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New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 31, 2021 5:20 pm

Welcome to the New Orleans Aviation Thread 2022. Please continue your discussion and to post your news below.

Link to previous thread:

New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2021
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 8:36 am

Some good news with which to start the new year:

BA has added an additional frequency, starting in April.

MSY-LHR will op Tues/Thurs/Fri/Sat.
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:03 pm

Great news about the BA frequency increase.

What are your 2022 predictions and/or wishes for MSY? Here are a few of mine…

AA - second PHX; continued upgauge to 321 on more flights.
DL - daily SEA with A220
UA- return of LAX now that AA has seemingly left the market
WN - bring back OAK, RDU
NK - bring back AUS, BNA, BOS
MX - PVD, PIT, and a couple of western markets added with the new A220
B6 - with 2X LGA already announced, that should be it for this year
AS - second seasonal SEA gets extended to year-round
F9 - try out a twice-weekly SJU
G4 - status quo
SY - status quo
AC - just start up again
TS - hopefully they find success again and extend to year- round service
BA - add a 5th weekly frequency before the year ends
CM - actually restore service in November like it says on their website
DE - announce a return for summer 2023
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:34 pm

For me, these are all wishes, more so than predictions:

SunsetLimited wrote:
DL - daily SEA with A220

Agreed


SunsetLimited wrote:
UA- return of LAX now that AA has seemingly left the market

Would rather see a second daily SFO, so that morning and evening are offered


SunsetLimited wrote:
WN - bring back OAK, RDU

SJC might deserve a second run


SunsetLimited wrote:
NK - bring back AUS, BNA, BOS

Love to see them tighten up second frequencies on key routes, such that connections work on both outbounds and inbounds.

Also, would love to see them try (a seasonal?) scheduled MBJ, since the charters have so consistently made it work.


SunsetLimited wrote:
MX

Their business plan is understandable, but the way they're going about it, requires a PhD in 8-dimensional chess to understand.

I'd like to see them advertise, so that someone other than AvGeeks even knows who they are, or that they're here.


SunsetLimited wrote:
AS - second seasonal SEA gets extended to year-round

That, and at least a seasonal PDX.


SunsetLimited wrote:
F9 - try out a twice-weekly SJU

Agreed


SunsetLimited wrote:
G4 - status quo

I've never been sure what G4's niche at MSY is... and I'm not convinced that they've ever been either. Glad they're still here though.


SunsetLimited wrote:
BA - add a 5th weekly frequency before the year ends

On October 30th, they're adding a Sunday frequency (which is odd, seeing as that's the one day they never flew MSY, even pre-Covid) but it comes at the cost of Thursday.

Then again, that's so far out, that I doubt it means much. They'll probably change the schedule a half dozen times before then. Still, interesting to see it though.


SunsetLimited wrote:
CM - actually restore service in November like it says on their website

Or sooner


SunsetLimited wrote:
DE - announce a return for summer 2023

Or be replaced by EuroDisco, with a pathway to Lufthansa someday.
Last edited by LAX772LR on Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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william
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:54 pm

Any plans to buy out the commercial businesses in front of the new terminal. Not a pleasing sight when one arrives into New Orleans. I guess over time, hotels and other travel related businesses could buy them out. Or put the CONRAD there.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 2:55 pm

william wrote:
Any plans to buy out the commercial businesses in front of the new terminal. Not a pleasing sight when one arrives into New Orleans. I guess over time, hotels and other travel related businesses could buy them out. Or put the CONRAD there.

Not by the airport. From what I understand, it's all bonded out; so no money for anything of that sort.
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:54 pm

william wrote:
Any plans to buy out the commercial businesses in front of the new terminal. Not a pleasing sight when one arrives into New Orleans. I guess over time, hotels and other travel related businesses could buy them out. Or put the CONRAD there.


The road (Bainbridge St) that the rental car and economy lot shuttles take to the airport is the worst in America - huge cracks in the road, pot holes, almost like off road driving the entire way. It’s an ugly, industrial area for sure, but the road itself is the biggest problem. I guess the city of Kenner just doesn’t really think it’s a big deal, which is unfortunate.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 4:59 am

SunsetLimited wrote:
Great news about the BA frequency increase.

What are your 2022 predictions and/or wishes for MSY? Here are a few of mine…

AA - second PHX; continued upgauge to 321 on more flights.
DL - daily SEA with A220
UA- return of LAX now that AA has seemingly left the market
WN - bring back OAK, RDU
NK - bring back AUS, BNA, BOS
MX - PVD, PIT, and a couple of western markets added with the new A220
B6 - with 2X LGA already announced, that should be it for this year
AS - second seasonal SEA gets extended to year-round
F9 - try out a twice-weekly SJU
G4 - status quo
SY - status quo
AC - just start up again
TS - hopefully they find success again and extend to year- round service
BA - add a 5th weekly frequency before the year ends
CM - actually restore service in November like it says on their website
DE - announce a return for summer 2023


Fingers crossed most of these happen.

Additional thoughts:

NK - add PUJ, MBJ, PIT, and BUF. PUJ and MBJ run seasonally.
MX - I expect them to open more stations up next year as the A220s come online. Will be interesting to see what they do.
BA - hoping we get back to the 6x weekly originally scheduled to start in April 2020.
DE - would prefer LH or EW, but beggars can't be choosers.

Also, all of the concessions finally reopen in the terminal (including the Smoothie King :lol:) Maybe the duty free store will also open in A if enough international traffic returns.

Concerning Bainbridge, I remember the mayor of Kenner specifically stating they were going to repave the road before the terminal opened. Looks like that was a lie.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:19 am

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Also, all of the concessions finally reopen in the terminal (including the Smoothie King :lol:)

. . . uh-huh, y'all think this is a game! :mad:
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Thu Jan 06, 2022 8:18 am

September 2021 domestic and June 2021 international load factors and passenger numbers by route have been calculated. Obviously, Hurricane Ida power outages and damage adversely impacted flight operations during the first half of the month. However, I was surprised to see that total pax numbers still exceeded the levels seen in September 2020.

WN had a very good month in June flying to CUN.

June International route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats.........Pax...........LF
WN................1,430.........1,349.......94.3%
WG................1,440............991.......68.8%.

As compared to September 2020, airport-wide domestic seat count fell by -4.2%, and domestic pax traffic increased by 6.4% resulting in a 11.0% increase in load factors to 68.0%.

The route with the highest load factor in September was WN's MSY-MDY route with a 84.2% load factor. The route with the lowest load factor was NK's MSY-DFW route with a 20.2% load factor. WN cut back on service the most with a 50.8% reduction in capacity from the previous year due to the impact of Hurricane Ida.

F9 began service to ATL and LAS. Given the impacts from Ida, the routes started poorly.

Breeze did not report any data to the government for the month of September.

September Domestic route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats..............................Pax..........................LF
3M.....................980..............................349........................35.6%
AA..............110,546(+8.5%).............81,955(+0.9%)...........74.1%(-7.0%)
AS..................9,110(-12.9%)..............4,197(+8.6%)...........46.1%(+2.7%)
B6.................21,090(+109.1%)..........9,474(+182.5%).......44.9%(+35.2%)
DL.................75,092(-5.8%).............52,841(+31.8%).........70.4%(+39.9%)
F9.................15,468(+18.5%)............7,480(-7.3%)............48.4%(+21.8%)
G4..................5,058(+77.1%)............1,420(+17.4).............28.1%(-33.7%)
NK.................45,352(+14.4%).........25,571(-12.7%)...........56.4%(-23.6%)
UA.................97,086(+167.8%).......66,854(+135.0%)........68.9%(-12.3%)
WN..............103,377(-50.8%)..........78,201(-30.4%)...........75.6%(+41.5%)

International Data
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Domestic Data
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
 
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flyPIT
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:42 pm

Surprised this hasn’t been mentioned here yet; BA taking another hiatus. Service scheduled to resume by May.
 
SunsetLimited
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:55 pm

flyPIT wrote:
Surprised this hasn’t been mentioned here yet; BA taking another hiatus. Service scheduled to resume by May.


It looks like it’s resuming on 4/26 as a 4X weekly service. Probably not a bad idea to postpone it. Tourism traffic is just not there yet, inbound and outbound. It’ll be interesting to see how the route does long term. Before covid, it was going to 6X weekly and the 789 was a fairly common visitor. Now, the game has changed. We shall see.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:48 am

The airport posted September and October statistics.

https://flymsy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Airline-Statistics-September-2021.pdf
https://flymsy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Airline-Statistics-October-2021.pdf

September was greatly impacted by Hurricane Ida disruptions, and passenger traffic only totaled 334,328 for the month. This was a 9.8% increase of Sept. 2020. October saw some recovery, but numbers were still running below peer airports as traffic gradually rebounded through the month. In total, 805,846 passengers used the airport in October which was 113.2% higher than observed in 2020.

Due to the lower numbers as compared to our peer airports, MSY's ranking fell to 40th busiest in the nation through October. The airport was positioned between OAK and MCI.

https://www.oaklandairport.com/oakland- ... ober-2021/
https://www.flykci.com/newsroom/statist ... tatistics/
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Feb 04, 2022 9:06 am

October 2021 domestic and July 2021 international load factors and passenger numbers by route have been calculated.

NK started flying to CUN and SAP in July, and the routes did decently with loads near 70% on both routes. SAP is flown 3x weekly and CUN is flown 4x weekly. .

July International route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats.........Pax...........LF
NK.................9,788.........6,834.......69.6%
WN................1,430.........1,326.......92.7%
WG................1,800.........1,025.......56.9%.

As compared to October 2020, airport-wide domestic seat count rose by 75.4%, and domestic pax traffic increased by 111.5% resulting in a 20.5% increase in load factors to 74.7%.

The route with the highest load factor in September was AA's MSY-PHL route with a 90.6% load factor. The route with the lowest load factor was WN's MSY-IAH route with a 32.1% load factor. WN reinstated several routes that were cut during the pandemic including SAT, MCI, DCA. OKC is a new destination that started in response to MX. It had a 72.4% load factor for the month, so we will see if it sticks.

Breeze (MX) did not report any data to the government for the month of October.

October Domestic route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats..............................Pax..........................LF
3M..................1,142..............................698........................61.1%
AA..............195,629(+89.6%).........157,207(+87.1%)........80.4%(-1.3%)
AS................10,884(+3.0%)...............7,470(+44.3%)........68.6%(+19.6%)
B6.................44,712(+297.9%)........26,821(+441.7%).......60.0%(+36.1%)
DL..............138,176(+46.8%).........104,189(+127.5%).......75.4%(+54.9%)
F9.................29,152(+47.0%)..........20,432(+84.7%).........70.1%(+25.7%)
G4..................8,754(+33.7%)............5,335(+82.4).............60.9%(+36.4%)
NK..............110,090(+72.1%)..........80,520(+71.8%).........73.1%(-0.2%)
SY..................3,438(16.0%)..............1,729(-19.1%)...........50.3%(-3.6%)
UA..............138,351(+96.6%)........107,031(+111.1%)........77.4%(+7.4%)
WN.............392,248(+72.5%)........289,789(+131.4%).......73.9%(+34.2%)

International
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19MtMvo1Tg88CVQKmbR8i2TqnbK1fWqgixGmPviewVZw/edit?usp=sharing

Domestic
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zx1l3b1yQKyz5yRYvlM7Q2RDnkXkW8SFwSHCml4ski4/edit?usp=sharing
 
jbs2886
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Feb 04, 2022 5:30 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
October 2021 domestic and July 2021 international load factors and passenger numbers by route have been calculated.

NK started flying to CUN and SAP in July, and the routes did decently with loads near 70% on both routes. SAP is flown 3x weekly and CUN is flown 4x weekly. .

July International route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats.........Pax...........LF
NK.................9,788.........6,834.......69.6%
WN................1,430.........1,326.......92.7%
WG................1,800.........1,025.......56.9%.

As compared to October 2020, airport-wide domestic seat count rose by 75.4%, and domestic pax traffic increased by 111.5% resulting in a 20.5% increase in load factors to 74.7%.

The route with the highest load factor in September was AA's MSY-PHL route with a 90.6% load factor. The route with the lowest load factor was WN's MSY-IAH route with a 32.1% load factor. WN reinstated several routes that were cut during the pandemic including SAT, MCI, DCA. OKC is a new destination that started in response to MX. It had a 72.4% load factor for the month, so we will see if it sticks.

Breeze (MX) did not report any data to the government for the month of October.

October Domestic route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats..............................Pax..........................LF
3M..................1,142..............................698........................61.1%
AA..............195,629(+89.6%).........157,207(+87.1%)........80.4%(-1.3%)
AS................10,884(+3.0%)...............7,470(+44.3%)........68.6%(+19.6%)
B6.................44,712(+297.9%)........26,821(+441.7%).......60.0%(+36.1%)
DL..............138,176(+46.8%).........104,189(+127.5%).......75.4%(+54.9%)
F9.................29,152(+47.0%)..........20,432(+84.7%).........70.1%(+25.7%)
G4..................8,754(+33.7%)............5,335(+82.4).............60.9%(+36.4%)
NK..............110,090(+72.1%)..........80,520(+71.8%).........73.1%(-0.2%)
SY..................3,438(16.0%)..............1,729(-19.1%)...........50.3%(-3.6%)
UA..............138,351(+96.6%)........107,031(+111.1%)........77.4%(+7.4%)
WN.............392,248(+72.5%)........289,789(+131.4%).......73.9%(+34.2%)

International
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19MtMvo1Tg88CVQKmbR8i2TqnbK1fWqgixGmPviewVZw/edit?usp=sharing

Domestic
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zx1l3b1yQKyz5yRYvlM7Q2RDnkXkW8SFwSHCml4ski4/edit?usp=sharing


Wow, DL is now 3rd of the US3 legacies...its gone from 1st to 3rd with UA overtaking it on passengers.
 
msycajun
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Feb 05, 2022 12:28 am

jbs2886 wrote:
Wow, DL is now 3rd of the US3 legacies...its gone from 1st to 3rd with UA overtaking it on passengers.


It's not a surprise with NYC/LA traffic (and international connections) way down and Breeze probably taking a lot of formerly ATL-connecting traffic to RIC/CHS/ORF, etc. I'm guessing the drop in international traffic hurt them more than most, making it harder to respond to the competition.

NK's lf is pretty good for the first month of SAP/CUN. I had been really worried that they'd get trimmed, but I've been seeing a ton of advertising for those routes. Almost none for Breeze, except, bizarrely, for the PBI route. I can't imagine what the strategy for that is, being Saturday only.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Feb 05, 2022 3:30 am

jbs2886 wrote:

Wow, DL is now 3rd of the US3 legacies...its gone from 1st to 3rd with UA overtaking it on passengers.


I was surprised by that too.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Feb 08, 2022 5:16 am

It the F9/NK merger is approved, there are 4 routes that will lose some competition (PHL, LAS, MCO, ATL). NK has a fairly substantial operation at MSY, so we'll see how it is impacted by this merger.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Feb 11, 2022 5:55 am

The airport posted November statistics.

https://flymsy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Airline-Statistics-November-2021.pdf

November saw a strong passenger count with the highest totals recorded since the pandemic began in March 2020. Passenger traffic totaled 918,895 for the month. This was a 130.9% increase over Nov. 2020, but traffic levels still remained 19.8% below those seen in Nov. 2019. WN, AA, DL, UA, and NK were the 5 largest airlines at the airport.

One issue I've noticed in the reports is that the international numbers are always transposed for NK and WN in deplaned passenger section. NK has the higher international count with service to both CUN and SAP.

MSY's year to date ranking remained unchanged in November at the 40th busiest in the nation. The airport remained positioned between OAK and MCI.

https://www.oaklandairport.com/oak-airport-reports-steady-passenger-levels-for-november-2021/
https://www.flykci.com/media/r3jfhrlm/stats-2021-november.pdf
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Feb 13, 2022 7:18 am

Breeze finally sent their data to the government. I have calculated the year to date and monthly load factors for each route. No surprise why HSV was cut so early. CHS, RIC, and ORF are the strongest routes in terms of loads with XNA and CMH just a bit behind. No shocker that OKC, TUL, and CAK were or will be cut. SDF has competition from G4, and I believe it is also getting cut.

Destination......Jul LF....Aug LF....Sep LF....Oct LF....Nov LF....YTD LF
CAK....................41.4%...42.0%......16.1%.....33.1%.....42.2%......34.8%
CHS....................45.2%...37.4%......31.0%.....61.4%.....69.7%......50.6%
CMH...................51.4%...33.3%......26.0%.....52.0%.....53.1%.....43.8%
HSV....................31.6%...17.7%........N/A.........N/A.........N/A........25.2%
OKC....................37.3%...24.4%......17.2%.....35.1%.....48.5%......32.1%
ORF....................56.2%...45.7%......21.8%.....45.3%.....56.1%......45.8%
RIC.....................57.8%...45.8%......23.5%.....55.9%.....65.8%......50.5%
SDF....................43.4%...28.3%......18.5%.....50.2%.....46.9%......36.0%
TUL....................35.3%...23.9%......16.2%.....30.3%.....40.1%......29.3%
XNA...................39.3%...26.7%......28.8%.....48.3%.....61.2%......39.6%

I also looked at which stations have the highest performance for Breeze, and the standout stations are TPA (shocker), PVD, BDL, RIC, and ORF. I think routes to PVD and BDL would both perform decently from here given the strong demand these stations generate to all of their markets. PIT is a bit of underperforming station, and that surprised me. CHS has some good routes and some really bad routes much like MSY.
 
2travel2know2
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Feb 13, 2022 2:20 pm

SunsetLimited wrote:
What are your 2022 predictions and/or wishes for MSY?
AV - TACA makes a comeback to MSY, from SAL.
 
msycajun
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Feb 14, 2022 4:36 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Breeze finally sent their data to the government. I have calculated the year to date and monthly load factors for each route. No surprise why HSV was cut so early. CHS, RIC, and ORF are the strongest routes in terms of loads with XNA and CMH just a bit behind. No shocker that OKC, TUL, and CAK were or will be cut. SDF has competition from G4, and I believe it is also getting cut.

Destination......Jul LF....Aug LF....Sep LF....Oct LF....Nov LF....YTD LF
CAK....................41.4%...42.0%......16.1%.....33.1%.....42.2%......34.8%
CHS....................45.2%...37.4%......31.0%.....61.4%.....69.7%......50.6%
CMH...................51.4%...33.3%......26.0%.....52.0%.....53.1%.....43.8%
HSV....................31.6%...17.7%........N/A.........N/A.........N/A........25.2%
OKC....................37.3%...24.4%......17.2%.....35.1%.....48.5%......32.1%
ORF....................56.2%...45.7%......21.8%.....45.3%.....56.1%......45.8%
RIC.....................57.8%...45.8%......23.5%.....55.9%.....65.8%......50.5%
SDF....................43.4%...28.3%......18.5%.....50.2%.....46.9%......36.0%
TUL....................35.3%...23.9%......16.2%.....30.3%.....40.1%......29.3%
XNA...................39.3%...26.7%......28.8%.....48.3%.....61.2%......39.6%

I also looked at which stations have the highest performance for Breeze, and the standout stations are TPA (shocker), PVD, BDL, RIC, and ORF. I think routes to PVD and BDL would both perform decently from here given the strong demand these stations generate to all of their markets. PIT is a bit of underperforming station, and that surprised me. CHS has some good routes and some really bad routes much like MSY.


It's unfortunate that some of these routes did not have the benefit of a strong inbound tourism season to prove themselves. We have to remember that Breeze started up with very little notice and not a ton of advertising in their first few months (which are typically weak for MSY) and then Hurricane Ida and the Delta surge really dampened the fall demand. The routes that performed well either have some outbound leisure draw (e.g. CHS, XNA) or business ties (SDF, RIC, ORF). It would have been interesting to see if OKC/TUL and CAK/CMH were cannibalizing each other. I'd suspect that running one or the other at 3-4 weekly might do better than 2 weekly each, especially when you've got competition on NK to CMH and WN to OKC.
 
Nola
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Feb 14, 2022 10:46 pm

Condor is having a large US expansion, but not coming back to MSY.

https://onemileatatime.com/news/condor- ... expansion/
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:32 am

Nola wrote:
Condor is having a large US expansion, but not coming back to MSY.

https://onemileatatime.com/news/condor- ... expansion/


Bold of them to challenge LH upfront like that in major markets. Total change in strategy from before the pandemic. PIT and MSY had to go to support these new markets. This will help the BA flight since they will be the only non-stop TATL game in town this Summer.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Feb 15, 2022 1:43 am

msycajun wrote:
It's unfortunate that some of these routes did not have the benefit of a strong inbound tourism season to prove themselves. We have to remember that Breeze started up with very little notice and not a ton of advertising in their first few months (which are typically weak for MSY) and then Hurricane Ida and the Delta surge really dampened the fall demand. The routes that performed well either have some outbound leisure draw (e.g. CHS, XNA) or business ties (SDF, RIC, ORF). It would have been interesting to see if OKC/TUL and CAK/CMH were cannibalizing each other. I'd suspect that running one or the other at 3-4 weekly might do better than 2 weekly each, especially when you've got competition on NK to CMH and WN to OKC.


Yup, the combo of a mid-Summer start along with Hurricane Ida didn't help any of these routes. There is absolutely a decent level of demand from OKC and TUL, but it is very seasonal and peaks in the Spring. I was hoping these routes would have been given enough time to mature to that point, but they were cut before that could happen. OKC, TUL, and SAT all only have one route operating, so they may not be around much longer in the MX system anyway. The next logical adds from here based on their current station list are PIT, ISP, and BDL. All of these markets have sufficient year round demand to support a 2-4x weekly operation.
 
BTVB6Flyer
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Feb 15, 2022 5:42 am

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Breeze finally sent their data to the government. I have calculated the year to date and monthly load factors for each route. No surprise why HSV was cut so early. CHS, RIC, and ORF are the strongest routes in terms of loads with XNA and CMH just a bit behind. No shocker that OKC, TUL, and CAK were or will be cut. SDF has competition from G4, and I believe it is also getting cut.

Destination......Jul LF....Aug LF....Sep LF....Oct LF....Nov LF....YTD LF
CAK....................41.4%...42.0%......16.1%.....33.1%.....42.2%......34.8%
CHS....................45.2%...37.4%......31.0%.....61.4%.....69.7%......50.6%
CMH...................51.4%...33.3%......26.0%.....52.0%.....53.1%.....43.8%
HSV....................31.6%...17.7%........N/A.........N/A.........N/A........25.2%
OKC....................37.3%...24.4%......17.2%.....35.1%.....48.5%......32.1%
ORF....................56.2%...45.7%......21.8%.....45.3%.....56.1%......45.8%
RIC.....................57.8%...45.8%......23.5%.....55.9%.....65.8%......50.5%
SDF....................43.4%...28.3%......18.5%.....50.2%.....46.9%......36.0%
TUL....................35.3%...23.9%......16.2%.....30.3%.....40.1%......29.3%
XNA...................39.3%...26.7%......28.8%.....48.3%.....61.2%......39.6%

I also looked at which stations have the highest performance for Breeze, and the standout stations are TPA (shocker), PVD, BDL, RIC, and ORF. I think routes to PVD and BDL would both perform decently from here given the strong demand these stations generate to all of their markets. PIT is a bit of underperforming station, and that surprised me. CHS has some good routes and some really bad routes much like MSY.


By chance do you have a link or can post the TPA numbers?
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Feb 16, 2022 8:50 am

BTVB6Flyer wrote:
By chance do you have a link or can post the TPA numbers?


Here is the link to the source for the data...https://www.transtats.bts.gov/DL_SelectFields.asp?gnoyr_VQ=FIM&QO_fu146_anzr=Nv4%20Pn44vr45

The overall station load factor at TPA through November was 56.9%. The other bases of MSY and CHS had station load factors of 40.9% and 55.6% respectively.

MSY was the underperforming base, but having a Cat 4 hurricane hit and effectively kill traffic for a good month and a half is the main culprit. September and October saw a lot of planes flying empty from MSY on all of the airlines. The double whammy is that October is traditionally one of the three busiest months for pax traffic at MSY, but this year it was one of the worst as the area slowly recovered from the hurricane. Things began picking up for all airlines in November as the tourist areas started to open back up. This is evident in the Breeze numbers with only TUL running below the station average in November. I'm very interested in seeing how Omicron impacted things in January.
 
msycajun
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Mar 07, 2022 9:36 pm

I hadn't seen this mentioned anywhere, but it looks like Silver is increasing JAX to 4 weekly (Sunday, Monday, Thursday, Friday) for April through July 4. I've seen rumors that Breeze may be announcing JAX soon, so maybe it's a preemptive add.
 
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Metrocard
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:35 pm

msycajun wrote:
I hadn't seen this mentioned anywhere, but it looks like Silver is increasing JAX to 4 weekly (Sunday, Monday, Thursday, Friday) for April through July 4. I've seen rumors that Breeze may be announcing JAX soon, so maybe it's a preemptive add.


Saw fares for MSY-JAX on Breeze advertised this morning in a travel site.
 
msycajun
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Mar 08, 2022 3:07 pm

MSY-JAX on Breeze is official now, Mon/Fri, starting May 27. Also seeing "Breezethru" being offered for MSY-RIC-BDL/PVD, so maybe testing those waters as well. Would like to have seen RSW added in this latest expansion, but didn't expect much given the summer lull here. Hopefully we'll see more dots connected in the fall.
 
bretonrlong
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Mar 08, 2022 9:26 pm

msycajun wrote:
MSY-JAX on Breeze is official now, Mon/Fri, starting May 27. Also seeing "Breezethru" being offered for MSY-RIC-BDL/PVD, so maybe testing those waters as well. Would like to have seen RSW added in this latest expansion, but didn't expect much given the summer lull here. Hopefully we'll see more dots connected in the fall.


Agreed on RSW. Hopefully, we will see them give that one a shot. Has any airline tried MSY>RSW before?
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Mar 08, 2022 11:04 pm

Was really expecting to see either BDL or PIT added. Surprised they are flying JAX with competition already on the route. RSW has not been flown by any airline.
 
uconn99
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Mar 08, 2022 11:24 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
Was really expecting to see either BDL or PIT added. Surprised they are flying JAX with competition already on the route. RSW has not been flown by any airline.


Same here, although MSY-BDL could still be announced. When BDL was added as a base there was talk of 8 new routes within weeks of the announcement. Hoping MSY and a west coast destination is the 7th and 8th added route from BDL.
 
Silverstreak
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Mar 09, 2022 12:01 am

Are there any areas around MSY to watch planes land and take off? I live in Lafayette and I don’t think there is much to look at or anywhere to view planes.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Mar 09, 2022 4:32 am

Silverstreak wrote:
Are there any areas around MSY to watch planes land and take off? I live in Lafayette and I don’t think there is much to look at or anywhere to view planes.


Yes, the top of the long term parking garage (not free) and the dead end street (26th St.) next to the adult book store just off Bainbridge (free) are both good spots for plane spotting.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Mar 13, 2022 4:51 am

November 2021 domestic and August 2021 international load factors and passenger numbers by route have been calculated.

Not a great month for international routes in August, and the loss of Labor Day flying due to Hurricane Ida slamming into the region in late August likely didn't help matters.

August International route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats.........Pax...........LF
NK.................8,372.........3,174.......37.9%
WN................1,144............728.......63.6%

As compared to November 2020, airport-wide domestic seat count rose by 72.2%, and domestic pax traffic increased by 122.9% resulting in a 29.4% increase in load factors to 72.2%.

The route with the highest load factor in November was WN's MSY-SAN route with a 94.3% load factor. The route with the lowest load factor was MX's MSY-TUL route with a 40.1% load factor.

November Domestic route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats..............................Pax..........................LF
3M..................1,072..............................638........................59.5%
AA..............199,659(+86.3%).........163,762(+96.1%).........82.0%(+5.3%)
AS................10,070(-7.3%)................8,877(+81.8%)........88.1%(+43.2%)
B6.................25,604(+119.9%)........19,121(+240.3%).......74.7%(+54.8%)
DL..............170,881(+83.3%).........134,093(+194.1%).......78.5%(+60.4%)
F9.................27,276(+50.7%)..........18,210(+64.2%).........66.8%(+8.9%)
G4..................8,628(+45.2%)............5,640(+105.7)...........65.4%(+41.6%)
MX................21,556........................12,140........................56.3%
NK..............135,453(+49.4%)........102,495(+60.1%).........75.7%(+7.2%)
SY..................2,976(-12.5%)..............1,832(+17.1%).........50.3%(-3.6%)
UA..............146,650(+88.9%)........117,571(+111.3%)........80.7%(+11.8%)
WN.............415,019(+61.0%)........337,212(+142.8%).......81.2%(+50.8%)

International
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

Domestic
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing
 
msycajun
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Mar 23, 2022 5:21 pm

NolaMD88fan wrote:
November 2021 domestic and August 2021 international load factors and passenger numbers by route have been calculated.

Thanks for doing these. It's been busier than usual, but I always enjoy looking at the data.

SAN has been a consistently strong route even though WN usually has high fares. I am surprised F9 or NK haven't tried it yet. Looks like LAX could also use some additional capacity. I hear that the local film industry is going strong and we just had another studio announced.

SAP also did surprisingly well for its first month given the conditions. Would love to see NK make CUN a daily route, switch SAP to 4 weekly and add MBJ the remaining days.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Mar 27, 2022 3:42 am

December and Annual 2021 domestic and September 2021 international load factors and passenger numbers by route have been calculated.

September had very limited international activity given the after effects of Hurricane Ida impacting the area. NK restarted the CUN flight, but it did not do well as people were busy recovering from the storm that month.

September International route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats.........Pax...........LF
NK.................1,746.........343.........19.6%

As compared to December 2020, airport-wide domestic seat count rose by 78.8%, and domestic pax traffic increased by 122.5% resulting in a 24.4% increase in load factors to 80.7%.

The route with the highest load factor in December was NK's MSY-LAX route with a 92.8% load factor. The route with the lowest load factor was F9's MSY-ATL route with a 50.0% load factor. MX actually had a decent month with a station load factor of 64.2%. No route had loads below 50% for the month. A definite improving trend from October to December for Breeze in terms of loads.

December Domestic route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats..............................Pax..........................LF
3M....................792..............................432........................54.5%
AA..............195,839(+91.0%).........161,955(+121.1%)......82.7%(+15.8%)
AS................10,248(-7.1%)................9,375(+82.2%)........91.5%(+44.9%)
B6.................27,380(+132.7%)........20,703(+252.0%)......75.6%(+51.2%)
DL..............162,816(+63.5%).........132,012(+186.1%)......81.1%(+75.0%)
F9.................24,982(+173.9%)........16,948(+163.2%)......67.8%(-3.9%)
G4..................2,922(+46.5%)............2,051(-8.3)...............70.2%(+71.3%)
MX................18,266........................11,734........................64.2%
NK..............123,521(+31.6%)..........97,037(+58.6%).........78.6%(+20.5%)
UA..............137,460(+80.2%)........111,753(+107.5%).......81.3%(+15.2%)
WN.............392,148(+92.6%)........320,653(+123.4%).......81.8%(+16.0%)

Annual Domestic route seat count(% change), pax count(%change), and load factor(change):

Airline............Seats..............................Pax..........................LF
3M.................7,486............................4,522.......................60.4%
4B....................304...............................143.......................47.0%
AA...........1,949,283(+31.2%)......1,571,059(+62.9%)........80.6%(+15.7%)
AS..............125,156(-24.6%)............91,382(-1.4%)..........73.0%(+17.2%)
B6...............273,438(+31.8%)........195,326(+75.0%)........71.4%(+17.6%)
DL...........1,657,152(+37.7%)......1,164,463(+64.0%)........70.3%(+11.3%)
F9...............228,396(+33.2%).........162,894(+48.0%).......71.3%(+7.1%)
G4................91,788(+18.2%)...........48,741(+21.0%)........53.1%(+1.2%)
MX..............130,959.........................57,886......................44.2%
NK...........1,305,998(+17.6%).........973,831(+39.6%).......74.6%(+11.8%)
SY...................9,762(-46.6%).............5,997(-42.4%)........61.4%(+4.4%)
UA...........1,293,146(+41.7%)......1,003,191(+66.2%).......77.6%(+11.5%)
WN..........3,569,696(+1.0%)........2,815,136(+48.9%).......78.9%(+25.3%)

International
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19MtMvo1Tg88CVQKmbR8i2TqnbK1fWqgixGmPviewVZw/edit?usp=sharing

Domestic
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zx1l3b1yQKyz5yRYvlM7Q2RDnkXkW8SFwSHCml4ski4/edit?usp=sharing
 
msycajun
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 06, 2022 3:31 pm

Looks like Breeze extended their schedule into November. Doesn't appear to be great for MSY - CAK, CMH, and ORF don't seem to make it past September. That's puzzling as ORF was one of their best routes and CAK and CMH have been doing very well recently. In fact all of the Sunday MSY-CAK flights in April seem to be sold out. Hopefully they'll get added back if staffing and fleet issues improve.

On the bright side they are planning MSY-PBI on Thursday and Sunday in the fall, which should do much better than the current Saturday only service.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 06, 2022 4:20 pm

msycajun wrote:
Looks like Breeze extended their schedule into November. Doesn't appear to be great for MSY - CAK, CMH, and ORF don't seem to make it past September. That's puzzling as ORF was one of their best routes and CAK and CMH have been doing very well recently. In fact all of the Sunday MSY-CAK flights in April seem to be sold out. Hopefully they'll get added back if staffing and fleet issues improve.

On the bright side they are planning MSY-PBI on Thursday and Sunday in the fall, which should do much better than the current Saturday only service.

Trying to figure out MX is like watching a hamster wheel spin. Not sure how else to describe it.
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 20, 2022 2:09 am

The airport posted December and calendar year 2021 statistics.

https://flymsy.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Airline-Statistics-December-2021.pdf

December passenger traffic totaled 886,515. This was a 125.4% increase over Dec. 2020, but traffic levels still remained 23.8% below those seen in Dec. 2019.

Calendar Year passenger traffic totaled 8,066,869. This was a 52.8% increase over 2020, but traffic levels still remained 40.9% below 2019.

WN, AA, DL, UA, and NK were the 5 largest airlines at the airport.

One issue that continues in the reports is that the international numbers are always transposed for NK and WN in deplaned passenger section. NK has the higher international count with service to both CUN and SAP.

MSY's ranking remained unchanged in November at the 40th busiest in the nation, and finished 2021 positioned between OAK and SNA.

A full breakdown of the 50 busiest airports in the lower 48 states is available at the following link...https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qHO5GPCAwh_7C26u5YqPPYb1BeyErYcZcESzm7nMusg/edit?usp=sharing
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:57 am

NolaMD88fan wrote:
but traffic levels still remained 40.9% below 2019.

I know several of the foreign carriers have yet to return, including BA for another week....

...but have all stateside carriers returned (at least in some capacity) as well?
Allegiant? Silver? Sun Country?
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:31 am

Yup. All of the domestic carriers are back. Capacity is still down though compared to 2019. The last cog to return to full strength in terms of demand is the convention traffic. That was a pretty significant demand driver pre-pandemic.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 20, 2022 12:58 pm

Speaking of BA, with less than a week until their return:

Both C and W are about 2/3rds full on the re-inaugural in both directions. Y cabin is wide open, both ways.
 
Nola
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:34 pm

Breeze Airways to Introduce New Nonstop Route from New Orleans to Savannah

Plus One-Stop/Same Plane Service to New York City’s Westchester Airport

Breeze Will Now Offer 9 Nonstop Destinations from MSY

https://flymsy.com/breeze-airways-new-n ... -savannah/
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:36 am

Nola wrote:
Breeze Will Now Offer 9 Nonstop Destinations from MSY

...isn't that more or less what they started off with?
 
ATLgaUSA
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 4:07 pm

LAX772LR wrote:
Nola wrote:
Breeze Will Now Offer 9 Nonstop Destinations from MSY

...isn't that more or less what they started off with?

They’ve cut the Ohio, Oklahoma, and Huntsville routes, right?
 
NolaMD88fan
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 22, 2022 7:44 am

CAK and CMH have gone seasonal from what I've read.
 
msycajun
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Apr 25, 2022 4:19 am

Looks like MX is increasing JAX to 5 weekly in July. Good to see except I can't imagine Silver hanging on much longer in that route.
 
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LAX772LR
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Re: New Orleans Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:52 am

BA returns to LHR-MSY today, with both the J and W cabins full, and the Y cabin at approx 70%.

Also, The Club MSY announces that they're lengthening their hours to 9pm, sufficiently to cater to BA's premium pax if such a partnership is announced (which I'm guessing will be the case)

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