United States Essential Air Service (EAS) Thread

atrude777 · Wed Aug 10, 2022 9:54 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
CGI says they expect Contour to come around Nov 1.
https://www.semissourian.com/story/2960251.html

I do wish Contour and CGI the best of luck! Will be interested if the demand for BNA stays the same as ORD.

CGI's Pax Load plummeted in July due to the flights going to tag flights. In addition in another article, the runway will have to be closed for a couple of weeks in October.

Source: https://www.semissourian.com/story/2960253.html

Also at the meeting, Amos relayed statistics for enplanements at the airport. Cape Girardeau has recorded 6,397 boardings in the first seven months of 2022, more than 2,000 ahead of the 2021 pace. In the month of July alone, however, enplanements are down 31% compared to last year.

The improvements will force the closure of the airport's longest runway for 10 days. This will ground commercial travel in that window because the jets are unable to use the shorter runway. The closure is scheduled for Oct. 3 to 13 but Amos said that could change. She has been in constant communication with airlines to update them on a possible alteration of the timeline.

BangersAndMash wrote:
A proposal has been filed for Pueblo. It's Southern Airways Express.

2 options, both on the King Air 200, either 24x weekly or 30x weekly to DEN.

Doesn't look like Skywest is going to bite. I guess that Part 135 operation is still a pipe dream then.

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-1999-6589-0157

SkyWest cannot bid as Part 135 through the Charters because DOT still hasn't approved it. That's why there is no bid from SkyWest.

Did Pueblo do a REBID or did no one else just bid back then?

Alex

joeblow10 · Thu Aug 11, 2022 1:32 am

BangersAndMash wrote:
More trouble for OO.

They got themselves a recommendation at Laramie, but it's hardly a ringing endorsement. Once again, they're taking heavy criticism for failing to perform according to their contractual obligations by tagging flights without consent.

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-1997-2958-0114

Calling that a recommendation of any measure is quite a stretch. I wonder how much longer until we get an answer on the 135/380 proposal… it’s already moving fast for the government but that’s going to drastically impact service at these communities

BangersAndMash · Thu Aug 11, 2022 7:51 am

atrude777 wrote:
BangersAndMash wrote:
A proposal has been filed for Pueblo. It's Southern Airways Express.

2 options, both on the King Air 200, either 24x weekly or 30x weekly to DEN.

Doesn't look like Skywest is going to bite. I guess that Part 135 operation is still a pipe dream then.

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-1999-6589-0157

SkyWest cannot bid as Part 135 through the Charters because DOT still hasn't approved it. That's why there is no bid from SkyWest.

Did Pueblo do a REBID or did no one else just bid back then?

Alex

Pueblo's contract is due for renewal on Nov. 1 under the normal cycle. DOT had to reopen the bidding. Like many others, they chose to stick with OO, with the Part 135 carrot dangled in front of them, in the round earlier this year.

BangersAndMash · Thu Aug 11, 2022 8:01 am

joeblow10 wrote:
BangersAndMash wrote:
More trouble for OO.

They got themselves a recommendation at Laramie, but it's hardly a ringing endorsement. Once again, they're taking heavy criticism for failing to perform according to their contractual obligations by tagging flights without consent.

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-1997-2958-0114

Calling that a recommendation of any measure is quite a stretch. I wonder how much longer until we get an answer on the 135/380 proposal… it’s already moving fast for the government but that’s going to drastically impact service at these communities

Well they are the "preferred" carrier.

Service at these communities is already down the toilet.

Laramie is down from 2x daily, as contracted, to 1x daily. As indicated in the comments letter, most of these now get tagged with Scottsbluff, which is completely out of the way. It's nearly faster for people to just drive to DEN. And the tagging also increases the risk of breakdowns and cancellations.

Repeat that across multiple other markets. For most, this means about a 75% reduction in available seat capacity.

atrude777 · Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:40 pm

DOT approves Altoona's AEAS Proposal.

Backstory: Boutique Applied for Altoona. Altoona said No. Filed for AEAS with communication with Contour.

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DO ... 11446-0300

DOT also approves Denver Air Connection for Kearney, Nebraska to Denver (12 Weekly) beginning November 1st.

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DO ... -0052-0090

Alex

N292UX · Fri Aug 12, 2022 4:03 pm

Will be interesting to see how the EAS landscape changes when/if UA takes delivery of those electric 19 seat ES-19s a few years from now. They only have a range of ~250 miles but if you’re UA, there’s probably dozens of EAS routes within that range of ORD/IAD/DEN. Suspect they may try some other routes with it also but given those are intended to replace 50 seaters, it wouldn’t be surprising if UA gets back in the EAS battles in some regions.

Though if Contour continues to get more E-135/145s, UA may be fighting a losing battle. They may be the EAS kings pretty soon here - and heck I wouldn’t be surprised if they added some more p2p routes also

32andBelow · Fri Aug 12, 2022 6:23 pm

N292UX wrote:
Will be interesting to see how the EAS landscape changes when/if UA takes delivery of those electric 19 seat ES-19s a few years from now. They only have a range of ~250 miles but if you’re UA, there’s probably dozens of EAS routes within that range of ORD/IAD/DEN. Suspect they may try some other routes with it also but given those are intended to replace 50 seaters, it wouldn’t be surprising if UA gets back in the EAS battles in some regions.

Though if Contour continues to get more E-135/145s, UA may be fighting a losing battle. They may be the EAS kings pretty soon here - and heck I wouldn’t be surprised if they added some more p2p routes also

there will probably be new subsidy programs in the future if planes like this actually start operating

BangersAndMash · Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:39 pm

Bradford has recommended incumbent Southern Airways Express for another term.

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-2003-14528-0198

BangersAndMash · Thu Aug 18, 2022 8:23 pm

The contract for Alpena is out. It stays with OO as Delta Connection for 2 more years ... maybe. No change to destination, aircraft, or frequency.

https://www.regulations.gov/docket/DOT-OST-2009-0300/document?postedDateFrom=2022-08-18&postedDateTo=2022-08-18

910A · Fri Aug 19, 2022 2:10 am

The only reason why MQT isn't an EAS station is that two airlines operate there. American Eagle has a maintenance base there hence the one flight to ORD. Prior to the pilot storage DL operated two fights to DTW, and one to MSP. This was the only airport in the UP to serve all three midwest hubs. Now it's soon to be one flight to ORD and DTW.

Velocirapture · Fri Aug 19, 2022 6:32 am

sprxUSA wrote:
Ah the old 'King Air' proposal LOL. Guess PUB is lucky to have anything there these days. Can't imagine it when TWA, America West and Rocky Mtn were there simultaneously (late 1988). Must have seemed busy....

I remember TWA and Rocky Mountain in PUB, but I don't remember HP/America West. Can you recall what years that was?

TWA flew to COS then STL, IIRC. Rocky flew to DEN, though I seem to recall a tag with ALS, too.

AVLAirlineFreq · Fri Aug 19, 2022 12:47 pm

Velocirapture wrote:
sprxUSA wrote:
Ah the old 'King Air' proposal LOL. Guess PUB is lucky to have anything there these days. Can't imagine it when TWA, America West and Rocky Mtn were there simultaneously (late 1988). Must have seemed busy....

I remember TWA and Rocky Mountain in PUB, but I don't remember HP/America West. Can you recall what years that was?

1985 to 1991.

BangersAndMash · Mon Aug 22, 2022 8:44 pm

The contract for Muskegon is out.

Southern Airways Express, 36x weekly to ORD, on Cessna 208, starts October 1. 4-year contract.

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-2009-0301-0058

SLCaviation · Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:03 pm

What are the EAS markets that serve SLC? I don’t think there are many left…

ytib · Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:51 pm

SLCaviation wrote:
What are the EAS markets that serve SLC? I don’t think there are many left…

Looks like:

West Yellowstone
Moab
Butte
Cedar City

https://www.transportation.gov/Subsidiz ... PR_Jun2022

Chuska · Tue Aug 23, 2022 12:38 am

Velocirapture wrote:
sprxUSA wrote:
Ah the old 'King Air' proposal LOL. Guess PUB is lucky to have anything there these days. Can't imagine it when TWA, America West and Rocky Mtn were there simultaneously (late 1988). Must have seemed busy....

I remember TWA and Rocky Mountain in PUB, but I don't remember HP/America West. Can you recall what years that was?

TWA flew to COS then STL, IIRC. Rocky flew to DEN, though I seem to recall a tag with ALS, too.

November, 1990 was big time for PUB; FOUR airlines with a combined total of 16 flights per day:
TW--2 COS/STL 727,72S
HP--1 PHX, 2 COS/PHX 733
JC/CO*--6 DEN BE1, ATR
YV/UA*--5 DEN, BE1.

slcguy · Tue Aug 23, 2022 8:11 am

Velocirapture wrote:
sprxUSA wrote:
Ah the old 'King Air' proposal LOL. Guess PUB is lucky to have anything there these days. Can't imagine it when TWA, America West and Rocky Mtn were there simultaneously (late 1988). Must have seemed busy....

I remember TWA and Rocky Mountain in PUB, but I don't remember HP/America West. Can you recall what years that was?

TWA flew to COS then STL, IIRC. Rocky flew to DEN, though I seem to recall a tag with ALS, too.

Just a blast from the past circa 1964. A round trip milk run SAF-ALS-PUB-COS-DEN on an original Frontier DC-3. Got to go into the cockpit inflight on the return trip. exciting stuff for am 8 year old.! A different time lol.

WA707atMSP · Wed Aug 24, 2022 4:46 pm

Has Delta shown any interest in establishing an interline agreement with Denver Air Connection?

TVF and IWD are already served from MSP, PIR and ATY have stronger ties to Minneapolis than they do to Chicago or Denver, and some of the other cities Skywest has requested to discontinue (JMS and DVL come to mind immediately, and there are others) are within Minneapolis' traditional catchment area.

Also, the current regional concourses at MSP are severely under utilized, so if DAC were to add more flights to MSP, to feed DL's hub, they could be easily accommodated.

To me, it seems silly that DL hasn't partnered with DAC.....

mesasurf · Wed Aug 24, 2022 5:49 pm

ytib wrote:
SLCaviation wrote:
What are the EAS markets that serve SLC? I don’t think there are many left…

Looks like:

West Yellowstone
Moab
Butte
Cedar City

https://www.transportation.gov/Subsidiz ... PR_Jun2022

West Yellowstone and Moab seem to cater towards more tourism passengers than local.

BangersAndMash · Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:37 pm

The new contract for Laramie has been filed.

Stays with OO flying as United Express. 12x weekly to DEN with CRJ200s (unchanged). 2-year contract.

Let's see if they can manage 12x weekly non-stop. The likelihood of that is slim.

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-1997-2958-0115

atrude777 · Sat Aug 27, 2022 5:59 pm

Hattiesburg will be staying with SkyWest Airlines.

Source: https://www.wdam.com/2022/08/25/skywest ... l-airport/

PINE BELT, Miss. (WDAM) - The Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport has been served by SkyWest Airlines for the past eight years.

Hattiesburg-Laurel Executive Director Tom Heanue said Thursday he expects that relationship to continue “for the foreseeable future.”

SkyWest Airlines, operating as United Express, serves the Pine Belt with twice-daily flights to Houston.

“We anticipate the service to Houston to remain for the foreseeable future,” Heanue said.

Hattiesburg received bids from Southern, Contour, and Boutique.

Contour: Service to BNA
Southern: Service to ATL
Boutique: Service to MSY

Alex

Chuska · Sat Aug 27, 2022 11:07 pm

atrude777 wrote:
Hattiesburg will be staying with SkyWest Airlines.

Source: https://www.wdam.com/2022/08/25/skywest ... l-airport/

PINE BELT, Miss. (WDAM) - The Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport has been served by SkyWest Airlines for the past eight years.

Hattiesburg-Laurel Executive Director Tom Heanue said Thursday he expects that relationship to continue “for the foreseeable future.”

SkyWest Airlines, operating as United Express, serves the Pine Belt with twice-daily flights to Houston.

“We anticipate the service to Houston to remain for the foreseeable future,” Heanue said.

Hattiesburg received bids from Southern, Contour, and Boutique.

Contour: Service to BNA
Southern: Service to ATL
Boutique: Service to MSY

Alex

I would think that Meridian would also be included as the OO flights both operate IAH-PIB-MEI-IAH. MEI did so well back in its day with both Delta and Southern flying DC-9's there.

atrude777 · Tue Aug 30, 2022 6:37 pm

DOT has approved Contour Airlines for two Stations so far.

Paducah, Kentucky-PAH

DOT Source: https://www.regulations.gov/document/DO ... 15553-0195

Website: https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/news/us-depa ... e77f7.html

12 Weekly Flights to CLT-Charlotte, NC for 3 Year Term.

Greenbier/Lewisburg, VA-LWB

DOT Source: https://downloads.regulations.gov/DOT-O ... ment_1.pdf

12 Weekly Flights to CLT-Charlotte, NC for 3 Year Term.

Alex

atrude777 · Wed Aug 31, 2022 5:26 pm

DOT has now also approved Contour Airlines for EAS Service to replace SkyWest at Staunton, VA-SHD.

Contour will begin November 1st, for a 3 Year Contract with 12 Weekly Flights to CLT.

DOT: https://downloads.regulations.gov/DOT-O ... ment_1.pdf

Alex

Chuska · Thu Sep 01, 2022 2:04 am

atrude777 wrote:
DOT has now also approved Contour Airlines for EAS Service to replace SkyWest at Staunton, VA-SHD.

Contour will begin November 1st, for a 3 Year Contract with 12 Weekly Flights to CLT.

DOT: https://downloads.regulations.gov/DOT-O ... ment_1.pdf

Alex

That makes 10 of the 31 OO EAS cities now covered if my math is right. Or, I should say, 28 cities now as OO will stay in JST, PIB, and SLN?

ALS to KG
EAU to SY
EAR to KG
LWB to LF
MKG to 9X
OGS to LF
PAH to LF
PBG to LF
PUB to 9X
SHD to LF

atrude777 · Thu Sep 01, 2022 3:04 am

atrude777 wrote:
Hattiesburg will be staying with SkyWest Airlines.

Source: https://www.wdam.com/2022/08/25/skywest ... l-airport/

PINE BELT, Miss. (WDAM) - The Hattiesburg-Laurel Regional Airport has been served by SkyWest Airlines for the past eight years.

Hattiesburg-Laurel Executive Director Tom Heanue said Thursday he expects that relationship to continue “for the foreseeable future.”

SkyWest Airlines, operating as United Express, serves the Pine Belt with twice-daily flights to Houston.

“We anticipate the service to Houston to remain for the foreseeable future,” Heanue said.

Hattiesburg received bids from Southern, Contour, and Boutique.

Contour: Service to BNA
Southern: Service to ATL
Boutique: Service to MSY

Alex

A follow up to the SkyWest decision regarding Hattiesburg.

Source: https://www.wdam.com/2022/08/31/skywest ... rvice-pib/

Of Interest is this wording from the article, unless something changed, they are lead to believe that this new SkyWest Charter would continue to have United Express..I don't believe they will?

“Pilots don’t have to have so many hours, the seat configuration changes, and there’s other rules in there, too. It’s a little more lenient, which allows SkyWest to want to stay with us and work with us.”

SkyWest’s decision is good news for airport administrators and air travelers.

“Unless something unforeseeable happens, just total lack of pilots or there’s some other type of disaster that occurs in our country that stops flying, we should be seeing SkyWest flying as United (Airlines) to Houston, two flights a day,” Heanue said.

**************************************************************************************************************************************************

Pueblo, CO--

SkyWest has decided NOT to submit proposal for SkyWest Charter, and PUB will now be deciding to either keep or deny Southern Airways.

Source: https://krdo.com/news/top-stories/2022/ ... l-airport/

According to The Pueblo Chieftain, SkyWest announced plans in March to pull daily flights from Pueblo and 28 other small communities due to a pilot shortage. Initially, SkyWest officials said they hoped to come up with a creative way to fulfill the federally mandated Essential Air Service flights obligation.

However, SkyWest officials told have decided against putting in another proposal.

Alex

BangersAndMash · Thu Sep 01, 2022 9:12 pm

The contract for Fort Leonard Wood is out.

Start date will be October 1. Otherwise similar to the other recent Contour awards, including the fact it's EAS with a waiver rather than AEAS.

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-1996-1167-0170

BangersAndMash · Fri Sep 02, 2022 6:15 pm

The contract for Clarksburg is out.

Start date is November 1, for 3 years, with service to CLT. Same as the other recent awards (EAS with a waiver rather than AEAS, 12x weekly with ERJ135).

https://www.regulations.gov/document/DOT-OST-2005-20736-0184

Jshank83 · Tue Sep 06, 2022 1:52 pm

Apparently TBN is getting a split BNA/DFW. I thought it was going to be 2x BNA. Getting the DFW frequency is a pretty big upgrade connection wise

SyracuseAvGeek · Tue Sep 06, 2022 2:03 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
Apparently TBN is getting a split BNA/DFW. I thought it was going to be 2x BNA. Getting the DFW frequency is a pretty big upgrade connection wise

That’s weird, the EAS contract only says BNA. Do you have a link to an article mentioning DFW as well?

Jshank83 · Tue Sep 06, 2022 3:09 pm

SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Apparently TBN is getting a split BNA/DFW. I thought it was going to be 2x BNA. Getting the DFW frequency is a pretty big upgrade connection wise

That’s weird, the EAS contract only says BNA. Do you have a link to an article mentioning DFW as well?

It is bookable on Contour's site.

atrude777 · Tue Sep 06, 2022 3:39 pm

DOT has awarded CGI, Contour Airlines to take over SkyWest Airlines beginning October 1st.

DOT: https://downloads.regulations.gov/DOT-O ... ment_1.pdf

By this Order, the U.S. Department of Transportation (Department) (1) grants the community of
Cape Girardeau, Missouri, a waiver from the requirement in 49 U.S.C. § 41732(a) that basic
Essential Air Service (EAS) is scheduled air transportation, and (2) selects Corporate Flight
Management, Inc. d/b/a Contour Airlines (Contour) to provide EAS, as public charter flights in
accordance with 14 CFR Part 380, at Cape Girardeau, Missouri, for the three-year contract term
from October 1, 2022, through September 30, 2025.

The contract is for 12 Weekly to Nashville, TN (BNA)

Alex

pitintl · Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:10 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
SyracuseAvGeek wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
Apparently TBN is getting a split BNA/DFW. I thought it was going to be 2x BNA. Getting the DFW frequency is a pretty big upgrade connection wise

That’s weird, the EAS contract only says BNA. Do you have a link to an article mentioning DFW as well?

It is bookable on Contour's site.

5x Weekly to BNA and Daily to DFW from TBN - the schedule is out there and published as well.

Jshank83 · Tue Sep 06, 2022 4:19 pm

pitintl wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:
SyracuseAvGeek wrote:

That’s weird, the EAS contract only says BNA. Do you have a link to an article mentioning DFW as well?

It is bookable on Contour's site.

5x Weekly to BNA and Daily to DFW from TBN - the schedule is out there and published as well.

I'll be curious if that moves over to all DFW in the future.

pitintl · Tue Sep 06, 2022 5:43 pm

With AOO going to LF in November, Boutique (4B) is left with only Carlsbad, Massena, and Pendleton. How long do you think service to these communities will last? I would think MSS would be another candidate for LF service to PHL.

usxguy · Tue Sep 06, 2022 6:20 pm

Boutique just filed for termination at MSS

BangersAndMash · Tue Sep 06, 2022 6:37 pm

pitintl wrote:
With AOO going to LF in November, Boutique (4B) is left with only Carlsbad, Massena, and Pendleton. How long do you think service to these communities will last? I would think MSS would be another candidate for LF service to PHL.

MSS doesn't support jets. OO tried to bid before but pulled out for that reason. So it'll be Cape Air or Southern Airways Express most likely.

BangersAndMash · Tue Sep 06, 2022 6:41 pm

Jshank83 wrote:
pitintl wrote:
Jshank83 wrote:

It is bookable on Contour's site.

5x Weekly to BNA and Daily to DFW from TBN - the schedule is out there and published as well.

I'll be curious if that moves over to all DFW in the future.

That's strange. Only BNA was mentioned in the contract that's just been published. And it's EAS with a waiver, not AEAS so any change must be approved by DOT. Have they asked for a variation to the contract already?

pitintl · Tue Sep 06, 2022 6:46 pm

BangersAndMash wrote:
pitintl wrote:
With AOO going to LF in November, Boutique (4B) is left with only Carlsbad, Massena, and Pendleton. How long do you think service to these communities will last? I would think MSS would be another candidate for LF service to PHL.

MSS doesn't support jets. OO tried to bid before but pulled out for that reason. So it'll be Cape Air or Southern Airways Express most likely.

My money would be on 9K to return to the market with service to BOS. 9X would be the same, but I don't think MSS will be getting BWI/IAD service anytime soon again. That's a long way on a Caravan.

BangersAndMash · Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:03 pm

pitintl wrote:
BangersAndMash wrote:
pitintl wrote:
With AOO going to LF in November, Boutique (4B) is left with only Carlsbad, Massena, and Pendleton. How long do you think service to these communities will last? I would think MSS would be another candidate for LF service to PHL.

MSS doesn't support jets. OO tried to bid before but pulled out for that reason. So it'll be Cape Air or Southern Airways Express most likely.

My money would be on 9K to return to the market with service to BOS. 9X would be the same, but I don't think MSS will be getting BWI/IAD service anytime soon again. That's a long way on a Caravan.

In normal circumstances, I'd agree with you, but they seem to be badly affected by the pilot shortage, 9K more so then 9X. Could be an easy pick up for Southern. If they are interested. If not, MSS could easily be stuck in limbo with no carrier and potentially even loose EAS status.

BangersAndMash · Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:05 pm

The bidding has reopened at Houghton (normal contract expiring Jan. 31). If OO doesn't get that charter operation off the ground soon, this could get ugly.

BangersAndMash · Tue Sep 06, 2022 8:25 pm

BangersAndMash wrote:
The bidding has reopened at Houghton (normal contract expiring Jan. 31). If OO doesn't get that charter operation off the ground soon, this could get ugly.

Ditto for Dodge City and Liberal.

Expecting Scottsbluff and North Platte to follow in short order.

bval · Tue Sep 06, 2022 9:04 pm

BangersAndMash wrote:
pitintl wrote:
With AOO going to LF in November, Boutique (4B) is left with only Carlsbad, Massena, and Pendleton. How long do you think service to these communities will last? I would think MSS would be another candidate for LF service to PHL.

MSS doesn't support jets. OO tried to bid before but pulled out for that reason. So it'll be Cape Air or Southern Airways Express most likely.

Doesn't support jets as in there's no Jet-A for sale on the field, or doesn't support jets as in the runway is too short? 5/23 looks to be 5600ft which should be doable for an ERJ135 or CRJ200 limited to 30 seats and without taking full fuel (probably not going to fly anywhere further away than PHL). It helps the airport is neither hot nor high.

Contour go into PGA which is a 5950ft runway and hot, and CEC at 5002ft. Even the recent AOO award is shorter at 5465ft.

I think they can and will bid on MSS. With a base at PHL I expect them to pick up as many EAS contracts in the Northeast as possible to maximize their investment, and increase utilization.

If 9K is really in trouble, I hope they'll be into SLK too with a 6573ft runway to work with.

FlyingElvii · Tue Sep 06, 2022 9:28 pm

There are more profitable cities than MSS coming up for renewal soon.

Both GLH and TBN will have Dallas trips. IMO, Paducah may get one as well, there seems to be a schedule hole that could fit in to as an originator?

joeblow10 · Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:09 pm

BangersAndMash wrote:
The bidding has reopened at Houghton (normal contract expiring Jan. 31). If OO doesn't get that charter operation off the ground soon, this could get ugly.

The latest from the OO charter docket was a DOT request for more info on management/company structure which sounded pretty routine. They had 30 days to respond from September 1st. My honest guess is that approval/disapproval won’t be out until end of October frame at the earliest

BangersAndMash · Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:28 pm

bval wrote:
BangersAndMash wrote:
pitintl wrote:
With AOO going to LF in November, Boutique (4B) is left with only Carlsbad, Massena, and Pendleton. How long do you think service to these communities will last? I would think MSS would be another candidate for LF service to PHL.

MSS doesn't support jets. OO tried to bid before but pulled out for that reason. So it'll be Cape Air or Southern Airways Express most likely.

Doesn't support jets as in there's no Jet-A for sale on the field, or doesn't support jets as in the runway is too short? 5/23 looks to be 5600ft which should be doable for an ERJ135 or CRJ200 limited to 30 seats and without taking full fuel (probably not going to fly anywhere further away than PHL). It helps the airport is neither hot nor high.

Contour go into PGA which is a 5950ft runway and hot, and CEC at 5002ft. Even the recent AOO award is shorter at 5465ft.

I think they can and will bid on MSS. With a base at PHL I expect them to pick up as many EAS contracts in the Northeast as possible to maximize their investment, and increase utilization.

If 9K is really in trouble, I hope they'll be into SLK too with a 6573ft runway to work with.

I don't think it's just a length issue. When OO bid for MSS back in 2019, the reason given for the withdrawal was that jet aircraft did not meet minimum federal operating requirements to fly into MSS due to the state of the runway. There was no budget or timeline to fix the problem.

MO11 · Tue Sep 06, 2022 11:43 pm

bval wrote:
BangersAndMash wrote:
MSS doesn't support jets. OO tried to bid before but pulled out for that reason. So it'll be Cape Air or Southern Airways Express most likely.

Doesn't support jets as in there's no Jet-A for sale on the field, or doesn't support jets as in the runway is too short?

No that wasn't it. MSS is a Class II airport, so no scheduled operations with airplanes with more than 30 seats. A 14 CFR 380 operation is not considered a scheduled operation, and use 30-seat airplanes, so it's good.

pitintl wrote:
My money would be on 9K to return to the market with service to BOS. 9X would be the same, but I don't think MSS will be getting BWI/IAD service anytime soon again. That's a long way on a Caravan.

9X could bid with the PC-12.

Chuska · Wed Sep 07, 2022 3:24 am

pitintl wrote:
With AOO going to LF in November, Boutique (4B) is left with only Carlsbad, Massena, and Pendleton. How long do you think service to these communities will last? I would think MSS would be another candidate for LF service to PHL.

PDT just renewed with Boutique for two more years and CNM has a four year contract which still has three years to go. I could see Southern buying out Boutique like they did with Air Choice One.

BangersAndMash · Wed Sep 07, 2022 10:37 am

Chuska wrote:
pitintl wrote:
With AOO going to LF in November, Boutique (4B) is left with only Carlsbad, Massena, and Pendleton. How long do you think service to these communities will last? I would think MSS would be another candidate for LF service to PHL.

PDT just renewed with Boutique for two more years and CNM has a four year contract which still has three years to go. I could see Southern buying out Boutique like they did with Air Choice One.

Boutique has been notoriously bad at budgeting. They filed early termination notices on a number of their contracts recently (MKL, SOW, AOO; PDT itself had to be rebid early). Now you'd think they baked that in at PDT considering this was renewed earlier this year. But CNM could be vulnerable. Might not make it to 4 years. And CNM will attract interest from other carriers, you can bet on that. It's ripe for jet service. Their saving grace is that they seem to be well liked at both PDT and CNM.

pitintl · Wed Sep 07, 2022 1:18 pm

MO11 wrote:

pitintl wrote:
My money would be on 9K to return to the market with service to BOS. 9X would be the same, but I don't think MSS will be getting BWI/IAD service anytime soon again. That's a long way on a Caravan.

9X could bid with the PC-12.

Their PC-12 ops are only in Arizona at the current moment with service to SOW. I honestly think it would be 12x weekly service to BOS, which should more than suffice the rules for EAS in a market like MSS. Looking at T100 data, the traffic for BOS far outweighs BWI from MSS by a large margin.

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