Welcome to the DC Airports Thread for 2022. This is for IAD, BWI, and DCA.

Continue discussions from the 2021 thread:
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1456155

Any news on the planned Centurion lounge at DCA as well as the Admiral's club in the new north pier? I heard a rumor that the small B/C Admirals club will close for a while.

washingtonflyer wrote:

Any news on the planned Centurion lounge at DCA as well as the Admiral's club in the new north pier? I heard a rumor that the small B/C Admirals club will close for a while.

Frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see AA close one of their ACs permanently, especially given that they are constructing a new one on the new regional concourse. While I don't doubt DCA has great levels of premium traffic, I question the need for each AA concourse to have its own individual club...CLT doesn't even have three ACs.

I could see the one serving Concourse C (Gates 23-34) closing for good.

USAirALB wrote:

Frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see AA close one of their ACs permanently, especially given that they are constructing a new one on the new regional concourse. While I don't doubt DCA has great levels of premium traffic, I question the need for each AA concourse to have its own individual club...CLT doesn't even have three ACs.

I could see the one serving Concourse C (Gates 23-34) closing for good.

Don't disagree with this. The reason to have one on each pier before was due to security. Once all the gates are accessible behind security I can see DCA going down to 2.

Anything new on the silver line extension to IAD opening? Last I heard February 2022 was the planned opening, but with the 7000 series trains still having issues getting back into service, I am not confident.

kbmiflyer wrote:

Anything new on the silver line extension to IAD opening? Last I heard February 2022 was the planned opening, but with the 7000 series trains still having issues getting back into service, I am not confident.

For sure not February. It's going to be 90 days past when MWAA gives the line to WMATA for testing, and then maybe. The 7000 series train issue only further complicates things. I'm thinking April/May, at the earliest, if Metro can get these trains in order soonish. Everything I've seen is a sign of terror. 5 of the 40 of the railcars that they had put back into service failed maintenance checks. We should hear more around the 12th (ya know, on the off chance that anyone connected to Metro will be on time).
2015, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2022, who knows? Maybe my grandchildren will see rail to Dulles.

If I'm not mistaken, MWAA hasn't even handed over the project to WMATA yet. There's a number of chapters that needed to be closed in regard to the project's final completion and I don't even think all have been closed yet. Once the project is handed over to WMATA, expect at least 5 months of testing/training, plus they need to hire additional workers to staff the extension. I honestly put the opening date on or around Labor Day 2022 (5 September).

WMATA right now is a basket-case...as a proud District resident I am truly embarrassed of our transit system. The agency needs to be shut down and rebuilt with all current board members + management dismissed. Of course, the only solution DMV policymakers have for fixing the system is to throw even more money into the agency and expect the dumpster fire to magically extinguish itself.

kbmiflyer wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

Frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see AA close one of their ACs permanently, especially given that they are constructing a new one on the new regional concourse. While I don't doubt DCA has great levels of premium traffic, I question the need for each AA concourse to have its own individual club...CLT doesn't even have three ACs.

I could see the one serving Concourse C (Gates 23-34) closing for good.

Don't disagree with this. The reason to have one on each pier before was due to security. Once all the gates are accessible behind security I can see DCA going down to 2.

I've always viewed lounges at DCA as something that is nice to have but not really essential. Lounge access is always great during times of IROPS, but with short lines at TSA PreCheck + Clear I personally value the easy in/easy out atmosphere more than any airline lounge. Thanks to the short walk from the Metro to the gates, I regularly arrive at the airport just as boarding is about to begin. That's somewhat why I was surprised at the Centurion Lounge announcement for DCA. Don't get me wrong; I love CLs and their amenities, but I just can't personally see myself arriving early at DCA just to access the lounge.

kbmiflyer wrote:

Anything new on the silver line extension to IAD opening? Last I heard February 2022 was the planned opening, but with the 7000 series trains still having issues getting back into service, I am not confident.

With the WMATA turnover still on schedule for next month, most optimistic is May.

I've got a flight out of IAD late July so we'll see. I used to live there and 20 years ago people would've screamed if anyone suggested opening as late as 2022.

Rough day for DCA today. Lots of flights with 2+ hour delays due to congestion and weather. Our YX flight to IND was delayed by about 2 hours and were lucky to get out when we did.

N292UX wrote:

Rough day for DCA today. Lots of flights with 2+ hour delays due to congestion and weather. Our YX flight to IND was delayed by about 2 hours and were lucky to get out when we did.

Yeah, they were still dealing with effects of Monday's storm. They had a lot of contaminated surfaces due to refreezing, and apparently they still had a number of contaminated taxiways that hadn't been cleared. I guess they were prioritizing the runways, ramps, and primary route taxiways. As a result, they had a lot of ramp congestion. It's been a while since it's happened, but ramp congestion was a fairly common reason for holding and GDPs/Ground Stops prior to covid. They simply don't have enough space to put airplanes while they wait for gates to open up.

So, a bunch of flights yesterday ended up down in RIC and elsewhere waiting it out. Considering DCA was closed for most of Monday, they've really had a bad couple of days. They've had 96 cancelations so far today (21% of the schedule), so it looks like they're still trying to recover.

Has IB announced the IAD summer schedule yet? I can't seem to find anything beyond the initial press release in November.

Forgot to add my predictions last week so I may as well post them now for IAD/BWI/DCA...
-IB formally launches IAD for 2023
-WN/NK add a few domestic routes from BWI. BWI-TUL on WN seems like a likely candidate
-UA/Air Wisconsin resolve the pilot issues and resume the "suspended" routes from IAD in late 2022 or 2023
-NK announces IAD, with service to places like MCO/FLL/TPA being likely
-BA resumes BWI (was recently suspended again)
-Not much out of DCA due to slot restrictions. AA could potentially add some Saturday-only services or a daily flight to somewhere like SGF. Maybe some other routes get some mainline service like IND or CMH
-UA adds summer IAD-JAC
-Air Senegal does not make it at BWI and either cuts the tag all together or moves it to IAD
-UA adds mainline service on some domestic routes. Places like SAV, PBI, and PNS could potentially see some A319 service at some point
-F9 adds a few routes out of BWI, maybe LAS and TPA?
-Excluding the presumed IB service, another international route at IAD is announced for 2023. Could potentially be SK to ARN, LY to TLV, LO to WAW, or UA to somewhere like MXP/LIM/MAN

N292UX wrote:

-Air Senegal does not make it at BWI and either cuts the tag all together or moves it to IAD

Out of everything you've written, this one is an absolute guarantee. This is one of the more head-scratching things I've seen in a while. Never mind flying from BWI, I don't think they fully understand getting flow timed literally into oblivion trying to get to JFK running a tag like this. Pure silliness that can only cost them serious cash.

BWIAirport wrote:

Your comment about timing was interesting. I don't know if this flight has been less than an hour delayed on any of its legs yet since the route started in September.

I haven't looked, but I'm not even remotely surprised. I think I made a comment on that sometime last summer or something when the route was announced. Ground stops or flow times will always affect the airports closest to the affected airport. That's the reason why flights like RIC-EWR are some of the most delayed flights in the NAS. Obviously preference will be given to flights in the air, but it's a bigger decision to extend ground stops beyond the originating center(s), and it has to come from system command. It's just easier to penalize short routes. It's less of an issue for domestic flights because they pad the schedules significantly to compensate and they're simply used to dealing with New York, but when that same aircraft needs to continue to a long haul leg, it creates a lot of additional logistical challenges, like gate space. Those delays just add up to more time that aircraft isn't flying, which is more time it isn't generating revenue. It's wasted time. Whatever little additional profit is made from the tag is probably lost five or six times over. It's a prestige route — or at least an attempt at one, because they accidently ended up in Baltimore — and prestige routes never last because they don't make money.

BWIAirport wrote:

atcsundevil wrote:

N292UX wrote:

-Air Senegal does not make it at BWI and either cuts the tag all together or moves it to IAD

Out of everything you've written, this one is an absolute guarantee. This is one of the more head-scratching things I've seen in a while. Never mind flying from BWI, I don't think they fully understand getting flow timed literally into oblivion trying to get to JFK running a tag like this. Pure silliness that can only cost them serious cash.

Yeah as much as I love BWI I was shocked this was moved in the first place (keep in mind the initial announcement was DSS-JFK-IAD). That being said, it was only supposed to be a couple months in September and October, but it's still going and they added a weekly frequency for the winter.
Your comment about timing was interesting. I don't know if this flight has been less than an hour delayed on any of its legs yet since the route started in September.

The reason why they switched from IAD to BWI was because they could not get a ground handling contractor to handle them at IAD. The two widebody airline ground handlers (Dynata and Swissport) were and still are dealing with staffing shortages effecting their current customers and were in no position to accept new contracts.

N292UX wrote:

-Air Senegal does not make it at BWI and either cuts the tag all together or moves it to IAD

Is this flight still around? I am at BWI often and haven't seen Air Senegal since November.

N292UX wrote:

Forgot to add my predictions last week so I may as well post them now for IAD/BWI/DCA...
-IB formally launches IAD for 2023

Sadly, I'm feeling like this is going to happen - They are supposedly supposed to start DFW and IAD in April, but it seems weird they haven't announced a schedule yet. I'm trying to lockdown summer travel to Europe and was hoping to use some miles on them.

BWIAirport wrote:

ItnStln wrote:

N292UX wrote:

-Air Senegal does not make it at BWI and either cuts the tag all together or moves it to IAD

Is this flight still around? I am at BWI often and haven't seen Air Senegal since November.

It's there Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday from around 11:30 to around 21:00. It parks often at E3/E5, so unless you're explicitly looking for it you won't see it. Always 9H-SZN.

The numbers so far seem anemic, like 30-some passengers per flight. At least Ghana Airways carried 150-200 or so passengers per BWI flight a couple decades ago, and the flight was even nonstop to Africa for a period.

BWIAirport wrote:

lawair wrote:

BWIAirport wrote:

It's there Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday from around 11:30 to around 21:00. It parks often at E3/E5, so unless you're explicitly looking for it you won't see it. Always 9H-SZN.

The numbers so far seem anemic, like 30-some passengers per flight. At least Ghana Airways carried 150-200 or so passengers per BWI flight a couple decades ago, and the flight was even nonstop to Africa for a period.

Wow, that's about as bad as I expected. How many pax per flight would be added with a move to IAD, like 10?
Not that it plays a huge role, but the flight is not advertised well at all in Baltimore (whereas it seemed everyone know about WOW Air). Regardless, I can't imagine 100 people per week need to get from Baltimore to Dakar, or to any of their onward connections. Surely this flight is sponsored heavily by the Senegalese government.
Tickets are also quite fairly-priced ($670 leaving this Sunday, compared to well over $1,000 on other airlines through Google Flights).

I'm sure it is subsidized by them, and the timing of their flights are meant to connect to whatever connections they have from DSS. The west African population in the D.C area is huge. When SA had their JNB-IAD flight make their fuel stop in DSS it did somewhat well, but then when it switched to ACC daily it really filled up. Many West African pax from this area fly on AF,TP,AT,SN and others. UA just went daily to ACC nonstop from IAD and started LOS 3 times a week. If and when SA returns they have lost some of their traffic to UA. I guess Air Senegal picks up considerably more pax when it gets to JFK. For what it's worth at least the inbound pax arrive as domestic since they cleared in JFK before hopping down to BWI.

BWIAirport wrote:

ItnStln wrote:

N292UX wrote:

-Air Senegal does not make it at BWI and either cuts the tag all together or moves it to IAD

Is this flight still around? I am at BWI often and haven't seen Air Senegal since November.

It's there Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday from around 11:30 to around 21:00. It parks often at E3/E5, so unless you're explicitly looking for it you won't see it. Always 9H-SZN.

Thanks! I am usually there earlier so that is why I don't see it.

N292UX wrote:

Forgot to add my predictions last week so I may as well post them now for IAD/BWI/DCA...

-BA resumes BWI (was recently suspended again)

There have been reports that May will be when it resumes

N292UX wrote:

Forgot to add my predictions last week so I may as well post them now for IAD/BWI/DCA...
-NK announces IAD, with service to places like MCO/FLL/TPA being likely
-UA adds mainline service on some domestic routes. Places like SAV, PBI, and PNS could potentially see some A319 service at some point
-Excluding the presumed IB service, another international route at IAD is announced for 2023. Could potentially be SK to ARN, LY to TLV, LO to WAW, or UA to somewhere like MXP/LIM/MAN

1) Frankly I can't see what NK would gain from adding NK. LCCs really tend to not perform well at Dulles. WN has shrunk considerably from their initial footprint (7x MDW, 1x LAS, 2x TPA, 2x MCO...they also added SAN at one point IIRC). F9 had a mini-focus city a couple of years back that was abandoned pretty quickly. I have my doubts that G4 will be able to succeed, although its obvious that MWAA gave them some sort of marketing package...there are G4 advertisements all over the Metro.

2) UA has been slowly adding mainline service to new markets ex IAD within the last several months. CLT/ROC/SYR/BUF/CHS/PWM now see mainline service sporadically, for example. I don't think those markets are outside the realm of possibility.

3) Of those that you mentioned, I would say LO to WAW is the most likely as they actually announced thrice-weekly IAD service to start Summer 2020. LX also announced a return to IAD, and I can see them returning, but not until business travel resumes. I would say AY to HEL is a possibility, maybe as a thrice weekly service on an A333.

My outlook/predictions:
4) ITA was supposed to start IAD-FCO Spring/Summer 2022 but removed all references to IAD on their website last Fall. If LH does end up taking over ITA, I could see them start IAD-FCO.

5) AC has said IAD-YYC and IAD-YVR are potential A220 routes. While I can't really see IAD-YYC coming to fruition, I view IAD-YVR as a possibility. AC used to have an A319 IAD-YVR service in the early 2000s.

6) My personal (yet probably unrealistic) wish: AA restarts IAD-LAX.

USAirALB wrote:

1) Frankly I can't see what NK would gain from adding NK. LCCs really tend to not perform well at Dulles. WN has shrunk considerably from their initial footprint (7x MDW, 1x LAS, 2x TPA, 2x MCO...they also added SAN at one point IIRC). F9 had a mini-focus city a couple of years back that was abandoned pretty quickly. I have my doubts that G4 will be able to succeed, although its obvious that MWAA gave them some sort of marketing package...there are G4 advertisements all over the Metro.

IAD can likely support WN nonstop service to PHX with
(a) PHX being outside of the DCA perimeter,
(b) the significant FF bases that WN has in Greater Phoenix, the DC metro area, and Southern California to support IAD-PHX nonstop service on WN,
(c) the connecting opportunities that would be there to Vegas and Southern California through PHX on WN,
(d) UA currently being the only airline serving PHX nonstop from IAD, and
(e) AA currently being the only airline serving PHX nonstop from DCA.

NK doesn't currently serve DCA, unlike some other LCC's/ULCC's such as F9, B6, or WN. IAD is also far enough from BWI to support NK service out of both IAD and BWI with IAD being almost 60 miles west of BWI.

If NK does add service to IAD, NK can likely make IAD-LAS nonstop service work with LAS currently having no nonstop service out of IAD or DCA on any LCC's/ULCC's along with LAS being one of the top destinations traveled to from IAD.

NK can also likely make IAD-FLL/MCO nonstop service work with (a) UA currently being the only airline serving the MIA/FLL market nonstop from IAD, (b) UA being the only remaining airline on the IAD-MCO route once WN ends IAD-MCO nonstop service, and (c) FLL and MCO both being two of the top markets traveled to from IAD.

jplatts wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

1) Frankly I can't see what NK would gain from adding NK. LCCs really tend to not perform well at Dulles. WN has shrunk considerably from their initial footprint (7x MDW, 1x LAS, 2x TPA, 2x MCO...they also added SAN at one point IIRC). F9 had a mini-focus city a couple of years back that was abandoned pretty quickly. I have my doubts that G4 will be able to succeed, although its obvious that MWAA gave them some sort of marketing package...there are G4 advertisements all over the Metro.

IAD can likely support WN nonstop service to PHX with
(a) PHX being outside of the DCA perimeter,
(b) the significant FF bases that WN has in Greater Phoenix, the DC metro area, and Southern California to support IAD-PHX nonstop service on WN,
(c) the connecting opportunities that would be there to Vegas and Southern California through PHX on WN,
(d) UA currently being the only airline serving PHX nonstop from IAD, and
(e) AA currently being the only airline serving PHX nonstop from DCA.

You're proposing a ~2000 mile route that competes with nearly 1,000 existing nonstop seats daily (and no barrier to adding many more) and offers connection possibilities only to places that are already well-served with equal efficiency with flights via MDW, all from WN's (by far) weakest airport in the region. There's a reason this doesn't exist. Or, put otherwise:

(a) Yes, but it does have flights, per (e), and it's 3x daily on A321s. That does a lot to lock up a lot of the AA FF base that might otherwise be in play for a WN flight at IAD.
(b) Why do Southern California connections matter? IAD-MDW-LAX, for example, is literally 1 mile different in distance than over PHX. There's not really an efficiency there for WN. You're left with "FF bases in DC area to PHX" which sorta suggests an answer that isn't WN. And WN's FF base in DC is likely heavily weighted towards BWI and weakest around IAD.
(c) Again, getting to LAS from IAD via MDW is actually shorter than via PHX.
(d) Yes, already twice daily with ~340 seats each way and no restrictions preventing them from immediately adding a lot more.
(e) Yeah, and it's 3 times daily on A321s - that's already almost 600 seats each way every day, including premium offerings that will soak up a lot of the most profitable customers.

IADCA wrote:

jplatts wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

1) Frankly I can't see what NK would gain from adding NK. LCCs really tend to not perform well at Dulles. WN has shrunk considerably from their initial footprint (7x MDW, 1x LAS, 2x TPA, 2x MCO...they also added SAN at one point IIRC). F9 had a mini-focus city a couple of years back that was abandoned pretty quickly. I have my doubts that G4 will be able to succeed, although its obvious that MWAA gave them some sort of marketing package...there are G4 advertisements all over the Metro.

IAD can likely support WN nonstop service to PHX with
(a) PHX being outside of the DCA perimeter,
(b) the significant FF bases that WN has in Greater Phoenix, the DC metro area, and Southern California to support IAD-PHX nonstop service on WN,
(c) the connecting opportunities that would be there to Vegas and Southern California through PHX on WN,
(d) UA currently being the only airline serving PHX nonstop from IAD, and
(e) AA currently being the only airline serving PHX nonstop from DCA.

You're proposing a ~2000 mile route that competes with nearly 1,000 existing nonstop seats daily (and no barrier to adding many more) and offers connection possibilities only to places that are already well-served with equal efficiency with flights via MDW, all from WN's (by far) weakest airport in the region. There's a reason this doesn't exist. Or, put otherwise:

(a) Yes, but it does have flights, per (e), and it's 3x daily on A321s. That does a lot to lock up a lot of the AA FF base that might otherwise be in play for a WN flight at IAD.
(b) Why do Southern California connections matter? IAD-MDW-LAX, for example, is literally 1 mile different in distance than over PHX. There's not really an efficiency there for WN. You're left with "FF bases in DC area to PHX" which sorta suggests an answer that isn't WN. And WN's FF base in DC is likely heavily weighted towards BWI and weakest around IAD.
(c) Again, getting to LAS from IAD via MDW is actually shorter than via PHX.
(d) Yes, already twice daily with ~340 seats each way and no restrictions preventing them from immediately adding a lot more.
(e) Yeah, and it's 3 times daily on A321s - that's already almost 600 seats each way every day, including premium offerings that will soak up a lot of the most profitable customers.

WN also currently serves IAD-DEN at a twice daily frequency that literally offers all of the same connection opportunities present at PHX, sans for Hawaii. Starting IAD-PHX does nothing for WN except tie up a plane for the better half of a day on a route that would likely lose money.

There's a reason UA is the only carrier on IAD-PHX, and there's a reason that UA only flies it once daily. US dropped IAD-PHX years ago (before the AA merger IIRC), and just recently dropped BWI-PHX. Between AA's thrice daily flights, UA's daily flight, and WN's twice daily flights, I would say PHX-WAS is pretty well served.

Also, for most people in DC (myself included), if you are schlepping out to Dulles, it's to take a nonstop flight. I'm not sure why someone would trek all the way out to Dulles just to have to make a connection, when they could have also reached the same destination via a connection from DCA.

I've often found WN to be quite expensive at IAD compared to DCA. Case in point, I found O/W fares from DCA to SMF this summer on WN at $212. The cheapest fare ex IAD on WN (for the same day) was $286. UA's nonstop from Dulles was just $213.

USAirALB wrote:

IADCA wrote:

WN also currently serves IAD-DEN at a twice daily frequency that literally offers all of the same connection opportunities present at PHX, sans for Hawaii. Starting IAD-PHX does nothing for WN except tie up a plane for the better half of a day on a route that would likely lose money.

There's a reason UA is the only carrier on IAD-PHX, and there's a reason that UA only flies it once daily. US dropped IAD-PHX years ago (before the AA merger IIRC), and just recently dropped BWI-PHX. Between AA's thrice daily flights, UA's daily flight, and WN's twice daily flights, I would say PHX-WAS is pretty well served.

WN actually carried more of the PHX-WAS O&D than AA or UA in Q3 2021, with WN carrying an average of 256 O&D passengers/day in each direction between WAS and PHX in Q3 2021.

jplatts wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

IADCA wrote:

WN also currently serves IAD-DEN at a twice daily frequency that literally offers all of the same connection opportunities present at PHX, sans for Hawaii. Starting IAD-PHX does nothing for WN except tie up a plane for the better half of a day on a route that would likely lose money.

There's a reason UA is the only carrier on IAD-PHX, and there's a reason that UA only flies it once daily. US dropped IAD-PHX years ago (before the AA merger IIRC), and just recently dropped BWI-PHX. Between AA's thrice daily flights, UA's daily flight, and WN's twice daily flights, I would say PHX-WAS is pretty well served.

WN actually carried more of the PHX-WAS O&D than AA or UA in Q3 2021, with WN carrying an average of 256 O&D passengers/day in each direction between WAS and PHX in Q3 2021.

Does that include BWI? Because you can basically throw BWI numbers out the window when discussing domestic routes from IAD.

IADCA wrote:

Does that include BWI? Because you can basically throw BWI numbers out the window when discussing domestic routes from IAD.

The number that I mentioned above includes both O&D passengers traveling on WN BWI-PHX nonstop flights and passengers connecting to PHX from DCA/IAD on WN (but excludes passengers connecting onto WN BWI-PHX nonstop flights from other cities).

There was an average of 31 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and DCA on WN in Q3 2021, but PHX is outside of the DCA perimeter.

There was also an average of 36 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and DCA on airlines other than AA or WN in Q3 2021, but UA or DL would probably never serve PHX nonstop from DCA (even if extra beyond-perimeter slot exemptions are added at DCA).

There was an average of 12 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and IAD on WN in Q3 2021. There was also only an average of 18 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and IAD on airlines other than UA or WN in Q3 2021.

USAirALB wrote:

4) ITA was supposed to start IAD-FCO Spring/Summer 2022 but removed all references to IAD on their website last Fall. If LH does end up taking over ITA, I could see them start IAD-FCO.

That would be nice, but I doubt it will happen, because it would compete with JV partner United. Maybe that could turn the route from the current seasonal UA flight to year round.

This would seem to me a 321XLR route, but I don't know if the XLR range is sufficient. Maybe with a "triangular" route IAD-FCO-MXP-IAD like UA used to have many years ago, with MXP only westbound.

jplatts wrote:

IADCA wrote:

Does that include BWI? Because you can basically throw BWI numbers out the window when discussing domestic routes from IAD.

The number that I mentioned above includes both O&D passengers traveling on WN BWI-PHX nonstop flights and passengers connecting to PHX from DCA/IAD on WN (but excludes passengers connecting onto WN BWI-PHX nonstop flights from other cities).

There was an average of 31 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and DCA on WN in Q3 2021, but PHX is outside of the DCA perimeter.

There was also an average of 36 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and DCA on airlines other than AA or WN in Q3 2021, but UA or DL would probably never serve PHX nonstop from DCA (even if extra beyond-perimeter slot exemptions are added at DCA).

There was an average of 12 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and IAD on WN in Q3 2021. There was also only an average of 18 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and IAD on airlines other than UA or WN in Q3 2021.

Right, I know what O&D means, but the point is that when you're including WN's own nonstop numbers from BWI while pushing for an IAD flight, you're either (a) making a pitch that they should cannibalize their own existing BWI flights by adding IAD or (b) admitting that IAD and BWI don't serve the same customers. It doesn't surprise me that WN carries more passengers than the other carriers on WAS-PHX. It doesn't surprise me because they do BWI-PHX, which are huge stations for them on both ends, and that flight serves Maryland plus most of the residential sections of DC itself well.

But that does very little to illuminate whether they have a viable case for IAD-PHX. It's throwing a number out there without any actual application to the reality. Virtually nobody who is flying from BWI is also considering flying from Dulles on a domestic flight.

Your last sets of numbers are the important ones. You've basically said that there are 18 passengers a day connecting on other carriers that WN might attract to its own nonstop, plus 36 such people at DCA (many of whom would probably rather go to BWI than IAD). Everything else would be WN cannibalizing itself or competing with extant nonstop offerings. That's not much justification for a 2,000 mile flight.

Is there an anticipated return for AC to BWI?

USAirALB wrote:

1) Frankly I can't see what NK would gain from adding NK. LCCs really tend to not perform well at Dulles. WN has shrunk considerably from their initial footprint (7x MDW, 1x LAS, 2x TPA, 2x MCO...they also added SAN at one point IIRC). F9 had a mini-focus city a couple of years back that was abandoned pretty quickly. I have my doubts that G4 will be able to succeed, although its obvious that MWAA gave them some sort of marketing package...there are G4 advertisements all over the Metro.

Don't forget JetBlue and the mini hub they had here about 15 years ago. I'm still a little bitter about losing them. I'm pretty sure Allegiant actually requires cities they serve to offer marketing packages along with other incentives. They have a tendency to drop markets at the conclusion of incentives with little notice. I completely agree on NK — there's nothing to be gained from Spirit coming to IAD. PFCs are probably still too high for their liking. The NOVA area is obviously largely well off, so there just isn't much appeal for LCCs when the bougie folks around here can fly full service carriers. Given that fact, they certainly would not be willing to go for G̶r̶e̶y̶h̶o̶u̶n̶d̶ Spirit. Allegiant might stand a chance since Florida is a destination people tend to try to do cheaply, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pick up and leave in two years.

IADCA wrote:

jplatts wrote:

IADCA wrote:

Does that include BWI? Because you can basically throw BWI numbers out the window when discussing domestic routes from IAD.

The number that I mentioned above includes both O&D passengers traveling on WN BWI-PHX nonstop flights and passengers connecting to PHX from DCA/IAD on WN (but excludes passengers connecting onto WN BWI-PHX nonstop flights from other cities).

There was an average of 31 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and DCA on WN in Q3 2021, but PHX is outside of the DCA perimeter.

There was also an average of 36 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and DCA on airlines other than AA or WN in Q3 2021, but UA or DL would probably never serve PHX nonstop from DCA (even if extra beyond-perimeter slot exemptions are added at DCA).

There was an average of 12 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and IAD on WN in Q3 2021. There was also only an average of 18 passengers/day in each direction making connections between PHX and IAD on airlines other than UA or WN in Q3 2021.

Right, I know what O&D means, but the point is that when you're including WN's own nonstop numbers from BWI while pushing for an IAD flight, you're either (a) making a pitch that they should cannibalize their own existing BWI flights by adding IAD or (b) admitting that IAD and BWI don't serve the same customers. It doesn't surprise me that WN carries more passengers than the other carriers on WAS-PHX. It doesn't surprise me because they do BWI-PHX, which are huge stations for them on both ends, and that flight serves Maryland plus most of the residential sections of DC itself well.

But that does very little to illuminate whether they have a viable case for IAD-PHX. It's throwing a number out there without any actual application to the reality. Virtually nobody who is flying from BWI is also considering flying from Dulles on a domestic flight.

Your last sets of numbers are the important ones. You've basically said that there are 18 passengers a day connecting on other carriers that WN might attract to its own nonstop, plus 36 such people at DCA (many of whom would probably rather go to BWI than IAD). Everything else would be WN cannibalizing itself or competing with extant nonstop offerings. That's not much justification for a 2,000 mile flight.

Southwest is virtually irrelevant at IAD, and I have zero expectation that will ever change. Baltimore is their primary focus, National gets their secondary attention, and Dulles gets a handful of flights a day because they're not sure what else to do with it. They serve ATL for connections, and they serve MDW and DEN to keep UA in check, but there's no logical reason to serve PHX. Even pre covid, there was typically only one daily IAD-PHX frequency on UA with a second frequency added seasonally, so it's not like there's tons of demand that isn't already being adequately filled with their BWI ops. The fact that they're ending Orlando — one of the biggest markets from IAD — should be pretty telling. They aren't relevant here, and they're frankly not trying to be relevant. If they can't make MCO work, then forget about PHX or any other expensive transcon route.

atcsundevil wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

1) Frankly I can't see what NK would gain from adding NK. LCCs really tend to not perform well at Dulles. WN has shrunk considerably from their initial footprint (7x MDW, 1x LAS, 2x TPA, 2x MCO...they also added SAN at one point IIRC). F9 had a mini-focus city a couple of years back that was abandoned pretty quickly. I have my doubts that G4 will be able to succeed, although its obvious that MWAA gave them some sort of marketing package...there are G4 advertisements all over the Metro.

Don't forget JetBlue and the mini hub they had here about 15 years ago. I'm still a little bitter about losing them. I'm pretty sure Allegiant actually requires cities they serve to offer marketing packages along with other incentives. They have a tendency to drop markets at the conclusion of incentives with little notice. I completely agree on NK — there's nothing to be gained from Spirit coming to IAD. PFCs are probably still too high for their liking. The NOVA area is obviously largely well off, so there just isn't much appeal for LCCs when the bougie folks around here can fly full service carriers. Given that fact, they certainly would not be willing to go for G̶r̶e̶y̶h̶o̶u̶n̶d̶ Spirit. Allegiant might stand a chance since Florida is a destination people tend to try to do cheaply, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pick up and leave in two years.

Now that I think about it, I do wonder if MWAA offers some type of Metro advertising deal to all new carriers Dulles. I recall CX/AZ/TP/VR advertising pretty heavily on the train and in the stations during their first couple of months of service into IAD. I also saw a ton of LX advertisements during February/March 2020 for their service resumption that never occurred.

I often forget that B6 was once quite large at IAD. While I don't see them ever returning to IAD with the same network they once had, I wouldn't be surprised to see them launch IAD-SFO/LAX maybe at one or two daily flights each with a Mint A321 given how much they are trying to grow in both SFO and LAX.

USAirALB wrote:

Now that I think about it, I do wonder if MWAA offers some type of Metro advertising deal to all new carriers Dulles. I recall CX/AZ/TP/VR advertising pretty heavily on the train and in the stations during their first couple of months of service into IAD. I also saw a ton of LX advertisements during February/March 2020 for their service resumption that never occurred.

I often forget that B6 was once quite large at IAD. While I don't see them ever returning to IAD with the same network they once had, I wouldn't be surprised to see them launch IAD-SFO/LAX maybe at one or two daily flights each with a Mint A321 given how much they are trying to grow in both SFO and LAX.

Marketing incentives are pretty standard for airport authorities, as are things like profit guarantees, and reduced or suspended landing or parking fees. Advertising is pretty low hanging fruit for the airport authority, especially because they typically work out marketing packages with partners in the region to save them money. WMATA shares a common goal with MWAA, and they're both government entities, so advertisement on Metro is most certainly done at a deep discount. It's an incentive worth potentially a million or more to the airline typically over the two year incentive period, but costs the airport authority only a couple hundred thousand. The ad space is already on a long term contract anyway, and it's simply filled by whichever airline MWAA wants to incentivize.

I keep hoping JetBlue will come back someday. I think they were left with a pretty sour taste in their mouth, but it has to be at least 10 years since they withdrew. I wouldn't even care so much about transcons (where they'd probably struggle to compete anyway) as I would a little connectivity with their network. They presumably don't want to waste JFK slots though, and service on Florida routes probably isn't profitable enough to be worth their effort. If all they'd realistically add is BOS, that wouldn't give them enough market presence to matter. I would love for them to jump back in and give it another go, but unfortunately I won't be holding my breath. I'm a big fan of JetBlue, but honestly not enough to schlep all the way in to DCA.

atcsundevil wrote:

I keep hoping JetBlue will come back someday. I think they were left with a pretty sour taste in their mouth, but it has to be at least 10 years since they withdrew. I wouldn't even care so much about transcons (where they'd probably struggle to compete anyway) as I would a little connectivity with their network. They presumably don't want to waste JFK slots though, and service on Florida routes probably isn't profitable enough to be worth their effort. If all they'd realistically add is BOS, that wouldn't give them enough market presence to matter. I would love for them to jump back in and give it another go, but unfortunately I won't be holding my breath. I'm a big fan of JetBlue, but honestly not enough to schlep all the way in to DCA.

The focus-city closed around 10 years ago, but B6 only left IAD in 2019. At that point they were down to only a couple BOS flights per day.

atcsundevil wrote:

Southwest is virtually irrelevant at IAD, and I have zero expectation that will ever change. Baltimore is their primary focus, National gets their secondary attention, and Dulles gets a handful of flights a day because they're not sure what else to do with it. They serve ATL for connections, and they serve MDW and DEN to keep UA in check, but there's no logical reason to serve PHX. Even pre covid, there was typically only one daily IAD-PHX frequency on UA with a second frequency added seasonally, so it's not like there's tons of demand that isn't already being adequately filled with their BWI ops. The fact that they're ending Orlando — one of the biggest markets from IAD — should be pretty telling. They aren't relevant here, and they're frankly not trying to be relevant. If they can't make MCO work, then forget about PHX or any other expensive transcon route.

Yeah, I don't think he gets that they - like B6 - consciously chose DCA over IAD when they could get enough slots and drew down their IAD ops. This makes sense, especially for WN. IAD exists primarily to serve exactly the type of traffic WN in which WN is relatively weaker - long domestic routes and international. DCA is exactly the opposite.

There's obviously enough population and money out near IAD to make it worth serving, but like you said, if MCO isn't going to work there, zero chance of PHX.

USAirALB wrote:

The focus-city closed around 10 years ago, but B6 only left IAD in 2019. At that point they were down to only a couple BOS flights per day.

I hadn't realized it was that recent, but you're right. I guess in my mind, they sort of died here when the focus city closed.

IADCA wrote:

Yeah, I don't think he gets that they - like B6 - consciously chose DCA over IAD when they could get enough slots and drew down their IAD ops. This makes sense, especially for WN. IAD exists primarily to serve exactly the type of traffic WN in which WN is relatively weaker - long domestic routes and international. DCA is exactly the opposite.

There's obviously enough population and money out near IAD to make it worth serving, but like you said, if MCO isn't going to work there, zero chance of PHX.

Yep. It's fun to play armchair airline tycoon and think of all the wonderful routes an airline could operate, but speculation needs to be tempered with reality. IAD has never been friendly to LCCs; Southwest is no exception, and that will not change. IAD is substantially more premium heavy than most US airports, which is why the insinuations over the years that UA would pick up their ball and leave is laughable. They haven't given IAD the investment that it probably deserves, but they sure as hell aren't going to abandon it. BWI is built around an LCC model, which is why Southwest, Spirit, and Allegiant thrive there. Common sense says you're unlikely have two successful LCC airports in the same market.

All of that is aside from the fact that Southwest has been stretched extremely thin on their fleet for the past several years, so in the infrequent instances they do add new routes with longer stage lengths, they're going to go with the routes that will be the most profitable. IAD offers them little guarantee of profitability, and it offers them little benefit to their network.

IADCA wrote:

atcsundevil wrote:

Southwest is virtually irrelevant at IAD, and I have zero expectation that will ever change. Baltimore is their primary focus, National gets their secondary attention, and Dulles gets a handful of flights a day because they're not sure what else to do with it. They serve ATL for connections, and they serve MDW and DEN to keep UA in check, but there's no logical reason to serve PHX. Even pre covid, there was typically only one daily IAD-PHX frequency on UA with a second frequency added seasonally, so it's not like there's tons of demand that isn't already being adequately filled with their BWI ops. The fact that they're ending Orlando — one of the biggest markets from IAD — should be pretty telling. They aren't relevant here, and they're frankly not trying to be relevant. If they can't make MCO work, then forget about PHX or any other expensive transcon route.

Yeah, I don't think he gets that they - like B6 - consciously chose DCA over IAD when they could get enough slots and drew down their IAD ops. This makes sense, especially for WN. IAD exists primarily to serve exactly the type of traffic WN in which WN is relatively weaker - long domestic routes and international. DCA is exactly the opposite.

There's obviously enough population and money out near IAD to make it worth serving, but like you said, if MCO isn't going to work there, zero chance of PHX.

I'm not discrediting anything you said but I don't think you can compare WN's ops at IAD with B6's.

WN was never that large at Dulles and I don't think they ever had plans to expand...I think their operation topped off at 12 flights/day. WN has always been significantly larger at DCA and I believe DCA is their largest station in the East by destination count outside of Florida and BWI.

At the height of their Dulles ops, B6 was larger IAD than they ever were at DCA. For several years in the early 2000s it looked like IAD was going to be B6's secondary East Coast operating base (not BOS). I think at their height, they did IAD-SMF/LGB/OAK/FLL/SAN/CUN/RSW/JFK/BOS/SJU/PBI/SAN. I don't think all routes were flown concurrently, however, and I seem to recall LAS also being done at one point. I think their DCA ops peaked in the 2017-2018 when they did DCA-BOS/CHS/FLL/RSW/BDL/JAX/NAS/MCO/SJU/TPA/PBI and seasonal ACK...I think they are now down to just BOS/FLL/RSW/NAS/MCO/SJU/PBI, and seasonal MVY/ACK.

WN could easily replicate any route network they had at IAD at DCA. B6 could not, and I struggle to understand how WAS fits into B6's route network.

USAirALB wrote:

[

WN has always been significantly larger at DCA and I believe DCA is their largest station in the East by destination count outside of Florida and BWI.

At the height of their Dulles ops, B6 was larger IAD than they ever were at DCA. For several years in the early 2000s it looked like IAD was going to be B6's secondary East Coast operating base (not BOS). I think at their height, they did IAD-SMF/LGB/OAK/FLL/SAN/CUN/RSW/JFK/BOS/SJU/PBI/SAN. I don't think all routes were flown concurrently, however, and I seem to recall LAS also being done at one point. I think their DCA ops peaked in the 2017-2018 when they did DCA-BOS/CHS/FLL/RSW/BDL/JAX/NAS/MCO/SJU/TPA/PBI and seasonal ACK...I think they are now down to just BOS/FLL/RSW/NAS/MCO/SJU/PBI, and seasonal MVY/ACK.

WN could easily replicate any route network they had at IAD at DCA. B6 could not, and I struggle to understand how WAS fits into B6's route network.

Wait, wait, wait. WN was at IAD before they ever had any flights at DCA (by 6 years), as was B6, because neither of them had DCA slots. Neither of them was at Dulles by choice initially.

Both of them - as soon as they got enough slots - shoved much of their IAD operation over to DCA almost immediately. They both grew massively at DCA when getting slots from the AA-US divestiture. WN didn't serve DCA at all prior to summer 2012 because they had zero slots. B6 only started service there in 2010, with 9 daily slot pairs.

IADCA wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

[

WN has always been significantly larger at DCA and I believe DCA is their largest station in the East by destination count outside of Florida and BWI.

At the height of their Dulles ops, B6 was larger IAD than they ever were at DCA. For several years in the early 2000s it looked like IAD was going to be B6's secondary East Coast operating base (not BOS). I think at their height, they did IAD-SMF/LGB/OAK/FLL/SAN/CUN/RSW/JFK/BOS/SJU/PBI/SAN. I don't think all routes were flown concurrently, however, and I seem to recall LAS also being done at one point. I think their DCA ops peaked in the 2017-2018 when they did DCA-BOS/CHS/FLL/RSW/BDL/JAX/NAS/MCO/SJU/TPA/PBI and seasonal ACK...I think they are now down to just BOS/FLL/RSW/NAS/MCO/SJU/PBI, and seasonal MVY/ACK.

WN could easily replicate any route network they had at IAD at DCA. B6 could not, and I struggle to understand how WAS fits into B6's route network.

Wait, wait, wait. WN was at IAD before they ever had any flights at DCA (by 6 years), as was B6, because neither of them had DCA slots. Neither of them was at Dulles by choice initially.

Both of them - as soon as they got enough slots - shoved much of their IAD operation over to DCA almost immediately. They both grew massively at DCA when getting slots from the AA-US divestiture. WN didn't serve DCA at all prior to summer 2012 because they had zero slots. B6 only started service there in 2010, with 9 daily slot pairs.

How quickly they forget lol.. I do remember NK being at DCA, what year did move everything to BWI? I imagine some of those slots also went WN and B6

IADCA wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

[

WN has always been significantly larger at DCA and I believe DCA is their largest station in the East by destination count outside of Florida and BWI.

At the height of their Dulles ops, B6 was larger IAD than they ever were at DCA. For several years in the early 2000s it looked like IAD was going to be B6's secondary East Coast operating base (not BOS). I think at their height, they did IAD-SMF/LGB/OAK/FLL/SAN/CUN/RSW/JFK/BOS/SJU/PBI/SAN. I don't think all routes were flown concurrently, however, and I seem to recall LAS also being done at one point. I think their DCA ops peaked in the 2017-2018 when they did DCA-BOS/CHS/FLL/RSW/BDL/JAX/NAS/MCO/SJU/TPA/PBI and seasonal ACK...I think they are now down to just BOS/FLL/RSW/NAS/MCO/SJU/PBI, and seasonal MVY/ACK.

WN could easily replicate any route network they had at IAD at DCA. B6 could not, and I struggle to understand how WAS fits into B6's route network.

Wait, wait, wait. WN was at IAD before they ever had any flights at DCA (by 6 years), as was B6, because neither of them had DCA slots. Neither of them was at Dulles by choice initially.

Both of them - as soon as they got enough slots - shoved much of their IAD operation over to DCA almost immediately. They both grew massively at DCA when getting slots from the AA-US divestiture. WN didn't serve DCA at all prior to summer 2012 because they had zero slots. B6 only started service there in 2010, with 9 daily slot pairs.

Where did I say that WN/B6 served DCA before they served IAD? I'm well aware of how both carriers got DCA slots, thanks.

I'm well aware of when each carrier entered DCA, and I'm also aware of when each carrier entered Dulles...my point I am trying to make is that it's impossible for B6 to replicate at DCA what they had at one point at Dulles because they don't have multiple beyond-permitter slots.

USAirALB wrote:

IADCA wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

[

WN has always been significantly larger at DCA and I believe DCA is their largest station in the East by destination count outside of Florida and BWI.

At the height of their Dulles ops, B6 was larger IAD than they ever were at DCA. For several years in the early 2000s it looked like IAD was going to be B6's secondary East Coast operating base (not BOS). I think at their height, they did IAD-SMF/LGB/OAK/FLL/SAN/CUN/RSW/JFK/BOS/SJU/PBI/SAN. I don't think all routes were flown concurrently, however, and I seem to recall LAS also being done at one point. I think their DCA ops peaked in the 2017-2018 when they did DCA-BOS/CHS/FLL/RSW/BDL/JAX/NAS/MCO/SJU/TPA/PBI and seasonal ACK...I think they are now down to just BOS/FLL/RSW/NAS/MCO/SJU/PBI, and seasonal MVY/ACK.

WN could easily replicate any route network they had at IAD at DCA. B6 could not, and I struggle to understand how WAS fits into B6's route network.

Wait, wait, wait. WN was at IAD before they ever had any flights at DCA (by 6 years), as was B6, because neither of them had DCA slots. Neither of them was at Dulles by choice initially.

Both of them - as soon as they got enough slots - shoved much of their IAD operation over to DCA almost immediately. They both grew massively at DCA when getting slots from the AA-US divestiture. WN didn't serve DCA at all prior to summer 2012 because they had zero slots. B6 only started service there in 2010, with 9 daily slot pairs.

Where did I say that WN/B6 served DCA before they served IAD? I'm well aware of how both carriers got DCA slots, thanks.

I'm well aware of when each carrier entered DCA, and I'm also aware of when each carrier entered Dulles...my point I am trying to make is that it's impossible for B6 to replicate at DCA what they had at one point at Dulles because they don't have multiple beyond-permitter slots.

You didn't say they served DCA first. You said: "WN has always been significantly larger at DCA." That's simply not true given the non-trivial period in which they served Dulles without serving DCA at all.

And yes, it's not possible for B6 to replicate their IAD op at DCA because of the perimeter, but that was the last sentence of a fairly lengthy post. It's indisputably true, of course.

Looks like private jet is up around 40% YoY at IAD. I have definitely noticed more GA traffic in the skies recently, so this doesn't surprise me.

https://wtop.com/business-finance/2022/ ... hey-going/

Allegiant is adding on at IAD. AUS and BNA start in April.

USAirALB wrote:

IADCA wrote:

atcsundevil wrote:

Southwest is virtually irrelevant at IAD, and I have zero expectation that will ever change. Baltimore is their primary focus, National gets their secondary attention, and Dulles gets a handful of flights a day because they're not sure what else to do with it. They serve ATL for connections, and they serve MDW and DEN to keep UA in check, but there's no logical reason to serve PHX. Even pre covid, there was typically only one daily IAD-PHX frequency on UA with a second frequency added seasonally, so it's not like there's tons of demand that isn't already being adequately filled with their BWI ops. The fact that they're ending Orlando — one of the biggest markets from IAD — should be pretty telling. They aren't relevant here, and they're frankly not trying to be relevant. If they can't make MCO work, then forget about PHX or any other expensive transcon route.

Yeah, I don't think he gets that they - like B6 - consciously chose DCA over IAD when they could get enough slots and drew down their IAD ops. This makes sense, especially for WN. IAD exists primarily to serve exactly the type of traffic WN in which WN is relatively weaker - long domestic routes and international. DCA is exactly the opposite.

There's obviously enough population and money out near IAD to make it worth serving, but like you said, if MCO isn't going to work there, zero chance of PHX.

I'm not discrediting anything you said but I don't think you can compare WN's ops at IAD with B6's.

WN was never that large at Dulles and I don't think they ever had plans to expand...I think their operation topped off at 12 flights/day. WN has always been significantly larger at DCA and I believe DCA is their largest station in the East by destination count outside of Florida and BWI.

At the height of their Dulles ops, B6 was larger IAD than they ever were at DCA. For several years in the early 2000s it looked like IAD was going to be B6's secondary East Coast operating base (not BOS). I think at their height, they did IAD-SMF/LGB/OAK/FLL/SAN/CUN/RSW/JFK/BOS/SJU/PBI/SAN. I don't think all routes were flown concurrently, however, and I seem to recall LAS also being done at one point. I think their DCA ops peaked in the 2017-2018 when they did DCA-BOS/CHS/FLL/RSW/BDL/JAX/NAS/MCO/SJU/TPA/PBI and seasonal ACK...I think they are now down to just BOS/FLL/RSW/NAS/MCO/SJU/PBI, and seasonal MVY/ACK.

WN could easily replicate any route network they had at IAD at DCA. B6 could not, and I struggle to understand how WAS fits into B6's route network.

Regarding B6 at IAD, BUR, as well as LAS. The large transcon expansion didn’t last long. I could be wrong, but I don’t think there was ever an IAD-CUN flight. Nothing international from IAD, as far as I remember.