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DartHerald
Posts: 228
Joined: Mon Nov 14, 2016 2:08 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 1:35 pm

UA857 wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Potential 777X customers:

777-9:
United - 22
American- 20
Qantas - 12
KLM - 16
EVA Air - 16
Air China - 20
China Eastern - 20
China Southern - 20
Korean Air - 20
Air Canada - 12
Air India - 16
Turkish Airlines - 12
Ethiopian Airlines - 10
Saudia - 12
Egyptair - 6
Bambo Airways - 12
Thai Airways - 12
Air New Zealand - 8

777-8F:
FedEx - 25
DHL - 20
Lufthansa Cargo - 10
Emirates SkyCargo - 50
Turkish Airlines Cargo - 8
Singapore Airlines Cargo - 7


To add what I posted

777-9:
United - 22 - 77W compliment assuming that the A350 order will be converted to A220s and additional A321XLRs.
American- 20 - 77W compliment
Qantas - 12 - A380 replacement if Boeing offers them a good deal on 779s.
KLM - 16 - 77E replacement and 77W compliment.
EVA Air - 16 - early 77W replacement
Air China - 20 - early 77W replacement
China Eastern - 20 - need capacity
China Southern - 20 - A380 replacement.
Korean Air - 20 - A380/748 replacement
Air Canada - 12 - early 77W replacement
Air India - 16 - early 77W replacement
Turkish Airlines - 12 - early 77W replacement
Ethiopian Airlines - 10 - 77L/77W replacement
Saudia - 12 - early 77W replacement
Egyptair - 6 - early 77W replacement
Bambo Airways - 12 - need capacity
Thai Airways - 12 - A380/773 replacement
Air New Zealand - 7 - 77W replacement assuming there 8 78Js on order will replace the 77E.

777-8F:
FedEx - 25 - need capacity
DHL - 20 - need capacity
Lufthansa Cargo - 10 - MD-11 replacement
Emirates SkyCargo - 50 - need capacity
Turkish Airlines Cargo - 8 - need capacity
Singapore Airlines Cargo - 7 - need capacity



There have been reports in the aviation press that AI, under its new ownership, have been talking to Airbus about a possible A350 purchase. If that happens I cannot see them wanting the 777X as well. There may be others as well - it is hard to envisage all of the sales falling to Boeing.
 
VV
Posts: 2400
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 2:59 pm

I am wondering if the combined 777-9, 77-8 and 77-8F total deliveries would exceed 1,000 units during the first 20 years after EIS or even earlier.
 
RMTAviation
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:54 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:26 pm

VV wrote:
I am wondering if the combined 777-9, 77-8 and 77-8F total deliveries would exceed 1,000 units during the first 20 years after EIS or even earlier.


I would say easily 700 777-9 and 300 777-8X in the first 20 years after deliveries begin is a reasonable target that will be achieved. Airports will be a lot more congested in the 2030's and 2040's, and there are gonna be some need of this size aircraft with the lack of 4 engine aircraft.
 
MoonC
Posts: 408
Joined: Fri Dec 06, 2013 1:26 am

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:31 pm

UA857 wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Potential 777X customers:

777-9:
United - 22
American- 20
Qantas - 12
KLM - 16
EVA Air - 16
Air China - 20
China Eastern - 20
China Southern - 20
Korean Air - 20
Air Canada - 12
Air India - 16
Turkish Airlines - 12
Ethiopian Airlines - 10
Saudia - 12
Egyptair - 6
Bambo Airways - 12
Thai Airways - 12
Air New Zealand - 8

777-8F:
FedEx - 25
DHL - 20
Lufthansa Cargo - 10
Emirates SkyCargo - 50
Turkish Airlines Cargo - 8
Singapore Airlines Cargo - 7


To add what I posted

777-9:
United - 22 - 77W compliment assuming that the A350 order will be converted to A220s and additional A321XLRs.
American- 20 - 77W compliment
Qantas - 12 - A380 replacement if Boeing offers them a good deal on 779s.
KLM - 16 - 77E replacement and 77W compliment.
EVA Air - 16 - early 77W replacement
Air China - 20 - early 77W replacement
China Eastern - 20 - need capacity
China Southern - 20 - A380 replacement.
Korean Air - 20 - A380/748 replacement
Air Canada - 12 - early 77W replacement
Air India - 16 - early 77W replacement
Turkish Airlines - 12 - early 77W replacement
Ethiopian Airlines - 10 - 77L/77W replacement
Saudia - 12 - early 77W replacement
Egyptair - 6 - early 77W replacement
Bambo Airways - 12 - need capacity
Thai Airways - 12 - A380/773 replacement
Air New Zealand - 7 - 77W replacement assuming there 8 78Js on order will replace the 77E.

777-8F:
FedEx - 25 - need capacity
DHL - 20 - need capacity
Lufthansa Cargo - 10 - MD-11 replacement
Emirates SkyCargo - 50 - need capacity
Turkish Airlines Cargo - 8 - need capacity
Singapore Airlines Cargo - 7 - need capacity


A list worthy of Simple Flying.
 
UA857
Posts: 756
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:35 pm

DartHerald wrote:
UA857 wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Potential 777X customers:

777-9:
United - 22
American- 20
Qantas - 12
KLM - 16
EVA Air - 16
Air China - 20
China Eastern - 20
China Southern - 20
Korean Air - 20
Air Canada - 12
Air India - 16
Turkish Airlines - 12
Ethiopian Airlines - 10
Saudia - 12
Egyptair - 6
Bambo Airways - 12
Thai Airways - 12
Air New Zealand - 8

777-8F:
FedEx - 25
DHL - 20
Lufthansa Cargo - 10
Emirates SkyCargo - 50
Turkish Airlines Cargo - 8
Singapore Airlines Cargo - 7


To add what I posted

777-9:
United - 22 - 77W compliment assuming that the A350 order will be converted to A220s and additional A321XLRs.
American- 20 - 77W compliment
Qantas - 12 - A380 replacement if Boeing offers them a good deal on 779s.
KLM - 16 - 77E replacement and 77W compliment.
EVA Air - 16 - early 77W replacement
Air China - 20 - early 77W replacement
China Eastern - 20 - need capacity
China Southern - 20 - A380 replacement.
Korean Air - 20 - A380/748 replacement
Air Canada - 12 - early 77W replacement
Air India - 16 - early 77W replacement
Turkish Airlines - 12 - early 77W replacement
Ethiopian Airlines - 10 - 77L/77W replacement
Saudia - 12 - early 77W replacement
Egyptair - 6 - early 77W replacement
Bambo Airways - 12 - need capacity
Thai Airways - 12 - A380/773 replacement
Air New Zealand - 7 - 77W replacement assuming there 8 78Js on order will replace the 77E.

777-8F:
FedEx - 25 - need capacity
DHL - 20 - need capacity
Lufthansa Cargo - 10 - MD-11 replacement
Emirates SkyCargo - 50 - need capacity
Turkish Airlines Cargo - 8 - need capacity
Singapore Airlines Cargo - 7 - need capacity



There have been reports in the aviation press that AI, under its new ownership, have been talking to Airbus about a possible A350 purchase. If that happens I cannot see them wanting the 777X as well. There may be others as well - it is hard to envisage all of the sales falling to Boeing.


AI should order 16 777-9s to replace the 4 remaining 747-400s and 12 early 777-300ER and 8 787-9HGWs to replace the 777-200LR as the 789/779 have better commonality with their current fleet.
Last edited by UA857 on Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
UA857
Posts: 756
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:44 pm

DartHerald wrote:
UA857 wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Potential 777X customers:

777-9:
United - 22
American- 20
Qantas - 12
KLM - 16
EVA Air - 16
Air China - 20
China Eastern - 20
China Southern - 20
Korean Air - 20
Air Canada - 12
Air India - 16
Turkish Airlines - 12
Ethiopian Airlines - 10
Saudia - 12
Egyptair - 6
Bambo Airways - 12
Thai Airways - 12
Air New Zealand - 8

777-8F:
FedEx - 25
DHL - 20
Lufthansa Cargo - 10
Emirates SkyCargo - 50
Turkish Airlines Cargo - 8
Singapore Airlines Cargo - 7


To add what I posted

777-9:
United - 22 - 77W compliment assuming that the A350 order will be converted to A220s and additional A321XLRs.
American- 20 - 77W compliment
Qantas - 12 - A380 replacement if Boeing offers them a good deal on 779s.
KLM - 16 - 77E replacement and 77W compliment.
EVA Air - 16 - early 77W replacement
Air China - 20 - early 77W replacement
China Eastern - 20 - need capacity
China Southern - 20 - A380 replacement.
Korean Air - 20 - A380/748 replacement
Air Canada - 12 - early 77W replacement
Air India - 16 - early 77W replacement
Turkish Airlines - 12 - early 77W replacement
Ethiopian Airlines - 10 - 77L/77W replacement
Saudia - 12 - early 77W replacement
Egyptair - 6 - early 77W replacement
Bambo Airways - 12 - need capacity
Thai Airways - 12 - A380/773 replacement
Air New Zealand - 7 - 77W replacement assuming there 8 78Js on order will replace the 77E.

777-8F:
FedEx - 25 - need capacity
DHL - 20 - need capacity
Lufthansa Cargo - 10 - MD-11 replacement
Emirates SkyCargo - 50 - need capacity
Turkish Airlines Cargo - 8 - need capacity
Singapore Airlines Cargo - 7 - need capacity



There have been reports in the aviation press that AI, under its new ownership, have been talking to Airbus about a possible A350 purchase. If that happens I cannot see them wanting the 777X as well. There may be others as well - it is hard to envisage all of the sales falling to Boeing.

Won’t the 779 have greater payload capacity/hot and high performance then the A35K? I can’t imagine the A35K beating the 779 terms of sales with cargo demand high in the post-COVID world won’t we see an uptake in 779 sales?
 
UA857
Posts: 756
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:50 pm

VV wrote:
I am wondering if the combined 777-9, 77-8 and 77-8F total deliveries would exceed 1,000 units during the first 20 years after EIS or even earlier.


I doubt that there will ever be a 777-8 as Boeing just announced the 787-9HGW. If anything most of the 777-8 ULH missions can be done by 787-9, A350-900/1000 and 777-9.
 
mig17
Posts: 433
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:34 am

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 3:55 pm

What are the real, officialy disclosed by Boeing or it's customer, 777-X sales campaign going on? Not speculations.

For exemple:
- Fedex is in talk with Airbus and Boeing putting the A350-F and the XF in competition.
- Qatar Airways has some XF options aside from the 14 firm XF.
- Ethiopian Airlines for both XF and -9.
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 1405
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 4:28 pm

RMTAviation wrote:
VV wrote:
I am wondering if the combined 777-9, 77-8 and 77-8F total deliveries would exceed 1,000 units during the first 20 years after EIS or even earlier.


I would say easily 700 777-9 and 300 777-8X in the first 20 years after deliveries begin is a reasonable target that will be achieved. Airports will be a lot more congested in the 2030's and 2040's, and there are gonna be some need of this size aircraft with the lack of 4 engine aircraft.


I really think Boeing can be happy with 600 in the 20 years. Within 8-10 years of EIS we will see an Ultrafan 787-10/11 and an Ultrafan 350 900/1000/1100. The problem of the 77X is not its performance per se but it is so late to the show regarding its engines. While the best at the moment the next gen is literally around the corner.
 
RMTAviation
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:54 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 4:45 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:
VV wrote:
I am wondering if the combined 777-9, 77-8 and 77-8F total deliveries would exceed 1,000 units during the first 20 years after EIS or even earlier.


I would say easily 700 777-9 and 300 777-8X in the first 20 years after deliveries begin is a reasonable target that will be achieved. Airports will be a lot more congested in the 2030's and 2040's, and there are gonna be some need of this size aircraft with the lack of 4 engine aircraft.


I really think Boeing can be happy with 600 in the 20 years. Within 8-10 years of EIS we will see an Ultrafan 787-10/11 and an Ultrafan 350 900/1000/1100. The problem of the 77X is not its performance per se but it is so late to the show regarding its engines. While the best at the moment the next gen is literally around the corner.


Boeing can barely even produce the regular 787's at the moment, I doubt Ultrafan's won't come in the foreseeable future.
 
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PolarRoute
Posts: 126
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 3:56 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:20 pm

UA857 wrote:
DartHerald wrote:
UA857 wrote:

To add what I posted

777-9:
United - 22 - 77W compliment assuming that the A350 order will be converted to A220s and additional A321XLRs.
American- 20 - 77W compliment
Qantas - 12 - A380 replacement if Boeing offers them a good deal on 779s.
KLM - 16 - 77E replacement and 77W compliment.
EVA Air - 16 - early 77W replacement
Air China - 20 - early 77W replacement
China Eastern - 20 - need capacity
China Southern - 20 - A380 replacement.
Korean Air - 20 - A380/748 replacement
Air Canada - 12 - early 77W replacement
Air India - 16 - early 77W replacement
Turkish Airlines - 12 - early 77W replacement
Ethiopian Airlines - 10 - 77L/77W replacement
Saudia - 12 - early 77W replacement
Egyptair - 6 - early 77W replacement
Bambo Airways - 12 - need capacity
Thai Airways - 12 - A380/773 replacement
Air New Zealand - 7 - 77W replacement assuming there 8 78Js on order will replace the 77E.

777-8F:
FedEx - 25 - need capacity
DHL - 20 - need capacity
Lufthansa Cargo - 10 - MD-11 replacement
Emirates SkyCargo - 50 - need capacity
Turkish Airlines Cargo - 8 - need capacity
Singapore Airlines Cargo - 7 - need capacity



There have been reports in the aviation press that AI, under its new ownership, have been talking to Airbus about a possible A350 purchase. If that happens I cannot see them wanting the 777X as well. There may be others as well - it is hard to envisage all of the sales falling to Boeing.

Won’t the 779 have greater payload capacity/hot and high performance then the A35K? I can’t imagine the A35K beating the 779 terms of sales with cargo demand high in the post-COVID world won’t we see an uptake in 779 sales?

While the 779 do have more space, its capacity in terms of 'load', ie weight, is just about the same as the 351, taking 43t out to 7300nm as per Boeing.
 
VV
Posts: 2400
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 9:27 am

UA857 wrote:
Potential 777X customers:

777-9:
United - 22
American- 20
Qantas - 12
KLM - 16
EVA Air - 16
Air China - 20
China Eastern - 20
China Southern - 20
Korean Air - 20
Air Canada - 12
Air India - 16
Turkish Airlines - 12
Ethiopian Airlines - 10
Saudia - 12
Egyptair - 6
Bambo Airways - 12
Thai Airways - 12
Air New Zealand - 8

777-8F:
FedEx - 25
DHL - 20
Lufthansa Cargo - 10
Emirates SkyCargo - 50
Turkish Airlines Cargo - 8
Singapore Airlines Cargo - 7


Your comment starts with "Potential 777X customers:" (emphasis added).

In reality the list of "potential" 777X customers is quite long because a lot of long haul operators could potentially be 777X customer, just like they can be potential A350 customers.

In my opinion, there are not so many active campaigns nowadays. There cannot be many active campaigns for the 777X, neither there are may active campaigns for A350.

There are probably only about three to four active sales campaigns for the 777X and roughly the same number for the A350. Other activities are probably just "marketing" effort to maintain the interest for those widebody aircraft warm.

Let us be realistic. Please look into how many decent widebody aircraft are still stored or parked. The number is just mind-boggling.
The effort to put all those decent widebody aircraft back into service would probably take more than twelve months. In the meantime it is a heresy to think there would be a lot of widebody aircraft sales activity beyond for the activity to re-market those aircraft cancelled or deferred or prematurely ended lease by different airlines.

There are a hell lot of 787, 777-300ER, A350-1000 and A330neo to re-market nowadays.
 
User avatar
reidar76
Posts: 685
Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 5:16 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:08 am

The 777X is not getting any younger, technology wise, while waiting for certification.

The 777X program was launched in 2013! The A350-1000 and 777X was in development at the same time, with the A350-1000 service entry in 2018, and with the 777-9 scheduled for service entry in 2019.

Now Reuters reports (https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-04-22/) that the 777X will be delayed (again) "by at least a year". First possible service entry for 777-9 is in late 2025. I think there will be even more delays.

I think it is now likely that the A350neo (ultrafan) will be launched before 777X service entry. The lifespan of the 777X program will be shorter than most here anticipates. My guess is that the 777X will have an even smaller share of the long-haul widebody market than the A380 had.

When the 777X eventually gets certified, it will be a separate type from the 77W.
 
VV
Posts: 2400
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:19 am

reidar76 wrote:
...

I think it is now likely that the A350neo (ultrafan) will be launched before 777X service entry. The lifespan of the 777X program will be shorter than most here anticipates. My guess is that the 777X will have an even smaller share of the long-haul widebody market than the A380 had.

When the 777X eventually gets certified, it will be a separate type from the 77W.


The 777X has always been a distinct program from the 777-300ER/777-200LR/777F.

As for the A350neo (whatever it is or is not) with Ultrafan, it is NOT going to happen in the timeline you mentioned. It is just impossible.
 
chiad
Posts: 1421
Joined: Tue May 16, 2006 4:24 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:10 am

VV wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
...

I think it is now likely that the A350neo (ultrafan) will be launched before 777X service entry. The lifespan of the 777X program will be shorter than most here anticipates. My guess is that the 777X will have an even smaller share of the long-haul widebody market than the A380 had.

When the 777X eventually gets certified, it will be a separate type from the 77W.


The 777X has always been a distinct program from the 777-300ER/777-200LR/777F.

As for the A350neo (whatever it is or is not) with Ultrafan, it is NOT going to happen in the timeline you mentioned. It is just impossible.


Why is it just impossible that the A350neo Ultrafan will be launched within 3 year?
 
FluidFlow
Posts: 1405
Joined: Wed Apr 10, 2019 6:39 am

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:11 am

VV wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
...

I think it is now likely that the A350neo (ultrafan) will be launched before 777X service entry. The lifespan of the 777X program will be shorter than most here anticipates. My guess is that the 777X will have an even smaller share of the long-haul widebody market than the A380 had.

When the 777X eventually gets certified, it will be a separate type from the 77W.


The 777X has always been a distinct program from the 777-300ER/777-200LR/777F.

As for the A350neo (whatever it is or is not) with Ultrafan, it is NOT going to happen in the timeline you mentioned. It is just impossible.


You sure? Program announcement in 2024 and EIS in 2032 sounds realistic. 8 years is a realistic time line and should give RR about 6 to get the engine ready in 2030. This lines up well with the end of the exclusivety clause for the 350. So they can get the clause again for the new engine. Then Airbus has 2 years 2030-2032 to do the flight testing, etc.
 
VV
Posts: 2400
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 12:16 pm

FluidFlow wrote:
VV wrote:
reidar76 wrote:
...

I think it is now likely that the A350neo (ultrafan) will be launched before 777X service entry. The lifespan of the 777X program will be shorter than most here anticipates. My guess is that the 777X will have an even smaller share of the long-haul widebody market than the A380 had.

When the 777X eventually gets certified, it will be a separate type from the 77W.


The 777X has always been a distinct program from the 777-300ER/777-200LR/777F.

As for the A350neo (whatever it is or is not) with Ultrafan, it is NOT going to happen in the timeline you mentioned. It is just impossible.


You sure? Program announcement in 2024 and EIS in 2032 sounds realistic. 8 years is a realistic time line and should give RR about 6 to get the engine ready in 2030. This lines up well with the end of the exclusivety clause for the 350. So they can get the clause again for the new engine. Then Airbus has 2 years 2030-2032 to do the flight testing, etc.


Yes, I am sure.

The thing is that the core of an engine supplies the power for everything in the aircraft. There is a power requirement for take-off, climb and so on (including the electrical power etc.).
The core of an engine within similar technology can only provide so much power, with or without fan gear box.

There is no magic here. You have to have an engine core that is capable of delivering the required power. You cannot increase indefinitely the fuel efficiency of the core. A fan gear is just a source of energy loss. In addition it also weighs a lot.
It would be a miracle if the gear can provide 99.5% of efficiency. 0.5% of energy loss (that is transformed into heat) for a 80-100 klb engine is huge. The (oil) cooling system would be quite complex and heavy.

Basically I am saying that a geared turbofan is probably not a thing for such a big engine.
No, I sincerely do not believe in geared turbofan for application in long-haul widebody aircraft.
You do not need to believe what I said.
 
User avatar
MrHMSH
Posts: 3082
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2013 7:32 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 12:23 pm

RMTAviation wrote:
VV wrote:
I am wondering if the combined 777-9, 77-8 and 77-8F total deliveries would exceed 1,000 units during the first 20 years after EIS or even earlier.


I would say easily 700 777-9 and 300 777-8X in the first 20 years after deliveries begin is a reasonable target that will be achieved. Airports will be a lot more congested in the 2030's and 2040's, and there are gonna be some need of this size aircraft with the lack of 4 engine aircraft.


I think that's optimistic, especially for the -8. It's debatable that the -8 will even be made, and I don't see how it would sell 300 when up against the A359 and 789 which are more flexible and can handle the vast majority of even ULH flying, especially with both having improved capabilities.

Given that the 77W sold 838 with very limited competition (A340 not very competitive, A380 a different size and not too competitive either), I don't see how the X gets to 1000 with the 787 and A350 being so much more flexible ships and by now very well-established.

A lot of the congestion will flow into new routes, as A350s and 787s have opened up a lot of routes between them.
 
mig17
Posts: 433
Joined: Thu Aug 11, 2016 8:34 am

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 12:36 pm

VV wrote:
UA857 wrote:
Potential 777X customers:

777-9:
United - 22
American- 20
Qantas - 12
KLM - 16
EVA Air - 16
Air China - 20
China Eastern - 20
China Southern - 20
Korean Air - 20
Air Canada - 12
Air India - 16
Turkish Airlines - 12
Ethiopian Airlines - 10
Saudia - 12
Egyptair - 6
Bambo Airways - 12
Thai Airways - 12
Air New Zealand - 8

777-8F:
FedEx - 25
DHL - 20
Lufthansa Cargo - 10
Emirates SkyCargo - 50
Turkish Airlines Cargo - 8
Singapore Airlines Cargo - 7


Your comment starts with "Potential 777X customers:" (emphasis added).

In reality the list of "potential" 777X customers is quite long because a lot of long haul operators could potentially be 777X customer, just like they can be potential A350 customers.

In my opinion, there are not so many active campaigns nowadays. There cannot be many active campaigns for the 777X, neither there are may active campaigns for A350.

There are probably only about three to four active sales campaigns for the 777X and roughly the same number for the A350. Other activities are probably just "marketing" effort to maintain the interest for those widebody aircraft warm.

Let us be realistic. Please look into how many decent widebody aircraft are still stored or parked. The number is just mind-boggling.
The effort to put all those decent widebody aircraft back into service would probably take more than twelve months. In the meantime it is a heresy to think there would be a lot of widebody aircraft sales activity beyond for the activity to re-market those aircraft cancelled or deferred or prematurely ended lease by different airlines.

There are a hell lot of 787, 777-300ER, A350-1000 and A330neo to re-market nowadays.

VV, potential as possible and potential as probable are not rhe same thing.
For exemple, AF, UA or AA are still possible customer for the 777-9, but in term of probabilities, I would not bet on it and anyone who does so at this point is far to optimistic.
The 777-X business case window is closing fast with 787 and A350 upgrades in a not so distant future now.
Plus the current orderbook is fragile at least.
 
VV
Posts: 2400
Joined: Sat Feb 13, 2016 1:03 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 12:43 pm

The following is my opinion about the 777-8.

The initial specification of the 777-8 looks like a payload hauler for medium-range routes. I mean it would be good to carry a lot of passengers and cargo (the proportion is up to the airline) on routes up to 5,000 nmi.
As such, it could go very long distances with a more "normal" passenger load.

The latter option, that is the very-long-route version of 777-8, was really needed for very-very few routes like the ones for Project Sunrise network.
When Qantas finally selected the A350-1000 as the platform for Project Sunrise there is no more need to have a very-very-long-haul 777-8 and thus it opened the design space a little bit larger.

As we all know, the 777-8's firm configuration has not been announced so far.
With Qatar's commitment to the 777-8F, it is very likely Boeing would use the leeway opened by the Project Sunrise loss to slightly modify the fuselage length of the 777-8 and 777-8F. As I mentioned above, there is no more need to provide very-very-long-haul capability to the 777-8.

So, it is important to wait until Boeing finally reaches the firm configuration of the 777-8F and 777-8.
I still believe the 777-8 would be launched as a high density passenger hauler combined with interesting cargo capability for distances up to 5,000 nmi.
 
RMTAviation
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:54 pm

Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 1:02 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:
VV wrote:
I am wondering if the combined 777-9, 77-8 and 77-8F total deliveries would exceed 1,000 units during the first 20 years after EIS or even earlier.


I would say easily 700 777-9 and 300 777-8X in the first 20 years after deliveries begin is a reasonable target that will be achieved. Airports will be a lot more congested in the 2030's and 2040's, and there are gonna be some need of this size aircraft with the lack of 4 engine aircraft.


I think that's optimistic, especially for the -8. It's debatable that the -8 will even be made, and I don't see how it would sell 300 when up against the A359 and 789 which are more flexible and can handle the vast majority of even ULH flying, especially with both having improved capabilities.

Given that the 77W sold 838 with very limited competition (A340 not very competitive, A380 a different size and not too competitive either), I don't see how the X gets to 1000 with the 787 and A350 being so much more flexible ships and by now very well-established.

A lot of the congestion will flow into new routes, as A350s and 787s have opened up a lot of routes between them.


Oops, for the 777-8, i meant the freighter version. I still believe that the 777-8 PAX will not be produced.
 
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keesje
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 1:47 pm

The 777-9 is certified using a changed product certification strategy, using the 77W certification. That approach seems the biggest reason 777-9 entry into service has been delayed 5-6 years.

The 777-8F will be certified as changed product using the 777-9 as certification base. A moving target.

Boeing says the first 8F will enter service in 2027, 2 years after promised A350F EIS. I would be careful taking 2027 as a solid, realistic commitment, learning from the previous 20 years.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 2:15 pm

RMTAviation wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:

I would say easily 700 777-9 and 300 777-8X in the first 20 years after deliveries begin is a reasonable target that will be achieved. Airports will be a lot more congested in the 2030's and 2040's, and there are gonna be some need of this size aircraft with the lack of 4 engine aircraft.


I think that's optimistic, especially for the -8. It's debatable that the -8 will even be made, and I don't see how it would sell 300 when up against the A359 and 789 which are more flexible and can handle the vast majority of even ULH flying, especially with both having improved capabilities.

Given that the 77W sold 838 with very limited competition (A340 not very competitive, A380 a different size and not too competitive either), I don't see how the X gets to 1000 with the 787 and A350 being so much more flexible ships and by now very well-established.

A lot of the congestion will flow into new routes, as A350s and 787s have opened up a lot of routes between them.


Oops, for the 777-8, i meant the freighter version. I still believe that the 777-8 PAX will not be produced.


I see, though I'd still say 700 -9s is very optimistic. Especially if EK scale their order down which is looking like a possibility.
 
RMTAviation
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 3:05 pm

MrHMSH wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:
MrHMSH wrote:

I think that's optimistic, especially for the -8. It's debatable that the -8 will even be made, and I don't see how it would sell 300 when up against the A359 and 789 which are more flexible and can handle the vast majority of even ULH flying, especially with both having improved capabilities.

Given that the 77W sold 838 with very limited competition (A340 not very competitive, A380 a different size and not too competitive either), I don't see how the X gets to 1000 with the 787 and A350 being so much more flexible ships and by now very well-established.

A lot of the congestion will flow into new routes, as A350s and 787s have opened up a lot of routes between them.


Oops, for the 777-8, i meant the freighter version. I still believe that the 777-8 PAX will not be produced.


I see, though I'd still say 700 -9s is very optimistic. Especially if EK scale their order down which is looking like a possibility.


I understand that EK is frustrated with the delays, but in all reality, what else is EK going to order to replace their 120 A380's and 130 777's? Sure, the A350-1000/A350-900, and 787's are able to replace some of the 77W routes, but considering the 779 is barely bigger than the 77W, Emirates are going need at least 115 of them to even have a chance of maintaining capacity, but in reality 200. Emirates themselves have said the A380 capacity is doing well for them.

The 77W came out during a different era. In 2004, most of the long haul routes were dominated by the 747, A340, A380 was about to come out, MD-11, etc. There used to be many large jets, such as the 744 and A380's by many airlines, that were retired at the start of the pandemic. All of these airlines, such as BA, Lufthansa, Qantas, KAL, Air China, etc, at the turn of this decade are going to need high capacity aircraft, especially for congested routes. We only have so much airspace, and United can't fly 7 150 seat planes from EWR-LHR forever. Consider the 779 as the replacement to the 77W, 744, 748, A380, rapid globalization and development into the 2040's, and it is not a large stretch in my opinion we can see 700 777-9's sold by 2045. A35K should ramp up some sales too, surprised EK ordered the A359 over it.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 4:13 pm

RMTAviation wrote:

I understand that EK is frustrated with the delays, but in all reality, what else is EK going to order to replace their 120 A380's and 130 777's? Sure, the A350-1000/A350-900, and 787's are able to replace some of the 77W routes, but considering the 779 is barely bigger than the 77W, Emirates are going need at least 115 of them to even have a chance of maintaining capacity, but in reality 200. Emirates themselves have said the A380 capacity is doing well for them.

The 77W came out during a different era. In 2004, most of the long haul routes were dominated by the 747, A340, A380 was about to come out, MD-11, etc. There used to be many large jets, such as the 744 and A380's by many airlines, that were retired at the start of the pandemic. All of these airlines, such as BA, Lufthansa, Qantas, KAL, Air China, etc, at the turn of this decade are going to need high capacity aircraft, especially for congested routes. We only have so much airspace, and United can't fly 7 150 seat planes from EWR-LHR forever. Consider the 779 as the replacement to the 77W, 744, 748, A380, rapid globalization and development into the 2040's, and it is not a large stretch in my opinion we can see 700 777-9's sold by 2045. A35K should ramp up some sales too, surprised EK ordered the A359 over it.


EK doesn't have to maintain capacity, they may be happier with downsizing, as the 787 and A350 open up new routes for competitors, allowing them to fly direct and reducing the need for hubs like DXB. They will take the 779, but they are pretty annoyed about the delays and I wouldn't be shocked if they downsize the order in favour of 787s, especially with the -10 having caability that addresses EK's concern over performance/capability. The A380 will soldier on, but re-engined (and stretched?) A350s and 787s would be very tempting.

Airlines will need high-capacity aircraft, but with the option to right-size around the A350 and 787, I don't think the 777X will be needed in large quantities. Remember that most airlines have already replaced their 744s, there are only a handful of 748s and even the A380 has largely been replaced, or at least had replacements designated already. Larger narrowbodies like the MAX 10 and A321neo will help with the congestion.

For the airlines you've mentioned: BA and LH have already ordered, but they've been happy to downsize to I'm not sure we'll see much in the way of topping up. KE and CA are likely to order, but they don't have the same congestion problems as a lot of Western airports. Bear in mind as well that only 200 or so of the 777X orders are considered secure by Boeing, and that may be without a potential EK cancellation. 500 -9s on top of that is a stretch, IMO.

If Airbus and Boeing do launch re-engined A350s and 787s, it's likely game over for the 777X.

On your point about the A35K: it doesn't offer a big improvement in unit costs over the A359, so for a lot of airlines the cheaper and more flexible option will be taken, as it has already done at dozens of airlines,
 
LDRA
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 4:39 pm

VV wrote:
FluidFlow wrote:
VV wrote:

The 777X has always been a distinct program from the 777-300ER/777-200LR/777F.

As for the A350neo (whatever it is or is not) with Ultrafan, it is NOT going to happen in the timeline you mentioned. It is just impossible.


You sure? Program announcement in 2024 and EIS in 2032 sounds realistic. 8 years is a realistic time line and should give RR about 6 to get the engine ready in 2030. This lines up well with the end of the exclusivety clause for the 350. So they can get the clause again for the new engine. Then Airbus has 2 years 2030-2032 to do the flight testing, etc.


Yes, I am sure.

The thing is that the core of an engine supplies the power for everything in the aircraft. There is a power requirement for take-off, climb and so on (including the electrical power etc.).
The core of an engine within similar technology can only provide so much power, with or without fan gear box.

There is no magic here. You have to have an engine core that is capable of delivering the required power. You cannot increase indefinitely the fuel efficiency of the core. A fan gear is just a source of energy loss. In addition it also weighs a lot.
It would be a miracle if the gear can provide 99.5% of efficiency. 0.5% of energy loss (that is transformed into heat) for a 80-100 klb engine is huge. The (oil) cooling system would be quite complex and heavy.

Basically I am saying that a geared turbofan is probably not a thing for such a big engine.
No, I sincerely do not believe in geared turbofan for application in long-haul widebody aircraft.
You do not need to believe what I said.


You are implying more than two engines due to GTF sizing limitation???
:spin: :spin: :spin: :spin:
 
VV
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 4:51 pm

RMTAviation wrote:
VV wrote:
I am wondering if the combined 777-9, 77-8 and 77-8F total deliveries would exceed 1,000 units during the first 20 years after EIS or even earlier.


I would say easily 700 777-9 and 300 777-8X in the first 20 years after deliveries begin is a reasonable target that will be achieved. Airports will be a lot more congested in the 2030's and 2040's, and there are gonna be some need of this size aircraft with the lack of 4 engine aircraft.


I would not make any bet on the proportion of 777-9, 777-8 and 777-8F deliveries during the first 20 years after EIS.
However, I would agree that 1,000 combined deliveries for the three versions is very likely during the above mentioned time period.

It is very-very important to keep in mind while the 777-9 will be the biggest aircraft in production when it will start its deliveries, it is still smaller than the 747-400, much smaller than the 747-8 Intercontinental and way-way smaller than the A380. In addition it is a two engined aircraft.

Boeing already delivered more than 800 777-300ER. Some of them will start to retire in the coming ten years and some of the retired 777-300ER will get replaced by slightly bigger aircraft that is the 777-9. Other will get replaced by smaller aircraft like the A350-900 or 787-10.

It is also important to note that bigger aircraft like the 747-8 or A380 will have to be replaced too. I do not think some routes on which those aircraft are operated today would suddenly be served by much smaller aircraft like the A350-900 or 787-10.

As for the freighter version, I tend to think it would be quite successful considering its rumoured specification.
Obviously we need to wait until Boeing reach firm configuration of the 777-8F (and 777-8) before we can discuss more detailed stuff.

In June 2020 I speculated on the specification of the 777-8F, but I cannot post the link in this site because it would be considered as a self promotion. Please send me a private message if you want to read it.
 
VV
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 5:08 pm

LDRA wrote:
VV wrote:
...

Basically I am saying that a geared turbofan is probably not a thing for such a big engine.
No, I sincerely do not believe in geared turbofan for application in long-haul widebody aircraft.
You do not need to believe what I said.


You are implying more than two engines due to GTF sizing limitation???
:spin: :spin: :spin: :spin:


Nope. I am saying that geared turbofan for long-haul widebody aircraft would not yield in good enough fuel efficiency improvement at overall aircraft level to justify a development.

In addition, the maintenance cost due to the heavy work done by the engine core would make it too expensive to operate. In other words, such engine for such application would result in limited time-on-wing of the engine core.

I am sorry to disappoint many Ultrafan fans here, but I am quite confident I am not mistaken. I am really sorry.
 
LDRA
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 5:14 pm

VV wrote:
LDRA wrote:
VV wrote:
...

Basically I am saying that a geared turbofan is probably not a thing for such a big engine.
No, I sincerely do not believe in geared turbofan for application in long-haul widebody aircraft.
You do not need to believe what I said.


You are implying more than two engines due to GTF sizing limitation???
:spin: :spin: :spin: :spin:


Nope. I am saying that geared turbofan for long-haul widebody aircraft would not yield in good enough fuel efficiency improvement at overall aircraft level to justify a development.

In addition, the maintenance cost due to the heavy work done by the engine core would make it too expensive to operate. In other words, such engine for such application would result in limited time-on-wing of the engine core.

I am sorry to disappoint many Ultrafan fans here, but I am quite confident I am not mistaken. I am really sorry.


And all this due to engine sizing? Because 30000lb class GTF works wonder already, today
 
accentra
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 5:30 pm

RR knows very well what it is doing with Ultrafan. After all, it does have decades of experience developing aeroengines! ;-) Statements up thread, given as 'facts', about supposed 'limitations' with Ultrafan are simply inaccurate. Ultrafan, as RR have stated on numerous occasions, will be a scalable architecture appropriate for a wide range of aircraft types, from NBs to WBs. It's at the core (pun, intended) of RR's future strategy after all, so they will be of course in talks with both A and B on possible platform applications, including WB ones. I fear any thinking to the contrary is, well, just wishful thinking!
 
VV
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 5:38 pm

LDRA wrote:
VV wrote:
LDRA wrote:

You are implying more than two engines due to GTF sizing limitation???
:spin: :spin: :spin: :spin:


Nope. I am saying that geared turbofan for long-haul widebody aircraft would not yield in good enough fuel efficiency improvement at overall aircraft level to justify a development.

In addition, the maintenance cost due to the heavy work done by the engine core would make it too expensive to operate. In other words, such engine for such application would result in limited time-on-wing of the engine core.

I am sorry to disappoint many Ultrafan fans here, but I am quite confident I am not mistaken. I am really sorry.


And all this due to engine sizing? Because 30000lb class GTF works wonder already, today


My comment says, "I am saying that geared turbofan for long-haul widebody aircraft would not yield in good enough fuel efficiency improvement at overall aircraft level to justify a development."

It is somehow related to the thrust requirement (and thus engine size).
In my opinion, even a 30 klb GTF engine does not have enough EGT margin. Unfortunately I do not have any data on PW1100G-JM in-service data, but I am convinced the durability of its engine core is not as good as more conventional engine like the CFM Leap engines.

Although this discussion is interesting, I am afraid some moderators would consider it as a little bit off topic.

So I would close my comment on this engine topic by insisting that I just do not see any application of GTF on long-haul widebody aircraft in the near-medium term.
I can be wrong, but that my opinion.

It means that IF the GE9X does what it is intended to do then the 777X would not have any credible contender during the next fifteen years or so.

I do not have any input concerning the performance or the durability of the GE9X. This time I have to say that "no news" is not necessarily "good news".
 
DartHerald
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:09 pm

VV wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:
VV wrote:

It is very-very important to keep in mind while the 777-9 will be the biggest aircraft in production when it will start its deliveries, it is still smaller than the 747-400, much smaller than the 747-8 Intercontinental and way-way smaller than the A380. In addition it is a two engined aircraft.

Boeing already delivered more than 800 777-300ER. Some of them will start to retire in the coming ten years and some of the retired 777-300ER will get replaced by slightly bigger aircraft that is the 777-9. Other will get replaced by smaller aircraft like the A350-900 or 787-10.

It is also important to note that bigger aircraft like the 747-8 or A380 will have to be replaced too. I do not think some routes on which those aircraft are operated today would suddenly be served by much smaller aircraft like the A350-900 or 787-10..


The current thinking seems to be that the A380 was too big for most carriers and that most routes are better served by frequency rather than capacity. If that continues to be the case, will there really be a market for a plane of greater capacity than the 777W? And if not, might not the A350-1000 (or possibly the -1100) be expected to take around half the share of that market?
 
VV
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 27, 2022 12:25 pm

DartHerald wrote:
VV wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:


The current thinking seems to be that the A380 was too big for most carriers and that most routes are better served by frequency rather than capacity. If that continues to be the case, will there really be a market for a plane of greater capacity than the 777W? And if not, might not the A350-1000 (or possibly the -1100) be expected to take around half the share of that market?


Let us first address the question about frequency vs capacity.

Let's take an example of an airline that flies a 777-300ER from its hub in Europe To Beijing (and another flight in the opposite direction).
Adding frequency means a jump of offered seat by more than 70% (if it takes a smaller widebody than the 777-300ER) or even double the capacity if it take the same aircraft.

Let us assume the volume of travel on the route increases by about 4% per year. It would be silly to increase the frequency by more than 70% in one go. It is very likely the added frequency would not have the required passenger count to make it profitable.

Basically, you have just added a slot with another aircraft (it's a hell lot of investment) for a result that is not good.

Let us take the same airline with its 777-300ER. At one point the average load factor would increase beyond 82% and then you know that there is some "spill" there. So you remove the 777-300ER and replace it by the 777-9 which is only about 10% bigger than the 777-300ER.

There are two benefits in doing so.
First, the old 777-300ER might go to retirement, or sold to be converted to freighter or simply allocated to a less dense route that is currently served by a smaller aircraft than the 777-300ER.
Second, there is no additional slot. The load factor might drop a little bit or maybe there is no drop at all if you do a clever revenue management, but you do not invest for another aircraft on that route.

The fantasy about frequency increase (vs capacity) on long haul routes is just a fantasy. The reality is much more complex.

Let us NEVER forget that the capacity increase from the 777-300ER to the 777-9 is not so big. And let us NEVER forget that the 777-9 is smaller than the 747-400, much smaller than the 747-8 Intercontinental and it is way-way smaller than the behemoth A380.

The cabin floor area difference between the 777-9 and A380 is bigger than 40%.

So yes, I insist that there is a market for an aircraft bigger than the 777-300ER. The 777-9 is just a natural growth solution for the 777-300ER.
 
Aseem747
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 27, 2022 1:34 pm

DartHerald wrote:
VV wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:


The current thinking seems to be that the A380 was too big for most carriers and that most routes are better served by frequency rather than capacity. If that continues to be the case, will there really be a market for a plane of greater capacity than the 777W? And if not, might not the A350-1000 (or possibly the -1100) be expected to take around half the share of that market?

The current thinking is that the A380 was too big for most carriers, not that 777-300ER is so big that if a plane with 15 more seats is made it would become an aircraft with barely any market.

If I'm not wrong, the A350-1000 has less orders than it did in 2015. How can such an aircraft realistically be expected to take half the share of the large sized aircraft market? It's only my opinion but I believe an A350 stretch will easily surpass the sales of A35K in under 10 years if it's introduced since the current A35K is pretty much 773 length wise but it's cabin width holds it's capacity back by enough to make the 777-9 the closest direct successor of 77W that exists unless it's someone like JAL with 9 abreast in 77W.

Some say that the A350-1000 has a brighter future than 777-9 because it's small size will be an advantage. However when you consider that the majority of future large wide body orders will be coming from airlines replacing 777-300ER and look at the airlines who make up most of 77W's order book, they clearly are from airlines who wouldn't be repulsed by an idea of having a few more seats in their 77W.
 
accentra
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 27, 2022 1:42 pm

I do think it is dangerous to assume that the ME3, and particularly EK, are wedded to having the largest WB available. The world is potentially heading for the biggest economic shock in decades, on the back of the Russian situation, with a possibly prolonged global recession, with air travel doing its usual thing of collapsing during that period. It is not at all impossible that the business model of the ME3, and EK particularly, will have to evolve to adapt to that new reality. There will be zero point flying shiny new large capacity WBs when you can't fill them. Yes, travel will eventually recover but, by that time, will the 777X tech still be relevant and efficient? Guess it all depends on how long the global economy is down. But many are predicting that this is going to be one humdinger of a global recession that will last years.
 
Capricorn
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 27, 2022 3:16 pm

VV wrote:
DartHerald wrote:
VV wrote:


The current thinking seems to be that the A380 was too big for most carriers and that most routes are better served by frequency rather than capacity. If that continues to be the case, will there really be a market for a plane of greater capacity than the 777W? And if not, might not the A350-1000 (or possibly the -1100) be expected to take around half the share of that market?


Let us first address the question about frequency vs capacity.

Let's take an example of an airline that flies a 777-300ER from its hub in Europe To Beijing (and another flight in the opposite direction).
Adding frequency means a jump of offered seat by more than 70% (if it takes a smaller widebody than the 777-300ER) or even double the capacity if it take the same aircraft.

Let us assume the volume of travel on the route increases by about 4% per year. It would be silly to increase the frequency by more than 70% in one go. It is very likely the added frequency would not have the required passenger count to make it profitable.

Basically, you have just added a slot with another aircraft (it's a hell lot of investment) for a result that is not good.

Let us take the same airline with its 777-300ER. At one point the average load factor would increase beyond 82% and then you know that there is some "spill" there. So you remove the 777-300ER and replace it by the 777-9 which is only about 10% bigger than the 777-300ER.

There are two benefits in doing so.
First, the old 777-300ER might go to retirement, or sold to be converted to freighter or simply allocated to a less dense route that is currently served by a smaller aircraft than the 777-300ER.
Second, there is no additional slot. The load factor might drop a little bit or maybe there is no drop at all if you do a clever revenue management, but you do not invest for another aircraft on that route.

The fantasy about frequency increase (vs capacity) on long haul routes is just a fantasy. The reality is much more complex.

Let us NEVER forget that the capacity increase from the 777-300ER to the 777-9 is not so big. And let us NEVER forget that the 777-9 is smaller than the 747-400, much smaller than the 747-8 Intercontinental and it is way-way smaller than the behemoth A380.

The cabin floor area difference between the 777-9 and A380 is bigger than 40%.

So yes, I insist that there is a market for an aircraft bigger than the 777-300ER. The 777-9 is just a natural growth solution for the 777-300ER.


I agree with your logic, however, what you might be missing is that some / many carriers now operate more than one hub. Your argument makes perfect sense, as long as an airline only has one, (or maybe two) hubs. But may airlines, or rather airlines groups, today have more than one hub.

Lets take LHG as example. Before the pandemic, afaik, KIX was doing well. Instead of upgauging LH mainline material, LHG opted to serve the same destination from ZRH instead, thereby not only opening a new market, but also strengthening the overall group and another hub. From the perspective of LHG, it is irrelevant if a connecting passenger uses FRA, MUC, ZRH or VIE. Revenue still stays with LHG. Multi-Hub strategy only works with efficient smaller planes and before the B787 or A359/A339 was hardly viable for larger airlines. So I think we have not seen the full effects of this strategy yet and I also think there will be further consolidation within the aviation industry.

E.g. before the pandemic, I saw the that Chinese carriers were also strengthening their secondary hubs, rather than focusing exclusively on the core hubs, in a similar way as European and US carriers approached growth perspectives during the last decade.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think the 777X is doomed and it will sell, just that planes of the size of a 777X have become a niche market. General developments in the aviation sector, consolidation and strengthening of secondary hubs, work against larger planes IMO.
 
VV
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 28, 2022 12:01 pm

accentra wrote:
I do think it is dangerous to assume that the ME3, and particularly EK, are wedded to having the largest WB available. The world is potentially heading for the biggest economic shock in decades, on the back of the Russian situation, with a possibly prolonged global recession, with air travel doing its usual thing of collapsing during that period. It is not at all impossible that the business model of the ME3, and EK particularly, will have to evolve to adapt to that new reality. There will be zero point flying shiny new large capacity WBs when you can't fill them. Yes, travel will eventually recover but, by that time, will the 777X tech still be relevant and efficient? Guess it all depends on how long the global economy is down. But many are predicting that this is going to be one humdinger of a global recession that will last years.


Dangerous? What are the risks?

Well, those airlines do not have domestic market.
Dubai tries to develop its tourism, so I guess they need to transport as many passengers as possible who transit in Dubai.
I do not understand your statement about those middle eastern airlines having much smaller aircraft.
Their workforce is mainly foreigners, so they absolutely need to offer cheap transport to those workers' home country. THe only way to achieve it is by using big aircraft.
 
B777LRF
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 28, 2022 12:38 pm

VV wrote:
Their workforce is mainly foreigners, so they absolutely need to offer cheap transport to those workers' home country. The only way to achieve it is by using big aircraft.


And yet EK only saw fit to configure a minute portion of their A380 fleet with 600+ seats, catering for that market and European markets with lower demand for J class and zero demand for F class seating. Do keep in mind, that low-income expat workers (primarily from the Sub-Continent and Asia) only get one flight home every year, or even every second year. Around 90% of Dubai’s population of 3.1 million are expats, the vast majority of the low-income variety. Call it 2.5 million, taking 0,75 trips per year. That’s 2.2 million seats, which equates to 15 flights a day using a 400 seat A350K, or 12 flights a day using a 500 seat -9. In other words, a ridiculously small proportion of EK’s daily production of around 400 flights per day. Which explains why they bothered to kit out so few A380s for that market.

So the question is what makes more economical sense and provides the most flexible platform; 400 seats, or 500 seats in an airframe which is 30 tons heavier. Add to that equation that 5-7 years after the -9 EIS, the A350 will probably be available with SuperFan engines.

The point is, in my opinion Boeing will be extremely lucky if deliveries of the -9 even matches that of the A380. Add freighters to the mix and we’re looking at, what, 300-400 at most? Had it meet the original EIS of 2020 the outlook would be more rosy, but as the world is today and in the foreseeable future it’s anything but.

The future, at least as far as the potential for the -9 goes, is not “as big as possible” but rather “as flexible as possible”.
 
Scotron12
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 28, 2022 2:42 pm

Case in point would be DXB-MNL. EK uses 385 seat B777ERs 3x daily on the route. Plus there are service from PR and the "cattle car" 5J.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 29, 2022 3:27 am

The biggest problem with updated older generation aircraft like B777X or A330neo. Is the fact that they are getting less and less attractive once we are getting closer to 2030.
First their technology are getting older. And secondly, many aircrafts they are trying to replace are still young. Most of A330-300 and B777-300ER were built between 2010-2019.
By the time the replacement cycle kicks in, it would be at least in 2030-2040.

Are we sure that B777X and A330-900neo would be deemed efficient enough for 2030-2040 era?
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 29, 2022 4:21 am

UA857 wrote:
Potential 777X customers:

777-9:
United - 22
American- 20
Qantas - 12
KLM - 16
EVA Air - 16
Air China - 20
China Eastern - 20
China Southern - 20
Korean Air - 20
Air Canada - 12
Air India - 16
Turkish Airlines - 12
Ethiopian Airlines - 10
Saudia - 12
Egyptair - 6
Bambo Airways - 12
Thai Airways - 12
Air New Zealand - 8

777-8F:
FedEx - 25
DHL - 20
Lufthansa Cargo - 10
Emirates SkyCargo - 50
Turkish Airlines Cargo - 8
Singapore Airlines Cargo - 7


United have A350 on order, they could easily swapped the -900 for a larger -1000 if they needed to replace B777-300ER.
It's not like they are soo keen on large aircraft to begin with. They retire their B747-400 in 2017. Convert their A350-1000 order to the smaller -900.

American plans to retire their B777-200ER with B787 since many of them are getting pretty old. This would meant that their B777-300ER would need to be phased out in around 2033-2040s. Bit too late for B777X to steep in.

Qantas planned to operate project sunrise using A350-1000ULR. If they need large aircraft, they would definitely choose A350-1000 instead of B777-9X.
With project sunrise being planned for the future. Demand would be split between the nonstop direct flight to NYC/London and the transit flights (with stop over in Dubai, Perth, Singapore or Los Angeles). Which would eliminate the need for larger aircraft like A380 or B777-9X.

Order from Mainland China wouldn't be likely since the problems CCP had with the US government in recent years.

Air India needing B777X is a bit of a stretch. Being cash strapped is already a big reason to suspect they won't need aircraft the size of B777X.

Ethiopian operate A350-900. They only operate 6 B777-200LR and 4 B777-300ER. They could swapped them out for HGW A350-900 and A350-1000 to streamline their future operations.

Thai is in the same situation as cash strapped Air India.

Air New Zealand already announce that they are planning to replace all B777 with B787-10. They ae working with Boeing to increase the capability of this plane.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 29, 2022 5:03 am

ewt340 wrote:
Air India needing B777X is a bit of a stretch. Being cash strapped is already a big reason to suspect they won't need aircraft the size of B777X.


Air India is hardly cash strapped. It’s owned by the Tata Group. That said, I don’t see the 777X at the airline.
 
ewt340
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:01 am

jbs2886 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Air India needing B777X is a bit of a stretch. Being cash strapped is already a big reason to suspect they won't need aircraft the size of B777X.


Air India is hardly cash strapped. It’s owned by the Tata Group. That said, I don’t see the 777X at the airline.


Tata have lots of money. Air India don't. I don't think Tata would be stupid enough to pump endless money into a business that keep losing money. They don't have Indian Government money like they used to. They are more likely to put Air India on a strict diet and focusing on profitability before acquiring any new planes. They got more than 2 dozens of A320neo and B787-8. Might want to utilizing those brand new planes before adding B777X.

Spending money on large aircraft like B777X seems like a suicide at this point. Buying/leasing B787-9/-10 sounds more logical if they needed the capacity. It's not like their load factor is close to 100% before the pandemic.
 
astuteman
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 29, 2022 11:27 am

VV wrote:
The fantasy about frequency increase (vs capacity) on long haul routes is just a fantasy. The reality is much more complex.

Let us NEVER forget that the capacity increase from the 777-300ER to the 777-9 is not so big. And let us NEVER forget that the 777-9 is smaller than the 747-400, much smaller than the 747-8 Intercontinental and it is way-way smaller than the behemoth A380.

The cabin floor area difference between the 777-9 and A380 is bigger than 40%.

So yes, I insist that there is a market for an aircraft bigger than the 777-300ER. The 777-9 is just a natural growth solution for the 777-300ER.


I love your "insistence".
"I Insist!!! :box: :box: :box: :box:
I do agree with your right to insist on an opinion though ... :)

Long-haul frequency?
I heard frequency argued "frequently" as a de-merit for the A380, but in truth I tend to agree with you that it's overblown for long-haul.
What isn't overblown though, in my opinion, is fragmentation, which is a completely different thing, and where the main threat to the bigger aircraft really lies
We have had a considerable number of threads pointing out the routes that the 787 has opened up that weren't viable until the operating economics and range in a smaller aircraft made it so.
As soon as that happens, the smaller aircraft typically becomes the preferred option - to a point

Finally, as a point of order, the 777-9 is NOT smaller than a 744 - it's pretty much exactly the same capacity and carries a heavier payload.
The 77W is only 10% less capacious than a 744 and has a much better range/payload curve.

As it is, you'll be lucky if there's a handful of 744 left in passenger service
The 777-9 will indeed be smaller than the 748i, but as far as I can tell there is the grand total of 36 x 748i frames in airline fleets at the moment - 19 for LH, 10 for KE and 7 for Air China.
I'm not sure how many of those are currently operational.
A380?
251 were delivered, of which at least 10 for AF and 14 for LH have already been retired.
How many of the rest are currently active, and/or likely to return to service?
150? I don't know.
But I suspect that by the time the 777-9 comes along in numbers most of these will have already been superseded by 787's or A350's

Yes, there IS a market for a plane bigger than the 77W, just as there was a market for the A380.
The question that's fundamentally being asked is "how big is that market and will it allow enough room to make the 777-9 successful?"

Rgds
 
DartHerald
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 29, 2022 11:48 am

ewt340 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
ewt340 wrote:
Spending money on large aircraft like B777X seems like a suicide at this point. Buying/leasing B787-9/-10 sounds more logical if they needed the capacity. It's not like their load factor is close to 100% before the pandemic.


Thing is, though, aircraft are long lead items. They have to be thinking years ahead, even if ordered now it will be years before they receive them. That's not to say a 777X order is a certainty, of course, Tata are already close to Airbus and I don't think the A350 can be ruled out of contention at this time.
 
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HKAusFlyer
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 29, 2022 12:52 pm

Don't think it is mentioned anywhere on A.net or news reports, but Boeing further removed 29 777Xs from the firm order backlog & moved them into the ASC 606 bucket, making the firm order 224 at end-Mar 22 instead of 253 at end-2021. This compares to the 334 777Xs on contract.

P.40 "Accounting Quantity" of Boeing's 10-Q
https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/do ... bc35a0.pdf

Boeing also increased the 777X's accounting quantity from 350 to 400.
 
JonesNL
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:28 pm

HKAusFlyer wrote:
Don't think it is mentioned anywhere on A.net or news reports, but Boeing further removed 29 777Xs from the firm order backlog & moved them into the ASC 606 bucket, making the firm order 224 at end-Mar 22 instead of 253 at end-2021. This compares to the 334 777Xs on contract.

P.40 "Accounting Quantity" of Boeing's 10-Q
https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/do ... bc35a0.pdf

Boeing also increased the 777X's accounting quantity from 350 to 400.


Orders going down, breakeven point going up; is this what they call a double whammy...
 
FluidFlow
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 29, 2022 2:43 pm

JonesNL wrote:
HKAusFlyer wrote:
Don't think it is mentioned anywhere on A.net or news reports, but Boeing further removed 29 777Xs from the firm order backlog & moved them into the ASC 606 bucket, making the firm order 224 at end-Mar 22 instead of 253 at end-2021. This compares to the 334 777Xs on contract.

P.40 "Accounting Quantity" of Boeing's 10-Q
https://s2.q4cdn.com/661678649/files/do ... bc35a0.pdf

Boeing also increased the 777X's accounting quantity from 350 to 400.


Orders going down, breakeven point going up; is this what they call a double whammy...


The news came relatively short noticed regarding Q1. So they probably just added to the accounting block first. If long term the outlook starts to look worse, they have to adjust the block down again and then write off some losses.
By extending the block, the dicision is pushed out but it all depends on future sales. At least Boeing could avoid another news this quarter by quietly hiding the costs in the accounting block. This might bite back later.
 
DartHerald
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun May 01, 2022 9:49 am

With the imminent announcement by QF of an A350-1000 I would think that they are now a very unlikely prospect for the 777X.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Boeing 777X Sales Campaign Thread - 2022

Sun May 01, 2022 10:26 am

DartHerald wrote:
With the imminent announcement by QF of an A350-1000 I would think that they are now a very unlikely prospect for the 777X.


They have been an unlikely 777X customer since they chose the A350-1000 2.5 years ago I doubt they ever considered both the A350 and 77X in the fleet.

No doubt we will have threads on why didn’t QF order the 777 pop up again.

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