Jetblue Network Thread - 2022

qf789 · Fri Dec 31, 2021 3:37 pm

Welcome to the Jetblue Network Thread - 2022. Please continue to add your comments below

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tphuang · Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:01 pm

Thoughts about a New Year.

First, the things that I think are going to be announced this year unless something seismic happens.
1) Announcement of new TATL routes - My expectations are BOS-LHR/LGW get announced in the first half + announcement of CDG and MAN before end of the year for service in 2023. I would also expect some kind of announcement for permanent LHR slots
2) Starting service to Hawaii. It seems like this will get announced next year although the starting date could be anywhere from end of 2022 to summer of 2023 depending on when they take the appropriate aircraft delivery. My guess is both HNL and OGG will get announced next year.
3) Moving to the new terminal at MCO. I think they will make a big announcement here along with a couple of route additions including FLL and SFO as part of their promise to operate pre-COVID level of schedule by next summer. I think this will get announced in Q1.
4) Some type of announcement about moving into new Terminal A at EWR. It will be interesting to see how many gates they eventually have (10??) and how long it takes to get all the gates.

Here are the things to watch out for
1) Do they commit to a lease of more aircraft? If so, how many? Unless something changes, I think domestic/Caribbean demand will be quite healthy by spring time. Lower demand from other countries means the lease market should still have deals. I think more than 50% chance they strike something here
2) They have already evolved their ff program to be multi-tier. What else is in store as the AA partnership deepens? Will they finally have their own lounges? Will they add more aircraft with FC cabins? Will the NEA push them closer to OneWorld membership? Will they partner up with AS? What other partners can they add now that they are on track to becoming the largest carrier at JFK? Can they finally fix up all their IT issues?
3) How will NEA evolve from 2022 into 2023? They've already added a lot of new markets. How many more slots are getting transferred from AA to B6? They have also announced goals of well over 200 flights at JFK and BOS. How quickly can they get BOS to that mark? All of that growth requires new markets as well as additional frequency to existing markets. Will they replace AA in markets like IND, CMH, CVG and STL? Will they add some other new markets? I think IAD, PTY, MEX, SNA, SAL and CLO are all obvious markets for them to add next.
4) Do they finally succeed in securing their future at LAX? The current situation is not ideal. They don't have enough gates to operate a 70 to 75 flight station that they announced back in 2020. Could they secure that in T-5? Do they have to move? One thing to keep an eye out for is the new T-0. If B6 has to ante up more money to secure a lease there or pay for part of the construction cost, they should do that. They probably will be battling WN for gate access. I think B6 has a good chance of securing gate access. Until then, we will have to see how many gates they can first secure at T-5.
5) Do they commit to something at SFO? I'd love to see this. With AS planning a move to Concourse B, it'd be interesting to see if B6 stays there or moves to where AS is currently at. Either way, SFO has a lot of gate availability. UA is still well below pre-COVID capacity there. Overall, SFO schedule in Jan 2022 shows 30% fewer seats than Jan 2019. B6 should at minimum add a couple more routes + beef up existing routes over the next year or so.
6) How aggressive will they be at FLL/MIA? They are already going to be back to pre-COVID size by next summer at FLL. Are they able to secure more gates to cement their leadership at FLL? I think most of their growth at FLL will have to wait for 2023. Some possible adds in south Florida are MIA-SFO/SJU/SDQ and FLL-TPA/MKE/PTY/CLO/DEN

Wneast · Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:31 pm

tphuang wrote:
Thoughts about a New Year.

First, the things that I think are going to be announced this year unless something seismic happens.
1) Announcement of new TATL routes - My expectations are BOS-LHR/LGW get announced in the first half + announcement of CDG and MAN before end of the year for service in 2023. I would also expect some kind of announcement for permanent LHR slots
2) Starting service to Hawaii. It seems like this will get announced next year although the starting date could be anywhere from end of 2022 to summer of 2023 depending on when they take the appropriate aircraft delivery. My guess is both HNL and OGG will get announced next year.
3) Moving to the new terminal at MCO. I think they will make a big announcement here along with a couple of route additions including FLL and SFO as part of their promise to operate pre-COVID level of schedule by next summer. I think this will get announced in Q1.
4) Some type of announcement about moving into new Terminal A at EWR. It will be interesting to see how many gates they eventually have (10??) and how long it takes to get all the gates.

Here are the things to watch out for
1) Do they commit to a lease of more aircraft? If so, how many? Unless something changes, I think domestic/Caribbean demand will be quite healthy by spring time. Lower demand from other countries means the lease market should still have deals. I think more than 50% chance they strike something here
2) They have already evolved their ff program to be multi-tier. What else is in store as the AA partnership deepens? Will they finally have their own lounges? Will they add more aircraft with FC cabins? Will the NEA push them closer to OneWorld membership? Will they partner up with AS? What other partners can they add now that they are on track to becoming the largest carrier at JFK? Can they finally fix up all their IT issues?
3) How will NEA evolve from 2022 into 2023? They've already added a lot of new markets. How many more slots are getting transferred from AA to B6? They have also announced goals of well over 200 flights at JFK and BOS. How quickly can they get BOS to that mark? All of that growth requires new markets as well as additional frequency to existing markets. Will they replace AA in markets like IND, CMH, CVG and STL? Will they add some other new markets? I think IAD, PTY, MEX, SNA, SAL and CLO are all obvious markets for them to add next.
4) Do they finally succeed in securing their future at LAX? The current situation is not ideal. They don't have enough gates to operate a 70 to 75 flight station that they announced back in 2020. Could they secure that in T-5? Do they have to move? One thing to keep an eye out for is the new T-0. If B6 has to ante up more money to secure a lease there or pay for part of the construction cost, they should do that. They probably will be battling WN for gate access. I think B6 has a good chance of securing gate access. Until then, we will have to see how many gates they can first secure at T-5.
5) Do they commit to something at SFO? I'd love to see this. With AS planning a move to Concourse B, it'd be interesting to see if B6 stays there or moves to where AS is currently at. Either way, SFO has a lot of gate availability. UA is still well below pre-COVID capacity there. Overall, SFO schedule in Jan 2022 shows 30% fewer seats than Jan 2019. B6 should at minimum add a couple more routes + beef up existing routes over the next year or so.
6) How aggressive will they be at FLL/MIA? They are already going to be back to pre-COVID size by next summer at FLL. Are they able to secure more gates to cement their leadership at FLL? I think most of their growth at FLL will have to wait for 2023. Some possible adds in south Florida are MIA-SFO/SJU/SDQ and FLL-TPA/MKE/PTY/CLO/DEN

I highly doubt B6 will move and operations to T-0 which will be connected to WN gates and they are already funding part of that project so there won’t be enough gates for B6

jplatts · Fri Dec 31, 2021 8:56 pm

tphuang wrote:
Will they partner up with AS?

AA already has 1-stop connecting service to ALB, BUF, BTV, BDL, PWM, PVD, ROC, SYR, and HPN from SEA through its CLT, ORD, and/or PHL hubs.

A B6-AS codeshare partnership would allow B6 to put its code on AS routes out of SEA to destinations in WA/OR/AK/BC that aren't served by B6 such as ANC, EUG, FAI, JNU, YLW, KTN, MFR, PSC, RDM, SIT, GEG, YYJ, EAT, and YKM.

A B6-AS partnership would also allow B6 and AS to retain FF's who would otherwise switch over to the AAdvantage FF program.

A B6-AS partnership would also allow B6 to better compete against DL and UA in the Northeast as connecting to places in WA/OR/AK/BC from the Northeast through SEA requires less backtracking than connecting to places in WA/OR/AK/BC from the Northeast through DFW or PHX on AA would.

jfklganyc · Fri Dec 31, 2021 9:45 pm

Breaking:

B6 pulling down Feb schedule

Just delayed pilot and FA bidding by one week

Slash and burn are back baby!

tphuang · Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:41 pm

jfklganyc wrote:
Breaking:

B6 pulling down Feb schedule

Just delayed pilot and FA bidding by one week

Slash and burn are back baby!

It's hard to get people to fly when schools are shut down and people have to lineup for hours around the block waiting for tests. Looking at kayak, NYC searches for week of Dec 26 was down 40% (major drop from even 2 weeks ago). If there is any light at the end of the tunnel, it would be that NY/NJ/MA got hit first, so this will inevitably burn out here first too (one would hope). I'm personally waiting until second half of January to book for February. If this is anything like Delta wave, bookings should be back to Thanksgiving/Early December level by February.

Another thing to watch out for is corporate traffic. Apparently, it was down about 42% around Thankgsiving time and now it's down 62%.

I think we are all set for a great second quarter (at least domestic and Caribbean leisure market). March probably will be alright too. I just hope the JetBlue don't panic and cancel flights into second quarter. They must have seen this enough times to know that leisure demand can go from 30 to 100 pretty quickly.

tphuang · Sat Jan 01, 2022 12:05 pm

Wneast wrote:
I highly doubt B6 will move and operations to T-0 which will be connected to WN gates and they are already funding part of that project so there won’t be enough gates for B6

Maybe, but I don't think it's a sealed deal. We've heard UA talk more about T-9 than WN talk about concourse 0. It's hard for me to think that WN will get 11 additional gates at one swoop (IIRC, 9 net gates with 0 + 2 gates at current T-1 are supposed to be CUTE). Aside from LAWA, I think the challenge WN is facing from the current ULCC explosion could keep them from such expansion.

Back in April of 2020, I thought WN was going to be the biggest winner coming out of COVID. The opposite has happened. They are now seeing bigger problems everywhere. The main reason for that is the ULCC explosion. Secondarily, WN performance to HI has been abysmal. Third, their efforts to enter primary airports like IAH, ORD and MIA have resulted in very low yield.

If we look back at 2016, WN was arguably B6's biggest competitor. They were growing in BOS. They still served EWR. They were building up FLL as their gateway to Latam. They were dominant at MCO. They also started serving LGB. Everywhere B6 looked, WN was a major competitor. But now in 2021, WN has retreated in every major B6 focus city. This breakdown of daily departures for LCCs show just how much WN has shrunk in many coastal airports viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468375 for next summer.

FLL experiment looks to be over (down to 50 flights a day). They've stagnated and cut back at MCO and TPA. Their northeast presence has continually scaled down. They lost market share in not only BOS and NYC, but also BDL, PVD, ISP and MHT. They've even lost a lot of market share in Cali. WN once dominated leisure markets from non-legacy hubs, because they were the only airline for non-stop service. As NK and other ULCCs expanded into these non-legacy hubs, they inevitably added Florida, LAS and CUN first. As this process has accelerated during COVID time, WN yields have collapsed. FLL and MCO are prime examples. As WN tries to protect it's margin and strength in the middle of the country, it has cut back in more competitive Northeast, Florida and California markets. The ULCCs are only going to continue to expand rapidly over the next few years. WN can't stop ULCC growth, because a lot of their focus cities are not constrained. The main B6 focus cities are all at constrained airports that are seeing escalating costs. A WN management that seeks to please wall street cannot achieve above average industry margins while building everywhere. Their focus will likely be in hubs like Denver, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Baltimore and Nashville. That means their presence in coastal markets will continue to stagnate.

All of this creates opportunities for B6. WN cuts at FLL could allow a couple of more carriers to be shifted from T-3/4 to T-1 and allow B6 to get more gate access there in order to battle NK. WN stagnation cuts at MCO gives B6 some breathing room while ULCCs continue to grow there. Cuts and stagnation at SFO have allowed there to be many underutilized gates in the new Boarding Area B. Leaving EWR has obviously opened up opportunities there for B6. Which brings us back to LAX.

From 2016 to Q2 of this year, WN's domestic point of sale at LAX dropped from 12.45% to 7.89%. Its overall domestic point of sale in the LA Basin dropped from 21.81% to 16.87%. The short haul intra-cali business markets are likely to remain weak for a long time. That's how WN was able to operate close to 130 flights a day pre-COVID. Their efforts to diversity from that hasn't gone well. They are down to BWI and BNA among transcon and near transcon markets. WN's efforts to add HI flights from LAX have also been going poorly. I don't think those will stick around very low. As we know with the recent F9 exit, costs at LAX have really been going up. Higher CPE is more detrimental to shorter flights with lower fares. Given these trends, I think LAX (only 90 departures a day next summer) will likely stagnate for WN. While it logically made sense for WN to take over a good chunk of the new concourse, I think they will be less inclined to take on projects that will add to their costs. At the same time, JetBlue is desperate to secure its future at LAX. Higher terminal cost is not as bad for an O&D focused airline that mostly flies longer distance flights on larger aircraft. If B6 is willing to invest $3.9 billion on a new T-6 at JFK, it may be willing to foot a large bill for securing most of the gates in a new terminal.

We will see how this turn out. With LAX CPEs continue to go up, I just don't see WN needing more gates than what they had pre-COVID. In the 4 to 5 years it takes to open Concourse 0, I think it's more likely that WN continues to lose point of sale at LAX. Even if they believe they can overcome that, I don't see LAWA giving them preferential access to all of the gates at T-1 and Concourse 0.

Wneast · Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:20 pm

tphuang wrote:
Wneast wrote:
I highly doubt B6 will move and operations to T-0 which will be connected to WN gates and they are already funding part of that project so there won’t be enough gates for B6

Maybe, but I don't think it's a sealed deal. We've heard UA talk more about T-9 than WN talk about concourse 0. It's hard for me to think that WN will get 11 additional gates at one swoop (IIRC, 9 net gates with 0 + 2 gates at current T-1 are supposed to be CUTE). Aside from LAWA, I think the challenge WN is facing from the current ULCC explosion could keep them from such expansion.

Back in April of 2020, I thought WN was going to be the biggest winner coming out of COVID. The opposite has happened. They are now seeing bigger problems everywhere. The main reason for that is the ULCC explosion. Secondarily, WN performance to HI has been abysmal. Third, their efforts to enter primary airports like IAH, ORD and MIA have resulted in very low yield.

If we look back at 2016, WN was arguably B6's biggest competitor. They were growing in BOS. They still served EWR. They were building up FLL as their gateway to Latam. They were dominant at MCO. They also started serving LGB. Everywhere B6 looked, WN was a major competitor. But now in 2021, WN has retreated in every major B6 focus city. This breakdown of daily departures for LCCs show just how much WN has shrunk in many coastal airports viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468375 for next summer.

FLL experiment looks to be over (down to 50 flights a day). They've stagnated and cut back at MCO and TPA. Their northeast presence has continually scaled down. They lost market share in not only BOS and NYC, but also BDL, PVD, ISP and MHT. They've even lost a lot of market share in Cali. WN once dominated leisure markets from non-legacy hubs, because they were the only airline for non-stop service. As NK and other ULCCs expanded into these non-legacy hubs, they inevitably added Florida, LAS and CUN first. As this process has accelerated during COVID time, WN yields have collapsed. FLL and MCO are prime examples. As WN tries to protect it's margin and strength in the middle of the country, it has cut back in more competitive Northeast, Florida and California markets. The ULCCs are only going to continue to expand rapidly over the next few years. WN can't stop ULCC growth, because a lot of their focus cities are not constrained. The main B6 focus cities are all at constrained airports that are seeing escalating costs. A WN management that seeks to please wall street cannot achieve above average industry margins while building everywhere. Their focus will likely be in hubs like Denver, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Baltimore and Nashville. That means their presence in coastal markets will continue to stagnate.

All of this creates opportunities for B6. WN cuts at FLL could allow a couple of more carriers to be shifted from T-3/4 to T-1 and allow B6 to get more gate access there in order to battle NK. WN stagnation cuts at MCO gives B6 some breathing room while ULCCs continue to grow there. Cuts and stagnation at SFO have allowed there to be many underutilized gates in the new Boarding Area B. Leaving EWR has obviously opened up opportunities there for B6. Which brings us back to LAX.

From 2016 to Q2 of this year, WN's domestic point of sale at LAX dropped from 12.45% to 7.89%. Its overall domestic point of sale in the LA Basin dropped from 21.81% to 16.87%. The short haul intra-cali business markets are likely to remain weak for a long time. That's how WN was able to operate close to 130 flights a day pre-COVID. Their efforts to diversity from that hasn't gone well. They are down to BWI and BNA among transcon and near transcon markets. WN's efforts to add HI flights from LAX have also been going poorly. I don't think those will stick around very low. As we know with the recent F9 exit, costs at LAX have really been going up. Higher CPE is more detrimental to shorter flights with lower fares. Given these trends, I think LAX (only 90 departures a day next summer) will likely stagnate for WN. While it logically made sense for WN to take over a good chunk of the new concourse, I think they will be less inclined to take on projects that will add to their costs. At the same time, JetBlue is desperate to secure its future at LAX. Higher terminal cost is not as bad for an O&D focused airline that mostly flies longer distance flights on larger aircraft. If B6 is willing to invest $3.9 billion on a new T-6 at JFK, it may be willing to foot a large bill for securing most of the gates in a new terminal.

We will see how this turn out. With LAX CPEs continue to go up, I just don't see WN needing more gates than what they had pre-COVID. In the 4 to 5 years it takes to open Concourse 0, I think it's more likely that WN continues to lose point of sale at LAX. Even if they believe they can overcome that, I don't see LAWA giving them preferential access to all of the gates at T-1 and Concourse 0.

WN has always had a problem with gates at LAX the problem is they weren’t moving and would be to hard because they have 13 gates now and they weren’t going to have spilt operations so really in Covid they couldn’t gain any gates

BoeingG · Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:33 pm

tphuang wrote:
jfklganyc wrote:
Breaking:

B6 pulling down Feb schedule

Just delayed pilot and FA bidding by one week

Slash and burn are back baby!

It's hard to get people to fly when schools are shut down and people have to lineup for hours around the block waiting for tests. Looking at kayak, NYC searches for week of Dec 26 was down 40% (major drop from even 2 weeks ago). If there is any light at the end of the tunnel, it would be that NY/NJ/MA got hit first, so this will inevitably burn out here first too (one would hope). I'm personally waiting until second half of January to book for February. If this is anything like Delta wave, bookings should be back to Thanksgiving/Early December level by February.

Another thing to watch out for is corporate traffic. Apparently, it was down about 42% around Thankgsiving time and now it's down 62%.

I think we are all set for a great second quarter (at least domestic and Caribbean leisure market). March probably will be alright too. I just hope the JetBlue don't panic and cancel flights into second quarter. They must have seen this enough times to know that leisure demand can go from 30 to 100 pretty quickly.

Who is visiting NY in January/February? The "Holly" days are over! :lol:

tphuang · Sat Jan 01, 2022 9:14 pm

On the subject of LAX gate space (since it's one of their two biggest question marks in terms of airport access along with LHR slots), let's take a look at some possibilities.
First, # of departures for all the airlines on Dec 31st (including cancellations)
AA - 106 (97 operated + 9 canceled) 49 from T-4, In T5, 17 from 51B, 53A, 53B and 28 for Eagles Nest
DL - 108 (88 operated + 20 canceled)
UA - 110 (95 operated + 15 canceled)
WN - 57 (56 operated + 1 canceled)
AS - 71 ( 61 operated + 10 canceled).- All from T6, I saw on AS thread that they were going to use T-5, but that looks to not be needed with all the cancellations.
B6 - 33 (27 operated + 6 canceled) Using gates 50, 54A, 54B, 55A, 58, 59
NK - 33 (31 operated + 2 canceled) Using gates 54B, 56A-D, 58
HA/G4/SY - 15 (12 operated + 2 canceled) all from TBIT west?

Looks to me T5 at the moment has AA with 51A, 51B, 53A, 53B. NK has 56A-D. B6 has 50, 54A, 55A and 59. 54B and 58 are CUTE. 57 may be out of commission at the moment getting split to 2 gates. The same may happen to 58 later. IIRC, AA will have preferential access to 10 gates at T5 and all of T4 + whatever access in TBIT and Eagles Nest (or MSC south). So, it's likely that at least one of NK & B6 if not both need to move out.

What is the best scenario here for B6? Maybe NK gets pushed out to TBIT or T-1 or whatever space gets vacated when T9 gets built. B6 stays at T-5 and ends up with 7 gates. Maybe it works something out with AA to sublease a couple of gates from them, since AA will have plenty of slack in its gates. It's in AA's best interests to have B6 in T-5, since its ff can continue to utilize Admiral Club when they fly on AA codeshare of B6 flights. This would allow B6 to expand to 70 flights a day and keep fighting for more gate access from LAWA.

As I outlined earlier, another good option is to move to T-1 and get access to a good chunk of gates at Concourse 0 (maybe 7 to 9). Since MSC also uses the T-1 check-in area, maybe they could get a couple of gates there also. This would allow them to grow to over 70 flights a day, but some flights would have to be out of MSC. At least they get to keep one check-in area here. In this scenario, NK will probably stay in T-5. Not great for NEA.

Another possibility is for B6 to eventually have a split operation between T-5/6 to get all the gates it needs. At some point, AC will probably move into the new T-9 or somewhere with UA. B6 would probably have enough gates for its operation from what's left over at T-5/6. Not ideal to have a split operation, but at least they are next to each other and connected.

The next one is a split operation between T5 and MSC. This would be a disaster since now you have 2 check-in areas. Connections would be really hard between the two terminals. It would be a terrible customer experience.

The final one is to have their entire operation at MSC. I don't know how this would even work out since there are many airlines there already. Unless the ULCCs all leave LAX due to high costs, I'm not sure MSC itself would have enough gates for all of B6 operation. If LAWA starts moving more international carriers there, it would be a huge nightmare. I think F9's experience at MSC must have been really terrible to leave there so abruptly.

After the lawsuit with HA and the departure of F9, I think LAWA will be a lot more careful about how it forces smaller airlines out to accommodate AA. JetBlue has scheduled 46 departures a day for this summer. NK has 35 departures scheduled. If 57 comes back online (and AA doesn't pick up more gates), both B6 and NK should be able to operate everything from T-5. But this would likely be the last summer both B6 and NK can fit their entire schedule in there. If I were B6, I'd talk to my partners at AA and convince them that LAWA will not give them all of T4/5. AA isn't going to operate enough domestic mainline flights to meet usage requirements for all the gates in T4/5 or even the ones it has preferential access to. It'd be better for AA's network and customer experience to have B6 as the other T-5 carrier rather than NK.

nine4nine · Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:03 pm

B6 should have pounced on making a deal for a large majority of the new MSC gates at LAX. T5 is worn out and the single line alleyways are a nightmare getting in and out of. I’ve spent hours of my life waiting for a gate or waiting to push from a gate because of the alleys In the south complex.

portola2727 · Sat Jan 01, 2022 11:59 pm

I mean, the MSC South concourse is looking to be finished in August 2024. Who knows what the state of Aviation is then.

StinkyPinky · Sun Jan 02, 2022 12:28 am

MSC won't happen, JB isn't interested in bussing passengers (or checked baggage) to and from T5 or T1.5 like Allegiant has to do and there isn't any check-in space available in TBIT. The one off flights that departs from TBITW gate 219 are enough of a headache for passengers and crew.

avi8 · Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:25 am

Could we see a potential expansion in Latin America? SAP is starting soon. Maybe GUA-MCO/FLL?

Flflyer83 · Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:57 pm

tphuang wrote:
On the subject of LAX gate space (since it's one of their two biggest question marks in terms of airport access along with LHR slots), let's take a look at some possibilities.
First, # of departures for all the airlines on Dec 31st (including cancellations)
AA - 106 (97 operated + 9 canceled) 49 from T-4, In T5, 17 from 51B, 53A, 53B and 28 for Eagles Nest
DL - 108 (88 operated + 20 canceled)
UA - 110 (95 operated + 15 canceled)
WN - 57 (56 operated + 1 canceled)
AS - 71 ( 61 operated + 10 canceled).- All from T6, I saw on AS thread that they were going to use T-5, but that looks to not be needed with all the cancellations.
B6 - 33 (27 operated + 6 canceled) Using gates 50, 54A, 54B, 55A, 58, 59
NK - 33 (31 operated + 2 canceled) Using gates 54B, 56A-D, 58
HA/G4/SY - 15 (12 operated + 2 canceled) all from TBIT west?

Looks to me T5 at the moment has AA with 51A, 51B, 53A, 53B. NK has 56A-D. B6 has 50, 54A, 55A and 59. 54B and 58 are CUTE. 57 may be out of commission at the moment getting split to 2 gates. The same may happen to 58 later. IIRC, AA will have preferential access to 10 gates at T5 and all of T4 + whatever access in TBIT and Eagles Nest (or MSC south). So, it's likely that at least one of NK & B6 if not both need to move out.

What is the best scenario here for B6? Maybe NK gets pushed out to TBIT or T-1 or whatever space gets vacated when T9 gets built. B6 stays at T-5 and ends up with 7 gates. Maybe it works something out with AA to sublease a couple of gates from them, since AA will have plenty of slack in its gates. It's in AA's best interests to have B6 in T-5, since its ff can continue to utilize Admiral Club when they fly on AA codeshare of B6 flights. This would allow B6 to expand to 70 flights a day and keep fighting for more gate access from LAWA.

As I outlined earlier, another good option is to move to T-1 and get access to a good chunk of gates at Concourse 0 (maybe 7 to 9). Since MSC also uses the T-1 check-in area, maybe they could get a couple of gates there also. This would allow them to grow to over 70 flights a day, but some flights would have to be out of MSC. At least they get to keep one check-in area here. In this scenario, NK will probably stay in T-5. Not great for NEA.

Another possibility is for B6 to eventually have a split operation between T-5/6 to get all the gates it needs. At some point, AC will probably move into the new T-9 or somewhere with UA. B6 would probably have enough gates for its operation from what's left over at T-5/6. Not ideal to have a split operation, but at least they are next to each other and connected.

The next one is a split operation between T5 and MSC. This would be a disaster since now you have 2 check-in areas. Connections would be really hard between the two terminals. It would be a terrible customer experience.

The final one is to have their entire operation at MSC. I don't know how this would even work out since there are many airlines there already. Unless the ULCCs all leave LAX due to high costs, I'm not sure MSC itself would have enough gates for all of B6 operation. If LAWA starts moving more international carriers there, it would be a huge nightmare. I think F9's experience at MSC must have been really terrible to leave there so abruptly.

After the lawsuit with HA and the departure of F9, I think LAWA will be a lot more careful about how it forces smaller airlines out to accommodate AA. JetBlue has scheduled 46 departures a day for this summer. NK has 35 departures scheduled. If 57 comes back online (and AA doesn't pick up more gates), both B6 and NK should be able to operate everything from T-5. But this would likely be the last summer both B6 and NK can fit their entire schedule in there. If I were B6, I'd talk to my partners at AA and convince them that LAWA will not give them all of T4/5. AA isn't going to operate enough domestic mainline flights to meet usage requirements for all the gates in T4/5 or even the ones it has preferential access to. It'd be better for AA's network and customer experience to have B6 as the other T-5 carrier rather than NK.

B6 is not going in to T0 or T1 at LAX.

B6 should focus on its current and on-going operational disaster in 2022. It’s going to get more tough with additional workgroups organizing after the treatment of employees the last 18 months.

tphuang · Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:24 pm

The other topic that's worth watching this year is staffing. Assuming that demand comes back by Q2, the biggest limiting factor to capacity is staffing. As we've seen this past couple of weeks, all the airlines are currently staffed enough to just operate the peak schedule with very little buffer. Some airlines are staffed more fully than others, but all are in trouble when something goes wrong. For example, non-wholly owned RJ seems to be most understaffed based on what we've seen recently (CommutAir, Mesa, Skywest and Air Wisconsin have the highest cancellation rates today). And clearly, JetBlue got really slammed by the high case count here in NY/NJ area.

Looking at block hours, B6 goes from slightly below 2019 block hours in Jan/Feb to 7.5% above 2019 block hours by April. By summer, they will probably be 10% above 2019 block hours. They have a more aggressive schedule than all non-ULCCs. Of course, they could still trim their schedule, but it seems like they have already made certain summer schedule commitments as part of their pre-Christmas announcement and adjusted their spring/summer schedules to reflect that. So if they are having trouble operating the holiday schedule, things are going to be harder when they need operate a schedule that's 10% larger than this. Even if we don't get another massive wave like omicron, they will probably have trouble to hire/keep staffing level needed to operate this.

Now, I did see B6 with greater head count growth than almost every other airline (including NK) in second half of this year. They will need to keep that up in order to operate their summer schedule. There are some real questions in this tight labor market. What happens when the 3rd party contractors, which ULCCs depend on, start costing more money? Will that reduce the cost advantage ULCCs have vs JetBlue? Will that reduce the cost advantage that JetBlue has over legacy airlines?

As I mentioned earlier, it appears that non-wholly owned regional airlines have the most staffing issues. There are ports that hiring is current outstripped by those who are departing. The rapid growth of ULCCs have really led to plundering of RJ staffs. RJ staffing issues have forced UA to cut many small markets. DL has cut some markets too. So if RJs are already under staffed for the current operation, how will they be able to operate larger schedule in the summer time. That will really affect how much legacy airlines can operate this year. That may also affect how much AA depend on B6 in the Northeast.

Long term, it seems to me that the regional model will get more or more uncompetitive. 50 seaters are already getting close to unworkable. How long before 70/76 seaters get to that point to? Among mainline fleets, B6 actually has a lineup (100, 140, 162, 200) that can right size most domestic markets. That will be the case for probably the next 8 to 10 years.

tphuang · Sun Jan 02, 2022 6:40 pm

Flflyer83 wrote:
B6 is not going in to T0 or T1 at LAX.

B6 should focus on its current and on-going operational disaster in 2022. It’s going to get more tough with additional workgroups organizing after the treatment of employees the last 18 months.

The two issues are not related. B6 will need # number of gates regardless of what kind of staffing issues they may have right now. The only question is where that will be. Getting 10 gates at T-5 would be the best scenario, but that would working some things out with AA. Getting a mixture of gates at T-5/6 would be okay too, but having 2 check-ins are undesirable. I don't see why T-1/Concourse 0 can't be another possibility. LAWA needs to find a place to put B6 and/or NK in order to live up to its agreement with AA.

Could we see a potential expansion in Latin America? SAP is starting soon. Maybe GUA-MCO/FLL?

Possibly, but maybe not this year? I see another JFK market (PTY or SAL) as more likely for this year. Although long term, I'd think they add both FLL-GUA/SAP. Maybe also LAX-GUA.

Flflyer83 · Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:23 pm

How many crew members does B6 staff their transatlantic flights with? Pilots and flight attendants?

JoseSalazar · Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:24 pm

Flflyer83 wrote:
How many crew members does B6 staff their transatlantic flights with? Pilots and flight attendants?

1 CA and 2 FOs, 5 FAs

DELTA777 · Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:27 pm

JetBlue is experiencing IT issues today. Flight Status, Gate Information Displays, the JetBlue app and some proprietary systems related to flight following and electronic manifests have been down for a few hours.

tphuang · Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:39 pm

It's a true embarrassment how often JetBlue has some type of IT problems. I understand that they are short staffed these days and probably have a lot of pressure to do the work needed to implement a major partnership for the first time. But they are going to really lose customers if they don't fix this up.

flyguy1 · Tue Jan 04, 2022 5:57 pm

tphuang wrote:
Flflyer83 wrote:
B6 is not going in to T0 or T1 at LAX.

B6 should focus on its current and on-going operational disaster in 2022. It’s going to get more tough with additional workgroups organizing after the treatment of employees the last 18 months.

The two issues are not related. B6 will need # number of gates regardless of what kind of staffing issues they may have right now. The only question is where that will be. Getting 10 gates at T-5 would be the best scenario, but that would working some things out with AA. Getting a mixture of gates at T-5/6 would be okay too, but having 2 check-ins are undesirable. I don't see why T-1/Concourse 0 can't be another possibility. LAWA needs to find a place to put B6 and/or NK in order to live up to its agreement with AA.

Could we see a potential expansion in Latin America? SAP is starting soon. Maybe GUA-MCO/FLL?

Possibly, but maybe not this year? I see another JFK market (PTY or SAL) as more likely for this year. Although long term, I'd think they add both FLL-GUA/SAP. Maybe also LAX-GUA.

Has a start date for SAP been announced yet?

Blerg · Tue Jan 04, 2022 6:19 pm

Are B6 A321neo planes based in certain markets or do they move them around depending on their scheduling needs?

B6BOSfan · Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:53 pm

tphuang wrote:
It's a true embarrassment how often JetBlue has some type of IT problems. I understand that they are short staffed these days and probably have a lot of pressure to do the work needed to implement a major partnership for the first time. But they are going to really lose customers if they don't fix this up.

This is spot on. The fact you can't do so many operations on their website you should be able to is comical. If you book with points, you basically can't cancel or change flights on the website -- and are stuck calling them -- or tweeting them. When they start issuing winter weather waivers, the ability to switch to another flight was also broken the previous time i had tried using it.

It extends beyond the consumer-facing portal too.

I had a wonderful gate agent who had to call JetBlue's True Blue office to get myself and another guy who missed a SEA-BOS flight rebooked, because we both originally used points to book. She was on the phone for almost 30 minutes! That's real productivity impacts on workers that shouldn't be needed!

The crewmembers and the actual hard product are what make the airline.

tphuang · Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:42 am

I haven't seen a starting date for SAP. That's weird.

B6BOSfan wrote:
tphuang wrote:
It's a true embarrassment how often JetBlue has some type of IT problems. I understand that they are short staffed these days and probably have a lot of pressure to do the work needed to implement a major partnership for the first time. But they are going to really lose customers if they don't fix this up.

This is spot on. The fact you can't do so many operations on their website you should be able to is comical. If you book with points, you basically can't cancel or change flights on the website -- and are stuck calling them -- or tweeting them. When they start issuing winter weather waivers, the ability to switch to another flight was also broken the previous time i had tried using it.

It extends beyond the consumer-facing portal too.

I had a wonderful gate agent who had to call JetBlue's True Blue office to get myself and another guy who missed a SEA-BOS flight rebooked, because we both originally used points to book. She was on the phone for almost 30 minutes! That's real productivity impacts on workers that shouldn't be needed!

The crewmembers and the actual hard product are what make the airline.

By the way, everyone says Apple business chat is the best/fastest way to get a problem addresses. https://www.jetblue.com/help/technical-support

I truly had a lot of good experience with JetBlue crew members. I rarely fly JetBlue these days due to a variety of reasons, but I don't recall their website being this problematic before. My hope is that all the issues we've seen in the past year are related to the changes they are making in new revenue management system, going to multi-tier ff program and integrating with AA on the back end. And that whatever investment in terms of adding to IT team will fix all these issues over the next year. As you say, it's so terrible for their productivity to lose worker hours because their website/apps can't handle simple requests.

Flflyer83 · Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:44 am

JoseSalazar wrote:
Flflyer83 wrote:
How many crew members does B6 staff their transatlantic flights with? Pilots and flight attendants?

1 CA and 2 FOs, 5 FAs

How many seats do they block out for crew rest?

JoseSalazar · Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:46 am

Flflyer83 wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Flflyer83 wrote:
How many crew members does B6 staff their transatlantic flights with? Pilots and flight attendants?

1 CA and 2 FOs, 5 FAs

How many seats do they block out for crew rest?

One mint seat for pilots and I think 1 row of economy seats for FAs.

atcsundevil · Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:19 am

In keeping with other airlines on the forum, JetBlue will now have both a Network and Fleet Thread. Please delineate discussion accordingly. Link below.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468841

✈️ atcsundevil

bval · Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:43 am

tphuang wrote:
It's a true embarrassment how often JetBlue has some type of IT problems. I understand that they are short staffed these days and probably have a lot of pressure to do the work needed to implement a major partnership for the first time. But they are going to really lose customers if they don't fix this up.

I'm an AA Plat Pro flying B6 more often these days thanks to moving to a small town with a 3x 9K connection to BOS. So far I've had to contact AA customer service to get every single B6 segment I've taken credited to my account, despite putting my FF# In at booking. Also had issues with seat assignments, difficulty checking a free bag that has required a supervisor override at the counter, etc. It's bad.

AA isn't industry leading in IT or anything but they are light years ahead of B6. I hope as the NEA deepens that AA will help B6 mature there.

phllax · Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:03 am

Blerg wrote:
Are B6 A321neo planes based in certain markets or do they move them around depending on their scheduling needs?

FLL-UIO, JFK-BUR, GYE, GEO and of course LHR are all dedicated 321neo routes. They will pop up in any market operated with an all-Core 321.

Blerg · Wed Jan 05, 2022 7:34 am

phllax wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Are B6 A321neo planes based in certain markets or do they move them around depending on their scheduling needs?

FLL-UIO, JFK-BUR, GYE, GEO and of course LHR are all dedicated 321neo routes. They will pop up in any market operated with an all-Core 321.

Thank you. Is there any special reason why BUR is the only domestic destination to get the neo?

11C · Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:44 am

Blerg wrote:
phllax wrote:
Blerg wrote:
Are B6 A321neo planes based in certain markets or do they move them around depending on their scheduling needs?

FLL-UIO, JFK-BUR, GYE, GEO and of course LHR are all dedicated 321neo routes. They will pop up in any market operated with an all-Core 321.

Thank you. Is there any special reason why BUR is the only domestic destination to get the neo?

Short runways, mountains. It’s a special airport by FAA definition.

tphuang · Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:07 pm

http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetb ... wsid=79005
Unfortunately, it looks like Scott Laurence has gone to a competitor. Now, Dave Clark is now head of route planning.

Blerg · Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:35 pm

11C wrote:
Blerg wrote:
phllax wrote:

FLL-UIO, JFK-BUR, GYE, GEO and of course LHR are all dedicated 321neo routes. They will pop up in any market operated with an all-Core 321.

Thank you. Is there any special reason why BUR is the only domestic destination to get the neo?

Short runways, mountains. It’s a special airport by FAA definition.

Didn't know that, thank you.

JoseSalazar · Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:16 pm

tphuang wrote:
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetblue_airways/usn/usnews-story.aspx?cid=981&newsid=79005
Unfortunately, it looks like Scott Laurence has gone to a competitor. Now, Dave Clark is now head of route planning.

Not good for jetblue. Wonder where he is going.

jfklganyc · Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:04 pm

tphuang wrote:
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetblue_airways/usn/usnews-story.aspx?cid=981&newsid=79005
Unfortunately, it looks like Scott Laurence has gone to a competitor. Now, Dave Clark is now head of route planning.

Yikes

OzarkD9S · Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:07 pm

tphuang wrote:

Now, Dave Clark is now head of route planning.

Can't see that name without thinking of "Glad All Over", "Bits And Pieces", "Over And Over" etc...

Anyways.

JoseSalazar · Wed Jan 05, 2022 4:27 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
tphuang wrote:
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetblue_airways/usn/usnews-story.aspx?cid=981&newsid=79005
Unfortunately, it looks like Scott Laurence has gone to a competitor. Now, Dave Clark is now head of route planning.

Not good for jetblue. Wonder where he is going.

Rumor is delta. Makes sense…if delta can hire someone away with all the internal knowledge of the NEA and the NYC/BOS network in general, it will likely help them a decent amount. With all this unusually high executive churn in the last 18 months, I sure hope the BOD is taking notice. That’s all I’ll say about that.

IdlewildJFK · Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:02 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
tphuang wrote:
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetblue_airways/usn/usnews-story.aspx?cid=981&newsid=79005
Unfortunately, it looks like Scott Laurence has gone to a competitor. Now, Dave Clark is now head of route planning.

Not good for jetblue. Wonder where he is going.

Rumor is delta. Makes sense…if delta can hire someone away with all the internal knowledge of the NEA and the NYC/BOS network in general, it will likely help them a decent amount. With all this unusually high executive churn in the last 18 months, I sure hope the BOD is taking notice. That’s all I’ll say about that.

Wouldn’t someone at his level have a non compete clause - especially if they were head of revenue and planning? Marty went to Norwegian so maybe the clause is US airlines only?

JoseSalazar · Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:17 pm

IdlewildJFK wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Not good for jetblue. Wonder where he is going.

Rumor is delta. Makes sense…if delta can hire someone away with all the internal knowledge of the NEA and the NYC/BOS network in general, it will likely help them a decent amount. With all this unusually high executive churn in the last 18 months, I sure hope the BOD is taking notice. That’s all I’ll say about that.

Wouldn’t someone at his level have a non compete clause - especially if they were head of revenue and planning? Marty went to Norwegian so maybe the clause is US airlines only?

Scott Kirby went straight to UA from AA. Probably just depends on SL’s employment agreement/contract. No idea if it contains a noncompete. With regards to Marty, his title was Chief Commercial Officer. Scott was Head of Revenue and Planning. Could be the officers (like Marty) have noncompetes and since SL wasn’t holding an officer position, he didn’t. But I don’t know, just guessing.

tphuang · Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:41 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
IdlewildJFK wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Rumor is delta. Makes sense…if delta can hire someone away with all the internal knowledge of the NEA and the NYC/BOS network in general, it will likely help them a decent amount. With all this unusually high executive churn in the last 18 months, I sure hope the BOD is taking notice. That’s all I’ll say about that.

Wouldn’t someone at his level have a non compete clause - especially if they were head of revenue and planning? Marty went to Norwegian so maybe the clause is US airlines only?

Scott Kirby went straight to UA from AA. Probably just depends on SL’s employment agreement/contract. No idea if it contains a noncompete. With regards to Marty, his title was Chief Commercial Officer. Scott was Head of Revenue and Planning. Could be the officers (like Marty) have noncompetes and since SL wasn’t holding an officer position, he didn’t. But I don’t know, just guessing.

Guys at that level often don't have non-compete. Guys at my level always do =(

I'm just trying to think about what he knows that would be really harmful to get out. From just a route planning point of view, I don't think JetBlue's performances at various NYC/Boston markets are secret. It's pretty obvious which markets they do well at. I think JetBlue would have far more to gain from poaching someone from a larger airline, since they'd have data to a bunch of markets where JetBlue doesn't fly to. As for NEA, I don't think it will surprise Delta (or someone else) where they are adding next. So far, they've basically just added every market that was obviously missing out of BOS. Out of JFK/BOS, I haven't seen JetBlue do anything really abnormal. Let's say that he is going to Delta. I think where AA might want to add next international out of JFK would be something Delta want to know. Another thing they'd want to know is how AA/B6 might be approaching corporate clients in the Northeast. Similarly, there are some senior level knowledge that most people would not have access to. For example, what is JetBlue's targeted growth look like for the next 5 years. Are they planning to add more to their fleet. What other partners are they talking to? For example, are they going to partner up with AS next? Are they joining OneWorld? What are JetBlue's plans for getting slots at LHR or other European airports.

I think BOD will definitely take this seriously. This is humiliating for JetBlue. I don't know what position Scott will be taking. If it's a head of route planning, they can at least play it off as lateral move to a larger airline. If it's to something below what he had in JetBlue, it would be really humiliating. Kind of stuff where Robin will need to give answers to the board. You can bet that Jetblue will try to poach someone (maybe at lower level) from a competitor.

I'd be interested in seeing what kind of changes we will see at JetBlue. I can only assume there was some conflicting vision of future growth between Scott and Robin. I hear Scott is the biggest FLL supporter. Robin is really passionate about London as you could imagine. I don't think near term planning changes very much. They need to build up NEA. I will be providing Q3 numbers in the coming days. Let's just say they have a lot of growth left out of both NYC and Boston. Maybe FLL growth will be pushed back a little bit. Maybe LAX growth gets pushed forward. I don't know. I hear that Scott is a risk taker. We saw that with a lot of stuff they tried out in the past 2 years. Maybe we go back to more of the MSG period slow burn. I hope not.

Just looking at their Q3 numbers, their LAX market share bumped up slightly to close to 9%. Maybe we will see less of stuff like LAX-CHS/RIC/BZN? Their SFO/Bay Area market share also reached out an all time high despite not doing much. In fact, I had them capture almost as much domestic revenue out of SFO as FLL. Maybe someone will push hard for and succeed in building something there. probably not, but we will see.

IdlewildJFK · Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:48 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
IdlewildJFK wrote:
JoseSalazar wrote:
Rumor is delta. Makes sense…if delta can hire someone away with all the internal knowledge of the NEA and the NYC/BOS network in general, it will likely help them a decent amount. With all this unusually high executive churn in the last 18 months, I sure hope the BOD is taking notice. That’s all I’ll say about that.

Wouldn’t someone at his level have a non compete clause - especially if they were head of revenue and planning? Marty went to Norwegian so maybe the clause is US airlines only?

Scott Kirby went straight to UA from AA. Probably just depends on SL’s employment agreement/contract. No idea if it contains a noncompete. With regards to Marty, his title was Chief Commercial Officer. Scott was Head of Revenue and Planning. Could be the officers (like Marty) have noncompetes and since SL wasn’t holding an officer position, he didn’t. But I don’t know, just guessing.

All makes sense thanks.

sfojvjets · Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:26 pm

tphuang wrote:
Their SFO/Bay Area market share also reached out an all time high despite not doing much. In fact, I had them capture almost as much domestic revenue out of SFO as FLL. Maybe someone will push hard for and succeed in building something there. probably not, but we will see.

Wow. I guess that's not so shocking, when you put the massive transcon yields into perspective, but it does make me wonder even more about what they are thinking about SFO...

I wonder what the new network guy will do with B6's west coast operation. Excited.

AirbusTech06 · Wed Jan 05, 2022 6:37 pm

Maybe FLL growth will be pushed back a little bit. Maybe LAX growth gets pushed forward. I don't know. I hear that Scott is a risk taker. We saw that with a lot of stuff they tried out in the past 2 years. Maybe we go back to more of the MSG period slow burn. I hope not

Is it really gonna change much??, Andrea Lusso VP of Nerwork Planning still here. He's had several interviews highlighting network strategy. We Will see if makes a difference in network direction. Terminal 3 is under going major renovations @ FLL wrapping up this year, that will increase capacity so there's that.

tu154 · Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:28 pm

AirbusTech06 wrote:
Maybe FLL growth will be pushed back a little bit. Maybe LAX growth gets pushed forward. I don't know. I hear that Scott is a risk taker. We saw that with a lot of stuff they tried out in the past 2 years. Maybe we go back to more of the MSG period slow burn. I hope not

Is it really gonna change much??, Andrea Lusso VP of Nerwork Planning still here. He's had several interviews highlighting network strategy. We Will see if makes a difference in network direction. Terminal 3 is under going major renovations @ FLL wrapping up this year, that will increase capacity so there's that.

Terminal 3 has been undergoing major renovations for years now, with no real end in site and very little progress to speak of. High rises in downtown Fort Lauderdale have been built and occupied faster than BCAD can get a gift shop, exit or restaurant built/renovated in terminal 3. The post security terminal looks much the same as it did pre covid. Endless construction with little results.

AirbusTech06 · Wed Jan 05, 2022 8:42 pm

tu154 wrote:
AirbusTech06 wrote:
Maybe FLL growth will be pushed back a little bit. Maybe LAX growth gets pushed forward. I don't know. I hear that Scott is a risk taker. We saw that with a lot of stuff they tried out in the past 2 years. Maybe we go back to more of the MSG period slow burn. I hope not

Is it really gonna change much??, Andrea Lusso VP of Nerwork Planning still here. He's had several interviews highlighting network strategy. We Will see if makes a difference in network direction. Terminal 3 is under going major renovations @ FLL wrapping up this year, that will increase capacity so there's that.

Terminal 3 has been undergoing major renovations for years now, with no real end in site and very little progress to speak of. High rises in downtown Fort Lauderdale have been built and occupied faster than BCAD can get a gift shop, exit or restaurant built/renovated in terminal 3. The post security terminal looks much the same as it did pre covid. Endless construction with little results.

Trust me I know, I've worked and flown out of this airport since '04. I call it the never ending construction. But you have to realize upgrades are needed it ain't like their tearing up and building a new T3. But seeing construction almost every day. You can see it's coming to an end(acknowledged by CEO) and badly needed. This holiday period it showed why they need upgrades to grow further.

11C · Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:24 pm

JoseSalazar wrote:
tphuang wrote:
http://otp.investis.com/clients/us/jetblue_airways/usn/usnews-story.aspx?cid=981&newsid=79005
Unfortunately, it looks like Scott Laurence has gone to a competitor. Now, Dave Clark is now head of route planning.

Not good for jetblue. Wonder where he is going.

I agree. Nobody could work a video conference like Scott. It was both enlightening, and entertaining, and he was usually very candid. His results speak for themselves.

11C · Wed Jan 05, 2022 9:26 pm

Blerg wrote:
11C wrote:
Blerg wrote:

Thank you. Is there any special reason why BUR is the only domestic destination to get the neo?

Short runways, mountains. It’s a special airport by FAA definition.

Didn't know that, thank you.

Your welcome. Even a 320CEO had a hard time taking a full load out of BUR on a transcon, so a 321CEO would have been even worse off.

tphuang · Thu Jan 06, 2022 1:01 am

sfojvjets wrote:
I wonder what the new network guy will do with B6's west coast operation. Excited.

Unless they bring someone new and give him/her the reign, I think JetBlue will be pushing Robin's vision until he decides to step down from JetBlue. It's hard to know what his visions are so far. Regardless of whether Scott is in charge or Dave is in charge or Robin is in charge, it should be pretty obvious to everyone there what works and what does not.

I agree. Nobody could work a video conference like Scott. It was both enlightening, and entertaining, and he was usually very candid. His results speak for themselves.

I like what Scott did too. I thought he was more adventurous/creative with his route selections than MSG. MSG was too conservative.

However, he also had a lot of stuff that didn't work. At this point, it's obvious that a lot of the transcons they added out of FLL are not working. They need to make some changes there. If they are going to make ita connection hub, then they should get places like PIT/BWI/IAD connected with FLL again to capture some of that latam flow. That stuff connects better than stuff like FLL-PHX/SEA/PDX. They are getting killed on those transcons.

There are also some long thin transcons added out of LAX (like JAX/RIC/CHS) that make sense once they have more connection in place and A220s in service, but are just flying half empty until then.

The next year or so will be very focused on NEA. They are going to be back to pre-COVID size out of FLL by next summer. I don't see them backing off from FLL. They have way too much invested and need to occupy the gates to keep NK from moving in. However, FLL has been generating lower margins than JFK/BOS. South Florida as a whole has seen way too much capacity in the past year.

On the other side, Cali airports are still 20 to 35% below preCOVID size in terms of seat counts. They are huge markets where mint clearly works. JetBlue saw huge growth in revenue out of LAX, SFO and SAN. Even accounting for international traffic, I'm pretty sure they captured more local revenue out of LAX than FLL in Q3. And they captured more local revenue out of SFO than MCO. So they should think about how to grow their presence in those markets.

I'd be curious to see what their network decisions will look like post-Scott. I don't think it will necessarily be worse off. Things didn't fall off the cliff when MSG left.

I think there are many other reasons why this is bad. Scott knows a lot of secret discussions or details regarding to JetBlue's future directions (not necessarily on route decisions out of JFK/BOS) that are not public. I'm sure AA will be a little pissed that a competitor (likely DL) will know the conversations they are having with JetBlue about which international destinations they are thinking of adding. There are quite a few NEA details like how they approach corporate accounts that B6 probably don't want a competitor to know. Similarly, JetBlue wouldn't want a competitor to know how they are seeking LHR slots or which European airports they are looking to add. And beyond that, JetBlue BOD and management will be humiliated by Scott leaving for a competitor. Those are things Robin and his team need to think about.

Abeam79 · Thu Jan 06, 2022 1:44 am

I think there are many other reasons why this is bad. Scott knows a lot of secret discussions or details regarding to JetBlue's future directions (not necessarily on route decisions out of JFK/BOS) that are not public. I'm sure AA will be a little pissed that a competitor (likely DL) will know the conversations they are having with JetBlue about which international destinations they are thinking of adding. There are quite a few NEA details like how they approach corporate accounts that B6 probably don't want a competitor to know. Similarly, JetBlue wouldn't want a competitor to know how they are seeking LHR slots or which European airports they are looking to add. And beyond that, JetBlue BOD and management will be humiliated by Scott leaving for a competitor. Those are things Robin and his team need to think about.[/quote]

We don’t know yet we’re he is going. It’s speculation, the official news just says “other opportunities” I think it will be I interesting if he goes back to UA or even more AA, all still possible. Heck he might go to Canada with west jet or even IAG.

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