Kiwirob wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

Kiwirob wrote:

CPH is the long haul hub, KLM mange to fill multiple daily flights to AMS from Stavanger, Bergen, Alesund, Trondheim & Kristiansand. Rumour has it that they will start flying to Molde next year.

From Molde I can only fly to Oslo with SK and Bergen with WF.

Just so that people understand what we're talking about here, to give some context: Molde is a town of 26,000 inhabitants, with no other towns of size nearby, on the coast, at the end of a fjord, in central Norway. At the end of the next fjord to the south is Ålesund, and to the north, Trondheim. While it still takes several hours to drive to any of those towns, including ferry rides in some cases, it's still valid to ask whether it's reasonable to demand that SAS fly to CPH from every single town of that size? Again, if you live in the middle of nowhere, you can't demand nonstops to the middle of the universe. At least not on purely commercial grounds. If your politicians decide that they want to subsidize a flight, then that would be another issue.

KLM to Molde?? I will be surprised. Don't they really have no other lower hanging fruit to pick?

It takes 60 minutes to drive to Kristiansund and about 80 minutes to drive to Alesund, that's not hours, Molde Kommune has 32,000 people, if you include a 30 minute radius from Molde Årø it's closer to 60,000, bump that to 60 minutes and you could add another 30,000 from Kristiansund, many of whome already drive to Molde to fly with Norwegian. So IMO Molde is not in the middle of nowhere, it's the administrative centre of Møre og Romsdale country.

For KLM a catchment area of 90,000 passengers should be doable for a daily to AMS.

Ultimately once Møre Aksen is completed the next major piece of infrastructure should only be a single airport central to Molde, Alesund and Kristiansund.

I'm still not convinced. As you stated yourself, it's just 90,000 people (there are literally hundreds of unserved (by KLM) urban areas around Europe with way bigger catchment areas than that), out of which many have just a good hour's drive to an airport where KLM already flies to (that's the same as getting to Heathrow from central London by car on a bad day). Why Molde? Why not Kiel? Örebro? Linz? etcetera...

Part of the high propensity to fly in Norway or northern Sweden is because ground transport is slow due to long distances and sometimes mountainous terrain. If there were a fast train from Andalsnes to Oslo that took 4 hours instead of 6 hours... or even if Molde had its own train station... then demand for flights in Molde might be considerably lower.
Flying in Norway and northern Sweden performs much of the role that domestic trains do in France or Germany.

davidjohnson6 wrote:

Part of the high propensity to fly in Norway or northern Sweden is because ground transport is slow due to long distances and sometimes mountainous terrain. If there were a fast train from Andalsnes to Oslo that took 4 hours instead of 6 hours... or even if Molde had its own train station... then demand for flights in Molde might be considerably lower.
Flying in Norway and northern Sweden performs much of the role that domestic trains do in France or Germany.

Absolutely, but it's not that there aren't flights from Molde. You can get to the two biggest towns in Norway, nonstop, several times a day. And get to a bigger airport in 80 minutes' drive. Remember, we're talking a town of 26-30 thousand inhabitants here. So, is it reasonable to demand flights to CPH and AMS, on top of that?...

MalevTU134 wrote:

Kiwirob wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

Just so that people understand what we're talking about here, to give some context: Molde is a town of 26,000 inhabitants, with no other towns of size nearby, on the coast, at the end of a fjord, in central Norway. At the end of the next fjord to the south is Ålesund, and to the north, Trondheim. While it still takes several hours to drive to any of those towns, including ferry rides in some cases, it's still valid to ask whether it's reasonable to demand that SAS fly to CPH from every single town of that size? Again, if you live in the middle of nowhere, you can't demand nonstops to the middle of the universe. At least not on purely commercial grounds. If your politicians decide that they want to subsidize a flight, then that would be another issue.

KLM to Molde?? I will be surprised. Don't they really have no other lower hanging fruit to pick?

It takes 60 minutes to drive to Kristiansund and about 80 minutes to drive to Alesund, that's not hours, Molde Kommune has 32,000 people, if you include a 30 minute radius from Molde Årø it's closer to 60,000, bump that to 60 minutes and you could add another 30,000 from Kristiansund, many of whome already drive to Molde to fly with Norwegian. So IMO Molde is not in the middle of nowhere, it's the administrative centre of Møre og Romsdale country.

For KLM a catchment area of 90,000 passengers should be doable for a daily to AMS.

Ultimately once Møre Aksen is completed the next major piece of infrastructure should only be a single airport central to Molde, Alesund and Kristiansund.

I'm still not convinced. As you stated yourself, it's just 90,000 people (there are literally hundreds of unserved (by KLM) urban areas around Europe with way bigger catchment areas than that), out of which many have just a good hour's drive to an airport where KLM already flies to (that's the same as getting to Heathrow from central London by car on a bad day). Why Molde? Why not Kiel? Örebro? Linz? etcetera...

But as you know Norwegians travel more than most other Europeans.

Kiwirob wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

Kiwirob wrote:

It takes 60 minutes to drive to Kristiansund and about 80 minutes to drive to Alesund, that's not hours, Molde Kommune has 32,000 people, if you include a 30 minute radius from Molde Årø it's closer to 60,000, bump that to 60 minutes and you could add another 30,000 from Kristiansund, many of whome already drive to Molde to fly with Norwegian. So IMO Molde is not in the middle of nowhere, it's the administrative centre of Møre og Romsdale country.

For KLM a catchment area of 90,000 passengers should be doable for a daily to AMS.

Ultimately once Møre Aksen is completed the next major piece of infrastructure should only be a single airport central to Molde, Alesund and Kristiansund.

I'm still not convinced. As you stated yourself, it's just 90,000 people (there are literally hundreds of unserved (by KLM) urban areas around Europe with way bigger catchment areas than that), out of which many have just a good hour's drive to an airport where KLM already flies to (that's the same as getting to Heathrow from central London by car on a bad day). Why Molde? Why not Kiel? Örebro? Linz? etcetera...

But as you know Norwegians travel more than most other Europeans.

They do indeed, but not 3 or 4 times more, internationally, than Germans, Swedes or Austrians, which is the difference to Molde in the populations of the catchment areas of each of those towns I mentioned. And none of them has service to AMS.

Flyr has quietly removed OSL-HAM, that was supposed to start this week

Someone83 wrote:

Flyr has quietly removed OSL-HAM, that was supposed to start this week

I'm going to Hamburg in 3 weeks, leave at 9:25 in the morning, arrive at 17:15, still so many flights missing from the schedule. Returning home is even worse, leave at 07:30 arrive home at 18:30 Pre covid I could get to Hamburg before 12:00

Kiwirob wrote:

Someone83 wrote:

Flyr has quietly removed OSL-HAM, that was supposed to start this week

I'm going to Hamburg in 3 weeks, leave at 9:25 in the morning, arrive at 17:15, still so many flights missing from the schedule. Returning home is even worse, leave at 07:30 arrive home at 18:30 Pre covid I could get to Hamburg before 12:00

I don't know which date you fly, of course, but... Looking at exactly 3 weeks ahead, the 8th of September, Norwegian takes you all the way, leaving Molde at 09:45, arriving Hamburg at 14:05. Total time 4:20. Not too bad, I would say.

SAS is operating a re-configured B737-700 LN-RPJ, apparently for medical repatriation of wounded Ukranians from Rzeszow on the Polish-Ukranian border to hospitals in Western Europe:

- SK7181 B737 LN-RPJ from OSL/CPH/AMS to RZE
- SK7182 B737 LN-RPJ from RZE to FMM, CPH, HAM, AMS etc...

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airc ... j#2d1c2d15

MalevTU134 wrote:

Kiwirob wrote:

Someone83 wrote:

Flyr has quietly removed OSL-HAM, that was supposed to start this week

I'm going to Hamburg in 3 weeks, leave at 9:25 in the morning, arrive at 17:15, still so many flights missing from the schedule. Returning home is even worse, leave at 07:30 arrive home at 18:30 Pre covid I could get to Hamburg before 12:00

I don't know which date you fly, of course, but... Looking at exactly 3 weeks ahead, the 8th of September, Norwegian takes you all the way, leaving Molde at 09:45, arriving Hamburg at 14:05. Total time 4:20. Not too bad, I would say.

Flying on the 5th, my company uses Egencia, the Egencia booking system does not show a flight from Molde to Hamburg on the 5th with Norwegian.

Kiwirob wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

Kiwirob wrote:

I'm going to Hamburg in 3 weeks, leave at 9:25 in the morning, arrive at 17:15, still so many flights missing from the schedule. Returning home is even worse, leave at 07:30 arrive home at 18:30 Pre covid I could get to Hamburg before 12:00

I don't know which date you fly, of course, but... Looking at exactly 3 weeks ahead, the 8th of September, Norwegian takes you all the way, leaving Molde at 09:45, arriving Hamburg at 14:05. Total time 4:20. Not too bad, I would say.

Flying on the 5th, my company uses Egencia, the Egencia booking system does not show a flight from Molde to Hamburg on the 5th with Norwegian.

I see. On the 5th you have Norwegian to Oslo, and Eurowings from there to Hamburg. Leave Molde at 09:45, arrive Hamburg 13:55. Total flying time is 4:10.

MalevTU134 wrote:

TUGMASTER wrote:

my guess……
Faroe Islands..!

Anyone else..?

Yes!!

Suðuroy then, to be more precise?

Sorry for off topic

LucaDiMontanari wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

TUGMASTER wrote:

my guess……
Faroe Islands..!

Anyone else..?

Yes!!

Suðuroy then, to be more precise?

Sorry for off topic

Absolutely!
I guess you've been here?

MalevTU134 wrote:

Kiwirob wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

I don't know which date you fly, of course, but... Looking at exactly 3 weeks ahead, the 8th of September, Norwegian takes you all the way, leaving Molde at 09:45, arriving Hamburg at 14:05. Total time 4:20. Not too bad, I would say.

Flying on the 5th, my company uses Egencia, the Egencia booking system does not show a flight from Molde to Hamburg on the 5th with Norwegian.

I see. On the 5th you have Norwegian to Oslo, and Eurowings from there to Hamburg. Leave Molde at 09:45, arrive Hamburg 13:55. Total flying time is 4:10.

I can find that flight from go to gate.no but not from our travel provider Egencia, i'm not allowed to book outside this system.

I also try to avoid Norwegian as often as I can, they don't like me, they constantly lose my luggage.

Kiwirob wrote:

MalevTU134 wrote:

Kiwirob wrote:

Flying on the 5th, my company uses Egencia, the Egencia booking system does not show a flight from Molde to Hamburg on the 5th with Norwegian.

I see. On the 5th you have Norwegian to Oslo, and Eurowings from there to Hamburg. Leave Molde at 09:45, arrive Hamburg 13:55. Total flying time is 4:10.

I can find that flight from go to gate.no but not from our travel provider Egencia, i'm not allowed to book outside this system.

I also try to avoid Norwegian as often as I can, they don't like me, they constantly lose my luggage.

Sure. My point wasn't to play travel agent, but rather to point out that not even a small town like Molde is disconnected from the outer world even without having flights to CPH or AMS, as discussed above, but rather, you can actually get to many European destinations in a reasonable amount of time.
Have pleasant flights!

Will SK ever restart ARN-TMP/TKU/VAA?

Icelandair is extending KEF-RDU to year-round without reducing frequencies, great signs for a newly started route:

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/ne ... eland.html

SRQKEF wrote:

Icelandair is extending KEF-RDU to year-round without reducing frequencies, great signs for a newly started route:

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/ne ... eland.html

In other similar news, KEF-PDX will also be extended to year-round as it was pre-Covid.

SRQKEF wrote:

Icelandair is extending KEF-RDU to year-round without reducing frequencies, great signs for a newly started route:

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/ne ... eland.html

I didn't even know they launched RDU! When did that happen? What frequencies are they using? From the picture in the article I see they are using a MAX, maybe next summer they increase it to 752.

I suppose weak Euro helped in stimulating demand.

Blerg wrote:

SRQKEF wrote:

Icelandair is extending KEF-RDU to year-round without reducing frequencies, great signs for a newly started route:

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/ne ... eland.html

I didn't even know they launched RDU! When did that happen? What frequencies are they using? From the picture in the article I see they are using a MAX, maybe next summer they increase it to 752.

I suppose weak Euro helped in stimulating demand.

4x weekly, believe it started in May? At least that what initially announced

Someone83 wrote:

Blerg wrote:

SRQKEF wrote:

Icelandair is extending KEF-RDU to year-round without reducing frequencies, great signs for a newly started route:

https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/ne ... eland.html

I didn't even know they launched RDU! When did that happen? What frequencies are they using? From the picture in the article I see they are using a MAX, maybe next summer they increase it to 752.

I suppose weak Euro helped in stimulating demand.

4x weekly, believe it started in May? At least that what initially announced

Yes, 4x weekly from mid-May. Initially only on the MAX8, but it has often seen the MAX9 recently.

SRQKEF wrote:

Someone83 wrote:

Blerg wrote:

I didn't even know they launched RDU! When did that happen? What frequencies are they using? From the picture in the article I see they are using a MAX, maybe next summer they increase it to 752.

I suppose weak Euro helped in stimulating demand.

4x weekly, believe it started in May? At least that what initially announced

Yes, 4x weekly from mid-May. Initially only on the MAX8, but it has often seen the MAX9 recently.

Both of you thanks. I wonder what the most popular routes are from RDU. Interesting how they succeeded here yet they struggled in MCO from what I remember.

Blerg wrote:

SRQKEF wrote:

Someone83 wrote:

4x weekly, believe it started in May? At least that what initially announced

Yes, 4x weekly from mid-May. Initially only on the MAX8, but it has often seen the MAX9 recently.

Both of you thanks. I wonder what the most popular routes are from RDU. Interesting how they succeeded here yet they struggled in MCO from what I remember.

MCO has always been very seasonal and is by far the O&D heaviest North American route in FI’s system. It’s coming back next month and stays until late May, with the peak season having daily 757s and even the occasional 767.

SRQKEF wrote:

Blerg wrote:

SRQKEF wrote:

Yes, 4x weekly from mid-May. Initially only on the MAX8, but it has often seen the MAX9 recently.

Both of you thanks. I wonder what the most popular routes are from RDU. Interesting how they succeeded here yet they struggled in MCO from what I remember.

MCO has always been very seasonal and is by far the O&D heaviest North American route in FI’s system. It’s coming back next month and stays until late May, with the peak season having daily 757s and even the occasional 767.

When you write O&D are you referring to an Icelandic community living there or are there a lot of locals heading to Iceland?

What kind of onboard product does FI have these days? Is it buy on board?

Blerg wrote:

SRQKEF wrote:

Blerg wrote:

Both of you thanks. I wonder what the most popular routes are from RDU. Interesting how they succeeded here yet they struggled in MCO from what I remember.

MCO has always been very seasonal and is by far the O&D heaviest North American route in FI’s system. It’s coming back next month and stays until late May, with the peak season having daily 757s and even the occasional 767.

When you write O&D are you referring to an Icelandic community living there or are there a lot of locals heading to Iceland?

What kind of onboard product does FI have these days? Is it buy on board?

Icelandic snowbirds largely go to Florida or Tenerife, so MCO flights are mostly filled with Icelandic retirees or holidayers. However, from what I've seen in recent years the traffic mix has been shifting from 95+% Icelanders going to Florida to a 70/30 mix or so with Floridians going to Iceland making up the 30%.

Oh, and by O&D I mean that it has the lowest proportion of connecting passengers from/to the European mainland, as in pax are travelling nonstop KEF-MCO.

BangersAndMash wrote:

Well BRA is nothing if not ambitious. As well as the A319s coming on property shortly to fly for Ving, it seems they're planning to double their ATR fleet from 12 to 24 aircraft (posted on Aerotelegraph - in German).

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/bra-will-auch-atr-flotte-kraeftig-ausbauen

I wonder if that means they'll be flying some of these from Arlanda to add to the Bromma operation.

This is actually incredibly interesting news, just maybe not for the reasons that at first seem apparent.

Another piece of news (that may not have been reported here, but has been reported (in Finnish) on lentoposti.fi) is that Patria, a Finnish aviation equipment/flight school provider, had agreed to begin a training program for the Estonian Xfly for A320 series type certification. According to the article, Xfly in the future expects to have a fleet of A320 series of up to 10 planes.

Now, Finnair's long-term strategy seems to be in trash. Heavy cost-cutting measures (as much as I hate it) are called for once again.

Norra's ATR fleet consists of 12 planes.

Finnair's active fleet of both A319 or A320 is under 10 examples.

Now, this is just some wild speculation, but I wouldn't be immensely surprised if in the next month or two AY would announce some extensive cost-cutting/shrinking measures, and both BRA & Xfly would form some part of it.

Once again, I wouldn't wish for this to happen, but these are just my speculations & observations.

Blerg wrote:

When you write O&D are you referring to an Icelandic community living there or are there a lot of locals heading to Iceland?

I'm not an expert of Iceland, but to me the seasonality screams Icelanders visiting the Disney World.

EFHK wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

Well BRA is nothing if not ambitious. As well as the A319s coming on property shortly to fly for Ving, it seems they're planning to double their ATR fleet from 12 to 24 aircraft (posted on Aerotelegraph - in German).

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/bra-will-auch-atr-flotte-kraeftig-ausbauen

I wonder if that means they'll be flying some of these from Arlanda to add to the Bromma operation.

This is actually incredibly interesting news, just maybe not for the reasons that at first seem apparent.

Another piece of news (that may not have been reported here, but has been reported (in Finnish) on lentoposti.fi) is that Patria, a Finnish aviation equipment/flight school provider, had agreed to begin a training program for the Estonian Xfly for A320 series type certification. According to the article, Xfly in the future expects to have a fleet of A320 series of up to 10 planes.

Now, Finnair's long-term strategy seems to be in trash. Heavy cost-cutting measures (as much as I hate it) are called for once again.

Norra's ATR fleet consists of 12 planes.

Finnair's active fleet of both A319 or A320 is under 10 examples.

Now, this is just some wild speculation, but I wouldn't be immensely surprised if in the next month or two AY would announce some extensive cost-cutting/shrinking measures, and both BRA & Xfly would form some part of it.

Once again, I wouldn't wish for this to happen, but these are just my speculations & observations.

Blerg wrote:

When you write O&D are you referring to an Icelandic community living there or are there a lot of locals heading to Iceland?

I'm not an expert of Iceland, but to me the seasonality screams Icelanders visiting the Disney World.

Ooops... my bad. I didn't mean to write MCO but rather STL! Sorry.
From what I remember they struggled in MCO after they launched it.

Blerg wrote:

EFHK wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

Well BRA is nothing if not ambitious. As well as the A319s coming on property shortly to fly for Ving, it seems they're planning to double their ATR fleet from 12 to 24 aircraft (posted on Aerotelegraph - in German).

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/bra-will-auch-atr-flotte-kraeftig-ausbauen

I wonder if that means they'll be flying some of these from Arlanda to add to the Bromma operation.

This is actually incredibly interesting news, just maybe not for the reasons that at first seem apparent.

Another piece of news (that may not have been reported here, but has been reported (in Finnish) on lentoposti.fi) is that Patria, a Finnish aviation equipment/flight school provider, had agreed to begin a training program for the Estonian Xfly for A320 series type certification. According to the article, Xfly in the future expects to have a fleet of A320 series of up to 10 planes.

Now, Finnair's long-term strategy seems to be in trash. Heavy cost-cutting measures (as much as I hate it) are called for once again.

Norra's ATR fleet consists of 12 planes.

Finnair's active fleet of both A319 or A320 is under 10 examples.

Now, this is just some wild speculation, but I wouldn't be immensely surprised if in the next month or two AY would announce some extensive cost-cutting/shrinking measures, and both BRA & Xfly would form some part of it.

Once again, I wouldn't wish for this to happen, but these are just my speculations & observations.

Blerg wrote:

When you write O&D are you referring to an Icelandic community living there or are there a lot of locals heading to Iceland?

I'm not an expert of Iceland, but to me the seasonality screams Icelanders visiting the Disney World.

Ooops... my bad. I didn't mean to write MCO but rather STL! Sorry.
From what I remember they struggled in MCO after they launched it.

Ah! Well, it was only WOW who launched STL. FI did CLE and MCI during that same period, which was pulled because of the MAX groundings rather than performance per se. Hopefully we’ll see those routes back now that the network is gaining strength!

SRQKEF wrote:

Blerg wrote:

EFHK wrote:

This is actually incredibly interesting news, just maybe not for the reasons that at first seem apparent.

Another piece of news (that may not have been reported here, but has been reported (in Finnish) on lentoposti.fi) is that Patria, a Finnish aviation equipment/flight school provider, had agreed to begin a training program for the Estonian Xfly for A320 series type certification. According to the article, Xfly in the future expects to have a fleet of A320 series of up to 10 planes.

Now, Finnair's long-term strategy seems to be in trash. Heavy cost-cutting measures (as much as I hate it) are called for once again.

Norra's ATR fleet consists of 12 planes.

Finnair's active fleet of both A319 or A320 is under 10 examples.

Now, this is just some wild speculation, but I wouldn't be immensely surprised if in the next month or two AY would announce some extensive cost-cutting/shrinking measures, and both BRA & Xfly would form some part of it.

Once again, I wouldn't wish for this to happen, but these are just my speculations & observations.



I'm not an expert of Iceland, but to me the seasonality screams Icelanders visiting the Disney World.

Ooops... my bad. I didn't mean to write MCO but rather STL! Sorry.
From what I remember they struggled in MCO after they launched it.

Ah! Well, it was only WOW who launched STL. FI did CLE and MCI during that same period, which was pulled because of the MAX groundings rather than performance per se. Hopefully we’ll see those routes back now that the network is gaining strength!

I wonder why they decided to launch RDU but not bring back MCI and CLE. Would love to know their reasoning. Maybe they don't have enough MAX planes right now and the 752 might still be too big for some European markets.

EFHK wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

Well BRA is nothing if not ambitious. As well as the A319s coming on property shortly to fly for Ving, it seems they're planning to double their ATR fleet from 12 to 24 aircraft (posted on Aerotelegraph - in German).

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/bra-will-auch-atr-flotte-kraeftig-ausbauen

I wonder if that means they'll be flying some of these from Arlanda to add to the Bromma operation.

This is actually incredibly interesting news, just maybe not for the reasons that at first seem apparent.

Another piece of news (that may not have been reported here, but has been reported (in Finnish) on lentoposti.fi) is that Patria, a Finnish aviation equipment/flight school provider, had agreed to begin a training program for the Estonian Xfly for A320 series type certification. According to the article, Xfly in the future expects to have a fleet of A320 series of up to 10 planes.

Now, Finnair's long-term strategy seems to be in trash. Heavy cost-cutting measures (as much as I hate it) are called for once again.

Norra's ATR fleet consists of 12 planes.

Finnair's active fleet of both A319 or A320 is under 10 examples.

Now, this is just some wild speculation, but I wouldn't be immensely surprised if in the next month or two AY would announce some extensive cost-cutting/shrinking measures, and both BRA & Xfly would form some part of it.

Once again, I wouldn't wish for this to happen, but these are just my speculations & observations.

I'm less pessimistic than you.

Sure the Europe-Asia strategy is in tatters, and it's going to take time to build it back, if that ever happens.

But AY still has a lot of strength. For starters, it's part of the OW TATL JV (unlike SK in Star) and that will serve it well. It has got a well developed network in the Nordics and Germany in particular which will serve it well too. HEL is a strong hub, with relatively low LCC penetration. And its geography is still as good as it ever was. What they need to do is pivot to the West and continue to build their presence in Sweden and Norway, and leverage the partnerships with BRA and Wideroe to full effect.

BangersAndMash wrote:

EFHK wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

Well BRA is nothing if not ambitious. As well as the A319s coming on property shortly to fly for Ving, it seems they're planning to double their ATR fleet from 12 to 24 aircraft (posted on Aerotelegraph - in German).

https://www.aerotelegraph.com/bra-will-auch-atr-flotte-kraeftig-ausbauen

I wonder if that means they'll be flying some of these from Arlanda to add to the Bromma operation.

This is actually incredibly interesting news, just maybe not for the reasons that at first seem apparent.

Another piece of news (that may not have been reported here, but has been reported (in Finnish) on lentoposti.fi) is that Patria, a Finnish aviation equipment/flight school provider, had agreed to begin a training program for the Estonian Xfly for A320 series type certification. According to the article, Xfly in the future expects to have a fleet of A320 series of up to 10 planes.

Now, Finnair's long-term strategy seems to be in trash. Heavy cost-cutting measures (as much as I hate it) are called for once again.

Norra's ATR fleet consists of 12 planes.

Finnair's active fleet of both A319 or A320 is under 10 examples.

Now, this is just some wild speculation, but I wouldn't be immensely surprised if in the next month or two AY would announce some extensive cost-cutting/shrinking measures, and both BRA & Xfly would form some part of it.

Once again, I wouldn't wish for this to happen, but these are just my speculations & observations.

I'm less pessimistic than you.

Sure the Europe-Asia strategy is in tatters, and it's going to take time to build it back, if that ever happens.

But AY still has a lot of strength. For starters, it's part of the OW TATL JV (unlike SK in Star) and that will serve it well. It has got a well developed network in the Nordics and Germany in particular which will serve it well too. HEL is a strong hub, with relatively low LCC penetration. And its geography is still as good as it ever was. What they need to do is pivot to the West and continue to build their presence in Sweden and Norway, and leverage the partnerships with BRA and Wideroe to full effect.

But the hub and geography is not a strong position for going west. It was for going east, not west. Sure they could continue their US-expansion, but this has no competitive edge compare to every other network airline in Europe. The US strategy is a short term cashflow gap-filler, until either Asia opens up (very unlikely) or fleet reduction. There is just no economic reason AY to be able to succeed in the west/US network, where the competition is too intensive, and have no geographic edge.

In short: AY is dependent on Asia markets opening and Russian overflying rights.

minilinde wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

EFHK wrote:

This is actually incredibly interesting news, just maybe not for the reasons that at first seem apparent.

Another piece of news (that may not have been reported here, but has been reported (in Finnish) on lentoposti.fi) is that Patria, a Finnish aviation equipment/flight school provider, had agreed to begin a training program for the Estonian Xfly for A320 series type certification. According to the article, Xfly in the future expects to have a fleet of A320 series of up to 10 planes.

Now, Finnair's long-term strategy seems to be in trash. Heavy cost-cutting measures (as much as I hate it) are called for once again.

Norra's ATR fleet consists of 12 planes.

Finnair's active fleet of both A319 or A320 is under 10 examples.

Now, this is just some wild speculation, but I wouldn't be immensely surprised if in the next month or two AY would announce some extensive cost-cutting/shrinking measures, and both BRA & Xfly would form some part of it.

Once again, I wouldn't wish for this to happen, but these are just my speculations & observations.

I'm less pessimistic than you.

Sure the Europe-Asia strategy is in tatters, and it's going to take time to build it back, if that ever happens.

But AY still has a lot of strength. For starters, it's part of the OW TATL JV (unlike SK in Star) and that will serve it well. It has got a well developed network in the Nordics and Germany in particular which will serve it well too. HEL is a strong hub, with relatively low LCC penetration. And its geography is still as good as it ever was. What they need to do is pivot to the West and continue to build their presence in Sweden and Norway, and leverage the partnerships with BRA and Wideroe to full effect.

But the hub and geography is not a strong position for going west. It was for going east, not west. Sure they could continue their US-expansion, but this has no competitive edge compare to every other network airline in Europe. The US strategy is a short term cashflow gap-filler, until either Asia opens up (very unlikely) or fleet reduction. There is just no economic reason AY to be able to succeed in the west/US network, where the competition is too intensive, and have no geographic edge.

In short: AY is dependent on Asia markets opening and Russian overflying rights.

The fact you propose to go west is proof that their hub is not in such a great location. AY used to get thousands of transfers coming from the east and all of these are now gone. On top of that, we are slowly seeing Chinese carriers resume European flights. The past month Chines re-established air links with BCN, BRU, BEG, BUD, BER... in other words, China is slowly preparing itself for the opening and AY won't profit to the full extent.

Friday night is usually a strong time in the week for flights. Last night AY had departures to these destinations: Kuopio, Tallinn, Oulu, Turku, Vaasa, Singapore and Bangkok. Basically regional destinations on regional planes plus two long-haul flights. These are not enough to fill all those A320 family planes Finnair keeps on sending all around Europe.

For comparison's sake, airBaltic which is just down the road had the following: Tbilisi, Vilnius, Tallinn, Helsinki, Tampere, Turku and Palanga.

According to the link below, HEL reached 63% of its June 2019 numbers. I might be wrong but that is well below the European average.
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/n ... y-in-june/

minilinde wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

EFHK wrote:

This is actually incredibly interesting news, just maybe not for the reasons that at first seem apparent.

Another piece of news (that may not have been reported here, but has been reported (in Finnish) on lentoposti.fi) is that Patria, a Finnish aviation equipment/flight school provider, had agreed to begin a training program for the Estonian Xfly for A320 series type certification. According to the article, Xfly in the future expects to have a fleet of A320 series of up to 10 planes.

Now, Finnair's long-term strategy seems to be in trash. Heavy cost-cutting measures (as much as I hate it) are called for once again.

Norra's ATR fleet consists of 12 planes.

Finnair's active fleet of both A319 or A320 is under 10 examples.

Now, this is just some wild speculation, but I wouldn't be immensely surprised if in the next month or two AY would announce some extensive cost-cutting/shrinking measures, and both BRA & Xfly would form some part of it.

Once again, I wouldn't wish for this to happen, but these are just my speculations & observations.

I'm less pessimistic than you.

Sure the Europe-Asia strategy is in tatters, and it's going to take time to build it back, if that ever happens.

But AY still has a lot of strength. For starters, it's part of the OW TATL JV (unlike SK in Star) and that will serve it well. It has got a well developed network in the Nordics and Germany in particular which will serve it well too. HEL is a strong hub, with relatively low LCC penetration. And its geography is still as good as it ever was. What they need to do is pivot to the West and continue to build their presence in Sweden and Norway, and leverage the partnerships with BRA and Wideroe to full effect.

But the hub and geography is not a strong position for going west. It was for going east, not west. Sure they could continue their US-expansion, but this has no competitive edge compare to every other network airline in Europe. The US strategy is a short term cashflow gap-filler, until either Asia opens up (very unlikely) or fleet reduction. There is just no economic reason AY to be able to succeed in the west/US network, where the competition is too intensive, and have no geographic edge.

In short: AY is dependent on Asia markets opening and Russian overflying rights.

Couple of things:

The earth is a ball. The shortest way is always through the poles, whether you go East or West. The furthest you head on the opposite side, the bigger the advantage. The US East Coast is relatively closer compared to East Asia so the advantage is not so great there. But fly to LAX/SFO/SEA/YVR and it's still there. The sweet spot is with routes that fit nicely in a 24h cycle to maximise utilisation.

- HEL is very well planned for connections. I don't know many airports anywhere where you can do a 30mn transfer and luggage will follow. I should know, I've experienced it. That's a strategic advantage for you.
- They're bulking up in the Nordics and becoming an/the most attractive option in a lot of markets there (partly thanks to SK being not as strong as they should be, as others have posted upthread). Their market presence in Germany is impressive too (AY is probably the only OW member who managed to make any use of Air Berlin, otherwise the most pointless Oneworld member ever). Another strategic advantage for you.
- And AY's product and value for money positioning are sound. One of the best European airlines in my book. Yet another strategic advantage.
AY is perfectly capable of holding its own in a competitive marketplace.

Is there going to be an adjustment? Sure. Do they need a replacement strategy? Sure. Is it all doom and gloom? No. They're not SK!

BangersAndMash wrote:

minilinde wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

I'm less pessimistic than you.

Sure the Europe-Asia strategy is in tatters, and it's going to take time to build it back, if that ever happens.

But AY still has a lot of strength. For starters, it's part of the OW TATL JV (unlike SK in Star) and that will serve it well. It has got a well developed network in the Nordics and Germany in particular which will serve it well too. HEL is a strong hub, with relatively low LCC penetration. And its geography is still as good as it ever was. What they need to do is pivot to the West and continue to build their presence in Sweden and Norway, and leverage the partnerships with BRA and Wideroe to full effect.

But the hub and geography is not a strong position for going west. It was for going east, not west. Sure they could continue their US-expansion, but this has no competitive edge compare to every other network airline in Europe. The US strategy is a short term cashflow gap-filler, until either Asia opens up (very unlikely) or fleet reduction. There is just no economic reason AY to be able to succeed in the west/US network, where the competition is too intensive, and have no geographic edge.

In short: AY is dependent on Asia markets opening and Russian overflying rights.

Couple of things:

The earth is a ball. The shortest way is always through the poles, whether you go East or West. The furthest you head on the opposite side, the bigger the advantage. The US East Coast is relatively closer compared to East Asia so the advantage is not so great there. But fly to LAX/SFO/SEA/YVR and it's still there. The sweet spot is with routes that fit nicely in a 24h cycle to maximise utilisation.

- HEL is very well planned for connections. I don't know many airports anywhere where you can do a 30mn transfer and luggage will follow. I should know, I've experienced it. That's a strategic advantage for you.
- They're bulking up in the Nordics and becoming an/the most attractive option in a lot of markets there (partly thanks to SK being not as strong as they should be, as others have posted upthread). Their market presence in Germany is impressive too (AY is probably the only OW member who managed to make any use of Air Berlin, otherwise the most pointless Oneworld member ever). Another strategic advantage for you.
- And AY's product and value for money positioning are sound. One of the best European airlines in my book. Yet another strategic advantage.
AY is perfectly capable of holding its own in a competitive marketplace.

Is there going to be an adjustment? Sure. Do they need a replacement strategy? Sure. Is it all doom and gloom? No. They're not SK!

It might not be all doom and gloom but they are not swimming in cash. According to the link below, Finnair lost €84 million in Q2 2022. Apparently geopolitical changes are affecting them quite a bit ... despite these polar routes and German market presence you speak of.

https://english.news.cn/20220720/d2ace7 ... ast%20year.

Blerg wrote:

minilinde wrote:

BangersAndMash wrote:

I'm less pessimistic than you.

Sure the Europe-Asia strategy is in tatters, and it's going to take time to build it back, if that ever happens.

But AY still has a lot of strength. For starters, it's part of the OW TATL JV (unlike SK in Star) and that will serve it well. It has got a well developed network in the Nordics and Germany in particular which will serve it well too. HEL is a strong hub, with relatively low LCC penetration. And its geography is still as good as it ever was. What they need to do is pivot to the West and continue to build their presence in Sweden and Norway, and leverage the partnerships with BRA and Wideroe to full effect.

But the hub and geography is not a strong position for going west. It was for going east, not west. Sure they could continue their US-expansion, but this has no competitive edge compare to every other network airline in Europe. The US strategy is a short term cashflow gap-filler, until either Asia opens up (very unlikely) or fleet reduction. There is just no economic reason AY to be able to succeed in the west/US network, where the competition is too intensive, and have no geographic edge.

In short: AY is dependent on Asia markets opening and Russian overflying rights.

The fact you propose to go west is proof that their hub is not in such a great location. AY used to get thousands of transfers coming from the east and all of these are now gone. On top of that, we are slowly seeing Chinese carriers resume European flights. The past month Chines re-established air links with BCN, BRU, BEG, BUD, BER... in other words, China is slowly preparing itself for the opening and AY won't profit to the full extent.

Friday night is usually a strong time in the week for flights. Last night AY had departures to these destinations: Kuopio, Tallinn, Oulu, Turku, Vaasa, Singapore and Bangkok. Basically regional destinations on regional planes plus two long-haul flights. These are not enough to fill all those A320 family planes Finnair keeps on sending all around Europe.

For comparison's sake, airBaltic which is just down the road had the following: Tbilisi, Vilnius, Tallinn, Helsinki, Tampere, Turku and Palanga.

According to the link below, HEL reached 63% of its June 2019 numbers. I might be wrong but that is well below the European average.
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/n ... y-in-june/

China and Japan, AY's 2 largest markets, are still largely closed due to Covid, so that's not exactly a surprise. This will improve somewhat as they reopen, irrespective of the Russia situation. Ditto for the financials. Of course, not all will come back. They will need to replace the lost traffic.

BangersAndMash wrote:

Blerg wrote:

minilinde wrote:

But the hub and geography is not a strong position for going west. It was for going east, not west. Sure they could continue their US-expansion, but this has no competitive edge compare to every other network airline in Europe. The US strategy is a short term cashflow gap-filler, until either Asia opens up (very unlikely) or fleet reduction. There is just no economic reason AY to be able to succeed in the west/US network, where the competition is too intensive, and have no geographic edge.

In short: AY is dependent on Asia markets opening and Russian overflying rights.

The fact you propose to go west is proof that their hub is not in such a great location. AY used to get thousands of transfers coming from the east and all of these are now gone. On top of that, we are slowly seeing Chinese carriers resume European flights. The past month Chines re-established air links with BCN, BRU, BEG, BUD, BER... in other words, China is slowly preparing itself for the opening and AY won't profit to the full extent.

Friday night is usually a strong time in the week for flights. Last night AY had departures to these destinations: Kuopio, Tallinn, Oulu, Turku, Vaasa, Singapore and Bangkok. Basically regional destinations on regional planes plus two long-haul flights. These are not enough to fill all those A320 family planes Finnair keeps on sending all around Europe.

For comparison's sake, airBaltic which is just down the road had the following: Tbilisi, Vilnius, Tallinn, Helsinki, Tampere, Turku and Palanga.

According to the link below, HEL reached 63% of its June 2019 numbers. I might be wrong but that is well below the European average.
https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/n ... y-in-june/

China and Japan, AY's 2 largest markets, are still largely closed due to Covid, so that's not exactly a surprise. This will improve somewhat as they reopen, irrespective of the Russia situation. Ditto for the financials. Of course, not all will come back. They will need to replace the lost traffic.

Well even if they open I doubt it will change much. Don't forget that AY stated that one of the reasons why their finances worsened is because of longer flights. Markets in Asia might start opening but reaching them will still be an issue especially since Chinese carriers as well as TK have no problem overflying Russia.

If this situation continues and if AY does not find a way to improve its finances then we might see the end of HEL as a relevant hub that connects Europe and Asia.

Finnair as Finnish economy will be dead soon if the insanity will continue. The region also Baltic states) basically will have a North Korea on steroids on its East borders. Worst place to be in an open economic world.

Kikko19 wrote:

Finnair as Finnish economy will be dead soon if the insanity will continue. The region also Baltic states) basically will have a North Korea on steroids on its East borders. Worst place to be in an open economic world.

I don't know why should Finnair and the Finnish economy die. Finnair will definitely have to change its strategy but it does not mean it's going to disappear. They can open another hub anywhere else in the EU, focus more on point-to-point traffic to/from Finnland (there's not much of a competition in their home market) or/and they can wet-lease part of their fleet to someone else, etc. They just must not give up.

LUKAS10 wrote:

Kikko19 wrote:

Finnair as Finnish economy will be dead soon if the insanity will continue. The region also Baltic states) basically will have a North Korea on steroids on its East borders. Worst place to be in an open economic world.

I don't know why should Finnair and the Finnish economy die. Finnair will definitely have to change its strategy but it does not mean it's going to disappear. They can open another hub anywhere else in the EU, focus more on point-to-point traffic to/from Finnland (there's not much of a competition in their home market) or/and they can wet-lease part of their fleet to someone else, etc. They just must not give up.

They'll enter someone's else niche. Do you really think with their overhead costs they would survive?

Kikko19 wrote:

Finnair as Finnish economy will be dead soon if the insanity will continue. The region also Baltic states) basically will have a North Korea on steroids on its East borders. Worst place to be in an open economic world.

RUS is free to stop all this insanity, any day they want.

Don't worry, Finland will be just fine. It's clear the Finnish govt will not bow to East the ease Finnair's situation, naturally that's not an option. Instead of worrying for FIN, I would be really worried for RUS aviation, economy and especially for RUS people. Hopefully one day things will change, but that's up to the Russians.

MareBorealis wrote:

Kikko19 wrote:

Finnair as Finnish economy will be dead soon if the insanity will continue. The region also Baltic states) basically will have a North Korea on steroids on its East borders. Worst place to be in an open economic world.

RUS is free to stop all this insanity, any day they want.

Don't worry, Finland will be just fine. It's clear the Finnish govt will not bow to East the ease Finnair's situation, naturally that's not an option. Instead of worrying for FIN, I would be really worried for RUS aviation, economy and especially for RUS people. Hopefully one day things will change, but that's up to the Russians.

Hopefully this situation will end ASAP. the difference between us and Russia is that they don't give much s about to live with the minimum needed. Westerners instead want to everything top notch. They are not giving up even if it means they ll have to go back 2 centuries. Are we ready for that? US of course is not in the same situation having all needed resources. I speak strictly about Europe. Airlines will suffer as well if this madness won't end

Linköping's new runway is finished

https://www.aviation24.be/airports/link ... one-month/

Emirates to keep on sending the B777 to CPH this winter instead of the A380 it initially planned.

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/220812-eknw22

Kikko19 wrote:

Finnair as Finnish economy will be dead soon if the insanity will continue. The region also Baltic states) basically will have a North Korea on steroids on its East borders. Worst place to be in an open economic world.

Well, we will see what AY plans for this winter which will be very difficult for the airline especially since they posted atrocious Q2 financial results. Let's see if the EU will strict with state aid towards Finnair as they were with Malev, Cyprus Airways and so on.

Blerg wrote:

Kikko19 wrote:

Finnair as Finnish economy will be dead soon if the insanity will continue. The region also Baltic states) basically will have a North Korea on steroids on its East borders. Worst place to be in an open economic world.

Well, we will see what AY plans for this winter which will be very difficult for the airline especially since they posted atrocious Q2 financial results. Let's see if the EU will strict with state aid towards Finnair as they were with Malev, Cyprus Airways and so on.

Without reopening of Russian airspace they will have no plan that any other airline cannot do (regional airline like BT, SK or ULCC) with lower costs. I really hope the situation will get better soon for them and for other businesses and people first

The problems that Finnair has with Russia are not just for Finnair. Finland has a long border with Russia and cross-border trade has been significant for decades. A decline will affect the wider Finnish economy in a meaningful way

davidjohnson6 wrote:

The problems that Finnair has with Russia are not just for Finnair. Finland has a long border with Russia and cross-border trade has been significant for decades. A decline will affect the wider Finnish economy in a meaningful way

Actually the FIN-RUS trade was shrinking even before the recent crisis. In 2019 the RUS share of Finnish exports was 5,6%, thats below the Netherlands. Imports from RUS have been mostly energy, luckily natural gas is not widely used in Finland. Tourism and businesses in Eastern Finland have been hit and Finnair of course.

MareBorealis wrote:

davidjohnson6 wrote:

The problems that Finnair has with Russia are not just for Finnair. Finland has a long border with Russia and cross-border trade has been significant for decades. A decline will affect the wider Finnish economy in a meaningful way

Actually the FIN-RUS trade was shrinking even before the recent crisis. In 2019 the RUS share of Finnish exports was 5,6%, thats below the Netherlands. Imports from RUS have been mostly energy, luckily natural gas is not widely used in Finland. Tourism and businesses in Eastern Finland have been hit and Finnair of course.

I wish Finnish entrepreneurs would be as positive as you. Finland imported raw materials metals, timber and produced a lot in Russia, there's also half finished nuclear reactor built by Rosatom in Finland. The damages are greater than what media say. The final count will be in a couple of years. Finnair is the tip of the iceberg.

Kikko19 wrote:

MareBorealis wrote:

davidjohnson6 wrote:

The problems that Finnair has with Russia are not just for Finnair. Finland has a long border with Russia and cross-border trade has been significant for decades. A decline will affect the wider Finnish economy in a meaningful way

Actually the FIN-RUS trade was shrinking even before the recent crisis. In 2019 the RUS share of Finnish exports was 5,6%, thats below the Netherlands. Imports from RUS have been mostly energy, luckily natural gas is not widely used in Finland. Tourism and businesses in Eastern Finland have been hit and Finnair of course.

I wish Finnish entrepreneurs would be as positive as you. Finland imported raw materials metals, timber and produced a lot in Russia, there's also half finished nuclear reactor built by Rosatom in Finland. The damages are greater than what media say. The final count will be in a couple of years. Finnair is the tip of the iceberg.

The "half finished" Rosatom nuclear plant has nothing finished yet, there's just an empty land. That project is dead, good so. Some 400km south, the French built nuclear plant is expected to start production next winter, good timing. There is so much economical (+ other) potential in the Gulf of Finland region, St Petersburg with 5m people a few hours away from the Helsinki+Tallinn regions 2m. If only RUS was more like a normal European nation, maybe one day.

Back to aviation, shouldn't we?

The Far East market from Helsinki is still there, if Finnair could find a solution they could demand even higher prices than before. I think the solution is flying even further north towards Alaska, and then south. The issue is still scheduling these flights with efficiency, which won't be easy. But if they can get a higher price for their tickets, it would compensate for the efficiency.