Nov 10th

MSP-BNA:
2x 319
2x 320

DTW-BNA:
1x 221
2x 320
1x 321

Look at the end of the day IDGAF what DL does with their network at DTW.
There are business reasons for doing what they are doing.
I really don't care how other hubs measure up one way or another.

As long as we collectively have access to be able to fly to where we want, when we want, fine.

I would love for more yes, but I also realize this industry is changing and not what it was pre-pandemic let alone what it was 10-15 years ago when turboprops and RJs were being flung all over the place.

I don't think there is a grand conspiracy theory out there.
Yes, DL has over-emphasized on the coastal hubs/gateways (even self admitted recently).

DTW is not immune to what is going on elsewhere.

As I said, look at DL at MSP, AA at ORD, AA at PHL, etc. There are a lot of brutal cuts across the board.

Until the post-collapse of the regional airline industry model is sorted out this what you have.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Look at the end of the day IDGAF what DL does with their network at DTW.
There are business reasons for doing what they are doing.
I really don't care how other hubs measure up one way or another.

As long as we collectively have access to be able to fly to where we want, when we want, fine.

I would love for more yes, but I also realize this industry is changing and not what it was pre-pandemic let alone what it was 10-15 years ago when turboprops and RJs were being flung all over the place.

I don't think there is a grand conspiracy theory out there.
Yes, DL has over-emphasized on the coastal hubs/gateways (even self admitted recently).

DTW is not immune to what is going on elsewhere.

As I said, look at DL at MSP, AA at ORD, AA at PHL, etc. There are a lot of brutal cuts across the board.

Until the post-collapse of the regional airline industry model is sorted out this what you have.

Key point: it's happening nearly everywhere.

LAXIntl posted a comparison of UA Aug 2019 vs. Aug 2020 (SFO appears in an earlier post):
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468679&p=23509859#p23509859

It's just ironic how the same posters who come here to dance on the corpse of DTW (and it's the same posters for many years)... are the first to defend the drop/cut/whatever at their hometown / favorite airport IAH, MSP, ORD, etc. Again... it's happening nearly everywhere. IDK why people wanna keep insisting DTW is "different." Look at the fares and loads from DTW... but I guess the cuts to SBN are going to make it collapse Or better yet, DL will move the DTW hub to and reopen the CVG hub when Kroger completes its acquisition of Albertsons.

flymco753 wrote:

CWA is next on the DTW chopping block. I am going to say that BGM, BMI, CHA, ITH, and SCE are next. After that virtually the only CRJ flying will be intra-MI routes.

Starting to see the shift, MSP-BNA has more frequency and capacity than DTW-BNA, that's just one of the many routes we are seeing where historically DTW had more capacity and are now falling short to MSP and NYC.

...but things are just fine at DTW.

Some of those cities I could see shifting to other Delta hubs, while some will go away...

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

FWIW.....one should go look at the AA Network thread to see how abysmal AA's schedule is for ORD this winter.
A lot of crazy deep cuts in destinations and frequencies......even stuff that DL is flying at much higher capacity at DTW than AA at ORD this winter.

ORD sounds like it's functionally going to be a 2 bank hub in January for AA, which is just....wow. As bad as the cuts DL's made, they are not the wholesale clear cutting that AA's doing to prop up CLT and DFW flying. There's some speculation that it's because of a gap in the cutover to Air Wisconsin taking over all of the 50 seat flying for them from Chicago. Thing is, with Mesa sounding like they want to bail on the CR9 flying they're doing from PHX and DFW as Eagle, things could continue to get worse instead of better over there.

I also wonder how long the mainline sized aircraft hiring binge keeps going for; I've continually read that the biggest problem isn't so much FOs right now as it is getting incoming Captains checked out in the CR7/CR9/E70/E75 aircraft and keeping them around.

As I’ve said before, DTW is my home airport and I am happy to use it on my trips back home. However, the reason I am such a harsh critic is because we all know what the airport is capable of doing.

Firstly, unlike MSP who has SY and IND/PIT/LCK/GRR/PIT/etc have G4, DTW has no dedicated low cost airline. NK is no longer vested into DTW as they were 10 years ago. For DTW this is a bad situation because it’s keeping fares extremely high and allowing Delta to put a choke on markets. What is B6 going to do? Not very much, they’re just going to fill the void that Southwest refuses to fill in Detroit. Stimulated demand from B6 will not be as dramatic as a low cost airline and now they have the power to choke certain markets as well.

Second, we all know DTW can support a lower cost European airline. There was an article published some time ago that the WCAA was working to get a replacement yet, here we are on the bottom of their lists, klm617 used to beat this like a dead horse and quite frankly was right about it.

Lastly, this airport is capable of securing Volaris or Viva Aerobus to places like GDL that see a decent amount of VFR traffic. AM was going to attempt it and I think they would have had a fair shot.

So yes, I am rough with my statements about DTW but that’s only because we know what the airport is capable of doing, so let’s see those results or see progress in those results. All we are seeing is market suppression and historic lows in frequency and capacity.

GSP psgr wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

FWIW.....one should go look at the AA Network thread to see how abysmal AA's schedule is for ORD this winter.
A lot of crazy deep cuts in destinations and frequencies......even stuff that DL is flying at much higher capacity at DTW than AA at ORD this winter.

ORD sounds like it's functionally going to be a 2 bank hub in January for AA, which is just....wow. As bad as the cuts DL's made, they are not the wholesale clear cutting that AA's doing to prop up CLT and DFW flying. There's some speculation that it's because of a gap in the cutover to Air Wisconsin taking over all of the 50 seat flying for them from Chicago. Thing is, with Mesa sounding like they want to bail on the CR9 flying they're doing from PHX and DFW as Eagle, things could continue to get worse instead of better over there.

I also wonder how long the mainline sized aircraft hiring binge keeps going for; I've continually read that the biggest problem isn't so much FOs right now as it is getting incoming Captains checked out in the CR7/CR9/E70/E75 aircraft and keeping them around.

AA's cuts at ORD are not as detrimental to their network as DL's cuts at DTW and MSP. AA services most outstations from multiple hubs so you rarely find a "you just can't get there from here unless you take 1000m detour to ATL" situation like you do with DL. Minor outstations like GRR also have flights to PHL, DCA, CLT, MIA, DFW and PHX so frequency cuts at ORD are not affecting the overall connectivity in a major way.

The RJ cuts, nationwide, have only just started. It’ll be a very different network for each legacy in a few years.

flymco753 wrote:

As I’ve said before, DTW is my home airport and I am happy to use it on my trips back home. However, the reason I am such a harsh critic is because we all know what the airport is capable of doing.

Firstly, unlike MSP who has SY and IND/PIT/LCK/GRR/PIT/etc have G4, DTW has no dedicated low cost airline. NK is no longer vested into DTW as they were 10 years ago. For DTW this is a bad situation because it’s keeping fares extremely high and allowing Delta to put a choke on markets. What is B6 going to do? Not very much, they’re just going to fill the void that Southwest refuses to fill in Detroit. Stimulated demand from B6 will not be as dramatic as a low cost airline and now they have the power to choke certain markets as well.

Second, we all know DTW can support a lower cost European airline. There was an article published some time ago that the WCAA was working to get a replacement yet, here we are on the bottom of their lists, klm617 used to beat this like a dead horse and quite frankly was right about it.

Lastly, this airport is capable of securing Volaris or Viva Aerobus to places like GDL that see a decent amount of VFR traffic. AM was going to attempt it and I think they would have had a fair shot.

So yes, I am rough with my statements about DTW but that’s only because we know what the airport is capable of doing, so let’s see those results or see progress in those results. All we are seeing is market suppression and historic lows in frequency and capacity.

IND PIT GRR LCK and all don’t have a global network carrier with multiple widebodies to Europe and Asia a day either…

WidebodyPTV wrote:

It's just ironic how the same posters who come here to dance on the corpse of DTW (and it's the same posters for many years)... are the first to defend the drop/cut/whatever at their hometown / favorite airport IAH, MSP, ORD, etc. Again... it's happening nearly everywhere. IDK why people wanna keep insisting DTW is "different." Look at the fares and loads from DTW... but I guess the cuts to SBN are going to make it collapse Or better yet, DL will move the DTW hub to and reopen the CVG hub when Kroger completes its acquisition of Albertsons.

What actually happened at SBN was for the last several years has been a traffic shift in business and VFR boardings. This is reflected in the traffic figures for the last 2 years. Using DTW for connections has been stagnant as business traffic to the NE has sort of dried up. Traffic has shifted more North-South with most business traffic now going to Texas. Outside of Chicago the top connecting markets for South Bend passengers have been Atlanta, Charlotte and Dallas and they run neck and neck on passenger boardings. So the airport responded several years ago to get American back and American responded with great results.

The original plan Pre-Pandemic for Delta at SBN was to use CRJ900's for Atlanta and Minneapolis and CRJ200's for DTW due to the short distance of those flights. The Pandemic and the resulting shortage of pilots put a kabosh to that. At the same time the market changed as I posted above. FWA also lost their DTW flights as did several other cities. Now Delta officials told FWA Airport officials that they could see the DTW flights coming back in late 2023 if they can remedy the pilot shortage. The regional model though is somewhat broken right now so we shall see what happens in the future.

Here are the DOT Statistics for passenger boardings for South Bend for July 2022. Notice the part of the chart with the top 10 markets. With One flight a day on CRJ900's for MSP and DTW, MSP has shown a large increase in boardings for the last 12 months while DTW has shown a minimal increase. Hopefully once the regional model and Delta get things sorted out and business traffic demand returns to the Northeast Delta could restore some of this connecting regional traffic at DTW.
https://www.transtats.bts.gov/airports. ... 4vr4=SNPgf

Let me offer some discussion on something here. If you go on Google flights you can toy around with airlines, dates, etc.

In my first case I am using DTW-SRQ, I searched round trip ticket fares from Jan 11th to Jan 20th. The price of the nonstop ticket in basic economy is $258 nonstop or $227 via LGA. This appears to be common as well with CHS, PBI, and JAX as well.

Next is DTW-SAN, I looked up flights from Dec 8th to Dec 12th and basic economy nonstop fares are $531 but are $484 via SEA. This is common with SFO as well.

Lastly is DTW-CUN. On most weeks in December fares are almost $150 more to fly nonstop to Cancun as opposed to stopping in MSP.

Yet, when we look at LGA-OMA, DSM, or IND it’s cheaper to fly nonstop or connect in MSP or ATL as opposed to DTW. It seems like, in order to connect in DTW you need to pay a premium, which emerging from the COVID world we know is going to be much less common.

When DTW loses a CRJ route, frequency to currently served destinations will decline with it. There’s nobody keeping anyone honest at DTW like Sun Country does in Minneapolis or JetBlue in Boston.

flymco753 wrote:

Let me offer some discussion on something here. If you go on Google flights you can toy around with airlines, dates, etc.

In my first case I am using DTW-SRQ, I searched round trip ticket fares from Jan 11th to Jan 20th. The price of the nonstop ticket in basic economy is $258 nonstop or $227 via LGA. This appears to be common as well with CHS, PBI, and JAX as well.

Next is DTW-SAN, I looked up flights from Dec 8th to Dec 12th and basic economy nonstop fares are $531 but are $484 via SEA. This is common with SFO as well.

Lastly is DTW-CUN. On most weeks in December fares are almost $150 more to fly nonstop to Cancun as opposed to stopping in MSP.

Yet, when we look at LGA-OMA, DSM, or IND it’s cheaper to fly nonstop or connect in MSP or ATL as opposed to DTW. It seems like, in order to connect in DTW you need to pay a premium, which emerging from the COVID world we know is going to be much less common.

When DTW loses a CRJ route, frequency to currently served destinations will decline with it. There’s nobody keeping anyone honest at DTW like Sun Country does in Minneapolis or JetBlue in Boston.

Those examples are all very fair prices. I fail to see what the complaint is.

Looking at numbers on wiki for DTW and MSP, Spirit flies twice as many pax from DTW as Sun Country does MSP. I’m not sure why there’s an obsession to paint DTW as dying. They’ve got a major legacy hub and a ULCC, they punch far above their weight. You can’t get directly to Nagoya from anywhere else in the US. Yes some smaller RJ routes have been cut, more is coming to many other hubs. As legacies grow and offset their regionals, you’ll see it pick back up. I guarantee DTW is happy with how they are compared to any other comparable city: CVG, CMH, CLE, PIT, IND and so on.

Comparable markets to DTW are not IND, CMH, CLE, CVG or PIT. Those markets are easily 1/2 as large as the DTW metropolitan area. In fact, I imagine that DTW pulls actually a bit from CLE. Markets like SEA, MSP, DEN, PHX, PHL are, imo, more comparable to DTW. I think that is what many posters do not realize.

DTW is fortunate to be a hub, but given the lack of competition, there isn't much incentive to add any traffic flows via DTW. The market is captive and not easily susceptible to new entry for this reason. This is not the case at hubs with more competition.

DL knows the grip it has on the market. In all major markets that are served ex DTW, I believe DL is the dominant carrier on all hub-to-hub city-pairs. Other airlines simply do not have the customer draw in DTW thereby making the market hard to penetrate. I also believe that demand ex DTW is likely higher than demand into DTW, which also makes the DTW customer loyalty bias towards the home carrier (DL) more noticeable. This is also seen on the international level as well. The best that competing airlines can achieve is parity with DL on trunk-routes, and likely only because they have a very strong hub one the other end (ie. FRA, DFW, CLT) In fact, I cannot think of one 'major' city pair with a competing legacy/network carrier which has dominance over DL.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Those examples are all very fair prices. I fail to see what the complaint is.

I don't think it's a complaint. They're just showing how not having a strong alternative to DL at DTW changes the dynamic not just of pricing but the function of DTW in the DL network.

hjulicher wrote:

DTW is fortunate to be a hub, but given the lack of competition, there isn't much incentive to add any traffic flows via DTW. The market is captive and not easily susceptible to new entry for this reason. This is not the case at hubs with more competition.

DL knows the grip it has on the market. In all major markets that are served ex DTW, I believe DL is the dominant carrier on all hub-to-hub city-pairs. Other airlines simply do not have the customer draw in DTW thereby making the market hard to penetrate. I also believe that demand ex DTW is likely higher than demand into DTW, which also makes the DTW customer loyalty bias towards the home carrier (DL) more noticeable. This is also seen on the international level as well.

DTW-MYR is the only domestic route with DL nonstop service out of DTW where another carrier had more O&D market share than DL did in Q2 2022 with NK having more O&D market share on DTW-MYR than DL did in Q2 2022.

There are also some domestic markets not served nonstop from DTW where AA carried more of the connecting traffic out of DTW than DL, UA, or WN did in Q2 2022.

hjulicher wrote:

Comparable markets to DTW are not IND, CMH, CLE, CVG or PIT. Those markets are easily 1/2 as large as the DTW metropolitan area. In fact, I imagine that DTW pulls actually a bit from CLE. Markets like SEA, MSP, DEN, PHX, PHL are, imo, more comparable to DTW. I think that is what many posters do not realize.

They realize it. They've been participating on here for ~20 years and have seen the data. They just don't care - they want to push their agenda.

TonyClifton wrote:

Looking at numbers on wiki for DTW and MSP, Spirit flies twice as many pax from DTW as Sun Country does MSP. I’m not sure why there’s an obsession to paint DTW as dying. They’ve got a major legacy hub and a ULCC, they punch far above their weight. You can’t get directly to Nagoya from anywhere else in the US. Yes some smaller RJ routes have been cut, more is coming to many other hubs. As legacies grow and offset their regionals, you’ll see it pick back up. I guarantee DTW is happy with how they are compared to any other comparable city: CVG, CMH, CLE, PIT, IND and so on.

I agree with your point but just a correction - SY/MSP is now around 1/4 bigger than NK/DTW.

Most recent stats - August 2022
SY/MSP - 145,964 enplanements - up 10.5% over August 2019
NK/DTW - 116,339 enplanements - down 31.2% over August 2019

hjulicher wrote:

Comparable markets to DTW are not IND, CMH, CLE, CVG or PIT. Those markets are easily 1/2 as large as the DTW metropolitan area. In fact, I imagine that DTW pulls actually a bit from CLE. Markets like SEA, MSP, DEN, PHX, PHL are, imo, more comparable to DTW. I think that is what many posters do not realize.

DTW is fortunate to be a hub, but given the lack of competition, there isn't much incentive to add any traffic flows via DTW. The market is captive and not easily susceptible to new entry for this reason. This is not the case at hubs with more competition.

DL knows the grip it has on the market. In all major markets that are served ex DTW, I believe DL is the dominant carrier on all hub-to-hub city-pairs. Other airlines simply do not have the customer draw in DTW thereby making the market hard to penetrate. I also believe that demand ex DTW is likely higher than demand into DTW, which also makes the DTW customer loyalty bias towards the home carrier (DL) more noticeable. This is also seen on the international level as well. The best that competing airlines can achieve is parity with DL on trunk-routes, and likely only because they have a very strong hub one the other end (ie. FRA, DFW, CLT) In fact, I cannot think of one 'major' city pair with a competing legacy/network carrier which has dominance over DL.

Sorry, but DTW is by no means a comparable market (at least domestically) to DEN and PHX, or both domestically and internationally with SEA, all of which are already much larger markets and continuing to grow fast. MSP and PHL, yes. Similarly sized O&D, and markets that are heavily dominated by legacy carriers that are minimizing growth to prop up other hubs and “growth” markets. But to make a fair comparison it’s best to understand where DTW falls against other hubs. It no longer can compete with markets like DEN, PHX and SEA that have grown by leaps and bounds over the last two decades and continue to do so. DTW is a mature market where DL likely gets considerable margins and has no incentive to alter much without any threats from other carriers.

Jeremy

I just cringe though with the overall a.net mantra that loves to compare market X to market Y and try to boil it down to simplistic measures.
Its just not real.

DTW isn't CVG, CMH, CLE, PIT, IND on a variety of metrics.
However it has a lot different air service demand than population and enplanements than markets like SEA, MSP, DEN, PHX, PHL.
There are a lot of different factors at play there both on the demand in the individual markets, market dynamics, market growth/trajectory, hub dynamics, et. al.

WidebodyPTV wrote:

hjulicher wrote:

Comparable markets to DTW are not IND, CMH, CLE, CVG or PIT. Those markets are easily 1/2 as large as the DTW metropolitan area. In fact, I imagine that DTW pulls actually a bit from CLE. Markets like SEA, MSP, DEN, PHX, PHL are, imo, more comparable to DTW. I think that is what many posters do not realize.

They realize it. They've been participating on here for ~20 years and have seen the data. They just don't care - they want to push their agenda.

I told you…

I've said this before, but I'll say it again: I grew up in the Detroit area and live in Minneapolis now, and because of geography the air travel markets in the two cities are NOT directly comparable, so comparing DL's operations at the two cities is meaningless due to factors beyond the airline or airports' control. Here are some reasons why it's misleading to compare the two air travel markets:

1. It's feasible to drive from the Detroit area to the gulf coast of Florida in one (long) day, but because Minneapolis is several hundred miles further from Florida than Detroit is, and because drivers from Minneapolis to Florida have to deal with the congested freeways in the Chicago area, people driving between Minneapolis and Florida have to spend a night at a hotel partway through their journey in each direction. Because driving from MSP to Florida is significantly longer and more expensive than driving from Detroit to Florida is, a higher percentage of people in the MSP area choose to fly there. This enables MSP to support more flights to Florida than Detroit does.

2. Because Minnesota is several hundred miles west of Michigan, many more Minnesotans than Michiganders vacation or retire in Arizona. However, in the winter driving between Minnesota and Arizona isn't an option because of ice and snow in the Rockies. The popularity of Arizona further increases air travel demand at MSP.

3. MSP is 100 miles further from Chicago than DTW is. Although this may seem like a short distance, it means driving between MSP and Chicago takes two hours longer in each direction than driving between DTW and Chicago does. Amtrak also has fewer trains between Minneapolis and Chicago than they do between Detroit and Chicago, and Amtrak is less reliable in Minneapolis because many of their trains to Chicago originate in Seattle and get delayed in Montana or North Dakota. Because surface travel is less appealing between MSP and Chicago than it is between DTW and Chicago, far more people fly from MSP to Chicago.

4. The longer distance between MSP and Chicago also means fewer long haul travelers choose to drive to Chicago for lower fares. Unlike in Detroit, travel to Canada for low long haul fares isn't an option, either, because YWG is much farther from MSP than YYZ is from DTW, and YWG has far less international service than YYZ.

5. The wealthier neighborhoods in the MSP area are much closer to MSP airport than the wealthier neighborhoods in the Detroit area are to DTW. Although St. Cloud is about as far from MSP as FNT is from DTW, St Cloud has struggled far more than FNT has to attract air service, even though St Cloud is a college town, because St. Cloud can't draw on any upper middle class suburbs of Minneapolis like FNT draws on the upper middle class suburbs of Oakland County.

Although this is a long post, hopefully it will put to rest the argument that "DL favors MSP over DTW" once and for all.

WA707atMSP wrote:

3. MSP is 100 miles further from Chicago than DTW is. Although this may seem like a short distance, it means driving between MSP and Chicago takes two hours longer in each direction than driving between DTW and Chicago does. Amtrak also has fewer trains between Minneapolis and Chicago than they do between Detroit and Chicago, and Amtrak is less reliable in Minneapolis because many of their trains to Chicago originate in Seattle and get delayed in Montana or North Dakota. Because surface travel is less appealing between MSP and Chicago than it is between DTW and Chicago, far more people fly from MSP to Chicago.

This I disagree with because the operation of the 3 Pontiac/Detroit to Chicago Amtrak round trips has been nothing short of pathetic and has been so for a long time.
While this isn't the place to discuss this, I do invite you to read this summation of how bad the Wolverine service has gotten.
https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2022/10/amtrak-making-changes-after-no-heat-power-on-michigan-chicago-train-fiasco.html

WA707atMSP wrote:

I've said this before, but I'll say it again: I grew up in the Detroit area and live in Minneapolis now, and because of geography the air travel markets in the two cities are NOT directly comparable, so comparing DL's operations at the two cities is meaningless due to factors beyond the airline or airports' control. Here are some reasons why it's misleading to compare the two air travel markets:

1. It's feasible to drive from the Detroit area to the gulf coast of Florida in one (long) day, but because Minneapolis is several hundred miles further from Florida than Detroit is, and because drivers from Minneapolis to Florida have to deal with the congested freeways in the Chicago area, people driving between Minneapolis and Florida have to spend a night at a hotel partway through their journey in each direction. Because driving from MSP to Florida is significantly longer and more expensive than driving from Detroit to Florida is, a higher percentage of people in the MSP area choose to fly there. This enables MSP to support more flights to Florida than Detroit does.

2. Because Minnesota is several hundred miles west of Michigan, many more Minnesotans than Michiganders vacation or retire in Arizona. However, in the winter driving between Minnesota and Arizona isn't an option because of ice and snow in the Rockies. The popularity of Arizona further increases air travel demand at MSP.

3. MSP is 100 miles further from Chicago than DTW is. Although this may seem like a short distance, it means driving between MSP and Chicago takes two hours longer in each direction than driving between DTW and Chicago does. Amtrak also has fewer trains between Minneapolis and Chicago than they do between Detroit and Chicago, and Amtrak is less reliable in Minneapolis because many of their trains to Chicago originate in Seattle and get delayed in Montana or North Dakota. Because surface travel is less appealing between MSP and Chicago than it is between DTW and Chicago, far more people fly from MSP to Chicago.

4. The longer distance between MSP and Chicago also means fewer long haul travelers choose to drive to Chicago for lower fares. Unlike in Detroit, travel to Canada for low long haul fares isn't an option, either, because YWG is much farther from MSP than YYZ is from DTW, and YWG has far less international service than YYZ.

5. The wealthier neighborhoods in the MSP area are much closer to MSP airport than the wealthier neighborhoods in the Detroit area are to DTW. Although St. Cloud is about as far from MSP as FNT is from DTW, St Cloud has struggled far more than FNT has to attract air service, even though St Cloud is a college town, because St. Cloud can't draw on any upper middle class suburbs of Minneapolis like FNT draws on the upper middle class suburbs of Oakland County.

Although this is a long post, hopefully it will put to rest the argument that "DL favors MSP over DTW" once and for all.

Every market has uniqueness. Overall, the comparison that’s often made between MSP and DTW is somewhat valid because for many decades both hubs have been similarly sized and used to each of their advantages (DTW for Asia traffic, connecting cities on the east coast and Florida, MSP as an east-west hub and serving the Great Plains). After DL and NW merged both hubs lost a lot of their traffic flows to ATL which is entirely in a class of its own among hubs (only DFW is of comparable size but DL still operates quite a few more seats at ATL). Today, both are still of comparable size as their markets are of comparable size and both are significantly down from 2019 numbers for a number of different reasons (the primary being that DL cut its overall operation too much and had to squeeze them in favor of other less competitive markets to maintain slots and a competitive position on the coasts). DL is not going to dehub either city and both will continue to play a significant role in DL’s overall operation. The comparisons between DTW and places like DEN, PHX and SEA, however, are not valid and are a true apples to oranges comparison. DTW, MSP, PHL and even places like ORD for AA are mature, low-growth markets. They’re simply not going to get the attention that the flashier markets do (unless market dynamics dramatically change, which some expect to occur in the Midwest over the next few decades).

Jeremy

usflyer msp wrote:

TonyClifton wrote:

Looking at numbers on wiki for DTW and MSP, Spirit flies twice as many pax from DTW as Sun Country does MSP. I’m not sure why there’s an obsession to paint DTW as dying. They’ve got a major legacy hub and a ULCC, they punch far above their weight. You can’t get directly to Nagoya from anywhere else in the US. Yes some smaller RJ routes have been cut, more is coming to many other hubs. As legacies grow and offset their regionals, you’ll see it pick back up. I guarantee DTW is happy with how they are compared to any other comparable city: CVG, CMH, CLE, PIT, IND and so on.

I agree with your point but just a correction - SY/MSP is now around 1/4 bigger than NK/DTW.

Most recent stats - August 2022
SY/MSP - 145,964 enplanements - up 10.5% over August 2019
NK/DTW - 116,339 enplanements - down 31.2% over August 2019

Thank you. For some reason I couldn’t find SY in BTS.

usflyer msp wrote:

AA's cuts at ORD are not as detrimental to their network as DL's cuts at DTW and MSP. AA services most outstations from multiple hubs so you rarely find a "you just can't get there from here unless you take 1000m detour to ATL" situation like you do with DL. Minor outstations like GRR also have flights to PHL, DCA, CLT, MIA, DFW and PHX so frequency cuts at ORD are not affecting the overall connectivity in a major way.

The question isn't if DTW-XXX (let's say SBN) has a positive op margin, but if it has an op margin higher than every other route/frequency in the DL network. If a carrier is frame- or pilot-constrained it's going to rank all x,xxx departures a day and drop the weakest. This isn't DL telling SBN passengers to fly 1,000 miles out of the way... It's DL telling them to fly another carrier because fares/passenger counts don't justify DL dropping other routes to retain SBN-DTW/MSP.

SBN just isn't important to the DL network. SBN ranked #143 is domestic departures for the 12 months ending 7/2022. There's no argument to be made that DL should pull E75s or CR9s out of LGA/JFK or BOS to serve SBN.

Look at domestic cities served by AA/DL/UA in 2019. Look at the counts today. Check back in 2025. The cuts are going to be bloody.

WidebodyPTV wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Look at the end of the day IDGAF what DL does with their network at DTW.
There are business reasons for doing what they are doing.
I really don't care how other hubs measure up one way or another.

As long as we collectively have access to be able to fly to where we want, when we want, fine.

I would love for more yes, but I also realize this industry is changing and not what it was pre-pandemic let alone what it was 10-15 years ago when turboprops and RJs were being flung all over the place.

I don't think there is a grand conspiracy theory out there.
Yes, DL has over-emphasized on the coastal hubs/gateways (even self admitted recently).

DTW is not immune to what is going on elsewhere.

As I said, look at DL at MSP, AA at ORD, AA at PHL, etc. There are a lot of brutal cuts across the board.

Until the post-collapse of the regional airline industry model is sorted out this what you have.

Key point: it's happening nearly everywhere.

LAXIntl posted a comparison of UA Aug 2019 vs. Aug 2020 (SFO appears in an earlier post):
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468679&p=23509859#p23509859

It's just ironic how the same posters who come here to dance on the corpse of DTW (and it's the same posters for many years)... are the first to defend the drop/cut/whatever at their hometown / favorite airport IAH, MSP, ORD, etc. Again... it's happening nearly everywhere. IDK why people wanna keep insisting DTW is "different." Look at the fares and loads from DTW... but I guess the cuts to SBN are going to make it collapse Or better yet, DL will move the DTW hub to and reopen the CVG hub when Kroger completes its acquisition of Albertsons.

I don't know of any IAH posters that put down DTW. I mean, I'm the only one who posts on the DTW thread regularly and I always stand up for DTW. I love the city and the area and see the value of the hub.

DTW is a very valuable market. I think what might be hurting DTW is China. DTW is has been DL's gateway to Asia and not having China hurts DTW just as it does SFO and DFW. MSP didn't have as many connections to Asia and as a result not having them is not a big of a deal over there. All in all I don't see MSP or DTW above one another. They just fill different roles.

MIflyer12 wrote:

usflyer msp wrote:

AA's cuts at ORD are not as detrimental to their network as DL's cuts at DTW and MSP. AA services most outstations from multiple hubs so you rarely find a "you just can't get there from here unless you take 1000m detour to ATL" situation like you do with DL. Minor outstations like GRR also have flights to PHL, DCA, CLT, MIA, DFW and PHX so frequency cuts at ORD are not affecting the overall connectivity in a major way.

The question isn't if DTW-XXX (let's say SBN) has a positive op margin, but if it has an op margin higher than every other route/frequency in the DL network. If a carrier is frame- or pilot-constrained it's going to rank all x,xxx departures a day and drop the weakest. This isn't DL telling SBN passengers to fly 1,000 miles out of the way... It's DL telling them to fly another carrier because fares/passenger counts don't justify DL dropping other routes to retain SBN-DTW/MSP.

SBN just isn't important to the DL network. SBN ranked #143 is domestic departures for the 12 months ending 7/2022. There's no argument to be made that DL should pull E75s or CR9s out of LGA/JFK or BOS to serve SBN.

Look at domestic cities served by AA/DL/UA in 2019. Look at the counts today. Check back in 2025. The cuts are going to be bloody.

I don't know if agree with that assessment. If DL was not interested they would not price their circuitous routing via ATL the same as the better routings on other carriers. They would just price the passengers they don't care about off the plane.

I don’t see anything wrong with these cuts because what value do these routes bring to DTW? We can afford to lose a little bit more due to CRJ reductions. Plus, isn’t it nice walking through the terminal and not bumping shoulders with people? I have enjoyed how quiet it has been lately.

If people really think DTW has fared the worst in regards to flight cuts in the last few years, you've clearly not been paying attention to PHL/AA. Tons of RJ cuts in general on top of a handful of long haul routes being cut as well. DL's pretty much resumed all of their long-haul routes from DTW and even made MUC year-round.

Pretty sure AA/PHL was at ~400 daily departures pre-Covid and is currently at roughly 235 daily departures and not a lot of mainline has been added. DTW was about ~450 daily departures pre-Covid and is currently ~300 daily departures with a lot more mainline than they had pre-2020.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

WidebodyPTV wrote:

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

Look at the end of the day IDGAF what DL does with their network at DTW.
There are business reasons for doing what they are doing.
I really don't care how other hubs measure up one way or another.

As long as we collectively have access to be able to fly to where we want, when we want, fine.

I would love for more yes, but I also realize this industry is changing and not what it was pre-pandemic let alone what it was 10-15 years ago when turboprops and RJs were being flung all over the place.

I don't think there is a grand conspiracy theory out there.
Yes, DL has over-emphasized on the coastal hubs/gateways (even self admitted recently).

DTW is not immune to what is going on elsewhere.

As I said, look at DL at MSP, AA at ORD, AA at PHL, etc. There are a lot of brutal cuts across the board.

Until the post-collapse of the regional airline industry model is sorted out this what you have.

Key point: it's happening nearly everywhere.

LAXIntl posted a comparison of UA Aug 2019 vs. Aug 2020 (SFO appears in an earlier post):
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468679&p=23509859#p23509859

It's just ironic how the same posters who come here to dance on the corpse of DTW (and it's the same posters for many years)... are the first to defend the drop/cut/whatever at their hometown / favorite airport IAH, MSP, ORD, etc. Again... it's happening nearly everywhere. IDK why people wanna keep insisting DTW is "different." Look at the fares and loads from DTW... but I guess the cuts to SBN are going to make it collapse Or better yet, DL will move the DTW hub to and reopen the CVG hub when Kroger completes its acquisition of Albertsons.

I don't know of any IAH posters that put down DTW. I mean, I'm the only one who posts on the DTW thread regularly and I always stand up for DTW. I love the city and the area and see the value of the hub.

DTW is a very valuable market. I think what might be hurting DTW is China. DTW is has been DL's gateway to Asia and not having China hurts DTW just as it does SFO and DFW. MSP didn't have as many connections to Asia and as a result not having them is not a big of a deal over there. All in all I don't see MSP or DTW above one another. They just fill different roles.

With all respect, I don’t believe the China or “Asia being down” argument really doesn’t hold that much weight. For one, despite being (and still being) one of DL’s key Asian hubs, that still only meant 5 total flights… some of which weren’t daily. In 2019 the 5 Asian destinations were HND, NGO, ICN, PVG, PEK. Admittedly PEK is gone for now, but all the others are back (and mostly all operated through the pandemic, albeit at lower frequencies). Arguably currently PVG is no longer daily (because of Chinese restrictions), and operates with a technical stop in ICN, but even now it is still operating a few days a week. And arguably, though domestic, DTW has picked up A330/350 “fly over the pacific”service to HNL which didn’t exist in 2019 (except a handful of dates around the holidays).

Point being, there really aren’t that many fewer seats TPAC now than existed in 2019, especially if you add HNL into equation.

I will eat my crow this week….

BGM, ITH, SCE going to LGA.

WTF.

usflyer msp wrote:

TonyClifton wrote:

Looking at numbers on wiki for DTW and MSP, Spirit flies twice as many pax from DTW as Sun Country does MSP. I’m not sure why there’s an obsession to paint DTW as dying. They’ve got a major legacy hub and a ULCC, they punch far above their weight. You can’t get directly to Nagoya from anywhere else in the US. Yes some smaller RJ routes have been cut, more is coming to many other hubs. As legacies grow and offset their regionals, you’ll see it pick back up. I guarantee DTW is happy with how they are compared to any other comparable city: CVG, CMH, CLE, PIT, IND and so on.

I agree with your point but just a correction - SY/MSP is now around 1/4 bigger than NK/DTW.

Most recent stats - August 2022
SY/MSP - 145,964 enplanements - up 10.5% over August 2019
NK/DTW - 116,339 enplanements - down 31.2% over August 2019

I think the major difference is where NK flies vs. where SY flies.

This winter, internationally from MSP, SY is scheduled to fly nonstop to MSP- AUA, BZE, CUN, CZM, GCM, LIR, MBJ, MZT, PLS, PUJ, PVR, RTB, SJD, ZIH

This winter, internationally from DTW, NK is scheduled to fly nonstop to DTW-CUN

There is no comparison.

FWIW, in terms of load factor, DTW-BGM has usually been one of the top 3 or 4 worst performing DL-ticketed routes (that doesn’t touch NYC), in recent months.

Maybe now with the LGA connection “opportunities”, the BGM route will finally descend into the top 10 worst performing load factor routes… in the DL system overall.

Dtw - hnl now a 350 through March at least

dtwpilot225 wrote:

Dtw - hnl now a 350 through March at least

I wonder if it's the Ex LATAM A350s, I believe they will be operating ATL-HNL.

Yes it is (35L)

Probably makes sense to use the 35L on HNL, given the higher % of DeltaOne pax on HNL flights (relative to other 359 flights) who may be traveling with a paired companion… and thus less sensitive to the lack of aisle access for window D1 seats. Also, the lack of premium select might be less noticeable here, given this is technically a domestic route. Given both ATL and DTW have 350 pilot bases, those respective 35L HNL flights make sense.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

I will eat my crow this week….

BGM, ITH, SCE going to LGA.

WTF.

Delta's just trying to make crappy lemonade out of a box of bruised and rancid lemons they've been handed. I wouldn't read too much into this other than that a) Delta Connection flying is very screwed up right now, b) they have some remaining Endeavour block hours floating around ex-LGA, and c) they simultaneously need to slot sit on a bunch of LGA slots. All of these facets are entwined. Because I don't think Delta would be doing something that in normal times would be so cack handedly stupid as to beggar belief.

kavok wrote:

With all respect, I don’t believe the China or “Asia being down” argument really doesn’t hold that much weight. For one, despite being (and still being) one of DL’s key Asian hubs, that still only meant 5 total flights… some of which weren’t daily. In 2019 the 5 Asian destinations were HND, NGO, ICN, PVG, PEK. Admittedly PEK is gone for now, but all the others are back (and mostly all operated through the pandemic, albeit at lower frequencies). Arguably currently PVG is no longer daily (because of Chinese restrictions), and operates with a technical stop in ICN, but even now it is still operating a few days a week. And arguably, though domestic, DTW has picked up A330/350 “fly over the pacific”service to HNL which didn’t exist in 2019 (except a handful of dates around the holidays).

Point being, there really aren’t that many fewer seats TPAC now than existed in 2019, especially if you add HNL into equation.

While Asia being down isn't the only reason, I think it's still a fairly important part of the equation. The number of flights might not be large, but these aircraft have significant capacity and much of that consists of connecting pax rather than O&D. While a number of flights have been restored, it seems the flights that are running are not particularly full. While some of the demand will continue to recover with the reopening of Japan, there is still a long ways to go when you consider all of Asia and it's unclear how soon (if ever) the passenger demand will return to pre-Covid levels. Ultimately, this likely plays somewhat of a role in where DL decides to allocate regional flying as it continues to consolidate and reduce those flights.

Looks like the ITH/BGM/SCE cuts from DTW is actually an increase in capacity at LGA. From x1 CRJ-200 at DTW to x2 daily CRJ-900‘s.

Looks like more focus on Florida connections from LGA versus DTW which would offer more Asia/domestic western connections.

This also has to due with the drawdown of DL‘s overall CRJ-200 flying, which will end by around this time next year. So more cuts could follow.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

I will eat my crow this week….

BGM, ITH, SCE going to LGA.

WTF.

Slot squatting? I can't see LGA providing near the amount of connection opportunities over DTW.

SkyWest announcing that block hours are going to be cut by 20% from what they've been flying this year can't be good for DTW. Granted, Delta should be able to fly more mainline ASMs this summer, but I wouldn't expect any huge trickle down of CR9s and E75s freed up by those increased 717 hours now.

GSP psgr wrote:

SkyWest announcing that block hours are going to be cut by 20% from what they've been flying this year can't be good for DTW. Granted, Delta should be able to fly more mainline ASMs this summer, but I wouldn't expect any huge trickle down of CR9s and E75s freed up by those increased 717 hours now.

I am thinking a lot of this hopefully has already been reflected in the current and forward schedule as seen with the recent rounds of cuts taking effect in Q4 2022 and now in Q1 2023.
The wheels really didn't start coming off over at Skywest until the second half of 2022 when the staffing constraints really started to impact capacity.

While the are down 20% from 2022, I'd be curious how much they are down from 2019.

Here is OO's DTW number of departures per day of the course of 2022:

March: 58
CRJ2 12 (7 EAS, 5 pro-rate/at-risk)
CRJ9 46

August: 69
CRJ2 18 (7 EAS, 11 pro-rate/at-risk)
CRJ7 6
CRJ9 45

October: 48
CRJ2 8 (8 EAS)
CRJ7 5
CRJ9 35

OO already cut all CR2 flying at DTW, except for the EAS flying.
SBN, flown by a OO CR9 ends this month
SCE, flown by a OO CR7 ends in early-Jan, switching to 9E via LGA

9E is backfilling a lot of the OO flying at DTW, and more so as 9E winds down its CR2 operation and can better staff / utilize their CR7/CR9s and get a few more frames out of storage.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

I will eat my crow this week….

BGM, ITH, SCE going to LGA.

WTF.

Basically the same reason they're flying ORH/ALB/BDL/PVD-LGA now. They've got slots which have utilization requirements and short flights from these airports don't burn a lot of pilot hours.

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

GSP psgr wrote:

SkyWest announcing that block hours are going to be cut by 20% from what they've been flying this year can't be good for DTW. Granted, Delta should be able to fly more mainline ASMs this summer, but I wouldn't expect any huge trickle down of CR9s and E75s freed up by those increased 717 hours now.

I am thinking a lot of this hopefully has already been reflected in the current and forward schedule as seen with the recent rounds of cuts taking effect in Q4 2022 and now in Q1 2023.
The wheels really didn't start coming off over at Skywest until the second half of 2022 when the staffing constraints really started to impact capacity.

While the are down 20% from 2022, I'd be curious how much they are down from 2019.

Here is OO's DTW number of departures per day of the course of 2022:

March: 58
CRJ2 12 (7 EAS, 5 pro-rate/at-risk)
CRJ9 46

August: 69
CRJ2 18 (7 EAS, 11 pro-rate/at-risk)
CRJ7 6
CRJ9 45

October: 48
CRJ2 8 (8 EAS)
CRJ7 5
CRJ9 35

OO already cut all CR2 flying at DTW, except for the EAS flying.
SBN, flown by a OO CR9 ends this month
SCE, flown by a OO CR7 ends in early-Jan, switching to 9E via LGA

9E is backfilling a lot of the OO flying at DTW, and more so as 9E winds down its CR2 operation and can better staff / utilize their CR7/CR9s and get a few more frames out of storage.

9E isn't backfilling anything at DTW, they're running many fewer daily departures today than they were last year. 9E is well on it's way to being nothing more than a NYC-centric airline.

Backfilling isn’t the right word I guess but there is some stuff that is switching between the two but yes 9E and OO are both smaller now than they were in 2021.

The words cut/slash/reduce is the new norm at DTW, NK plans to drastically reduce their DTW crew base according to a poster on another thread.

Things klm617 used to say are happening.

flymco753 wrote:

The words cut/slash/reduce is the new norm at DTW, NK plans to drastically reduce their DTW crew base according to a poster on another thread.

Even though NK still has nonstop service to ATL/DFW/IAH out of DTW through current end-of-schedule, DTW can support the return of WN DTW-ATL/DAL/HOU nonstop service if NK drops DTW-ATL/DFW/IAH nonstop service.

WN would also likely be able to get better yields on DTW-ATL/DAL/HOU nonstop service if NK DTW-ATL/DFW/IAH nonstop service is dropped.

Here were the number of passengers, number of seats, and load factors that WN had on DTW-ATL/DAL in 2019:
DTW-ATL - 85366 passengers, 104518 seats, 81.68% load factor (WN DTW-ATL nonstop service dropped in June 2019)
DTW-DAL - 99204 passengers, 120304 seats, 82.46% load factor

There would likely be more than enough demand for daily WN nonstop service to ATL/DAL if NK DTW-ATL/DFW nonstop service is dropped with the amount of demand that was previously there for WN DTW-ATL/DAL nonstop service.

flymco753 wrote:

The words cut/slash/reduce is the new norm at DTW, NK plans to drastically reduce their DTW crew base according to a poster on another thread.

Things klm617 used to say are happening.

Lets not revisit that. Let’s collectively and strategically capture the vision of a future Metro Airport instead of constant naysaying regarding the status of DTW. Yes DTW is seeing some dark times and even if we continue to see drastic reductions it is fine. Our airport is going to constantly change with market conditions and in 3 years when we are in the middle of a recession, DTW will rise to the occasion and BOS will be in the dumps, our time will come and be patient.