AS is going round round on AUS-PSP. Must have worked out nicely last winter with all the new arrivals from California already familiar with that market. Nice to see AS quietly continuing to grow their Austin presence.

https://aeroroutes.com/eng/220721-asnov22auspsp

Schedule update 7/23/22:
It looks like LAX-FAT/GEG/RNO and SAN-SLC have all been dropped. No longer bookable after the first week of September. It sucks to see LAX-GEG go back to just a single DL E175. I'm surprised that route doesn't perform better.

LAX-GEG and SAN-SLC appear to return 12/15 to 1/8. Then again April onwards.

The others appear in the schedule April onwards. These appear to be season adjustments.

LAX-GEG might be related to the beginning of the Trex project which I think is schedule to start in August.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.seattl ... d/%3famp=1

It looks like they are losing one Q/175 parking spot for some time.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source= ... RsVrWL-sLb

I’m guessing that these are part of the aggressive removal of the Q400 and to a lesser extent the A320. EAT/YKM/ALW/YYJ/YLW are all showing a single frequency starting in September. As E175 and MAX aircraft are delivered across the winter they can start to reinstate these services.

SuperDash wrote:

I’m guessing that these are part of the aggressive removal of the Q400 and to a lesser extent the A320. EAT/YKM/ALW/YYJ/YLW are all showing a single frequency starting in September. As E175 and MAX aircraft are delivered across the winter they can start to reinstate these services.

As disappoint as it is, I'm hoping EAT, YKM ALW and YYJ is just a seasonal slow-down for off-peak times. I think YLW has always been 1X daily.

wedgetail737 wrote:

SuperDash wrote:

I’m guessing that these are part of the aggressive removal of the Q400 and to a lesser extent the A320. EAT/YKM/ALW/YYJ/YLW are all showing a single frequency starting in September. As E175 and MAX aircraft are delivered across the winter they can start to reinstate these services.

As disappoint as it is, I'm hoping EAT, YKM ALW and YYJ is just a seasonal slow-down for off-peak times. I think YLW has always been 1X daily.

YLW had been 3x daily in years past. I used to fly it annually for skiing in the 2007-2011 time frame. There was a morning flight, afternoon flight, and evening flight.

AS flew a couple of OME-YVR charters yesterday for cruise ship passengers.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ASA ... /PAOM/CYVR

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/ASA ... /PAOM/CYVR

Looks like AS is up to 3x mainline some days on SFO-AUS. Even flying a 321neo for one of the frequencies. Good to see them doing well.

BZE, LIR/SJO, and LIH/KOA are all still on my SFO wishlist... Domestically I would like to see them try RDU.

sfojvjets wrote:

Looks like AS is up to 3x mainline some days on SFO-AUS. Even flying a 321neo for one of the frequencies. Good to see them doing well.

BZE, LIR/SJO, and LIH/KOA are all still on my SFO wishlist... Domestically I would like to see them try RDU.

I believe they've tried SFO-RDU before (albeit, very briefly), shortly after the VX merger took place.

AC4500 wrote:

sfojvjets wrote:

Looks like AS is up to 3x mainline some days on SFO-AUS. Even flying a 321neo for one of the frequencies. Good to see them doing well.

BZE, LIR/SJO, and LIH/KOA are all still on my SFO wishlist... Domestically I would like to see them try RDU.

I believe they've tried SFO-RDU before (albeit, very briefly), shortly after the VX merger took place.

I flew Alaska from SFO to RDU in October 2018 on a still painted VX A320, so yes, they did indeed fly the route

BoeingGuy wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

SuperDash wrote:

I’m guessing that these are part of the aggressive removal of the Q400 and to a lesser extent the A320. EAT/YKM/ALW/YYJ/YLW are all showing a single frequency starting in September. As E175 and MAX aircraft are delivered across the winter they can start to reinstate these services.

As disappoint as it is, I'm hoping EAT, YKM ALW and YYJ is just a seasonal slow-down for off-peak times. I think YLW has always been 1X daily.

YLW had been 3x daily in years past. I used to fly it annually for skiing in the 2007-2011 time frame. There was a morning flight, afternoon flight, and evening flight.

Good to know...maybe the frequency will go up in the future.

A320 N845VA was removed from service and ferried from SFO to VCV for storage on 7/29.
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/N845VA

Has anyone noticed or received any sked changes from last night's OAG load? I've been looking around and so far haven't seen any.

We had a pretty good-sized load last Saturday night (7/23) that made (mostly) cuts from later this year as well as 2023 skeds, so hopefully they took a breather this weekend.

bb

SANFan wrote:

Has anyone noticed or received any sked changes from last night's OAG load? I've been looking around and so far haven't seen any.

We had a pretty good-sized load last Saturday night (7/23) that made (mostly) cuts from later this year as well as 2023 skeds, so hopefully they took a breather this weekend.

bb

The one that really surprised me is apparently AS has cut PAE-TUS. That fits right in PAE’s warm weather leisure markets and supposedly was doing well.

AS seems to give a lot of lip service about resuming a full schedule at PAE but seems like they continue to cut. LAX and SJC still haven’t come back. PDX was cut, although doing horrendous. Now TUS is cut.

BoeingGuy wrote:

SANFan wrote:

Has anyone noticed or received any sked changes from last night's OAG load? I've been looking around and so far haven't seen any.

We had a pretty good-sized load last Saturday night (7/23) that made (mostly) cuts from later this year as well as 2023 skeds, so hopefully they took a breather this weekend.

bb

The one that really surprised me is apparently AS has cut PAE-TUS. That fits right in PAE’s warm weather leisure markets and supposedly was doing well.

AS seems to give a lot of lip service about resuming a full schedule at PAE but seems like they continue to cut. LAX and SJC still haven’t come back. PDX was cut, although doing horrendous. Now TUS is cut.

I wonder if they need the 175's to cover some of the markets that the Q was in - like EAT, MWH, PUW, etc. Starting this winter mainline will be covering SEA-STS and SEA-SBA. Some other markets that had a mix of QX and AS are going to solely AS, like SEA-FAT and SEA-RNO. Also seeing more AS mainline on other markets that previously had a mix. All AUS flights are on mainline except for BOI and PSP. So all AUS-LAX/SAN/SFO/SJC/PDX/SEA are mainline. SFO-LAS is all mainline. I presume these changes are being made to cover the earlier retirement of the Q.

BoeingGuy wrote:

SANFan wrote:

Has anyone noticed or received any sked changes from last night's OAG load? I've been looking around and so far haven't seen any.

We had a pretty good-sized load last Saturday night (7/23) that made (mostly) cuts from later this year as well as 2023 skeds, so hopefully they took a breather this weekend.

bb

The one that really surprised me is apparently AS has cut PAE-TUS. That fits right in PAE’s warm weather leisure markets and supposedly was doing well.

AS seems to give a lot of lip service about resuming a full schedule at PAE but seems like they continue to cut. LAX and SJC still haven’t come back. PDX was cut, although doing horrendous. Now TUS is cut.

Unless AS as something else up their sleeve for the winter months that sacrificed the TUS service. Maybe more PHX, LAS or even PSP?

wedgetail737 wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

SANFan wrote:

Has anyone noticed or received any sked changes from last night's OAG load? I've been looking around and so far haven't seen any.

We had a pretty good-sized load last Saturday night (7/23) that made (mostly) cuts from later this year as well as 2023 skeds, so hopefully they took a breather this weekend.

bb

The one that really surprised me is apparently AS has cut PAE-TUS. That fits right in PAE’s warm weather leisure markets and supposedly was doing well.

AS seems to give a lot of lip service about resuming a full schedule at PAE but seems like they continue to cut. LAX and SJC still haven’t come back. PDX was cut, although doing horrendous. Now TUS is cut.

Unless AS as something else up their sleeve for the winter months that sacrificed the TUS service. Maybe more PHX, LAS or even PSP?

AS already does PAE-PSP seasonally.

ASFlyer wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

SANFan wrote:

Has anyone noticed or received any sked changes from last night's OAG load? I've been looking around and so far haven't seen any.

We had a pretty good-sized load last Saturday night (7/23) that made (mostly) cuts from later this year as well as 2023 skeds, so hopefully they took a breather this weekend.

bb

The one that really surprised me is apparently AS has cut PAE-TUS. That fits right in PAE’s warm weather leisure markets and supposedly was doing well.

AS seems to give a lot of lip service about resuming a full schedule at PAE but seems like they continue to cut. LAX and SJC still haven’t come back. PDX was cut, although doing horrendous. Now TUS is cut.

I wonder if they need the 175's to cover some of the markets that the Q was in - like EAT, MWH, PUW, etc. Starting this winter mainline will be covering SEA-STS and SEA-SBA. Some other markets that had a mix of QX and AS are going to solely AS, like SEA-FAT and SEA-RNO. Also seeing more AS mainline on other markets that previously had a mix. All AUS flights are on mainline except for BOI and PSP. So all AUS-LAX/SAN/SFO/SJC/PDX/SEA are mainline. SFO-LAS is all mainline. I presume these changes are being made to cover the earlier retirement of the Q.

That’s kind of back to the future. SEA-RNO was all mainline for years after it first started. At some point, AS instead started flying all Q400s. SEA-FAT being mainline is new though.

BoeingGuy wrote:

wedgetail737 wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

The one that really surprised me is apparently AS has cut PAE-TUS. That fits right in PAE’s warm weather leisure markets and supposedly was doing well.

AS seems to give a lot of lip service about resuming a full schedule at PAE but seems like they continue to cut. LAX and SJC still haven’t come back. PDX was cut, although doing horrendous. Now TUS is cut.

Unless AS as something else up their sleeve for the winter months that sacrificed the TUS service. Maybe more PHX, LAS or even PSP?

AS already does PAE-PSP seasonally.

Yes...that's true. I was thinking additional frequency like 2X daily PAE-PSP.

Speaking of PAE trims, I just noticed that SAN-PAE for the Sept (and beyond) skeds went from 9 weekly flights to 4. (Also, our SLC service went from 2 daily to none...)

My problem is it's hard (for me) to figure out whether such cuts are due to airport staffing issues, crew shortages, higher fuel prices, lack of traffic, or now I guess we can add aircraft availability - with the Buses and Qs now on the fast track out of AS's fleet -- to the list of possibilities. When the cuts are deep, and also awfully close in, there must be a pretty harsh (and sudden) reasons for the cuts.

How long this continues and when things might find balance is therefore very hard to figure out. I was hopeful that things would settle down by next summer but as I study the monthly revisions to the 2023 skeds, into April now, it looks pretty scary.... E.g., routes that were supposed to return in March, are now pushed to at least April.

Yikes!

bb

Not sure if this is the right thread, but does anyone have any insight as to how AS/AA decide which flights to codeshare on? I recall there was a DOJ ruling after the Virgin merger that restricted the specific routes they could codeshare on.

For example, I find it odd that AA has their code on Alaska's IAD-SFO service, but not their service from DCA. The IAD-SFO flights are the only flights they codeshare on from WAS.

Likewise, AS places their code on AA's SAN-CLT flights, but not flights from SEA or PDX.

Are hubs carved out of the codeshare to encourage AA and AS to compete against each other in their hub markets?

SANFan wrote:

Speaking of PAE trims, I just noticed that SAN-PAE for the Sept (and beyond) skeds went from 9 weekly flights to 4. (Also, our SLC service went from 2 daily to none...)

My problem is it's hard (for me) to figure out whether such cuts are due to airport staffing issues, crew shortages, higher fuel prices, lack of traffic, or now I guess we can add aircraft availability - with the Buses and Qs now on the fast track out of AS's fleet -- to the list of possibilities. When the cuts are deep, and also awfully close in, there must be a pretty harsh (and sudden) reasons for the cuts.

How long this continues and when things might find balance is therefore very hard to figure out. I was hopeful that things would settle down by next summer but as I study the monthly revisions to the 2023 skeds, into April now, it looks pretty scary.... E.g., routes that were supposed to return in March, are now pushed to at least April.

Yikes!

bb

I think it's the combination of everything you mentioned. Although AS will be ridding themselves of Airbus and Q400's, I have yet to see AS actually removing airplanes on time. Also, there's nothing that says the schedules loaded could change over time.

USAirALB wrote:

Not sure if this is the right thread, but does anyone have any insight as to how AS/AA decide which flights to codeshare on? I recall there was a DOJ ruling after the Virgin merger that restricted the specific routes they could codeshare on.

For example, I find it odd that AA has their code on Alaska's IAD-SFO service, but not their service from DCA. The IAD-SFO flights are the only flights they codeshare on from WAS.

Likewise, AS places their code on AA's SAN-CLT flights, but not flights from SEA or PDX.

Are hubs carved out of the codeshare to encourage AA and AS to compete against each other in their hub markets?

Hub flights are carved out and not permitted.

SANFan wrote:

Speaking of PAE trims, I just noticed that SAN-PAE for the Sept (and beyond) skeds went from 9 weekly flights to 4. (Also, our SLC service went from 2 daily to none...)

My problem is it's hard (for me) to figure out whether such cuts are due to airport staffing issues, crew shortages, higher fuel prices, lack of traffic, or now I guess we can add aircraft availability - with the Buses and Qs now on the fast track out of AS's fleet -- to the list of possibilities. When the cuts are deep, and also awfully close in, there must be a pretty harsh (and sudden) reasons for the cuts.

How long this continues and when things might find balance is therefore very hard to figure out. I was hopeful that things would settle down by next summer but as I study the monthly revisions to the 2023 skeds, into April now, it looks pretty scary.... E.g., routes that were supposed to return in March, are now pushed to at least April.

Yikes!

bb

SLC-SAN isn’t axed, its gone on an on and off schedule: September 7 – December 14, January 9 – February 15 and March 16 – April 17 Then its back for the summer on a consistent schedule

Looks like AS is adding its first ever regularly scheduled mainline on SBP-SEA beginning 11/30. This is after AA’s mainline that starts 10/7.

ericm2031 wrote:

Looks like AS is adding its first ever regularly scheduled mainline on SBP-SEA beginning 11/30. This is after AA’s mainline that starts 10/7.

AA A319s and AS 737s at SBP?! It's probably more to do with the attrition at regionals than anything else but I'm impressed. That's some good OW connectivity right there and it's a winning strategy for both carriers. Last spring I went up to the fence at SBP while driving past the airport and watched an AA/Mesa CRJ 900 land. My ears were ringing afterwards. You can get very very close to the runway at SBP and the pure noise was incredible so the 319s/737s will be fun to watch. However Alaska still has ridiculously few CA destinations from their hubs that are actually located in CA. No wonder we haven't heard anything about Flight Pass... it must have been a flop. The fact is that while there is a good amount of schedule depth on intra-CA flying, network breadth is sorely lacking. Still waiting for SFO-BUR/ONT/SBA/SBP/ACV etc. Right across the state border, Reno would be a nice add as well. This may also provide feed for Alaska's Hawaii flights and hopefully allows them to restore Lihue and Kona from SFO.

ericm2031 wrote:

Looks like AS is adding its first ever regularly scheduled mainline on SBP-SEA beginning 11/30. This is after AA’s mainline that starts 10/7.

It looks like AS is reinstating 737's on the SEA-SBA route and adding (for Alaska's first time) 737's on the SEA-STS route.

sfojvjets wrote:

ericm2031 wrote:

Looks like AS is adding its first ever regularly scheduled mainline on SBP-SEA beginning 11/30. This is after AA’s mainline that starts 10/7.

AA A319s and AS 737s at SBP?! It's probably more to do with the attrition at regionals than anything else but I'm impressed. That's some good OW connectivity right there and it's a winning strategy for both carriers. Last spring I went up to the fence at SBP while driving past the airport and watched an AA/Mesa CRJ 900 land. My ears were ringing afterwards. You can get very very close to the runway at SBP and the pure noise was incredible so the 319s/737s will be fun to watch. However Alaska still has ridiculously few CA destinations from their hubs that are actually located in CA. No wonder we haven't heard anything about Flight Pass... it must have been a flop. The fact is that while there is a good amount of schedule depth on intra-CA flying, network breadth is sorely lacking. Still waiting for SFO-BUR/ONT/SBA/SBP/ACV etc. Right across the state border, Reno would be a nice add as well. This may also provide feed for Alaska's Hawaii flights and hopefully allows them to restore Lihue and Kona from SFO.

I would love to see AS expand to more "secondary" destinations in CA like ACV, BFL or even SMX...maybe from both SEA and SAN. But I don't think that will happen anytime soonj.

sfojvjets wrote:

However Alaska still has ridiculously few CA destinations from their hubs that are actually located in CA. No wonder we haven't heard anything about Flight Pass... it must have been a flop.

Flight Pass is still available for sale https://flightpass.alaskaair.com/asa/subscriptions

I have no clue how well it is or isn’t doing…

USAirKid wrote:

sfojvjets wrote:

However Alaska still has ridiculously few CA destinations from their hubs that are actually located in CA. No wonder we haven't heard anything about Flight Pass... it must have been a flop.

Flight Pass is still available for sale https://flightpass.alaskaair.com/asa/subscriptions

I have no clue how well it is or isn’t doing…

Yeah that is what my point is... I am thinking we would have heard something substantive in an earnings call or interview or whatever if Flight Pass (thus far) has been successful. We haven't (as far as I can remember) heard a peep since they launched it. I will say though that as I was scrolling down the page, it prompted me to take a survey (click the Feedback tab on the right side of the page) so maybe they are actively looking into improving it. Who knows.

ASFlyer wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

SANFan wrote:

Has anyone noticed or received any sked changes from last night's OAG load? I've been looking around and so far haven't seen any.

We had a pretty good-sized load last Saturday night (7/23) that made (mostly) cuts from later this year as well as 2023 skeds, so hopefully they took a breather this weekend.

bb

The one that really surprised me is apparently AS has cut PAE-TUS. That fits right in PAE’s warm weather leisure markets and supposedly was doing well.

AS seems to give a lot of lip service about resuming a full schedule at PAE but seems like they continue to cut. LAX and SJC still haven’t come back. PDX was cut, although doing horrendous. Now TUS is cut.

I wonder if they need the 175's to cover some of the markets that the Q was in - like EAT, MWH, PUW, etc. Starting this winter mainline will be covering SEA-STS and SEA-SBA. Some other markets that had a mix of QX and AS are going to solely AS, like SEA-FAT and SEA-RNO. Also seeing more AS mainline on other markets that previously had a mix. All AUS flights are on mainline except for BOI and PSP. So all AUS-LAX/SAN/SFO/SJC/PDX/SEA are mainline. SFO-LAS is all mainline. I presume these changes are being made to cover the earlier retirement of the Q.

I just did a quick look and I do not see any Q400s in the schedule past January 8. PDX-TUS is going to mainline. Couple that with PAE-TUS, that essentially frees up an airplane. I see mainline on PDX-BOI/GEG, SEA-RDM amongst the others mentioned in this thread

SANFan wrote:

My problem is it's hard (for me) to figure out whether such cuts are due to airport staffing issues, crew shortages, higher fuel prices, lack of traffic, or now I guess we can add aircraft availability - with the Buses and Qs now on the fast track out of AS's fleet -- to the list of possibilities. When the cuts are deep, and also awfully close in, there must be a pretty harsh (and sudden) reasons for the cuts.

I'm not so sure there's a sudden and harsh reason. It could be as simple as the execs reviewed the new plan and instructed Scheduling to Push The Button.

In late May, Delta announced summer schedule reductions to be implemented after the 4th of July holiday. Op performance was atrocious through June and the holiday weekend, then the second week of July was smooth sailing with cancellations cut by 90%.

Smart carriers know what they can staff across what types. Some are just too greedy to forego the revenue and let op performance go into the toilet.

AS pairs the problem with the accelerated Airbus and Q phaseouts. They have a period of complexity in scheduling on the way to achieving 737/E simplicity.

BoeingGuy wrote:

SEA-FAT being mainline is new though.

Not new, been going on for about a year.

I have to think there will be a morning departure out of FAT and evening departure out of SEA...if nothing else, to get the plane into maintenance at FAT. One flight per day is going to be both terrible for connections and a drop off on capacity from normal.

ASFlyer wrote:

I wonder if they need the 175's to cover some of the markets that the Q was in - like EAT, MWH, PUW, etc. Starting this winter mainline will be covering SEA-STS and SEA-SBA. Some other markets that had a mix of QX and AS are going to solely AS, like SEA-FAT and SEA-RNO. Also seeing more AS mainline on other markets that previously had a mix. All AUS flights are on mainline except for BOI and PSP. So all AUS-LAX/SAN/SFO/SJC/PDX/SEA are mainline. SFO-LAS is all mainline. I presume these changes are being made to cover the earlier retirement of the Q.

I got all excited when I started seeing SAN-AUS op'ing with nothing but 739s (inc MAXs!) on all 3 daily r/t! I thought things must be going well in that market, and was happy to see AAG making a real effort to compete with WN's 4 daily r/t.

AS was actually running 'Buses and EMJs in the market, along with some Boeings, so what you say makes sense. Gotta make sure the disappearing Qs routes are covered.

Also, as of now, I'm seeing a 739 flying the SAN-JAC route in early 2023! I'll be curious to see where else mainline might suddenly appear.

bb

It appears BOI will not have any commercial turboprop service as of 1/9/23.

Actually appears all the Q400s are done after that. Could this be correct? Did I miss them moving this up even closer in?

MAX 9 #29 N941AK has delivered. It has flown to OAK for post delivery work.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N94 ... /KBFI/KOAK

SuperDash wrote:

MAX 9 #29 N941AK has delivered. It has flown to OAK for post delivery work.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N94 ... /KBFI/KOAK

Does AS still have a hanger in OAK? It was a shame when WN basically ran them out.

Also N979AK delivered today.

hiflyeras wrote:

SuperDash wrote:

MAX 9 #29 N941AK has delivered. It has flown to OAK for post delivery work.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N94 ... /KBFI/KOAK

Does AS still have a hanger in OAK? It was a shame when WN basically ran them out.

I don’t believe they do. If memory serves, it was shut up around the time that the -80s retired, but I could be wrong about that.

ATSS wrote:

Also N979AK delivered today.

Great catch. MAX 9 #30 has delivered. It has flown PAE-OAK for post delivery work. Interestingly, this is the “Eco-Demonstator” that Boeing used. The “Eco” decals have been removed and it is in standard livery. That assumes the pictures on another website are correct.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/N97 ... /KPAE/KOAK

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... k#2ce3b1a4

USAirKid wrote:

iflykpdx wrote:

Given the retirement of the A319s and ignoring the negligible amount of 73Gs, does AS have a problem with the relatively large gap between the QX/OO fleet and mainline?

If so, any guesses on what they do to remediate it?

No other mainline US carrier (with a <100 seat aircraft type) seems to have this issue, so it would seem to put AS at a competitive disadvantage.

I can see them shrugging their shoulders about it. Its probably one of those things where the marginal costs of a 738 vs a 73G aren't huge, but it does open up more fleet simplification and allowing them to keep the ability to upsell. Since the A319 and 73G are sort of shrinks, they also don't perform as well.

I'm not sure I see them getting a 100 seater explicitly to fill the gap, such as a E190 or CS100. They'd have to put it at mainline AS vs QX for pilot scope reasons, and that probably makes it a bit too expensive to operate.

Alaska doesn't have a scope in their pilot's contract as both are wholly owned and operated by AK.

strfyr51 wrote:

USAirKid wrote:

iflykpdx wrote:

Given the retirement of the A319s and ignoring the negligible amount of 73Gs, does AS have a problem with the relatively large gap between the QX/OO fleet and mainline?

If so, any guesses on what they do to remediate it?

No other mainline US carrier (with a <100 seat aircraft type) seems to have this issue, so it would seem to put AS at a competitive disadvantage.

I can see them shrugging their shoulders about it. Its probably one of those things where the marginal costs of a 738 vs a 73G aren't huge, but it does open up more fleet simplification and allowing them to keep the ability to upsell. Since the A319 and 73G are sort of shrinks, they also don't perform as well.

I'm not sure I see them getting a 100 seater explicitly to fill the gap, such as a E190 or CS100. They'd have to put it at mainline AS vs QX for pilot scope reasons, and that probably makes it a bit too expensive to operate.

Alaska doesn't have a scope in their pilot's contract as both are wholly owned and operated by AK.

Ownership does not automatically remove scope, there’s plenty of wholly owned regionals that have scope clauses. Not that it matters much though, a scope clause is almost certainly coming with this next pilot contract

And just to be nitpicky, QX still runs it’s own operation, they just have to play by AS’ rules now

SANFan wrote:

Also, as of now, I'm seeing a 739 flying the SAN-JAC route in early 2023! I'll be curious to see where else mainline might suddenly appear.

Hey Bob! Haven't seen ya on in awhile. I'm pretty sure the -900 is just a generic "it's gonna be a 737" placeholder here. At 6500' elevation and only a 6300' runway, I don't think the performance pig that is a -900NG can make it off that runway to SEA without restrictions (UA uses 319/73G to JAC, save for one 320 to DEN and some E75, DL 319 and AA 319/CR7). I'd bet on a -700/800. Unsure about the longer MAX's runway performance - can someone more enlightened on the -9's performance shed some light here?

flyfresno wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

SEA-FAT being mainline is new though.

Not new, been going on for about a year.

I have to think there will be a morning departure out of FAT and evening departure out of SEA...if nothing else, to get the plane into maintenance at FAT. One flight per day is going to be both terrible for connections and a drop off on capacity from normal.

They are going 2X mainline on FAT-SEA and there's also a 7am on a 739 being added in December. PDX and SAN go into maintenance, with LAX off until April (don't hold your breath).

whatusaid wrote:

flyfresno wrote:

BoeingGuy wrote:

SEA-FAT being mainline is new though.

Not new, been going on for about a year.

I have to think there will be a morning departure out of FAT and evening departure out of SEA...if nothing else, to get the plane into maintenance at FAT. One flight per day is going to be both terrible for connections and a drop off on capacity from normal.

They are going 2X mainline on FAT-SEA and there's also a 7am on a 739 being added in December. PDX and SAN go into maintenance, with LAX off until April (don't hold your breath).

I wonder why FAT is seeing so many deep cuts. It’s a SkyWest base, and we won’t even see a single AS E175 until April.

I was planning on using the FAT-SAN flight probably 6-8 times through that timespan, this truly sucks because I have to connect on a different airline now instead of using my miles. No way I’m flying all the way up to SEA and back down to FAT!

FlyLEN2019 wrote:

I was planning on using the FAT-SAN flight probably 6-8 times through that timespan, this truly sucks because I have to connect on a different airline now instead of using my miles. No way I’m flying all the way up to SEA and back down to FAT!

Well that’s a good way to earn more miles. (AS award tickets earn miles when flown..)

But yeah it is a waste of time.

panam330 wrote:

SANFan wrote:

Also, as of now, I'm seeing a 739 flying the SAN-JAC route in early 2023! I'll be curious to see where else mainline might suddenly appear.

Hey Bob! Haven't seen ya on in awhile. I'm pretty sure the -900 is just a generic "it's gonna be a 737" placeholder here. At 6500' elevation and only a 6300' runway, I don't think the performance pig that is a -900NG can make it off that runway to SEA without restrictions (UA uses 319/73G to JAC, save for one 320 to DEN and some E75, DL 319 and AA 319/CR7). I'd bet on a -700/800. Unsure about the longer MAX's runway performance - can someone more enlightened on the -9's performance shed some light here?

Hi Will! Nice to talk to you. i'm definitely around!

I should have said "mainline" instead of "739" flying SAN-JAC; it doesn't matter to me what flavor of Boeing it is, I'm just amazed to see anything larger than an EMJ. It appears the Boeing on the route is only Jan and Feb for right now so it's prolly just a temp replacement for the EMJ while they'll be in short supply. (And the freq seems to remain the same, 3x weekly, whether it's a Boeing or an EMJ.)

FlyLEN2019 wrote:

whatusaid wrote:

They are going 2X mainline on FAT-SEA and there's also a 7am on a 739 being added in December. PDX and SAN go into maintenance, with LAX off until April (don't hold your breath).

I wonder why FAT is seeing so many deep cuts. It’s a SkyWest base, and we won’t even see a single AS E175 until April.

I was planning on using the FAT-SAN flight probably 6-8 times through that timespan, this truly sucks because I have to connect on a different airline now instead of using my miles. No way I’m flying all the way up to SEA and back down to FAT!

I'm confused.

There are still a minimum of 2 daily AS/OO r/t on all future schedules FAT-SAN. What do you mean you can't fly FAT-SAN the 6-8 times thru April? Please clarify.

bb

USAirKid wrote:

iflykpdx wrote:

Given the retirement of the A319s and ignoring the negligible amount of 73Gs, does AS have a problem with the relatively large gap between the QX/OO fleet and mainline?

If so, any guesses on what they do to remediate it?

No other mainline US carrier (with a <100 seat aircraft type) seems to have this issue, so it would seem to put AS at a competitive disadvantage.

I can see them shrugging their shoulders about it. Its probably one of those things where the marginal costs of a 738 vs a 73G aren't huge, but it does open up more fleet simplification and allowing them to keep the ability to upsell. Since the A319 and 73G are sort of shrinks, they also don't perform as well.

I'm not sure I see them getting a 100 seater explicitly to fill the gap, such as a E190 or CS100. They'd have to put it at mainline AS vs QX for pilot scope reasons, and that probably makes it a bit too expensive to operate.

The 'Right plane for the mission' and 'Fly all sorts of junk to keep Capex low' ideas of the 90s and 00s have really fallen out of favor, with a new focus on fleet simplicity and new more fuel efficient and larger/lower CASM aircraft (even at Delta!).

AS really doesn't seem to be disadvantaged going forward with 737s and Es exclusively. Looking at the last few years pre-Covid, DL was the only carrier among U.S. majors with significant fleet complexity AND high earnings expressed as Net Income/Revenues. UA was kind of middling. AA was frankly poor. AS was good but B6 was middling. WN (1 type!) was the leader, and ULCCs like NK and G4 did well on an ROI basis with just one or two types.

More types mean more parts, more scheduling complexity, and very importantly, higher pilot costs as labor pools get fragmented. It should be clear that pilots (averaged across both regional and mainline) aren't going to be cheap anymore. Observe that both DL and AA did big fleet fleet write-downs during Covid to eliminate types and pilot pools during Covid.

IMHO AS will be better off operating 7M8s on a few routes with 60% load factors than by acquiring a few dozen E2-190s or A220-300s. They might be doing the math on 7M7s but I really don't see the value. AS has been pursuing upgauging for a decade, with a heavy mix of -900ERs starting in 2012.