embraer175e2 wrote:

Rwanda and Barbados discuss airlift capacity

https://www.stvincenttimes.com/rwanda-a ... -capacity/

I'd be surprised if anything materialised from these talks.

baje427 wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

Rwanda and Barbados discuss airlift capacity

https://www.stvincenttimes.com/rwanda-a ... -capacity/

I'd be surprised if anything materialised from these talks.

First it was Antigua with flights between Nigeria and Antigua, now this. I do applaud efforts trying to connect the Caribbean and Africa, but are there any data to suggest that flights between the two areas make any economical sense? Is this a "if you build it, they will come" kind of thing?

LimaFoxTango wrote:

baje427 wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

Rwanda and Barbados discuss airlift capacity

https://www.stvincenttimes.com/rwanda-a ... -capacity/

I'd be surprised if anything materialised from these talks.

First it was Antigua with flights between Nigeria and Antigua, now this. I do applaud efforts trying to connect the Caribbean and Africa, but are there any data to suggest that flights between the two areas make any economical sense? Is this a "if you build it, they will come" kind of thing?

Nothing is going to come out of either of these. Antigua Airways is an obvious scam. They’re supposed to start flights next month and there isn’t even a website up to buy tickets, any visible signs of them hiring staff, etc. In the case of BGI, at least that airline already exists and is functioning. However, there is obviously next to zero traffic between Rwanda and BGI so this is never going to happen.

embraer175e2 wrote:

Rwanda and Barbados discuss airlift capacity

https://www.stvincenttimes.com/rwanda-a ... -capacity/

This would have to be ACC/LOS to the Caribbean. Problem is I dont think that any one Caribbean point will generate/attract enough to make this attractive. Maybe flying to POS instead with a BW feed to GEO, BGI and KIN.

LimaFoxTango wrote:

BW600 wrote:

The TAB domestic route is currently subsidised $50TT each way. This puts the total revenue for BW at $400TT on a return trip. BW currently funds the shortfall between that revenue and actual cost through its own operations. Clearly the TT government is unwilling to raise the 50$ subsidy and is willing to let BW sustain the losses which ironically they end up funding through cash injections anyway.
While the subsidy does need adjusting upwards it should also be set at a low enough level that also encourages BW to be as efficient as possible in its operation of the route.

That being said there is more than enough excess capacity on the ferry route. The airbridge should not be seen as essential. A ferry only takes 2.5 hours. This service should be the priority and is already massively subsidized even more than the airbridge. The airbridge has become more of a luxury now as opposed to essential and at $300TT the price is now perceived as low enough after years of inflation that it competes with the ferry which should not be the case.

Im not going to discuss the virtues of air bridge vs sea, but to say the airbridge should not be seen as essential is one helluva statement. Not everyone has the time for a 2.5hr journey one way. 5 hours of travel is alot of time in a day to "waste" when one just need a day trip. The govt simply needs to raise the airfare to a more reasonable but less subsidised rate. Maybe that will drive people who are on a less time critical trip to use the ferry.

The political reality is that elections on Trinidad itself are usually quite close and on more than one occasion TABs 2 parliamentary seats determined which party won. What would probably make sense is for a "Tobago Airbridge" company to be set up purely for handling this route. They then outsource the operations to BW which services this for a fee. The losses are then fully absorbed by the GoTT.

What obtains now are excess services at times meaning that BW must eat the losses on unused seats. Under this arrangement BW and the GoTT agree on a fee structure that allows BW to at least break even on this route. GoTT cannot demand that BW be viable and then burden it with politically instigated losses.

embraer175e2 wrote:

baje427 wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

Liat should be operating out of 2 hubs in order to ensure being efficient:

https://www.stvincenttimes.com/new-liat ... fficiency/

The ANU is never going to give up ANU as a hub but at this stage this is all wishful thinking until they can get financing. I'd also be curious if they'd be able to recruit crew given how they left their pilots and cabin crew out to sea.

I think intercaribbean should take their routes over , using e120s and atrs.

If Inter had the capacity to do so this would already have happened. They were fine during the depressed pandemic era but with some recovery of travel they cannot fully service the market. BW might be able to, maybe with more ATRs but I doubt they will take the risk, given that its increasingly difficult for them to demand largesse from the GoTT. BW I suspect will focus more on POS originating flights and leave other intra-regional markets to others. LI, JY and WM should collaborate.

caribny wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

baje427 wrote:

The ANU is never going to give up ANU as a hub but at this stage this is all wishful thinking until they can get financing. I'd also be curious if they'd be able to recruit crew given how they left their pilots and cabin crew out to sea.

I think intercaribbean should take their routes over , using e120s and atrs.

If Inter had the capacity to do so this would already have happened. They were fine during the depressed pandemic era but with some recovery of travel they cannot fully service the market. BW might be able to, maybe with more ATRs but I doubt they will take the risk, given that its increasingly difficult for them to demand largesse from the GoTT. BW I suspect will focus more on POS originating flights and leave other intra-regional markets to others. LI, JY and WM should collaborate.

JY's schedule into BGI still have a bit of slack I'm not sure if it's staffing or lack of demand. Has inter regional demand shown signs of recovery yet ? Out of BGI BW's POS-BGI route is the only one I can think of which seems to have increased capacity steadily.

baje427 wrote:

caribny wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

I think intercaribbean should take their routes over , using e120s and atrs.

If Inter had the capacity to do so this would already have happened. They were fine during the depressed pandemic era but with some recovery of travel they cannot fully service the market. BW might be able to, maybe with more ATRs but I doubt they will take the risk, given that its increasingly difficult for them to demand largesse from the GoTT. BW I suspect will focus more on POS originating flights and leave other intra-regional markets to others. LI, JY and WM should collaborate.

JY's schedule into BGI still have a bit of slack I'm not sure if it's staffing or lack of demand. Has inter regional demand shown signs of recovery yet ? Out of BGI BW's POS-BGI route is the only one I can think of which seems to have increased capacity steadily.

ANU released July arrival numbers and the Caribbean was down 20% compared to the same period in 2019. Not great, but not terrible either with all the capacity that has been cut. I suspect BGI may be down more than that because of the lack of embassy travel.

baje427 wrote:

caribny wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

I think intercaribbean should take their routes over , using e120s and atrs.

If Inter had the capacity to do so this would already have happened. They were fine during the depressed pandemic era but with some recovery of travel they cannot fully service the market. BW might be able to, maybe with more ATRs but I doubt they will take the risk, given that its increasingly difficult for them to demand largesse from the GoTT. BW I suspect will focus more on POS originating flights and leave other intra-regional markets to others. LI, JY and WM should collaborate.

JY's schedule into BGI still have a bit of slack I'm not sure if it's staffing or lack of demand. Has inter regional demand shown signs of recovery yet ? Out of BGI BW's POS-BGI route is the only one I can think of which seems to have increased capacity steadily.

1. BGI is but one of several regional destinations, so even if BGI has adequate service that doesnt mean that there isnt a problem of regional access.

2. There must be a problem because virtually all of the stakeholders involved on intra regional travel are now discussing this. A poster here claimed that flights from GND to BGI were recently fully booked out for at least 2 weeks I can only imagine what must be happening on the SVD BGI and SLU BGI and even DOM BGI where travel is higher.

3. I suspect that the biggest problems might be within the OECS and between those islands and other points in the Eastern Caribbean, especially those at the northern end of the chain. I dont think that there are problems on the POS BGI and POS GEO routes. POS KIN is almost back to normal so that should be fine, though service only on Tu and Th on the BGI KIN might be inconvenient for some people.

4. Frequencies are low, connecting times inconvenient, or travel times inordinate. A problem is that the public perceives travel to be risky and difficult so many dont travel within the region. I can only wonder what is happening to outbound travel for those who dont already have long term visas, given the long waiting periods in most US consulates. So the MIA escape isnt necessarily possible for some.

Several routes out of BGI are still capacity constrained. BGI-POS, BGI-KIN, BGI-SVD, BGI-SLU, etc. Passengers have been travelling BGI-MIA to connect to POS & KIN.

Governments need to provide VS with traffic rights between BGI-SVD, BGI-GND and BGI-TAB. This could relieve some of the pressure.

windian425 wrote:

Several routes out of BGI are still capacity constrained. BGI-POS, BGI-KIN, BGI-SVD, BGI-SLU, etc. Passengers have been travelling BGI-MIA to connect to POS & KIN.

Governments need to provide VS with traffic rights between BGI-SVD, BGI-GND and BGI-TAB. This could relieve some of the pressure.

Why not governments just provide an enabling environment for LI, JY, BW, or WM to expand their service rather than allow the likes of VS or even BA to come in and "relieve some of the pressure"?

Well BA already have traffic rights between the islands and provide some supportive airlift, why wouldn't VS be allowed the same.. Those empty seats would be useful right now.

LimaFoxTango wrote:

windian425 wrote:

Several routes out of BGI are still capacity constrained. BGI-POS, BGI-KIN, BGI-SVD, BGI-SLU, etc. Passengers have been travelling BGI-MIA to connect to POS & KIN.

Governments need to provide VS with traffic rights between BGI-SVD, BGI-GND and BGI-TAB. This could relieve some of the pressure.

Why not governments just provide an enabling environment for LI, JY, BW, or WM to expand their service rather than allow the likes of VS or even BA to come in and "relieve some of the pressure"?

I agree. I also don’t see why that added capacity is needed on a route like BGI-TAB where even pre-pandemic, there wasn’t that much demand. On top of that, it’s not like BA’s intra-Caribbean flights are going out full. In almost all instances, the majority of LGW originating pax disembark at the first destination, a handful of pax board at that first stop onto the second stop. Letting VS carry 10-20 pax on a flight between BGI and SVD a few times a week doesn’t really solve the real issues with intraregional travel at the moment.

The BGI-TAB was not a good example of needed capacity. BGI-SVD and BGI-GND on the other hand could use the extra capacity with each having twice weekly services in each direction. I could easily see more like 40-50 pax in each direction on each day with even more during peak regional travel periods. While not a complete solution, it could provide relief at this point until other regional carriers can ramp up capacity. And as an added bonus, VS get to supplement revenues and the islands get to secure airlift. We all win.

windian425 wrote:

The BGI-TAB was not a good example of needed capacity. BGI-SVD and BGI-GND on the other hand could use the extra capacity with each having twice weekly services in each direction. I could easily see more like 40-50 pax in each direction on each day with even more during peak regional travel periods. While not a complete solution, it could provide relief at this point until other regional carriers can ramp up capacity. And as an added bonus, VS get to supplement revenues and the islands get to secure airlift. We all win.

BA enjoys route rights that were grandfathered from the old colonial days when BWIA was their subsidiary. If VS is given route rights within the Caribbean then other foreign airlines might demand that right. While there are temporary constraints due to LIATs issues at some point there will be resolution to this. What happens then? In fact regional carriers might decide not to increase risky regional routes if a major carrier can come in, and compete with them, potentially at rock bottom fares.

Maybe regional carriers can be allowed to sell seats on VS (if VS agrees) until carriers can ramp up. So this will be more like a regional carrier using VS as a charter rather than giving VS rights. But we have to think seriously if some US carrier like Silver steps in, even as no CARICOM carrier will be allowed to fly pax within the US Caribbean. CARICOM needs to ensure adequate regional airlift and it cannot entrust this to entities over which they have no influence. They do over BW, LI, JY, WM and maybe even 3S (given that FDF/PTP have levels of OECS membership).

windian425 wrote:

Several routes out of BGI are still capacity constrained. BGI-POS, BGI-KIN, BGI-SVD, BGI-SLU, etc. Passengers have been travelling BGI-MIA to connect to POS & KIN.

Governments need to provide VS with traffic rights between BGI-SVD, BGI-GND and BGI-TAB. This could relieve some of the pressure.

What an interesting trip to do BGI MIA POS. But then people are flying GND MIA ANU, and ANU MIA STT. If folks provide some revenue guarantees in the southern Caribbean, I suspect that BW might help out.

caribny wrote:

What an interesting trip to do BGI MIA POS. But then people are flying GND MIA ANU, and ANU MIA STT. If folks provide some revenue guarantees in the southern Caribbean, I suspect that BW might help out.

In addition to the routings you've mentioned, I've known people to do ANU-MIA-GND, ANU-JFK-GEO, ANU-JFK-BGI, ANU-MIA-STX, ANU-MIA-KIN. Sometimes it works out cheaper than LI, JY, BW and even allows a shorter trip.

caribny wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

baje427 wrote:

The ANU is never going to give up ANU as a hub but at this stage this is all wishful thinking until they can get financing. I'd also be curious if they'd be able to recruit crew given how they left their pilots and cabin crew out to sea.

I think intercaribbean should take their routes over , using e120s and atrs.

If Inter had the capacity to do so this would already have happened. They were fine during the depressed pandemic era but with some recovery of travel they cannot fully service the market. BW might be able to, maybe with more ATRs but I doubt they will take the risk, given that its increasingly difficult for them to demand largesse from the GoTT. BW I suspect will focus more on POS originating flights and leave other intra-regional markets to others. LI, JY and WM should collaborate.

Maybe nobody want to take the risk

caribny wrote:

BA enjoys route rights that were grandfathered from the old colonial days when BWIA was their subsidiary. If VS is given route rights within the Caribbean then other foreign airlines might demand that right. While there are temporary constraints due to LIATs issues at some point there will be resolution to this. What happens then? In fact regional carriers might decide not to increase risky regional routes if a major carrier can come in, and compete with them, potentially at rock bottom fares.

Maybe regional carriers can be allowed to sell seats on VS (if VS agrees) until carriers can ramp up. So this will be more like a regional carrier using VS as a charter rather than giving VS rights. But we have to think seriously if some US carrier like Silver steps in, even as no CARICOM carrier will be allowed to fly pax within the US Caribbean. CARICOM needs to ensure adequate regional airlift and it cannot entrust this to entities over which they have no influence. They do over BW, LI, JY, WM and maybe even 3S (given that FDF/PTP have levels of OECS membership).

Caribbean regional is not like cabotage in the USA, regional route flown by BA for example are high priced because they are the only one's offering jet service and they can charge what they will and the pax will pay, in my opinion they have no interest in offering competitive fares, they simply use the greater percentage of the long haul section to pay for the local route. The UK government said as much when they introduced APD Caribbean rates that were higher than those to US destinations much further away.
As for government support, the majority of pax into the Caribbean are via foreign carriers, and local government would quicker support those carriers versus local carriers, we all heard the justifications of greater networks larger markets to draw from etc etc etc, so why be protective of the local market? At present we need the traffic to flow, in time we will be able to intervene to ensure that our local carriers are profitable, history has shown that attempting to do both at the same is not sustainable.
Outside the bounds of this thread but a review of why Caricom has not been more successful in human traffic between our islands is interesting, trade has and continues to grow, more so with the Covid experience and the inflationary pressures now taking place.

Unless more capacity and frequency is available for intraregional travel, we will soon see ridiculous routings like SVD-MIA-BGI. We already see this with POS-MIA-BGI.

windian425 wrote:

Unless more capacity and frequency is available for intraregional travel, we will soon see ridiculous routings like SVD-MIA-BGI. We already see this with POS-MIA-BGI.

The POS-MIA-BGI one makes me question BW’s competence especially if you’re saying BGI-KIN is also underserved. They’ve essentially restored POS-KIN back to normal. What’s stopping them from including BGI as an intermediate stop between POS and KIN on more days?

Pre-pandemic BGI-KIN-BGI was daily with most if not all flights starting and ending in BGI. Despite either a 2-stop or 1-stop via POS, a daily service was maintained. Even then, BGI-MIA-KIN remained popular especially amongst the AA frequent flyers and high level corporate business travelers. In 2022, that option is even more attractive because of frequency; unless of course you don't have a US Visa. The POS-MIA-BGI is new due to lack of capacity between BGI-POS. When corporate travelers absolutely need to trave on specific days, this often happens. Even BGI-OGL/GEO-POS has been used in both directions despite having to change airport in some cases. These are real situations that are occurring on a regular basis.

Unfortunately BW would rather have planes parked on the ground than hire back flight crew laid off last year.
So guess unless there is a drastic change in their HR department no extra flights will be undertaken.

I've recently been looking at some MIA trips, BW pre Covid were usually an option but I've noticed they aren't this time unless that's due to the dates I was looking at. As others have pointed out I don't think BW would be leaving profitable routes off the table.

windian425 wrote:

Several routes out of BGI are still capacity constrained. BGI-POS, BGI-KIN, BGI-SVD, BGI-SLU, etc. Passengers have been travelling BGI-MIA to connect to POS & KIN.

Governments need to provide VS with traffic rights between BGI-SVD, BGI-GND and BGI-TAB. This could relieve some of the pressure.

My understanding of this has been that VS are not keen on operating the shuttles as inter-island passenger-carrying services like BA do. Of course BA have the legacy rights which they use to good effect and, in fact, they are often cheaper than other airlines between the islands concerned. It has been noted that their fares on POS-UVF are lower than BW on POS-SLU and so many holiday packages to St Lucia sold in Trinidad use the BA flights. The rearrangement of POS flights to LGW nonstops next year will end this arrangement and one wonder whether BW would up SLU to daily by then.

People do use, for example, TAB-ANU on BA as an alternative to POS-ANU on BW if the latter is sold out. The only drawback is the Airbridge may not have capacity at the desired time for POS passengers to allow the connection.

The overwhelming issue is that regional flights are still way below the norm pre-pandemic. The reasons for this would be interesting to dissect. One suspects that the varying rates of markets opening up and keeping or dropping restrictions would be an issue as would be the economic fallout of the pandemic and, as mentioned, the drop in US Embassy traffic to islands designated to handle those documents for neighbouring nations.

Trintocan.

windian425 wrote:

Pre-pandemic BGI-KIN-BGI was daily with most if not all flights starting and ending in BGI. Despite either a 2-stop or 1-stop via POS, a daily service was maintained. Even then, BGI-MIA-KIN remained popular especially amongst the AA frequent flyers and high level corporate business travelers. In 2022, that option is even more attractive because of frequency; unless of course you don't have a US Visa. The POS-MIA-BGI is new due to lack of capacity between BGI-POS. When corporate travelers absolutely need to trave on specific days, this often happens. Even BGI-OGL/GEO-POS has been used in both directions despite having to change airport in some cases. These are real situations that are occurring on a regular basis.

CM just re-started BGI, so POS-BGI could be possible via PTY, however that would most likely include a long PTY connection time between flights either outbound or inbound. Also MBJ/KIN/SXM/CUR/AUA for POS are available via PTY.

lilac1 wrote:

Unfortunately BW would rather have planes parked on the ground than hire back flight crew laid off last year.
So guess unless there is a drastic change in their HR department no extra flights will be undertaken.

To be fair, BW was grounded, POS and TAB were closed.
The airline is ramping back up and given the meltdowns of the world's major alliances, I'd say kudos to BW for constrained, measured return to normal operations/ growth. I expect this restraint to continue for the next six months.

Up to recently, BA just reshuffled October flights cancelling one of my European flights causing a slew of painful changes to a trip booked only a couple weeks before.

lilac1 I think you need to consider the conditions under which BW continued to exist from March 2020 to July 2021 and the very restrictive conditions they operated under up to just a few months ago.

Cheers,
AA1818

par13del wrote:

caribny wrote:

BA enjoys route rights that were grandfathered from the old colonial days when BWIA was their subsidiary. If VS is given route rights within the Caribbean then other foreign airlines might demand that right. While there are temporary constraints due to LIATs issues at some point there will be resolution to this. What happens then? In fact regional carriers might decide not to increase risky regional routes if a major carrier can come in, and compete with them, potentially at rock bottom fares.

Maybe regional carriers can be allowed to sell seats on VS (if VS agrees) until carriers can ramp up. So this will be more like a regional carrier using VS as a charter rather than giving VS rights. But we have to think seriously if some US carrier like Silver steps in, even as no CARICOM carrier will be allowed to fly pax within the US Caribbean. CARICOM needs to ensure adequate regional airlift and it cannot entrust this to entities over which they have no influence. They do over BW, LI, JY, WM and maybe even 3S (given that FDF/PTP have levels of OECS membership).

Caribbean regional is not like cabotage in the USA, regional route flown by BA for example are high priced because they are the only one's offering jet service and they can charge what they will and the pax will pay, in my opinion they have no interest in offering competitive fares, they simply use the greater percentage of the long haul section to pay for the local route. The UK government said as much when they introduced APD Caribbean rates that were higher than those to US destinations much further away.
As for government support, the majority of pax into the Caribbean are via foreign carriers, and local government would quicker support those carriers versus local carriers, we all heard the justifications of greater networks larger markets to draw from etc etc etc, so why be protective of the local market? At present we need the traffic to flow, in time we will be able to intervene to ensure that our local carriers are profitable, history has shown that attempting to do both at the same is not sustainable.
Outside the bounds of this thread but a review of why Caricom has not been more successful in human traffic between our islands is interesting, trade has and continues to grow, more so with the Covid experience and the inflationary pressures now taking place.

The intra regional market is the 3rd for most Eastern Caribbean countries. It also fills a niche for smaller hotels and service providers allowing a broader range of people to be involved in tourism. Yet we will get excited and will happily subsidize a flight from Germany, even though it is debatable about how much benefit this highly vertically integrated type of tourism brings to ordinary people in the Caribbean, given the fact that mega tour operators squeeze low prices out of the local providers and sometimes do not even pay on time. Your TT family pays local providers directly.

And yes it is our self hate which explains much that is wrong with CARICOM and why it lives below potential and, contrary to popular belief, it isnt only the governments to blame. Its the very people who get excited about the German market and not that of T&T even though the latter generates more opportunities.

We are here speculating about VS when we dont even know if they will want the bother of entering into intra regional travel. They certainly arent going to offer the frequencies,and might even want to periodically suspend certain routes during soft periods. Also because these islands are so close there isnt that much difference between an ATR and a 777, say between BGI and SVD. The only benefit will be those shipping cargo and I dont know that VS is in that line of business.

I think that the English Caribbean either needs to shut down CARICOM and quickly learn how irrelevant they are as individual tiny nations. Or understand that without the efficient movement of people and products it cannot develop. If we want to diversify our economies its best to do so by servicing the needs of clients located 200 miles away who operate within a similar cultural context and level of development, than to think that someone in NYC will seriously view a Caribbean provider in some non tourism sector. A start up digital service provider in POS cannot develop markets in BGI or ANU if they must obtain a US visa and fly via MIA.

So we can come up with all sorts of excuses to justify why someone leaves ANU for POS travelling via MIA or JFK, and then wonder why the small hotels which depend on the regional traveler, or the small bars, or the small restaurants, close down.

baje427 wrote:

maverick4002 wrote:

BW used 9Y-ANU, one of the old NGs to operate POS-MIA-POS today. What is that about?

Apparently they are having some teething issues with the Max8.

Sorry for the late reply, BW is having parts issues with the MAX. That's why 9Y-SUR is still grounded, as they were using parts from that a/c to the others. This is not unique to BW as all airlines are facing the same issue, which is why we were seeing cancellations and delays. If its not crew issues its parts issues. This brings me to this:

aa1818 wrote:

lilac1 wrote:

Unfortunately BW would rather have planes parked on the ground than hire back flight crew laid off last year.
So guess unless there is a drastic change in their HR department no extra flights will be undertaken.

To be fair, BW was grounded, POS and TAB were closed.
The airline is ramping back up and given the meltdowns of the world's major alliances, I'd say kudos to BW for constrained, measured return to normal operations/ growth. I expect this restraint to continue for the next six months.

Up to recently, BA just reshuffled October flights cancelling one of my European flights causing a slew of painful changes to a trip booked only a couple weeks before.

lilac1 I think you need to consider the conditions under which BW continued to exist from March 2020 to July 2021 and the very restrictive conditions they operated under up to just a few months ago.

Cheers,
AA1818

The reason ramp up is slow is because the airline is playing it safe for the time being as they are having fleet issues at the moment. This is why you are seeing them ramping up a bit from November, however I still think it's not enough as BGI should be seeing daily 737 at this point. Prior to the pandemic BW had daily BGI-KIN through POS and 2w non-stop BGI-KIN.
I truly see the need for them to add more flights to ANU, BGI, GND, SLU, CUR.

https://antiguaairways.com/

https://www.gatechecked.com/antigua-air ... aunch-6830

Interesting times. I will not be holding my breath.

Cheers,
AA1818

aa1818 wrote:

https://antiguaairways.com/

https://www.gatechecked.com/antigua-air ... aunch-6830

Interesting times. I will not be holding my breath.

Cheers,
AA1818

A bit late or early for April fools.

caribbean484 wrote:

baje427 wrote:

maverick4002 wrote:

BW used 9Y-ANU, one of the old NGs to operate POS-MIA-POS today. What is that about?

Apparently they are having some teething issues with the Max8.

Sorry for the late reply, BW is having parts issues with the MAX. That's why 9Y-SUR is still grounded, as they were using parts from that a/c to the others. This is not unique to BW as all airlines are facing the same issue, which is why we were seeing cancellations and delays. If its not crew issues its parts issues. This brings me to this:

aa1818 wrote:

lilac1 wrote:

Unfortunately BW would rather have planes parked on the ground than hire back flight crew laid off last year.
So guess unless there is a drastic change in their HR department no extra flights will be undertaken.

To be fair, BW was grounded, POS and TAB were closed.
The airline is ramping back up and given the meltdowns of the world's major alliances, I'd say kudos to BW for constrained, measured return to normal operations/ growth. I expect this restraint to continue for the next six months.

Up to recently, BA just reshuffled October flights cancelling one of my European flights causing a slew of painful changes to a trip booked only a couple weeks before.

lilac1 I think you need to consider the conditions under which BW continued to exist from March 2020 to July 2021 and the very restrictive conditions they operated under up to just a few months ago.

Cheers,
AA1818

The reason ramp up is slow is because the airline is playing it safe for the time being as they are having fleet issues at the moment. This is why you are seeing them ramping up a bit from November, however I still think it's not enough as BGI should be seeing daily 737 at this point. Prior to the pandemic BW had daily BGI-KIN through POS and 2w non-stop BGI-KIN.
I truly see the need for them to add more flights to ANU, BGI, GND, SLU, CUR.

I also suspect demand is still weak. It’s not just BW. AA is down to one flight daily out of MIA in January/February even up to the week before carnival. B6 as we know has canceled FLL-POS and is still only at 1x daily out of JFK even through carnival. If it were just BW, I’d say this is specific to them but multiple airlines serving POS are retrenching.

Sky high flying to Tortola with E190. Appears to be sheduled flights.

https://www.facebook.com/12479555585705 ... pLcyZPUil/

embraer175e2 wrote:

Sky high flying to Tortola with E190. Appears to be sheduled flights.

https://www.facebook.com/12479555585705 ... pLcyZPUil/

I wonder when their STT services will be starting

https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/09/15/u-s ... ategories/
Does this mean that regional travel for US visas will also resume? If so, we currently don't have enough airlift to facilitate a return to business as usual. Or will additional airlift improve to meet any such demand?

embraer175e2 wrote:

Sky high flying to Tortola with E190. Appears to be sheduled flights.

Well, with one E190 aircraft on property, I'm sure these flights will often be on the E145.

windian425 wrote:

https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/09/15/u-s-embassy-bridgetown-resumes-processing-of-routine-in-person-appointments-in-all-nonimmigrant-visa-categories/
Does this mean that regional travel for US visas will also resume? If so, we currently don't have enough airlift to facilitate a return to business as usual. Or will additional airlift improve to meet any such demand?

Most applicants are new eligible for an interview waiver, meaning once its a simple renewal, all one have to do is send their passport. Only new applicants and some categories of visa holders have to go in person. This will drastically reduce the numbers of persons now having to travel to BGI.

dominicl316 wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

Sky high flying to Tortola with E190. Appears to be sheduled flights.

https://www.facebook.com/12479555585705 ... pLcyZPUil/

I wonder when their STT services will be starting

They won’t be there long anyway. B6 will dump some capacity on the short hops and run them off.

303dk wrote:

dominicl316 wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

Sky high flying to Tortola with E190. Appears to be sheduled flights.

https://www.facebook.com/12479555585705 ... pLcyZPUil/

I wonder when their STT services will be starting

They won’t be there long anyway. B6 will dump some capacity on the short hops and run them off.

B6 requires a connection in SJU, though

303dk wrote:

dominicl316 wrote:

embraer175e2 wrote:

Sky high flying to Tortola with E190. Appears to be sheduled flights.

https://www.facebook.com/12479555585705 ... pLcyZPUil/

I wonder when their STT services will be starting

They won’t be there long anyway. B6 will dump some capacity on the short hops and run them off.

Not sure who you're referring to, but I don't see B6 running SJU-EIS. SkyHigh's ops are out of SDQ and as dominicl316 said, B6 will route you through SJU.

LimaFoxTango wrote:

303dk wrote:

dominicl316 wrote:

I wonder when their STT services will be starting

They won’t be there long anyway. B6 will dump some capacity on the short hops and run them off.

Not sure who you're referring to, but I don't see B6 running SJU-EIS. SkyHigh's ops are out of SDQ and as dominicl316 said, B6 will route you through SJU.

Referring to STT-SDQ/PUJ. B6 is protective of that market and the short flights to/from SJU make it easy to dumb extra capacity.

Does anyone know what became of the World2fly flights to BGI? Weren't they supposed to run this past summer season?

baje427 wrote:

Does anyone know what became of the World2fly flights to BGI? Weren't they supposed to run this past summer season?

Doesn’t look like they materialize.

caribbean484 wrote:

I still think it's not enough as BGI should be seeing daily 737 at this point. Prior to the pandemic BW had daily BGI-KIN through POS and 2w non-stop BGI-KIN.
I truly see the need for them to add more flights to ANU, BGI, GND, SLU, CUR.

Pre pandemic BW ran a daily BGI KIN via POS. Not only did this sometimes result in aircraft changes but it also entailed additional stops, except on the days when BW ran nonstop POS KIN. Apparently passengers on this route complained at so BW introduced a 2x KIN BGI KIN.

Now BW runs Tu, Th 1 stop flights to KIN from BGI. I do not see what is stopping them adding BGI on the 1x POS SXM KIN and the1x POS ANU KIN routes. This will bring back almost daily BGI KIN and without the POS detour. Of course the absence of LI has probably boosted POS to ANU/SXM traffic on BW. This might be why BW might need to add some ATR service POS ANU SXM, and then do a hand off to WM/LI for those continuing on to the VI and SKB. I maintain that with all the challenges that BW currently faces I just do not see the milk run service for the near future.

Brickell305 wrote:

caribbean484 wrote:

baje427 wrote:

Apparently they are having some teething issues with the Max8.

Sorry for the late reply, BW is having parts issues with the MAX. That's why 9Y-SUR is still grounded, as they were using parts from that a/c to the others. This is not unique to BW as all airlines are facing the same issue, which is why we were seeing cancellations and delays. If its not crew issues its parts issues. This brings me to this:

aa1818 wrote:

To be fair, BW was grounded, POS and TAB were closed.
The airline is ramping back up and given the meltdowns of the world's major alliances, I'd say kudos to BW for constrained, measured return to normal operations/ growth. I expect this restraint to continue for the next six months.

Up to recently, BA just reshuffled October flights cancelling one of my European flights causing a slew of painful changes to a trip booked only a couple weeks before.

lilac1 I think you need to consider the conditions under which BW continued to exist from March 2020 to July 2021 and the very restrictive conditions they operated under up to just a few months ago.

Cheers,
AA1818

The reason ramp up is slow is because the airline is playing it safe for the time being as they are having fleet issues at the moment. This is why you are seeing them ramping up a bit from November, however I still think it's not enough as BGI should be seeing daily 737 at this point. Prior to the pandemic BW had daily BGI-KIN through POS and 2w non-stop BGI-KIN.
I truly see the need for them to add more flights to ANU, BGI, GND, SLU, CUR.

I also suspect demand is still weak. It’s not just BW. AA is down to one flight daily out of MIA in January/February even up to the week before carnival. B6 as we know has canceled FLL-POS and is still only at 1x daily out of JFK even through carnival. If it were just BW, I’d say this is specific to them but multiple airlines serving POS are retrenching.

As I said before there is something unique about VFR travel to POS. This has recovered into KIN and GEO which have similar travel profiles as does POS. Visa issues impact KIN and GEO as much as it would POS so processing delays arent unique. What I might say is that maybe outbound travel is more significant out of POS, so processing delays might impact more, though the "regulars" can have their visa renewals done online.

windian425 wrote:

https://barbadostoday.bb/2022/09/15/u-s-embassy-bridgetown-resumes-processing-of-routine-in-person-appointments-in-all-nonimmigrant-visa-categories/
Does this mean that regional travel for US visas will also resume? If so, we currently don't have enough airlift to facilitate a return to business as usual. Or will additional airlift improve to meet any such demand?

Its not going to allow pre pandemic passport travel as the "regulars" can renew online. Only those who havent been interviewed before, or not within 4 years will need interviews. They were actually moving to this pre pandemic. Based on the high % of passengers staying less than 3 days from GND, ANU and SKB, and to a lesser degree DOM, these routes will not require pre pandemic levels of service. However SVD and SLU are most likely underserved with post pandemic recovery as JY hasnt increased airlift.

caribny wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

caribbean484 wrote:

Sorry for the late reply, BW is having parts issues with the MAX. That's why 9Y-SUR is still grounded, as they were using parts from that a/c to the others. This is not unique to BW as all airlines are facing the same issue, which is why we were seeing cancellations and delays. If its not crew issues its parts issues. This brings me to this:



The reason ramp up is slow is because the airline is playing it safe for the time being as they are having fleet issues at the moment. This is why you are seeing them ramping up a bit from November, however I still think it's not enough as BGI should be seeing daily 737 at this point. Prior to the pandemic BW had daily BGI-KIN through POS and 2w non-stop BGI-KIN.
I truly see the need for them to add more flights to ANU, BGI, GND, SLU, CUR.

I also suspect demand is still weak. It’s not just BW. AA is down to one flight daily out of MIA in January/February even up to the week before carnival. B6 as we know has canceled FLL-POS and is still only at 1x daily out of JFK even through carnival. If it were just BW, I’d say this is specific to them but multiple airlines serving POS are retrenching.

As I said before there is something unique about VFR travel to POS. This has recovered into KIN and GEO which have similar travel profiles as does POS. Visa issues impact KIN and GEO as much as it would POS so processing delays arent unique. What I might say is that maybe outbound travel is more significant out of POS, so processing delays might impact more, though the "regulars" can have their visa renewals done online.

I don’t think there’s anything unique happening with the POS VFR market. Let’s look at GEO and POS as those are probably the two most comparable markets. The Guyanese immigrant population in NYC is larger than the Trinidadian immigrant population in NYC and has been for quite some time. Despite this, POS has always garnered more air service from NYC than GEO ever has. And that’s not just because of BW. Pre-pandemic, B6 was 2x daily and UA was daily out of EWR. Historically, GEO had less BW service and a 1x daily by a scheduled US carrier (DL, AA, etc) and/or a charter (Eastern, Dynamic, etc.). Was something unique with the Guyanese VFR market when it was getting less service than the POS market out of NYC despite having a larger diaspora?

What I think actually is the case is that POS generated significantly more bi-directional demand. For as many US based Trinis you had “returning home”, you had just as many visiting NYC and other points abroad. Also, POS generated more business (yes, even from NYC) and leisure travel. What’s happening now is with a reduced business travel environment and reduced outbound travel from POS due to both visa issues and foreign exchange issues, we’re seeing what the market looks like when the only significant driver is inbound VFR. Put another way, POS punched above its weight in travel demand pre-pandemic when you look at the actual size of its diaspora in the US especially due to having strong business demand and outbound travel. With those two contributors now handicapped, service levels have been reduced to match what’s there and this is the result. GEO’s service levels have returned to normal because historically all they’ve really depended on was inbound VFR and that has returned.

Brickell305 wrote:

caribny wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

Pre-pandemic, B6 was 2x daily and UA was daily out of EWR. .

I...don't think this is accurate. I don't recall B6 being 2x daily from NYC year round and I'm more confident UA wasn't daily year round from EWR either.

Maybe in the peak periods but as far as I recall B6 was 1x from JFK and 1x from FLL and UA was 1x from IAH and would add EWR during peak periods.

Brickell305 wrote:

caribny wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

I also suspect demand is still weak. It’s not just BW. AA is down to one flight daily out of MIA in January/February even up to the week before carnival. B6 as we know has canceled FLL-POS and is still only at 1x daily out of JFK even through carnival. If it were just BW, I’d say this is specific to them but multiple airlines serving POS are retrenching.

As I said before there is something unique about VFR travel to POS. This has recovered into KIN and GEO which have similar travel profiles as does POS. Visa issues impact KIN and GEO as much as it would POS so processing delays arent unique. What I might say is that maybe outbound travel is more significant out of POS, so processing delays might impact more, though the "regulars" can have their visa renewals done online.

I don’t think there’s anything unique happening with the POS VFR market. Let’s look at GEO and POS as those are probably the two most comparable markets. The Guyanese immigrant population in NYC is larger than the Trinidadian immigrant population in NYC and has been for quite some time. Despite this, POS has always garnered more air service from NYC than GEO ever has. And that’s not just because of BW. Pre-pandemic, B6 was 2x daily and UA was daily out of EWR. Historically, GEO had less BW service and a 1x daily by a scheduled US carrier (DL, AA, etc) and/or a charter (Eastern, Dynamic, etc.). Was something unique with the Guyanese VFR market when it was getting less service than the POS market out of NYC despite having a larger diaspora?

What I think actually is the case is that POS generated significantly more bi-directional demand. For as many US based Trinis you had “returning home”, you had just as many visiting NYC and other points abroad. Also, POS generated more business (yes, even from NYC) and leisure travel. What’s happening now is with a reduced business travel environment and reduced outbound travel from POS due to both visa issues and foreign exchange issues, we’re seeing what the market looks like when the only significant driver is inbound VFR. Put another way, POS punched above its weight in travel demand pre-pandemic when you look at the actual size of its diaspora in the US especially due to having strong business demand and outbound travel. With those two contributors now handicapped, service levels have been reduced to match what’s there and this is the result. GEO’s service levels have returned to normal because historically all they’ve really depended on was inbound VFR and that has returned.

Your point about more northbound out of POS is taken and I made mention of that as being part of the reason for lower levels of demand. However, unlike maybe the SoFL routes, more of the travel out of JFK is southbound. In recent years SoFL POS seats were way more than JFK POS, and in fact UA all but exited EWR POS, except at peak periods. I bet that this is because a high % of outbound travel had switched away from the NY area. B6 FLL POS had already become wobbly pre pandemic because the yields were very low as the market couldnt sustain both BW and B6 running daily flights.

I am of the opinion that much of the TT NY area VFR consists of people who arrived prior to 1980, whereas the Guyanese VFR includes more people who arrived between that period and 2000. This means that the pool of the TT VFR who live in the NY and have close ties to TT has dwindled. Parents die, kids grow up so no longer need as many trips home by their mothers. Friendship patterns switch. This might explain the decline as that 3 year shut down might have weakened ties even further for the TT NY area diaspora. And now the high fares that are being charged, given that both B6 and BW have post pandemic limitations so cannot offer pre pandemic service levels. This also impacts northbound VFR travel into the NY area. I can definitely see POS SoFL being adversely impacted as its even more outbound/business oriented.

Now that GEO has a longer runway it is more attractive to the US scheduled carriers, who are aware that Guyanese VFR seem prepared to pay high airfares that they had to when BW had a de facto monopoly. I suspect that what we are now seeing post pandemic era trends that had begun to emerge pre pandemic, except that airlines can no longer afford to service those mid range flights that are at the extreme edge, such as POS, when compared to closer destinations like KIN.

maverick4002 wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

caribny wrote:

I...don't think this is accurate. I don't recall B6 being 2x daily from NYC year round and I'm more confident UA wasn't daily year round from EWR either.

Maybe in the peak periods but as far as I recall B6 was 1x from JFK and 1x from FLL and UA was 1x from IAH and would add EWR during peak periods.

You are correct. B6 ran 2x daily during the summer, and maybe Xmas season and Carnival. There was a point when B6 was as hot to drive out BW as they were with AA in other Caribbean markets, but BW was able to fight back.

Brickell305 wrote:

caribny wrote:

Brickell305 wrote:

I also suspect demand is still weak. It’s not just BW. AA is down to one flight daily out of MIA in January/February even up to the week before carnival. B6 as we know has canceled FLL-POS and is still only at 1x daily out of JFK even through carnival. If it were just BW, I’d say this is specific to them but multiple airlines serving POS are retrenching.

As I said before there is something unique about VFR travel to POS. This has recovered into KIN and GEO which have similar travel profiles as does POS. Visa issues impact KIN and GEO as much as it would POS so processing delays arent unique. What I might say is that maybe outbound travel is more significant out of POS, so processing delays might impact more, though the "regulars" can have their visa renewals done online.

I don’t think there’s anything unique happening with the POS VFR market. Let’s look at GEO and POS as those are probably the two most comparable markets. The Guyanese immigrant population in NYC is larger than the Trinidadian immigrant population in NYC and has been for quite some time. Despite this, POS has always garnered more air service from NYC than GEO ever has. And that’s not just because of BW. Pre-pandemic, B6 was 2x daily and UA was daily out of EWR. Historically, GEO had less BW service and a 1x daily by a scheduled US carrier (DL, AA, etc) and/or a charter (Eastern, Dynamic, etc.). Was something unique with the Guyanese VFR market when it was getting less service than the POS market out of NYC despite having a larger diaspora?

What I think actually is the case is that POS generated significantly more bi-directional demand. For as many US based Trinis you had “returning home”, you had just as many visiting NYC and other points abroad. Also, POS generated more business (yes, even from NYC) and leisure travel. What’s happening now is with a reduced business travel environment and reduced outbound travel from POS due to both visa issues and foreign exchange issues, we’re seeing what the market looks like when the only significant driver is inbound VFR. Put another way, POS punched above its weight in travel demand pre-pandemic when you look at the actual size of its diaspora in the US especially due to having strong business demand and outbound travel. With those two contributors now handicapped, service levels have been reduced to match what’s there and this is the result. GEO’s service levels have returned to normal because historically all they’ve really depended on was inbound VFR and that has returned.

GEO also has the additional oil traffic these days.