St. Louis Aviation Thread - 2022

GEnxSched · Mon Mar 14, 2022 11:45 pm

Nicknuzzii wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
BLV applied again for the small community air service development program grant.

I got a hold of their application. I have only had time to scan it.

Targeted routes are the same as last year but have added Austin.
AUS/BWI/EWR/DEN/OAK/LAX/SNA/SAN

More talk of a being a base with 2 planes. Gets into plane usage on routes.

I'll read through it all tonight and post more.

Really surprised G4 won’t jump on BLV-EWR.

It might be right on the edge without an aircraft/ crew base in BLV or EWR. I think it would be technically possible for a flight like CVG - EWR - BLV - EWR - CVG, if it fit within the allotted times available at EWR. But that might present a little more risk than they are willing to take considering the possibility of delays into the NYC area.

Jshank83 · Tue Mar 15, 2022 2:33 am

Full post: Everything is directly from the application except the last part with my thoughts

BLV applied again for the small community air service development program grant.

They are asking for 490K to add a base and eight new routes.

BLV is up to 4.1% of the PDEW market share in the region.

Targeted routes are the same as last year but have added Austin and apparently New Orleans.
It is a tad confusing in the wording.
Map - SNA/LAX (no MSY)
Text - LAX/MSY (no SNA)
Aircraft usage chart - SNA/MSY (no LAX)
So I don't know if it is LAX and SNA as one or what it should be because it lists 8 destinations throughout.
Full list - AUS/BWI/EWR/DEN/OAK/LAX/SNA/SAN/MSY

The Airport envisions the base evolving over time. Initially, one aircraft would be based at MidAmerica St. Louis. In the second year of the base, it is anticipated Allegiant would base a second aircraft at the Airport. Using the first aircraft, Allegiant could add service to four initial markets: Baltimore, Denver, Los Angeles, and Newark. In this scenario, Baltimore, Los Angeles and Newark would each be served three times per week, while Denver would be served twice per week.

The based aircraft could also help Allegiant expand service to existing markets. There would be enough aircraft time available for Allegiant to add a third weekly trip to Las Vegas with the first aircraft, even after adding four new nonstop markets (refer to the red highlighted frequencies in chart 9).

In all, the one based aircraft would grow MidAmerica St. Louis Airport’s weekly departures by 12 flights, or 25% (refer to chart 9). With just one based aircraft added to current schedules, MidAmerica St. Louis would see 60 departures per week, with as many as 10 daily departures on peak days, including Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday.

A second based aircraft would allow Allegiant to add four more nonstop markets. The second aircraft could be used to add flights to Austin, New Orleans, Oakland, and San Diego (refer to the red highlighted frequencies chart 10). Austin could be served three times per week while all other markets are served twice per week. The second based aircraft would add another 11 departures per week, and bring total nonstop cities served from MidAmerica St. Louis Airport to 20. That service pattern would provide substantial, coast-to-coast competition to the carriers serving Lambert Airport resulting in lower fares.

With two based aircraft, Allegiant would grow MidAmerica St. Louis Airport’s weekly departures by 23 flights, or 48% (refer to chart 10 on the previous page). With both based aircraft added to current schedules, MidAmerica St. Louis would see 73 departures per week, with as many as 12 daily departures on the peak days of Thursday and Sunday.

Many of these routes have a relatively long length-of-haul making them difficult to operate with crew restrictions that some low cost airlines have. For example, Allegiant does not overnight crews at outstations – all crews end their duty day back at their base. From a base like Los Angeles, a crew could fly two roundtrips on shorter west coast routes, rather than one roundtrip to St. Louis. But with a St. Louis base, crews could be mixed across the St. Louis network with more flexibility, making the cost of operating longer routes less prohibitive.

Breakdown of money
Start up costs 300K
Advertising/Marketing 350K
Total 650k (160k from local, 490k from grant)

The Airport and its partners have already started discussions with Allegiant about the potential to develop a base at MidAmerica St. Louis Airport and about the targeted expansion. The Airport has met, in person, with Allegiant planners four times in the last nine months. It also conducts a weekly call with Allegiant representatives to discuss ongoing expansion plans in the St. Louis market.

Because Allegiant is familiar with the business plan, the Airport anticipates completing an agreement for additional service by the fall of 2022 (refer to chart 13). The Airport is targeting spring of 2023 as a start date for the first new route launch, with more new routes being rolled out over a period of two years. On this timeline, the Airport would close this Grant award by spring of 2025.

An Allegiant letter of support is included.

Side thought by me: They play this thing out smartly, assuming it was on purpose. They did a good job looking at qualifications and present the data accordingly. On average fare they lumped themselves in with STL to make it look like fares are high as a region (instead just showing BLVs lower fares) and this would help bring them down. They have a chart showing available seats and the back half of the year it looks like STL has a huge dip. The dip is because Southwest's schedule isn't loaded yet.

I don't know if they will get it but for the amount they are asking and what comes of it, to me its a lot better than some airport asking for a million dollars to get a once daily flight that probably isn't going to come anyway.

QXorVX · Tue Mar 15, 2022 3:17 am

Thanks for the detailed summary. I wonder if this is one of those things that will happen either way- check from BLV or not.

Jshank83 wrote:
...From a base like Los Angeles, a crew could fly two roundtrips on shorter west coast routes, rather than one roundtrip to St. Louis. But with a St. Louis base, crews could be mixed across the St. Louis network with more flexibility, making the cost of operating longer routes less prohibitive...

Not sure I understand their logic on this one... I'm pretty sure its only one round trip for the crew wether they start their day at LAX or BLV lol.

I also get a kick out of the added LAS-BLV Tuesday flight, as if aircraft availability is the reason that doesn't operate now.

stl07 · Tue Mar 15, 2022 3:36 am

Here is where the proposal fails. It is the "small community grant." If you brand yourself as STL, you are branding yourself as a major city, not a small community. In all fairness, the airport is actually in a small community, so I wonder why they don't just brand themselves in the application as the airport of BLV or the airport of the metro east

Jshank83 · Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:31 am

stl07 wrote:
Here is where the proposal fails. It is the "small community grant." If you brand yourself as STL, you are branding yourself as a major city, not a small community. In all fairness, the airport is actually in a small community, so I wonder why they don't just brand themselves in the application as the airport of BLV or the airport of the metro east

I think it’s tough to make the arguments the want to make by trying to be insular to just BLV. If they did they would have really low airfares, which hurts the bid. And 12 nonstop destinations for a fairly small population comparatively if you just count the metro east. Which also hurts their case. So they have to figure out how to frame things to get the metrics to like them. Issue then like you say is they aren’t small anymore. So they basically make the argument we are a small airport (which should mean we are eligible) but then separately here is all this data for the region.

I doubt they get it but I can’t fault them for trying. Also only one grant last year was lower than they are asking. I think the decision makers should keep that in mind. It’s more bang for you buck than any other proposal. But I’m also bias.

galapagapop · Tue Mar 15, 2022 4:37 am

Jshank83, thanks for posting this.

All I gotta say is wow. I don't know if they'll get this grant, but having spent years doing RFP/grant work in St. Louis with a lot of these transportation/infrastructure folks prior to the pandemic, the shift in quality is unreal to me. So much of St. Louis grant writing and infrastructure development work is all just politics, and so many of their RFP proposals or projects lack actionable information supporting their case. I mean just look at what our region put out for the Amazon HQ2 proposal on the air side, we just talked about runway capacity because pushing Lambert's flight connectivity upset the Illinois side of things. So somehow despite not being really a part of the RFP, we talked runway capacity at all the regional airports....

This is honestly eye opening to me after seeing BLV grant work, and more pointedly, the work of St. Clair County thru the years.

I still don't know if Allegiant has the fleet flexibility to fulfill this ask, compared to other opportunities in their network, but Mid America is making the right move here and going all in on Allegiant, when very easily they could be proposing trying to attract other carriers instead.

dcaproducer · Tue Mar 15, 2022 1:55 pm

If BLV does not get the grant, then what? Assume they have a plan B and will spend the $ with G4 regardless? I feel with the terminal expansion there have been some discussions with G4 that there are other ways of funding a base if this grant doesn't come through. I give them credit for trying.

Now to the reality of service at BLV. How many routes, how much service before they've saturated what that airport can really support? And I'm not referring to facilities, I'm referring to passengers who will go to BLV when many of these destinations are available at STL with greater frequency. I'd be very curious to see where BLV passengers are coming from and which percentage come from St. Louis and St. Charles Counties.

Jshank83 · Tue Mar 15, 2022 2:17 pm

dcaproducer wrote:
If BLV does not get the grant, then what? Assume they have a plan B and will spend the $ with G4 regardless? I feel with the terminal expansion there have been some discussions with G4 that there are other ways of funding a base if this grant doesn't come through. I give them credit for trying.

Now to the reality of service at BLV. How many routes, how much service before they've saturated what that airport can really support? And I'm not referring to facilities, I'm referring to passengers who will go to BLV when many of these destinations are available at STL with greater frequency. I'd be very curious to see where BLV passengers are coming from and which percentage come from St. Louis and St. Charles Counties.

I have always been under the impression the base happens either way. In the grand scheme of things 500K isn't that much more to close the gap. Maybe less routes or they just don't come as fast.

Capacity wise, I think they will be okay with 2x and 3x a week. That isn't THAT much extra capacity. I've always been under the impression ULCC stimulates routes and gets people to fly that maybe wouldn't, or get people an extra flight a year. I know a fair amount of people that have never been to California. If G4 starts the routes that might mean now the can afford to take their family there because they are saving $500 on a family of 4. That all said I think this route map would be about it for Midamerica. Add the Mexico routes coming and I can't really see anything else that makes any sense to add besides maybe Key West. Maybe try a seasonal RNO or something but really I think this would tap it out.

dcaproducer · Tue Mar 15, 2022 5:49 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
dcaproducer wrote:
If BLV does not get the grant, then what? Assume they have a plan B and will spend the $ with G4 regardless? I feel with the terminal expansion there have been some discussions with G4 that there are other ways of funding a base if this grant doesn't come through. I give them credit for trying.

Now to the reality of service at BLV. How many routes, how much service before they've saturated what that airport can really support? And I'm not referring to facilities, I'm referring to passengers who will go to BLV when many of these destinations are available at STL with greater frequency. I'd be very curious to see where BLV passengers are coming from and which percentage come from St. Louis and St. Charles Counties.

I have always been under the impression the base happens either way. In the grand scheme of things 500K isn't that much more to close the gap. Maybe less routes or they just don't come as fast.

Capacity wise, I think they will be okay with 2x and 3x a week. That isn't THAT much extra capacity. I've always been under the impression ULCC stimulates routes and gets people to fly that maybe wouldn't, or get people an extra flight a year. I know a fair amount of people that have never been to California. If G4 starts the routes that might mean now the can afford to take their family there because they are saving $500 on a family of 4. That all said I think this route map would be about it for Midamerica. Add the Mexico routes coming and I can't really see anything else that makes any sense to add besides maybe Key West. Maybe try a seasonal RNO or something but really I think this would tap it out.

I'd be curious if the airport has a 5 or 10yr plan. With that said, they have found a good niche. If they could land a few flights from Breeze or maybe JSX breaks into the midwest, they would add some stability, but I don't see that happening.

Unrelated, has STL decided to move forward with expanding the baggage claim area in T2 or abandon that idea?

Jshank83 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 1:25 am

Some AA notes:

CUN back on the schedule for Nov. Obviously could change but at least good to see.

For April (I'll get a full April frequency update this week, I am mostly thru it)
DFW and CLT both backed way off from March. Losing 2 dailies.
BOS gets the 2nd frequency back
DCA goes to 5x
LGA goes to 3x mainline! Stays 5x total

BHMNONREV · Mon Mar 21, 2022 2:14 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Some AA notes:

CUN back on the schedule for Nov. Obviously could change but at least good to see.

For April (I'll get a full April frequency update this week, I am mostly thru it)
DFW and CLT both backed way off from March. Losing 2 dailies.
BOS gets the 2nd frequency back
DCA goes to 5x
LGA goes to 3x mainline! Stays 5x total

Amazing that LGA will see more seats than ORD, with DCA not far behind..

Jshank83 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 7:46 pm

Apple partially updated their schedule for 2023. CUN and PUJ remain on Frontier. Same frequencies as this year.

https://www.applevacations.com/flights- ... -louis/#!/

stl07 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 8:43 pm

PVR, HUX, and SJD

Nice!

Now if only we can convince them to run a MEX/GDL during the plane's down time

TWA302 · Mon Mar 21, 2022 9:00 pm

stl07 wrote:
PVR, HUX, and SJD

Nice!

Now if only we can convince them to run a MEX/GDL during the plane's down time

Jshank83 · Tue Mar 22, 2022 2:45 pm

Great to see checkpoint numbers above prepandemic.

______________________________________________________

Last week, St. Louis Lambert International Airport saw its highest outgoing passenger volume since before the COVID-19 pandemic began.

The airport reported Tuesday that for the week of March 13-19, the TSA at Lambert recorded more than 120,000 outgoing passengers. That is the highest amount of passengers Lambert has reported since it started recording those numbers when the pandemic began in March 2020. That number doesn't include incoming passengers.

The last four days of last week saw a total of 77,000 passengers go through TSA checkpoints at Lambert, which exceeded numbers during the same time in 2019 before the pandemic.

https://www.ksdk.com/article/travel/st- ... 10d856423c

Jshank83 · Wed Mar 23, 2022 12:37 pm

April 2022 Frequency update

I like to compare to 2019 as a baseline but we are starting to run into things like AS had 21 flights in 2019 but had already cut SAN precovid in 2020 and BLV having their best year last year. Spirit wasn't here precovid. So I might end up changing it to just the year before when we get to June. Especially if Southwest's numbers for summer hold above/or close to precovid.

Flights per week February
April 2022 (March 2022) April 2019 (%vs April 2019)
WN 630 (642) 807 (-21.9%)
AA 234 (243) 246 (-4.8%)
DL 142 (141) 196 (-27.5%)
UA 127 (122) 201 (-36.8%)
NK 42 (51) XX
F9 31 (35) 38 (-18.4.%)
AS 7 (7) 21 (-66%)

G4 24 (29) 17 (+41%) - vs 2021 since it was better than 2019

Total STL 1322 (1343) 1700 (-22.2%)

Seats based on Monday (April 2019 seats) vs April 2019
AA 3786 (4164) -9%
DL 2522 (3242) -22.2%
UA 1326 (1758) -24.5%

Notes:
NYC up to 20 flights a day 6xUA, 5xDL, 5xAA, 4xWN
DL - Some 757s back on ATL
AA - BOS back to 2x. DCA up to 5x. LGA up to 5x (3x mainline which has to be the most in a long time) which makes it up over 100% seats from 2019. Down seats on Monday but more flights were added back to other days (tuesday/wednesday) so the actual drop probably isn't the 9% shown.
WN - Down a bit from March but only because of less Saturday flights. 95 on week days. 96 on Sunday (extra TPA). Added back some more "business" type routes and cut back Florida. SJC/SEA/SLC also gone til summer
UA - IAD down to 1x....... EWR up to 6x
F9 - ATL comes back at the end of the month.
G4 - SAV/CHS start back up
Boutique keeps running a single flight to MKL so for now I added it back to the spreadsheet. Eventually it will go away.... I think

Full Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

pmanni1 · Thu Mar 24, 2022 12:51 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
April 2022 Frequency update

I like to compare to 2019 as a baseline but we are starting to run into things like AS had 21 flights in 2019 but had already cut SAN precovid in 2020 and BLV having their best year last year. Spirit wasn't here precovid. So I might end up changing it to just the year before when we get to June. Especially if Southwest's numbers for summer hold above/or close to precovid.

Flights per week February
April 2022 (March 2022) April 2019 (%vs April 2019)
WN 630 (642) 807 (-21.9%)
AA 234 (243) 246 (-4.8%)
DL 142 (141) 196 (-27.5%)
UA 127 (122) 201 (-36.8%)
NK 42 (51) XX
F9 31 (35) 38 (-18.4.%)
AS 7 (7) 21 (-66%)

G4 24 (29) 17 (+41%) - vs 2021 since it was better than 2019

Total STL 1322 (1343) 1700 (-22.2%)

Seats based on Monday (April 2019 seats) vs April 2019
AA 3786 (4164) -9%
DL 2522 (3242) -22.2%
UA 1326 (1758) -24.5%

Notes:
NYC up to 20 flights a day 6xUA, 5xDL, 5xAA, 4xWN
DL - Some 757s back on ATL
AA - BOS back to 2x. DCA up to 5x. LGA up to 5x (3x mainline which has to be the most in a long time) which makes it up over 100% seats from 2019. Down seats on Monday but more flights were added back to other days (tuesday/wednesday) so the actual drop probably isn't the 9% shown.
WN - Down a bit from March but only because of less Saturday flights. 95 on week days. 96 on Sunday (extra TPA). Added back some more "business" type routes and cut back Florida. SJC/SEA/SLC also gone til summer
UA - IAD down to 1x....... EWR up to 6x
F9 - ATL comes back at the end of the month.
G4 - SAV/CHS start back up
Boutique keeps running a single flight to MKL so for now I added it back to the spreadsheet. Eventually it will go away.... I think

Full Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Biggest headscratcher on the spreadsheet is WN having flights everyday except Saturday to Florida (JAX).

Jshank83 · Thu Mar 24, 2022 2:50 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
April 2022 Frequency update

I like to compare to 2019 as a baseline but we are starting to run into things like AS had 21 flights in 2019 but had already cut SAN precovid in 2020 and BLV having their best year last year. Spirit wasn't here precovid. So I might end up changing it to just the year before when we get to June. Especially if Southwest's numbers for summer hold above/or close to precovid.

Flights per week February
April 2022 (March 2022) April 2019 (%vs April 2019)
WN 630 (642) 807 (-21.9%)
AA 234 (243) 246 (-4.8%)
DL 142 (141) 196 (-27.5%)
UA 127 (122) 201 (-36.8%)
NK 42 (51) XX
F9 31 (35) 38 (-18.4.%)
AS 7 (7) 21 (-66%)

G4 24 (29) 17 (+41%) - vs 2021 since it was better than 2019

Total STL 1322 (1343) 1700 (-22.2%)

Seats based on Monday (April 2019 seats) vs April 2019
AA 3786 (4164) -9%
DL 2522 (3242) -22.2%
UA 1326 (1758) -24.5%

Notes:
NYC up to 20 flights a day 6xUA, 5xDL, 5xAA, 4xWN
DL - Some 757s back on ATL
AA - BOS back to 2x. DCA up to 5x. LGA up to 5x (3x mainline which has to be the most in a long time) which makes it up over 100% seats from 2019. Down seats on Monday but more flights were added back to other days (tuesday/wednesday) so the actual drop probably isn't the 9% shown.
WN - Down a bit from March but only because of less Saturday flights. 95 on week days. 96 on Sunday (extra TPA). Added back some more "business" type routes and cut back Florida. SJC/SEA/SLC also gone til summer
UA - IAD down to 1x....... EWR up to 6x
F9 - ATL comes back at the end of the month.
G4 - SAV/CHS start back up
Boutique keeps running a single flight to MKL so for now I added it back to the spreadsheet. Eventually it will go away.... I think

Full Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Biggest headscratcher on the spreadsheet is WN having flights everyday except Saturday to Florida (JAX).

That surprised me a bit also. I guess its better than March where they only flew to SLC on Tues/Wed

TWA302 · Fri Mar 25, 2022 2:37 am

[url]https://www.surveymonkey.com/survey-taken/?sm=bMkBvjEIud0_2FLOK45lQToEPZr7QVe5EqbI4VaeV4trEvQqHOeew6yS0Mz_2BHTAdpa7IHHb6CxyVR80hT9FWJGYKft3eDjQg4SXkHje0Trtkc_3D/[url]Looks like a new survey is out from the airport with some new diagrams.

Jshank83 · Fri Mar 25, 2022 11:25 pm

February numbers for STL

Passengers
vs 2021
up 101.5% on month
up 93.3% YTD

vs 2019
down 27% on month
down 28.8% YTD

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... bruary.pdf

Also pushed over 11.09 mil for the last calendar year now.

Jshank83 · Sat Mar 26, 2022 12:26 pm

Some 2021 operations stats for STL

Newest runway used 11.3% of time
Crosswind used 0.6%

Sep19 was busiest day

Top planes used
737-700
737-800
CRJ7
CRJ9
E175

Top departures
Southwest
AA
Cape
Skywest
Delta

17 noise complaints

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... Report.pdf

TWA302 · Sat Mar 26, 2022 1:53 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Some 2021 operations stats for STL

Newest runway used 11.3% of time
Crosswind used 0.6%

Sep19 was busiest day

Top planes used
737-700
737-800
CRJ7
CRJ9
E175

Top departures
Southwest
AA
Cape
Skywest
Delta

17 noise complaints

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... Report.pdf

17 noise complaints can be forwarded to Boeing. Lol

T18 · Sat Mar 26, 2022 8:02 pm

TWA302 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Some 2021 operations stats for STL

Newest runway used 11.3% of time
Crosswind used 0.6%

Sep19 was busiest day

Top planes used
737-700
737-800
CRJ7
CRJ9
E175

Top departures
Southwest
AA
Cape
Skywest
Delta

17 noise complaints

https://www.flystl.com/uploads/document ... Report.pdf

17 noise complaints can be forwarded to Boeing. Lol

I for one love that noise

I do wonder pof those 17 how many lived here before McDonnell started making jets here....

symphonicpoet · Sun Mar 27, 2022 5:44 am

^Given that McDonnell apparently started developing their first jet in 1943 . . . I'm thinking not too many. (1943? Wow! I knew they'd been doing it a while, but I did not realize the FH-1 was quite that groundbreaking. First flight January of 1945 if Wiki is worth anything.)

atrude777 · Sun Mar 27, 2022 4:13 pm

I booked on the AA Website MWA-STL-ORD.

The price was great $170 to fly from MWA on Cape Air (Hopefully Tecnam) to STL.

Then on American Eagle by Republic on the E175 STL-ORD.

It's a Saturday so the frequencies are less, but what a shame to see mostly Regional Flying now on AA STL-ORD. I fly back and forth between Chicago and Southern Illinois every month.

Southwest oddly was the most expensive for the times I needed to travel.

Looking forward to checking out Lambert again, counting down the days until we see LH in STL!

Alex

roysoup · Sun Mar 27, 2022 8:59 pm

Any idea how to book an A220 flight if I'm based in STL?

TWA302 · Mon Mar 28, 2022 1:25 am

atrude777 wrote:
I booked on the AA Website MWA-STL-ORD.

The price was great $170 to fly from MWA on Cape Air (Hopefully Tecnam) to STL.

Then on American Eagle by Republic on the E175 STL-ORD.

It's a Saturday so the frequencies are less, but what a shame to see mostly Regional Flying now on AA STL-ORD. I fly back and forth between Chicago and Southern Illinois every month.

Southwest oddly was the most expensive for the times I needed to travel.

Looking forward to checking out Lambert again, counting down the days until we see LH in STL!

Alex

Does AA get any kick backs from the government on those EAS codeshare flights with Cape? I assume it is 170 ow and not rt?
Looking forward to our LH trip to my first real Oktoberfest and seeing family I have not seen in twenty years.

Jshank83 · Mon Mar 28, 2022 1:37 am

roysoup wrote:
Any idea how to book an A220 flight if I'm based in STL?

MSP or SLC on delta runs them. Not all the time but that’s the routes it has been on.

atrude777 · Mon Mar 28, 2022 2:57 am

TWA302 wrote:
atrude777 wrote:
I booked on the AA Website MWA-STL-ORD.

The price was great $170 to fly from MWA on Cape Air (Hopefully Tecnam) to STL.

Then on American Eagle by Republic on the E175 STL-ORD.

It's a Saturday so the frequencies are less, but what a shame to see mostly Regional Flying now on AA STL-ORD. I fly back and forth between Chicago and Southern Illinois every month.

Southwest oddly was the most expensive for the times I needed to travel.

Looking forward to checking out Lambert again, counting down the days until we see LH in STL!

Alex

Does AA get any kick backs from the government on those EAS codeshare flights with Cape? I assume it is 170 ow and not rt?
Looking forward to our LH trip to my first real Oktoberfest and seeing family I have not seen in twenty years.

Yes, $170 one way. $29 Cape Air to STL and $140 STL-ORD

Yes, if the passenger books the trip on AA all the way, American gets a portion of it as a Codeshare. UA gets the same if they book CGI-ORD-XXX.

However you can't book the Cape Air portion on AA, you must have a connection for it to show up.

I hope you have a great time with LH! If I can make it work I would love to be in STL to see the departure!

Alex

roysoup · Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:18 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
roysoup wrote:
Any idea how to book an A220 flight if I'm based in STL?

MSP or SLC on delta runs them. Not all the time but that’s the routes it has been on.

Thanks, what about Jetblue, any chance their 220 come near STL?

Jshank83 · Wed Mar 30, 2022 2:01 am

roysoup wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
roysoup wrote:
Any idea how to book an A220 flight if I'm based in STL?

MSP or SLC on delta runs them. Not all the time but that’s the routes it has been on.

Thanks, what about Jetblue, any chance their 220 come near STL?

MCI is the closest JetBlue station.

Jshank83 · Wed Mar 30, 2022 3:17 am

December loads

Combined both ways

AS
SEA 91.5%

AA
LAX 84%
DFW 81.5%
PHX 81.5%
CLT 77%
ORD 72%
MIA 70.5%
PHL 69.5%
DCA 65%
AUS 59%
LGA 55.5%
BOS 44%

DL
ATL 76%
SLC 74.5%
DTW 73.5%
MSP 67%
LGA 51%

UA
DEN 85%
IAH 84%
IAD 75.5%
ORD 75% Air Wisconsin/Gojet/Mainline ONLY
EWR 70%

NK
LAX 77%
FLL 75.5%
PHX 72%
LAS 67%
RSW 62%
MCO 61.5%
TPA 59.5%

F9
MCO 80%
LAS 72%
DEN 71%
MIA 56.5%
ATL 54%

WN
PNS 97.5% (one flight each way)
SFO 94.5% (one flight each way)
SEA 94% (one flight each way)
LAX 93%
SMF 93%
ECP 92.5% (one flight each way)
PHX 92%
SAN 90.5%
PDX 90%
RDU 90%
LAS 89.5%
OMA 89%
OAK 89%
SJC 88.5%
DEN 88.5%
SLC 88.5%
SAT 88.5%
DAL 88%
ATL 86.5%
LGB 85.5%
HOU 85.5%
SNA 85.5%
LGB 85.5%
SNA 85.5%
PIT 85%
OKC 85%
AUS 84.5%
PHL 83.5%
MSY 83%
SJU 81%
BWI 80.5%
MCO 80.5%
MCI 79.5%
MDW 79%
TPA 79%
TUL 78%
JAX 78%
JAX 78%
RSW 77.5%
MSP 75.5%
BNA 75.5%
ICT 74%
MIA 73.5%
BOS 73.5%
DTW 72%
FLL 72%
CMH 71%
MKE 71%
CLT 70%
CLE 68.5%
SRQ 68.5%
LGA 67%
DSM 67%
SRQ 68.5%
LIT 66.5%
DCA 63.5%

G4 (BLV)
PIE 86%
AZA 85.5% - First month of the season
PGD 84%
VPS 82%
SFB 80.5%
LAS 76%
FLL 73.5%
SRQ 60.5%

Jshank83 · Wed Mar 30, 2022 12:42 pm

Nothing new in the southwest extension. Looks like Sunday heavy.

Sea/sju/Slc are gone
Oak/SNA/Pdx are Sunday only.
I haven’t gone thru it in depth yet though.

pmanni1 · Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:40 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Nothing new in the southwest extension. Looks like Sunday heavy.

Sea/sju/Slc are gone
Oak/SNA/Pdx are Sunday only.
I haven’t gone thru it in depth yet though.

Handing SEA over to AS and SLC over to DL.
BNA,MDW & HOU lost SJU as well. My guess is that it's a seasonal drop.

Jshank83 · Wed Mar 30, 2022 1:46 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Nothing new in the southwest extension. Looks like Sunday heavy.

Sea/sju/Slc are gone
Oak/SNA/Pdx are Sunday only.
I haven’t gone thru it in depth yet though.

Handing SEA over to AS and SLC over to DL.
BNA,MDW & HOU lost SJU as well. My guess is that it's a seasonal drop.

I'd tend to agree. Probably comes back in November. Might be a Nov-March, June-August thing. Although I could see them closing those gaps once staffing gets figured out.

Jshank83 · Wed Mar 30, 2022 3:02 pm

September schedule Fri Sat Sun

Atlanta GA (ATL) 3 3 3
Austin TX (AUS) 3 3 3
Baltimore MD (BWI) 3 4 3
Boston MA (BOS) 3 2 3
Cancun MX (CUN) 0 1 1
Charleston SC (CHS) 0 1 1
Charlotte NC (CLT) 1 0 1
Chicago IL (MDW) 8 4 5
Cleveland OH (CLE) 2 1 2
Columbus OH (CMH) 2 1 2
Dallas TX (DAL) 5 4 6
Denver CO (DEN) 6 5 6
Des Moines IA (DSM) 2 1 2
Destin FL (VPS) 0 1 1
Detroit MI (DTW) 2 1 1
Ft. Lauderdale FL (FLL) 2 1 2
Ft. Myers FL (RSW) 1 3 2
Houston TX (HOU) 4 3 3
Jacksonville FL (JAX) 1 1 1
Kansas City MO (MCI) 3 2 3
Las Vegas NV (LAS) 4 3 4
Little Rock AR (LIT) 2 1 2
Long Beach CA (LGB) 1 1 1
Los Angeles CA (LAX) 1 1 2
Miami FL (MIA) 1 1 1
Milwaukee WI (MKE) 2 1 1
Minneapolis MN (MSP) 2 1 1
Montego Bay JAM (MBJ)
Myrtle Beach SC (MYR) 0 1 0
Nashville TN (BNA) 4 2 4
New Orleans LA (MSY) 2 2 2
New York NY (LGA) 4 2 3
Oakland CA (OAK) 0 0 1
Oklahoma City OK (OKC) 2 1 2
Omaha NE (OMA) 3 2 2
Orange County CA (SNA) 0 0 1
Orlando FL (MCO) 4 4 5
Panama City FL (ECP) 0 1 2
Pensacola FL (PNS) 0 1 1
Philadelphia PA (PHL) 3 1 3
Pittsburgh PA (PIT) 1 1 2
Phoenix AZ (PHX) 3 4 3
Portland OR (PDX) 0 0 1
Raleigh NC (RDU) 1 1 2
Sacramento (SMF) 1 1 1
Salt Lake City (SLC)
San Antonio TX (SAT) 1 1 1
San Deigo CA (SAN) 1 1 1
San Jose CA (SJC) 1 0 1
San Juan PR (SJU)
San Francisco CA (SFO)
Sarasota FL (SRQ) 1 1 1
Seattle WA (SEA)
Tampa FL (TPA) 2 3 3
Tulsa OK (TUL) 2 1 2
Washington DC (DCA) 4 3 4
Wichita KS (ICT) 2 1 2
Total 106 86 113

2019 was 117 82 119

TWA302 · Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:28 pm

Being discussed in another thread. Air Choice One is being acquired by Southern Airways Express. Probably the best for them since they are on life support in the EAS game.

https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1471523

dcaproducer · Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:51 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
September schedule Fri Sat Sun

Atlanta GA (ATL) 3 3 3
Austin TX (AUS) 3 3 3
Baltimore MD (BWI) 3 4 3
Boston MA (BOS) 3 2 3
Cancun MX (CUN) 0 1 1
Charleston SC (CHS) 0 1 1
Charlotte NC (CLT) 1 0 1
Chicago IL (MDW) 8 4 5
Cleveland OH (CLE) 2 1 2
Columbus OH (CMH) 2 1 2
Dallas TX (DAL) 5 4 6
Denver CO (DEN) 6 5 6
Des Moines IA (DSM) 2 1 2
Destin FL (VPS) 0 1 1
Detroit MI (DTW) 2 1 1
Ft. Lauderdale FL (FLL) 2 1 2
Ft. Myers FL (RSW) 1 3 2
Houston TX (HOU) 4 3 3
Jacksonville FL (JAX) 1 1 1
Kansas City MO (MCI) 3 2 3
Las Vegas NV (LAS) 4 3 4
Little Rock AR (LIT) 2 1 2
Long Beach CA (LGB) 1 1 1
Los Angeles CA (LAX) 1 1 2
Miami FL (MIA) 1 1 1
Milwaukee WI (MKE) 2 1 1
Minneapolis MN (MSP) 2 1 1
Montego Bay JAM (MBJ)
Myrtle Beach SC (MYR) 0 1 0
Nashville TN (BNA) 4 2 4
New Orleans LA (MSY) 2 2 2
New York NY (LGA) 4 2 3
Oakland CA (OAK) 0 0 1
Oklahoma City OK (OKC) 2 1 2
Omaha NE (OMA) 3 2 2
Orange County CA (SNA) 0 0 1
Orlando FL (MCO) 4 4 5
Panama City FL (ECP) 0 1 2
Pensacola FL (PNS) 0 1 1
Philadelphia PA (PHL) 3 1 3
Pittsburgh PA (PIT) 1 1 2
Phoenix AZ (PHX) 3 4 3
Portland OR (PDX) 0 0 1
Raleigh NC (RDU) 1 1 2
Sacramento (SMF) 1 1 1
Salt Lake City (SLC)
San Antonio TX (SAT) 1 1 1
San Deigo CA (SAN) 1 1 1
San Jose CA (SJC) 1 0 1
San Juan PR (SJU)
San Francisco CA (SFO)
Sarasota FL (SRQ) 1 1 1
Seattle WA (SEA)
Tampa FL (TPA) 2 3 3
Tulsa OK (TUL) 2 1 2
Washington DC (DCA) 4 3 4
Wichita KS (ICT) 2 1 2
Total 106 86 113

2019 was 117 82 119

As WN continues to get closer to 2019 numbers, is there any thoughts on whether they end up needing more gates in D? I seem to recall there was discussions on them growing into more gates pre-COVID.

Jshank83 · Wed Mar 30, 2022 4:56 pm

dcaproducer wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
September schedule Fri Sat Sun

Atlanta GA (ATL) 3 3 3
Austin TX (AUS) 3 3 3
Baltimore MD (BWI) 3 4 3
Boston MA (BOS) 3 2 3
Cancun MX (CUN) 0 1 1
Charleston SC (CHS) 0 1 1
Charlotte NC (CLT) 1 0 1
Chicago IL (MDW) 8 4 5
Cleveland OH (CLE) 2 1 2
Columbus OH (CMH) 2 1 2
Dallas TX (DAL) 5 4 6
Denver CO (DEN) 6 5 6
Des Moines IA (DSM) 2 1 2
Destin FL (VPS) 0 1 1
Detroit MI (DTW) 2 1 1
Ft. Lauderdale FL (FLL) 2 1 2
Ft. Myers FL (RSW) 1 3 2
Houston TX (HOU) 4 3 3
Jacksonville FL (JAX) 1 1 1
Kansas City MO (MCI) 3 2 3
Las Vegas NV (LAS) 4 3 4
Little Rock AR (LIT) 2 1 2
Long Beach CA (LGB) 1 1 1
Los Angeles CA (LAX) 1 1 2
Miami FL (MIA) 1 1 1
Milwaukee WI (MKE) 2 1 1
Minneapolis MN (MSP) 2 1 1
Montego Bay JAM (MBJ)
Myrtle Beach SC (MYR) 0 1 0
Nashville TN (BNA) 4 2 4
New Orleans LA (MSY) 2 2 2
New York NY (LGA) 4 2 3
Oakland CA (OAK) 0 0 1
Oklahoma City OK (OKC) 2 1 2
Omaha NE (OMA) 3 2 2
Orange County CA (SNA) 0 0 1
Orlando FL (MCO) 4 4 5
Panama City FL (ECP) 0 1 2
Pensacola FL (PNS) 0 1 1
Philadelphia PA (PHL) 3 1 3
Pittsburgh PA (PIT) 1 1 2
Phoenix AZ (PHX) 3 4 3
Portland OR (PDX) 0 0 1
Raleigh NC (RDU) 1 1 2
Sacramento (SMF) 1 1 1
Salt Lake City (SLC)
San Antonio TX (SAT) 1 1 1
San Deigo CA (SAN) 1 1 1
San Jose CA (SJC) 1 0 1
San Juan PR (SJU)
San Francisco CA (SFO)
Sarasota FL (SRQ) 1 1 1
Seattle WA (SEA)
Tampa FL (TPA) 2 3 3
Tulsa OK (TUL) 2 1 2
Washington DC (DCA) 4 3 4
Wichita KS (ICT) 2 1 2
Total 106 86 113

2019 was 117 82 119

As WN continues to get closer to 2019 numbers, is there any thoughts on whether they end up needing more gates in D? I seem to recall there was discussions on them growing into more gates pre-COVID.

If summer doesn't get cut back it will be over 2019 numbers by a bit.

I was under the impression pre-covid it was happening but not sure now. I haven't heard anything on it.

As much as we need a new terminal I am a little fearful they will do basically nothing until it is built. So we go from a standstill due to privatization then to covid and now this far off terminal. A little frustrating.

dcaproducer · Wed Mar 30, 2022 9:44 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
dcaproducer wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
September schedule Fri Sat Sun

Atlanta GA (ATL) 3 3 3
Austin TX (AUS) 3 3 3
Baltimore MD (BWI) 3 4 3
Boston MA (BOS) 3 2 3
Cancun MX (CUN) 0 1 1
Charleston SC (CHS) 0 1 1
Charlotte NC (CLT) 1 0 1
Chicago IL (MDW) 8 4 5
Cleveland OH (CLE) 2 1 2
Columbus OH (CMH) 2 1 2
Dallas TX (DAL) 5 4 6
Denver CO (DEN) 6 5 6
Des Moines IA (DSM) 2 1 2
Destin FL (VPS) 0 1 1
Detroit MI (DTW) 2 1 1
Ft. Lauderdale FL (FLL) 2 1 2
Ft. Myers FL (RSW) 1 3 2
Houston TX (HOU) 4 3 3
Jacksonville FL (JAX) 1 1 1
Kansas City MO (MCI) 3 2 3
Las Vegas NV (LAS) 4 3 4
Little Rock AR (LIT) 2 1 2
Long Beach CA (LGB) 1 1 1
Los Angeles CA (LAX) 1 1 2
Miami FL (MIA) 1 1 1
Milwaukee WI (MKE) 2 1 1
Minneapolis MN (MSP) 2 1 1
Montego Bay JAM (MBJ)
Myrtle Beach SC (MYR) 0 1 0
Nashville TN (BNA) 4 2 4
New Orleans LA (MSY) 2 2 2
New York NY (LGA) 4 2 3
Oakland CA (OAK) 0 0 1
Oklahoma City OK (OKC) 2 1 2
Omaha NE (OMA) 3 2 2
Orange County CA (SNA) 0 0 1
Orlando FL (MCO) 4 4 5
Panama City FL (ECP) 0 1 2
Pensacola FL (PNS) 0 1 1
Philadelphia PA (PHL) 3 1 3
Pittsburgh PA (PIT) 1 1 2
Phoenix AZ (PHX) 3 4 3
Portland OR (PDX) 0 0 1
Raleigh NC (RDU) 1 1 2
Sacramento (SMF) 1 1 1
Salt Lake City (SLC)
San Antonio TX (SAT) 1 1 1
San Deigo CA (SAN) 1 1 1
San Jose CA (SJC) 1 0 1
San Juan PR (SJU)
San Francisco CA (SFO)
Sarasota FL (SRQ) 1 1 1
Seattle WA (SEA)
Tampa FL (TPA) 2 3 3
Tulsa OK (TUL) 2 1 2
Washington DC (DCA) 4 3 4
Wichita KS (ICT) 2 1 2
Total 106 86 113

2019 was 117 82 119

As WN continues to get closer to 2019 numbers, is there any thoughts on whether they end up needing more gates in D? I seem to recall there was discussions on them growing into more gates pre-COVID.

If summer doesn't get cut back it will be over 2019 numbers by a bit.

I was under the impression pre-covid it was happening but not sure now. I haven't heard anything on it.

As much as we need a new terminal I am a little fearful they will do basically nothing until it is built. So we go from a standstill due to privatization then to covid and now this far off terminal. A little frustrating.

Even if the ball got rolling today, a terminal is 10yrs off from completion. The cost to reopen D and give WN more space is probably relatively small compared to the amount of traffic it could bring to the airport. I suspect the airport wants to see traffic numbers return and then they’ll be happy to open a few more gates.

stlgph · Thu Mar 31, 2022 1:23 am

Southwest in St Louis is stagnant because ultimately, the entire airline is seemingly stagnant right now -- and don't get me wrong, I like Southwest and they're well run and all, but the St Louis operation isn't unique.

What I mean by that is look at Chicago, Dallas Love, Nashville ... you pretty much have the same cities offered. Yes, they serve more cities than their average destination, but the true uniqueness isn't there - such as Delta in Minneapolis going into the upper midwest etc. etc. etc. - Southwest has been connecting the dots across the existing route map and seemingly is fine with that.

You aren't seeing STL with a uniqueness of Greenville or Bellingham, and you aren't seeing Southwest as a whole adding the Fargos, Springfield/Branson or the Sioux Fallses of the world and using STL as a connecting focus over their other cities, etc.

That's the shift in strategy that's needed here to really make this place sing.

Clearly by the frequencies you've posted, SWA has a pretty good local o/d foothold here to these cities - probably seeing the same people always going to Southwest to book their trip to Vegas or booking Southwest to get down to their RSW condo, and booking SWA to get to the aunt in Cleveland etc etc- and given the frequencies to other key cities in the network, have no problems routing you through their Denvers, Midways, and Baltimores to get you there.

TWA302 · Thu Mar 31, 2022 4:12 am

stlgph wrote:
Southwest in St Louis is stagnant because ultimately, the entire airline is seemingly stagnant right now -- and don't get me wrong, I like Southwest and they're well run and all, but the St Louis operation isn't unique.

What I mean by that is look at Chicago, Dallas Love, Nashville ... you pretty much have the same cities offered. Yes, they serve more cities than their average destination, but the true uniqueness isn't there - such as Delta in Minneapolis going into the upper midwest etc. etc. etc. - Southwest has been connecting the dots across the existing route map and seemingly is fine with that.

You aren't seeing STL with a uniqueness of Greenville or Bellingham, and you aren't seeing Southwest as a whole adding the Fargos, Springfield/Branson or the Sioux Fallses of the world and using STL as a connecting focus over their other cities, etc.

That's the shift in strategy that's needed here to really make this place sing.

Clearly by the frequencies you've posted, SWA has a pretty good local o/d foothold here to these cities - probably seeing the same people always going to Southwest to book their trip to Vegas or booking Southwest to get down to their RSW condo, and booking SWA to get to the aunt in Cleveland etc etc- and given the frequencies to other key cities in the network, have no problems routing you through their Denvers, Midways, and Baltimores to get you there.

Probably one of the best posts I have read here in a long time.
I couldn't agree with you more.

stlgph · Thu Mar 31, 2022 12:55 pm

Well thanks.
As I said, I like Southwest and have found them to be (((mostly))) reliable - I'm just curious as to how long they can go without adding some key, smaller spokes to the network.

pmanni1 · Thu Mar 31, 2022 1:16 pm

stlgph wrote:
Southwest in St Louis is stagnant because ultimately, the entire airline is seemingly stagnant right now -- and don't get me wrong, I like Southwest and they're well run and all, but the St Louis operation isn't unique.

What I mean by that is look at Chicago, Dallas Love, Nashville ... you pretty much have the same cities offered. Yes, they serve more cities than their average destination, but the true uniqueness isn't there - such as Delta in Minneapolis going into the upper midwest etc. etc. etc. - Southwest has been connecting the dots across the existing route map and seemingly is fine with that.

You aren't seeing STL with a uniqueness of Greenville or Bellingham, and you aren't seeing Southwest as a whole adding the Fargos, Springfield/Branson or the Sioux Fallses of the world and using STL as a connecting focus over their other cities, etc.

That's the shift in strategy that's needed here to really make this place sing.

Clearly by the frequencies you've posted, SWA has a pretty good local o/d foothold here to these cities - probably seeing the same people always going to Southwest to book their trip to Vegas or booking Southwest to get down to their RSW condo, and booking SWA to get to the aunt in Cleveland etc etc- and given the frequencies to other key cities in the network, have no problems routing you through their Denvers, Midways, and Baltimores to get you there.

The cities that you mentioned that aren't served would require RJ's and WN isn't heading in that direction. Even larger cities like DSM,ICT & LIT that WN serves have load factors that hover in the 60s and low 70s.

stlgph · Thu Mar 31, 2022 1:41 pm

How do you know they would require RJs?
You don't.

And as this industry has proven time and time again - posting load factors doesn't mean squat unless you post the other factors in the accounting, yet, for some reason, entire threads (IND) live and die by this, but it's leaving out 99% of the story.

To spell this out so *everyone* at home can understand - let's play a simple math game.

Southwest has two beautiful 100 seat planes.
Out of St Louis, plane sells 90 seats (load factor 90%) at 70 bucks with 70 of them buying early bird at 20 bucks for $7,700.
Out of Des Moines, plane sells 60 seats (load factor 60%) at 130 bucks (because there's less options, more can be charged) with all 60 of them buying early bird at 20 bucks for $9,000.

Not hard to see the math here.

So you can dismiss Des Moines and the rest all you want for "low load factors" but there's obviously something going on there whether it be a higher point of sale, more people buying vacation packages, more people paying for extra luggage, more people using Rapid Rewards Visa cards, more people buying beverages on board, more people buying higher tier airfares, etc. etc. etc. to have little ole Des Moines with its 60% load factors from St Louis into services to Phoenix, Las Vegas, Denver, but, why would we let this discussion get in the way of a good naive narrative?

Midwestindy · Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:01 pm

stlgph wrote:
And as this industry has proven time and time again - posting load factors doesn't mean squat unless you post the other factors in the accounting, yet, for some reason, entire threads (IND) live and die by this, but it's leaving out 99% of the story.

In case you weren't aware, LF comes out monthly, yield comes out quarterly. Therefore one will obviously be discussed more frequently.

The latest available yield data is up to Q3 2021, when PSP funding was still being taken by the airlines, and airlines were flying excess capacity as a result. Rendering yield comparisons much more difficult, as many flights were added very late in the yield curve.

Have you personally ever looked at yields by route yourself? I know I have...

If you aren't happy with the presentation of data, then you are free to do your own research and post it. Which would be much more productive and mature, than complaining about others.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1438027&start=300

pmanni1 · Thu Mar 31, 2022 2:28 pm

stlgph wrote:
How do you know they would require RJs?
You don't.

And as this industry has proven time and time again - posting load factors doesn't mean squat unless you post the other factors in the accounting, yet, for some reason, entire threads (IND) live and die by this, but it's leaving out 99% of the story.

To spell this out so *everyone* at home can understand - let's play a simple math game.

Southwest has two beautiful 100 seat planes.
Out of St Louis, plane sells 90 seats (load factor 90%) at 70 bucks with 70 of them buying early bird at 20 bucks for $7,700.
Out of Des Moines, plane sells 60 seats (load factor 60%) at 130 bucks (because there's less options, more can be charged) with all 60 of them buying early bird at 20 bucks for $9,000.

Not hard to see the math here.

So you can dismiss Des Moines and the rest all you want for "low load factors" but there's obviously something going on there whether it be a higher point of sale, more people buying vacation packages, more people paying for extra luggage, more people using Rapid Rewards Visa cards, more people buying beverages on board, more people buying higher tier airfares, etc. etc. etc. to have little ole Des Moines with its 60% load factors from St Louis into services to Phoenix, Las Vegas, Denver, but, why would we let this discussion get in the way of a good naive narrative?

Who knows - maybe the cities mentioned would be gangbusters with WN's mainline. It is telling that those cities mentioned are almost all RJ's to the biggest hubs of MSP,DEN & ORD and they get skipped over by WN decade after decade. Maybe the low loads at DSM and ICT do make them enough to survive but at the same time there's a reason those cities see no expansion and have had the same 3-4 flights each day for years.

The only reason STL had service to so many small cities like that in the TWA era was because of Trans World Express which was not mainline.

ScottB · Thu Mar 31, 2022 5:20 pm

stlgph wrote:
Southwest in St Louis is stagnant because ultimately, the entire airline is seemingly stagnant right now -- and don't get me wrong, I like Southwest and they're well run and all, but the St Louis operation isn't unique.

WN in St. Louis is stagnant in no small part because greater St. Louis is stagnant. Regional population is up only 11% over the past 50 years. Compare that to the Houston metro which is up nearly 260% over the same period, or Phoenix which is up 366%. The NYC metro, which was notable for population decline in the 1970s, has grown by 18% since 1970. There aren't a lot of big metro areas which have done worse -- Cleveland and Pittsburgh come to mind. Even New Orleans has grown faster in the last 50 years than St. Louis and they had Katrina happen.

stlgph wrote:
What I mean by that is look at Chicago, Dallas Love, Nashville ... you pretty much have the same cities offered. Yes, they serve more cities than their average destination, but the true uniqueness isn't there - such as Delta in Minneapolis going into the upper midwest etc. etc. etc. - Southwest has been connecting the dots across the existing route map and seemingly is fine with that.

You aren't seeing STL with a uniqueness of Greenville or Bellingham, and you aren't seeing Southwest as a whole adding the Fargos, Springfield/Branson or the Sioux Fallses of the world and using STL as a connecting focus over their other cities, etc.

Connecting lots of small markets, with primarily connecting traffic, over a hub is not WN's business model. They are doing more of that now than they have historically, which is why they operate things like STL-DSM/ICT/LIT/TUL, and it's also something they've been a bit more aggressive about at DEN. Honestly, the probable reason they're doing that stuff over STL rather than DAL or MDW is due to capacity constraints at those airports.

But we're still coming out of a pandemic which saw huge cuts in the airline business and WN made changes to their network which were quite radical for them. They basically added about a decade's worth of new airports over the course of a year. Now they have to rebuild parts of their network which saw heavy cuts while maintaining service to 15 or so new markets and staffing back up from people leaving the company over the past two years.

The days of a legacy carrier hub are gone; none of the big three need STL for that role when they've got ORD/MSP/DTW/DFW/IAH.

AC4500 · Thu Mar 31, 2022 5:32 pm

pmanni1 wrote:
Handing SEA over to AS and SLC over to DL.

Jshank83 wrote:
September schedule Fri Sat Sun
Seattle WA (SEA)

I'm seeing SEA-STL on Sunday's in the schedule.

Jshank83 · Thu Mar 31, 2022 6:12 pm

AC4500 wrote:
pmanni1 wrote:
Handing SEA over to AS and SLC over to DL.

Jshank83 wrote:
September schedule Fri Sat Sun
Seattle WA (SEA)

I'm seeing SEA-STL on Sunday's in the schedule.

Sure enough. I missed it. So add one to Sunday to make it 114

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