Australian Aviation Thread - January 2022

qf789 · Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:15 am

Welcome to the Australian Aviation Thread - January 2022, Please add your comments below.

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1467401

Predictions for the year?

Some examples

Qantas new international routes, after SYD-PER-FCO announced they said they were going to announce some more leisure orientated routes, what do you think may be announced?
Qantas Project Sunrise??? more 787's ordered???
REX expanding to other cities for 737 service
Bonza starting perhaps in Q2
Virgin hopefully some news on the 737MAX due to enter in 2023
Also now the decision of what narrowbody will be ordered what new routes do you think we will see when they come online, both the A321XLR and A220

SCFlyer · Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:43 am

Happy New Year to everyone in this thread.

Predictions.
Out of left field:
* QF announcing MEL-PER-ATH
* QF's BNE-ORD brought 'forward' to Q4 2022 (October)
* Bonza actually starting early Q3.
* The A330 subfleet currently earmarked for BNE-LAX/SFO reallocated to the SYD/MEL-India services.

Possibilities:
* VA returning to AKL, CHC, WLG in Q2/Q3. ZQN returns first in late Q1.
* VA's BNE/OOL/CNS-AKL flights timed as feeders to the UA flights to SFO/LAX from AKL under a separate agreement (as an alternative option to VA/UA via SYD/MEL). Whilst VA can put their code on AKL-LAX/SFO, unfortunately UA can't put their code on VA's Trans-Tasman flights due to their separate JBA with NZ.
* Bain announcing a refloating of VAH on the ASX in Q3 with a timeline of Q4, Bain to maintain majority ownership however investment banks emerges with minority stakes, and UA emerges with a 5% stake in VA.
* JQ re-announcing their re-entry at OOL-ICN in partnership with Jeju Air.

Also a high chance (but could be wrong)
* Queensland Government 'in partnership' with Queensland Tourism and through the (Queensland taxpayer funded) Attracting Aviation Interest Fund (AAIF) announces UA's taxpayer subsidised entry on BNE-SFO in Q4 (October), with a initial 5x weekly 'seasonal' service. UA to likely hand the Queensland Government a 'break even' figure on both loads and yield on a 'use it or lose it' basis.
* Bain in partnership with UA backed with a reference from SQ offers to sponsor/help to pay VA's fees for application to the Star Alliance. Analyst eyes looks to NZ, but a high possibly NZ 'won't' stand in the way, preferring the 'best of both worlds' by maintaining the revenue from QF codeshare partnership, whilst getting 'pocket change' from the basic VA interline and FF interline as part of a hypothetical VA Star Alliance membership.
* VA formally announcing the return of the HND slot in conjunction with the Queensland Government announcement on a hypothetical taxpayer subsidised UA entry on BNE-SFO in Q4 2022, with QF to re-apply for that slot for their own BNE-HND flights.

Edit: And another possibility plus flashback:
* The infamous "will SQ take over/buy into VA" article pops in the media up after a 2 year absence during the proposed Bain refloating of VAH, of course the ol' 'SQ will buy into VA' will very likely end up as 'fake news' as always

beachroad · Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:45 am

I don't think you can quote between threads, but here goes:

"evanb
Posts: 1023
Joined: 5 years ago
#478
5 hours ago

jrfspa320 wrote:
Definitely is partly security. AU domestic security doesn't adhere to the standards required for intl flights and is unlikely to change with a relativity small number of intl flights and the ease of flying domestically is very popular - any changes would reduce its appeal particularly for short hops. Our turn up and go 30 mins before dept would not work with intl security.

The segregating of international and departing passengers isn't a security issue in Australia. Gate security can be done at gates for international flights that require different protocols. For example, this is often done for flights to the US from airports in Europe and other places. Australian Border Force requires segregation of passengers, passport check and sometimes biometric verification. It's often some at smart gates, but it is done nonetheless whereas this is not done in the US and UK."

It's quite common at Schengen airports that each gate can serve both "internal" flights (essentially the same as Australian domestic) and those outside of Schengen (essentially the same as Australian international departures/arrivals). To achieve it, piers have different floors. Put simply, you put a domestic concourse level on top of the international airside zones. Munich as mentioned is a good example.

Here at Keflavik is a good example. Passengers arrive in from the US, go down an escalator from the jetbridge, pass upstairs through passport and customs formalities, then turn left to the Schengen departure concourse at the same gate. In the reverse, from Schengen passengers go straight off the jetbridge, they arrive into the Schengen concourse, turn right to passport control and then pass downstairs to the non-schengen concourse, getting back sometimes on the same aircraft parked at the same gate.

Baggage systems would be a little more complex in Australia, as you'd need to have two collection halls.

So it can be done, but it would require significant terminal rebuilding. I can't think of any significant airports in the world that maintain such a disjointed arrangement, apart from Sydney and Brisbane.

a320fan · Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:56 am

beachroad wrote:
I don't think you can quote between threads, but here goes:

"evanb
Posts: 1023
Joined: 5 years ago
#478
5 hours ago

jrfspa320 wrote:
Definitely is partly security. AU domestic security doesn't adhere to the standards required for intl flights and is unlikely to change with a relativity small number of intl flights and the ease of flying domestically is very popular - any changes would reduce its appeal particularly for short hops. Our turn up and go 30 mins before dept would not work with intl security.

The segregating of international and departing passengers isn't a security issue in Australia. Gate security can be done at gates for international flights that require different protocols. For example, this is often done for flights to the US from airports in Europe and other places. Australian Border Force requires segregation of passengers, passport check and sometimes biometric verification. It's often some at smart gates, but it is done nonetheless whereas this is not done in the US and UK."

It's quite common at Schengen airports that each gate can serve both "internal" flights (essentially the same as Australian domestic) and those outside of Schengen (essentially the same as Australian international departures/arrivals). To achieve it, piers have different floors. Put simply, you put a domestic concourse level on top of the international airside zones. Munich as mentioned is a good example.

Here at Keflavik is a good example. Passengers arrive in from the US, go down an escalator from the jetbridge, pass upstairs through passport and customs formalities, then turn left to the Schengen departure concourse at the same gate. In the reverse, from Schengen passengers go straight off the jetbridge, they arrive into the Schengen concourse, turn right to passport control and then pass downstairs to the non-schengen concourse, getting back sometimes on the same aircraft parked at the same gate.

Baggage systems would be a little more complex in Australia, as you'd need to have two collection halls.

So it can be done, but it would require significant terminal rebuilding. I can't think of any significant airports in the world that maintain such a disjointed arrangement, apart from Sydney and Brisbane.

Auckland and to some extent Perth also has a very similar set up to SYD and BNE with completely disjointed domestic and international. The screening differences between international and domestic flights are very similar in NZ to AU, I’ve only flown through AKL however so I’d be curious to know what the set up is in Wellington, Christchurch and even Queenstown which all I believe have one terminal.

Baggage systems are not too difficult to segregate. International baggage claim is ‘airside’ before heading out through customs into the public areas. Domestic baggage claims are done landside in public areas. Domestic departures and arrivals freely mix airside so you’d only need one level for domestic in a mixed use facility.

NZ516 · Fri Dec 31, 2021 4:43 pm

a320fan wrote:
beachroad wrote:
I don't think you can quote between threads, but here goes:

"evanb
Posts: 1023
Joined: 5 years ago
#478
5 hours ago

jrfspa320 wrote:
Definitely is partly security. AU domestic security doesn't adhere to the standards required for intl flights and is unlikely to change with a relativity small number of intl flights and the ease of flying domestically is very popular - any changes would reduce its appeal particularly for short hops. Our turn up and go 30 mins before dept would not work with intl security.

The segregating of international and departing passengers isn't a security issue in Australia. Gate security can be done at gates for international flights that require different protocols. For example, this is often done for flights to the US from airports in Europe and other places. Australian Border Force requires segregation of passengers, passport check and sometimes biometric verification. It's often some at smart gates, but it is done nonetheless whereas this is not done in the US and UK."

It's quite common at Schengen airports that each gate can serve both "internal" flights (essentially the same as Australian domestic) and those outside of Schengen (essentially the same as Australian international departures/arrivals). To achieve it, piers have different floors. Put simply, you put a domestic concourse level on top of the international airside zones. Munich as mentioned is a good example.

Here at Keflavik is a good example. Passengers arrive in from the US, go down an escalator from the jetbridge, pass upstairs through passport and customs formalities, then turn left to the Schengen departure concourse at the same gate. In the reverse, from Schengen passengers go straight off the jetbridge, they arrive into the Schengen concourse, turn right to passport control and then pass downstairs to the non-schengen concourse, getting back sometimes on the same aircraft parked at the same gate.

Baggage systems would be a little more complex in Australia, as you'd need to have two collection halls.

So it can be done, but it would require significant terminal rebuilding. I can't think of any significant airports in the world that maintain such a disjointed arrangement, apart from Sydney and Brisbane.

Auckland and to some extent Perth also has a very similar set up to SYD and BNE with completely disjointed domestic and international. The screening differences between international and domestic flights are very similar in NZ to AU, I’ve only flown through AKL however so I’d be curious to know what the set up is in Wellington, Christchurch and even Queenstown which all I believe have one terminal.

Baggage systems are not too difficult to segregate. International baggage claim is ‘airside’ before heading out through customs into the public areas. Domestic baggage claims are done landside in public areas. Domestic departures and arrivals freely mix airside so you’d only need one level for domestic in a mixed use facility.

Here in Christchurch there is a single integrated terminal. How it works is when you arrive on an International flight you pass through security and claim your bag. Then you exit into the common area and you re check in your bag for your domestic flight and go through security again if it's a jet flight. There is no security check at the regional area. However if you are arriving on a domestic flight your bag is transited over to your international flight for you. All you need to do is pass through border patrol on the second level if it's the same airline and wait at the departure lounge.

RyanairGuru · Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:34 pm

NZ516 wrote:
a320fan wrote:
beachroad wrote:
I don't think you can quote between threads, but here goes:

"evanb
Posts: 1023
Joined: 5 years ago
#478
5 hours ago

jrfspa320 wrote:
Definitely is partly security. AU domestic security doesn't adhere to the standards required for intl flights and is unlikely to change with a relativity small number of intl flights and the ease of flying domestically is very popular - any changes would reduce its appeal particularly for short hops. Our turn up and go 30 mins before dept would not work with intl security.

The segregating of international and departing passengers isn't a security issue in Australia. Gate security can be done at gates for international flights that require different protocols. For example, this is often done for flights to the US from airports in Europe and other places. Australian Border Force requires segregation of passengers, passport check and sometimes biometric verification. It's often some at smart gates, but it is done nonetheless whereas this is not done in the US and UK."

It's quite common at Schengen airports that each gate can serve both "internal" flights (essentially the same as Australian domestic) and those outside of Schengen (essentially the same as Australian international departures/arrivals). To achieve it, piers have different floors. Put simply, you put a domestic concourse level on top of the international airside zones. Munich as mentioned is a good example.

Here at Keflavik is a good example. Passengers arrive in from the US, go down an escalator from the jetbridge, pass upstairs through passport and customs formalities, then turn left to the Schengen departure concourse at the same gate. In the reverse, from Schengen passengers go straight off the jetbridge, they arrive into the Schengen concourse, turn right to passport control and then pass downstairs to the non-schengen concourse, getting back sometimes on the same aircraft parked at the same gate.

Baggage systems would be a little more complex in Australia, as you'd need to have two collection halls.

So it can be done, but it would require significant terminal rebuilding. I can't think of any significant airports in the world that maintain such a disjointed arrangement, apart from Sydney and Brisbane.

Auckland and to some extent Perth also has a very similar set up to SYD and BNE with completely disjointed domestic and international. The screening differences between international and domestic flights are very similar in NZ to AU, I’ve only flown through AKL however so I’d be curious to know what the set up is in Wellington, Christchurch and even Queenstown which all I believe have one terminal.

Baggage systems are not too difficult to segregate. International baggage claim is ‘airside’ before heading out through customs into the public areas. Domestic baggage claims are done landside in public areas. Domestic departures and arrivals freely mix airside so you’d only need one level for domestic in a mixed use facility.

Here in Christchurch there is a single integrated terminal. How it works is when you arrive on an International flight you pass through security and claim your bag. Then you exit into the common area and you re check in your bag for your domestic flight and go through security again if it's a jet flight. There is no security check at the regional area. However if you are arriving on a domestic flight your bag is transited over to your international flight for you. All you need to do is pass through border patrol on the second level if it's the same airline and wait at the departure lounge.

But despite being one physical building there are two distinct piers, one for international and one for domestic. The gates are not interchangeable. In many ways CHC is more like a smaller scale T2/T3 at MEL rather than an properly integrated facility.

RyanairGuru · Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:49 pm

SCFlyer wrote:
Happy New Year to everyone in this thread.

Predictions.
Out of left field:
* QF announcing MEL-PER-ATH
* QF's BNE-ORD brought 'forward' to Q4 2022 (October)
* Bonza actually starting early Q3.
* The A330 subfleet currently earmarked for BNE-LAX/SFO reallocated to the SYD/MEL-India services.

Possibilities:
* VA returning to AKL, CHC, WLG in Q2/Q3. ZQN returns first in late Q1.
* VA's BNE/OOL/CNS-AKL flights timed as feeders to the UA flights to SFO/LAX from AKL under a separate agreement (as an alternative option to VA/UA via SYD/MEL). Whilst VA can put their code on AKL-LAX/SFO, unfortunately UA can't put their code on VA's Trans-Tasman flights due to their separate JBA with NZ.
* Bain announcing a refloating of VAH on the ASX in Q3 with a timeline of Q4, Bain to maintain majority ownership however investment banks emerges with minority stakes, and UA emerges with a 5% stake in VA.
* JQ re-announcing their re-entry at OOL-ICN in partnership with Jeju Air.

Also a high chance (but could be wrong)
* Queensland Government 'in partnership' with Queensland Tourism and through the (Queensland taxpayer funded) Attracting Aviation Interest Fund (AAIF) announces UA's taxpayer subsidised entry on BNE-SFO in Q4 (October), with a initial 5x weekly 'seasonal' service. UA to likely hand the Queensland Government a 'break even' figure on both loads and yield on a 'use it or lose it' basis.
* Bain in partnership with UA backed with a reference from SQ offers to sponsor/help to pay VA's fees for application to the Star Alliance. Analyst eyes looks to NZ, but a high possibly NZ 'won't' stand in the way, preferring the 'best of both worlds' by maintaining the revenue from QF codeshare partnership, whilst getting 'pocket change' from the basic VA interline and FF interline as part of a hypothetical VA Star Alliance membership.
* VA formally announcing the return of the HND slot in conjunction with the Queensland Government announcement on a hypothetical taxpayer subsidised UA entry on BNE-SFO in Q4 2022, with QF to re-apply for that slot for their own BNE-HND flights.

Edit: And another possibility plus flashback:
* The infamous "will SQ take over/buy into VA" article pops in the media up after a 2 year absence during the proposed Bain refloating of VAH, of course the ol' 'SQ will buy into VA' will very likely end up as 'fake news' as always

You really have a bee in your bonnet about the Qld government supporting new service don’t you? You bring it up at every possible opportunity. Out of interest, why are you so riled by the possibility?

More to the point, you say that UA cannot codeshare with VA across the Tasman due the existing JBA with NZ. Do you know that for sure or was that just speculation? I would be surprised if that was the case. The joint routes are those from USA to Australia/New Zealand. Tasman and domestic is basically just a codeshare.

tullamarine · Sat Jan 01, 2022 12:20 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Happy New Year to everyone in this thread.

Predictions.
Out of left field:
* QF announcing MEL-PER-ATH
* QF's BNE-ORD brought 'forward' to Q4 2022 (October)
* Bonza actually starting early Q3.
* The A330 subfleet currently earmarked for BNE-LAX/SFO reallocated to the SYD/MEL-India services.

Possibilities:
* VA returning to AKL, CHC, WLG in Q2/Q3. ZQN returns first in late Q1.
* VA's BNE/OOL/CNS-AKL flights timed as feeders to the UA flights to SFO/LAX from AKL under a separate agreement (as an alternative option to VA/UA via SYD/MEL). Whilst VA can put their code on AKL-LAX/SFO, unfortunately UA can't put their code on VA's Trans-Tasman flights due to their separate JBA with NZ.
* Bain announcing a refloating of VAH on the ASX in Q3 with a timeline of Q4, Bain to maintain majority ownership however investment banks emerges with minority stakes, and UA emerges with a 5% stake in VA.
* JQ re-announcing their re-entry at OOL-ICN in partnership with Jeju Air.

Also a high chance (but could be wrong)
* Queensland Government 'in partnership' with Queensland Tourism and through the (Queensland taxpayer funded) Attracting Aviation Interest Fund (AAIF) announces UA's taxpayer subsidised entry on BNE-SFO in Q4 (October), with a initial 5x weekly 'seasonal' service. UA to likely hand the Queensland Government a 'break even' figure on both loads and yield on a 'use it or lose it' basis.
* Bain in partnership with UA backed with a reference from SQ offers to sponsor/help to pay VA's fees for application to the Star Alliance. Analyst eyes looks to NZ, but a high possibly NZ 'won't' stand in the way, preferring the 'best of both worlds' by maintaining the revenue from QF codeshare partnership, whilst getting 'pocket change' from the basic VA interline and FF interline as part of a hypothetical VA Star Alliance membership.
* VA formally announcing the return of the HND slot in conjunction with the Queensland Government announcement on a hypothetical taxpayer subsidised UA entry on BNE-SFO in Q4 2022, with QF to re-apply for that slot for their own BNE-HND flights.

Edit: And another possibility plus flashback:
* The infamous "will SQ take over/buy into VA" article pops in the media up after a 2 year absence during the proposed Bain refloating of VAH, of course the ol' 'SQ will buy into VA' will very likely end up as 'fake news' as always

You really have a bee in your bonnet about the Qld government supporting new service don’t you? You bring it up at every possible opportunity. Out of interest, why are you so riled by the possibility?

More to the point, you say that UA cannot codeshare with VA across the Tasman due the existing JBA with NZ. Do you know that for sure or was that just speculation? I would be surprised if that was the case. The joint routes are those from USA to Australia/New Zealand. Tasman and domestic is basically just a codeshare.

He does seem to have a few things that irk him and most of them are speculative anyway. Most of them centre around VA in one way or another so I assume he may be not particularly fond of them for one reason or another.

SCFlyer · Sat Jan 01, 2022 12:46 am

tullamarine wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
Happy New Year to everyone in this thread.

Predictions.
Out of left field:
* QF announcing MEL-PER-ATH
* QF's BNE-ORD brought 'forward' to Q4 2022 (October)
* Bonza actually starting early Q3.
* The A330 subfleet currently earmarked for BNE-LAX/SFO reallocated to the SYD/MEL-India services.

Possibilities:
* VA returning to AKL, CHC, WLG in Q2/Q3. ZQN returns first in late Q1.
* VA's BNE/OOL/CNS-AKL flights timed as feeders to the UA flights to SFO/LAX from AKL under a separate agreement (as an alternative option to VA/UA via SYD/MEL). Whilst VA can put their code on AKL-LAX/SFO, unfortunately UA can't put their code on VA's Trans-Tasman flights due to their separate JBA with NZ.
* Bain announcing a refloating of VAH on the ASX in Q3 with a timeline of Q4, Bain to maintain majority ownership however investment banks emerges with minority stakes, and UA emerges with a 5% stake in VA.
* JQ re-announcing their re-entry at OOL-ICN in partnership with Jeju Air.

Also a high chance (but could be wrong)
* Queensland Government 'in partnership' with Queensland Tourism and through the (Queensland taxpayer funded) Attracting Aviation Interest Fund (AAIF) announces UA's taxpayer subsidised entry on BNE-SFO in Q4 (October), with a initial 5x weekly 'seasonal' service. UA to likely hand the Queensland Government a 'break even' figure on both loads and yield on a 'use it or lose it' basis.
* Bain in partnership with UA backed with a reference from SQ offers to sponsor/help to pay VA's fees for application to the Star Alliance. Analyst eyes looks to NZ, but a high possibly NZ 'won't' stand in the way, preferring the 'best of both worlds' by maintaining the revenue from QF codeshare partnership, whilst getting 'pocket change' from the basic VA interline and FF interline as part of a hypothetical VA Star Alliance membership.
* VA formally announcing the return of the HND slot in conjunction with the Queensland Government announcement on a hypothetical taxpayer subsidised UA entry on BNE-SFO in Q4 2022, with QF to re-apply for that slot for their own BNE-HND flights.

Edit: And another possibility plus flashback:
* The infamous "will SQ take over/buy into VA" article pops in the media up after a 2 year absence during the proposed Bain refloating of VAH, of course the ol' 'SQ will buy into VA' will very likely end up as 'fake news' as always

You really have a bee in your bonnet about the Qld government supporting new service don’t you? You bring it up at every possible opportunity. Out of interest, why are you so riled by the possibility?

More to the point, you say that UA cannot codeshare with VA across the Tasman due the existing JBA with NZ. Do you know that for sure or was that just speculation? I would be surprised if that was the case. The joint routes are those from USA to Australia/New Zealand. Tasman and domestic is basically just a codeshare.

He does seem to have a few things that irk him and most of them are speculative anyway. Most of them centre around VA in one way or another so I assume he may be not particularly fond of them for one reason or another.

Well done on the assumption, but no.

I can list a bunch more of QF route speculations with the XLRs/JQ LRs but it's widely predicted at this point and would've flooded the post with a larger wall of text.

vhqpa · Sat Jan 01, 2022 1:31 am

qf789 wrote:
Qantas new international routes, after SYD-PER-FCO announced they said they were going to announce some more leisure orientated routes, what do you think may be announced?

This is what I'm looking forward to most it's quite interesting to see a much more nimble QF jump into these sort of markets, a very different approach than pre COVID.

I'm guessing ATH, LAS, CDG are the most likely new long haul routes. Out of left field maybe CPT, EZE, or BER. Quite unlikely but I'd like to see something ambitious like SYD-MEX-ACA-SYD.

as for non QF predictions. Probably UA to BNE, unsure whether from SFO or LAX, perhaps both split 3/4 weekly.

VA to forfeit its HND slots, with QF moving BNE-NRT to HND, closing it's station at NRT.

Once enough JQ 321XLR are delivered JQ 788 fleet to move to QF to partially replace some of QF's older A330 fleet.

tullamarine · Sat Jan 01, 2022 1:52 am

vhqpa wrote:
qf789 wrote:
Qantas new international routes, after SYD-PER-FCO announced they said they were going to announce some more leisure orientated routes, what do you think may be announced?

This is what I'm looking forward to most it's quite interesting to see a much more nimble QF jump into these sort of markets, a very different approach than pre COVID.

I'm guessing ATH, LAS, CDG are the most likely new long haul routes. Out of left field maybe CPT, EZE, or BER. Quite unlikely but I'd like to see something ambitious like SYD-MEX-ACA-SYD.

as for non QF predictions. Probably UA to BNE, unsure whether from SFO or LAX, perhaps both split 3/4 weekly.

VA to forfeit its HND slots, with QF moving BNE-NRT to HND, closing it's station at NRT.

Once enough JQ 321XLR are delivered JQ 788 fleet to move to QF to partially replace some of QF's older A330 fleet.

It will be interesting. How international bounces back is still very much up in the air (excuse the pun). Current restrictions and testing requirements mean that it is currently all a bit hard. I'm off to SIN for work next week and the documentation and testing requirements are painful. As it is, there is no way international travel can scale up to anything approaching normality; the requirements are just too time consuming to enable a large number of people to move through borders. Lots of airlines, including QF, will be encouraged to be more adventurous to try and maximise revenue. Whether it works is anybody's guess.

I think you are right on the HND slots. The new VA appears very disciplined in implementing their chosen strategy and long-haul international travel using their own metal is no longer core to them.

You are probably right about the JQ 788s. Long-haul LCCs haven't proven a success anywhere and the planes are unsaleable in the current market and make sense as replacements for the oldest A330s.

Not too sure about markets like ATH. It is very much a VFR route so probably makes more sense using the EK JV to serve it as a one-stop from everywhere route. Likewise, I can't see LAS getting up. Oneworld is notoriously weak in central Europe so a market like FRA, BER or CDG has to stand on its own with O&D pax because there is no Oneworld hub in central Europe to connect into.

SCFlyer · Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:00 am

MEX is a thin long haul route, can't see that happening in any circumstances. ATH is a slim chance, but unlikely. In the slim chance that QF were to fly to ATH, it'll most likely be via SIN (although MEL-PER-ATH does make sense from a VFR perspective) and competing with TZ.

BER and CDG would have to stand up largely on their own O&D from Australia as a whole (rather than one city) due to the Oneworld gap. It's 'adventurous', but the O&D numbers and yields would also have to stack up with passengers prepared to transfer via the PER (or any other) Australian hub, otherwise it's best left to the EK codeshares.
Edit: Also forgot the AF codeshare, so SYD/MEL-PER-CDG is plausible.

Considering the reports that JQ was looking at 'selling' 3 of their 788s, I would not be surprised if a handful of the 788s moved to QF mainline as the LRs get delivered.
Any HNL flying is likely to be moved to QF, DPS flying of course moved to the LRs. I think the OOL-NRT/ICN flying will be around for bit as JQ reduces their 788 fleet, however their long term plans are still in the air (via CNS or axe entirely), as I can't see those being moved to QF, as there's the BNE-NRT (or HND - on the assumption VA formally announces the return of their slot) QF option up the road.

melpax · Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:56 am

SCFlyer wrote:
MEX is a thin long haul route, can't see that happening in any circumstances. ATH is a slim chance, but unlikely. In the slim chance that QF were to fly to ATH, it'll most likely be via SIN (although MEL-PER-ATH does make sense from a VFR perspective) and competing with TZ.

BER and CDG would have to stand up largely on their own O&D from Australia as a whole (rather than one city) due to the Oneworld gap. It's 'adventurous', but the O&D numbers and yields would also have to stack up with passengers prepared to transfer via the PER (or any other) Australian hub, otherwise it's best left to the EK codeshares.
Edit: Also forgot the AF codeshare, so SYD/MEL-PER-CDG is plausible.

Considering the reports that JQ was looking at 'selling' 3 of their 788s, I would not be surprised if a handful of the 788s moved to QF mainline as the LRs get delivered.
Any HNL flying is likely to be moved to QF, DPS flying of course moved to the LRs. I think the OOL-NRT/ICN flying will be around for bit as JQ reduces their 788 fleet, however their long term plans are still in the air (via CNS or axe entirely), as I can't see those being moved to QF, as there's the BNE-NRT (or HND - on the assumption VA formally announces the return of their slot) QF option up the road.

Can't see a lot of premium demand from Australia to MEX, minimal leisure demand & not a huge amount of business traffic. If QF were looking to do a Mexican route in the current situation, CUN would probably be the best option, Playa Del Carmen & Tulum were popular with Aussies pre-COVID. Though CUN would be best served as an AA connection from the DFW flights.

Once Japan opens back up, KIX should be reinstated, will be strong leisure demand for Kansai/Kyoto areas.

smi0006 · Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:09 am

Happy new year everyone! May 2022 be smoother skies ahead!

Predictions;
For QF-
PER-CDG year round
PER-ATH seasonal, but will only last one season as a great way for QF to burn points that have accumulated.
SYD-ICN
SYD/BNE-APW
Long shot! Seasonal SYD-PPT again only one season

Non-QF:
BNE-SFO/LAX UA
BNE-DOH QR due to expanded bilateral
MEL-HND NH
MEL-ICN KE

Not too much tbh, things will ramp up again in 2023

kriskim · Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:37 am

My predictions:

- JQ’s MEL-HNL/BKK flying moves to QF
- JQ to launch MEL-KIX to compliment CNS-KIX
- QH launches MEL-SGN (confirmed) and MEL-HAN opens in Q4 2022
- Based on the success of DEL, QF to launch MEL-BOM
- GA to return to MEL, flying both CGK and DPS. CGK is also a good option for QF’s A321XLR
- SB return to MEL, I think they will focus on short haul markets and MEL could be lucrative for them post COVID
- KE to launch MEL-ICN, there were talks of OZ launching permanent services to MEL after it’s initial seasonal run. There were a few repat flights from MEL with both KE and OZ, so there seems to be decent demand

We still don’t know what 2022 brings! Hoping it’s all looking up from here!

DavidByrne · Sat Jan 01, 2022 4:46 am

My prediction for 2022: New international routes will be started and dropped, mainly because there will be ongoing significant travel hesitancy due to ongoing covid infections and also the bureaucracy of testing and travel. Some new P2P services, however, may still get support, especially where they allow pax to avoid certain hubs. Eventually I think the network will more-or-less resemble the pre-pandemic network, but at lower frequencies than 2019.

The airlines are certainly ramping up speculation about new routes etc because they want the recovery to come and come quickly, but internationally there's no evidence that the recovery is happening fast or in a manner sufficient to soak up all the increased capacity - in fact, rather the opposite.

I fear that A-netters have bought into the airlines' hype unquestioningly and uncritically. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, and that I'm being a wet blanket, but I still believe that we will look back in several years' time and acknowledge that 2019 was, in fact "peak travel".

redroo · Sat Jan 01, 2022 5:32 am

My predictions for 2022

- international border restrictions will ease and people will take their first international trips in two years. The testing regimes and horror stories of being forced to quarantine because you caught COVID along the way will cause many people to park international travel for a while because of the hassle. This will cause the airlines pain.

- domestic business travel will pick up again

- the 788s will go QF to enable more point to point VFR flying.

I’m really eager to see how QF will use the longer range A321. Short of DPS from the east coast I don’t know what they’re going to do with them. I can’t see them launching PER BKK or PER HKG, put who knows that Mascot have discover Perth exists and you can fly from it (subject to PAPL mood).

Would love to see PER CDG… then I can say to friends in London that I too can visit Paris for the weekend, and still live on the beach :-)

Chipmunk1973 · Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:16 am

Happy New Year everyone. Hoping 2022 is a prosperous year for all.

Predictions…

Highly Probable.
- QF will announce a new domestic cabin that will be rolled out in the forthcoming A220s and A320s.
- QF will formally proceed with Project Sunrise and announce orders for A35Ks in a 4 class config.
- Bonza folds within 3 months.

Somewhat Probable
- REX adjust their plans for the 737 fleet by keeping flights between capitals at peak periods only. Fleet used for non peak at more leisure oriented destinations.
- VA have a partial float on the ASX with a poor result resulting in a share buy back.
- No CoVid travel restrictions by Q4.

Remote
- QF order the A359.

Cheers.

myki · Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:41 am

One that i have missed: how long has QF169/170 been running on the DRW-DIL route?

SCFlyer · Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:49 am

myki wrote:
One that i have missed: how long has QF169/170 been running on the DRW-DIL route?

Has been operating since April 2021, temporarily replacing the Air North service. However it seems Air North has resumed their own Dili service as of December 22, but as a weekly service.

I'm not sure if the QF service is operating alongside the Air North service to Dili.

Obzerva · Sat Jan 01, 2022 9:30 am

redroo wrote:
My predictions for 2022
I’m really eager to see how QF will use the longer range A321. Short of DPS from the east coast I don’t know what they’re going to do with them. I can’t see them launching PER BKK or PER HKG, put who knows that Mascot have discover Perth exists and you can fly from it (subject to PAPL mood).

I'm curious as to whether they would try KUL on the A321LR.

I know some people who still have a hesitancy for MH, a longer range A321 would be a good way of taking a small bite of the market share, knowing that KUL doesn't have the business traffic of SIN.

moa999 · Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:18 am

- Don't see a 220/320 cabin launch until closer to deliveries (keep your cards close)
- Think Bonza will struggle to launch in 2022
- Possibly see some JQ 788s moved to QF as JQ receives 321LRs
- Sunrise order a maybe, but likely end of year

- Not sure what Chipmunk means by the VA comment, but if they are floated, they won't have the capacity to conduct a buyback for years.

EK413 · Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:44 am

Happy New Year a.netters,

Big thanks to all the posts concerning Domestic and International operations under the one roof.

I didn’t take into account vast amount of work required to incorporate customs, security and the international carousels etc. probably from a clean sheet design the process would be straight forward but when you working with existing infrastructure which is operational certainly comes with its challenges.

For all the spotters, flying whale -OQB will commence crew training flights 5th of January through to the 10th of January ahead of the resumption of SYD-LAX services. The circuit training flights are similar to the B789 training flights.

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AirbusA322 · Sat Jan 01, 2022 12:10 pm

-Bonza to launch mid year. However will struggle to gain traction due to route strategy. Can’t really comment at this stage awaiting route network.
-Rex will continue for the new year on the current strategy. Investor will loose patience in 2023 after 2022 still not firing.
-Jetstar will loose market share as a result of Virgin and Rex and Bonza drawing away its passengers.
-Virgin to add to its MAX order.
-Jetstar 787 fleet cuts (3 previously put up for sale before the pandemic)
-Alan Joyce to announce his departure from 2023 following ending of contract. Jetstar boss to take the reigns. Vanessa Hudson to take on Jetstar.
-Rex will cry like a baby over Sydney slots

beachroad · Sat Jan 01, 2022 1:42 pm

My predictions:

- Office workers to remain working at home whenever they can (less commuting = better work/life balance), which will reduce demand for business flights (why travel to an office interstate when half the people will be at home?)
- Slow return to interstate VFR and leisure, as cases worsen towards the winter and media debate about border restrictions returns
- Intra state leisure demand on some routes has potential for growth (e.g. SYD-BNK & BNE-CNS etc)
- International return is likely to focus in western nations. As Asia maintains an aggressive stance against tourists and COVID, visits there won't be practical
- After the Federal Election international tourism will open up, all be it slowly (Asian nations won't encourage their citizens to travel for a while yet)
- When Asia does open up (whenever that is), it'll drive pent up VFR, but it will be years before Asian tourism comes back.

I think the sad truth is that the business triangle is never coming back as it was, we'll see some business travel of course, but flying in for low value meetings or routine visits is a thing of the past.

I'd be tempted to experiment and put a proper (but small) lie flat product on Jetstar 787s, with Qantas lounge access. Eleven Dreamliners with a lie flat product and low cost base, could be quite interesting in a world much more reliant upon VFR.

NZ516 · Sat Jan 01, 2022 5:46 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
NZ516 wrote:
a320fan wrote:

Auckland and to some extent Perth also has a very similar set up to SYD and BNE with completely disjointed domestic and international. The screening differences between international and domestic flights are very similar in NZ to AU, I’ve only flown through AKL however so I’d be curious to know what the set up is in Wellington, Christchurch and even Queenstown which all I believe have one terminal.

Baggage systems are not too difficult to segregate. International baggage claim is ‘airside’ before heading out through customs into the public areas. Domestic baggage claims are done landside in public areas. Domestic departures and arrivals freely mix airside so you’d only need one level for domestic in a mixed use facility.

Here in Christchurch there is a single integrated terminal. How it works is when you arrive on an International flight you pass through security and claim your bag. Then you exit into the common area and you re check in your bag for your domestic flight and go through security again if it's a jet flight. There is no security check at the regional area. However if you are arriving on a domestic flight your bag is transited over to your international flight for you. All you need to do is pass through border patrol on the second level if it's the same airline and wait at the departure lounge.

But despite being one physical building there are two distinct piers, one for international and one for domestic. The gates are not interchangeable. In many ways CHC is more like a smaller scale T2/T3 at MEL rather than an properly integrated facility.

There are two swing gates that are interchangeable in CHC. They are 21 and 22 for a domestic arrival and swing over for an international flight then they become 25 and 26. The aircraft does not move on the gate and it can work in reverse.

Chipmunk1973 · Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:35 pm

moa999 wrote:
- Not sure what Chipmunk means by the VA comment, but if they are floated, they won't have the capacity to conduct a buyback for years.

I was just trying to keep the comments short and sweet, so to speak. If they proceed with a share buy back I wouldn’t expect it to be immediate. Possibly announced 9 months or so after the float.

Cheers.

DavidByrne · Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:42 pm

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
moa999 wrote:
- Not sure what Chipmunk means by the VA comment, but if they are floated, they won't have the capacity to conduct a buyback for years.

I was just trying to keep the comments short and sweet, so to speak. If they proceed with a share buy back I wouldn’t expect it to be immediate. Possibly announced 9 months or so after the float.

Cheers.

Not sure about this strategy. Share buy-backs usually occur when a company has become exceedingly profitable and has $$$ to either pay out to its investors, or if it sees merit in having a higher share price, to reduce the number of shares by buying them back and cancelling them. I don't think that VA will be in this situation for a very long time!

tullamarine · Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:12 am

Chipmunk1973 wrote:
moa999 wrote:
- Not sure what Chipmunk means by the VA comment, but if they are floated, they won't have the capacity to conduct a buyback for years.

I was just trying to keep the comments short and sweet, so to speak. If they proceed with a share buy back I wouldn’t expect it to be immediate. Possibly announced 9 months or so after the float.

Cheers.

I think you may mean that there would be an overhang with the underwriters that needs to be cleaned up. Typically, this would not be via a buyback but with the underwriter gradually releasing their excess shares onto the market over a period of time. Usually an underwriting agreement will include an agreement on the period of time the underwriters must hold excess shares before they can sell.

SCFlyer · Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:31 am

DavidByrne wrote:
Chipmunk1973 wrote:
moa999 wrote:
- Not sure what Chipmunk means by the VA comment, but if they are floated, they won't have the capacity to conduct a buyback for years.

I was just trying to keep the comments short and sweet, so to speak. If they proceed with a share buy back I wouldn’t expect it to be immediate. Possibly announced 9 months or so after the float.

Cheers.

Not sure about this strategy. Share buy-backs usually occur when a company has become exceedingly profitable and has $$$ to either pay out to its investors, or if it sees merit in having a higher share price, to reduce the number of shares by buying them back and cancelling them. I don't think that VA will be in this situation for a very long time!

Whilst Bain has denied plans they had refloating of VAH in 2022 in AFR/The Australian, they haven't exactly ruled it out either. They were reported to be stating in the (paywall) News Corp media that 'Investment Banks' has approached Bain directly on a refloating of VAH in 2022, and they are investigating all options.

If they do refloat VAH, my prediction/guess is that it would be in Q4.

CraigAnderson · Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:03 am

The way Bain and KH totally shafted former CEO Paul Scurrah after so much talk about Bain supporting him and JH not being interested in the CEO role, then were clearly exposed as having lied through their teeth all along, makes me believe not a single word from their lips now, and that includes weasel words about a refloat.

moa999 · Mon Jan 03, 2022 9:55 am

Bain Wil float the business when it's most advantageous to them.

Given they bought a very distressed asset in challenging times, that's arguably going to be as quickly as possible when the aviation markets looks somewhat normal (obviously dependent on Covid).

Being drawn into a Bonza/ Rex price war is probably their worst nightmare.

EK413 · Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:17 am

I definitely see the PER-JNB flights kicking off…

Qantas resumes flights to Johannesburg

Johannesburg is back on the Qantas map, and flights from both Sydney and Perth could lie in the future.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... 1641258704

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AdvancedBikkie · Tue Jan 04, 2022 9:38 am

Happy new year all. Here are my predictions for 2022.
- QF will receive JQ 788s as they recieve A321LRs to replace A332/333s. This is actually really interesting, because it could be similar to what happened when QF got transferred JQ's old A330s, because they were retiring the 767s. So in a sense, it could be deja vu for the A330s.
- Building on PER-FCO, QF could launch new routes between PER and FRA, CDG, and possibly have a route from MEL-PER-ATH.
- Bonza will launch and either:
1. Struggle to survive, because the Aus. market isn't big enough for a concept like theirs, or:
2. Be a great hit, and be like an Aussie Southwest. Personally, I think the first option is more likely, but we've been surprised before.
- We'll see UA being more focused on Australia because of their partnership with VA: possibly flights to BNE?
- Joyce said today that 'they have a range of new international routes to launch in the next few months'. Could this be the aforementioned routes from PER, or SYD/PER to JNB? These could also possibly be more routes to Asia from PER/ADL (but as a West Aussie, I'm not going to get my hopes up - I've had my hopes up, then dashed by QF before :/).
- We finally see the reboot of Project Sunrise, and a firm outline of fleet (ex. specific A350 used, firm routes and timetables, etc.).

My wishes for 2022 include:
- A firm outline of F, C, J, and Y to be used on Project Sunrise - I also hope that we see any new amenities they were talking about introducing.
- Purely me being a selfish West Aussie, but new flights from PER to destinations with demand in Asia (possibly those like PER-HND/ICN).
- VA finally announcing they'll re-enter the long-haul market? I know it was unprofitable for them, but I think they could make it work. This is definitely a pipe dream though.

Question, though: For QF and Project Sunrise, which seats do you think they'll reuse from their current products, if any? And what are some elements that you think'll be on these new products (like enclosing doors in F, for example).

smi0006 · Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:10 am

I actually think in someways watching JQ relaunch flights will be interesting- I wonder if in addition to the 787s we may see some early 321LR moved to QF for SIN Tasman and PI?

Reason I propose this is international business traffic may take a while to return, QF may struggle to fill some flights to Asia. Leisure travel is talked about as coming back, and AJ has said so - but not critically to JQ not too sure how fast low cost leisure travel will return? Thinking of when I planned a SIN trip and needed 5-6 tests for one! For a family of four planning a Bali or Thailand trip on a budget, suddenly a domestic trip to the Gold Coast is more appealing, especially with the current testing fiasco.

I think more so than QF, JQs international network will be competing with domestic destination due to costs for its budget conscious travellers, and may struggle in the early years of recovery whilst restrictions remain and trust is low. They won’t have the same scale either. Different for less budget conscious customers who would normally choose QF or who have FF miles to burn.

kriskim · Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:19 am

The UA and VA partnership for the time being is only a code share and reciprocal frequent flyer benefits, it is not a JV similar to DL. I think some people are reading too much into this as I see this as VA merely feeding UA’s flights from MEL and SYD, well in the short to medium term anyways as the market recovers.

UA was VA’s Nth American partner before, when they were DJ but ditched it when they went long haul and formed a JV with DL. UA has a bigger presence now but are still building their services from both MEL and SYD.

melpax · Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:24 am

[quote="smi0006"][/quote]

As long as testing requirements (especially PCR) remain for overseas destinations, most 'family' travellers will stick with domestic holidays. As you said, too much of a hassle for most families, and a decent risk of having your holiday derailed with a positive result.

An old school mate & his wife have just got back from Fiji, he shared a photo on FB of a section of their resort that was quarantined-off for those who had tested positive after arrival. I would be gutted to spend a holiday in quarantine after all the pre-departure hassle.....

SCFlyer · Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:46 am

kriskim wrote:
UA was VA’s Nth American partner before, when they were DJ but ditched it when they went long haul and formed a JV with DL. UA has a bigger presence now but are still building their services from both MEL and SYD.

The old DJ/UA partnership was basically a simple codeshare and interline agreement, much like the 'new' UA/VA agreement now.

Only this time the new agreement includes FF recognition on both ends, whereas previously the old DJ/UA agreement only allowed points burn on Mileage Plus on DJ flights.

Also to add, it also allows VA to feed into UA at AKL as well (making VA's BNE-AKL services a viable route to return to) as a cheaper alternative for the VFR/Disneyland crowd to the QF non-stops or the other 1 stop options (NZ, FJ, HA, etc).

qf2048 · Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:35 pm

I saw a video on youtube of SAS's new A321LR? They have configured it with lie flat J. A small Y+ ( 2 + 2) cabin and remaining economy. I would love to see QF adopt something like this. For the likes of say ADL-SIN it would be ideal. I'd personally pay to sit in Y+ for a flight of that length on a small plane.

x1234 · Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:19 am

Since QF 789's do SYD-JNB and soon SYD-SCL, I assume they have ETOPS 330?

log0008 · Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:44 am

Hong Kong has banned flights from Australia, including for transits.

CraigAnderson · Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:25 am

Sharing this latest news press release from the Australian AirlineRatings website.

Perth, Australia Jan 5, 2021: AirlineRatings.com (www.AirlineRatings.com), the world’s only safety, product and COVID-19 rating website, has named Air New Zealand as its safest airline for 2022.

AirlineRatings.com has also announced its Top Twenty safest airlines and Top Ten safest low-cost airlines from the 385 airlines it monitors.

The top twenty are the who’s who of airlines and are in numerical order:

Air New Zealand, Etihad Airways, Qatar Airways, Singapore Airlines, TAP Portugal, SAS, Qantas, Alaska Airlines, EVA Air, Virgin Australia/Atlantic, Cathay Pacific Airways, Hawaiian Airlines, American Airlines, Lufthansa/Swiss Group, Finnair, Air France/KLM Group, British Airways, Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and Emirates.

“These airlines like Air New Zealand, have outstanding records and are at the forefront of safety,” said AirlineRatings.com Editor-in-Chief, Geoffrey Thomas.

“Air New Zealand also has an extremely young fleet and its pilots fly in some of the most difficult conditions from windy Wellington to the Southern Alps.

“The last two years have been extremely difficult for airlines with COVID-19 slashing travel and Airline Ratings editors have particularly focused on the lengths airlines are undertaking to re-train pilots ahead of a return to service. Air New Zealand is a leader in this field with comprehensive retraining.”

“Air New Zealand has also been a lead airline in many major operational safety advancements over the past 40 years,” Mr. Thomas said.

AirlineRatings.com editors also identified their Top Ten safest low-cost airlines.

These are in alphabetical order: Allegiant, easyjet, Frontier, Jetstar Group, Jetblue, Ryanair, Vietjet, Volaris, Westjet, and Wizz.

In arriving at its award winners AirlineRatings.com editors and its industry advisors take into account numerous critical factors that include: airline’s crash and serious incident record, fleet age, audits from aviation’s governing bodies and lead associations; government audits, operational innovation, COVID protocols, and balance sheet strength.

EK413 · Wed Jan 05, 2022 11:19 am

Simple flying thinks that United may add BNE

https://simpleflying.com/virgin-austral ... re-filing/

United Airlines has the largest footprint of US airlines between the US and Australia. The airline currently runs daily nonstop flights from San Francisco (SFO) and Los Angeles (LAX) to Sydney (SYD). Flights from Houston (IAH) to SYD and flights from Melbourne (MEL) to SFO and LAX are also expected to resume this year. Under the codeshare agreement, United will be able to offer connections to Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide.

United Airlines has shown that it is willing to leverage partnerships to launch new flights. It would not be surprising to see United add flights to new destinations in Australia that Virgin does not serve, like Brisbane. Virgin Australia, alternatively, could use the partnership to return its transpacific market.

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beachroad · Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:31 pm

Perhaps not surprising events, but lots of minor errors by pilots after a longtime grounded has made the headlines after an internal Qantas memo was leaked.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/qantas-pilots-making-errors-after-long-periods-without-flying-20211228-p59kib.html

Some of the comments in here :stirthepot:

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/melbourne/programs/mornings/pilots-making-errors-after-long-time-grounded/13696424/

“One of the problems at Qantas is you’ve got a group of people who believe they’re elite. They still don’t understand Qantas isn’t owned by the government (anymore), and there’s not just a bottomless pit to throw money at their avarice.

“A bit more loyalty from the Qantas pilots, a bit more commitment to doing their job properly, and this story wouldn’t exist.”

SCFlyer · Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:47 pm

EK413 wrote:
Simple flying thinks that United may add BNE

https://simpleflying.com/virgin-austral ... re-filing/

United Airlines has the largest footprint of US airlines between the US and Australia. The airline currently runs daily nonstop flights from San Francisco (SFO) and Los Angeles (LAX) to Sydney (SYD). Flights from Houston (IAH) to SYD and flights from Melbourne (MEL) to SFO and LAX are also expected to resume this year. Under the codeshare agreement, United will be able to offer connections to Brisbane, Perth, and Adelaide.

United Airlines has shown that it is willing to leverage partnerships to launch new flights. It would not be surprising to see United add flights to new destinations in Australia that Virgin does not serve, like Brisbane. Virgin Australia, alternatively, could use the partnership to return its transpacific market.

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Interesting it's from one of the authors on the American end (Singh) and not the Australian authors (Curran).

The UA codeshsre does also apply onto VAi to Fiji, Bali and NZ (replacing the DL and Aeromexico codes).

As per previous opinion, with the Omicron uncertainty this year which will no doubt affect confidence this year with the lingering uncertainty of borders, There's a better chance of VA resuming BNE/OOL/CNS to AKL in the short term to connect to UA's services to AKL in 2022 to provide options to Queensland flyers, than UA starting BNE on their own metal in 2022 without the State Government partnership.

SInGAPORE_AIR · Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:45 pm

CraigAnderson wrote:
AirlineRatings.com (http://www.AirlineRatings.com), the world’s only safety, product and COVID-19 rating website

Oh please

myki · Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:46 pm

SInGAPORE_AIR wrote:
CraigAnderson wrote:
AirlineRatings.com (http://www.AirlineRatings.com), the world’s only safety, product and COVID-19 rating website

Oh please

When it is based on audits from aviation’s governing bodies and lead associations, government audits and balance sheet strength, naturally Etihad would be the second airline I think of to get high marks there

OlympicATH · Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:30 pm

AdvancedBikkie wrote:
- Building on PER-FCO, QF could launch new routes between PER and FRA, CDG, and possibly have a route from MEL-PER-ATH.

QF to ATH is obviously a very long shot but just thought I'd point out that contrary to common belief on a.net (given the size of the Greek community in Melbourne), SYD-ATH is a larger market than MEL-ATH. Marginally, but still.

Based on Athens Airport data, 74,500 people flew between SYD and ATH in 2019, vs. 64,000 between MEL and ATH. Probably not a coincidence that OA dropped MEL before SYD when they still flew to Australia a couple of decades ago.

Mind you, both are large numbers and could justify three or so weekly flights. Now that DL is launching BOS-ATH next summer, SYD will be the largest unserved route out of ATH (LAX is 2nd, MEL is 3rd).

Just not sure about the yields to make ULH work, especially given the massive one stop competition.

CraigAnderson · Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:10 pm

A good wide-ranging piece on Executive Traveller this morning where they interview a UA exec about the carrier's alliance with VA and plans for Australia.

https://www.executivetraveller.com/news ... artnership

Key take-aways:
* all Boeing 787-9s will have new Polaris and premium economy ('Premium Plus') seats by mid-year, and I'm sure they will make sure that SYD-LAX and SYD-SFO have those upgraded 789s when the UA-VA partnership launches in April
* MEL-LAX and MEL-SFO will be the next AU routes to be restored, followed by SYD-IAH
* United also open to flying to BNE, well of course they would say that but I am sure there are discussions going on for BNE-LAX or BNE-SFO or maybe even a 'split schedule' to stop QF having a monopoly on both, and of course if UA adds BNE-LAX this is yet another sign that Virgin Australia 2.0 has walked away from long-haul travel.

CraigAnderson · Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:15 pm

EK413 wrote:
Simple flying thinks that United may add BNE

I don't believe that what SimpleFlying "thinks" means much to anybody. They're not aviation analysts or industry experts with some inside line on things, they're not even proper journalists, they're just a bunch of part-time avgeeks and aviation enthusiasts and in this case they're just spit-balling like we can and do here, but arguably with even less insight than the a.netters. Plenty of us here have speculated that UA might add BNE as soon as this new partnership was announced. SF is really a content-scraping and barrel-scrapping blog, let me know when they do original 'reporting' and break real news.

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