Delta Network Thread - 2022

PSU.DTW.SCE · Mon Apr 04, 2022 12:45 am

Midwestindy wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
DL applying some pressure:

MCI/MKE/SAT-JFK will be added
BNA-LGA gets A223 service
Also not new but DL will be adding/or has already added the A220s to competitive BOS routes, BNA/CVG/DFW/iND/MCI/MSY/ORD/RDU-BOS

I suppose 'applying some pressure' is one way to interpret this. Another way is just DL executing on:

1. Rebuilding destinations and frequencies as business travel is expected to rebound;

and

2. Continuing its long-announced strategy of upgauging.

So much a.net network discussion is just presented as punch/counterpunch.

Normally I would agree that this isn't punch/counterpunch, but:

a) LFs are terrible on many of these routes, but they are increasing capacity over 2019 levels?

b) They are adding MCI/MKE/SAT-JFK right after B6 launches them.....

I will also add to the conversation that recently DL indicated to its pilots that new /incremental A220 deliveries and capacity are going to be flown and operated primarily from the NYC A220 base and increase East Coast flying, which means that a lot of that BOS A220 flying is going to be covered by the NYC A220 pilot base/category.

Some of that upgauging is not just for competitive / product reasons, its also because they need to upgauge to replace DCI flying. Upgauging some of the longer CR9/E75 has a cascading effect downward of freeing up capacity / block hours to use to cover DCI flying elsewhere. DCI can't staff/fly the capacity they were originally forecasted to fly for 2022 so there is flying going over to DL mainline to cover the shortfall.

ScroogeMcDuck · Mon Apr 04, 2022 3:13 am

evank516 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

I suppose 'applying some pressure' is one way to interpret this. Another way is just DL executing on:

1. Rebuilding destinations and frequencies as business travel is expected to rebound;

and

2. Continuing its long-announced strategy of upgauging.

So much a.net network discussion is just presented as punch/counterpunch.

Normally I would agree that this isn't punch/counterpunch, but:

a) LFs are terrible on many of these routes, but they are increasing capacity over 2019 levels?

b) They are adding MCI/MKE/SAT-JFK right after B6 launches them.....

IMO, DL didn't need to add MCI/MKE-JFK since they're already competing well from LGA on both of these. I think SAT needs to be out of JFK due to the perimeter rules.

But DL already operates 4-5 daily flights to MCI from LGA and 3 to MKE. They didn't really NEED to add these routes from JFK if they want to compete. If they wanted to take a jab at B6 the better strategy would have been to upgauge their MCI and MKE flights from LGA to larger aircraft. LGA-MCI/MKE have been around for years and are well established. I know more about the MCI flights than MKE, but DL has been on that route longer than any other competitor in the NYC-MCI market right now with the least amount of interruption during the worst times of the pandemic. At many times, they were the sole operator.

They don't NEED to add JFK-MCI/MKE, they can just offer a similar product with more than one daily flight from LGA and they'll do just fine.

I don't think DL is adding these routes to be competitive with AA/B6, but rather to offer more connections to DL's transatlantic network from JFK. IIRC, DL has said in the past that LGA service is for NYC O&D, while JFK is served for international and long haul.

evank516 · Mon Apr 04, 2022 4:56 am

ScroogeMcDuck wrote:
evank516 wrote:
Midwestindy wrote:

Normally I would agree that this isn't punch/counterpunch, but:

a) LFs are terrible on many of these routes, but they are increasing capacity over 2019 levels?

b) They are adding MCI/MKE/SAT-JFK right after B6 launches them.....

IMO, DL didn't need to add MCI/MKE-JFK since they're already competing well from LGA on both of these. I think SAT needs to be out of JFK due to the perimeter rules.

But DL already operates 4-5 daily flights to MCI from LGA and 3 to MKE. They didn't really NEED to add these routes from JFK if they want to compete. If they wanted to take a jab at B6 the better strategy would have been to upgauge their MCI and MKE flights from LGA to larger aircraft. LGA-MCI/MKE have been around for years and are well established. I know more about the MCI flights than MKE, but DL has been on that route longer than any other competitor in the NYC-MCI market right now with the least amount of interruption during the worst times of the pandemic. At many times, they were the sole operator.

They don't NEED to add JFK-MCI/MKE, they can just offer a similar product with more than one daily flight from LGA and they'll do just fine.

I don't think DL is adding these routes to be competitive with AA/B6, but rather to offer more connections to DL's transatlantic network from JFK. IIRC, DL has said in the past that LGA service is for NYC O&D, while JFK is served for international and long haul.

Looking at MCI-JFK, it's not exactly timed for international connections. It arrives at 1315. You don't need that much time to connect. The return leg departs JFK at 1730 which works for inbound connections, but if you think about it you can get to many places from DTW or MSP as well. They have about 3 daily flights to each of those. Not to mention going through ATL too.

Delta28L · Mon Apr 04, 2022 11:35 am

evank516 wrote:
ScroogeMcDuck wrote:
evank516 wrote:

IMO, DL didn't need to add MCI/MKE-JFK since they're already competing well from LGA on both of these. I think SAT needs to be out of JFK due to the perimeter rules.

But DL already operates 4-5 daily flights to MCI from LGA and 3 to MKE. They didn't really NEED to add these routes from JFK if they want to compete. If they wanted to take a jab at B6 the better strategy would have been to upgauge their MCI and MKE flights from LGA to larger aircraft. LGA-MCI/MKE have been around for years and are well established. I know more about the MCI flights than MKE, but DL has been on that route longer than any other competitor in the NYC-MCI market right now with the least amount of interruption during the worst times of the pandemic. At many times, they were the sole operator.

They don't NEED to add JFK-MCI/MKE, they can just offer a similar product with more than one daily flight from LGA and they'll do just fine.

I don't think DL is adding these routes to be competitive with AA/B6, but rather to offer more connections to DL's transatlantic network from JFK. IIRC, DL has said in the past that LGA service is for NYC O&D, while JFK is served for international and long haul.

Looking at MCI-JFK, it's not exactly timed for international connections. It arrives at 1315. You don't need that much time to connect. The return leg departs JFK at 1730 which works for inbound connections, but if you think about it you can get to many places from DTW or MSP as well. They have about 3 daily flights to each of those. Not to mention going through ATL too.

MSP DTW ATL doesn’t have the European/African/Middle East connections that JFK has.

tinpusher007 · Mon Apr 04, 2022 12:21 pm

evank516 wrote:
ScroogeMcDuck wrote:
evank516 wrote:

IMO, DL didn't need to add MCI/MKE-JFK since they're already competing well from LGA on both of these. I think SAT needs to be out of JFK due to the perimeter rules.

But DL already operates 4-5 daily flights to MCI from LGA and 3 to MKE. They didn't really NEED to add these routes from JFK if they want to compete. If they wanted to take a jab at B6 the better strategy would have been to upgauge their MCI and MKE flights from LGA to larger aircraft. LGA-MCI/MKE have been around for years and are well established. I know more about the MCI flights than MKE, but DL has been on that route longer than any other competitor in the NYC-MCI market right now with the least amount of interruption during the worst times of the pandemic. At many times, they were the sole operator.

They don't NEED to add JFK-MCI/MKE, they can just offer a similar product with more than one daily flight from LGA and they'll do just fine.

I don't think DL is adding these routes to be competitive with AA/B6, but rather to offer more connections to DL's transatlantic network from JFK. IIRC, DL has said in the past that LGA service is for NYC O&D, while JFK is served for international and long haul.

Looking at MCI-JFK, it's not exactly timed for international connections. It arrives at 1315. You don't need that much time to connect. The return leg departs JFK at 1730 which works for inbound connections, but if you think about it you can get to many places from DTW or MSP as well. They have about 3 daily flights to each of those. Not to mention going through ATL too.

You definitely could use that much time for connections to Europe in the summer when the wx rolls in and we have irops everyday.

kavok · Mon Apr 04, 2022 2:04 pm

It’s also worth pointing out the obvious that places like MCI and MKE don’t have TATL flights of their own, which arguably increases the value of having a JFK connection further.

Even with a long layover in JFK, one connection is still better than two (ie MCI-DTW/MSP-AMS/CDG-XXX), as there are many secondary European destinations only served by JFK on the DL network. The other important aspect with DL is that while maybe not desirable for booking, knowing the three stop DTW/MSP-AMS/CDG route also exists provides a peace-of-mind IRROPS option if necessary.

If MCI were to ever get a AMS/CDG flight, then the value of the JFK flight goes away, as most NYC traffic can be better served by LGA.

panamair · Mon Apr 04, 2022 3:10 pm

Delta to increase LAX-SYD to 10x weekly starting Dec 16 2022:

https://news.delta.com/delta-increases- ... p-a350-900

Assume the increase is seasonal only (for the Australia summer peak)...

MIflyer12 · Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:02 pm

Interesting. Has DL ever flown LAX-SYD more than daily? (Not interested in the VA services.)

A350s gotta go somewhere, and Europe in winter is pushing on a rope wrt demand.

tjerome · Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:05 pm

dcajet wrote:
During the months of April & May, Delta has reduced frequency and downgauged equipment on DL101/110 ATL-EZE-ATL. It will be operated 5x week instead of daily, with 763ER instead of the 764. It looks like daily service will be resumed in June.

That's surprising. They have been doing pretty good with passenger bookings and cargo recently. Usually payload optimized every day.

panamair wrote:
Delta to increase LAX-SYD to 10x weekly starting Dec 16 2022:

https://news.delta.com/delta-increases- ... p-a350-900

Assume the increase is seasonal only (for the Australia summer peak)...

Surprised they're doing it but I don't like how the second departure going to SYD is only an hour later. I've never done research on it but I'd like to think a daytime departure would work to SYD - would get there in the evening and you're only going ahead one day. It works going to Asia.

jbs2886 · Mon Apr 04, 2022 5:09 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Interesting. Has DL ever flown LAX-SYD more than daily? (Not interested in the VA services.)

A350s gotta go somewhere, and Europe in winter is pushing on a rope wrt demand.

I don't believe so. I thought we would see an additional Australian city before more than daily LAX-SYD, but glad to see an increase nonetheless.

I will add this is funny in that so many people were convinced DL would drop LAX-SYD when the Virgin Australia deal ended.

x1234 · Mon Apr 04, 2022 8:54 pm

Remember there is tremendous cargo demand especially south bound on LAX-SYD. LAX-SYD is like JFK-LHR due to colonial ties. Also due to COVID lots of multinationals are relocating APAC/Oceania HQ from HKG/ICN/NRT/TPE to SYD/SIN due to strict quarantine requirements. Singapore and Australia only require proof of vaccination and a negative COVID test. Also in SIN/SYD there’s less of a language barrier with English being the lingua franca.

LAX772LR · Mon Apr 04, 2022 9:42 pm

Well, we're starting to see their strategy post Virgin Australia relationship. Begins December 16th.

10xWK, all A359, with Wed/Fri/Sun receiving the extra frequencies, with southbounds (DL043) departing about an hour later than the first frequency, and northbounds (DL042) departing 3hrs after the first.

https://news.delta.com/delta-increases- ... p-a350-900

LAX772LR · Mon Apr 04, 2022 9:46 pm

Wondering if we'll see a 4xWk MEL on DL metal, as well.

Amwest2United · Mon Apr 04, 2022 10:00 pm

I guess the first flight will be flying a bit slower A359, as the 2nd flight is 15 mins faster. Ha!

LAX772LR · Mon Apr 04, 2022 10:10 pm

Amwest2United wrote:
I guess the first flight will be flying a bit slower A359, as the 2nd flight is 15 mins faster. Ha!

My guess was that the first flight will have to vector in line with plenty of other morning arrivals, whereas the latter flight will have less longhaul company and thus take the most direct route into SYD.

MIflyer12 · Mon Apr 04, 2022 10:14 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Wondering if we'll see a 4xWk MEL on DL metal, as well.

Please let it be BNE.

A350 or 330neo.

jbs2886 · Mon Apr 04, 2022 10:47 pm

x1234 wrote:
LAX-SYD is like JFK-LHR due to colonial ties

I get what you are getting at, but LAX-SYD is nothing like JFK-LHR. 5ish daily, one A380, pre-Covid. Versus 7x daily DL/VS JFK-LHR alone, not to mention AA/BA with 77Ws and A380s.

rjbesikof · Mon Apr 04, 2022 11:33 pm

Good to see DL remaining committed to Australia in spite of losing Virgin Australia. I would have preferred an evening departure out of SYD to allow people to connect to the nighttime DL LAX flights without a long layover. Then again, no other U.S. carrier can boast that they fly more than 1x daily LAX-SYD.

foxecho · Mon Apr 04, 2022 11:45 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Wondering if we'll see a 4xWk MEL on DL metal, as well.

Please let it be BNE. A350 or 330neo.

oh GOD yes! Ive been waiting for DL to start flying its own metal into BNE for years...best friend is on the Gold Coast (OOL)

Andrew

SCFlyer · Tue Apr 05, 2022 12:14 am

jbs2886 wrote:
x1234 wrote:
LAX-SYD is like JFK-LHR due to colonial ties

I get what you are getting at, but LAX-SYD is nothing like JFK-LHR. 5ish daily, one A380, pre-Covid. Versus 7x daily DL/VS JFK-LHR alone, not to mention AA/BA with 77Ws and A380s.

Before COVID, DL only offered x2 daily LAX-SYD as part of the old DL/VA JV (1 daily from each). With the termination of the VA partnership, and the CapEx required to expand into MEL or BNE (for less than daily frequencies per week), it probably makes more sense for DL to expand their SYD frequencies.

ContinentalEWR · Tue Apr 05, 2022 12:24 am

It's during peak season, but also a bit of a head scratcher. The existing flight hasn't been going out full, though presumably by the time the additional frequencies roll out the demand will be there. It also means 4 frames are tied up on certain days and a strong signal DL's TPAC network, just like the rest of the US3, is struggling big time. This sounds more like trying to find a place to fly an A350 rather than tapping into something sustainable, but that's what the pandemic has done to long haul international service and that's unlikely to change for the time being. With no feed on the SYD end, it will be interesting to see if this lasts beyond March 2023.

rjbesikof · Tue Apr 05, 2022 12:44 am

During a non-COVID U.S. winter (Australian summer), how does DL do on LAX-SYD?

RyanairGuru · Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:36 am

As a seasonal increase in capacity this seems like a good place to ‘park’ an aircraft during the winter months.

What will be interesting is if down the line, maybe another year or so, they consider MEL/BNE/AKL. Those would likely be year round routes, probably less than daily during northern summer, and therefore more of a long term strategy than a seasonal capacity increase on an existing route.

RyanairGuru · Tue Apr 05, 2022 1:38 am

rjbesikof wrote:
During a non-COVID U.S. winter (Australian summer), how does DL do on LAX-SYD?

Loads were decent, and without knowing for sure I’d say yields were solid but not spectacular. As Australia high season is low season to Europe, it’s a fairly good place to add excess capacity in winter. The known unknown is what impact the Virgin Australia JBA had on pre-Covid numbers compared to now.

dcajet · Tue Apr 05, 2022 2:08 am

tjerome wrote:
dcajet wrote:
During the months of April & May, Delta has reduced frequency and downgauged equipment on DL101/110 ATL-EZE-ATL. It will be operated 5x week instead of daily, with 763ER instead of the 764. It looks like daily service will be resumed in June.

That's surprising. They have been doing pretty good with passenger bookings and cargo recently. Usually payload optimized every day.

April & May are traditionally low season months in Argentina, the summer is over and leisure travel pretty much subsides until winter break in July. With business travel still to recover, Delta's move makes some sense, although DL is now at a competitive disadvantage with archrivals AA and UA on the Argentina - US market.

sea13 · Tue Apr 05, 2022 2:34 am

Curious as to what Delta will do once the next phase of construction at SLC is done which will give 20+ more gates to DL. What are are peoples thoughts of what expansion could look like at SLC. Nonstop to ICN? More flights on the A220 to places such as GRR, TYS, RIC, etc.?

phatfarmlines · Tue Apr 05, 2022 2:42 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Wondering if we'll see a 4xWk MEL on DL metal, as well.

Please let it be BNE. A350 or 330neo.

foxecho wrote:
oh GOD yes! Ive been waiting for DL to start flying its own metal into BNE for years...best friend is on the Gold Coast (OOL)

I'm wondering if BNE will see a boon in service as the host of the 2032 Summer Games. Not now, but in approx. 10 years time.

hooforce · Tue Apr 05, 2022 2:48 am

I’d like to see a SLC-RIC route! That would be fantastic! Hope it happens.

DLASFlyer · Tue Apr 05, 2022 2:48 am

SLC is such a curious case study. Western market with explosive population growth. Large but crumbling at-risk OO operation branded as Delta. Some very successful markets and many failed experiments. Doubling from 46 gates to 92 in the next 5 years. Top tourism destination. Great geography for connections. Business friendly.

I don't think anyone knows what will happen even if they think they do.

amcnd · Tue Apr 05, 2022 2:53 am

Hope they get rid of the hard stands. Thats about 13 gates….

PA815 · Tue Apr 05, 2022 3:23 am

I’m surprised SYD isn’t being kept at daily with the three extra frequencies being used to MEL or BNE.

PA815 · Tue Apr 05, 2022 3:25 am

rjbesikof wrote:
No other U.S. carrier can boast that they fly more than 1x daily LAX-SYD.

True, though UA will have three frequencies to SYD, just from a more diversified set of hubs.

sea13 · Tue Apr 05, 2022 3:46 am

amcnd wrote:
Hope they get rid of the hard stands. Thats about 13 gates….

Once the concourse A east expansion is done, all the DL/OO flights will move there from the hard stands.

LCDFlight · Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:11 am

With that huge new terminal, and SLC’s huge appeal and unlimited growth potential, I think SLC is going to be one of the main business and leisure hubs of the western US. I can see the market and airport passenger count doubling in the next 20 years. In fact, that is my prediction.

RyanairGuru · Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:17 am

PA815 wrote:
I’m surprised SYD isn’t being kept at daily with the three extra frequencies being used to MEL or BNE.

I suspect it’s because this is only a seasonal capacity increase. The costs of establishing an entirely new station are unlikely to be economic for a 3 weekly service that only runs for 3 months.

RyanairGuru · Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:17 am

PA815 wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
No other U.S. carrier can boast that they fly more than 1x daily LAX-SYD.

True, though UA will have three frequencies to SYD, just from a more diversified set of hubs.

Qantas as well.

SCFlyer · Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:25 am

phatfarmlines wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
Wondering if we'll see a 4xWk MEL on DL metal, as well.

Please let it be BNE. A350 or 330neo.

foxecho wrote:
oh GOD yes! Ive been waiting for DL to start flying its own metal into BNE for years...best friend is on the Gold Coast (OOL)

I'm wondering if BNE will see a boon in service as the host of the 2032 Summer Games. Not now, but in approx. 10 years time.

Most likely that would be the scenario.

Can't see any of the US3 into BNE in the short term, but possibly medium term in a 2-3 year timeframe for
* AA (as part of the QF JV - maybe sooner to potentially supplement LAX frequencies as QF reduces LAX frequencies as aircraft allocation gets transferred for SFO and ORD runs)
* UA (if they chose not to take the TQ/BAC/State assistance as part of the reported ongoing discussions between them and US representatives in the News Corp media).

bigb · Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:26 am

LCDFlight wrote:
With that huge new terminal, and SLC’s huge appeal and unlimited growth potential, I think SLC is going to be one of the main business and leisure hubs of the western US. I can see the market and airport passenger count doubling in the next 20 years. In fact, that is my prediction.

I don’t know about that, I don’ see it in terms of business, connections. Sure. Leisure, not any more than it is now.

SCFlyer · Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:35 am

rjbesikof wrote:
During a non-COVID U.S. winter (Australian summer), how does DL do on LAX-SYD?

Loads were reported to be 'solid' but not spectacular, taking the old JBA with VA into consideration. I'm not sure what the loads would be if they substracted the VA codeshare passengers from the loads on the DL flight.

LAX772LR · Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:38 am

ContinentalEWR wrote:
It's during peak season, but also a bit of a head scratcher. The existing flight hasn't been going out full, though presumably by the time the additional frequencies roll out the demand will be there. It also means 4 frames are tied up on certain days and a strong signal DL's TPAC network, just like the rest of the US3, is struggling big time. This sounds more like trying to find a place to fly an A350 rather than tapping into something sustainable, but that's what the pandemic has done to long haul international service and that's unlikely to change for the time being. With no feed on the SYD end, it will be interesting to see if this lasts beyond March 2023.

That's presumption, atop assumption, anchored by supposition....... all to form a gloomy picture that may not even remotely be the case. :lol:

Due to acquisition of used units, the airline will nearly double its A350 fleet size in very short order.

Having dozens of TPAC-capable aircraft is a situation DL hasn't been in since... well, ever.
So it's no surprise to see them expanding in ways such as this.

Heck, for all we know, this may just be the beginning of an even larger Australian/Oceanian push by them.

PA815 wrote:
I’m surprised SYD isn’t being kept at daily with the three extra frequencies being used to MEL or BNE.

May still get your wish. Who's to say that SYD doesn't stay 10xW, with MEL getting a new 4?

SCFlyer · Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:46 am

LAX772LR wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
It's during peak season, but also a bit of a head scratcher. The existing flight hasn't been going out full, though presumably by the time the additional frequencies roll out the demand will be there. It also means 4 frames are tied up on certain days and a strong signal DL's TPAC network, just like the rest of the US3, is struggling big time. This sounds more like trying to find a place to fly an A350 rather than tapping into something sustainable, but that's what the pandemic has done to long haul international service and that's unlikely to change for the time being. With no feed on the SYD end, it will be interesting to see if this lasts beyond March 2023.

That's presumption, atop assumption, anchored by supposition....... all to form a gloomy picture that may not even remotely be the case.

Due to acquisition of used units, the airline will nearly double its A350 fleet size in very short order.

Having dozens of TPAC-capable aircraft is a situation DL hasn't been in since... well, ever.
So it's no surprise to see them expanding in ways such as this.

Heck, for all we know, this may just be the beginning of an even larger Australian/Oceanian push by them.

PA815 wrote:
I’m surprised SYD isn’t being kept at daily with the three extra frequencies being used to MEL or BNE.

May still get your wish. Who's to say that SYD doesn't stay 10xW, with MEL getting a new 4?

I'm not sure if using 2 aircraft on 4x weekly to MEL (and the remaining x3 frequencies used elsewhere) may be a good use of CapEx, which includes initial costs of establishing a MEL station. IMO, I would say at least 5x weekly if DL proposes to establish MEL in the future.

jbs2886 · Tue Apr 05, 2022 4:51 am

SCFlyer wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
ContinentalEWR wrote:
It's during peak season, but also a bit of a head scratcher. The existing flight hasn't been going out full, though presumably by the time the additional frequencies roll out the demand will be there. It also means 4 frames are tied up on certain days and a strong signal DL's TPAC network, just like the rest of the US3, is struggling big time. This sounds more like trying to find a place to fly an A350 rather than tapping into something sustainable, but that's what the pandemic has done to long haul international service and that's unlikely to change for the time being. With no feed on the SYD end, it will be interesting to see if this lasts beyond March 2023.

That's presumption, atop assumption, anchored by supposition....... all to form a gloomy picture that may not even remotely be the case.

Due to acquisition of used units, the airline will nearly double its A350 fleet size in very short order.

Having dozens of TPAC-capable aircraft is a situation DL hasn't been in since... well, ever.
So it's no surprise to see them expanding in ways such as this.

Heck, for all we know, this may just be the beginning of an even larger Australian/Oceanian push by them.

PA815 wrote:
I’m surprised SYD isn’t being kept at daily with the three extra frequencies being used to MEL or BNE.

May still get your wish. Who's to say that SYD doesn't stay 10xW, with MEL getting a new 4?

I'm not sure if using 2 aircraft on 4x weekly to MEL (and the remaining x3 frequencies used elsewhere) may be a good use of CapEx, which includes initial costs of establishing a MEL station. IMO, I would say at least 5x weekly if DL proposes to establish MEL in the future.

The costs of launching the station seem a bit overstated here. DL is proposing a 3x weekly service to CPT (year round). Under your theory, that wouldn’t be viable. I’m certain we can identify a number of sub-daily stations that are operated seasonally. There are ways for DL to minimize costs, including using services of other airlines.

You also keep mentioning “frequencies” like they are slots. That is, you say DL would use the remaining 3 frequencies elsewhere. I was under the impression there weren’t limitations, is that incorrect?

LCDFlight · Tue Apr 05, 2022 5:13 am

bigb wrote:
LCDFlight wrote:
With that huge new terminal, and SLC’s huge appeal and unlimited growth potential, I think SLC is going to be one of the main business and leisure hubs of the western US. I can see the market and airport passenger count doubling in the next 20 years. In fact, that is my prediction.

I don’t know about that, I don’ see it in terms of business, connections. Sure. Leisure, not any more than it is now.

you’re probably right, but SLC will continue to grow steadily. I enjoy going to these growth cities and tracking their growth. SLC airport is turning into an absolute showplace. Half the people I spoke to there are recent arrivals from Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania… Chicago… not to mention LA area. Utah is very nice during the part of the year LA is in triple digits. Property is one third the price. I can’t see any end to the region’s growth.

LCDFlight · Tue Apr 05, 2022 5:22 am

jbs2886 wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
That's presumption, atop assumption, anchored by supposition....... all to form a gloomy picture that may not even remotely be the case.

Due to acquisition of used units, the airline will nearly double its A350 fleet size in very short order.

Having dozens of TPAC-capable aircraft is a situation DL hasn't been in since... well, ever.
So it's no surprise to see them expanding in ways such as this.

Heck, for all we know, this may just be the beginning of an even larger Australian/Oceanian push by them.

May still get your wish. Who's to say that SYD doesn't stay 10xW, with MEL getting a new 4?

I'm not sure if using 2 aircraft on 4x weekly to MEL (and the remaining x3 frequencies used elsewhere) may be a good use of CapEx, which includes initial costs of establishing a MEL station. IMO, I would say at least 5x weekly if DL proposes to establish MEL in the future.

The costs of launching the station seem a bit overstated here. DL is proposing a 3x weekly service to CPT (year round). Under your theory, that wouldn’t be viable. I’m certain we can identify a number of sub-daily stations that are operated seasonally. There are ways for DL to minimize costs, including using services of other airlines.

You also keep mentioning “frequencies” like they are slots. That is, you say DL would use the remaining 3 frequencies elsewhere. I was under the impression there weren’t limitations, is that incorrect?

The point would be about schedules, and I agree, ULH is not that simple. With Atlantic flying, one aircraft can serve one route per day. So 3x generally leaves one aircraft doing nothing for the other 4x. So it is a reasonable question why not serve another route 4x. With Pacific flying, it is not so simple. You need just about 2 aircraft per route IIRC, taking utilization to 12-15 hrs per day. If anyone knows how it works in this case, feel free to add.

I suspect 10x may use exactly 3 aircraft, so serving another route 4x would require another aircraft. And anyway, in a flight line Delta may actually be using 2.8 aircraft or 3.2 aircraft. It does not need to be a round number, although sometimes it still is.

LAX772LR · Tue Apr 05, 2022 5:46 am

LCDFlight wrote:
The point would be about schedules, and I agree, ULH is not that simple. With Atlantic flying, one aircraft can serve one route per day. So 3x generally leaves one aircraft doing nothing for the other 4x. So it is a reasonable question why not serve another route 4x. With Pacific flying, it is not so simple

There's no magical demarcation between "Atlantic" and "Pacific".... case in point, you were given the example of ATL-CPT, a transatlantic route that's longer than LAX-MEL, and would have similar utilization of the same aircraft type.

As demonstrated by its official filings: DL's happy to reopen and fly that station, with even less frequency than proposed here to MEL.

LAX772LR · Tue Apr 05, 2022 6:20 am

LCDFlight wrote:
Property is one third the price. I can’t see any end to the region’s growth.

Sure, but what you don't really see at anywhere near the same rate, is migration of big business (either as corporate relocation or just establishing a regional HQ) similar to the ways we're seeing at the likes of AUS and to a lesser extent BNA and RDU.

That's going to be the difference between SLC (re)gaining flights to the likes of TYO/ICN/PVG/FRA/GRU/etc versus the umpteenth frequency to LAX/LAS/MCO.

Lootess · Tue Apr 05, 2022 6:34 am

jbs2886 wrote:
SCFlyer wrote:
LAX772LR wrote:
That's presumption, atop assumption, anchored by supposition....... all to form a gloomy picture that may not even remotely be the case.

Due to acquisition of used units, the airline will nearly double its A350 fleet size in very short order.

Having dozens of TPAC-capable aircraft is a situation DL hasn't been in since... well, ever.
So it's no surprise to see them expanding in ways such as this.

Heck, for all we know, this may just be the beginning of an even larger Australian/Oceanian push by them.

May still get your wish. Who's to say that SYD doesn't stay 10xW, with MEL getting a new 4?

I'm not sure if using 2 aircraft on 4x weekly to MEL (and the remaining x3 frequencies used elsewhere) may be a good use of CapEx, which includes initial costs of establishing a MEL station. IMO, I would say at least 5x weekly if DL proposes to establish MEL in the future.

The costs of launching the station seem a bit overstated here. DL is proposing a 3x weekly service to CPT (year round). Under your theory, that wouldn’t be viable. I’m certain we can identify a number of sub-daily stations that are operated seasonally. There are ways for DL to minimize costs, including using services of other airlines.

You also keep mentioning “frequencies” like they are slots. That is, you say DL would use the remaining 3 frequencies elsewhere. I was under the impression there weren’t limitations, is that incorrect?

I'm sure DL can just utilize AF/KL at CPT, they already do the majority of hub ops. Can certainly just contract if they want to add BNE (which they should).

rjbesikof · Tue Apr 05, 2022 6:43 am

ContinentalEWR wrote:
It's during peak season, but also a bit of a head scratcher. The existing flight hasn't been going out full, though presumably by the time the additional frequencies roll out the demand will be there. It also means 4 frames are tied up on certain days and a strong signal DL's TPAC network, just like the rest of the US3, is struggling big time. This sounds more like trying to find a place to fly an A350 rather than tapping into something sustainable, but that's what the pandemic has done to long haul international service and that's unlikely to change for the time being. With no feed on the SYD end, it will be interesting to see if this lasts beyond March 2023.

The timing of the new flight is meh. I do see them staying 10x weekly on LAX-SYD during N America winter however the 2nd flight could become an evening departure out of SYD to feed the night flights out of LAX.

wjcandee · Tue Apr 05, 2022 6:54 am

ContinentalEWR wrote:
It's during peak season, but also a bit of a head scratcher. The existing flight hasn't been going out full....

Don't forget express cargo. $$$

planemanofnz · Tue Apr 05, 2022 9:31 am

It's interesting to see them pursue expansion at SYD despite losing the VA partnership.

I wonder if they'll look to add SEA-SYD or ATL-SYD rather than boost LAX-SYD further.

RyanairGuru wrote:
What will be interesting is if down the line, maybe another year or so, they consider MEL/BNE/AKL.

AKL would be the shortest and so cheapest to run. In fact, LAX-AKL could even be done on the 330 (it's practically the same distance as SEA-HKG which DL has done on 330s - 5,652 nm versus 5,648 nm). But obviously lower yields than SYD and MEL, and like with Australia, no local connecting partner.

Who is online

Popular Searches On Airliners.net