BWIA330 wrote:

Just an FYI Air Canada just cancelled POS until next November. This only leaves BW on the YYZ-POS route for another year. Hopefully they will introduce more flights to YYZ to pick up the slack as WS has also discontiued POS at this time.

Why did they cancel pos???

Issue with duty reg's in Canada and it end's up being harder to crew. Also seems like the aircraft is better utilized on a more profitable route at this time.

AA will be quite happy to funnel pax through their MIA hub and onto their daily flight to POS.

baje427 wrote:

BWIA330 wrote:

Just an FYI Air Canada just cancelled POS until next November. This only leaves BW on the YYZ-POS route for another year. Hopefully they will introduce more flights to YYZ to pick up the slack as WS has also discontiued POS at this time.

Interesting, clearly the market dynamics in POS have changed significantly coming out of Covid it'll be interesting to see how things pan out next year.

Not the market dynamics, as BWs FB has many people complaining about inadequate YYZ airlift,, and others complaining about why JFK POS passengers are forced to fly via GEO.

This is about constrained carriers forced to deploy assets where best used from their point of view. Northern Caribbean leisure destinations are better for the Canadian carriers. It isnt that they cannot fill POS bound planes.

Sunclass resumes flights between Stockholm and Aruba

fb://photo/10159314394565814?set=a.2729 ... tid=Nif5oz

[*]

BWIA330 wrote:

Issue with duty reg's in Canada and it end's up being harder to crew. Also seems like the aircraft is better utilized on a more profitable route at this time.

This will also hinder any potential GEO route by AC as well.
AC really had the right aircraft with the high density Rouge 767 aircraft on the POS route.
If it is that neither WS or AC are capable of serving POS currently, might be a good time for BW to approach them with some sort of partnership arrangement to help facilitate onward connections across Canada. On the other end BW would be a good partner to open up access to GEO,OGL,PBM, TAB and POS for either WS or AC with little risk considering these are long and thin routes.WS might be more willing since they have been retreating from YYZ internationally to focus on western Canada and would be the least likely to have any interest in restarting flights to POS on its own metal.

Also We are now in December and 9Y-SUR is still sitting on the ground again heading into peak..BW paying around 300k+USD per month for a brand new aircraft to sit for 6 months and counting.

BW600 wrote:

Also We are now in December and 9Y-SUR is still sitting on the ground again heading into peak..BW paying around 300k+USD per month for a brand new aircraft to sit for 6 months and counting.

I wondered that myself.
Why is SUR still in the hangar?
Lack of crew? Maintenance issues?

Cheers,
AA1818

BW600 wrote:

[*]

BWIA330 wrote:

Issue with duty reg's in Canada and it end's up being harder to crew. Also seems like the aircraft is better utilized on a more profitable route at this time.

This will also hinder any potential GEO route by AC as well.
AC really had the right aircraft with the high density Rouge 767 aircraft on the POS route.
If it is that neither WS or AC are capable of serving POS currently, might be a good time for BW to approach them with some sort of partnership arrangement to help facilitate onward connections across Canada. On the other end BW would be a good partner to open up access to GEO,OGL,PBM, TAB and POS for either WS or AC with little risk considering these are long and thin routes.WS might be more willing since they have been retreating from YYZ internationally to focus on western Canada and would be the least likely to have any interest in restarting flights to POS on its own metal.

Also We are now in December and 9Y-SUR is still sitting on the ground again heading into peak..BW paying around 300k+USD per month for a brand new aircraft to sit for 6 months and counting.

I don’t see how any partnership with either AC or WS benefits BW. How many POS bound or originating pax need to connect beyond YYZ? Obviously there are some people but is it enough to warrant a partnership? As long as they have the monopoly on the route, anyone needing to get to POS will self connect by buying a separate ticket to YYZ and then flying BW. BW would bring far more to the table by being able to connect people to GEO, GND, BGI, etc. And BW can do that without partnering with either airline.

American Airlines have announce flights MIA-EIS from June 2023. Flights operated by Envoy using E175.

https://bvinews.com/american-airlines-t ... june-2023/

Works Minister Kye Rymer moments ago announced that the BVI will be receiving direct flights from Miami in the USA by mid-year 2023.

Minister Rymer said the American Airlines flights will begin from June 2023 and hailed the development as a breakthrough for the territory.

The minster said the airline will utilise the Embraer E-175 which can operate with the Terrance B Lettsome’s current airport length.

Rymer said the airline’s decision to resume flights with the territory demonstrates their overwhelming confidence in the BVI and the territory’s tourism product.

Jet air wants to increase its cur-sxm flights to 5 times a week next year.

Is there enough space in the market for ez air saab 2000, winair atr, and jetair f70 flights on this route???

LimaFoxTango wrote:

American Airlines have announce flights MIA-EIS from June 2023. Flights operated by Envoy using E175.

https://bvinews.com/american-airlines-t ... june-2023/

Works Minister Kye Rymer moments ago announced that the BVI will be receiving direct flights from Miami in the USA by mid-year 2023.

Minister Rymer said the American Airlines flights will begin from June 2023 and hailed the development as a breakthrough for the territory.

The minster said the airline will utilise the Embraer E-175 which can operate with the Terrance B Lettsome’s current airport length.

Rymer said the airline’s decision to resume flights with the territory demonstrates their overwhelming confidence in the BVI and the territory’s tourism product.

This (as well as EIS-JFK) are routes I've always though KX should be on, with the right aircraft.

Brickell305 wrote:

BW600 wrote:

[*]

BWIA330 wrote:

Issue with duty reg's in Canada and it end's up being harder to crew. Also seems like the aircraft is better utilized on a more profitable route at this time.

This will also hinder any potential GEO route by AC as well.
AC really had the right aircraft with the high density Rouge 767 aircraft on the POS route.
If it is that neither WS or AC are capable of serving POS currently, might be a good time for BW to approach them with some sort of partnership arrangement to help facilitate onward connections across Canada. On the other end BW would be a good partner to open up access to GEO,OGL,PBM, TAB and POS for either WS or AC with little risk considering these are long and thin routes.WS might be more willing since they have been retreating from YYZ internationally to focus on western Canada and would be the least likely to have any interest in restarting flights to POS on its own metal.

Also We are now in December and 9Y-SUR is still sitting on the ground again heading into peak..BW paying around 300k+USD per month for a brand new aircraft to sit for 6 months and counting.

I don’t see how any partnership with either AC or WS benefits BW. How many POS bound or originating pax need to connect beyond YYZ? Obviously there are some people but is it enough to warrant a partnership? As long as they have the monopoly on the route, anyone needing to get to POS will self connect by buying a separate ticket to YYZ and then flying BW. BW would bring far more to the table by being able to connect people to GEO, GND, BGI, etc. And BW can do that without partnering with either airline.

AC and BW have an interline agreement, so a call to a travel agent or to an AC or BW agent should get you a booking from point A to POS via YYZ or JFK on one ticket. An alternative as I've already posted is to go via MIA on AA.

it seems like POS is getting harder and harder to get to from the U.S. & Canada

gunnerman wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

BW600 wrote:

[*]


This will also hinder any potential GEO route by AC as well.
AC really had the right aircraft with the high density Rouge 767 aircraft on the POS route.
If it is that neither WS or AC are capable of serving POS currently, might be a good time for BW to approach them with some sort of partnership arrangement to help facilitate onward connections across Canada. On the other end BW would be a good partner to open up access to GEO,OGL,PBM, TAB and POS for either WS or AC with little risk considering these are long and thin routes.WS might be more willing since they have been retreating from YYZ internationally to focus on western Canada and would be the least likely to have any interest in restarting flights to POS on its own metal.

Also We are now in December and 9Y-SUR is still sitting on the ground again heading into peak..BW paying around 300k+USD per month for a brand new aircraft to sit for 6 months and counting.

I don’t see how any partnership with either AC or WS benefits BW. How many POS bound or originating pax need to connect beyond YYZ? Obviously there are some people but is it enough to warrant a partnership? As long as they have the monopoly on the route, anyone needing to get to POS will self connect by buying a separate ticket to YYZ and then flying BW. BW would bring far more to the table by being able to connect people to GEO, GND, BGI, etc. And BW can do that without partnering with either airline.

AC and BW have an interline agreement, so a call to a travel agent or to an AC or BW agent should get you a booking from point A to POS via YYZ or JFK on one ticket. An alternative as I've already posted is to go via MIA on AA.

Yes they do have an Interline agreement but similar to most interline agreements, an AC/BW interline ticket only makes sense for the highest fare categories which often are only ever bought last minute. It is always cheaper to buy two separate tickets and self connect as you stated.

AA’s current schedule facilitates very little connections from Canada to POS. UA is a better option currently and even that isn't great.

Sure, BW isn’t having any problems filling their current reduced schedule but there is a larger market for the taking. BW was up to two daily flights with a third daily at time during peak to YYZ prior to WS and AC starting POS. Many of those pax were self connections etc and that is the market that AC and WS took from BW. BW has a second shot to cement that market and protect its current monopoly on POS and GEO at the same time.

aa1818 wrote:

BW600 wrote:

Also We are now in December and 9Y-SUR is still sitting on the ground again heading into peak..BW paying around 300k+USD per month for a brand new aircraft to sit for 6 months and counting.

I wondered that myself.
Why is SUR still in the hangar?
Lack of crew? Maintenance issues?

Cheers,
AA1818

I believe a mixture of both was stated. BW’s decision to cut staff made sense at the time but must be really hurting them now especially the pilots who are in such high demand across the world now and would have found positions elsewhere easily.
BW was also aggressively taking MAX deliveries while still having multiple parked NG on property. Not sure what was the logic behind those decisions. They probably were contractually due to take the deliveries. 9Y-ANU and 9Y-GEO are still on property. All the parked aircraft alone and associated lease payments throughout the year probably wiped away any chance of BW profiting on the high fares and yields currently enjoyed.

Government steps in to help inter caribbean!

https://www.thenewtodaygrenada.com/loca ... caribbean/

So, the EMB 120 is "too slow" for the 55-minute flight from BGI to GND. Really? I don't think that pax are complaining about that.

And the EMB 120 is "too old". I know of several airlines which operate old aircraft safely and reliably, so is JY saying that they are not competent or funded to properly maintain the aircraft.

BW600 wrote:

All the parked aircraft alone and associated lease payments throughout the year probably wiped away any chance of BW profiting on the high fares and yields currently enjoyed.

...alternatively, perhaps the case of cause and effect are reversed. Considering that BW is currently enjoying a very high competitive advantage (with many competitors serving POS is diminished capacities), it's not immediately apparent that offering more seats in those markets, will increase their profits, especially considering that doing so will only increase their costs and lower potential yields further. Also, did Caribbean Airlines (and/or the aircraft lessor, and thus the lessee) receive compensation for delayed arrival of the 737 MAX?

gunnerman wrote:

So, the EMB 120 is "too slow" for the 55-minute flight from BGI to GND. Really? I don't think that pax are complaining about that.

And the EMB 120 is "too old". I know of several airlines which operate old aircraft safely and reliably, so is JY saying that they are not competent or funded to properly maintain the aircraft.

Perhaps the "too slow" comment is a bit unnecessary as the E120 matches speed with the ATR, but I think the "old and noisy" comment is fair. Some of JY's E120's are pushing 30 years old and indeed showing their age. By no means am I saying that reflects on their maintenance, but any 30 year old turboprop can't be fun to fly on. The region have gotten accustomed to LI and BW's ATRs which gives a far better ride and comfort than an E120.

If the EMB 20 is well-maintained then why is JY being slated for:
- "severe public criticisms" for the service between BGI and GND.
- unreliability
- maintenance issues leading to stranded passengers

I actually think the E120 has a faster max speed vs the ATR That being said JY's problems won't be fixed by adding 15 year old ATR's. JY's operations are stretched thin and they don't have the resources to adequately service their routes they fail especially with communications.

BW600 wrote:

aa1818 wrote:

BW600 wrote:

Also We are now in December and 9Y-SUR is still sitting on the ground again heading into peak..BW paying around 300k+USD per month for a brand new aircraft to sit for 6 months and counting.

I wondered that myself.
Why is SUR still in the hangar?
Lack of crew? Maintenance issues?

Cheers,
AA1818

I believe a mixture of both was stated. BW’s decision to cut staff made sense at the time but must be really hurting them now especially the pilots who are in such high demand across the world now and would have found positions elsewhere easily.
BW was also aggressively taking MAX deliveries while still having multiple parked NG on property. Not sure what was the logic behind those decisions. They probably were contractually due to take the deliveries. 9Y-ANU and 9Y-GEO are still on property. All the parked aircraft alone and associated lease payments throughout the year probably wiped away any chance of BW profiting on the high fares and yields currently enjoyed.

9Y-SUR will be operational very soon, just before the busy Christmas schedule kicks in.
And no BW is not paying 300K for an a/c to sit on the ground for 7 months; The contract BW got gave the airline the flexibility to not operate the a/c for this length of time as part of the compensation from Boeing and also the lessor/Boeing wanted to place the a/c asap during covid. BW is paying a little less than 300K per month in leases for those MAXs as Covid afforded the airline flexibility for leasing due to the slump in travel.

The contracts with the NGs were coming to an end and it made sense to remove them from operational perspective within the airline, plus the MAXs were delivered an average 6 months after they were manufactured due to contracts with the lessors. ANU and GEO could not be returned, because of parts issues to finish the contractual delivery to their lessors but they too will be gone very soon.

The other news here is that BW is painting their ATR fleet, with TTE done and TTC finishing soon also.

Rajahdhani wrote:

BW600 wrote:

All the parked aircraft alone and associated lease payments throughout the year probably wiped away any chance of BW profiting on the high fares and yields currently enjoyed.

...alternatively, perhaps the case of cause and effect are reversed. Considering that BW is currently enjoying a very high competitive advantage (with many competitors serving POS is diminished capacities), it's not immediately apparent that offering more seats in those markets, will increase their profits, especially considering that doing so will only increase their costs and lower potential yields further. Also, did Caribbean Airlines (and/or the aircraft lessor, and thus the lessee) receive compensation for delayed arrival of the 737 MAX?

Yes, they did receive a substantial compensation on the late delivery for the MAXs and also got favorable lease terms because of COVID as Boeing and the leasers want to place a/cs asap to airlines.
As to the competitive advantage yes but you also want to grow the market eventually, so capacity has to be added to bring incremental cost down. High fares mean that a competitor will eventually enter since they will look at it as an opportunity to exploit the "simulate" the market with capacity. Nothing stays static in aviation for long and eventually competition will return.

baje427 wrote:

windian425 wrote:

With the BGI-POS market so limited with capacity and high fares, why is JY not interested in entering this market? BW is not providing the much needed capacity; again we are seeing passengers having to fly BGI-MIA-POS.

JY seem to be struggling maintaining their current schedule as is until they can get themselves sorted I don't foresee any new routes.

Well honestly it is not easy to compete with BW on those regional routes out of POS due to the point of sale being more towards to POS side

For instance, BW will be adding 4 more weekly service to BGI with the 737s, 3 weekly already started this week and 1 more will be added mid Jan. So then how is JY going to compete with BW having 19 weekly flights between POS-BGI and will add more and the market demand comes back? Before the pandemic BW had anywhere between 21w-28w flights.

embraer175e2 wrote:

Jet air wants to increase its cur-sxm flights to 5 times a week next year.

Is there enough space in the market for ez air saab 2000, winair atr, and jetair f70 flights on this route???

We will see how that turns out but there seems to be demand between the Dutch Caribbean for business and leisure to warrant the capacity.

embraer175e2 wrote:

Jet air wants to increase its cur-sxm flights to 5 times a week next year.

Is there enough space in the market for ez air saab 2000, winair atr, and jetair f70 flights on this route???

Maybe would be the correct answer for this question. Nobody really knows what the future holds. However, right now the answer to this question is no. There isn't enough passenger demand for even daily flights as yet, never mind three carriers. But who knows what the economic situation in CUR and SXM will be in the future.

Winair will remain in the market, that much I know. They have a competitive advantage in that they can connect all of the Dutch Caribbean islands. ABC and SSS. Jetair and Ezair can't do that. In addition to the interline agreements that allow seamless connections to other carriers. You'll be surprised how many people book CUR-SXM-AMS with WM connecting to KL/AF as its sometimes much cheaper than flying direct. Or say from CUR to AUA to use the interline agreements to connect onto B6, or UA as AUA has more flight options.

Jetair and EzAirs flights will be quicker between CUR and SXM by nature of the aircraft they operate being much faster, but that's the extent of the competitive advantage that they will have. Will passengers be concerned about a difference of 15-30 minutes? Maybe. But I don't think so. Price, timing of flights, and frequency is what everybody seems to care about.

With AA dropping MIA-PBM, could/would BW see potential to increase services to PBM, to further capture U.S. based traffic?
Has/does anyone fly PBM-POS-XYZ (e.x. YYZ/JFK/MIA/MCO etc), and if so - what were your experiences like (and/or, what are better options, other than on PY?)?

Rajahdhani wrote:

With AA dropping MIA-PBM, could/would BW see potential to increase services to PBM, to further capture U.S. based traffic?
Has/does anyone fly PBM-POS-XYZ (e.x. YYZ/JFK/MIA/MCO etc), and if so - what were your experiences like (and/or, what are better options, other than on PY?)?

I’m skeptical on BW focusing much on PBM in the short term. There are much bigger fish to fry. BW’s schedules to other regional and North American destinations are still significantly below pre-pandemic levels and my guess is they plug holes there before restoring PBM to its pre-pandemic levels or going beyond that.

Rajahdhani wrote:

With AA dropping MIA-PBM, could/would BW see potential to increase services to PBM, to further capture U.S. based traffic?
Has/does anyone fly PBM-POS-XYZ (e.x. YYZ/JFK/MIA/MCO etc), and if so - what were your experiences like (and/or, what are better options, other than on PY?)?

Wow did not see that coming as AA don't usually drop flights from Miami to Caribbean/SA. Given the latest statistics up until May, loads were on par with other destinations with the covid fears and spikes. Also have to wonder if yields were not as good as flights usually go for about US$328 OW, and the cost of operating the A319 on such a route.
Well customers will then have to use BW and CM for travels to the US; BW was planning to go 3W to PBM with an ATR service but was pushed back, so we'll see when they plan the next schedule release what will be loaded.

AA's loads to and from PBM

YY-MM PAXs SEATS LF %
2021-6 0,117 0,172 68%
2021-7 0,115 0,172 67%
2021-8 0,129 0,172 75%
2021-9 2,666 3,968 67%
2021-10 3,414 5,632 61%
2021-11 3,346 5,376 62%
2021-12 3,947 5,632 70%
2022-1 3,183 5,376 59%
2022-2 2,899 5,120 57%
2022-3 3,541 5,504 64%
2022-4 4,272 5,504 78%
2022-5 4,224 5,760 73%

caribbean484 wrote:

Wow did not see that coming as AA don't usually drop flights from Miami to Caribbean/SA. Given the latest statistics up until May, loads were on par with other destinations with the covid fears and spikes. Also have to wonder if yields were not as good as flights usually go for about US$328 OW, and the cost of operating the A319 on such a route.
Well customers will then have to use BW and CM for travels to the US; BW was planning to go 3W to PBM with an ATR service but was pushed back, so we'll see when they plan the next schedule release what will be loaded.

AA's loads to and from PBM

YY-MM PAXs SEATS LF %
2021-6 0,117 0,172 68%
2021-7 0,115 0,172 67%
2021-8 0,129 0,172 75%
2021-9 2,666 3,968 67%
2021-10 3,414 5,632 61%
2021-11 3,346 5,376 62%
2021-12 3,947 5,632 70%
2022-1 3,183 5,376 59%
2022-2 2,899 5,120 57%
2022-3 3,541 5,504 64%
2022-4 4,272 5,504 78%
2022-5 4,224 5,760 73%

1). I did not see that either, and would have expected the cut to have been announced earlier in the year.
2). A major thank you for the research and the facts there. That ticket price does confuse me too, considering the lack of serious competition, and the type of aircraft used.
3). That was my thought about BW now reconsidering the addition of flights here, as it would be the best type of flying for the ATRs (...low competition, within range, and commuting to POS's connection).
4). While CM is a potent competitor, I do wonder how that back track (heading to the Eastern U.S.) affects the passenger base, and/or if the backtrack would encourage passengers more t PY and also perhaps BW. I wonder what cargo could look like on the route, with AA essentially ending the only link in their network.
5). Where did you get those statistic from? WOW, and thank you again for the research! Those load facts just show that AA must be seeing higher yields elsewhere (and admittedly, using the A319 here doesn't help), and crucially willing to cut where the flight does not work.

caribbean484 wrote:

Rajahdhani wrote:

With AA dropping MIA-PBM, could/would BW see potential to increase services to PBM, to further capture U.S. based traffic?
Has/does anyone fly PBM-POS-XYZ (e.x. YYZ/JFK/MIA/MCO etc), and if so - what were your experiences like (and/or, what are better options, other than on PY?)?

Wow did not see that coming as AA don't usually drop flights from Miami to Caribbean/SA. Given the latest statistics up until May, loads were on par with other destinations with the covid fears and spikes. Also have to wonder if yields were not as good as flights usually go for about US$328 OW, and the cost of operating the A319 on such a route.
Well customers will then have to use BW and CM for travels to the US; BW was planning to go 3W to PBM with an ATR service but was pushed back, so we'll see when they plan the next schedule release what will be loaded.

AA's loads to and from PBM

YY-MM PAXs SEATS LF %
2021-6 0,117 0,172 68%
2021-7 0,115 0,172 67%
2021-8 0,129 0,172 75%
2021-9 2,666 3,968 67%
2021-10 3,414 5,632 61%
2021-11 3,346 5,376 62%
2021-12 3,947 5,632 70%
2022-1 3,183 5,376 59%
2022-2 2,899 5,120 57%
2022-3 3,541 5,504 64%
2022-4 4,272 5,504 78%
2022-5 4,224 5,760 73%

On par?

Those are terrible loads for AA standards!

fowlr29 wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

Jet air wants to increase its cur-sxm flights to 5 times a week next year.

Is there enough space in the market for ez air saab 2000, winair atr, and jetair f70 flights on this route???

Maybe would be the correct answer for this question. Nobody really knows what the future holds. However, right now the answer to this question is no. There isn't enough passenger demand for even daily flights as yet, never mind three carriers. But who knows what the economic situation in CUR and SXM will be in the future.

Winair will remain in the market, that much I know. They have a competitive advantage in that they can connect all of the Dutch Caribbean islands. ABC and SSS. Jetair and Ezair can't do that. In addition to the interline agreements that allow seamless connections to other carriers. You'll be surprised how many people book CUR-SXM-AMS with WM connecting to KL/AF as its sometimes much cheaper than flying direct. Or say from CUR to AUA to use the interline agreements to connect onto B6, or UA as AUA has more flight options.

Jetair and EzAirs flights will be quicker between CUR and SXM by nature of the aircraft they operate being much faster, but that's the extent of the competitive advantage that they will have. Will passengers be concerned about a difference of 15-30 minutes? Maybe. But I don't think so. Price, timing of flights, and frequency is what everybody seems to care about.

Quote:"Maybe would be the correct answer for this question. Nobody really knows what the future holds. However, right now the answer to this question is no"

Good luck to them, competition is always good. But if there isnt even market for 1 airline to fly this route on daily bases, maybe like you said is true there wont be a market for 3 carriers on this route.

Soon we will find out!

SA280 wrote:

caribbean484 wrote:

Rajahdhani wrote:

With AA dropping MIA-PBM, could/would BW see potential to increase services to PBM, to further capture U.S. based traffic?
Has/does anyone fly PBM-POS-XYZ (e.x. YYZ/JFK/MIA/MCO etc), and if so - what were your experiences like (and/or, what are better options, other than on PY?)?

Wow did not see that coming as AA don't usually drop flights from Miami to Caribbean/SA. Given the latest statistics up until May, loads were on par with other destinations with the covid fears and spikes. Also have to wonder if yields were not as good as flights usually go for about US$328 OW, and the cost of operating the A319 on such a route.
Well customers will then have to use BW and CM for travels to the US; BW was planning to go 3W to PBM with an ATR service but was pushed back, so we'll see when they plan the next schedule release what will be loaded.

AA's loads to and from PBM

YY-MM PAXs SEATS LF %
2021-6 0,117 0,172 68%
2021-7 0,115 0,172 67%
2021-8 0,129 0,172 75%
2021-9 2,666 3,968 67%
2021-10 3,414 5,632 61%
2021-11 3,346 5,376 62%
2021-12 3,947 5,632 70%
2022-1 3,183 5,376 59%
2022-2 2,899 5,120 57%
2022-3 3,541 5,504 64%
2022-4 4,272 5,504 78%
2022-5 4,224 5,760 73%

On par?

Those are terrible loads for AA standards!

I agree. And with fleet and crews tight right now, it may have been best to devote resources elsewhere. Also, keep in mind that AA isn’t just assessing the route based on past performance. They are also looking at forward bookings and those likely did not look any better.

Rajahdhani wrote:

With AA dropping MIA-PBM, could/would BW see potential to increase services to PBM, to further capture U.S. based traffic?
Has/does anyone fly PBM-POS-XYZ (e.x. YYZ/JFK/MIA/MCO etc), and if so - what were your experiences like (and/or, what are better options, other than on PY?)?

Why did AA not just reduce frequency on this service instead of exiting the market completely. 3 to 4 weekly flights would likely improve Load Factors and yields.

windian425 wrote:

Why did AA not just reduce frequency on this service instead of exiting the market completely. 3 to 4 weekly flights would likely improve Load Factors and yields.

Methinks AA probably not getting a subsidy from the Suriname government.

LimaFoxTango wrote:

windian425 wrote:

Why did AA not just reduce frequency on this service instead of exiting the market completely. 3 to 4 weekly flights would likely improve Load Factors and yields.

Methinks AA probably not getting a subsidy from the Suriname government.

That would explain it. That's just greed on the part of AA.

BW and CM will benefit with AA's exit given that PY is a shell of itself.

SA280 wrote:

caribbean484 wrote:

Rajahdhani wrote:

With AA dropping MIA-PBM, could/would BW see potential to increase services to PBM, to further capture U.S. based traffic?
Has/does anyone fly PBM-POS-XYZ (e.x. YYZ/JFK/MIA/MCO etc), and if so - what were your experiences like (and/or, what are better options, other than on PY?)?

Wow did not see that coming as AA don't usually drop flights from Miami to Caribbean/SA. Given the latest statistics up until May, loads were on par with other destinations with the covid fears and spikes. Also have to wonder if yields were not as good as flights usually go for about US$328 OW, and the cost of operating the A319 on such a route.
Well customers will then have to use BW and CM for travels to the US; BW was planning to go 3W to PBM with an ATR service but was pushed back, so we'll see when they plan the next schedule release what will be loaded.

AA's loads to and from PBM

YY-MM PAXs SEATS LF %
2021-6 0,117 0,172 68%
2021-7 0,115 0,172 67%
2021-8 0,129 0,172 75%
2021-9 2,666 3,968 67%
2021-10 3,414 5,632 61%
2021-11 3,346 5,376 62%
2021-12 3,947 5,632 70%
2022-1 3,183 5,376 59%
2022-2 2,899 5,120 57%
2022-3 3,541 5,504 64%
2022-4 4,272 5,504 78%
2022-5 4,224 5,760 73%

On par?

Those are terrible loads for AA standards!

Well for instance, let's look at AA MIA load factors to the Eastern Caribbean

YY-MM PBM LF % GEO LF % POS LF % BGI LF % GND LF % DOM LF % ANU LF %
2021-6 68% 64% 0% 91% 86% 0% 73%
2021-7 67% 87% 0% 92% 91% 0% 76%
2021-8 75% 85% 0% 92% 77% 0% 76%
2021-9 67% 63% 0% 79% 63% 0% 82%
2021-10 61% 66% 0% 85% 77% 0% 77%
2021-11 62% 71% 86% 78% 53% 0% 75%
2021-12 70% 84% 84% 62% 63% 82% 64%
2022-1 59% 74% 69% 62% 54% 73% 43%
2022-2 57% 82% 67% 70% 54% 79% 50%
2022-3 64% 85% 77% 67% 64% 82% 57%
2022-4 78% 89% 79% 91% 87% 77% 63%
2022-5 73% 84% 80% 89% 86% 77% 84%

As we can see the LF for the Omicron variant in Jan-Mar varies with GEO enjoying stronger loads but as we can see the rest of the region was seeing low demand, so PBM was not very unique. So to with the below view from the Dutch Caribbean

YY-MM AUA LF % CUR LF % SXM LF %
2021-6 84% 85% 88%
2021-7 90% 96% 91%
2021-8 86% 91% 81%
2021-9 87% 80% 73%
2021-10 90% 85% 91%
2021-11 84% 83% 80%
2021-12 73% 72% 73%
2022-1 64% 41% 58%
2022-2 74% 51% 67%
2022-3 87% 59% 76%
2022-4 91% 70% 75%
2022-5 90% 79% 86%

IMO daily was too much for AA to run PBM and the A319 which has a much higher CASM than the larger MAX or NG in AA fleet is putting pressure on AA's yield, where they can place the a/c on a better route. The E175 does not have the legs to fly with the payload to PBM also.

data available here: https://transtats.bts.gov/DL_SelectFiel ... 20Pn44vr45

baje427 wrote:

BW and CM will benefit with AA's exit given that PY is a shell of itself.

Just an update 9Y-SUR today did test flights in POS and 9Y-GEO did ownership transfer proving flights today.

Brickell305 wrote:

BW600 wrote:

[*]

BWIA330 wrote:

Issue with duty reg's in Canada and it end's up being harder to crew. Also seems like the aircraft is better utilized on a more profitable route at this time.

This will also hinder any potential GEO route by AC as well.
AC really had the right aircraft with the high density Rouge 767 aircraft on the POS route.
If it is that neither WS or AC are capable of serving POS currently, might be a good time for BW to approach them with some sort of partnership arrangement to help facilitate onward connections across Canada. On the other end BW would be a good partner to open up access to GEO,OGL,PBM, TAB and POS for either WS or AC with little risk considering these are long and thin routes.WS might be more willing since they have been retreating from YYZ internationally to focus on western Canada and would be the least likely to have any interest in restarting flights to POS on its own metal.

Also We are now in December and 9Y-SUR is still sitting on the ground again heading into peak..BW paying around 300k+USD per month for a brand new aircraft to sit for 6 months and counting.

I don’t see how any partnership with either AC or WS benefits BW. How many POS bound or originating pax need to connect beyond YYZ? Obviously there are some people but is it enough to warrant a partnership? As long as they have the monopoly on the route, anyone needing to get to POS will self connect by buying a separate ticket to YYZ and then flying BW. BW would bring far more to the table by being able to connect people to GEO, GND, BGI, etc. And BW can do that without partnering with either airline.

Not sure why anyone will use BW from YYZ via POS to GND/BGI when the Canadian carriers fly nonstop to both islands.

Rajahdhani wrote:

caribbean484 wrote:

Wow did not see that coming as AA don't usually drop flights from Miami to Caribbean/SA. Given the latest statistics up until May, loads were on par with other destinations with the covid fears and spikes. Also have to wonder if yields were not as good as flights usually go for about US$328 OW, and the cost of operating the A319 on such a route.
Well customers will then have to use BW and CM for travels to the US; BW was planning to go 3W to PBM with an ATR service but was pushed back, so we'll see when they plan the next schedule release what will be loaded.

AA's loads to and from PBM

YY-MM PAXs SEATS LF %
2021-6 0,117 0,172 68%
2021-7 0,115 0,172 67%
2021-8 0,129 0,172 75%
2021-9 2,666 3,968 67%
2021-10 3,414 5,632 61%
2021-11 3,346 5,376 62%
2021-12 3,947 5,632 70%
2022-1 3,183 5,376 59%
2022-2 2,899 5,120 57%
2022-3 3,541 5,504 64%
2022-4 4,272 5,504 78%
2022-5 4,224 5,760 73%

1). I did not see that either, and would have expected the cut to have been announced earlier in the year.
2). A major thank you for the research and the facts there. That ticket price does confuse me too, considering the lack of serious competition, and the type of aircraft used.
3). That was my thought about BW now reconsidering the addition of flights here, as it would be the best type of flying for the ATRs (...low competition, within range, and commuting to POS's connection).
4). While CM is a potent competitor, I do wonder how that back track (heading to the Eastern U.S.) affects the passenger base, and/or if the backtrack would encourage passengers more t PY and also perhaps BW. I wonder what cargo could look like on the route, with AA essentially ending the only link in their network.
5). Where did you get those statistic from? WOW, and thank you again for the research! Those load facts just show that AA must be seeing higher yields elsewhere (and admittedly, using the A319 here doesn't help), and crucially willing to cut where the flight does not work.

AA dropping PBM is in line with carriers focusing on their most productive routes, given staffing and aircraft constraints. BW can add a 3rd flight to PBM and people will either feed with them, or with AA, if a market exists. PY gets a new lease of life for the O&D MIA PBM Surinamer travel.

caribny wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

BW600 wrote:

[*]


This will also hinder any potential GEO route by AC as well.
AC really had the right aircraft with the high density Rouge 767 aircraft on the POS route.
If it is that neither WS or AC are capable of serving POS currently, might be a good time for BW to approach them with some sort of partnership arrangement to help facilitate onward connections across Canada. On the other end BW would be a good partner to open up access to GEO,OGL,PBM, TAB and POS for either WS or AC with little risk considering these are long and thin routes.WS might be more willing since they have been retreating from YYZ internationally to focus on western Canada and would be the least likely to have any interest in restarting flights to POS on its own metal.

Also We are now in December and 9Y-SUR is still sitting on the ground again heading into peak..BW paying around 300k+USD per month for a brand new aircraft to sit for 6 months and counting.

I don’t see how any partnership with either AC or WS benefits BW. How many POS bound or originating pax need to connect beyond YYZ? Obviously there are some people but is it enough to warrant a partnership? As long as they have the monopoly on the route, anyone needing to get to POS will self connect by buying a separate ticket to YYZ and then flying BW. BW would bring far more to the table by being able to connect people to GEO, GND, BGI, etc. And BW can do that without partnering with either airline.

Not sure why anyone will use BW from YYZ via POS to GND/BGI when the Canadian carriers fly nonstop to both islands.

My point wasn’t that people would prefer to take BW over the nonstop options. My point was that BW doesn’t need to partner with AC or WS to connect people to places beyond POS. BW can do that now. The only benefit to BW would be the people connecting beyond YYZ to other Canadian destinations and they are likely to get a significant number of those people anyway via self-connects.

caribbean484 wrote:

Rajahdhani wrote:

With AA dropping MIA-PBM, could/would BW see potential to increase services to PBM, to further capture U.S. based traffic?
Has/does anyone fly PBM-POS-XYZ (e.x. YYZ/JFK/MIA/MCO etc), and if so - what were your experiences like (and/or, what are better options, other than on PY?)?

Wow did not see that coming as AA don't usually drop flights from Miami to Caribbean/SA. Given the latest statistics up until May, loads were on par with other destinations with the covid fears and spikes. Also have to wonder if yields were not as good as flights usually go for about US$328 OW, and the cost of operating the A319 on such a route.
Well customers will then have to use BW and CM for travels to the US; BW was planning to go 3W to PBM with an ATR service but was pushed back, so we'll see when they plan the next schedule release what will be loaded.

AA's loads to and from PBM

YY-MM PAXs SEATS LF %
2021-6 0,117 0,172 68%
2021-7 0,115 0,172 67%
2021-8 0,129 0,172 75%
2021-9 2,666 3,968 67%
2021-10 3,414 5,632 61%
2021-11 3,346 5,376 62%
2021-12 3,947 5,632 70%
2022-1 3,183 5,376 59%
2022-2 2,899 5,120 57%
2022-3 3,541 5,504 64%
2022-4 4,272 5,504 78%
2022-5 4,224 5,760 73%

Never mind...

Jetair to stop CUR-SDQ from March 2023 citing the following as reasons for pulling the route:

1. There is limited demand and excessive supply on the route CUR-SDQ-CUR
2. The visa requirements and the limited numbers of visas approved for Dominican citizens is a limiting factor for Tourism.
3. The extreme cost / taxes for the use of the “ Las Americas” airport.
4. The extreme fuel prices in the Dominican Republic.
5. The seasonality of the route.


WM also pulled SDQ back in Sptember. The market to DR has been oversaturated by Arajet for sure.

Jet Air Curacao is suspending its flights to Santo Domingo.
Looks like they are loosing money and cant compete against centurion sky high and arajet on this route.

fowlr29 wrote:

Jetair to stop CUR-SDQ from March 2023 citing the following as reasons for pulling the route:

1. There is limited demand and excessive supply on the route CUR-SDQ-CUR
2. The visa requirements and the limited numbers of visas approved for Dominican citizens is a limiting factor for Tourism.
3. The extreme cost / taxes for the use of the “ Las Americas” airport.
4. The extreme fuel prices in the Dominican Republic.
5. The seasonality of the route.


WM also pulled SDQ back in Sptember. The market to DR has been oversaturated by Arajet for sure.

Jet Air Curacao is suspending its flights to Santo Domingo.
Looks like they are loosing money and cant compete against centurion sky high and arajet on this route.

fowlr29 wrote:

WM also pulled SDQ back in Sptember. The market to DR has been oversaturated by Arajet for sure.

The market was already oversaturated before AraJet came, AraJet just saturated it more but it already was oversaturated before they started. In any case, sad news for Jetair Caribbean. I wish them luck on their other routes and hope to see them start new routes over time.

A388

A388 wrote:

fowlr29 wrote:

WM also pulled SDQ back in Sptember. The market to DR has been oversaturated by Arajet for sure.

The market was already oversaturated before AraJet came, AraJet just saturated it more but it already was oversaturated before they started. In any case, sad news for Jetair Caribbean. I wish them luck on their other routes and hope to see them start new routes over time.

A388

When ez air enters the curacao sint martin route with the saab2000, chances are that jet air has to reduce their 5 times a week flights to a lower frequency.

Is Arajet going to adjust their times on the SDQ-KIN-SDQ. It only allows for connections inbound to KIN, but not the other way around. Are they expecting travelers to overnight in SDQ for a lower fare out of KIN?

Slm has aquired a dry leased boeing737-800 from aercap.

Plane almost ready to be flown over to Surinam.

Picture and source:

https://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/nieuws/ ... urenschema

embraer175e2 wrote:

Slm has aquired a dry leased boeing737-800 from aercap.

Plane almost ready to be flown over to Surinam.

Picture and source:

https://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/nieuws/ ... urenschema

TriniA340 wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

Slm is working on having dry leased boeing 737-800 ng.
Also they are looking for dry leased equipment for mid atlantic route.

Very likely to be ex-Caribbean 9Y-JMF.

This worked out for Surinam - PZ-TCV is ex-9Y-JMF

The english translation of an article about the B737-800 for Surinam Airways.

The Surinamese state society has been plagued for years by financial problems, political interference and mismanagement. As a result, leasing companies recalled their aircraft earlier. However, Surinam Airways has succeeded in leasing another aircraft, this time from AerCap.

The plane in question is still in Arizona, where the last inspections and test flights take place. “Over the past few months, we have been working hard to bring in this aircraft,” the airline said in a statement.

New colours
The Boeing 737-800 with registration PZ-TCV carries a new color scheme, in which the winglets are provided with the Surinamese flag. The last aircraft to join the fleet, a Boeing 777 with only a handful of flights, also had a new livery, but it is no longer used.

The 737 will be used, among other things, on the important route to Miami, from which American Airlines will withdraw next year. Flights to Schiphol are still operated with an ex-KLM Airbus A330 leased from Airhub Airlines.

TriniA340 wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

Slm has aquired a dry leased boeing737-800 from aercap.

Plane almost ready to be flown over to Surinam.

Picture and source:

https://www.luchtvaartnieuws.nl/nieuws/ ... urenschema

TriniA340 wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

Slm is working on having dry leased boeing 737-800 ng.
Also they are looking for dry leased equipment for mid atlantic route.

Very likely to be ex-Caribbean 9Y-JMF.

This worked out for Surinam - PZ-TCV is ex-9Y-JMF

Picture of Airhub current a330 operating for SLM on a wet lease

https://www.facebook.com/10003228404207 ... tid=Nif5oz