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Sydscott
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Mon Feb 21, 2022 10:12 pm

Polot wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

The last thing the replacement of the A330 fleet at Qantas needs, is more range. I would also doubt that Qantas would be looking for a bigger frame. So a replacement by 787 would rather lead to the 787-8.

The A330 fly the routes they fly today because that is all they have range for. The fleet exists because of decisions QF first made all the way back in 1999. That’s not evidence that QF may not be interested in slightly more range in a A330 replacement, or a slightly larger plane to help fill the gap between the 789 and eventual A35Js. Previously if they wanted to fill gap between A333 and 744 they would have needed to buy a whole new type. Now they options (787-10 and A359) that are variants of planes they already operate or plan on one day operating.

QF operates plenty of long haul routes that are not ULH, and it is an area they are interested in growing since they were traditionally so weak in it (that’s why they were super excited about the 787 in the first place-enough range for North America and great size to use within Asia as well increasing flexibility).


That's also why they have a whole lot of XLR A321NEO's on order as well for both mainline and Jetstar. That's where they are going "large" on their future so it'll be interesting to see what they feel they need for widebody service into Asia because their fleet plan is tending to indicate potentially less widebodies being required.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:17 am

mjoelnir wrote:
TravelQ wrote:
evanb wrote:

Going back to this comment, I think some people might misinterpret this. Just a reminder that QF already had the A330 in the fleet before they ever ordered the B787. The first A330 was delivered in 2002, a full three years before they ordered the B787. And yes, the original B787 order was for 45 firm orders, 20 options and purchase rights for another 50 (https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna10463472). The A330s were expected to operate alongside the B787 for quite some time and wasn't a temporary solution. The B787s 45 firm orders were slated to replace the bulk of the B744 fleet and go to Jetstar. But yes, the delays in the B787s resulted in them taking more A330s. I think you can add A380 issues to the mix here (the original order was for 20, and they only took 12). I think you're correct in that it was about 10 or 11 more A330s.

I would agree that one of Joyce's strengths is his willingness to be flexible. A lot of people are slow to adapt to changing conditions since the fear that this will be seen as an admission of error rather than just things changing. Not only did the B787 delays affect this, but the A330 has also became and has shown to be a far more capable aircraft over time. Performance improvement packages, increases in MTOW, its reliability, Airbus's ability to deliver on time, with almost no quality issues, all while keeping prices reasonable. I think the proof is in the pudding (so to speak) that they chose to bring a neo model to market to sell alongside the A350. That the core of the aircraft, designed in the late 80s, is still competitive is remarkable!


I don't think any of us have enough inside information or knowledge of the 787 and A330 to make any reasonable conclusions on what is best for QF.

On the same point, I suspect the 787 family of aircraft would be the more flexible option for fleet planning and crystal balling into the future.

We don't have any knowledge of the planned upgrades to the 787 family other than the 787-10 is somehow going to garner and extra ~1000nm of range. When you think about it, this is a 'jaw dropping' and 'body trembling' number. I suspect the reported high gross weight 787-10 is a step gain again over the 787-10 originally proposed to Air New Zealand.

I'm not saying more 787's are a definite for QF. I'm saying the 787 should represent a very strong option as being an aircraft for a large part of their international fleet.

As always, time will tell!


The last thing the replacement of the A330 fleet at Qantas needs, is more range. I would also doubt that Qantas would be looking for a bigger frame. So a replacement by 787 would rather lead to the 787-8.

As the situation is now, Qantas decided on the A350 for ULH. Curtailing the use of the 787 on long international flights.


QF pre covid certainly at least could have used several more 789s, now they will run A332s with an MTOW boost on BNE-LAX as the 789s are needed elsewhere, the A332 can do it but wouldn’t be the first choice on that route, other than they don’t have enough aircraft like the 789 with trans pacific range. The 788 has similar operating costs to a 789, I can’t see QF ordering 788s but I do think they will take the JQ 788 fleet back, they tried to sell some 788s pre covid with no takers.
 
Kent350787
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:15 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
TravelQ wrote:

I don't think any of us have enough inside information or knowledge of the 787 and A330 to make any reasonable conclusions on what is best for QF.

On the same point, I suspect the 787 family of aircraft would be the more flexible option for fleet planning and crystal balling into the future.

We don't have any knowledge of the planned upgrades to the 787 family other than the 787-10 is somehow going to garner and extra ~1000nm of range. When you think about it, this is a 'jaw dropping' and 'body trembling' number. I suspect the reported high gross weight 787-10 is a step gain again over the 787-10 originally proposed to Air New Zealand.

I'm not saying more 787's are a definite for QF. I'm saying the 787 should represent a very strong option as being an aircraft for a large part of their international fleet.

As always, time will tell!


The last thing the replacement of the A330 fleet at Qantas needs, is more range. I would also doubt that Qantas would be looking for a bigger frame. So a replacement by 787 would rather lead to the 787-8.

As the situation is now, Qantas decided on the A350 for ULH. Curtailing the use of the 787 on long international flights.


QF pre covid certainly at least could have used several more 789s, now they will run A332s with an MTOW boost on BNE-LAX as the 789s are needed elsewhere, the A332 can do it but wouldn’t be the first choice on that route, other than they don’t have enough aircraft like the 789 with trans pacific range. The 788 has similar operating costs to a 789, I can’t see QF ordering 788s but I do think they will take the JQ 788 fleet back, they tried to sell some 788s pre covid with no takers.


I suspect you're right on the JetStar 788s, and I cannot see QF ordering more 788s. QF has never stayed with the smallest model of a type with subsequent purchases - 747 (excluding the SP), 767, A330 have always gone to a larger model.
 
evanb
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 6:16 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
QF pre covid certainly at least could have used several more 789s, now they will run A332s with an MTOW boost on BNE-LAX as the 789s are needed elsewhere, the A332 can do it but wouldn’t be the first choice on that route, other than they don’t have enough aircraft like the 789 with trans pacific range. The 788 has similar operating costs to a 789, I can’t see QF ordering 788s but I do think they will take the JQ 788 fleet back, they tried to sell some 788s pre covid with no takers.


Pre-COVID, they had 12x A380s and 6x B747-400ERs in service. The A380s are coming out of long term storage and the B747-400ERs had their retirements accelerated. Flying the A332s on BNE-LAX is simply a temporary solution to cover for this. Once the A380s (not even all of them) are back in service, the A332s will return to normal service.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 7:28 am

evanb wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
QF pre covid certainly at least could have used several more 789s, now they will run A332s with an MTOW boost on BNE-LAX as the 789s are needed elsewhere, the A332 can do it but wouldn’t be the first choice on that route, other than they don’t have enough aircraft like the 789 with trans pacific range. The 788 has similar operating costs to a 789, I can’t see QF ordering 788s but I do think they will take the JQ 788 fleet back, they tried to sell some 788s pre covid with no takers.


Pre-COVID, they had 12x A380s and 6x B747-400ERs in service. The A380s are coming out of long term storage and the B747-400ERs had their retirements accelerated. Flying the A332s on BNE-LAX is simply a temporary solution to cover for this. Once the A380s (not even all of them) are back in service, the A332s will return to normal service.


Sure, the 6 744s were on the way out anyway and they had 3 789s left to come, Covid has changed the network somewhat. I’m not hugely sure myself the 789s will be back on routes like BNE-LAX to soon given the lack of them and currently no more on order bar the 3 undelivered thus far. They have gone to the effort to get an MTOW bump on some of the younger ones, 8 I think?
 
EBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 7:59 am

All of the posts suggesting that QF take on the JQ 788s have some merit. Back around the mid-2000s the thinking was that JQ would upgrade to 789s, pass the 788s back to Qantas that would keep them in their dense config (335 seats) and then run them on the transcon and some international routes, effectively the core ops of the A332 fleet which would then be phased out. Simple reason was that the 789s offered similar economics to the 788 but with lots more revenue potential, and the legs to reach Europe with one stop, or even west coast USA.

That may be a live option again. JQ is now more geared towards opreating A321neos/LRs/XLRs on longhaul routes, and they did try to offload five of them a couple of years ago with no success. The pandemic may still change that thinking, but I would be surprised if the 788s wear JQ colours for much longer. Ideally, QF may want to send them back to Boeing as a trade in on factory-fresh 789s, and then split the fleet with two configurations - ULH focused with the current 237 seat config, and a more dense but still premium layout for the Asian routes with the odd transcon when they need to carry some extra freight, as the A321s will handle most of those flights.

As always, QF (especially under Joyce) are going to keep their options open and seek maximum flexibility. The A332/3s have life left in them, especially since they had cabin upgrades fairly recently, and none of QF's competitors are going to be investing heavily in revolutionary hard product that they will try to match (especially VA). They're also fairly depreciated so have low ownership costs, but compared to a 787 would be more expensive to operate, and are less flexible in terms of where they are deployed. The first couple heading for conversion is a sign that freighters are where they will live out their autumn years, but even then I believe it will only be a small fleet.
 
AdvancedBikkie
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 10:11 am

mjoelnir wrote:
The A330ceo could be replaced by A330neo. No reason to go to the expense of replacing them with expensive 787.


The 787 is not expensive. The A338's list is about $260m, compared to the $248m for the 788. Now, this is list price, but they don't even need to buy 788s - JQ already has them.

Not to mention, it's an airliner with groundbreaking efficiency and technology. It's cheaper to operate than the A330neo.
 
Flyingsottsman
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 10:23 am

I thought Qantas was offered the 330 as a sweetener from Airbus because the A380 was delayed, ands that why the 744ER's stayed around to, did Qantas originally want, or had plans to operate the A330?
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 10:34 am

Flyingsottsman wrote:
I thought Qantas was offered the 330 as a sweetener from Airbus because the A380 was delayed, ands that why the 744ER's stayed around to, did Qantas originally want, or had plans to operate the A330?


QF ordered A380s, Airbus gave some well priced A330s as a sweetener, they ordered the 744ER the same day. The A330s have been around since 2002, original order was 7 A332 6 A333 which changed to 4 A332 and 9 A333, 1 more A333 was ordered while all subsequent A330s have been A332s. Some were because the A380 was delayed, some also because the 787 was delayed.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 11:01 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Flyingsottsman wrote:
I thought Qantas was offered the 330 as a sweetener from Airbus because the A380 was delayed, ands that why the 744ER's stayed around to, did Qantas originally want, or had plans to operate the A330?


QF ordered A380s, Airbus gave some well priced A330s as a sweetener, they ordered the 744ER the same day. The A330s have been around since 2002, original order was 7 A332 6 A333 which changed to 4 A332 and 9 A333, 1 more A333 was ordered while all subsequent A330s have been A332s. Some were because the A380 was delayed, some also because the 787 was delayed.


It seems to be that many posters here describe the biggest wide body fleet at Qantas as an accident that just happened. At the time Qantas decided to add a significant number of A330 to their fleet, there were still lots of 747 and 767 around. The 747 used in long haul and the 767 mainly in short to medium haul.
It must have been a conscious decision to go for the A330 to replace the 767 fleet, as that was what the A330 replaced. All the time Qantas had heaps of 787 on order.
Delays in the A380 and 787 could only have played a minor role, the 787 and the A380 were ordered for long haul, when they got delayed, there were plenty of 747 still on the premises.
You do not collect a 30 frames fleet of a model by accident. All A330 were concentrated at Qantas, 11 frames moved from Jetstar and replaced with 787-8 and some new frames added.
IMO they A330 did fit the usage profile by Qantas and IMO still does.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 11:33 am

mjoelnir wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Flyingsottsman wrote:
I thought Qantas was offered the 330 as a sweetener from Airbus because the A380 was delayed, ands that why the 744ER's stayed around to, did Qantas originally want, or had plans to operate the A330?


QF ordered A380s, Airbus gave some well priced A330s as a sweetener, they ordered the 744ER the same day. The A330s have been around since 2002, original order was 7 A332 6 A333 which changed to 4 A332 and 9 A333, 1 more A333 was ordered while all subsequent A330s have been A332s. Some were because the A380 was delayed, some also because the 787 was delayed.


It seems to be that many posters here describe the biggest wide body fleet at Qantas as an accident that just happened. At the time Qantas decided to add a significant number of A330 to their fleet, there were still lots of 747 and 767 around. The 747 used in long haul and the 767 mainly in short to medium haul.
It must have been a conscious decision to go for the A330 to replace the 767 fleet, as that was what the A330 replaced. All the time Qantas had heaps of 787 on order.
Delays in the A380 and 787 could only have played a minor role, the 787 and the A380 were ordered for long haul, when they got delayed, there were plenty of 747 still on the premises.
You do not collect a 30 frames fleet of a model by accident. All A330 were concentrated at Qantas, 11 frames moved from Jetstar and replaced with 787-8 and some new frames added.
IMO they A330 did fit the usage profile by Qantas and IMO still does.


Of course it fits a ‘usage profile’, the question is whether in the future that profile justifies the complexity of a third type sandwiched between the A321XLR and 787.

The A321 is arguably the bigger game changer. I was looking at flights from SYD to PER in May, and noticed that the schedule is 4x 737 and 4x A330. It’s not far fetched to say that could be 8x A321 or 7x A321 and 1x 787. If they are down to only 1, or even 2, daily widebodies, ‘abusing’ the 787 would almost certainly be more efficient on a network-wide basis than a small A330 fleet, noting that the A330neo is also not optimised for relatively short sectors. The A321XLR also has the potential to add destinations or increase frequency to Asia. Why fly 1x daily A330 to MNL when you could offer 2x daily and/or launch MEL-MNL with the A321? Just because the A330 was the best plane in the 2000s doesn’t mean it automatically is in the 2020s, especially with 787s on property and A321s on order.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 11:56 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:

QF ordered A380s, Airbus gave some well priced A330s as a sweetener, they ordered the 744ER the same day. The A330s have been around since 2002, original order was 7 A332 6 A333 which changed to 4 A332 and 9 A333, 1 more A333 was ordered while all subsequent A330s have been A332s. Some were because the A380 was delayed, some also because the 787 was delayed.


It seems to be that many posters here describe the biggest wide body fleet at Qantas as an accident that just happened. At the time Qantas decided to add a significant number of A330 to their fleet, there were still lots of 747 and 767 around. The 747 used in long haul and the 767 mainly in short to medium haul.
It must have been a conscious decision to go for the A330 to replace the 767 fleet, as that was what the A330 replaced. All the time Qantas had heaps of 787 on order.
Delays in the A380 and 787 could only have played a minor role, the 787 and the A380 were ordered for long haul, when they got delayed, there were plenty of 747 still on the premises.
You do not collect a 30 frames fleet of a model by accident. All A330 were concentrated at Qantas, 11 frames moved from Jetstar and replaced with 787-8 and some new frames added.
IMO they A330 did fit the usage profile by Qantas and IMO still does.


Of course it fits a ‘usage profile’, the question is whether in the future that profile justifies the complexity of a third type sandwiched between the A321XLR and 787.

The A321 is arguably the bigger game changer. I was looking at flights from SYD to PER in May, and noticed that the schedule is 4x 737 and 4x A330. It’s not far fetched to say that could be 8x A321 or 7x A321 and 1x 787. If they are down to only 1, or even 2, daily widebodies, ‘abusing’ the 787 would almost certainly be more efficient on a network-wide basis than a small A330 fleet, noting that the A330neo is also not optimised for relatively short sectors. The A321XLR also has the potential to add destinations or increase frequency to Asia. Why fly 1x daily A330 to MNL when you could offer 2x daily and/or launch MEL-MNL with the A321? Just because the A330 was the best plane in the 2000s doesn’t mean it automatically is in the 2020s, especially with 787s on property and A321s on order.


There just one point forgotten with the A321, freight. Many of the routes the A330 is flying today are freight heavy. The A330 does also night flights freight only.
Are short and medium haul flights the forte of the 787?
There is not a small A330 fleet sandwiched between the narrow bodies and the 787, the A330 is the main wide body fleet in use.
When borders open and long haul is expanding again, the A380 being used again, than a small 787 fleet will be sandwiched between the A330 fleet and the A380 with A350 being added.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 12:02 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

It seems to be that many posters here describe the biggest wide body fleet at Qantas as an accident that just happened. At the time Qantas decided to add a significant number of A330 to their fleet, there were still lots of 747 and 767 around. The 747 used in long haul and the 767 mainly in short to medium haul.
It must have been a conscious decision to go for the A330 to replace the 767 fleet, as that was what the A330 replaced. All the time Qantas had heaps of 787 on order.
Delays in the A380 and 787 could only have played a minor role, the 787 and the A380 were ordered for long haul, when they got delayed, there were plenty of 747 still on the premises.
You do not collect a 30 frames fleet of a model by accident. All A330 were concentrated at Qantas, 11 frames moved from Jetstar and replaced with 787-8 and some new frames added.
IMO they A330 did fit the usage profile by Qantas and IMO still does.


Of course it fits a ‘usage profile’, the question is whether in the future that profile justifies the complexity of a third type sandwiched between the A321XLR and 787.

The A321 is arguably the bigger game changer. I was looking at flights from SYD to PER in May, and noticed that the schedule is 4x 737 and 4x A330. It’s not far fetched to say that could be 8x A321 or 7x A321 and 1x 787. If they are down to only 1, or even 2, daily widebodies, ‘abusing’ the 787 would almost certainly be more efficient on a network-wide basis than a small A330 fleet, noting that the A330neo is also not optimised for relatively short sectors. The A321XLR also has the potential to add destinations or increase frequency to Asia. Why fly 1x daily A330 to MNL when you could offer 2x daily and/or launch MEL-MNL with the A321? Just because the A330 was the best plane in the 2000s doesn’t mean it automatically is in the 2020s, especially with 787s on property and A321s on order.


There just one point forgotten with the A321, freight. Many of the routes the A330 is flying today are freight heavy. The A330 does also night flights freight only.
Are short and medium haul flights the forte of the 787?
There is not a small A330 fleet sandwiched between the narrow bodies and the 787, the A330 is the main wide body fleet in use.
When borders open and long haul is expanding again, the A380 being used again, than a small 787 fleet will be sandwiched between the A330 fleet and the A380 with A350 being added.

The 787 is as good as if not better than the A330 at carrying freight too.

That small 787 fleet is larger than the A380 fleet and the expected initial order of the A350 (“up to” 12).

I have yet to see any proof that the A330 is significantly better at shorter routes than the 787.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:07 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

It seems to be that many posters here describe the biggest wide body fleet at Qantas as an accident that just happened. At the time Qantas decided to add a significant number of A330 to their fleet, there were still lots of 747 and 767 around. The 747 used in long haul and the 767 mainly in short to medium haul.
It must have been a conscious decision to go for the A330 to replace the 767 fleet, as that was what the A330 replaced. All the time Qantas had heaps of 787 on order.
Delays in the A380 and 787 could only have played a minor role, the 787 and the A380 were ordered for long haul, when they got delayed, there were plenty of 747 still on the premises.
You do not collect a 30 frames fleet of a model by accident. All A330 were concentrated at Qantas, 11 frames moved from Jetstar and replaced with 787-8 and some new frames added.
IMO they A330 did fit the usage profile by Qantas and IMO still does.


Of course it fits a ‘usage profile’, the question is whether in the future that profile justifies the complexity of a third type sandwiched between the A321XLR and 787.

The A321 is arguably the bigger game changer. I was looking at flights from SYD to PER in May, and noticed that the schedule is 4x 737 and 4x A330. It’s not far fetched to say that could be 8x A321 or 7x A321 and 1x 787. If they are down to only 1, or even 2, daily widebodies, ‘abusing’ the 787 would almost certainly be more efficient on a network-wide basis than a small A330 fleet, noting that the A330neo is also not optimised for relatively short sectors. The A321XLR also has the potential to add destinations or increase frequency to Asia. Why fly 1x daily A330 to MNL when you could offer 2x daily and/or launch MEL-MNL with the A321? Just because the A330 was the best plane in the 2000s doesn’t mean it automatically is in the 2020s, especially with 787s on property and A321s on order.


There just one point forgotten with the A321, freight. Many of the routes the A330 is flying today are freight heavy. The A330 does also night flights freight only.
Are short and medium haul flights the forte of the 787?
There is not a small A330 fleet sandwiched between the narrow bodies and the 787, the A330 is the main wide body fleet in use.
When borders open and long haul is expanding again, the A380 being used again, than a small 787 fleet will be sandwiched between the A330 fleet and the A380 with A350 being added.


Regarding my ‘sandwiched’ comment, you missed my point even though I put italics. In the future, does the niche between the A321 and 787 exist? Not, does it exist now with no A321s and a shortage of longhaul aircraft due to retirement and storage. To your point, the ‘small’ 787 fleet will almost certainly grow, be it with Jetstar 788s or converting further options. The existing 14 are all converted options, and were not converted in one order. The 787 will only be ‘sandwiched’ between the A330 and A350 so long as the A330 is in the fleet, which won’t be forever. I will repeat what I said up thread, I can’t think of a single airline anywhere in the world that has ordered both 787s and A330neos. Why Qantas, with such a small widebody fleet, would be the first to break that trend seems, to me, bizarre.

Before Covid, Qantas occasionally scheduled 787s on SYD-MEL and SYD-BNE (and I’m talking summer 2019-20, not initial training flights), regularly scheduled them on SYD-AKL, and of course operated them daily on MEL-PER as part of QF9/10. MEL-PER is different as the aircraft continued to LHR, but for Qantas to use them on routes such as SYD-AKL, even SYD-MEL, presumably shows that they are comfortable with the operating costs of the 787 over those sectors.

If we exclude domestic flights for a moment, the bulk of the A330 flying is on routes roughly between 3900mi (SYD-SIN) and 5000mi (MEL-HND). Coincidentally, routes of this length arguably fall within the sweet spot of the A330s performance. On those routes between Australia and Asia SQ, TG, VN, BR, CZ, MU, NH, JL and probably a few more fly 787s, or at least did before Covid. For comparison, FRA-JFK is slightly shorter than 3900mi and FRA-YVR is roughly 5000mi. BA, VS, KL, LO, UA, AA, AC and probably several more use 787s on Trans Atlantic flights of a comparable length. I refuse to believe that all of those 15+ airlines have made a mistake by operating 787s on routes of that length. Yes, this is the A330s sweet spot, but the 787 is still perfectly efficient in this range.

Domestic flying is a bit different, but I personally don’t see the need for as many wide body domestic flights in the future. Qantas had ~30 767s which were almost entirely used for domestic during their final years, but only 10 ‘domestic’ A332s. Some of the ‘international’ A332s and A333s are used on domestic flights, but international flying (pre-Covid) accounted for about 15 of the remaining 18 A330s by my rough count. Using those rough numbers, ~13 A330s replaced ~30 767s. The majority of 767 flying was in fact replaced with 737s, often at higher frequency (e.g. 737s every 15 minutes at peak times on SYD-MEL). Admittedly the A330 can carry more cargo than the 767, but much of the 767’s domestic cargo capacity was replaced with dedicated freighters. Qantas Freight have steadily built their fleet of 733 and 734 P2F over the past decade, and with the A321 and A330 P2F this trend only looks set to continue. Just as the domestic widebody fleet more than halved when the 767s were retired, the same is quite likely when the A330s are retired IMHO, especially with the versatility and capacity of the A321. As I said before, Qantas know the cost and efficiency of the 787 on these routes, and once you’re down to fleet of maybe five or so domestic widebodies, there is very little efficiency to be gained by a new type. I would note again that the A330neo is also not optimised for short flights, and also that the likes of NH, JL, SQ, VN, AA, UA, HA etc use 787s on flights of a comparable length to Australian domestic flights (if not shorter, especially in the case of NH and JL).

Just to be clear, I’m not some die-hard 787 fanboy who will die on a hill defending it. The 787 isn’t perfect for all missions and the A330 is an excellent and very capable aircraft. I just don’t see how two relatively small fleets of 787s and A330neos is more efficient than one largish fleet on one or the other. The fact no airline has committed to a mixed fleet of these two types seems to validate that (compared to mixed fleets of 330/350 and 787/350, both of which are relatively common). Qantas have ordered the 787 and not the A330neo, and to me that answers that question.
 
tvh
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:17 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
I can’t think of a single airline anywhere in the world that has ordered both 787s and A330neos.

Virgin Atlantic
 
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flee
Posts: 1630
Joined: Mon Oct 12, 2009 8:14 am

Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:45 pm

RyanairGuru wrote:
Just to be clear, I’m not some die-hard 787 fanboy who will die on a hill defending it. The 787 isn’t perfect for all missions and the A330 is an excellent and very capable aircraft. I just don’t see how two relatively small fleets of 787s and A330neos is more efficient than one largish fleet on one or the other. The fact no airline has committed to a mixed fleet of these two types seems to validate that (compared to mixed fleets of 330/350 and 787/350, both of which are relatively common). Qantas have ordered the 787 and not the A330neo, and to me that answers that question.

I suspect the fixed costs of the partially or fully amortised A330s would be lower than having newish B788s from JQ. I am sure that QF is looking at the total cost of operations and not just the variable costs. As many of the A330s are still within QF's aircraft age policies, it makes little sense to retire them prematurely. Furthermore, as the B788s age and become highly or fully amortised QF might consider taking them over. QF is in a somewhat unique position as it has a fleet of different aircraft of varying capabilities and costs. Perhaps they are managing the fleet as a whole rather than slice them up into portions. We have an interesting situation here.
 
evanb
Posts: 1205
Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2016 3:26 pm

Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:55 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
Sure, the 6 744s were on the way out anyway and they had 3 789s left to come, Covid has changed the network somewhat. I’m not hugely sure myself the 789s will be back on routes like BNE-LAX to soon given the lack of them and currently no more on order bar the 3 undelivered thus far. They have gone to the effort to get an MTOW bump on some of the younger ones, 8 I think?


Those MTOW bumps are certainly useful elsewhere in the network (think MEL-DEL), so it's not a sunk cost just for one route. BNE-LAX certainly helped push them towards it though. I'm almost certain that we wouldn't have seen the A330s on BNE-LAX if QF were not short A380s and the 3 undelivered B789 that have not been delayed. If anything, it once again shows how immensely capable the A330s are, that a 30 plus year old design is still seeing these sorts of adaptations that are allowing amazing flexibility.
 
Cardude2
Posts: 769
Joined: Mon May 20, 2019 1:55 am

Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 6:25 pm

zkojq wrote:

As for the A330s, their replacement will be for the most part a mix of A321neos and 787-9. As mentioned earlier in the thread, it's intended that A350-1000ULRs will do some Asia flying between Ultra Long Haul sectors, so I guess that's a partial replacement too.


maybe but I taught they would be used for offsetting the Asian a380 routs so they can fully retire
 
TravelQ
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 8:55 pm

flee wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
Just to be clear, I’m not some die-hard 787 fanboy who will die on a hill defending it. The 787 isn’t perfect for all missions and the A330 is an excellent and very capable aircraft. I just don’t see how two relatively small fleets of 787s and A330neos is more efficient than one largish fleet on one or the other. The fact no airline has committed to a mixed fleet of these two types seems to validate that (compared to mixed fleets of 330/350 and 787/350, both of which are relatively common). Qantas have ordered the 787 and not the A330neo, and to me that answers that question.

I suspect the fixed costs of the partially or fully amortised A330s would be lower than having newish B788s from JQ. I am sure that QF is looking at the total cost of operations and not just the variable costs. As many of the A330s are still within QF's aircraft age policies, it makes little sense to retire them prematurely. Furthermore, as the B788s age and become highly or fully amortised QF might consider taking them over. QF is in a somewhat unique position as it has a fleet of different aircraft of varying capabilities and costs. Perhaps they are managing the fleet as a whole rather than slice them up into portions. We have an interesting situation here.


Many years ago I was advised airlines are asset managers first and airlines second.

If we go back to 2017 when QF announced the upgrades to their A330 fleet, a part of the upgrades included the standardisation of seating layouts between the international and domestic fleet. QF stated this would allow for higher utilisation of the fleet effectively increasing the carriers available capacity. As such, QF took advantage of an economic opportunity to increase revenues.

At the same time the question was asked about the viability of upgrading the older A330's which at the time were on the back end of their economic life. The response was the business case for the upgrades revolved around a five year economic life model. This is a relatively compelling number because it gave QF a fair amount of freedom with how the fleet would be used into the future (i.e. now!).

Approximately 3 years a completed a relatively simple analysis of the QF fleet and the economic benefit each type of aircraft. The outstanding winner was the 737-800 (won by a country mile) and the clear loser was the A380 (wasn't even in the race). At the time the A380 fleet of twelve aircraft had a higher book value than 737 which numbered 75 aircraft.

At the end of the day, aircraft efficiency is one aspect of running a profitable business. As has been seen with the QF restructuring, the real gains have revolved around reducing overhead costs and increasing staff productivity. If you go back in history the payback of the restructuring costs often amounted to less than six months.

From this perspective, you can't argue with the way QF have run their business. They've committed capital to areas of the business that would generate the greatest gain. at the end of the day, the A330, 787 and NEO are very much a side show to the effective QANTAS success story.
 
aschachter
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 9:41 pm

I have to ask, as I don't think anyone has mentioned it, but has the A321XLR order by Qantas spelt the end of the NMA at Qantas or is it still in their planning if it does come to realisation and Boeing actually produce the aircraft?
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Tue Feb 22, 2022 10:24 pm

flee wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
Just to be clear, I’m not some die-hard 787 fanboy who will die on a hill defending it. The 787 isn’t perfect for all missions and the A330 is an excellent and very capable aircraft. I just don’t see how two relatively small fleets of 787s and A330neos is more efficient than one largish fleet on one or the other. The fact no airline has committed to a mixed fleet of these two types seems to validate that (compared to mixed fleets of 330/350 and 787/350, both of which are relatively common). Qantas have ordered the 787 and not the A330neo, and to me that answers that question.

I suspect the fixed costs of the partially or fully amortised A330s would be lower than having newish B788s from JQ. I am sure that QF is looking at the total cost of operations and not just the variable costs. As many of the A330s are still within QF's aircraft age policies, it makes little sense to retire them prematurely. Furthermore, as the B788s age and become highly or fully amortised QF might consider taking them over. QF is in a somewhat unique position as it has a fleet of different aircraft of varying capabilities and costs. Perhaps they are managing the fleet as a whole rather than slice them up into portions. We have an interesting situation here.


I agree that the A330s are probably cheaper now, but this thread is about what will replace them. I believe that they will fly with Qantas for most of this decade, but they won’t go forever. At that point, largely depreciated 788s will likely be the most cost effective option, even if their trip costs alone are not optimal.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 3383
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 12:41 am

aschachter wrote:
I have to ask, as I don't think anyone has mentioned it, but has the A321XLR order by Qantas spelt the end of the NMA at Qantas or is it still in their planning if it does come to realisation and Boeing actually produce the aircraft?

The A321XLR order is recognition from QF that the NMA will not be an option for in-service operation for at least another 10 years. Realistically, it needs a revolution in engine technology for it to make sense given carbon fibre fuselages are less of a stepchange in economics for narrow-bodies compared with widebodies and, even then, Airbus will have the same access to the new technology so the business case remains hard for Boeing.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 3383
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 12:50 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
flee wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
Just to be clear, I’m not some die-hard 787 fanboy who will die on a hill defending it. The 787 isn’t perfect for all missions and the A330 is an excellent and very capable aircraft. I just don’t see how two relatively small fleets of 787s and A330neos is more efficient than one largish fleet on one or the other. The fact no airline has committed to a mixed fleet of these two types seems to validate that (compared to mixed fleets of 330/350 and 787/350, both of which are relatively common). Qantas have ordered the 787 and not the A330neo, and to me that answers that question.

I suspect the fixed costs of the partially or fully amortised A330s would be lower than having newish B788s from JQ. I am sure that QF is looking at the total cost of operations and not just the variable costs. As many of the A330s are still within QF's aircraft age policies, it makes little sense to retire them prematurely. Furthermore, as the B788s age and become highly or fully amortised QF might consider taking them over. QF is in a somewhat unique position as it has a fleet of different aircraft of varying capabilities and costs. Perhaps they are managing the fleet as a whole rather than slice them up into portions. We have an interesting situation here.


I agree that the A330s are probably cheaper now, but this thread is about what will replace them. I believe that they will fly with Qantas for most of this decade, but they won’t go forever. At that point, largely depreciated 788s will likely be the most cost effective option, even if their trip costs alone are not optimal.

The 788 option is there because the planes exist and they have to be deployed somewhere. They are not saleable in the medium term anyway so, even though they are probably not optimal, they will be used somehow. We always end up with the issue that QF ordered the 788s without proper crew rest facilities so they cannot be used on some routes so chances are they will abused on shorter sectors such as PER-SIN or SYD-CGK.

I feel most of the A332s Asian flying except for routes like DEL and PVG will probably end up being taken over by A321XLRs. From a passenger experience viewpoint, they may not be attractive, particularly for the cattle down the back, but they have great economics, enable greater frequencies and mean new routes not economic with the widebodies such as ADL-SIN and MEL-CGK suddenly become viable.
 
AdvancedBikkie
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 1:38 am

tullamarine wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
flee wrote:
We always end up with the issue that QF ordered the 788s without proper crew rest facilities so they cannot be used on some routes so chances are they will abused on shorter sectors such as PER-SIN or SYD-CGK.



I mean... can't they mod crew rests in when they convert the cabin from JQ to QF? They're remarkably small, and I reckon some first class seats have a bigger footprint.

Also, regarding the A350ULRs, and people saying that 789 long haul would be replaced by them -
I don't think so. The A350s will probably be used for Project Sunrise routes exclusively, and the A380/789 would probably fly their existing routes (SYD/MEL-LAX, PER-LHR if Qantas keeps their promise and continues with it). So I don't think 787s will be regulated to predominant medium haul any time soon; there'll probably be less stress on the fleet, but not so little that they'd be an A330 replacement. So QF would either have to hold on to their A330s or grab the JQ 788s for that.
 
oceanvikram
Posts: 176
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 5:30 am

Since QF have the B787 options available, it seems they will replace A330s, that is where the smart money is.

I am happy to be corrected but I was under the impression that QF were not happy with the turnaround times of the A330 and hence were used on MEL-SYD only during peak times and as far as I am aware VA never used theirs on this sector. VA and QF use/d the A330 primarily on the MEL/SYD/BNE (maybe) – PER, in other words all domestic widebodies lead to PER. I remember the midnight departures from PER to MEL/SYD/BNE (not sure) were A330 on both the airlines.

Before COVID the U/LH routes that QF had were the following:
    LHR – PER
    LAX – BNE
    LAX – MEL
    LAX – SYD
    SFO – SYD
    DFW – SYD
    YVR – SYD (seasonal I believe)
    SCL – SYD
    JNB – SYD

Most likely the following routes will get cancelled:
    LHR – PER due to Project Sunrise (I have very little faith this route will continue)
    SCL – SYD due to no feed from LATAM
    YVR – SYD strong possibility … maybe

The QF is SYD centric (for the right reasons) along with the Australian cricket team (NSW to be more accurate, for the wrong reasons). Therefore A330neo is the right aircraft for southeast Asia, east Asia, and India (if they decide to make it permanent) from SYD, MEL/BNE – SIN/HKG and maybe Tokyo. For the States and Europe the A350 fills those mission and I don’t think they will return to South America. Any expansion into southeast Asia and east Asia from MEL/BNE will most likely be via A321, no need for domestic operations.

Given the order of the A321X/LR and eventual purchase of the A350, the ideal replacement of the A330 is the A330 (NEO) for QF. However they have options on the 787 and already have over 10 in the fleet and is a good enough replacement for the A330 even though it is an over kill on most of their destinations.
 
jrfspa320
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Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:18 am

Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 5:58 am

oceanvikram wrote:
Since QF have the B787 options available, it seems they will replace A330s, that is where the smart money is.

I am happy to be corrected but I was under the impression that QF were not happy with the turnaround times of the A330 and hence were used on MEL-SYD only during peak times and as far as I am aware VA never used theirs on this sector. VA and QF use/d the A330 primarily on the MEL/SYD/BNE (maybe) – PER, in other words all domestic widebodies lead to PER. I remember the midnight departures from PER to MEL/SYD/BNE (not sure) were A330 on both the airlines.

Before COVID the U/LH routes that QF had were the following:
    LHR – PER
    LAX – BNE
    LAX – MEL
    LAX – SYD
    SFO – SYD
    DFW – SYD
    YVR – SYD (seasonal I believe)
    SCL – SYD
    JNB – SYD

Most likely the following routes will get cancelled:
    LHR – PER due to Project Sunrise (I have very little faith this route will continue)
    SCL – SYD due to no feed from LATAM
    YVR – SYD strong possibility … maybe

The QF is SYD centric (for the right reasons) along with the Australian cricket team (NSW to be more accurate, for the wrong reasons). Therefore A330neo is the right aircraft for southeast Asia, east Asia, and India (if they decide to make it permanent) from SYD, MEL/BNE – SIN/HKG and maybe Tokyo. For the States and Europe the A350 fills those mission and I don’t think they will return to South America. Any expansion into southeast Asia and east Asia from MEL/BNE will most likely be via A321, no need for domestic operations.

Given the order of the A321X/LR and eventual purchase of the A350, the ideal replacement of the A330 is the A330 (NEO) for QF. However they have options on the 787 and already have over 10 in the fleet and is a good enough replacement for the A330 even though it is an over kill on most of their destinations.


The vast majority of pax on PER-LHR are o/d so i cant see why it wouldn't continue.

The issue the A330 (and 787) has with triangle flights over the 767 is lack of stands that can accommodate them.
 
tullamarine
Posts: 3383
Joined: Thu Aug 05, 1999 1:14 pm

Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:09 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
oceanvikram wrote:
Since QF have the B787 options available, it seems they will replace A330s, that is where the smart money is.

I am happy to be corrected but I was under the impression that QF were not happy with the turnaround times of the A330 and hence were used on MEL-SYD only during peak times and as far as I am aware VA never used theirs on this sector. VA and QF use/d the A330 primarily on the MEL/SYD/BNE (maybe) – PER, in other words all domestic widebodies lead to PER. I remember the midnight departures from PER to MEL/SYD/BNE (not sure) were A330 on both the airlines.

Before COVID the U/LH routes that QF had were the following:
    LHR – PER
    LAX – BNE
    LAX – MEL
    LAX – SYD
    SFO – SYD
    DFW – SYD
    YVR – SYD (seasonal I believe)
    SCL – SYD
    JNB – SYD

Most likely the following routes will get cancelled:
    LHR – PER due to Project Sunrise (I have very little faith this route will continue)
    SCL – SYD due to no feed from LATAM
    YVR – SYD strong possibility … maybe

The QF is SYD centric (for the right reasons) along with the Australian cricket team (NSW to be more accurate, for the wrong reasons). Therefore A330neo is the right aircraft for southeast Asia, east Asia, and India (if they decide to make it permanent) from SYD, MEL/BNE – SIN/HKG and maybe Tokyo. For the States and Europe the A350 fills those mission and I don’t think they will return to South America. Any expansion into southeast Asia and east Asia from MEL/BNE will most likely be via A321, no need for domestic operations.

Given the order of the A321X/LR and eventual purchase of the A350, the ideal replacement of the A330 is the A330 (NEO) for QF. However they have options on the 787 and already have over 10 in the fleet and is a good enough replacement for the A330 even though it is an over kill on most of their destinations.


The vast majority of pax on PER-LHR are o/d so i cant see why it wouldn't continue.

The issue the A330 (and 787) has with triangle flights over the 767 is lack of stands that can accommodate them.

The A330 and 787 are also bigger and wider so take longer to disembark and board. The 767 was quite quick as it was dual aisle and only 7 abreast. (Being 7 abreast was inefficient in some ways as its added width and associated drag only added 1 seat per row over a narrowbody.) Obviously, using dual airbridges can help the larger planes but this is not always done or possible.
 
jrfspa320
Posts: 851
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:18 am

Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:24 am

tullamarine wrote:
jrfspa320 wrote:
oceanvikram wrote:
Since QF have the B787 options available, it seems they will replace A330s, that is where the smart money is.

I am happy to be corrected but I was under the impression that QF were not happy with the turnaround times of the A330 and hence were used on MEL-SYD only during peak times and as far as I am aware VA never used theirs on this sector. VA and QF use/d the A330 primarily on the MEL/SYD/BNE (maybe) – PER, in other words all domestic widebodies lead to PER. I remember the midnight departures from PER to MEL/SYD/BNE (not sure) were A330 on both the airlines.

Before COVID the U/LH routes that QF had were the following:
    LHR – PER
    LAX – BNE
    LAX – MEL
    LAX – SYD
    SFO – SYD
    DFW – SYD
    YVR – SYD (seasonal I believe)
    SCL – SYD
    JNB – SYD

Most likely the following routes will get cancelled:
    LHR – PER due to Project Sunrise (I have very little faith this route will continue)
    SCL – SYD due to no feed from LATAM
    YVR – SYD strong possibility … maybe

The QF is SYD centric (for the right reasons) along with the Australian cricket team (NSW to be more accurate, for the wrong reasons). Therefore A330neo is the right aircraft for southeast Asia, east Asia, and India (if they decide to make it permanent) from SYD, MEL/BNE – SIN/HKG and maybe Tokyo. For the States and Europe the A350 fills those mission and I don’t think they will return to South America. Any expansion into southeast Asia and east Asia from MEL/BNE will most likely be via A321, no need for domestic operations.

Given the order of the A321X/LR and eventual purchase of the A350, the ideal replacement of the A330 is the A330 (NEO) for QF. However they have options on the 787 and already have over 10 in the fleet and is a good enough replacement for the A330 even though it is an over kill on most of their destinations.


The vast majority of pax on PER-LHR are o/d so i cant see why it wouldn't continue.

The issue the A330 (and 787) has with triangle flights over the 767 is lack of stands that can accommodate them.

The A330 and 787 are also bigger and wider so take longer to disembark and board. The 767 was quite quick as it was dual aisle and only 7 abreast. (Being 7 abreast was inefficient in some ways as its added width and associated drag only added 1 seat per row over a narrowbody.) Obviously, using dual airbridges can help the larger planes but this is not always done or possible.


Indeed. The old C pier (Main Qantas pier) at Melbourne is a good example. Used to see 767s side by side along here, the A330s and 787s wont fit due to wing span and length. SYD/BNE/PER arnt much better.

Our domestic terminals were just not built to accommodate todays widebody aircraft.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8911
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:56 am

tullamarine wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
flee wrote:
I suspect the fixed costs of the partially or fully amortised A330s would be lower than having newish B788s from JQ. I am sure that QF is looking at the total cost of operations and not just the variable costs. As many of the A330s are still within QF's aircraft age policies, it makes little sense to retire them prematurely. Furthermore, as the B788s age and become highly or fully amortised QF might consider taking them over. QF is in a somewhat unique position as it has a fleet of different aircraft of varying capabilities and costs. Perhaps they are managing the fleet as a whole rather than slice them up into portions. We have an interesting situation here.


I agree that the A330s are probably cheaper now, but this thread is about what will replace them. I believe that they will fly with Qantas for most of this decade, but they won’t go forever. At that point, largely depreciated 788s will likely be the most cost effective option, even if their trip costs alone are not optimal.

The 788 option is there because the planes exist and they have to be deployed somewhere. They are not saleable in the medium term anyway so, even though they are probably not optimal, they will be used somehow. We always end up with the issue that QF ordered the 788s without proper crew rest facilities so they cannot be used on some routes so chances are they will abused on shorter sectors such as PER-SIN or SYD-CGK.

I feel most of the A332s Asian flying except for routes like DEL and PVG will probably end up being taken over by A321XLRs. From a passenger experience viewpoint, they may not be attractive, particularly for the cattle down the back, but they have great economics, enable greater frequencies and mean new routes not economic with the widebodies such as ADL-SIN and MEL-CGK suddenly become viable.



Widebodies will continue on some Asian routes for freight, also HND ex SYD/MEL/BNE, SYD/MEL/BNE-SIN might see more frequency but will have at least 1 daily widebody I would have thought then the A321 to build frequency, MEL/SYD had 2 daily widebodies before while SYD had a third at times and JQ ran a 788 MEL-SIN as well a few days a week plus a QF A388 on 1 flight. Depending on how HKG recovers you would see widebodies there I would have thought.
 
User avatar
RyanairGuru
Posts: 9259
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:03 am

jrfspa320 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
jrfspa320 wrote:

The vast majority of pax on PER-LHR are o/d so i cant see why it wouldn't continue.

The issue the A330 (and 787) has with triangle flights over the 767 is lack of stands that can accommodate them.

The A330 and 787 are also bigger and wider so take longer to disembark and board. The 767 was quite quick as it was dual aisle and only 7 abreast. (Being 7 abreast was inefficient in some ways as its added width and associated drag only added 1 seat per row over a narrowbody.) Obviously, using dual airbridges can help the larger planes but this is not always done or possible.


Indeed. The old C pier (Main Qantas pier) at Melbourne is a good example. Used to see 767s side by side along here, the A330s and 787s wont fit due to wing span and length. SYD/BNE/PER arnt much better.

Our domestic terminals were just not built to accommodate todays widebody aircraft.


Relative the number of A330s it sees, BNE is definitely the least cumbersome. Gates 22, 23, 24 and one of the gates in the satellite (20?) can comfortably accommodate an A330.

Sydney is probably the worse, only 10 and 11 can accommodate an A330. 12 also can, but in doing blocks 14. In comparison I’m fairly sure every gate along the long arm could accommodate a 767.

Melbourne isn’t as bad as Sydney. Gates 3, 11, 21, 23 (and maybe one or two more?) can take an A330 without blocking adjacent gates.
 
ZK-NBT
Posts: 8911
Joined: Mon Oct 16, 2000 5:42 pm

Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:04 am

oceanvikram wrote:
Since QF have the B787 options available, it seems they will replace A330s, that is where the smart money is.

I am happy to be corrected but I was under the impression that QF were not happy with the turnaround times of the A330 and hence were used on MEL-SYD only during peak times and as far as I am aware VA never used theirs on this sector. VA and QF use/d the A330 primarily on the MEL/SYD/BNE (maybe) – PER, in other words all domestic widebodies lead to PER. I remember the midnight departures from PER to MEL/SYD/BNE (not sure) were A330 on both the airlines.

Before COVID the U/LH routes that QF had were the following:
    LHR – PER
    LAX – BNE
    LAX – MEL
    LAX – SYD
    SFO – SYD
    DFW – SYD
    YVR – SYD (seasonal I believe)
    SCL – SYD
    JNB – SYD

Most likely the following routes will get cancelled:
    LHR – PER due to Project Sunrise (I have very little faith this route will continue)
    SCL – SYD due to no feed from LATAM
    YVR – SYD strong possibility … maybe

The QF is SYD centric (for the right reasons) along with the Australian cricket team (NSW to be more accurate, for the wrong reasons). Therefore A330neo is the right aircraft for southeast Asia, east Asia, and India (if they decide to make it permanent) from SYD, MEL/BNE – SIN/HKG and maybe Tokyo. For the States and Europe the A350 fills those mission and I don’t think they will return to South America. Any expansion into southeast Asia and east Asia from MEL/BNE will most likely be via A321, no need for domestic operations.

Given the order of the A321X/LR and eventual purchase of the A350, the ideal replacement of the A330 is the A330 (NEO) for QF. However they have options on the 787 and already have over 10 in the fleet and is a good enough replacement for the A330 even though it is an over kill on most of their destinations.


As others have said, I would also expect LHR-PER to continue. YVR is year round at least for now was seasonal before covid, SCL, not sure but QF want to fly to Brazil or at least they did, NZ no longer serve EZE either but I would expect QF to return to somewhere in South America, weather it is SCL or not remains to be seen

I don't really get the 787 being overkill argument, as some have said it is already there including the 788s at JQ which I would expect may be the main A330 widebody replacement at QF, I really can't see the A330NEO at QF, Airbus would have to be giving them away with the A350.
 
jrfspa320
Posts: 851
Joined: Fri Sep 16, 2005 12:18 am

Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:13 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
jrfspa320 wrote:
tullamarine wrote:
The A330 and 787 are also bigger and wider so take longer to disembark and board. The 767 was quite quick as it was dual aisle and only 7 abreast. (Being 7 abreast was inefficient in some ways as its added width and associated drag only added 1 seat per row over a narrowbody.) Obviously, using dual airbridges can help the larger planes but this is not always done or possible.


Indeed. The old C pier (Main Qantas pier) at Melbourne is a good example. Used to see 767s side by side along here, the A330s and 787s wont fit due to wing span and length. SYD/BNE/PER arnt much better.

Our domestic terminals were just not built to accommodate todays widebody aircraft.


Relative the number of A330s it sees, BNE is definitely the least cumbersome. Gates 22, 23, 24 and one of the gates in the satellite (20?) can comfortably accommodate an A330.

Sydney is probably the worse, only 10 and 11 can accommodate an A330. 12 also can, but in doing blocks 14. In comparison I’m fairly sure every gate along the long arm could accommodate a 767.

Melbourne isn’t as bad as Sydney. Gates 3, 11, 21, 23 (and maybe one or two more?) can take an A330 without blocking adjacent gates.


Thats correct, there's 4 gates in MEL, 3 in SYD (Stands 10,11, 13) and also can fit on the main row but blocking one adjacent gate. No where near as flexible as the 767s used to be gate wise.
 
anstar
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:17 am

tvh wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
I can’t think of a single airline anywhere in the world that has ordered both 787s and A330neos.

Virgin Atlantic


mmm enough said... an airline with 36 aircraft in their fleet and 3 different fleets and 4 different fleet configs that has pretty much been loss making since Bermuda II was scrapped at LHR is probably not a role model to follow.
[/quote]

Re crew no crew rest on the JQ 788's... can't see this an issue if they replace the 330 on shorter asian routes as the 330 doesn't have crew rest either.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:10 am

anstar wrote:
tvh wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
I can’t think of a single airline anywhere in the world that has ordered both 787s and A330neos.

Virgin Atlantic


mmm enough said... an airline with 36 aircraft in their fleet and 3 different fleets and 4 different fleet configs that has pretty much been loss making since Bermuda II was scrapped at LHR is probably not a role model to follow.


Re crew no crew rest on the JQ 788's... can't see this an issue if they replace the 330 on shorter asian routes as the 330 doesn't have crew rest either.[/quote]

I forgot about VS, happy to be corrected, but agree that VS probably aren’t the best guide on anything.

Re crew rest, I agree. Qantas are now flying A330s as far as LAX and DEL without proper crew rest, so long as the 788s only replace A330 routes I can’t see why this would be a deal breaker
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:03 am

I think there are a few variables we can consider;

- QF dedicated freight fleet, 321F, 767F, 737, and 330F - I don’t believe QF had as large a freighter fleet when they ordered the 330s for domestic(maybe no widebodies)
- change in domestic market, VA no longe fly wide bodies trans-con, does QF need to compete with this?
-Western Sydney reducing pressure on SYD are widebodies as critical in the future?
- were the 330s also refitted with tech crew rest? Could a 788 not also be?
- Shorter term demand to Asia maybe suppressed, how long before they get a return on invested capital? Could the 788 be a cheaper option than a new build?
- QF terminals no longer owned, airport company run them, what does the future hold, I could see SYD/MEL/BNE moving toward more of a common use model opening up development of widebody gates
- I recall a rumour issue with the 330 was also the speed fuel could be pumped onboard for domestic hops, 767 was faster. Does the 787 also have this issue?

I feel QF have been moving to smaller thinner routes ex-MEL/BNE and naturally PER that need more 787s regardless. The 350 will create new routes, and eventually take over 380 routes, but they will still be too big for many thinner routes - BNE/MEL- SFO, SYD-SCL etc. To me a bigger 787 fleet makes sense from a flexibility and fleet simplification perspective.

Are the US carriers the only others that use their 787 on a mix of short and long haul? Maybe SQ?
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:36 am

smi0006 wrote:
I think there are a few variables we can consider;

- QF dedicated freight fleet, 321F, 767F, 737, and 330F - I don’t believe QF had as large a freighter fleet when they ordered the 330s for domestic(maybe no widebodies)
- change in domestic market, VA no longe fly wide bodies trans-con, does QF need to compete with this?
-Western Sydney reducing pressure on SYD are widebodies as critical in the future?
- were the 330s also refitted with tech crew rest? Could a 788 not also be?
- Shorter term demand to Asia maybe suppressed, how long before they get a return on invested capital? Could the 788 be a cheaper option than a new build?
- QF terminals no longer owned, airport company run them, what does the future hold, I could see SYD/MEL/BNE moving toward more of a common use model opening up development of widebody gates
- I recall a rumour issue with the 330 was also the speed fuel could be pumped onboard for domestic hops, 767 was faster. Does the 787 also have this issue?

I feel QF have been moving to smaller thinner routes ex-MEL/BNE and naturally PER that need more 787s regardless. The 350 will create new routes, and eventually take over 380 routes, but they will still be too big for many thinner routes - BNE/MEL- SFO, SYD-SCL etc. To me a bigger 787 fleet makes sense from a flexibility and fleet simplification perspective.

Are the US carriers the only others that use their 787 on a mix of short and long haul? Maybe SQ?


Qanta has a dedicated freighter fleet

3 x A321p2f
1 x 767-300F
and than some rather old
4 x 737-300 BDSF and 1 x 737-400SF average age 35 years
3 x Avro RJ average age 32 years.

That is a mighty fleet for a cargo heavy airline and eliminates any need for belly freight in the passenger A330 frames :sarcastic:
The A321p2f came in for a new contract with the Australian postal service.

Qantas still has only 11 787 passenger frames and 28 A330 passenger frames.

I know that some poster here are counting the 11 Jetstar 787-8. But what will replace than the 787 at Jetstar?
When Qantas took the 11 Jetstar A330, they were replaced with the 11 787-8.
Using those 787 for Qantas would open up the need to order something instead.
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 9:43 am

mjoelnir wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
I think there are a few variables we can consider;

- QF dedicated freight fleet, 321F, 767F, 737, and 330F - I don’t believe QF had as large a freighter fleet when they ordered the 330s for domestic(maybe no widebodies)
- change in domestic market, VA no longe fly wide bodies trans-con, does QF need to compete with this?
-Western Sydney reducing pressure on SYD are widebodies as critical in the future?
- were the 330s also refitted with tech crew rest? Could a 788 not also be?
- Shorter term demand to Asia maybe suppressed, how long before they get a return on invested capital? Could the 788 be a cheaper option than a new build?
- QF terminals no longer owned, airport company run them, what does the future hold, I could see SYD/MEL/BNE moving toward more of a common use model opening up development of widebody gates
- I recall a rumour issue with the 330 was also the speed fuel could be pumped onboard for domestic hops, 767 was faster. Does the 787 also have this issue?

I feel QF have been moving to smaller thinner routes ex-MEL/BNE and naturally PER that need more 787s regardless. The 350 will create new routes, and eventually take over 380 routes, but they will still be too big for many thinner routes - BNE/MEL- SFO, SYD-SCL etc. To me a bigger 787 fleet makes sense from a flexibility and fleet simplification perspective.

Are the US carriers the only others that use their 787 on a mix of short and long haul? Maybe SQ?


Qanta has a dedicated freighter fleet

3 x A321p2f
1 x 767-300F
and than some rather old
4 x 737-300 BDSF and 1 x 737-400SF average age 35 years
3 x Avro RJ average age 32 years.

That is a mighty fleet for a cargo heavy airline and eliminates any need for belly freight in the passenger A330 frames :sarcastic:
The A321p2f came in for a new contract with the Australian postal service.

Qantas still has only 11 787 passenger frames and 28 A330 passenger frames.

I know that some poster here are counting the 11 Jetstar 787-8. But what will replace than the 787 at Jetstar?
When Qantas took the 11 Jetstar A330, they were replaced with the 11 787-8.
Using those 787 for Qantas would open up the need to order something instead.


Who said it’s eliminating? Pax 321 can’t carry freight on SYD-MEL, where most pax have 0-1 bags? It’s just a shift in market dynamics that wasn’t present when the 330s were ordered. They are also about to convert two 330s to freighters, so why stop there? How many daily MEL/BNE/SYD rotations were actually in the schedule?

I’m just flagging it as a consideration that a like for like replacement may not be needed for the 330s.

The 18 or so 321LR JQ have on order will replace the 787 at JQ - I’d be very shocked if JQ can absorb the 321s and keep the 11 787. Exception will be HNL and maybe Japan.

I see a need for domestic widebodies, just less than we previously saw, and not warranting a dedicated investment.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:35 am

smi0006 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
I think there are a few variables we can consider;

- QF dedicated freight fleet, 321F, 767F, 737, and 330F - I don’t believe QF had as large a freighter fleet when they ordered the 330s for domestic(maybe no widebodies)
- change in domestic market, VA no longe fly wide bodies trans-con, does QF need to compete with this?
-Western Sydney reducing pressure on SYD are widebodies as critical in the future?
- were the 330s also refitted with tech crew rest? Could a 788 not also be?
- Shorter term demand to Asia maybe suppressed, how long before they get a return on invested capital? Could the 788 be a cheaper option than a new build?
- QF terminals no longer owned, airport company run them, what does the future hold, I could see SYD/MEL/BNE moving toward more of a common use model opening up development of widebody gates
- I recall a rumour issue with the 330 was also the speed fuel could be pumped onboard for domestic hops, 767 was faster. Does the 787 also have this issue?

I feel QF have been moving to smaller thinner routes ex-MEL/BNE and naturally PER that need more 787s regardless. The 350 will create new routes, and eventually take over 380 routes, but they will still be too big for many thinner routes - BNE/MEL- SFO, SYD-SCL etc. To me a bigger 787 fleet makes sense from a flexibility and fleet simplification perspective.

Are the US carriers the only others that use their 787 on a mix of short and long haul? Maybe SQ?


Qanta has a dedicated freighter fleet

3 x A321p2f
1 x 767-300F
and than some rather old
4 x 737-300 BDSF and 1 x 737-400SF average age 35 years
3 x Avro RJ average age 32 years.

That is a mighty fleet for a cargo heavy airline and eliminates any need for belly freight in the passenger A330 frames :sarcastic:
The A321p2f came in for a new contract with the Australian postal service.

Qantas still has only 11 787 passenger frames and 28 A330 passenger frames.

I know that some poster here are counting the 11 Jetstar 787-8. But what will replace than the 787 at Jetstar?
When Qantas took the 11 Jetstar A330, they were replaced with the 11 787-8.
Using those 787 for Qantas would open up the need to order something instead.


Who said it’s eliminating? Pax 321 can’t carry freight on SYD-MEL, where most pax have 0-1 bags? It’s just a shift in market dynamics that wasn’t present when the 330s were ordered. They are also about to convert two 330s to freighters, so why stop there? How many daily MEL/BNE/SYD rotations were actually in the schedule?

I’m just flagging it as a consideration that a like for like replacement may not be needed for the 330s.

The 18 or so 321LR JQ have on order will replace the 787 at JQ - I’d be very shocked if JQ can absorb the 321s and keep the 11 787. Exception will be HNL and maybe Japan.

I see a need for domestic widebodies, just less than we previously saw, and not warranting a dedicated investment.


There has been a lot talked about what Qantas will order in the last years.

Narrow bodies. Qantas was not supposed to order A320neo family frames, as flying the same models as Jetstar would keep the pilot pools apart.
Qantas ordered A321neo.

Project sunrise, Qantas was supposed to order the all conquering 777-8. Qantas decided on the A350.

Now Qantas has a smallish fleet of 787 and a big fleet of A330, and of course Qantas should add 787 and not the comparable A330neo.

Converting the oldest A330 to freighters, I think about 2 of them, still leaves a passenger fleet of 26 and does not reduce the A330 in numbers, because outgoing passenger frames become incoming freighters.

I see no real reason why Qantas could not standardizes on A330 and A350 rather than 787. The 787 fleet is smaller and should command a higher price if sold off.
The A330neo fits far better in the whole fleet. With A380, future A350 and A320 family replacing the 737.

Again I think that Qantas is not even thinking about what the A330ceo will be replaced with quite a few years in the future.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 11:32 am

mjoelnir wrote:

Now Qantas has a smallish fleet of 787 and a big fleet of A330, and of course Qantas should add 787 and not the comparable A330neo.

Converting the oldest A330 to freighters, I think about 2 of them, still leaves a passenger fleet of 26 and does not reduce the A330 in numbers, because outgoing passenger frames become incoming freighters.

For probably the 10th time this thread QF, with 787s on order, has 25 787s. You can’t ignore JQ when it comes to this discussion. QF are sharing MX and fleet costs with them, and QF may one day operate some if not all of those 788s themselves.
 
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 12:15 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
[list]LHR – PER due to Project Sunrise (I have very little faith this route will continue)

As others have said, I would also expect LHR-PER to continue.


We will see. It will no longer start in MEL as Sunrise will allow non-stop MEL-LHR. So PER-LHR OD traffic only.
 
majano
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 3:29 pm

Polot wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

Now Qantas has a smallish fleet of 787 and a big fleet of A330, and of course Qantas should add 787 and not the comparable A330neo.

Converting the oldest A330 to freighters, I think about 2 of them, still leaves a passenger fleet of 26 and does not reduce the A330 in numbers, because outgoing passenger frames become incoming freighters.

For probably the 10th time this thread QF, with 787s on order, has 25 787s. You can’t ignore JQ when it comes to this discussion. QF are sharing MX and fleet costs with them, and QF may one day operate some if not all of those 788s themselves.

How about responding to facts with facts and not speculation?
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 3:34 pm

majano wrote:
Polot wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

Now Qantas has a smallish fleet of 787 and a big fleet of A330, and of course Qantas should add 787 and not the comparable A330neo.

Converting the oldest A330 to freighters, I think about 2 of them, still leaves a passenger fleet of 26 and does not reduce the A330 in numbers, because outgoing passenger frames become incoming freighters.

For probably the 10th time this thread QF, with 787s on order, has 25 787s. You can’t ignore JQ when it comes to this discussion. QF are sharing MX and fleet costs with them, and QF may one day operate some if not all of those 788s themselves.

How about responding to facts with facts and not speculation?

It’s not speculation that JQ (a wholly owned subsidiary of QF [not speculation]) has 11 788s, QF has 11 789s + 3 on order (11+11+3= 25), and that they pool together resources (you seriously think QF group is not sharing MX resources between their airlines where they can?). Here is an example of that: https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/m ... afi-klm-em

My last statement was quite clearly written as speculation, but no more speculative than assuming that in the distant future, when QF is ready to replace A330ceos, that they will still be operating the A380 (which after the addition of the 3 789s will be a smaller fleet than QF mainline 787 fleet [not speculation], since fleet size seems to be a huge concern to some people here), or technically the A350 (which I remind you, QF currently has 0 on order [not speculation]). Or that they will order the A330neo [which is speculation]. After all many of those QF A332s being used now were previously operated by…JQ [not speculation]
 
majano
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 5:50 pm

Polot wrote:
majano wrote:
Polot wrote:
For probably the 10th time this thread QF, with 787s on order, has 25 787s. You can’t ignore JQ when it comes to this discussion. QF are sharing MX and fleet costs with them, and QF may one day operate some if not all of those 788s themselves.

How about responding to facts with facts and not speculation?

It’s not speculation that JQ (a wholly owned subsidiary of QF [not speculation]) has 11 788s, QF has 11 789s + 3 on order (11+11+3= 25), and that they pool together resources (you seriously think QF group is not sharing MX resources between their airlines where they can?). Here is an example of that: https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/m ... afi-klm-em

My last statement was quite clearly written as speculation, but no more speculative than assuming that in the distant future, when QF is ready to replace A330ceos, that they will still be operating the A380 (which after the addition of the 3 789s will be a smaller fleet than QF mainline 787 fleet [not speculation], since fleet size seems to be a huge concern to some people here), or technically the A350 (which I remind you, QF currently has 0 on order [not speculation]). Or that they will order the A330neo [which is speculation]. After all many of those QF A332s being used now were previously operated by…JQ [not speculation]

There are many valid reasons why companies establish subsidiaries, one of these is to isolate the liabilities of each entity. So I don't agree with the invented facts of your first paragraph.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 5:59 pm

majano wrote:
Polot wrote:
majano wrote:
How about responding to facts with facts and not speculation?

It’s not speculation that JQ (a wholly owned subsidiary of QF [not speculation]) has 11 788s, QF has 11 789s + 3 on order (11+11+3= 25), and that they pool together resources (you seriously think QF group is not sharing MX resources between their airlines where they can?). Here is an example of that: https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/m ... afi-klm-em

My last statement was quite clearly written as speculation, but no more speculative than assuming that in the distant future, when QF is ready to replace A330ceos, that they will still be operating the A380 (which after the addition of the 3 789s will be a smaller fleet than QF mainline 787 fleet [not speculation], since fleet size seems to be a huge concern to some people here), or technically the A350 (which I remind you, QF currently has 0 on order [not speculation]). Or that they will order the A330neo [which is speculation]. After all many of those QF A332s being used now were previously operated by…JQ [not speculation]

There are many valid reasons why companies establish subsidiaries, one of these is to isolate the liabilities of each entity. So I don't agree with the invented facts of your first paragraph.

Both entities have 787s. They are both pooling resources. I provided a link to an example. QF and JQ did not negotiate their agreements that I linked to separately. They are getting volume discounts by including both fleets. Qantas Engineering (QF’s MRO) regularly works on the Jetstar fleet.
 
majano
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:06 pm

Polot wrote:
majano wrote:
Polot wrote:
It’s not speculation that JQ (a wholly owned subsidiary of QF [not speculation]) has 11 788s, QF has 11 789s + 3 on order (11+11+3= 25), and that they pool together resources (you seriously think QF group is not sharing MX resources between their airlines where they can?). Here is an example of that: https://www.aviationpros.com/aircraft/m ... afi-klm-em

My last statement was quite clearly written as speculation, but no more speculative than assuming that in the distant future, when QF is ready to replace A330ceos, that they will still be operating the A380 (which after the addition of the 3 789s will be a smaller fleet than QF mainline 787 fleet [not speculation], since fleet size seems to be a huge concern to some people here), or technically the A350 (which I remind you, QF currently has 0 on order [not speculation]). Or that they will order the A330neo [which is speculation]. After all many of those QF A332s being used now were previously operated by…JQ [not speculation]

There are many valid reasons why companies establish subsidiaries, one of these is to isolate the liabilities of each entity. So I don't agree with the invented facts of your first paragraph.

Both entities have 787s. They are both pooling resources. I provided a link to an example. QF and JQ did not negotiate their agreements that I linked to separately. They are getting volume discounts by including both fleets.

I hear you, but that doesn't mean they have become a single entity. So Qantas still has only eleven 787. We are all free to speculate on the future size of the various fleets, be it 787, A330 or indeed the A330neo.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 6:10 pm

majano wrote:
Polot wrote:
majano wrote:
There are many valid reasons why companies establish subsidiaries, one of these is to isolate the liabilities of each entity. So I don't agree with the invented facts of your first paragraph.

Both entities have 787s. They are both pooling resources. I provided a link to an example. QF and JQ did not negotiate their agreements that I linked to separately. They are getting volume discounts by including both fleets.

I hear you, but that doesn't mean they have become a single entity. So Qantas still has only eleven 787. We are all free to speculate on the future size of the various fleets, be it 787, A330 or indeed the A330neo.

It matters when you start using fleet size as a reason that a fleet should be eliminated. The implication behind that is it is less cost effective to keep the smaller fleet, but when doing comparisons you can’t ignore the cost efficiencies that QF gets from having a subsidiary that is also operating the type. The QF group is signing agreements regarding the 787 with ~25 planes involved, not ~14.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 7:06 pm

Polot wrote:
majano wrote:
Polot wrote:
Both entities have 787s. They are both pooling resources. I provided a link to an example. QF and JQ did not negotiate their agreements that I linked to separately. They are getting volume discounts by including both fleets.

I hear you, but that doesn't mean they have become a single entity. So Qantas still has only eleven 787. We are all free to speculate on the future size of the various fleets, be it 787, A330 or indeed the A330neo.

It matters when you start using fleet size as a reason that a fleet should be eliminated. The implication behind that is it is less cost effective to keep the smaller fleet, but when doing comparisons you can’t ignore the cost efficiencies that QF gets from having a subsidiary that is also operating the type. The QF group is signing agreements regarding the 787 with ~25 planes involved, not ~14.

To add to this (since too late to edit) you can’t look at the word body fleet in a vacuum. QF Group has 25 787s. Yes only 14 of them are at QF, but let’s say they do what mjoenir says and gets rid of them at QF. That still leaves 11 788s at JetStar. Having 14 out of 25 787s is bad, but having just 11 total fine? Or do they now have to replace 25 planes instead of 14? Why does it make financial sense to replace 25 partially depreciated 787s with brand new A330neos? The A330neo’s efficiency is at best similar to those 787s, it’s not like it’s 10-15% higher, nor do they open up new route possibilities (because of payload/range, etc).
 
majano
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:30 pm

Polot wrote:
Polot wrote:
majano wrote:
I hear you, but that doesn't mean they have become a single entity. So Qantas still has only eleven 787. We are all free to speculate on the future size of the various fleets, be it 787, A330 or indeed the A330neo.

It matters when you start using fleet size as a reason that a fleet should be eliminated. The implication behind that is it is less cost effective to keep the smaller fleet, but when doing comparisons you can’t ignore the cost efficiencies that QF gets from having a subsidiary that is also operating the type. The QF group is signing agreements regarding the 787 with ~25 planes involved, not ~14.

To add to this (since too late to edit) you can’t look at the word body fleet in a vacuum. QF Group has 25 787s. Yes only 14 of them are at QF, but let’s say they do what mjoenir says and gets rid of them at QF. That still leaves 11 788s at JetStar. Having 14 out of 25 787s is bad, but having just 11 total fine? Or do they now have to replace 25 planes instead of 14? Why does it make financial sense to replace 25 partially depreciated 787s with brand new A330neos? The A330neo’s efficiency is at best similar to those 787s, it’s not like it’s 10-15% higher, nor do they open up new route possibilities (because of payload/range, etc).

I have tried my level best to make it clear that I have no qualms at all about ideas being thrown around as to the future fleet. It is the current fleet I merely wanted to correct. Your response seems to conflate the present and the future into one. There are only 11 787 in the QF fleet today. Yes it will get to 14, but that has not happened yet. It's like saying there are 20 A223s in the QF fleet just because they have that much on order!

The discussion is about replacing the A330s, not the 787. Acquiring A330neo should not mean an automatic elimination of the 787 from the fleet, IMHO. Look at the addition of the 787 and the continuation of the A330 as an example.

Let me state again that I doubt that the airline itself has formed an opinion on the topic, the A330s from what we read are:
1. Relatively new,
2. Have enjoyed a recent refurbishment, and
3. The A332s have had an MTOW boost

To be clear, I am NOT offering any speculation of my own.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 8:44 pm

majano wrote:
Polot wrote:
Polot wrote:
It matters when you start using fleet size as a reason that a fleet should be eliminated. The implication behind that is it is less cost effective to keep the smaller fleet, but when doing comparisons you can’t ignore the cost efficiencies that QF gets from having a subsidiary that is also operating the type. The QF group is signing agreements regarding the 787 with ~25 planes involved, not ~14.

To add to this (since too late to edit) you can’t look at the word body fleet in a vacuum. QF Group has 25 787s. Yes only 14 of them are at QF, but let’s say they do what mjoenir says and gets rid of them at QF. That still leaves 11 788s at JetStar. Having 14 out of 25 787s is bad, but having just 11 total fine? Or do they now have to replace 25 planes instead of 14? Why does it make financial sense to replace 25 partially depreciated 787s with brand new A330neos? The A330neo’s efficiency is at best similar to those 787s, it’s not like it’s 10-15% higher, nor do they open up new route possibilities (because of payload/range, etc).

I have tried my level best to make it clear that I have no qualms at all about ideas being thrown around as to the future fleet. It is the current fleet I merely wanted to correct. Your response seems to conflate the present and the future into one. There are only 11 787 in the QF fleet today. Yes it will get to 14, but that has not happened yet. It's like saying there are 20 A223s in the QF fleet just because they have that much on order!

The discussion is about replacing the A330s, not the 787. Acquiring A330neo should not mean an automatic elimination of the 787 from the fleet, IMHO. Look at the addition of the 787 and the continuation of the A330 as an example.

Let me state again that I doubt that the airline itself has formed an opinion on the topic, the A330s from what we read are:
1. Relatively new,
2. Have enjoyed a recent refurbishment, and
3. The A332s have had an MTOW boost

To be clear, I am NOT offering any speculation of my own.

My initial response to all of this discussion was to a member who is very much advocating QF get rid of the 787s (because it fleet is so “small” compared to the 28 A330s) so they have a A330/A350/A380 fleet (because it looks nice on paper I guess? That’s the only reason that makes sense to me).

I personally don’t think most of the A330s are going anywhere anytime soon. My personal belief is that as JQ gets XLRs 788s will transfer to QF and replace the oldest A330s (the ones delivered in the early 2000s). The last tranche of A330s will remain and eventually get replaced by a mixture of A321XLRs/NMA (whether that be from Airbus or Boeing) and additional 789s (I don’t think QF will stop at 14 and never order any others again).

I don’t see much room for a A330neo fleet, especially as their 787s are GE not RR powered and QF management has been very positive about the 787 as a whole. A eventual long term A220/A32X/NMA (A322 or 797 or whatever-both of which would probably absolutely kill the A330neo and 787 on shorter routes)/787/A350 fleet seems more logical to me.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Wed Feb 23, 2022 10:01 pm

It’s odd that the ‘small’ 787 fleet is an issue but there is apparently a future for the (even smaller) A380 fleet. Just as I expect the A330 will be around for most of this decade, I expect the A380 will be as well, but A380 retirements will likely continue once the A350 is on property. The A380s are (basically) only kept around for LHR and LAX, with the former going to be replaced by A350s and the latter increasingly fragmented by nonstop JFK, ORD etc. Even without that fragmentation, pre-Covid MEL-LAX/SFO was 1x 380 and 1x 789, 2x 35K seems like a fairly obvious replacement. A hypothetical NMA might make an appearance in the 2030s, but by 2029 it looks like the fleet will be 321/789/35K. That’s a very efficient fleet.

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