Welcome to the Airbus A220 Sales Campaign Thread - 2022. Please continue to post your comments below

Link to last thread

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1457803

A summary of sales campaigns from the prior thread that are believed to still be active:
Active campaigns
1.Air Burkina
2. Possible top off order for 10 by AirCanada
3. Possible top off by AirFrance
4. Croatia Airways (possibly 2 others in Croatia, I don't know if they were serious or just kicking tires)
5. Green Africa
6. Israir
7. LOT (possibly a large order)
8. SAS (possibly a large order)
9. Uganda Airways
10. LH group for A319 (30 options exercised) and regional replacement (new order, I'm unsure of the possible size)
11. A new Ukraine airline MOU for 6
https://www.scramble.nl/civil-news/ukra ... al-airline
12. Aviation capital group MOU for 20
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468399

Realized campaigns in 2021: Qty 62 (a book to bill of just better than unity for 2021)
ALC 25
Ibom 10
ITA 7
Qantas 20 (MOU, but I am of the opinion almost certain to be finalized).

It looks like this one is no longer viable:
Truejet (possibly insolvent)

Lightsaber

Late edit:
I look forward to the A220 really "gaining its feet" in deliveries and sales in 2022. It has been a long time since we've had so many potential orders to discuss.

I'm eagerly waiting for A220-500 announcement. It probably won't happen this year, but there will be an explosion of orders if it does get announced.

tphuang wrote:

I'm eagerly waiting for A220-500 announcement. It probably won't happen this year, but there will be an explosion of orders if it does get announced.

Agreed, it will be a biggest aviation news since the 787 came out. The A220-500 sounds like the perfect plane for a lot of airlines and the future of aviation.

SEU wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I'm eagerly waiting for A220-500 announcement. It probably won't happen this year, but there will be an explosion of orders if it does get announced.

Agreed, it will be a biggest aviation news since the 787 came out. The A220-500 sounds like the perfect plane for a lot of airlines and the future of aviation.

I feel this is what Delta is waiting on before ordering a true A319/320 replacement. I feel if they wanted the Neo they would have already ordered it.

I am sure that the A225 would sell like hot cake (is this the right way to say it?), but it would induce Boeing to react as otherwise they would lose the entire NB market, while the status quo would benefit both. Classical game theory.

At most, the A225 would be announced if the A320 would not sell anymore as airlines would wait for the A225 to be announced, or if Boeing brings out the NSA.

In this sense, the question is not if, but when the optimal introduction time is for the A225. I think 2025, when Airbus says they become profitable on the 220 program through economies of scale alone.

I wonder what the NSA would look like? As of now, Airbus is likely to approach the midsized NB market by upsizing their smallest NB (with the a225) and the large NB with the succesful A321 and a potential A322 larger NB tackling the MoM.

It seems that Boeing would need to introduce two NB next, as a plane that covers both like the max7 and max10 is not exactly selling well. The Embraer deal could have done that from below at least a bit, but it seems that this ship has sailed.

The next step for Airbus in my opinion is to anounce the A220-300LR and make Neeleman ( Breeze ) and Gauss ( Air Baltic ) to exercise some if not all remaining options of the two airlines. Reminder : Breeze has 40 options and Air Baltic 30 options left to be firmed. Just my two
I hope that Omicron don`t stop the next big airshow and the likes of Udvar Hazy can do what they are best at it : placing orders !
https://britishairshows.com/farnborough-airshow

SEU wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I'm eagerly waiting for A220-500 announcement. It probably won't happen this year, but there will be an explosion of orders if it does get announced.

Agreed, it will be a biggest aviation news since the 787 came out. The A220-500 sounds like the perfect plane for a lot of airlines and the future of aviation.

Would also add another domestic replacement option for many of the airlines currently looking at replacing their elder fleet(s), depending on their route networks and circumstances.

Duke91 wrote:

I am sure that the A225 would sell like hot cake (is this the right way to say it?).

To answer your question. It is hotcakes. One word, and it is another term for pancakes.

I think as well that Airbus should launch the A220-500 sooner than later. This is the airplane that Airbus and Boeing were afraid of when Bombardier worked on the CSeries (CS500)! There is a reason, it would beat the A320neo and MAX8 handsdown in terms of efficiency on routes shorter than 3.5 - 4 hours. For Airbus this is no big deal as their bestseller is the A321 which is uneffected from an A225 and also they own the CSeries Programme anyway, but for Boeing this means real trouble as the MAX8 is their bestseller, which would be in direct competition to the A225 and only sell for its range, price or commonality then.

Not building the A225 would be the same mistake that Boeing made not building the 717-300 in the late 90s/early 2000s. And the best is that the A225 is no big deal, simple stretch by a few meters.

oldJoe wrote:

The next step for Airbus in my opinion is to anounce the A220-300LR and make Neeleman ( Breeze ) and Gauss ( Air Baltic ) to exercise some if not all remaining options of the two airlines. Reminder : Breeze has 40 options and Air Baltic 30 options left to be firmed. Just my two
I hope that Omicron don`t stop the next big airshow and the likes of Udvar Hazy can do what they are best at it : placing orders !
https://britishairshows.com/farnborough-airshow

July? We are talking about at least 2 new potential variants. The question is we will be coping well with the virus at this point in very distant future??

DLHAM wrote:

I think as well that Airbus should launch the A220-500 sooner than later. This is the airplane that Airbus and Boeing were afraid of when Bombardier worked on the CSeries (CS500)! There is a reason, it would beat the A320neo and MAX8 handsdown in terms of efficiency on routes shorter than 3.5 - 4 hours. For Airbus this is no big deal as their bestseller is the A321 which is uneffected from an A225 and also they own the CSeries Programme anyway, but for Boeing this means real trouble as the MAX8 is their bestseller, which would be in direct competition to the A225 and only sell for its range, price or commonality then.

Not building the A225 would be the same mistake that Boeing made not building the 717-300 in the late 90s/early 2000s. And the best is that the A225 is no big deal, simple stretch by a few meters.

A320NEO is also in trouble. So if Airbus is happy to kill it then that’s fine I guess

Opus99 wrote:

DLHAM wrote:

I think as well that Airbus should launch the A220-500 sooner than later. This is the airplane that Airbus and Boeing were afraid of when Bombardier worked on the CSeries (CS500)! There is a reason, it would beat the A320neo and MAX8 handsdown in terms of efficiency on routes shorter than 3.5 - 4 hours. For Airbus this is no big deal as their bestseller is the A321 which is uneffected from an A225 and also they own the CSeries Programme anyway, but for Boeing this means real trouble as the MAX8 is their bestseller, which would be in direct competition to the A225 and only sell for its range, price or commonality then.

Not building the A225 would be the same mistake that Boeing made not building the 717-300 in the late 90s/early 2000s. And the best is that the A225 is no big deal, simple stretch by a few meters.

A320NEO is also in trouble. So if Airbus is happy to kill it then that’s fine I guess

The A320NEO is also in trouble? With 3748 orders? Not in the real world.

RalXWB wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

DLHAM wrote:

I think as well that Airbus should launch the A220-500 sooner than later. This is the airplane that Airbus and Boeing were afraid of when Bombardier worked on the CSeries (CS500)! There is a reason, it would beat the A320neo and MAX8 handsdown in terms of efficiency on routes shorter than 3.5 - 4 hours. For Airbus this is no big deal as their bestseller is the A321 which is uneffected from an A225 and also they own the CSeries Programme anyway, but for Boeing this means real trouble as the MAX8 is their bestseller, which would be in direct competition to the A225 and only sell for its range, price or commonality then.

Not building the A225 would be the same mistake that Boeing made not building the 717-300 in the late 90s/early 2000s. And the best is that the A225 is no big deal, simple stretch by a few meters.

A320NEO is also in trouble. So if Airbus is happy to kill it then that’s fine I guess

The A320NEO is also in trouble? With 3748 orders? Not in the real world.

Conventional thinking is that the GTF is better balanced/more optimal for the 321 than the 320, and that therefore the 320 will slowly lose market presence in the years ahead. It's not going to happen quickly imho...but some of those orders are speculative and some will be converted to 321s.

RalXWB wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

DLHAM wrote:

I think as well that Airbus should launch the A220-500 sooner than later. This is the airplane that Airbus and Boeing were afraid of when Bombardier worked on the CSeries (CS500)! There is a reason, it would beat the A320neo and MAX8 handsdown in terms of efficiency on routes shorter than 3.5 - 4 hours. For Airbus this is no big deal as their bestseller is the A321 which is uneffected from an A225 and also they own the CSeries Programme anyway, but for Boeing this means real trouble as the MAX8 is their bestseller, which would be in direct competition to the A225 and only sell for its range, price or commonality then.

Not building the A225 would be the same mistake that Boeing made not building the 717-300 in the late 90s/early 2000s. And the best is that the A225 is no big deal, simple stretch by a few meters.

A320NEO is also in trouble. So if Airbus is happy to kill it then that’s fine I guess

The A320NEO is also in trouble? With 3748 orders? Not in the real world.

If the 225 puts the max 8 in trouble why doesn’t it put the 320NEO in trouble? Or is it just the usual double standard fashion?

Opus99 wrote:

DLHAM wrote:

I think as well that Airbus should launch the A220-500 sooner than later. This is the airplane that Airbus and Boeing were afraid of when Bombardier worked on the CSeries (CS500)! There is a reason, it would beat the A320neo and MAX8 handsdown in terms of efficiency on routes shorter than 3.5 - 4 hours. For Airbus this is no big deal as their bestseller is the A321 which is uneffected from an A225 and also they own the CSeries Programme anyway, but for Boeing this means real trouble as the MAX8 is their bestseller, which would be in direct competition to the A225 and only sell for its range, price or commonality then.

Not building the A225 would be the same mistake that Boeing made not building the 717-300 in the late 90s/early 2000s. And the best is that the A225 is no big deal, simple stretch by a few meters.

A320NEO is also in trouble. So if Airbus is happy to kill it then that’s fine I guess

Kind of, it would definitely eat into A320neo sales, but its left pocket or right pocket for Airbus. The A32X line is extremely well occupied by the A321, which brings in more money, and the remaining A320s on order. The point is that the A225 can compete much better against the MAX8 than the A20N in many cases.

DLHAM wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

DLHAM wrote:

I think as well that Airbus should launch the A220-500 sooner than later. This is the airplane that Airbus and Boeing were afraid of when Bombardier worked on the CSeries (CS500)! There is a reason, it would beat the A320neo and MAX8 handsdown in terms of efficiency on routes shorter than 3.5 - 4 hours. For Airbus this is no big deal as their bestseller is the A321 which is uneffected from an A225 and also they own the CSeries Programme anyway, but for Boeing this means real trouble as the MAX8 is their bestseller, which would be in direct competition to the A225 and only sell for its range, price or commonality then.

Not building the A225 would be the same mistake that Boeing made not building the 717-300 in the late 90s/early 2000s. And the best is that the A225 is no big deal, simple stretch by a few meters.

A320NEO is also in trouble. So if Airbus is happy to kill it then that’s fine I guess

Kind of, it would definitely eat into A320neo sales, but its left pocket or right pocket for Airbus. The A32X line is extremely well occupied by the A321, which brings in more money, and the remaining A320s on order. The point is that the A225 can compete much better against the MAX8 than the A20N in many cases.

That is correct. Airbus will have to see those 320N out anyway. I see 225 coming online. But it’s a chess game right. If it comes online (marketable) in the next 2 years and it takes 5 years to bring to market. That’s 28/29. At that same time a new family of aircraft will be coming up that will undermine 225. So that’s another aspect of it that Airbus has to consider

Opus99 wrote:

DLHAM wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

A320NEO is also in trouble. So if Airbus is happy to kill it then that’s fine I guess

Kind of, it would definitely eat into A320neo sales, but its left pocket or right pocket for Airbus. The A32X line is extremely well occupied by the A321, which brings in more money, and the remaining A320s on order. The point is that the A225 can compete much better against the MAX8 than the A20N in many cases.

That is correct. Airbus will have to see those 320N out anyway. I see 225 coming online. But it’s a chess game right. If it comes online (marketable) in the next 2 years and it takes 5 years to bring to market. That’s 28/29. At that same time a new family of aircraft will be coming up that will undermine 225. So that’s another aspect of it that Airbus has to consider

Of course, but do you think a simple A220-Stretch will take that long? AFAIK Bombardier had their plans for a CS500 ready to go. This Stretch was considered from the very beginning.
All depends on that Boeing does next, new 757/767 sized airplane? New 737 sized airplane? Both at the same time is not possible, covering all with one plane as well. But whatever they do an A220 Stretch IMO is low work, low cost, low risk. They should not wait too long.

DLHAM wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

DLHAM wrote:

Kind of, it would definitely eat into A320neo sales, but its left pocket or right pocket for Airbus. The A32X line is extremely well occupied by the A321, which brings in more money, and the remaining A320s on order. The point is that the A225 can compete much better against the MAX8 than the A20N in many cases.

That is correct. Airbus will have to see those 320N out anyway. I see 225 coming online. But it’s a chess game right. If it comes online (marketable) in the next 2 years and it takes 5 years to bring to market. That’s 28/29. At that same time a new family of aircraft will be coming up that will undermine 225. So that’s another aspect of it that Airbus has to consider

Of course, but do you think a simple A220-Stretch will take that long? AFAIK Bombardier had their plans for a CS500 ready to go. This Stretch was considered from the very beginning.
All depends on that Boeing does next, new 757/767 sized airplane? New 737 sized airplane? Both at the same time is not possible, covering all with one plane as well. But whatever they do an A220 Stretch IMO is low work, low cost, low risk. They should not wait too long.

Yeah. I think it will take 5. Thé 321XLR is taking 4 and that’s just an extra tank and few modifications. It will happen though and I think it will be a success, the 220 family is a very good family. And a 500 rounds that off. But they have to think about how it fits into their strategy. They could just apply new tech engines on fhe 220 next decade. And then make the 321 it’s own family that can maybe grow into a 767 size? That is have the 321-200 as one size (the current size) and maybe a 321-300 and then a 321-400. I don’t know. That’s what I think

I don't get it, the inference is that A320 size aircraft are going out of fashion and are too small but the A220-500 is being worshipped here as a direct replacement - where would the market be then? Also, there would be a lot of push back from European unions if the A320 replacement was only built in the US/Canada? They would they need to look at producing it un Europe if it is going to be such a success

Are they waiting for some Airshow to announce this 4000nm A220-300? If so, which one?
https://simpleflying.com/breeze-airbus-a220-aux-tank/

DLHAM wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

DLHAM wrote:

I think as well that Airbus should launch the A220-500 sooner than later. This is the airplane that Airbus and Boeing were afraid of when Bombardier worked on the CSeries (CS500)! There is a reason, it would beat the A320neo and MAX8 handsdown in terms of efficiency on routes shorter than 3.5 - 4 hours. For Airbus this is no big deal as their bestseller is the A321 which is uneffected from an A225 and also they own the CSeries Programme anyway, but for Boeing this means real trouble as the MAX8 is their bestseller, which would be in direct competition to the A225 and only sell for its range, price or commonality then.

Not building the A225 would be the same mistake that Boeing made not building the 717-300 in the late 90s/early 2000s. And the best is that the A225 is no big deal, simple stretch by a few meters.

A320NEO is also in trouble. So if Airbus is happy to kill it then that’s fine I guess

Kind of, it would definitely eat into A320neo sales, but its left pocket or right pocket for Airbus. The A32X line is extremely well occupied by the A321, which brings in more money, and the remaining A320s on order. The point is that the A225 can compete much better against the MAX8 than the A20N in many cases.

As others are saying, it's possible the the 738/A320 market space is dwindling in size and Airbus are waiting to see how far that trend goes - if it really is dying then does it make sense to try to fill the space when it does not represent either pocket? Would Airbus do better by investing in an A322 or 767 equivalent? I don't think it is as straightforward a decision as some are painting it.

Opus99 wrote:

DLHAM wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

That is correct. Airbus will have to see those 320N out anyway. I see 225 coming online. But it’s a chess game right. If it comes online (marketable) in the next 2 years and it takes 5 years to bring to market. That’s 28/29. At that same time a new family of aircraft will be coming up that will undermine 225. So that’s another aspect of it that Airbus has to consider

Of course, but do you think a simple A220-Stretch will take that long? AFAIK Bombardier had their plans for a CS500 ready to go. This Stretch was considered from the very beginning.
All depends on that Boeing does next, new 757/767 sized airplane? New 737 sized airplane? Both at the same time is not possible, covering all with one plane as well. But whatever they do an A220 Stretch IMO is low work, low cost, low risk. They should not wait too long.

Yeah. I think it will take 5. Thé 321XLR is taking 4 and that’s just an extra tank and few modifications. It will happen though and I think it will be a success, the 220 family is a very good family. And a 500 rounds that off. But they have to think about how it fits into their strategy. They could just apply new tech engines on fhe 220 next decade. And then make the 321 it’s own family that can maybe grow into a 767 size? That is have the 321-200 as one size (the current size) and maybe a 321-300 and then a 321-400. I don’t know. That’s what I think

Playing with the location of highly combustible fluids is probably a completely different risk category compared to adding a existing frame or 2. And from my limited knowledge, newly introduced risk is quite leading in certification effort. I don’t think it will take 5 years, but we will have to wait for the announcement of Airbus. Usually that is the best indicator…

JonesNL wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

DLHAM wrote:

Of course, but do you think a simple A220-Stretch will take that long? AFAIK Bombardier had their plans for a CS500 ready to go. This Stretch was considered from the very beginning.
All depends on that Boeing does next, new 757/767 sized airplane? New 737 sized airplane? Both at the same time is not possible, covering all with one plane as well. But whatever they do an A220 Stretch IMO is low work, low cost, low risk. They should not wait too long.

Yeah. I think it will take 5. Thé 321XLR is taking 4 and that’s just an extra tank and few modifications. It will happen though and I think it will be a success, the 220 family is a very good family. And a 500 rounds that off. But they have to think about how it fits into their strategy. They could just apply new tech engines on fhe 220 next decade. And then make the 321 it’s own family that can maybe grow into a 767 size? That is have the 321-200 as one size (the current size) and maybe a 321-300 and then a 321-400. I don’t know. That’s what I think

Playing with the location of highly combustible fluids is probably a completely different risk category compared to adding a existing frame or 2. And from my limited knowledge, newly introduced risk is quite leading in certification effort. I don’t think it will take 5 years, but we will have to wait for the announcement of Airbus. Usually that is the best indicator…

Okay 4? 4.5? 350F is taking about 4 years. ALC thinks it will be 5 because of just general delays with these things but let’s see

Opus99 wrote:

DLHAM wrote:

I think as well that Airbus should launch the A220-500 sooner than later. This is the airplane that Airbus and Boeing were afraid of when Bombardier worked on the CSeries (CS500)! There is a reason, it would beat the A320neo and MAX8 handsdown in terms of efficiency on routes shorter than 3.5 - 4 hours. For Airbus this is no big deal as their bestseller is the A321 which is uneffected from an A225 and also they own the CSeries Programme anyway, but for Boeing this means real trouble as the MAX8 is their bestseller, which would be in direct competition to the A225 and only sell for its range, price or commonality then.

Not building the A225 would be the same mistake that Boeing made not building the 717-300 in the late 90s/early 2000s. And the best is that the A225 is no big deal, simple stretch by a few meters.

A320NEO is also in trouble. So if Airbus is happy to kill it then that’s fine I guess

No in this world is the A320neo in trouble. The A320neo is the second best selling narrow body model, right behind the A321neo. It matches about all sales, all models of the 737MAX and as a model it out delivers all 737MAX models combined 2 to 1.

The main problem a A220-500 would face against the A320 are production rates. I doubt we will see a A220-500 before Airbus hits a production rate of 15 to 20 frames a month in regards to the A220.

PhilipBass wrote:

Are they waiting for some Airshow to announce this 4000nm A220-300? If so, which one?
https://simpleflying.com/breeze-airbus-a220-aux-tank/

The business jet, the "Two Twenty" has developed the aux-tanks as your article notes. What needs to happen is a small MTOW increase on the A220-300 (and -100) to have useful payload with even more fuel in passenger duty. Now, if you were flying an A221 from LCY-JFK with all lie flat business seats, the current MTOW would work. Breeze will fly more passengers, so needs to be able to lift more weight.

I fully expect AirBaltic, JetBlue, Delta, Korean Air, and Breeze to purchase the extended range A223 when available. Possibly even A221s (in very limited numbers). While it will be a niche, I could overall see a hundred+ more sold. Not bad to add to the backlog...

Lightsaber

Opus99 wrote:

JonesNL wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

Yeah. I think it will take 5. Thé 321XLR is taking 4 and that’s just an extra tank and few modifications. It will happen though and I think it will be a success, the 220 family is a very good family. And a 500 rounds that off. But they have to think about how it fits into their strategy. They could just apply new tech engines on fhe 220 next decade. And then make the 321 it’s own family that can maybe grow into a 767 size? That is have the 321-200 as one size (the current size) and maybe a 321-300 and then a 321-400. I don’t know. That’s what I think

Playing with the location of highly combustible fluids is probably a completely different risk category compared to adding a existing frame or 2. And from my limited knowledge, newly introduced risk is quite leading in certification effort. I don’t think it will take 5 years, but we will have to wait for the announcement of Airbus. Usually that is the best indicator…

Okay 4? 4.5? 350F is taking about 4 years. ALC thinks it will be 5 because of just general delays with these things but let’s see

Again different risk. A lot of structural changes are implemented in a F conversion…

JonesNL wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

JonesNL wrote:

Playing with the location of highly combustible fluids is probably a completely different risk category compared to adding a existing frame or 2. And from my limited knowledge, newly introduced risk is quite leading in certification effort. I don’t think it will take 5 years, but we will have to wait for the announcement of Airbus. Usually that is the best indicator…

Okay 4? 4.5? 350F is taking about 4 years. ALC thinks it will be 5 because of just general delays with these things but let’s see

Again different risk. A lot of structural changes are implemented in a F conversion…

So how long do you reckon?

787-10 took 5 years and that was a simple stretch

mjoelnir wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

DLHAM wrote:

I think as well that Airbus should launch the A220-500 sooner than later. This is the airplane that Airbus and Boeing were afraid of when Bombardier worked on the CSeries (CS500)! There is a reason, it would beat the A320neo and MAX8 handsdown in terms of efficiency on routes shorter than 3.5 - 4 hours. For Airbus this is no big deal as their bestseller is the A321 which is uneffected from an A225 and also they own the CSeries Programme anyway, but for Boeing this means real trouble as the MAX8 is their bestseller, which would be in direct competition to the A225 and only sell for its range, price or commonality then.

Not building the A225 would be the same mistake that Boeing made not building the 717-300 in the late 90s/early 2000s. And the best is that the A225 is no big deal, simple stretch by a few meters.

A320NEO is also in trouble. So if Airbus is happy to kill it then that’s fine I guess

No in this world is the A320neo in trouble. The A320neo is the second best selling narrow body model, right behind the A321neo. It matches about all sales, all models of the 737MAX and as a model it out delivers all 737MAX models combined 2 to 1.

The main problem a A220-500 would face against the A320 are production rates. I doubt we will see a A220-500 before Airbus hits a production rate of 15 to 20 frames a month in regards to the A220.

Not before max crashes. We are talking about obsolescence. 220 still cannot match max sales or production for a long time. If it kills max 8. It will kill 320NEO. But I don’t expect many of you to agree.

Opus99 wrote:

mjoelnir wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

A320NEO is also in trouble. So if Airbus is happy to kill it then that’s fine I guess

No in this world is the A320neo in trouble. The A320neo is the second best selling narrow body model, right behind the A321neo. It matches about all sales, all models of the 737MAX and as a model it out delivers all 737MAX models combined 2 to 1.

The main problem a A220-500 would face against the A320 are production rates. I doubt we will see a A220-500 before Airbus hits a production rate of 15 to 20 frames a month in regards to the A220.

Not before max crashes. We are talking about obsolescence. 220 still cannot match max sales or production for a long time. If it kills max 8. It will kill 320NEO. But I don’t expect many of you to agree.

A220 great plane? Yes? Profitable yet? Likely not. So why would A lose money killing the a320? I believe they will have to improve the supply chain and production lines and then they will do that.

The only airlines asking for an A220-500 are those that already have A220s, not a big customer pool on which to base ditching the A320

Those who want to upgrade from 300 to 500 will happily pay to do so.
Those who bought 737-7 and A319 will flock to it.

They'd better have it ready to go when they announce it as those with A220-300 orders won't want to take delivery of their 300s and will want to wait for the 500.

Opus99 wrote:

That is correct. Airbus will have to see those 320N out anyway. I see 225 coming online. But it’s a chess game right. If it comes online (marketable) in the next 2 years and it takes 5 years to bring to market. That’s 28/29. At that same time a new family of aircraft will be coming up that will undermine 225. So that’s another aspect of it that Airbus has to consider

Airlines operating the A 320 family and maybe even using cans may not be interested or need smaller A220 models or even the proposed A220-500. While the latter may be more efficient than an A320 it would mean two distinctly different aircraft requiring different infrastructure assuming they also operate the A321. British Airways Heathrow operations come to mind

Any new offering would be good for passengers and airlines alike.

It'll be up to Airbus to figure out if the complex numbers work or not. I'm thinking yes once the following occurs;
a) notable production cost reductions on current backlog.
b) conversion of existing a320 production to a220-500 in Europe.
c) further investment from Quebec pension fund to ramp up Mirabel production.

I suspect that much of the design work is already done and that on some level it is ongoing/progressing to some degree. This part of the equation will be synched with the progress on the other 3 factors that I listed and will likely be the easiest piece of the puzzle to be accomplished.

There are likely some pretty good spreadsheets that contain the evolution of all these factors. I'd love to see them.

Opus99 wrote:

JonesNL wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

Okay 4? 4.5? 350F is taking about 4 years. ALC thinks it will be 5 because of just general delays with these things but let’s see

Again different risk. A lot of structural changes are implemented in a F conversion…

So how long do you reckon?

787-10 took 5 years and that was a simple stretch

Less than 4, more than 2. Depends on prework and scope. Off course this is without delays which have more common lately…

lightsaber wrote:

PhilipBass wrote:

Are they waiting for some Airshow to announce this 4000nm A220-300? If so, which one?
https://simpleflying.com/breeze-airbus-a220-aux-tank/

The business jet, the "Two Twenty" has developed the aux-tanks as your article notes. What needs to happen is a small MTOW increase on the A220-300 (and -100) to have useful payload with even more fuel in passenger duty. Now, if you were flying an A221 from LCY-JFK with all lie flat business seats, the current MTOW would work. Breeze will fly more passengers, so needs to be able to lift more weight.

I fully expect AirBaltic, JetBlue, Delta, Korean Air, and Breeze to purchase the extended range A223 when available. Possibly even A221s (in very limited numbers). While it will be a niche, I could overall see a hundred+ more sold. Not bad to add to the backlog...

Lightsaber

Imho not just MTOW but MLW also. The original MLW was ridiculously low imho, and the higher one that was offered as an option is barely workable in many cases.

So Airbus will build the A225, which takes sales from the A320neo. But the A320 has good margins, but the A220 is still probably in a loss position.

To play this out Airbus will be reducing deliveries of the A320neo by 300 per year and the A220 will increase by the same. However, current A220 production is around 50 per year, ramping up for sure but Rate 30 seems far off. Further, Airbus has multiple lines, I recall somewhere above half of the production cannot make the A321, but the new line can be all A321.

With a long backlog, it seems there is a limit of orders to around the build rate, this year it had basically a 1:1 book to bill ratio.

It's not a 1 A220-500 replace 1 A320NEO scenario. I could be a MAX8 vs A220 scenario where A320NEO has no chance. It could be an A220-300 vs A220-500 scenario where the bigger model will be more profitable. It could be a scenario of A320NEO + small number of A321NEO vs A220-500 and a large number of A321NEO.

If Airbus needs to get to a point where it has A220-100/300/500 to cover 100 to 170 seat market and A320.5 to A322 covering 180 to 250 seat market, why keep holding this up? Why delay this project when there are no other clear viable project on the current pipeline?

tphuang wrote:

It's not a 1 A220-500 replace 1 A320NEO scenario. It could be a MAX8 vs A220 scenario where A320NEO has no chance. It could be an A220-300 vs A220-500 scenario where the bigger model will be more profitable. It could be a scenario of A320NEO + small number of A321NEO vs A220-500 and a large number of A321NEO.

Exactly

We have to remember that Airbus totally controls the A220's pricings / marketing.

In any sale compaign, Airbus will ensure that the overalll result maximise profits and keeps Boeing / Embraer out.

That scenario already occured, like those past A220/A321NEO tendem sales etc.

oldJoe wrote:

The next step for Airbus in my opinion is to anounce the A220-300LR and make Neeleman ( Breeze ) and Gauss ( Air Baltic ) to exercise some if not all remaining options of the two airlines. Reminder : Breeze has 40 options and Air Baltic 30 options left to be firmed. Just my two
I hope that Omicron don`t stop the next big airshow and the likes of Udvar Hazy can do what they are best at it : placing orders !
https://britishairshows.com/farnborough-airshow

The last 20 A220-300’s Breeze ordered were the LR’s.

flightsimer wrote:

oldJoe wrote:

The next step for Airbus in my opinion is to anounce the A220-300LR and make Neeleman ( Breeze ) and Gauss ( Air Baltic ) to exercise some if not all remaining options of the two airlines. Reminder : Breeze has 40 options and Air Baltic 30 options left to be firmed. Just my two
I hope that Omicron don`t stop the next big airshow and the likes of Udvar Hazy can do what they are best at it : placing orders !
https://britishairshows.com/farnborough-airshow

The last 20 A220-300’s Breeze ordered were the LR’s.

Source? Because the LR hasn’t been launched.

No mention in Airbus release: https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/pres ... der-for-20

tphuang wrote:

It's not a 1 A220-500 replace 1 A320NEO scenario. I could be a MAX8 vs A220 scenario where A320NEO has no chance. It could be an A220-300 vs A220-500 scenario where the bigger model will be more profitable. It could be a scenario of A320NEO + small number of A321NEO vs A220-500 and a large number of A321NEO.

If Airbus needs to get to a point where it has A220-100/300/500 to cover 100 to 170 seat market and A320.5 to A322 covering 180 to 250 seat market, why keep holding this up? Why delay this project when there are no other clear viable project on the current pipeline?

I think one big obstacle is pilot ratings - if A220 and A320 does not have cockpit commonality, it makes the A220 a harder sell. However, if the A220-500 becomes pervasive airlines will scramble to order it, just like they are scrambling to order A321s.

Airbus needs to look at its A220-A320 portfolio as one family so that they can come up with a sustainable business plan for all family models. But please don't take too long and procrastinate - you might end up like Boeing missing the middle of the market boat....

To be fair, Airbus is in the driving seat in the NB market and they should try to stay there. What is by far the biggest challenge Boeing and Airbus are meeting? The next generational change. The time they have to move away from the classic A320 and 737 families. Now why is this change such a big challenge? For the first time in the history of aviation the two manufacturers have to introduce a new type (or even just a derivative) that has to be produced at a rate of 60+ aircraft a month almost from the get go. Of course they can overlap production a bit but the moment the next thing comes, sales of the old will dry up. So the balance act of winding down one line and ramping up the next one (extremely fast) while also making sure cash flow is there to finance this will be a real challenge.

Even Airbus can not just slap a new wing on the A321Neo and call it quits. To be competitive it needs a highly automated production line and will also have to go trough full certification. No one will allow another 777X clusterfuck certification. A new wing on the A321 will mean a full certification. There will be a lot of changes and it will be a new airplane even if it keeps the old metal fuselage. So it will be no walk in the park.

Now what is the real amazing trump card Airbus has. It is the A220 that is not profitable yet but it is ready to go. Airbus will have to bring the -500 to market to cover the 100-160 seat market with a production rate of around 25 a month in 2028. It is way simpler to introduce a product when another one is making money. It also allows Airbus to design the next NB in the 170-300 seat class without compromises.

So what could happen is, that Airbus will use the A321N fuselage and stretch it, put a new Wing on it and replace the cockpit with an upgraded A220 cockpit. It is a new aircraft but Airbus will have two NB-families with the same cockpit ranging from 100-300 seats, with possible ranges of 5000+nm.

This can not be matched by Boeing with one aircraft. Now for this to happen Airbus needs to push hard for market share with the A220 and this will only happen if Airbus can offer the A225. If sales go through the roof, introduce a third line of A220 production (best dedicated to the 225 alone) in Europe. Then the foundation is there to go the next step with the A321.

FluidFlow wrote:

To be fair, Airbus is in the driving seat in the NB market and they should try to stay there. What is by far the biggest challenge Boeing and Airbus are meeting? The next generational change. The time they have to move away from the classic A320 and 737 families. Now why is this change such a big challenge? For the first time in the history of aviation the two manufacturers have to introduce a new type (or even just a derivative) that has to be produced at a rate of 60+ aircraft a month almost from the get go. Of course they can overlap production a bit but the moment the next thing comes, sales of the old will dry up. So the balance act of winding down one line and ramping up the next one (extremely fast) while also making sure cash flow is there to finance this will be a real challenge.

Even Airbus can not just slap a new wing on the A321Neo and call it quits. To be competitive it needs a highly automated production line and will also have to go trough full certification. No one will allow another 777X clusterfuck certification. A new wing on the A321 will mean a full certification. There will be a lot of changes and it will be a new airplane even if it keeps the old metal fuselage. So it will be no walk in the park.

Now what is the real amazing trump card Airbus has. It is the A220 that is not profitable yet but it is ready to go. Airbus will have to bring the -500 to market to cover the 100-160 seat market with a production rate of around 25 a month in 2028. It is way simpler to introduce a product when another one is making money. It also allows Airbus to design the next NB in the 170-300 seat class without compromises.

So what could happen is, that Airbus will use the A321N fuselage and stretch it, put a new Wing on it and replace the cockpit with an upgraded A220 cockpit. It is a new aircraft but Airbus will have two NB-families with the same cockpit ranging from 100-300 seats, with possible ranges of 5000+nm.

This can not be matched by Boeing with one aircraft. Now for this to happen Airbus needs to push hard for market share with the A220 and this will only happen if Airbus can offer the A225. If sales go through the roof, introduce a third line of A220 production (best dedicated to the 225 alone) in Europe. Then the foundation is there to go the next step with the A321.

Boeing is mos likely going to do this. As it is the only option they have. Max 9/10 are to be replaced by smallest member of the 797 family and then max replacement will be -8 and -7 I think

flee wrote:

tphuang wrote:

It's not a 1 A220-500 replace 1 A320NEO scenario. I could be a MAX8 vs A220 scenario where A320NEO has no chance. It could be an A220-300 vs A220-500 scenario where the bigger model will be more profitable. It could be a scenario of A320NEO + small number of A321NEO vs A220-500 and a large number of A321NEO.

If Airbus needs to get to a point where it has A220-100/300/500 to cover 100 to 170 seat market and A320.5 to A322 covering 180 to 250 seat market, why keep holding this up? Why delay this project when there are no other clear viable project on the current pipeline?

I think one big obstacle is pilot ratings - if A220 and A320 does not have cockpit commonality, it makes the A220 a harder sell. However, if the A220-500 becomes pervasive airlines will scramble to order it, just like they are scrambling to order A321s.

Airbus needs to look at its A220-A320 portfolio as one family so that they can come up with a sustainable business plan for all family models. But please don't take too long and procrastinate - you might end up like Boeing missing the middle of the market boat....

Not sure the sequence you proposed is the best option they have. Product portfolio wise the following makes more sense in my view:

1. Launch A322 with new wing in 2023

2. See conversion of more A320 to bigger siblings, A320 backlog should shrink by another 1500 due to conversions and deliveries

3. See profitability A220 as viable and A321-2 line filled to the brim

4. Launch A225 in 2024

5. Start investigating/developing A220neo and A32x replacement based on new Engine tech(Rise) with cockpit commonality

6. Launch A220neo and A32x replacement first halve of next decade with EIS around 2040

A320.5 only makes sense when the A321 and potential A322 don't fill the backlog for 4 or more years...

Airbus is the world's largest aircraft manufacturer, and is especially strong in the narrowbody segment, and have ambition to further increase their market share.

1) Competition
I don't think it is the slightest problematic to have some overlap in capacity between the A320 and the potential A220-500. This overlap will only strengthen what Airbus can offer airlines in competition with Boeing. In the coming years, Airbus will be competing with both Comac and UAC, especially for orders outside the Western world.

I don't think Airbus nor Boeing should underestimate the C919 or the MC-21. They are clean sheet designs, with carbon wings, and with the same LEAP and PW GTF engines. Boeing with their aging 737 will probably have the most to loose, while Airbus is better positioned with both the A320 and A220 family in their product portfolio.

2) Overlap, not a bad thing
Large airlines will have no issues having more than one narrowbody family, but smaller airlines can only have one. It is therefore necessary to have some overlap, so that smaller airlines can be a single family operator and still have aircraft available with the capacity they need. By offering the A220-500, more airlines can be exclusive A220 operators like AirBaltic.

At one point Boeing had several (four?) narrowbody families in production at the same time, with quite some overlap. They choose to put all their eggs in one basket, the 737. I hope Airbus is smarter than that. There will come a time when the A320 family needs to be replaced. It won't be replaced the A220 family. When it is time to replace the A320 family with a clean sheet narrowbody, the A220 will be at its top, making the A220 really important during a critical transition period.

3) A220-500 can't match A320 capacity
If the A220-300 is stretched by 3.71 meters, the same difference as A220-100 to A220-300, the A220-500 will almost be at 737-10 length. In passenger capacity it will still be smaller than the A320. At some point a six abreast aircraft will be more efficient. I think a stretch of more than 3.71 meters, for example matching A321/757-200 lenght, is unrealistic.

jbs2886 wrote:

flightsimer wrote:

oldJoe wrote:

The next step for Airbus in my opinion is to anounce the A220-300LR and make Neeleman ( Breeze ) and Gauss ( Air Baltic ) to exercise some if not all remaining options of the two airlines. Reminder : Breeze has 40 options and Air Baltic 30 options left to be firmed. Just my two
I hope that Omicron don`t stop the next big airshow and the likes of Udvar Hazy can do what they are best at it : placing orders !
https://britishairshows.com/farnborough-airshow

The last 20 A220-300’s Breeze ordered were the LR’s.

Source? Because the LR hasn’t been launched.

No mention in Airbus release: https://www.airbus.com/en/newsroom/pres ... der-for-20

Internal

reidar76 wrote:

3) A220-500 can't match A320 capacity
If the A220-300 is stretched by 3.71 meters, the same difference as A220-100 to A220-300, the A220-500 will almost be at 737-10 length. In passenger capacity it will still be smaller than the A320. At some point a six abreast aircraft will be more efficient. I think a stretch of more than 3.71 meters, for example matching A321/757-200 lenght, is unrealistic.

For comparison, the MD80 family(MD-81/82/83/88), another 5 abreast airliner, is 45.1m in length while the MDG90 is 46.6m. The A220-330 is 38.7m. The 737-10 is 43.8m due to landing gear limitations

I don't see Airbus ever incorporating the 220 cockpit into the 320 series. Too much pride. Not invented here syndrome. Instead, at some point in the future, when business is better, I foresee them designing a new common cockpit for both (and perhaps their entire product line) that will easily facilitate not only FANS but single pilot ops.....with an eye towards future future no pilot ops. Mho

I think Airbus will only introduce A225 in 2030 or 2035. Why bother doing it sooner? Screw the customers. They can wait.