Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
gregn21 wrote:While this looks great for DL on first glance it’s important to note AA’s market share is bolstered by large portions of B6 and AS capacity through the NEA and WCIA.
CaptainLeo wrote:More from the rumor mill. In addition to LAX-AKL, DAL is looking to add LAX/SLC-ICN. I would assume an official announcement will come sometime next week.
BoeingGuy wrote:CaptainLeo wrote:More from the rumor mill. In addition to LAX-AKL, DAL is looking to add LAX/SLC-ICN. I would assume an official announcement will come sometime next week.
SLC-ICN has been rumored for a long time, but still hasn’t happened. There was going to be an announcement next week many times on A.net. I’d like to see it, but will believe it when it happens.
CaptainLeo wrote:More from the rumor mill. In addition to LAX-AKL, DAL is looking to add LAX/SLC-ICN. I would assume an official announcement will come sometime next week.
Boeing757100 wrote:CaptainLeo wrote:More from the rumor mill. In addition to LAX-AKL, DAL is looking to add LAX/SLC-ICN. I would assume an official announcement will come sometime next week.
Upthread there was a post saying that crew bases in JFK were told to look out for JFK-ICN and JFK-BOM. Maybe those will be reaffirmed or otherwise made more public, but we’ll have to see about that.
BB78710 wrote:MAH4546 wrote:BB78710 wrote:While AA has drawn down Asian flying from LAX (literally just like UA and DL - all of them are down to only Tokyo), it has not discontinued LAXAKL. LAXAKL is not operating this winter season but is planned to operate for W23/24.
What was posted was AA drawdown of international flights at LAX, no one specifically pointed to Asia only. AA had a much larger international operation out of LAX which they have drawn down and I'll let you have yourf AA's return to LAX-AKL, I think most of us know that flight is gone and isn't returning on AA metal for the foreseeable future.
The point I was making was all 3 legacy carriers do appear to be stagnant at LAX for the time being. I know no one single US3 carrier will ever completely dominate LAX but I think AA's international drawdown has created opportunities for either DL or UA. Just look at Delta's JV partner Latam they will launch nonstop service between LAX and GRU taking over a route AA once flew. It is just one route but it is also an example of how AA's departure created an opportunity for Latam a Delta JV partner.
I do think there is an opening at LAX for Delta on LAX-AKL route if those rumors are true and Airbus is able to deliver more widebodies to Delta on-time that Delta could launch AKL in W23/24. And I also think Delta is strong enough here in the US to go at it alone and perhaps even launch LAX-MEL without a partner Down Under but it would take a real commitment from their revenue management team (set realistic expectations) because the road to profitability on either of these routes wouldn't be fast or easy, but it can be done if given time. United did it in Australia for decades without a partner in Australia and actually grew their Australia operations (except for SFO-BNE) before they partnered up with Virgin Australia.
Boeing757100 wrote:CaptainLeo wrote:More from the rumor mill. In addition to LAX-AKL, DAL is looking to add LAX/SLC-ICN. I would assume an official announcement will come sometime next week.
Upthread there was a post saying that crew bases in JFK were told to look out for JFK-ICN and JFK-BOM. Maybe those will be reaffirmed or otherwise made more public, but we’ll have to see about that.
CaptainLeo wrote:Boeing757100 wrote:CaptainLeo wrote:More from the rumor mill. In addition to LAX-AKL, DAL is looking to add LAX/SLC-ICN. I would assume an official announcement will come sometime next week.
Upthread there was a post saying that crew bases in JFK were told to look out for JFK-ICN and JFK-BOM. Maybe those will be reaffirmed or otherwise made more public, but we’ll have to see about that.
Yes i've heard those rumors. I've also heard JFK-JNB may be part of that announcement. I guess we'll have to see. My friend told me there is some type of employee event happening in SLC next week and all the corporate leaders will be there. So that's why i'm assuming we may get some sort of announcement next week.
CaptainLeo wrote:Boeing757100 wrote:CaptainLeo wrote:More from the rumor mill. In addition to LAX-AKL, DAL is looking to add LAX/SLC-ICN. I would assume an official announcement will come sometime next week.
Upthread there was a post saying that crew bases in JFK were told to look out for JFK-ICN and JFK-BOM. Maybe those will be reaffirmed or otherwise made more public, but we’ll have to see about that.
Yes i've heard those rumors. I've also heard JFK-JNB may be part of that announcement. I guess we'll have to see. My friend told me there is some type of employee event happening in SLC next week and all the corporate leaders will be there. So that's why i'm assuming we may get some sort of announcement next week.
jplatts wrote:BoeingGuy wrote:CaptainLeo wrote:More from the rumor mill. In addition to LAX-AKL, DAL is looking to add LAX/SLC-ICN. I would assume an official announcement will come sometime next week.
SLC-ICN has been rumored for a long time, but still hasn’t happened. There was going to be an announcement next week many times on A.net. I’d like to see it, but will believe it when it happens.
If DL adds SLC-ICN nonstop service, there would be some connecting opportunities available on both ends of the SLC-ICN route (including connections to other Asian destinations from SLC-ICN, connections to other U.S. destinations from ICN-SLC, and U.S.-SLC-ICN-Asia double connections) due to the DL-KE partnership.
Is there any real need for DL to serve ICN nonstop from LAX on DL metal with DL's partner KE already having nonstop service to ICN from LAX?
WidebodyPTV wrote:Either DL's about to announce the largest long-haul expansion in company history -- during an era where's it's starved for domestic resources -- or imaginations are running at full speed on a.net...
The JFK-ICN/BOM rumor was mentioned awhile ago by a poster who regularly shares "rumors" and has an accuracy rate that's about on par with simply guessing. And for JFK-ICN, JFK-BOM, LAX-AKL, LAX-ICN, SLC-ICN, etc. supposedly having been either told to crew or announced at a company event... there's absolutely no mention of any of this on crew forums, or hungry click bait sites like TPG, which are generally the first to report rumors with substance.
WidebodyPTV wrote:Either DL's about to announce the largest long-haul expansion in company history -- during an era where's it's starved for domestic resources -- or imaginations are running at full speed on a.net...
The JFK-ICN/BOM rumor was mentioned awhile ago by a poster who regularly shares "rumors" and has an accuracy rate that's about on par with simply guessing. And for JFK-ICN, JFK-BOM, LAX-AKL, LAX-ICN, SLC-ICN, etc. supposedly having been either told to crew or announced at a company event... there's absolutely no mention of any of this on crew forums, or hungry click bait sites like TPG, which are generally the first to report rumors with substance.
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:There is realistically enough new widebodies coming online for next summer to maybe allow for 1-2 more route announcements.
BOM and AKL and more than 1 ICN flight seem like a complete moonshot in this era
New widebodies are going to allow essentially enabling full restoration of the TATL network, remove all on the non modded 763 to get off TATL and be reglegated to domestic, SA, and Hawaii.
CaptainLeo wrote:I guess we'll have to see. My friend told me there is some type of employee event happening in SLC next week and all the corporate leaders will be there. So that's why i'm assuming we may get some sort of announcement next week.
TW870 wrote:PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:There is realistically enough new widebodies coming online for next summer to maybe allow for 1-2 more route announcements.
BOM and AKL and more than 1 ICN flight seem like a complete moonshot in this era
New widebodies are going to allow essentially enabling full restoration of the TATL network, remove all on the non modded 763 to get off TATL and be reglegated to domestic, SA, and Hawaii.
I agree totally that BOM and AKL are extremely unlikely, with the Russian air space restrictions making JFK-BOM cost prohibitive and with the daunting UA/NZ competition in AKL.
One thing to watch, though, will be the exact language that gets ratified in whatever deal comes out of the DL-ALPA negotiations. The pilots have a lot of leverage, and rebalancing all of the JVs to better protect DL pilot jobs is top priority for the union. I can see multiple new ICN trips in that context - although I am extremely skeptical about SLC-ICN given the much stronger dynamics in LAX and SEA. But bottom line is those would not be moon shot new routes, but rather swapping some lift from KE to DL metal.
TW870 wrote:I can see multiple new ICN trips in that context - although I am extremely skeptical about SLC-ICN given the much stronger dynamics in LAX and SEA.
jplatts wrote:TW870 wrote:I can see multiple new ICN trips in that context - although I am extremely skeptical about SLC-ICN given the much stronger dynamics in LAX and SEA.
There are places such as BWI, CLT, OMA, PHL, and STL that have DL nonstop service to SLC but don't currently have DL nonstop service to LAX or SEA. DL adding SLC-ICN nonstop service would provide easier connectivity to ICN from some U.S. cities that don't have DL nonstop service to SEA or LAX.
tinpusher007 wrote:Dalmd88 wrote:tinpusher007 wrote:Every destination isn’t about feeding connections. Where would someone be flying through AKL to connect to anyway???
Pretty much all of Australia can connect through AKL. That is what Air New Zealand does now. They don't fill all those widebodies with just pax from their own country.
True, but if Im Delta and I already serve Australia via SYD and have an interline with Rex for connections there, why would I be looking for connections over AKL??? If we do launch AKL, it will likely be on the basis of taking US originating pax to NZ and bringing them back, as well as NZ'ers looking to come to the US.
TYWoolman wrote:tinpusher007 wrote:Dalmd88 wrote:Pretty much all of Australia can connect through AKL. That is what Air New Zealand does now. They don't fill all those widebodies with just pax from their own country.
True, but if Im Delta and I already serve Australia via SYD and have an interline with Rex for connections there, why would I be looking for connections over AKL??? If we do launch AKL, it will likely be on the basis of taking US originating pax to NZ and bringing them back, as well as NZ'ers looking to come to the US.
I would think New Zealand is a good scenic movie-shooting destination. If Delta wants to be LAX's #1 carrier, it needs to make friends with Hollywood, too.
kavok wrote:TW870 wrote:PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:There is realistically enough new widebodies coming online for next summer to maybe allow for 1-2 more route announcements.
BOM and AKL and more than 1 ICN flight seem like a complete moonshot in this era
New widebodies are going to allow essentially enabling full restoration of the TATL network, remove all on the non modded 763 to get off TATL and be reglegated to domestic, SA, and Hawaii.
I agree totally that BOM and AKL are extremely unlikely, with the Russian air space restrictions making JFK-BOM cost prohibitive and with the daunting UA/NZ competition in AKL.
One thing to watch, though, will be the exact language that gets ratified in whatever deal comes out of the DL-ALPA negotiations. The pilots have a lot of leverage, and rebalancing all of the JVs to better protect DL pilot jobs is top priority for the union. I can see multiple new ICN trips in that context - although I am extremely skeptical about SLC-ICN given the much stronger dynamics in LAX and SEA. But bottom line is those would not be moon shot new routes, but rather swapping some lift from KE to DL metal.
I could see that with the KE/DL JV. Note that LAX currently is home to a 359 base, with only two regular international routes being flown (SYD & HND) on 359s. Perhaps a DL 359 takes the place of a KE ICN-LAX flight, and instead KE launches a 787 to SLC?
WidebodyPTV wrote:TYWoolman wrote:tinpusher007 wrote:True, but if Im Delta and I already serve Australia via SYD and have an interline with Rex for connections there, why would I be looking for connections over AKL??? If we do launch AKL, it will likely be on the basis of taking US originating pax to NZ and bringing them back, as well as NZ'ers looking to come to the US.
I would think New Zealand is a good scenic movie-shooting destination. If Delta wants to be LAX's #1 carrier, it needs to make friends with Hollywood, too.
We're really grasping for straws now..
TW870 wrote:I agree totally that BOM and AKL are extremely unlikely, with the Russian air space restrictions making JFK-BOM cost prohibitive and with the daunting UA/NZ competition in AKL.
One thing to watch, though, will be the exact language that gets ratified in whatever deal comes out of the DL-ALPA negotiations. The pilots have a lot of leverage, and rebalancing all of the JVs to better protect DL pilot jobs is top priority for the union. I can see multiple new ICN trips in that context - although I am extremely skeptical about SLC-ICN given the much stronger dynamics in LAX and SEA. But bottom line is those would not be moon shot new routes, but rather swapping some lift from KE to DL metal.
BB78710 wrote:TW870 wrote:I agree totally that BOM and AKL are extremely unlikely, with the Russian air space restrictions making JFK-BOM cost prohibitive and with the daunting UA/NZ competition in AKL.
One thing to watch, though, will be the exact language that gets ratified in whatever deal comes out of the DL-ALPA negotiations. The pilots have a lot of leverage, and rebalancing all of the JVs to better protect DL pilot jobs is top priority for the union. I can see multiple new ICN trips in that context - although I am extremely skeptical about SLC-ICN given the much stronger dynamics in LAX and SEA. But bottom line is those would not be moon shot new routes, but rather swapping some lift from KE to DL metal.
I think DL pilots might want a bit more than one or two token flights to ICN from LAX and SEA. Delta pilots saw what happened at United when they renegotiated their JV agreements in 2017 which led to an unprecedented TATL expansion at United from summer of 2018 onward and brought more TATL flights onto United metal. Delta probably isn't looking to increase the size of its widebody fleet to match that of United's (I think United has at least 100 more widebodies than Delta in their fleet) so Delta pilots will never see the amount of international flying that United pilots do, but I do think Delta pilots are pushing hard to get more international flying on Delta metal which would require a few more widebody aircraft. The JV's work well for DL bottom line but it comes at the expense of DL pilots flying DL metal. Again I don't see DL widebody fleet growing to the point where it matches or even gets close to that of United's. DL doesn't even have 200 widebodies in their fleet even with the current A359s and A339NEO they have on the order books. They haven't needed a large widebody fleet as their JV partners do a lot more of the heavy lifting than DL does. I do think DL pilots and ALPA are pushing hard to have more international longhair flying on DL metal.
rjbesikof wrote:kavok wrote:TW870 wrote:
I agree totally that BOM and AKL are extremely unlikely, with the Russian air space restrictions making JFK-BOM cost prohibitive and with the daunting UA/NZ competition in AKL.
One thing to watch, though, will be the exact language that gets ratified in whatever deal comes out of the DL-ALPA negotiations. The pilots have a lot of leverage, and rebalancing all of the JVs to better protect DL pilot jobs is top priority for the union. I can see multiple new ICN trips in that context - although I am extremely skeptical about SLC-ICN given the much stronger dynamics in LAX and SEA. But bottom line is those would not be moon shot new routes, but rather swapping some lift from KE to DL metal.
I could see that with the KE/DL JV. Note that LAX currently is home to a 359 base, with only two regular international routes being flown (SYD & HND) on 359s. Perhaps a DL 359 takes the place of a KE ICN-LAX flight, and instead KE launches a 787 to SLC?
If this DL LAX/JFK-ICN rumor is true, I would assume DL would be taking over the KE 77W flights. FWIW, the B748 running the daytime KE LAX-ICN will be shifting to JFK and the A388 on KE's daytime JFK-ICN will shift over to LAX effective 2/1/2023. If DL were to help KE with these flights, would Korean have enough aircraft for SLC with fleet manuevering since a B77W would be too much plane for SLC-ICN?
https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/221208-ke1q23laxjfk
hl8208 wrote:KE will absolutely not reduce flying to their biggest and arguably most important US city to once daily on their own metal. In the summer of 2019, KE ran an additional 5x/weekly morning flight on the 77W. If DL LAX-ICN happens, it would have to be in addition to the existing KE flights, as is the case for LHR/CDG and AF/VS.
rjbesikof wrote:Delta resuming HAV effective 4/10/2023. 2x daily from MIA. Surprised they are not doing this from ATL.
https://news.delta.com/journey-old-hava ... pring-2023
rjbesikof wrote:Delta resuming HAV effective 4/10/2023. 2x daily from MIA. Surprised they are not doing this from ATL.
https://news.delta.com/journey-old-hava ... pring-2023
kavok wrote:The other big TPAC unknown is flights to China. PreCovid DL flew widebodies on ATL-PVG, DTW-PVG/PEK, LAX-PVG, SEA-PVG/PEK. All of those routes are currently either 1) not being flown, or 2) being flown at significantly reduced frequencies due to regulations.
And while nobody knows when those flights will be allowed to fully resume, once they are allowed again, DL will obviously need to find some birds to fly them.
kavok wrote:The other big TPAC unknown is flights to China. PreCovid DL flew widebodies on ATL-PVG, DTW-PVG/PEK, LAX-PVG, SEA-PVG/PEK. All of those routes are currently either 1) not being flown, or 2) being flown at significantly reduced frequencies due to regulations.
And while nobody knows when those flights will be allowed to fully resume, once they are allowed again, DL will obviously need to find some birds to fly them.
cv5880 wrote:Since 2019 the relationship between the US and China has changed. Would we even need as much capacity between the countries as we once had? Would traffic be business only?
jbs2886 wrote:cv5880 wrote:Since 2019 the relationship between the US and China has changed. Would we even need as much capacity between the countries as we once had? Would traffic be business only?
Not for a while probably, although DL quickly reinstated a lot of HND capacity. People also assume DL would need *more* planes for China routes, perhaps in part, but I think we will also see cuts on loss-making or marginal routes.
TW870 wrote:kavok wrote:The other big TPAC unknown is flights to China. PreCovid DL flew widebodies on ATL-PVG, DTW-PVG/PEK, LAX-PVG, SEA-PVG/PEK. All of those routes are currently either 1) not being flown, or 2) being flown at significantly reduced frequencies due to regulations.
And while nobody knows when those flights will be allowed to fully resume, once they are allowed again, DL will obviously need to find some birds to fly them.
Yes - to me the pilot contract question and the China question are the two big variables that could, depending on outcomes, lead to more longhaul over the medium term.
Also, it is important to note how busy Europe still is in December. I was just looking at A330 rotations on the -200, -300, and -900 fleet, and there is almost no domestic flying except for LAX/SEA-HNL. Granted, some -900s are down for the 2Ku install, but overall it is so different than last year when the -300 fleet was doing SAN, SFO, LAS, DEN, PHX every day out of ATL. Frequencies to the European hubs have stayed around later than usual, and seasonal trips like ATL-FCO and JFK-CPH (on the 763) are still operating in December, which I don't ever recall happening before. Bottom line is that the premium leisure demand for Europe, South Africa, and Australia is eating up a lot of the block hours that were lost to the ongoing China closure.
mesasurf wrote:Also within the potential international expansion rumor mill is that both SLC-CDG/AMS will be seeing upgauges and additional frequencies. The SLC-AMS additions might be coming from their JV partner KL. Also the SLC-LHR route might be getting dropped. It is still bleeding money. I’m sure if DL does drop it BA will come in and add it.
mesasurf wrote:Also within the potential international expansion rumor mill is that both SLC-CDG/AMS will be seeing upgauges and additional frequencies. The SLC-AMS additions might be coming from their JV partner KL. Also the SLC-LHR route might be getting dropped. It is still bleeding money. I’m sure if DL does drop it BA will come in and add it.
BoeingGuy wrote:mesasurf wrote:Also within the potential international expansion rumor mill is that both SLC-CDG/AMS will be seeing upgauges and additional frequencies. The SLC-AMS additions might be coming from their JV partner KL. Also the SLC-LHR route might be getting dropped. It is still bleeding money. I’m sure if DL does drop it BA will come in and add it.
KL already serves SLC-AMS. I wonder if AF will come to SLC as they do to MSP.
rjbesikof wrote:kavok wrote:The other big TPAC unknown is flights to China. PreCovid DL flew widebodies on ATL-PVG, DTW-PVG/PEK, LAX-PVG, SEA-PVG/PEK. All of those routes are currently either 1) not being flown, or 2) being flown at significantly reduced frequencies due to regulations.
And while nobody knows when those flights will be allowed to fully resume, once they are allowed again, DL will obviously need to find some birds to fly them.
Even without COVID, DL would not be able to fly ATL-PVG since it would need Russian airspace.
rjbesikof wrote:kavok wrote:The other big TPAC unknown is flights to China. PreCovid DL flew widebodies on ATL-PVG, DTW-PVG/PEK, LAX-PVG, SEA-PVG/PEK. All of those routes are currently either 1) not being flown, or 2) being flown at significantly reduced frequencies due to regulations.
And while nobody knows when those flights will be allowed to fully resume, once they are allowed again, DL will obviously need to find some birds to fly them.
Even without COVID, DL would not be able to fly ATL-PVG since it would need Russian airspace.
tjerome wrote:rjbesikof wrote:kavok wrote:The other big TPAC unknown is flights to China. PreCovid DL flew widebodies on ATL-PVG, DTW-PVG/PEK, LAX-PVG, SEA-PVG/PEK. All of those routes are currently either 1) not being flown, or 2) being flown at significantly reduced frequencies due to regulations.
And while nobody knows when those flights will be allowed to fully resume, once they are allowed again, DL will obviously need to find some birds to fly them.
Even without COVID, DL would not be able to fly ATL-PVG since it would need Russian airspace.
Delta.com says 359 range is 7275 miles.
ATL-PVG is 7659 miles.
AdEd wrote:tjerome wrote:rjbesikof wrote:
Even without COVID, DL would not be able to fly ATL-PVG since it would need Russian airspace.
Delta.com says 359 range is 7275 miles.
ATL-PVG is 7659 miles.
ATL-JNB is 8434 miles
Antoli0794 wrote:Interesting that DTW has more seats to HNL than MSP even though it restarted not long ago.
rainaviation2 wrote:Antoli0794 wrote:Interesting that DTW has more seats to HNL than MSP even though it restarted not long ago.
I have never really understood why MSP cannot handle, and/or why DL doesn't have more seats in the HNL market.
