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MileHFL400
Posts: 1218
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2015 11:42 am

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:50 am

eastafspot wrote:
factsonly wrote:
KLM adjusts its East African service for Summer 2023:

- NBO daily B781
- DAR daily B781
- EBB daily A333
- JRO 6x weekly B781/A333
- KGL 6x weekly A333
- ZNZ 2x weekly B781

- AMS-NBO-AMS operates daily B781
- AMS-KGL-EBB-AMS operates 6x weekly A333 (reduced 1x weekly)
- AMS-JRO-EBB-AMS operates 1x week A333 (new)
- AMS-JRO-DAR-AMS operates 5x week B781
- AMS-ZNZ-DAR-AMS operates 2x week B781

http://www.klm.com


Impressive! Especially since AF will go daily to NBO too, including 3x via ZNZ (1-3-6) with B789.
KQ is left with crumbs.


Not necessarily, KQ still has lots of connecting traffic from joberg.
 
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eastafspot
Posts: 2010
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2008 5:19 pm

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Nov 28, 2022 3:33 pm

MileHFL400 wrote:
eastafspot wrote:
factsonly wrote:
KLM adjusts its East African service for Summer 2023:

- NBO daily B781
- DAR daily B781
- EBB daily A333
- JRO 6x weekly B781/A333
- KGL 6x weekly A333
- ZNZ 2x weekly B781

- AMS-NBO-AMS operates daily B781
- AMS-KGL-EBB-AMS operates 6x weekly A333 (reduced 1x weekly)
- AMS-JRO-EBB-AMS operates 1x week A333 (new)
- AMS-JRO-DAR-AMS operates 5x week B781
- AMS-ZNZ-DAR-AMS operates 2x week B781

http://www.klm.com


Impressive! Especially since AF will go daily to NBO too, including 3x via ZNZ (1-3-6) with B789.
KQ is left with crumbs.


Not necessarily, KQ still has lots of connecting traffic from joberg.


True but can KQ rely solely on JNB, DXB and LHR routes?
The new route from ACC is good idea!
 
rukundo
Posts: 632
Joined: Tue Jan 23, 2007 3:10 am

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Nov 28, 2022 4:35 pm

Loads to Zanzibar are very goods from Paris Cdg with Air France.This summer it was very busy on Saturday. At the begining tthe route was supposed to be operated during the winter. The competition to ZNZ is strong from Paris Cdg. You have Ethiopian Airlines but also Emirates which provides good options thru FlyDubai. Also Etihad. I don'tk how is doing Oman Air, Turkish Airlines & Qatar Airways from Paris Cdg.

CDG NBO by AF has very good loads with many connecting. This summer i remmember seen 2 or 3 times AF to deploy the B777-300ER to Nairobi. https://uk.flightaware.com/live/flight/ ... /LFPG/HKJK

The morning departure from CDG enables to AF to get connecting pax from USA which is a big market for Kenya.

Kenya Airways flights from Paris Cdg are not longer fly back to NBO in the morning. Like with Ethiopian they make a day stop at CDG. It means that last summer sometimes both flights to NBO operated by AF and KQ left CDG almost at the same times. Quite funny to see both flights departing at the gates K (T2E-K).

KQ still carrying lots of pax from Paris Cdg. 92% of load factor between NBO & CDG https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/ ... fs-4007894

This winter they are the only operator to provide morning arrivals at NBO as AF provide late evening arrivals like KLM. But from NBO to CDG Air France and Kenya Airways arrives at the same times at CDG


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

AF wil serve Djibouti with the A350 replacing B777-300ER. The airline will still provide one flight a week. With Kenya Airways which ended service JIB during covid pandemic Skyteam has a low presence now. Few years ago, AF served JIB with the A330-200 but probably with more flights.

Since Bangui has seen a 2nd weekly flight added (AF reduced flights mid 2010s due to the civil war), JIB is i think the only AF destination served one time a week

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/221128-afnw23jib
 
Superboi
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Nov 28, 2022 8:49 pm

rukundo wrote:
berari wrote:
Do you work for RwandAir? Can you please have this thread re-titled to something specific to RwandAir?


No i don't work for RwandAir, howver i m a native Rwandan working in Aviation in France. I admit that many of my post are about Rwanda, but you should go to see others African Aviation threads and you will see that i post others news. Same thing for the East African Aviation Thread. However it's not my fault if all African Aviation Thread are not dynamics like for US or European Aviation Thread. There are only 3 pages for East African Aviation Thread, 2 for Southern & Indian Ocean Thread !!!

You can check all my messages for West & Central Africa Thread :https://www.airliners.net/forum/search.php?keywords=rukundo&t=1468611&sf=msgonly

I have posted data from OAG or Nigerian Civil Aviation about pax trafic in West Africa, no one has answered. I have posted info about the launching of flights between Africa & Caraibes only B747-437B & caribny have answered !!!
,
Southern & Indian Ocean Thread :https://www.airliners.net/forum/search.php?keywords=rukundo&t=1468619&sf=msgonly

Less 10 years ago whe had an unique African Aviation thread with less 30 messages for the 2012 year !!! viewtopic.php?t=542135

And as Eastspot says there are many African Aviation infos that published on separate threads. I think many people doesn't know that there are dedicated threads. And it's not my fault !!!

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MileHFL400 wrote:
I think toward the end of last year Air Tanzania placed an order for MAX, 767F and an additional Dreamliner.

When are these aircraft expected to arrive?


The delivery of the B767 is planned for June 2023. The Max will arrive also in 2023 https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/n ... ft-3959534 & https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/n ... s--4015534

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

More infos about the fact that KQ will resume flights between Ghana and Senegal

Kenya Airways targets corporate travel in new Ghana-Senegal flights


https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/bu ... ts-4034026

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The 3rd A330 for RwandAir which has just left from the hangars today at Châteauroux (France). Ex Avianca Colombia built in 2011. Note that it has the Zorro mask.

Many thanks to Hugo Tsr. As promised links to his galleries


Flickr: https://flickr.com/photos/hugotsr_/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/spotterchateauroux/

Image


So is Rwandair not take the A330neos again?
 
rukundo
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:20 pm

No both A330Neo were delivered to Air Belgium.

Air France resumes Dar Es Salaam service from 12 June 2023. Tag service via Zanzibar.

https://corporate.airfrance.com/en/news ... ast-africa
 
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eastafspot
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:54 pm

rukundo wrote:
Quite funny to see both flights departing at the gates K (T2E-K).


No, it's not funny at all that both flights depart from this concourse, because the ST lounge is definitely sub-par compared to L and M standards.
Interesting info about JIB and BGF.
 
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eastafspot
Posts: 2010
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2008 5:19 pm

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Nov 28, 2022 9:58 pm

rukundo wrote:
Air France resumes Dar Es Salaam service from 12 June 2023. Tag service via Zanzibar.

https://corporate.airfrance.com/en/news ... ast-africa


Not surprised at all. It was only a matter of time in fact. Wait for JRO or MBA to follow!
 
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B747-437B
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:17 am

MileHFL400 wrote:
Not necessarily, KQ still has lots of connecting traffic from joberg.


KQ are doubling down on South Africa as a source market with the 4th daily Johannesburg flight and the upgrade of aircraft on Cape Town from E190 to 738 to 787 over the peak period. The partnership with SAA helps to steer previously SAA-captive corporate traffic their way over the Nairobi hub to the entire region. I wouldn't be surprised to see them open Durban next with the E190, and possibly reintroduce Mombasa-Johannesburg at some point during the year as the plan to expand the focus city there with O&D focused routes grows.
 
yoshoward12
Posts: 161
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Nov 30, 2022 5:27 pm

Just looking for some opinions here:

1) Ethiopian Airlines announced their Vision 2035 plan, which included about 70 more destinations. I am fascinated by Ethiopian's European network, and I think there is room to expand here. Why is there not Amsterdam service, I am sure Ethiopian could sustain service, especially with a one stop. Do y'all think it is possible that AMS is included in one of the future destinations?

2) Would it be advantageous for busier markets in Europe to have morning flights to ADD on Ethiopian? Maybe some with higher P2P figures? I am thinking they could take advantage of connecting pax in places like LHR or FRA. I think ADD itself is a bigger market than people think, due to its diplomatic nature.

3) Are there any new airlines that would consider ADD? Would be nice to have a return of KLM, Lufthansa, or even British Airways. One stops, I've found are crucial to making flights profitable in Africa, and maybe KLM could do what they used to, and added a one stop to make the route work. I just feel like ADD could use representation of other alliances. I know for sure that Ethiopian's growth directly correlates with the lack of other airlines (besides ME carriers like Emirates or Qatar).

4) Does anyone have load factors for flights to and from ADD on all airlines?
 
rukundo
Posts: 632
Joined: Tue Jan 23, 2007 3:10 am

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:01 pm

yoshoward12 wrote:
Just looking for some opinions here:

1) Ethiopian Airlines announced their Vision 2035 plan, which included about 70 more destinations. I am fascinated by Ethiopian's European network, and I think there is room to expand here. Why is there not Amsterdam service, I am sure Ethiopian could sustain service, especially with a one stop. Do y'all think it is possible that AMS is included in one of the future destinations?

2) Would it be advantageous for busier markets in Europe to have morning flights to ADD on Ethiopian? Maybe some with higher P2P figures? I am thinking they could take advantage of connecting pax in places like LHR or FRA. I think ADD itself is a bigger market than people think, due to its diplomatic nature.

3) Are there any new airlines that would consider ADD? Would be nice to have a return of KLM, Lufthansa, or even British Airways. One stops, I've found are crucial to making flights profitable in Africa, and maybe KLM could do what they used to, and added a one stop to make the route work. I just feel like ADD could use representation of other alliances. I know for sure that Ethiopian's growth directly correlates with the lack of other airlines (besides ME carriers like Emirates or Qatar).

4) Does anyone have load factors for flights to and from ADD on all airlines?


Ethiopian Airlines served Amsterdam in 2000s. In the same time KLM started to serve Addis Ababa in 2005 (https://allafrica.com/stories/200503250311.html), but they closed the route in 2013 https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... arch-2013/

About British Airways in last 10-12 years they closed many routes in Africa: Luanda, Entebbe, Dar Es Salaam, Lusaka, Monrovia, Freetown and Victoria. I don't think that British Airways to resume or open routes to Africa like Air France is doing now. Furthermore with Qatar Airways, Royal Air Maroc and probably soon RwandAir in Oneworld British Airways has enough partnerships in Africa.

About ME, ADD was well served. Yemenia, Etihad, Gulf Air have served ADD few times ago. Currently you have Saudi Arabian, Qatar Airways, Emirates, Jazeera Airways and soon Kuwait Airways.

Ethiopian Airlines has big network and thanks to its hub many routes are served at least 1 time a day and sometimes more. So it's very diffucult for an airline to compete with them.
 
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B747-437B
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:04 pm

yoshoward12 wrote:
Would it be advantageous for busier markets in Europe to have morning flights to ADD on Ethiopian? Maybe some with higher P2P figures? I am thinking they could take advantage of connecting pax in places like LHR or FRA. I think ADD itself is a bigger market than people think, due to its diplomatic nature.


Pre-COVID there were flights to FCO and LHR in the "third bank" (ie. afternoon bank) which is slowly being reconstituted. It was designed for O&D traffic as well as connections to India, South Africa and key markets in East Africa.

The reality is that ET is torn between opening up new European markets (or additional frequencies) with the 737 Max at the risk of diluting their widebody product in those markets, versus using the Max to replace less fuel efficient 738s on the thinner Central/Southern Africa and Middle East routes. For now, the latter seems to be winning out, but that will probably change for the S23 season as the third bank expands further.
 
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B747-437B
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Nov 30, 2022 8:15 pm

Ethiopian Airlines have taken delivery of 2 additional 737 Max-8 this week (ET-AWF and ET-AWG), taking their fleet up to 10 of the type.

These two airframes had been in storage since 2019 due to the suspension of deliveries.
 
yoshoward12
Posts: 161
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:00 pm

B747-437B wrote:
yoshoward12 wrote:
Would it be advantageous for busier markets in Europe to have morning flights to ADD on Ethiopian? Maybe some with higher P2P figures? I am thinking they could take advantage of connecting pax in places like LHR or FRA. I think ADD itself is a bigger market than people think, due to its diplomatic nature.


Pre-COVID there were flights to FCO and LHR in the "third bank" (ie. afternoon bank) which is slowly being reconstituted. It was designed for O&D traffic as well as connections to India, South Africa and key markets in East Africa.

The reality is that ET is torn between opening up new European markets (or additional frequencies) with the 737 Max at the risk of diluting their widebody product in those markets, versus using the Max to replace less fuel efficient 738s on the thinner Central/Southern Africa and Middle East routes. For now, the latter seems to be winning out, but that will probably change for the S23 season as the third bank expands further.


So you think that the afternoon bank will see more O&D European routes? I never considered them with the MAX.
 
yoshoward12
Posts: 161
Joined: Thu Mar 17, 2022 2:51 pm

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Nov 30, 2022 10:28 pm

rukundo wrote:
yoshoward12 wrote:
Just looking for some opinions here:

1) Ethiopian Airlines announced their Vision 2035 plan, which included about 70 more destinations. I am fascinated by Ethiopian's European network, and I think there is room to expand here. Why is there not Amsterdam service, I am sure Ethiopian could sustain service, especially with a one stop. Do y'all think it is possible that AMS is included in one of the future destinations?

2) Would it be advantageous for busier markets in Europe to have morning flights to ADD on Ethiopian? Maybe some with higher P2P figures? I am thinking they could take advantage of connecting pax in places like LHR or FRA. I think ADD itself is a bigger market than people think, due to its diplomatic nature.

3) Are there any new airlines that would consider ADD? Would be nice to have a return of KLM, Lufthansa, or even British Airways. One stops, I've found are crucial to making flights profitable in Africa, and maybe KLM could do what they used to, and added a one stop to make the route work. I just feel like ADD could use representation of other alliances. I know for sure that Ethiopian's growth directly correlates with the lack of other airlines (besides ME carriers like Emirates or Qatar).

4) Does anyone have load factors for flights to and from ADD on all airlines?


Ethiopian Airlines served Amsterdam in 2000s. In the same time KLM started to serve Addis Ababa in 2005 (https://allafrica.com/stories/200503250311.html), but they closed the route in 2013 https://www.routesonline.com/news/38/ai ... arch-2013/

About British Airways in last 10-12 years they closed many routes in Africa: Luanda, Entebbe, Dar Es Salaam, Lusaka, Monrovia, Freetown and Victoria. I don't think that British Airways to resume or open routes to Africa like Air France is doing now. Furthermore with Qatar Airways, Royal Air Maroc and probably soon RwandAir in Oneworld British Airways has enough partnerships in Africa.

About ME, ADD was well served. Yemenia, Etihad, Gulf Air have served ADD few times ago. Currently you have Saudi Arabian, Qatar Airways, Emirates, Jazeera Airways and soon Kuwait Airways.

Ethiopian Airlines has big network and thanks to its hub many routes are served at least 1 time a day and sometimes more. So it's very diffucult for an airline to compete with them.


Right, but what about unserved or previously served cities and the chances of resumption. Markets like Madrid, Barcelona, Dublin, Amsterdam, etc. As said below, Ethiopian COULD use a MAX on some of the shorter European markets, but could pose an issue for aircraft to use on thinner, closer markets. I’m guessing these decisions will be made as Ethiopian gets more aircraft, as noted in Vision 2035.
 
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B747-437B
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Nov 30, 2022 11:56 pm

yoshoward12 wrote:
So you think that the afternoon bank will see more O&D European routes? I never considered them with the MAX.


The afternoon bank isn't strong enough yet to grow with widebodies (and importantly, there aren't enough widebodies in the pipeline to provide that level of lift anyway). The Max into Europe is a low risk option to improve utility and connectivity much like the overnight Middle East flights do for the 737 NG fleet. But, as I said before, there is split opinion within Ethiopian as to whether this is the smartest course of action. The 100-120 seater order that Ethiopian is likely to place in 2023 (a final decision pending between the A220 and the E2) will also give them additional options, if not into Europe itself but to free up daytime lift that can be redeployed there.
 
yoshoward12
Posts: 161
Joined: Thu Mar 17, 2022 2:51 pm

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Thu Dec 01, 2022 1:47 am

B747-437B wrote:
yoshoward12 wrote:
So you think that the afternoon bank will see more O&D European routes? I never considered them with the MAX.


The afternoon bank isn't strong enough yet to grow with widebodies (and importantly, there aren't enough widebodies in the pipeline to provide that level of lift anyway). The Max into Europe is a low risk option to improve utility and connectivity much like the overnight Middle East flights do for the 737 NG fleet. But, as I said before, there is split opinion within Ethiopian as to whether this is the smartest course of action. The 100-120 seater order that Ethiopian is likely to place in 2023 (a final decision pending between the A220 and the E2) will also give them additional options, if not into Europe itself but to free up daytime lift that can be redeployed there.


Personally, I like the idea using the MAX for flights to places like FCO or even MXP. Also, as I'm sure you are aware, the new order of widebodies should be coming soon as well, which I expect to possibly include either more Dreamliners/A350s. However, I feel like Ethiopian should expand their MAX orders to include the -9 or even -10, to slot beneath the Dreamliner. These, along with the -8 could offer decent capacity to smaller, further markets for ET like AMS in Europe, places in W. Africa, and deeper India.
 
rukundo
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:14 pm

Sorry folks another Rwandan Aviation info

During the Africa Tourism Business Forum, the commercial director of RwandAir announced that they are targeting North Africa. No country is mentioned. The only destination that would seem plausible would be Cairo. I don't see them to serve Algiers, Tunis, Tripoli or Casablanca. Casablanca would make sense if RwandAir joins Oneworld or sign a patnership with RAM (Qatar Airways owns part of RAM). RwandAir taking advantage of the RAM hub for West Africa, North America and Europe. CMN can tap into pax in transit flying to Kigali and East and Southern Africa via Kigali.

RAM had a code share with Kenya Airways when they served Nairobi and many RAM wanted to serve Kigali last time was March 2016 (https://www.newtimes.co.rw/article/126723/News/moroccos -national-carrier-to-start-direct-flights-between-kigali-and-casablanca)... Kigali appears on the RAM website. The RAM had its AT code on the former Qatar Airways Kigali Doha flight.

Rwanda has become Morocco's privileged partner in East Africa (investment in banks, agriculture and health). Kagame and Mohamed 6 have very very good relations. Wait and see..

The Rwandan government has published its report for the fiscal year 2021/2022 on infrastructure. It is the JICA (Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA)) which plays the role of expertise and advises Rwandans.

About RwandAir or Kigali airport there is confusion, because the same figures appear for both. For the fiscal year 2020/21 we learn that 277,942 passengers were welcomed by RwandAir or by Kigali airport. And for the 2021/2022 fiscal year we are at 615,215 px against 1,151,300 pax for the 2018/19 fiscal year. The figure that is clear is that for the next fiscal year they hope to reach 1,333,032 pax for RwandAir.

For the next fiscal year, the goal is for RwandAir to have 31 destinations (24 currently). RwandAir mechanics were sent to Qatar for training. 16 pilots from a promotion of the AKagera AViation School joined RwandAir. 12 others will join the airline this month. The airline keeps improving its maintenance dept. The partnership with Qatar Airways should allow to RwandAir to increase its activities, develop its cargo department and help to acquire new aircraft.

RwandAir has completed its restructuring plan. No figures about losses caused by covid. We also learn that RwandAir has a code share partnership with British Airways. It's probably in project because I haven't heard of it. But since they serve London it will "feed" the LHR-Kigali route

Rwanda has allocated a budget of 5,258,984.1 Euro to the Rwanda Airport Company

https://www.mininfra.gov.rw/index.php?e ... 9fd0772ff6

https://www.mininfra.gov.rw/index.php?e ... 8123b0911f

https://www.mininfra.gov.rw/index.php?e ... 139f384812

With its new airport, Rwanda wants to become an air hub in the region https://www-rfi-fr.translate.goog/fr/po ... r_pto=wapp
 
berari
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 02, 2022 9:03 pm

yoshoward12 wrote:
B747-437B wrote:
yoshoward12 wrote:
Would it be advantageous for busier markets in Europe to have morning flights to ADD on Ethiopian? Maybe some with higher P2P figures? I am thinking they could take advantage of connecting pax in places like LHR or FRA. I think ADD itself is a bigger market than people think, due to its diplomatic nature.


Pre-COVID there were flights to FCO and LHR in the "third bank" (ie. afternoon bank) which is slowly being reconstituted. It was designed for O&D traffic as well as connections to India, South Africa and key markets in East Africa.

The reality is that ET is torn between opening up new European markets (or additional frequencies) with the 737 Max at the risk of diluting their widebody product in those markets, versus using the Max to replace less fuel efficient 738s on the thinner Central/Southern Africa and Middle East routes. For now, the latter seems to be winning out, but that will probably change for the S23 season as the third bank expands further.


So you think that the afternoon bank will see more O&D European routes? I never considered them with the MAX.


B747-437B wrote:
yoshoward12 wrote:
So you think that the afternoon bank will see more O&D European routes? I never considered them with the MAX.


The afternoon bank isn't strong enough yet to grow with widebodies (and importantly, there aren't enough widebodies in the pipeline to provide that level of lift anyway). The Max into Europe is a low risk option to improve utility and connectivity much like the overnight Middle East flights do for the 737 NG fleet. But, as I said before, there is split opinion within Ethiopian as to whether this is the smartest course of action. The 100-120 seater order that Ethiopian is likely to place in 2023 (a final decision pending between the A220 and the E2) will also give them additional options, if not into Europe itself but to free up daytime lift that can be redeployed there.


Morning departures out of Europe for connections in ADD in the evening need to be supported by a strong bank with departures to African cities. We do see the latter now more than ever before, with night time flights to Nairobi, Dar, Entebbe, Kigali, Kinshasa, Lusaka, Harare, Johannesburg, Khartoum. The morning departures out of Europe that we have seen in the past have been London and Rome, but both are backed by strong O&D demand. Recall initially that ET and LH were offering both daytime and nighttime departures, but today even in LH's absence from ADD skies, ET has not increased frequency. This could be because of the LH brand that allowed double daily flights, or some other limitations including traffic not back up to the level it was at (geopolitical issues included.)

We see expansion of the third bank, or even daytime flights of ADD with some destinations including Tel Aviv popping up. We have in the past seen Guangzhou at the third bank, and remains to be seen as/when China opens up.

The daytime bank creates an opportunity for ET to toggle between O&D and transit passengers, while at the same time providing the frequencies it has today. This would also support constraints at ADD and make room for more flights during traditional morning and evening banks. For example, the evening bank to Beirut sees two daily flights leaving within a couple of hours; one of these flights could be timed to depart in the afternoon bank at around 1630 with the second leaving around 2200 as per usual, with staggered returns in the morning to feed West Africa (with earlier departures out of ADD) then the rest of the African network. With BEY supported by a larger O&D traffic, an afternoon bank departure may not require an African feed. DXB could also be added to such pattern.

Regarding the 737MAX to Europe, I see the opportunity here, but also the challenge it can create with the widebody product. I believe that the widebodies also provide the lift required with belly hold. MAX can be used to provide additional frequencies to nearer European destinations including FCO, MRS, more IST and ATH. It can also be used for more frequencies to Middle East and India. These will however require further overnight frequencies to/from Africa to build up.
 
yoshoward12
Posts: 161
Joined: Thu Mar 17, 2022 2:51 pm

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 02, 2022 9:26 pm

berari wrote:
yoshoward12 wrote:
B747-437B wrote:

Pre-COVID there were flights to FCO and LHR in the "third bank" (ie. afternoon bank) which is slowly being reconstituted. It was designed for O&D traffic as well as connections to India, South Africa and key markets in East Africa.

The reality is that ET is torn between opening up new European markets (or additional frequencies) with the 737 Max at the risk of diluting their widebody product in those markets, versus using the Max to replace less fuel efficient 738s on the thinner Central/Southern Africa and Middle East routes. For now, the latter seems to be winning out, but that will probably change for the S23 season as the third bank expands further.


So you think that the afternoon bank will see more O&D European routes? I never considered them with the MAX.


B747-437B wrote:
yoshoward12 wrote:
So you think that the afternoon bank will see more O&D European routes? I never considered them with the MAX.


The afternoon bank isn't strong enough yet to grow with widebodies (and importantly, there aren't enough widebodies in the pipeline to provide that level of lift anyway). The Max into Europe is a low risk option to improve utility and connectivity much like the overnight Middle East flights do for the 737 NG fleet. But, as I said before, there is split opinion within Ethiopian as to whether this is the smartest course of action. The 100-120 seater order that Ethiopian is likely to place in 2023 (a final decision pending between the A220 and the E2) will also give them additional options, if not into Europe itself but to free up daytime lift that can be redeployed there.


Morning departures out of Europe for connections in ADD in the evening need to be supported by a strong bank with departures to African cities. We do see the latter now more than ever before, with night time flights to Nairobi, Dar, Entebbe, Kigali, Kinshasa, Lusaka, Harare, Johannesburg, Khartoum. The morning departures out of Europe that we have seen in the past have been London and Rome, but both are backed by strong O&D demand. Recall initially that ET and LH were offering both daytime and nighttime departures, but today even in LH's absence from ADD skies, ET has not increased frequency. This could be because of the LH brand that allowed double daily flights, or some other limitations including traffic not back up to the level it was at (geopolitical issues included.)

We see expansion of the third bank, or even daytime flights of ADD with some destinations including Tel Aviv popping up. We have in the past seen Guangzhou at the third bank, and remains to be seen as/when China opens up.

The daytime bank creates an opportunity for ET to toggle between O&D and transit passengers, while at the same time providing the frequencies it has today. This would also support constraints at ADD and make room for more flights during traditional morning and evening banks. For example, the evening bank to Beirut sees two daily flights leaving within a couple of hours; one of these flights could be timed to depart in the afternoon bank at around 1630 with the second leaving around 2200 as per usual, with staggered returns in the morning to feed West Africa (with earlier departures out of ADD) then the rest of the African network. With BEY supported by a larger O&D traffic, an afternoon bank departure may not require an African feed. DXB could also be added to such pattern.

Regarding the 737MAX to Europe, I see the opportunity here, but also the challenge it can create with the widebody product. I believe that the widebodies also provide the lift required with belly hold. MAX can be used to provide additional frequencies to nearer European destinations including FCO, MRS, more IST and ATH. It can also be used for more frequencies to Middle East and India. These will however require further overnight frequencies to/from Africa to build up.


I do believe that morning departures, like the ones mentioned before (mainly LHR) are fantastic for pax bridging LHR and ADD. I feel like this could be true with a second FRA flight if LH decides to return, or if Ethiopian wants to throw a 788/789 on it. Other airlines like Air France and KLM perfectly time these morning departures to take advantage from arriving pax from the US, that are continuing to places like NBO, ZNZ, JRO, etc., and I believe doing it this way, has resulted in LFs they have enjoyed. It may be a matter of time before Ethiopian does it again, but I for sure see it as a possibility.

For the MAX, yes, we see the IST and ATH flights which I believe work well, but I could see it work well for Italian markets as well as a second daily or 3x weekly or so option. I see the dilemma of diluting the widebody product, but as a second flight, catered to O&D pax, should that not be too big of an issue? Could even increase utility to connect deeper into Africa, by departing in the morning, to the various markets you've mentioned.

Lastly, what about widebody fleet renewal? They obviously love the A350, and as we all know are taking the -1000 variant. What do you all see ET replacing the 77Ls with? I personally think a fresh dreamliner order, consisting of -8s, -9s, and -10s would do the trick. I am a supporter of the -10, to replace the 777s on flights to Nairobi, Lagos, Malabo, Yaounde, etc. The 777s will likely be converted, and the 300ERs replaced by the A350-1000. Thoughts?
 
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 02, 2022 9:59 pm

berari wrote:
Morning departures out of Europe for connections in ADD in the evening need to be supported by a strong bank with departures to African cities. We do see the latter now more than ever before, with night time flights to Nairobi, Dar, Entebbe, Kigali, Kinshasa, Lusaka, Harare, Johannesburg, Khartoum. The morning departures out of Europe that we have seen in the past have been London and Rome, but both are backed by strong O&D demand.


The priority for ET, at least in early-2020 before COVID put everything on hold, was to build West Africa out of the third bank. There was intention to launch second dailies to Accra and Lagos to begin with using narrowbodies (fed from India, East Africa and Beirut primarily), and also increase the number of African markets in the night bank (Lilongwe was one of those). A lot of this vision was being driven by Esayas Woldemariam though who is now CEO at ASKY, so I presume that things have changed somewhat with Lemma Yadecha in charge of commercial.

Regarding the 737MAX to Europe, I see the opportunity here, but also the challenge it can create with the widebody product. I believe that the widebodies also provide the lift required with belly hold. MAX can be used to provide additional frequencies to nearer European destinations including FCO, MRS, more IST and ATH.


You hit the nail on the head. The Max to Europe would most likely be used as supplementary frequency rather than primary frequency especially in markets where the fresh produce and flower exports are so lucrative for belly cargo.

What do you all see ET replacing the 77Ls with? I personally think a fresh dreamliner order, consisting of -8s, -9s, and -10s would do the trick.


I doubt it. I think we'll see Boeing get more Max orders, but the widebody go to Airbus. I remember Tewolde saying once that the A350 has blown the 787 out of the water in terms of efficiency in ET's operation. Short of politics interfering (which is a huge issue given the Tigray situation so I wouldn't rule it out), I don't see more 787s at ET. I would also love to see the E2 there however, because that aircraft can really provide versatility across both domestic and wider African markets (yes, the A220 can provide a similar business case as well, but I'm rooting for Embraer on this one!).
 
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Dec 03, 2022 12:40 am

yoshoward12 wrote:
berari wrote:
yoshoward12 wrote:
I do believe that morning departures, like the ones mentioned before (mainly LHR) are fantastic for pax bridging LHR and ADD. I feel like this could be true with a second FRA flight if LH decides to return, or if Ethiopian wants to throw a 788/789 on it. Other airlines like Air France and KLM perfectly time these morning departures to take advantage from arriving pax from the US, that are continuing to places like NBO, ZNZ, JRO, etc., and I believe doing it this way, has resulted in LFs they have enjoyed. It may be a matter of time before Ethiopian does it again, but I for sure see it as a possibility.

[...]

Lastly, what about widebody fleet renewal? They obviously love the A350, and as we all know are taking the -1000 variant. What do you all see ET replacing the 77Ls with? I personally think a fresh dreamliner order, consisting of -8s, -9s, and -10s would do the trick. I am a supporter of the -10, to replace the 777s on flights to Nairobi, Lagos, Malabo, Yaounde, etc. The 777s will likely be converted, and the 300ERs replaced by the A350-1000. Thoughts?


The Europe morning departures strategy you speak about works for the European airlines that take advantage for pax that arrive from North America. Ethiopian on the other hand is tapping into the US market by taking its own metal there to multiple points (IAD, EWR/JFK, ORD, YYZ) and looking to add further frequencies and points (IAD is 2x daily on some days and expected to go up to 14x per week; ET looks to reopen IAH at some point, more opportunities to go further into USA and add frequencies via West Africa, Montreal has been talked about etc.) Why would ET target connecting pax half way from Europe when it can get to them at the source? Today, all fares I see from Canada and USA to Africa that are published by ET have routings that connect at one of their North American points (IAD, EWR, JFK, YYZ, ORD.)

The commitment to A350 is clear, and we all expect the -1000 to replace the leased in B77Ws. I expect more A350s to replace the owned B77Ls which in turn will likely be converted into freighters. Unless ET finds something else, the gap between the A350 and B737-8 MAX needs to be filled with B788s. I have not understood the pursuit of B789s with additional orders of A350s. I also understand the need to diversify the fleet especially with recent examples of B78 and MAX groundings: your entire operations could go down if you have one fleet type.

A350: 348 seats
B789: 315 seats
B788: 270 seats
B77L: 321 seats
B737-8MAX: 158 seats

B747-437B wrote:

The priority for ET, at least in early-2020 before COVID put everything on hold, was to build West Africa out of the third bank. There was intention to launch second dailies to Accra and Lagos to begin with using narrowbodies (fed from India, East Africa and Beirut primarily), and also increase the number of African markets in the night bank (Lilongwe was one of those). A lot of this vision was being driven by Esayas Woldemariam though who is now CEO at ASKY, so I presume that things have changed somewhat with Lemma Yadecha in charge of commercial.

[...]



I doubt it. I think we'll see Boeing get more Max orders, but the widebody go to Airbus. I remember Tewolde saying once that the A350 has blown the 787 out of the water in terms of efficiency in ET's operation. Short of politics interfering (which is a huge issue given the Tigray situation so I wouldn't rule it out), I don't see more 787s at ET. I would also love to see the E2 there however, because that aircraft can really provide versatility across both domestic and wider African markets (yes, the A220 can provide a similar business case as well, but I'm rooting for Embraer on this one!).


The build towards West Africa out of the third bank is music to my ears, and would present a well timed overnight return to ADD similar to what we see with KQ into NBO. The third bank would need some tightening of the flights to/from India, and additional China frequencies would make it rock solid.

I am team Airbus A220 for the next order, and I am thinking of this outcome that will allow ET flexibility in managing future fleet plans, leverage and negotiations that could see it swapping Airbus aircraft orders of one type for another.

The CEO is on record from a week or two ago about the need for fleet rationalization.
 
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Dec 03, 2022 4:56 am

A few thoughts:

I wish ET installed AVOD in Y on the 737MAX, I think this would at least make the Y experience somewhat comparable to a wide body plane. I find it kind of weird that they only installed it in J

Also, I wonder if there are any prospects of A321neo in ET's fleet ? Seems like it could be a good fit in between the 737s and the 787s; this could be a great plane to serve thinner EU and African routes at higher frequency
 
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Dec 03, 2022 9:53 am

berari wrote:
I am team Airbus A220 for the next order, and I am thinking of this outcome that will allow ET flexibility in managing future fleet plans, leverage and negotiations that could see it swapping Airbus aircraft orders of one type for another. The CEO is on record from a week or two ago about the need for fleet rationalization.


The concern (not unique to Ethiopian) is that after the Russia sanctions situation, they don't want to put all their eggs in a single basket (whether that is US, EU or whatever). Embraer offers near-identical economics and a hedge against some sort of limited sanctions that may emerge from the Western nations depending on how the Tigray situation develops.
 
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:33 am

Ethiopia could be the first destination in East Africa for Air Algerie.

Air Algérie will open routes to Ethiopia and South Africa to increase its presence in sub-Saharan Africa. AH has been planning to open new routes in Africa for several years

https://djalia--dz-com.translate.goog/f ... r_pto=wapp

Before covid, AH was planning flights to Douala and Libreville (I don't know if they were operated) https://www-agenceecofin-com.translate. ... r_pto=wapp

Noted that with the closure of flights between Algeria and Morocco since 2021, a lot of pax go through Paris to flu between Casablanca & Algiers for example:( https://www-france24-com.translate.goog ... r_pto=wapp None of the West African airlines serve both Morocco and Algeria. I m takling about Air Cote d'Ivoire, Air Senegal or Mauritania Airlines. Remains Tunisair and Egyptair for Africa

It would indeed be a good thing for AH to add more routes in Africa. What Royal Air Maroc and Egyptair are doing well in Africa shows that it is possible to have a competitive network when you biggest competitors are majors such as Air France, KLM, Turkish Airlines Emirates or Qatar Airways.

Air Algérie has a very good network. Many secondary cities served in France, Spain or Italy. A good network in the Middle East and service to China and Canada. The USA is in project: https://observalgerie-com.translate.goo ... r_pto=wapp

The Algeria airport which has been modernized with the addition of a new terminal can absorb this traffic. Now, unlike RAM or Egyptair, which have strong point-to-point competition, which forced them to develop an Africa-rest of the world hub, Air Algérie is not in this case. Even if more and more airlines are landing in Algeria, there are still many restrictions. Air Algérie is sheltered.

AH should have to improve his product. The Algerians call it Air Couscous or so when an AH plane arrives at an airport. They say the couscous steamer has just arrived. not a nice nickname

The Algerian influence in Africa is weak and very far from that of Morocco or Egypt. Tunisair and Tunisia are in the same situation as Algeria and AH. Even if Tunisair will serve Douala in 2023/2024 https://ecomatin-net.translate.goog/tra ... r_pto=wapp

Below the airport of Algiers and the Air Algérie network


Image

Image
 
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Dec 03, 2022 5:56 pm

rukundo wrote:

Air France resumes Dar Es Salaam service from 12 June 2023. Tag service via Zanzibar.

https://corporate.airfrance.com/en/news ... ast-africa


CDG Dar Es Salaam route closed closed in the 90s. More info here. Since few years AF seems to want to rebuilt irs old network in East Africa, which is rather served by KLM.

Nairobi, Zanzibar, Dar Es Salaam. Who will be the next destination in East Africa for AF? Bujumbura (Burundi)? Entebbe (Uganda)? Kilimanjaro (Tanzania)? Kigali (Rwanda)? On Addis Ababa I don't really believe in it. Ethiopian Airlines locks its market very well. Khartoum in Sudan? I don't believe it either. The presence of companies from the Middle East is very present and Sudan is a difficult destination to make profitable. Even if the economic embargo was lifted in 2020, the Sudanese economy is still suffering and political instability still there with coups (2019 and 2021). About Juba (South Sudan), Asmara (Eritrea) and Mogadishu I think it is not in the map.

Small mistake: Tana is served by B777 and not by B787-9

Morocco, Ivory Coast, Kenya… Air France, what ambitions for 2023? https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1397702/ec ... s-en-2023/

The French flag, which displays on the continent a level of sales close to that of 2019, plans to strengthen in East Africa, but also in Nigeria, Mali and Benin.

" Resilient ". This is the word used by Olivier Piette, flight program director at Air France, to describe his company's activity in Africa. The area, which had been one of the first to recover in 2020, is, according to him, only "a few points below" its level of activity in 2019, driven by its flagship destinations - first and foremost Abidjan. and Dakar – but also by the opening of the route to Zanzibar, via Kenya, inaugurated in the winter of 2021.

Thus, the Air-France KLM network generated 1.291 billion euros in sales in the Africa Middle East zone in the first half of 2022, compared to 1.357 billion euros in 2019, a decrease of 4.9%, compared to 13 .2% overall.

Better, the company has already planned to offer, from the second half of 2023, more capacity to sub-Saharan Africa than before the crisis, even if, acknowledges Olivier Piette, "the growth potential there is now more limited than 'elsewhere', with Air France already having a strong presence on the continent.

Thus, the Air-France KLM network generated 1.291 billion euros in sales in the Africa Middle East zone in the first half of 2022, compared to 1.357 billion euros in 2019, a decrease of 4.9%, compared to 13 .2% overall.

Better, the company has already planned to offer, from the second half of 2023, more capacity to sub-Saharan Africa than before the crisis, even if, acknowledges Olivier Piette, "the growth potential there is now more limited than 'elsewhere', with Air France already having a strong presence on the continent.

Direction Tanzania, first African destination in 2022 (2023 I would say ^^)

The carrier has nevertheless planned to open, on June 12, the Dar-es-Salam destination, which will be coupled to Zanzibar, in order to serve Kenya on a direct daily line, "which will mechanically increase our capacities towards Kenya, since some of the seats had previously been occupied by passengers traveling to Zanzibar", specifies the program director.

The coupling with Zanzibar will allow Air France to secure its new route, while the Tanzanian capital was recently abandoned by Lufthansa due to lack of profitability. "There is a real complementarity between the two destinations, Zanzibar is very touristy while Dar-es-Salam will meet the demand for cargo transport and bring in business customers", explains Olivier Piette.

For us, Tanzania is a perennial destination

The French company takes all the less risk with Tanzania as the country, which has only 28 international air connections (compared to 40 for Kenya and South Africa), can already present itself, ahead of Egypt, as the number one tourist destination in the Africa/Middle East region in 2022 according to ForwardKeys, which is based on airline ticket sales. Lufthansa had also combined its departure from Dar-es-Salam with an increase in frequencies to Zanzibar and Kilimanjaro.

On KLM land

This development of Air France in East Africa, traditionally the preserve of KLM, is being done "in a coordinated and complementary manner" with the Dutch partner of the French company, assures Olivier Piette, specifying that "the days of operation of the two companies will be complementary to offer an almost daily service "of Zanzibar, from Paris or Amsterdam. The exercise is further facilitated by the fact that KLM, still faced with operational difficulties – in particular congestion at Amsterdam-Schiphol airport – is not currently in a position to expand its network itself. But Air France does not see its new route as a simple fallback position until its partner raises its head. "For us, Tanzania is a perennial destination", says Olivier Piette.

Alongside this opening of the line, Air France also aims to switch to daily service to Lagos – against five frequencies per week currently – and to increase its frequencies to Antananarivo, from four to five weekly flights. On this destination, the company has also planned to replace its Boeing 787s with Airbus A350s, "latest generation aircraft that offer more capacity, 25% lower fuel consumption and 40% less noise and the latest travel cabins (Economy, Premium Economy and Business)”, specifies the company. A movement already operated at the beginning of November on the destinations Bamako and Libreville.

In Benin, the wish of the French flag to increase its frequencies from five to seven weekly services concomitantly with the arrival of Corsair having clashed with the local authorities, Air France has so far only added one flight, but is confident about going daily on April 1.
No scheduled coordination with Air Côte d'Ivoire

Asked about the future of the destination Abidjan when Air Côte d'Ivoire, of which Air France is a minority shareholder, will have taken possession of its A330s and will fly to Paris in 2025, Olivier Piette is formal: for him, he is "no way to get out of this market". "We will study the possibilities", he declares, assuring that "it would be logical to open a classic cooperation, of the code-sharing type", but that "two competing companies, even with a commercial partnership, do not 'have no right to coordinate their flight plan'.

A point also highlighted on the question of the increase in capacity between Paris and Nairobi: Kenya Airways, a partner of Air France-KLM via the Skyteam alliance, also operates this route on a daily basis.



Air France's activity in North Africa is more difficult to analyze: in the results, Maghreb destinations are mixed with European cities in the group's medium-haul network. Olivier Piette, however, specifies that the figures for Morocco and Algeria are better than before the crisis: "Our growth in Algeria comes from the fact that, like Transavia, we have recovered part of the rights of Aigle Azur [which went bankrupt in September 2019, Ed]. As for Morocco, we have increased our frequencies there to Marrakech and opened routes between Orly and Casablanca, in addition to those that existed from Roissy, "he explains.

Transavia in Dakar: "no impact" on Air France's results

Move along, nothing to see. Asked about the consequences, in terms of attendance, of the arrival of Transavia, its low-cost subsidiary, in Dakar – with weekly flights from Nantes since May and from Lyon since the beginning of November – Olivier Piette believes that there were none.

“We have complementary products and we target different markets,” he explains. What Nicolas Hénin, deputy general manager of Transavia France, had also assured Jeune Afrique in September.

Above all, the air market between France and Senegal, drastically constrained by bilateral agreements between the two countries, still enjoys greater demand than supply, which makes it particularly comfortable to operate for airlines.

N.F.
 
yoshoward12
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:14 pm

iadadd wrote:
A few thoughts:

I wish ET installed AVOD in Y on the 737MAX, I think this would at least make the Y experience somewhat comparable to a wide body plane. I find it kind of weird that they only installed it in J

Also, I wonder if there are any prospects of A321neo in ET's fleet ? Seems like it could be a good fit in between the 737s and the 787s; this could be a great plane to serve thinner EU and African routes at higher frequency


I read somewhere that Ethiopian did their due diligence on the 21N but because of the MAX, it wouldn't make much sense to operate two aircraft in the same segment. As talked about before, any MAX flights to Europe would be in the same spirit as the current ones. ET operates the MAX to IST and ATH, so maybe running it to FCO is an option. I think next year we will get a clearer picture on what the plans are for fleet growth, and how the network will change and grow. In my previous posts, I advocated for flights to AMS, which probably would have worked with the 21N idea, but I guess I'll hope for dreamliner service!
 
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:16 pm

rukundo wrote:
rukundo wrote:

Air France resumes Dar Es Salaam service from 12 June 2023. Tag service via Zanzibar.

https://corporate.airfrance.com/en/news ... ast-africa


CDG Dar Es Salaam route closed closed in the 90s. More info here. Since few years AF seems to want to rebuilt irs old network in East Africa, which is rather served by KLM.

Nairobi, Zanzibar, Dar Es Salaam. Who will be the next destination in East Africa for AF? Bujumbura (Burundi)? Entebbe (Uganda)? Kilimanjaro (Tanzania)? Kigali (Rwanda)? On Addis Ababa I don't really believe in it. Ethiopian Airlines locks its market very well. Khartoum in Sudan? I don't believe it either. The presence of companies from the Middle East is very present and Sudan is a difficult destination to make profitable. Even if the economic embargo was lifted in 2020, the Sudanese economy is still suffering and political instability still there with coups (2019 and 2021). About Juba (South Sudan), Asmara (Eritrea) and Mogadishu I think it is not in the map.

Small mistake: Tana is served by B777 and not by B787-9

Morocco, Ivory Coast, Kenya… Air France, what ambitions for 2023? https://www.jeuneafrique.com/1397702/ec ... s-en-2023/

The French flag, which displays on the continent a level of sales close to that of 2019, plans to strengthen in East Africa, but also in Nigeria, Mali and Benin.

" Resilient ". This is the word used by Olivier Piette, flight program director at Air France, to describe his company's activity in Africa. The area, which had been one of the first to recover in 2020, is, according to him, only "a few points below" its level of activity in 2019, driven by its flagship destinations - first and foremost Abidjan. and Dakar – but also by the opening of the route to Zanzibar, via Kenya, inaugurated in the winter of 2021.

Thus, the Air-France KLM network generated 1.291 billion euros in sales in the Africa Middle East zone in the first half of 2022, compared to 1.357 billion euros in 2019, a decrease of 4.9%, compared to 13 .2% overall.

Better, the company has already planned to offer, from the second half of 2023, more capacity to sub-Saharan Africa than before the crisis, even if, acknowledges Olivier Piette, "the growth potential there is now more limited than 'elsewhere', with Air France already having a strong presence on the continent.

Thus, the Air-France KLM network generated 1.291 billion euros in sales in the Africa Middle East zone in the first half of 2022, compared to 1.357 billion euros in 2019, a decrease of 4.9%, compared to 13 .2% overall.

Better, the company has already planned to offer, from the second half of 2023, more capacity to sub-Saharan Africa than before the crisis, even if, acknowledges Olivier Piette, "the growth potential there is now more limited than 'elsewhere', with Air France already having a strong presence on the continent.

Direction Tanzania, first African destination in 2022 (2023 I would say ^^)

The carrier has nevertheless planned to open, on June 12, the Dar-es-Salam destination, which will be coupled to Zanzibar, in order to serve Kenya on a direct daily line, "which will mechanically increase our capacities towards Kenya, since some of the seats had previously been occupied by passengers traveling to Zanzibar", specifies the program director.

The coupling with Zanzibar will allow Air France to secure its new route, while the Tanzanian capital was recently abandoned by Lufthansa due to lack of profitability. "There is a real complementarity between the two destinations, Zanzibar is very touristy while Dar-es-Salam will meet the demand for cargo transport and bring in business customers", explains Olivier Piette.

For us, Tanzania is a perennial destination

The French company takes all the less risk with Tanzania as the country, which has only 28 international air connections (compared to 40 for Kenya and South Africa), can already present itself, ahead of Egypt, as the number one tourist destination in the Africa/Middle East region in 2022 according to ForwardKeys, which is based on airline ticket sales. Lufthansa had also combined its departure from Dar-es-Salam with an increase in frequencies to Zanzibar and Kilimanjaro.

On KLM land

This development of Air France in East Africa, traditionally the preserve of KLM, is being done "in a coordinated and complementary manner" with the Dutch partner of the French company, assures Olivier Piette, specifying that "the days of operation of the two companies will be complementary to offer an almost daily service "of Zanzibar, from Paris or Amsterdam. The exercise is further facilitated by the fact that KLM, still faced with operational difficulties – in particular congestion at Amsterdam-Schiphol airport – is not currently in a position to expand its network itself. But Air France does not see its new route as a simple fallback position until its partner raises its head. "For us, Tanzania is a perennial destination", says Olivier Piette.

Alongside this opening of the line, Air France also aims to switch to daily service to Lagos – against five frequencies per week currently – and to increase its frequencies to Antananarivo, from four to five weekly flights. On this destination, the company has also planned to replace its Boeing 787s with Airbus A350s, "latest generation aircraft that offer more capacity, 25% lower fuel consumption and 40% less noise and the latest travel cabins (Economy, Premium Economy and Business)”, specifies the company. A movement already operated at the beginning of November on the destinations Bamako and Libreville.

In Benin, the wish of the French flag to increase its frequencies from five to seven weekly services concomitantly with the arrival of Corsair having clashed with the local authorities, Air France has so far only added one flight, but is confident about going daily on April 1.
No scheduled coordination with Air Côte d'Ivoire

Asked about the future of the destination Abidjan when Air Côte d'Ivoire, of which Air France is a minority shareholder, will have taken possession of its A330s and will fly to Paris in 2025, Olivier Piette is formal: for him, he is "no way to get out of this market". "We will study the possibilities", he declares, assuring that "it would be logical to open a classic cooperation, of the code-sharing type", but that "two competing companies, even with a commercial partnership, do not 'have no right to coordinate their flight plan'.

A point also highlighted on the question of the increase in capacity between Paris and Nairobi: Kenya Airways, a partner of Air France-KLM via the Skyteam alliance, also operates this route on a daily basis.



Air France's activity in North Africa is more difficult to analyze: in the results, Maghreb destinations are mixed with European cities in the group's medium-haul network. Olivier Piette, however, specifies that the figures for Morocco and Algeria are better than before the crisis: "Our growth in Algeria comes from the fact that, like Transavia, we have recovered part of the rights of Aigle Azur [which went bankrupt in September 2019, Ed]. As for Morocco, we have increased our frequencies there to Marrakech and opened routes between Orly and Casablanca, in addition to those that existed from Roissy, "he explains.

Transavia in Dakar: "no impact" on Air France's results

Move along, nothing to see. Asked about the consequences, in terms of attendance, of the arrival of Transavia, its low-cost subsidiary, in Dakar – with weekly flights from Nantes since May and from Lyon since the beginning of November – Olivier Piette believes that there were none.

“We have complementary products and we target different markets,” he explains. What Nicolas Hénin, deputy general manager of Transavia France, had also assured Jeune Afrique in September.

Above all, the air market between France and Senegal, drastically constrained by bilateral agreements between the two countries, still enjoys greater demand than supply, which makes it particularly comfortable to operate for airlines.

N.F.


Like you said, Ethiopian covers their market so well, it seems like the more they grow, the more other airlines shrink there over the years. Due to its growth and diplomatic nature, I truly believe representation from other alliances like Skyteam at ADD would work. It has in the past.
 
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B747-437B
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Dec 03, 2022 10:59 pm

rukundo wrote:


You seem to be on a tear of posting all of Nelly Fualdes' articles recently! :)

She's in Dakar for the AFRAA AGM this week so I'm sure there will be a lot more coming.
 
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Dec 04, 2022 1:47 am

iadadd wrote:
Also, I wonder if there are any prospects of A321neo in ET's fleet ? Seems like it could be a good fit in between the 737s and the 787s; this could be a great plane to serve thinner EU and African routes at higher frequency


Not every gap needs to be filled. Firstly, the A321neo will have payload restrictions out of ADD and the longer range versions trade a fair amount of cargo volume to carry fuel. ET is relatively more cargo dependent than the average carrier. So the benefits of the A321neo in terms of size and range are negligible to ET. Secondly, ET doesn't have a significantly liberal air services agreement relationship with many European countries, so it is fait accompli that they could increase frequencies where they want to. For example, all else being held constant, they could not double up frequencies to FRA.
 
rukundo
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Dec 04, 2022 4:35 am

B747-437B wrote:
rukundo wrote:


You seem to be on a tear of posting all of Nelly Fualdes' articles recently! :)

She's in Dakar for the AFRAA AGM this week so I'm sure there will be a lot more coming.


Yes in deed, i like her article. I remmember that before Rémy Darras written also articles about Aviation in Africa. I followed him on twitter and he followed me.

Agent Ecofin and Africa Intelligence have also good articles about aviation in Africa.
 
iadadd
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Dec 04, 2022 6:23 am

yoshoward12 wrote:
Due to its growth and diplomatic nature, I truly believe representation from other alliances like Skyteam at ADD would work. It has in the past.


Eh.. Skyteam has never really been big at ADD. KQ has had at most 2x daily, and SV operated 1xDaily (split between RUH and JED) pre-COVID. Only other Skyteam service into ADD was KLM's 3x weekly service to AMS, which ended in 2013.

ADD, while being a decent sized market, isn't really large enough to attract a multitude of foreign carriers and this is largely because of how large ET's operation is. Other factors include: the market's strong brand loyalty to ET, and protective bilateral agreements set by the Ethiopian Govt. With the exception of maybe a few more Star Alliance carriers in the near term, I wouldn't expect much growth in foreign carriers to ADD.
 
yoshoward12
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Dec 04, 2022 5:52 pm

iadadd wrote:
yoshoward12 wrote:
Due to its growth and diplomatic nature, I truly believe representation from other alliances like Skyteam at ADD would work. It has in the past.


Eh.. Skyteam has never really been big at ADD. KQ has had at most 2x daily, and SV operated 1xDaily (split between RUH and JED) pre-COVID. Only other Skyteam service into ADD was KLM's 3x weekly service to AMS, which ended in 2013.

ADD, while being a decent sized market, isn't really large enough to attract a multitude of foreign carriers and this is largely because of how large ET's operation is. Other factors include: the market's strong brand loyalty to ET, and protective bilateral agreements set by the Ethiopian Govt. With the exception of maybe a few more Star Alliance carriers in the near term, I wouldn't expect much growth in foreign carriers to ADD.


I completely agree, I would just argue that Ethiopian’s growth is directly correlated with the loss of Int’l carriers. What star alliance carriers are you thinking of?
 
berari
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Dec 04, 2022 7:56 pm

yoshoward12 wrote:
In my previous posts, I advocated for flights to AMS, which probably would have worked with the 21N idea, but I guess I'll hope for dreamliner service!


AMS would open with a one stop at its existing Star Alliance hub destinations or well established FCO/MXP.

evanb wrote:
Not every gap needs to be filled. Firstly, the A321neo will have payload restrictions out of ADD and the longer range versions trade a fair amount of cargo volume to carry fuel. ET is relatively more cargo dependent than the average carrier. So the benefits of the A321neo in terms of size and range are negligible to ET. Secondly, ET doesn't have a significantly liberal air services agreement relationship with many European countries, so it is fait accompli that they could increase frequencies where they want to. For example, all else being held constant, they could not double up frequencies to FRA.


Why a lack of liberal air services agreement? Is it Ethiopia's protectionist stance or vice versa? Are European air services agreements published anywhere for public consumption?
 
rukundo
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 4:42 pm

B747-437B wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Not necessarily, KQ still has lots of connecting traffic from joberg.


KQ are doubling down on South Africa as a source market with the 4th daily Johannesburg flight and the upgrade of aircraft on Cape Town from E190 to 738 to 787 over the peak period. The partnership with SAA helps to steer previously SAA-captive corporate traffic their way over the Nairobi hub to the entire region. I wouldn't be surprised to see them open Durban next with the E190, and possibly reintroduce Mombasa-Johannesburg at some point during the year as the plan to expand the focus city there with O&D focused routes grows.


It seems that Kenya Airways wants to serve Durban. Seen on the South African Official Gazette.

Ethiopian Airlines in 2015 had relaunched its route to Durban 16 years after its closure. The line had been operated year-round before being seasonal and finally closed (https://www-financialafrik-com.translat ... r_pto=wapp) . In the case of Kenya Airways it would make sense since South African Airways and Kenya Airways want to merge. KQ already serves Cape Town and Johannesburg in South Africa.

This gazette is also available free online at http://www.gpwonline.co.za

STAATSKOERANT, 18 NOVEMbER 2022 No. 47526 409
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT

NOTICE 1430 OF 2022

INTERNATIONAL AIR SERVICE ACT, (ACT NO.60 OF 1993) GRANT /AMENDMENT OF INTERNATIONAL AIR SERVICE LICENSE

KENYA AIRWAYS LTD. (B) P.O BOX 19002-00501, Embakisi, Nairobi, Kenya (C) Class I (D) Type S2 (E) B737-300, Reg. 5Y-KQC; 5Y-KQD; B787-7 5Y-KZB and 5Y-KZA (F) and (G) Pointd in Kenya to Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town international airports (H) Seven flights per week (7)

https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/ ... en1430.pdf
 
MileHFL400
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 5:58 pm

rukundo wrote:
B747-437B wrote:
MileHFL400 wrote:
Not necessarily, KQ still has lots of connecting traffic from joberg.


KQ are doubling down on South Africa as a source market with the 4th daily Johannesburg flight and the upgrade of aircraft on Cape Town from E190 to 738 to 787 over the peak period. The partnership with SAA helps to steer previously SAA-captive corporate traffic their way over the Nairobi hub to the entire region. I wouldn't be surprised to see them open Durban next with the E190, and possibly reintroduce Mombasa-Johannesburg at some point during the year as the plan to expand the focus city there with O&D focused routes grows.


It seems that Kenya Airways wants to serve Durban. Seen on the South African Official Gazette.

Ethiopian Airlines in 2015 had relaunched its route to Durban 16 years after its closure. The line had been operated year-round before being seasonal and finally closed (https://www-financialafrik-com.translat ... r_pto=wapp) . In the case of Kenya Airways it would make sense since South African Airways and Kenya Airways want to merge. KQ already serves Cape Town and Johannesburg in South Africa.

This gazette is also available free online at http://www.gpwonline.co.za

STAATSKOERANT, 18 NOVEMbER 2022 No. 47526 409
DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORT

NOTICE 1430 OF 2022

INTERNATIONAL AIR SERVICE ACT, (ACT NO.60 OF 1993) GRANT /AMENDMENT OF INTERNATIONAL AIR SERVICE LICENSE

KENYA AIRWAYS LTD. (B) P.O BOX 19002-00501, Embakisi, Nairobi, Kenya (C) Class I (D) Type S2 (E) B737-300, Reg. 5Y-KQC; 5Y-KQD; B787-7 5Y-KZB and 5Y-KZA (F) and (G) Pointd in Kenya to Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town international airports (H) Seven flights per week (7)

https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/ ... en1430.pdf


There was a KQ embraer that was in Durban earlier today on a charter flight.
 
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B747-437B
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:16 pm

rukundo wrote:
It seems that Kenya Airways wants to serve Durban.
https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/ ... en1430.pdf


This permit to Durban was granted for all-cargo services only. They have not yet applied for passenger service rights.
 
evanb
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Dec 06, 2022 1:29 am

berari wrote:
Why a lack of liberal air services agreement? Is it Ethiopia's protectionist stance or vice versa? Are European air services agreements published anywhere for public consumption?


It takes two to tango, but yes, Ethiopia has a history of a fairly protectionist regime.
 
rukundo
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 09, 2022 2:35 pm

Any info about Burundi Airlines ? They have now a website. They have a booking engine but it shows only flights from others airlines. About destination, they show Paris, USA, Belgium, Dubai, London and Uganda.Of course some of these destinations will be not served by Burundi Airlines in short or medium term. Only Uganda & Dubai seems viable. We can see an A321 on their home page. Probably a picture for their website as the A321 seems too big for Burundi market.

https://www.burundiairlines.bi/

There are also pics of Management Team

Image

Image

Image
 
dkny
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:05 am

Is ET moving back it's JFK flight to ABJ from LFW starting this summer>
 
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eastafspot
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Dec 13, 2022 7:59 pm

rukundo wrote:
Image

Interesting!

So two Colonels and one Doctor will run the airline, looks like the best recipe for a disaster or to perfectly start Burundian Air(ways) Force. Wishing them a good luck anyway!

Which city can it be behind the A321? Their hub Bujumbura?
 
rukundo
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 16, 2022 4:53 pm

eastafspot wrote:
rukundo wrote:
Image

Interesting!

So two Colonels and one Doctor will run the airline, looks like the best recipe for a disaster or to perfectly start Burundian Air(ways) Force. Wishing them a good luck anyway!

Which city can it be behind the A321? Their hub Bujumbura?


No i think it could be an US city to to illustrate.

-------------------------------------------------

2 weeks after its arrival, the 1st RwandAir B737-800F made its 1st commercial flight from Kigali to Sharjah. Possible that it will be a regular route in the future as the airline has announced flights to the Middle East. https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/wb9304

RwandAir appears on the Sharjah airport website (database) but for the moment only today's flight is displayed and nothing about airlines serving the airport https://www.sharjahairport.ae/en/busine ... /airlines/. The return flight to Kigali is scheduled for 23:00 tonight local time. https://www.sharjahairport.ae/en/busine ... epartures/

Image
 
rukundo
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Dec 16, 2022 8:20 pm

Kenya Gov is looking for US investor for Kenya Airways

Ruto seeks Kenya Airways sale to strategic investor in US trip


US President Joe Biden is hosting the US-Africa summit this week and will discuss the 2023 elections and democracy in the continent with about 50 African heads of state

https://www.zawya.com/en/world/africa/r ... p-hu4ysy79

Kenya Airways and Royal Air Maroc resume partnership after three-year halt

Nairobi-based Kenya Airways (KQ) and Casablanca’s Royal Air Maroc (RAM) have inked an agreement to restore their codeshare partnership after a three-year halt.

The partnership was first launched in 2016 and discontinued in 2019 according to a joint statement released by the airlines. 

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/3288 ... casablanca

Kenya Airways suspends ticket sales in Malawi


NAIROBI, Kenya, Dec 16 – Kenya Airways (KQ)has announced the suspension of ticket sales in Malawi due to the challenge of repatriation of funds from the country.

https://www.capitalfm.co.ke/business/20 ... in-malawi/

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ethiopian Airlines to resume flights to Singapore

Ethiopian Airlines, the leading airline in Africa, has announced that it will resume direct services to Singapore on 25 March 2023.

The flight will be operated four times a week with the ultramodern B787 Dreamliner

SQ has its code on flights operated by Ethiopian in Africa. I wonder which are most popular routes from SIN to Africa via ADD

https://airlinergs.com/ethiopian-airlin ... singapore/

Vision 2035: Ethiopian Airlines to double fleet, network and expand partnerships

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/3275 ... on-network

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Photos of the 1st flight to Sharjah today. © Embassy of Rwanda in the United Arab Emirates. https://twitter.com/RwandaInUAE/status/ ... 6768958464

A small bright spot for RwandAir in a somewhat gloomy sky during the end of the year. There are delays due to breakdowns or accidents (collision between vehicle and a RwandAir A330 in Brussels earlier this week https://twitter.com/axel_herateur/statu ... 07147520**). The weather in Kigali is capricious with fog which means that flights have to be diverted. As a result, the luggage has difficulty reaching its destination. Many complaints on Twitter

**Translation: Conspiracy theory of the week: if the Rwandair flight from Brussels was damaged while loading luggage and had to be repaired, it is because there is a Rwandan political action behind it and something is happening in the country

Image
 
iadadd
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Dec 17, 2022 2:59 am

dkny wrote:
Is ET moving back it's JFK flight to ABJ from LFW starting this summer>


I haven't seen that.
 
MXP92
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Dec 17, 2022 10:05 am

Ethiopian is resuming Copenhagen after a 20 years hiatus.
Flights will start on 22MAY23 5xw ADD-VIE-CPH. VIE remains unchanged, BRU will get a daily nonstop and dedicated flight (now 2xw nonstop and 5xw via VIE).

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/221216-etns23eu
 
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eastafspot
Posts: 2010
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Dec 17, 2022 8:32 pm

MXP92 wrote:
Ethiopian is resuming Copenhagen after a 20 years hiatus.
Flights will start on 22MAY23 5xw ADD-VIE-CPH. VIE remains unchanged, BRU will get a daily nonstop and dedicated flight (now 2xw nonstop and 5xw via VIE).

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/221216-etns23eu

How is the timing with SAS ?
 
rukundo
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Dec 19, 2022 11:16 am

The time is no longer to nationalize Kenya Airways. After the launching of a merger project with SAA, the Kenyan government would like to open the capital of Kenya Airways to American investors.


We learn that the newly elected president of Kenya Mr Ruto met with executives of Delta Airlines. Delta Airlines and Kenya Airways are in the same alliance. We remember that in 2009, DL wanted to open an Atlanta-Dakar-Nairobi route, but the TSA had said that Kenya was far from having fulfilled all the conditions to obtain the FAA status 1 category.


With the end of the JV between Air France-KLM and Kenya Airways, KLM only owns 7.76% of the shares of KQ against 26.7%.

If Delta Airlines buys shares of Kenya Airways it would probably be the first American airline to invest in an African airline since the TWA done with Ethiopian Airlines in 1945 (https://corporate.ethiopianairlines.com ... -of-africa).


Ruto meets Delta Air, wants to sell all State stake in KQ


https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/ ... q--4059492
 
iadadd
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:42 pm

rukundo wrote:
The time is no longer to nationalize Kenya Airways. After the launching of a merger project with SAA, the Kenyan government would like to open the capital of Kenya Airways to American investors.


We learn that the newly elected president of Kenya Mr Ruto met with executives of Delta Airlines. Delta Airlines and Kenya Airways are in the same alliance. We remember that in 2009, DL wanted to open an Atlanta-Dakar-Nairobi route, but the TSA had said that Kenya was far from having fulfilled all the conditions to obtain the FAA status 1 category.


With the end of the JV between Air France-KLM and Kenya Airways, KLM only owns 7.76% of the shares of KQ against 26.7%.

If Delta Airlines buys shares of Kenya Airways it would probably be the first American airline to invest in an African airline since the TWA done with Ethiopian Airlines in 1945 (https://corporate.ethiopianairlines.com ... -of-africa).


Ruto meets Delta Air, wants to sell all State stake in KQ


https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/ ... q--4059492


Just to clarify, TWA never owned a share of Ethiopian Airlines; it was hired by the Ethiopian government to assist with its set up and play an advisory role
 
berari
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Dec 19, 2022 4:47 pm

eastafspot wrote:
MXP92 wrote:
Ethiopian is resuming Copenhagen after a 20 years hiatus.
Flights will start on 22MAY23 5xw ADD-VIE-CPH. VIE remains unchanged, BRU will get a daily nonstop and dedicated flight (now 2xw nonstop and 5xw via VIE).

https://www.aeroroutes.com/eng/221216-etns23eu

How is the timing with SAS ?


Flight into CPH arrives at 0840 in CPH and leaves at 1945. It misses the morning SAS departure bank and there is also not good connectivity in the evening. Looking at SAS flights at CPH, they are quite light(!)
 
berari
Posts: 1201
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Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:27 pm

rukundo wrote:
The time is no longer to nationalize Kenya Airways. After the launching of a merger project with SAA, the Kenyan government would like to open the capital of Kenya Airways to American investors.

[...]


Ruto meets Delta Air, wants to sell all State stake in KQ


https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/ ... q--4059492


What I would like to know is what KQ has to offer that is worth investing into. What makes KQ attractive especially to a US-based airline that has zero connectivity to Kenya other than a link through Sky Team and related code sharing? The way the airline has been run and the endless funds that the Kenyan government keeps throwing at it with no positive outcome, what level of confidence would any investor (US-based or otherwise) have to proceed?
 
berari
Posts: 1201
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2016 3:47 pm

Re: East African Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Dec 19, 2022 5:28 pm

Ethiopian is restarting Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. Also restarting Copenhagen. On its radar are Karachi (a return) and Atlanta according to the CEO quoted in the following article: https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-12-19/

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