777Mech wrote:

fun2fly wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

You've been insisting that DL must keep up with the Jones for quite awhile. DL didn't add the leisure-orientated capacity its peers did last year, DL didn't rack up the orders UA did, and status quo, I believe DL isn't interested in the 321XLR. We've seen a decline in long-haul DL 757 flying (even well before COVID), even as AA & UA double-down on it.

UA has "doubled down" sort of in the future with the 321XLR's. Currently, they are using life extension kits on 763's and 752's to capture the TATL surge to primary and many secondary destinations. Some might say their plan has worked as they claim to be the largest TATL carrier in 2022, a title DL held for many years. As you point out, DL took a different approach pushing traffic via AMS/CDG. We'll see in a few years how both worked out, but if the 321XLR's work, DL will be at a disadvantage from an order perspective due to lead time (unless they covert some existing spots). I'd find it difficult to believe the 321XLR isn't a CASM killer also.

So the burning question now is what does DL do once the 767 and 757s inevitably exit the fleet? Any tertiary cities in Europe would be a non-starter with the smallest widebody which would be the 332.

I see them continuing to just fly the trunk routes with A350s and 339s and letting AF/KL do the rest.

The first 787 order came 16 years after the 763ER entered service. Given that the 787 has now been in service for 11 years, let's hope either Boeing or Airbus will have a replacement option soon...

777Mech wrote:

So the burning question now is what does DL do once the 767 and 757s inevitably exit the fleet? Any tertiary cities in Europe would be a non-starter with the smallest widebody which would be the 332.

I see them continuing to just fly the trunk routes with A350s and 339s and letting AF/KL do the rest.

It's not a super urgent question for Delta. Their youngest 767 is just over 20 years old. IMHO their preferred solution would be a MoM/NMA style aircraft, they've said so several times in the past. So they can wait another year or two and see how the market develops. They could also acquire some young used 767s from LATAM in case any of their oldest 76W run into cycle or hours limits.

In addition, once the XLR is certified it should be easy to swap regular A321 orders to the XLR at relatively short notice. This gives DL the option to react quickly in case the XLR becomes a huge TATL success.

mxaxai wrote:

777Mech wrote:

So the burning question now is what does DL do once the 767 and 757s inevitably exit the fleet? Any tertiary cities in Europe would be a non-starter with the smallest widebody which would be the 332.

I see them continuing to just fly the trunk routes with A350s and 339s and letting AF/KL do the rest.

It's not a super urgent question for Delta. Their youngest 767 is just over 20 years old.

It's not a super-urgent question but they're going to want to have an answer in 2-3 years, for deliveries ~2028-2032. DL recently(?) went on record that minimum economic fleet count for widebodies was 40 frames. If that's their thinking, the number is even bigger for narrowbodies (which don't have the same revenue potential per frame). IMHO, DL isn't going to keep a pilot group (and all the parts) for the ten youngest 757s, the ten youngest 753s, and ten youngest 767s. I predict they'll go from ~thirty in that combined group to zero pretty quickly. I'll stick my neck out and say they will do it before 1/1/2031. Can Boeing deliver an NMA in quantity before then?

Running XXX-AMS/CDG-YYY against somebody's non-stop XXX-YYY is a recipe for lousy yields. (See history of NW TATL ops, 2000-2008, when the entirety of NW's TATL network was LON, CDG, AMS, FRA and seasonal FCO.) To be business-traveler competitive in BOS and NYC, DL will need a TATL-capable aircraft smaller than the 333 - and the economics of 332s aren't great.

MIflyer12 wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

777Mech wrote:

So the burning question now is what does DL do once the 767 and 757s inevitably exit the fleet? Any tertiary cities in Europe would be a non-starter with the smallest widebody which would be the 332.

I see them continuing to just fly the trunk routes with A350s and 339s and letting AF/KL do the rest.

It's not a super urgent question for Delta. Their youngest 767 is just over 20 years old.

It's not a super-urgent question but they're going to want to have an answer in 2-3 years, for deliveries ~2028-2032. DL recently(?) went on record that minimum economic fleet count for widebodies was 40 frames. If that's their thinking, the number is even bigger for narrowbodies (which don't have the same revenue potential per frame). IMHO, DL isn't going to keep a pilot group (and all the parts) for the ten youngest 757s, the ten youngest 753s, and ten youngest 767s. I predict they'll go from ~thirty in that combined group to zero pretty quickly. I'll stick my neck out and say they will do it before 1/1/2031. Can Boeing deliver an NMA in quantity before then?

Running XXX-AMS/CDG-YYY against somebody's non-stop XXX-YYY is a recipe for lousy yields. (See history of NW TATL ops, 2000-2008, when the entirety of NW's TATL network was LON, CDG, AMS, FRA and seasonal FCO.) To be business-traveler competitive in BOS and NYC, DL will need a TATL-capable aircraft smaller than the 333 - and the economics of 332s aren't great.

...except that DL has 44 B752/B753 built in the early 2000s, as were all 21 B764. By the end next year, DL will have 30+ A320 that are 30yo. Plenty of aircraft for DL not to rush a replacement...

There are several things to consider and "unpack" based on some of the comments mentioned above:

Here are my thoughts.....feel free to shoot a cannon through them, in no particular order:

1) DL is not obtaining any more second-hand 763s. No not happening, end of story.

2) Yes, DL has said they do not like the labor costs of narrowbody TATL flying

3) Just because the 763 is what they use now, its not necessarily the ideal aircraft. Its what they have and they will get the full useable life out of it.
I would be really interested to see the trip cost between a B763 vs A333 vs. A339 on a "typical" TATL route.

4) DL may not be interested "now" in in the A321XLR...GTFNGWTFIDKLOL version because they are holding out until the last minute possible to see if a clean sheet MoM aircraft actually comes to fruition.

5) DL has bigger fish to fry currently with its order book of A321NEOs........The first "tranche" of NEOS is going replace longer domestic 757 routes along with selective upgauging/swapping of B739 & A321CEO on longer routes from "competitive markets" like SEA and BOS. Then its going to take over 75H ETOPS Hawaii flying sometime in late 2023. Then they are going to be used to replace the 75S TransCon flying. Not to mention beyond just increasingly replacing and/or upgauging longer domestic B738/B739/A320/A321CEO & 757 routes.

6) Due to the strength of DL's TATL JVs with AF/KL and VS they have many ways to optimize connecting flows and gauge to primary, secondary, and tertiary cities in both North American and Europe. Almost every major city in the United States has a DL/AF/KL flight to CDG or AMS. Those hubs connect to almost every city/region in Europe. It may be more advantageous to aggregate traffic to CDG/AMS using widebodies versus connecting them over JFK or BOS onto A321XLR flights into tertiary Europe destinations. UA has the EWR hub that allow them to do more unique things and fly (seasonally) to more exotic leisure destinations in Europe. DL has likely determined for now its not worth using their JFK resource to go after such traffic and connecting flows.

7) ATL is such a powerhouse and geographically, A321XLRs can't reach anything meaningful. DTW doesn't have the O&D or connection density to make sense at this time.

8) There is more more revenue upside potential on a 4-class widebody with D1, Premium Select, Comfort+, and Coach than on a narrowbody.

WidebodyPTV wrote:

...except that DL has 44 B752/B753 built in the early 2000s, as were all 21 B764.

Yep. And I predict those types will substantially be gone by 1/1/2031. Viability of aircraft long-term is always about fuel prices.* I'm guessing DL is having a long, hard fleet review. (See, for example, how the sustained fuel price climb 2005 into 2008 killed off so many NW DC-9s.)

https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ ... months=360

* unless you've bought into a limited-production type like 717 and MD-90

Anybody know what LH is getting for utilization of its A340-300 fleet these days, compared to three years ago?

I'm guessing DL acquired the last-built 757s and last-built 739s because it has a lower forecast of medium to long-term fuel prices than other big carriers. NW looked brilliant with its low CapEx refurbs of DC-9 interiors (begun in 1994 when Jet A was $0.50/gal) but not so smart in 2008 when fuel hit $3.89. A plan built on low fuel price forecasts to justify delaying purchases of current-gen aircraft is inherently risky.

MIflyer12 wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

777Mech wrote:

. I predict they'll go from ~thirty in that combined group to zero pretty quickly. I'll stick my neck out and say they will do it before 1/1/2031. Can Boeing deliver an NMA in quantity before then?

Boeing hasn't even shown it can deliver the Max-10 and 777-X by 2031.

MIflyer12 wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

...except that DL has 44 B752/B753 built in the early 2000s, as were all 21 B764.

Yep. And I predict those types will substantially be gone by 1/1/2031. Viability of aircraft long-term is always about fuel prices.* I'm guessing DL is having a long, hard fleet review. (See, for example, how the sustained fuel price climb 2005 into 2008 killed off so many NW DC-9s.)

https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ ... months=360

* unless you've bought into a limited-production type like 717 and MD-90

Anybody know what LH is getting for utilization of its A340-300 fleet these days, compared to three years ago?

I'm guessing DL acquired the last-built 757s and last-built 739s because it has a lower forecast of medium to long-term fuel prices than other big carriers. NW looked brilliant with its low CapEx refurbs of DC-9 interiors (begun in 1994 when Jet A was $0.50/gal) but not so smart in 2008 when fuel hit $3.89. A plan built on low fuel price forecasts to justify delaying purchases of current-gen aircraft is inherently risky.

Fallacy. NW double-downed on the DC-9 just a couple years before the Great Recession, when it rejected the leases of oodles of brand new A319 during its bankruptcy. It then planned for an E90/E95 order to replace the DC-9, but then the Great Recession hit, and the large number of CR9 / E75 that were being delivered -- initially to restore capacity lost with the rejection of the ARJ -- were used as de facto DC-9 replacements. Fuel played a role, but so did the number of aircraft coming into the fleet.

That said, I agree that DL's decision to stockpile late model NG & CEO was based upon (a) low(er) fuel projections and (b) more limited service life, with the idea that a replacement 737/320 would be available within 10 years or so. If fuel prices remain high long-term, maybe DL's plans will change, but I don't think anybody can predict that. In the late 2000s, most users seemed to believe that high fuel prices would be the norm indefinitely, and that didn't happen.

Any thoughts about reinstating LAX-AMS with the A333/A339 since KL is currently operating only one daily flight (78K) while AF is generally operating 3x daily LAX-CDG (one originates in PPT on certain days with JWY 77E versus the 77W PJWY solely on LAX-CDG. I don’t see DL’s CDG returning with the AF capacity already in Place & VS operating LAX-LHR up to 3 daily with B789/B789/A35K or B789/A35K.

I suppose DL is content with codesharing this route at the moment. Pre-Covid this is used to be a seasonal only operating during summer

FlyingHonu001 wrote:

I suppose DL is content with codesharing this route at the moment. Pre-Covid this is used to be a seasonal only operating during summer

It’s not code-sharing. It’s a JV route. The KLM route is a DL route. It shares costs and revenue.

Yet another schedule reduction on the way likely this weekend. Not demand based whatsoever. Crew shortages are the culprit. Schedule too ambitious for the crew hours available starting in July, I believe it is. Gotta love it, or not, if you as a customer are caught up in it every single time they've done this in 2022. That would be me. Unlucky.

AAFlyGuy

laca773 wrote:

Any thoughts about reinstating LAX-AMS with the A333/A339 since KL is currently operating only one daily flight (78K).

KLM is 2x daily on LAX-AMS in Summer 2022, so adding DL metal would bring it to 3x daily and that has proven too much capacity in 2018/2019.

- LAX 13:55 - AMS 09:10 KL602/DL9468 781 daily
- LAX 16:55 - AMS 12:20 KL604/DL9209 772 daily

WidebodyPTV wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

...except that DL has 44 B752/B753 built in the early 2000s, as were all 21 B764.

Yep. And I predict those types will substantially be gone by 1/1/2031. Viability of aircraft long-term is always about fuel prices.* I'm guessing DL is having a long, hard fleet review. (See, for example, how the sustained fuel price climb 2005 into 2008 killed off so many NW DC-9s.)

https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/ ... months=360

* unless you've bought into a limited-production type like 717 and MD-90

Anybody know what LH is getting for utilization of its A340-300 fleet these days, compared to three years ago?

I'm guessing DL acquired the last-built 757s and last-built 739s because it has a lower forecast of medium to long-term fuel prices than other big carriers. NW looked brilliant with its low CapEx refurbs of DC-9 interiors (begun in 1994 when Jet A was $0.50/gal) but not so smart in 2008 when fuel hit $3.89. A plan built on low fuel price forecasts to justify delaying purchases of current-gen aircraft is inherently risky.

Fallacy. NW double-downed on the DC-9 just a couple years before the Great Recession, when it rejected the leases of oodles of brand new A319 during its bankruptcy. It then planned for an E90/E95 order to replace the DC-9, but then the Great Recession hit, and the large number of CR9 / E75 that were being delivered -- initially to restore capacity lost with the rejection of the ARJ -- were used as de facto DC-9 replacements. Fuel played a role, but so did the number of aircraft coming into the fleet.

So you're saying it was smart to be flying DC-9s when fuel was $3.75/gallon? Much of that sustained 2005-2008 fuel spike was a period NW spent in Ch 11. Checchi and labor issues were among reasons NW had an old, inefficient fleet into the early 2000s, and then the fuel spike meant they had even less free cash flow to update it. Newco never got the size aircraft proposed, nor a third of the count -- and that left NW with DC-9s even longer.

https://www.reutersevents.com/travel/ar ... r-cities-i

It really supports my point: a carrier hopes for low fuel prices to rationalize flying old/inefficient aircraft (the classic 'But they're paid for!' argument), and then when fuel prices shoot up they don't have the earnings to update the fleet.

The 'But they're paid for!' argument can work when you can afford to park a bunch of aircraft mid-week or seasonally and live with low avg utilization over the year but that's very expensive when those aircraft types have a separate pilot labor pool.

United has the oldest fleet among the U.S. majors, a Fitch B+ credit rating (just two notches from junk), a LOT of new planes on order, and for the past decade has had sort of mid-industry margins. It's going to be interesting to watch UA's free cash flow for the next ~six years.

The Outlook revision is driven by higher jet fuel prices and increased downside risks presented by inflationary pressures and related economic impacts. These impacts along with United's heavy planned capital spending over the next several years, and remaining uncertainties around traffic recovery related to COVID have increased the risks to United's credit profile.

https://www.fitchratings.com/research/c ... 18-03-2022

AAflyguy wrote:

Yet another schedule reduction on the way likely this weekend. Not demand based whatsoever. Crew shortages are the culprit. Schedule too ambitious for the crew hours available starting in July, I believe it is. Gotta love it, or not, if you as a customer are caught up in it every single time they've done this in 2022. That would be me. Unlucky.

AAFlyGuy

Evidence or supporting information?

Jeremy

SESGDL wrote:

AAflyguy wrote:

Yet another schedule reduction on the way likely this weekend. Not demand based whatsoever. Crew shortages are the culprit. Schedule too ambitious for the crew hours available starting in July, I believe it is. Gotta love it, or not, if you as a customer are caught up in it every single time they've done this in 2022. That would be me. Unlucky.

AAFlyGuy

Evidence or supporting information?

Jeremy

When you check flightaware on a Friday - Sunday for cancelled flights, that’s your evidence. It’s only May. I’m optimistic about June schedule, but word on the street is, Delta should be fine by July with the appropriate staffing with pilots and flight attendants.

Deltran757 wrote:

SESGDL wrote:

AAflyguy wrote:

Yet another schedule reduction on the way likely this weekend. Not demand based whatsoever. Crew shortages are the culprit. Schedule too ambitious for the crew hours available starting in July, I believe it is. Gotta love it, or not, if you as a customer are caught up in it every single time they've done this in 2022. That would be me. Unlucky.

AAFlyGuy

Evidence or supporting information?

Jeremy

When you check flightaware on a Friday - Sunday for cancelled flights, that’s your evidence. It’s only May. I’m optimistic about June schedule, but word on the street is, Delta should be fine by July with the appropriate staffing with pilots and flight attendants.

How does that indicate there’s a July schedule reduction coming? What am I missing?

Jeremy

SESGDL wrote:

Deltran757 wrote:

SESGDL wrote:

Evidence or supporting information?

Jeremy

When you check flightaware on a Friday - Sunday for cancelled flights, that’s your evidence. It’s only May. I’m optimistic about June schedule, but word on the street is, Delta should be fine by July with the appropriate staffing with pilots and flight attendants.

How does that indicate there’s a July schedule reduction coming? What am I missing?

Jeremy

Yeah, not getting that either.

Deltran757 wrote:

SESGDL wrote:

AAflyguy wrote:

Yet another schedule reduction on the way likely this weekend. Not demand based whatsoever. Crew shortages are the culprit. Schedule too ambitious for the crew hours available starting in July, I believe it is. Gotta love it, or not, if you as a customer are caught up in it every single time they've done this in 2022. That would be me. Unlucky.

AAFlyGuy

Evidence or supporting information?

Jeremy

When you check flightaware on a Friday - Sunday for cancelled flights, that’s your evidence. It’s only May. I’m optimistic about June schedule, but word on the street is, Delta should be fine by July with the appropriate staffing with pilots and flight attendants.

I'm not checking flightaware as evidence of anything. It's based on information shared with me directly by DL. Perhaps it won't be a huge downward shift but it absolutely will have some impact on what DL currently has for sale in its summer schedule. It will directly impact me multiple times as a customer. But, hopefully I'm in the minority.

AAflyguy wrote:

Deltran757 wrote:

SESGDL wrote:

Evidence or supporting information?

Jeremy

When you check flightaware on a Friday - Sunday for cancelled flights, that’s your evidence. It’s only May. I’m optimistic about June schedule, but word on the street is, Delta should be fine by July with the appropriate staffing with pilots and flight attendants.

I'm not checking flightaware as evidence of anything. It's based on information shared with me directly by DL. Perhaps it won't be a huge downward shift but it absolutely will have some impact on what DL currently has for sale in its summer schedule. It will directly impact me multiple times as a customer. But, hopefully I'm in the minority.

So based on your future bookings, and based on information shared with you directly by DL, what are these cities/city pairings etc that will be somewhat impacted with the summer schedule?

factsonly wrote:

laca773 wrote:

Any thoughts about reinstating LAX-AMS with the A333/A339 since KL is currently operating only one daily flight (78K).

KLM is 2x daily on LAX-AMS in Summer 2022, so adding DL metal would bring it to 3x daily and that has proven too much capacity in 2018/2019.

- LAX 13:55 - AMS 09:10 KL602/DL9468 781 daily
- LAX 16:55 - AMS 12:20 KL604/DL9209 772 daily

Thank you for the information. Makes sense with the 2x daily flights.

AAflyguy wrote:

Deltran757 wrote:

SESGDL wrote:

Evidence or supporting information?

Jeremy

When you check flightaware on a Friday - Sunday for cancelled flights, that’s your evidence. It’s only May. I’m optimistic about June schedule, but word on the street is, Delta should be fine by July with the appropriate staffing with pilots and flight attendants.

I'm not checking flightaware as evidence of anything. It's based on information shared with me directly by DL. Perhaps it won't be a huge downward shift but it absolutely will have some impact on what DL currently has for sale in its summer schedule. It will directly impact me multiple times as a customer. But, hopefully I'm in the minority.

There were no mention of schedule reductions noted in the employee Q2 townhall conducted this week. Not sure where you're getting your info.

laca773 wrote:

Any thoughts about reinstating LAX-AMS with the A333/A339 since KL is currently operating only one daily flight (78K) while AF is generally operating 3x daily LAX-CDG (one originates in PPT on certain days with JWY 77E versus the 77W PJWY solely on LAX-CDG. I don’t see DL’s CDG returning with the AF capacity already in Place & VS operating LAX-LHR up to 3 daily with B789/B789/A35K or B789/A35K.

I agree, we will probably not see DL metal on LAX-CDG at least until Summer 2023.
AF is operating 4 flights a day on CDG-LAX on some days of the week with the addition of an early flight on the route AF70 (CDG-LAX) and AF73 (LAX-CDG).

777Mech wrote:

AAflyguy wrote:

Deltran757 wrote:

When you check flightaware on a Friday - Sunday for cancelled flights, that’s your evidence. It’s only May. I’m optimistic about June schedule, but word on the street is, Delta should be fine by July with the appropriate staffing with pilots and flight attendants.

I'm not checking flightaware as evidence of anything. It's based on information shared with me directly by DL. Perhaps it won't be a huge downward shift but it absolutely will have some impact on what DL currently has for sale in its summer schedule. It will directly impact me multiple times as a customer. But, hopefully I'm in the minority.

There were no mention of schedule reductions noted in the employee Q2 townhall conducted this week. Not sure where you're getting your info.

Looks like Delta has cancelled 5% of its schedule today so far as of 10am Eastern Daylight Time.

https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today

Looks like a lot of cancels out of the 320 and 73N pilot groups. The widebodies look much better. With a lot of the 332 and 333 fleet swapping off of domestic and over to international, they are scheduling the narrowbodies much tighter. I am guessing the training backlog on the 320 and 73N is leaving them short crew to cover some of these block hours.

MIflyer12 wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

777Mech wrote:

So the burning question now is what does DL do once the 767 and 757s inevitably exit the fleet? Any tertiary cities in Europe would be a non-starter with the smallest widebody which would be the 332.

I see them continuing to just fly the trunk routes with A350s and 339s and letting AF/KL do the rest.

It's not a super urgent question for Delta. Their youngest 767 is just over 20 years old.

It's not a super-urgent question but they're going to want to have an answer in 2-3 years, for deliveries ~2028-2032. DL recently(?) went on record that minimum economic fleet count for widebodies was 40 frames. If that's their thinking, the number is even bigger for narrowbodies (which don't have the same revenue potential per frame). IMHO, DL isn't going to keep a pilot group (and all the parts) for the ten youngest 757s, the ten youngest 753s, and ten youngest 767s. I predict they'll go from ~thirty in that combined group to zero pretty quickly. I'll stick my neck out and say they will do it before 1/1/2031. Can Boeing deliver an NMA in quantity before then?

Running XXX-AMS/CDG-YYY against somebody's non-stop XXX-YYY is a recipe for lousy yields. (See history of NW TATL ops, 2000-2008, when the entirety of NW's TATL network was LON, CDG, AMS, FRA and seasonal FCO.) To be business-traveler competitive in BOS and NYC, DL will need a TATL-capable aircraft smaller than the 333 - and the economics of 332s aren't great.

The economics of the 332 aren't great but they should pretty soon have a low price and are comparable in capacity with premium select to a 763 without it. I wonder if Delta just buys all the 339's in the world and do what they did to the 717 and md-90 with it

TW870 wrote:

777Mech wrote:

AAflyguy wrote:

I'm not checking flightaware as evidence of anything. It's based on information shared with me directly by DL. Perhaps it won't be a huge downward shift but it absolutely will have some impact on what DL currently has for sale in its summer schedule. It will directly impact me multiple times as a customer. But, hopefully I'm in the minority.

There were no mention of schedule reductions noted in the employee Q2 townhall conducted this week. Not sure where you're getting your info.

Looks like Delta has cancelled 5% of its schedule today so far as of 10am Eastern Daylight Time.

https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today

Looks like a lot of cancels out of the 320 and 73N pilot groups. The widebodies look much better. With a lot of the 332 and 333 fleet swapping off of domestic and over to international, they are scheduling the narrowbodies much tighter. I am guessing the training backlog on the 320 and 73N is leaving them short crew to cover some of these block hours.

They have an overly aggressive schedule that isn’t aligned with available pilot staffing. This happened two weeks ago over Mother’s Day weekend.

Even at “normal” staffing, DL relies upon a certain percentage of “overtime” flying by pilots either through voluntary or mandatory options as spelled out in the contract. Pilots can pick up extra trips at overtime pay and make a lot of extra $$$$$ if they desire. This helps cover a some of the “surge capacity” on peak days.

A few factors are at play:
1) training backlog at getting new hires through training and sims
2) while some pilots like picking up extra trips, they will do so when they want. It’s spring time with nice weather and it’s celebration / life milestone / graduation/ wedding season. I guarantee there are less pilots willing to voluntarily pick up extra flying on their coveted weekend off this time of the year versus day an easy out and back ATL-DEN day trip on a random Tuesday.
3) crew scheduling is under staffed and had a lot of turnover during the pandemic
4) covid is back in certain regions particularly the northeast and Midwest so there are likely more calloff due to Covid than last month

Memorial weekend has all the ingredients for an operational meltdown, especially if any weather hits ATL.

Supposedly they are trying to ramp of flying on fleet types that have better staffing levels for June and July.

717s are going to be flown hard this summer. They are running them 6-7 segments/day covering the shortage at the regionals and off the other narrow body fleets

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Memorial weekend has all the ingredients for an operational meltdown, especially if any weather hits ATL.

Supposedly they are trying to ramp of flying on fleet types that have better staffing levels for June and July.

717s are going to be flown hard this summer. They are running them 6-7 segments/day covering the shortage at the regionals and off the other narrow body fleets

Yeah I am surprised how aggressive they are being with aircraft scheduling on the narrow bodies. Just looking at the new 321Ns, each airplane does a transcon turn on BOS-SFO each day. That gives one of them down time from arrival from the redeye until a 5pm departure out of BOS. Rather than letting the jet sit at BOS to cover irregularities, they have it turn to ATL and back, basically keeping both planes moving 24 hours a day with only 70 minute turns. It's great to see these super efficient airplanes being used like that, but it leaves you vulnerable to irregularities. My guess is they have spare 320 time at BOS that they could use to cover a 321N going tech, but when you couple that with minimum pilot staffing, things can get ugly quick.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

717s are going to be flown hard this summer. They are running them 6-7 segments/day covering the shortage at the regionals and off the other narrow body fleets

What's the current retirement date for the 717s?

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

717s are going to be flown hard this summer. They are running them 6-7 segments/day covering the shortage at the regionals and off the other narrow body fleets

What's the current retirement date for the 717s?

And for SEA and SLC?

sea13 wrote:

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

717s are going to be flown hard this summer. They are running them 6-7 segments/day covering the shortage at the regionals and off the other narrow body fleets

What's the current retirement date for the 717s?

And for SEA and SLC?

Huh?

MIflyer12 wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

He also sees no need for A321XLR, since DL's routes all have enough demand to fill widebodies even in winter.

This just suggests DL isn't interested in adding tertiary TATL routes on its own metal. Not just HAM, PSA and the like, but from PIT/CVG/IND... too.

mxaxai wrote:

No new destinations in Germany, Austria or Switzerland are planned (except eventually resuming service to the listed airports).

And then he just says it out loud.

He's not the only exec weighing in on an aircraft purchase decision, and legacy U.S. carriers that own aircraft have to play the long game.

Unbelievable that they still see no potential in serving HAM, the 7th largest City in the European Union.

Also I dont think that they will never order the XLR, they are just in no hurry, they have more than enough A321neo Delivery Slots over the next years. They can comfortably wait and see how the XLR works in real life.
But in the midterm they cannot afford to not have them, AA, UA and later probably B6 as will serve many smaller Airports, just like HAM and this will cost DL passengers that fly through AMS/CDG today. A few from here, a few from there, this adds up pretty fast.
And I dont think they can be competitive with an A330-200 or 767-400 in most of these markets yearround.

DLHAM wrote:

MIflyer12 wrote:

mxaxai wrote:

He also sees no need for A321XLR, since DL's routes all have enough demand to fill widebodies even in winter.

This just suggests DL isn't interested in adding tertiary TATL routes on its own metal. Not just HAM, PSA and the like, but from PIT/CVG/IND... too.

mxaxai wrote:

No new destinations in Germany, Austria or Switzerland are planned (except eventually resuming service to the listed airports).

And then he just says it out loud.

He's not the only exec weighing in on an aircraft purchase decision, and legacy U.S. carriers that own aircraft have to play the long game.

Unbelievable that they still see no potential in serving HAM, the 7th largest City in the European Union.

Also I dont think that they will never order the XLR, they are just in no hurry, they have more than enough A321neo Delivery Slots over the next years. They can comfortably wait and see how the XLR works in real life.
But in the midterm they cannot afford to not have them, AA, UA and later probably B6 as will serve many smaller Airports, just like HAM and this will cost DL passengers that fly through AMS/CDG today. A few from here, a few from there, this adds up pretty fast.
And I dont think they can be competitive with an A330-200 or 767-400 in most of these markets yearround.

Hypothetically, let’s say DL had the XLR. Which US airport would they fly out of?
-JFK is slot constrained, and of the slots DL does have, they can make more money using the larger gauge frames to other destinations.
-BOS? Connecting in BOS from domestic to international is an awful experience. It also isn’t great going Int’l to Domestic either if you have a check bag that is heavy to move. DL is better off focusing on BOS O&D and hoping word doesn’t get out how awful the connection experience is there.
-DTW? Not a chance. Any DTW flight to secondary Europe is cannibalizing ATL, JFK, and BOS operations.
-ATL? Maybe… but ATL to Europe is a very long time to be cooped up in a narrowbody, even if the flight could make it.

kavok wrote:

Hypothetically, let’s say DL had the XLR. Which US airport would they fly out of?
-JFK is slot constrained, and of the slots DL does have, they can make more money using the larger gauge frames to other destinations.

I’m not sure if DL will go for the XLR, leaning towards no, but I don’t think this is as big of a limitation for JFK as one may think. DL still has plenty of RJ capacity and can leverage LGA for O&D increase to focus on connections. Sure, the slots DL could use are not prime times, but it can use JFK for narrowbody TATL.

TW870 wrote:

777Mech wrote:

AAflyguy wrote:

I'm not checking flightaware as evidence of anything. It's based on information shared with me directly by DL. Perhaps it won't be a huge downward shift but it absolutely will have some impact on what DL currently has for sale in its summer schedule. It will directly impact me multiple times as a customer. But, hopefully I'm in the minority.

There were no mention of schedule reductions noted in the employee Q2 townhall conducted this week. Not sure where you're getting your info.

Looks like Delta has cancelled 5% of its schedule today so far as of 10am Eastern Daylight Time.

https://flightaware.com/live/cancelled/today

Looks like a lot of cancels out of the 320 and 73N pilot groups. The widebodies look much better. With a lot of the 332 and 333 fleet swapping off of domestic and over to international, they are scheduling the narrowbodies much tighter. I am guessing the training backlog on the 320 and 73N is leaving them short crew to cover some of these block hours.

Most of east coast was dealing with severe t storms yesterday afternoon and evening after much of the midwest on Sat.

Does anyone know if DL has decided to hold off on restarting COS-ATL. I flew DL out of DEN last week for the first time in a couple years and was very impressed. I’m PlatinumPro on AA but after my last trip am very inclined to switch to DL since COS was returning. But now it isn’t bookable. It was supposed to restart August 8.

kavok wrote:

-ATL? Maybe… but ATL to Europe is a very long time to be cooped up in a narrowbody, even if the flight could make it.

Range will be the bigger issue. Shorter TATL to the UK or Spain should be possible from ATL but ATL-HAM is just under 4000nm, STR and BER are slightly further. Yes, Airbus claims that the XLR has up to 4700nm range but with cargo and winter winds, it'll struggle. This is a point where DL's reliance on their ATL hub may be disadvantageous. I think UA can utilize EWR and the XLR better to serve secondary TATL.

mxaxai wrote:

This is a point where DL's reliance on their ATL hub may be disadvantageous. I think UA can utilize EWR and the XLR better to serve secondary TATL.

ATL hasn’t been DL’s primary hub for TATL now for quite a few years already; JFK has more nonstops and more destinations in Europe than ATL: MUC is currently the only one served from ATL and not JFK, whereas EDI, BRU, ZRH, NCE, LIS, CPH, ARN, KEF, PRG are served from JFK only.

Looks like MCO-MIA has been loaded at 2x daily starting in October, using A319s

At Chicago O'Hare, the schedule of Delta's move from T-2 to T-5 and the status of the new Sky Club in T-5 was posted earlier today n the Chicago Aviation thread.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468509&start=450
Thought the discussion might be of interest for readers here.

M gates are in Terminal 5 at O'Hare. Delta currently resides in Terminal 2, E gates. Gates M1 through 7 are currently in use by WN and F9 primarily.

jcwr56 wrote:

yeogeo wrote:

jcwr56 wrote:

M1-M2 close for Delta renovations 6/1

M3-6 will close for Delta renovations in July

M7 will close for Delta renovations in August

Delta will RON arrivals on 9/9 with full operations starting on 9/10

Can you give us any word on the new Delta Sky Club in T-5?
[jcwr's answer]: Moving right along..

Can we assume it'll be open by 10 September?
[jcwr's answer] yes

Is it at gate level or a space above?
[jcwr's answer] It's at gate level, if you look at the new built out headhouse section it's to the left of M8/M9.

Will it have a view of the field?
[jcwr's answer] It will have views of M7, M8, M9 and when not occupied by aircraft views towards T3.

I assume it will be more spacious than the one in T-2 E gates.
[jcwr's answer] I believe it's roughly 22,000 sq ft, the largest non-hub lounge within their network.

DL has already completely dropped CVG-SFO nonstop service and pushed back the resumption of CVG-ORD/DFW nonstop service to 4/10/2023.

Is DL likely to drop CVG-ORD/DFW nonstop service with DL having continued to push back the resumption date of these two routes and with DL having been off of these 2 routes for more than 2 years, or will DL likely resume CVG-ORD/DFW nonstop service on 4/10/2023?

Effective today, Delta is upgauging DL101/110 ATL-EZE-ATL back to the 764, 5x w. Barring no further changes, on 31OCT the flight goes back to its usual daily operation, right in time for peak travel season in Argentina.

jplatts wrote:

DL has already completely dropped CVG-SFO nonstop service and pushed back the resumption of CVG-ORD/DFW nonstop service to 4/10/2023.

Is DL likely to drop CVG-ORD/DFW nonstop service with DL having continued to push back the resumption date of these two routes and with DL having been off of these 2 routes for more than 2 years, or will DL likely resume CVG-ORD/DFW nonstop service on 4/10/2023?

Unless staffing situation at regionals begins to improve, it's hard to imagine these routes being restarted. Staffing issues is resulting in a significant number of destinations with regional service out of DTW going down to one daily flight as of July schedule which doesn't seem to be very sustainable.

OKCDCA wrote:

ATL-COS returning daily on August 8 with an A320. Been waiting a long time for this one to come back.

Interesting to see how this flight does.

Kden95 wrote:

OKCDCA wrote:

ATL-COS returning daily on August 8 with an A320. Been waiting a long time for this one to come back.

Interesting to see how this flight does.

It's no longer bookable so I guess they've decided to push it. I've gone out to 2023 looking for it and can't find it. Very dissapointing.

I work at KCOS as a fueler and was told it’s no longer happening.

I’m surprised this isn’t mentioned.
Delta will proactively reduce about 100 flights a day.
https://www.cnn.com/travel/amp/delta-ai ... index.html

This is the official press release that just came out this morning:
https://news.delta.com/flying-delta-sum ... d-how-prep

Here’s the memo from Allison Ausband and John Laughter on the cuts:

To: Delta Employees Worldwide

Last month we shared with you a series of actions and investments we are taking to improve and restore operational reliability for our customers and drive greater consistency and predictablity for you. This weekend marks the official start to our busiest travel season, and while we prepare to deliver on our brand promise, we do so having experienced very difficult IROPs over the last several weeks. We know our recovery continues to be challenging and it
isn't reflective of the service we are known for. That's why we plan to reduce fights in the coming days; weeks, and in our July and August schedules by a few percentage points to better support you and our customers.

A Changing Environment

Heading into May, our growth plans were achievable and within capacity planning based on historical staffing models, crew availability, training throughput, hiring, and past fleet productivity. More than any time in our history, however, the various factors currently impacting our operation - from wealher and air traffic control, vendor staffing to higher-than-
planned unscheduled absences in some work groups (some due to COVID) - are resulting in an operation that isn't consistently up to the standards Dolla has set for the industry in recent
years. Our recent performance clearly shows these factors go beyond the assumptions of our plan and we will take action to address this imbalance.

When pilot resources become limited, the impact to the operation is greater. That's because each pilot's extensive training and qualifications restrict them to a single seat on a specific fleet; As a data point, March set an all-time training record with 510 pilots completing full qualifications in a new seat, and Apnil exceeded that with 540 completions. Weather, maintenance or ATC delays reduce our pilot availability, and lengthen our IROP recovery
efforts at a time when the overali resiliency of the operation is älready tested. Many pilots are stepping in to fly overtime in an effort to offset these challenges but we need to take additional steps to support you and our customers.

Adjusting What We Can Control

Delta has always risen to the challenge in the face of unpredictability, and we're going to do so again as we've done for the last two years and throughout our history. We “adapt and pivot" and we have control over how much we fly, so we'll be implementing these steps in the coming days and weeks - keeping safety as out number one value, as always

Reducing domestic planned aircraft hours in the July schedule by several
percentage points to create more buffer in the system and improve
operational reliability for our customers and you. This reduction in hours
will also extend to August but no market exits are planned.

Additionally, we'll be focusing on nearer term adjustments to relleve
pressure by proactively thinning the schedule over Memorial Day and
through the balance of June; The resulting cancellations will be
communicated to impacted employees and customers in a proactive way to
minimize close-in rebooking pressure on Res and ACS.

Last month we shared actions we planned to take to improve our resiliency,
and many of these initiatives (including depeaking the Atlanta hub daily
schedule, earlier boarding, boarding pay, and buffers in crew rotations) will
take effect in just a few days

Of course, our hiring focus continues as we onboard several hundred new
frontline employees weekly.

Positive Outcomes Lie Ahead

Recovering revenue quickly by connecting customers to the people and places that matter most will bring significant benefit for Delta peeple in the form of profit sharing, and new investments in our operation, facilities, and you. We also understand the risk of recovering too quickly, which can overtax the operation and let our customers down. The bottom line is this: We know there is extreme demand to fly a very full schedule, but we continue to adjust our
network and other aspects of our operation to balance customer demand for Delta with the realities of our operating environment

We've never rebuilt an airline before, so we'll continue to assess, adjust and improve how we fly and how we support all of you entering this final stage of rebuilding. We want you and our customers to have confidence in the stability of our operation. Our commitment is to share what additional measures we're taking as they are firmed up in the weeks to come. Thank you
for all you continue to do to make us the airline of choice

cokepopper wrote:

I’m surprised this isn’t mentioned.
Delta will proactively reduce about 100 flights a day.
https://www.cnn.com/travel/amp/delta-ai ... index.html

This is what I was referring to in my post from a week or so ago. DL is now making it public, kinda, without getting specific on exactly what is being cut. There are a number of routes which aren’t happening at all this summer or aren’t flying at the frequency DL intended and loaded for sale thanks to the proactive thinning.

AAflyguy