Jshank83 wrote:Mannoroth wrote:Thinking about bit about how AA may grow both domestically and internationally in 2023 and see several things possibly happening.
Domestic:
AUS/BOS officially focus cities
IND/RDU get more p2p routes (including IND-MEM/MSY/MCI/RDU, RDU-BUF/MEM/JAX/MCI/STL)
Other p2p routes such as CVG-STL, MEM-TPA/MSY, OKC-BNA
Tough for me to see IND-MCI and CVG-STL happening.
I agree that AA adding STL-CVG nonstop service is unlikely to happen as
(a) the only reason for AA to add STL-CVG nonstop service would be to capture STL-CVG O&D traffic,
(b) AA already serves AUS/BOS/CLT/ORD/DFW/MIA/LGA/PHL/DCA nonstop from both CVG and STL,
(c) AA will be serving PHX nonstop from both CVG and STL with AA CVG-PHX nonstop service resuming on 9/8/2022,
(d) plenty of one-stop connecting options already there on AA to LAX from CVG through AUS/ORD/DFW/PHX,
(e) plenty of one-stop connecting options already there on AA to JFK/RDU from STL through CLT/ORD/DCA, and
(f) WN had O&D PDEW's of less than 40 passengers/day on routes such as STL-DSM/MCI/LIT/MKE/OKC/OMA/TUL/ICT in Q1 2022, whereas AA would likely need more STL-CVG O&D traffic to justify AA adding STL-CVG p2p nonstop service.
Here were the O&D PDEW's of STL-DSM/MCI/LIT/MKE/OKC/OMA/TUL/ICT in Q1 2022:
STL-OKC - 39 (PDEW of 30 on WN)
STL-OMA - 39 (PDEW of 34 on WN)
STL-MKE - 37 (PDEW of 31 on WN)
STL-MCI - 27 (PDEW of 27 on WN)
STL-TUL - 20 (PDEW of 17 on WN)
STL-LIT - 19 (PDEW of 19 on WN)
STL-ICT - 19 (PDEW of 16 on WN)
STL-DSM - 16 (PDEW of 14 on WN)
The average O&D PDEW of STL-CVG was 45 passengers/day in 2019, and CVG can likely support WN nonstop service out of STL if WN can stimulate STL-CVG O&D demand with the addition of WN STL-CVG nonstop service.
The O&D PDEW of STL-CVG was only 8 passengers/day in Q1 2022, which is nowhere near enough O&D demand to justify AA STL-CVG p2p nonstop service.
If STL-CVG nonstop service is added by WN, WN would also likely have significantly more connecting traffic on STL-CVG than what AA would be getting on AA STL-CVG p2p nonstop service.
There would also be connecting opportunities available through STL on WN to destinations that AA doesn't serve nonstop from STL such as ATL, DEN, DSM, HOU, LIT, MCI, MKE, MSP, MSY, OKC, OMA, MCO, SAT, SAN, TPA, TUL, and ICT.
WN also already has a significant FF base in the STL market to support STL-CVG nonstop service on WN.
WN would also be more likely to be successful on STL-CVG nonstop service than AA would be on STL-CVG p2p nonstop service with WN being able to more easily fill STL-CVG nonstop flights with the connecting opportunities that would be there through STL on WN.
Any chance to bring a 737 incident into the lime light the better they feel. But you are right, local news is usually like buzzards on a gut wagon with these things. 
