XNA's new marketing is very Breeze-esque, lol

https://talkbusiness.net/2022/01/xna-re ... nitiative/

NWA Council are the ones pitting up billboards in Seattle. I can very much see XNA/Seattle coming.

NWA Council is 3rd Gen Walmart money with support from the other Big 2.

https://simpleflying.com/breeze-airways-plans/
"Longer routes mean the variable cost advantage of the Airbus jets will be crucial. Domestically, perhaps we’ll see the likes of Louisville to San Diego, San Francisco, Portland, and Seattle, Huntsville-Los Angeles, or Columbus to San Diego and Portland. All are good-sized unserved markets even before demand rises from non-stop service and lower fares."

Bluegrass60 wrote:

https://simpleflying.com/breeze-airways-plans/
"Longer routes mean the variable cost advantage of the Airbus jets will be crucial. Domestically, perhaps we’ll see the likes of Louisville to San Diego, San Francisco, Portland, and Seattle, Huntsville-Los Angeles, or Columbus to San Diego and Portland. All are good-sized unserved markets even before demand rises from non-stop service and lower fares."

Heads up, simpleflying has persistent cookies, I always open up in an incognito tab.

I find it facinating they are going up to 70 cities in three years. With 70 aircraft and less than daily frequencies, they will connect the dots.

The A220 heavy growth plan implies not a huge amount of growth left with E-jets that couldn't be upgauged to an A220. I'd bet on the path to 80 A220, it will be accompanied with little added E-jets.

Lightsaber

WaywardMemphian wrote:

XNA's new marketing is very Breeze-esque, lol

https://talkbusiness.net/2022/01/xna-re ... nitiative/

NWA Council are the ones pitting up billboards in Seattle. I can very much see XNA/Seattle coming.

NWA Council is 3rd Gen Walmart money with support from the other Big 2.

Bluegrass60 wrote:

https://simpleflying.com/breeze-airways-plans/
"Longer routes mean the variable cost advantage of the Airbus jets will be crucial. Domestically, perhaps we’ll see the likes of Louisville to San Diego, San Francisco, Portland, and Seattle, Huntsville-Los Angeles, or Columbus to San Diego and Portland. All are good-sized unserved markets even before demand rises from non-stop service and lower fares."

Some of the possible MX adds could be added by other airlines such as XNA-SEA by AS, SDF-SFO by UA, SDF-SEA by DL, CMH-SAN by WN, and CMH-PDX by AS.

AS would also have AA's FF base in Northwest Arkansas to support XNA-SEA nonstop service on AS, and AS would also have AA's FF base in Central Ohio to support CMH-PDX nonstop service.

XNA-SEA is also within the range of E-175 regional jets, and AS had operated E-175 regional jets on a few routes longer than XNA-SEA such as SEA-DAL/MKE and PDX-AUS.

There would also be some connecting opportunities to other destinations in Washington State, Oregon, British Columbia, and Alaska from XNA through SEA if AS adds XNA-SEA nonstop service, and Walmart also operates stores in Washington State, Oregon, British Columbia, and Alaska.

UA would also have its FF bases in both the San Francisco Bay Area and Greater Louisville markets to support SDF-SFO nonstop service, and there would be connecting opportunities to other destinations in California, Hawaii, Asia, Australia, New Zealand, and Tahiti through SFO from SDF on UA if UA adds SDF-SFO nonstop service.

UA would also be able to use 126-seat A319 or 737-700 planes to operate SDF-SFO nonstop service, similar in capacity to the 126-seat A220-300's that MX is planning on operating.

DL would have its FF bases in both the Greater Louisville and Greater Seattle to support markets to support SDF-SEA nonstop service, and DL already has both the A220-100 and A220-300 variants in its fleet. DL would also be able to offer connections to some other destinations in Alaska, Washington State, Oregon, British Columbia, and Asia from SDF through SEA if it adds SDF-SEA nonstop service.

What advantages would MX have over AS, DL, and UA on adds such as XNA-SEA, SDF-SFO, and SDF-SEA?

I agree that MX has opportunities to add routes such as HSV-LAX and SDF-SAN/PDX that are unlikely to be served nonstop by other airlines.

What advantages would MX have over AS, DL, and UA on adds such as XNA-SEA, SDF-SFO, and SDF-SEA?
.

Delta doesn't even fly SLC from XNA.


Actually flying it

UA also flew XNA-SFO on an E-jet at over $400 R/T pre covid. It isn't being flown now. Covid has XNA refocused on growing up the leasure travel. There's plenty of money here to pay a $400 for Breeze's first class.vs. economy on UA, AA or AS.

razorbackfan wrote:

Speaking of flying from Bentonville, I just flew Breeze for the first time this past weekend from XNA to TPA and back and it was great.

I'm of course not asking for a trip report (because that's a different forum), but just quickly: What was great? Was it mostly just the convenience? Were they friendly, upbeat, etc.? Was the in-airport experience acceptable? Most of the time, when staff make one feel a little special or at least cared-about or appreciated, that's worth a lot more than many other things.

I was happy to see your comment, and just a bit curious...

jplatts wrote:

Some of the possible MX adds could be added by other airlines such as XNA-SEA by AS, SDF-SFO by UA, SDF-SEA by DL, CMH-SAN by WN, and CMH-PDX by AS.

Those routes could be added in theory, but are not operated by anybody at this time. Most likely for good reasons such as insufficient passenger counts between the markets.

Breeze could probably operate some of those routes profitably, given their low costs and the right size (A220) equipment for the route. I just don't see AS, UA, DL, or WN trying to stomp on Breeze for a route that they don't operate. That would be a good formula for them to bleed cash, which they really can't afford to do in 2022.

Should Breeze start to compete on routes currently operated by AS, UA, DL, WN, or AA then I can certainly see a competitive response to defend their turf.

David

wjcandee wrote:

razorbackfan wrote:

Speaking of flying from Bentonville, I just flew Breeze for the first time this past weekend from XNA to TPA and back and it was great.

I'm of course not asking for a trip report (because that's a different forum), but just quickly: What was great? Was it mostly just the convenience? Were they friendly, upbeat, etc.? Was the in-airport experience acceptable? Most of the time, when staff make one feel a little special or at least cared-about or appreciated, that's worth a lot more than many other things.

I was happy to see your comment, and just a bit curious...

I think it comes down to a couple of things. Yes, it was more convenient, but it just seemed simpler then AA. For example the boarding and unboarding takes about 1/3 the time of AA, since most people checked a bag (this is due to charging for carry ons), which is the same I've experienced on Frontier. I absolutely cannot stand the 5 minute pitch from the flight attendants for the credit card on AA, drives me crazy, we didn't have that. Also, one small touch I liked was the pilot standing up in the front of the cabin doing his pre-flight announcement. It was like this on both flights, and it adds a touch of personality to the flight besides the guy behind the door like the Wizard of Oz. I know it wasn't major, but it was a nice little touch.

Here's an update from TPA spotter & YouTuber, Captain Steve Markovich on Breeze's first A220, N203BZ (he discusses it at the 4:35 mark). As most of you know this A220 was delivered from BFM to TPA on December 17, 2021. Since then it has been parked over at a remote stand near the FedEx air cargo ops located north of TPA's runway 10/28. The latest word from Steve is that Breeze's A220 ops will not begin until May of this year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D2VR7ItrV9U

Just booked Breeze again, 2nd time, this time TPA-SDF-TPA for the Tampa Bay Lightning outdoor game in Nashville. Going to hit up Mammoth Cave National Park as well.

During booking they made it super easy to use your 'Breeze Dollars' and applied it right at check out. So far both times, the first being inaugural, the booking process all the way to payment process is the cleanest of airlines out there.

diverdave wrote:

jplatts wrote:

Some of the possible MX adds could be added by other airlines such as XNA-SEA by AS, SDF-SFO by UA, SDF-SEA by DL, CMH-SAN by WN, and CMH-PDX by AS.

Those routes could be added in theory, but are not operated by anybody at this time. Most likely for good reasons such as insufficient passenger counts between the markets.

Breeze could probably operate some of those routes profitably, given their low costs and the right size (A220) equipment for the route. I just don't see AS, UA, DL, or WN trying to stomp on Breeze for a route that they don't operate. That would be a good formula for them to bleed cash, which they really can't afford to do in 2022.

Should Breeze start to compete on routes currently operated by AS, UA, DL, WN, or AA then I can certainly see a competitive response to defend their turf.

David

Insufficient passenger counts at what frequency? I expect Breeze to continue adjusting weekly frequency based on demand. If demand is say only 90 seats per day, Breeze should be profitable at 4x/week, assuming the stimulate the market. The A220 will fly with a low cost per flight. The advantage the network airlines have is feed. However, with coronavirus, I suspect people are avoiding connections.

Lightsaber

razorbackfan wrote:

wjcandee wrote:

razorbackfan wrote:

Speaking of flying from Bentonville, I just flew Breeze for the first time this past weekend from XNA to TPA and back and it was great.

I'm of course not asking for a trip report (because that's a different forum), but just quickly: What was great? Was it mostly just the convenience? Were they friendly, upbeat, etc.? Was the in-airport experience acceptable? Most of the time, when staff make one feel a little special or at least cared-about or appreciated, that's worth a lot more than many other things.

I was happy to see your comment, and just a bit curious...

I think it comes down to a couple of things. Yes, it was more convenient, but it just seemed simpler then AA. For example the boarding and unboarding takes about 1/3 the time of AA, since most people checked a bag (this is due to charging for carry ons), which is the same I've experienced on Frontier. I absolutely cannot stand the 5 minute pitch from the flight attendants for the credit card on AA, drives me crazy, we didn't have that. Also, one small touch I liked was the pilot standing up in the front of the cabin doing his pre-flight announcement. It was like this on both flights, and it adds a touch of personality to the flight besides the guy behind the door like the Wizard of Oz. I know it wasn't major, but it was a nice little touch.

Cool. Thanks! Agree 100-percent. I love the idea of charging for carry-ons and not for checked bags. It's the correct priority, frankly. Little stuff makes a difference, and fun to see what they have done differently.

razorbackfan wrote:

wjcandee wrote:

razorbackfan wrote:

Speaking of flying from Bentonville, I just flew Breeze for the first time this past weekend from XNA to TPA and back and it was great.

I'm of course not asking for a trip report (because that's a different forum), but just quickly: What was great? Was it mostly just the convenience? Were they friendly, upbeat, etc.? Was the in-airport experience acceptable? Most of the time, when staff make one feel a little special or at least cared-about or appreciated, that's worth a lot more than many other things.

I was happy to see your comment, and just a bit curious...

I think it comes down to a couple of things. Yes, it was more convenient, but it just seemed simpler then AA. For example the boarding and unboarding takes about 1/3 the time of AA, since most people checked a bag (this is due to charging for carry ons), which is the same I've experienced on Frontier. I absolutely cannot stand the 5 minute pitch from the flight attendants for the credit card on AA, drives me crazy, we didn't have that. Also, one small touch I liked was the pilot standing up in the front of the cabin doing his pre-flight announcement. It was like this on both flights, and it adds a touch of personality to the flight besides the guy behind the door like the Wizard of Oz. I know it wasn't major, but it was a nice little touch.

Very much agreed on the pre-flight announcement. I've heard positive comments about that from non-aviation fan folks I've recommended Breeze to, including a very anxious flyer friend who said that made her feel a bit at ease.

I want to say B6 used to do that? But can't recall it happening in the recent past.

luv2cattlecall wrote:

razorbackfan wrote:

wjcandee wrote:

I'm of course not asking for a trip report (because that's a different forum), but just quickly: What was great? Was it mostly just the convenience? Were they friendly, upbeat, etc.? Was the in-airport experience acceptable? Most of the time, when staff make one feel a little special or at least cared-about or appreciated, that's worth a lot more than many other things.

I was happy to see your comment, and just a bit curious...

I think it comes down to a couple of things. Yes, it was more convenient, but it just seemed simpler then AA. For example the boarding and unboarding takes about 1/3 the time of AA, since most people checked a bag (this is due to charging for carry ons), which is the same I've experienced on Frontier. I absolutely cannot stand the 5 minute pitch from the flight attendants for the credit card on AA, drives me crazy, we didn't have that. Also, one small touch I liked was the pilot standing up in the front of the cabin doing his pre-flight announcement. It was like this on both flights, and it adds a touch of personality to the flight besides the guy behind the door like the Wizard of Oz. I know it wasn't major, but it was a nice little touch.

Very much agreed on the pre-flight announcement. I've heard positive comments about that from non-aviation fan folks I've recommended Breeze to, including a very anxious flyer friend who said that made her feel a bit at ease.

I want to say B6 used to do that? But can't recall it happening in the recent past.

B6 were originally doing these types of announcements. It must be a Neeleman thing.

However, people go off script, and these days they end up embarrassing themselves and, when the video pops up on YouTube, their employer as well.

lightsaber wrote:

diverdave wrote:

jplatts wrote:

Some of the possible MX adds could be added by other airlines such as XNA-SEA by AS, SDF-SFO by UA, SDF-SEA by DL, CMH-SAN by WN, and CMH-PDX by AS.

Those routes could be added in theory, but are not operated by anybody at this time. Most likely for good reasons such as insufficient passenger counts between the markets.

Breeze could probably operate some of those routes profitably, given their low costs and the right size (A220) equipment for the route. I just don't see AS, UA, DL, or WN trying to stomp on Breeze for a route that they don't operate. That would be a good formula for them to bleed cash, which they really can't afford to do in 2022.

Should Breeze start to compete on routes currently operated by AS, UA, DL, WN, or AA then I can certainly see a competitive response to defend their turf.

David

Insufficient passenger counts at what frequency? I expect Breeze to continue adjusting weekly frequency based on demand. If demand is say only 90 seats per day, Breeze should be profitable at 4x/week, assuming the stimulate the market. The A220 will fly with a low cost per flight. The advantage the network airlines have is feed. However, with coronavirus, I suspect people are avoiding connections.

Lightsaber

I was responding to the jplatts quoted post that suggested some of these routes could be added by AS, DL, WN, or UA. I meant to say that the passenger counts likely are insufficient for those airlines.

As you say, Breeze operates at lower frequencies with lower costs and smaller aircraft. Absolutely Breeze can make routes work where the legacy carriers would lose money.

David

"...passenger counts likely are insufficient for those airlines." If those airlines do nothing to stimulate the market....the passenger counts remain the same or even decrease. Not sure Breeze can have the "Southwest Effect" on a route (not sure Southwest has a Southwest effect on its own routes these days)....that 'effect' was very large increases in traffic primarily because of low fares. Breeze is still small so any "effect" it would have is small...but at the margins can take away passengers from the legacy+WN options. There are many 3-4 hour routes in the Continental US that Breeze could select to operate its A220's and operate them profitably.

Breeze has extended out their booking window to Sept it seems. Fares in the extension are 'rack rate", meaning they are high. I suspect they'll go on sale soon.

XNA keeps SAT and MSY at 2x weekly and Tampa goes to 3x from 4x at the start of the extension.

I see they have 220s on some Charleston and Tampa routes now. Curious if that means they need new routes for the planes currently running those routes or if it’s just filling in more.

Bluegrass60 wrote:

"...passenger counts likely are insufficient for those airlines." If those airlines do nothing to stimulate the market....the passenger counts remain the same or even decrease. Not sure Breeze can have the "Southwest Effect" on a route (not sure Southwest has a Southwest effect on its own routes these days)....that 'effect' was very large increases in traffic primarily because of low fares. Breeze is still small so any "effect" it would have is small...but at the margins can take away passengers from the legacy+WN options. There are many 3-4 hour routes in the Continental US that Breeze could select to operate its A220's and operate them profitably.

Direct flights always stimulate demand. The same with higher frequency or lower fares: Link is pdf:
https://www.mcgill.ca/iasl/files/iasl/a ... cs_psd.pdf
The S-curve relationship between frequency, along one axis, and unit
revenue, along the other, encourages airlines to offer relatively more
flights than their competitors in all important markets; frequency is a
means of product differentiation for the relatively price-inelastic
business traveler.
...
Air travel is, for many travelers,
a fungible commodity,
particularly for short flights.
...
Network Carriers Have Higher Costs
than Point-to-Point Carriers


Adding some direct flights is better than having to hub. It is my opinion that coronavirus makes people want the non-stop. Now, Breeze is going for more marginal routes that can be stimulated by less than daily frequency. Considering how successful Allegiant has been, there is demand for less than daily frequency. I'm not saying Breeze is allergic to better than daily frequency, they are first and foremost trying to avoid competition to stimulate yield.

The A220 will offer a very nice product for Breeze. The improved economics over the E-jets will allow more routes to be viable, in particular routes ready to go daily (or higher) frequency. I see Breeze as an Allegiant targeted to professionals. We discuss Allegiant's typical 10% growth in their threads. If that is what Breeze settles into, they will be a force to be reckoned with.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1468599

Breeze doesn't compete with SouthWest directly, they are going up against Frontier, Spirit, and Allegiant. What they are trying to do is offer a much better customer experience. If you look at the ULCCs, the customer satisfaction is poor. That means customers are not "sticky" which, in my opinion, will reduce yield. With all the current ULCCs in the bottom half of customer satisfaction, I see an opportunity.
https://money.cnn.com/2017/04/25/pf/bes ... index.html

As a side note, Breeze has done the app right.

I see Breeze stimulating traffic. I see them growing fast the first few years. For myself, it is waiting for them to offer flights useful to me (I'm in Los Angeles where Breeze hasn't reached, yet). Breeze is starting out new and is well funded in an environment of airlines that seem to be deep in debt. They bought aircraft at the right time and are really up there with Allegiant for being an opportunistic buyer of aircraft as both the E-jets and A220s were brought in when the sellers had no pricing leverage.

I have no doubt Breeze will take all the A220s and will have to go back to negotiate for more aircraft. They'll have 15 A220s in service by end of the year. I'm excited to see how the "dynamic seating" really works out. When I fly transcon, I'll always look at premium seats to see if worth it. So a low price "nicest" fare really appeals to me.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/breeze-a ... 00183.html

Not to mention Breeze takes pets. I only vacation with my small dog, in fact I plan my vacations around my kids first, dog second, and me third. So I'm excited to see a pet friendly airline growing.

Lightsaber

Day 1 for the A220s has 2 lines of flying:

TPA-OKC-TPA 0600-1157
TPA-RIC-TPA 1240-1735
TPA-ORF-TPA 1810-2258


TPA-CHS-TPA 0710-1035
TPA-SDF-TPA 1115-1607
TPA-CAK-TPA 1650-2206

I was trying to get tickets for the inaugural A220 revenue flight but now I'm torn... The OKC flight leaves first, at 6am. However, the CHS flight is priced higher on May, 4 vs other days, TPA-CHS was the first Breeze flight, and that flight is MX100, while OKC is MX118, all of which make me wonder if the OKC flight will be a soft inaugural and the CHS one the "official" one?

According to the press release, they're also flying to some previously undiscovered cities as well :

Akron/Canton, OK to:

- Tampa, FL (starting 5/4/22).
...
Oklahoma City, OH to:

- Tampa, FL (starting 5/4/22).

-Breeze Airways plans to announce new, longer routes for the airline’s Airbus A220 aircraft in the coming weeks but travelers will get their first opportunity to fly on the new aircraft on 17 existing Breeze routes this summer, starting May 4*, as the airline extends its sales booking window through September 6, 2022. Breeze will premiere its new ‘Nicest’ fare and first-class seating, available only on the A220s, with an introductory fare of just $99.

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/ ... nouncement

"New, longer routes...." SDF-SFO/SEA is my guess. (among others)

The 99$ gates on J won’t last I hope for MX’s sake. There’s 0 chance that they can make money off that

ahj2000 wrote:

The 99$ gates on J won’t last I hope for MX’s sake. There’s 0 chance that they can make money off that

...hmmmm 36 FC seats x $99 = @ $3,600.....PLUS the 90 non-FC seats at mix of fares....seems like money can indeed be made.

Bluegrass60 wrote:

ahj2000 wrote:

The 99$ gates on J won’t last I hope for MX’s sake. There’s 0 chance that they can make money off that

...hmmmm 36 FC seats x $99 = @ $3,600.....PLUS the 90 non-FC seats at mix of fares....seems like money can indeed be made.

Looking at Allegiants expected costs for the 737-7 at $10,495 per departure, the A223 should be less:
https://ir.allegiantair.com/static-file ... 37348c9605

A flight is also an opportunity to sell hotel, rental car, etc. My opinion is Breeze is a high end Allegiant. They have similar business models, just that breeze is trying to make the experience better to attract repeat business. I think they are catering to the right crowd and will make a profit.
Making $6,400 would take a yield of $71.11 per added seat. Looking at costs for nice and nicer, it is quite possible when ancillary sales profits are added in.

This is also a 6 day sale to gain media attention. I doubt every nicest seat will sell immediately or that Breeze didn't block a significant quantity of the seats to sell at last minute walk up fares.

Since Breeze does so much through the app, I expect their costs on the A223 to be lower than Allegiant"s and that they'll make a profit off fares that the network carriers couldn't consider. Too many of us think of the cost basis of the larger labor force airlines. Breeze's whole business plan is good service levels with really low costs, in particular very low fixed costs. I think this marketing stunt will make money, reward existing customers, and bring in new customers.

Lightsaber

Bluegrass60 wrote:

ahj2000 wrote:

The 99$ gates on J won’t last I hope for MX’s sake. There’s 0 chance that they can make money off that

...hmmmm 36 FC seats x $99 = @ $3,600.....PLUS the 90 non-FC seats at mix of fares....seems like money can indeed be made.

Im going to be generous and use a 75% load factor (higher than what they are currently running:

36 seats x .75 = 27 seats x $99 = $2673
90 seats x .75 = 68 seats x $49 = $3332

Total revenue = $6005

At $3500/hr operating cost not including overhead, ground handling etc, that money to be had is only on flights under 2 hours. Those long and thin transcons everyone keeps talking about are going to require higher fares and or higher load factors than they have been able to charge or generate thus far.

After staring at the Breeze route map, it occurred to me they need another base on the East coast.
https://www.businessinsider.com/breeze- ... 20airlines.

Initial bases were:
Tampa Florida
Charleston, South Carolina
Norfolk Virginia
New Orleans, Louisiana

They plan to have 70 cities eventually
Warning, open link in Incognito tab, I find the cookies persistent for simpleflying:
https://simpleflying.com/breeze-airways-plans/


Most of Breeze's flying is 4 days per link (sublink of above link, again open in incognito window):
https://simpleflying.com/breeze-airways-one-month/

Indeed, examining OAG data shows that its early August flights are almost fully on Mondays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Sundays. This corresponds to what ultra-low-cost-carrier Allegiant said in its November 2019 investor relations document: “All days of the week are not created equal. Sundays are good, Tuesdays are bad, and Saturdays are good and bad.”

To do more daily flying, I believe Breeze will need another pilot base to contain costs. The question is where? Did a miss an announcement?

Also staring at that route map, Breeze needs more Florida destinations and it looks like Upstate New York, Michigan, and Illinois seem to be obvious expansion points. Oh, I hope for West Coast cities, but air travel is more fungible on shorter distances (per link in my prior post), so I expect most growth to be East of the Mississippi.

Lightsaber

lightsaber wrote:

After staring at the Breeze route map, it occurred to me they need another base on the East coast.
https://www.businessinsider.com/breeze- ... 20airlines.

Initial bases were:
Tampa Florida
Charleston, South Carolina
Norfolk Virginia
New Orleans, Louisiana

They plan to have 70 cities eventually
Warning, open link in Incognito tab, I find the cookies persistent for simpleflying:
https://simpleflying.com/breeze-airways-plans/


Most of Breeze's flying is 4 days per link (sublink of above link, again open in incognito window):
https://simpleflying.com/breeze-airways-one-month/

Indeed, examining OAG data shows that its early August flights are almost fully on Mondays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Sundays. This corresponds to what ultra-low-cost-carrier Allegiant said in its November 2019 investor relations document: “All days of the week are not created equal. Sundays are good, Tuesdays are bad, and Saturdays are good and bad.”

To do more daily flying, I believe Breeze will need another pilot base to contain costs. The question is where? Did a miss an announcement?

Also staring at that route map, Breeze needs more Florida destinations and it looks like Upstate New York, Michigan, and Illinois seem to be obvious expansion points. Oh, I hope for West Coast cities, but air travel is more fungible on shorter distances (per link in my prior post), so I expect most growth to be East of the Mississippi.

Lightsaber

With TATL being a goal, seems like BDL or PVD would fit that bill.

Looks like TPA-CMH is getting dropped of suspended, which isn't really a surprise as it goes up against NK, F9 and WN on the same route.

BTVB6Flyer wrote:

Looks like TPA-CMH is getting dropped of suspended, which isn't really a surprise as it goes up against NK, F9 and WN on the same route.

Yes discussion about this in the Rest of Ohio thread- It also goes up against G4 (LCK-PIE) so just a bloodbath on that route. MSY-CAK dropped as well.

BDL is an A220 Base starting in June.

Looks like the A220 will service HSV. Personally, I'm still skeptical of Breeze's staying power there...

https://www.al.com/news/mobile/2022/01/ ... ville.html

lightsaber wrote:

After staring at the Breeze route map, it occurred to me they need another base on the East coast.
https://www.businessinsider.com/breeze- ... 20airlines.

Initial bases were:
Tampa Florida
Charleston, South Carolina
Norfolk Virginia
New Orleans, Louisiana

They plan to have 70 cities eventually
Warning, open link in Incognito tab, I find the cookies persistent for simpleflying:
https://simpleflying.com/breeze-airways-plans/


Most of Breeze's flying is 4 days per link (sublink of above link, again open in incognito window):
https://simpleflying.com/breeze-airways-one-month/

Indeed, examining OAG data shows that its early August flights are almost fully on Mondays, Thursdays, Fridays, and Sundays. This corresponds to what ultra-low-cost-carrier Allegiant said in its November 2019 investor relations document: “All days of the week are not created equal. Sundays are good, Tuesdays are bad, and Saturdays are good and bad.”

To do more daily flying, I believe Breeze will need another pilot base to contain costs. The question is where? Did a miss an announcement?

Also staring at that route map, Breeze needs more Florida destinations and it looks like Upstate New York, Michigan, and Illinois seem to be obvious expansion points. Oh, I hope for West Coast cities, but air travel is more fungible on shorter distances (per link in my prior post), so I expect most growth to be East of the Mississippi.

Lightsaber

If you look at Breeze's current route map, there is a a huge hole from the south and west sides of NYC all the way down through the PHL area, which then continues past the DMV. It's not until you get to RIC do you find a market Breeze serves. This is one of the most densely populated regions of the country with loads of leisure travelers with disposable incomes looking to get away. The challenge Breeze faces in this region is to find an airport with little nonstop competition and with low costs (it's like looking for sasquatch). It's tough to find one that exists and it's probably why Breeze doesn't currently serve any airports in the region (except ISP). I find this challenge to be a fascinating one because major airports like JFK, LGA, EWR, PHL, BWI, DCA, and IAD are all costly to operate out of for a small carrier like Breeze and or those airports are all well covered by the major ULCCs and AA, UA and DL. I think Breeze entering ISP is a hint at their strategy in the region as they seem to be looking at airports on the periphery of these major markets with little nonstop competition. Airports like SWF or possibly TTN and ILG seem like reasonable candidates for Breeze service in the next 1-3 years. I don't think Breeze will serve all of those airports, but I think it's a good bet Breeze will enter at least one of them (my money is on SWF) within the next year or so.

I think airports like AVP, ABE, ACY, MDT or HGR might be too far away from the major population centers to consider as alternatives to EWR, PHL, BWI, DCA, etc. or they sit in markets Breeze might deem too small to serve, but we'll see. One thing is for sure, I am excited to see how Breeze approaches this region over the next 1-3 years. Maybe they'll surprise us all and bite the bullet by entering one of the primary airports like EWR, PHL or IAD or enter a smaller periphery market like ABE! Or maybe they continue to avoid the area altogether!

flightsimer wrote:

BDL is an A220 Base starting in June.

So many existing and potential BDL routes are perfect for Breeze (MSY, SEA, PHX etc.) but I wonder if BDL is big enough where it would illicit a response from AA or B6 or AS in the case of SEA.. I don't think any airline would bat an eye when MX adds something westbound from PVD.

MDTflyer1 wrote:

.
If you look at Breeze's current route map, there is a a huge hole from the south and west sides of NYC all the way down through the PHL area, which then continues past the DMV. It's not until you get to RIC do you find a market Breeze serves. This is one of the most densely populated regions of the country with loads of leisure travelers with disposable incomes looking to get away. The challenge Breeze faces in this region is to find an airport with little nonstop competition and with low costs (it's like looking for sasquatch). It's tough to find one that exists and it's probably why Breeze doesn't currently serve any airports in the region (except ISP). I find this challenge to be a fascinating one because major airports like JFK, LGA, EWR, PHL, BWI, DCA, and IAD are all costly to operate out of for a small carrier like Breeze and or those airports are all well covered by the major ULCCs and AA, UA and DL. I think Breeze entering ISP is a hint at their strategy in the region as they seem to be looking at airports on the periphery of these major markets with little nonstop competition. Airports like SWF or possibly TTN and ILG seem like reasonable candidates for Breeze service in the next 1-3 years. I don't think Breeze will serve all of those airports, but I think it's a good bet Breeze will enter at least one of them (my money is on SWF) within the next year or so.

I think airports like AVP, ABE, ACY, MDT or HGR might be too far away from the major population centers to consider as alternatives to EWR, PHL, BWI, DCA, etc. or they sit in markets Breeze might deem too small to serve, but we'll see. One thing is for sure, I am excited to see how Breeze approaches this region over the next 1-3 years. Maybe they'll surprise us all and bite the bullet by entering one of the primary airports like EWR, PHL or IAD or enter a smaller periphery market like ABE! Or maybe they continue to avoid the area altogether!

David has said that TTN would be perfect if F9 wasn't there and he would be right. However the question is with Frontier's 320 fleet not being able to go past MSY/MSP economically due to TTNs 6006ft runway and a few obstructions near the airport, MXs a220 might be able to travel where F9 can't. They have a new terminal and 2 additional gates to fill starting in 2024 and Mercer county
has already indicated they have been having informal talks with other airlines. But does F9 go after Breeze on other routes even though they are not planning on getting any aircraft that can fly the potential Breeze routes and the runway is not getting expanded anytime soon with the NIMBY situation they have already.

TTN covers the Southern portion of EWRs catchment anf the Northern of PHL, so it is a good spot to be in.

RL757PVD wrote:

flightsimer wrote:

BDL is an A220 Base starting in June.

So many existing and potential BDL routes are perfect for Breeze (MSY, SEA, PHX etc.) but I wonder if BDL is big enough where it would illicit a response from AA or B6 or AS in the case of SEA.. I don't think any airline would bat an eye when MX adds something westbound from PVD.

I would be inclined to feel that if Breeze will be basing an A220 aircraft at BDL that this is a small stepping stone to the west coast and hopefully SEA. (hopefully by the end of the year) With B6 on LAX and SFO I don't see those airports as viable as they might have once been.
Also looking at dummy bookings for most of July and August I have seen all 4 routes out of BDL all on the A220 for all dates, obviously that is tentative to change but that is certainly impressive.

lightsaber wrote:

Direct flights always stimulate demand. The same with higher frequency or lower fares: Link is pdf:
https://www.mcgill.ca/iasl/files/iasl/a ... cs_psd.pdf
The S-curve relationship between frequency, along one axis, and unit
revenue, along the other, encourages airlines to offer relatively more
flights than their competitors in all important markets; frequency is a
means of product differentiation for the relatively price-inelastic
business traveler....

That is the point I was trying to make. Thank you for making the point in such a concise and clear post.

Bluegrass60 wrote:

-Breeze Airways plans to announce new, longer routes for the airline’s Airbus A220 aircraft in the coming weeks but travelers will get their first opportunity to fly on the new aircraft on 17 existing Breeze routes this summer, starting May 4*, as the airline extends its sales booking window through September 6, 2022. Breeze will premiere its new ‘Nicest’ fare and first-class seating, available only on the A220s, with an introductory fare of just $99.

I had always thought that Breeze would use the A220s only for new and longer routes. I was wrong again......

IMO this is a brilliant marketing move - it has generated a lot of publicity and could stimulate new interest in Breeze's current markets.

And one A220 can cover a substantial portion of the current routes since it will be a high utilization aircraft being operated on low frequency routes.

David

just went to this App in to see if i cohld find a flight for my friend on LI and when I looked at ISP MSY it said "1 Breeze Thru) almost like there would be stop have rhey annnounced direct flights yet??

BDL being an A220 base does this mean having pilots and FA's based there? If so that is encouraging news for BDL. I could definitely see the likes of PHX, SEA, AUS, MSY, JAX, being added in the long term.

CMH will get an A220 beginning in June on a BDL-CMH-ORF-CMH-BDL routing.

DeltaRules wrote:

CMH will get an A220 beginning in June on a BDL-CMH-ORF-CMH-BDL routing.

How long does it last? I checked both routes out of HSV, and I only see the A220 on each route for around a month before it reverts to the Ejets.

David

Novaboy2525 wrote:

RL757PVD wrote:

flightsimer wrote:

BDL is an A220 Base starting in June.

So many existing and potential BDL routes are perfect for Breeze (MSY, SEA, PHX etc.) but I wonder if BDL is big enough where it would illicit a response from AA or B6 or AS in the case of SEA.. I don't think any airline would bat an eye when MX adds something westbound from PVD.

I would be inclined to feel that if Breeze will be basing an A220 aircraft at BDL that this is a small stepping stone to the west coast and hopefully SEA. (hopefully by the end of the year) With B6 on LAX and SFO I don't see those airports as viable as they might have once been.
Also looking at dummy bookings for most of July and August I have seen all 4 routes out of BDL all on the A220 for all dates, obviously that is tentative to change but that is certainly impressive.

You will have west coast by Beginning of summer. This network extension is only for the current routes. New routes will start to be announced by end of Feb/Early March for both EJET AND A220 flying.

Jerseyguy wrote:

just went to this App in to see if i cohld find a flight for my friend on LI and when I looked at ISP MSY it said "1 Breeze Thru) almost like there would be stop have rhey annnounced direct flights yet??

No, thats exactly what it is. Through flights are now being offered in certain markets starting in the summer.

Guessing MSY is underperforming expectations given no A220 is being based there and CAK is ending in May.

flightsimer wrote:

Novaboy2525 wrote:

RL757PVD wrote:

So many existing and potential BDL routes are perfect for Breeze (MSY, SEA, PHX etc.) but I wonder if BDL is big enough where it would illicit a response from AA or B6 or AS in the case of SEA.. I don't think any airline would bat an eye when MX adds something westbound from PVD.

I would be inclined to feel that if Breeze will be basing an A220 aircraft at BDL that this is a small stepping stone to the west coast and hopefully SEA. (hopefully by the end of the year) With B6 on LAX and SFO I don't see those airports as viable as they might have once been.
Also looking at dummy bookings for most of July and August I have seen all 4 routes out of BDL all on the A220 for all dates, obviously that is tentative to change but that is certainly impressive.

You will have west coast by Beginning of summer. This network extension is only for the current routes. New routes will start to be announced by end of Feb/Early March for both EJET AND A220 flying.

What west coast bases are being discussed I heard a PNW potentially in 2022 ?

I'm excited to see SAN mentioned as one of the potential w/c targets and can't help but suspect it will be one of the first "Out-West" stations announced.

There are several cities already seeing MX service that could be started immediately from SAN, some of the cities that WN has kept trying to start (but don't stick with) and AS seems unable or unwilling to try; I'm thinking of un-served or under-served places (from SAN) such as TPA, BDL, ORF, PIT, and OKC that would be a perfect fit for the 220 and would probably all support daily service if that were possible.. (Since SDF and CMH were mentioned with SAN in the article quoted up-thread, I suppose they should be highly considered as well.)

I'll be anxiously awaiting Breeze's arrival on the Left Coast and look forward to the announcements to start coming in over the next couple of months!

bb

Someone noted that Thru Flights have appeared on the MX schedule. That is very interesting. From SDF/CMH/OKC/TUL/SAT/XNA to the West Coast is 3-4 hours....that number of hours mentioned often by Breeze in conjunction with statements about longer routes. Add the Thru flight fact....and could very readily see East Coast stations (BDL, PVD, ISP, ORF, RIC) thru to interior cities like SDF/CMH etc then on to West Coast destinations like SFO, SEA, SAN etc. There could be a mix of thru and nonstop fares with various flavors of fares that would make the Thru Flight option appealing...(remember the PI Hopscotch fare options). Also allows those flights to be more profitable as they mature

Is there any recent info released as to what are MX's top passenger producing stations and/or revenue? Where is the businessĺcoming from?

Bluegrass60 wrote:

Someone noted that Thru Flights have appeared on the MX schedule. That is very interesting. From SDF/CMH/OKC/TUL/SAT/XNA to the West Coast is 3-4 hours....that number of hours mentioned often by Breeze in conjunction with statements about longer routes. Add the Thru flight fact....and could very readily see East Coast stations (BDL, PVD, ISP, ORF, RIC) thru to interior cities like SDF/CMH etc then on to West Coast destinations like SFO, SEA, SAN etc. There could be a mix of thru and nonstop fares with various flavors of fares that would make the Thru Flight option appealing...(remember the PI Hopscotch fare options). Also allows those flights to be more profitable as they mature

TPA-XNA-SEA is a perfect set up

http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=Tpa-sea%0D ... =wls&DU=mi

But the TPA-XNA flight times all appear to be out and backs from TPA at this time.

That said, MEM would make a good spot for several "breezethrus" from the east/southeast tothe west in the future for both A223s and the EJets
http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=Pit-sat%0D ... =wls&DU=mi

Looks like breeze added a nonstop ISP - SDF route on May 5 and May 8. Likely trying their hand on some special event related flights, Kentucky Derby that weekend.

runningonempty wrote:

Looks like breeze added a nonstop ISP - SDF route on May 5 and May 8. Likely trying their hand on some special event related flights, Kentucky Derby that weekend.

Yes. Also added SDF-RIC, SDF-ORF, SDF-PVD, SDF-BDL for Derby. The adds to BDL, ORF, RIC are interesting. I know in the past extra/new segments added to BOS and NYC area for Derby. (that could explain PVD and ISP)