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Polot
Posts: 13091
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2011 3:01 pm

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:37 pm

lightsaber wrote:
This gives Allegiant high flexibility in buying used too. A win-win if true. The MAX-200 would be perfect for G4. Their ancillary revenue needs more butts in seats. A few more seats will pay the cost difference.

:checkmark:

People are so focused on 7M7 vs A220 that they are completely missing that the news report said that that was only part of the order. I thinks it’s the larger Max family members that are giving the Max 7 an apparent edge. The A220 means maxing out at ~150-160 seats with that pilot group at the moment.

It’s a similar reason as to why Spirit opted for the A319neo over the A220.
 
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zkojq
Posts: 4925
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:38 pm

jbs2886 wrote:
Did Allegiant get a good deal? Very likely. But giving them away? That has no basis in reality.


So which MAX deals do you speculate that Boeing got good margins on then?
 
jbs2886
Posts: 3996
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:41 pm

zkojq wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Did Allegiant get a good deal? Very likely. But giving them away? That has no basis in reality.


So which MAX deals do you speculate that Boeing got good margins on then?


Knowing Allegiant’s capex profile, probably not a good margin, but that doesn’t mean they were “given away” and a “fire sale” price.

Go read Leeham’s new book, Airbus was regularly giving crazy deals. They wouldn’t have the A321neo now without that investment in deals. Boeing needs to build scale and market share, while also bringing in cash (revenue and profit), if it wants to be a contender.
 
wjcandee
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:42 pm

Polot wrote:
1) A big factor on the better reliability with the A320s is as a whole they are much newer than the MD-80s we’re with better support.
2) The public has long moved past questioning Allegiant safety. That was in the news cycle in what, 2018? They never had a crash to cement it in people’s memory.


Well...Allegiant itself (and its pilots) repeatedly have said it had to do with the diagnostics, etc. But support is of course key.

As to (2), wait until the pilot contract becomes amendable. The whole "safety" sledgehammer worked last time, so why not dust off that playbook again?
 
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Revelation
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:43 pm

Dutchy wrote:
these would have probably been produced in Mobile, US. Don't know if it is that much cheaper to have the production there then in Quebec, at least no additional charges to bring it into the country.

From what we read, the new pre-FAL at YMX will pre-stuff all the sections so every A220 will have substantial hand work done in Quebec. I guess that's what is best from the logistics point of view.
 
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sunking737
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:52 pm

Like my daddy said, "Don't believe it, unless its parked on the ramp, printed in the schedule....SUBJECT TO CHANGE ! "
 
majano
Posts: 459
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:45 am

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:52 pm

tphuang wrote:
Opus99 wrote:
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/exclusive-us-carrier-allegiant-air-buy-50-boeing-737-max-jets-sources-2022-01-04/

Article here.

737 max 7 seemed to have been pitted against the A220.

Max 7 was the choice.


Maybe Airbus could have won this one if their offering was a mixture of A220-300 and 500. They should think about it.

Can we please stop with this mystical all-conquering and unlaunnched A220-500?
 
SEU
Posts: 440
Joined: Wed Mar 13, 2019 7:21 pm

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:52 pm

Polot wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
This gives Allegiant high flexibility in buying used too. A win-win if true. The MAX-200 would be perfect for G4. Their ancillary revenue needs more butts in seats. A few more seats will pay the cost difference.

:checkmark:

People are so focused on 7M7 vs A220 that they are completely missing that the news report said that that was only part of the order. I thinks it’s the larger Max family members that are giving the Max 7 an apparent edge. The A220 means maxing out at ~150-160 seats with that pilot group at the moment.

It’s a similar reason as to why Spirit opted for the A319neo over the A220.


Yes, this is being overlooked

I am guessing A321neo is out of their price range so have had to look at alternatives. I can see a mix of -7, -8 and -10 for G4 if they eventually order the Max
 
JoseSalazar
Posts: 723
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:55 pm

wjcandee wrote:
Polot wrote:
1) A big factor on the better reliability with the A320s is as a whole they are much newer than the MD-80s we’re with better support.
2) The public has long moved past questioning Allegiant safety. That was in the news cycle in what, 2018? They never had a crash to cement it in people’s memory.


Well...Allegiant itself (and its pilots) repeatedly have said it had to do with the diagnostics, etc. But support is of course key.

As to (2), wait until the pilot contract becomes amendable. The whole "safety" sledgehammer worked last time, so why not dust off that playbook again?

It was a much larger issue last time. I know someone who left allegiant after 2 years and went back to a regional because he didn’t feel safe flying at allegiant anymore. He was an MD80 guy and said the Airbus side of the airline was much better from a maintenance as well as a training standpoint. They were legitimately worried about safety there at the time. Can’t imagine they will try to use that as a sledgehammer this go round when, as far as I know, it’s not really an issue. Pilot attraction/retention will likely be better leverage for them imo
 
sxf24
Posts: 1769
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:56 pm

SEU wrote:
Polot wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
This gives Allegiant high flexibility in buying used too. A win-win if true. The MAX-200 would be perfect for G4. Their ancillary revenue needs more butts in seats. A few more seats will pay the cost difference.

:checkmark:

People are so focused on 7M7 vs A220 that they are completely missing that the news report said that that was only part of the order. I thinks it’s the larger Max family members that are giving the Max 7 an apparent edge. The A220 means maxing out at ~150-160 seats with that pilot group at the moment.

It’s a similar reason as to why Spirit opted for the A319neo over the A220.


Yes, this is being overlooked

I am guessing A321neo is out of their price range so have had to look at alternatives. I can see a mix of -7, -8 and -10 for G4 if they eventually order the Max


A321neo is too big. Despite the current view here, not every market can be served profitably by an A220 and/or A321. Most single aisle airplanes are in the middle!
 
MEA-707
Posts: 3942
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:57 pm

Newark727 wrote:
Allegiant buying new planes? Next we'll have dogs and cats living together! Mass hysteria!

Don't do so dramatic, they bought 13 NEW A-320ceo's just a few years ago because Airbus offered them for a good price and they couldn't get good 2nd hand ones quick enough.
But indeed it's an interesting order, after KLM and Qantas it prooves again that an airline flying your narrowbody exclusively doesn't guaranty that they will buy your next product too.
 
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Revelation
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:58 pm

WaywardMemphian wrote:
So much for that A-Net trope about the added cost of a mixed fleet.

Who knows, Allegiant may end up all-Boeing by the end of this deal.

To me the bigger A-Net tropes were the ones suggesting MAX-7 would never go into production and that WN would buy A220 instead of MAX-7, despite WN's CEO telling us in direct language that A220 was only being considered out of a need to perform due diligence. I never understood the need for some to invest in that trope.
 
majano
Posts: 459
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:45 am

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:01 pm

Polot wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
This seems completely-nuts. Has Allegiant had a change of leadership recently? Does Maurice Gallagher have Alzheimer's or some other personality-altering disease? This is a complete-reversal of everything every airline he has been involved with has done. Moving to the A320 raised their reliability enormously, because of the predictive-maintenance/onboard-diagnostics stuff. Presumably, the MAX has something similar, but...seriously??? As if people weren't already worried (perhaps irrationally) about safety with Allegiant -- and they're getting the MAX?

"We digested and are running smoothly with the A320-series. So now we're going to take on a huge project to bring aboard another fleet, with all the training of the entire operation, from agents to maintenance to compliance, to FAs, to pilots." Why? That was so much fun we want to do it again? It's not like the market for used A320CEOs has dried up. Just weird.

But whatever. It's their company, and their fate.

1) A big factor on the better reliability with the A320s is as a whole they are much newer than the MD-80s we’re with better support.
.

You state this as fact without any support. Is this your opinion or are you able to back it up?
 
sxf24
Posts: 1769
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:03 pm

majano wrote:
Polot wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
This seems completely-nuts. Has Allegiant had a change of leadership recently? Does Maurice Gallagher have Alzheimer's or some other personality-altering disease? This is a complete-reversal of everything every airline he has been involved with has done. Moving to the A320 raised their reliability enormously, because of the predictive-maintenance/onboard-diagnostics stuff. Presumably, the MAX has something similar, but...seriously??? As if people weren't already worried (perhaps irrationally) about safety with Allegiant -- and they're getting the MAX?

"We digested and are running smoothly with the A320-series. So now we're going to take on a huge project to bring aboard another fleet, with all the training of the entire operation, from agents to maintenance to compliance, to FAs, to pilots." Why? That was so much fun we want to do it again? It's not like the market for used A320CEOs has dried up. Just weird.

But whatever. It's their company, and their fate.

1) A big factor on the better reliability with the A320s is as a whole they are much newer than the MD-80s we’re with better support.
.

You state this as fact without any support. Is this your opinion or are you able to back it up?


Are you asking for facts that newer, in-production airplanes are more reliable than older, out-of-production airplanes with a limited operator base?
 
32andBelow
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:06 pm

Duke91 wrote:
jbs2886 wrote:
Incredibly annoying all the preposterous comments that Boeing can only sell a MAX if it gave them away at fire sale prices. Did Allegiant get a good deal? Very likely. But giving them away? That has no basis in reality.


I mean, if they are not making any profit out of it, it is 'giving them away', unless you actually mean giving them away as for free. No, I actually think Boeing will receive some non-negative revenue from this deal.

I mean the years of support and parts has to count for something
 
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Revelation
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:07 pm

DarkSnowyNight wrote:
No. 220s are manufactured in Quebec and Mobile.

BBD had more problems than a jailhouse sex life, of which the 220 was hardly one of.

A220 production costs grow largely from vendor issues, which are being sorted. As well, production costs are also a function of volume delivered. You need to be reminded that when the 787 had only 186 units delivered, their margins v production were worse. Much.

With no major hold ups, and better than planned operational metrics, the cost issues with the 220 really are down to units delivered an variants available. Both of which are being addressed faster than BCA should ever be comfortable with.

I'd love to see a workshare break down between YMX and MOB. I'm pretty sure what goes to MOB now is more or less knock down kits that get made in YMX and their final assembly is done in MOB. I think the pre-FAL at YMX will make this trend even more definitive. I do think Airbus will push costs down on A220. As you say volume is another key driver. I think that will work in favor of the MAX-7 since it's just another 737 whereas A220 volume seems to at best be aiming for a quarter of A320 or 737 production.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:12 pm

How will they configure a potential MAX 7? 174 seats at 28" pitch? Maybe 150 seats with an extra wide seat and extra pitch section for a small premium.
 
bigb
Posts: 1733
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:30 pm

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:13 pm

majano wrote:
Polot wrote:
wjcandee wrote:
This seems completely-nuts. Has Allegiant had a change of leadership recently? Does Maurice Gallagher have Alzheimer's or some other personality-altering disease? This is a complete-reversal of everything every airline he has been involved with has done. Moving to the A320 raised their reliability enormously, because of the predictive-maintenance/onboard-diagnostics stuff. Presumably, the MAX has something similar, but...seriously??? As if people weren't already worried (perhaps irrationally) about safety with Allegiant -- and they're getting the MAX?

"We digested and are running smoothly with the A320-series. So now we're going to take on a huge project to bring aboard another fleet, with all the training of the entire operation, from agents to maintenance to compliance, to FAs, to pilots." Why? That was so much fun we want to do it again? It's not like the market for used A320CEOs has dried up. Just weird.

But whatever. It's their company, and their fate.

1) A big factor on the better reliability with the A320s is as a whole they are much newer than the MD-80s we’re with better support.
.

You state this as fact without any support. Is this your opinion or are you able to back it up?


It’s no secret that the once the Airbus got onto property at G4, safety and reliability improved damn near overnight. Especially after the “60 Minutes piece came out about them”.
 
majano
Posts: 459
Joined: Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:45 am

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:14 pm

sxf24 wrote:
majano wrote:
Polot wrote:
1) A big factor on the better reliability with the A320s is as a whole they are much newer than the MD-80s we’re with better support.
.

You state this as fact without any support. Is this your opinion or are you able to back it up?


Are you asking for facts that newer, in-production airplanes are more reliable than older, out-of-production airplanes with a limited operator base?

No, I am asking for back-up to the claim, which was made by user Polot by the way, that predictive maintenance and on board diagnostics were less factors to the reliability of Alegiant fleet.
 
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gatibosgru
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:19 pm

Nice win for both Boeing and G4. Wonder how many are for replacement and how many for expansion?
 
Opus99
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:22 pm

Everyone onTwitter is saying this is a huge win for Boeing

According to Jon Ostrower- at the Dubai airshow allegiant was seriously considering the a220-300
Last edited by Opus99 on Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Opus99
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:24 pm

Opus99 wrote:
Every ne onTwitter is saying this is a huge win for Boeing

According to Jon Ostrower- at the Dubai airshow allegiant was seriously considering the a220-300

https://twitter.com/leehamnews/status/1 ... 14848?s=21

https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 77349?s=21
 
cbphoto
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:26 pm

There is more to this order then just price as well. No doubt G4 got a great deal from Boeing, but time line is key to this order. The earliest G4 could get a NEO was the 2025/6 time frame and G4 needed something much sooner for their planned growth. With the current used CEO options, they would fall short on their growth plans.

I’m not sure why people are so shocked at the Max 7. It would likely be the 319 replacement and the 8200 would be the 186 seat 320 replacement. Again, it’s all speculation until the order is confirmed, but I’d bet the Max 7 is a small part of the over all order. And if it turns out to be true, I’d say the Airbus days at Allegiant are suddenly numbered.
 
Opus99
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:29 pm

It will be nice to see the -8200. More endorsement on its LCC favourability
 
TexasAirCorp
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:32 pm

Spat my drink out when I saw the title of this thread
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:34 pm

Jetport wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
Dutchy wrote:



No way of knowing, but it is likely the M7. Contrary to a.net meme, A220 production costs are not that atrocious, and they are being brought into line and will eventually drop further still. The M7 OTOH, will never see profitability.
+

The A220 production costs really are that atrocious. Considering the economies of scale and the fact that the MAX 7 is a simple shrink would indicate it should be significantly cheaper to make than the lower production, high cost A220. Have you forgotten the A220 drove the 3rd largest commercial aircraft maker out of the business? Have you forgotten the A220 is made in Quebec, with high labor costs, lots of regulations and ridiculous and costly language laws?


Airbus said last year that A220 deliveries didn't even cover variable cost, let alone mfg overhead, engineering overhead, SG&A, and profit. Zero contribution margin was the reference in Feb. 2021.
 
orlandocfi
Posts: 197
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:37 pm

DenverTed wrote:
How will they configure a potential MAX 7? 174 seats at 28" pitch? Maybe 150 seats with an extra wide seat and extra pitch section for a small premium.


The -7 is exit limited to 172. And I’m sure G4 will pack that many on!
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 11121
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:38 pm

I hope everyone realizes that Allegiant operates more narrowbodies than KLM + Transavia. All that crowing about KLM ordering Airbus... crow shall now be eaten.
 
Opus99
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:39 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
I hope everyone realizes that Allegiant operates more narrowbodies than KLM + Transavia. All that crowing about KLM ordering Airbus... crow shall now be eaten.

you lose some, you win some
 
jbs2886
Posts: 3996
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2015 9:07 pm

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:41 pm

cbphoto wrote:
There is more to this order then just price as well. No doubt G4 got a great deal from Boeing, but time line is key to this order. The earliest G4 could get a NEO was the 2025/6 time frame and G4 needed something much sooner for their planned growth. With the current used CEO options, they would fall short on their growth plans.

I’m not sure why people are so shocked at the Max 7. It would likely be the 319 replacement and the 8200 would be the 186 seat 320 replacement. Again, it’s all speculation until the order is confirmed, but I’d bet the Max 7 is a small part of the over all order. And if it turns out to be true, I’d say the Airbus days at Allegiant are suddenly numbered.


Except it’s very clear the competition wasn’t the NEO, it was the A220. That being said, I do think the timeline favored the MAX.
 
jbs2886
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:43 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
Jetport wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:
+

The A220 production costs really are that atrocious. Considering the economies of scale and the fact that the MAX 7 is a simple shrink would indicate it should be significantly cheaper to make than the lower production, high cost A220. Have you forgotten the A220 drove the 3rd largest commercial aircraft maker out of the business? Have you forgotten the A220 is made in Quebec, with high labor costs, lots of regulations and ridiculous and costly language laws?


Airbus said last year that A220 deliveries didn't even cover variable cost, let alone mfg overhead, engineering overhead, SG&A, and profit. Zero contribution margin was the reference in Feb. 2021.


So Airbus is dumping A220s! Illegal! How are they allowed to do this?! (All said with sarcasm since that’s what everyone is saying if Boeing gives a deal on a MAX).
 
2eng2efficient
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:45 pm

A core part of G4’s competitive strategy is to source aircraft at the lowest practical cost today. They must heavily discount future benefits/synergies and intangibles in the decision model - it’s all about net cash flows in the first few years. Maury’s shareholder letters frequently riff on this point.

This is G4’s first purchase of an aircraft in this generation, however, I expect G4 to continue to position this as “We got these planes at an exceptionally good deal” - Read: Even after fleet conversion costs, we paid less than a new fleet of A220s, yielding better cash flow in the near term.

Jon Ostrower calling G4 a “bottom feeder” (tongue-in-cheek) in his most recent tweet illustrates this.
Last edited by 2eng2efficient on Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:50 pm

tphuang wrote:
Revelation wrote:
Dutchy wrote:
that would be quite surprising to me, both would represent a new fleet for them, but the A220 seems to be better suited than the 737M7, too heavy for what it is. To offset that difference in operating cost, the price must be quite low.

IMO all that was needed was to offer similar pricing and better availability than Airbus Canada can. Given the recent QF and KL deals and the low production rate, chances are that the queue for A220s is quite long these days. A nice kind of problem to have, but still, not ideal. The Bloomberg article talks a lot about Allegiant wanting to cash in on recent strong demand for non-business flights. Hard to do that if you can't get airplanes.


Right, even if we accept the notion that A220 is more efficient (which I think is the case), pricing and availability does matter. Have multiplier suppliers also helps with negotiation power. It doesn't seem like G4 mind having multiple fleet types.


One advantage that the B737-7 has over the A223 is a higher seating capacity. The MAX 7 has an exit limit of 172 seats and the A223 limits out at 160 seats. Allegiant will be outfitting these with high-density interiors and the extra dozen seats means more revenue potential. Allegiant also sells package deals that include rental cars and hotel rooms along with the airfares. They also make good bank on luggage and seating preference fees.

Another thing to remember is that the A220 has a different flight deck and type rating than the A32X series, so if Allegiant ordered those they still would be dealing with a split fleet when it comes to training, crewing and maintenance.

I do wonder if some of these proposed 50 frames might include some "whitetail" MAX 8's sitting around at Moses Lake?
 
MIflyer12
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Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Tue Jan 04, 2022 11:55 pm

orlandocfi wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
How will they configure a potential MAX 7? 174 seats at 28" pitch? Maybe 150 seats with an extra wide seat and extra pitch section for a small premium.


The -7 is exit limited to 172. And I’m sure G4 will pack that many on!


The A319s and A320s have 30 inch pitch - no worse than many U.S. legacy narrowbodies. I wouldn't bet Allegiant will keep seat count to 150 or fewer but it's not inconceivable.
 
sxf24
Posts: 1769
Joined: Wed Aug 15, 2007 12:22 pm

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:13 am

2eng2efficient wrote:
A core part of G4’s competitive strategy is to source aircraft at the lowest practical cost today. They must heavily discount future benefits/synergies and intangibles in the decision model - it’s all about net cash flows in the first few years. Maury’s shareholder letters frequently riff on this point.

This is G4’s first purchase of an aircraft in this generation, however, I expect G4 to continue to position this as “We got these planes at an exceptionally good deal” - Read: Even after fleet conversion costs, we paid less than a new fleet of A220s, yielding better cash flow in the near term.

Jon Ostrower calling G4 a “bottom feeder” (tongue-in-cheek) in his most recent tweet illustrates this.


This is literally every airlines strategy.
 
DenverTed
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:13 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
orlandocfi wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
How will they configure a potential MAX 7? 174 seats at 28" pitch? Maybe 150 seats with an extra wide seat and extra pitch section for a small premium.


The -7 is exit limited to 172. And I’m sure G4 will pack that many on!


The A319s and A320s have 30 inch pitch - no worse than many U.S. legacy narrowbodies. I wouldn't bet Allegiant will keep seat count to 150 or fewer but it's not inconceivable.

At 30" pitch I would estimate 27 rows x 6 at 162. I suppose it will depend on the exit row configuration if it is a multiple of 6, same with WN. Being 6'-5", 30" doesn't work for me. I'm happy to see the MAX 7 get some sales. I think it has a lot of potential for a mixed pitch cabin with 150 seats.
Last edited by DenverTed on Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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Polot
Posts: 13091
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:14 am

DenverTed wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
orlandocfi wrote:

The -7 is exit limited to 172. And I’m sure G4 will pack that many on!


The A319s and A320s have 30 inch pitch - no worse than many U.S. legacy narrowbodies. I wouldn't bet Allegiant will keep seat count to 150 or fewer but it's not inconceivable.

At 30" pitch I would estimate 32 rows x 6 at 162. I suppose it will depend on the exit row configuration if it is a multiple of 6, same with WN. Being 6'-5", 30" doesn't work for me. I'm happy to see the MAX 7 get some sales. I think it has a lot of potential for a mixed pitch cabin with 150 seats.

G4 has been experimenting with a Y+ class with extra legroom. I would expect that for additional ancillary revenue potential with the Y cabin squeezed to still maximize number of pax on plane.
 
cbphoto
Posts: 1304
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2003 6:23 am

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:17 am

jbs2886 wrote:
cbphoto wrote:
There is more to this order then just price as well. No doubt G4 got a great deal from Boeing, but time line is key to this order. The earliest G4 could get a NEO was the 2025/6 time frame and G4 needed something much sooner for their planned growth. With the current used CEO options, they would fall short on their growth plans.

I’m not sure why people are so shocked at the Max 7. It would likely be the 319 replacement and the 8200 would be the 186 seat 320 replacement. Again, it’s all speculation until the order is confirmed, but I’d bet the Max 7 is a small part of the over all order. And if it turns out to be true, I’d say the Airbus days at Allegiant are suddenly numbered.


Except it’s very clear the competition wasn’t the NEO, it was the A220. That being said, I do think the timeline favored the MAX.


Well..yes, that’s what I said! The competition wasn’t the NEO strictly because of the time line for when the first NEO could be delivered. Hence why it wasn’t in the running and ended up between the 220 and Max.
 
AndoAv8R
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:23 am

I dont know if this was even part of the comparison but whats the difference in cargo volume difference between the A220 and Max 7?
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:31 am

MIflyer12 wrote:

Airbus said last year that A220 deliveries didn't even cover variable cost, let alone mfg overhead, engineering overhead, SG&A, and profit. Zero contribution margin was the reference in Feb. 2021.



Last Year...


Again, the 220 is in a better position for this now than the 787 was at this point in its history. There were no concerns here about that then, nor did it have a meaningful impact on sales. AB will not be marketing the 220 as they are if the situation was anything like that now.

MIflyer12 wrote:
orlandocfi wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
How will they configure a potential MAX 7? 174 seats at 28" pitch? Maybe 150 seats with an extra wide seat and extra pitch section for a small premium.


The -7 is exit limited to 172. And I’m sure G4 will pack that many on!


The A319s and A320s have 30 inch pitch - no worse than many U.S. legacy narrowbodies. I wouldn't bet Allegiant will keep seat count to 150 or fewer but it's not inconceivable.


They will likely install as many seats as they can. Their model does not support much else, but it does allow for the use of M7s if the utilization rates and acquisition costs are both low enough.


MIflyer12 wrote:
I hope everyone realizes that Allegiant operates more narrowbodies than KLM + Transavia. All that crowing about KLM ordering Airbus... crow shall now be eaten.


Everyone realizes the —still only speculative— order is for 50 aircraft. And deliberately not their entire fleet. This is less than one third of the KLM order.

There is no need to cook birds.
Last edited by DarkSnowyNight on Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
Gulfstream500
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:34 am

If I recall correctly, this would be the third operator of the -7, with the others being WN and WS. I wonder if they are planning on going "all-in" on the 737s (and eventually ditch the A320 series) or if they are just ordering the -7 sub-fleet for the cheap price? By the number of seats, the -7 would lie somewhere between the A319 and A320...
Last edited by Gulfstream500 on Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
 
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FLALEFTY
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:36 am

Polot wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

The A319s and A320s have 30 inch pitch - no worse than many U.S. legacy narrowbodies. I wouldn't bet Allegiant will keep seat count to 150 or fewer but it's not inconceivable.

At 30" pitch I would estimate 32 rows x 6 at 162. I suppose it will depend on the exit row configuration if it is a multiple of 6, same with WN. Being 6'-5", 30" doesn't work for me. I'm happy to see the MAX 7 get some sales. I think it has a lot of potential for a mixed pitch cabin with 150 seats.

G4 has been experimenting with a Y+ class with extra legroom. I would expect that for additional ancillary revenue potential with the Y cabin squeezed to still maximize number of pax on plane.


For comparison, Allegiant currently runs their A319s with 18 "Legroom +" seats (34" pitch) and 138 standard seats (30" pitch). The certified exit limit for the A319 is 156 seats, which matches G4's current layout. The "Legroom +" seats are the 6 facing the front bulkhead and 12 in the 2 over-wing exit rows. Their A319s are the 156-seat high-density variants that have 2 over-wing exit rows instead of the usual 1 exit row. They obtained these A319's from EasyJet and Cebu Pacific.

https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Alleg ... s_A319.php

Based on this, I imagine Allegiant will outfit their new B737-7's at the exit limit of 172.
 
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Polot
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:37 am

DarkSnowyNight wrote:

Again, the 220 is in a better position for this now than the 787 was at this point in its history. There were no concerns here about that then, nor did it have a meaningful impact on sales. AB will not be marketing the 220 as they are if the situation was anything like that now.


At this point (~5.5 years after EIS) the 787 was cash positive or close to it.
 
Manderson12
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:37 am

Wow! looks like Breeze ordering 80 A220s has G4 and all the Low Cost carriers in a tizzy, seems like all the major LCCs are in growth and expansion mode to meet the coming competition of MOXY.
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:39 am

Gulfstream500 wrote:
If I recall correctly, this would be the third operator of the -7, with the others being WN and WS. I wonder if they are planning on going "all-in" on the 737s (and eventually ditching the A320 series) or if they are just ordering the -7 for the cheap price? By the number of seats, the -7 would lie somewhere between the A319 and A320...


Price and availability. The 220 can match the latter, but not the former.

In any case, their Airbus fleet is not exactly geriatric and also does not fly every day. It is difficult to imagine what BCA would have to do to convince them to go all in in this fashion. Maybe in another 15 years?

To me, this potential order reads more like expansion than replacement cycle.
 
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Polot
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:39 am

FLALEFTY wrote:
Polot wrote:
DenverTed wrote:
At 30" pitch I would estimate 32 rows x 6 at 162. I suppose it will depend on the exit row configuration if it is a multiple of 6, same with WN. Being 6'-5", 30" doesn't work for me. I'm happy to see the MAX 7 get some sales. I think it has a lot of potential for a mixed pitch cabin with 150 seats.

G4 has been experimenting with a Y+ class with extra legroom. I would expect that for additional ancillary revenue potential with the Y cabin squeezed to still maximize number of pax on plane.


For comparison, Allegiant currently runs their A319s with 18 "Legroom +" seats (34" pitch) and 138 standard seats (30" pitch). The certified exit limit for the A319 is 156 seats, which matches G4's current layout. The "Legroom +" seats are the 6 facing the front bulkhead and 12 in the 2 over-wing exit rows. Their A319s are the 156-seat high-density variants that have 2 over-wing exit rows instead of the usual 1 exit row. They obtained these A319's from EasyJet and Cebu Pacific.

https://www.seatguru.com/airlines/Alleg ... s_A319.php

Based on this, I imagine Allegiant will outfit their new B737-7's at the exit limit of 172.

Allegiant has also experimented with an “Allegiant Extra” class on a handful of A320s: https://thepointsguy.com/news/allegiant ... ights/amp/
 
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DarkSnowyNight
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:45 am

Polot wrote:
DarkSnowyNight wrote:

Again, the 220 is in a better position for this now than the 787 was at this point in its history. There were no concerns here about that then, nor did it have a meaningful impact on sales. AB will not be marketing the 220 as they are if the situation was anything like that now.


At this point (~5.5 years after EIS) the 787 was cash positive or close to it.



To be clear, I was referencing the number of unit deliveries, as that is far more relevant. The 787 was not cash positive or close to that at 186 deliveries. That came closer to 550, IIRC.
 
StTim
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:51 am

I must say I have found this thread good fun to read. All the fans of one side pouring in with the standard (well worn out) arguments to support their side and denigrate the other manufacturer - whilst those on the other side do the same. All pointless really. So little actual information. Just a flame war.
 
xdlx
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Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 12:52 am

I smell a Sun Country Merger?
 
Runway765
Posts: 611
Joined: Sun Feb 07, 2021 1:21 am

Re: Allegiant nearing deal for 737MAX

Wed Jan 05, 2022 1:04 am

xdlx wrote:
I smell a Sun Country Merger?


Nah. With the way things are going for them, I’d be surprised if Sun Country lasts in its current form much longer. They may be better off being acquired and integrated into Amazon Air.
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