Moderators: richierich, ua900, PanAm_DC10, hOMSaR
32andBelow wrote:I support EAS but the whole program is collapsing. There isn’t going to be anyone reasonable to fly these routes if SkyWest leaves them.
Chuska wrote:32andBelow wrote:I support EAS but the whole program is collapsing. There isn’t going to be anyone reasonable to fly these routes if SkyWest leaves them.
So true. In recent years we've lost Great Lakes and Seaport and now Boutique is collapsing. Unless the rules are eased up on pilots for commuter airlines, we all see the end coming.
lightsaber wrote:Chuska wrote:32andBelow wrote:I support EAS but the whole program is collapsing. There isn’t going to be anyone reasonable to fly these routes if SkyWest leaves them.
So true. In recent years we've lost Great Lakes and Seaport and now Boutique is collapsing. Unless the rules are eased up on pilots for commuter airlines, we all see the end coming.
Sadly, I agree. However, if too many small destinations loose service, there will be a political will to change the rules. I'm not saying if in time for Skywest, that I cannot predict, but I think we'll see a relaxing of rules for the first officer to reduce the time between getting the commercial pilot license and flying as the co-pilot. When? Anyone's guess is probably better than mine.
Lightsaber
32andBelow wrote:lightsaber wrote:Chuska wrote:
So true. In recent years we've lost Great Lakes and Seaport and now Boutique is collapsing. Unless the rules are eased up on pilots for commuter airlines, we all see the end coming.
Sadly, I agree. However, if too many small destinations loose service, there will be a political will to change the rules. I'm not saying if in time for Skywest, that I cannot predict, but I think we'll see a relaxing of rules for the first officer to reduce the time between getting the commercial pilot license and flying as the co-pilot. When? Anyone's guess is probably better than mine.
Lightsaber
It’s gonna be hard to change them if they keep wheeling out sully explaining why they need to be what they are
atrude777 wrote:I think however..to use the Bus you're claiming..CGI needs Bus service to STL, not PAH.
If we are going to use CGI, they need service by Bus, Bus Service wouldn't be feasible for CGI-PAH to connect, and vice versa.
CGI-ORD was doing well before COVID hit, and it's unfortunate to see CGI got hit harder then PAH did.
Chuska wrote:32andBelow wrote:I support EAS but the whole program is collapsing. There isn’t going to be anyone reasonable to fly these routes if SkyWest leaves them.
So true. In recent years we've lost Great Lakes and Seaport and now Boutique is collapsing. Unless the rules are eased up on pilots for commuter airlines, we all see the end coming.
MILakes wrote:Seat1F wrote:The EAS program is largely a waste of money IMHO. I'm in favor of the entire program being canned...at least at a federal level. Let states step in to fund flying for "un-served/under-served communities" if they so choose. If Muskegon wants nonstop air service, the state of Michigan can pay the cost if they want to. I'm sorry but the US government should not be funding this program except in maybe some unique/extreme cases (no other airport within a 4 hour drive maybe). I do not consider a 2-3 hour drive to get to an airport with commercial air service to be a hardship. From where I live in Michigan (not considered metro Detroit), it takes me roughly 90 minutes to get to DTW. For me, it's an easy trip...not at all a hardship. FNT is about the same time distance but I never fly from there due to their limited flight options.
Completely agree. Having lived in both Michigan and Colorado, it is beyond all common reasoning that both MKG and PUB are "EAS worthy." Both about 45 miles on a single interstate to GRR and COS respectively. I agree with many on these EAS discussions about AK and some truly remote areas (mostly western states) being worthy of some taxpayer subsidies for air service in 2022- but the vast majority have turned into political and community status arguments..
usxguy wrote:I bet Pierre and Watertown are glad they have DAC now instead of SkyWest. OO kicked & screamed about DAC winning it, and even ran flights without subsidy for like 6 months....
crjflyboy wrote:Perhaps fuel costs are a reason for the Skywest decision ... they bid on these routes when fuel was much cheaper
DiamondFlyer wrote:crjflyboy wrote:Perhaps fuel costs are a reason for the Skywest decision ... they bid on these routes when fuel was much cheaper
Not at all. Skywest is hemorrhaging pilots (as all regionals are). I'm hearing that its a 2-3 month wait at Skywest now to start OE after completion of sims for new hires.
crjflyboy wrote:DiamondFlyer wrote:crjflyboy wrote:Perhaps fuel costs are a reason for the Skywest decision ... they bid on these routes when fuel was much cheaper
Not at all. Skywest is hemorrhaging pilots (as all regionals are). I'm hearing that its a 2-3 month wait at Skywest now to start OE after completion of sims for new hires.
Not sure what my question on fuel costs has to do with pilots ... ?
DiamondFlyer wrote:MIflyer12 wrote:DiamondFlyer wrote:The DOT may not have to allow them to back out of it. If Skywest isn't allowed out of it, they'll simply just cancel the flights day after day after day after day, until the local city wants to be able to rebid the flying. But then again, no one will step in to cover it.
The DOT has plenty of lawyers. EAS carriers have an ongoing responsibility to demonstrate they are fit, willing, and able to perform the service or transportation.
What fraction of SklyWest's revenues is EAS? Would they dare to put it all at risk?
And Skywest is filing that they aren't fit to do the flying in some cases, and yet the DOT won't let them leave. A very, very small percentage of OO's revenue comes from EAS. They're not going to sacrifice FFD flying to operate some crap EAS flying.
AndoAv8R wrote:As far as western Nebraska goes, Im not sure why Chadron Alliance and Scottsbluff are all EAS (Im very familiar with the area as the family farm is in this area). I would assume Alliance is only getting it because of the big Burlington Northern Santa Fe rail yard, and Im guessing Chadron is seeing the lowest traffic given the route is being flown with a Cessna Caravan.
Chuska wrote:
So true. In recent years we've lost Great Lakes and Seaport and now Boutique is collapsing. Unless the rules are eased up on pilots for commuter airlines, we all see the end coming.
sprxUSA wrote:Of course, they are only cutting 2 flts/week.
Now they will have something like 2x MoWedThuFri, 0 Sat , 1 Sun, 1 tues or something like that. Still adequate it would seem.
Maybe route flights like Frontier in early 80s when they had 737s doing OMA LNK GRI LBF BFF DEN. Guess they got 19-20 pax avg per stop?
drdisque wrote:TBN is a shame as they just recently started that route
PUB, MKG, DEC are all really short flights.
MCW and FOD are pretty close to each other. It might be helpful to coordinate service between those two markets.
AndoAv8R wrote:As far as western Nebraska goes, Im not sure why Chadron Alliance and Scottsbluff are all EAS (Im very familiar with the area as the family farm is in this area). I would assume Alliance is only getting it because of the big Burlington Northern Santa Fe rail yard, and Im guessing Chadron is seeing the lowest traffic given the route is being flown with a Cessna Caravan.
MIflyer12 wrote:TWA902fly wrote:To paint a bigger picture : drive times and distances according to Google Maps to non-EAS airports from all of these:
Alamosa
COS (Colorado Springs) 165 miles, 2:37 drive time.
SAF (Santa Fe) 149 miles, 2:35 drive time.
DRO (Durango) 145 miles, 2:53 drive time.
...
Some of these make more sense than others. Muskegon, Decatur, etc seem like excessive waste of EAS resources. Some smaller towns out west are more understandable, especially given that the mountain passes can close and those drive times can be much longer.
You have omitted some EAS cities like:
Augusta, Maine, to PWM: 59 miles by Interstate, 1:11
Bar Harbor, Maine, to BGR, 51 miles, 1:22
Some eligible cities are a real joke - but eligible they are.
atrude777 wrote:sprxUSA wrote:Of course, they are only cutting 2 flts/week.
Now they will have something like 2x MoWedThuFri, 0 Sat , 1 Sun, 1 tues or something like that. Still adequate it would seem.
Maybe route flights like Frontier in early 80s when they had 737s doing OMA LNK GRI LBF BFF DEN. Guess they got 19-20 pax avg per stop?
Looking at CGI, you're pretty close on your post!
I don't know if the changes start earlier in February but I used March 6th as the start...every day of the week has a flight. Wednesday and Thursday lost their 2nd Flights.
Days with 2 Daily
Sunday, Monday, Friday,
Days with 1 Daily
Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday
For CGI, SkyWest got rid of the RON's and they are now turns in CGI.
2 Flight Days:
Depart ORD at 8:55am and land at 10:23am, and Depart ORD at 1:25pm and land at 2:54pm
Depart CGI at 11:03am, and land at 12:37pm, and Depart CGI at 3:25pm and land at 4:59pm
1 Flight Days:
Depart ORD at 1:25pm and land at 2:54pm
Depart CGI at 3:25pm and land at 4:59pm
Paducah, while not affected by the list, also lost their RONs too and going back to turns.
Alex
SkyVoice wrote:The folks at Muskegon (MKG) are going to scream, but they're only an hour's drive from Grand Rapids. Still, they might be able to salvage some kind of service. Cape Air (9K) is now handling service between Manistee County Blacker Field (MBL) and Chicago, so maybe the folks at MKG can work out something with 9K.
toga998 wrote:Rumor has it that Skywest will be ending most of the EAS contracts when they come up for expiration. With pilot shortages I can see them wanting to focus on routes that make a profit or at least not wanting to risk something that can lose money.
seatrump wrote:toga998 wrote:Rumor has it that Skywest will be ending most of the EAS contracts when they come up for expiration. With pilot shortages I can see them wanting to focus on routes that make a profit or at least not wanting to risk something that can lose money.
Not a rumor. Skywest had their earnings call on Thursday. They are cutting 10-15% of flights in 2022 specifically due to the majors hiring so many of their Captains. They have no problem filling new hire classes currently, but when a Captain leaves it creates two training occurrences. They talk in the earnings call at length about cutting the EAS flights. They will keep the airframes (they own most of them so cost of ownership is relatively low) so they can expand again of their staffing situation changes but something fundamental will have to change for this to occur. Seach Skywest Airlines Earnings Call transcript and you can read every word from the mouths of the Skywest Execs.
Skywest has about 505 airplanes, slightly under half are E175s, the future of the fleet. I would expect that you will see Skywest shrink to about 250-300 airframes over the next 5 years. The only question is the timing of that. The market reacted to the news that the fact that Raymond James downgraded the stock, also as a result of Skywest giving guidance that they would only break even in 2022.
DaveMetroD wrote:If you want to move to the middle of nowhere in Alaska, what right do you have to expect flights on commercial airlines?
If flying commercial airlines is important to you, live closer to a commercial airport.
joeblow10 wrote:seatrump wrote:toga998 wrote:Rumor has it that Skywest will be ending most of the EAS contracts when they come up for expiration. With pilot shortages I can see them wanting to focus on routes that make a profit or at least not wanting to risk something that can lose money.
Not a rumor. Skywest had their earnings call on Thursday. They are cutting 10-15% of flights in 2022 specifically due to the majors hiring so many of their Captains. They have no problem filling new hire classes currently, but when a Captain leaves it creates two training occurrences. They talk in the earnings call at length about cutting the EAS flights. They will keep the airframes (they own most of them so cost of ownership is relatively low) so they can expand again of their staffing situation changes but something fundamental will have to change for this to occur. Seach Skywest Airlines Earnings Call transcript and you can read every word from the mouths of the Skywest Execs.
Skywest has about 505 airplanes, slightly under half are E175s, the future of the fleet. I would expect that you will see Skywest shrink to about 250-300 airframes over the next 5 years. The only question is the timing of that. The market reacted to the news that the fact that Raymond James downgraded the stock, also as a result of Skywest giving guidance that they would only break even in 2022.
Once again… raising the question, who takes over these routes? I imagine the government has to pay a pretty penny going forward - OO bid pretty low on most of these over the past few years (minus ATY/PIR). Companies like Denver Air Connection seem well suited, but I doubt they’re immune to the pilot shortage either.
joeblow10 wrote:seatrump wrote:toga998 wrote:Rumor has it that Skywest will be ending most of the EAS contracts when they come up for expiration. With pilot shortages I can see them wanting to focus on routes that make a profit or at least not wanting to risk something that can lose money.
Not a rumor. Skywest had their earnings call on Thursday. They are cutting 10-15% of flights in 2022 specifically due to the majors hiring so many of their Captains. They have no problem filling new hire classes currently, but when a Captain leaves it creates two training occurrences. They talk in the earnings call at length about cutting the EAS flights. They will keep the airframes (they own most of them so cost of ownership is relatively low) so they can expand again of their staffing situation changes but something fundamental will have to change for this to occur. Seach Skywest Airlines Earnings Call transcript and you can read every word from the mouths of the Skywest Execs.
Skywest has about 505 airplanes, slightly under half are E175s, the future of the fleet. I would expect that you will see Skywest shrink to about 250-300 airframes over the next 5 years. The only question is the timing of that. The market reacted to the news that the fact that Raymond James downgraded the stock, also as a result of Skywest giving guidance that they would only break even in 2022.
Once again… raising the question, who takes over these routes? I imagine the government has to pay a pretty penny going forward - OO bid pretty low on most of these over the past few years (minus ATY/PIR). Companies like Denver Air Connection seem well suited, but I doubt they’re immune to the pilot shortage either.
MIflyer12 wrote:I don't want to take this off-topic but Alaska is unique. The royalties on oil production (diminished to less than a quarter of the 1988 peak) has meant the state could subsidize activities in very remote parts of Alaska in ways that couldn't be imagined (let alone funded) in the Lower 48. Subsidies that pay 70% of the first 500 kWh monthly for an electric bill in remote parts that use (expensive, flown-in fuel) diesel generators. Flying high school sports teams to all competitions... Some avg classroom sizes smaller than eight students.
I wonder how much states spend on Amtrak subsidies, and how much is really state money, not a pass-through of Federal grants. I don't think states are going to cough up $300 million a year to continue EAS as structured today.
32andBelow wrote:joeblow10 wrote:seatrump wrote:
Not a rumor. Skywest had their earnings call on Thursday. They are cutting 10-15% of flights in 2022 specifically due to the majors hiring so many of their Captains. They have no problem filling new hire classes currently, but when a Captain leaves it creates two training occurrences. They talk in the earnings call at length about cutting the EAS flights. They will keep the airframes (they own most of them so cost of ownership is relatively low) so they can expand again of their staffing situation changes but something fundamental will have to change for this to occur. Seach Skywest Airlines Earnings Call transcript and you can read every word from the mouths of the Skywest Execs.
Skywest has about 505 airplanes, slightly under half are E175s, the future of the fleet. I would expect that you will see Skywest shrink to about 250-300 airframes over the next 5 years. The only question is the timing of that. The market reacted to the news that the fact that Raymond James downgraded the stock, also as a result of Skywest giving guidance that they would only break even in 2022.
Once again… raising the question, who takes over these routes? I imagine the government has to pay a pretty penny going forward - OO bid pretty low on most of these over the past few years (minus ATY/PIR). Companies like Denver Air Connection seem well suited, but I doubt they’re immune to the pilot shortage either.
If’s gonna be rough. United might cherry pick some of the better ones and may even contract them back to SkyWest (LOL).
DAC can probably grow a little, but I don’t see how they are going to avoid the same fate as every other EAS 121 that has failed before them if they expand too much
FlyingElvii wrote:32andBelow wrote:joeblow10 wrote:
Once again… raising the question, who takes over these routes? I imagine the government has to pay a pretty penny going forward - OO bid pretty low on most of these over the past few years (minus ATY/PIR). Companies like Denver Air Connection seem well suited, but I doubt they’re immune to the pilot shortage either.
If’s gonna be rough. United might cherry pick some of the better ones and may even contract them back to SkyWest (LOL).
DAC can probably grow a little, but I don’t see how they are going to avoid the same fate as every other EAS 121 that has failed before them if they expand too much
I could see United giving some of the routes to Commutair.
32andBelow wrote:joeblow10 wrote:seatrump wrote:
Not a rumor. Skywest had their earnings call on Thursday. They are cutting 10-15% of flights in 2022 specifically due to the majors hiring so many of their Captains. They have no problem filling new hire classes currently, but when a Captain leaves it creates two training occurrences. They talk in the earnings call at length about cutting the EAS flights. They will keep the airframes (they own most of them so cost of ownership is relatively low) so they can expand again of their staffing situation changes but something fundamental will have to change for this to occur. Seach Skywest Airlines Earnings Call transcript and you can read every word from the mouths of the Skywest Execs.
Skywest has about 505 airplanes, slightly under half are E175s, the future of the fleet. I would expect that you will see Skywest shrink to about 250-300 airframes over the next 5 years. The only question is the timing of that. The market reacted to the news that the fact that Raymond James downgraded the stock, also as a result of Skywest giving guidance that they would only break even in 2022.
Once again… raising the question, who takes over these routes? I imagine the government has to pay a pretty penny going forward - OO bid pretty low on most of these over the past few years (minus ATY/PIR). Companies like Denver Air Connection seem well suited, but I doubt they’re immune to the pilot shortage either.
If’s gonna be rough. United might cherry pick some of the better ones and may even contract them back to SkyWest (LOL).
DAC can probably grow a little, but I don’t see how they are going to avoid the same fate as every other EAS 121 that has failed before them if they expand too much
NLINK wrote:FlyingElvii wrote:32andBelow wrote:If’s gonna be rough. United might cherry pick some of the better ones and may even contract them back to SkyWest (LOL).
DAC can probably grow a little, but I don’t see how they are going to avoid the same fate as every other EAS 121 that has failed before them if they expand too much
I could see United giving some of the routes to Commutair.
Commutair can't staff the planes either. I'm really not sure United is super concerned about 5 or 6 people a day that fly between some of these tiny cities.
seatrump wrote:toga998 wrote:Rumor has it that Skywest will be ending most of the EAS contracts when they come up for expiration. With pilot shortages I can see them wanting to focus on routes that make a profit or at least not wanting to risk something that can lose money.
Not a rumor. Skywest had their earnings call on Thursday. They are cutting 10-15% of flights in 2022 specifically due to the majors hiring so many of their Captains. They have no problem filling new hire classes currently, but when a Captain leaves it creates two training occurrences. They talk in the earnings call at length about cutting the EAS flights. They will keep the airframes (they own most of them so cost of ownership is relatively low) so they can expand again of their staffing situation changes but something fundamental will have to change for this to occur. Seach Skywest Airlines Earnings Call transcript and you can read every word from the mouths of the Skywest Execs.
Skywest has about 505 airplanes, slightly under half are E175s, the future of the fleet. I would expect that you will see Skywest shrink to about 250-300 airframes over the next 5 years. The only question is the timing of that. The market reacted to the news that the fact that Raymond James downgraded the stock, also as a result of Skywest giving guidance that they would only break even in 2022.
drdisque wrote:NLINK wrote:FlyingElvii wrote:I could see United giving some of the routes to Commutair.
Commutair can't staff the planes either. I'm really not sure United is super concerned about 5 or 6 people a day that fly between some of these tiny cities.
They wouldn't be interested in EAS that has terrible loads on the reg.
I can see UA bidding for CMX, COD, CKB, JLN, SLN, JMS, PAH.
DEC-ORD is pretty much the ideal route for a lot of the electric commuter aircraft in development.
32andBelow wrote:drdisque wrote:NLINK wrote:
Commutair can't staff the planes either. I'm really not sure United is super concerned about 5 or 6 people a day that fly between some of these tiny cities.
They wouldn't be interested in EAS that has terrible loads on the reg.
I can see UA bidding for CMX, COD, CKB, JLN, SLN, JMS, PAH.
DEC-ORD is pretty much the ideal route for a lot of the electric commuter aircraft in development.
UA might take PBG. They already have PQI
Iloveboeing wrote:I'm a bit surprised about TBN. I thought it would be a real winner for UA. The Fort Leonard Wood base is enormous and there's a lot of military personnel going in and out of there all the time. It seems that most of the Missouri commercial aviation traffic continues to revolve around MCI, STL and SGF. Places like COU and BKG aren't doing too hot at the moment. I would've thought that UA would've picked up a lot of the Army traffic.
atrude777 wrote:32andBelow wrote:joeblow10 wrote:
Once again… raising the question, who takes over these routes? I imagine the government has to pay a pretty penny going forward - OO bid pretty low on most of these over the past few years (minus ATY/PIR). Companies like Denver Air Connection seem well suited, but I doubt they’re immune to the pilot shortage either.
If’s gonna be rough. United might cherry pick some of the better ones and may even contract them back to SkyWest (LOL).
DAC can probably grow a little, but I don’t see how they are going to avoid the same fate as every other EAS 121 that has failed before them if they expand too much
IF there is a nice demand for some of the EAS routes, I could see United the airline bidding on them and sending it back to SkyWest or other regional.
Alex
oosnowrat wrote:atrude777 wrote:32andBelow wrote:If’s gonna be rough. United might cherry pick some of the better ones and may even contract them back to SkyWest (LOL).
DAC can probably grow a little, but I don’t see how they are going to avoid the same fate as every other EAS 121 that has failed before them if they expand too much
IF there is a nice demand for some of the EAS routes, I could see United the airline bidding on them and sending it back to SkyWest or other regional.
Alex
None of the regionals have extra pilots. For UA to take the EAS and send it back to a regional, they will have to pull some other regional flying that is almost certainly more profitable.
atrude777 wrote:oosnowrat wrote:atrude777 wrote:
IF there is a nice demand for some of the EAS routes, I could see United the airline bidding on them and sending it back to SkyWest or other regional.
Alex
None of the regionals have extra pilots. For UA to take the EAS and send it back to a regional, they will have to pull some other regional flying that is almost certainly more profitable.
I think all eyes will be on PQI then to see what happens going forward.
That's the only station where UA did the EAS and sourced the flying to a regional...
Going to be interesting the next few years!
Alex
FlyingElvii wrote:atrude777 wrote:oosnowrat wrote:
None of the regionals have extra pilots. For UA to take the EAS and send it back to a regional, they will have to pull some other regional flying that is almost certainly more profitable.
I think all eyes will be on PQI then to see what happens going forward.
That's the only station where UA did the EAS and sourced the flying to a regional...
Going to be interesting the next few years!
Alex
What important Senator and Transportation Committee member lives near PQI that United would love to buy favor with?
Susan Collins. She lives in nearby Caribou.
It wouldn’t be the first time that United has run a flight to curry favor in Congress, in recent years.
FlyingElvii wrote:atrude777 wrote:oosnowrat wrote:
None of the regionals have extra pilots. For UA to take the EAS and send it back to a regional, they will have to pull some other regional flying that is almost certainly more profitable.
I think all eyes will be on PQI then to see what happens going forward.
That's the only station where UA did the EAS and sourced the flying to a regional...
Going to be interesting the next few years!
Alex
What important Senator and Transportation Committee member lives near PQI that United would love to buy favor with?
Susan Collins. She lives in nearby Caribou.
It wouldn’t be the first time that United has run a flight to curry favor in Congress, in recent years.
