Of note on the
earnings call this morning:
New India and Africa traffic is expected to make up for lost southeast Asia traffic. (Which I don't think is new, but was reiterated.)
Business travel is fluid. After Delta before Omicron business travel was more or less back. It's way down again. It looks like business travelers are right now booking further out again implying folks are back in planes after Omicron settles down, maybe mid-February. Cancellation rates are back down to 2019 levels implying travelers are getting confidence about post-Omicron travel.
The small market exits are entirely regional pilot shortage. There are probably a few more communities that will be removed from the network. The regional pilot shortage is accelerating changes that would've happened as part of the United Next program — the markets getting cut would not have supported larger gauge so would've probably been cut in the near future anyway. Conversely, there are some markets that will see fewer flights with bigger aircraft.
Tech traffic to Asia was explicitly asked by an analyst — When demand returns, United will be back. Right now, those aircraft will be redeployed elsewhere. Andrew Nocella used "years" rather than "months" in his answer. But he also pointed out that competitors have disappeared from markets or significantly reduced capacity which may be an opening for United to return more quickly with larger gauge than others are able to.
The grounded 777s represent 10% of normal ASM capacity. And those will be all flying again by Q4.