Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
washingtonflyer wrote:Any news on the planned Centurion lounge at DCA as well as the Admiral's club in the new north pier? I heard a rumor that the small B/C Admirals club will close for a while.
USAirALB wrote:Frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see AA close one of their ACs permanently, especially given that they are constructing a new one on the new regional concourse. While I don't doubt DCA has great levels of premium traffic, I question the need for each AA concourse to have its own individual club...CLT doesn't even have three ACs.
I could see the one serving Concourse C (Gates 23-34) closing for good.
kbmiflyer wrote:Anything new on the silver line extension to IAD opening? Last I heard February 2022 was the planned opening, but with the 7000 series trains still having issues getting back into service, I am not confident.
kbmiflyer wrote:USAirALB wrote:Frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see AA close one of their ACs permanently, especially given that they are constructing a new one on the new regional concourse. While I don't doubt DCA has great levels of premium traffic, I question the need for each AA concourse to have its own individual club...CLT doesn't even have three ACs.
I could see the one serving Concourse C (Gates 23-34) closing for good.
Don't disagree with this. The reason to have one on each pier before was due to security. Once all the gates are accessible behind security I can see DCA going down to 2.
kbmiflyer wrote:Anything new on the silver line extension to IAD opening? Last I heard February 2022 was the planned opening, but with the 7000 series trains still having issues getting back into service, I am not confident.
N292UX wrote:Rough day for DCA today. Lots of flights with 2+ hour delays due to congestion and weather. Our YX flight to IND was delayed by about 2 hours and were lucky to get out when we did.
N292UX wrote:-Air Senegal does not make it at BWI and either cuts the tag all together or moves it to IAD
atcsundevil wrote:N292UX wrote:-Air Senegal does not make it at BWI and either cuts the tag all together or moves it to IAD
Out of everything you've written, this one is an absolute guarantee. This is one of the more head-scratching things I've seen in a while. Never mind flying from BWI, I don't think they fully understand getting flow timed literally into oblivion trying to get to JFK running a tag like this. Pure silliness that can only cost them serious cash.
BWIAirport wrote:Your comment about timing was interesting. I don't know if this flight has been less than an hour delayed on any of its legs yet since the route started in September.
BWIAirport wrote:atcsundevil wrote:N292UX wrote:-Air Senegal does not make it at BWI and either cuts the tag all together or moves it to IAD
Out of everything you've written, this one is an absolute guarantee. This is one of the more head-scratching things I've seen in a while. Never mind flying from BWI, I don't think they fully understand getting flow timed literally into oblivion trying to get to JFK running a tag like this. Pure silliness that can only cost them serious cash.
Yeah as much as I love BWI I was shocked this was moved in the first place (keep in mind the initial announcement was DSS-JFK-IAD). That being said, it was only supposed to be a couple months in September and October, but it's still going and they added a weekly frequency for the winter.
Your comment about timing was interesting. I don't know if this flight has been less than an hour delayed on any of its legs yet since the route started in September.
iadbudd wrote:BWIAirport wrote:atcsundevil wrote:Out of everything you've written, this one is an absolute guarantee. This is one of the more head-scratching things I've seen in a while. Never mind flying from BWI, I don't think they fully understand getting flow timed literally into oblivion trying to get to JFK running a tag like this. Pure silliness that can only cost them serious cash.
Yeah as much as I love BWI I was shocked this was moved in the first place (keep in mind the initial announcement was DSS-JFK-IAD). That being said, it was only supposed to be a couple months in September and October, but it's still going and they added a weekly frequency for the winter.
Your comment about timing was interesting. I don't know if this flight has been less than an hour delayed on any of its legs yet since the route started in September.
The reason why they switched from IAD to BWI was because they could not get a ground handling contractor to handle them at IAD. The two widebody airline ground handlers (Dynata and Swissport) were and still are dealing with staffing shortages effecting their current customers and were in no position to accept new contracts.
N292UX wrote:-Air Senegal does not make it at BWI and either cuts the tag all together or moves it to IAD
N292UX wrote:Forgot to add my predictions last week so I may as well post them now for IAD/BWI/DCA...
-IB formally launches IAD for 2023
ItnStln wrote:N292UX wrote:-Air Senegal does not make it at BWI and either cuts the tag all together or moves it to IAD
Is this flight still around? I am at BWI often and haven't seen Air Senegal since November.
BWIAirport wrote:ItnStln wrote:N292UX wrote:-Air Senegal does not make it at BWI and either cuts the tag all together or moves it to IAD
Is this flight still around? I am at BWI often and haven't seen Air Senegal since November.
It's there Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday from around 11:30 to around 21:00. It parks often at E3/E5, so unless you're explicitly looking for it you won't see it. Always 9H-SZN.
lawair wrote:BWIAirport wrote:ItnStln wrote:Is this flight still around? I am at BWI often and haven't seen Air Senegal since November.
It's there Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday from around 11:30 to around 21:00. It parks often at E3/E5, so unless you're explicitly looking for it you won't see it. Always 9H-SZN.
The numbers so far seem anemic, like 30-some passengers per flight. At least Ghana Airways carried 150-200 or so passengers per BWI flight a couple decades ago, and the flight was even nonstop to Africa for a period.
BWIAirport wrote:lawair wrote:BWIAirport wrote:It's there Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday from around 11:30 to around 21:00. It parks often at E3/E5, so unless you're explicitly looking for it you won't see it. Always 9H-SZN.
The numbers so far seem anemic, like 30-some passengers per flight. At least Ghana Airways carried 150-200 or so passengers per BWI flight a couple decades ago, and the flight was even nonstop to Africa for a period.
Wow, that's about as bad as I expected. How many pax per flight would be added with a move to IAD, like 10?
Not that it plays a huge role, but the flight is not advertised well at all in Baltimore (whereas it seemed everyone know about WOW Air). Regardless, I can't imagine 100 people per week need to get from Baltimore to Dakar, or to any of their onward connections. Surely this flight is sponsored heavily by the Senegalese government.
Tickets are also quite fairly-priced ($670 leaving this Sunday, compared to well over $1,000 on other airlines through Google Flights).
BWIAirport wrote:ItnStln wrote:N292UX wrote:-Air Senegal does not make it at BWI and either cuts the tag all together or moves it to IAD
Is this flight still around? I am at BWI often and haven't seen Air Senegal since November.
It's there Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday from around 11:30 to around 21:00. It parks often at E3/E5, so unless you're explicitly looking for it you won't see it. Always 9H-SZN.
N292UX wrote:Forgot to add my predictions last week so I may as well post them now for IAD/BWI/DCA...
-BA resumes BWI (was recently suspended again)
N292UX wrote:Forgot to add my predictions last week so I may as well post them now for IAD/BWI/DCA...
-NK announces IAD, with service to places like MCO/FLL/TPA being likely
-UA adds mainline service on some domestic routes. Places like SAV, PBI, and PNS could potentially see some A319 service at some point
-Excluding the presumed IB service, another international route at IAD is announced for 2023. Could potentially be SK to ARN, LY to TLV, LO to WAW, or UA to somewhere like MXP/LIM/MAN
USAirALB wrote:1) Frankly I can't see what NK would gain from adding NK. LCCs really tend to not perform well at Dulles. WN has shrunk considerably from their initial footprint (7x MDW, 1x LAS, 2x TPA, 2x MCO...they also added SAN at one point IIRC). F9 had a mini-focus city a couple of years back that was abandoned pretty quickly. I have my doubts that G4 will be able to succeed, although its obvious that MWAA gave them some sort of marketing package...there are G4 advertisements all over the Metro.
jplatts wrote:USAirALB wrote:1) Frankly I can't see what NK would gain from adding NK. LCCs really tend to not perform well at Dulles. WN has shrunk considerably from their initial footprint (7x MDW, 1x LAS, 2x TPA, 2x MCO...they also added SAN at one point IIRC). F9 had a mini-focus city a couple of years back that was abandoned pretty quickly. I have my doubts that G4 will be able to succeed, although its obvious that MWAA gave them some sort of marketing package...there are G4 advertisements all over the Metro.
IAD can likely support WN nonstop service to PHX with
(a) PHX being outside of the DCA perimeter,
(b) the significant FF bases that WN has in Greater Phoenix, the DC metro area, and Southern California to support IAD-PHX nonstop service on WN,
(c) the connecting opportunities that would be there to Vegas and Southern California through PHX on WN,
(d) UA currently being the only airline serving PHX nonstop from IAD, and
(e) AA currently being the only airline serving PHX nonstop from DCA.
IADCA wrote:jplatts wrote:USAirALB wrote:1) Frankly I can't see what NK would gain from adding NK. LCCs really tend to not perform well at Dulles. WN has shrunk considerably from their initial footprint (7x MDW, 1x LAS, 2x TPA, 2x MCO...they also added SAN at one point IIRC). F9 had a mini-focus city a couple of years back that was abandoned pretty quickly. I have my doubts that G4 will be able to succeed, although its obvious that MWAA gave them some sort of marketing package...there are G4 advertisements all over the Metro.
IAD can likely support WN nonstop service to PHX with
(a) PHX being outside of the DCA perimeter,
(b) the significant FF bases that WN has in Greater Phoenix, the DC metro area, and Southern California to support IAD-PHX nonstop service on WN,
(c) the connecting opportunities that would be there to Vegas and Southern California through PHX on WN,
(d) UA currently being the only airline serving PHX nonstop from IAD, and
(e) AA currently being the only airline serving PHX nonstop from DCA.
You're proposing a ~2000 mile route that competes with nearly 1,000 existing nonstop seats daily (and no barrier to adding many more) and offers connection possibilities only to places that are already well-served with equal efficiency with flights via MDW, all from WN's (by far) weakest airport in the region. There's a reason this doesn't exist. Or, put otherwise:
(a) Yes, but it does have flights, per (e), and it's 3x daily on A321s. That does a lot to lock up a lot of the AA FF base that might otherwise be in play for a WN flight at IAD.
(b) Why do Southern California connections matter? IAD-MDW-LAX, for example, is literally 1 mile different in distance than over PHX. There's not really an efficiency there for WN. You're left with "FF bases in DC area to PHX" which sorta suggests an answer that isn't WN. And WN's FF base in DC is likely heavily weighted towards BWI and weakest around IAD.
(c) Again, getting to LAS from IAD via MDW is actually shorter than via PHX.
(d) Yes, already twice daily with ~340 seats each way and no restrictions preventing them from immediately adding a lot more.
(e) Yeah, and it's 3 times daily on A321s - that's already almost 600 seats each way every day, including premium offerings that will soak up a lot of the most profitable customers.
USAirALB wrote:IADCA wrote:WN also currently serves IAD-DEN at a twice daily frequency that literally offers all of the same connection opportunities present at PHX, sans for Hawaii. Starting IAD-PHX does nothing for WN except tie up a plane for the better half of a day on a route that would likely lose money.
There's a reason UA is the only carrier on IAD-PHX, and there's a reason that UA only flies it once daily. US dropped IAD-PHX years ago (before the AA merger IIRC), and just recently dropped BWI-PHX. Between AA's thrice daily flights, UA's daily flight, and WN's twice daily flights, I would say PHX-WAS is pretty well served.
jplatts wrote:USAirALB wrote:IADCA wrote:WN also currently serves IAD-DEN at a twice daily frequency that literally offers all of the same connection opportunities present at PHX, sans for Hawaii. Starting IAD-PHX does nothing for WN except tie up a plane for the better half of a day on a route that would likely lose money.
There's a reason UA is the only carrier on IAD-PHX, and there's a reason that UA only flies it once daily. US dropped IAD-PHX years ago (before the AA merger IIRC), and just recently dropped BWI-PHX. Between AA's thrice daily flights, UA's daily flight, and WN's twice daily flights, I would say PHX-WAS is pretty well served.
WN actually carried more of the PHX-WAS O&D than AA or UA in Q3 2021, with WN carrying an average of 256 O&D passengers/day in each direction between WAS and PHX in Q3 2021.
IADCA wrote:Does that include BWI? Because you can basically throw BWI numbers out the window when discussing domestic routes from IAD.
USAirALB wrote:4) ITA was supposed to start IAD-FCO Spring/Summer 2022 but removed all references to IAD on their website last Fall. If LH does end up taking over ITA, I could see them start IAD-FCO.
jplatts wrote:IADCA wrote:Does that include BWI? Because you can basically throw BWI numbers out the window when discussing domestic routes from IAD.
The number that I mentioned above includes both O&D passengers traveling on WN BWI-PHX nonstop flights and passengers connecting to PHX from DCA/IAD on WN (but excludes passengers connecting onto WN BWI-PHX nonstop flights from other cities).
There was an average of 31 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and DCA on WN in Q3 2021, but PHX is outside of the DCA perimeter.
There was also an average of 36 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and DCA on airlines other than AA or WN in Q3 2021, but UA or DL would probably never serve PHX nonstop from DCA (even if extra beyond-perimeter slot exemptions are added at DCA).
There was an average of 12 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and IAD on WN in Q3 2021. There was also only an average of 18 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and IAD on airlines other than UA or WN in Q3 2021.
tax1k wrote:Is there an anticipated return for AC to BWI?
USAirALB wrote:1) Frankly I can't see what NK would gain from adding NK. LCCs really tend to not perform well at Dulles. WN has shrunk considerably from their initial footprint (7x MDW, 1x LAS, 2x TPA, 2x MCO...they also added SAN at one point IIRC). F9 had a mini-focus city a couple of years back that was abandoned pretty quickly. I have my doubts that G4 will be able to succeed, although its obvious that MWAA gave them some sort of marketing package...there are G4 advertisements all over the Metro.
IADCA wrote:jplatts wrote:IADCA wrote:Does that include BWI? Because you can basically throw BWI numbers out the window when discussing domestic routes from IAD.
The number that I mentioned above includes both O&D passengers traveling on WN BWI-PHX nonstop flights and passengers connecting to PHX from DCA/IAD on WN (but excludes passengers connecting onto WN BWI-PHX nonstop flights from other cities).
There was an average of 31 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and DCA on WN in Q3 2021, but PHX is outside of the DCA perimeter.
There was also an average of 36 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and DCA on airlines other than AA or WN in Q3 2021, but UA or DL would probably never serve PHX nonstop from DCA (even if extra beyond-perimeter slot exemptions are added at DCA).
There was an average of 12 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and IAD on WN in Q3 2021. There was also only an average of 18 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and IAD on airlines other than UA or WN in Q3 2021.
Right, I know what O&D means, but the point is that when you're including WN's own nonstop numbers from BWI while pushing for an IAD flight, you're either (a) making a pitch that they should cannibalize their own existing BWI flights by adding IAD or (b) admitting that IAD and BWI don't serve the same customers. It doesn't surprise me that WN carries more passengers than the other carriers on WAS-PHX. It doesn't surprise me because they do BWI-PHX, which are huge stations for them on both ends, and that flight serves Maryland plus most of the residential sections of DC itself well.
But that does very little to illuminate whether they have a viable case for IAD-PHX. It's throwing a number out there without any actual application to the reality. Virtually nobody who is flying from BWI is also considering flying from Dulles on a domestic flight.
Your last sets of numbers are the important ones. You've basically said that there are 18 passengers a day connecting on other carriers that WN might attract to its own nonstop, plus 36 such people at DCA (many of whom would probably rather go to BWI than IAD). Everything else would be WN cannibalizing itself or competing with extant nonstop offerings. That's not much justification for a 2,000 mile flight.
atcsundevil wrote:USAirALB wrote:1) Frankly I can't see what NK would gain from adding NK. LCCs really tend to not perform well at Dulles. WN has shrunk considerably from their initial footprint (7x MDW, 1x LAS, 2x TPA, 2x MCO...they also added SAN at one point IIRC). F9 had a mini-focus city a couple of years back that was abandoned pretty quickly. I have my doubts that G4 will be able to succeed, although its obvious that MWAA gave them some sort of marketing package...there are G4 advertisements all over the Metro.
Don't forget JetBlue and the mini hub they had here about 15 years ago. I'm still a little bitter about losing them. I'm pretty sure Allegiant actually requires cities they serve to offer marketing packages along with other incentives. They have a tendency to drop markets at the conclusion of incentives with little notice. I completely agree on NK — there's nothing to be gained from Spirit coming to IAD. PFCs are probably still too high for their liking. The NOVA area is obviously largely well off, so there just isn't much appeal for LCCs when the bougie folks around here can fly full service carriers. Given that fact, they certainly would not be willing to go for G̶r̶e̶y̶h̶o̶u̶n̶d̶ Spirit. Allegiant might stand a chance since Florida is a destination people tend to try to do cheaply, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pick up and leave in two years.
USAirALB wrote:Now that I think about it, I do wonder if MWAA offers some type of Metro advertising deal to all new carriers Dulles. I recall CX/AZ/TP/VR advertising pretty heavily on the train and in the stations during their first couple of months of service into IAD. I also saw a ton of LX advertisements during February/March 2020 for their service resumption that never occurred.
I often forget that B6 was once quite large at IAD. While I don't see them ever returning to IAD with the same network they once had, I wouldn't be surprised to see them launch IAD-SFO/LAX maybe at one or two daily flights each with a Mint A321 given how much they are trying to grow in both SFO and LAX.
atcsundevil wrote:I keep hoping JetBlue will come back someday. I think they were left with a pretty sour taste in their mouth, but it has to be at least 10 years since they withdrew. I wouldn't even care so much about transcons (where they'd probably struggle to compete anyway) as I would a little connectivity with their network. They presumably don't want to waste JFK slots though, and service on Florida routes probably isn't profitable enough to be worth their effort. If all they'd realistically add is BOS, that wouldn't give them enough market presence to matter. I would love for them to jump back in and give it another go, but unfortunately I won't be holding my breath. I'm a big fan of JetBlue, but honestly not enough to schlep all the way in to DCA.
atcsundevil wrote:Southwest is virtually irrelevant at IAD, and I have zero expectation that will ever change. Baltimore is their primary focus, National gets their secondary attention, and Dulles gets a handful of flights a day because they're not sure what else to do with it. They serve ATL for connections, and they serve MDW and DEN to keep UA in check, but there's no logical reason to serve PHX. Even pre covid, there was typically only one daily IAD-PHX frequency on UA with a second frequency added seasonally, so it's not like there's tons of demand that isn't already being adequately filled with their BWI ops. The fact that they're ending Orlando — one of the biggest markets from IAD — should be pretty telling. They aren't relevant here, and they're frankly not trying to be relevant. If they can't make MCO work, then forget about PHX or any other expensive transcon route.
USAirALB wrote:The focus-city closed around 10 years ago, but B6 only left IAD in 2019. At that point they were down to only a couple BOS flights per day.
IADCA wrote:Yeah, I don't think he gets that they - like B6 - consciously chose DCA over IAD when they could get enough slots and drew down their IAD ops. This makes sense, especially for WN. IAD exists primarily to serve exactly the type of traffic WN in which WN is relatively weaker - long domestic routes and international. DCA is exactly the opposite.
There's obviously enough population and money out near IAD to make it worth serving, but like you said, if MCO isn't going to work there, zero chance of PHX.
IADCA wrote:atcsundevil wrote:Southwest is virtually irrelevant at IAD, and I have zero expectation that will ever change. Baltimore is their primary focus, National gets their secondary attention, and Dulles gets a handful of flights a day because they're not sure what else to do with it. They serve ATL for connections, and they serve MDW and DEN to keep UA in check, but there's no logical reason to serve PHX. Even pre covid, there was typically only one daily IAD-PHX frequency on UA with a second frequency added seasonally, so it's not like there's tons of demand that isn't already being adequately filled with their BWI ops. The fact that they're ending Orlando — one of the biggest markets from IAD — should be pretty telling. They aren't relevant here, and they're frankly not trying to be relevant. If they can't make MCO work, then forget about PHX or any other expensive transcon route.
Yeah, I don't think he gets that they - like B6 - consciously chose DCA over IAD when they could get enough slots and drew down their IAD ops. This makes sense, especially for WN. IAD exists primarily to serve exactly the type of traffic WN in which WN is relatively weaker - long domestic routes and international. DCA is exactly the opposite.
There's obviously enough population and money out near IAD to make it worth serving, but like you said, if MCO isn't going to work there, zero chance of PHX.
USAirALB wrote:[
WN has always been significantly larger at DCA and I believe DCA is their largest station in the East by destination count outside of Florida and BWI.
At the height of their Dulles ops, B6 was larger IAD than they ever were at DCA. For several years in the early 2000s it looked like IAD was going to be B6's secondary East Coast operating base (not BOS). I think at their height, they did IAD-SMF/LGB/OAK/FLL/SAN/CUN/RSW/JFK/BOS/SJU/PBI/SAN. I don't think all routes were flown concurrently, however, and I seem to recall LAS also being done at one point. I think their DCA ops peaked in the 2017-2018 when they did DCA-BOS/CHS/FLL/RSW/BDL/JAX/NAS/MCO/SJU/TPA/PBI and seasonal ACK...I think they are now down to just BOS/FLL/RSW/NAS/MCO/SJU/PBI, and seasonal MVY/ACK.
WN could easily replicate any route network they had at IAD at DCA. B6 could not, and I struggle to understand how WAS fits into B6's route network.
IADCA wrote:USAirALB wrote:[
WN has always been significantly larger at DCA and I believe DCA is their largest station in the East by destination count outside of Florida and BWI.
At the height of their Dulles ops, B6 was larger IAD than they ever were at DCA. For several years in the early 2000s it looked like IAD was going to be B6's secondary East Coast operating base (not BOS). I think at their height, they did IAD-SMF/LGB/OAK/FLL/SAN/CUN/RSW/JFK/BOS/SJU/PBI/SAN. I don't think all routes were flown concurrently, however, and I seem to recall LAS also being done at one point. I think their DCA ops peaked in the 2017-2018 when they did DCA-BOS/CHS/FLL/RSW/BDL/JAX/NAS/MCO/SJU/TPA/PBI and seasonal ACK...I think they are now down to just BOS/FLL/RSW/NAS/MCO/SJU/PBI, and seasonal MVY/ACK.
WN could easily replicate any route network they had at IAD at DCA. B6 could not, and I struggle to understand how WAS fits into B6's route network.
Wait, wait, wait. WN was at IAD before they ever had any flights at DCA (by 6 years), as was B6, because neither of them had DCA slots. Neither of them was at Dulles by choice initially.
Both of them - as soon as they got enough slots - shoved much of their IAD operation over to DCA almost immediately. They both grew massively at DCA when getting slots from the AA-US divestiture. WN didn't serve DCA at all prior to summer 2012 because they had zero slots. B6 only started service there in 2010, with 9 daily slot pairs.
IADCA wrote:USAirALB wrote:[
WN has always been significantly larger at DCA and I believe DCA is their largest station in the East by destination count outside of Florida and BWI.
At the height of their Dulles ops, B6 was larger IAD than they ever were at DCA. For several years in the early 2000s it looked like IAD was going to be B6's secondary East Coast operating base (not BOS). I think at their height, they did IAD-SMF/LGB/OAK/FLL/SAN/CUN/RSW/JFK/BOS/SJU/PBI/SAN. I don't think all routes were flown concurrently, however, and I seem to recall LAS also being done at one point. I think their DCA ops peaked in the 2017-2018 when they did DCA-BOS/CHS/FLL/RSW/BDL/JAX/NAS/MCO/SJU/TPA/PBI and seasonal ACK...I think they are now down to just BOS/FLL/RSW/NAS/MCO/SJU/PBI, and seasonal MVY/ACK.
WN could easily replicate any route network they had at IAD at DCA. B6 could not, and I struggle to understand how WAS fits into B6's route network.
Wait, wait, wait. WN was at IAD before they ever had any flights at DCA (by 6 years), as was B6, because neither of them had DCA slots. Neither of them was at Dulles by choice initially.
Both of them - as soon as they got enough slots - shoved much of their IAD operation over to DCA almost immediately. They both grew massively at DCA when getting slots from the AA-US divestiture. WN didn't serve DCA at all prior to summer 2012 because they had zero slots. B6 only started service there in 2010, with 9 daily slot pairs.
USAirALB wrote:IADCA wrote:USAirALB wrote:[
WN has always been significantly larger at DCA and I believe DCA is their largest station in the East by destination count outside of Florida and BWI.
At the height of their Dulles ops, B6 was larger IAD than they ever were at DCA. For several years in the early 2000s it looked like IAD was going to be B6's secondary East Coast operating base (not BOS). I think at their height, they did IAD-SMF/LGB/OAK/FLL/SAN/CUN/RSW/JFK/BOS/SJU/PBI/SAN. I don't think all routes were flown concurrently, however, and I seem to recall LAS also being done at one point. I think their DCA ops peaked in the 2017-2018 when they did DCA-BOS/CHS/FLL/RSW/BDL/JAX/NAS/MCO/SJU/TPA/PBI and seasonal ACK...I think they are now down to just BOS/FLL/RSW/NAS/MCO/SJU/PBI, and seasonal MVY/ACK.
WN could easily replicate any route network they had at IAD at DCA. B6 could not, and I struggle to understand how WAS fits into B6's route network.
Wait, wait, wait. WN was at IAD before they ever had any flights at DCA (by 6 years), as was B6, because neither of them had DCA slots. Neither of them was at Dulles by choice initially.
Both of them - as soon as they got enough slots - shoved much of their IAD operation over to DCA almost immediately. They both grew massively at DCA when getting slots from the AA-US divestiture. WN didn't serve DCA at all prior to summer 2012 because they had zero slots. B6 only started service there in 2010, with 9 daily slot pairs.
Where did I say that WN/B6 served DCA before they served IAD? I'm well aware of how both carriers got DCA slots, thanks.
I'm well aware of when each carrier entered DCA, and I'm also aware of when each carrier entered Dulles...my point I am trying to make is that it's impossible for B6 to replicate at DCA what they had at one point at Dulles because they don't have multiple beyond-permitter slots.
USAirALB wrote:IADCA wrote:atcsundevil wrote:Southwest is virtually irrelevant at IAD, and I have zero expectation that will ever change. Baltimore is their primary focus, National gets their secondary attention, and Dulles gets a handful of flights a day because they're not sure what else to do with it. They serve ATL for connections, and they serve MDW and DEN to keep UA in check, but there's no logical reason to serve PHX. Even pre covid, there was typically only one daily IAD-PHX frequency on UA with a second frequency added seasonally, so it's not like there's tons of demand that isn't already being adequately filled with their BWI ops. The fact that they're ending Orlando — one of the biggest markets from IAD — should be pretty telling. They aren't relevant here, and they're frankly not trying to be relevant. If they can't make MCO work, then forget about PHX or any other expensive transcon route.
Yeah, I don't think he gets that they - like B6 - consciously chose DCA over IAD when they could get enough slots and drew down their IAD ops. This makes sense, especially for WN. IAD exists primarily to serve exactly the type of traffic WN in which WN is relatively weaker - long domestic routes and international. DCA is exactly the opposite.
There's obviously enough population and money out near IAD to make it worth serving, but like you said, if MCO isn't going to work there, zero chance of PHX.
I'm not discrediting anything you said but I don't think you can compare WN's ops at IAD with B6's.
WN was never that large at Dulles and I don't think they ever had plans to expand...I think their operation topped off at 12 flights/day. WN has always been significantly larger at DCA and I believe DCA is their largest station in the East by destination count outside of Florida and BWI.
At the height of their Dulles ops, B6 was larger IAD than they ever were at DCA. For several years in the early 2000s it looked like IAD was going to be B6's secondary East Coast operating base (not BOS). I think at their height, they did IAD-SMF/LGB/OAK/FLL/SAN/CUN/RSW/JFK/BOS/SJU/PBI/SAN. I don't think all routes were flown concurrently, however, and I seem to recall LAS also being done at one point. I think their DCA ops peaked in the 2017-2018 when they did DCA-BOS/CHS/FLL/RSW/BDL/JAX/NAS/MCO/SJU/TPA/PBI and seasonal ACK...I think they are now down to just BOS/FLL/RSW/NAS/MCO/SJU/PBI, and seasonal MVY/ACK.
WN could easily replicate any route network they had at IAD at DCA. B6 could not, and I struggle to understand how WAS fits into B6's route network.