Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
Midwestfly wrote:Sad to see United exit both Lansing and Kalamazoo.
KarlB737 wrote:Midwestfly wrote:Sad to see United exit both Lansing and Kalamazoo.
Both of those markets are perceived to be too weak to support the air service.
jplatts wrote:KarlB737 wrote:Midwestfly wrote:Sad to see United exit both Lansing and Kalamazoo.
Both of those markets are perceived to be too weak to support the air service.
LAN is near FNT (which still has UA service), and AZO is near GRR (which still has UA service).
Both FNT and GRR also have service on G4 (plus F9 and WN also serving GRR in addition to the US3 and G4).
jplatts wrote:Both FNT and GRR also have service on G4 (plus F9 and WN also serving GRR in addition to the US3 and G4).
KarlB737 wrote:jplatts wrote:Both FNT and GRR also have service on G4 (plus F9 and WN also serving GRR in addition to the US3 and G4).
Clearly FNT and GRR are attracting more fliers to the extent that they have attracted additional airlines whereas AZO and LAN have not.
airtran737 wrote:I really think that LAN is in a precarious position. They make their money on the winter charter flying and as soon as GRR opens is customs facility I believe you will see a lot of that flying migrate over there. That will leave LAN with limited RJ flying and the UPS operation. It will be hard for the airport to make ends meet without significant grant money.
Midwestfly wrote:The trip from Lansing to Detroit is over 90 minutes, FNT does not have Delta service. GRR isn’t an awful option but it’s a poor option in the winter. I certainly understand the economics each of these companies face it’s terrible for Lansing as a whole as a state capital, and home to a massive R1 University. Good air service could doom any additional growth for the region that needs it.
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:I suspect the AA will resume ORD-LAN service, once more business-related travel resumes. They are still flying LAN-DCA, and I doubt they would keep the station for a single flight to DCA, other than political reasons.
DL won't pull out of LAN for political reasons.
The airport like said has UPS, on-demand/ad-hoc automotive industry cargo flights, the State Police Aviaition unit, MDOT aviation unit, and a pretty healthy amount of GA traffic.
The reality is LAN just has a super small catchment area that is hemmed-in on all sides by FNT, GRR, & DTW. I mean even for residents in Okemos, where a good portion for the wealth resides in the region, its about 20 minute drive to LAN or a 40 minute straight shot down I-69 to FNT.
This is in a region of the state that is the home of the automotive industry where every is accustom to driving everywhere.
SkyVoice wrote:Speaking of which, and there may not be a rush on this due to the pandemic, but when is the FIS at GRR scheduled to open?
FCOTSTW wrote:HAve not really done any research, but has anyone news about a possible return of DL to FNT?
NoahV37 wrote:These are the top unserved markets from GRR in Q3 2021
Seattle- 164
San Francisco- 144
San Diego- 98
Salt Lake City- 87
Raleigh- 68
San Antonio- 54
Sacramento- 53
Kansas City- 51
Charleston- 45
Bozeman- 41
Of these, I think G4 could fly to OAK, SAN, CHS, and maybe SAT. I don't see any other airlines attempting any of these.
NoahV37 wrote:These are the top unserved markets from GRR in Q3 2021
Seattle- 164
San Francisco- 144
San Diego- 98
Salt Lake City- 87
Raleigh- 68
San Antonio- 54
Sacramento- 53
Kansas City- 51
Charleston- 45
Bozeman- 41
Of these, I think G4 could fly to OAK, SAN, CHS, and maybe SAT. I don't see any other airlines attempting any of these.
airway1 wrote:Just a note on Lansing although Michigan State is located in East Lansing 86% of the student population are local Michiganders. Plus the Michigan flyer bus service is cheap and direct to Detroit airport. Other airports are a hassle for students to get too. Plus prices out of Lansing are not cheap compared to Detroit
NoahV37 wrote:These are the top unserved markets from GRR in Q3 2021
Seattle- 164
San Francisco- 144
San Diego- 98
Salt Lake City- 87
.
mikejepp wrote:Are there any Michigan airports in danger of losing air service completely? CIU, CMX, APN, PLN?
mikejepp wrote:Are there any Michigan airports in danger of losing air service completely? CIU, CMX, APN, PLN?
tjwgrr wrote:mikejepp wrote:Are there any Michigan airports in danger of losing air service completely? CIU, CMX, APN, PLN?
APN, ESC, CMX, IMT, IWD, MBL, MKG, PLN, CIU, are all MI EAS cities, so as long as they meet the enplanement minimums, or the requirements change, those cities will likely continue to retain air service.
My brother-in-law flew ORD-MKG this past Saturday and he was one of eight pax..... yikes! But loads into MKG from late spring through early fall are much better which I suspect many of the Michigan EAS cities experience as well.
rangercarp wrote:NoahV37 wrote:These are the top unserved markets from GRR in Q3 2021
Seattle- 164
San Francisco- 144
San Diego- 98
Salt Lake City- 87
.
Is this daily passengers one way, or daily passengers in both directions? Assuming this is one way numbers, it seems like SEA on DL or AS and SFO on UA could work. SLC on DL also a possibility. If those passenger numbers must be divided in half it looks a lot less attractive.
NoahV37 wrote:I didn’t divide it, so it is both ways combined.
rangercarp wrote:NoahV37 wrote:I didn’t divide it, so it is both ways combined.
Okay, that makes any of those adds quite a stretch, especially considering the long stage length, proximity of GRR to major hubs, and the ample connecting opportunities in between.
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:Yep....that is a big question mark facing a lot of these EAS markets within the next couple of year as CR2s approach end-of-life and start their final phase-out.
OO / Skywest has the majority of the CR2 EAS flying, and they have found it viable to do however it will be interesting to see to what extent they continue to rebid on some of these in the future. We have recently seen how pilot shortages have led to route cuts at DL and UA recently. OO / Skywest dropped a number of "at-risk" routes out of SLC, stuff like GJT that had been around for 30 years, so they could staff their capacity-purchase and EAS-subsidized contractual flying.
Some of those are certainty going to transition to non-legacy branded small operations.
I do think that PLN, CIU, and CMX are the least "at-risk" of losing legacy branded service.
PLN actually sees flying well above the EAS minimum in the summer months when demand spikes with all of the seasonal residents in the region, and associated VFR and tourism increases. PLN is subsidized for 10 weekly CR2 departures (500 seats), but in the summer sees upwards of 28 weekly flights (1,400+ seats) and gets upgauged to CR9s at time.
tjwgrr wrote:rangercarp wrote:NoahV37 wrote:I didn’t divide it, so it is both ways combined.
Okay, that makes any of those adds quite a stretch, especially considering the long stage length, proximity of GRR to major hubs, and the ample connecting opportunities in between.
I could see a legacy carrier start GRR-BOS at some point. IMO, Allegiant 2x per week barely qualifies as service from GRR.
tjwgrr wrote:rangercarp wrote:NoahV37 wrote:I didn’t divide it, so it is both ways combined.
Okay, that makes any of those adds quite a stretch, especially considering the long stage length, proximity of GRR to major hubs, and the ample connecting opportunities in between.
I could see a legacy carrier start GRR-BOS at some point. IMO, Allegiant 2x per week barely qualifies as service from GRR.
kavok wrote:tjwgrr wrote:rangercarp wrote:
Okay, that makes any of those adds quite a stretch, especially considering the long stage length, proximity of GRR to major hubs, and the ample connecting opportunities in between.
I could see a legacy carrier start GRR-BOS at some point. IMO, Allegiant 2x per week barely qualifies as service from GRR.
GRR-BOS is a complicated scenario.
Delta would prefer pax use GRR-DTW-BOS, as pax demand isnt high enough to justify using a mainline narrowbody on GRR-BOS currently. And while the demand may be there for a RJ flight, given the scarcity of crews and RJ planes, the opportunity cost is too high. There are other routes DL would far prefer to use a scarce RJ on than BOS-GRR.
UA is obviously not going to fly GRR-BOS.
That leaves AA/B6. If AA/B6 launched GRR-BOS, Delta would respond and capacity match it. Given the much higher percentage of DL frequent flyers in GRR (relative to B6/AA), and that the higher % of point of sale would also be West Michigan based, AA/B6 would be at a decent competitive disadvantage against DL should both compete on the route.
Summary: DL doesn’t want to fly GRR-BOS, and only would if AA/B6 did. AA/B6 knows if they launched the route, DL would too, and AA/B6 couldn’t compete. So no legacy flies it, for now at least.
kavok wrote:Summary: DL doesn’t want to fly GRR-BOS, and only would if AA/B6 did.
tjwgrr wrote:kavok wrote:tjwgrr wrote:
I could see a legacy carrier start GRR-BOS at some point. IMO, Allegiant 2x per week barely qualifies as service from GRR.
GRR-BOS is a complicated scenario.
Delta would prefer pax use GRR-DTW-BOS, as pax demand isnt high enough to justify using a mainline narrowbody on GRR-BOS currently. And while the demand may be there for a RJ flight, given the scarcity of crews and RJ planes, the opportunity cost is too high. There are other routes DL would far prefer to use a scarce RJ on than BOS-GRR.
UA is obviously not going to fly GRR-BOS.
That leaves AA/B6. If AA/B6 launched GRR-BOS, Delta would respond and capacity match it. Given the much higher percentage of DL frequent flyers in GRR (relative to B6/AA), and that the higher % of point of sale would also be West Michigan based, AA/B6 would be at a decent competitive disadvantage against DL should both compete on the route.
Summary: DL doesn’t want to fly GRR-BOS, and only would if AA/B6 did. AA/B6 knows if they launched the route, DL would too, and AA/B6 couldn’t compete. So no legacy flies it, for now at least.
I know NYC is a bigger market, but I don't see that much difference between DL's 2x daily CR9 to LGA vs BOS other than the fact there's non-stop competition from UA into EWR. I guess that brings up the question, if UA dropped GRR-EWR, would DL drop GRR-LGA?
PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:Yep....that is a big question mark facing a lot of these EAS markets within the next couple of year as CR2s approach end-of-life and start their final phase-out.
OO / Skywest has the majority of the CR2 EAS flying, and they have found it viable to do however it will be interesting to see to what extent they continue to rebid on some of these in the future. We have recently seen how pilot shortages have led to route cuts at DL and UA recently. OO / Skywest dropped a number of "at-risk" routes out of SLC, stuff like GJT that had been around for 30 years, so they could staff their capacity-purchase and EAS-subsidized contractual flying.
Some of those are certainty going to transition to non-legacy branded small operations.
I do think that PLN, CIU, and CMX are the least "at-risk" of losing legacy branded service.
PLN actually sees flying well above the EAS minimum in the summer months when demand spikes with all of the seasonal residents in the region, and associated VFR and tourism increases. PLN is subsidized for 10 weekly CR2 departures (500 seats), but in the summer sees upwards of 28 weekly flights (1,400+ seats) and gets upgauged to CR9s at time.
NoahV37 wrote:Allegiant announced FNT-SAV flight starting in April.
WA707atMSP wrote:I think IMT and IWD are both safe, too, because these cities are so remote. If Sky West were to drop IMT, this would be a natural route for Cape Air to pick up.
tjwgrr wrote:WA707atMSP wrote:I think IMT and IWD are both safe, too, because these cities are so remote. If Sky West were to drop IMT, this would be a natural route for Cape Air to pick up.
I see Denver Air Connection (Key Lime Air) is operating IWD-ORD with the E145 and IWD-MSP with the J328. Wasn't Air Choice One operating those routes with C208s up until recently?
SkyVoice wrote:Is the air service between Manistee County Blacker Airport (MBL) and Chicago Midway (MDW) still operating? And if so, who is operating it?
tjwgrr wrote:SkyVoice wrote:Is the air service between Manistee County Blacker Airport (MBL) and Chicago Midway (MDW) still operating? And if so, who is operating it?
Still being operated by Cape Air.