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UA857
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:20 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
amtravels wrote:
I’m sure this has been discussed before, but is there any place in United’s current fleet strategy for the 777X? Do you see UA ordering them at some point?

Not anytime soon, the 77Ws are young


If UA cancels there A350 order they could replace their 772s with a fleet of 23 78JERs and 22 779s. The 779 would be perfect for high-capacity routes from United’s slot-constrained SFO and EWR hubs complementing the 77W when the fleet receives their mid-life overhaul in the late 2020s Then the 77W fleet would be reshuffled to replace the GE 77E while the 78JER replaces the PW 77E. Then the GE 77E fleet can be de-rated and used on domestic routes where they could replace the 77A fleet. Maybe if they cancel the A350 order they could use its deposits for A220s and more A321XLRs.
 
RMTAviation
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:54 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 20, 2022 11:03 pm

adamblang wrote:
codc10 wrote:
itripreport wrote:
Has he made any mention at all about the united next retrofits?


I think the delta wave, then omicron, then Boeing delivery delays, and continued sluggish recovery, supply chain issues, then inflation, have chilled United's plan for rapid retrofits. It's really been one hit after another since July 2021, and none of them bode well for the plans United outlined at the time.

I'm not doubting United Next happens, but with each passing month I am more convinced it ultimately becomes a narrowbody fleet renewal program rather than a major growth strategy.

I just don't think the markets, both equity and capital, have the appetite for aggressive expansion from UAL or others right now.

Not saying anybody in this thread is right or wrong but to add some nuance to the discussion...

Scott Kirby on LinkedIn:
Our United Next strategy remains on track – when combined with our current orders, we expect to add more than 500 new narrow-body aircraft in the coming years, designed around the needs of our customers. Next year alone, our fleet could add about one new narrow-body aircraft every three days.

My 2¢: I would've loved to see a few dozen retrofitted aircraft by now but a timeline was never actually communicated. I wonder if eVTOLs/SSTs/Next were all "off in the future, we need something to feel good about right now" announcements? I hope announce now, see the first result in a few years doesn't become a new normal.


I agree with the " hope announce now, see the first result in a few years doesn't become a new normal," but I would give United, or any any airline a pass for the last two years. They are losing billions, and the fact that they are even starting to proceed to spending I would assume billions into putting IFE on 500+ aircraft is a big move. Yes, slower than expected, but better later than never.
 
RMTAviation
Posts: 125
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Wed Apr 20, 2022 11:15 pm

UA857 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
amtravels wrote:
I’m sure this has been discussed before, but is there any place in United’s current fleet strategy for the 777X? Do you see UA ordering them at some point?

Not anytime soon, the 77Ws are young


If UA cancels there A350 order they could replace their 772s with a fleet of 23 78JERs and 22 779s. The 779 would be perfect for high-capacity routes from United’s slot-constrained SFO and EWR hubs complementing the 77W when the fleet receives their mid-life overhaul in the late 2020s Then the 77W fleet would be reshuffled to replace the GE 77E while the 78JER replaces the PW 77E. Then the GE 77E fleet can be de-rated and used on domestic routes where they could replace the 77A fleet. Maybe if they cancel the A350 order they could use its deposits for A220s and more A321XLRs.


I love your idea, but unfortunately the 779 doesn't fly, the 78JER doesn't exist, and even the current 787's haven't been delivered for a year. Are the GE777's newer/less cycles than the PW ones, or are they just going to be in the fleet longer due to the 77W engine commonality?


codc10 wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:
codc10 wrote:

100 narrowbodies? Maybe RJs, but not mainline-category narrowbodies. 23 domestic 777s are a "force multiplier", but not to that degree. 1 HD 777 is rougly equivalent in capacity to 2 739s, or a bit less than 3 A319/737-700s.


I thought 52 772's were ground, around the capacity of 100ish A320/738 if I am not mistaken. I could be wrong though.


Now I understand. Strictly by the numbers, yes, but you also need to consider the fact that most of the widebody fleet (by block hours) was deployed to the Pacific network, which is still a fraction of what it was pre-COVID. Immediately after COVID spooled up, lots of 777s were parked, so it's not as though the absence of many of those 777ERs creates a deficit in the current network. It's also not particularly economical for the premium-heavy, low-density international 777s to be operating in the domestic sector, churning up cycles, which is why you'll see the Polaris 777ERs (77N/U) return to service after the HD 777s (77G/M/Q).


Is cycles really even something that is considered these days? EK flies B777's and A380's on 40 minute flights, and I've heard somewhere that even with 8 takeoffs and landings each day, a 777 can go 20 years. As far as the Polaris seating goes, for Hawaii, the vacation destinations, the HD configuration makes a lot more sense with family configured business class, but the Polaris product makes a lot of sense on EWR-LAX/SFO, which is why they fly 763s, and brand new 77W/78J/789. If anything, take the brand new 78J's out of these routes and put them to Europe for fuel savings, and the Polaris PW 772E can replace these.
 
codc10
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:33 am

RMTAviation wrote:
Is cycles really even something that is considered these days? EK flies B777's and A380's on 40 minute flights, and I've heard somewhere that even with 8 takeoffs and landings each day, a 777 can go 20 years. As far as the Polaris seating goes, for Hawaii, the vacation destinations, the HD configuration makes a lot more sense with family configured business class, but the Polaris product makes a lot of sense on EWR-LAX/SFO, which is why they fly 763s, and brand new 77W/78J/789. If anything, take the brand new 78J's out of these routes and put them to Europe for fuel savings, and the Polaris PW 772E can replace these.


Cycles absolutely matter, especially on widebodies, with regard to components like engines and landing gear. The issue with aging airframes, like most of United's widebody fleet, is that heavy maintenance becomes more expensive over time, so United would prefer to keep cycles lower and hours higher on its older frames, all things considered, especially with internationally-configured widebodies that are generating best cash flow when full of paid business class fares and freight on longer hauls.
 
RMTAviation
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:35 am

codc10 wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:
Is cycles really even something that is considered these days? EK flies B777's and A380's on 40 minute flights, and I've heard somewhere that even with 8 takeoffs and landings each day, a 777 can go 20 years. As far as the Polaris seating goes, for Hawaii, the vacation destinations, the HD configuration makes a lot more sense with family configured business class, but the Polaris product makes a lot of sense on EWR-LAX/SFO, which is why they fly 763s, and brand new 77W/78J/789. If anything, take the brand new 78J's out of these routes and put them to Europe for fuel savings, and the Polaris PW 772E can replace these.


Cycles absolutely matter, especially on widebodies, with regard to components like engines and landing gear. The issue with aging airframes, like most of United's widebody fleet, is that heavy maintenance becomes more expensive over time, so United would prefer to keep cycles lower and hours higher on its older frames, all things considered, especially with internationally-configured widebodies that are generating best cash flow when full of paid business class fares and freight on longer hauls.


Ok, so it doesn't have to do with the max cycles that the airframe can fly, but more so the expensive maintenance needed if flying more cycles. Got it, thanks!
 
codc10
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:42 am

RMTAviation wrote:
codc10 wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:
Is cycles really even something that is considered these days? EK flies B777's and A380's on 40 minute flights, and I've heard somewhere that even with 8 takeoffs and landings each day, a 777 can go 20 years. As far as the Polaris seating goes, for Hawaii, the vacation destinations, the HD configuration makes a lot more sense with family configured business class, but the Polaris product makes a lot of sense on EWR-LAX/SFO, which is why they fly 763s, and brand new 77W/78J/789. If anything, take the brand new 78J's out of these routes and put them to Europe for fuel savings, and the Polaris PW 772E can replace these.


Cycles absolutely matter, especially on widebodies, with regard to components like engines and landing gear. The issue with aging airframes, like most of United's widebody fleet, is that heavy maintenance becomes more expensive over time, so United would prefer to keep cycles lower and hours higher on its older frames, all things considered, especially with internationally-configured widebodies that are generating best cash flow when full of paid business class fares and freight on longer hauls.


Ok, so it doesn't have to do with the max cycles that the airframe can fly, but more so the expensive maintenance needed if flying more cycles. Got it, thanks!


Right... each successive HMV typically becomes more expensive, with more components to inspect, repair, replace, etc., along with associated labor costs. HMV intervals are usually measured in flight hours, but part overhaul/replacement and inspections are often measured in flight cycles.
 
maximairways
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 2:38 am

Okcflyer wrote:
Gyrfalcon wrote:
I may have missed it. Does anyone know which motors the A321neo and XLR are coming with? PW1100 or CFM?


I haven't seen a news release declaring this. It's possible they are still negotiating but deadlines are quickly approaching.

IMHO, PW has (had) to treat this as a must-win and it's an uphill climb given UA already has long-term agreement(s) for CFM Leap and theoretically there are some synergies there.

UA is historically a large PW customer using their tech in IAE-V2500 A319/A320s, 757 (now retired), 767's (PW 4060), 777 (PW 4070/4090). Except for the 757's, most of these are still flying, However, the the A321neoXLR threaten the survivability of the B767's. The 777's will begin to be retired by the end of the decade. And the V2500 A320's have slowly started retirement already.

Failing to win these 130 airplanes and PW's revenues from UA will begin sinking pretty quickly over the coming years.

PW likely has credits owed due to the 4070/4090 fiasco, that can sweeten the pot for them. CFM is hungry to keep GTF out of UA and land a big XLR contract. UA is in an ideal position to negotiate here. :)


They will be GTF powered.
 
UA857
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 4:02 am

RMTAviation wrote:
UA857 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Not anytime soon, the 77Ws are young


If UA cancels there A350 order they could replace their 772s with a fleet of 23 78JERs and 22 779s. The 779 would be perfect for high-capacity routes from United’s slot-constrained SFO and EWR hubs complementing the 77W when the fleet receives their mid-life overhaul in the late 2020s Then the 77W fleet would be reshuffled to replace the GE 77E while the 78JER replaces the PW 77E. Then the GE 77E fleet can be de-rated and used on domestic routes where they could replace the 77A fleet. Maybe if they cancel the A350 order they could use its deposits for A220s and more A321XLRs.


I love your idea, but unfortunately the 779 doesn't fly, the 78JER doesn't exist, and even the current 787's haven't been delivered for a year. Are the GE777's newer/less cycles than the PW ones, or are they just going to be in the fleet longer due to the 77W engine commonality?


If UA orders the 787-10ER/777-9 and converts the A350 order for A220s or A321XLRs then these aircraft won’t arrive until at least 2027. By then the 777-200/200ER fleet would be starting heading out for the boneyard and the 777-300ER fleet would be undergoing a midlife overhaul.
 
Gyrfalcon
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 4:13 am

maximairways wrote:
Okcflyer wrote:
Gyrfalcon wrote:
I may have missed it. Does anyone know which motors the A321neo and XLR are coming with? PW1100 or CFM?


I haven't seen a news release declaring this. It's possible they are still negotiating but deadlines are quickly approaching.

IMHO, PW has (had) to treat this as a must-win and it's an uphill climb given UA already has long-term agreement(s) for CFM Leap and theoretically there are some synergies there.

UA is historically a large PW customer using their tech in IAE-V2500 A319/A320s, 757 (now retired), 767's (PW 4060), 777 (PW 4070/4090). Except for the 757's, most of these are still flying, However, the the A321neoXLR threaten the survivability of the B767's. The 777's will begin to be retired by the end of the decade. And the V2500 A320's have slowly started retirement already.

Failing to win these 130 airplanes and PW's revenues from UA will begin sinking pretty quickly over the coming years.

PW likely has credits owed due to the 4070/4090 fiasco, that can sweeten the pot for them. CFM is hungry to keep GTF out of UA and land a big XLR contract. UA is in an ideal position to negotiate here. :)


They will be GTF powered.


I don’t have any reason to not believe this but do you have a source?
 
fun2fly
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:13 am

UA Q2 results show the following fleet plan:
Q2 = 2x 737Max
Q3 = 2x 78J's and 19 737Max
Q4 = 4 78J's and 27 737Max

Plus the return of the PW777's. That's a lot of capacity!
 
airplanedriver6
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:41 am

fun2fly wrote:
UA Q2 results show the following fleet plan:
That's a lot of capacity!

FWIW, UAL expects ~500 new aircraft in the next five years. So, yes.
 
Opus99
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:54 am

RMTAviation wrote:
UA857 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Not anytime soon, the 77Ws are young


If UA cancels there A350 order they could replace their 772s with a fleet of 23 78JERs and 22 779s. The 779 would be perfect for high-capacity routes from United’s slot-constrained SFO and EWR hubs complementing the 77W when the fleet receives their mid-life overhaul in the late 2020s Then the 77W fleet would be reshuffled to replace the GE 77E while the 78JER replaces the PW 77E. Then the GE 77E fleet can be de-rated and used on domestic routes where they could replace the 77A fleet. Maybe if they cancel the A350 order they could use its deposits for A220s and more A321XLRs.


I love your idea, but unfortunately the 779 doesn't fly, the 78JER doesn't exist, and even the current 787's haven't been delivered for a year. Are the GE777's newer/less cycles than the PW ones, or are they just going to be in the fleet longer due to the 77W engine commonality?


codc10 wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:

I thought 52 772's were ground, around the capacity of 100ish A320/738 if I am not mistaken. I could be wrong though.


Now I understand. Strictly by the numbers, yes, but you also need to consider the fact that most of the widebody fleet (by block hours) was deployed to the Pacific network, which is still a fraction of what it was pre-COVID. Immediately after COVID spooled up, lots of 777s were parked, so it's not as though the absence of many of those 777ERs creates a deficit in the current network. It's also not particularly economical for the premium-heavy, low-density international 777s to be operating in the domestic sector, churning up cycles, which is why you'll see the Polaris 777ERs (77N/U) return to service after the HD 777s (77G/M/Q).


Is cycles really even something that is considered these days? EK flies B777's and A380's on 40 minute flights, and I've heard somewhere that even with 8 takeoffs and landings each day, a 777 can go 20 years. As far as the Polaris seating goes, for Hawaii, the vacation destinations, the HD configuration makes a lot more sense with family configured business class, but the Polaris product makes a lot of sense on EWR-LAX/SFO, which is why they fly 763s, and brand new 77W/78J/789. If anything, take the brand new 78J's out of these routes and put them to Europe for fuel savings, and the Polaris PW 772E can replace these.

The 78JER does exist in some form. It might not be called that but it does. Boeing just did not communicate that to us the public but customers are very much aware of it. As is the rest of the aviation community

https://twitter.com/byerussell/status/1 ... 4v5orC0Nvw
 
Cmac787
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:20 pm

757-200
N14118 has exited ROW storage and is enroute to ILN for heavy MX and return to service F2721/21
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:02 pm

Re A350 order, it’s worth noting that previous discussion/rumor on this thread and it’s predecessors was that Airbus were relatively happy to move the deposits to another order but Rolls Royce were playing hardball and would not release UA from the engine contract. If that’s true, and I have no way of knowing for sure, then United are stuck with 100-odd engines they don’t want unless they purchase a different RR engined aircraft.

The 787 is the only other RR option, but the Trent 1000 has had numerous issues on the 787 plus declining efficiencies from a split fleet. Of course they have two engine types on the 777, and with ~50 frames of both GE and RR there would be economies of scale with both engines.

However, if you’re going for a split fleet anyway then IMHO it makes more sense to just take the A350s. The 787 can cover most of the 777 flying at UA, but not all. If you need to consider the 77X to fill that gap at maximum range/payload, I’m honestly not sure why you wouldn’t just take the A350s. The A359 is an almost perfect 1-for-1 replacement for the 77Es.

No doubt United are constantly weighing these considerations, and are calculating the various options to use their Airbus and RR deposits vs the cost of inducting a new fleet type.
 
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adamblang
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:22 pm

The words out of Scott Kirby's mouth on the YouTube video up the thread are
  • It's either going to be 100 A350 or 0
  • The Rolls Royce engine penalties aren't such a big deal — a one-time penalty would be well worth it to save 20-30 years of split fleet costs
 
Cardude2
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:34 pm

adamblang wrote:
The words out of Scott Kirby's mouth on the YouTube video up the thread are
  • It's either going to be 100 A350 or 0
  • The Rolls Royce engine penalties aren't such a big deal — a one-time penalty would be well worth it to save 20-30 years of split fleet costs


so then where is the 789 order?
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:47 pm

Cardude2 wrote:
adamblang wrote:
The words out of Scott Kirby's mouth on the YouTube video up the thread are
  • It's either going to be 100 A350 or 0
  • The Rolls Royce engine penalties aren't such a big deal — a one-time penalty would be well worth it to save 20-30 years of split fleet costs


so then where is the 789 order?


Probably when the MTOW bump is available for both the -9 and -10
 
jbs2886
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:49 pm

Cardude2 wrote:
adamblang wrote:
The words out of Scott Kirby's mouth on the YouTube video up the thread are
  • It's either going to be 100 A350 or 0
  • The Rolls Royce engine penalties aren't such a big deal — a one-time penalty would be well worth it to save 20-30 years of split fleet costs


so then where is the 789 order?


Why do they *need* a new order now? Yes, 772s are getting old, but this forum is obsessed with the idea that there must be an order to replace them. UA has time. UA also has a lot of power and can likely get much faster deliveries than other airlines so it can afford to wait. Moreover, UA has a huge number of narrowbodies arriving in the next few years and that, IMO, will be the focus. After digesting most of those, then UA will be able to turn attention to the widebody fleet. So, again, UA has time.

Btw, Adam, good to hear confirmation that penalties aren't a big deal. That was exactly my thought - for an airline the size of United, that's not really a prohibitive item (although no company wants to pay a cancellation penalty). But, UA can just delay the A350/RR orders and kick the can down the road - maybe UA ends up taking A350s or another Airbus/RR product (possibly not yet available) - just keeps options open.
 
jbs2886
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:50 pm

ikolkyo wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:
adamblang wrote:
The words out of Scott Kirby's mouth on the YouTube video up the thread are
  • It's either going to be 100 A350 or 0
  • The Rolls Royce engine penalties aren't such a big deal — a one-time penalty would be well worth it to save 20-30 years of split fleet costs


so then where is the 789 order?


Probably when the MTOW bump is available for both the -9 and -10


I don't think that is really impacting the order. Airlines know the -9 and -10 are getting the bump, Air New Zealand ordered on the basis of that bump years ago. There just hasn't been some like formal, public "ER" offering/designation.
 
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ikolkyo
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:51 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
ikolkyo wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:

so then where is the 789 order?


Probably when the MTOW bump is available for both the -9 and -10


I don't think that is really impacting the order. Airlines know the -9 and -10 are getting the bump, Air New Zealand ordered on the basis of that bump years ago. There just hasn't been some like formal, public "ER" offering/designation.


This is fair, the true reason is probably when they get a deal they like.
 
Scarebus34
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:52 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:
adamblang wrote:
The words out of Scott Kirby's mouth on the YouTube video up the thread are
  • It's either going to be 100 A350 or 0
  • The Rolls Royce engine penalties aren't such a big deal — a one-time penalty would be well worth it to save 20-30 years of split fleet costs


so then where is the 789 order?


Why do they *need* a new order now? Yes, 772s are getting old, but this forum is obsessed with the idea that there must be an order to replace them. UA has time. UA also has a lot of power and can likely get much faster deliveries than other airlines so it can afford to wait. Moreover, UA has a huge number of narrowbodies arriving in the next few years and that, IMO, will be the focus. After digesting most of those, then UA will be able to turn attention to the widebody fleet. So, again, UA has time.

Btw, Adam, good to hear confirmation that penalties aren't a big deal. That was exactly my thought - for an airline the size of United, that's not really a prohibitive item (although no company wants to pay a cancellation penalty). But, UA can just delay the A350/RR orders and kick the can down the road - maybe UA ends up taking A350s or another Airbus/RR product (possibly not yet available) - just keeps options open.


Not sure why you folks continue to speculate. Kirby in his own words told you what the plan is.
 
jbs2886
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 9:55 pm

Scarebus34 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Cardude2 wrote:

so then where is the 789 order?


Why do they *need* a new order now? Yes, 772s are getting old, but this forum is obsessed with the idea that there must be an order to replace them. UA has time. UA also has a lot of power and can likely get much faster deliveries than other airlines so it can afford to wait. Moreover, UA has a huge number of narrowbodies arriving in the next few years and that, IMO, will be the focus. After digesting most of those, then UA will be able to turn attention to the widebody fleet. So, again, UA has time.

Btw, Adam, good to hear confirmation that penalties aren't a big deal. That was exactly my thought - for an airline the size of United, that's not really a prohibitive item (although no company wants to pay a cancellation penalty). But, UA can just delay the A350/RR orders and kick the can down the road - maybe UA ends up taking A350s or another Airbus/RR product (possibly not yet available) - just keeps options open.


Not sure why you folks continue to speculate. Kirby in his own words told you what the plan is.


Because that is what we do on this forum? Kirby didn't lay out some detailed plan, he made some comments upon which we are speculating.
 
fun2fly
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 10:03 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Scarebus34 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:

Why do they *need* a new order now? Yes, 772s are getting old, but this forum is obsessed with the idea that there must be an order to replace them. UA has time. UA also has a lot of power and can likely get much faster deliveries than other airlines so it can afford to wait. Moreover, UA has a huge number of narrowbodies arriving in the next few years and that, IMO, will be the focus. After digesting most of those, then UA will be able to turn attention to the widebody fleet. So, again, UA has time.

Btw, Adam, good to hear confirmation that penalties aren't a big deal. That was exactly my thought - for an airline the size of United, that's not really a prohibitive item (although no company wants to pay a cancellation penalty). But, UA can just delay the A350/RR orders and kick the can down the road - maybe UA ends up taking A350s or another Airbus/RR product (possibly not yet available) - just keeps options open.


Not sure why you folks continue to speculate. Kirby in his own words told you what the plan is.


Because that is what we do on this forum? Kirby didn't lay out some detailed plan, he made some comments upon which we are speculating.


A CEO of a publicly traded company doesn't make a statement like "we are going to have a bake off" unless it's well thought out and part of the negotiation plan. It MAY or MAY NOT ever come true, but you can bet your a.net license that it is being discussed at Airbus HQ.

Back to the fleet, I'm encouraged that the PW772's are coming back online. If they are delayed in any way, UA is up XXXX's creek w/o a paddle from at TATL summer cash in perspective. Their actions seem to suggest great certainty in that happening. I'm scheduled on a LH359 and UA78J in mid-May and hoping the schedules stick.
 
jbs2886
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 10:09 pm

fun2fly wrote:
A CEO of a publicly traded company doesn't make a statement like "we are going to have a bake off" unless it's well thought out and part of the negotiation plan. It MAY or MAY NOT ever come true, but you can bet your a.net license that it is being discussed at Airbus HQ.


And Boeing's HQ! Completely agree.
 
RMTAviation
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 10:28 pm

fun2fly wrote:
UA Q2 results show the following fleet plan:
Q2 = 2x 737Max
Q3 = 2x 78J's and 19 737Max
Q4 = 4 78J's and 27 737Max

Plus the return of the PW777's. That's a lot of capacity!


Where can I see the fleet plan?
 
Trk1
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 10:40 pm

On the United.com. investor relations page. updated today
 
jbs2886
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 10:58 pm

RMTAviation wrote:
fun2fly wrote:
UA Q2 results show the following fleet plan:
Q2 = 2x 737Max
Q3 = 2x 78J's and 19 737Max
Q4 = 4 78J's and 27 737Max

Plus the return of the PW777's. That's a lot of capacity!


Where can I see the fleet plan?


https://ir.united.com/static-files/f427 ... 195d7d4a34
 
RMTAviation
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:54 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:18 pm

MDC862 wrote:
Notice the change in Scotts demeanor when he talks about 350. He is Mr Personality before and after, but clearly his tone changes. My interpretation is he is not sold on the plane and will use it as negotiation tactic to get Boeing price down. He says upfrint to add it is a "couple hundred million" because of fleet type.

Sorry, it wont be on UA property.



fun2fly wrote:
MDC862 wrote:
Notice the change in Scotts demeanor when he talks about 350. He is Mr Personality before and after, but clearly his tone changes. My interpretation is he is not sold on the plane and will use it as negotiation tactic to get Boeing price down. He says upfrint to add it is a "couple hundred million" because of fleet type.

Sorry, it wont be on UA property.


Agreed. Do they turn into 125 x 319NEO's to replace the 73G and 319's? Sprinkle in a few more 321's.

The 738 and 320's are slated to go MAX.

Resulting:

319/321 x 200 + units
737Max 8/9/10 x 350+ units

One thing we've learned lately, fleet diversity is a requirement even if it costs a bit more.


Unless Boeing comes out with the 787-10ER, United will have no choice but to get the A350. I do agree with you, it seems like they do not want it, but until we reach the point where Boeing offers a competitor to it, I guess United will have to stick with the A350.

I can't see United, or anyone for that matter ordering the A319neo. It is inefficient, takes up valuable slots on the A321neo production line, and a bit overpriced for what it is. There is a reason why Spirit is the only airline that has ordered the A319neo in North America, and that is purely for fleet commonality and I am almost certian that if the B6 of F9 deal goes though, that these would be converted to either A320neo's or A321neo's if possible. United is a full service carrier that operates multiple fleet types, so they have no reason to restrict themselves to A319neo's or even 737 MAX 7's (which were made basically just for Southwest). If anything, they would get more A321neo's, but considering that they have close to 500 737 MAX 9/10 and A321neo's on order, I doubt they will need any more anytime within the next decade.
 
RMTAviation
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:54 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:19 pm

Opus99 wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:
UA857 wrote:

If UA cancels there A350 order they could replace their 772s with a fleet of 23 78JERs and 22 779s. The 779 would be perfect for high-capacity routes from United’s slot-constrained SFO and EWR hubs complementing the 77W when the fleet receives their mid-life overhaul in the late 2020s Then the 77W fleet would be reshuffled to replace the GE 77E while the 78JER replaces the PW 77E. Then the GE 77E fleet can be de-rated and used on domestic routes where they could replace the 77A fleet. Maybe if they cancel the A350 order they could use its deposits for A220s and more A321XLRs.


I love your idea, but unfortunately the 779 doesn't fly, the 78JER doesn't exist, and even the current 787's haven't been delivered for a year. Are the GE777's newer/less cycles than the PW ones, or are they just going to be in the fleet longer due to the 77W engine commonality?


codc10 wrote:

Now I understand. Strictly by the numbers, yes, but you also need to consider the fact that most of the widebody fleet (by block hours) was deployed to the Pacific network, which is still a fraction of what it was pre-COVID. Immediately after COVID spooled up, lots of 777s were parked, so it's not as though the absence of many of those 777ERs creates a deficit in the current network. It's also not particularly economical for the premium-heavy, low-density international 777s to be operating in the domestic sector, churning up cycles, which is why you'll see the Polaris 777ERs (77N/U) return to service after the HD 777s (77G/M/Q).


Is cycles really even something that is considered these days? EK flies B777's and A380's on 40 minute flights, and I've heard somewhere that even with 8 takeoffs and landings each day, a 777 can go 20 years. As far as the Polaris seating goes, for Hawaii, the vacation destinations, the HD configuration makes a lot more sense with family configured business class, but the Polaris product makes a lot of sense on EWR-LAX/SFO, which is why they fly 763s, and brand new 77W/78J/789. If anything, take the brand new 78J's out of these routes and put them to Europe for fuel savings, and the Polaris PW 772E can replace these.

The 78JER does exist in some form. It might not be called that but it does. Boeing just did not communicate that to us the public but customers are very much aware of it. As is the rest of the aviation community

https://twitter.com/byerussell/status/1 ... 4v5orC0Nvw


Right, but how much more? Unless they can fly 12-15 hours, they really can't serve much of United's A350/772ER needs. a 10% increase, to say flying 5500-6000nm efficiently isn't going to cut it.
 
jbs2886
Posts: 4092
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:25 pm

RMTAviation wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:

I love your idea, but unfortunately the 779 doesn't fly, the 78JER doesn't exist, and even the current 787's haven't been delivered for a year. Are the GE777's newer/less cycles than the PW ones, or are they just going to be in the fleet longer due to the 77W engine commonality?




Is cycles really even something that is considered these days? EK flies B777's and A380's on 40 minute flights, and I've heard somewhere that even with 8 takeoffs and landings each day, a 777 can go 20 years. As far as the Polaris seating goes, for Hawaii, the vacation destinations, the HD configuration makes a lot more sense with family configured business class, but the Polaris product makes a lot of sense on EWR-LAX/SFO, which is why they fly 763s, and brand new 77W/78J/789. If anything, take the brand new 78J's out of these routes and put them to Europe for fuel savings, and the Polaris PW 772E can replace these.

The 78JER does exist in some form. It might not be called that but it does. Boeing just did not communicate that to us the public but customers are very much aware of it. As is the rest of the aviation community

https://twitter.com/byerussell/status/1 ... 4v5orC0Nvw


Right, but how much more? Unless they can fly 12-15 hours, they really can't serve much of United's A350/772ER needs. a 10% increase, to say flying 5500-6000nm efficiently isn't going to cut it.


How many routes are the 772ERs on that UA needs an increase above what you say? A handful at most. UA certainly has the option to use -9s on the even fewer number that a higher MTOW -10 can't fly. The -9 is only about 20 fewer seats than the 7772ER int'l config. Just because the 7772ERs may have more capabilities than a higher MTOW -10 doesn't mean it won't suit UA's needs.
 
Opus99
Posts: 3264
Joined: Thu May 30, 2019 10:51 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:29 pm

RMTAviation wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:

I love your idea, but unfortunately the 779 doesn't fly, the 78JER doesn't exist, and even the current 787's haven't been delivered for a year. Are the GE777's newer/less cycles than the PW ones, or are they just going to be in the fleet longer due to the 77W engine commonality?




Is cycles really even something that is considered these days? EK flies B777's and A380's on 40 minute flights, and I've heard somewhere that even with 8 takeoffs and landings each day, a 777 can go 20 years. As far as the Polaris seating goes, for Hawaii, the vacation destinations, the HD configuration makes a lot more sense with family configured business class, but the Polaris product makes a lot of sense on EWR-LAX/SFO, which is why they fly 763s, and brand new 77W/78J/789. If anything, take the brand new 78J's out of these routes and put them to Europe for fuel savings, and the Polaris PW 772E can replace these.

The 78JER does exist in some form. It might not be called that but it does. Boeing just did not communicate that to us the public but customers are very much aware of it. As is the rest of the aviation community

https://twitter.com/byerussell/status/1 ... 4v5orC0Nvw


Right, but how much more? Unless they can fly 12-15 hours, they really can't serve much of United's A350/772ER needs. a 10% increase, to say flying 5500-6000nm efficiently isn't going to cut it.

1. Boeing says they will match 200ER range

2. How many of uniteds routes are 12-15 hours?
 
Cmac787
Posts: 441
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:30 pm

One thing that stands out to me is little ERJCRJ retirements

jbs2886 wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:
fun2fly wrote:
UA Q2 results show the following fleet plan:
Q2 = 2x 737Max
Q3 = 2x 78J's and 19 737Max
Q4 = 4 78J's and 27 737Max

Plus the return of the PW777's. That's a lot of capacity!


Where can I see the fleet plan?


https://ir.united.com/static-files/f427 ... 195d7d4a34
 
jbs2886
Posts: 4092
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:35 pm

Cmac787 wrote:
One thing that stands out to me is little ERJCRJ retirements

jbs2886 wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:

Where can I see the fleet plan?


https://ir.united.com/static-files/f427 ... 195d7d4a34


Well those are lumped with -550s, so there may be more retirements of the old 50 seaters with "new" -550s coming in.
 
UA857
Posts: 756
Joined: Thu Aug 10, 2017 3:41 am

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 22, 2022 12:15 am

RMTAviation wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
RMTAviation wrote:

I love your idea, but unfortunately the 779 doesn't fly, the 78JER doesn't exist, and even the current 787's haven't been delivered for a year. Are the GE777's newer/less cycles than the PW ones, or are they just going to be in the fleet longer due to the 77W engine commonality?




Is cycles really even something that is considered these days? EK flies B777's and A380's on 40 minute flights, and I've heard somewhere that even with 8 takeoffs and landings each day, a 777 can go 20 years. As far as the Polaris seating goes, for Hawaii, the vacation destinations, the HD configuration makes a lot more sense with family configured business class, but the Polaris product makes a lot of sense on EWR-LAX/SFO, which is why they fly 763s, and brand new 77W/78J/789. If anything, take the brand new 78J's out of these routes and put them to Europe for fuel savings, and the Polaris PW 772E can replace these.

The 78JER does exist in some form. It might not be called that but it does. Boeing just did not communicate that to us the public but customers are very much aware of it. As is the rest of the aviation community

https://twitter.com/byerussell/status/1 ... 4v5orC0Nvw


Right, but how much more? Unless they can fly 12-15 hours, they really can't serve much of United's A350/772ER needs. a 10% increase, to say flying 5500-6000nm efficiently isn't going to cut it.


According to Boeing the 787-10ER which ANZ is going to be the launch customer for will have a range of 7200 nm.
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6841
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 22, 2022 4:38 am

Thats a lot of 737 Max additions in a short period of time. I guess that will solve the capacity problem in the Q2 schedules.
 
Okcflyer
Posts: 915
Joined: Sat May 23, 2015 11:10 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:04 am

fun2fly wrote:
UA Q2 results show the following fleet plan:
Q2 = 2x 737Max
Q3 = 2x 78J's and 19 737Max
Q4 = 4 78J's and 27 737Max

Plus the return of the PW777's. That's a lot of capacity!


What is the MAX breakdown? The UA google fleet site suggests 22 38M and 20 39M remaining for this year. That’s 4 short of the investor update.
 
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adamblang
Posts: 1618
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Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Fri Apr 22, 2022 3:01 pm

On the earnings call, Jon Roitman said the actual MAX model delivery sequence is subject to change.

The total number of MAXes is firm.

The dates they'll be delivered is squishy because of Boeing delivery troubles.

And the exact model sequence — -10, -9, -8 — is subject to change because -10s can't be delivered if -10s aren't yet certified. So if there are certification delays the -10s will be back-loaded in the delivery schedule. If -10 certification moves along, they'll start appearing sooner.
 
UAinAUS
Posts: 333
Joined: Fri Jun 17, 2016 8:11 am

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 1:44 am

UAX Update:

E145XR:
N14153 entered ROW for paint

CR5:
N564GJ exited FTW in EvoBlu livery
N509MJ entered FTW for paint

E175:
N89308 exited MCN in EvoBlu livery
N86309 entered MCN for paint
 
Scarebus34
Posts: 833
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 2:07 am

adamblang wrote:
On the earnings call, Jon Roitman said the actual MAX model delivery sequence is subject to change.

The total number of MAXes is firm.

The dates they'll be delivered is squishy because of Boeing delivery troubles.

And the exact model sequence — -10, -9, -8 — is subject to change because -10s can't be delivered if -10s aren't yet certified. So if there are certification delays the -10s will be back-loaded in the delivery schedule. If -10 certification moves along, they'll start appearing sooner.

That wasn't John Rotiman - that was Gerry Laderman.
 
User avatar
calpsafltskeds
Posts: 3499
Joined: Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:29 am

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Sat Apr 23, 2022 2:25 pm

737 Paint:
73G N54711 sked to enter AMA 2734/23Apr for EvoBlu livery
739 N78448 sked to exit AMA 2735/23Apr in EvoBlu livery
 
Cmac787
Posts: 441
Joined: Fri Oct 27, 2017 5:15 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 12:46 am

777
N217UA is scheduled to exit ROW storage and ferry to XMN for MX F2712/24Apr
 
sea13
Posts: 164
Joined: Thu Jan 27, 2022 10:58 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 10:48 am

calpsafltskeds wrote:
737 Paint:
73G N54711 sked to enter AMA 2734/23Apr for EvoBlu livery
739 N78448 sked to exit AMA 2735/23Apr in EvoBlu livery


It seems that it’s taking a while for UA to paint their planes onto the new livery.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 11169
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 12:25 pm

adamblang wrote:
The words out of Scott Kirby's mouth on the YouTube video up the thread are
  • It's either going to be 100 A350 or 0
  • The Rolls Royce engine penalties aren't such a big deal — a one-time penalty would be well worth it to save 20-30 years of split fleet costs


As a point of reference, DL wrote down the 777/77Ls to the tune of $1.4 Billion to get rid of a split 777/A350 fleet, when the 77Ls were 10-12 years old, and the 777s already twenty. Split fleets are inefficient in pilot labor, and widebodies have some senior $$$ labor.
 
Scarebus34
Posts: 833
Joined: Tue Feb 12, 2019 10:54 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 3:09 pm

sea13 wrote:
calpsafltskeds wrote:
737 Paint:
73G N54711 sked to enter AMA 2734/23Apr for EvoBlu livery
739 N78448 sked to exit AMA 2735/23Apr in EvoBlu livery


It seems that it’s taking a while for UA to paint their planes onto the new livery.


Not sure where you have been the past 2.5 years but there was this little thing called Covid which led to financial instability.

The new livery is not a re-branding - therefore they are only getting repainted as needed or when they were originally due for paint.
 
User avatar
STT757
Posts: 14774
Joined: Tue Mar 28, 2000 1:14 am

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 4:07 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
adamblang wrote:
The words out of Scott Kirby's mouth on the YouTube video up the thread are
  • It's either going to be 100 A350 or 0
  • The Rolls Royce engine penalties aren't such a big deal — a one-time penalty would be well worth it to save 20-30 years of split fleet costs


As a point of reference, DL wrote down the 777/77Ls to the tune of $1.4 Billion to get rid of a split 777/A350 fleet, when the 77Ls were 10-12 years old, and the 777s already twenty. Split fleets are inefficient in pilot labor, and widebodies have some senior $$$ labor.


What about narrow body fleets?

Current United Fleet:

A319, A320, 737-700, 737-800, 737-900, 737-900ER, 757-200, 757-300, 767-300, 767-400, 77A, 772ER Pratt, 772ER GE, 77W, 788, 789, 78J

Potential future fleet:

A220-100, A220-300, 737-800, 737-900ER, 737-8MAX, 737-9MAX, 737-10MAX, A321 NEO, A321 XLR, 787-8, 789, 78J, 77W

Convert the A350 order for an order of A220s to replace A319s, 737-700s and some Regional flying. Also order additional A321NEOs to replace 757-300s and A321XLRs to replace some 767-300s. Retire the A319s, A320s, 737-700s, 737-900 (non ERs), 757s, 767s and 777-200s. Order additional 788s, 789s to replace 767-300s and 767-400s. Order 787-10s to replace 777-200As, and 787-10ERs to replace 777-200ERs.
 
MDC862
Posts: 107
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 2:12 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 4:51 pm

How many times has UA senior management said there will not be the A220 series at UA?

A-netters need to face reality and move on.
 
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calpsafltskeds
Posts: 3499
Joined: Tue Dec 19, 2006 1:29 am

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 5:46 pm

Much of UA's fleet is getting pretty old. Dodging the 220 issue, unsure what the seat size between 76 and 140 should be.
Maybe UA's fleet should be more like:

Narrow body Phase-out in order of age:
752s, 320s, 73G, 319, older 738s, 753s, 739non-ER
Replace with:
752 with 321XLR, 320s with 38M, 73G & 319 with 37M, 738 with 38M & 39M, 753 with 321, 739non-ER with 39M when they time out - plenty of markets to fly them until they are too old.
NOTE: 37M has a row or 2 more than the 319. More seats are probably economical for system growth.

Wide Body Phase-out in order of age: 763, 772A, 772
Replacement could be based on potential Middle of the market aircraft:
763 with 321XLR, Middle of Market and 788
772A with probably current 78X
772 with 789 & 78X-ER or possibly 359

Unless there's a middle-of-the-market aircraft, UA should look at possibly more 321XLR and 788 units for the smaller WB markets. Trade the 359s for more 321XLRs? Sign up for a 78X-ER when available.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 11169
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 6:10 pm

STT757 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
adamblang wrote:
The words out of Scott Kirby's mouth on the YouTube video up the thread are
  • It's either going to be 100 A350 or 0
  • The Rolls Royce engine penalties aren't such a big deal — a one-time penalty would be well worth it to save 20-30 years of split fleet costs


As a point of reference, DL wrote down the 777/77Ls to the tune of $1.4 Billion to get rid of a split 777/A350 fleet, when the 77Ls were 10-12 years old, and the 777s already twenty. Split fleets are inefficient in pilot labor, and widebodies have some senior $$$ labor.


What about narrow body fleets?

Current United Fleet:

A319, A320, 737-700, 737-800, 737-900, 737-900ER, 757-200, 757-300, 767-300, 767-400, 77A, 772ER Pratt, 772ER GE, 77W, 788, 789, 78J

Potential future fleet:

A220-100, A220-300, 737-800, 737-900ER, 737-8MAX, 737-9MAX, 737-10MAX, A321 NEO, A321 XLR, 787-8, 789, 78J, 77W

Convert the A350 order for an order of A220s to replace A319s, 737-700s and some Regional flying. Also order additional A321NEOs to replace 757-300s and A321XLRs to replace some 767-300s. Retire the A319s, A320s, 737-700s, 737-900 (non ERs), 757s, 767s and 777-200s. Order additional 788s, 789s to replace 767-300s and 767-400s. Order 787-10s to replace 777-200As, and 787-10ERs to replace 777-200ERs.


Big split narrowbody fleets with 300+ of this and 300+ of that really aren't inefficient (but WN might disagree with my assessment).

The problem DL faced was just eighteen 777/77L against 42 A330s, 37 330neos, and 44 359s. (I think my DL widebody projections have orders/leases behind them.)

Too many types, and too many bases per type, kills utilization of frames (presuming there are spares in each location, to support reliability) and pilots. Pilots who are paid but don't fly may be happy but it's profoundly uneconomic.

As for A220s, I don't believe UA has taken anything NEW smaller than a 738/7M8 since the merger. Maybe they'll reconsider that as CR2/E145 are upgauged to E75, leaving E75s to be upgauged to what? IMHO UA could do 75 7M7s just as easily as A220s and keep type commonality. Further IMHO, a lot of the 319s and 737-700s should be prime for upgauging to 7M8s, anyway.
 
RMTAviation
Posts: 125
Joined: Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:54 pm

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Sun Apr 24, 2022 8:16 pm

Anybody know which United planes have the colorful moodlighting (like Purple, Green, red, etc)?
 
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RyanairGuru
Posts: 9126
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 3:59 am

Re: United Airlines Fleet Thread - 2022

Mon Apr 25, 2022 2:11 am

Way back in 2019 United said that aircraft would be repainted into the new livery when they go through recurrent repainting, the intention was never to take aircraft out of service just to be repainted. Repaints did slow down in 2020 and 2021, so they are slightly behind where they would be without Covid, but this was always going to be an ~8 year process. Complaining that the fleet isn’t repainted after 3 years is ignoring their stated intention, even without Covid.

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