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The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Jan 01, 2022 7:21 am

Welcome to the the Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread 2022. Please continue to post your news and your discussion below.

Link to previous thread:

The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2021
 
Midwestfly
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 1:07 pm

Sad to see United exit both Lansing and Kalamazoo.
 
KarlB737
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:04 pm

Midwestfly wrote:
Sad to see United exit both Lansing and Kalamazoo.


Both of those markets are perceived to be too weak to support the air service.
 
jplatts
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:11 pm

KarlB737 wrote:
Midwestfly wrote:
Sad to see United exit both Lansing and Kalamazoo.


Both of those markets are perceived to be too weak to support the air service.


LAN is near FNT (which still has UA service), and AZO is near GRR (which still has UA service).

Both FNT and GRR also have service on G4 (plus F9 and WN also serving GRR in addition to the US3 and G4).
 
SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:16 pm

jplatts wrote:
KarlB737 wrote:
Midwestfly wrote:
Sad to see United exit both Lansing and Kalamazoo.


Both of those markets are perceived to be too weak to support the air service.


LAN is near FNT (which still has UA service), and AZO is near GRR (which still has UA service).

Both FNT and GRR also have service on G4 (plus F9 and WN also serving GRR in addition to the US3 and G4).


It’s weird because at first they said it was due to lack of demand (even though most of the cities they were stopping had full planes) and then a month later they said it was due to pilot shortages. Wonder which it actually is :lol:
 
KarlB737
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 5:24 pm

jplatts wrote:
Both FNT and GRR also have service on G4 (plus F9 and WN also serving GRR in addition to the US3 and G4).


Clearly FNT and GRR are attracting more fliers to the extent that they have attracted additional airlines whereas AZO and LAN have not.
 
drdisque
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:10 pm

KarlB737 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Both FNT and GRR also have service on G4 (plus F9 and WN also serving GRR in addition to the US3 and G4).


Clearly FNT and GRR are attracting more fliers to the extent that they have attracted additional airlines whereas AZO and LAN have not.


LAN even had G4 and SY and lost them due to poor performance. AZO hasn't really had a fair shake at a ULCC - their only one was Direct Air.
 
freakyrat
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 7:47 pm

AZO is to close to G4 service at SBN which also has a longer runway.
 
airtran737
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:05 pm

I really think that LAN is in a precarious position. They make their money on the winter charter flying and as soon as GRR opens is customs facility I believe you will see a lot of that flying migrate over there. That will leave LAN with limited RJ flying and the UPS operation. It will be hard for the airport to make ends meet without significant grant money.
 
SkyVoice
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 05, 2022 5:53 am

airtran737 wrote:
I really think that LAN is in a precarious position. They make their money on the winter charter flying and as soon as GRR opens is customs facility I believe you will see a lot of that flying migrate over there. That will leave LAN with limited RJ flying and the UPS operation. It will be hard for the airport to make ends meet without significant grant money.


Speaking of which, and there may not be a rush on this due to the pandemic, but when is the FIS at GRR scheduled to open?
 
Midwestfly
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 05, 2022 10:34 am

The trip from Lansing to Detroit is over 90 minutes, FNT does not have Delta service. GRR isn’t an awful option but it’s a poor option in the winter. I certainly understand the economics each of these companies face it’s terrible for Lansing as a whole as a state capital, and home to a massive R1 University. Good air service could doom any additional growth for the region that needs it.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:06 pm

Midwestfly wrote:
The trip from Lansing to Detroit is over 90 minutes, FNT does not have Delta service. GRR isn’t an awful option but it’s a poor option in the winter. I certainly understand the economics each of these companies face it’s terrible for Lansing as a whole as a state capital, and home to a massive R1 University. Good air service could doom any additional growth for the region that needs it.


LAN has good air service - it's 4x to DTW, for those who don't want to drive on relatively uncrowded, toll-free Interstate. U of M is in the top tier of R&D spending by U.S. universities; MSU is not. It doesn't spend half of what U of M does.

https://ncsesdata.nsf.gov/profiles/site ... ce&ds=herd
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 05, 2022 2:45 pm

I suspect the AA will resume ORD-LAN service, once more business-related travel resumes. They are still flying LAN-DCA, and I doubt they would keep the station for a single flight to DCA, other than political reasons.
DL won't pull out of LAN for political reasons.

The airport like said has UPS, on-demand/ad-hoc automotive industry cargo flights, the State Police Aviaition unit, MDOT aviation unit, and a pretty healthy amount of GA traffic.

The reality is LAN just has a super small catchment area that is hemmed-in on all sides by FNT, GRR, & DTW. I mean even for residents in Okemos, where a good portion for the wealth resides in the region, its about 20 minute drive to LAN or a 40 minute straight shot down I-69 to FNT.
This is in a region of the state that is the home of the automotive industry where every is accustom to driving everywhere.
 
drdisque
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:21 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
I suspect the AA will resume ORD-LAN service, once more business-related travel resumes. They are still flying LAN-DCA, and I doubt they would keep the station for a single flight to DCA, other than political reasons.
DL won't pull out of LAN for political reasons.

The airport like said has UPS, on-demand/ad-hoc automotive industry cargo flights, the State Police Aviaition unit, MDOT aviation unit, and a pretty healthy amount of GA traffic.

The reality is LAN just has a super small catchment area that is hemmed-in on all sides by FNT, GRR, & DTW. I mean even for residents in Okemos, where a good portion for the wealth resides in the region, its about 20 minute drive to LAN or a 40 minute straight shot down I-69 to FNT.
This is in a region of the state that is the home of the automotive industry where every is accustom to driving everywhere.


AA is currently operating LAN-ORD.

The loss to LAN of 1-2 RJ's per day on a route that is served by another airline isn't catastrophic.

It's the cumulative losses that will now have LAN down to something like 300-350 seats per day that are the big thing.
 
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tjwgrr
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 05, 2022 3:25 pm

SkyVoice wrote:
Speaking of which, and there may not be a rush on this due to the pandemic, but when is the FIS at GRR scheduled to open?


I've been told the terminal addition that will house the FIS has been completed, but construction on the sterile corridor from B2 to the FIS has not yet started.
 
NoahV37
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Jan 15, 2022 1:04 am

These are the top unserved markets from GRR in Q3 2021
Seattle- 164
San Francisco- 144
San Diego- 98
Salt Lake City- 87
Raleigh- 68
San Antonio- 54
Sacramento- 53
Kansas City- 51
Charleston- 45
Bozeman- 41

Of these, I think G4 could fly to OAK, SAN, CHS, and maybe SAT. I don't see any other airlines attempting any of these.
 
FCOTSTW
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Jan 15, 2022 2:47 pm

HAve not really done any research, but has anyone news about a possible return of DL to FNT?
 
jetlanta
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Jan 15, 2022 3:45 pm

FCOTSTW wrote:
HAve not really done any research, but has anyone news about a possible return of DL to FNT?


At this point, the question should really be what kind of ULCC growth can FNT enjoy in the coming years?
 
kavok
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:48 pm

NoahV37 wrote:
These are the top unserved markets from GRR in Q3 2021
Seattle- 164
San Francisco- 144
San Diego- 98
Salt Lake City- 87
Raleigh- 68
San Antonio- 54
Sacramento- 53
Kansas City- 51
Charleston- 45
Bozeman- 41

Of these, I think G4 could fly to OAK, SAN, CHS, and maybe SAT. I don't see any other airlines attempting any of these.


Once the new terminal is completed in SLC, I could see GRR-SLC. Lots of DL frequent flyers in West Michigan, and SLC could also facilitate good connections to a lot of Pacific Time Zone cities on that list.
 
rampantfox
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:45 am

NoahV37 wrote:
These are the top unserved markets from GRR in Q3 2021
Seattle- 164
San Francisco- 144
San Diego- 98
Salt Lake City- 87
Raleigh- 68
San Antonio- 54
Sacramento- 53
Kansas City- 51
Charleston- 45
Bozeman- 41

Of these, I think G4 could fly to OAK, SAN, CHS, and maybe SAT. I don't see any other airlines attempting any of these.


You won’t see much G4 growth out of GRR until the new A Concourse extension is complete. On quite a few days G4 is maxed out on their 3 gates. It’s dropped off significantly as we are in the post holiday pre-spring break lull.
 
rampantfox
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Sun Jan 16, 2022 2:51 am

Talked with a couple of CBP Officers at GRR today, they were in to clear and Amway flight as well as a G4 ferry from YRQ, and they said as there isn’t a rush to complete the FIS facility because they don’t have the manpower to staff it and/or process a full commercial airline. Apparently all the hiring is focused on the Southern States.
 
airway1
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:35 am

Just a note on Lansing although Michigan State is located in East Lansing 86% of the student population are local Michiganders. Plus the Michigan flyer bus service is cheap and direct to Detroit airport. Other airports are a hassle for students to get too. Plus prices out of Lansing are not cheap compared to Detroit
 
mikejepp
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Jan 18, 2022 1:44 pm

Are there any Michigan airports in danger of losing air service completely? CIU, CMX, APN, PLN?
 
kavok
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:23 pm

airway1 wrote:
Just a note on Lansing although Michigan State is located in East Lansing 86% of the student population are local Michiganders. Plus the Michigan flyer bus service is cheap and direct to Detroit airport. Other airports are a hassle for students to get too. Plus prices out of Lansing are not cheap compared to Detroit


This is true, but depending on flight schedules, the Michigan flyer bus doesn’t work, or is risky. The last bus of the night leaves DTW at 8:15/8:30pm, and there are a lot of flights arriving at 8pm or later. Further, if the flight is delayed a bit, the bus pax are stuck in DTW overnight or have an expensive Uber ride, and no refund on the bus ticket.

The biggest issue at LAN is the passenger base is very heavily comprised of government trips and university staff/researchers (not so much students), and both of those groups (especially government) have yet to see their travels pick back up yet.
 
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rangercarp
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:36 pm

NoahV37 wrote:
These are the top unserved markets from GRR in Q3 2021
Seattle- 164
San Francisco- 144
San Diego- 98
Salt Lake City- 87
.

Is this daily passengers one way, or daily passengers in both directions? Assuming this is one way numbers, it seems like SEA on DL or AS and SFO on UA could work. SLC on DL also a possibility. If those passenger numbers must be divided in half it looks a lot less attractive.
 
SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Jan 18, 2022 4:58 pm

mikejepp wrote:
Are there any Michigan airports in danger of losing air service completely? CIU, CMX, APN, PLN?



None of those airports are, they are all part of the essential air service program. They get government money so that they can’t end service.
 
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tjwgrr
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Jan 18, 2022 5:10 pm

mikejepp wrote:
Are there any Michigan airports in danger of losing air service completely? CIU, CMX, APN, PLN?


APN, ESC, CMX, IMT, IWD, MBL, MKG, PLN, CIU, are all MI EAS cities, so as long as they meet the enplanement minimums, or the requirements change, those cities will likely continue to retain air service.

My brother-in-law flew ORD-MKG this past Saturday and he was one of eight pax..... yikes! But loads into MKG from late spring through early fall are much better which I suspect many of the Michigan EAS cities experience as well.
 
kavok
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Jan 18, 2022 6:40 pm

tjwgrr wrote:
mikejepp wrote:
Are there any Michigan airports in danger of losing air service completely? CIU, CMX, APN, PLN?


APN, ESC, CMX, IMT, IWD, MBL, MKG, PLN, CIU, are all MI EAS cities, so as long as they meet the enplanement minimums, or the requirements change, those cities will likely continue to retain air service.

My brother-in-law flew ORD-MKG this past Saturday and he was one of eight pax..... yikes! But loads into MKG from late spring through early fall are much better which I suspect many of the Michigan EAS cities experience as well.


I do wonder though… A few of United’s EAS (operated by OO) flights to PBG and OGS have just been dropped. Those markets have approached AA (and I assume DL) to see if they are willing to pick up the EAS contract, but given the scarcity of CRJs and crews to fly RJs, I doubt they’ll have any takers from AA and DL (or their respective regional jet operations).

The EAS money will remain, but these airports are probably looking at non-legacy affiliated small seat operations going forward. We see that at OWD and MBL currently, and I wonder if other small Michigan airports may be at risk of a similar fate.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:45 pm

Yep....that is a big question mark facing a lot of these EAS markets within the next couple of year as CR2s approach end-of-life and start their final phase-out.
OO / Skywest has the majority of the CR2 EAS flying, and they have found it viable to do however it will be interesting to see to what extent they continue to rebid on some of these in the future. We have recently seen how pilot shortages have led to route cuts at DL and UA recently. OO / Skywest dropped a number of "at-risk" routes out of SLC, stuff like GJT that had been around for 30 years, so they could staff their capacity-purchase and EAS-subsidized contractual flying.

Some of those are certainty going to transition to non-legacy branded small operations.
I do think that PLN, CIU, and CMX are the least "at-risk" of losing legacy branded service.
PLN actually sees flying well above the EAS minimum in the summer months when demand spikes with all of the seasonal residents in the region, and associated VFR and tourism increases. PLN is subsidized for 10 weekly CR2 departures (500 seats), but in the summer sees upwards of 28 weekly flights (1,400+ seats) and gets upgauged to CR9s at time.
 
NoahV37
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Jan 18, 2022 8:46 pm

rangercarp wrote:
NoahV37 wrote:
These are the top unserved markets from GRR in Q3 2021
Seattle- 164
San Francisco- 144
San Diego- 98
Salt Lake City- 87
.

Is this daily passengers one way, or daily passengers in both directions? Assuming this is one way numbers, it seems like SEA on DL or AS and SFO on UA could work. SLC on DL also a possibility. If those passenger numbers must be divided in half it looks a lot less attractive.

I didn’t divide it, so it is both ways combined.
 
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rangercarp
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 19, 2022 2:12 pm

NoahV37 wrote:
I didn’t divide it, so it is both ways combined.


Okay, that makes any of those adds quite a stretch, especially considering the long stage length, proximity of GRR to major hubs, and the ample connecting opportunities in between.
 
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tjwgrr
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 19, 2022 3:29 pm

rangercarp wrote:
NoahV37 wrote:
I didn’t divide it, so it is both ways combined.


Okay, that makes any of those adds quite a stretch, especially considering the long stage length, proximity of GRR to major hubs, and the ample connecting opportunities in between.


I could see a legacy carrier start GRR-BOS at some point. IMO, Allegiant 2x per week barely qualifies as service from GRR.
 
SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:00 pm

A Korean Air BBJ landed at Kalamazoo this morning from IND, spent not even 40min at AZO and then went onto Detroit.

Anyone know what the reasoning for this might be?
 
DiamondFlyer
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:07 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Yep....that is a big question mark facing a lot of these EAS markets within the next couple of year as CR2s approach end-of-life and start their final phase-out.
OO / Skywest has the majority of the CR2 EAS flying, and they have found it viable to do however it will be interesting to see to what extent they continue to rebid on some of these in the future. We have recently seen how pilot shortages have led to route cuts at DL and UA recently. OO / Skywest dropped a number of "at-risk" routes out of SLC, stuff like GJT that had been around for 30 years, so they could staff their capacity-purchase and EAS-subsidized contractual flying.

Some of those are certainty going to transition to non-legacy branded small operations.
I do think that PLN, CIU, and CMX are the least "at-risk" of losing legacy branded service.
PLN actually sees flying well above the EAS minimum in the summer months when demand spikes with all of the seasonal residents in the region, and associated VFR and tourism increases. PLN is subsidized for 10 weekly CR2 departures (500 seats), but in the summer sees upwards of 28 weekly flights (1,400+ seats) and gets upgauged to CR9s at time.


You're going to run out of crews to operate the CR2 long, long before the airframes are uneconomical to fly. I'd be shocked if any of the Delta Connection EAS in Michigan is still Delta Connection in 2025. Maybe sooner than that.
 
CALMSP
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:09 pm

tjwgrr wrote:
rangercarp wrote:
NoahV37 wrote:
I didn’t divide it, so it is both ways combined.


Okay, that makes any of those adds quite a stretch, especially considering the long stage length, proximity of GRR to major hubs, and the ample connecting opportunities in between.


I could see a legacy carrier start GRR-BOS at some point. IMO, Allegiant 2x per week barely qualifies as service from GRR.


I would imagine an E75 with DL would be on the horizon. Especially during the summer months.
 
kavok
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 19, 2022 4:44 pm

tjwgrr wrote:
rangercarp wrote:
NoahV37 wrote:
I didn’t divide it, so it is both ways combined.


Okay, that makes any of those adds quite a stretch, especially considering the long stage length, proximity of GRR to major hubs, and the ample connecting opportunities in between.


I could see a legacy carrier start GRR-BOS at some point. IMO, Allegiant 2x per week barely qualifies as service from GRR.


GRR-BOS is a complicated scenario.

Delta would prefer pax use GRR-DTW-BOS, as pax demand isnt high enough to justify using a mainline narrowbody on GRR-BOS currently. And while the demand may be there for a RJ flight, given the scarcity of crews and RJ planes, the opportunity cost is too high. There are other routes DL would far prefer to use a scarce RJ on than BOS-GRR.

UA is obviously not going to fly GRR-BOS.

That leaves AA/B6. If AA/B6 launched GRR-BOS, Delta would respond and capacity match it. Given the much higher percentage of DL frequent flyers in GRR (relative to B6/AA), and that the higher % of point of sale would also be West Michigan based, AA/B6 would be at a decent competitive disadvantage against DL should both compete on the route.

Summary: DL doesn’t want to fly GRR-BOS, and only would if AA/B6 did. AA/B6 knows if they launched the route, DL would too, and AA/B6 couldn’t compete. So no legacy flies it, for now at least.
 
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tjwgrr
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:06 pm

kavok wrote:
tjwgrr wrote:
rangercarp wrote:

Okay, that makes any of those adds quite a stretch, especially considering the long stage length, proximity of GRR to major hubs, and the ample connecting opportunities in between.


I could see a legacy carrier start GRR-BOS at some point. IMO, Allegiant 2x per week barely qualifies as service from GRR.


GRR-BOS is a complicated scenario.

Delta would prefer pax use GRR-DTW-BOS, as pax demand isnt high enough to justify using a mainline narrowbody on GRR-BOS currently. And while the demand may be there for a RJ flight, given the scarcity of crews and RJ planes, the opportunity cost is too high. There are other routes DL would far prefer to use a scarce RJ on than BOS-GRR.

UA is obviously not going to fly GRR-BOS.

That leaves AA/B6. If AA/B6 launched GRR-BOS, Delta would respond and capacity match it. Given the much higher percentage of DL frequent flyers in GRR (relative to B6/AA), and that the higher % of point of sale would also be West Michigan based, AA/B6 would be at a decent competitive disadvantage against DL should both compete on the route.

Summary: DL doesn’t want to fly GRR-BOS, and only would if AA/B6 did. AA/B6 knows if they launched the route, DL would too, and AA/B6 couldn’t compete. So no legacy flies it, for now at least.


I know NYC is a bigger market, but I don't see that much difference between DL's 2x daily CR9 to LGA vs BOS other than the fact there's non-stop competition from UA into EWR. I guess that brings up the question, if UA dropped GRR-EWR, would DL drop GRR-LGA?
 
MIflyer12
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:12 pm

kavok wrote:
Summary: DL doesn’t want to fly GRR-BOS, and only would if AA/B6 did.


Two carriers on such a thin route just guarantees they both lose money, through lousy load factors and/or yields. If (as you assert) AA thinks DL will start and sustain service in response, AA has no reason to start it.
 
kavok
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Wed Jan 19, 2022 5:32 pm

tjwgrr wrote:
kavok wrote:
tjwgrr wrote:

I could see a legacy carrier start GRR-BOS at some point. IMO, Allegiant 2x per week barely qualifies as service from GRR.


GRR-BOS is a complicated scenario.

Delta would prefer pax use GRR-DTW-BOS, as pax demand isnt high enough to justify using a mainline narrowbody on GRR-BOS currently. And while the demand may be there for a RJ flight, given the scarcity of crews and RJ planes, the opportunity cost is too high. There are other routes DL would far prefer to use a scarce RJ on than BOS-GRR.

UA is obviously not going to fly GRR-BOS.

That leaves AA/B6. If AA/B6 launched GRR-BOS, Delta would respond and capacity match it. Given the much higher percentage of DL frequent flyers in GRR (relative to B6/AA), and that the higher % of point of sale would also be West Michigan based, AA/B6 would be at a decent competitive disadvantage against DL should both compete on the route.

Summary: DL doesn’t want to fly GRR-BOS, and only would if AA/B6 did. AA/B6 knows if they launched the route, DL would too, and AA/B6 couldn’t compete. So no legacy flies it, for now at least.


I know NYC is a bigger market, but I don't see that much difference between DL's 2x daily CR9 to LGA vs BOS other than the fact there's non-stop competition from UA into EWR. I guess that brings up the question, if UA dropped GRR-EWR, would DL drop GRR-LGA?


The difference from BOS is that the NYC market can profitably support both DL/UA operations to GRR, partially aided by more connection opportunities.

Especially at EWR, UA can offer many onward connections (including unique international ones) that, when coupled with the local NYC/NewJersey O/D, the GRR flight is successful.
 
SyracuseAvGeek
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:23 pm

On Kalamazoo Airports social media page, they basically asked “who wants breeze to fly to Kalamazoo and who would use it?”.

Although not in Michigan, Roanoke did the exact same thing on the same day.

First, it’s odd that they both did that on the same day.

And secondly, does anyone else think this could actually be a thing for Kalamazoo? Obviously no one here knows the exact answer, but I’d like to hear what people think about this?
 
drdisque
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Thu Jan 27, 2022 3:43 pm

AZO probably would be a good option for Breeze since they don't have to compete directly with any other ULCC's there and it's unlikely that you'd see much response from AA or DL. It also has a decently large catchment area but one that currently leaks like hell to DTW, GRR, and SBN.

I'm curious what the destinations would be though. TPA is probably the most likely but beyond that I don't know what Breeze markets would have enough demand to warrant service. MSY and CHS would probably be the next 2 in line but they might be a bit of a stretch, although neither has service from anywhere in West Michigan/Northern Indiana so that would help the case somewhat.
 
WA707atMSP
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Thu Jan 27, 2022 5:04 pm

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:
Yep....that is a big question mark facing a lot of these EAS markets within the next couple of year as CR2s approach end-of-life and start their final phase-out.
OO / Skywest has the majority of the CR2 EAS flying, and they have found it viable to do however it will be interesting to see to what extent they continue to rebid on some of these in the future. We have recently seen how pilot shortages have led to route cuts at DL and UA recently. OO / Skywest dropped a number of "at-risk" routes out of SLC, stuff like GJT that had been around for 30 years, so they could staff their capacity-purchase and EAS-subsidized contractual flying.

Some of those are certainty going to transition to non-legacy branded small operations.
I do think that PLN, CIU, and CMX are the least "at-risk" of losing legacy branded service.
PLN actually sees flying well above the EAS minimum in the summer months when demand spikes with all of the seasonal residents in the region, and associated VFR and tourism increases. PLN is subsidized for 10 weekly CR2 departures (500 seats), but in the summer sees upwards of 28 weekly flights (1,400+ seats) and gets upgauged to CR9s at time.


I think IMT and IWD are both safe, too, because these cities are so remote. If Sky West were to drop IMT, this would be a natural route for Cape Air to pick up.
 
NoahV37
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:09 pm

Allegiant announced FNT-SAV flight starting in April.
 
drdisque
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:31 pm

NoahV37 wrote:
Allegiant announced FNT-SAV flight starting in April.


I think this route will do quite well. This is real fare stimulation as it's not a route that's already available on an LCC/ULCC from DTW.
 
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tjwgrr
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:48 pm

WA707atMSP wrote:
I think IMT and IWD are both safe, too, because these cities are so remote. If Sky West were to drop IMT, this would be a natural route for Cape Air to pick up.


I see Denver Air Connection (Key Lime Air) is operating IWD-ORD with the E145 and IWD-MSP with the J328. Wasn't Air Choice One operating those routes with C208s up until recently?
 
NoahV37
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:15 pm

tjwgrr wrote:
WA707atMSP wrote:
I think IMT and IWD are both safe, too, because these cities are so remote. If Sky West were to drop IMT, this would be a natural route for Cape Air to pick up.


I see Denver Air Connection (Key Lime Air) is operating IWD-ORD with the E145 and IWD-MSP with the J328. Wasn't Air Choice One operating those routes with C208s up until recently?

Boutique actually took over IWD in April 2020, but the contract got suspended due to some issues in May 2021. Denver Air Connection/Key Lime Air then took over.
 
SkyVoice
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:39 pm

Is the air service between Manistee County Blacker Airport (MBL) and Chicago Midway (MDW) still operating? And if so, who is operating it?
 
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tjwgrr
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:48 pm

SkyVoice wrote:
Is the air service between Manistee County Blacker Airport (MBL) and Chicago Midway (MDW) still operating? And if so, who is operating it?


Still being operated by Cape Air.
 
drdisque
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Joined: Mon Mar 26, 2007 9:57 am

Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:18 pm

tjwgrr wrote:
SkyVoice wrote:
Is the air service between Manistee County Blacker Airport (MBL) and Chicago Midway (MDW) still operating? And if so, who is operating it?


Still being operated by Cape Air.


It goes to O'Hare, not Midway.
 
SkyVoice
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Re: The Rest of Michigan Aviation Thread - 2022

Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:03 am

In another thread, Skywest has filed notice with the DOT to reduce EAS service to 18 markets. One of them happens to be Muskegon (MKG). Here is a link to that thread . . . viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1470027

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