Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:Look at the end of the day IDGAF what DL does with their network at DTW.
There are business reasons for doing what they are doing.
I really don't care how other hubs measure up one way or another.
As long as we collectively have access to be able to fly to where we want, when we want, fine.
I would love for more yes, but I also realize this industry is changing and not what it was pre-pandemic let alone what it was 10-15 years ago when turboprops and RJs were being flung all over the place.
I don't think there is a grand conspiracy theory out there.
Yes, DL has over-emphasized on the coastal hubs/gateways (even self admitted recently).
DTW is not immune to what is going on elsewhere.
As I said, look at DL at MSP, AA at ORD, AA at PHL, etc. There are a lot of brutal cuts across the board.
Until the post-collapse of the regional airline industry model is sorted out this what you have.
flymco753 wrote:CWA is next on the DTW chopping block. I am going to say that BGM, BMI, CHA, ITH, and SCE are next. After that virtually the only CRJ flying will be intra-MI routes.
Starting to see the shift, MSP-BNA has more frequency and capacity than DTW-BNA, that's just one of the many routes we are seeing where historically DTW had more capacity and are now falling short to MSP and NYC.
...but things are just fine at DTW.
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:FWIW.....one should go look at the AA Network thread to see how abysmal AA's schedule is for ORD this winter.
A lot of crazy deep cuts in destinations and frequencies......even stuff that DL is flying at much higher capacity at DTW than AA at ORD this winter.
GSP psgr wrote:PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:FWIW.....one should go look at the AA Network thread to see how abysmal AA's schedule is for ORD this winter.
A lot of crazy deep cuts in destinations and frequencies......even stuff that DL is flying at much higher capacity at DTW than AA at ORD this winter.
ORD sounds like it's functionally going to be a 2 bank hub in January for AA, which is just....wow. As bad as the cuts DL's made, they are not the wholesale clear cutting that AA's doing to prop up CLT and DFW flying. There's some speculation that it's because of a gap in the cutover to Air Wisconsin taking over all of the 50 seat flying for them from Chicago. Thing is, with Mesa sounding like they want to bail on the CR9 flying they're doing from PHX and DFW as Eagle, things could continue to get worse instead of better over there.
I also wonder how long the mainline sized aircraft hiring binge keeps going for; I've continually read that the biggest problem isn't so much FOs right now as it is getting incoming Captains checked out in the CR7/CR9/E70/E75 aircraft and keeping them around.
flymco753 wrote:As I’ve said before, DTW is my home airport and I am happy to use it on my trips back home. However, the reason I am such a harsh critic is because we all know what the airport is capable of doing.
Firstly, unlike MSP who has SY and IND/PIT/LCK/GRR/PIT/etc have G4, DTW has no dedicated low cost airline. NK is no longer vested into DTW as they were 10 years ago. For DTW this is a bad situation because it’s keeping fares extremely high and allowing Delta to put a choke on markets. What is B6 going to do? Not very much, they’re just going to fill the void that Southwest refuses to fill in Detroit. Stimulated demand from B6 will not be as dramatic as a low cost airline and now they have the power to choke certain markets as well.
Second, we all know DTW can support a lower cost European airline. There was an article published some time ago that the WCAA was working to get a replacement yet, here we are on the bottom of their lists, klm617 used to beat this like a dead horse and quite frankly was right about it.
Lastly, this airport is capable of securing Volaris or Viva Aerobus to places like GDL that see a decent amount of VFR traffic. AM was going to attempt it and I think they would have had a fair shot.
So yes, I am rough with my statements about DTW but that’s only because we know what the airport is capable of doing, so let’s see those results or see progress in those results. All we are seeing is market suppression and historic lows in frequency and capacity.
WidebodyPTV wrote:
It's just ironic how the same posters who come here to dance on the corpse of DTW (and it's the same posters for many years)... are the first to defend the drop/cut/whatever at their hometown / favorite airport IAH, MSP, ORD, etc. Again... it's happening nearly everywhere. IDK why people wanna keep insisting DTW is "different." Look at the fares and loads from DTW... but I guess the cuts to SBN are going to make it collapse Or better yet, DL will move the DTW hub to and reopen the CVG hub when Kroger completes its acquisition of Albertsons.
flymco753 wrote:Let me offer some discussion on something here. If you go on Google flights you can toy around with airlines, dates, etc.
In my first case I am using DTW-SRQ, I searched round trip ticket fares from Jan 11th to Jan 20th. The price of the nonstop ticket in basic economy is $258 nonstop or $227 via LGA. This appears to be common as well with CHS, PBI, and JAX as well.
Next is DTW-SAN, I looked up flights from Dec 8th to Dec 12th and basic economy nonstop fares are $531 but are $484 via SEA. This is common with SFO as well.
Lastly is DTW-CUN. On most weeks in December fares are almost $150 more to fly nonstop to Cancun as opposed to stopping in MSP.
Yet, when we look at LGA-OMA, DSM, or IND it’s cheaper to fly nonstop or connect in MSP or ATL as opposed to DTW. It seems like, in order to connect in DTW you need to pay a premium, which emerging from the COVID world we know is going to be much less common.
When DTW loses a CRJ route, frequency to currently served destinations will decline with it. There’s nobody keeping anyone honest at DTW like Sun Country does in Minneapolis or JetBlue in Boston.
LAXdude1023 wrote:Those examples are all very fair prices. I fail to see what the complaint is.
hjulicher wrote:DTW is fortunate to be a hub, but given the lack of competition, there isn't much incentive to add any traffic flows via DTW. The market is captive and not easily susceptible to new entry for this reason. This is not the case at hubs with more competition.
DL knows the grip it has on the market. In all major markets that are served ex DTW, I believe DL is the dominant carrier on all hub-to-hub city-pairs. Other airlines simply do not have the customer draw in DTW thereby making the market hard to penetrate. I also believe that demand ex DTW is likely higher than demand into DTW, which also makes the DTW customer loyalty bias towards the home carrier (DL) more noticeable. This is also seen on the international level as well.
hjulicher wrote:Comparable markets to DTW are not IND, CMH, CLE, CVG or PIT. Those markets are easily 1/2 as large as the DTW metropolitan area. In fact, I imagine that DTW pulls actually a bit from CLE. Markets like SEA, MSP, DEN, PHX, PHL are, imo, more comparable to DTW. I think that is what many posters do not realize.
TonyClifton wrote:Looking at numbers on wiki for DTW and MSP, Spirit flies twice as many pax from DTW as Sun Country does MSP. I’m not sure why there’s an obsession to paint DTW as dying. They’ve got a major legacy hub and a ULCC, they punch far above their weight. You can’t get directly to Nagoya from anywhere else in the US. Yes some smaller RJ routes have been cut, more is coming to many other hubs. As legacies grow and offset their regionals, you’ll see it pick back up. I guarantee DTW is happy with how they are compared to any other comparable city: CVG, CMH, CLE, PIT, IND and so on.
hjulicher wrote:Comparable markets to DTW are not IND, CMH, CLE, CVG or PIT. Those markets are easily 1/2 as large as the DTW metropolitan area. In fact, I imagine that DTW pulls actually a bit from CLE. Markets like SEA, MSP, DEN, PHX, PHL are, imo, more comparable to DTW. I think that is what many posters do not realize.
DTW is fortunate to be a hub, but given the lack of competition, there isn't much incentive to add any traffic flows via DTW. The market is captive and not easily susceptible to new entry for this reason. This is not the case at hubs with more competition.
DL knows the grip it has on the market. In all major markets that are served ex DTW, I believe DL is the dominant carrier on all hub-to-hub city-pairs. Other airlines simply do not have the customer draw in DTW thereby making the market hard to penetrate. I also believe that demand ex DTW is likely higher than demand into DTW, which also makes the DTW customer loyalty bias towards the home carrier (DL) more noticeable. This is also seen on the international level as well. The best that competing airlines can achieve is parity with DL on trunk-routes, and likely only because they have a very strong hub one the other end (ie. FRA, DFW, CLT) In fact, I cannot think of one 'major' city pair with a competing legacy/network carrier which has dominance over DL.
WidebodyPTV wrote:hjulicher wrote:Comparable markets to DTW are not IND, CMH, CLE, CVG or PIT. Those markets are easily 1/2 as large as the DTW metropolitan area. In fact, I imagine that DTW pulls actually a bit from CLE. Markets like SEA, MSP, DEN, PHX, PHL are, imo, more comparable to DTW. I think that is what many posters do not realize.
They realize it. They've been participating on here for ~20 years and have seen the data. They just don't care - they want to push their agenda.
WA707atMSP wrote:3. MSP is 100 miles further from Chicago than DTW is. Although this may seem like a short distance, it means driving between MSP and Chicago takes two hours longer in each direction than driving between DTW and Chicago does. Amtrak also has fewer trains between Minneapolis and Chicago than they do between Detroit and Chicago, and Amtrak is less reliable in Minneapolis because many of their trains to Chicago originate in Seattle and get delayed in Montana or North Dakota. Because surface travel is less appealing between MSP and Chicago than it is between DTW and Chicago, far more people fly from MSP to Chicago.
WA707atMSP wrote:I've said this before, but I'll say it again: I grew up in the Detroit area and live in Minneapolis now, and because of geography the air travel markets in the two cities are NOT directly comparable, so comparing DL's operations at the two cities is meaningless due to factors beyond the airline or airports' control. Here are some reasons why it's misleading to compare the two air travel markets:
1. It's feasible to drive from the Detroit area to the gulf coast of Florida in one (long) day, but because Minneapolis is several hundred miles further from Florida than Detroit is, and because drivers from Minneapolis to Florida have to deal with the congested freeways in the Chicago area, people driving between Minneapolis and Florida have to spend a night at a hotel partway through their journey in each direction. Because driving from MSP to Florida is significantly longer and more expensive than driving from Detroit to Florida is, a higher percentage of people in the MSP area choose to fly there. This enables MSP to support more flights to Florida than Detroit does.
2. Because Minnesota is several hundred miles west of Michigan, many more Minnesotans than Michiganders vacation or retire in Arizona. However, in the winter driving between Minnesota and Arizona isn't an option because of ice and snow in the Rockies. The popularity of Arizona further increases air travel demand at MSP.
3. MSP is 100 miles further from Chicago than DTW is. Although this may seem like a short distance, it means driving between MSP and Chicago takes two hours longer in each direction than driving between DTW and Chicago does. Amtrak also has fewer trains between Minneapolis and Chicago than they do between Detroit and Chicago, and Amtrak is less reliable in Minneapolis because many of their trains to Chicago originate in Seattle and get delayed in Montana or North Dakota. Because surface travel is less appealing between MSP and Chicago than it is between DTW and Chicago, far more people fly from MSP to Chicago.
4. The longer distance between MSP and Chicago also means fewer long haul travelers choose to drive to Chicago for lower fares. Unlike in Detroit, travel to Canada for low long haul fares isn't an option, either, because YWG is much farther from MSP than YYZ is from DTW, and YWG has far less international service than YYZ.
5. The wealthier neighborhoods in the MSP area are much closer to MSP airport than the wealthier neighborhoods in the Detroit area are to DTW. Although St. Cloud is about as far from MSP as FNT is from DTW, St Cloud has struggled far more than FNT has to attract air service, even though St Cloud is a college town, because St. Cloud can't draw on any upper middle class suburbs of Minneapolis like FNT draws on the upper middle class suburbs of Oakland County.
Although this is a long post, hopefully it will put to rest the argument that "DL favors MSP over DTW" once and for all.
usflyer msp wrote:TonyClifton wrote:Looking at numbers on wiki for DTW and MSP, Spirit flies twice as many pax from DTW as Sun Country does MSP. I’m not sure why there’s an obsession to paint DTW as dying. They’ve got a major legacy hub and a ULCC, they punch far above their weight. You can’t get directly to Nagoya from anywhere else in the US. Yes some smaller RJ routes have been cut, more is coming to many other hubs. As legacies grow and offset their regionals, you’ll see it pick back up. I guarantee DTW is happy with how they are compared to any other comparable city: CVG, CMH, CLE, PIT, IND and so on.
I agree with your point but just a correction - SY/MSP is now around 1/4 bigger than NK/DTW.
Most recent stats - August 2022
SY/MSP - 145,964 enplanements - up 10.5% over August 2019
NK/DTW - 116,339 enplanements - down 31.2% over August 2019
usflyer msp wrote:AA's cuts at ORD are not as detrimental to their network as DL's cuts at DTW and MSP. AA services most outstations from multiple hubs so you rarely find a "you just can't get there from here unless you take 1000m detour to ATL" situation like you do with DL. Minor outstations like GRR also have flights to PHL, DCA, CLT, MIA, DFW and PHX so frequency cuts at ORD are not affecting the overall connectivity in a major way.
WidebodyPTV wrote:PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:Look at the end of the day IDGAF what DL does with their network at DTW.
There are business reasons for doing what they are doing.
I really don't care how other hubs measure up one way or another.
As long as we collectively have access to be able to fly to where we want, when we want, fine.
I would love for more yes, but I also realize this industry is changing and not what it was pre-pandemic let alone what it was 10-15 years ago when turboprops and RJs were being flung all over the place.
I don't think there is a grand conspiracy theory out there.
Yes, DL has over-emphasized on the coastal hubs/gateways (even self admitted recently).
DTW is not immune to what is going on elsewhere.
As I said, look at DL at MSP, AA at ORD, AA at PHL, etc. There are a lot of brutal cuts across the board.
Until the post-collapse of the regional airline industry model is sorted out this what you have.
Key point: it's happening nearly everywhere.
LAXIntl posted a comparison of UA Aug 2019 vs. Aug 2020 (SFO appears in an earlier post):
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468679&p=23509859#p23509859
It's just ironic how the same posters who come here to dance on the corpse of DTW (and it's the same posters for many years)... are the first to defend the drop/cut/whatever at their hometown / favorite airport IAH, MSP, ORD, etc. Again... it's happening nearly everywhere. IDK why people wanna keep insisting DTW is "different." Look at the fares and loads from DTW... but I guess the cuts to SBN are going to make it collapse Or better yet, DL will move the DTW hub to and reopen the CVG hub when Kroger completes its acquisition of Albertsons.
MIflyer12 wrote:usflyer msp wrote:AA's cuts at ORD are not as detrimental to their network as DL's cuts at DTW and MSP. AA services most outstations from multiple hubs so you rarely find a "you just can't get there from here unless you take 1000m detour to ATL" situation like you do with DL. Minor outstations like GRR also have flights to PHL, DCA, CLT, MIA, DFW and PHX so frequency cuts at ORD are not affecting the overall connectivity in a major way.
The question isn't if DTW-XXX (let's say SBN) has a positive op margin, but if it has an op margin higher than every other route/frequency in the DL network. If a carrier is frame- or pilot-constrained it's going to rank all x,xxx departures a day and drop the weakest. This isn't DL telling SBN passengers to fly 1,000 miles out of the way... It's DL telling them to fly another carrier because fares/passenger counts don't justify DL dropping other routes to retain SBN-DTW/MSP.
SBN just isn't important to the DL network. SBN ranked #143 is domestic departures for the 12 months ending 7/2022. There's no argument to be made that DL should pull E75s or CR9s out of LGA/JFK or BOS to serve SBN.
Look at domestic cities served by AA/DL/UA in 2019. Look at the counts today. Check back in 2025. The cuts are going to be bloody.
LAXdude1023 wrote:WidebodyPTV wrote:PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:Look at the end of the day IDGAF what DL does with their network at DTW.
There are business reasons for doing what they are doing.
I really don't care how other hubs measure up one way or another.
As long as we collectively have access to be able to fly to where we want, when we want, fine.
I would love for more yes, but I also realize this industry is changing and not what it was pre-pandemic let alone what it was 10-15 years ago when turboprops and RJs were being flung all over the place.
I don't think there is a grand conspiracy theory out there.
Yes, DL has over-emphasized on the coastal hubs/gateways (even self admitted recently).
DTW is not immune to what is going on elsewhere.
As I said, look at DL at MSP, AA at ORD, AA at PHL, etc. There are a lot of brutal cuts across the board.
Until the post-collapse of the regional airline industry model is sorted out this what you have.
Key point: it's happening nearly everywhere.
LAXIntl posted a comparison of UA Aug 2019 vs. Aug 2020 (SFO appears in an earlier post):
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468679&p=23509859#p23509859
It's just ironic how the same posters who come here to dance on the corpse of DTW (and it's the same posters for many years)... are the first to defend the drop/cut/whatever at their hometown / favorite airport IAH, MSP, ORD, etc. Again... it's happening nearly everywhere. IDK why people wanna keep insisting DTW is "different." Look at the fares and loads from DTW... but I guess the cuts to SBN are going to make it collapse Or better yet, DL will move the DTW hub to and reopen the CVG hub when Kroger completes its acquisition of Albertsons.
I don't know of any IAH posters that put down DTW. I mean, I'm the only one who posts on the DTW thread regularly and I always stand up for DTW. I love the city and the area and see the value of the hub.
DTW is a very valuable market. I think what might be hurting DTW is China. DTW is has been DL's gateway to Asia and not having China hurts DTW just as it does SFO and DFW. MSP didn't have as many connections to Asia and as a result not having them is not a big of a deal over there. All in all I don't see MSP or DTW above one another. They just fill different roles.
usflyer msp wrote:TonyClifton wrote:Looking at numbers on wiki for DTW and MSP, Spirit flies twice as many pax from DTW as Sun Country does MSP. I’m not sure why there’s an obsession to paint DTW as dying. They’ve got a major legacy hub and a ULCC, they punch far above their weight. You can’t get directly to Nagoya from anywhere else in the US. Yes some smaller RJ routes have been cut, more is coming to many other hubs. As legacies grow and offset their regionals, you’ll see it pick back up. I guarantee DTW is happy with how they are compared to any other comparable city: CVG, CMH, CLE, PIT, IND and so on.
I agree with your point but just a correction - SY/MSP is now around 1/4 bigger than NK/DTW.
Most recent stats - August 2022
SY/MSP - 145,964 enplanements - up 10.5% over August 2019
NK/DTW - 116,339 enplanements - down 31.2% over August 2019
dtwpilot225 wrote:Dtw - hnl now a 350 through March at least
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:I will eat my crow this week….
BGM, ITH, SCE going to LGA.
WTF.
kavok wrote:With all respect, I don’t believe the China or “Asia being down” argument really doesn’t hold that much weight. For one, despite being (and still being) one of DL’s key Asian hubs, that still only meant 5 total flights… some of which weren’t daily. In 2019 the 5 Asian destinations were HND, NGO, ICN, PVG, PEK. Admittedly PEK is gone for now, but all the others are back (and mostly all operated through the pandemic, albeit at lower frequencies). Arguably currently PVG is no longer daily (because of Chinese restrictions), and operates with a technical stop in ICN, but even now it is still operating a few days a week. And arguably, though domestic, DTW has picked up A330/350 “fly over the pacific”service to HNL which didn’t exist in 2019 (except a handful of dates around the holidays).
Point being, there really aren’t that many fewer seats TPAC now than existed in 2019, especially if you add HNL into equation.
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:I will eat my crow this week….
BGM, ITH, SCE going to LGA.
WTF.
GSP psgr wrote:SkyWest announcing that block hours are going to be cut by 20% from what they've been flying this year can't be good for DTW. Granted, Delta should be able to fly more mainline ASMs this summer, but I wouldn't expect any huge trickle down of CR9s and E75s freed up by those increased 717 hours now.
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:I will eat my crow this week….
BGM, ITH, SCE going to LGA.
WTF.
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:GSP psgr wrote:SkyWest announcing that block hours are going to be cut by 20% from what they've been flying this year can't be good for DTW. Granted, Delta should be able to fly more mainline ASMs this summer, but I wouldn't expect any huge trickle down of CR9s and E75s freed up by those increased 717 hours now.
I am thinking a lot of this hopefully has already been reflected in the current and forward schedule as seen with the recent rounds of cuts taking effect in Q4 2022 and now in Q1 2023.
The wheels really didn't start coming off over at Skywest until the second half of 2022 when the staffing constraints really started to impact capacity.
While the are down 20% from 2022, I'd be curious how much they are down from 2019.
Here is OO's DTW number of departures per day of the course of 2022:
March: 58
CRJ2 12 (7 EAS, 5 pro-rate/at-risk)
CRJ9 46
August: 69
CRJ2 18 (7 EAS, 11 pro-rate/at-risk)
CRJ7 6
CRJ9 45
October: 48
CRJ2 8 (8 EAS)
CRJ7 5
CRJ9 35
OO already cut all CR2 flying at DTW, except for the EAS flying.
SBN, flown by a OO CR9 ends this month
SCE, flown by a OO CR7 ends in early-Jan, switching to 9E via LGA
9E is backfilling a lot of the OO flying at DTW, and more so as 9E winds down its CR2 operation and can better staff / utilize their CR7/CR9s and get a few more frames out of storage.
flymco753 wrote:The words cut/slash/reduce is the new norm at DTW, NK plans to drastically reduce their DTW crew base according to a poster on another thread.
flymco753 wrote:Lets not revisit that. Let’s collectively and strategically capture the vision of a future Metro Airport instead of constant naysaying regarding the status of DTW. Yes DTW is seeing some dark times and even if we continue to see drastic reductions it is fine. Our airport is going to constantly change with market conditions and in 3 years when we are in the middle of a recession, DTW will rise to the occasion and BOS will be in the dumps, our time will come and be patient.The words cut/slash/reduce is the new norm at DTW, NK plans to drastically reduce their DTW crew base according to a poster on another thread.
Things klm617 used to say are happening.