. Project Sunrise isn't going to happen anytime soon either.

Any idea whether QF is receiving financial incentives to use DRW on LHR flights? Possibly fee rebates, exemptions or discounts from NT government, or possibly even covering of crew hotel costs? I doubt it would be enough to keep the flights in DRW indefinitely, but it certainly might be a useful short term inducement in using DRW over SIN for the time being.

The additional fuel for MEL-DRW-LHR compared to MEL-SIN-LHR plus a little more engine wear and tear from a few more MTOW take-offs is probably making a difference that QF need to make up elsewhere.

AdvancedBikkie wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

jrfspa320 wrote:

Realistically they will be back as soon as WA opens. If they dont SQ, EK etc will be only too happy to take the traffic which far exceeds DRW demand.

They'll be back to PER but it probably strengthens QF's resolve for Sunrise so they can bypass PER for critical east coast pax and only offer PER-LHR if it makes sense. Not sure if it will make sense but unlikely to be daily given PER pax will also be served via EK codeshares.

OK, for what it's worth, I think that there's a significant demand for UK flights from PER exclusively because nearly 10% of our population was born in the UK. Now, yeah, it may not be daily, but I think it'll be viable for the foreseeable future.

A premium heavy 789 is not suitable for the route if you are concentrating on VFR market. Emirates codeshare can do this segment of the market much better.

evanb wrote:

The additional fuel for MEL-DRW-LHR compared to MEL-SIN-LHR plus a little more engine wear and tear from a few more MTOW take-offs is probably making a difference that QF need to make up elsewhere.

I believe Darwin is actually closer to London, by over 600km.

Today’s final working day in Singapore before lunar new year and tonight’s SQ231(380) to Sydney seems to have a heathy load.

tullamarine wrote:

AdvancedBikkie wrote:

tullamarine wrote:

They'll be back to PER but it probably strengthens QF's resolve for Sunrise so they can bypass PER for critical east coast pax and only offer PER-LHR if it makes sense. Not sure if it will make sense but unlikely to be daily given PER pax will also be served via EK codeshares.

OK, for what it's worth, I think that there's a significant demand for UK flights from PER exclusively because nearly 10% of our population was born in the UK. Now, yeah, it may not be daily, but I think it'll be viable for the foreseeable future.

A premium heavy 789 is not suitable for the route if you are concentrating on VFR market. Emirates codeshare can do this segment of the market much better.

I hope that some day soon, I will be free to travel again.

And I hope that the QF9 returns to Perth. I’ve used it and hands down it beats all the other options.

One day… sigh.

a320fan wrote:

evanb wrote:

The additional fuel for MEL-DRW-LHR compared to MEL-SIN-LHR plus a little more engine wear and tear from a few more MTOW take-offs is probably making a difference that QF need to make up elsewhere.

I believe Darwin is actually closer to London, by over 600km.

MEL-DRW-LHR 1,687 nm + 7,490 nm = 9,177 nm
MEL-SIN-LHR 3,253 nm + 5,878 nm = 9,132 nm

But that's not the point that I'm making. MEL-DRW-LHR burns a sizable amount more fuel than MEL-SIN-LHR, even though it's only 45nm longer because of the additional fuel used to carry the heavier fuel load on the long DRW-LHR leg. Fuel burn isn't linear through a flight and the DRW take-off to LHR would absolutely be at or near MTOW.

Yes, DRW is closer to LHR than PER, but I'm making the comparison between DRW and SIN are stopover points while PER is unavailable. They take that fuel hit on the PER flight because it earns them substantial revenue to make up for it that DRW certainly doesn't.

I do believe that QF will return to Perth, in addition to significant volume the likes of Rio Tinto will keep front end loads healthy once things normalise. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised if the resumption gets pushed out to October to provide some certainty through northern summer

The other potential issue could be flight path via DRW if things escalate in Ukraine. At the moment via DRW overflies Russia which may become an issue, via SIN (or PER) doesnt.

jrfspa320 wrote:

The other potential issue could be flight path via DRW if things escalate in Ukraine. At the moment via DRW overflies Russia which may become an issue, via SIN (or PER) doesnt.

The route from DRW to Europe is basically the standard route from Hong Kong/China/Korea/Japan to Europe, with QF1/2 flying in a straight line from DRW to HKG and then through China, Mongolia, Russia and into Northern Europe. The routing doesn’t go anywhere near Ukraine. Given that dozens of flights pass through that airspace I can’t really see why it would be affected; it wasn’t following MH17.

Regardless, a route approximating Darwin > Singapore > Delhi > Islamabad > Tehran > Sofia is still shorter than a straight line distance from Perth to London.

RyanairGuru wrote:

jrfspa320 wrote:

The other potential issue could be flight path via DRW if things escalate in Ukraine. At the moment via DRW overflies Russia which may become an issue, via SIN (or PER) doesnt.

The route from DRW to Europe is basically the standard route from Hong Kong/China/Korea/Japan to Europe, with QF1/2 flying in a straight line from DRW to HKG and then through China, Mongolia, Russia and into Northern Europe. The routing doesn’t go anywhere near Ukraine. Given that dozens of flights pass through that airspace I can’t really see why it would be affected; it wasn’t following MH17.

Regardless, a route approximating Darwin > Singapore > Delhi > Islamabad > Tehran > Sofia is still shorter than a straight line distance from Perth to London.

Not near Ukraine, but if there are sanctions / diplomatic intervention etc there may be overfly restrictions on Russia, this was done with Belarus. But yes there are other route options.

New Melbourne Airport master plan to be released today. Some media carrying a large bird's eye (rendered) view of the airfield-to-be.

https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/v ... takes-off/

Master plan document suite is in this virtual consultation room: https://caportal.com.au/melair/virtual

Overview video of new runway: https://caportal.com.au/melair/virtual? ... hirdRunway

Main document can be downloaded here: https://caportal.com.au/melair/virtual? ... 022Summary

I believe this render (from Page 157 of the Master Plan) has been floating about in the public domain before (or a different angel on it) but it gives you an idea of the kerbside change that could happen:

Vehicles fully redirected into the parking structure for pickup/drop off, existing departures road looks to be pedestrianised, and the new station is linked to the new departures level concourse (sloping roof in foreground). Note, it's all concept but, yeah, we're getting to the pointy end of MARL planning this year, so more official renders and what not will likely follow this.

Also, you can get a good idea of the airspace changes with the consultation tool... just click anywhere on the map, and it'll show any relevant bits of airspace that will have planes flying over.

https://caportal.com.au/melair/virtual/m3r

(click on the CBD and have a look at that new one!).

Whilst the plan has retained the golf course, the new security control point south the of where the access road goes under the taxiways to the new runway will mean there is no public access any longer towards the control tower and the current aircraft viewing area beside the N/S runway will be no more.

QF A380 VH-OQK flying LAX-AUH at present.
It's a refurb and in current paint.

Presumably means VH-OQC which has been in AUH since mid-June might be returning soon (maybe refurbed, maybe not since OQB wasn't during its DRS stint)

tullamarine wrote:

Whilst the plan has retained the golf course, the new security control point south the of where the access road goes under the taxiways to the new runway will mean there is no public access any longer towards the control tower and the current aircraft viewing area beside the N/S runway will be no more.

Will have to make the most of it over the next year or so. Suprised the Golf Club managed to get a stay of excecution.

With Melbourne's fickle weather, could they not extend the station roof 20metres and connect it to the terminal? I could probably guess that 99% of people using that station will be because they want to enter the terminal building.

It's a concept only, but well spotted - seriously, do a submission on it telling them to provide proper weather coverage.

I still think its amazing that a rail link into the country's second busiest airport has taken this long especially when there are existing rail corridors fairly close by.

Target opening date of 2029 - if west gate tunnel is anything to go by could blow out by 5 years.

So it looks like 09/27 is getting shortened to 1,940 metres which is very close to Essendon's 08/26 at 1,920m.

Surely this limits operating to single-aisle only now for east-west runway operations?

AeroplaneFreak wrote:

So it looks like 09/27 is getting shortened to 1,940 metres which is very close to Essendon's 08/26 at 1,920m.

Surely this limits operating to single-aisle only now for east-west runway operations?

Short / medium haul flight A330 / 787 should be fine off that with enough wind.

Wasn't there some pledge at one point by "the authorities" that a purpose "built" facility be provided for spotting? However I am resigned to the fact I will not see this in my lifetime.

TN486T wrote:

Wasn't there some pledge at one point by "the authorities" that a purpose "built" facility be provided for spotting? However I am resigned to the fact I will not see this in my lifetime.

I seem to recall that was more to do with improving the spot on Sunbury Road.

I am sad to hear about this though as it has been a spot I have gone to since I was young, seeing AN and TN/QF planes and only the occasional heavy come in, to a far more diverse offering in more recent times. It’s been my go to spot just to relax and watch the planes come and go.

Given the lack of any maintenance though since Covid, it seems more and more that they have given up on this viewing area though and are preparing for the next phase for the area. Sad.

Please continue discussion in Australian Aviation Thread - Feb 2022

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