Dominion301 wrote:

yyz717 wrote:

I'm surprised WS axed the YYZ-LGW route. Perhaps it wasn't making a decent return, or perhaps it just got swallowed up in the strategic retreat to YYC. I doubt it was the former.

I guess we’ll find out in the next couple of months whether or not WS will hold onto their LGW slots or not. Seems kinda strange if they were to give up those valuable assets. I suppose they could retain YYC-LGW and lease out the rest instead of relinquishing.

They could also keep all of them and fly YYT, YHZ and YOW on a 73G, 738 & 7M8 respectively and in the cases of the former and the latter have the transatlantic markets to themselves.

I think one thing is for certain, YVR-LGW is gone.

Why is LGWYVR gone for certain?

346fetish wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

yyz717 wrote:

I'm surprised WS axed the YYZ-LGW route. Perhaps it wasn't making a decent return, or perhaps it just got swallowed up in the strategic retreat to YYC. I doubt it was the former.

I guess we’ll find out in the next couple of months whether or not WS will hold onto their LGW slots or not. Seems kinda strange if they were to give up those valuable assets. I suppose they could retain YYC-LGW and lease out the rest instead of relinquishing.

They could also keep all of them and fly YYT, YHZ and YOW on a 73G, 738 & 7M8 respectively and in the cases of the former and the latter have the transatlantic markets to themselves.

I think one thing is for certain, YVR-LGW is gone.

Why is LGWYVR gone for certain?

They said YYC would be the sole hub for 787 intercontinental flying. Which implies YVR-LGW will get dropped.

hollywoodcory wrote:

346fetish wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

I guess we’ll find out in the next couple of months whether or not WS will hold onto their LGW slots or not. Seems kinda strange if they were to give up those valuable assets. I suppose they could retain YYC-LGW and lease out the rest instead of relinquishing.

They could also keep all of them and fly YYT, YHZ and YOW on a 73G, 738 & 7M8 respectively and in the cases of the former and the latter have the transatlantic markets to themselves.

I think one thing is for certain, YVR-LGW is gone.

Why is LGWYVR gone for certain?

They said YYC would be the sole hub for 787 intercontinental flying. Which implies YVR-LGW will get dropped.

Yep & Vancouver YVR in Western Canada still have flights to London LGW even without WestJet flying it as Summer 2023 British Airways will be doing LGW-YVR-LGW routing up to 6x weekly on BA Boeing 777-200ER plane ✈️.

London Gatwick – Vancouver eff 19MAY23 6 weekly 777-200ER, new route
BA2279 LGW1200 – 1335YVR 777 x2
BA2278 YVR1525 – 0840+1LGW 777 x2
https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220825-bans23inc

YVR to LGW is open for sales for next summer.

QB737 wrote:

YVR to LGW is open for sales for next summer.

Doesn't mean you'll not get a flight change notice routing you via YYC!

YYCFlier wrote:

QB737 wrote:

YVR to LGW is open for sales for next summer.

Doesn't mean you'll not get a flight change notice routing you via YYC!

Yeah based on WS' own press release it wouldn't make sense for YVR-LGW to stay. Well now it's only a matter of a couple of weeks to find out.

YYCFlier wrote:

QB737 wrote:

YVR to LGW is open for sales for next summer.

Doesn't mean you'll not get a flight change notice routing you via YYC!

Yep indeed. Unless they do an about face, which is entirely possible, YVR-LGW is gone. Interesting though that it’s still available for sale for now, but for the few at this point that will have booked it, would be easy to reroute them with zero backtracking.

Seems like they’re going to be flying YYC-LHR/LGW/FCO/BCN/AMS/CDG next summer with no doubt a couple of YYZ turns too. Adding in a bit of slack for IROPs, would there still be room for YVR-LGW with 7 787s?

As reported by CAPA, WS may soon be expanding their codeshare agreement with JAL and add their WS code onto JAL’s YVR-NRT service. Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism , has granted WS the clearance to begin doing so effective OCT 2022.

Let’s see what comes of this positive development.

cirrusdragoon wrote:

As reported by CAPA, WS may soon be expanding their codeshare agreement with JAL and add their WS code onto JAL’s YVR-NRT service. Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism , has granted WS the clearance to begin doing so effective OCT 2022.

Let’s see what comes of this positive development.

So it seems like WS still cares about having an international presence, even with codeshares. There's also still a lot of slack in the 787 schedules for next summer.

Forgive my ignorance, but why did WS make such a shift away from international service and utilization of the 787s? Even if they were to continue focussing on intercontinental travel with the 787s, I'd assume they'd still be useful for YUL/YYZ-YVR/YYC flight pairs, as is the case with AC. Hell, they could probably justify flying them to some sun destinations (Bridgetown, San Jose, maybe even Havana).

Acey wrote:

berari wrote:

When was YEG ever put into consideration for a strong presence?

Pre-Swoop and pre-Flair, the WS operation at YEG was a strong focus city. Denying this is a disservice to YEG, really.

This is why I said "re-establish"... meaning past tense.

A strong focus city that was likely based on low yields and low fares. Swoop = Westjet, just a sub par product that is befitting YEG.

Lamp1009 wrote:

Forgive my ignorance, but why did WS make such a shift away from international service and utilization of the 787s? Even if they were to continue focussing on intercontinental travel with the 787s, I'd assume they'd still be useful for YUL/YYZ-YVR/YYC flight pairs, as is the case with AC. Hell, they could probably justify flying them to some sun destinations (Bridgetown, San Jose, maybe even Havana).

Money. Going back to their “roots”

Each time I’ve been on the YVR-LGW route, Y and PE were full and J close to full so they must have been getting decent revenue. I agree that a lot of people from YVR will not want to connect in YYC and will take AC or BA instead. Seems silly to give up on what appears to be a success for them. I wonder if there is a chance this one route from YVR may stay? They could do it with one aircraft.

jashah wrote:

Each time I’ve been on the YVR-LGW route, Y and PE were full and J close to full so they must have been getting decent revenue. I agree that a lot of people from YVR will not want to connect in YYC and will take AC or BA instead. Seems silly to give up on what appears to be a success for them. I wonder if there is a chance this one route from YVR may stay? They could do it with one aircraft.

I think the problem is having just one 787 at YVR might be too expensive for them, as in they believe concentrating all of the frames at YYC and flying them out of there would be cheaper and make them more money than having just one 787 flight at YVR and the associated extra costs there? Even if the flight does well it might not justify the costs at YVR, whereas they might be just as successful with that frame with a new route out of YYC and with fewer expenses.

IceCream wrote:

jashah wrote:

Each time I’ve been on the YVR-LGW route, Y and PE were full and J close to full so they must have been getting decent revenue. I agree that a lot of people from YVR will not want to connect in YYC and will take AC or BA instead. Seems silly to give up on what appears to be a success for them. I wonder if there is a chance this one route from YVR may stay? They could do it with one aircraft.

I think the problem is having just one 787 at YVR might be too expensive for them, as in they believe concentrating all of the frames at YYC and flying them out of there would be cheaper and make them more money than having just one 787 flight at YVR and the associated extra costs there? Even if the flight does well it might not justify the costs at YVR, whereas they might be just as successful with that frame with a new route out of YYC and with fewer expenses.

Very plausible. Time will tell what cards they have up their sleeve in regards to YVR.

Has the European schedule from Calgary been confirmed?

IceCream wrote:

jashah wrote:

Each time I’ve been on the YVR-LGW route, Y and PE were full and J close to full so they must have been getting decent revenue. I agree that a lot of people from YVR will not want to connect in YYC and will take AC or BA instead. Seems silly to give up on what appears to be a success for them. I wonder if there is a chance this one route from YVR may stay? They could do it with one aircraft.

I think the problem is having just one 787 at YVR might be too expensive for them, as in they believe concentrating all of the frames at YYC and flying them out of there would be cheaper and make them more money than having just one 787 flight at YVR and the associated extra costs there? Even if the flight does well it might not justify the costs at YVR, whereas they might be just as successful with that frame with a new route out of YYC and with fewer expenses.

They could keep YVR-LGW without basing a 789 at YVR by operating an LGW W pattern originating in YYC.

Dominion301 wrote:

They could keep YVR-LGW without basing a 789 at YVR by operating an LGW W pattern originating in YYC.

This is definitely possible - AC does this for YYC with FRA and LHR since it's easy to rotate those to the main hubs. Whether it happens or not depends on what other routes WS intends for the slack in the 789 schedule and whether BA's entry into the market matters.

aviator2000 wrote:

Has the European schedule from Calgary been confirmed?

WestJet is notorious for being the latest airline to release their schedules. S23 should come out in late October.

I think someone else commented about how YVR folks won't stand for a connection in YYC. I beg to differ. There's a lot of fliers (most leisure fliers) who fly on price and if adding a stop in YYC saves $100, they will do it especially if they get free baggage. LGW in summer is leisure and YVR-YYC has very high frequencies. I don't see this being an issue at all - it's not backtracking. Having said that, it would also not be terribly difficult to rotate LGW using a W pattern with YYC either.

YYCFlier wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

They could keep YVR-LGW without basing a 789 at YVR by operating an LGW W pattern originating in YYC.

This is definitely possible - AC does this for YYC with FRA and LHR since it's easy to rotate those to the main hubs. Whether it happens or not depends on what other routes WS intends for the slack in the 789 schedule and whether BA's entry into the market matters.

aviator2000 wrote:

Has the European schedule from Calgary been confirmed?

WestJet is notorious for being the latest airline to release their schedules. S23 should come out in late October.

I think someone else commented about how YVR folks won't stand for a connection in YYC. I beg to differ. There's a lot of fliers (most leisure fliers) who fly on price and if adding a stop in YYC saves $100, they will do it especially if they get free baggage. LGW in summer is leisure and YVR-YYC has very high frequencies. I don't see this being an issue at all - it's not backtracking. Having said that, it would also not be terribly difficult to rotate LGW using a W pattern with YYC either.

They could definitely do YVR-LGW without basing a plane at YVR but that's the only theory I could come up with as to why they'd cut YVR-LGW. I'm most probably wrong lol. And you're right that a decent amount of people in Vancouver have and will connect in YYC to go to Europe because of the price.

YYCFlier wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

They could keep YVR-LGW without basing a 789 at YVR by operating an LGW W pattern originating in YYC.

This is definitely possible - AC does this for YYC with FRA and LHR since it's easy to rotate those to the main hubs. Whether it happens or not depends on what other routes WS intends for the slack in the 789 schedule and whether BA's entry into the market matters.

aviator2000 wrote:

Has the European schedule from Calgary been confirmed?

WestJet is notorious for being the latest airline to release their schedules. S23 should come out in late October.

I think someone else commented about how YVR folks won't stand for a connection in YYC. I beg to differ. There's a lot of fliers (most leisure fliers) who fly on price and if adding a stop in YYC saves $100, they will do it especially if they get free baggage. LGW in summer is leisure and YVR-YYC has very high frequencies. I don't see this being an issue at all - it's not backtracking. Having said that, it would also not be terribly difficult to rotate LGW using a W pattern with YYC either.

This all sounds good until you have AC offering both YVR-LHR and YVR-YYC-LHR. WS will become a marginal player on YVR-LON by not offering a direct flight and offering a connecting flight to the less desirable LGW. With BA entering YVR-LGW while also offering flights to LHR, WS will only fly those passengers at a very low yield.

berari wrote:

Acey wrote:

berari wrote:

When was YEG ever put into consideration for a strong presence?

Pre-Swoop and pre-Flair, the WS operation at YEG was a strong focus city. Denying this is a disservice to YEG, really.

This is why I said "re-establish"... meaning past tense.

A strong focus city that was likely based on low yields and low fares. Swoop = Westjet, just a sub par product that is befitting YEG.

lol

Someone's insecurity at YEG's strong performance showing through here...

YEGFlyer wrote:

berari wrote:

Acey wrote:

Pre-Swoop and pre-Flair, the WS operation at YEG was a strong focus city. Denying this is a disservice to YEG, really.

This is why I said "re-establish"... meaning past tense.

A strong focus city that was likely based on low yields and low fares. Swoop = Westjet, just a sub par product that is befitting YEG.

lol

Someone's insecurity at YEG's strong performance showing through here...

At the end of the day, YEG's demand is more low yielding than places like YVR/YUL/YYZ. You can see this from airline activity in the past few years. AC has pulled out of YMM/YQU/YLW/YWG/YYJ/YQR/YXE from YEG. DL has cut MSP, and UA has cut IAH. At the end of the day, the only airlines really growing at YEG at the moment are ULCC's. YEG of course still has UA service to DEN, KLM to AMS, AC to SFO etc, but growth is clearly in the direction of low-cost carriers.

Hence Swoop is the appropriate airline for the Westjet group to have at YEG. And it's not necessarily a bad thing for YEG at all. Swoop tried out new destinations like YYG and YQM that would have never happened before. Swoop is starting to grow a pretty sizeable network at YEG.

Dominion301 wrote:

IceCream wrote:

jashah wrote:

Each time I’ve been on the YVR-LGW route, Y and PE were full and J close to full so they must have been getting decent revenue. I agree that a lot of people from YVR will not want to connect in YYC and will take AC or BA instead. Seems silly to give up on what appears to be a success for them. I wonder if there is a chance this one route from YVR may stay? They could do it with one aircraft.

I think the problem is having just one 787 at YVR might be too expensive for them, as in they believe concentrating all of the frames at YYC and flying them out of there would be cheaper and make them more money than having just one 787 flight at YVR and the associated extra costs there? Even if the flight does well it might not justify the costs at YVR, whereas they might be just as successful with that frame with a new route out of YYC and with fewer expenses.

They could keep YVR-LGW without basing a 789 at YVR by operating an LGW W pattern originating in YYC.

They do it like that already, there’s no aircraft based in YVR….

YEGFlyer wrote:

berari wrote:

Acey wrote:

Pre-Swoop and pre-Flair, the WS operation at YEG was a strong focus city. Denying this is a disservice to YEG, really.

This is why I said "re-establish"... meaning past tense.

A strong focus city that was likely based on low yields and low fares. Swoop = Westjet, just a sub par product that is befitting YEG.

lol

Someone's insecurity at YEG's strong performance showing through here...

He's wrong in the sense that old YEG was not the Canadian hub of ULCC and low yielding fares.

However, that is quite clearly the case now and it continues to trend in that direction. YEG is strong in metrics that aren't particularly favourable for YEG.

YEG at one time had flights to LHR (CP and AC), AMS on MartinAir, LGW on various airlines over the many years (My travel Airways, Canada 3000, and some others), BER and FRA on Air Transat. The market is there for WS if they wish, but with the hubbing in YYC and YVR, AC and WS chose larger markets for obvious reasons. WS should have never given up on YEG, but they want to build a larger hub...does anyone believe that YYC-BCN is a huge money maker...I don't think so. I don't have the dollar figures, but I am 100% sure that a YEG-LGW would generate more $ than YYC-BCN, especially that these flights would have to rely by and large on connecting passengers.

Looking at loads today, AC carried passengers from YEG through YYC, YVR and YUL to LHR. Oddly enough, none through YYZ.

There weren’t enough passengers to fill 4 rows in economy in a Triple.

I acknowledge that this is merely anecdotal and perhaps Westjet may have a better home town advantage, but I really wonder if the business is there. Air Canada and Westjet have access to numbers of which we can only dream, I have to guess if the numbers supported it, they’d be flying it.

CrewBunk wrote:

Looking at loads today, AC carried passengers from YEG through YYC, YVR and YUL to LHR. Oddly enough, none through YYZ.

There weren’t enough passengers to fill 4 rows in economy in a Triple.

I acknowledge that this is merely anecdotal and perhaps Westjet may have a better home town advantage, but I really wonder if the business is there. Air Canada and Westjet have access to numbers of which we can only dream, I have to guess if the numbers supported it, they’d be flying it.

I feel like its forgotten on everyone that WS did fly YEG-LGW on the 767 (As did AC to LHR before they dropped the route). Both carriers have legacy numbers from their previous operation as a base metric, along with their usual ongoing market research. I believe you are correct that if the number supported it, they would still be there.

Plus, geographically and operationally; it makes much more sense for AC to feed their existing widebody service in YVR/YYC (the same applies for WestJet in YYC), than to send their widebody metal to YEG. YEG to either YVR or YYC is an hour or less flight. YEG is a spoke/focus city surrounded by two major hubs, it just doesn't make sense to split airframes/resources up when you can feed your existing services. The numbers would really have to be in YEGs favor to get their direct flights back, clearly the numbers aren't there yet.

^ so around 40 pax going to LHR through YYC, YVR and YUL on AC metal only. Sounds like a pretty good number, assuming these are O&D what is being referred to.

A significant number of any LHR flight will be connecting traffic. So some random day in shoulder season in October doesn't sound too bad actually.

yegbey01 wrote:

^ so around 40 pax going to LHR through YYC, YVR and YUL on AC metal only. Sounds like a pretty good number, assuming these are O&D what is being referred to.

A significant number of any LHR flight will be connecting traffic. So some random day in shoulder season in October doesn't sound too bad actually.

I don't think that a good number. If you have a small aircraft in the 250 seat range, that means you need to find another 200 passengers through connections into Edmonton to fill the flight.

Thomaas wrote:

YYCFlier wrote:

Dominion301 wrote:

They could keep YVR-LGW without basing a 789 at YVR by operating an LGW W pattern originating in YYC.

This is definitely possible - AC does this for YYC with FRA and LHR since it's easy to rotate those to the main hubs. Whether it happens or not depends on what other routes WS intends for the slack in the 789 schedule and whether BA's entry into the market matters.

aviator2000 wrote:

Has the European schedule from Calgary been confirmed?

WestJet is notorious for being the latest airline to release their schedules. S23 should come out in late October.

I think someone else commented about how YVR folks won't stand for a connection in YYC. I beg to differ. There's a lot of fliers (most leisure fliers) who fly on price and if adding a stop in YYC saves $100, they will do it especially if they get free baggage. LGW in summer is leisure and YVR-YYC has very high frequencies. I don't see this being an issue at all - it's not backtracking. Having said that, it would also not be terribly difficult to rotate LGW using a W pattern with YYC either.

This all sounds good until you have AC offering both YVR-LHR and YVR-YYC-LHR. WS will become a marginal player on YVR-LON by not offering a direct flight and offering a connecting flight to the less desirable LGW. With BA entering YVR-LGW while also offering flights to LHR, WS will only fly those passengers at a very low yield.

Huh? WS can offer connecting flights to LHR

yegbey01 wrote:

^ so around 40 pax going to LHR through YYC, YVR and YUL on AC metal only. Sounds like a pretty good number, assuming these are O&D what is being referred to.

A significant number of any LHR flight will be connecting traffic. So some random day in shoulder season in October doesn't sound too bad actually.

30 pax from YEG to AC flights out of YVR/YYC/YUL is pretty low. Connections onwards are already possible through AMS on KLM so I don't think you could count on connections from LHR at all since AMS has more options and already serves that market. We're looking at 250+ seats that need to be filled for a YEG-LHR flight that's almost all O&D since the vast majority of connections will happen through AC and WS' hubs.

I could see some sort of 1-2x weekly seasonal LGW happening potentially but there isn't much money to really be made, so WS probably thinks it's a lot easier to connect them through YYC with a higher frequency of LON flights anyways.

yegbey01 wrote:

Sounds like a pretty good number, assuming these are O&D what is being referred to.

A significant number of any LHR flight will be connecting traffic. So some random day in shoulder season in October doesn't sound too bad actually.

Except all LHR flights today, YVR, YYZ x3, YUL and YHZ are 95% full, with premium cabins virtually full. Ironically, the only “soft” LHR flight today is YYC with premium cabins 97% full and economy about 65% full.

I can’t tell the individual itinerary of each passenger, so I don’t know if the YEG connections are going beyond LHR or not.

IceCream wrote:

yegbey01 wrote:

^ so around 40 pax going to LHR through YYC, YVR and YUL on AC metal only. Sounds like a pretty good number, assuming these are O&D what is being referred to.

A significant number of any LHR flight will be connecting traffic. So some random day in shoulder season in October doesn't sound too bad actually.

30 pax from YEG to AC flights out of YVR/YYC/YUL is pretty low. Connections onwards are already possible through AMS on KLM so I don't think you could count on connections from LHR at all since AMS has more options and already serves that market. We're looking at 250+ seats that need to be filled for a YEG-LHR flight that's almost all O&D since the vast majority of connections will happen through AC and WS' hubs.

I could see some sort of 1-2x weekly seasonal LGW happening potentially but there isn't much money to really be made, so WS probably thinks it's a lot easier to connect them through YYC with a higher frequency of LON flights anyways.

Old data but YEG-FRA has something like 150k annual traffic (http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/edmonton-airport/). London would be in the same metric. When you launch a nonstop, you also stimulate. Add in LHR connections to that, and there is no doubt that the route is there. Recall that AC was up to 9x weekly YEG-LHR prior to a previous oil crash. Alberta's and Edmonton's economy is now quite a bit larger than it was then, not to mention more diversified, so it is certainly viable. It is a classic example of a route where airlines have other preferences in how they serve the market and other strategic priorities.

Acey wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

berari wrote:

A strong focus city that was likely based on low yields and low fares. Swoop = Westjet, just a sub par product that is befitting YEG.

lol

Someone's insecurity at YEG's strong performance showing through here...

He's wrong in the sense that old YEG was not the Canadian hub of ULCC and low yielding fares.

However, that is quite clearly the case now and it continues to trend in that direction. YEG is strong in metrics that aren't particularly favourable for YEG.

In the past, YEG was a cash cow for WestJet and others (especially AC and northern airlines), due to constant capacity limitation. I agree that has ended in most domestic markets (not all); the market has been blown wide open by new entrants. I see that as a definite advantage to YEG. Frankly, it is about time that things get competitive around here. It is an advantage that other airports have enjoyed for years, which drives passenger growth through lower fares. So far, it has worked out.. YEG now offers more non-stops than before the pandemic - 55 vs 52. YEG and YYZ are the only airports to serve 10 provinces/territories.

I actually think that there is a pretty strong residual customer base in YEG that prefers to fly WestJet due to historical reasons. I don't see this base currently growing. If anything it is shrinking, due to PR by WestJet expressly saying that YEG will be minimized in favour of YYC (something that probably happened in practice before, but was not shoved in people's faces). WS faces a risk of others taking their market share at YEG and other western airports through their YYC-only approach. The simple truth is that people want non-stop flights. People want lots of options. That was the model that WestJet offered that led to its many years of profitability, prior to the current (numerous) strategic u-turns. The business community will lend support to airlines that provide good service to local airports. There is a widespread understanding today that good air service is crucial for economic development. Edmonton is growing fast - last census faster than Calgary, just hitting 1.5m in population now, and private sector is booming with hydrogen, AI, industrial projects and tech startups - the market is good but WS has put themselves in a self-imposed strategic box where they don't want to invest much anywhere outside of YYC. This will mean that WS will weaken over time at YEG (already evident) and other western airports.

YEGFlyer wrote:

Old data but YEG-FRA has something like 150k annual traffic (http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/edmonton-airport/). London would be in the same metric. When you launch a nonstop, you also stimulate. Add in LHR connections to that, and there is no doubt that the route is there. Recall that AC was up to 9x weekly YEG-LHR prior to a previous oil crash. Alberta's and Edmonton's economy is now quite a bit larger than it was then, not to mention more diversified, so it is certainly viable. It is a classic example of a route where airlines have other preferences in how they serve the market and other strategic priorities.

Looking through historical data and schedules, I’m having a hard time finding any era in which AC flew 9 times a week from YEG to LHR. Even going way back to the DC-8 days, I see 5 times a week, but originating in YVR or YYC and routing through YWG or PIK on the way to LHR. I don’t doubt you, I just can’t find it.

When AC stopped flying YEG to LHR they were flying 4 times a week (with plans to reduce to 3 times a week) using a 217 seat 767-300.

As I said, today less than 40 people flew on AC from YEG to LHR. Tomorrow, it’s less than 20. I think it would be a tough sell to get AC to fly their smallest present Atlantic capable aircraft on the route, the 255 seat 787-8.

CrewBunk wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

Old data but YEG-FRA has something like 150k annual traffic (http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/edmonton-airport/). London would be in the same metric. When you launch a nonstop, you also stimulate. Add in LHR connections to that, and there is no doubt that the route is there. Recall that AC was up to 9x weekly YEG-LHR prior to a previous oil crash. Alberta's and Edmonton's economy is now quite a bit larger than it was then, not to mention more diversified, so it is certainly viable. It is a classic example of a route where airlines have other preferences in how they serve the market and other strategic priorities.

Looking through historical data and schedules, I’m having a hard time finding any era in which AC flew 9 times a week from YEG to LHR. Even going way back to the DC-8 days, I see 5 times a week, but originating in YVR or YYC and routing through YWG or PIK on the way to LHR. I don’t doubt you, I just can’t find it.

When AC stopped flying YEG to LHR they were flying 4 times a week (with plans to reduce to 3 times a week) using a 217 seat 767-300.

As I said, today less than 40 people flew on AC from YEG to LHR. Tomorrow, it’s less than 20. I think it would be a tough sell to get AC to fly their smallest present Atlantic capable aircraft on the route, the 255 seat 787-8.

It was planned but didn't go ahead

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... vancouver/

YEGFlyer wrote:

Acey wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

lol

Someone's insecurity at YEG's strong performance showing through here...

He's wrong in the sense that old YEG was not the Canadian hub of ULCC and low yielding fares.

However, that is quite clearly the case now and it continues to trend in that direction. YEG is strong in metrics that aren't particularly favourable for YEG.

In the past, YEG was a cash cow for WestJet and others (especially AC and northern airlines), due to constant capacity limitation. I agree that has ended in most domestic markets (not all); the market has been blown wide open by new entrants. I see that as a definite advantage to YEG. Frankly, it is about time that things get competitive around here. It is an advantage that other airports have enjoyed for years, which drives passenger growth through lower fares. So far, it has worked out.. YEG now offers more non-stops than before the pandemic - 55 vs 52. YEG and YYZ are the only airports to serve 10 provinces/territories.

I actually think that there is a pretty strong residual customer base in YEG that prefers to fly WestJet due to historical reasons. I don't see this base currently growing. If anything it is shrinking, due to PR by WestJet expressly saying that YEG will be minimized in favour of YYC (something that probably happened in practice before, but was not shoved in people's faces). WS faces a risk of others taking their market share at YEG and other western airports through their YYC-only approach. The simple truth is that people want non-stop flights. People want lots of options. That was the model that WestJet offered that led to its many years of profitability, prior to the current (numerous) strategic u-turns. The business community will lend support to airlines that provide good service to local airports. There is a widespread understanding today that good air service is crucial for economic development. Edmonton is growing fast - last census faster than Calgary, just hitting 1.5m in population now, and private sector is booming with hydrogen, AI, industrial projects and tech startups - the market is good but WS has put themselves in a self-imposed strategic box where they don't want to invest much anywhere outside of YYC. This will mean that WS will weaken over time at YEG (already evident) and other western airports.

Any proof that (WS) WestJet is weaken at other Western Canada Airports? But yes in Edmonton YEG WS has been stagnant like AC Air Canada.

Me & my family have no problems using WestJet usually/Air Canada sometimes, when we travel out Edmonton YEG to our travel destinations & even (if) it involves a connection at Vancouver YVR, Calgary YYC or Toronto YYZ Airports .

We recently used (WO) Swoop Airlines YEG-YYZ-YEG during 1 week trip to Eastern Canada & back. It was our for 1st time using Swoop. Had no problems with them either.
Swoop flight 302 YEG - YYZ Friday September 23 & Saturday October 1 YYZ - YEG on Swoop 303,both full flights we were on.

BML87 wrote:

Thomaas wrote:

YYCFlier wrote:

This is definitely possible - AC does this for YYC with FRA and LHR since it's easy to rotate those to the main hubs. Whether it happens or not depends on what other routes WS intends for the slack in the 789 schedule and whether BA's entry into the market matters.


WestJet is notorious for being the latest airline to release their schedules. S23 should come out in late October.

I think someone else commented about how YVR folks won't stand for a connection in YYC. I beg to differ. There's a lot of fliers (most leisure fliers) who fly on price and if adding a stop in YYC saves $100, they will do it especially if they get free baggage. LGW in summer is leisure and YVR-YYC has very high frequencies. I don't see this being an issue at all - it's not backtracking. Having said that, it would also not be terribly difficult to rotate LGW using a W pattern with YYC either.

This all sounds good until you have AC offering both YVR-LHR and YVR-YYC-LHR. WS will become a marginal player on YVR-LON by not offering a direct flight and offering a connecting flight to the less desirable LGW. With BA entering YVR-LGW while also offering flights to LHR, WS will only fly those passengers at a very low yield.

Huh? WS can offer connecting flights to LHR

WS will be operating daily YYC-LHR starting end of the month, 3-4x a week till then

CrewBunk wrote:

As I said, today less than 40 people flew on AC from YEG to LHR. Tomorrow, it’s less than 20. I think it would be a tough sell to get AC to fly their smallest present Atlantic capable aircraft on the route, the 255 seat 787-8.

I was just looking at these numbers today as well. YEGFlyer makes compelling arguments as to why YEG should match YYC for transatlantic capacity, but the numbers don't support it on the AC side, and from the WestJet side they certainly don't either. That's not to say it won't change.

Acey wrote:

CrewBunk wrote:

As I said, today less than 40 people flew on AC from YEG to LHR. Tomorrow, it’s less than 20. I think it would be a tough sell to get AC to fly their smallest present Atlantic capable aircraft on the route, the 255 seat 787-8.

I was just looking at these numbers today as well. YEGFlyer makes compelling arguments as to why YEG should match YYC for transatlantic capacity, but the numbers don't support it on the AC side, and from the WestJet side they certainly don't either. That's not to say it won't change.

The only numbers we can see are the ones who actually flew out of YEG on AC or WS. And, I agree, if I were a network planner at either airline, I’d be reluctant to commit expensive equipment when resources are tight and other routes are sure winners.

What we don’t see though, are the passengers flying KLM through AMS to the rest of Europe western/Southern Asia. It would be a gamble for either AC or WS to assume they’d capture those passengers connecting in LHR. And as KL would be flying them for the entire journey, as opposed to a code-share out of LHR, they could be more flexible on price.

Same thing with those who choose to drive to YYC, it would be hard to track that.

BML87 wrote:

CrewBunk wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

Old data but YEG-FRA has something like 150k annual traffic (http://www.therouteshop.com/profiles/edmonton-airport/). London would be in the same metric. When you launch a nonstop, you also stimulate. Add in LHR connections to that, and there is no doubt that the route is there. Recall that AC was up to 9x weekly YEG-LHR prior to a previous oil crash. Alberta's and Edmonton's economy is now quite a bit larger than it was then, not to mention more diversified, so it is certainly viable. It is a classic example of a route where airlines have other preferences in how they serve the market and other strategic priorities.

Looking through historical data and schedules, I’m having a hard time finding any era in which AC flew 9 times a week from YEG to LHR. Even going way back to the DC-8 days, I see 5 times a week, but originating in YVR or YYC and routing through YWG or PIK on the way to LHR. I don’t doubt you, I just can’t find it.

When AC stopped flying YEG to LHR they were flying 4 times a week (with plans to reduce to 3 times a week) using a 217 seat 767-300.

As I said, today less than 40 people flew on AC from YEG to LHR. Tomorrow, it’s less than 20. I think it would be a tough sell to get AC to fly their smallest present Atlantic capable aircraft on the route, the 255 seat 787-8.

It was planned but didn't go ahead

https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... vancouver/

Thanks, my memory was imperfect.

CrewBunk wrote:

Acey wrote:

CrewBunk wrote:

As I said, today less than 40 people flew on AC from YEG to LHR. Tomorrow, it’s less than 20. I think it would be a tough sell to get AC to fly their smallest present Atlantic capable aircraft on the route, the 255 seat 787-8.

I was just looking at these numbers today as well. YEGFlyer makes compelling arguments as to why YEG should match YYC for transatlantic capacity, but the numbers don't support it on the AC side, and from the WestJet side they certainly don't either. That's not to say it won't change.

The only numbers we can see are the ones who actually flew out of YEG on AC or WS. And, I agree, if I were a network planner at either airline, I’d be reluctant to commit expensive equipment when resources are tight and other routes are sure winners.

What we don’t see though, are the passengers flying KLM through AMS to the rest of Europe western/Southern Asia. It would be a gamble for either AC or WS to assume they’d capture those passengers connecting in LHR. And as KL would be flying them for the entire journey, as opposed to a code-share out of LHR, they could be more flexible on price.

Same thing with those who choose to drive to YYC, it would be hard to track that.

Driving to YYC, US carriers, KLM, I'm not even suggesting a daily flight but there is proven historical and current demand for this route today. Anyways, getting off topic a bit here...

Acey wrote:

YEGFlyer wrote:

berari wrote:

A strong focus city that was likely based on low yields and low fares. Swoop = Westjet, just a sub par product that is befitting YEG.

lol

Someone's insecurity at YEG's strong performance showing through here...

He's wrong in the sense that old YEG was not the Canadian hub of ULCC and low yielding fares.

However, that is quite clearly the case now and it continues to trend in that direction. YEG is strong in metrics that aren't particularly favourable for YEG.

It's not just Swoop. Even Flair has its headquarters at YEG and we see their flights growing there. I chuckled at YEG strong performance.

YEGFlyer wrote:

CrewBunk wrote:

Acey wrote:

I was just looking at these numbers today as well. YEGFlyer makes compelling arguments as to why YEG should match YYC for transatlantic capacity, but the numbers don't support it on the AC side, and from the WestJet side they certainly don't either. That's not to say it won't change.

The only numbers we can see are the ones who actually flew out of YEG on AC or WS. And, I agree, if I were a network planner at either airline, I’d be reluctant to commit expensive equipment when resources are tight and other routes are sure winners.

What we don’t see though, are the passengers flying KLM through AMS to the rest of Europe western/Southern Asia. It would be a gamble for either AC or WS to assume they’d capture those passengers connecting in LHR. And as KL would be flying them for the entire journey, as opposed to a code-share out of LHR, they could be more flexible on price.

Same thing with those who choose to drive to YYC, it would be hard to track that.

Driving to YYC, US carriers, KLM, I'm not even suggesting a daily flight but there is proven historical and current demand for this route today. Anyways, getting off topic a bit here...

It's not just the only driving option for some Edmonton YEG passengers to fly out of Calgary YYC. There's also Alberta based Red Arrow bus company that makes a stop at YYC Airport on YEG - Red Deer -YYC bus routing with up to 3x a day during Monday- Friday & up to 2x during Saturday, Sunday & holidays all by *reservations*.

I have taken the Red Arrow bus route from YEG that departs 8am several times previously to Calgary & it stops at YYC Airport around 11:25 am & I noticed about 15-20 bus passengers got off at the YYC Airport Red Arrow stop.

YEG suffers like YOW in that it's positioned next to YYC and YVR. Every city can't benefit from all the connecting traffic. WS has chosen YYC and AC YVR in general.

yzfElite wrote:

YEG suffers like YOW in that it's positioned next to YYC and YVR. Every city can't benefit from all the connecting traffic. WS has chosen YYC and AC YVR in general.

It’s funny you should say that, as that was my thought as well. Just like YEG, YOW lost its two transatlantic daily flights, LHR and FRA. While the numbers are encouraging for YOW, it seems they won’t see transatlantic service by AC until the A321 XLR arrives.

Like YEG, they suffer from being an easy drive to YUL, or a quick flight to YYZ.

The 217 seat 767-300 was a good size for both YOW and YEG. The next smallest, the 255 seat 787-8 is still a big plane and AC only has 8 of them.

https://westjet.mediaroom.com/2022-10-1 ... ooperation

WestJet and Pacific Coastal Airlines Launch Interline Cooperation

"Today, WestJet and Pacific Coastal Airlines launched a reciprocal interline relationship, the first interline collaboration for Pacific Coastal Airlines. Guests can now purchase a single ticket from either airline for travel involving connecting flights between their networks. Guests will enjoy the confidence of optimized connecting times and the convenience of checking in and receiving boarding passes for all flights at the first point of departure. Guests can now purchase a single ticket from either airline for travel involving connecting flights between their networks through a travel agent."

Not super convenient since you have to go through a travel agent but this is probably nice for the people living in those smaller communities.

CrewBunk wrote:

What we don’t see though, are the passengers flying KLM through AMS to the rest of Europe western/Southern Asia. It would be a gamble for either AC or WS to assume they’d capture those passengers connecting in LHR. And as KL would be flying them for the entire journey, as opposed to a code-share out of LHR, they could be more flexible on price.

When I was at YEG I could see, as a ratio, the number of local vs onward pax on KL's YEG-AMS. It was obviously significant.

IceCream wrote:

Not super convenient since you have to go through a travel agent but this is probably nice for the people living in those smaller communities.

Somewhat interesting to see them strengthening this relationship given the problems with the WestJet Link operation in recent months. Dispatch reliability on the Saabs has been terrible with Encore having to do a lot of flying to cover.

Acey wrote:

When I was at YEG I could see, as a ratio, the number of local vs onward pax on KL's YEG-AMS. It was obviously significant.

KLM has a good reputation and an excellent product connecting through AMS, and still only flies four times a week. I have to imagine if stronger European demand were there, they’d be flying daily.

Any news when S23 schedule will be announced?