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Wneast wrote:vtchaz78 wrote:https://onemileatatime.com/news/airbus-terminates-qatar-airways-contract/
Seems some airframes may have just become available...
I hope B6 takes advantage of this
vtchaz78 wrote:Wneast wrote:vtchaz78 wrote:https://onemileatatime.com/news/airbus-terminates-qatar-airways-contract/
Seems some airframes may have just become available...
I hope B6 takes advantage of this
I hope that if they do, they can actually staff it.
vtchaz78 wrote:https://onemileatatime.com/news/airbus-terminates-qatar-airways-contract/
Seems some airframes may have just become available...
vtchaz78 wrote:https://onemileatatime.com/news/airbus-terminates-qatar-airways-contract/
Seems some airframes may have just become available...
StinkyPinky wrote:vtchaz78 wrote:Wneast wrote:I hope B6 takes advantage of this
I hope that if they do, they can actually staff it.
The flight attendant hiring window is open again. In the past, it was usually open for no more than a week, this time it's open all the way until March 18th. Not sure if this means increased growth or desperate for staffing.
tphuang wrote:StinkyPinky wrote:vtchaz78 wrote:
I hope that if they do, they can actually staff it.
The flight attendant hiring window is open again. In the past, it was usually open for no more than a week, this time it's open all the way until March 18th. Not sure if this means increased growth or desperate for staffing.
Or it could be both? They do need to hire enough staff to be ready for summer peak schedule. They may also be close to signing for some more deliveries soon. I guess we might hear more next week on earnings call.
It's obvious by now that labor market is really tight. Everyone is trying to hire. The legacies are hiring. The ULCCs are hiring and JetBlue is hiring. The legacies are clearly plundering both RJ and LCCs for crew member. Similarly, LCCs are plundering RJs for crew member. It seems to me that LCCs need to be aggressive in hiring to cover for any attrition to legacy carriers. At the end of the day, the RJs are the one with real staffing issues. That will constrain legacy growth. But JetBlue needs to be aggressive to get its staffing level. I'd imagine JetBlue should at least be more attractive to prospective employees than ULCCs. Long term, it's going to grow faster than all except the ULCCs and probably will have widebody aircraft at some point.
jfklganyc wrote:CEO Robin and other business leaders met with the new Manhattan District Attorney today after woman was pushed onto subway tracks in NYC.
Employees are worried about taking the train
I wonder if this plays into future decisions regarding support centers. I know they recently committed to keeping HQ in NYC
maverick4002 wrote:jfklganyc wrote:CEO Robin and other business leaders met with the new Manhattan District Attorney today after woman was pushed onto subway tracks in NYC.
Employees are worried about taking the train
I wonder if this plays into future decisions regarding support centers. I know they recently committed to keeping HQ in NYC
This seems....extra. Are the people working in LIC not from NYC? It seems an overtop reaction that so many people are scared that the CEO had to meet with the DA? Idk
CRJ200flyer wrote:tphuang wrote:StinkyPinky wrote:
The flight attendant hiring window is open again. In the past, it was usually open for no more than a week, this time it's open all the way until March 18th. Not sure if this means increased growth or desperate for staffing.
Or it could be both? They do need to hire enough staff to be ready for summer peak schedule. They may also be close to signing for some more deliveries soon. I guess we might hear more next week on earnings call.
It's obvious by now that labor market is really tight. Everyone is trying to hire. The legacies are hiring. The ULCCs are hiring and JetBlue is hiring. The legacies are clearly plundering both RJ and LCCs for crew member. Similarly, LCCs are plundering RJs for crew member. It seems to me that LCCs need to be aggressive in hiring to cover for any attrition to legacy carriers. At the end of the day, the RJs are the one with real staffing issues. That will constrain legacy growth. But JetBlue needs to be aggressive to get its staffing level. I'd imagine JetBlue should at least be more attractive to prospective employees than ULCCs. Long term, it's going to grow faster than all except the ULCCs and probably will have widebody aircraft at some point.
JetBlue has been hiring a lot of pilots, but also has had significant training delays, particularly on the E190 (footprints ballooning from normal 6 weeks to over 3 months). They’ve been hiring and training new instructors to catch up, but it takes time. In my friend’s class, a few people left for United in the middle of training.
Regarding the path for a pilot at JetBlue, there are a lot of factors that depend on the pilots’ base preferences, aircraft goals, type of flying desired, etc. While JetBlue has plans to grow, for a pilot looking at their seniority, JetBlue would have to grow massively in order to beat the attrition currently ongoing at the majors. One of my friends hired a few months ago won’t reach 50% seniority in the company until 2040 because the pilot group is relatively young. The impact of that varies by base. Regarding widebody aircraft, that rumor has been going for 10+ years and no one really believes it anymore. The biggest thing is getting more 220s and 321s on property ASAP.
jfklganyc wrote:maverick4002 wrote:jfklganyc wrote:CEO Robin and other business leaders met with the new Manhattan District Attorney today after woman was pushed onto subway tracks in NYC.
Employees are worried about taking the train
I wonder if this plays into future decisions regarding support centers. I know they recently committed to keeping HQ in NYC
This seems....extra. Are the people working in LIC not from NYC? It seems an overtop reaction that so many people are scared that the CEO had to meet with the DA? Idk
He wasnt alone.
A bunch of the city’s business leaders met with him today.
The email from corporate was surprisingly blunt. They are concerned about Public Safety in NYC
December17 wrote:A pilot supplemental system bid has been announced to open in February indicating a shuffle in staffing between fleets/bases. Interesting to see for what reason.
Wneast wrote:December17 wrote:A pilot supplemental system bid has been announced to open in February indicating a shuffle in staffing between fleets/bases. Interesting to see for what reason.
What you think could be the reasoning
JoseSalazar wrote:Wneast wrote:December17 wrote:A pilot supplemental system bid has been announced to open in February indicating a shuffle in staffing between fleets/bases. Interesting to see for what reason.
What you think could be the reasoning
Higher than planned attrition, higher than planned growth, shuffling some staff between bases (only thing I can think is more in LAX needed than originally planned, maybe true elsewhere as well), maybe they will announce more planes in the earnings call. That’s all the possibilities I can think of. Maybe the initial post-Scott network strategy is being implemented, or maybe the recovery is shaping up to be different than planned back in august on the last bid. Should find out the numbers in a month and will have a better idea then. But, as I stated back in august when the last bid came out, there are a ton of vacancies still, with enough to basically fill the training center to capacity as it is. Not sure how much more can be done there than is already on the books for the year. But, maybe with the new 220 and 320 sim and the rented 190 sim, they can get more through than I think they can.
11C wrote:CRJ200flyer wrote:tphuang wrote:
Or it could be both? They do need to hire enough staff to be ready for summer peak schedule. They may also be close to signing for some more deliveries soon. I guess we might hear more next week on earnings call.
It's obvious by now that labor market is really tight. Everyone is trying to hire. The legacies are hiring. The ULCCs are hiring and JetBlue is hiring. The legacies are clearly plundering both RJ and LCCs for crew member. Similarly, LCCs are plundering RJs for crew member. It seems to me that LCCs need to be aggressive in hiring to cover for any attrition to legacy carriers. At the end of the day, the RJs are the one with real staffing issues. That will constrain legacy growth. But JetBlue needs to be aggressive to get its staffing level. I'd imagine JetBlue should at least be more attractive to prospective employees than ULCCs. Long term, it's going to grow faster than all except the ULCCs and probably will have widebody aircraft at some point.
JetBlue has been hiring a lot of pilots, but also has had significant training delays, particularly on the E190 (footprints ballooning from normal 6 weeks to over 3 months). They’ve been hiring and training new instructors to catch up, but it takes time. In my friend’s class, a few people left for United in the middle of training.
Regarding the path for a pilot at JetBlue, there are a lot of factors that depend on the pilots’ base preferences, aircraft goals, type of flying desired, etc. While JetBlue has plans to grow, for a pilot looking at their seniority, JetBlue would have to grow massively in order to beat the attrition currently ongoing at the majors. One of my friends hired a few months ago won’t reach 50% seniority in the company until 2040 because the pilot group is relatively young. The impact of that varies by base. Regarding widebody aircraft, that rumor has been going for 10+ years and no one really believes it anymore. The biggest thing is getting more 220s and 321s on property ASAP.
I agree with everything you’ve said here. The wide body rumor always annoyed the hell out of me. It was so obviously dangled as a distraction (look at the shiny thing, and ignore the cluster flock unfolding before your eyes). Mark Powers, when he was still the CFO, answered that tired old ‘when are we getting wide bodies?’ question with, “ never, as long as I’m writing the checks.” Considering our market valuation at the time, it was the only possible outcome. I actually think it is much more likely given our current situation, but it never was a real possibility in the past.
While JetBlue has plans to grow, for a pilot looking at their seniority, JetBlue would have to grow massively in order to beat the attrition currently ongoing at the majors. One of my friends hired a few months ago won’t reach 50% seniority in the company until 2040 because the pilot group is relatively young.
tphuang wrote:While JetBlue has plans to grow, for a pilot looking at their seniority, JetBlue would have to grow massively in order to beat the attrition currently ongoing at the majors. One of my friends hired a few months ago won’t reach 50% seniority in the company until 2040 because the pilot group is relatively young.
If you look at April, B6 is up 7% in block hours vs 2019. DL is down 15% vs 2019 (probably even more among mainline). So while JetBlue is relatively young, it could also have 30 to 40% more mainline block hours by 2025 vs the Big 3 compared to 2019. If the last major bid added 19% to the active pilot ranks, who is to say they can't be close to double 2019's active pilot ranks by late 2020s?
tphuang wrote:I'd imagine JetBlue should at least be more attractive to prospective employees than ULCCs.
StinkyPinky wrote:vtchaz78 wrote:Wneast wrote:I hope B6 takes advantage of this
I hope that if they do, they can actually staff it.
The flight attendant hiring window is open again. In the past, it was usually open for no more than a week, this time it's open all the way until March 18th. Not sure if this means increased growth or desperate for staffing.
CobaltScar wrote:tphuang wrote:I'd imagine JetBlue should at least be more attractive to prospective employees than ULCCs.
You'd be imagining wrong then because Spirit , while being slightly lower in pay, has superior work rules in their contract than the new JetBlue contract for FAs. Also, jetBlue FAs must work far harder in the aircraft doing all their service compared to Spirit who just sell things to a cabin that mostly does not buy anything. Neither does Spirit have to clean their own planes , unlike B6. Spirit also has shorter duty days. Actually the list is too long to type all out.
BlueBaller wrote:CobaltScar wrote:tphuang wrote:I'd imagine JetBlue should at least be more attractive to prospective employees than ULCCs.
You'd be imagining wrong then because Spirit , while being slightly lower in pay, has superior work rules in their contract than the new JetBlue contract for FAs. Also, jetBlue FAs must work far harder in the aircraft doing all their service compared to Spirit who just sell things to a cabin that mostly does not buy anything. Neither does Spirit have to clean their own planes , unlike B6. Spirit also has shorter duty days. Actually the list is too long to type all out.
Honest question but why do you still work at JetBlue if every one of your posts is critical at best?
CobaltScar wrote:You'd be imagining wrong then because Spirit , while being slightly lower in pay, has superior work rules in their contract than the new JetBlue contract for FAs. Also, jetBlue FAs must work far harder in the aircraft doing all their service compared to Spirit who just sell things to a cabin that mostly does not buy anything. Neither does Spirit have to clean their own planes , unlike B6. Spirit also has shorter duty days. Actually the list is too long to type all out.
tphuang wrote:CobaltScar wrote:You'd be imagining wrong then because Spirit , while being slightly lower in pay, has superior work rules in their contract than the new JetBlue contract for FAs. Also, jetBlue FAs must work far harder in the aircraft doing all their service compared to Spirit who just sell things to a cabin that mostly does not buy anything. Neither does Spirit have to clean their own planes , unlike B6. Spirit also has shorter duty days. Actually the list is too long to type all out.
If only every ULCCs are NK or that NK FAs themselves think the same way. I'm sure ULCCs FAs also have a lot of tough components to their job that non-ULCC FAs don't have to deal with.
Also, I hope you don't mind me being skeptical of your views given that the vast majority of your posts have been critical and not of the constructive variety.
CRJ200flyer wrote:tphuang wrote:While JetBlue has plans to grow, for a pilot looking at their seniority, JetBlue would have to grow massively in order to beat the attrition currently ongoing at the majors. One of my friends hired a few months ago won’t reach 50% seniority in the company until 2040 because the pilot group is relatively young.
If you look at April, B6 is up 7% in block hours vs 2019. DL is down 15% vs 2019 (probably even more among mainline). So while JetBlue is relatively young, it could also have 30 to 40% more mainline block hours by 2025 vs the Big 3 compared to 2019. If the last major bid added 19% to the active pilot ranks, who is to say they can't be close to double 2019's active pilot ranks by late 2020s?
Delta is down for now, but with the enormous retirement numbers, it doesn’t matter too much as someone hired today would rapidly gain several thousand people beneath them.
I can’t see how JetBlue ends up with 30-40% more block hours when, removing the E190 long term, it’s fleet only grows by 19%. However I’m not into the data as much as you are; as a pilot at B6 I can provide some insight on the other part though.
Even if JetBlue grows a good amount, say 20%, while that moves up a new hire’s seniority, it plays out somewhat differently at JetBlue than other major carriers. Again I need to stress that whether this matters depends on the life goals of the pilot, their family, home city, desire to commute, etc.
JetBlue’s flying is highly concentrated in the northeast, a place where some pilots desire to live, but most do not. The Florida bases are desirable, but also senior, very much so in the case of Orlando where it takes something like 6 years to be first officer on the A320 of 12 years just to be on reserve as an A320 captain (its less time on the 190, but much smaller opportunity to get it too). Looking at the relative youthfulness of the pilot group, that means the desirable bases will remain senior for the foreseeable future, especially since the vast majority of the growth rolled out continues to be in the Northeast.
JetBlue also has an interesting seniority structure in that because we only have A320 family, A220 and E190, the senior pilots all gather to the bigger Airbus. At a major airline, many of these very senior people would be pulled into the 767/787/777/A350/A330. So the most junior airplane at a legacy carrier is now the most senior at JetBlue. I personally have no interest in widebody international flying - I enjoy flying and sitting on autopilot for 13 hours doesn’t appeal to me - but I can still see how that skews the seniority by fleet here compared to others. Just some thoughts!
tphuang wrote:CobaltScar wrote:You'd be imagining wrong then because Spirit , while being slightly lower in pay, has superior work rules in their contract than the new JetBlue contract for FAs. Also, jetBlue FAs must work far harder in the aircraft doing all their service compared to Spirit who just sell things to a cabin that mostly does not buy anything. Neither does Spirit have to clean their own planes , unlike B6. Spirit also has shorter duty days. Actually the list is too long to type all out.
If only every ULCCs are NK or that NK FAs themselves think the same way. I'm sure ULCCs FAs also have a lot of tough components to their job that non-ULCC FAs don't have to deal with.
Also, I hope you don't mind me being skeptical of your views given that the vast majority of your posts have been critical and not of the constructive variety.
tphuang wrote:CRJ200flyer wrote:tphuang wrote:
If you look at April, B6 is up 7% in block hours vs 2019. DL is down 15% vs 2019 (probably even more among mainline). So while JetBlue is relatively young, it could also have 30 to 40% more mainline block hours by 2025 vs the Big 3 compared to 2019. If the last major bid added 19% to the active pilot ranks, who is to say they can't be close to double 2019's active pilot ranks by late 2020s?
Delta is down for now, but with the enormous retirement numbers, it doesn’t matter too much as someone hired today would rapidly gain several thousand people beneath them.
I can’t see how JetBlue ends up with 30-40% more block hours when, removing the E190 long term, it’s fleet only grows by 19%. However I’m not into the data as much as you are; as a pilot at B6 I can provide some insight on the other part though.
Even if JetBlue grows a good amount, say 20%, while that moves up a new hire’s seniority, it plays out somewhat differently at JetBlue than other major carriers. Again I need to stress that whether this matters depends on the life goals of the pilot, their family, home city, desire to commute, etc.
JetBlue’s flying is highly concentrated in the northeast, a place where some pilots desire to live, but most do not. The Florida bases are desirable, but also senior, very much so in the case of Orlando where it takes something like 6 years to be first officer on the A320 of 12 years just to be on reserve as an A320 captain (its less time on the 190, but much smaller opportunity to get it too). Looking at the relative youthfulness of the pilot group, that means the desirable bases will remain senior for the foreseeable future, especially since the vast majority of the growth rolled out continues to be in the Northeast.
JetBlue also has an interesting seniority structure in that because we only have A320 family, A220 and E190, the senior pilots all gather to the bigger Airbus. At a major airline, many of these very senior people would be pulled into the 767/787/777/A350/A330. So the most junior airplane at a legacy carrier is now the most senior at JetBlue. I personally have no interest in widebody international flying - I enjoy flying and sitting on autopilot for 13 hours doesn’t appeal to me - but I can still see how that skews the seniority by fleet here compared to others. Just some thoughts!
Thanks for getting back to me with your views. Always good to hear from a pilot. IMO, the base situation is unlikely to change. FLL will probably grow over the next few years, but MCO is unlikely to do so. I would also imagine it's the first E90 base to close. On the flip side, other airlines like AS also have challenges where a lot of their bases are in high coast coastal cities. Maybe JetBlue will just have to end up having to attract more people that want to stay in that part of the country. I'm not a pilot, but I love NY area and have no interest living in Florida.
I hope you don't mind me saying this, but it feels like there is a general sense of pessimism amongst pilots toward the direction of the airline. It's quite understandable given the operational issues and senior level departures. Imo, there is finally a path for JetBlue to a lot of growth in areas that were constrained pre-COVID and those are places they can grow profitably. COVID has actually made things a lot easier for JetBlue. In the medium term, that potentially could lead to a faster growth in pilot group than pilots expect. Not as fast NK or F9, but faster than everyone for else.
Anyhow, we will find out soon what the numbers look like.
jfklganyc wrote:171 flights today at JFK
Absolutely horrendous loads. Not unusual to see 20 or 30 people on flights
They are really being torn between beefing up JFK for the NEA court case and very little demand for anything outside Florida and some ski destinations.
Yes, it is January… But it’s an ugly January
jfklganyc wrote:171 flights today at JFK
Absolutely horrendous loads. Not unusual to see 20 or 30 people on flights
They are really being torn between beefing up JFK for the NEA court case and very little demand for anything outside Florida and some ski destinations.
Yes, it is January… But it’s an ugly January
CRJ200flyer wrote:jfklganyc wrote:171 flights today at JFK
Absolutely horrendous loads. Not unusual to see 20 or 30 people on flights
They are really being torn between beefing up JFK for the NEA court case and very little demand for anything outside Florida and some ski destinations.
Yes, it is January… But it’s an ugly January
I wonder how it actually compares to other airlines. My friend was on a Delta flight out of Orlando last night with 118 open seats - all nonrevs got first class, and the 757 was going back with only 5 passengers.
bval wrote:CRJ200flyer wrote:jfklganyc wrote:171 flights today at JFK
Absolutely horrendous loads. Not unusual to see 20 or 30 people on flights
They are really being torn between beefing up JFK for the NEA court case and very little demand for anything outside Florida and some ski destinations.
Yes, it is January… But it’s an ugly January
I wonder how it actually compares to other airlines. My friend was on a Delta flight out of Orlando last night with 118 open seats - all nonrevs got first class, and the 757 was going back with only 5 passengers.
I have cleared all my upgrades on AA in the past couple of weeks, as soon as my 72 hour upgrade window opened, and I was on a BNA-RDU segment yesterday that had 25 aboard. BNA generally has seen high load factors despite what's going on elsewhere. Definitely seems like an ugly January.
jfklganyc wrote:Sure its industry wide.
Just pointing out that they cant reduce flights at JFK.
35% LF yesterday
CRJ200flyer wrote:A small test of JetBlue’s resiliency is coming. JetBlue currently serves MCO-SLC almost daily (Thursday-Monday) and LAX-SLC daily. Spirit announced daily service on both these routes starting in May. It will be interesting to see if JetBlue retreats or stays in.
https://ir.spirit.com/news-releases/news-details/2022/Spirit-Airlines-Kicks-Off-2022-with-a-Salt-Lake-City-Debut/default.aspx
Wneast wrote:Anybody hearing anything about what the earnings call might look like tomorrow or should we just wait and see ?
Wneast wrote:Anybody hearing anything about what the earnings call might look like tomorrow or should we just wait and see ?
ytib wrote:Wneast wrote:Anybody hearing anything about what the earnings call might look like tomorrow or should we just wait and see ?
I can guarantee you that embargo on this information is tight and no one would want to even give a hint for the repercussions it could have on them. If you want to know what the street is expecting a quick Google search can find you that information.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JBLU/analysis/
Wneast wrote:Anybody hearing anything about what the earnings call might look like tomorrow or should we just wait and see ?
steady eddie wrote:Hi, looking for some advice from this side of the pond. I'm booked on B6 LGW-JFK in August and connecting on to a domestic, all booked as one through fare on the B6 website, the US domestic leg departs to destination 90 minutes later. Jetblue assure me this is enough time to clear Immigration and transfer, does anyone have any experience of arriving JFK internationally and switching to a domestic, they advise that bags will be transferred so that helps (if thats correct)
returning is even shorter 1.15 mins connection from my domestic onto the London Service. Same question again.
thanks for any insights, and sorry if this is the wrong thread
steady eddie wrote:Hi, looking for some advice from this side of the pond. I'm booked on B6 LGW-JFK in August and connecting on to a domestic, all booked as one through fare on the B6 website, the US domestic leg departs to destination 90 minutes later. Jetblue assure me this is enough time to clear Immigration and transfer, does anyone have any experience of arriving JFK internationally and switching to a domestic, they advise that bags will be transferred so that helps (if thats correct)
returning is even shorter 1.15 mins connection from my domestic onto the London Service. Same question again.
thanks for any insights, and sorry if this is the wrong thread
tphuang wrote:Wneast wrote:Anybody hearing anything about what the earnings call might look like tomorrow or should we just wait and see ?
Well, the earning came out and they don't look good. Looks like B6 got hit by end of Q4 omicron surge more than other airilines due to how it hit NYC first. Revenue down over 9% and they experienced EBITA loss. Q1 earning expected to be down 11 to 16%. Again, not good.
As we've talked about in the past, the full year is pretty aggressive at 11 to 15% capacity growth. That's even with Q1 being about flat due to omicron. That means they will probably be up 15 to 20% for second half of this year vs 2019. I'd imagine this level of growth is needed to get their CASM down.
So far, their deliveries are unchanged. Still, 3 A321LRs + 9 A220s in 2022. 2023 will be 5 A321LRs, 6 A321NEOs and 18 A220s. 4 A320s and 6 E90s will go away in 2023. It seems to me they have to announce some type of lease, because increasing block hours by 10 to 15% for second half of this year requires additional aircraft.
Who knows, will wait for earnings call for more details.
other thing of note is that 75% of their network will be within the NEA with all the additional NEA flying they are doing.steady eddie wrote:Hi, looking for some advice from this side of the pond. I'm booked on B6 LGW-JFK in August and connecting on to a domestic, all booked as one through fare on the B6 website, the US domestic leg departs to destination 90 minutes later. Jetblue assure me this is enough time to clear Immigration and transfer, does anyone have any experience of arriving JFK internationally and switching to a domestic, they advise that bags will be transferred so that helps (if thats correct)
returning is even shorter 1.15 mins connection from my domestic onto the London Service. Same question again.
thanks for any insights, and sorry if this is the wrong thread
I think you are probably fine for the return leg, since there is no CBP you have to go through on exit.
For the incoming one, I'm not sure. I have not never cleared CBP at T-5, so wouldn't know. Really depends on which other international flights are arriving at that time. If it's like T-7, then I think you won't have any problem. T-4 tends to have the longest lines IIRC.
steady eddie wrote:Hi, looking for some advice from this side of the pond. I'm booked on B6 LGW-JFK in August and connecting on to a domestic, all booked as one through fare on the B6 website, the US domestic leg departs to destination 90 minutes later. Jetblue assure me this is enough time to clear Immigration and transfer, does anyone have any experience of arriving JFK internationally and switching to a domestic, they advise that bags will be transferred so that helps (if thats correct)
returning is even shorter 1.15 mins connection from my domestic onto the London Service. Same question again.
thanks for any insights, and sorry if this is the wrong thread
Abeam79 wrote:Any chatter or questions from investors about Scott Laurence? My guess is it’s not as much of a topic of interest from investors being corporate musical chairs in that sector happens often.