https://www.caribjournal.com/2022/01/19 ... ding-more/

Small, but bumping MCO-NAS responding to F9.

Wneast wrote:

vtchaz78 wrote:

https://onemileatatime.com/news/airbus-terminates-qatar-airways-contract/

Seems some airframes may have just become available...

I hope B6 takes advantage of this

I hope that if they do, they can actually staff it.

vtchaz78 wrote:

Wneast wrote:

vtchaz78 wrote:

https://onemileatatime.com/news/airbus-terminates-qatar-airways-contract/

Seems some airframes may have just become available...

I hope B6 takes advantage of this

I hope that if they do, they can actually staff it.

The flight attendant hiring window is open again. In the past, it was usually open for no more than a week, this time it's open all the way until March 18th. Not sure if this means increased growth or desperate for staffing.

vtchaz78 wrote:

https://onemileatatime.com/news/airbus-terminates-qatar-airways-contract/

Seems some airframes may have just become available...

Just after Scott left... how interesting, haha

vtchaz78 wrote:

https://onemileatatime.com/news/airbus-terminates-qatar-airways-contract/

Seems some airframes may have just become available...

Go get it done!!!

StinkyPinky wrote:

vtchaz78 wrote:

Wneast wrote:

I hope B6 takes advantage of this

I hope that if they do, they can actually staff it.

The flight attendant hiring window is open again. In the past, it was usually open for no more than a week, this time it's open all the way until March 18th. Not sure if this means increased growth or desperate for staffing.

Or it could be both? They do need to hire enough staff to be ready for summer peak schedule. They may also be close to signing for some more deliveries soon. I guess we might hear more next week on earnings call.

It's obvious by now that labor market is really tight. Everyone is trying to hire. The legacies are hiring. The ULCCs are hiring and JetBlue is hiring. The legacies are clearly plundering both RJ and LCCs for crew member. Similarly, LCCs are plundering RJs for crew member. It seems to me that LCCs need to be aggressive in hiring to cover for any attrition to legacy carriers. At the end of the day, the RJs are the one with real staffing issues. That will constrain legacy growth. But JetBlue needs to be aggressive to get its staffing level. I'd imagine JetBlue should at least be more attractive to prospective employees than ULCCs. Long term, it's going to grow faster than all except the ULCCs and probably will have widebody aircraft at some point.

CEO Robin and other business leaders met with the new Manhattan District Attorney today after woman was pushed onto subway tracks in NYC.

Employees are worried about taking the train

I wonder if this plays into future decisions regarding support centers. I know they recently committed to keeping HQ in NYC

tphuang wrote:

StinkyPinky wrote:

vtchaz78 wrote:

I hope that if they do, they can actually staff it.

The flight attendant hiring window is open again. In the past, it was usually open for no more than a week, this time it's open all the way until March 18th. Not sure if this means increased growth or desperate for staffing.

Or it could be both? They do need to hire enough staff to be ready for summer peak schedule. They may also be close to signing for some more deliveries soon. I guess we might hear more next week on earnings call.

It's obvious by now that labor market is really tight. Everyone is trying to hire. The legacies are hiring. The ULCCs are hiring and JetBlue is hiring. The legacies are clearly plundering both RJ and LCCs for crew member. Similarly, LCCs are plundering RJs for crew member. It seems to me that LCCs need to be aggressive in hiring to cover for any attrition to legacy carriers. At the end of the day, the RJs are the one with real staffing issues. That will constrain legacy growth. But JetBlue needs to be aggressive to get its staffing level. I'd imagine JetBlue should at least be more attractive to prospective employees than ULCCs. Long term, it's going to grow faster than all except the ULCCs and probably will have widebody aircraft at some point.

JetBlue has been hiring a lot of pilots, but also has had significant training delays, particularly on the E190 (footprints ballooning from normal 6 weeks to over 3 months). They’ve been hiring and training new instructors to catch up, but it takes time. In my friend’s class, a few people left for United in the middle of training.

Regarding the path for a pilot at JetBlue, there are a lot of factors that depend on the pilots’ base preferences, aircraft goals, type of flying desired, etc. While JetBlue has plans to grow, for a pilot looking at their seniority, JetBlue would have to grow massively in order to beat the attrition currently ongoing at the majors. One of my friends hired a few months ago won’t reach 50% seniority in the company until 2040 because the pilot group is relatively young. The impact of that varies by base. Regarding widebody aircraft, that rumor has been going for 10+ years and no one really believes it anymore. The biggest thing is getting more 220s and 321s on property ASAP.

jfklganyc wrote:

CEO Robin and other business leaders met with the new Manhattan District Attorney today after woman was pushed onto subway tracks in NYC.

Employees are worried about taking the train

I wonder if this plays into future decisions regarding support centers. I know they recently committed to keeping HQ in NYC

This seems....extra. Are the people working in LIC not from NYC? It seems an overtop reaction that so many people are scared that the CEO had to meet with the DA? Idk

maverick4002 wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

CEO Robin and other business leaders met with the new Manhattan District Attorney today after woman was pushed onto subway tracks in NYC.

Employees are worried about taking the train

I wonder if this plays into future decisions regarding support centers. I know they recently committed to keeping HQ in NYC

This seems....extra. Are the people working in LIC not from NYC? It seems an overtop reaction that so many people are scared that the CEO had to meet with the DA? Idk

He wasnt alone.

A bunch of the city’s business leaders met with him today.

The email from corporate was surprisingly blunt. They are concerned about Public Safety in NYC

CRJ200flyer wrote:

tphuang wrote:

StinkyPinky wrote:

The flight attendant hiring window is open again. In the past, it was usually open for no more than a week, this time it's open all the way until March 18th. Not sure if this means increased growth or desperate for staffing.

Or it could be both? They do need to hire enough staff to be ready for summer peak schedule. They may also be close to signing for some more deliveries soon. I guess we might hear more next week on earnings call.

It's obvious by now that labor market is really tight. Everyone is trying to hire. The legacies are hiring. The ULCCs are hiring and JetBlue is hiring. The legacies are clearly plundering both RJ and LCCs for crew member. Similarly, LCCs are plundering RJs for crew member. It seems to me that LCCs need to be aggressive in hiring to cover for any attrition to legacy carriers. At the end of the day, the RJs are the one with real staffing issues. That will constrain legacy growth. But JetBlue needs to be aggressive to get its staffing level. I'd imagine JetBlue should at least be more attractive to prospective employees than ULCCs. Long term, it's going to grow faster than all except the ULCCs and probably will have widebody aircraft at some point.

JetBlue has been hiring a lot of pilots, but also has had significant training delays, particularly on the E190 (footprints ballooning from normal 6 weeks to over 3 months). They’ve been hiring and training new instructors to catch up, but it takes time. In my friend’s class, a few people left for United in the middle of training.

Regarding the path for a pilot at JetBlue, there are a lot of factors that depend on the pilots’ base preferences, aircraft goals, type of flying desired, etc. While JetBlue has plans to grow, for a pilot looking at their seniority, JetBlue would have to grow massively in order to beat the attrition currently ongoing at the majors. One of my friends hired a few months ago won’t reach 50% seniority in the company until 2040 because the pilot group is relatively young. The impact of that varies by base. Regarding widebody aircraft, that rumor has been going for 10+ years and no one really believes it anymore. The biggest thing is getting more 220s and 321s on property ASAP.

I agree with everything you’ve said here. The wide body rumor always annoyed the hell out of me. It was so obviously dangled as a distraction (look at the shiny thing, and ignore the cluster flock unfolding before your eyes). Mark Powers, when he was still the CFO, answered that tired old ‘when are we getting wide bodies?’ question with, “ never, as long as I’m writing the checks.” Considering our market valuation at the time, it was the only possible outcome. I actually think it is much more likely given our current situation, but it never was a real possibility in the past.

jfklganyc wrote:

maverick4002 wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

CEO Robin and other business leaders met with the new Manhattan District Attorney today after woman was pushed onto subway tracks in NYC.

Employees are worried about taking the train

I wonder if this plays into future decisions regarding support centers. I know they recently committed to keeping HQ in NYC

This seems....extra. Are the people working in LIC not from NYC? It seems an overtop reaction that so many people are scared that the CEO had to meet with the DA? Idk

He wasnt alone.

A bunch of the city’s business leaders met with him today.

The email from corporate was surprisingly blunt. They are concerned about Public Safety in NYC

Where are they going to go? Bismarck? MCO nor FLL are any safer.

A pilot supplemental system bid has been announced to open in February indicating a shuffle in staffing between fleets/bases. Interesting to see for what reason.

December17 wrote:

A pilot supplemental system bid has been announced to open in February indicating a shuffle in staffing between fleets/bases. Interesting to see for what reason.

What you think could be the reasoning

Wneast wrote:

December17 wrote:

A pilot supplemental system bid has been announced to open in February indicating a shuffle in staffing between fleets/bases. Interesting to see for what reason.

What you think could be the reasoning

Higher than planned attrition, higher than planned growth, shuffling some staff between bases (only thing I can think is more in LAX needed than originally planned, maybe true elsewhere as well), maybe they will announce more planes in the earnings call. That’s all the possibilities I can think of. Maybe the initial post-Scott network strategy is being implemented, or maybe the recovery is shaping up to be different than planned back in august on the last bid. Should find out the numbers in a month and will have a better idea then. But, as I stated back in august when the last bid came out, there are a ton of vacancies still, with enough to basically fill the training center to capacity as it is. Not sure how much more can be done there than is already on the books for the year. But, maybe with the new 220 and 320 sim and the rented 190 sim, they can get more through than I think they can.

JoseSalazar wrote:

Wneast wrote:

December17 wrote:

A pilot supplemental system bid has been announced to open in February indicating a shuffle in staffing between fleets/bases. Interesting to see for what reason.

What you think could be the reasoning

Higher than planned attrition, higher than planned growth, shuffling some staff between bases (only thing I can think is more in LAX needed than originally planned, maybe true elsewhere as well), maybe they will announce more planes in the earnings call. That’s all the possibilities I can think of. Maybe the initial post-Scott network strategy is being implemented, or maybe the recovery is shaping up to be different than planned back in august on the last bid. Should find out the numbers in a month and will have a better idea then. But, as I stated back in august when the last bid came out, there are a ton of vacancies still, with enough to basically fill the training center to capacity as it is. Not sure how much more can be done there than is already on the books for the year. But, maybe with the new 220 and 320 sim and the rented 190 sim, they can get more through than I think they can.

We could all hope they might announce new planes potentially in the earnings call

11C wrote:

CRJ200flyer wrote:

tphuang wrote:

Or it could be both? They do need to hire enough staff to be ready for summer peak schedule. They may also be close to signing for some more deliveries soon. I guess we might hear more next week on earnings call.

It's obvious by now that labor market is really tight. Everyone is trying to hire. The legacies are hiring. The ULCCs are hiring and JetBlue is hiring. The legacies are clearly plundering both RJ and LCCs for crew member. Similarly, LCCs are plundering RJs for crew member. It seems to me that LCCs need to be aggressive in hiring to cover for any attrition to legacy carriers. At the end of the day, the RJs are the one with real staffing issues. That will constrain legacy growth. But JetBlue needs to be aggressive to get its staffing level. I'd imagine JetBlue should at least be more attractive to prospective employees than ULCCs. Long term, it's going to grow faster than all except the ULCCs and probably will have widebody aircraft at some point.

JetBlue has been hiring a lot of pilots, but also has had significant training delays, particularly on the E190 (footprints ballooning from normal 6 weeks to over 3 months). They’ve been hiring and training new instructors to catch up, but it takes time. In my friend’s class, a few people left for United in the middle of training.

Regarding the path for a pilot at JetBlue, there are a lot of factors that depend on the pilots’ base preferences, aircraft goals, type of flying desired, etc. While JetBlue has plans to grow, for a pilot looking at their seniority, JetBlue would have to grow massively in order to beat the attrition currently ongoing at the majors. One of my friends hired a few months ago won’t reach 50% seniority in the company until 2040 because the pilot group is relatively young. The impact of that varies by base. Regarding widebody aircraft, that rumor has been going for 10+ years and no one really believes it anymore. The biggest thing is getting more 220s and 321s on property ASAP.

I agree with everything you’ve said here. The wide body rumor always annoyed the hell out of me. It was so obviously dangled as a distraction (look at the shiny thing, and ignore the cluster flock unfolding before your eyes). Mark Powers, when he was still the CFO, answered that tired old ‘when are we getting wide bodies?’ question with, “ never, as long as I’m writing the checks.” Considering our market valuation at the time, it was the only possible outcome. I actually think it is much more likely given our current situation, but it never was a real possibility in the past.

In the past widebody was rumored. But lately now that they entered transatlantic, they likely will need them to grow ASM’s going forward because of how hard slots are to get in the EU. Also they sent out a letter saying they are considering widebody after they give an a evaluation with A321LR’s in the next few years. I think it’s a matter of time.
Right now they need to expand the current fleet and maybe we’ll see what comes up in the next few weeks

On the supplementary bid front, I wonder if the long open hiring window for FAs is related to this. There likely will be some base size changes as a result of leadership change. Longer hiring window for FA would seem to be point to high attrition rate + more anticipated growth. So, I think supplementary bid is probably a combination of everything. Larger LAX base and more west coast flying would be a welcome sight. Based on all the noise about leasing aircraft, I wouldn't be surprised if they did sign a lease for more A321s (or maybe got some of QR's A321s =)). Maybe Scott's departure have forced a shake up in JetBlue management to carry out some kind of growth to retaliate against DL/UA. And of course, attrition rate is probably through the roof right now with all the aggressive legacy hiring. Thursday's call could be interesting.

On the widebody front, I do think they are likely to put in a widebody order for delivery in late 2020s if TATL flying goes well. We are at the point where B6's march toward legacy/network type of airline is quite apparent. They clearly aren't as against operating multiple fleet types as other LCCs. If the rumour about taking just mint A321NEO is true, then they are also moving to a more premium airline. The natural progression of that is having a widebody fleet. The bigger question to me is what happens to E90s.

While JetBlue has plans to grow, for a pilot looking at their seniority, JetBlue would have to grow massively in order to beat the attrition currently ongoing at the majors. One of my friends hired a few months ago won’t reach 50% seniority in the company until 2040 because the pilot group is relatively young.

If you look at April, B6 is up 7% in block hours vs 2019. DL is down 15% vs 2019 (probably even more among mainline). So while JetBlue is relatively young, it could also have 30 to 40% more mainline block hours by 2025 vs the Big 3 compared to 2019. If the last major bid added 19% to the active pilot ranks, who is to say they can't be close to double 2019's active pilot ranks by late 2020s?

tphuang wrote:

While JetBlue has plans to grow, for a pilot looking at their seniority, JetBlue would have to grow massively in order to beat the attrition currently ongoing at the majors. One of my friends hired a few months ago won’t reach 50% seniority in the company until 2040 because the pilot group is relatively young.

If you look at April, B6 is up 7% in block hours vs 2019. DL is down 15% vs 2019 (probably even more among mainline). So while JetBlue is relatively young, it could also have 30 to 40% more mainline block hours by 2025 vs the Big 3 compared to 2019. If the last major bid added 19% to the active pilot ranks, who is to say they can't be close to double 2019's active pilot ranks by late 2020s?

Delta is down for now, but with the enormous retirement numbers, it doesn’t matter too much as someone hired today would rapidly gain several thousand people beneath them.

I can’t see how JetBlue ends up with 30-40% more block hours when, removing the E190 long term, it’s fleet only grows by 19%. However I’m not into the data as much as you are; as a pilot at B6 I can provide some insight on the other part though.

Even if JetBlue grows a good amount, say 20%, while that moves up a new hire’s seniority, it plays out somewhat differently at JetBlue than other major carriers. Again I need to stress that whether this matters depends on the life goals of the pilot, their family, home city, desire to commute, etc.

JetBlue’s flying is highly concentrated in the northeast, a place where some pilots desire to live, but most do not. The Florida bases are desirable, but also senior, very much so in the case of Orlando where it takes something like 6 years to be first officer on the A320 of 12 years just to be on reserve as an A320 captain (its less time on the 190, but much smaller opportunity to get it too). Looking at the relative youthfulness of the pilot group, that means the desirable bases will remain senior for the foreseeable future, especially since the vast majority of the growth rolled out continues to be in the Northeast.

JetBlue also has an interesting seniority structure in that because we only have A320 family, A220 and E190, the senior pilots all gather to the bigger Airbus. At a major airline, many of these very senior people would be pulled into the 767/787/777/A350/A330. So the most junior airplane at a legacy carrier is now the most senior at JetBlue. I personally have no interest in widebody international flying - I enjoy flying and sitting on autopilot for 13 hours doesn’t appeal to me - but I can still see how that skews the seniority by fleet here compared to others. Just some thoughts!

tphuang wrote:

I'd imagine JetBlue should at least be more attractive to prospective employees than ULCCs.

You'd be imagining wrong then because Spirit , while being slightly lower in pay, has superior work rules in their contract than the new JetBlue contract for FAs. Also, jetBlue FAs must work far harder in the aircraft doing all their service compared to Spirit who just sell things to a cabin that mostly does not buy anything. Neither does Spirit have to clean their own planes , unlike B6. Spirit also has shorter duty days. Actually the list is too long to type all out.

StinkyPinky wrote:

vtchaz78 wrote:

Wneast wrote:

I hope B6 takes advantage of this

I hope that if they do, they can actually staff it.

The flight attendant hiring window is open again. In the past, it was usually open for no more than a week, this time it's open all the way until March 18th. Not sure if this means increased growth or desperate for staffing.

Both. Also the new contract is live, which puts more limits on what B6 can do with a FA so more will be needed to account for the drop in productivity or flexibility of utilization.

CobaltScar wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I'd imagine JetBlue should at least be more attractive to prospective employees than ULCCs.

You'd be imagining wrong then because Spirit , while being slightly lower in pay, has superior work rules in their contract than the new JetBlue contract for FAs. Also, jetBlue FAs must work far harder in the aircraft doing all their service compared to Spirit who just sell things to a cabin that mostly does not buy anything. Neither does Spirit have to clean their own planes , unlike B6. Spirit also has shorter duty days. Actually the list is too long to type all out.

Honest question but why do you still work at JetBlue if every one of your posts is critical at best?

BlueBaller wrote:

CobaltScar wrote:

tphuang wrote:

I'd imagine JetBlue should at least be more attractive to prospective employees than ULCCs.

You'd be imagining wrong then because Spirit , while being slightly lower in pay, has superior work rules in their contract than the new JetBlue contract for FAs. Also, jetBlue FAs must work far harder in the aircraft doing all their service compared to Spirit who just sell things to a cabin that mostly does not buy anything. Neither does Spirit have to clean their own planes , unlike B6. Spirit also has shorter duty days. Actually the list is too long to type all out.

Honest question but why do you still work at JetBlue if every one of your posts is critical at best?

Because I have a knack for making any system work for me. Does not mean I can't criticize the system and try to make it better. (which I have indeed done at jetBlue, helping bring in the Union and helping to bring in this current contract)

CobaltScar wrote:

You'd be imagining wrong then because Spirit , while being slightly lower in pay, has superior work rules in their contract than the new JetBlue contract for FAs. Also, jetBlue FAs must work far harder in the aircraft doing all their service compared to Spirit who just sell things to a cabin that mostly does not buy anything. Neither does Spirit have to clean their own planes , unlike B6. Spirit also has shorter duty days. Actually the list is too long to type all out.

If only every ULCCs are NK or that NK FAs themselves think the same way. I'm sure ULCCs FAs also have a lot of tough components to their job that non-ULCC FAs don't have to deal with.

Also, I hope you don't mind me being skeptical of your views given that the vast majority of your posts have been critical and not of the constructive variety.

tphuang wrote:

CobaltScar wrote:

You'd be imagining wrong then because Spirit , while being slightly lower in pay, has superior work rules in their contract than the new JetBlue contract for FAs. Also, jetBlue FAs must work far harder in the aircraft doing all their service compared to Spirit who just sell things to a cabin that mostly does not buy anything. Neither does Spirit have to clean their own planes , unlike B6. Spirit also has shorter duty days. Actually the list is too long to type all out.

If only every ULCCs are NK or that NK FAs themselves think the same way. I'm sure ULCCs FAs also have a lot of tough components to their job that non-ULCC FAs don't have to deal with.

Also, I hope you don't mind me being skeptical of your views given that the vast majority of your posts have been critical and not of the constructive variety.

I post facts, decide for yourself if cleaning aircraft between legs is good or bad thing. Or if a 18 hour domestic duty day is more healthy than a 16 hour one.

CRJ200flyer wrote:

tphuang wrote:

While JetBlue has plans to grow, for a pilot looking at their seniority, JetBlue would have to grow massively in order to beat the attrition currently ongoing at the majors. One of my friends hired a few months ago won’t reach 50% seniority in the company until 2040 because the pilot group is relatively young.

If you look at April, B6 is up 7% in block hours vs 2019. DL is down 15% vs 2019 (probably even more among mainline). So while JetBlue is relatively young, it could also have 30 to 40% more mainline block hours by 2025 vs the Big 3 compared to 2019. If the last major bid added 19% to the active pilot ranks, who is to say they can't be close to double 2019's active pilot ranks by late 2020s?

Delta is down for now, but with the enormous retirement numbers, it doesn’t matter too much as someone hired today would rapidly gain several thousand people beneath them.

I can’t see how JetBlue ends up with 30-40% more block hours when, removing the E190 long term, it’s fleet only grows by 19%. However I’m not into the data as much as you are; as a pilot at B6 I can provide some insight on the other part though.

Even if JetBlue grows a good amount, say 20%, while that moves up a new hire’s seniority, it plays out somewhat differently at JetBlue than other major carriers. Again I need to stress that whether this matters depends on the life goals of the pilot, their family, home city, desire to commute, etc.

JetBlue’s flying is highly concentrated in the northeast, a place where some pilots desire to live, but most do not. The Florida bases are desirable, but also senior, very much so in the case of Orlando where it takes something like 6 years to be first officer on the A320 of 12 years just to be on reserve as an A320 captain (its less time on the 190, but much smaller opportunity to get it too). Looking at the relative youthfulness of the pilot group, that means the desirable bases will remain senior for the foreseeable future, especially since the vast majority of the growth rolled out continues to be in the Northeast.

JetBlue also has an interesting seniority structure in that because we only have A320 family, A220 and E190, the senior pilots all gather to the bigger Airbus. At a major airline, many of these very senior people would be pulled into the 767/787/777/A350/A330. So the most junior airplane at a legacy carrier is now the most senior at JetBlue. I personally have no interest in widebody international flying - I enjoy flying and sitting on autopilot for 13 hours doesn’t appeal to me - but I can still see how that skews the seniority by fleet here compared to others. Just some thoughts!

Thanks for getting back to me with your views. Always good to hear from a pilot. IMO, the base situation is unlikely to change. FLL will probably grow over the next few years, but MCO is unlikely to do so. I would also imagine it's the first E90 base to close. On the flip side, other airlines like AS also have challenges where a lot of their bases are in high coast coastal cities. Maybe JetBlue will just have to end up having to attract more people that want to stay in that part of the country. I'm not a pilot, but I love NY area and have no interest living in Florida.

I hope you don't mind me saying this, but it feels like there is a general sense of pessimism amongst pilots toward the direction of the airline. It's quite understandable given the operational issues and senior level departures. Imo, there is finally a path for JetBlue to a lot of growth in areas that were constrained pre-COVID and those are places they can grow profitably. COVID has actually made things a lot easier for JetBlue. In the medium term, that potentially could lead to a faster growth in pilot group than pilots expect. Not as fast NK or F9, but faster than everyone for else.

Anyhow, we will find out soon what the numbers look like.

tphuang wrote:

CobaltScar wrote:

You'd be imagining wrong then because Spirit , while being slightly lower in pay, has superior work rules in their contract than the new JetBlue contract for FAs. Also, jetBlue FAs must work far harder in the aircraft doing all their service compared to Spirit who just sell things to a cabin that mostly does not buy anything. Neither does Spirit have to clean their own planes , unlike B6. Spirit also has shorter duty days. Actually the list is too long to type all out.

If only every ULCCs are NK or that NK FAs themselves think the same way. I'm sure ULCCs FAs also have a lot of tough components to their job that non-ULCC FAs don't have to deal with.

Also, I hope you don't mind me being skeptical of your views given that the vast majority of your posts have been critical and not of the constructive variety.

Cobalt is correct. Spirit, for example, has greater health care coverage plan and lower costs than us. The truth is, with this labor crunch, why would you go to an airline that starts at $20/hr when you can go to a legacy airline or Southwest/Alaska for a higher start rate and better healthcare coverage, for example?

tphuang wrote:

CRJ200flyer wrote:

tphuang wrote:

If you look at April, B6 is up 7% in block hours vs 2019. DL is down 15% vs 2019 (probably even more among mainline). So while JetBlue is relatively young, it could also have 30 to 40% more mainline block hours by 2025 vs the Big 3 compared to 2019. If the last major bid added 19% to the active pilot ranks, who is to say they can't be close to double 2019's active pilot ranks by late 2020s?

Delta is down for now, but with the enormous retirement numbers, it doesn’t matter too much as someone hired today would rapidly gain several thousand people beneath them.

I can’t see how JetBlue ends up with 30-40% more block hours when, removing the E190 long term, it’s fleet only grows by 19%. However I’m not into the data as much as you are; as a pilot at B6 I can provide some insight on the other part though.

Even if JetBlue grows a good amount, say 20%, while that moves up a new hire’s seniority, it plays out somewhat differently at JetBlue than other major carriers. Again I need to stress that whether this matters depends on the life goals of the pilot, their family, home city, desire to commute, etc.

JetBlue’s flying is highly concentrated in the northeast, a place where some pilots desire to live, but most do not. The Florida bases are desirable, but also senior, very much so in the case of Orlando where it takes something like 6 years to be first officer on the A320 of 12 years just to be on reserve as an A320 captain (its less time on the 190, but much smaller opportunity to get it too). Looking at the relative youthfulness of the pilot group, that means the desirable bases will remain senior for the foreseeable future, especially since the vast majority of the growth rolled out continues to be in the Northeast.

JetBlue also has an interesting seniority structure in that because we only have A320 family, A220 and E190, the senior pilots all gather to the bigger Airbus. At a major airline, many of these very senior people would be pulled into the 767/787/777/A350/A330. So the most junior airplane at a legacy carrier is now the most senior at JetBlue. I personally have no interest in widebody international flying - I enjoy flying and sitting on autopilot for 13 hours doesn’t appeal to me - but I can still see how that skews the seniority by fleet here compared to others. Just some thoughts!

Thanks for getting back to me with your views. Always good to hear from a pilot. IMO, the base situation is unlikely to change. FLL will probably grow over the next few years, but MCO is unlikely to do so. I would also imagine it's the first E90 base to close. On the flip side, other airlines like AS also have challenges where a lot of their bases are in high coast coastal cities. Maybe JetBlue will just have to end up having to attract more people that want to stay in that part of the country. I'm not a pilot, but I love NY area and have no interest living in Florida.

I hope you don't mind me saying this, but it feels like there is a general sense of pessimism amongst pilots toward the direction of the airline. It's quite understandable given the operational issues and senior level departures. Imo, there is finally a path for JetBlue to a lot of growth in areas that were constrained pre-COVID and those are places they can grow profitably. COVID has actually made things a lot easier for JetBlue. In the medium term, that potentially could lead to a faster growth in pilot group than pilots expect. Not as fast NK or F9, but faster than everyone for else.

Anyhow, we will find out soon what the numbers look like.

I always appreciate your contributions. They are very thoughtful.

As another pilot in the group, I can confirm there is a lot of pessimism. The reality of the situation is it’s not as bad as the pessimists say, nor as good as the “blue juicers” say.

It’s hard to ignore our new hire pilots not being converted to regular pay when they pass their initial check ride. That is in print as clear as day and the company has failed to meet this requirement for several months now. How? Incompetence? Purposeful neglect? How are we to further the idea of the core values when the company itself fails to meet such standards? Where’s the integrity?

On the optimistic side, the business has done well and mint has exciting prospects. When the operation goes well, it’s an easy job. When it’s bad, it’s bad. I have no interest in wide-bodies personally, just hope to hold a line as captain on the 320 before too long. I think that’ll happen for me personally and in general for new pilots. Wide-bodies will help with fleet-seniority diversity and I believe they are coming. But B6 needs to get back to the basics of launching a flight, then repeating it 1000+ times a day.

171 flights today at JFK

Absolutely horrendous loads. Not unusual to see 20 or 30 people on flights

They are really being torn between beefing up JFK for the NEA court case and very little demand for anything outside Florida and some ski destinations.

Yes, it is January… But it’s an ugly January

jfklganyc wrote:

171 flights today at JFK

Absolutely horrendous loads. Not unusual to see 20 or 30 people on flights

They are really being torn between beefing up JFK for the NEA court case and very little demand for anything outside Florida and some ski destinations.

Yes, it is January… But it’s an ugly January

Maybe they can reboot their IT/booking portal and actually make it easier for customers to book flights? I've spent the last two hours trying to book an "empty" SLC flight for next Monday. I've received every error message in the book. Mobile app says no flights available. Are you kidding me?

Can Google just take over the booking/management tech for this airline? It's the worst of any airline out there.

jfklganyc wrote:

171 flights today at JFK

Absolutely horrendous loads. Not unusual to see 20 or 30 people on flights

They are really being torn between beefing up JFK for the NEA court case and very little demand for anything outside Florida and some ski destinations.

Yes, it is January… But it’s an ugly January

I wonder how it actually compares to other airlines. My friend was on a Delta flight out of Orlando last night with 118 open seats - all nonrevs got first class, and the 757 was going back with only 5 passengers.

CRJ200flyer wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

171 flights today at JFK

Absolutely horrendous loads. Not unusual to see 20 or 30 people on flights

They are really being torn between beefing up JFK for the NEA court case and very little demand for anything outside Florida and some ski destinations.

Yes, it is January… But it’s an ugly January

I wonder how it actually compares to other airlines. My friend was on a Delta flight out of Orlando last night with 118 open seats - all nonrevs got first class, and the 757 was going back with only 5 passengers.

I have cleared all my upgrades on AA in the past couple of weeks, as soon as my 72 hour upgrade window opened, and I was on a BNA-RDU segment yesterday that had 25 aboard. BNA generally has seen high load factors despite what's going on elsewhere. Definitely seems like an ugly January.

Its industry wide. These loads are the reults of mostly what they told us a few weeks ago with close in forward booking, @2-3 weeks, when Omicron was rapidly rising around the country and specifically the northeast. now its rapidly declining, and in the next few weeks we'll see things start to return to normal.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3790597-a ... e-channels
This isn't a shock that todays flights were planned a few weeks ago and the media was on their usual hyped up covid alarm-mode and people cancelled/rebooked the flights we're seeing today.

Sure its industry wide.

Just pointing out that they cant reduce flights at JFK.

35% LF yesterday

A small test of JetBlue’s resiliency is coming. JetBlue currently serves MCO-SLC almost daily (Thursday-Monday) and LAX-SLC daily. Spirit announced daily service on both these routes starting in May. It will be interesting to see if JetBlue retreats or stays in.

https://ir.spirit.com/news-releases/news-details/2022/Spirit-Airlines-Kicks-Off-2022-with-a-Salt-Lake-City-Debut/default.aspx

bval wrote:

CRJ200flyer wrote:

jfklganyc wrote:

171 flights today at JFK

Absolutely horrendous loads. Not unusual to see 20 or 30 people on flights

They are really being torn between beefing up JFK for the NEA court case and very little demand for anything outside Florida and some ski destinations.

Yes, it is January… But it’s an ugly January

I wonder how it actually compares to other airlines. My friend was on a Delta flight out of Orlando last night with 118 open seats - all nonrevs got first class, and the 757 was going back with only 5 passengers.

I have cleared all my upgrades on AA in the past couple of weeks, as soon as my 72 hour upgrade window opened, and I was on a BNA-RDU segment yesterday that had 25 aboard. BNA generally has seen high load factors despite what's going on elsewhere. Definitely seems like an ugly January.

I flew BNA-DCA a week ago on WN and the plane was about 30% full. Literally everyone who wanted got a full row to themselves. It was kind of nice as a pax but they can’t be making much profit on those flights.

jfklganyc wrote:

Sure its industry wide.

Just pointing out that they cant reduce flights at JFK.

35% LF yesterday

How is EWR and LGA?

CRJ200flyer wrote:

A small test of JetBlue’s resiliency is coming. JetBlue currently serves MCO-SLC almost daily (Thursday-Monday) and LAX-SLC daily. Spirit announced daily service on both these routes starting in May. It will be interesting to see if JetBlue retreats or stays in.

https://ir.spirit.com/news-releases/news-details/2022/Spirit-Airlines-Kicks-Off-2022-with-a-Salt-Lake-City-Debut/default.aspx

They arent going anywhere on those routes

Anybody hearing anything about what the earnings call might look like tomorrow or should we just wait and see ?

Wneast wrote:

Anybody hearing anything about what the earnings call might look like tomorrow or should we just wait and see ?

I'm eager to hear how they respond to questions about Scott Laurence defecting to Delta.

Wneast wrote:

Anybody hearing anything about what the earnings call might look like tomorrow or should we just wait and see ?

I can guarantee you that embargo on this information is tight and no one would want to even give a hint for the repercussions it could have on them. If you want to know what the street is expecting a quick Google search can find you that information.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JBLU/analysis/

ytib wrote:

Wneast wrote:

Anybody hearing anything about what the earnings call might look like tomorrow or should we just wait and see ?

I can guarantee you that embargo on this information is tight and no one would want to even give a hint for the repercussions it could have on them. If you want to know what the street is expecting a quick Google search can find you that information.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/JBLU/analysis/

I guess we will find out in the morning

Hi, looking for some advice from this side of the pond. I'm booked on B6 LGW-JFK in August and connecting on to a domestic, all booked as one through fare on the B6 website, the US domestic leg departs to destination 90 minutes later. Jetblue assure me this is enough time to clear Immigration and transfer, does anyone have any experience of arriving JFK internationally and switching to a domestic, they advise that bags will be transferred so that helps (if thats correct)

returning is even shorter 1.15 mins connection from my domestic onto the London Service. Same question again.

thanks for any insights, and sorry if this is the wrong thread

Wneast wrote:

Anybody hearing anything about what the earnings call might look like tomorrow or should we just wait and see ?

Well, the earning came out and they don't look good. Looks like B6 got hit by end of Q4 omicron surge more than other airilines due to how it hit NYC first. Revenue down over 9% and they experienced EBITA loss. Q1 earning expected to be down 11 to 16%. Again, not good.

As we've talked about in the past, the full year is pretty aggressive at 11 to 15% capacity growth. That's even with Q1 being about flat due to omicron. That means they will probably be up 15 to 20% for second half of this year vs 2019. I'd imagine this level of growth is needed to get their CASM down.

So far, their deliveries are unchanged. Still, 3 A321LRs + 9 A220s in 2022. 2023 will be 5 A321LRs, 6 A321NEOs and 18 A220s. 4 A320s and 6 E90s will go away in 2023. It seems to me they have to announce some type of lease, because increasing block hours by 10 to 15% for second half of this year requires additional aircraft.

Who knows, will wait for earnings call for more details.

other thing of note is that 75% of their network will be within the NEA with all the additional NEA flying they are doing.

steady eddie wrote:

Hi, looking for some advice from this side of the pond. I'm booked on B6 LGW-JFK in August and connecting on to a domestic, all booked as one through fare on the B6 website, the US domestic leg departs to destination 90 minutes later. Jetblue assure me this is enough time to clear Immigration and transfer, does anyone have any experience of arriving JFK internationally and switching to a domestic, they advise that bags will be transferred so that helps (if thats correct)

returning is even shorter 1.15 mins connection from my domestic onto the London Service. Same question again.

thanks for any insights, and sorry if this is the wrong thread

I think you are probably fine for the return leg, since there is no CBP you have to go through on exit.

For the incoming one, I'm not sure. I have not never cleared CBP at T-5, so wouldn't know. Really depends on which other international flights are arriving at that time. If it's like T-7, then I think you won't have any problem. T-4 tends to have the longest lines IIRC.

steady eddie wrote:

Hi, looking for some advice from this side of the pond. I'm booked on B6 LGW-JFK in August and connecting on to a domestic, all booked as one through fare on the B6 website, the US domestic leg departs to destination 90 minutes later. Jetblue assure me this is enough time to clear Immigration and transfer, does anyone have any experience of arriving JFK internationally and switching to a domestic, they advise that bags will be transferred so that helps (if thats correct)

returning is even shorter 1.15 mins connection from my domestic onto the London Service. Same question again.

thanks for any insights, and sorry if this is the wrong thread

The leg to the US should be fine. The return leg I’d be a little concerned about. Going off of our most recent peak periods during the holidays and last summer we only operate at about 60% on time clip and domestic takes the brunt of that. That connection returning to London would definitely concern me.

tphuang wrote:

Wneast wrote:

Anybody hearing anything about what the earnings call might look like tomorrow or should we just wait and see ?

Well, the earning came out and they don't look good. Looks like B6 got hit by end of Q4 omicron surge more than other airilines due to how it hit NYC first. Revenue down over 9% and they experienced EBITA loss. Q1 earning expected to be down 11 to 16%. Again, not good.

As we've talked about in the past, the full year is pretty aggressive at 11 to 15% capacity growth. That's even with Q1 being about flat due to omicron. That means they will probably be up 15 to 20% for second half of this year vs 2019. I'd imagine this level of growth is needed to get their CASM down.

So far, their deliveries are unchanged. Still, 3 A321LRs + 9 A220s in 2022. 2023 will be 5 A321LRs, 6 A321NEOs and 18 A220s. 4 A320s and 6 E90s will go away in 2023. It seems to me they have to announce some type of lease, because increasing block hours by 10 to 15% for second half of this year requires additional aircraft.

Who knows, will wait for earnings call for more details.

other thing of note is that 75% of their network will be within the NEA with all the additional NEA flying they are doing.

steady eddie wrote:

Hi, looking for some advice from this side of the pond. I'm booked on B6 LGW-JFK in August and connecting on to a domestic, all booked as one through fare on the B6 website, the US domestic leg departs to destination 90 minutes later. Jetblue assure me this is enough time to clear Immigration and transfer, does anyone have any experience of arriving JFK internationally and switching to a domestic, they advise that bags will be transferred so that helps (if thats correct)

returning is even shorter 1.15 mins connection from my domestic onto the London Service. Same question again.

thanks for any insights, and sorry if this is the wrong thread

I think you are probably fine for the return leg, since there is no CBP you have to go through on exit.

For the incoming one, I'm not sure. I have not never cleared CBP at T-5, so wouldn't know. Really depends on which other international flights are arriving at that time. If it's like T-7, then I think you won't have any problem. T-4 tends to have the longest lines IIRC.

If we ordered 10-15 more planes I would be thrilled. Then all we would have to worry about is staffing and infrastructure. More realistically, however, I think the plan will probably be to run an operation similar to last summer with a crazy high utilization rate at the expense of our customers and crewmembers again.

steady eddie wrote:

Hi, looking for some advice from this side of the pond. I'm booked on B6 LGW-JFK in August and connecting on to a domestic, all booked as one through fare on the B6 website, the US domestic leg departs to destination 90 minutes later. Jetblue assure me this is enough time to clear Immigration and transfer, does anyone have any experience of arriving JFK internationally and switching to a domestic, they advise that bags will be transferred so that helps (if thats correct)

returning is even shorter 1.15 mins connection from my domestic onto the London Service. Same question again.

thanks for any insights, and sorry if this is the wrong thread

On the leg into the US, you will need to claim your luggage after clearing customs and then re-check it at the designated desk. You will also need to clear security. If you are connecting to another JetBlue flight, you will already be in Terminal 5. I feel 90 minutes assuming you’re on time should be sufficient. But I also cannot say for sure since I am not familiar with processing time and lines at that time of day in T5i.

On the return that time will be fine. No need to clear security or bags to re-check regardless if you are flying JetBlue or not. If you are flying American on the domestic leg, they have a bus that will drive you from their terminal to JetBlue.


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Nothing exciting from earnings call.

Believe they would’ve had more revenue in Q1 of 2022 than 2019 if not for Omicron. Now expect to see profitability in Q2.
Believe demand will accelerate as Omicron cases are declining in NYC area. Net revenue up 30% right now vs first week of January.
Much less debt by end of 2021.
A lot of talk about JetBlue Travel Product - think it’s on the way to reach $100 million EBIT run-rate this year.
Mint Cabin did really well. A lot of praises for mint for both domestic and TATL.
Says they do well with EMS cabin to leisure markets.
Over 75% of JetBlue’s 2022 growth deployed in NEA (not total capacity)
Talked a lot about NEA growth and mosaic program growth with new tier.
Got $100 million codeshare revenue from NEA so far. Expect this to ramp up significantly.
Saw corporate booking recover to 50% of 2019 level in Q4 before Omicron wave. Started quarter at 1/3 of 2019 level. Expect to see corporate booking to recover in Q2
NYC-London route demand jumped 5 fold last quarter when the restrictions first went away. A lot of question about London performance.
JetBlue is hiring well over 5000 people in 2022. (Mostly done in first half)
Says over 300 flights a day across JFK/EWR/LGA and back to pre-pandemic level at BOS

Any chatter or questions from investors about Scott Laurence? My guess is it’s not as much of a topic of interest from investors being corporate musical chairs in that sector happens often.

Abeam79 wrote:

Any chatter or questions from investors about Scott Laurence? My guess is it’s not as much of a topic of interest from investors being corporate musical chairs in that sector happens often.

I read the transcript, and I saw nothing. No mention at all.