Flair Airlines Network Thread - 2022

markabcan · Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:38 pm

TexasAirCorp wrote:
Side note: maybe this is just me, but I can’t see how advertising ‘free’ flights, then automatically adding on a $50 hand baggage bundle on top of taxes is going to convince anyone to book. Surely you’d just feel conned at first glance if you went on expecting to pay nothing, then saw the total price was $70?

Well, in my case, and that of many others I'm sure, it isn't a big deal as the overall cost is still less than WestJet or Air Canada. Ever since WestJet starting charging for seat assignment, I got used to being upsold. Might as well start with a lower base fare. The à la carte model is not groundbreaking and many Canadians are already familiar with the concept.

As much as people seem to dislike Flair, there isn't any real love for WestJet or Air Canada either. I'll never forget the time I didn't pay for a seat assignment on WestJet and they purposely sat me and my wife far apart, even though the flight was half empty. Or the time my WestJet flight was cancelled in the eastern US and I couldn't reach anybody for help (for days). Or the numerous last minute WestJet cancellations during COVID so that they could consolidate flights. Flair might not be perfect, but nobody else is either.

I have flown Flair on many occasions, from Calgary to Vancouver, Abbotsford, Winnipeg, Ottawa, etc. Never had any problems, or any more problems that other competitors.

We need Flair to keep the larger carriers in check, before Flair, it cost more to fly from Calgary to Kelowna than to Toronto...

ElPistolero · Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:55 pm

cirrusdragoon wrote:
Just wait until oil hits $150 a barrel. https://financialpost.com/commodities/e ... y-jpmorgan

I remember 2008 well. cleaned out a lot of low fare airlines.

Given that fuel represents the single biggest element of an airline’s cost base , high prices , will be a factor playing into air fares later in the year.

We may see an exacerbated impact on airlines as it is unlikely they will have significant hedging in place following nearly two years of disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. A certain financial challenge to many airlines who may not be hedged.

It’s true that big oil prices might be the death of ULCCs.

Alternatively, in the Canadian context, it might just result in the (temporary?) evolution of ULCCs to LCCs - there is a fair bit of wiggle room for them to raise prices and still retain their status as cheaper/cheapest. There’s no electrical rail network - unlike in The EU - to keep a cap on their pricing (if anything, Via Rail’s diesel fleet will also become more expensive).

In any case, hedging is a double edged sword. If prices can go up by 50% in a quarter, they can go down that fast too.

ddp · Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:16 pm

TexasAirCorp wrote:
markabcan wrote:
These sales are far less desperate than many suggest.

I don’t know of any financially sound companies that would even consider essentially giving away an unlimited amount of their product for an entire day.

I remember reading an interview with the founder of the notoriously successful JetsGo after it went bust. It stated that he made the decision to sell every flight for 1 cent (plus taxes) a few days before its demise in a last-ditch attempt to get at least some cash. Seems as if history may be repeating itself.

Side note: maybe this is just me, but I can’t see how advertising ‘free’ flights, then automatically adding on a $50 hand baggage bundle on top of taxes is going to convince anyone to book. Surely you’d just feel conned at first glance if you went on expecting to pay nothing, then saw the total price was $70?

They are advertising free base fares. I booked one for the long weekend in February, Calgary to Toronto RT. $85 (Canadian). Air Canada and WS are both 400+
Flair is stupid cheap with this deal. February is a month Canaidans don't fly in big numbers domestically unless there is a need, ad in lock dows February was likely super slow for them anyway. This is likely just a marketing push to get name out there.

YEGFlyer · Thu Jan 27, 2022 12:34 am

Sad and predictable to see the usual 2 or 3 posters here claim imminent bankruptcy for Flair airlines. As has been noted "free" fares mean ancillary revenue. No different than the common 10 euro fares on RyanAir or other ULCCs.

IceCream · Thu Jan 27, 2022 2:56 am

YEGFlyer wrote:
Sad and predictable to see the usual 2 or 3 posters here claim imminent bankruptcy for Flair airlines. As has been noted "free" fares mean ancillary revenue. No different than the common 10 euro fares on RyanAir or other ULCCs.

I was thinking that even if they sold their base fare for 0 dollars does it really change their profit/loss-making when most fees are ancillary anyways (since a 0 dollar base fare of 5 dollar base fair isn't a huge difference)? But I could be wrong.

usxguy · Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:18 am

Is FLAIR offering anything inflight? *not that I'd expect inflight ancillaries to move the needle much...

sxf24 · Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:40 am

IceCream wrote:
YEGFlyer wrote:
Sad and predictable to see the usual 2 or 3 posters here claim imminent bankruptcy for Flair airlines. As has been noted "free" fares mean ancillary revenue. No different than the common 10 euro fares on RyanAir or other ULCCs.

I was thinking that even if they sold their base fare for 0 dollars does it really change their profit/loss-making when most fees are ancillary anyways (since a 0 dollar base fare of 5 dollar base fair isn't a huge difference)? But I could be wrong.

European and US LCCs make money off of very low base fares.

YEGFlyer · Thu Jan 27, 2022 4:11 am

IceCream wrote:
YEGFlyer wrote:
Sad and predictable to see the usual 2 or 3 posters here claim imminent bankruptcy for Flair airlines. As has been noted "free" fares mean ancillary revenue. No different than the common 10 euro fares on RyanAir or other ULCCs.

I was thinking that even if they sold their base fare for 0 dollars does it really change their profit/loss-making when most fees are ancillary anyways (since a 0 dollar base fare of 5 dollar base fair isn't a huge difference)? But I could be wrong.

Exactly - it is a great attention-grabber during a slow month for travel and allows them to earn ancillary revenue from those 'free' pax.

loonytoon44 · Fri Jan 28, 2022 10:19 pm

A company trying to stimulate travel and growth in markets that typically are abysmal….sounds like something the company was aiming to do. That being said, we should know by now free is never free.

yegbey01 · Wed Feb 02, 2022 1:11 am

I recently flew YYZ-YEG on Flair. Flawless experience from start to finish.

Was I ok paying $45 for a carry on? Yes, since I only paid $50 for my one way ticket.

on the other hand, my $265 YEG-YYZ was on an older A321 and the experience isn't any different.

would I fly Flair again...sure if the schedule works.

I don't get all the fuss.

CFWAD · Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:32 pm

Well the fuss is seeing, observing and hearing about their abysmal schedule.

While I am pleased to hear you had a good experience, it is most likely due to the fact they've significantly trimmed their January/February schedule. Whether that is is due to pilot training/staff sick calls, lack of reservations, over ambitious growth, etc., etc... that is yet to be seen.

Many Florida routes have been axed; will be curious how Mexico works out (who flies to MX from Canada without a vacation or all inclusive package? - I don't know, I don't go to MX so I am legitimately asking).

I am still beyond excited to see how SFO, Nashville, Denver, Chicago and NY work out.. A few of those airports are far from cheap to fly into.. And you can easily lose a Boeing for hours due to fog in SFO or ORD/NYC congestion. Far from a ULCC operation where you want to (and should/need) turn and burn your metal.

Lynx was smart. They waited for Flair to test the waters and water down their already saturated bank account. $129 million, with the issues Flair came with (debt/unions), is not a lot when you are growing an airline (pilot costs to train in U.S., rising oil costs, etc.)

I don't feel bad at all for the leadership at Kitchener/Waterloo for expanding and "wasting" money on this literal pipe dream. History has proven itself. And doing this during a pandemic, with money that is not yours to burn, is going to end up with those Max's at WS or in Queensland somewhere.

For the record, SJ spent about 3 years at Wizz ( a non-Canadian ULCC). The majority of his time was spent at a legacy, Star Alliance carrier. Between him, the CCO and the JetBlue wunderkind, they have been given a sandbox to play in. I wonder who at T7 will lose their job for burning well over 100 million.

A quick add, is that Indigo partners (SJ and Wizz alumni) are now literally competing with Flair. So, good luck Steve!

sxf24 · Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:50 pm

CFWAD wrote:
Well the fuss is seeing, observing and hearing about their abysmal schedule.

While I am pleased to hear you had a good experience, it is most likely due to the fact they've significantly trimmed their January/February schedule. Whether that is is due to pilot training/staff sick calls, lack of reservations, over ambitious growth, etc., etc... that is yet to be seen.

Many Florida routes have been axed; will be curious how Mexico works out (who flies to MX from Canada without a vacation or all inclusive package? - I don't know, I don't go to MX so I am legitimately asking).

I am still beyond excited to see how SFO, Nashville, Denver, Chicago and NY work out.. A few of those airports are far from cheap to fly into.. And you can easily lose a Boeing for hours due to fog in SFO or ORD/NYC congestion. Far from a ULCC operation where you want to (and should/need) turn and burn your metal.

Lynx was smart. They waited for Flair to test the waters and water down their already saturated bank account. $129 million, with the issues Flair came with (debt/unions), is not a lot when you are growing an airline (pilot costs to train in U.S., rising oil costs, etc.)

I don't feel bad at all for the leadership at Kitchener/Waterloo for expanding and "wasting" money on this literal pipe dream. History has proven itself. And doing this during a pandemic, with money that is not yours to burn, is going to end up with those Max's at WS or in Queensland somewhere.

For the record, SJ spent less than 3 years at Wizz ( a non-Canadian ULCC). The majority of his time was spent at a legacy, Star Alliance carrier. Between him, the CCO and the JetBlue wunderkind, they have been given a sandbox to play in. I wonder who at T7 will lose their job for burning well over 100 million.

A quick add, is that Indigo partners (SJ and Wizz alumni) are now literally competing with Flair. So, good luck Steve!

There’s a pretty dismal track record of Canadians successfully leading major Canadian airlines, so you might want to pull back on the prejudice.

I would also point out that the international management team at Wizz, both past and present, has an unbeatable track record of running a pan-national ULCC that serves customers from hundreds of unique backgrounds. Certainly more impressive than Jim Scott or other lauded Canadian airline executives.

CFWAD · Wed Feb 02, 2022 2:58 pm

Jim Scott is part of the problem that lead Flair to it's current situation. As an ex-pilot, and a terrible business plan with "New Leaf", I would hardly call him a lauded Canadian airline executive.

Look more into Calvin and Ben from AC. Clive and company at WS. Joe at 4N. JME at TS. Even Sunwing, for their faults, have been around over 20 years and now well surpassing that of C3.

So, no prejudice, just facts ;-)

And again, SJ was at Wizz for not more than a little over 3 years - out of their 19 years in service. And operating in the EU is nothing close to an operation in North America.

YEGFlyer · Wed Feb 02, 2022 4:03 pm

I'm sorry but some of the comments here are bordering on "hatred", not seeming to be based on anything, or twisting a lot of facts to suit a narrative. I wonder what the person's backstory is.

Flair is growing really fast - they are hiring again for direct entry captains and a bunch of other positions:
https://workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/def ... lang=en_CA
https://career.flyflair.com/jobs

YEGFlyer · Wed Feb 02, 2022 4:13 pm

Looks like all the YEG transborder destinations announced in late summer are going ahead, Burbank, LAS, Phoenix, PSP, all available for sale and operating - no suspensions despite omicron.

Will carefully watch Nashville to see if it launches in April as planned - track record is strong so far!

TexasAirCorp · Wed Feb 02, 2022 4:15 pm

YEGFlyer wrote:
Flair is growing really fast

And that's part of the problem; airlines that grow really fast don't have a good survival rate.

YEGFlyer · Wed Feb 02, 2022 4:39 pm

Don't forget this is an airline established in 2005 that has decided to try a new model and growth/scale is key to that model. Being underestimated is exactly where they want to be.

sxf24 · Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:15 pm

TexasAirCorp wrote:
YEGFlyer wrote:
Flair is growing really fast

And that's part of the problem; airlines that grow really fast don't have a good survival rate.

There are plenty of airlines that grew quickly and flourished in other parts of the world.

BA744PHX · Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:30 pm

YEGFlyer wrote:
Looks like all the YEG transborder destinations announced in late summer are going ahead, Burbank, LAS, Phoenix, PSP, all available for sale and operating - no suspensions despite omicron.

Will carefully watch Nashville to see if it launches in April as planned - track record is strong so far!

AZA/Phoenix has been operating since last October/November, what routes are you referring to about going ahead that aren't already operating?

cirrusdragoon · Wed Feb 02, 2022 5:50 pm

TexasAirCorp wrote:
YEGFlyer wrote:
Flair is growing really fast

And that's part of the problem; airlines that grow really fast don't have a good survival rate.

Norwegian was a prime example of failure. Bit off way too much than they could chew. Air Asia x as well

CFWAD · Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:14 pm

YEGFlyer wrote:
I'm sorry but some of the comments here are bordering on "hatred", not seeming to be based on anything, or twisting a lot of facts to suit a narrative. I wonder what the person's backstory is.

Flair is growing really fast - they are hiring again for direct entry captains and a bunch of other positions:
https://workforcenow.adp.com/mascsr/def ... lang=en_CA
https://career.flyflair.com/jobs

Not hatred by any stretch. Just comments coming from someone who knows the industry in this country, has been involved with various carriers (including F8), and doesn't like to see pilots working at car dealerships and FAs at McDonald's the day after SJ and GL burns through their cash cow of a investment. Keep in mind, this is an airline that has decided upon themselves to split their operating address between DOWNTOWN VANCOUVER, and the Edmonton airport.

Apart from AC (and maybe soon WS), there are no Max simulators in Canada, which already guarantees an added expense to their initial training. Hire all you want, but there are exceptional costs related to that. 5G was making their new hires cover 30k in costs -back in 2005 dollars.

I hope GL enjoys his F8 paid condo in Vancouver, before his move to Queensland later this year.

CFWAD · Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:18 pm

YEGFlyer wrote:
Don't forget this is an airline established in 2005 that has decided to try a new model and growth/scale is key to that model. Being underestimated is exactly where they want to be.

Established in 2005 under a completely different business model. Pilot/FA unions, contracted dispatch and maintenance, 3 liveries, 3 aircraft models, etc, etc all came with them when they decided to start a "ULCC". Hardly a page from any successful ULCC in the past...regardless of where they are in the world.

CFWAD · Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:24 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
YEGFlyer wrote:
Looks like all the YEG transborder destinations announced in late summer are going ahead, Burbank, LAS, Phoenix, PSP, all available for sale and operating - no suspensions despite omicron.

Will carefully watch Nashville to see if it launches in April as planned - track record is strong so far!

AZA/Phoenix has been operating since last October/November, what routes are you referring to about going ahead that aren't already operating?

Based on feedback from colleagues (and even just seeing posts online), a huge portion of the YOW/YUL/YKF - Florida routes were cut. SFB being a big one.

AZA has been operating, but has had many, many cancellations that F8 is blaming either on MX issues (on a Max 8?), crew shortage, or COVID. Same goes for YVR-BUR.

And I have not even ventured into the costs of operating Internationally, foreign exchange rates, lack of any presence south of the border. NA is not the EU. All this while still trying to grown and earn your domestic presence. By now, I am sure we are down to less than 50m to cover expenses.

CFWAD · Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:25 pm

sxf24 wrote:
TexasAirCorp wrote:
YEGFlyer wrote:
Flair is growing really fast

And that's part of the problem; airlines that grow really fast don't have a good survival rate.

There are plenty of airlines that grew quickly and flourished in other parts of the world.

Kindly allude to some examples?

ElPistolero · Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:35 pm

CFWAD wrote:
Jim Scott is part of the problem that lead Flair to it's current situation. As an ex-pilot, and a terrible business plan with "New Leaf", I would hardly call him a lauded Canadian airline executive.

Look more into Calvin and Ben from AC. Clive and company at WS. Joe at 4N. JME at TS. Even Sunwing, for their faults, have been around over 20 years and now well surpassing that of C3.

So, no prejudice, just facts

And again, SJ was at Wizz for not more than a little over 3 years - out of their 19 years in service. And operating in the EU is nothing close to an operation in North America.

AC’s BS is the CEO at AF/KL. WS’ CEO is a German from OS.

Blows a Jupiter sized hole in this “operating in the EU is nothing close to an operation in North America” claim, doesn’t it?

Yes, we get it. “Canadian experience” was all the rage 20 years ago. It’s been discredited now - the ON Human Rights Commission has described it as “prima facie discrimination”. It’s cost the economy billions in underemployment. Time to move on - dismissing an individual’s abilities, skill sets and successes because they’re from outside Canada or North America is … well, we all know what it is.

Need these disruptive folk who don’t buy into local orthodoxy to shake things up time and again. Especially given the state of Canadian aviation from 2015-2020 (high profits/bottom-of-the-barrel Y products).

ElPistolero · Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:49 pm

cirrusdragoon wrote:
TexasAirCorp wrote:
YEGFlyer wrote:
Flair is growing really fast

And that's part of the problem; airlines that grow really fast don't have a good survival rate.

Norwegian was a prime example of failure. Bit off way too much than they could chew. Air Asia x as well

On the flip side - Indigo. Went from zero to largest carrier in India in 6 years. In a domestic market with intense competition during those years, and a state owned carrier well known for distorting markets.

Not that F8 is guaranteed to turn into 9E; just that the record of fast growing carriers is, like all things, not stellar success or doom and gloom - just “mixed”. They aren’t playing long haul ops like DY or Air Asia X either.

CFWAD · Wed Feb 02, 2022 6:54 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
CFWAD wrote:
Jim Scott is part of the problem that lead Flair to it's current situation. As an ex-pilot, and a terrible business plan with "New Leaf", I would hardly call him a lauded Canadian airline executive.

Look more into Calvin and Ben from AC. Clive and company at WS. Joe at 4N. JME at TS. Even Sunwing, for their faults, have been around over 20 years and now well surpassing that of C3.

So, no prejudice, just facts

And again, SJ was at Wizz for not more than a little over 3 years - out of their 19 years in service. And operating in the EU is nothing close to an operation in North America.

AC’s BS is the CEO at AF/KL. WS’ CEO is a German from OS.

Blows a Jupiter sized hole in this “operating in the EU is nothing close to an operation in North America” claim, doesn’t it?

Yes, we get it. “Canadian experience” was all the rage 20 years ago. It’s been discredited now - the ON Human Rights Commission has described it as “prima facie discrimination”. It’s cost the economy billions in underemployment. Time to move on - dismissing an individual’s abilities, skill sets and successes because they’re from outside Canada or North America is … well, we all know what it is.

Need these disruptive folk who don’t buy into local orthodoxy to shake things up time and again. Especially given the state of Canadian aviation from 2015-2020 (high profits/bottom-of-the-barrel Y products).

I disregard your posts. Your are so out of the industry loop.. So Ben is now with AF/KLM.. Sad loss for Canada, good gain for CDG/AMS. Been "discredited"?? OK. Let us see how this plays out, I could be wrong, but I am sadly thinking I'm going to be right.

Canadian aviation grew astronomically during 2015-2019. People will pay what they are willing to pay. I again, go back to the insidious and ludicrous AIFs and NAV fees that plague this country.

And no, it does not blow a hole in my argument about EU vs NA. Just because your hire someone from the other side of the Atlantic does not guarantee you success,, hello?

Ben (and Calvin) claimed a huge success in establishing a 10+ year union agreement with the pilot group.. around the same that Ben was able to establish with AF/KLM. That still does not take away the incredible domestic costs it takes to operate an airline in the EU.

Get your facts together, my uneducated friend, before you post your arguments.

ElPistolero · Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:00 pm

CFWAD wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:
YEGFlyer wrote:
Looks like all the YEG transborder destinations announced in late summer are going ahead, Burbank, LAS, Phoenix, PSP, all available for sale and operating - no suspensions despite omicron.

Will carefully watch Nashville to see if it launches in April as planned - track record is strong so far!

AZA/Phoenix has been operating since last October/November, what routes are you referring to about going ahead that aren't already operating?

Based on feedback from colleagues (and even just seeing posts online), a huge portion of the YOW/YUL/YKF - Florida routes were cut. SFB being a big one.

AZA has been operating, but has had many, many cancellations that F8 is blaming either on MX issues (on a Max 8?), crew shortage, or COVID. Same goes for YVR-BUR.

And I have not even ventured into the costs of operating Internationally, foreign exchange rates, lack of any presence south of the border. NA is not the EU. All this while still trying to grown and earn your domestic presence. By now, I am sure we are down to less than 50m to cover expenses.

It is, indeed, amazing how F8 is the only Canadian airline having issues these days. All the other carriers are doing just fine.

Like the one that didn’t have to cut its entire Feb schedule by 20% (and isn’t getting absolutely slaughtered by the tripadvisor crowd that is now considered both expert and reliable).

Oh, wait.

YEGFlyer · Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:17 pm

Yep, or like Swoop who launched a bunch of routes with $1 or $7 fares (https://www.flyswoop.com/news/swoop-ann ... a-capital/), yet only Flair is the one that is "close to bankruptcy" when they have a seat sale.

CFWAD · Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:20 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
CFWAD wrote:
BA744PHX wrote:

AZA/Phoenix has been operating since last October/November, what routes are you referring to about going ahead that aren't already operating?

Based on feedback from colleagues (and even just seeing posts online), a huge portion of the YOW/YUL/YKF - Florida routes were cut. SFB being a big one.

AZA has been operating, but has had many, many cancellations that F8 is blaming either on MX issues (on a Max 8?), crew shortage, or COVID. Same goes for YVR-BUR.

And I have not even ventured into the costs of operating Internationally, foreign exchange rates, lack of any presence south of the border. NA is not the EU. All this while still trying to grown and earn your domestic presence. By now, I am sure we are down to less than 50m to cover expenses.

It is, indeed, amazing how F8 is the only Canadian airline having issues these days. All the other carriers are doing just fine.

Like the one that didn’t have to cut its entire Feb schedule by 20% (and isn’t getting absolutely slaughtered by the tripadvisor crowd that is now considered both expert and reliable).

Oh, wait.

You mean the 2 airlines that have publicly announced their schedule cuts and publicized it to their paying customers? Or the other carriers that grounded themselves during this pandemic? Versus using Airport Authority money to announce routes that you cancel 1/2 way through? Oh, wait...

CFWAD · Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:23 pm

YEGFlyer wrote:
Yep, or like Swoop who launched a bunch of routes with $1 or $7 fares (https://www.flyswoop.com/news/swoop-ann ... a-capital/), yet only Flair is the one that is "close to bankruptcy" when they have a seat sale.

You mean the pseudo airline that has the backing of their parent company, and that of a large ($5 billion+) venture-capitalist company? Yeah, next argument please :-)

YEGFlyer · Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:24 pm

BA744PHX wrote:
YEGFlyer wrote:
Looks like all the YEG transborder destinations announced in late summer are going ahead, Burbank, LAS, Phoenix, PSP, all available for sale and operating - no suspensions despite omicron.

Will carefully watch Nashville to see if it launches in April as planned - track record is strong so far!

AZA/Phoenix has been operating since last October/November, what routes are you referring to about going ahead that aren't already operating?

Refer to https://www.globenewswire.com/en/news-r ... tions.html

YEGFlyer · Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:28 pm

CFWAD wrote:
YEGFlyer wrote:
Yep, or like Swoop who launched a bunch of routes with $1 or $7 fares (https://www.flyswoop.com/news/swoop-ann ... a-capital/), yet only Flair is the one that is "close to bankruptcy" when they have a seat sale.

You mean the pseudo airline that has the backing of their parent company, and that of a large ($5 billion+) venture-capitalist company? Yeah, next argument please

This perfectly illustrates the point that Canada needs competition in the airline industry which proves the market for Flair, so thanks for the clarification!

YEGFlyer · Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:29 pm

Wondering if Flair will do any new route announcements between now and S22.. hoping to see YEG-ORD...

CFWAD · Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:36 pm

YEGFlyer wrote:
CFWAD wrote:
YEGFlyer wrote:
Yep, or like Swoop who launched a bunch of routes with $1 or $7 fares (https://www.flyswoop.com/news/swoop-ann ... a-capital/), yet only Flair is the one that is "close to bankruptcy" when they have a seat sale.

You mean the pseudo airline that has the backing of their parent company, and that of a large ($5 billion+) venture-capitalist company? Yeah, next argument please

This perfectly illustrates the point that Canada needs competition in the airline industry which proves the market for Flair, so thanks for the clarification!

What does it illustrate when an air carrier cannot survive with those costs?

Again, I go back to the basics in Canada. AIF and Nav Canada fees! To pay $30 just to walk thru thru the doors at YVR is insane! Especially on a so called "$30 air fare".

Until the government in Canada returns airport lands and reduces lease rates - ULCCs are lost to Canadians. Flair should have spent their investment $$ on lobbying for these changes vs their silly constant marketing changes. THAT would have made them a game changer - and possibly money maker!

YEGFlyer · Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:37 pm

"doesn't like to see pilots working at car dealerships and FAs at McDonald's"

Could have fooled me...

YEGFlyer · Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:38 pm

Re AIF: one word - incentives

CFWAD · Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:42 pm

YEGFlyer wrote:
"doesn't like to see pilots working at car dealerships and FAs at McDonald's"

Could have fooled me...

Not too sure what that means. But there actual pilots and FAs doing exactly what I mentioned. I saw it after C3, Jetsgo, Zoom, C6, the list can go on..

These people put a lot of time, money and effort for their work. I don't enjoy seeing good people on the streets after high paid execs ( GL/ SJ) are living a lavish life pre-bankruptcy.

It happens more than you think with airlines here in Canada.

ElPistolero · Wed Feb 02, 2022 7:51 pm

CFWAD wrote:

I disregard your posts. Your are so out of the industry loop.. So Ben is now with AF/KLM.. Sad loss for Canada, good gain for CDG/AMS. Been "discredited"?? OK. Let us see how this plays out, I could be wrong, but I am sadly thinking I'm going to be right.

AF/KL shareholders do not think “EU experience” matters. If they did, BS wouldn’t have been hired.

Onex does not think “Canadian experience” matters. Hence their recent CEO choice.

So yes, “discredited” is an accurate descriptor.

And no, I don’t see BS going to AF/KL as a “sad loss for Canada”. I’m one of those folk who take pride in seeing a Canadian at the helm of a foreign / global company. Different perspective - i.e. global.

CFWAD wrote:
Canadian aviation grew astronomically during 2015-2019. People will pay what they are willing to pay. I again, go back to the insidious and ludicrous AIFs and NAV fees that plague this country.

Demand didn’t grow, supply did (through the adoption of ULCC configurations). Highlighting how mismanaged the Canadian market actually is.

As an aside, in a priced-to-what-the-market-can-bear market, I’m ok with AIF fees. Airlines are still going to charge $X00 (what the market can bear) regardless of whether the AIF is $25 or $0. At least this way, consumers get some tangible benefit. What’s the alternative? 2019 fares for a ULCC seat, with an LGA circa-2010 airport experience.

Anyway, if the ULCCs move us away from this what-the-market-can-bear market, the AIFs and maybe even the NAV fees will start going down. They’re both not-for-profits, no? So volume is the simpler answer.

CFWAD wrote:
And no, it does not blow a hole in my argument about EU vs NA. Just because your hire someone from the other side of the Atlantic does not guarantee you success,, hello?

Doesn’t guarantee failure either, so what’s your point?

CFWAD wrote:
Ben (and Calvin) claimed a huge success in establishing a 10+ year union agreement with the pilot group.. around the same that Ben was able to establish with AF/KLM. That still does not take away the incredible domestic costs it takes to operate an airline in the EU.

Well, I guess WS, with its German from OS, is heading for a world of pain.

Or your argument doesn’t make any sense.

CFWAD wrote:
Get your facts together, my uneducated friend, before you post your arguments.

Consumers are a real nuisance, aren’t they? Noticing things like value-for-money, and how a certain airlines 30” Y seat, with no IFE, bears more than a passing resemblance to a ULCC product. They should all just quietly bow to their “superiors” is in the airline industry.

I might, one day, when the Canadian market is as competitive as the US or EU markets. Bit reticent, right now, to defer to (or learn from) anyone working in a protected sector. Like ‘learning’ about market economics from the supply management crowd, you know?

ElPistolero · Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:37 pm

CFWAD wrote:
What does it illustrate when an air carrier cannot survive with those costs?

Again, I go back to the basics in Canada. AIF and Nav Canada fees! To pay $30 just to walk thru thru the doors at YVR is insane! Especially on a so called "$30 air fare".

Until the government in Canada returns airport lands and reduces lease rates - ULCCs are lost to Canadians. Flair should have spent their investment $$ on lobbying for these changes vs their silly constant marketing changes. THAT would have made them a game changer - and possibly money maker!

Nah, I wouldn’t bother with removing AIFs until after we see how the ULCCs settle in, and how the government responds to any potential anti-competitive actions from the incumbents.

At the moment, airports can - and do - reduce fees to offset AIFs, airport rent etc for these ULCCs. More traffic = better for airport. ULCCs are more likely to deliver that. Its sufficient for now. Last thing we need is for AIFs to get slashed, ULCCs run out of the market through potentially illegal activities, and, in effect, a return to this abject duopoly with newly underfunded airports alongside our overpriced ULCC domestic/TB Y products.

In any event, slashing fees only makes sense in a competitive market, not the 2019 Canadian version. Best way to get there is to remove limits on foreign ownership a la Australia. That’ll be a real game changer - way more than AIFs or NAV or airport rent. Will certainly reduce the likelihood of pilots and FAs working at McDonalds because of illegal activities by other airlines.

MIflyer12 · Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:38 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
As an aside, in a priced-to-what-the-market-can-bear market, I’m ok with AIF fees. Airlines are still going to charge $X00 (what the market can bear) regardless of whether the AIF is $25 or $0. At least this way, consumers get some tangible benefit. What’s the alternative? 2019 fares for a ULCC seat, with an LGA circa-2010 airport experience.

Anyway, if the ULCCs move us away from this what-the-market-can-bear market, the AIFs and maybe even the NAV fees will start going down. They’re both not-for-profits, no? So volume is the simpler answer.

In your example, if more of ticket price goes to AIF instead of fare, supply will decline (marginal capacity will be cut to reflect net fare received by carriers) and prices will rise. Air fare markets do not reflect perfectly inelastic demand - demand will fall in response to higher ticket prices. But the effect of AIF doesn't matter if the carriers are ULCCs or other. Anybody spending good time in an Intermediate Microenomics or Public Finance class should be able to outline the effects correctly.

I agree that public facilities need to be funded - I don't want an intercity bus station experience, and AIFs (as user fees) instead of funding through general taxes has some appeal.

As for increased passenger volumes driving down AIF and NavCan fees -- that's not such a direct effect.

YEGFlyer · Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:30 pm

CFWAD wrote:
YEGFlyer wrote:
"doesn't like to see pilots working at car dealerships and FAs at McDonald's"

Could have fooled me...

Not too sure what that means. But there actual pilots and FAs doing exactly what I mentioned. I saw it after C3, Jetsgo, Zoom, C6, the list can go on..

These people put a lot of time, money and effort for their work. I don't enjoy seeing good people on the streets after high paid execs ( GL/ SJ) are living a lavish life pre-bankruptcy.

It happens more than you think with airlines here in Canada.

How about not talking down the airline in every forum you can find? Seems to me to be a pretty sure fire attempt to send a lot of pilots over to that used car dealership you mention. Having fewer airlines in the marketplace hiring won't help pilots' bargaining power at any of the legacies...

ElPistolero · Wed Feb 02, 2022 9:56 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
As an aside, in a priced-to-what-the-market-can-bear market, I’m ok with AIF fees. Airlines are still going to charge $X00 (what the market can bear) regardless of whether the AIF is $25 or $0. At least this way, consumers get some tangible benefit. What’s the alternative? 2019 fares for a ULCC seat, with an LGA circa-2010 airport experience.

Anyway, if the ULCCs move us away from this what-the-market-can-bear market, the AIFs and maybe even the NAV fees will start going down. They’re both not-for-profits, no? So volume is the simpler answer.

In your example, if more of ticket price goes to AIF instead of fare, supply will decline (marginal capacity will be cut to reflect net fare received by carriers) and prices will rise. Air fare markets do not reflect perfectly inelastic demand - demand will fall in response to higher ticket prices. But the effect of AIF doesn't matter if the carriers are ULCCs or other. Anybody spending good time in an Intermediate Microenomics or Public Finance class should be able to outline the effects correctly.

I agree that public facilities need to be funded - I don't want an intercity bus station experience, and AIFs (as user fees) instead of funding through general taxes has some appeal.

As for increased passenger volumes driving down AIF and NavCan fees -- that's not such a direct effect.

Yes. And no. Agree that the extra fees have inherent downsides for both sides of the demand/supply equation. But, the AIF disincentive can be offset by airports charging airlines lower fees elsewhere. Which is often the case, and should be factored in here. Therefore, I view it as a wash. AIF is a shiny object that needs to apply to everyone to stay valid, but there are other levers that can be used for specific airlines.

As to the rest, not arguing that the airfare market is perfectly inelastic, only that it is relatively more inelastic than the EU/US norm, which raises questions about how the AIF savings will be harnessed by airlines, and whether this will have upsides or downsides for consumers. If I were in the US, I would expect it to benefit consumers, either through expanded service or lower prices. In the Canadian duopoly, I expect it to be pocketed and booked as profit. Just a reflection of the generally risk-averse and protectionist mindset that has fostered this what-the-market-can-bear duopoly.

In which case, I’d rather the airport exercise other discretionary levers, than scrap a system wide AIF (which will be a pain to reinstate). At least until the Canadian market evolves to something closer to US/EU/Australia levels of functioning.

As to the impact of volumes on AIF, I consider a $25 AIF not increasing by more than 20% in 30 years (i.e. well below inflation) as pax savings (i.e. incremental savings that will become significant over time). But see your point - it’s not as “direct” as the AIF dropping to $24 overnight. (Granted, the cynic in me half expects to see a Guggenheim gallery at YYZ, rather than any type of saving, if volumes increase

).

CFWAD · Wed Feb 02, 2022 10:57 pm

ElPistolero wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
ElPistolero wrote:
As an aside, in a priced-to-what-the-market-can-bear market, I’m ok with AIF fees. Airlines are still going to charge $X00 (what the market can bear) regardless of whether the AIF is $25 or $0. At least this way, consumers get some tangible benefit. What’s the alternative? 2019 fares for a ULCC seat, with an LGA circa-2010 airport experience.

Anyway, if the ULCCs move us away from this what-the-market-can-bear market, the AIFs and maybe even the NAV fees will start going down. They’re both not-for-profits, no? So volume is the simpler answer.

In your example, if more of ticket price goes to AIF instead of fare, supply will decline (marginal capacity will be cut to reflect net fare received by carriers) and prices will rise. Air fare markets do not reflect perfectly inelastic demand - demand will fall in response to higher ticket prices. But the effect of AIF doesn't matter if the carriers are ULCCs or other. Anybody spending good time in an Intermediate Microenomics or Public Finance class should be able to outline the effects correctly.

I agree that public facilities need to be funded - I don't want an intercity bus station experience, and AIFs (as user fees) instead of funding through general taxes has some appeal.

As for increased passenger volumes driving down AIF and NavCan fees -- that's not such a direct effect.

Yes. And no. Agree that the extra fees have inherent downsides for both sides of the demand/supply equation. But, the AIF disincentive can be offset by airports charging airlines lower fees elsewhere. Which is often the case, and should be factored in here. Therefore, I view it as a wash. AIF is a shiny object that needs to apply to everyone to stay valid, but there are other levers that can be used for specific airlines.

As to the rest, not arguing that the airfare market is perfectly inelastic, only that it is relatively more inelastic than the EU/US norm, which raises questions about how the AIF savings will be harnessed by airlines, and whether this will have upsides or downsides for consumers. If I were in the US, I would expect it to benefit consumers, either through expanded service or lower prices. In the Canadian duopoly, I expect it to be pocketed and booked as profit. Just a reflection of the generally risk-averse and protectionist mindset that has fostered this what-the-market-can-bear duopoly.

In which case, I’d rather the airport exercise other discretionary levers, than scrap a system wide AIF (which will be a pain to reinstate). At least until the Canadian market evolves to something closer to US/EU/Australia levels of functioning.

As to the impact of volumes on AIF, I consider a $25 AIF not increasing by more than 20% in 30 years (i.e. well below inflation) as pax savings (i.e. incremental savings that will become significant over time). But see your point - it’s not as “direct” as the AIF dropping to $24 overnight. (Granted, the cynic in me half expects to see a Guggenheim gallery at YYZ, rather than any type of saving, if volumes increase ).

Well, guess what? When AIFs were introduced in Canada 25 years ago, they were $5 a piece. 25 years later, we are talking $35 AIFS across the country. So let us see where your post get's us in the next few years.

Come visit YVR. Where there is a 1/2 built parkade and new maintenance facility (partially funded by AIFs and, most recently reported by their CEO, not going to be finished anytime soon). Kindly look at Airport Authorities in Canada and their salaries compared to their clients (the airlines).

IceCream · Thu Feb 03, 2022 1:45 am

I wish Flair the best but I've checked their inaugural BNA flight in April and it's only sold roughly 14 seats (although these could only be people specifically choosing a seat for extra). But to the other poster's question, if Flair can start YEG-BNA they can surely start YEG-ORD.

CFWAD · Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:08 am

IceCream wrote:
I wish Flair the best but I've checked their inaugural BNA flight in April and it's only sold roughly 14 seats (although these could only be people specifically choosing a seat for extra). But to the other poster's question, if Flair can start YEG-BNA they can surely start YEG-ORD.

CP started a YEG-ORD back in '99 - with financial backing from AA and an alliance backing "connection bookings". Connections and all to an AA/ORD based network. Lasted less then a year.

qf789 · Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:09 am

Please stick to the topic that being a network thread for Flair and as such things such as current and future routes, frequency should being discussed. Those not interested in discussing network related items move on to the next topic rather than constantly trying to derail this thread. Additionally please be respectful to one another as some of the comments posted recently have been disrespectful and not within the spirits of a constructive discussion

IceCream · Thu Feb 03, 2022 2:37 pm

CFWAD wrote:
IceCream wrote:
I wish Flair the best but I've checked their inaugural BNA flight in April and it's only sold roughly 14 seats (although these could only be people specifically choosing a seat for extra). But to the other poster's question, if Flair can start YEG-BNA they can surely start YEG-ORD.

CP started a YEG-ORD back in '99 - with financial backing from AA and an alliance backing "connection bookings". Connections and all to an AA/ORD based network. Lasted less then a year.

Interesting. I wonder if it could work now, albeit with an airline like AC/UA/AA. However it doesn't seem like the best destination for Flair.

CFWAD · Thu Feb 03, 2022 3:36 pm

As an "ULCC", I am very curious to their U.S. expansion "plans".

ORD, JFK, DEN, SFO - yes, high demand destinations, but the expenses incurred to operate there are partially why AC/AA/UA fares justify it. Let alone, all carriers currently serving those routes from Canada offer connections. Nashville might work with their YEG/YYC country crowd.

Let's see how quickly they pull back on Cabo and ruin a ton of Albertan's vacations ;-)

.

And who from Canada would fly a ULCC (or any carrier with a final destination) to DEN in spring/summer? I guess those non-Canadian execs forgot to look past where people fly (and at what Non-EU costs) they encumber when they do so.

loonytoon44 · Thu Feb 03, 2022 5:08 pm

I agree with Oil and Gas doing better, there will be an uptick in the economy that will create spending again. That being said, wages and cost of living have not been kept up on, so people will still be looking for a more affordable option, some may even upgrade from flair. I imagine that all airlines will benefit from this.

cirrusdragoon wrote:
Just wait until oil hits $150 a barrel. https://financialpost.com/commodities/e ... y-jpmorgan

I remember 2008 well. cleaned out a lot of low fare airlines.

Given that fuel represents the single biggest element of an airline’s cost base , high prices , will be a factor playing into air fares later in the year.

We may see an exacerbated impact on airlines as it is unlikely they will have significant hedging in place following nearly two years of disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. A certain financial challenge to many airlines who may not be hedged.

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