RDU may seem small but for it’s 15 Million passengers it saw pre-covid, it deserved more than 7 international flights. RDU will soon see the addition of KEF to their network and the resumption of CDG, LHR, YUL in mid-2022 but will only bring the airport to 6 international flights. The airport did briefly serve MBJ during Covid but really the only reason it didn’t work is because JetBlue brought it in during the peak of the pandemic with almost no physical presence in the community.

The airport has now recovered 75% of its international traffic since 2019 and is expected to have that fully return by Q3 2022. As of right now, it’s split 65/35 in favor of leisure traffic which shows we also need more leisure destinations. MEX has always been high on the airport’s list and has had high passenger counts but no airline has established service on the route. Also potential with YVR.

In terms of intercontinental traffic, RDU could also really use flights to South America, Asia and even more Europe frequencies. RDU has recently suggested flights to Dublin, which would be great as flights could come in at by time of day regardless if FIS is open. AMS and FRA had also nearly been secured prior to Covid and with that number returning, these flights would be great to have. The airport has 4 international gates but almost never utilized them for international traffic and really should.

American noted they want another airport to experience an expansion like they had at AUS (which brought new int’l service) and it’s almost stuck between BNA & RDU. Hopefully, this means well for RDU and can put RDU on the map. I can really see RDU being the next PHL in 15 years time and they need international flights for that.

AA had a hub at RDU from the mid 1980s until 1994. Their stated reason for dehubbing RDU was to grow MIA. And now that they have CLT, they don't need RDU.

vatveng wrote:

AA had a hub at RDU from the mid 1980s until 1994. Their stated reason for dehubbing RDU was to grow MIA. And now that they have CLT, they don't need RDU.

Well, the real issue at the time was major competition with US Airways in Charlotte, United in Greensboro, and then still not all that far away, other airline hubs in Atlanta and DC. But since then, the market size has tripled.

Bentheswim11 wrote:

vatveng wrote:

AA had a hub at RDU from the mid 1980s until 1994. Their stated reason for dehubbing RDU was to grow MIA. And now that they have CLT, they don't need RDU.

Well, the real issue at the time was major competition with US Airways in Charlotte, United in Greensboro, and then still not all that far away, other airline hubs in Atlanta and DC. But since then, the market size has tripled.

Right. So if you had an international market that was 20 PDEW then, maybe it's 80 PDEW now (I think it's probably true that international demand growth has outpaced demand growth in general). That's still likely not enough for a daily widebody.

Not to take the wind out of RDU's sails or anything, but some of those ambitions are seemingly too ambitious, in my opinion. There are a number of issues that I would consider to be insurmountable hurdles that would hinder such opportunities.

I think flights to Asia or South America are probably somewhat unlikely — metropolitan Phoenix is roughly 2.5x the size of the Research Triangle, and the airport handled more than 3x the traffic pre-covid with two fully established hub tenants, but they have long lacked flights to Asia and South America. I know that to an extent it's an apples and oranges comparison, but they both have similar issues in that they're geographically close to much larger, more attractive airports for international service. Not only is CLT very close by, but IAD and ATL are both within an hour's flight away.

All of that aside, RDU doesn't have the infrastructure to handle any sort of significant increases. That's part of the reason why it's never stuck as a hub. The parallel runways were built too close together to practically permit simultaneous approaches, so without that ability, they can't handle the arrival rate a hub requires. The flows and airspace structure also can't handle a significant increase in traffic because it simply isn't built for it, and given that it's squeezed between CLT and the DC metros, it would be very difficult to restructure the airspace to cope with a significant demand increase on the ARTCC side, and it would require the airspace being upgraded from a Class Charlie to a Class Bravo on the approach side. I don't think a Bravo upgrade has been done in about three decades, and the associated legal battles with airspace restructuring take many, many years to navigate.

I think it's possible that RDU could score another flight to Europe, but I wouldn't anticipate much more then that, nor would I anticipate any sort of significant growth in the foreseeable future. Modest gains, sure, but probably not much more than that.

It's lovely 15 million people or so were flying out of there in 2019 - but are you saying there needs to be flight to XXX just because of your opinion, or just because it looks good on paper, or are you actually following where the people are traveling and have that information available to back up for discussion?

15 million is a nice number, but if 14 million are just trips to Florida - or what have you - then it's all just moot. If 14 million of those trips are to Rome - then sure, let's talk about why there's no service.

Has it been 30 years since the last TCA, I mean Class B? Wow!

Bentheswim11 wrote:

RDU may seem small but for it’s 15 Million passengers it saw pre-covid, it deserved more than 7 international flights.

As of right now, it’s split 65/35 in favor of leisure traffic which shows we also need more leisure destinations. MEX has always been high on the airport’s list and has had high passenger counts but no airline has established service on the route. Also potential with YVR.

In terms of intercontinental traffic, RDU could also really use flights to South America, Asia and even more Europe frequencies.

Deserved?

Do you want to show some PDEWs to back up those assertions?

CLT doesn’t even have flights to South America and Asia and you think RDU can support them?

Heck PHL (the airport you said RDU could become) has no flights to South America and only Doha in Asia.

As I believe it is a focus city for DL, more likely to see possibly AMS if CDG is performing well and maybe MEX on Aeromexico. None of this is likely to happen until we are in a different place pandemic wise.

bfitzflyer wrote:

As I believe it is a focus city for DL, more likely to see possibly AMS if CDG is performing well and maybe MEX on Aeromexico. None of this is likely to happen until we are in a different place pandemic wise.

Additionally, DL is probably a bit more preoccupied with growing BOS and NYC with all the NEA drama as opposed to RDU and such. Plus, not even BOS has a flight to MEX and that's bound to happen long before RDU-MEX. I'm not confident that either MEX-BOS/RDU will happen anytime soon.

I'm not so familiar with the RDU metro, but they seem to have a distinct lack of Caribbean destinations when compared to other similar NE cities. No NAS, PUJ, etc... are those things that F9 would try?

sfojvjets wrote:

bfitzflyer wrote:

As I believe it is a focus city for DL, more likely to see possibly AMS if CDG is performing well and maybe MEX on Aeromexico. None of this is likely to happen until we are in a different place pandemic wise.

Additionally, DL is probably a bit more preoccupied with growing BOS and NYC with all the NEA drama as opposed to RDU and such. Plus, not even BOS has a flight to MEX and that's bound to happen long before RDU-MEX. I'm not confident that either MEX-BOS/RDU will happen anytime soon.

I'm not so familiar with the RDU metro, but they seem to have a distinct lack of Caribbean destinations when compared to other similar NE cities. No NAS, PUJ, etc... are those things that F9 would try?

Given that RDU-ATL-MEX is a rather easy and direct option, I wouldn't hold my breath on RDU-MEX. BOS-MEX didn't work for a few reasons, including it being a lot of airplane time for a not huge NDOD; RDU would be even thinner.

Add in the fact that AM is still in bankruptcy, I doubt route additions are coming back anytime soon.

GalaxyFlyer wrote:

Has it been 30 years since the last TCA, I mean Class B? Wow!

Don't quote me on that, but that's the number I've heard repeated by people who know those sorts of things. Either way, it always ends up being a huge legal battle that gets dragged out in courts for years. It ends up costing the government so much money to make significant airspace changes that it's really not worth it unless there a truly compelling reason.

atcsundevil wrote:

Not to take the wind out of RDU's sails or anything, but some of those ambitions are seemingly too ambitious, in my opinion. There are a number of issues that I would consider to be insurmountable hurdles that would hinder such opportunities.

I think flights to Asia or South America are probably somewhat unlikely — metropolitan Phoenix is roughly 2.5x the size of the Research Triangle, and the airport handled more than 3x the traffic pre-covid with two fully established hub tenants, but they have long lacked flights to Asia and South America. I know that to an extent it's an apples and oranges comparison, but they both have similar issues in that they're geographically close to much larger, more attractive airports for international service. Not only is CLT very close by, but IAD and ATL are both within an hour's flight away.

All of that aside, RDU doesn't have the infrastructure to handle any sort of significant increases. That's part of the reason why it's never stuck as a hub. The parallel runways were built too close together to practically permit simultaneous approaches, so without that ability, they can't handle the arrival rate a hub requires. The flows and airspace structure also can't handle a significant increase in traffic because it simply isn't built for it, and given that it's squeezed between CLT and the DC metros, it would be very difficult to restructure the airspace to cope with a significant demand increase on the ARTCC side, and it would require the airspace being upgraded from a Class Charlie to a Class Bravo on the approach side. I don't think a Bravo upgrade has been done in about three decades, and the associated legal battles with airspace restructuring take many, many years to navigate.

I think it's possible that RDU could score another flight to Europe, but I wouldn't anticipate much more then that, nor would I anticipate any sort of significant growth in the foreseeable future. Modest gains, sure, but probably not much more than that.

Future plans will help change that. FIS will double capacity in 2023, replacement runway will be built 500 feet to the north of 5L/23R (opens in 2025) with up to 37 new gates at RDU by 2040. At least 13 already confirmed to open by 2028. RDU has a population of 6.5 Million within an hour and a half drive. RDU having more traffic than PHX to China in 2018. RDU was 18th, PHX did not make the top 20. RDU since growing with Fujifilm, Apple, Google, Clorox announcing more than $5B combined in expansion and IBM now having 25,000 employees in the Raleigh area.

Polot wrote:

CLT doesn’t even have flights to South America and Asia and you think RDU can support them?

Heck PHL (the airport you said RDU could become) has no flights to South America and only Doha in Asia.

In 2014, RDU saw 260,000+ people traveling to Asia. In 2018, Charlotte saw 177,000+ With RDU having more corporate base

sfojvjets wrote:

bfitzflyer wrote:

As I believe it is a focus city for DL, more likely to see possibly AMS if CDG is performing well and maybe MEX on Aeromexico. None of this is likely to happen until we are in a different place pandemic wise.

Additionally, DL is probably a bit more preoccupied with growing BOS and NYC with all the NEA drama as opposed to RDU and such. Plus, not even BOS has a flight to MEX and that's bound to happen long before RDU-MEX. I'm not confident that either MEX-BOS/RDU will happen anytime soon.

I'm not so familiar with the RDU metro, but they seem to have a distinct lack of Caribbean destinations when compared to other similar NE cities. No NAS, PUJ, etc... are those things that F9 would try?

Frontier just started flights to Cancun. Nassau was served in mid-2010s

Bentheswim11 wrote:

RDU may seem small but for it’s 15 Million passengers it saw pre-covid, it deserved more than 7 international flights. RDU will soon see the addition of KEF to their network and the resumption of CDG, LHR, YUL in mid-2022 but will only bring the airport to 6 international flights. The airport did briefly serve MBJ during Covid but really the only reason it didn’t work is because JetBlue brought it in during the peak of the pandemic with almost no physical presence in the community.

The airport has now recovered 75% of its international traffic since 2019 and is expected to have that fully return by Q3 2022. As of right now, it’s split 65/35 in favor of leisure traffic which shows we also need more leisure destinations. MEX has always been high on the airport’s list and has had high passenger counts but no airline has established service on the route. Also potential with YVR.

In terms of intercontinental traffic, RDU could also really use flights to South America, Asia and even more Europe frequencies. RDU has recently suggested flights to Dublin, which would be great as flights could come in at by time of day regardless if FIS is open. AMS and FRA had also nearly been secured prior to Covid and with that number returning, these flights would be great to have. The airport has 4 international gates but almost never utilized them for international traffic and really should.

American noted they want another airport to experience an expansion like they had at AUS (which brought new int’l service) and it’s almost stuck between BNA & RDU. Hopefully, this means well for RDU and can put RDU on the map. I can really see RDU being the next PHL in 15 years time and they need international flights for that.

If AA does another AUS-like expansion, it will most certainly be RDU. BNA has a big WN operation that will likely get to 200+ flights eventually, the yields would be horrible for AA there.

Otherwise, RDU is fine. Most of the market is business and that is down dramatically right now. LHR and CDG were fine pre-pandemic and will be fine for the foreseeable future.

flyoregon wrote:

Bentheswim11 wrote:

atcsundevil wrote:

Not to take the wind out of RDU's sails or anything, but some of those ambitions are seemingly too ambitious, in my opinion. There are a number of issues that I would consider to be insurmountable hurdles that would hinder such opportunities.

I think flights to Asia or South America are probably somewhat unlikely — metropolitan Phoenix is roughly 2.5x the size of the Research Triangle, and the airport handled more than 3x the traffic pre-covid with two fully established hub tenants, but they have long lacked flights to Asia and South America. I know that to an extent it's an apples and oranges comparison, but they both have similar issues in that they're geographically close to much larger, more attractive airports for international service. Not only is CLT very close by, but IAD and ATL are both within an hour's flight away.

All of that aside, RDU doesn't have the infrastructure to handle any sort of significant increases. That's part of the reason why it's never stuck as a hub. The parallel runways were built too close together to practically permit simultaneous approaches, so without that ability, they can't handle the arrival rate a hub requires. The flows and airspace structure also can't handle a significant increase in traffic because it simply isn't built for it, and given that it's squeezed between CLT and the DC metros, it would be very difficult to restructure the airspace to cope with a significant demand increase on the ARTCC side, and it would require the airspace being upgraded from a Class Charlie to a Class Bravo on the approach side. I don't think a Bravo upgrade has been done in about three decades, and the associated legal battles with airspace restructuring take many, many years to navigate.

I think it's possible that RDU could score another flight to Europe, but I wouldn't anticipate much more then that, nor would I anticipate any sort of significant growth in the foreseeable future. Modest gains, sure, but probably not much more than that.

Future plans will help change that. FIS will double capacity in 2023, replacement runway will be built 500 feet to the north of 5L/23R (opens in 2025) with up to 37 new gates at RDU by 2040. At least 13 already confirmed to open by 2028. RDU has a population of 6.5 Million within an hour and a half drive. RDU having more traffic than PHX to China in 2018. RDU was 18th, PHX did not make the top 20. RDU since growing with Fujifilm, Apple, Google, Clorox announcing more than $5B combined in expansion and IBM now having 25,000 employees in the Raleigh area.

And all of that can change at the drop of a hat. (Source: year 2020)

I was gonna say, a lot of that has been put on hold right? RDU doesn’t need any new gates right now, they need to focus on the runway and CONRAC.

No one really knows the trajectory and recovery and future of business/corporate travel especially international in the new world order of increased hybrid/virtual/flexible work and the fact that much of Asia is still essentially closed in early 2022.

Moot point to talk about anything TPAC for RDU when all of the US3 are only flying and projecting to operate a fraction of the pre-pandemic flying TPAC from their core hubs.

Runway765 wrote:

flyoregon wrote:

Bentheswim11 wrote:

Future plans will help change that. FIS will double capacity in 2023, replacement runway will be built 500 feet to the north of 5L/23R (opens in 2025) with up to 37 new gates at RDU by 2040. At least 13 already confirmed to open by 2028. RDU has a population of 6.5 Million within an hour and a half drive. RDU having more traffic than PHX to China in 2018. RDU was 18th, PHX did not make the top 20. RDU since growing with Fujifilm, Apple, Google, Clorox announcing more than $5B combined in expansion and IBM now having 25,000 employees in the Raleigh area.

And all of that can change at the drop of a hat. (Source: year 2020)

I was gonna say, a lot of that has been put on hold right? RDU doesn’t need any new gates right now, they need to focus on the runway and CONRAC.

They put it on hold but they recently resumed all projects and upcoming projects

Bentheswim11 wrote:

Future plans will help change that. FIS will double capacity in 2023, replacement runway will be built 500 feet to the north of 5L/23R (opens in 2025) with up to 37 new gates at RDU by 2040. At least 13 already confirmed to open by 2028. RDU has a population of 6.5 Million within an hour and a half drive. RDU having more traffic than PHX to China in 2018. RDU was 18th, PHX did not make the top 20. RDU since growing with Fujifilm, Apple, Google, Clorox announcing more than $5B combined in expansion and IBM now having 25,000 employees in the Raleigh area.

Future plans don't fix the airspace. The airspace and flows can't handle some massive influx in traffic...it's just not designed for it.

RDU is sandwiched between IAD, CLT, ATL (and a lesser extent JFK) that all have (pre-pandemic) massive amounts of international feed. Only the top 2-3 connecting hubs can support service everything else has to go over a domestic or international hub,

PSU.DTW.SCE wrote:

RDU is sandwiched between IAD, CLT, ATL (and a lesser extent JFK) that all have (pre-pandemic) massive amounts of international feed. Only the top 2-3 connecting hubs can support service everything else has to go over a domestic or international hub,

RDU is busy enough that it has flights to CDG and KEF without competing service from CLT. Not even ATL has a flight to KEF. And certain destinations make better sense for nonstops. For Charlotte, it wouldn’t make sense for them to fly to Beijing if most of their connecting traffic would be going to Tokyo. Most airports they serve also have service to DFW, where connections would be better. This way, they don’t have to skip over Tokyo and then fly back whereas they could fly nonstop but this flight would make sense at RDU or DEN.

Bentheswim11 wrote:

RDU may seem small but for it’s 15 Million passengers it saw pre-covid, it deserved more than 7 international flights. RDU will soon see the addition of KEF to their network and the resumption of CDG, LHR, YUL in mid-2022 but will only bring the airport to 6 international flights. The airport did briefly serve MBJ during Covid but really the only reason it didn’t work is because JetBlue brought it in during the peak of the pandemic with almost no physical presence in the community.

The airport has now recovered 75% of its international traffic since 2019 and is expected to have that fully return by Q3 2022. As of right now, it’s split 65/35 in favor of leisure traffic which shows we also need more leisure destinations. MEX has always been high on the airport’s list and has had high passenger counts but no airline has established service on the route. Also potential with YVR.

In terms of intercontinental traffic, RDU could also really use flights to South America, Asia and even more Europe frequencies. RDU has recently suggested flights to Dublin, which would be great as flights could come in at by time of day regardless if FIS is open. AMS and FRA had also nearly been secured prior to Covid and with that number returning, these flights would be great to have. The airport has 4 international gates but almost never utilized them for international traffic and really should.

American noted they want another airport to experience an expansion like they had at AUS (which brought new int’l service) and it’s almost stuck between BNA & RDU. Hopefully, this means well for RDU and can put RDU on the map. I can really see RDU being the next PHL in 15 years time and they need international flights for that.

PHL? I spent the better part of 30+ years at that airport and you want to know about pain? In the 60s, 70s and 80s, all we could ever muster up was BOAC, LH, Air France (gone), Swissair (gone), Mexicana (bankrupt), Aeronaves/Aeromexico (gone) and Alitalia (gone) all while being the 4th or 5th largest city in America. Even Newark, that was down the road had no international service. I don't need to tell you what happened there as the years went on. Now, you see cities like ATL,DFW,IAH and SEA leaving PHL in the dust, when it comes to international carriers. I don't think there is a city in the nation that has gotten the "shaft" worse than PHL, so i would not strive to be like that airport.

crownvic wrote:

Bentheswim11 wrote:

RDU may seem small but for it’s 15 Million passengers it saw pre-covid, it deserved more than 7 international flights. RDU will soon see the addition of KEF to their network and the resumption of CDG, LHR, YUL in mid-2022 but will only bring the airport to 6 international flights. The airport did briefly serve MBJ during Covid but really the only reason it didn’t work is because JetBlue brought it in during the peak of the pandemic with almost no physical presence in the community.

The airport has now recovered 75% of its international traffic since 2019 and is expected to have that fully return by Q3 2022. As of right now, it’s split 65/35 in favor of leisure traffic which shows we also need more leisure destinations. MEX has always been high on the airport’s list and has had high passenger counts but no airline has established service on the route. Also potential with YVR.

In terms of intercontinental traffic, RDU could also really use flights to South America, Asia and even more Europe frequencies. RDU has recently suggested flights to Dublin, which would be great as flights could come in at by time of day regardless if FIS is open. AMS and FRA had also nearly been secured prior to Covid and with that number returning, these flights would be great to have. The airport has 4 international gates but almost never utilized them for international traffic and really should.

American noted they want another airport to experience an expansion like they had at AUS (which brought new int’l service) and it’s almost stuck between BNA & RDU. Hopefully, this means well for RDU and can put RDU on the map. I can really see RDU being the next PHL in 15 years time and they need international flights for that.

PHL? I spent the better part of 30+ years at that airport and you want to know about pain? In the 60s, 70s and 80s, all we could ever muster up was BOAC, LH, Air France (gone), Swissair (gone), Mexicana (bankrupt), Aeronaves/Aeromexico (gone) and Alitalia (gone) all while being the 4th or 5th largest city in America. Even Newark, that was down the road had no international service. I don't need to tell you what happened there as the years went on. Now, you see cities like ATL,DFW,IAH and SEA leaving PHL in the dust, when it comes to international carriers. I don't think there is a city in the nation that has gotten the "shaft" worse than PHL, so i would not strive to be like that airport.

Not talking about the airport itself but more so the network it has. And in terms of losing carriers, I think RDU has its fair share too. AA dehubbing, Midway going bankrupt, AeroMexico leaving, more airlines dropping services, more airlines going bankrupt, lost service to ORY (in 90s), etc. Delta and JetBlue dropping some 10 routes each in recent months.

Again...moot point on all this in the current era where DL reported that current revenues in Q4 2021 versus Q4 2019 are ~50% in Trans-Atlantic and ~19% on Trans-Pacific.
No new service is being added from anywhere until core hub service is restore.
Need to look at airlines connecting networks holistically before making judgement about RDU's perceived lack of service or connectivity.

As I posted in the RDU Aviation thread the other day, the reality is that the Triangle region is simply a tertiary region that only has a little over two million people. It's great that the region is growing. The level of development occurring throughout the Triangle is fantastic for the region, and the state of North Carolina. Development, however, does not change the fact that the Triangle simply does not have the demand necessary to warrant international long-haul traffic.

By your metric, Nashville warrants a nonstop flight to TYO because of Nissan, Charlotte warrants a nonstop flight to ARN because of Electrolux, etc. Just because companies are opening up offices in the region (as was mentioned above with Apple, Fujifilm, etc.) does not automatically point to the demand and/or need for a long-haul flight. Such demand/need only occurs from decades upon decades of economically-induced linkages between two geographic regions.

RDU-South America is laughable. The Baltimore-Washington CSA (third largest CSA in the country, third highest CSA by real GDP, wealthiest) barely supports two daily flights to South America. RDU-Asia is even more laughable.

Frankly, Raleigh is extremely well-served for a metro area of its size. There are CSAs that are significantly larger (see CLE, CMH, IND, MCI, SAT, PIT, SMF) that would be thrilled to enjoy the level of international service RDU currently has.

If RDU is so "deserving" of international service, why isn't DL bringing back their CDG nonstop until this August (almost at the conclusion of the busy Summer travel season)?

Bentheswim11 wrote:

vatveng wrote:

AA had a hub at RDU from the mid 1980s until 1994. Their stated reason for dehubbing RDU was to grow MIA. And now that they have CLT, they don't need RDU.

Well, the real issue at the time was major competition with US Airways in Charlotte, United in Greensboro, and then still not all that far away, other airline hubs in Atlanta and DC. But since then, the market size has tripled.

Oh boy I forgot about the Piedmont hub

USAirALB wrote:

As I posted in the RDU Aviation thread the other day, the reality is that the Triangle region is simply a tertiary region that only has a little over two million people. It's great that the region is growing. The level of development occurring throughout the Triangle is fantastic for the region, and the state of North Carolina. Development, however, does not change the fact that the Triangle simply does not have the demand necessary to warrant international long-haul traffic.

By your metric, Nashville warrants a nonstop flight to TYO because of Nissan, Charlotte warrants a nonstop flight to ARN because of Electrolux, etc. Just because companies are opening up offices in the region (as was mentioned above with Apple, Fujifilm, etc.) does not automatically point to the demand and/or need for a long-haul flight. Such demand/need only occurs from decades upon decades of economically-induced linkages between two geographic regions.

RDU-South America is laughable. The Baltimore-Washington CSA (third largest CSA in the country, third highest CSA by real GDP, wealthiest) barely supports two daily flights to South America. RDU-Asia is even more laughable.

Frankly, Raleigh is extremely well-served for a metro area of its size. There are CSAs that are significantly larger (see CLE, CMH, IND, MCI, SAT, PIT, SMF) that would be thrilled to enjoy the level of international service RDU currently has.

If RDU is so "deserving" of international service, why isn't DL bringing back their CDG nonstop until this August (almost at the conclusion of the busy Summer travel season)?

I was gonna say, this thread really confused me. RDU has LHR on a 777 (on AA despite their neighboring hub), CDG, YYZ, YUL and now KEF. That's a lot for a mid-sized city. The only thing that is really lacking in comparison to other cities of similar size is Caribbean service

Aeromexico's routes to the U.S. are so limited as it is, I can't see them overflying the largest hub of its SkyTeam partner.

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

Aeromexico's routes to the U.S. are so limited as it is, I can't see them overflying the largest hub of its SkyTeam partner.

Yes, and AM really isn’t in secondary US cities. Heck, AM doesn’t even fly mainline to IAH year-round.

I actually think RDU’s best shot at a new international route in North America, and maybe its best shot at a new international route period, is one folks haven’t mentioned: WS to YYC. There’s northbound tourism and YYC isn’t a terrible hub for western Canada.

vatveng wrote:

AA had a hub at RDU from the mid 1980s until 1994. Their stated reason for dehubbing RDU was to grow MIA. And now that they have CLT, they don't need RDU.

AA had some interesting Int'l flights from RDU hub in the '90s like London and Paris plus a few daily flights in the Caribbean. SXM comes to mind.

All of this can be easily mimicked from the CLT hub and with much greater success since they control nearly 90% of traffic into the airport and at high fares.

I did fly CDG-RDU and back on a DL 757. Was a very pleasant experience as they opened immigration just for us (and the other 150 people on board). Also boarding in CDG was very fast due to the small amount of people compared to a WB aircraft. I needed to go to MCO for a conference and even though it was two stops, ZRH-CDG-RDU-MCO was so much more pleasant then the ZRH-EWR(ORD)-MCO I normally take with LX/UA.

I am actually looking forward to the XLR and the many more smaller routes that will be served with it. The XLR can open additional routes from RDU. It was able to support CDG-RDU, if DL gets XLRs they should be able to add other big cities too like AMS, LON, MAD, BCN(maybe).

I think RDU is an unique airport. Its focus is not to grow rapidly but to grow organically.

So RDU needs to be patient and do not throw money on routes that can not sustain. RDU also needs to be careful not to fly too many overlapping routes to kill off demand on existing routes. For example, now RDU has CDG, it should not give subsidies to try to lure another European carrier to cities like AMS FRA etc. The thinking is the market is limited, when you subsidy another entrant, it may take traffic away from existing routes and in the end loose both. Here patience is the key. When the market is established and is growing, other carrier sees the opportunity and will come to join the feast. It is extremely true post pandemic, carriers will chase the traffic, especially profitable traffic.

Hence RDU should identify two to three key routes that could survive long term and possibly grow. Forget about Asia, forget Africa. And forget about any major European routes that CLT would be flying. Stick to LHR and CDG and make sure both route can thrive.

Next, look at Caribbean vacation cities. Maybe Cancun, maybe Jamaica, maybe Dominican. Start with weekend routes, then maybe weekly or even daily. Look at Canadian cities, maybe people from BC would find the weather great in Wilmington Beach.

I love RDU as an airport. I wish it good luck. But some times you just need to have lower expectations and be patient.

Bentheswim11 wrote:

RDU may seem small but for it’s 15 Million passengers it saw pre-covid, it deserved more than 7 international flights. RDU will soon see the addition of KEF to their network and the resumption of CDG, LHR, YUL in mid-2022 but will only bring the airport to 6 international flights. The airport did briefly serve MBJ during Covid but really the only reason it didn’t work is because JetBlue brought it in during the peak of the pandemic with almost no physical presence in the community.

The airport has now recovered 75% of its international traffic since 2019 and is expected to have that fully return by Q3 2022. As of right now, it’s split 65/35 in favor of leisure traffic which shows we also need more leisure destinations. MEX has always been high on the airport’s list and has had high passenger counts but no airline has established service on the route. Also potential with YVR.

In terms of intercontinental traffic, RDU could also really use flights to South America, Asia and even more Europe frequencies. RDU has recently suggested flights to Dublin, which would be great as flights could come in at by time of day regardless if FIS is open. AMS and FRA had also nearly been secured prior to Covid and with that number returning, these flights would be great to have. The airport has 4 international gates but almost never utilized them for international traffic and really should.

American noted they want another airport to experience an expansion like they had at AUS (which brought new int’l service) and it’s almost stuck between BNA & RDU. Hopefully, this means well for RDU and can put RDU on the map. I can really see RDU being the next PHL in 15 years time and they need international flights for that.

Here is some data on Asia, China is RDU's biggest Asia market, which handicaps any chance at RDU-Asia happening anytime soon. Plus RDU isn't in the top 10 unserved Tokyo markets, or top 25 overall int'l O&D markets(not too suprising).

I personally think RDU is pretty well served internationally.





https://slideplayer.com/slide/14239480/

RDU has more int'l service that many larger cities. It's a metro population of ~2M. Still behind CLT, KC, STL and many others. Yes they have some corporate presence but just not enough to justify. The ORY service was partly aided by the fact that AA was the #1 carrier to Paris at the time until AF pushed the French government to force everyone to CDG disadvantaging AA. It was initially served by a 762...essentially a 752 capacity wise (minus cargo). I had heard as well that what made the ORY do well early on was a cargo contract to carry horse meat which did not renew at a certain point causing a revenue shortfall on the route. Recall also that the initial LHR service was a 763 with a crazy F guarantee (very unusual). It took some time for that route to organically grow.

While many people will try to throw the GSO/Piedmont area into their catchment, the reality is that population just as easily can drive to CLT which offers plenty of nonstop options. Having lost the leadership teams from BB&T (now in CLT as part of Truist) and increasingly Wake Forest Baptist healthcare (migrating to CLT under Atrium), RDU doesn't have much to capture there.

RDU suffers from the fact that it's just a bit too far from Europe for a TATL narrowbody, and that EK has nothing smaller than a 772LR. RDU also suffers from being predominantly and outbound market.
Post Pandemic with the introduction of the A321XLR and EK receiving their 789's, I could definitely see service to DXB and possibly more service to Europe. Frankly, with Portugal being as popular a destination for Americans has it has been I'm surprised that TAP hasn't tried a seasonal LIS-RDU with the A321LR.
And yes I know that DL once served RDU-CDG with a 752 but they quickly went up to 763. No way to know whether it was due to demand or aircraft performance but that's never a bad sign.

TWFlyGuy wrote:

While many people will try to throw the GSO/Piedmont area into their catchment, the reality is that population just as easily can drive to CLT which offers plenty of nonstop options.

As someone who has done it both ways, Greensboro-RDU is a far more pleasant drive than Greensboro-CLT due to where the airports are located within their respective metros. About 1 hour to RDU (don't have to go through Raleigh), about 2 hours to CLT. Same goes for Wilmington and Fayetteville, drive to RDU is 50% of the time/distance than to CLT, distance and lack of interstate connections make RDU far more palatable for drive/fly. Winston-Salem and High Point could go either way. CLT attracts more drive/fly from Western NC (Asheville) and South Carolina than the other larger population centers in NC.

This and other reasons is why RDU punches above its weight for a metro of "just" 2.1 million. YoY growth consistently in the 2-3% range plays a role as well. I don't think RDU is lacking international destinations, perhaps more to the Dominican Republic, and more frequency on SJU (though is domestic). It'd just be nice to see LHR and CDG come back. Low cost flights to Europe via Icelandair also makes sense, at least as an experiment. It might work.

PS: people love to talk how business links to or don't spur routes...I think it has an impact but not a necessarily large one. That said, comparing the likes of Apple (#1 in market cap) and Google (#3 in market cap) opening up large operations with high paying jobs in the Triangle to the likes of Nissan or BB&T or Wake Forest Baptist Healthcare? Is borderline asinine. Apple/Google in Raleigh/Durham is a BIG deal for the region, like it or not.

mgoose2 wrote:

TWFlyGuy wrote:

While many people will try to throw the GSO/Piedmont area into their catchment, the reality is that population just as easily can drive to CLT which offers plenty of nonstop options.

PS: people love to talk how business links to or don't spur routes...I think it has an impact but not a necessarily large one. That said, comparing the likes of Apple (#1 in market cap) and Google (#3 in market cap) opening up large operations with high paying jobs in the Triangle to the likes of Nissan or BB&T or Wake Forest Baptist Healthcare? Is borderline asinine. Apple/Google in Raleigh/Durham is a BIG deal for the region, like it or not.

I don't know the Triad well enough to comment one way or the other on how BB&T and Wake Forest Baptist Healthcare impact demand, but Nissan's Americas headquarters in Nashville absolutely impacts demand. It's a big reason BNA-TYO is so much bigger than RDU-TYO. Heck, for a long time Nissan had reserved parking spaces in the short-term garage at BNA. The question on these businesses is really propensity to travel for the specific operation in the city at issue. If Facebook parked a bunch of content moderators in Raleigh/Durham, that wouldn't lead to much travel. If Facebook moved executives to Raleigh/Durham, that would.

Cubsrule wrote:

If Facebook parked a bunch of content moderators in Raleigh/Durham, that wouldn't lead to much travel. If Facebook moved executives to Raleigh/Durham, that would.

Right, an Amazon distribution center is not the same thing as HQ2! In both Apple/Google's case we are talking engineering hubs in Durham and RTP focused on cloud tech. Multiple directors and perhaps some VPs will be based out of these hubs.

mgoose2 wrote:

Cubsrule wrote:

If Facebook parked a bunch of content moderators in Raleigh/Durham, that wouldn't lead to much travel. If Facebook moved executives to Raleigh/Durham, that would.

Right, an Amazon distribution center is not the same thing as HQ2! In both Apple/Google's case we are talking engineering hubs in Durham and RTP focused on cloud tech. Multiple directors and perhaps some VPs will be based out of these hubs.

This is a good point but the same applies...the Apple/Google jobs, even as directors, may not be travel jobs. They can use webcams too. The point I was making about BB&T & Wake Baptist jobs leaving is that area is losing high paying people and all of their travel to CLT...including leisure. A lot of people think because BofA is based in CLT that floats a lot of corporate travel...it doesn't. BofA has been using virtual meeting technology for quite a while. Is there some travel, absolutely, but not as much as people imagine. The same will go for a lot of these companies. Just saying Apple has a presence in city X doesn't necessarily grab you tons of corporate travel. Same with Google. Those companies are invested heavily in connecting people virtually. They do it internally too...

USAirALB wrote:

As I posted in the RDU Aviation thread the other day, the reality is that the Triangle region is simply a tertiary region that only has a little over two million people. It's great that the region is growing. The level of development occurring throughout the Triangle is fantastic for the region, and the state of North Carolina. Development, however, does not change the fact that the Triangle simply does not have the demand necessary to warrant international long-haul traffic.

By your metric, Nashville warrants a nonstop flight to TYO because of Nissan, Charlotte warrants a nonstop flight to ARN because of Electrolux, etc. Just because companies are opening up offices in the region (as was mentioned above with Apple, Fujifilm, etc.) does not automatically point to the demand and/or need for a long-haul flight. Such demand/need only occurs from decades upon decades of economically-induced linkages between two geographic regions.

RDU-South America is laughable. The Baltimore-Washington CSA (third largest CSA in the country, third highest CSA by real GDP, wealthiest) barely supports two daily flights to South America. RDU-Asia is even more laughable.

Frankly, Raleigh is extremely well-served for a metro area of its size. There are CSAs that are significantly larger (see CLE, CMH, IND, MCI, SAT, PIT, SMF) that would be thrilled to enjoy the level of international service RDU currently has.

If RDU is so "deserving" of international service, why isn't DL bringing back their CDG nonstop until this August (almost at the conclusion of the busy Summer travel season)?

Some of it truly isn’t laughable. And the market size is much different than you actually claim it is. Sure the immediate market size is 2 million but a 90-minute radius would count 6.5 million people. South America isn’t too laughable when you consider it’s mainly leisure and only needs to operate on a single isle aircraft. I’m not saying Nashville or Charlotte want flights for those specific reasons but you know it’s something the airports still strive to have. And the big reason Delta isn’t bringing back the route until August is because that’s just how Delta is running right now. Their flights to London from Boston, Detroit and Seattle aren’t even scheduled to resume until this summer either. And sure those cities would love the network but they don’t have a comparable market. Most of these airports listed have previously had flights to Europe, and they failed. British airways will finally be resuming the service to Pittsburgh but its clear the market isn’t as strong as it needs to be, meanwhile, we have that. Raleigh was ranked the 25th richest us city in 2018 and is one of the few cities to grow as much as it has, only behind Austin which will have roughly 25 international departures per day. This is the type of network I’m talking about. I’m not talking about flights to every single European airport, but, they still fly to some 14 destinations internationally, while Raleigh only has half that despite having less competition from other airports

Bentheswim11 wrote:

Some of it truly isn’t laughable. And the market size is much different than you actually claim it is. Sure the immediate market size is 2 million but a 90-minute radius would count 6.5 million people. South America isn’t too laughable when you consider it’s mainly leisure and only needs to operate on a single isle aircraft. I’m not saying Nashville or Charlotte want flights for those specific reasons but you know it’s something the airports still strive to have. And the big reason Delta isn’t bringing back the route until August is because that’s just how Delta is running right now. Their flights to London from Boston, Detroit and Seattle aren’t even scheduled to resume until this summer either. And sure those cities would love the network but they don’t have a comparable market. Most of these airports listed have previously had flights to Europe, and they failed. British airways will finally be resuming the service to Pittsburgh but its clear the market isn’t as strong as it needs to be, meanwhile, we have that. Raleigh was ranked the 25th richest us city in 2018 and is one of the few cities to grow as much as it has, only behind Austin which will have roughly 25 international departures per day. This is the type of network I’m talking about. I’m not talking about flights to every single European airport, but, they still fly to some 14 destinations internationally, while Raleigh only has half that despite having less competition from other airports

A couple of things.

1) The population within a 100 mile radius of RDU is about 2.8 million. That is all that is relevant here. RDU has several midsized and large airports within a couple of hours. Nobody is going to drive from the Charlotte metro area to fly out of RDU. You would probably get some bleed from Greensboro and Fayetteville but not from that far. RDU is not DEN or SLC where they are the only options for hundreds of miles.

2) RDU doesnt have the O&D for Asia or South America. Because there is no hub at RDU, the O&D has to make up for it. That works fine for a place like LHR but not for NRT or GRU.

3) RDU is not Austin. If we look at O&D demand, its exploding in ways that its contemporaries (Nashville, Raleigh, Charlotte, etc.) havent been able to match in speed. Its a combo of crazy fast growth, a growing tourism industry, and all the tech giants moving there.

4) A lot of what drives international travel is ethnic travel. RDU doesnt have a substantial amount of that.

I like Raleigh. My cousin lives there and loves it. Im not saying some additions wont be forthcoming but you can count out South America and Asia. Whatever adds do take place will probably tied to the Triangle.

Bentheswim11 wrote:

And the big reason Delta isn’t bringing back the route until August is because that’s just how Delta is running right now. Their flights to London from Boston, Detroit and Seattle aren’t even scheduled to resume until this summer either. And sure those cities would love the network but they don’t have a comparable market. Most of these airports listed have previously had flights to Europe, and they failed.

This is where I take issue. You’re using pre-covid info to prop up RDU, and post covid info to compare other airports.

Let’s use Boston, since I’m most familiar with it. You claim Delta isn’t operating this flight because it failed? 2018 (summer) BOS-LHR was flown 2x a day on Delta, 5x on BA, 2x on VS, and I think 1 or 2x to LGW on Norwegian. Delta “failed” because the global economy came to a very sudden stop. And it’s not planned to come back immediately because there’s still the whole matter of covid.

Following the logic of this thread, SJC should be the busiest airport in the world. Big metropolitan area, tons of tech companies, lots of other businesses. And yet it’s not, because that’s just simply not how airports work.

Flights to LHR, CDG and KEF is more than many larger cities in Europe can offer to North America.

ERJ170 wrote:

But I am still whole heartedly positive UA added the United Club for an international flight or for a Star Alliance flight.. I just know they did..

I personally wouldn't put much stock into that theory. They're building a new Club at PHX, and there's a 0% chance they'll open an international route there. It likely just means they have a higher percentage of elite/business travelers who expect a lounge to be offered.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

Bentheswim11 wrote:

Some of it truly isn’t laughable. And the market size is much different than you actually claim it is. Sure the immediate market size is 2 million but a 90-minute radius would count 6.5 million people. South America isn’t too laughable when you consider it’s mainly leisure and only needs to operate on a single isle aircraft. I’m not saying Nashville or Charlotte want flights for those specific reasons but you know it’s something the airports still strive to have. And the big reason Delta isn’t bringing back the route until August is because that’s just how Delta is running right now. Their flights to London from Boston, Detroit and Seattle aren’t even scheduled to resume until this summer either. And sure those cities would love the network but they don’t have a comparable market. Most of these airports listed have previously had flights to Europe, and they failed. British airways will finally be resuming the service to Pittsburgh but its clear the market isn’t as strong as it needs to be, meanwhile, we have that. Raleigh was ranked the 25th richest us city in 2018 and is one of the few cities to grow as much as it has, only behind Austin which will have roughly 25 international departures per day. This is the type of network I’m talking about. I’m not talking about flights to every single European airport, but, they still fly to some 14 destinations internationally, while Raleigh only has half that despite having less competition from other airports

A couple of things.

1) The population within a 100 mile radius of RDU is about 2.8 million. That is all that is relevant here. RDU has several midsized and large airports within a couple of hours. Nobody is going to drive from the Charlotte metro area to fly out of RDU. You would probably get some bleed from Greensboro and Fayetteville but not from that far. RDU is not DEN or SLC where they are the only options for hundreds of miles.

2) RDU doesnt have the O&D for Asia or South America. Because there is no hub at RDU, the O&D has to make up for it. That works fine for a place like LHR but not for NRT or GRU.

3) RDU is not Austin. If we look at O&D demand, its exploding in ways that its contemporaries (Nashville, Raleigh, Charlotte, etc.) havent been able to match in speed. Its a combo of crazy fast growth, a growing tourism industry, and all the tech giants moving there.

4) A lot of what drives international travel is ethnic travel. RDU doesnt have a substantial amount of that.

I like Raleigh. My cousin lives there and loves it. Im not saying some additions wont be forthcoming but you can count out South America and Asia. Whatever adds do take place will probably tied to the Triangle.

I’d say the O&D is still pretty high. In 2018, to China alone it still ranked 18th best in the county at 58,000 pax per year, which would go up knowing it would take most of RDU’s Asian traffic and help with connections.

On average, every year, 2,350 people move from China to Raleigh and 2,700 move from India to Raleigh, so there’s that change to consider too.