USAirALB wrote:

A city being a state capital (capital is the city, capitol is the building where government meets)

Yes, thanks for taking the time out of your day to clarify this!

I can't believe this thread has so many posts, and now. . . . I'm contributing!

I don't buy the comparisons of tourism RDU and Austin. Yes sure Austin has these glitzy festivals, but RDU is the nearest, and the lowest cost airport near the outer banks, it's not all that far from portions of the mountains, namely Boone (OK GSO is closer but RDU has so many more flight options), and also it's close to Pinehurst, which is one of the nation's golf meccas. To extent college travel counts as tourism, such as visiting parents, traveling sports teams, students traveling to and fro, I would say perhaps it's a wash, or maybe a slight EDGE to RDU with three major universities, compared to one giant one.

ncflyer wrote:

I can't believe this thread has so many posts, and now. . . . I'm contributing!

I don't buy the comparisons of tourism RDU and Austin. Yes sure Austin has these glitzy festivals, but RDU is the nearest, and the lowest cost airport near the outer banks, it's not all that far from portions of the mountains, namely Boone (OK GSO is closer but RDU has so many more flight options), and also it's close to Pinehurst, which is one of the nation's golf meccas. To extent college travel counts as tourism, such as visiting parents, traveling sports teams, students traveling to and fro, I would say perhaps it's a wash, or maybe a slight EDGE to RDU with three major universities, compared to one giant one.

ORF is quite a bit closer to the Outer Banks (which is still mostly a drive destination), and CLT is about an hour's drive shorter to Boone than RDU.

stlgph wrote:

All in all - I'd give it 5 years and the same discussions we're having now about Austin, we'll be having about Raleigh/Durham.

This comment makes a lot of sense given both the pandemic and the growth in the Triangle.

Runway765 wrote:

stlgph wrote:

All in all - I'd give it 5 years and the same discussions we're having now about Austin, we'll be having about Raleigh/Durham.

Nah. Austin is on a whole different level than Raleigh/Durham. Way faster growing with both business and tourism demand, and combined with nearby San Antonio, it forms a defacto mega-region with over 5 million people.

To be fair, the potential of North Carolina as a tourist destination is huge, probably more so than Austin and San Antonio. Europeans don't really know the NC coast and its beaches. The outer banks are a complete unknown in European tourist circles while everybody knows Texas. If Condor can sell Cape Cod to Europeans and BA can sell Charleston to the English then someone ought to be able to sell the OBX.

USAirALB wrote:

You are ignoring the fact that Austin has a thriving tourist sector that Raleigh overall lacks.

Mostly domestic tourism which is kind of irrelevant in the context of this thread. I bet most tourists on those European routes are predominantly outbound and that's really where Austin has an advantage over Raleigh, it's their larger volume of travelers.

Runway765 wrote:

On what evidence will Raleigh/Durham be the next Austin?

Actually it's the other way around, Austin became the next RTP. RTP was created in 1959 and right away it started attracting companies like IBM. Have you looked at the concentration of Universities and tech and life sciences companies in and around Raleigh? Austin pretty much followed RTP's model. That it might be bigger now doesn't change the fact that it came after RTP.

Bentheswim11 wrote:

I’m not talking about just Europe though. I’m also talking within North America. RDU really wants, and can support flights to MEX but have been unable to secure flights.

Not even BOS could make MEX work, and PTY has been a struggle, so I don't see how RDU could have service to MEX, or PTY as some suggested. MEX, and Latin America in general is really difficult outside of a handful of cities or hubs.

ncflyer wrote:

I can't believe this thread has so many posts, and now. . . . I'm contributing!

I don't buy the comparisons of tourism RDU and Austin. Yes sure Austin has these glitzy festivals, but RDU is the nearest, and the lowest cost airport near the outer banks, it's not all that far from portions of the mountains, namely Boone (OK GSO is closer but RDU has so many more flight options), and also it's close to Pinehurst, which is one of the nation's golf meccas. To extent college travel counts as tourism, such as visiting parents, traveling sports teams, students traveling to and fro, I would say perhaps it's a wash, or maybe a slight EDGE to RDU with three major universities, compared to one giant one.

CLT is actually the closest airport to Boone, followed by GSO. Frankly it's moot because the NC Mountains are a drive destination (as is the Outer Banks, see below) and tourists are not flying into any NC airport in large numbers to visit Boone. I doubt large numbers of people are flying into RDU for college-related visits, as in the case of NC State, just 663 students in their 2023 class is from out of state. Likewise, NC law states that no more than 18% of students at an UNC school can be from out of state (to be fair, in Texas the law is even lower at 10%).

If people fly to RDU to visit Pinehurst, sure they are flying into Raleigh, but they are doing nothing in the Triangle itself when it comes to tourism. When people visit Austin, they are actually staying in Austin. Look at the number of upscale hotels and resorts within Austin (especially downtown)...Raleigh has none of that. You can't say Austin and Raleigh tourism is the same if people are physically leaving Raleigh to stay elsewhere, as you just said.

airbazar wrote:

Runway765 wrote:

stlgph wrote:

All in all - I'd give it 5 years and the same discussions we're having now about Austin, we'll be having about Raleigh/Durham.

Nah. Austin is on a whole different level than Raleigh/Durham. Way faster growing with both business and tourism demand, and combined with nearby San Antonio, it forms a defacto mega-region with over 5 million people.

To be fair, the potential of North Carolina as a tourist destination is huge, probably more so than Austin and San Antonio. Europeans don't really know the NC coast and its beaches. The outer banks are a complete unknown in European tourist circles while everybody knows Texas. If Condor can sell Cape Cod to Europeans and BA can sell Charleston to the English then someone ought to be able to sell the OBX.

USAirALB wrote:

You are ignoring the fact that Austin has a thriving tourist sector that Raleigh overall lacks.

Mostly domestic tourism which is kind of irrelevant in the context of this thread. I bet most tourists on those European routes are predominantly outbound and that's really where Austin has an advantage over Raleigh, it's their larger volume of travelers.

The Outer Banks were really pretty when I went, but the issue is they are mostly a "drive destination". They lack the resources to sustain large-scale tourism. There are no large, private resorts (and the small ones present are all kinda dumpy just sitting on the highway...remind me of Myrtle Beach) and very few restaurants, just essentially vacation rentals and seafood restaurants...I am under the impression that most people self-cater whilst there. Anyways, Europeans en masse aren't going to fly 8+ hours and then drive another two to visit the Outer Banks with its current state of development...hence why its marketability factor is so low. Then again, I would bet the majority of people who visit the Outer Banks visit for just those reasons...the rustic-ness and peacefulness of the area.

The same can be said about other NC beaches. I have family that relocated to Carolina Beach. The beaches are nice, but there is just nothing there. Restaurants are all predominantly seafood shacks serving fried fish, no hotels, just vacation homes. The mainland next to the barrier islands is incredibly depressing...it's like driving through an area that hasn't left the 1950s, both in place and mind.

It isn't a matter of BA selling CHS to Brits, but rather Charleston simply has a much more developed tourist industry that essentially markets itself. A huge variety of nice restaurants, large upscale beach resorts (Kiawah and Wild Dunes) and numerous large downtown hotels, historic sites, etc. The Outer Banks have none of that.

Austin had two million international visitors in recent years. I don't have specific data that divides that number into country of origin, but the Texas Hill Country is incredibly popular with both Dutch and Germans tourists for some reason.

Bentheswim11 wrote:

In terms of intercontinental traffic, RDU could also really use flights to South America, Asia and even more Europe frequencies.

The potential is there for incremental gains, sure. But lets not that forget that the only reason RDU has maintained LHR service for all these years is AA's GSK contract. The flight simply would not have existed if not. GSK promised AA would break even plus a few percent in exchange for keeping the service. No brainer on that, if you're AA. But MEX, South America, and Asia, not anytime soon, maybe 10+ years.

USAirALB wrote:

RDU-South America is laughable. The Baltimore-Washington CSA (third largest CSA in the country, third highest CSA by real GDP, wealthiest) barely supports two daily flights to South America. RDU-Asia is even more laughable.

Frankly, Raleigh is extremely well-served for a metro area of its size. There are CSAs that are significantly larger (see CLE, CMH, IND, MCI, SAT, PIT, SMF) that would be thrilled to enjoy the level of international service RDU currently has.

Agree 100%. On MEX, AM can barely maintain service to DFW and IAH these days. And CM has better places to send their planes then RDU, that would be a very long and thin route, even in the best of times.
RDU can hope to maintain CUN and possibly grab NAS and/or MBJ.

USAirALB wrote:

4) You can't compare Raleigh to Austin, unfortunately. Raleigh has virtually no leisure component, as Austin has. Austin also has a much larger corporate sector.

You're right about the corporate sector in AUS. As a longtime Texas resident whose wife hails from Winston-Salem, I'd debate you on the leisure part. Austin doesn't have that much leisure, it's just more then Dallas or Houston, which have .... next to nothing. On the whole, NC has more to offer on the leisure side then Texas does.

AAIL86 wrote:

Agree 100%. On MEX, AM can barely maintain service to DFW and IAH these days.

To attract traffic, MEX, as an AM hub, has only those Mexican airports not having non-stop flights to USA add to that, AM Latin American network out of MEX is quite limited.
IMHO, AM success @ DFW and IAH might depend on P2P traffic patterns, flights available daily mornings and evenings between MEX and DFW/IAH with the right-size aircraft.

And CM has better places to send their planes then RDU, that would be a very long and thin route, even in the best of times.

Yes, it does have other US destinations more attractive revenue-wise to open than RDU, unless a huge multinational company with operations in North Carolina was to secure X amount of seats per flight.
But when compared to all destinations flown by CM which are 7 hours from PTY, PTY-RDU isn't a very long route at all. It's about the same distance from PTY as ATL, MTY and GDL. Bear in mind MTY and GDL were flown on E190 and CM gave up that aircraft type. So, while it's true about a thin route, CM no longer has the aircraft which could possibly increase the odds do well in RDU.

RDU can hope to maintain CUN and possibly grab NAS and/or MBJ.

Add PUJ and perhaps AUA plus LIR to that list (SXM very iffy).

SkyLife wrote:

Only thing I could really see would be someone like Qatar offering a link to the ME, even this is a stretch. I don’t see a legacy like AA, UA or DL throwing $$$ at the pacific for quite awhile. If China/Japan is ever served its a 10-20 year goal IMHO, it just overflies so much demand on the way.

-I think the 321XLR could be a great airplane for markets like RDU if it has the legs. Could it maybe open up FRA/MUC/DUB/AMS? I think RDU could possibly support some of those at least seasonally. CDG started as one of the longest 757 flights in the world and grew to a 767, the 321XLR could possibly offer the same.

If QR decides to serve the Carolinas, it will be hands down in CLT. FRA on either UA/LH is a real possibility for RDU down the road, however.

AAIL86 wrote:

Bentheswim11 wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

RDU-South America is laughable. The Baltimore-Washington CSA (third largest CSA in the country, third highest CSA by real GDP, wealthiest) barely supports two daily flights to South America. RDU-Asia is even more laughable.

Frankly, Raleigh is extremely well-served for a metro area of its size. There are CSAs that are significantly larger (see CLE, CMH, IND, MCI, SAT, PIT, SMF) that would be thrilled to enjoy the level of international service RDU currently has.

Agree 100%. On MEX, AM can barely maintain service to DFW and IAH these days. And CM has better places to send their planes then RDU, that would be a very long and thin route, even in the best of times.
RDU can hope to maintain CUN and possibly grab NAS and/or MBJ.

I would agree on AM at DFW. Its a daily E90. But IAH-MEX is 3x daily 737s. It seems they are doing fine at IAH at least.

Ok guys. The only stuff I think RDU will see for a while is maybe Condor or LH to FRA, and MAYBE PTY. KEF may not even work! We have to wait to be making these crazy assumptions.

The reason the Texas Hill Country is popular with German Tourist is a lot of the area was settled by German immigrants in the 1800s. The German history is still alive and doing well and several German festivals are help throughout the year. There is a lot of cool things to see and do in the area.

USAirALB wrote:

CLT is actually the closest airport to Boone, followed by GSO.

As the crow flies, perhaps. But it's a faster drive from GSO to Boone.

RDUDDJI wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

CLT is actually the closest airport to Boone, followed by GSO.

As the crow flies, perhaps. But it's a faster drive from GSO to Boone.

Driving distance on CLT-Boone is 94 miles, GSO-Boone is 108 miles. As someone who has actually done both drives, CLT-Boone is definitely faster.

Google Maps shows both typically take 1h40m-2h00m. Apple Maps gives a 5 minute advantage to GSO.

Bentheswim11 wrote:

RDU may seem small but for it’s 15 Million passengers it saw pre-covid, it deserved more than 7 international flights. RDU will soon see the addition of KEF to their network and the resumption of CDG, LHR, YUL in mid-2022 but will only bring the airport to 6 international flights. The airport did briefly serve MBJ during Covid but really the only reason it didn’t work is because JetBlue brought it in during the peak of the pandemic with almost no physical presence in the community.

15m passengers, three large hubs within an hours flight and wants nonstops to every continent with an ongoing raging pandemic....

I think we may have stumbled onto Jeb Brooks a.net account

It's shocking to me that there are people who actually think Raleigh will be some sort of tourist magnet anywhere on pare with Austin. Pure boosterism at its finest. Nothing wrong with Raleigh and I quite like the city, but it's not even on the same planet as Austin when it comes to tourism.

Not to mention that Austin is literally a Gen Z / Millennial playground, not only that live/work/play there, but also for those that flock there for weekend getaways from all over the country. The ones that live in other urban centers, or like to travel to urban centers. AUS is literally one of the top bachelor/bachelorette party places in the country.
These are two big dynamics of air travel components that are missing from RDU.

People talking about all the tourism appeal of RDU and the Carolinas are missing the fact that most of these are regional destinations that are "driving" destinations and/or destinations where you need a car, and all within a few hours to a day's drive of every population center on the East Coast.

bridge29 wrote:

It's shocking to me that there are people who actually think Raleigh will be some sort of tourist magnet anywhere on pare with Austin. Pure boosterism at its finest. Nothing wrong with Raleigh and I quite like the city, but it's not even on the same planet as Austin when it comes to tourism.

Agreed. I’d say Nashville is closer to Austin tourism wise. Nashville is growing at an impressive clip and they’ll likely get more international service once a better FIS facility comes online and international travel recovers.

Runway765 wrote:

bridge29 wrote:

It's shocking to me that there are people who actually think Raleigh will be some sort of tourist magnet anywhere on pare with Austin. Pure boosterism at its finest. Nothing wrong with Raleigh and I quite like the city, but it's not even on the same planet as Austin when it comes to tourism.

Agreed. I’d say Nashville is closer to Austin tourism wise. Nashville is growing at an impressive clip and they’ll likely get more international service once a better FIS facility comes online and international travel recovers.

Tourism wise yes, although the Austin tourism aspect is getting hyped up a little too much here.

In terms of corporate travel, RDU is ahead of BNA though.

USAirALB wrote:

RDUDDJI wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

CLT is actually the closest airport to Boone, followed by GSO.

As the crow flies, perhaps. But it's a faster drive from GSO to Boone.

Driving distance on CLT-Boone is 94 miles, GSO-Boone is 108 miles. As someone who has actually done both drives, CLT-Boone is definitely faster.

Google Maps shows both typically take 1h40m-2h00m. Apple Maps gives a 5 minute advantage to GSO.

I guarantee you I have made that drives far more times than you have (Western NC used to be my sales territory). GSO is about 15 min shorter on average. At this very moment Google maps shows it as 11 minutes shorter. Apple Maps are a joke (but still prove the point).

I do like how you doubled down and then proved yourself wrong (on a point that doesn’t even really matter)?

bridge29 wrote:

It's shocking to me that there are people who actually think Raleigh will be some sort of tourist magnet anywhere on pare with Austin. Pure boosterism at its finest. Nothing wrong with Raleigh and I quite like the city, but it's not even on the same planet as Austin when it comes to tourism.

Who thinks that? RDU is not, I repeat, not a tourist Mecca. Do not come here. Go to Austin, have some brisket, listen to some country music, and hang out with all their homeless people. It’s amazing, it’s like PDX & BNA had a kid together.

RDUDDJI wrote:

USAirALB wrote:

RDUDDJI wrote:

As the crow flies, perhaps. But it's a faster drive from GSO to Boone.

Driving distance on CLT-Boone is 94 miles, GSO-Boone is 108 miles. As someone who has actually done both drives, CLT-Boone is definitely faster.

Google Maps shows both typically take 1h40m-2h00m. Apple Maps gives a 5 minute advantage to GSO.

I guarantee you I have made that drives far more times than you have (Western NC used to be my sales territory). GSO is about 15 min shorter on average. At this very moment Google maps shows it as 11 minutes shorter. Apple Maps are a joke (but still prove the point).

I do like how you doubled down and then proved yourself wrong (on a point that doesn’t even really matter)?

I'm not wrong at all. CLT is the closer to Boone than GSO is based on actual driving distance.

I just checked it again and now Apple Maps has both at 1h50m. Is Apple Maps only a joke because the data isn't skewed to your favor?

Midwestindy wrote:

Runway765 wrote:

bridge29 wrote:

It's shocking to me that there are people who actually think Raleigh will be some sort of tourist magnet anywhere on pare with Austin. Pure boosterism at its finest. Nothing wrong with Raleigh and I quite like the city, but it's not even on the same planet as Austin when it comes to tourism.

Agreed. I’d say Nashville is closer to Austin tourism wise. Nashville is growing at an impressive clip and they’ll likely get more international service once a better FIS facility comes online and international travel recovers.

Tourism wise yes, although the Austin tourism aspect is getting hyped up a little too much here.

In terms of corporate travel, RDU is ahead of BNA though.

Curious - is there a notable difference in how business travel has recovered in BNA vs. RDU?
My outside-in perspective is that BNA is probably outpacing the business travel recovery in RDU.
RDU's business travel heavily skews to knowledge-sector, which has been slower to recover whereas BNA seems to have a much more diversified econony that skews more toward manufacturing/auto/infrastructure sectors.

USAirALB wrote:

I'm not wrong at all. CLT is the closer to Boone than GSO is based on actual driving distance.

I just checked it again and now Apple Maps has both at 1h50m. Is Apple Maps only a joke because the data isn't skewed to your favor?

Well there’s also the minor fact that no airline or passenger is thinking “we need to start service/fly to this secondary airport, it cuts some drive times by almost 15 minutes!”

Much like airline/manufacturer fans, there are the airport fans. I don’t blame them, I always wanted to see my local airport do well too. But it’s never taken into consideration that not every airport makes it their mission to get as many airlines and big destinations as possible. Some face limitations, and others just accept their position.

SkyLife wrote:

AAIL86 wrote:

SkyLife wrote:

Only thing I could really see would be someone like Qatar offering a link to the ME, even this is a stretch. I don’t see a legacy like AA, UA or DL throwing $$$ at the pacific for quite awhile. If China/Japan is ever served its a 10-20 year goal IMHO, it just overflies so much demand on the way.

-I think the 321XLR could be a great airplane for markets like RDU if it has the legs. Could it maybe open up FRA/MUC/DUB/AMS? I think RDU could possibly support some of those at least seasonally. CDG started as one of the longest 757 flights in the world and grew to a 767, the 321XLR could possibly offer the same.

If QR decides to serve the Carolinas, it will be hands down in CLT. FRA on either UA/LH is a real possibility for RDU down the road, however.

I could see that. I think RDU will see 2-3 more TATL flights before E Asia is considered. I think it’s just such a long route and TPAC is in the dumps now and will remain especially if China remains locked down for the foreseeable future.

If only RDU could ever serve as a SE hub for UA… one can dream!

I personally don't get the obsession on a.net thinking there should TPAC flights from every single airport in USA...

Even Atlanta only have flights to HND, ICN, and PVG (and DOH if you count that as Asia but it's technically a TATL route), with ICN being the only route that had more than 1x daily frequency (pre-virus)...this is with an actual big Korean population in Atlanta area AND Skyteam connection on the other end.

East Asia traffic are notoriously focused around VFR and a few metro areas i.e. LA, SF, and NYC alongside the like of Seattle, Boston, DC, and Chicago with major growth at places like Metroplex and Houston. The demand otherwise are, well, just can't sustain a flight.

This horse is dead. No need to beat it anymore.

USAirALB wrote:

mgoose2 wrote:

CM to RDU could happen, probably after another TATL link. The area would need to continue growing in wealth (more important than population for these kinds of routes). It is positioned to do just that: mild weather, southern charm, mixed government (a moderate blue governor/red legislature). Being the capitol of NC really helps Raleigh keep some pace with Charlotte, AA hub notwithstanding.

A city being a state capital (capital is the city, capitol is the building where government meets) does actually very little for air service development, sans for maybe flights to WAS if the capital city is in a politically strategic state.

For a hypothetical route like RDU-PTY on CM to be successful, I would say wealth is actually irrelevant. CM would be more concerned about capturing potential VFR traffic, rather than the wealth of the Triangle.

Bentheswim11 wrote:

Runway765 wrote:

Nah. Austin is on a whole different level than Raleigh/Durham. Way faster growing with both business and tourism demand, and combined with nearby San Antonio, it forms a defacto mega-region with over 5 million people.

I wouldn’t necessarily say “way faster” considering Raleigh was the second fastest growing US city behind Austin from. 2010-2020. Both cities seeing growth in both sides (Raleigh was the 25th richest us city in 2018, Austin failed to make the list). In terms of a 90-minute drive radius (similar to that of Austin and San Antonio), Raleigh serves 6.5 Million people. Raleigh/Durham also seeing growth from Apple (3,000 employees), Clorox (1,500 employees), Fujifilm (1,000 employees), Google (2,000 employees), IBM (25,000 employees), etc. And prior to the pandemic, the airports were within 2 million passengers of each other so it makes no sense why Austin would have 4x the number of international destinations as Raleigh/Durham considering Raleigh has a higher expenditure market.

You are ignoring the fact that Austin has a thriving tourist sector that Raleigh overall lacks. Raleigh's tourism sector generated $1.7 Billion in 2020...Austin's tourism spending was more than double that. Even if Raleigh were to continue to grow and eventually outgrow Austin demographically speaking, Austin has a such a well established tourism scene (SXSW, ACL, etc) that I would say does more than corporate growth to market Austin internationally at this point.

Case in point...the Globalization and World Cities Research Network (GaWC) is a think tank that researches globalization. Every few years or so they examine and rank cities around the world based on their importance to the global economy. There are ten rankings; Alpha ++, Alpha +, Alpha, Alpha-, Beta+, Beta, Beta-, Gamma+, Gamma, and Gamma-. Austin is ranked Beta -. Charlotte is ranked Gamma +. Raleigh? It isn't even ranked...but rather classified as a "high sufficiency" city.

When comparing wealth between cities within the US...city propers are pointless considering in most regions, wealth is situated outside the city lines in the suburbs. You need to be looking at metro areas. Raleigh is not a wealthier metro area than Austin. If you look at Per Capita income alone, Austin has a higher Per Capita Income than Raleigh as of 2019.

If you look at Per Capita Personal Income (known as PCPI, provides a more inclusive/real-world look at income versus PCI), Austin is the 35th wealthiest metro area, and Raleigh is 62nd as of 2020. If you adjust PCPI for the purchase-power of the dollar in that particular area, Austin shoots up to 15th highest, while Raleigh is 42nd.

Raleigh/Durham split houses the worlds largest research park… this research park is home to more than 250 companies and it’s clearly an area companies want to be considering Mercedes was looking at relocating its headquarters to Raleigh in the mid 2010s, but rather chose Atlanta due to its high connectivity to Germany.

AAIL86 wrote:

Bentheswim11 wrote:

In terms of intercontinental traffic, RDU could also really use flights to South America, Asia and even more Europe frequencies.

The potential is there for incremental gains, sure. But lets not that forget that the only reason RDU has maintained LHR service for all these years is AA's GSK contract. The flight simply would not have existed if not. GSK promised AA would break even plus a few percent in exchange for keeping the service. No brainer on that, if you're AA. But MEX, South America, and Asia, not anytime soon, maybe 10+ years.

USAirALB wrote:

RDU-South America is laughable. The Baltimore-Washington CSA (third largest CSA in the country, third highest CSA by real GDP, wealthiest) barely supports two daily flights to South America. RDU-Asia is even more laughable.

Frankly, Raleigh is extremely well-served for a metro area of its size. There are CSAs that are significantly larger (see CLE, CMH, IND, MCI, SAT, PIT, SMF) that would be thrilled to enjoy the level of international service RDU currently has.

Agree 100%. On MEX, AM can barely maintain service to DFW and IAH these days. And CM has better places to send their planes then RDU, that would be a very long and thin route, even in the best of times.
RDU can hope to maintain CUN and possibly grab NAS and/or MBJ.

USAirALB wrote:

4) You can't compare Raleigh to Austin, unfortunately. Raleigh has virtually no leisure component, as Austin has. Austin also has a much larger corporate sector.

You're right about the corporate sector in AUS. As a longtime Texas resident whose wife hails from Winston-Salem, I'd debate you on the leisure part. Austin doesn't have that much leisure, it's just more then Dallas or Houston, which have .... next to nothing. On the whole, NC has more to offer on the leisure side then Texas does.

You mention in here how GSK drove the route, they did for a short period of time of only 10 years. The route then started to thrive on its very own as it was upgraded to Heathrow in 2008, upgraded to the 777-200 seasonally (fully upgraded by 2015) and was even scheduled to upgrade to the 777-300 in summer of 2020.

Sure, I guess RDU may not be the most viable to South America but eventually it could be possible.

None of those metros are physically larger than the Raleigh-Durham region. Raleigh & Durham each have their own MSA which combine to 2.2 Million, not including the 600,000 in the Fayetteville MSA plus a large number of origin leisure & business demand, where leisure accounts for 7 million passengers per year, not that different than that at AUS. And you can’t say Austin had a larger corporate sector than Raleigh/Durham actually considering RTP alone is home to more than 250 companies, not including those others with presence in the cities themselves. IBM roughly 25,000 employees in the area, which I’m sure hasn’t even been considered by most people in this feed plus major presence with Verizon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, SAS, Clorox, MetLife, Lenovo, USA Baseball, etc.

Many companies may consider Austin as their home, but actually look at the number of employees they have there. Most of these companies like Oracle and Tesla still have most employees working in California or at other remote sites. Meanwhile, most of these jobs existing and being created In the Raleigh/Durham area are in person positions and actually drive the demand.

And for leisure, there are major developments in the state that will be beneficial for Raleigh’s leisure demand. Many noted long drive times, but, Amtrak has now committed links within North Carolina that would allow a train service from Raleigh to Wilmington, more frequencies of existing routes and a train service from Raleigh to Boone.

When we say "International". Does it include long-haul international flights to Europe and South America or just another Canadian/Mexican destinations.

Cause let's be honest. Flights to Canada/Mexico are basically domestic flights.

SkyLife wrote:

-I don’t view NC as a huge tourist destination for Europe and while I would love to say otherwise I just don’t see it. I’m still shocked BA launched CHS honestly. The OBX as mentioned is still a decent hike from RDU and honestly is easier served via ORF for the Kitty Hawk/Nags Head area. It lacks many resorts of significant size and this is part of the appeal of the OBX.

I agree, NC isn't a huge tourist destination for Europe. As a Brit I've holidayed in Wilmington, Southport and Raleigh a few times and been up to the Outer Banks once, as part of wider trips on the East Coast taking in other places. I loved it as it had an 'authentic America' feel and I like getting off the beaten track, but almost all Europeans are likely to think there's nothing there and just go elsewhere (FL perhaps?)

The Outer Banks isn't geared up for European tourism and would take some serious infrastructure investment for it to be, as its largely privately owned self catering vacation rentals, small B&B's/motels and roadside restaurants. Although we're all avgeeks and know of Kitty Hawk, the reality is, the average person just doesn't know of it. It's not really enough of a draw for the average European to traipse 4 hours from Raleigh, Wilmington or DC. The market here is American drive down, and always will be.

Bentheswim11 wrote:

AAIL86 wrote:

Bentheswim11 wrote:

In terms of intercontinental traffic, RDU could also really use flights to South America, Asia and even more Europe frequencies.

The potential is there for incremental gains, sure. But lets not that forget that the only reason RDU has maintained LHR service for all these years is AA's GSK contract. The flight simply would not have existed if not. GSK promised AA would break even plus a few percent in exchange for keeping the service. No brainer on that, if you're AA. But MEX, South America, and Asia, not anytime soon, maybe 10+ years.

USAirALB wrote:

RDU-South America is laughable. The Baltimore-Washington CSA (third largest CSA in the country, third highest CSA by real GDP, wealthiest) barely supports two daily flights to South America. RDU-Asia is even more laughable.

Frankly, Raleigh is extremely well-served for a metro area of its size. There are CSAs that are significantly larger (see CLE, CMH, IND, MCI, SAT, PIT, SMF) that would be thrilled to enjoy the level of international service RDU currently has.

Agree 100%. On MEX, AM can barely maintain service to DFW and IAH these days. And CM has better places to send their planes then RDU, that would be a very long and thin route, even in the best of times.
RDU can hope to maintain CUN and possibly grab NAS and/or MBJ.

USAirALB wrote:

None of those metros are physically larger than the Raleigh-Durham region. Raleigh & Durham each have their own MSA which combine to 2.2 Million, not including the 600,000 in the Fayetteville MSA plus a large number of origin leisure & business demand, where leisure accounts for 7 million passengers per year, not that different than that at AUS. And you can’t say Austin had a larger corporate sector than Raleigh/Durham actually considering RTP alone is home to more than 250 companies, not including those others with presence in the cities themselves. IBM roughly 25,000 employees in the area, which I’m sure hasn’t even been considered by most people in this feed plus major presence with Verizon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, SAS, Clorox, MetLife, Lenovo, USA Baseball, etc.

And for leisure, there are major developments in the state that will be beneficial for Raleigh’s leisure demand. Many noted long drive times, but, Amtrak has now committed links within North Carolina that would allow a train service from Raleigh to Wilmington, more frequencies of existing routes and a train service from Raleigh to Boone.

OK, but when you're talking about leisure traffic, where is it going? Leisure traffic does not equate to international traffic and I'd be willing to bet that a large chunk of leisure traffic ex-RDU doesn't leave the country, which is probably true everywhere. The fact that RDU is quite generously served internationally for a market of its size have already been covered in detail here, not really sure if you're looking for anything but someone else to jump in and cheerlead for RDU at this point.

ewt340 wrote:

When we say "International". Does it include long-haul international flights to Europe and South America or just another Canadian/Mexican destinations.

Cause let's be honest. Flights to Canada/Mexico are basically domestic flights.

Any flights not within the US territories. This includes Canada, Mexico, Europe, Asia, South America, etc.

gunsontheroof wrote:

Bentheswim11 wrote:

AAIL86 wrote:

The potential is there for incremental gains, sure. But lets not that forget that the only reason RDU has maintained LHR service for all these years is AA's GSK contract. The flight simply would not have existed if not. GSK promised AA would break even plus a few percent in exchange for keeping the service. No brainer on that, if you're AA. But MEX, South America, and Asia, not anytime soon, maybe 10+ years.



Agree 100%. On MEX, AM can barely maintain service to DFW and IAH these days. And CM has better places to send their planes then RDU, that would be a very long and thin route, even in the best of times.
RDU can hope to maintain CUN and possibly grab NAS and/or MBJ.

OK, but when you're talking about leisure traffic, where is it going? Leisure traffic does not equate to international traffic and I'd be willing to bet that a large chunk of leisure traffic ex-RDU doesn't leave the country, which is probably true everywhere. The fact that RDU is quite generously served internationally for a market of its size have already been covered in detail here, not really sure if you're looking for anything but someone else to jump in and cheerlead for RDU at this point.

A large amount is domestic but a large amount also being international. Pre-Covid, 50% of the airport’s international travel was leisure. And I wouldn’t say it’s generously served when similar sized airports in BNA, AUS, PDX each seeing 2-3x more international services. PDX even has 4 TATL flights and 2 TPAC

Bentheswim11 wrote:

And for leisure, there are major developments in the state that will be beneficial for Raleigh’s leisure demand. Many noted long drive times, but, Amtrak has now committed links within North Carolina that would allow a train service from Raleigh to Wilmington, more frequencies of existing routes and a train service from Raleigh to Boone.

There are no plans for Amtrak service from Raleigh to Boone. There is no existing rail infrastructure to Boone that could support service (unless you're thinking of Tweetsie Railroad, the children's theme park). I think you must mean Raleigh to Asheville.

Bentheswim11 wrote:

IBM roughly 25,000 employees in the area, which I’m sure hasn’t even been considered by most people in this feed plus major presence with Verizon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, SAS, Clorox, MetLife, Lenovo, USA Baseball, etc.

Many companies may consider Austin as their home, but actually look at the number of employees they have there. Most of these companies like Oracle and Tesla still have most employees working in California or at other remote sites. Meanwhile, most of these jobs existing and being created In the Raleigh/Durham area are in person positions and actually drive the demand.

People aren't considering it because that number is wildly overstated: https://businessnc.com/comparing-apples ... mid-1960s/. Most estimates have IBM down to 8,000 in RTP, about 60% of its former peak. It's a shrinking company. I know--I used to work for them. And Austin has more Google and Apple employees than Raleigh/Durham/RTP. Google already has a tower downtown, and they're building another 35-story building downtown with the intent to occupy the entire building. Apple has a much larger and expanding campus in North Austin--larger than what they're doing in RTP.

BeowulfShaeffer wrote:

Bentheswim11 wrote:

IBM roughly 25,000 employees in the area, which I’m sure hasn’t even been considered by most people in this feed plus major presence with Verizon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, SAS, Clorox, MetLife, Lenovo, USA Baseball, etc.

Many companies may consider Austin as their home, but actually look at the number of employees they have there. Most of these companies like Oracle and Tesla still have most employees working in California or at other remote sites. Meanwhile, most of these jobs existing and being created In the Raleigh/Durham area are in person positions and actually drive the demand.

People aren't considering it because that number is wildly overstated: https://businessnc.com/comparing-apples ... mid-1960s/. Most estimates have IBM down to 8,000 in RTP, about 60% of its former peak. It's a shrinking company. I know--I used to work for them. And Austin has more Google and Apple employees than Raleigh/Durham/RTP. Google already has a tower downtown, and they're building another 35-story building downtown with the intent to occupy the entire building. Apple has a much larger and expanding campus in North Austin--larger than what they're doing in RTP.

And even then even AUS doesn't exactly have THAT much international service. Flights to Europe, sure, but otherwise it's maybe a few more flights to Mexico (Geography helps...).

And no...tourism into Austin from international visitor is also way overstated, period. I would bet most Austin visitors are from rest of Texas...(Texas, after all, IS big...)

SkyLife wrote:

I think I pretty clearly stated the chance was remote and very far off, if ever. Covid also delayed any TPAC new routes for quite some time would be my guess. As I originally stated as well, it just overflies so much demand on the way. If RDU gets more Intl (non Carribean) it will be SA / Europe long before Asia. I still think RDU is quite well served and should be proud of it.

I'm somewhat surprise by the lack of flights to places like PUJ myself...

I'm not disagreeing with you on TPAC actually - I was referring to posts (not by you) like "There are xxx amount more Chinese or Indian now!" as if those mean anything. Somebody even mention Indians are willing to drive 5 hrs to IAD just to save a few bucks!

zakuivcustom wrote:

BeowulfShaeffer wrote:

Bentheswim11 wrote:

IBM roughly 25,000 employees in the area, which I’m sure hasn’t even been considered by most people in this feed plus major presence with Verizon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, SAS, Clorox, MetLife, Lenovo, USA Baseball, etc.

Many companies may consider Austin as their home, but actually look at the number of employees they have there. Most of these companies like Oracle and Tesla still have most employees working in California or at other remote sites. Meanwhile, most of these jobs existing and being created In the Raleigh/Durham area are in person positions and actually drive the demand.

People aren't considering it because that number is wildly overstated: https://businessnc.com/comparing-apples ... mid-1960s/. Most estimates have IBM down to 8,000 in RTP, about 60% of its former peak. It's a shrinking company. I know--I used to work for them. And Austin has more Google and Apple employees than Raleigh/Durham/RTP. Google already has a tower downtown, and they're building another 35-story building downtown with the intent to occupy the entire building. Apple has a much larger and expanding campus in North Austin--larger than what they're doing in RTP.

And even then even AUS doesn't exactly have THAT much international service. Flights to Europe, sure, but otherwise it's maybe a few more flights to Mexico (Geography helps...).

And no...tourism into Austin from international visitor is also way overstated, period. I would bet most Austin visitors are from rest of Texas...(Texas, after all, IS big...)

SkyLife wrote:

I think I pretty clearly stated the chance was remote and very far off, if ever. Covid also delayed any TPAC new routes for quite some time would be my guess. As I originally stated as well, it just overflies so much demand on the way. If RDU gets more Intl (non Carribean) it will be SA / Europe long before Asia. I still think RDU is quite well served and should be proud of it.

I'm somewhat surprise by the lack of flights to places like PUJ myself...

I'm not disagreeing with you on TPAC actually - I was referring to posts (not by you) like "There are xxx amount more Chinese or Indian now!" as if those mean anything. Somebody even mention Indians are willing to drive 5 hrs to IAD just to save a few bucks!

Most of any city's visitors are going to come from the region around it. As for out of state visitors, I can assure you Austin gets more visitors from the West Coast than Raleigh does. Raleigh probably gets more visitors from the South and parts of the East Coast.

As for South America, there is almost no demand from RDU. The demand to Latin America is a lot higher from Charlotte and even with the AA hub they dont fly there.

LAXdude1023 wrote:

As for South America, there is almost no demand from RDU. The demand to Latin America is a lot higher from Charlotte and even with the AA hub they dont fly there.

Latin America demand (south of Mexico) is just...well, concentrated in a few cities. Basically NYC, Miami, along with IAH/DFW for hub traffic. Even the like of DEN or PHX doesn't have LatAm flights...

zakuivcustom wrote:

LAXdude1023 wrote:

As for South America, there is almost no demand from RDU. The demand to Latin America is a lot higher from Charlotte and even with the AA hub they dont fly there.

Latin America demand (south of Mexico) is just...well, concentrated in a few cities. Basically NYC, Miami, along with IAH/DFW for hub traffic. Even the like of DEN or PHX doesn't have LatAm flights...

That depends on where.

MIA, MCO, and NYC have high demand to every corner of Latin America.

LAX has very high demand to Mexico and Central America, high demand to South America, but minimal demand to the Caribbean.

IAH has very high demand to Mexico and Central America, high demand to Colombia, Brazil, and Argentina, solid demand to Cuba but lower demand to other Latin nations.

DFW, SFO, and ORD have massive demand to Mexico but it peters off to other parts of Latin America.

WAS has massive demand to Central America and portions of South America.

BOS has lots of demand to the Caribbean and Brazil.

Places like ATL and CLT mostly depend on hub traffic to fill flights to Latin America but both still have a lot more than RDU does.

ewt340 wrote:

When we say "International". Does it include long-haul international flights to Europe and South America or just another Canadian/Mexican destinations.

Cause let's be honest. Flights to Canada/Mexico are basically domestic flights.

And being equally honest, you are talking nonsense. At which point, or which countries do you consider not being in your imaginary United States? Cross an international border and it's an international flight. It really simple.

OzarkD9S wrote:

This horse is dead. No need to beat it anymore.

RDU, while no doubt a fast a growing region with a lot of potential, is being way overhyped here.

AVLAirlineFreq wrote:

Bentheswim11 wrote:

And for leisure, there are major developments in the state that will be beneficial for Raleigh’s leisure demand. Many noted long drive times, but, Amtrak has now committed links within North Carolina that would allow a train service from Raleigh to Wilmington, more frequencies of existing routes and a train service from Raleigh to Boone.

There are no plans for Amtrak service from Raleigh to Boone. There is no existing rail infrastructure to Boone that could support service (unless you're thinking of Tweetsie Railroad, the children's theme park). I think you must mean Raleigh to Asheville.

Yes, I’m thinking of Asheville, the Boone talk had me mixing some things up.

BeowulfShaeffer wrote:

Bentheswim11 wrote:

IBM roughly 25,000 employees in the area, which I’m sure hasn’t even been considered by most people in this feed plus major presence with Verizon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, SAS, Clorox, MetLife, Lenovo, USA Baseball, etc.

Many companies may consider Austin as their home, but actually look at the number of employees they have there. Most of these companies like Oracle and Tesla still have most employees working in California or at other remote sites. Meanwhile, most of these jobs existing and being created In the Raleigh/Durham area are in person positions and actually drive the demand.

People aren't considering it because that number is wildly overstated: https://businessnc.com/comparing-apples ... mid-1960s/. Most estimates have IBM down to 8,000 in RTP, about 60% of its former peak. It's a shrinking company. I know--I used to work for them. And Austin has more Google and Apple employees than Raleigh/Durham/RTP. Google already has a tower downtown, and they're building another 35-story building downtown with the intent to occupy the entire building. Apple has a much larger and expanding campus in North Austin--larger than what they're doing in RTP.

IBM itself may only have some 8,000 employees but they also own 100% stake in the Raleigh-based Red Hat which has 15,000 employees

Interesting topic. Since AUS keeps getting brought up in the thread, here are the international n/s destinations currently offered or scheduled to be offered out of AUS:

Aeromexico Connect--MEX
Air Canada Express--YYZ
American Airlines--CUN, LIR, NAS, PVR, PUJ, SJD
British Airways--LHR
JetBlue--CUN
KLM--AMS
Lufthansa--FRA
Southwest Airlines--CUN, PVR, SJD
Spirit Airlines--CUN
Sun Country--CUN
Virgin Atlantic--LHR
VivaAerobus--MTY, MEX
WestJet--YYC

Bentheswim11 wrote:

BeowulfShaeffer wrote:

Bentheswim11 wrote:

IBM roughly 25,000 employees in the area, which I’m sure hasn’t even been considered by most people in this feed plus major presence with Verizon, Apple, Google, Microsoft, SAS, Clorox, MetLife, Lenovo, USA Baseball, etc.

Many companies may consider Austin as their home, but actually look at the number of employees they have there. Most of these companies like Oracle and Tesla still have most employees working in California or at other remote sites. Meanwhile, most of these jobs existing and being created In the Raleigh/Durham area are in person positions and actually drive the demand.

People aren't considering it because that number is wildly overstated: https://businessnc.com/comparing-apples ... mid-1960s/. Most estimates have IBM down to 8,000 in RTP, about 60% of its former peak. It's a shrinking company. I know--I used to work for them. And Austin has more Google and Apple employees than Raleigh/Durham/RTP. Google already has a tower downtown, and they're building another 35-story building downtown with the intent to occupy the entire building. Apple has a much larger and expanding campus in North Austin--larger than what they're doing in RTP.

IBM itself may only have some 8,000 employees but they also own 100% stake in the Raleigh-based Red Hat which has 15,000 employees

Don't forget they sold the laptop business to Lenovo (~3000) employees which has it's US HQ in Morrisville right under the flight path of 5L.


Triangle employers of 2000 or more.
https://raleigh-wake.org/business-advan ... -employers

Some of the ones outside the area are missing from this list. But either way, RDU offers a lot of university travel, and business travel.
I expect more international offerings from the other side of the pond as the pandemic ebbs away. and the A321neo makes life a bit more competitive for the Long Haul carriers.

Iceland air is just the start

RDUDDJI wrote:

Go to Austin, have some brisket, listen to some country music, and hang out with all their homeless people. It’s amazing, it’s like PDX & BNA had a kid together.

As someone who has lived in Austin and currently lives in Portland, this cracked me up. Very accurate assessment...

Runway765 wrote:

OzarkD9S wrote:

This horse is dead. No need to beat it anymore.

RDU, while no doubt a fast a growing region with a lot of potential, is being way overhyped here.

I'm surprised I've actually read this entire thread. It reeks of fanboyism, but this IS a.net.

This thread is hilarious. I was reading it at a bar last night after a long day at work and cracking up at the whole RDU vs. AUS thing. As someone who briefly lived in AUS and has been to RDU a few times, they actually are IMHO quite similar (I'd even thrown SAN on the list too). Both have big regional tech scenes which started in the 1980s, have excellent educational and healthcare facilities and are a bit more affordable compared to other metro areas.

In terms of Int'l service, I agree 100% with the fact that both cities are wedged between larger metros and there isn't a current need to really launch additional services at the moment (with COVID it might as well be a pipe dream in fact.) Unless corporate contracts come into play (EG: AA's tenure on RDU-London over the years) then I really wouldn't expect much at the moment.

Anyone remember the liquidation of Midway? AA did came back to RDU in the early/mid 2000s with a very similar regional operation to what DL has now of mostly ERJs to backfill what Midway left behind. Someone around 2007 they even launched mainline on S80s (I think) from RDU to LGA and AUS. They never called it back as any kind of Focus City, but it essentially was in terms of numbers of flights (s*** even RDU-EWR was operated). Once the recession hit, AA pulled all of this back as well as its SJU and STL hubs.

Someone mentioned how AUS is close to SAT (it is) but anyone also realize it's only like 2 hours from Houston as well? I did that drive once and it wasn't bad. Talk about being close to one of the largest metros in the country and not having Int'l service? Wonder why haha.

Also both cities really do have their flaws as well. AUS is a cowtown once you get outside of the city, downtown has a ton of homeless people and overall the metro has terrible road quality & highway infrastructure. During COVID, that was the main reason why I left as downtown felt like a creepy ghost town with it shut down. Can't go wrong with Rainey Street and I did stay at the Fairmont once which was impressive.

RDU I've never been impressed by all that much at all. It's downtown shuts down and it's still around a 2 hour drive to the Outer Banks. Probably one of my favorite beach areas in the US but to be honest, unlike AUS, people really didn't seem all that welcoming or friendly.

ATL on the other hand? I was just there and I would take place in a heartbeat over RDU. That place gets a reputation for that "Bless Your Heart" fake mentality, but every time I've been there it's been the complete opposite.