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jplatts
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Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Sun Jan 09, 2022 9:57 pm

Here are the top domestic routes out of AA/DL/UA/AS hub markets within 1780 mi not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS that had market PDEW's of at least 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021:
BOS-GSP/TYS/OKC/OMA/SAT (market PDEW's include PVD/MHT in addition to BOS)
DEN-ALB/AVL/BUF/MYR
DTW-PNS
IAH-BUF/GEG (market PDEW's include HOU in addition to IAH)
MIA-ABQ/AVL/BUF/ELP/LEX/MYR (market PDEW's include FLL in addition to MIA)
LAX-CID/DSM/LIT/MFE/MKE/SGF/ICT (market PDEW's include BUR/LGB/ONT/SNA in addition to LAX)
MSP-PNS
NYC-LIT/MFE/TUL (market PDEW's include LGA/JFK/EWR/ISP/SWF/HPN, MFE outside of LGA perimeter)
PHX-ATW/BHM/BZN/COS/LIT/SDF/MSO/MLI/SBN/SGF/PNS/PIA/ICT (market PDEW's include AZA in addition to PHX)
PDX-OMA/STL/SAT
SLC-CLE/CMH/IND/PIT
SFO-TUL (market PDEW's include OAK/SJC in addition to SFO)
WAS-ABQ/COS/ELP (market PDEW's include DCA/IAD/BWI, ABQ/COS/ELP outside of DCA perimeter)

The routes listed above are likely within the range of E-175 regional jets as all of the routes listed above are shorter than ORD-EUG (the longest route within the contiguous U.S. that is served nonstop on E-175 regional jets).

Which of the above routes are likely to be added by AA, DL, UA, or AS?
 
flyfresno
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Sun Jan 09, 2022 10:07 pm

What was FAT-MSP? I'm surprised not to see that on here...
 
jplatts
Topic Author
Posts: 5572
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Sun Jan 09, 2022 10:11 pm

flyfresno wrote:
What was FAT-MSP? I'm surprised not to see that on here...


The PDEW of FAT-MSP was only 34 passengers/day in Q2 2021, and the COVID-19 pandemic has weakened demand on many routes that previously had much stronger demand prior to the pandemic.
 
flyfresno
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Joined: Tue May 02, 2006 6:18 am

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Sun Jan 09, 2022 10:22 pm

jplatts wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
What was FAT-MSP? I'm surprised not to see that on here...


The PDEW of FAT-MSP was only 34 passengers/day in Q2 2021, and the COVID-19 pandemic has weakened demand on many routes that previously had much stronger demand prior to the pandemic.


Thanks. FAT has recovered pretty well, but I don't think that recovery really started until after Q2.
 
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adamh8297
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Sun Jan 09, 2022 11:42 pm

jplatts wrote:
Here are the top domestic routes out of AA/DL/UA/AS hub markets within 1780 mi not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS that had market PDEW's of at least 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021:
BOS-GSP/TYS/OKC/OMA/SAT (market PDEW's include PVD/MHT in addition to BOS)

Which of the above routes are likely to be added by AA, DL, UA, or AS?


Thanks for posting this

For Boston I'll split it into served vs unserved by any airline.

BOS-SAT is served by B6 so with the partnership AA has some stake in it.
BOS-TYS is served by G4. Seems to be a route for tourism into Boston right now.


BOS-GSP - DL? I think it is too close to AVL for B6 and AA to enter
BOS-OMA - definitely could be either AA or DL.
BOS-OKC - less likely than OMA or GSP. Being 1500 miles this one would need some better yields.

Also was BOS-GSO over 45 PDEW? That is usually up there.
 
USAirALB
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Sun Jan 09, 2022 11:59 pm

I'm surprised both DFW-ALB and DFW-PVD weren't above 45 PDEW.
 
jplatts
Topic Author
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:00 am

adamh8297 wrote:
Also was BOS-GSO over 45 PDEW? That is usually up there.


The PDEW of GSO-BOS/MHT/PVD was only 26 passengers/day in Q2 2021.
 
jplatts
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:02 am

USAirALB wrote:
I'm surprised both DFW-ALB and DFW-PVD weren't above 45 PDEW.


The PDEW of ALB-DFW/DAL was 44 passengers/day in Q2 2021 and the PDEW of PVD-DFW/DAL was 37 passengers/day in Q2 2021.
 
PVD757
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:12 am

If you’re going to combine PVD and MHT into BOS, why wouldn’t you do the same in reverse? PVD and MHT should be listed for DFW, DEN, IAH, LAX, MIA, etc.
 
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BA744PHX
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:14 am

jplatts wrote:
Here are the top domestic routes out of AA/DL/UA/AS hub markets within 1780 mi not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS that had market PDEW's of at least 45
PHX-ATW/BHM/BZN/COS/LIT/SDF/MSO/MLI/SBN/SGF/PNS/PIA/ICT (market PDEW's include AZA in addition to PHX)
The routes listed above are likely within the range of E-175 regional jets as all of the routes listed above are shorter than ORD-EUG (the longest route within the contiguous U.S. that is served nonstop on E-175 regional jets).

Which of the above routes are likely to be added by AA, DL, UA, or AS?

AA & WN started PHX-BZN this past S21 as seasonal, not sure if either are returning for S22
PHX-COS/ICT started W19 and ended when COVID started, COS was up to 3 daily with 1 mainline and 2 regional prior to ending, I doubt AA will return with WN up to 3 daily plus F9
PHX-LIT started W20 and didn't return W21

I would hope all of the above BZN, COS, ICT & LIT return but not likely.

All others are either G4 routes from AZA, which are possible but AA will likely keep those passengers flying ORD/DFW instead
 
MIflyer12
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Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:19 am

jplatts wrote:
The routes listed above are likely within the range of E-175 regional jets as all of the routes listed above are shorter than ORD-EUG (the longest route within the contiguous U.S. that is served nonstop on E-175 regional jets).

Which of the above routes are likely to be added by AA, DL, UA, or AS?


IMHO some of those routes wouldn't see much stimulation by n/s service: PDX-OMA and IAH-GEG, as examples. If you put avg fares to your route list I'm skeptical that many will cover the CASM (+profit) of an E75 or CR9.

No DTW-ELP, it seems.
 
deltairlines
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:19 am

jplatts wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
Also was BOS-GSO over 45 PDEW? That is usually up there.


The PDEW of GSO-BOS/MHT/PVD was only 26 passengers/day in Q2 2021.


I remember the days when I was in college in Winston-Salem and lived in BOS - we had US and DL on the route 2x/day on ERJs my Freshman year.

I think a lot of this market has bled to RDU. It's just over an hour from Greensboro to RDU, and with DL having 6x/day or so and B6 having 3x/day nonstop, there is frequent, low-fare capacity from that airport.
 
lat41
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:20 am

USAirALB wrote:
I'm surprised both DFW-ALB and DFW-PVD weren't above 45 PDEW.

For PVD, Southern New England leakage North to BOS skews the numbers.
 
AC4500
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 2:19 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
The routes listed above are likely within the range of E-175 regional jets as all of the routes listed above are shorter than ORD-EUG (the longest route within the contiguous U.S. that is served nonstop on E-175 regional jets).

Which of the above routes are likely to be added by AA, DL, UA, or AS?


IMHO some of those routes wouldn't see much stimulation by n/s service: PDX-OMA and IAH-GEG, as examples. If you put avg fares to your route list I'm skeptical that many will cover the CASM (+profit) of an E75 or CR9.

No DTW-ELP, it seems.

PDX-OMA was flown by AS before COVID. It was summer-seasonal only.
 
B757capt
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:20 am

jplatts wrote:
Here are the top domestic routes out of AA/DL/UA/AS hub markets within 1780 mi not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS that had market PDEW's of at least 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021:
BOS-GSP/TYS/OKC/OMA/SAT (market PDEW's include PVD/MHT in addition to BOS)
DEN-ALB/AVL/BUF/MYR
DTW-PNS
IAH-BUF/GEG (market PDEW's include HOU in addition to IAH)
MIA-ABQ/AVL/BUF/ELP/LEX/MYR (market PDEW's include FLL in addition to MIA)
LAX-CID/DSM/LIT/MFE/MKE/SGF/ICT (market PDEW's include BUR/LGB/ONT/SNA in addition to LAX)
MSP-PNS
NYC-LIT/MFE/TUL (market PDEW's include LGA/JFK/EWR/ISP/SWF/HPN, MFE outside of LGA perimeter)
PHX-ATW/BHM/BZN/COS/LIT/SDF/MSO/MLI/SBN/SGF/PNS/PIA/ICT (market PDEW's include AZA in addition to PHX)
PDX-OMA/STL/SAT
SLC-CLE/CMH/IND/PIT
SFO-TUL (market PDEW's include OAK/SJC in addition to SFO)
WAS-ABQ/COS/ELP (market PDEW's include DCA/IAD/BWI, ABQ/COS/ELP outside of DCA perimeter)

The routes listed above are likely within the range of E-175 regional jets as all of the routes listed above are shorter than ORD-EUG (the longest route within the contiguous U.S. that is served nonstop on E-175 regional jets).

Which of the above routes are likely to be added by AA, DL, UA, or AS?


Pre-pandemic these stats used to fascinate me. Now, I'm not sure I can buy it.
 
ikramerica
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Joined: Mon May 23, 2005 9:33 am

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 5:30 am

B757capt wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Here are the top domestic routes out of AA/DL/UA/AS hub markets within 1780 mi not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS that had market PDEW's of at least 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021:
BOS-GSP/TYS/OKC/OMA/SAT (market PDEW's include PVD/MHT in addition to BOS)
DEN-ALB/AVL/BUF/MYR
DTW-PNS
IAH-BUF/GEG (market PDEW's include HOU in addition to IAH)
MIA-ABQ/AVL/BUF/ELP/LEX/MYR (market PDEW's include FLL in addition to MIA)
LAX-CID/DSM/LIT/MFE/MKE/SGF/ICT (market PDEW's include BUR/LGB/ONT/SNA in addition to LAX)
MSP-PNS
NYC-LIT/MFE/TUL (market PDEW's include LGA/JFK/EWR/ISP/SWF/HPN, MFE outside of LGA perimeter)
PHX-ATW/BHM/BZN/COS/LIT/SDF/MSO/MLI/SBN/SGF/PNS/PIA/ICT (market PDEW's include AZA in addition to PHX)
PDX-OMA/STL/SAT
SLC-CLE/CMH/IND/PIT
SFO-TUL (market PDEW's include OAK/SJC in addition to SFO)
WAS-ABQ/COS/ELP (market PDEW's include DCA/IAD/BWI, ABQ/COS/ELP outside of DCA perimeter)

The routes listed above are likely within the range of E-175 regional jets as all of the routes listed above are shorter than ORD-EUG (the longest route within the contiguous U.S. that is served nonstop on E-175 regional jets).

Which of the above routes are likely to be added by AA, DL, UA, or AS?


Pre-pandemic these stats used to fascinate me. Now, I'm not sure I can buy it.

Yeah, makes it hard to judge.

But LAX-MKE might be one that makes sense.
 
flycmh2009
Posts: 54
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 1:22 am

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 6:17 am

Interesting list. For domestic narrowbody service, I see a lot of long, thin routes that would a) barely even support E175 service with only 45 PDEW or b) because of distance, could only be served by a mainline aircraft. IAH-BUF/GEG, as an example, on this list stands out for these reasons. Barely doable in fair weather conditions on the E175, let alone with winter headwinds. I really don't see any airline taking the chance of doing that with 45 PDEW.

Also, considering this data is from Q2 2021, it's very clearly pandemic-driven demand. It'll be interesting going forward to see how/where demand dictates new service until there's a meaningful recovery in business traffic.
 
usflyer msp
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:30 am

flyfresno wrote:
What was FAT-MSP? I'm surprised not to see that on here...


MSP-FAT is basically the "Hmong route".
This particular community has been very devasted by COVID so they have been staying close to home.
Demand for the route will recover once COVID is under control.
 
MIflyer12
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Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 12:27 pm

AC4500 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:
jplatts wrote:
The routes listed above are likely within the range of E-175 regional jets as all of the routes listed above are shorter than ORD-EUG (the longest route within the contiguous U.S. that is served nonstop on E-175 regional jets).

Which of the above routes are likely to be added by AA, DL, UA, or AS?


IMHO some of those routes wouldn't see much stimulation by n/s service: PDX-OMA and IAH-GEG, as examples. If you put avg fares to your route list I'm skeptical that many will cover the CASM (+profit) of an E75 or CR9.

No DTW-ELP, it seems.

PDX-OMA was flown by AS before COVID. It was summer-seasonal only.


Thanks for that detail. Has Alaska shrunken its E75 ops, or just redeployed the aircraft? If the latter, it supports my contention: they have better routes for their E75s.
 
flyfresno
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 3:19 pm

usflyer msp wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
What was FAT-MSP? I'm surprised not to see that on here...


MSP-FAT is basically the "Hmong route".
This particular community has been very devasted by COVID so they have been staying close to home.
Demand for the route will recover once COVID is under control.


There's also quite a few ag companies with offices in both metros...
 
stxbohn
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:07 pm

deltairlines wrote:
jplatts wrote:
adamh8297 wrote:
Also was BOS-GSO over 45 PDEW? That is usually up there.


The PDEW of GSO-BOS/MHT/PVD was only 26 passengers/day in Q2 2021.


I remember the days when I was in college in Winston-Salem and lived in BOS - we had US and DL on the route 2x/day on ERJs my Freshman year.

I think a lot of this market has bled to RDU. It's just over an hour from Greensboro to RDU, and with DL having 6x/day or so and B6 having 3x/day nonstop, there is frequent, low-fare capacity from that airport.


Think I'd extend to any route out of GSO evaporating to RDU or CLT and the overall loss of traffic through GSO. Basically makes GSO not show up on this analysis unfortunately.
 
FATFlyer
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:24 pm

flyfresno wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
What was FAT-MSP? I'm surprised not to see that on here...


MSP-FAT is basically the "Hmong route".
This particular community has been very devasted by COVID so they have been staying close to home.
Demand for the route will recover once COVID is under control.


There's also quite a few ag companies with offices in both metros...


Not everyone realizes companies like Cargill, Land O Lakes, and several others have multiple plants in Central California creating business ties between Minnesota and Fresno.
 
drdisque
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 7:35 pm

MKE-LAX has been flown for years in the past. The issue is that even before COVID the yields were trash. NK service only is the best possible scenario these days.

DL flew SLC-CLE until a few weeks ago. I think they've flown SLC-IND and SLC-CMH recently as well.

UA flew SFO-TUL for a long time. They even flew it with a CR7.

DTW/MSP-PNS are interesting, I'm willing to bet that DL already has like 90%+ market share and thus sees no reason to fly nonstop.

DEN-ALB/BUF seem like great A220 routes if UA had them, but they don't. They seem a little too low yielding to support such a long flight on an E-Jet.
 
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AVLAirlineFreq
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Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:40 pm

jplatts wrote:
Here are the top domestic routes out of AA/DL/UA/AS hub markets within 1780 mi not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS that had market PDEW's of at least 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021:
BOS-GSP/TYS/OKC/OMA/SAT (market PDEW's include PVD/MHT in addition to BOS)
DEN-ALB/AVL/BUF/MYR
DTW-PNS
IAH-BUF/GEG (market PDEW's include HOU in addition to IAH)
MIA-ABQ/AVL/BUF/ELP/LEX/MYR (market PDEW's include FLL in addition to MIA)
LAX-CID/DSM/LIT/MFE/MKE/SGF/ICT (market PDEW's include BUR/LGB/ONT/SNA in addition to LAX)
MSP-PNS
NYC-LIT/MFE/TUL (market PDEW's include LGA/JFK/EWR/ISP/SWF/HPN, MFE outside of LGA perimeter)
PHX-ATW/BHM/BZN/COS/LIT/SDF/MSO/MLI/SBN/SGF/PNS/PIA/ICT (market PDEW's include AZA in addition to PHX)
PDX-OMA/STL/SAT
SLC-CLE/CMH/IND/PIT
SFO-TUL (market PDEW's include OAK/SJC in addition to SFO)
WAS-ABQ/COS/ELP (market PDEW's include DCA/IAD/BWI, ABQ/COS/ELP outside of DCA perimeter)

The routes listed above are likely within the range of E-175 regional jets as all of the routes listed above are shorter than ORD-EUG (the longest route within the contiguous U.S. that is served nonstop on E-175 regional jets).

Which of the above routes are likely to be added by AA, DL, UA, or AS?



This is really interesting data.

Given what's occurring with the regionals right now, and UA specifically, it's hard to envision when some of these routes might be flown. For example (and I'm admittedly biased), I think a route like DEN-AVL would do well. But given UA's regional situation, I honestly have no idea when anyone could expect to see it launched.
 
usflyer msp
Posts: 4585
Joined: Tue May 23, 2000 11:50 am

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 8:56 pm

FATFlyer wrote:
flyfresno wrote:
usflyer msp wrote:

MSP-FAT is basically the "Hmong route".
This particular community has been very devasted by COVID so they have been staying close to home.
Demand for the route will recover once COVID is under control.


There's also quite a few ag companies with offices in both metros...


Not everyone realizes companies like Cargill, Land O Lakes, and several others have multiple plants in Central California creating business ties between Minnesota and Fresno.


The vast majority of the traffic is Hmong. The business traffic on this route is probably less than 10PDEW. This is why there has been little interest in serving the route from any carrier.
 
VictorKilo
Posts: 292
Joined: Wed Jul 05, 2006 7:39 am

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:38 pm

jplatts wrote:
Here are the top domestic routes out of AA/DL/UA/AS hub markets within 1780 mi not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS that had market PDEW's of at least 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021:
BOS-GSP/TYS/OKC/OMA/SAT (market PDEW's include PVD/MHT in addition to BOS)
DEN-ALB/AVL/BUF/MYR
DTW-PNS
IAH-BUF/GEG (market PDEW's include HOU in addition to IAH)
MIA-ABQ/AVL/BUF/ELP/LEX/MYR (market PDEW's include FLL in addition to MIA)
LAX-CID/DSM/LIT/MFE/MKE/SGF/ICT (market PDEW's include BUR/LGB/ONT/SNA in addition to LAX)
MSP-PNS
NYC-LIT/MFE/TUL (market PDEW's include LGA/JFK/EWR/ISP/SWF/HPN, MFE outside of LGA perimeter)
PHX-ATW/BHM/BZN/COS/LIT/SDF/MSO/MLI/SBN/SGF/PNS/PIA/ICT (market PDEW's include AZA in addition to PHX)
PDX-OMA/STL/SAT
SLC-CLE/CMH/IND/PIT
SFO-TUL (market PDEW's include OAK/SJC in addition to SFO)
WAS-ABQ/COS/ELP (market PDEW's include DCA/IAD/BWI, ABQ/COS/ELP outside of DCA perimeter)

The routes listed above are likely within the range of E-175 regional jets as all of the routes listed above are shorter than ORD-EUG (the longest route within the contiguous U.S. that is served nonstop on E-175 regional jets).

Which of the above routes are likely to be added by AA, DL, UA, or AS?


31 of the routes have some sort of service, including seasonal service and service by Southwest, Frontier, Spirit, JetBlue, or Allegiant.

Only 22 routes lack service altogether:

BOS-GSP/OKC/OMA
DTW-PNS
IAH-BUF/GEG
NYC-LIT/MFE/TUL
MIA-ABQ/ELP
MSP-PNS
PDX-OMA/SAT
PHX-BHM/PNS
SFO-TUL
SLC-CLE/IND/PIT
WAS-COS/ELP
 
LAXdude1023
Posts: 6800
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2006 3:16 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Mon Jan 10, 2022 9:44 pm

VictorKilo wrote:
Only 22 routes lack service altogether:

BOS-GSP/OKC/OMA
DTW-PNS
IAH-BUF/GEG
NYC-LIT/MFE/TUL
MIA-ABQ/ELP
MSP-PNS
PDX-OMA/SAT
PHX-BHM/PNS
SFO-TUL
SLC-CLE/IND/PIT
WAS-COS/ELP


UA had announced IAH-GEG but it never launched due to Covid.
 
AC4500
Posts: 961
Joined: Sat Oct 03, 2020 3:02 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:22 am

MIflyer12 wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
MIflyer12 wrote:

IMHO some of those routes wouldn't see much stimulation by n/s service: PDX-OMA and IAH-GEG, as examples. If you put avg fares to your route list I'm skeptical that many will cover the CASM (+profit) of an E75 or CR9.

No DTW-ELP, it seems.

PDX-OMA was flown by AS before COVID. It was summer-seasonal only.


Thanks for that detail. Has Alaska shrunken its E75 ops, or just redeployed the aircraft? If the latter, it supports my contention: they have better routes for their E75s.

The E75 ops are growing (relative to COVID cuts, of course).

We're now seeing AS fly PDX-AUS/DFW/ORD with E75s instead of thinner markets like PDX-MKE/OMA/STL. However, during the slower winter travel season, the long westbound flights (specifically ORD-PDX) often divert to SLC or BOI for fuel stops. The stronger jetstream in the winter season does not bode well for a range-restricted fleet if E75s.
 
Scoots71
Posts: 131
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:13 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:22 pm

VictorKilo wrote:

31 of the routes have some sort of service, including seasonal service and service by Southwest, Frontier, Spirit, JetBlue, or Allegiant.

Only 22 routes lack service altogether:

BOS-GSP/OKC/OMA
DTW-PNS
IAH-BUF/GEG
NYC-LIT/MFE/TUL
MIA-ABQ/ELP
MSP-PNS
PDX-OMA/SAT
PHX-BHM/PNS
SFO-TUL
SLC-CLE/IND/PIT
WAS-COS/ELP


One route left off was BHM-BOS at 45 PDEW. Either way, BHM is a vastly underserved market with both PHX and BOS not being served, as well as the lack of DL service to SLC (even for westbound connections), and any service to LA area (94 PDEW)

I also would really love to see the Q3 numbers, because that is really when people started traveling closer to normal loads.
 
airlinepeanuts
Posts: 243
Joined: Fri Mar 13, 2015 4:16 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:29 pm

Why was SEA omitted?
 
jplatts
Topic Author
Posts: 5572
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:42 pm

airlinepeanuts wrote:
Why was SEA omitted?


SEA-MSN was the only route within 1,780 miles of SEA without nonstop service from SEA that had a PDEW of 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021.

The other domestic markets not served nonstop from SEA that had PDEW's of at least 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021 such as GRR, JAX, MEM, and ORF are all more than 1,800 miles from SEA.

The other top domestic markets without nonstop service from SEA that are within 1,780 miles of SEA such as COS, DSM, XNA, and TUL all had PDEW's of fewer than 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021.
 
MIflyer12
Posts: 11169
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2013 11:58 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 2:52 pm

AC4500 wrote:
We're now seeing AS fly PDX-AUS/DFW/ORD with E75s instead of thinner markets like PDX-MKE/OMA/STL. However, during the slower winter travel season, the long westbound flights (specifically ORD-PDX) often divert to SLC or BOI for fuel stops. The stronger jetstream in the winter season does not bode well for a range-restricted fleet if E75s.


The OP applied an interesting distance limit: within nominal E75 or CR9 range, I suppose? Yes, winter winds will mess with that. The longest CR9 Delta Connection route I recall is MSP-YVR at 1,436sm, and that was summer-seasonal. (Please correct me if they had anything longer.)

Aren't AA/DL/UA fully scoped out on 76-seaters, anyway? That really only leaves AS as capable of expanding their fleet (although I don't know details of the AS/QX contracts). B6 hasn't shown any interest in that size class. WN, F9, NK, G4 -- forget it.

Sure, you can leave out seats to make them scope-compliant: 70 seats at DL. 64(?) at AA? That just messes with CASM and makes them less competitive with mainline and LCCs/ULCCs.

IMHO, the distance filter is too long, the PDEW of 45 is way too low, and the whole analysis ignores the value of frequent connections and the competition from driveable airports. Birmingham doesn't lack air service: it's a 2:20 drive to the largest hub in the country. Why isn't there a n/s BHM-LAX: 15 nonstops a day on 3 different operating carriers ATL-LAX.
 
dirtymillennial
Posts: 9
Joined: Fri May 03, 2019 4:41 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 3:03 pm

jplatts wrote:
airlinepeanuts wrote:
Why was SEA omitted?


SEA-MSN was the only route within 1,780 miles of SEA without nonstop service from SEA that had a PDEW of 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021.

The other domestic markets not served nonstop from SEA that had PDEW's of at least 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021 such as GRR, JAX, MEM, and ORF are all more than 1,800 miles from SEA.

The other top domestic markets without nonstop service from SEA that are within 1,780 miles of SEA such as COS, DSM, XNA, and TUL all had PDEW's of fewer than 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021.


Speaking of MSN, I was surprised not to see it listed on the list as unserved from LAX. Has demand really dropped off that much? UA used to fly nonstop daily prior to April '20.
 
PSU.DTW.SCE
Posts: 9331
Joined: Mon Jan 28, 2002 11:45 am

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:43 pm

The reality is on these long-thin routes, the PDEW numbers really need to be much, much higher, particularly if they "unlock" a sustancial amount of new connecting opportunities.
These route overfly multiple large connecting hubs that have frequent, timely service throughout the operating day.

A long-thin route, with relatively low PDEW, flying once a day, at best the nonstop may be able to capture 50% of the market. For the other 50%, some combination of schedule, loyalty program/status, and price is still going to fly on a connecting option or other carrier.

Plus, in the current era, business travel is still in the 50% range of pre-pandemic. There is still a long way to go until average fares and demand returns at a granular level on specific routes/markets, if ever to what it was pre-pandemic.
 
maverick4002
Posts: 542
Joined: Sun Jul 12, 2015 2:14 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 4:55 pm

Whats the significance of using 1780 miles and 45 PDEW?
 
JRL3289
Posts: 80
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 11:57 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:02 pm

I think BOS-OMA has to be on the radar for AA/B6... especially considering they've recently started or will be starting BOS-MCI/MKE/STL. Obviously demand is stunted now, but pre-pandemic the market averaged somewhere in the 100 PDEW range.
 
IAD380DCA
Posts: 4
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2021 12:53 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:09 pm

A lot of govt travel between WAS-COS and ABQ. Some of that is Pentagon related which is not that far from DCA. At some future point, I would not be at all surprised if there was a push to open some outside perimeter slots to serve either one or both of those cities from DCA. If it could only be one city I would probably guess ABQ.
Can’t speak that much about govt. traffic WAS-ELP.
 
UWPAviation
Posts: 189
Joined: Mon Dec 19, 2016 7:36 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:16 pm

Im surprised MKE-SFO is not on this list. MKE has not had service to the bay area forever. I am still surprised WN has not restarted MKE-LAX, especially with NK now flying that route.
 
jplatts
Topic Author
Posts: 5572
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:44 pm

UWPAviation wrote:
Im surprised MKE-SFO is not on this list. MKE has not had service to the bay area forever. I am still surprised WN has not restarted MKE-LAX, especially with NK now flying that route.


While the PDEW of MKE-SFO/OAK/SJC was 67 passengers/day in Q2 2021, SFO is 1,845 miles from MKE. MKE-SFO is longer than any domestic route within the contiguous U.S. that is served nonstop on E-175 regional jets.
 
IADCA
Posts: 2562
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:24 am

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:53 pm

IAD380DCA wrote:
A lot of govt travel between WAS-COS and ABQ. Some of that is Pentagon related which is not that far from DCA. At some future point, I would not be at all surprised if there was a push to open some outside perimeter slots to serve either one or both of those cities from DCA. If it could only be one city I would probably guess ABQ.
Can’t speak that much about govt. traffic WAS-ELP.


Hard to see that happening anytime soon when places with equally large or larger military/government infrastructure and in much larger cities don't have flights yet - SAN and SAT, for example - and there are still only a handful of frequencies to major hubs on the West Coast (SFO only has 2x/day). United doesn't even serve COS from IAD despite the lack of a perimeter rule there and it being in E175 range.
 
jplatts
Topic Author
Posts: 5572
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:57 pm

maverick4002 wrote:
Whats the significance of using 1780 miles and 45 PDEW?


I was using 1,780 miles as this is the distance of the longest route within the contiguous U.S. (ORD-EUG) that is served nonstop on E-175 regional jets.

I was also using a PDEW of 45 as
(a) a load factor of 80% on a 70-seat regional jet equals 56 passengers/flight,
(b) there would be enough stimulation of O&D demand on some routes with PDEW's of less than 56 passengers/day to support daily nonstop service on regional jets, and
(c) there would likely be some connecting traffic in addition to O&D traffic on new nonstop routes that are added to hubs by AA/DL/UA/AS.
 
HanCholo
Posts: 66
Joined: Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:12 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Wed Jan 12, 2022 6:44 am

VictorKilo wrote:
jplatts wrote:
Here are the top domestic routes out of AA/DL/UA/AS hub markets within 1780 mi not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS that had market PDEW's of at least 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021:
BOS-GSP/TYS/OKC/OMA/SAT (market PDEW's include PVD/MHT in addition to BOS)
DEN-ALB/AVL/BUF/MYR
DTW-PNS
IAH-BUF/GEG (market PDEW's include HOU in addition to IAH)
MIA-ABQ/AVL/BUF/ELP/LEX/MYR (market PDEW's include FLL in addition to MIA)
LAX-CID/DSM/LIT/MFE/MKE/SGF/ICT (market PDEW's include BUR/LGB/ONT/SNA in addition to LAX)
MSP-PNS
NYC-LIT/MFE/TUL (market PDEW's include LGA/JFK/EWR/ISP/SWF/HPN, MFE outside of LGA perimeter)
PHX-ATW/BHM/BZN/COS/LIT/SDF/MSO/MLI/SBN/SGF/PNS/PIA/ICT (market PDEW's include AZA in addition to PHX)
PDX-OMA/STL/SAT
SLC-CLE/CMH/IND/PIT
SFO-TUL (market PDEW's include OAK/SJC in addition to SFO)
WAS-ABQ/COS/ELP (market PDEW's include DCA/IAD/BWI, ABQ/COS/ELP outside of DCA perimeter)

The routes listed above are likely within the range of E-175 regional jets as all of the routes listed above are shorter than ORD-EUG (the longest route within the contiguous U.S. that is served nonstop on E-175 regional jets).

Which of the above routes are likely to be added by AA, DL, UA, or AS?


31 of the routes have some sort of service, including seasonal service and service by Southwest, Frontier, Spirit, JetBlue, or Allegiant.

Only 22 routes lack service altogether:

BOS-GSP/OKC/OMA
DTW-PNS
IAH-BUF/GEG
NYC-LIT/MFE/TUL
MIA-ABQ/ELP
MSP-PNS
PDX-OMA/SAT
PHX-BHM/PNS
SFO-TUL
SLC-CLE/IND/PIT
WAS-COS/ELP


MIA-ELP Saturday-only service may work if AA decides to initiate it. Concerning WAS and as I've said before there's a huge federal presence in the ELP catchment area with an army and air force base nearby along with local, state and most if not all, federal law enforcement agencies. The latter could explain the PDEW numbers to WAS. If I remember correctly pre-COVID UA was contemplating ELP-IAD with the city of El Paso subsidizing the route using federal grant money, but I am not sure if that initiative even exists anymore.
 
BoeingGuy
Posts: 6882
Joined: Fri Dec 10, 2010 6:01 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:57 am

jplatts wrote:
airlinepeanuts wrote:
Why was SEA omitted?


SEA-MSN was the only route within 1,780 miles of SEA without nonstop service from SEA that had a PDEW of 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021.

The other domestic markets not served nonstop from SEA that had PDEW's of at least 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021 such as GRR, JAX, MEM, and ORF are all more than 1,800 miles from SEA.

The other top domestic markets without nonstop service from SEA that are within 1,780 miles of SEA such as COS, DSM, XNA, and TUL all had PDEW's of fewer than 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021.


SEA-MSN is served seasonally by SY. I know this thread only pertains to the four “traditional” carriers, but it’s not correct to say MSN is without non-stop service from SEA.
 
ATLgaUSA
Posts: 299
Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2005 6:58 am

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:51 pm

jplatts wrote:
Here are the top domestic routes out of AA/DL/UA/AS hub markets within 1780 mi not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS that had market PDEW's of at least 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021:
BOS-GSP/TYS/OKC/OMA/SAT (market PDEW's include PVD/MHT in addition to BOS)
DEN-ALB/AVL/BUF/MYR
DTW-PNS
IAH-BUF/GEG (market PDEW's include HOU in addition to IAH)
MIA-ABQ/AVL/BUF/ELP/LEX/MYR (market PDEW's include FLL in addition to MIA)
LAX-CID/DSM/LIT/MFE/MKE/SGF/ICT (market PDEW's include BUR/LGB/ONT/SNA in addition to LAX)
MSP-PNS
NYC-LIT/MFE/TUL (market PDEW's include LGA/JFK/EWR/ISP/SWF/HPN, MFE outside of LGA perimeter)
PHX-ATW/BHM/BZN/COS/LIT/SDF/MSO/MLI/SBN/SGF/PNS/PIA/ICT (market PDEW's include AZA in addition to PHX)
PDX-OMA/STL/SAT
SLC-CLE/CMH/IND/PIT
SFO-TUL (market PDEW's include OAK/SJC in addition to SFO)
WAS-ABQ/COS/ELP (market PDEW's include DCA/IAD/BWI, ABQ/COS/ELP outside of DCA perimeter)

The routes listed above are likely within the range of E-175 regional jets as all of the routes listed above are shorter than ORD-EUG (the longest route within the contiguous U.S. that is served nonstop on E-175 regional jets).

Which of the above routes are likely to be added by AA, DL, UA, or AS?


Did BOS-BHM really drop below 45 pax/day?
 
ATLgaUSA
Posts: 299
Joined: Fri Mar 04, 2005 6:58 am

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:58 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
AC4500 wrote:
We're now seeing AS fly PDX-AUS/DFW/ORD with E75s instead of thinner markets like PDX-MKE/OMA/STL. However, during the slower winter travel season, the long westbound flights (specifically ORD-PDX) often divert to SLC or BOI for fuel stops. The stronger jetstream in the winter season does not bode well for a range-restricted fleet if E75s.


The OP applied an interesting distance limit: within nominal E75 or CR9 range, I suppose? Yes, winter winds will mess with that. The longest CR9 Delta Connection route I recall is MSP-YVR at 1,436sm, and that was summer-seasonal. (Please correct me if they had anything longer.)

Aren't AA/DL/UA fully scoped out on 76-seaters, anyway? That really only leaves AS as capable of expanding their fleet (although I don't know details of the AS/QX contracts). B6 hasn't shown any interest in that size class. WN, F9, NK, G4 -- forget it.

Sure, you can leave out seats to make them scope-compliant: 70 seats at DL. 64(?) at AA? That just messes with CASM and makes them less competitive with mainline and LCCs/ULCCs.

IMHO, the distance filter is too long, the PDEW of 45 is way too low, and the whole analysis ignores the value of frequent connections and the competition from driveable airports. Birmingham doesn't lack air service: it's a 2:20 drive to the largest hub in the country. Why isn't there a n/s BHM-LAX: 15 nonstops a day on 3 different operating carriers ATL-LAX.


It's a 2:20 drive to the airport, but then you have to park at a park&fly, take a bus to the terminal, and deal with ATL check in lines. Basically, you have to leave BHM four hours and twenty minutes before your flight. That's terribly inconvenient. Do people do it? Absolutely. Would those same people fly out of BHM if fares were more competitive and there were more nonstop options? Absolutely.
 
joeljack
Posts: 718
Joined: Fri Feb 25, 2005 12:38 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:05 pm

PDX-OMA operated prior to covid on AS seasonally. I really hope it comes back, it had high loads! I personally know a few people that used this route regularly.
 
jplatts
Topic Author
Posts: 5572
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:19 pm

ATLgaUSA wrote:
Did BOS-BHM really drop below 45 pax/day?


The PDEW of BHM-BOS/MHT/PVD was 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021, but that PDEW includes those connecting to MHT or PVD from BHM in addition to those connecting to BOS from BHM.
 
Scoots71
Posts: 131
Joined: Wed Feb 12, 2020 3:13 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Thu Jan 13, 2022 2:33 pm

jplatts wrote:
ATLgaUSA wrote:
Did BOS-BHM really drop below 45 pax/day?


The PDEW of BHM-BOS/MHT/PVD was 45 passengers/day in Q2 2021, but that PDEW includes those connecting to MHT or PVD from BHM in addition to those connecting to BOS from BHM.


Again though, I would be more curious to see the Q3 numbers, especially since June is when travel really began to pick back up over 75% of its pre-pandemic levels at BHM.
 
jplatts
Topic Author
Posts: 5572
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 6:42 pm

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Sun Feb 20, 2022 7:11 pm

Scoots71 wrote:
Again though, I would be more curious to see the Q3 numbers, especially since June is when travel really began to pick back up over 75% of its pre-pandemic levels at BHM.


Here were the top domestic routes out of AA/DL/UA/AS hub markets within 1780 mi not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS that had market PDEW's of at least 45 passengers/day in Q3 2021:
BOS-BHM/DSM/GRR/GSP/TYS/MSN/ACK/OKC/OMA/SAT (market PDEW's include PVD/MHT in addition to BOS)
DFW-ALB (market PDEW's include DAL in addition to DFW)
DEN-ALB/AVL/BUF/GRB/MYR/ROC
DTW-PNS
IAH-BUF/GEG/PWM (market PDEW's include HOU in addition to IAH)
MIA-ABQ/AVL/BUF/ELP/LEX/MYR (market PDEW's include FLL in addition to MIA)
LAX-CID/DSM/FAR/JAN/LIT/MFE/MKE/RAP/SHV/FSD/SGF/ICT (market PDEW's include BUR/LGB/ONT/SNA in addition to LAX)
MSP-FAT/RNO
NYC-ASE/VPS/HYA/LIT/MFE/ECP/TUL (market PDEW's include LGA/JFK/EWR/ISP/SWF/HPN, ASE/MFE outside of LGA perimeter)
PHL-ABQ/OKC/OMA/SAT
PHX-ATW/BHM/BZN/COS/FCA/LIT/SDF/MSO/PSC/PNS/PIA/SBN/SGF/TVC/ICT (market PDEW's include AZA in addition to PHX)
PDX-DSM/MKE/OKC/OMA/STL/SAT
SLC-CLE/CMH/IND/PIT
SEA-COS/DSM/MSN/TUL
SFO-COS/DSM/ELP/TUL (market PDEW's include OAK/SJC in addition to SFO)
WAS-ABQ/COS/ELP/JAC (market PDEW's include DCA/IAD/BWI, ABQ/COS/ELP/JAC outside of DCA perimeter)
 
flight152
Posts: 3546
Joined: Fri Nov 24, 2000 8:04 am

Re: Top domestic routes within 1780 mi by Q2 2021 PDEW's not served nonstop by AA/DL/UA/AS

Sun Feb 20, 2022 7:20 pm

flycmh2009 wrote:
Interesting list. For domestic narrowbody service, I see a lot of long, thin routes that would a) barely even support E175 service with only 45 PDEW or b) because of distance, could only be served by a mainline aircraft. IAH-BUF/GEG, as an example, on this list stands out for these reasons. Barely doable in fair weather conditions on the E175, let alone with winter headwinds. I really don't see any airline taking the chance of doing that with 45 PDEW.

Also, considering this data is from Q2 2021, it's very clearly pandemic-driven demand. It'll be interesting going forward to see how/where demand dictates new service until there's a meaningful recovery in business traffic.


IAH-BUF is nowhere near the limit for the 175.

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