Still no replacement in sight for the Dash 8's, I bet ATR-72 is on the list

What’s the rush? I don’t recall their Dash 8s in being such a state as to require replacements right now. If they really want to then ATRs would make some sense, but it wouldn’t shock me to see Embraer pitching their new turboprop to them as well

452QX wrote:

What’s the rush? I don’t recall their Dash 8s in being such a state as to require replacements right now. If they really want to then ATRs would make some sense, but it wouldn’t shock me to see Embraer pitching their new turboprop to them as well

Plot twist, it's the 175E2

Interesting to note NZ has flagged to replace their Q300 and ATR with next gen aircraft - electric, hydrogen or the like. Are the QFLink Dash-8 used on differing missions? Why not wait a bit longer and go for a new model longer term? With the A220 coming to replace the 717 QFLink will have a fair bit of investment headed their way, not sure they will get the return on capital to overburden it right now with a Dadh-8 replacement.

The Q300s are probs starting to show their age, but Q400s should have another 10yrs left! Surely the Q300s could soldier on for another 5yrs? Their capacity is also unique along with the SAABs in that it doesn’t require regional screening in many ports - any increase will cause issues. When did they get rid of their last 200?

Throughout the pandemic we’ve heard of people leaving cities for the coast and regions, if this shift continues, or even if only the current population don’t return to the city - I wonder if we could see changes in regional air travel in Australia? I hope we start to see some more regional fragmentation- which I think we saw a fair bit of post covid. More NSW towns linked to Melbourne, and Brisbane, more Victorian towns linked to SYD. On a sidenote always thought it a shame we never saw the Network Fokkers over East!

smi0006 wrote:

Interesting to note NZ has flagged to replace their Q300 and ATR with next gen aircraft - electric, hydrogen or the like. Are the QFLink Dash-8 used on differing missions? Why not wait a bit longer and go for a new model longer term? With the A220 coming to replace the 717 QFLink will have a fair bit of investment headed their way, not sure they will get the return on capital to overburden it right now with a Dadh-8 replacement.

The Q300s are probs starting to show their age, but Q400s should have another 10yrs left! Surely the Q300s could soldier on for another 5yrs? Their capacity is also unique along with the SAABs in that it doesn’t require regional screening in many ports - any increase will cause issues. When did they get rid of their last 200? !

The 200s are still around. They are needed for Lord Howe Island, where sending an ATR42 would be overkill with the restricted number of visitors allowed per year on the island.

smi0006 wrote:

Interesting to note NZ has flagged to replace their Q300 and ATR with next gen aircraft - electric, hydrogen or the like. Are the QFLink Dash-8 used on differing missions? Why not wait a bit longer and go for a new model longer term? With the A220 coming to replace the 717 QFLink will have a fair bit of investment headed their way, not sure they will get the return on capital to overburden it right now with a Dadh-8 replacement. !

NZ signed an MoU with Airbus late last year to partner on the developments of the Airbus ZEROe range. To be there next short short-haul back bone from the early 2030s.

NZ’s Q300s are 2005/2006 builds so around 2030 would probably right in time for replacement. The ATR’s are pretty new, the last 72-600 just arrived recently, so will be around for an while.

If NZ was to get an alternative powered prop, there is an high chance QF would follow.

I mean QF's Q400 is not that old at all, why in a rush to replace?

Q200 is required for Lord Howe as mentioned; I'm not sure if ATR42 has the required performance, much less the electric plane.

Also bear in mind QF's Q400 can fly some relatively long flights (1.5-2hr or so) and this is with Q400's speed performance; so not sure if comparing these with NZ is a good idea.

Michael

I work with QantasLink’s Dash fleet and Rex’s Saabs daily and I see no reason whatsoever to replace them.

Not only are the 400s young, they’re amazingly quick compared to the competition.

The 300s and 200s may be showing their age but like the 400s, they’re so well looked after that there really is no need to look at replacements yet. As mentioned above, they also each serve their own routes perfectly.

My regional port will be commencing flights to BNE next month with the Q400. That’s a fantastic addition to regional towns whose population save 90 minutes compared to flying to Sydney or Melbourne and connecting on a jet.

Across all three types, their dispatch reliability is fantastic and whenever something does go wrong the parts are easy to source.

The ATR is only suggested almost 100% of the time purely because it’s really the only current non-exotic replacement out there.

But really I see the Dash fleet lasting quite a while longer until new tech is around.

QantasLink loves the Dash for its speed, reliability, flexibility and cheap operating costs.

At the end of the day of course there are replacements that could occur but for minuscule savings at large costs with current tech.

Rex on the other hand signed an MOU to discuss the idea of ATRs as the unfortunate reality is the Saabs, as much as they’re built like tanks, are starting to become very tired looks and parts wise. They do however serve the airline wonderfully and the ATR is a huge step up in capacity.

There have been reports that DeHavilland Canada wants to build smaller Qs again based on a shrink of an updated Q400.
https://skiesmag.com/news/de-havilland- ... ash-8-400/

Also some preliminary work done to get a new engine on the Q400 refresh.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/d ... 68326.html

That Q400 refresh is apparently also to include new avionics and I'd assume they are also looking at other props in development. That being said they are pausing production for now until demand picks up again. Maybe replace Dash-8s with the refreshed version in the future?

eamondzhang wrote:

I mean QF's Q400 is not that old at all, why in a rush to replace?

Q200 is required for Lord Howe as mentioned; I'm not sure if ATR42 has the required performance, much less the electric plane.

Lord Howe should be perfect territory for the ATR 42-600S (STOL). This can operate from 800m runways, with a range of 600nm, rising to 700nm from a 900 meter runway.

stratable wrote:

There have been reports that DeHavilland Canada wants to build smaller Qs again based on a shrink of an updated Q400.
https://skiesmag.com/news/de-havilland- ... ash-8-400/

Also some preliminary work done to get a new engine on the Q400 refresh.
https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/d ... 68326.html

That Q400 refresh is apparently also to include new avionics and I'd assume they are also looking at other props in development. That being said they are pausing production for now until demand picks up again. Maybe replace Dash-8s with the refreshed version in the future?

I'd be very surprised if the Dash makes it back into production. That being said they are also some relatively new Q400's stored at the moment I'd assume QF would give them a look in.

LoganTheBogan wrote:

My regional port will be commencing flights to BNE next month with the Q400. That’s a fantastic addition to regional towns whose population save 90 minutes compared to flying to Sydney or Melbourne and connecting on a jet.

I'm guessing you're in WGA? As someone with lots of family down there I'm quite excited about the possibility to fly non-stop (even if it will be almost 2 hours on a prop). It's a shame JetGo didn't last though.

The stop in SYD isn't an issue for me, and looking at the timetable it has more convenient departure/arrival times than the non-stop on some days, but QF have seen a market that needs service and have the planes to do it. An E190 would be great but that's too much plane.

Th Q400/Q300/Q200 at QantasLink ain't broke, so why fix it? There was an interior refresh that commenced a few years ago on the fleet so there's plenty of life left in the aircraft from a customer perspective. As has been pointed out, the Q200s serve as a bit of a niche, and the Q300s are a perfect size for feeling out new regional routes along the east coast before upsizing them. Now with the Alliance E190s in place, there is a bit more granularity in the regional fleet that for more up-or down-gauging.

Agree with the above posts. The Dash works well for QF and will soldier on for a long time. The Q400s are no where near replacement age.
While the ATR would be fine replacement for the 200&300s on the shorter routes the speed and range of the Q400 is really useful on the longer regional routes and QF wouldn't get the same number of flights from a slower aircraft.

PlymSpotter wrote:

eamondzhang wrote:

I mean QF's Q400 is not that old at all, why in a rush to replace?

Q200 is required for Lord Howe as mentioned; I'm not sure if ATR42 has the required performance, much less the electric plane.

Lord Howe should be perfect territory for the ATR 42-600S (STOL). This can operate from 800m runways, with a range of 600nm, rising to 700nm from a 900 meter runway.

Issue is, ATR42-600 need to carry return fuel plus contingency for the mission - this is what Q200 is doing. And SYD-LDH is 425nm one-way, not including reserves.

If ATR42-600 cannot carry return fuel plus meaningful payload then no it's not a suitable replacement for Q200 at QF.

Michael

eamondzhang wrote:

PlymSpotter wrote:

eamondzhang wrote:

I mean QF's Q400 is not that old at all, why in a rush to replace?

Q200 is required for Lord Howe as mentioned; I'm not sure if ATR42 has the required performance, much less the electric plane.

Lord Howe should be perfect territory for the ATR 42-600S (STOL). This can operate from 800m runways, with a range of 600nm, rising to 700nm from a 900 meter runway.

Issue is, ATR42-600 need to carry return fuel plus contingency for the mission - this is what Q200 is doing. And SYD-LDH is 425nm one-way, not including reserves.

If ATR42-600 cannot carry return fuel plus meaningful payload then no it's not a suitable replacement for Q200 at QF.

Michael

LDH is return fuelled, it needs a STOL aircraft with ~1000 nm miles range. The Q200 is just about the only aircraft capable of filling this niche.

To the OP, the 300s are starting to get up there in age but the Q400s are still relatively young. I’m pretty confident they won’t be replaced until the end of this decade, so there’s still a few years to see what new options emerge.

Qantas need the range and speed for some relatively long sectors that already exceed 2 hours in the Q400. Electric aircraft are therefore unlikely to suit their needs until their is a seismic leap in technology. At this stage the new Embraer looks most promising IMHO.

SYD330 wrote:

Still no replacement in sight for the Dash 8's, I bet ATR-72 is on the list

Maybe they will subcontract it out.

Why not buy some of the new A220-200 or 300? It would be great for the first time in Australia service A220.

Q

eamondzhang wrote:

PlymSpotter wrote:

eamondzhang wrote:

I mean QF's Q400 is not that old at all, why in a rush to replace?

Q200 is required for Lord Howe as mentioned; I'm not sure if ATR42 has the required performance, much less the electric plane.

Lord Howe should be perfect territory for the ATR 42-600S (STOL). This can operate from 800m runways, with a range of 600nm, rising to 700nm from a 900 meter runway.

Issue is, ATR42-600 need to carry return fuel plus contingency for the mission - this is what Q200 is doing. And SYD-LDH is 425nm one-way, not including reserves.

If ATR42-600 cannot carry return fuel plus meaningful payload then no it's not a suitable replacement for Q200 at QF.

Michael

There shouldn't actually be an issue here, although precise range / performance figures haven't been released by ATR yet.

The standard ATR 42's range at MTOW (48/50 pax) is a little over 700nm, but thanks to the commonality with the ATR 72 it has a fuel capacity greater than it can ever realistically use (4,500kg). The -600S will trade payload for performance, but that also unlocks additional range when departing from a non STOL airport (i.e. an outbound leg from SYD to LDH). By means of an example, the -42-600 burns around 800kg/h, so you trade 8-9 pax (at roughly 100kg for an average pax + bag) to unlock another hour / 300nm in the sky. This brings the 850nm SYD-LDH-SYD comfortably within range.

The trip costs are lower than a Q200, so limited to 40 seats it would at least match the operating economics and add an additional 4 available seats inbound to LDH, and potentially more outbound, depending on real world performance.


Dan

Q wrote:

Why not buy some of the new A220-200 or 300? It would be great for the first time in Australia service A220.

Q

They are. Qantas has 20 A223's on order to replace the 717's, Deliveries start in 2023. They have options for more in the future.

zeke wrote:

SYD330 wrote:

Still no replacement in sight for the Dash 8's, I bet ATR-72 is on the list

Maybe they will subcontract it out.

Or not to be rude - they don’t operate to Lord Howe? I’m sure it’s some nice money, but hardly
Going to send QF to the brink if they don’t operate it. Q200 is a nice cheap solution from an existing fleet, but a small single niche route is hardly worth purchasing a distinct fleet type. Is the route underwritten by Dep of Infrastructure like NLK? If so they could also run the risk of loosing the contract to another operator.

smi0006 wrote:

zeke wrote:

SYD330 wrote:

Still no replacement in sight for the Dash 8's, I bet ATR-72 is on the list

Maybe they will subcontract it out.

Or not to be rude - they don’t operate to Lord Howe? I’m sure it’s some nice money, but hardly
Going to send QF to the brink if they don’t operate it. Q200 is a nice cheap solution from an existing fleet, but a small single niche route is hardly worth purchasing a distinct fleet type. Is the route underwritten by Dep of Infrastructure like NLK? If so they could also run the risk of loosing the contract to another operator.

Lord Howe is NSW so anything to do with contracts is the NSW Government.

NTLDaz wrote:

smi0006 wrote:

zeke wrote:

Maybe they will subcontract it out.

Or not to be rude - they don’t operate to Lord Howe? I’m sure it’s some nice money, but hardly
Going to send QF to the brink if they don’t operate it. Q200 is a nice cheap solution from an existing fleet, but a small single niche route is hardly worth purchasing a distinct fleet type. Is the route underwritten by Dep of Infrastructure like NLK? If so they could also run the risk of loosing the contract to another operator.

Lord Howe is NSW so anything to do with contracts is the NSW Government.

Im not sure necessarily- NLK was under jurisdiction of NSW, now transferred to QLD I believe, but Department of Infrastructure paid the underwrite for NZ and later QF.

smi0006 wrote:

zeke wrote:

SYD330 wrote:

Still no replacement in sight for the Dash 8's, I bet ATR-72 is on the list

Maybe they will subcontract it out.

Or not to be rude - they don’t operate to Lord Howe? I’m sure it’s some nice money, but hardly
Going to send QF to the brink if they don’t operate it. Q200 is a nice cheap solution from an existing fleet, but a small single niche route is hardly worth purchasing a distinct fleet type. Is the route underwritten by Dep of Infrastructure like NLK? If so they could also run the risk of loosing the contract to another operator.

As I’m not very familiar with Lord Howe Island (besides its small population and serene appearance): is the majority of traffic to the island tourist-heavy? I ask because: given its location, is their only other link to the mainland via ferry? If so: are local business owners amiable to the idea that their business will have to be conducted in more time than a plane can deliver?

Lord Howe Island may be a niche, but much like essential air service in some parts of the US (not all, mind you: think Alaska), it seems that airlift is necessary for them. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.

As to a possible Q200 replacement, perhaps that ATR42-600S could be a potential point of interest (especially if capacity is restricted).

NASBWI wrote:

smi0006 wrote:

zeke wrote:

Maybe they will subcontract it out.

Or not to be rude - they don’t operate to Lord Howe? I’m sure it’s some nice money, but hardly
Going to send QF to the brink if they don’t operate it. Q200 is a nice cheap solution from an existing fleet, but a small single niche route is hardly worth purchasing a distinct fleet type. Is the route underwritten by Dep of Infrastructure like NLK? If so they could also run the risk of loosing the contract to another operator.

As I’m not very familiar with Lord Howe Island (besides its small population and serene appearance): is the majority of traffic to the island tourist-heavy? I ask because: given its location, is their only other link to the mainland via ferry? If so: are local business owners amiable to the idea that their business will have to be conducted in more time than a plane can deliver?

Lord Howe Island may be a niche, but much like essential air service in some parts of the US (not all, mind you: think Alaska), it seems that airlift is necessary for them. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.

As to a possible Q200 replacement, perhaps that ATR42-600S could be a potential point of interest (especially if capacity is restricted).

There isn’t a passenger ferry to Lord Howe, but most cargo does go by boat. Most airline traffic is tourism related, but even that is very niche.

Apparently the runway can’t be extended as it would require filling in the bay, which is a protected marine park. From what Plyspotter said upthread about the ATR-42 STOL being able to carry a heavier payload (in this case fuel) when STOL isn’t required, that sounds like a good option.

There is not necessarily a need for Qantas to order it, though. If the ATR doesn’t fit their broader fleet requirements then they would likely stop serving the market once the rest of the Dash 8 fleet is retired. A sub fleet of 2 Dash 8 is very different to a stand-alone fleet of 2 ATRs. Who/what/how would replace them, though, is an open question as the likes of Rex and Link probably couldn’t justify the expense of new aircraft. If the Q200s still had some life in them, Skytrans could be the best option as an existing Dash 8 operator.

smi0006 wrote:

NTLDaz wrote:

smi0006 wrote:

Or not to be rude - they don’t operate to Lord Howe? I’m sure it’s some nice money, but hardly
Going to send QF to the brink if they don’t operate it. Q200 is a nice cheap solution from an existing fleet, but a small single niche route is hardly worth purchasing a distinct fleet type. Is the route underwritten by Dep of Infrastructure like NLK? If so they could also run the risk of loosing the contract to another operator.

Lord Howe is NSW so anything to do with contracts is the NSW Government.

Im not sure necessarily- NLK was under jurisdiction of NSW, now transferred to QLD I believe, but Department of Infrastructure paid the underwrite for NZ and later QF.

Qld have taken over some functions from NSW - mainly health and education. But Norfolk Island is an Australian external territory. NI residents vote in the Australian election in an ACT seat. Also, NI has an administrator appointed by the Commonwealth Government.

Lord Howe Island is unequivocally a part of NSW. People on Lord Howe Island vote in NSW elections for the seat of Port Macquarie.

No matter what happens with Qantas and the Dash 8 the NSW Government will ensure some type of air service is operated to the island.

RyanairGuru wrote:

NASBWI wrote:

smi0006 wrote:

Or not to be rude - they don’t operate to Lord Howe? I’m sure it’s some nice money, but hardly
Going to send QF to the brink if they don’t operate it. Q200 is a nice cheap solution from an existing fleet, but a small single niche route is hardly worth purchasing a distinct fleet type. Is the route underwritten by Dep of Infrastructure like NLK? If so they could also run the risk of loosing the contract to another operator.

As I’m not very familiar with Lord Howe Island (besides its small population and serene appearance): is the majority of traffic to the island tourist-heavy? I ask because: given its location, is their only other link to the mainland via ferry? If so: are local business owners amiable to the idea that their business will have to be conducted in more time than a plane can deliver?

Lord Howe Island may be a niche, but much like essential air service in some parts of the US (not all, mind you: think Alaska), it seems that airlift is necessary for them. Feel free to correct me if I’m wrong.

As to a possible Q200 replacement, perhaps that ATR42-600S could be a potential point of interest (especially if capacity is restricted).

There isn’t a passenger ferry to Lord Howe, but most cargo does go by boat. Most airline traffic is tourism related, but even that is very niche.

Apparently the runway can’t be extended as it would require filling in the bay, which is a protected marine park. From what Plyspotter said upthread about the ATR-42 STOL being able to carry a heavier payload (in this case fuel) when STOL isn’t required, that sounds like a good option.

There is not necessarily a need for Qantas to order it, though. If the ATR doesn’t fit their broader fleet requirements then they would likely stop serving the market once the rest of the Dash 8 fleet is retired. A sub fleet of 2 Dash 8 is very different to a stand-alone fleet of 2 ATRs. Who/what/how would replace them, though, is an open question as the likes of Rex and Link probably couldn’t justify the expense of new aircraft. If the Q200s still had some life in them, Skytrans could be the best option as an existing Dash 8 operator.

Qantas have extended their contract to service through to March 2025 so it seems there is still a bit of life left in them. Skytrans is an interesting one - I've flown them many times on Cape York. Question is would they move a plane to Sydney ? Probably if the price was right. Johnathon Thurston water bottles on an internal NSW flight would be quite the thing.

Lord howe island used to use a flying boat. Would love to see that again. Alas

NTLDaz wrote:

smi0006 wrote:

NTLDaz wrote:

Lord Howe Island is unequivocally a part of NSW. People on Lord Howe Island vote in NSW elections for the seat of Port Macquarie.

Historical note: Until the flying boat service ended in 1974 (?) they vote in what ever seat Rose Bay was in.

For anybody who is interested here is a trip report I posted about a trip I took to Lord Howe, posted 11 years ago, the trip took place 50 years ago!!!

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=971229&p=13013045#p13013045

Gemuser

Per another thread, Longview is merging Viking and DHC. Given Viking's experience with rebuilding the Beaver and Twin Otter, it doesn't seem unreasonable that they may offer a similar option for the Dash 8 100 and 200.

It's harder to do with pressurized aircraft, but it may be worthwhile.

Gemuser wrote:

NTLDaz wrote:

smi0006 wrote:

Historical note: Until the flying boat service ended in 1974 (?) they vote in what ever seat Rose Bay was in.

For anybody who is interested here is a trip report I posted about a trip I took to Lord Howe, posted 11 years ago, the trip took place 50 years ago!!!

viewtopic.php?f=9&t=971229&p=13013045#p13013045

Gemuser

Historical note 2: Although part of the NSW state electorate of Port Macquarie, Lord Howe is part of the Federal electorate of Sydney.

The LDH runway extension report had been in the too hard basket for a while before Covid hit, and I'm sure has been gathering dust since. Keeping the Q200 flying is still the cheapest option, and they aren't even 30yo yet.

The Rex SAAB replacement seems a more pressing issue than the QF Dash.