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qf789
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St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 1:48 pm

Welcome to St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022. Please continue discussion below

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1456069
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 6:36 pm

2022

I hate calling 2022 a "boring year" since Lufthansa, of all airlines, is coming to town, but I think it's going to be fairly boring as airlines continue to try to figure out the waves of COVID-19 and where/how it will be popping up and affecting operations and passenger needs/habits this year.

That being said -

American - pretty stable to what we see now. they have a pretty substantial network connecting to all their major points and seem quite happy funneling through their hubs. another link in the chain could be added with a nonstop to JFK to connect to international network and partners - depending on how international traffic patterns go for the year. a possible JFK link could come from DL but i would put more money on AA first.

United - status quo, will continue focusing on hubs and major operations from their spokes with an occasional spoke route or two. it'd be fantastic if something such as Hilton Head and Myrtle Beach (or beyond) worked out for a return

Delta - status quo, will continue focusing on hubs and major operations from their spokes

Sun Country - this might end up being a 'do it or die' year for them here. i think we'll see more firm scheduling and commitment from them or an entire packing up of the shop. i'll be surprised if they can sustain fly-by-night cherry picking, but then again, stranger things have happened. i'm surprised we haven't seen them try Portland or Las Vegas.

Air Canada - same ole same ole.

Spirit - more of the same, except I can see Spirit taking advantage of the "Floridattitude" and setting up shop in Destin with service to six cities or so. I could see STL being on the list.

Southwest - i think we're still in a more of the same phase as they seen keen on Midway and Nashville. i think this year we'll be lucky when we see frequency increases along the current routes and remain hopeful some former routings (Hartford) make a return. i still remain hopeful we could see a STL-ORD link at some point, but i would bet that wouldn't come until after MCI is added first.

Frontier - i have no expectations here. i'd love to see them expand and offer more services and find something that works for them here. it'd be great to see them offer something that sets them apart from the other carriers though, instead of offering more of the same, such as a West Palm Beach or something of the sort.

Allegiant - i see them as having a decent chance for some expansion this year. nothing too crazy but just taking advantage of their current network and filling in the gaps. ultimately while i would guess it boils down to just one new route, i'd put Orlando/Melbourne or Asheville as my top guesses. i'd love to know if they plan to do the Rapid City summer focus again and would put that on the list. left field guess adds would be Norfolk and Boise.

Breeze - i'd be very surprised if they show up here this year as most of their focal points are already well served from here.
 
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TWA302
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 7:53 pm

Wishing everyone a happy and healthy 2022. Looking forward to seeing how this plays out for STL.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:06 pm

stlgph wrote:
2022


Sun Country - this might end up being a 'do it or die' year for them here. i think we'll see more firm scheduling and commitment from them or an entire packing up of the shop. i'll be surprised if they can sustain fly-by-night cherry picking, but then again, stranger things have happened. i'm surprised we haven't seen them try Portland or Las Vegas.


They do run Vegas seasonally in the fall. I was hoping they would bring PDX back in the summer but apparently that doesn’t seem to be happening
 
pmanni1
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:57 pm

WN's BUR operation is up to 76 daily departures and STL seems due.
 
maps4ltd
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:32 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
WN's BUR operation is up to 76 daily departures and STL seems due.


I would agree, especially since SNA and LGB were added and routes like BUR-BNA already exist. They may be constrained at BUR though.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 12:03 am

maps4ltd wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
WN's BUR operation is up to 76 daily departures and STL seems due.


I would agree, especially since SNA and LGB were added and routes like BUR-BNA already exist. They may be constrained at BUR though.


Only reason I left it off my list was I thought 4 LA airports from STL might be a little overkill. I guess they could always switch LGB to BUR. I think SNA sticks around as long as they have the flight "slots" for it.
 
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TWA302
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:52 am

pmanni1 wrote:
WN's BUR operation is up to 76 daily departures and STL seems due.


I need this big time. The connections for BUR suck big time.
 
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OzarkD9S
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 2:13 pm

TWA302 wrote:

I need this big time. The connections for BUR suck big time.


STL is on track for more depth/frequencies this year once the 737-7 situation is sorted out I'm guessing. But you are right regarding connection times right now. Was looking for a day trip in Feb to burn some RR points and maybe hit a new city/airport for an hour or two. Unless I want to leave STL at 5:30-6:30 in the morning (I don't), it's still tough to make a day trip work to quite a few places the further away from STL you get.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:38 pm

OzarkD9S wrote:
TWA302 wrote:

I need this big time. The connections for BUR suck big time.


STL is on track for more depth/frequencies this year once the 737-7 situation is sorted out I'm guessing. But you are right regarding connection times right now. Was looking for a day trip in Feb to burn some RR points and maybe hit a new city/airport for an hour or two. Unless I want to leave STL at 5:30-6:30 in the morning (I don't), it's still tough to make a day trip work to quite a few places the further away from STL you get.


I don’t really accept the 3M7 certification delay as a reason not to start new, potentially profitable routes. Does anybody really think that the new cities like ORD are making money?
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:47 pm

It's more than just simply starting a route. right now it's about having the available resources to service and crew necessary flights and taking all that into consideration as their planes spread across the network.

Southwest is obviously very strong in Chicago and the routes out of O'Hare are pretty geared towards high origin and destination routes, not to say there aren't any on-bound connections, of course, especially out of Nashville, Atlanta, or Denver. wouldn't surprise me at all if ORD is doing well. wouldn't surprise me to see STL added at some point but it would surprise me if MCI didn't come first.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 11:56 pm

stlgph wrote:
It's more than just simply starting a route. right now it's about having the available resources to service and crew necessary flights and taking all that into consideration as their planes spread across the network.

Southwest is obviously very strong in Chicago and the routes out of O'Hare are pretty geared towards high origin and destination routes, not to say there aren't any on-bound connections, of course, especially out of Nashville, Atlanta, or Denver. wouldn't surprise me at all if ORD is doing well. wouldn't surprise me to see STL added at some point but it would surprise me if MCI didn't come first.


It would shock me if ORD is doing well. We know the loads are lower than the MDW loads to the same cities. Anecdotally, it seems like fares are no better than 70-80 percent of the MDW fares on the corresponding routes and times and sometimes they are lower than that. And the passenger experience—especially the departing passenger experience—is very poor, so poor that I expect it hurts yields. Insufficient counter space, no meaningful Precheck, few concessions in the terminal, terribly cramped gatehouses, etc.

We used ORD for our annual Christmas trip to the north suburbs to see family. When we got home, I asked my wife what she thought. Her response was “we’re using MDW or MKE unless ORD is 50 percent cheaper.” MDW isn’t a great passenger experience, so that speaks volumes.
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 12:36 am

Entirely subjective as this all seems to be based on your own personal experience. I, personally flew out of T5 twice in December and had no problems getting through security and the Starbucks that was there was more than adequate. If you're looking to sit down and be pampered with a Ruth's Chris experience then clearly you're not going to be in the right place and the gate area had more than enough space for everyone to sit. T5 was just fine for me and seemed to be just fine for the other 100s of people tromping through at the same time.

That being said, if we're going off of just load factors randomly posted on this site then Southwest needs to cancel probably 70% of their schedule unless you're able to count every dollar that comes in on every fare and compare it to the cost of doing business. I can only imagine T5 came at a pretty good rate with the cut of international services.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:10 am

stlgph wrote:
I, personally flew out of T5 twice in December and had no problems getting through security and the Starbucks that was there was more than adequate.


Are you really suggesting that the lack of real PreCheck doesn't matter to passengers? I think the only other gates at a >1MM passenger/year airport that do not have real PreCheck are the ground level gates at SAN Terminal 1. The Terminal 5 checkpoint probably isn't too bad early in the morning, but our flight left at just about the same time as TK and AI, and the checkpoint was a mess.

stlgph wrote:
That being said, if we're going off of just load factors randomly posted on this site then Southwest needs to cancel probably 70% of their schedule unless you're able to count every dollar that comes in on every fare and compare it to the cost of doing business. I can only imagine T5 came at a pretty good rate with the cut of international services.


Again, I'm looking at the comparison with loads to MDW on identical city pairs. That's hardly a "random post" and is a useful comparator. As you know, profit basically has three components: load factor, cost per seat/CASM and revenue per seat/RASM. If we compare BNA/BWI/DAL/DEN-ORD/MDW, load factors are almost uniformly lower to ORD. Costs are similar though I think CASM is probably fractionally higher to ORD because ORD will have a little more fuel burn (less direct routings inbound, more taxi time), smaller average gauge, and fewer flights among which to spread the fixed costs of the station. And there's not a lot of evidence of a fare premium, although the lack of connections over ORD as compared to MDW may help RASM a bit (I say "may" and not "will" because it's possible that CHI-hub flights have more passengers connecting at the hub on the ORD segments than on the MDW segments).
 
ruskistl
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:11 pm

When's the last time STL had direct JFK? Anyone know why that hasn't been a bigger prioriity?
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:15 pm

ruskistl wrote:
When's the last time STL had direct JFK? Anyone know why that hasn't been a bigger prioriity?


Mid 2010s I think. Not sure on what year.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:24 pm

ruskistl wrote:
When's the last time STL had direct JFK? Anyone know why that hasn't been a bigger prioriity?


JFK might make AA or DL more competitive for STL passengers, but once LH starts it won't add much to the network of the airport as a whole. US hubs will capture connections to all of the big cities in Europe, and FRA is an exceptionally strong hub for "interior Europe."
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:43 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
stlgph wrote:
I, personally flew out of T5 twice in December and had no problems getting through security and the Starbucks that was there was more than adequate.


Are you really suggesting that the lack of real PreCheck doesn't matter to passengers? I think the only other gates at a >1MM passenger/year airport that do not have real PreCheck are the ground level gates at SAN Terminal 1. The Terminal 5 checkpoint probably isn't too bad early in the morning, but our flight left at just about the same time as TK and AI, and the checkpoint was a mess.

stlgph wrote:
That being said, if we're going off of just load factors randomly posted on this site then Southwest needs to cancel probably 70% of their schedule unless you're able to count every dollar that comes in on every fare and compare it to the cost of doing business. I can only imagine T5 came at a pretty good rate with the cut of international services.


Again, I'm looking at the comparison with loads to MDW on identical city pairs. That's hardly a "random post" and is a useful comparator. As you know, profit basically has three components: load factor, cost per seat/CASM and revenue per seat/RASM. If we compare BNA/BWI/DAL/DEN-ORD/MDW, load factors are almost uniformly lower to ORD. Costs are similar though I think CASM is probably fractionally higher to ORD because ORD will have a little more fuel burn (less direct routings inbound, more taxi time), smaller average gauge, and fewer flights among which to spread the fixed costs of the station. And there's not a lot of evidence of a fare premium, although the lack of connections over ORD as compared to MDW may help RASM a bit (I say "may" and not "will" because it's possible that CHI-hub flights have more passengers connecting at the hub on the ORD segments than on the MDW segments).


When I was standing in the line at T5, which wrapped around the loop a good 10-12 times at 8pm packed with passengers headed out for several Frontier and Southwest flights capped with British Airways, TAP, Turkish, SAS, and LOT, along with others, and took me all of 10 minutes to get through, less time than it took me to get through Midway in November with the Pre-Check line, not one person was standing there talking about the lack of a separate PreCheck line and how we were separated after ID check into respective lines. Kind of amazing, isn't it? Again, entirely subjective.

Again, please tell me how you're privvy to Southwest Airlines accounting. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into it than just posting random load factors on an internet forum which you may or may not be able to verify are entirely correct. Again, entirely subjective.

Try again and come back.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:56 pm

stlgph wrote:
Again, please tell me how you're privvy to Southwest Airlines accounting. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into it than just posting random load factors on an internet forum which you may or may not be able to verify are entirely correct. Again, entirely subjective.


What accounting datum is missing in your view? Again, we have a pretty good sense of loads (those are publicly reported and falsifying them is a crime, I'm not sure why you don't trust them), costs, and revenue/fares.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:58 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
stlgph wrote:
Again, please tell me how you're privvy to Southwest Airlines accounting. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into it than just posting random load factors on an internet forum which you may or may not be able to verify are entirely correct. Again, entirely subjective.


What accounting datum is missing in your view? Again, we have a pretty good sense of loads (those are publicly reported and falsifying them is a crime, I'm not sure why you don't trust them), costs, and revenue/fares.


I think we have established you both have different viewpoints on this. You aren't going to change each others minds at this point

ORD back and forth doesn't need to be in the STL thread.
 
ruskistl
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:47 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
ruskistl wrote:
When's the last time STL had direct JFK? Anyone know why that hasn't been a bigger prioriity?


JFK might make AA or DL more competitive for STL passengers, but once LH starts it won't add much to the network of the airport as a whole. US hubs will capture connections to all of the big cities in Europe, and FRA is an exceptionally strong hub for "interior Europe."


Might not unlock too, too many new 1stop connections but I imagine it would open up a lot more competitive international flights in terms of $$$. Especially thinking of all the codeshare options.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 3:52 pm

ruskistl wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
ruskistl wrote:
When's the last time STL had direct JFK? Anyone know why that hasn't been a bigger prioriity?


JFK might make AA or DL more competitive for STL passengers, but once LH starts it won't add much to the network of the airport as a whole. US hubs will capture connections to all of the big cities in Europe, and FRA is an exceptionally strong hub for "interior Europe."


Might not unlock too, too many new 1stop connections but I imagine it would open up a lot more competitive international flights in terms of $$$. Especially thinking of all the codeshare options.


Agree with this. Now that LH is coming maybe it will push AA/DL to restart JFK to be more competitive adding one stop options that LH would have the market cornered on once they start. It won't get all of them that LH will have obviously, but it will add some.
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:36 pm

ruskistl wrote:
When's the last time STL had direct JFK? Anyone know why that hasn't been a bigger prioriity?


everything connects just fine now through O'Hare, Dulles, and beyond.
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:39 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
stlgph wrote:
Again, please tell me how you're privvy to Southwest Airlines accounting. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into it than just posting random load factors on an internet forum which you may or may not be able to verify are entirely correct. Again, entirely subjective.


What accounting datum is missing in your view? Again, we have a pretty good sense of loads (those are publicly reported and falsifying them is a crime, I'm not sure why you don't trust them), costs, and revenue/fares.


You're solely going off of what you read on an internet forum from 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or what have you information posted. You're not at SWA headquarters reading the SAP pages making its way up the C-suite chain.

That's what.
 
ruskistl
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:48 pm

stlgph wrote:
ruskistl wrote:
When's the last time STL had direct JFK? Anyone know why that hasn't been a bigger prioriity?


everything connects just fine now through O'Hare, Dulles, and beyond.



Lol if by "just fine" you mean really high prices and having to connect with that trash dumpster called O'Hare. Or forcing people to do a stressful LGA/JFK shuffle. Sure...just fine.
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:55 pm

ruskistl wrote:
stlgph wrote:
ruskistl wrote:
When's the last time STL had direct JFK? Anyone know why that hasn't been a bigger prioriity?


everything connects just fine now through O'Hare, Dulles, and beyond.



Lol if by "just fine" you mean really high prices and having to connect with that trash dumpster called O'Hare. Or forcing people to do a stressful LGA/JFK shuffle. Sure...just fine.


Don't need to put LGA/JFK into the mix. You can get to all the destinations you can get to from JFK through ORD or IAD on Star Alliance, or ORD on One World or ATL/DTW on Delta and SkyTeam.

Call it a dumpster trash all you want, but it's fairy obvious a lot of *someones* is using UAL to connect into Star Alliance/Lufthansa/UAL international at ORD and at Dulles. The folks at Lufthansa didn't wake up one day and just suddenly decide to serve St Louis for no reason.
 
jplatts
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 4:57 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
JFK might make AA or DL more competitive for STL passengers, but once LH starts it won't add much to the network of the airport as a whole. US hubs will capture connections to all of the big cities in Europe, and FRA is an exceptionally strong hub for "interior Europe."


Most of the European cities west of FRA that have AA nonstop service out of JFK such as BCN, LHR, MAD, and CDG already have 1-stop connecting service through ORD on AA or its partners.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:23 pm

Wednesday could be an interesting day.

Airport layout plan update is coming out. Might be our first look at what they are planning.

Also the airport incentive fund is going up by a million dollars.

https://www.stlouis-mo.gov/government/d ... h-Zoom.pdf
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:46 pm

Is the ALP still on its timeline or has it fallen off schedule, or even ahead of schedule?

https://www.flystl.com/about-us/stl-air ... troduction

Since it just says "update" it could be something boring, as in merely a proposal for a public survey proposal date which could be simply voted upon at the next meeting.
 
Runway765
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:51 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Wednesday could be an interesting day.

Airport layout plan update is coming out. Might be our first look at what they are planning.

Also the airport incentive fund is going up by a million dollars.

https://www.stlouis-mo.gov/government/d ... h-Zoom.pdf


I wonder if they'll go big like MCI/PIT or stay the course. Ideally, the former would be preferable.
 
TWFlyGuy
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:59 pm

jplatts wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
JFK might make AA or DL more competitive for STL passengers, but once LH starts it won't add much to the network of the airport as a whole. US hubs will capture connections to all of the big cities in Europe, and FRA is an exceptionally strong hub for "interior Europe."


Most of the European cities west of FRA that have AA nonstop service out of JFK such as BCN, LHR, MAD, and CDG already have 1-stop connecting service through ORD on AA or its partners.


I know we're still in crazy times, but in normal times you could also add PHL & CLT to connect through for most of those cities.
 
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stl07
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:25 pm

Runway765 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Wednesday could be an interesting day.

Airport layout plan update is coming out. Might be our first look at what they are planning.

Also the airport incentive fund is going up by a million dollars.

https://www.stlouis-mo.gov/government/d ... h-Zoom.pdf


I wonder if they'll go big like MCI/PIT or stay the course. Ideally, the former would be preferable.

Why? I honestly think just renovating T1 like what was previously suggest would be perfectly fine. KCI was abysmal, that's why they did did it. STL terminal 1 is still in great shape. The bigger the change, the more the cost rises, which is passed on to consumers.
 
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stl07
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:28 pm

ruskistl wrote:
stlgph wrote:
ruskistl wrote:
When's the last time STL had direct JFK? Anyone know why that hasn't been a bigger prioriity?


everything connects just fine now through O'Hare, Dulles, and beyond.



Lol if by "just fine" you mean really high prices and having to connect with that trash dumpster called O'Hare. Or forcing people to do a stressful LGA/JFK shuffle. Sure...just fine.

The current hubs work just fine for most places in Europe, but when I'm going to the ME/Asia, I often have to self connect at LGA/JFK which is unideal. A flight to JFK would really help me out
 
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KLMatSJC
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:39 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
Are you really suggesting that the lack of real PreCheck doesn't matter to passengers? I think the only other gates at a >1MM passenger/year airport that do not have real PreCheck are the ground level gates at SAN Terminal 1. The Terminal 5 checkpoint probably isn't too bad early in the morning, but our flight left at just about the same time as TK and AI, and the checkpoint was a mess.


Fully agree. Went through with pax from 3 or 4 widebody international departures on the day before Thanksgiving. Not only was the ID line long and incredibly slow, but a checkpoint stopped working halfway through. Took ~30 minutes or so.
 
Jshank83
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:52 pm

stlgph wrote:
Is the ALP still on its timeline or has it fallen off schedule, or even ahead of schedule?

https://www.flystl.com/about-us/stl-air ... troduction

Since it just says "update" it could be something boring, as in merely a proposal for a public survey proposal date which could be simply voted upon at the next meeting.


Since it has its own zoom link and a totally sperate agenda page. I think it going to be more than something boring. But we'll see.

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... Update.pdf
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 6:58 pm

No action items on the agenda, though.
 
Cubsrule
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:06 pm

ruskistl wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
ruskistl wrote:
When's the last time STL had direct JFK? Anyone know why that hasn't been a bigger prioriity?


JFK might make AA or DL more competitive for STL passengers, but once LH starts it won't add much to the network of the airport as a whole. US hubs will capture connections to all of the big cities in Europe, and FRA is an exceptionally strong hub for "interior Europe."


Might not unlock too, too many new 1stop connections but I imagine it would open up a lot more competitive international flights in terms of $$$. Especially thinking of all the codeshare options.


I live in Nashville, so our geography is similar but we've had more JFK service recently. In my experience, the cheapest NYC connections are those that involve an airport change from LGA to JFK. So I'm afraid that JFK service might not help you fare-wise as much as you think. If B6 comes to JFK-STL and AA/DL are competing for O&D fares there might be some interesting cheap self-connects possible.

stlgph wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
stlgph wrote:
Again, please tell me how you're privvy to Southwest Airlines accounting. There's a hell of a lot more that goes into it than just posting random load factors on an internet forum which you may or may not be able to verify are entirely correct. Again, entirely subjective.


What accounting datum is missing in your view? Again, we have a pretty good sense of loads (those are publicly reported and falsifying them is a crime, I'm not sure why you don't trust them), costs, and revenue/fares.


You're solely going off of what you read on an internet forum from 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or what have you information posted. You're not at SWA headquarters reading the SAP pages making its way up the C-suite chain.

That's what.


I'm confused. The BTS data on loads are the BTS data. They aren't second hand (or thirdhand, or fourthhand). Those are the only data I've cited.
 
Jshank83
Posts: 5746
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:27 pm

stlgph wrote:
No action items on the agenda, though.


Not sure what they would "action" on for any kind of update.

They could tell them exactly what they plan to do with a renovated/new/any kind of terminal with a timeline of all the dates and there wouldn't be anything to action on yet.

I don't expect any kind of full laid out plan but they could put out a lot of details and still be no action items. They have had layout plan updates just put into the normal commission meetings agenda before. Since this one is broken out sperate it leads me to believe it is something more than just a... this is where we are in the timeline, we have another survey next month, thanks for stopping by.
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:40 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
ruskistl wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

JFK might make AA or DL more competitive for STL passengers, but once LH starts it won't add much to the network of the airport as a whole. US hubs will capture connections to all of the big cities in Europe, and FRA is an exceptionally strong hub for "interior Europe."


Might not unlock too, too many new 1stop connections but I imagine it would open up a lot more competitive international flights in terms of $$$. Especially thinking of all the codeshare options.


I live in Nashville, so our geography is similar but we've had more JFK service recently. In my experience, the cheapest NYC connections are those that involve an airport change from LGA to JFK. So I'm afraid that JFK service might not help you fare-wise as much as you think. If B6 comes to JFK-STL and AA/DL are competing for O&D fares there might be some interesting cheap self-connects possible.

stlgph wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:

What accounting datum is missing in your view? Again, we have a pretty good sense of loads (those are publicly reported and falsifying them is a crime, I'm not sure why you don't trust them), costs, and revenue/fares.


You're solely going off of what you read on an internet forum from 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or what have you information posted. You're not at SWA headquarters reading the SAP pages making its way up the C-suite chain.

That's what.


I'm confused. The BTS data on loads are the BTS data. They aren't second hand (or thirdhand, or fourthhand). Those are the only data I've cited.



Again, for the third or fourth time now as I've mentioned, you have to go beyond BTS data. This. isn't. hard.
 
Cubsrule
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Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:49 pm

stlgph wrote:
Cubsrule wrote:
ruskistl wrote:

Might not unlock too, too many new 1stop connections but I imagine it would open up a lot more competitive international flights in terms of $$$. Especially thinking of all the codeshare options.


I live in Nashville, so our geography is similar but we've had more JFK service recently. In my experience, the cheapest NYC connections are those that involve an airport change from LGA to JFK. So I'm afraid that JFK service might not help you fare-wise as much as you think. If B6 comes to JFK-STL and AA/DL are competing for O&D fares there might be some interesting cheap self-connects possible.

stlgph wrote:

You're solely going off of what you read on an internet forum from 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or what have you information posted. You're not at SWA headquarters reading the SAP pages making its way up the C-suite chain.

That's what.


I'm confused. The BTS data on loads are the BTS data. They aren't second hand (or thirdhand, or fourthhand). Those are the only data I've cited.



Again, for the third or fourth time now as I've mentioned, you have to go beyond BTS data. This. isn't. hard.


For which specific part of this load factor analysis are BTS data insufficient? They don't give you costs or revenue, obviously, but I'm not using them for that.
 
stlgph
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Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:55 pm

For the upteenth time now, take into the account the entire cost of doing business. Airport rent, fees, employee compensation, crew and scheduling availability, aircraft availability, fuel pricing and where it comes from, etc. etc. - THE WHOLE PICTURE not just a stat of numbers you really aren't privy as to how they fall into the entire operating matrix of the operating scale here.

This. isn't. hard.

But by all means, if you know something more than the rest of us entirely do, then by all means - please, start writing that cover letter with your brilliance and click away on this page:
https://careers.southwestair.com/c/corp ... reers-jobs

Let us know how it works out.
 
Cubsrule
Posts: 15818
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 12:13 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:11 pm

stlgph wrote:
For the upteenth time now, take into the account the entire cost of doing business. Airport rent, fees, employee compensation, crew and scheduling availability, aircraft availability, fuel pricing and where it comes from, etc. etc. - THE WHOLE PICTURE not just a stat of numbers you really aren't privy as to how they fall into the entire operating matrix of the operating scale here.


Right. But we have a comparator airport across town where a lot of the costs are the same.
 
User avatar
TWA302
Posts: 1296
Joined: Mon Jul 04, 2005 12:17 am

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:46 pm

Cubsrule wrote:
stlgph wrote:
For the upteenth time now, take into the account the entire cost of doing business. Airport rent, fees, employee compensation, crew and scheduling availability, aircraft availability, fuel pricing and where it comes from, etc. etc. - THE WHOLE PICTURE not just a stat of numbers you really aren't privy as to how they fall into the entire operating matrix of the operating scale here.


Right. But we have a comparator airport across town where a lot of the costs are the same.


Image
 
User avatar
symphonicpoet
Posts: 85
Joined: Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:57 am

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:12 am

Jshank83 wrote:

Since it has its own zoom link and a totally sperate agenda page. I think it going to be more than something boring. But we'll see.

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... Update.pdf


Thanks for the heads up.
 
pmanni1
Posts: 538
Joined: Mon Oct 15, 2018 10:17 am

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:15 am

Looks like AA is not doing themselves any favors with the poorly timed AUS flights. Everyday this week the 945pm flight has less than 20 people on board according to the seat maps. The 1005am flight seems to do a little better. WN's flights are definitely more business friendly with an 845am and 440pm departure.
 
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BuzzmeSTL
Posts: 28
Joined: Sun Jul 21, 2019 2:27 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:12 pm

With Allegiant's new planes (didn't quite read when delivery starts), thoughts on what could be added to BLV? AVL? RAP? TYS?
 
Jshank83
Posts: 5746
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 2:23 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:29 pm

BuzzmeSTL wrote:
With Allegiant's new planes (didn't quite read when delivery starts), thoughts on what could be added to BLV? AVL? RAP? TYS?


SNA/LAX/SAN/OAK/DEN/EWR/BWI were listed routes they were hoping to add if they got a base.
BLV was listed as one of the first places they want to start CUN when they start international flights
I would think MSY/EWY would be decent options also.
 
User avatar
stl07
Posts: 3204
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 8:57 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:57 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
Looks like AA is not doing themselves any favors with the poorly timed AUS flights. Everyday this week the 945pm flight has less than 20 people on board according to the seat maps. The 1005am flight seems to do a little better. WN's flights are definitely more business friendly with an 845am and 440pm departure.

Basic economy doesn’t assign seats, and most travelers right now are not going for work due to omicron and even just the holidays
 
dcaproducer
Posts: 613
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2016 5:26 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:03 pm

stl07 wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
Looks like AA is not doing themselves any favors with the poorly timed AUS flights. Everyday this week the 945pm flight has less than 20 people on board according to the seat maps. The 1005am flight seems to do a little better. WN's flights are definitely more business friendly with an 845am and 440pm departure.

Basic economy doesn’t assign seats, and most travelers right now are not going for work due to omicron and even just the holidays


Yeah seat maps are not an accurate sense of how full a flight will be. DL is similar to AA on this. ExpertFlyer will show you remaining inventory by fare buckets.
 
User avatar
stl07
Posts: 3204
Joined: Mon May 01, 2017 8:57 pm

Re: St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:26 pm

Are we really having 3x STL-YYZ over summer?
Heck with that, all of UA, and LH, it's time for a *A club
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