SEATTLE (Reuters) - Boeing Co is in advanced talks with Qatar Airways to secure a launch order for a proposed new freighter, and a deal could come as early as next week when the country's ruling emir visits Washington, two people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
Qatar Airways is looking at renewing its existing fleet of around 34 freighters with the larger new 777X version in a deal potentially worth $14 billion at list prices, the people said. Qatar has indicated it is willing to look at buying as many as 50 freighters, with the larger number likely to include options.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-01-25/


Jon Ostrower suggest that QR could possibly take the ntu MAX 8s that were suppose to go Air Italy.
https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 9672736769

ikolkyo wrote:

SEATTLE (Reuters) - Boeing Co is in advanced talks with Qatar Airways to secure a launch order for a proposed new freighter, and a deal could come as early as next week when the country's ruling emir visits Washington, two people familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.
Qatar Airways is looking at renewing its existing fleet of around 34 freighters with the larger new 777X version in a deal potentially worth $14 billion at list prices, the people said. Qatar has indicated it is willing to look at buying as many as 50 freighters, with the larger number likely to include options.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 022-01-25/


Jon Ostrower suggest that QR could possibly take the ntu MAX 8s that were suppose to go Air Italy.
https://twitter.com/jonostrower/status/ ... 9672736769

Lol, Boeing said you want to stick to Airbus and place a big 777XF order? Great! You’re also going to take those 737 MAXes you didn’t take previously.

Eyes wide open Boeing. Make sure all performance guarantees and delivery dates are 100% doable, using Boeing's contract template. Care allowing current passenger and future F orders to be interchangeable, otherwise maybe almost a net zero change to the current X order book.

Hopefully priced well, as nowhere else for QR to shop.

smartplane wrote:

Eyes wide open Boeing. Make sure all performance guarantees and delivery dates are 100% doable. And care with allowing current passenger and future F orders to be interchangeable, otherwise may be almost a net zero change to the current X order book.

Well, I wouldn’t assume it will be conversions, particularly in light of the A350 issues. I can certainly see QR not converting as a hedge that it’s A350-1000s on order get cancelled (by one party or another).

Excellent news for Boeing and the 777X family.

jbs2886 wrote:

smartplane wrote:

Eyes wide open Boeing. Make sure all performance guarantees and delivery dates are 100% doable. And care with allowing current passenger and future F orders to be interchangeable, otherwise may be almost a net zero change to the current X order book.

Well, I wouldn’t assume it will be conversions, particularly in light of the A350 issues. I can certainly see QR not converting as a hedge that it’s A350-1000s on order get cancelled (by one party or another).

I'm sure you are right. QR won't want to give up on it's launch pricing and compensation credits. Wonder if the F order will mirror? But Boeing must ensure there are no inexpensive escape clauses, and / or more avenues for additional compensation.

If this order goes unconditional, QR has locked Boeing into the X family for a couple of decades. What will that mean for 787 development? More focus on the 8 and 9?

smartplane wrote:

Eyes wide open Boeing. Make sure all performance guarantees and delivery dates are 100% doable, using Boeing's contract template. Care allowing current passenger and future F orders to be interchangeable, otherwise maybe almost a net zero change to the current X order book.

Hopefully priced well, as nowhere else for QR to shop.

Boeing knows it first hand, in fact much earlier than Airbus. Airbus didn't read the leaves on the customer when said customer has already made a lot of noise on the 787 even before the 350 entered service.

jeffrey0032j wrote:

smartplane wrote:

Eyes wide open Boeing. Make sure all performance guarantees and delivery dates are 100% doable, using Boeing's contract template. Care allowing current passenger and future F orders to be interchangeable, otherwise maybe almost a net zero change to the current X order book.

Hopefully priced well, as nowhere else for QR to shop.

Boeing knows it first hand, in fact much earlier than Airbus. Airbus didn't read the leaves on the customer when said customer has already made a lot of noise on the 787 even before the 350 entered service.

Actually Airbus knew it as well when Qatar Airways made noise about the A340-600 performance and then the A320neo, they converted the whole A320neo order to recent cancelled A321neos. Some of the A320neos have already been built and they did not take delivery of any.

jbs2886 wrote:

smartplane wrote:

Eyes wide open Boeing. Make sure all performance guarantees and delivery dates are 100% doable. And care with allowing current passenger and future F orders to be interchangeable, otherwise may be almost a net zero change to the current X order book.

Well, I wouldn’t assume it will be conversions, particularly in light of the A350 issues. I can certainly see QR not converting as a hedge that it’s A350-1000s on order get cancelled (by one party or another).

I would actually assume just the opposite. Not full conversion, but at least some of the pax orders will be converted (possibly all of the -8’s). It’s just the reality of the current market. Look no further than the A350F. The only ‘new’ order was CMA. ALC, Singapore and Air France are all conversions of existing pax orders. So overall +4 net.

And honestly, I’m not sure Boeing would be all that upset if all current -8X orders get converted to -XF and the -8 is quietly shelved. The market for the -F is undeniably larger, and most likely more profitable, than the niche ULH market. If it indeed turns out the -XF is a separate size, all the better to put the -8 on the shelf.

Hamlet69

Potential top up of 777X passenger variants too?

Hamlet69 wrote:

I would actually assume just the opposite. Not full conversion, but at least some of the pax orders will be converted (possibly all of the -8’s). It’s just the reality of the current market. Look no further than the A350F. The only ‘new’ order was CMA. ALC, Singapore and Air France are all conversions of existing pax orders. So overall +4 net.

Hamlet69

That’s not accurate. I’m fairly confident AF is not a conversion (it hasn’t been booked yet), SQ converted some, but not all, and same with ALC.

smartplane wrote:

Hopefully priced well, as nowhere else for QR to shop.

There are alternatives. QR's 777F and 748F fleet is young, if Boeing's 777XF pricing is not good for QR then it makes it more economic to continue operating the current fleet and use their existing 77W fleet as feedstock for growth until the next downcycle. Boeing is also motivated to launch the 777XF not to allow the A350F to gain more fraction.

Pelly wrote:

smartplane wrote:

Hopefully priced well, as nowhere else for QR to shop.

There are alternatives. QR's 777F and 748F fleet is young, if Boeing's 777XF pricing is not good for QR then it makes it more economic to continue operating the current fleet and use their existing 77W fleet as feedstock for growth until the next downcycle. Boeing is also motivated to launch the 777XF not to allow the A350F to gain more fraction.

Right. QR were probably able to exact a ton of leverage over BCA, as they need a solid, blue chip launch customer far more than QR need new freighters. Still in all, this is basically good news. The 77XF will be a solid performer, and if BCA need to take yet another loss to push that out, so be it. They will be glad they did in the end.

QR are no fun to deal with, but in reality are little worse —if at all— than a lot of both OEM's clientele.

ElroyJetson wrote:

Excellent news for Boeing and the 777X family.

IMHO Qatar ordering the 777XF is just as obvious as Southwest is ordering the 737MAX.
With the escalating dispute between Qatar and Airbus, it’s the perfect time to show the world Qatar and Boeing are BFF.

jbs2886 wrote:

Hamlet69 wrote:

I would actually assume just the opposite. Not full conversion, but at least some of the pax orders will be converted (possibly all of the -8’s). It’s just the reality of the current market. Look no further than the A350F. The only ‘new’ order was CMA. ALC, Singapore and Air France are all conversions of existing pax orders. So overall +4 net.

Hamlet69

That’s not accurate. I’m fairly confident AF is not a conversion (it hasn’t been booked yet), SQ converted some, but not all, and same with ALC.

I offer my most humblest apologies. I did what I try never to do - post while tired and without double checking my facts.

ALC cancelled x4 A350's (x2 -900 and x2 -1000) for x7 Freighters. Net +3.

Singapore I mis-remembered very incorrectly. 7 Freighters for x2 A350 and x15 A320neo. Value balances, but overall, A350 +5 net.

Air France is a mystery. I had remembered reading this: "This order would come with full substitution rights to Airbus A350 passenger aircraft." And believed this was confirmation that it was a conversion. But you are right, we will see what happens when the order is confirmed.

https://www.airfranceklm.com/en/air-fra ... rcraft-klm

Again, my apologies. My one saving grace I can point to is my overall point still stands - in today's environment, it makes complete sense to convert whatever passenger aircraft one no longer feels there is a market for to freighters.

Humble regards,

Hamlet69

Of course we saw this coming. This will be a very big boost for the X program of course. Let’s see what FedEx does, that’s another carrier in discussions on new freighters

Very good news for Boeing, glad they gain traction on the XF, it is very much needed as the X is "stuck in the mud" at the moment.

The most interesting things will be in the details:
1. Will the -8 go the way of the 787-3 and be quietly shelved due to conversions
2. When will first delivery be?
3. Is the order a quiet deferal on the existing order?
4. Is this an acceptance that the A321 is dead and Airbus had the right to cancel it?
5. Will there be a top up order of MAX soon?

QR was a possible launch customer for the A350F. When the dispute with Airbus became public, QR's CEO said it may have industrial consequences for Airbus.

Had QR launched the 77XF with Boeing earlier, that may have created momentum sufficient to swamp all prospects for the 350F. That is the reason in my view for Airbus launching its 77XF competitor "prematurely" - with many fewer launch orders than the 50 suggested beforehand.

As a result, Boeing will no longer have this market to itself, but, given current dominance, will probably emerge as the major player

JerseyFlyer wrote:

QR was a possible launch customer for the A350F. When the dispute with Airbus became public, QR's CEO said it may have industrial consequences for Airbus.

Had QR launched the 77XF with Boeing earlier, that may have created momentum sufficient to swamp all prospects for the 350F. That is the reason in my view for Airbus launching its 77XF competitor "prematurely" - with many fewer launch orders than the 50 suggested beforehand.

As a result, Boeing will no longer have this market to itself, but, given current dominance, will probably emerge as the major player

If you show me where QR ever said they are going to be launch customers for the 350F I will back down.

It had always been a competition between the two.

IN FACT:

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... -777x-a350

This was early last year. It has always been both

I think the point is that QR could well have launched the 350F but now I'll not. They were a possible launch customer, as I posted.

JerseyFlyer wrote:

I think the point is that QR could well have launched the 350F but now I'll not. They were a possible launch customer, as I posted.

Of course they could. But “could” Is different from QR was going to be the launch customer

QR and launch customer....... this will be entertaining!

Congrats to Boeing if true, they needed this win. (Even if it is QR)

This was wholly expected in light of the irretrievably broken relationship with Airbus. Could very much be seen as tit for tat for Airbus cancelling the Qatar A321 order. Personally, I never believed AAB had any intention of ordering the A350F anyway. Rather, it was just a bargaining tool in his ongoing spat with Airbus. What will be fascinating to watch going forward is what the AAB/Qatar relationship will be with Boeing. Now that AAB has burnt his boats with Airbus, Boeing will be his exclusive supplier. That hugely weakens AAB's position. I suspect we won't hear much from AAB from now on, as he won't be able to risk alienating the remaining supplier. All will be sweetness and light, now he can't use his play book of setting one against the other, swapping orders between them, criticising one and rewarding the other, etc.

It will be somewhat brave of QR to order the 777XF now, since Boeing doesn’t know what the final configuration of that aircraft will be.

The launch of the A350F effectively killed the original 777XF concept, which was based on the -8. The -8, being 20 tons heavier but offering the same payload, is clearly not competitive. This has forced Boeing to re-think the 777XF, and it stands to reason they’re gravitating towards basing the Freighter on the -9. Such a model will be at least 30 tons heavier than the A350F, but might offer a higher payload which could justify the higher weight.

Fact of the matter is, however, that the best mousetrap currently is the A350F, and that the 777XF requires serious development to offer a viable alternative. And as far as we know, that development might not exist outside a basic idea and concept.

B777LRF wrote:

It will be somewhat brave of QR to order the 777XF now, since Boeing doesn’t know what the final configuration of that aircraft will be.

The launch of the A350F effectively killed the original 777XF concept, which was based on the -8. The -8, being 20 tons heavier but offering the same payload, is clearly not competitive. This has forced Boeing to re-think the 777XF, and it stands to reason they’re gravitating towards basing the Freighter on the -9. Such a model will be at least 30 tons heavier than the A350F, but might offer a higher payload which could justify the higher weight.

Fact of the matter is, however, that the best mousetrap currently is the A350F, and that the 777XF requires serious development to offer a viable alternative. And as far as we know, that development might not exist outside a basic idea and concept.

Boeing said when it launches there will be a final configuration. So if it launches next week, there is a final config.

All you have said concerning the 777XF is speculation. Why can’t you want both manufacturers to have good and competitive freighters?

What's the business case for CAPEX on replacing a fleet of 26 new build B777Fs today? The oldest is only 12 years old and the youngest under a year old. The need for maindeck freighters today is to some extent a bubble given how much of the wide body passenger fleet is stored due to COVID. Even Emirates was allowing the leases on their B777Fs to lapse with 3/13 already gone.
Mind you, money's no object here I guess?

One advantage for Boeing: QR gets some Launch Customer Price, but not quite as good as they could have got with the A350F realistic. Good for Boeing: The 'reasonable' Launch Customer Price sets the benchmark also for other Customer.
So it may benefit both: Boeing getting a reasonable enough price without extreme discounts and Airbus not to deal anymore with QR, but also benefits from the higher initial price settings for larger freighters which also allows Airbus to less discount the A350F. This should be in the interest of both.

marcelh wrote:

ElroyJetson wrote:

Excellent news for Boeing and the 777X family.

IMHO Qatar ordering the 777XF is just as obvious as Southwest is ordering the 737MAX.
With the escalating dispute between Qatar and Airbus, it’s the perfect time to show the world Qatar and Boeing are BFF.

B will be the only friend of QR. or maybe they can just call Embraer to get diversified friendship.

B777LRF wrote:

It will be somewhat brave of QR to order the 777XF now, since Boeing doesn’t know what the final configuration of that aircraft will be.

The launch of the A350F effectively killed the original 777XF concept, which was based on the -8. The -8, being 20 tons heavier but offering the same payload, is clearly not competitive. This has forced Boeing to re-think the 777XF, and it stands to reason they’re gravitating towards basing the Freighter on the -9. Such a model will be at least 30 tons heavier than the A350F, but might offer a higher payload which could justify the higher weight.

Fact of the matter is, however, that the best mousetrap currently is the A350F, and that the 777XF requires serious development to offer a viable alternative. And as far as we know, that development might not exist outside a basic idea and concept.

Maybe QR knows what they want/need and Boeing is willing to offer them a freighter which suits those needs?

With the Emir visiting the US I would have thought the agenda to revolve around Afghanistan, potential incursion in Ukrainian and secure gas supply for Europe, and Iran.

That alone could fill a month of meetings.

Thought QR was more of an airshow event ordering organisation.

zeke wrote:

With the Emir visiting the US I would have thought the agenda to revolve around Afghanistan, potential incursion in Ukrainian and secure gas supply for Europe, and Iran.

That alone could fill a month of meetings.

Thought QR was more of an airshow event ordering organisation.

Their last order with Boeing was structured during an emir visit too. The 787-9 and 777Fs

Opus99 wrote:

JerseyFlyer wrote:

QR was a possible launch customer for the A350F. When the dispute with Airbus became public, QR's CEO said it may have industrial consequences for Airbus.

Had QR launched the 77XF with Boeing earlier, that may have created momentum sufficient to swamp all prospects for the 350F. That is the reason in my view for Airbus launching its 77XF competitor "prematurely" - with many fewer launch orders than the 50 suggested beforehand.

As a result, Boeing will no longer have this market to itself, but, given current dominance, will probably emerge as the major player

If you show me where QR ever said they are going to be launch customers for the 350F I will back down.

It had always been a competition between the two.

IN FACT:

https://aviationweek.com/air-transport/ ... -777x-a350

This was early last year. It has always been both

Pretty sure the A350F was tailor-made for QR but the fall-out between Airbus and Qatar Airways suspended the commerical talks very close to the sale at the begining of last year. Since then we heard that Airbus is looking for customer to launch an A350F and QR made noise about a large freighter competition.
Since the Dubaï Air Show where the A350F configuration was disclosed, we saw that the 777-XF was not ready then but QR mind was made for other reason ...
And now, with Airbus retaliation following QR's legal action, it is obvious A350F at QR is not happening and QR has no other choice than to go with 777-XF if they want to replace 777-F and grow so they want to close the deal as fast as possible not to look hurt by Airbus move.

In fact : Airbus don't want to do business with QR anymore.

On the 777-XF, I would wait to see if the order is mostly a brand new one or massive conversions for Qatar Airways and I would also wait to see if other customers follow when the plane spec will be out.

For now, most of the freighter market knows what the A350F can do, but they are waiting to "meet" the 777-XF to choose.

Opus99 wrote:

All you have said concerning the 777XF is speculation. Why can’t you want both manufacturers to have good and competitive freighters?

The fact the XF will have a much higher OEW than the A350F is not a matter of speculation, those are cold hard fact. Just as it’s a fact the XF will have a MTOW which is much higher than the A350F. It makes no financial sense to operate a freighter which is 20 tons heavier and requires a MTOW which is 30 tons higher, to lift the same payload and volume over the same distance.

So it’s not a matter what I want, it’s a question of what’s on the table.

The XF will have to be based on the -9 to offer a viable alternative, but it’s an alternative which effectively puts it in the same payload bracket as a 747-8F. You may wish to consult the sales number for the 747-8F vs the 777F to gauge which part of the market has the biggest appeal.

All in all, it seems more like you’re having a problem with the competitiveness of the A350F.

Kikko19 wrote:

marcelh wrote:

ElroyJetson wrote:

Excellent news for Boeing and the 777X family.

IMHO Qatar ordering the 777XF is just as obvious as Southwest is ordering the 737MAX.
With the escalating dispute between Qatar and Airbus, it’s the perfect time to show the world Qatar and Boeing are BFF.

B will be the only friend of QR. or maybe they can just call Embraer to get diversified friendship.

It might be but, as we could see from WW's intervention this week, the actions of Airbus are rather unhealthy for the industry. So, maybe there will further airlines down the road with these two only friends (B and E). Or A will backdown and review their overall approach.

As for the Freighter order, it is no surprise since QR relies heavily on Boeing for their freight division. But it could be something like Qantas and KLM: Airbus scooping one extra customer from under Boeing's nose.

I think that we would only see something worth of retaliation from AAB if he actually orders NB passengers planes from Boeing. That would be a change. There's the chance since they will need to order something to replace the A321 order that got cancelled.

mig17 wrote:

Pretty sure the A350F was tailor-made for QR

That would be incorrect. The A350F is no more tailor-made for QR than the passenger versions of the same aircraft. The A350 was specifically aimed at replacing the A340-500/600 and the 777-200ER/-300ER. Only could argue it was more the latter than the former, and such an argument would hold a lot of water.

The A350F was specifically designed to usurp the hold Boeing has on the upper-end of the freighter market, specifically as replacements for the 777F and 747-400F. It just happens to be that those are the two freighter types operated by QR, but that doesn’t mean Airbus tailor-made the aircraft for QR. It was designed with a much broader appeal.

zeke wrote:

With the Emir visiting the US I would have thought the agenda to revolve around Afghanistan, potential incursion in Ukrainian and secure gas supply for Europe, and Iran.

That alone could fill a month of meetings.

Thought QR was more of an airshow event ordering organisation.

If Qatar wasn't sitting on the world's largest field of natural gas, I think QR would be just another ME airline. As it is, they have money, tons of it!

Who goes to Doha, or anywhere else in Qatar for vacation? At least in Dubai you can.

And what happens after the Covid cargo boom is over?

B777LRF wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

All you have said concerning the 777XF is speculation. Why can’t you want both manufacturers to have good and competitive freighters?

The fact the XF will have a much higher OEW than the A350F is not a matter of speculation, those are cold hard fact. Just as it’s a fact the XF will have a MTOW which is much higher than the A350F. It makes no financial sense to operate a freighter which is 20 tons heavier and requires a MTOW which is 30 tons higher, to lift the same payload and volume over the same distance.

So it’s not a matter what I want, it’s a question of what’s on the table.

The XF will have to be based on the -9 to offer a viable alternative, but it’s an alternative which effectively puts it in the same payload bracket as a 747-8F. You may wish to consult the sales number for the 747-8F vs the 777F to gauge which part of the market has the biggest appeal.

All in all, it seems more like you’re having a problem with the competitiveness of the A350F.

Not really, I’ve always known it’s a competitive aircraft and I’ve said it many times. It’s going to be heavier obviously. But a lot of what you said is still speculation.

Aircraft with no configuration? How do you know

Secondly the 747-8, the reason it didn’t do well was because it was a 4 engined aircraft and that was very very heavy. It’s hard to make money on a 747-8 that’s burning 10-11 tonnes of fuel an hour. However a 747-8 volume aircraft burning 6-7 tonnes of fuel an hour? That is a very very strong USP.

The 350F has been made up of conversions and LOIs. It hasn’t take a stronghold off of any of Boeings cargo customers like UPS, FEDEX or even cargolux. So these are the things you have to look at.

I think they’ll be different aircraft and both competitive. And if QR goes on to order 30 freighters, that’s 3 times the 11 or so the 350F has. Will I start making noise? No because the game is not over. Both have something to offer. But this is going slightly off topic.

QR may launch 777XF next week. If you don’t like it, sorry

B777LRF wrote:

mig17 wrote:

Pretty sure the A350F was tailor-made for QR

That would be incorrect. The A350F is no more tailor-made for QR than the passenger versions of the same aircraft. The A350 was specifically aimed at replacing the A340-500/600 and the 777-200ER/-300ER. Only could argue it was more the latter than the former, and such an argument would hold a lot of water.

The A350F was specifically designed to usurp the hold Boeing has on the upper-end of the freighter market, specifically as replacements for the 777F and 747-400F. It just happens to be that those are the two freighter types operated by QR, but that doesn’t mean Airbus tailor-made the aircraft for QR. It was designed with a much broader appeal.

I can agree with that.

Opus99 wrote:

The 350F has been made up of conversions and LOIs. It hasn’t take a stronghold off of any of Boeings cargo customers like UPS, FEDEX or even cargolux. So these are the things you have to look at.

Sorry Opus, but with that logic, the 777-XF is currently made up of ... nothing.
Thing is, the freighter market knows the 777-XF is comming and awaits it's arrival to choose between it and the A350-F. A few customers already made up their minds for other reason.
When the specs of both aircraft will be fully known, we will see if we are in a "the winner get it all" or "an open competition" scenario. The fact that the A350F got "some LOIs and conversions" is in fact not a good sign for the XF (at least the specs that were proposed before DAS) even if the real game is the full freighters airlines and others like LH.

mig17 wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

The 350F has been made up of conversions and LOIs. It hasn’t take a stronghold off of any of Boeings cargo customers like UPS, FEDEX or even cargolux. So these are the things you have to look at.

Sorry Opus, but with that logic, the 777-XF is currently made up of ... nothing.
Thing is, the freighter market knows the 777-XF is comming and awaits it's arrival to choose between it and the A350-F. A few customers already made up their minds for other reason.
When the specs of both aircraft will be fully known, we will see if we are in a "the winner get it all" or "an open competition" scenario. The fact that the A350F got "some LOIs and conversions" is in fact not a good sign for the XF (at least the specs that were proposed before DAS) even if the real game is the full freighters airlines and others like LH.

I agree with you. Let’s wait and let the market decide

B777LRF wrote:

Opus99 wrote:

All you have said concerning the 777XF is speculation. Why can’t you want both manufacturers to have good and competitive freighters?

The fact the XF will have a much higher OEW than the A350F is not a matter of speculation, those are cold hard fact. Just as it’s a fact the XF will have a MTOW which is much higher than the A350F. It makes no financial sense to operate a freighter which is 20 tons heavier and requires a MTOW which is 30 tons higher, to lift the same payload and volume over the same distance.

So it’s not a matter what I want, it’s a question of what’s on the table.

The XF will have to be based on the -9 to offer a viable alternative, but it’s an alternative which effectively puts it in the same payload bracket as a 747-8F. You may wish to consult the sales number for the 747-8F vs the 777F to gauge which part of the market has the biggest appeal.

All in all, it seems more like you’re having a problem with the competitiveness of the A350F.

Where are you getting they can lift the same amount?(A350F and 777Xf). The rumours this past summer were the 777xF lifting about 115T in the same articles where they had the A350F right at about 109T which is what it ended up being.

That is a significant difference and that was before the rumours of the 777xF being pushed to 365T surfaced. That could push it into the 748F Cargo class (over 120T) and give the same density as the 77F. The A350F will not be able to lift the same density as the market leading 77F where all the volume is. The rumours suggest Boeing is not going to give up anything on density.

BTW - if you want an airframe to lift more you don't make it heavier by stretching it. An 779F would probably have an issue lifting 85% of the density of the 77F.

The other thing we have to remember is that there will be space for both 350F and 748F.

Boeing sold 126 744F, 107 748F and 284 77F. That is 517 frames. The Cargo market is also projected to grow significantly in the next 20 years.

It's not hard to see 500-600 big freighters selling in that timeframe. Who knows who will sell what - but I would have to guess the "loser" will sell at least 200. Selling 200 as a derivative in this size class is not losing. Boeing made significant money on those previous programs at those volumes.

Airbus is new to the market - so I think it may take time for them to take significant market share - but they will take good share.

Boeing's 2021 Market forecast has the Market size over 80T at 890 new wide body units to 2040 and 1,720 Conversions (it seems like at least half of the conversions will be SA - maybe about 500-600 77W conversions). See this

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/marke ... /downloads

and See page 13

https://www.boeing.com/resources/boeing ... Sept21.pdf

The interesting thing is it seems like they are projecting 500-600 Medium Widebodies as well - 767/330/787 size. Hence why I think they eventually do an 70-80T 787f.

The capital cost of an 787F should be a lot less than A350F/777XF.

How can one be so "inteligent" to burn the bridge with one of the only 2 constructors market?
Now, U-turn Al will be at the mercy of B. Remember the FR case? This, of QR's I think will enter on the history. On how to do not make bussines.
And I suppose they think will receive from B a "blow-my-mind" deal for the intended purchase?!

B777LRF wrote:

The XF will have to be based on the -9 to offer a viable alternative, but it’s an alternative which effectively puts it in the same payload bracket as a 747-8F.

The 777XF length was discussed in the prior 777XF thread. Boeing has said that the new length is somewhere between the -8 and -9. We suspected it has to do with optimum pallet configuration along with fuselage plug frame spacing count.

Boeing also suggested that they may push up the length of the -8 (to match the length of the XF?).

bt

talonone wrote:

can one be so "inteligent" to burn the bridge with one of the only 2 constructors market?
Now, U-turn Al will be at the mercy of B.

Depends, if you run your business by pitting your two suppliers to get the lowest cost, then not so much. If you run your business by having a cordial relationship with your one supplier and get reasonable prices where both sides win, then they'll be just fine.

Boeing is familiar with this second relationship.

Example: Southwest, Alaska, Spirit, CFM for the 737.

bt

bikerthai wrote:

talonone wrote:

can one be so "inteligent" to burn the bridge with one of the only 2 constructors market?
Now, U-turn Al will be at the mercy of B.

Depends, if you run your business by pitting your two suppliers to get the lowest cost, then not so much. If you run your business by having a cordial relationship with your one supplier and get reasonable prices where both sides win, then they'll be just fine.

Boeing is familiar with this second relationship.

Example: Southwest, Alaska, Spirit, CFM for the 737.

bt

Spirit?

morrisond wrote:

The other thing we have to remember is that there will be space for both 350F and 748F.

Boeing sold 126 744F, 107 748F and 284 77F. That is 517 frames. The Cargo market is also projected to grow significantly in the next 20 years.

It's not hard to see 500-600 big freighters selling in that timeframe. Who knows who will sell what - but I would have to guess the "loser" will sell at least 200. Selling 200 as a derivative in this size class is not losing. Boeing made significant money on those previous programs at those volumes.

Airbus is new to the market - so I think it may take time for them to take significant market share - but they will take good share.

Boeing's 2021 Market forecast has the Market size over 80T at 890 new wide body units to 2040 and 1,720 Conversions (it seems like at least half of the conversions will be SA - maybe about 500-600 77W conversions). See this

https://www.boeing.com/commercial/marke ... /downloads

and See page 13

https://www.boeing.com/resources/boeing ... Sept21.pdf

The interesting thing is it seems like they are projecting 500-600 Medium Widebodies as well - 767/330/787 size. Hence why I think they eventually do an 70-80T 787f.

The capital cost of an 787F should be a lot less than A350F/777XF.

I don't have any issue with any of this really, but offer an observation.

I think a 787F will find itself in the same "no-mans-land" as the A330F in terms of being medium payload, but full wingspan for most of the big operators.
Not to say it won't sell, but I don't predict a lot of volume compared to say the 767F or 777F.
Slightly off-topic for the 777XF at QR....., where I do see a lot of growth in the modern environment is in a "A321XLRF" style long range narrowbody - ground which would have been 757F territory if it were still in full production. I think fragmentation is still a "thing"....

Rgds

RalXWB wrote:

Spirit?

Yeah, I know that's a special case. Spirit is the sole supplier to Boeing for the 737 fuselages. Now, they probably have contractual requirements stemming back to the time when Boeing transfered their Wichita facility to Spirit, but you can work to the letter of the contract or the spirit of the contract. That is the difference between cordial and confrontational.

bt

astuteman wrote:

where I do see a lot of growth in the modern environment is in a "A321XLRF" style long range narrowbody - ground which would have been 757F territory if it were still in full production. I think fragmentation is still a "thing"....

Maybe, but how much of that narrow body freighter fragmentation can be absorbed by the larger cargo hold of the wide body passenger planes. After all, the wide bodies were designed for long distance and to get a narrow body to go those distances you are trading off payload for aux fuel tanks.

bt