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AdEd
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:42 am

audidudi wrote:
AdEd wrote:
DL mentioned in their last earnings call that they expect to hit 100% of pre-Covid capacity by Summer 2023. Will be interesting to see how they achieve that on the TATL front. Currently at 538 weekly U.S. departures across the Atlantic.

Also it will be interesting to see how they achieve that on the TPAC front, unless they were only referring to TATL!

It's system-wide capacity, not just TATL nor TPAC, but I feel that TPAC is more predictable due to entry restrictions – getting more relaxed, but very slowly. TATL was DL's strongest suit pre-Covid, so it'll be interesting to see what happens on that front moving forward.
 
AdEd
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:49 am

ANA787 wrote:
AdEd wrote:
DL mentioned in their last earnings call that they expect to hit 100% of pre-Covid capacity by Summer 2023. Will be interesting to see how they achieve that on the TATL front. Currently at 538 weekly U.S. departures across the Atlantic.

Wonder if that means they'll jump back into the PDX-LHR market, which was planned to operate daily in a newly configured 764 alongside BA's new PDX-LHR flight in 2020. If DL thinks LHR is a lost cause now I wonder if they'd try PDX-CDG for a summer.

I do not believe that DL thinks LHR is a lost cause. This year alone they decided to resume seasonal SLC-LHR (starting June 7 on A332), pushed the start date forward (to May 14), and then converted it into year-round service. Next March they'll also upgrade the equipment on SLC-LHR (and SEA-LHR) to an A339. I believe there is more to come for LHR next summer, if not the UK as a whole.
 
FLYKTPA
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:56 am

AdEd wrote:
ANA787 wrote:
AdEd wrote:
DL mentioned in their last earnings call that they expect to hit 100% of pre-Covid capacity by Summer 2023. Will be interesting to see how they achieve that on the TATL front. Currently at 538 weekly U.S. departures across the Atlantic.

Wonder if that means they'll jump back into the PDX-LHR market, which was planned to operate daily in a newly configured 764 alongside BA's new PDX-LHR flight in 2020. If DL thinks LHR is a lost cause now I wonder if they'd try PDX-CDG for a summer.

I do not believe that DL thinks LHR is a lost cause. This year alone they decided to resume seasonal SLC-LHR (starting June 7 on A332), pushed the start date forward (to May 14), and then converted it into year-round service. Next March they'll also upgrade the equipment on SLC-LHR (and SEA-LHR) to an A339. I believe there is more to come for LHR next summer, if not the UK as a whole.



The poster was talking about PDX-LHR, particularly since British Airways now offers it since Delta has last flown the route. There was no mention of SLC… they were just talking about the PDX-LHR in particular it seems, not all of DL’s LHR network
 
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gregn21
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Jul 25, 2022 3:17 am

What ever happened to DL’s pre-covid plans to re enter LGW?

With all the havoc at LHR, now would be an interesting time to look back into it.
 
AdEd
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Jul 25, 2022 3:22 am

FLYKTPA wrote:
AdEd wrote:
ANA787 wrote:
Wonder if that means they'll jump back into the PDX-LHR market, which was planned to operate daily in a newly configured 764 alongside BA's new PDX-LHR flight in 2020. If DL thinks LHR is a lost cause now I wonder if they'd try PDX-CDG for a summer.

I do not believe that DL thinks LHR is a lost cause. This year alone they decided to resume seasonal SLC-LHR (starting June 7 on A332), pushed the start date forward (to May 14), and then converted it into year-round service. Next March they'll also upgrade the equipment on SLC-LHR (and SEA-LHR) to an A339. I believe there is more to come for LHR next summer, if not the UK as a whole.


The poster was talking about PDX-LHR, particularly since British Airways now offers it since Delta has last flown the route. There was no mention of SLC… they were just talking about the PDX-LHR in particular it seems, not all of DL’s LHR network


That makes sense. Sorry for the misunderstanding!
 
TW870
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:42 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
audidudi wrote:
AdEd wrote:
DL mentioned in their last earnings call that they expect to hit 100% of pre-Covid capacity by Summer 2023. Will be interesting to see how they achieve that on the TATL front. Currently at 538 weekly U.S. departures across the Atlantic.

Also it will be interesting to see how they achieve that on the TPAC front, unless they were only referring to TATL!


I suspect they mean total capacity, not each market.


Given that it still seems highly unlikely that China will be anywhere near back to pre-Covid capacity, my guess is that the systemwide ASMs will be made up in three areas:
1. Higher utilization of the narrowbody fleets once more pilots get through training
2. More long haul premium leisure - PPT, CPT, and perhaps other new destinations
3. Very robust summer seasonal Europe - especially to southern Europe with the 330 and possibly 350 fleets that will push up ASMs

These are all just guesses, but as others imply here, you will need significant offsets for pre-Covid China for total ASMs
 
nine4nine
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Jul 25, 2022 10:51 pm

SLCaviation wrote:
SLC-BUR also gets mainline this September.


I looked into booking on the site and in Sept and Oct I’m still seeing E175 by delta connection.

What do you see and what mainline equipment?
 
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SLCaviation
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:19 pm

[twoid][/twoid]
nine4nine wrote:
SLCaviation wrote:
SLC-BUR also gets mainline this September.


I looked into booking on the site and in Sept and Oct I’m still seeing E175 by delta connection.

What do you see and what mainline equipment?

I apologize, its in November. A once daily 737-800.
 
MAH4546
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Tue Jul 26, 2022 6:10 am

ContinentalEWR wrote:
mugsy519 wrote:

Air Berlin's TATL network from Berlin to the US was JFK, LAX, BOS, ORD, and SFO, I believe. Outside of JFK, none were served daily. All on A330-200s. JFK was supposed to go 10 x weekly with a second service 3 days per week in Summer 2017 but that never happened on AB. The operation was a mess at TXL. AB used a small parking lot on the edge of the airport just past the main terminal to park arriving A330s for the most part and arrivals were processed in a temporary structure, though some A330s used the main terminal as gates were available. You exited and boarded the plane via stairs when the parking lot system was used.


There was never BOS-TXL. Boston was briefly served from just Düsseldorf.

There was also Miami, which was airberlin’s first U.S. route from Tegel and launched in 2010. Miami is Berlin’s second largest long haul market, surprised Norse hasn’t announced it yet.
 
dstblj52
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Wed Jul 27, 2022 9:41 pm

pezzy669 wrote:
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
It appears that ATL-HNL will be upgauged from an A333 to the 3-class ex LATAM A359 (35L) for the winter. This increases the daily seats from 282/296 to 339.
Makes sense as DL is trying to deploy the 35Ls on more leisure orient routes and also to take advantage of the 36 additional seats versus the 4-class A359s.

Other Hawaii stuff based on current equipment loaded for Christmas / New Years holiday using 12/19/22 as a proxy date:

ATL-HNL A359 (35L)


Have a 1/2023 Hawaii trip booked (ATL-HNL-LIH-HNL-ATL) and received the schedule change a couple days ago. First was excited it was A359 - then I saw the 3x3x3 seating with no premium select option. Wish it had stayed A333 with its more optimal for couples 2x4x2 configuration.

Wonder if DL has enough year round leisure holiday markets to justify keeping this small sub fleet of LATAM birds as a high density vacation fleet versus doing a full DL interior refit to match the DL A359.

I doubt it delta tends to be pretty strict on brand stuff it was only the frankly apocalyptic narrow body staffing that pushed for this to keep more better staff widebodies moving domestic runs, I could imagine they maybe do a subfleet with different ratios but they will probably go 4 class and suites
 
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LAXintl
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Fri Jul 29, 2022 3:40 pm

ATL-CPT eff 12/17/22 - 3x weekly A350
ATL-TLV eff 5/10/23 - 3x weekly A350
LAX-PPT eff 12/17/22 - 3x weekly B763

https://news.delta.com/delta-bolsters-d ... and-tahiti

Seperately resuming LAX-MIA eff 12/17 - 2x daily B739
 
EADSYABSOB73857
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:50 am

I missed this article last month published by The Points Guy:

https://thepointsguy.com/news/delta-dro ... ic-routes/

Looks like DL is axing both BOS-MEM and BOS-YYZ before they were even launched. I think the YYZ drop is interesting. Based on 2019 numbers, TOR is the second busiest international market for BOS and within the top 10 business markets. I know that WS serves BOS-YYZ, but I don't think it's very competitive, especially given DL´s premium focus in BOS. I feel that YYZ is an important market for them that they will have to connect from BOS and offer a first class product, as well as a better schedule with greater frequency.
Last edited by EADSYABSOB73857 on Mon Aug 01, 2022 1:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
EADSYABSOB73857
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:59 am

Pre pandemic, DL/VS was running three flights a day on BOS-LHR, and they announced the addition of a 4th daily BOS-LON flight via LGW- I think they were adding LGW to try to blunt B6´s arrival. Fast forward to now- DL/VS is only running 2x daily BOS-LHR... VS took away their morning flight. In the BOS thread in the past we've talked about the importance of morning flights to LON as it's an important option for business travelers. DL/VS having taken that morning flight away is a disadvantage in comparison to AA/BA. Does anyone think DL/VS will add back the morning flight at some point, given how DL is laser focused on BOS; and could they decide to reannounce the BOS-LGW flight to compete against B6?
 
kavok
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Aug 01, 2022 1:12 am

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
Pre pandemic, DL/VS was running three flights a day on BOS-LHR, and they announced the addition of a 4th daily BOS-LON flight via LGW- I think they were adding LGW to try to blunt B6´s arrival. Fast forward to now- DL/VS is only running 2x daily BOS-LHR... VS took away their morning flight. In the BOS thread in the past we've talked about the importance of morning flights to LON as it's an important option for business travelers. DL/VS having taken that morning flight away is a disadvantage in comparison to AA/BA. Does anyone think DL/VS will add back the morning flight at some point, given how DL is laser focused on BOS; and could they decide to reannounce the BOS-LGW flight to compete against B6?


I think the question is more of “how soon does it need to happen?”.

It’s important to remember DL is still pushing forward the July and August flight cuts into Fall and beyond schedule. Obviously because of staffing issues. This means any new route, including starting a new route that was announced but not yet flown, is pulling away pilots from elsewhere to fly that new route.

It is a near zero sum game. To add a flight one place means cuts elsewhere. And to be honest, most BOS adds are probably not going to be as profitable as the route being cut to replace it. Yes obviously DL want to keep their momentum of growth in BOS going… but at what cost? The longer they can go without making the add, the more profitable the overall operation remains. So growth will likely still happen, but it benefits DL to stretch out temporally BOS growth as much as perception will allow.
 
tjerome
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Aug 01, 2022 6:33 am

In addition DL is basically doing away with flying 757s across the pond, one exception being MSP-KEF and that's in a regular 199 seat 757 (not the 75S). It would be hard IMO to see a 764 on BOS-LHR and a 76W on BOS-LGW.
 
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chrisnh
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:26 am

tjerome wrote:
In addition DL is basically doing away with flying 757s across the pond, one exception being MSP-KEF and that's in a regular 199 seat 757 (not the 75S). It would be hard IMO to see a 764 on BOS-LHR and a 76W on BOS-LGW.


Unless that 763 were positioned to do a morning flight. Right now, BA has got the morning flight all to themselves.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:32 pm

EADSYABSOB73857 wrote:
DL/VS having taken that morning flight away is a disadvantage in comparison to AA/BA. Does anyone think DL/VS will add back the morning flight at some point, given how DL is laser focused on BOS...


Does anyone have avg fare data, now and 2019, on morning flights vs. evening flights? If morning flights have poor yields don't expect one to come back quickly. Kavok outlines why.
 
rjbesikof
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:33 pm

ATL-MXP and BOS-FCO are getting longer seasons in NS23; both resume 3/8/2023
https://aeroroutes.com/eng/220730-dlnw22inc
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Tue Aug 02, 2022 8:52 pm

Cross-posting:

Within the EAS thread its been discussed that DL / Skywest are adjusting a lot of their Upper Midwest EAS flying starting in September.

From DTW this impacts APN, CIU, IMT, ESC, and PLN. Instead of 2x daily nonstops they are combining into multi-stops bridging between DTW & MSP as follows:

DTW-PLN-ESC-MSP; MSP-ESC-PLN-DTW
DTW-APN-CIU-MSP; MSP-CIU-APN-DTW
DTW-IMT-RHI-MSP; MSP-RHI-IMT-DTW

All are being flown as morning departures from DTW with returns in the evenings, no overnight of crews or RON aircraft in these outstations.

FWIW, DTW-PLN operates at 3x daily summer time, sometimes with up gauging to CR9, above the EAS contracted capacity due to demand in peak summer months.
 
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VS4ever
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Wed Aug 03, 2022 1:48 am

rjbesikof wrote:
ATL-MXP and BOS-FCO are getting longer seasons in NS23; both resume 3/8/2023
https://aeroroutes.com/eng/220730-dlnw22inc


Happy to see the growth on BOS-FCO , also they are flipping BOS-DUB to a 764ER from a 763ER which is an extra 20 odd seats. I can see that going to a 330 eventually if they can figure out the rotation through BOS.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:53 pm

VS4ever wrote:
rjbesikof wrote:
ATL-MXP and BOS-FCO are getting longer seasons in NS23; both resume 3/8/2023
https://aeroroutes.com/eng/220730-dlnw22inc


Happy to see the growth on BOS-FCO , also they are flipping BOS-DUB to a 764ER from a 763ER which is an extra 20 odd seats. I can see that going to a 330 eventually if they can figure out the rotation through BOS.


It's nice to see them pulling the start up instead of pushing it out, but even in late pre-Covid times DL was known for adjusting start dates and frequencies all through the winter for the March/April/May resumptions of TATL services. This far in advance, a March 8 resumption can't be called much of a commitment.
 
questions
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Fri Aug 05, 2022 4:16 am

Can someone summarize what we know to date regarding how DL will evolve in MIA due to LA?
 
AdEd
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:41 am

Is JFK-CPH still considered seasonal? There only seems to be a 2.5 month suspension between Jan 8 and Mar 24 next year, in the same vein as other 'year-round' routes such as JFK-ATH and BOS-TLV.
 
MAH4546
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Fri Aug 05, 2022 7:53 am

questions wrote:
Can someone summarize what we know to date regarding how DL will evolve in MIA due to LA?


So far double daily to Orlando starts in November and double daily to Los Angeles start in December.
 
jplatts
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Fri Aug 05, 2022 6:52 pm

USAirALB wrote:
I wonder if DL will respond with something like SEA-CLT/PHL.


I had previously mentioned the possibility of DL adding SEA-PHL nonstop service with PHL being one of the top remaining domestic destinations traveled to from SEA that doesn't currently have DL nonstop service out of SEA.

Demand for SEA-CLT nonstop service is likely to be stronger on AA than it would be on DL with AS still having a much stronger presence at SEA than DL does along with AS FF's being able to earn AS miles on AA flights.

I had previously mentioned the possibility of DL adding CLT-LAX nonstop service with CLT-LAX being one of the top domestic routes in the entire U.S. by O&D PDEW's that doesn't currently have nonstop competition. CLT-LAX also had higher O&D PDEW's than CLT-ATL/DTW/MSP/SLC in Q1 2022.

Here are the Q1 2022 PDEW's of CLT-ATL/DTW/MSP/LAX/SLC:
CLT-LAX - 352
CLT-DTW - 200
CLT-SLC - 176
CLT-MSP - 163
CLT-ATL - 152

Even though CLT-ATL/DTW/MSP/SLC have less O&D than CLT-LAX, there are three big differences between CLT-ATL/DTW/MSP/SLC and CLT-LAX, including the following:
  • AA, DL, and UA all have hubs at LAX whereas DL is the only US3 carrier that has hubs at ATL/DTW/MSP/SLC
  • LAX is located on the West Coast whereas ATL/DTW/MSP/SLC are non-coastal DL hub cities that have more connecting opportunities on DL
  • CLT-LAX is a hub-to-hub nonstop route for AA

DL already has nonstop service out of LAX to a few AA hub airports that aren't hubs for DL such as DFW, PHX, and DCA, but DFW/PHX/DCA have stronger O&D demand from LAX than CLT does. DL is also taking advantage of one of its DCA beyond-perimeter slot exemption pairs on its LAX-DCA route.

There was also a discussion regarding possible competitive adds that DL could make against AA over at viewtopic.php?t=1468387.
 
CIDFlyer
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:00 pm

[list=][/list]Mentioned in another thread, these cities are getting cut from DTW in October

ABE-DTW
BTV-DTW
CID-DTW
DAY-DTW
FWA-DTW

Also, looks like MLI - MSP is cut as of October schedule as well.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:09 pm

MSP-MLI is supposedly included in the round of RJ cuts loaded this past weekend too.
 
CIDFlyer
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:15 pm

One other thing I’ve noticed, routes like GRB to both MSP and DTW that historically used to have mainline and large RJs are now all CRJ. ATW also is all CRJ to DTW and MSP. I believe they used to get CR9s and CR7s
 
jplatts
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:29 pm

rbavfan wrote:
kavok wrote:
Maybe the value for DL is simply that LGA slots are perceived to be valuable.


LGA is a slot restricted airport. Use it or loose it. Delta would not risk loosing slots they may need in 2 years. Everyone would bid on the slots. And remember just because Delta has a slot LGA-XXX does not mean another carrier would take the slot to fly the same route.


If DL still has unused slots at LGA, there are a few more markets in the Southeast such as AGS, CHA, JAN, and TLH that could probably support DL nonstop service to LGA with the amount of O&D demand that AGS/CHA/JAN/TLH have to the NYC market along with AGS/CHA/JAN/TLH currently having no nonstop service to NYC.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:33 pm

jplatts wrote:
If DL still has unused slots at LGA, there are a few more markets in the Southeast such as AGS, CHA, JAN, and TLH that could probably support DL nonstop service to LGA...


Those don't exactly sound like heavy NYC business origins to me, nor heavy NYC leisure destinations. Have any PDEWs on those?
 
jplatts
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:48 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
If DL still has unused slots at LGA, there are a few more markets in the Southeast such as AGS, CHA, JAN, and TLH that could probably support DL nonstop service to LGA...


Those don't exactly sound like heavy NYC business origins to me, nor heavy NYC leisure destinations. Have any PDEWs on those?


Here are the Q1 2022 PDEW's of NYC-AGS/CHA/JAN/TLH:
NYC-CHA - 42
NYC-JAN - 42
NYC-TLH - 39
NYC-AGS - 38

Most of the contiguous U.S. markets that have higher PDEW's to NYC than CHA-NYC already have nonstop service to LGA, JFK, or EWR on at least a seasonal, less-than-daily basis.
 
TW870
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sun Aug 07, 2022 5:00 pm

CIDFlyer wrote:
One other thing I’ve noticed, routes like GRB to both MSP and DTW that historically used to have mainline and large RJs are now all CRJ. ATW also is all CRJ to DTW and MSP. I believe they used to get CR9s and CR7s


My guess is that has to do with pilot training pipeline versus capacity needs across the rest of the network. They need large RJs in the super-competitive markets like BOS, LGA, SEA, LAX, etc. But they still have a large number of pilots qualified on the CR2, and it will take time to train them on the CR9 and E75. In the medium term, the midwest will end up stuck with the CR2s because they don't face the same competitive pressure.

I'm thinking of status matching over to United for my DAY-MSP commute because the DL network is so gutted in the midwest. But honestly that is not a great option. Fares are sky high, and then I'd be stuck with endless ORD and DEN connections during the times when I work out of MSP. It is just going to be a rough couple of years until some of the pilot pipeline issues get worked out.

My friend is an air traffic controller at DTW approach and their facility just got downgraded due to reduced volume. That impacts pay and benefits. So lots of us are feeling the crunch in the midwest.
 
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Midwestindy
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sun Aug 07, 2022 5:06 pm

CIDFlyer wrote:
One other thing I’ve noticed, routes like GRB to both MSP and DTW that historically used to have mainline and large RJs are now all CRJ. ATW also is all CRJ to DTW and MSP. I believe they used to get CR9s and CR7s


There is some downguaging, but not too much from what I can see.

Looking at Fridays in October

Route - Pre-Covid frequency - October 2022 Frequency
DTW-ATW - 3xCR9/1xCR2 - 2xCR2
DTW-GRB - 2xCR9/1xCR7/1xCR2 - 3xCR2
DTW-GSP - 1xB717/1xCR9/1xCR7 - 2xCR9
DTW-MEM - 2xB717/1xCR9 - 1xB717/1xCR9
DTW-MKE - 1xA321/2xA319/1xB717/1xCR9 - 1xA319/1xB717/2xCR9
DTW-LAN/AZO used to see 1x CR7
DTW-ROC/SYR used to see 1x mainline
 
jplatts
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:23 pm

DL RDU-ORD nonstop service is currently scheduled to resume on 11/9/2022, and DL CVG-ORD/DFW nonstop service is currently scheduled to resume on 4/10/2023.

Is DL likely to resume RDU-ORD and CVG-ORD/DFW nonstop service as scheduled, or is DL likely to drop or push out the resumption dates of RDU-ORD and CVG-ORD/DFW?
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:44 pm

Who knows.....its all placeholder at this point. As we saw over the weekend, they are working the changes on the October schedule and just hacked out a bunch of regional capacity.
The November schedule is placeholder / default at this point.

Frankly, I would be shocked if RDU-ORD starts in November
 
717atOGG
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:55 pm

Looks like DL is adding BOS-HPN, 3x/day on Republic starting 10/6. Their BOS network is really getting impressive! If I had to guess, I'd say BOS-PDX/IAH/SRQ/SJU all make sense as future adds there.
 
FlyHPN
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:48 pm

717atOGG wrote:
Looks like DL is adding BOS-HPN, 3x/day on Republic starting 10/6. Their BOS network is really getting impressive! If I had to guess, I'd say BOS-PDX/IAH/SRQ/SJU all make sense as future adds there.


3x A DAY?!?! I can’t figure this one out. For O&D, LaGuardia shuttle is only another 40 minutes down the road and offers far more flexibility. JFK is not too much further, and I can’t think of anywhere you can get from BOS that you can’t from JFK.

The only think is they’re trying to squat on the “passenger allocation” with the cuts from DTW, but this far from replaces where I could get in the Midwest.

Color me confused.
 
Detroit313
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:43 am

Article in English from the Greek press about the new BOS - ATH route.

Athens-Boston tickets selling ‘like hotcakes’

https://www.ekathimerini.com/society/11 ... -hotcakes/

Is it becoming daily next year?
 
IND96
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:33 pm

How many months in advance is DL finalizing the schedule now? Traveling MSP-JNB-MSP the first week of January and got bumped to a 5 hour layover- wondering if this may change again, or I'm stuck.
 
SEAorPWM
Posts: 400
Joined: Fri Jun 11, 2021 8:41 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:15 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
WidebodyPTV wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

Yep. And I predict those types will substantially be gone by 1/1/2031. Viability of aircraft long-term is always about fuel prices.* I'm guessing DL is having a long, hard fleet review. (See, for example, how the sustained fuel price climb 2005 into 2008 killed off so many NW DC-9s.)

https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ ... months=360

* unless you've bought into a limited-production type like 717 and MD-90

Anybody know what LH is getting for utilization of its A340-300 fleet these days, compared to three years ago?

I'm guessing DL acquired the last-built 757s and last-built 739s because it has a lower forecast of medium to long-term fuel prices than other big carriers. NW looked brilliant with its low CapEx refurbs of DC-9 interiors (begun in 1994 when Jet A was $0.50/gal) but not so smart in 2008 when fuel hit $3.89. A plan built on low fuel price forecasts to justify delaying purchases of current-gen aircraft is inherently risky.


Fallacy. NW double-downed on the DC-9 just a couple years before the Great Recession, when it rejected the leases of oodles of brand new A319 during its bankruptcy. It then planned for an E90/E95 order to replace the DC-9, but then the Great Recession hit, and the large number of CR9 / E75 that were being delivered -- initially to restore capacity lost with the rejection of the ARJ -- were used as de facto DC-9 replacements. Fuel played a role, but so did the number of aircraft coming into the fleet.


So you're saying it was smart to be flying DC-9s when fuel was $3.75/gallon? Much of that sustained 2005-2008 fuel spike was a period NW spent in Ch 11. Checchi and labor issues were among reasons NW had an old, inefficient fleet into the early 2000s, and then the fuel spike meant they had even less free cash flow to update it. Newco never got the size aircraft proposed, nor a third of the count -- and that left NW with DC-9s even longer.

https://www.reutersevents.com/travel/ar ... r-cities-i

It really supports my point: a carrier hopes for low fuel prices to rationalize flying old/inefficient aircraft (the classic 'But they're paid for!' argument), and then when fuel prices shoot up they don't have the earnings to update the fleet.

The 'But they're paid for!' argument can work when you can afford to park a bunch of aircraft mid-week or seasonally and live with low avg utilization over the year but that's very expensive when those aircraft types have a separate pilot labor pool.

United has the oldest fleet among the U.S. majors, a Fitch B+ credit rating (just two notches from junk), a LOT of new planes on order, and for the past decade has had sort of mid-industry margins. It's going to be interesting to watch UA's free cash flow for the next ~six years.

The Outlook revision is driven by higher jet fuel prices and increased downside risks presented by inflationary pressures and related economic impacts. These impacts along with United's heavy planned capital spending over the next several years, and remaining uncertainties around traffic recovery related to COVID have increased the risks to United's credit profile.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/c ... 18-03-2022


Old comment, but I wanted to say this: screw Fitch.

They are complaining about the necessary capex these carriers need to replace their older and less efficient previous-gen aircraft (the models you mentioned plus the many 1993-era 90s A320's). Therefore, I would take their opinion with a grain of salt.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sat Aug 13, 2022 12:49 pm

SEAorPWM wrote:
Old comment, but I wanted to say this: screw Fitch.

They are complaining about the necessary capex these carriers need to replace their older and less efficient previous-gen aircraft (the models you mentioned plus the many 1993-era 90s A320's). Therefore, I would take their opinion with a grain of salt.


Yeah, but you can't really say 'Screw markets!' because it's the markets that set interest rates for borrowing (and U.S. carriers have maybe $150 Billion to finance/refinance over the next few year) and for fuel hedging.

I agree with you that CapEx is necessary for fleet replacement. In this forum I've argued that DL's forecast for CapEx is too low as it wants to declare itself a machine throwing off cash to investors. DL pointedly said in its announcement for the MAX order that its forecast for CapEx remains unchanged -- easy, because its forecast for CapEx ends at 2024 and MAX deliveries start in 2025!

The order is within Delta’s 2022-24 Capex guidance provided at Capital Markets Day in December 2021.

https://news.delta.com/delta-adds-state ... -max-fleet
 
PoorSailorsAir
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sat Aug 13, 2022 2:11 pm

No surprise, but per Google Flights, looks like MSP/PDX-HND resumptions are pushed until March 2023. I didn’t check other routes, but I assume there’s other reductions for HND as well.
 
TW870
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Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:01 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sat Aug 13, 2022 4:10 pm

IND96 wrote:
How many months in advance is DL finalizing the schedule now? Traveling MSP-JNB-MSP the first week of January and got bumped to a 5 hour layover- wondering if this may change again, or I'm stuck.


Given how far they have cut the hub-to-hub flying on MSP-DTW and MSP-ATL, I am getting very long sits as well on some of my business trips starting in October. But just looking at the schedule now, I think you should be able to leave MSP on the 12:45 flight, get in at 4:40 and then have a two and a half hour sit before getting on the long haul to JNB. If they put you on an early flight out of MSP, they should be able to rebook you by phone at no charge. Almost all of my work trips have required phone calls to fix auto-generated rebookings.
 
TW870
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Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2013 2:01 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sat Aug 13, 2022 4:13 pm

PoorSailorsAir wrote:
No surprise, but per Google Flights, looks like MSP/PDX-HND resumptions are pushed until March 2023. I didn’t check other routes, but I assume there’s other reductions for HND as well.


Yep, no surprise. Until U.S. originating passengers can enter Japan without a visa - or at least until it is easier to get a visa - I think these routes will stay suspended. With these restrictions continuing, there is just no way they have enough demand to run these flights. Its a shame because I miss our afternoon Asia departure here at MSP!
 
AdEd
Posts: 119
Joined: Sat May 11, 2019 6:05 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sat Aug 13, 2022 4:56 pm

PoorSailorsAir wrote:
No surprise, but per Google Flights, looks like MSP/PDX-HND resumptions are pushed until March 2023. I didn’t check other routes, but I assume there’s other reductions for HND as well.


ATL/DTW-HND are still going daily from Oct 28.

SEA-HND appears to be on (daily) and off between Oct 28 and Nov 27, and then suspended until Jan 8. Goes daily after.

LAX-HND resumes Oct 30, thrice a week. Daily from Dec 1.

HNL-HND pushed back to Dec 1, daily.
 
rjbesikof
Posts: 549
Joined: Wed Jan 22, 2020 4:21 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sat Aug 13, 2022 5:00 pm

PoorSailorsAir wrote:
No surprise, but per Google Flights, looks like MSP/PDX-HND resumptions are pushed until March 2023. I didn’t check other routes, but I assume there’s other reductions for HND as well.


PDX-ICN seems to have also been pushed back.
 
OKCDCA
Posts: 321
Joined: Sat Sep 30, 2017 2:50 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sat Aug 13, 2022 5:06 pm

Not major but good news for us here in COS. SLC-COS being upgraded from a CR2 to E75 in November.

Now if we can just get our ATL flight back…
 
PoorSailorsAir
Posts: 7
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:32 am

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Sat Aug 13, 2022 5:23 pm

TW870 wrote:
PoorSailorsAir wrote:
No surprise, but per Google Flights, looks like MSP/PDX-HND resumptions are pushed until March 2023. I didn’t check other routes, but I assume there’s other reductions for HND as well.


Yep, no surprise. Until U.S. originating passengers can enter Japan without a visa - or at least until it is easier to get a visa - I think these routes will stay suspended. With these restrictions continuing, there is just no way they have enough demand to run these flights. Its a shame because I miss our afternoon Asia departure here at MSP!


At least MSP-ICN is still scheduled to resume 3X weekly on Oct. 2nd, switching to daily on Oct. 28th.
 
jplatts
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Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Aug 15, 2022 12:39 am

DL has completely dropped CVG-ORD/DFW nonstop service from its flight schedules, and that was discussed over in the Rest of Ohio Aviation Thread at viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468521&start=500#p23421899.

Here is the breakdown of remaining DL nonstop service out of CVG in July 2023 (as of 8/14/2022) (42 daily departures):
7x ATL, 1x AUS, 3x BOS, 1x DEN, 4x DTW, 1x FLL, 1x RSW, 1x LAS, 1x LAX, 4x MSP, 5x LGA, 1x JFK, 3x EWR, 2x MCO, 2x SLC, 1x SEA, 1x TPA, 3x DCA
 
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ElroyJetson
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Re: Delta Network Thread - 2022

Mon Aug 15, 2022 1:58 am

News on how DL will deploy their LATAM A350's


Atlanta – Dublin 15AUG22 – 28OCT22
Atlanta – Honolulu 30OCT22 – 25MAR23
Atlanta – Los Angeles 12SEP22 – 29OCT22
Atlanta – Santiago de Chile 3 weekly (1 daily from 29OCT22)
Atlanta – Seattle until 05OCT22
Atlanta – Tel Aviv eff 10MAY23




https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220814-dl350

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