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SYD330
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Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:44 am

Thought nobody talked about this so I decided to start a thread about QF's A330 replacement.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:48 am

A321, A35J, 789
 
SYD330
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:53 am

I think they're aging & old
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 10:13 am

SYD330 wrote:
I think they're aging & old


They were delivered from 2002/2013, the 300s from 2003/05. I would think the older 200s will go first, 2 are to become freighters.

Reality is they are still a good aircraft and efficient. The newer 200s will be around a while, some are having an MTOW bump to allow them to fly BNE-LAX/SFO.
 
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LoganTheBogan
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 10:47 am

They are relatively young, but when they do get replaced it will be 787 and A321XLR driven, with the modified Project Sunrise A350-1000s taking on the ultra-long-range flying. Two of their A330s are being converted into freighters and I could definitely see a couple more going that route too.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 10:56 am

SYD330 wrote:
I think they're aging & old


Not really. While I wish they hadn’t skimped so much on the A330-200 Economy refurb, the entire fleet went through refurbishment over recent years.

I suspect the A330s will be around for most of this decade, but the replacement will almost certainly be a mix of A321 and 787 (and A350 if they eventually order it). A321s would backfill most domestic routes, noting most have a combination of 737 and A330, and 787s will take over most of the international flying.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 11:13 am

I would have thought the older 200s to be replaced by A321s on domestic and regional international NZ etc, then the A333s being replaced by firmed up A35Js and some additional 787s with 787s doing most of the actual A333 flying and A35Js doing mainly ULH initially from 2024/25. The remaining A332s will carry on until towards the end of decade early next on a variety of routes, both long haul and short haul domestic.

Most of them aren’t overly old while some are relatively young though by the time they come to start replacing them in say 2-3 years time the oldest ones will be 22-23 which is about right by QF standards.
 
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JerseyFlyer
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 11:40 am

I was intrigued by the cargo conversions of 2 x -200s. I have a dim memory that QF specified these with relatively light floors, which caused some difficulties when fitting business class seating.

If that memory is correct, would that also impact the convertibility for cargo use?
 
jfk777
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 12:06 pm

The A330-300 were delivered around 2003-2005 & the -200 were more recent around 2014. The A330 are used widely on short one hour flights to Melbourne and longer ones to Bangkok, Singapore and Tokyo. A321 and 787-9 are the most likely replacements when they do get retired, that won't be for a long time though.
 
tealnz
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 12:22 pm

Won’t the JQ 788s be part of the story?
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 12:24 pm

jfk777 wrote:
The A330-300 were delivered around 2003-2005 & the -200 were more recent around 2014. The A330 are used widely on short one hour flights to Melbourne and longer ones to Bangkok, Singapore and Tokyo. A321 and 787-9 are the most likely replacements when they do get retired, that won't be for a long time though.

The A332s were delivered in two tranches: first in ~2002-2003 and second in ~2007-2012. Be careful looking at delivery dates to Qantas specifically: many were delivered to Jetstar first or transferred to them before making way back to QF fleet in the mid 2010s as JetStar took 788s.
 
evanb
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 12:49 pm

While everyone is noting that the QF A330 fleet is not old per se (age does vary substantially), the age is not a great metric given that the QF A330 fleet is a relatively high cycle fleet compared to most A330s fleets around the world. This is likely shortening maintenance intervals and increasing maintenance costs substantially as they get older. I'd be very surprised that QF keep them as long as they have historically kept many widebodies (i.e. more than 25 years). I'd look towards the example of QF's B763s. Some made it to 25 years, but many got retired before 20 years. One specifically only lasted 13 years (probably second D check). COVID-19 probably gave them a few more legs, but unless QF really start to nurse them, they're not going to make it to 25 years.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 12:50 pm

The A330ceo could be replaced by A330neo. No reason to go to the expense of replacing them with expensive 787.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 12:54 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
The A330ceo could be replaced by A330neo. No reason to go to the expense of replacing them with expensive 787.

That is assuming QF can get A330neos substantially cheaper than 787s, enough to outweigh the benefits of fleet simplification and overcome the disadvantages of adding a new engine type (QF/JQ 787s being GE powered).
 
oldannyboy
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 1:22 pm

As much as I'd love to see the 330-900 graced by the 'Roo (ok, the handicapped, legless QF variant!) , I don't think we will.... They'd probably be better off by going with the already established 787, and use the type on a mix of routes; with the A350 taking over ULH and the more premium routes.
Domestic and mid-haul will easily be handled by the A321. I also think it's fair to assume that wide body domestic usage will decrease somewhat significantly.
 
AirDO
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 2:18 pm

My hint is taking over the 788 from JQ and order more 789 to replace A330s.
 
MADPYRO
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 2:33 pm

evanb wrote:
While everyone is noting that the QF A330 fleet is not old per se (age does vary substantially), the age is not a great metric given that the QF A330 fleet is a relatively high cycle fleet compared to most A330s fleets around the world. This is likely shortening maintenance intervals and increasing maintenance costs substantially as they get older. I'd be very surprised that QF keep them as long as they have historically kept many widebodies (i.e. more than 25 years). I'd look towards the example of QF's B763s. Some made it to 25 years, but many got retired before 20 years. One specifically only lasted 13 years (probably second D check). COVID-19 probably gave them a few more legs, but unless QF really start to nurse them, they're not going to make it to 25 years.


The ones that lasted only 13 years were ex-BA birds. Those had done 10 years with BA already so they were technically older than QF's own metal
 
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afterburner
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 2:34 pm

I think the future of QF fleet will be A220, A32*neo, 787, and A350. The A330 will be replaced by both A321neo and 787, depending on the distances and how thick the routes are.
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 2:36 pm

oldannyboy wrote:
As much as I'd love to see the 330-900 graced by the 'Roo (ok, the handicapped, legless QF variant!) , I don't think we will.... They'd probably be better off by going with the already established 787, and use the type on a mix of routes; with the A350 taking over ULH and the more premium routes.
Domestic and mid-haul will easily be handled by the A321. I also think it's fair to assume that wide body domestic usage will decrease somewhat significantly.


The A330 is also established at Qantas. With 28 frames more than double the 11 787 there. Qantas has decided to buy A350, add the 12 A380 again in use and the 787 look like orphans.
What makes more sense, having a pilot pool you can use on the A330, A350 and A380, or have two pools, one for the A350, A380 and one for the 787. The unfilled orders in regards to the 787 are three, pointing to a fleet of 14, still half of the A330 fleet. The A330ceo moving out of the fleet in the near future come back as P2F. Part of the domestic usage of the A330 is to carry freight, a growing business.
So there could be serious rationale to concentrate a widebody fleet on a family of aircraft where you could use the same pilot pool. So out with the 787 and in with the A330neo/A350.

In regards to service, Qantas does not only service it's own A330, but also the A330MRTT of the RAAF.

I know Qantas does use 737-800, 75 frames. But Qantas does not have the 737MAX on order, but rather A321neo, 64 of them. Those pilots move therefor also over to Airbus frames.
 
MCOflyer
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 6:12 pm

I agree with the airbus A321XLR. However, if they can get 330 Neos at a discounted price from Airbus, that could be a possibility. I have learned with Qantas, you never rule anything out until the announcement.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 6:20 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
As much as I'd love to see the 330-900 graced by the 'Roo (ok, the handicapped, legless QF variant!) , I don't think we will.... They'd probably be better off by going with the already established 787, and use the type on a mix of routes; with the A350 taking over ULH and the more premium routes.
Domestic and mid-haul will easily be handled by the A321. I also think it's fair to assume that wide body domestic usage will decrease somewhat significantly.


The A330 is also established at Qantas. With 28 frames more than double the 11 787 there. Qantas has decided to buy A350, add the 12 A380 again in use and the 787 look like orphans.
What makes more sense, having a pilot pool you can use on the A330, A350 and A380, or have two pools, one for the A350, A380 and one for the 787. The unfilled orders in regards to the 787 are three, pointing to a fleet of 14, still half of the A330 fleet. The A330ceo moving out of the fleet in the near future come back as P2F. Part of the domestic usage of the A330 is to carry freight, a growing business.
So there could be serious rationale to concentrate a widebody fleet on a family of aircraft where you could use the same pilot pool. So out with the 787 and in with the A330neo/A350.

In regards to service, Qantas does not only service it's own A330, but also the A330MRTT of the RAAF.

I know Qantas does use 737-800, 75 frames. But Qantas does not have the 737MAX on order, but rather A321neo, 64 of them. Those pilots move therefor also over to Airbus frames.

QF A380 pilots are separate from A330 pilots. I think the chances of a single A330/A350/A380 pilot group is nil, especially with how conservative Australia’s CASA can be (eg look how long ETOPs was restricted by Australia compared to other countries). A single A350/A380 pool is also unlikely.

It makes absolutely zero sense to dump new 787s for a single A330/A350 pilot pool. The savings will never be enough to make up for the cost of buying ~15+ (don’t forget JQ) additional new planes to replace new ones you already have.
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 7:24 pm

JerseyFlyer wrote:
I was intrigued by the cargo conversions of 2 x -200s. I have a dim memory that QF specified these with relatively light floors, which caused some difficulties when fitting business class seating.

If that memory is correct, would that also impact the convertibility for cargo use?


Floors are replaced as part of the conversion. That being said it is not something I ever understood as seats are not attached to the floors, they are attached to seat tracks.

evanb wrote:
One specifically only lasted 13 years (probably second D check). COVID-19 probably gave them a few more legs, but unless QF really start to nurse them, they're not going to make it to 25 years.


A330s don’t have D checks, it’s known as a maintenance steering group 3 (MSG-3) aircraft.

Polot wrote:
QF A380 pilots are separate from A330 pilots. I think the chances of a single A330/A350/A380 pilot group is nil, especially with how conservative Australia’s CASA can be (eg look how long ETOPs was restricted by Australia compared to other countries). A single A350/A380 pool is also unlikely.


CASA will issue anyone with an A330 type rating on their licence with an A330/A350, the same as they did for the 787. I do not think the real limiting factor is CASA it’s the EBA, as pay in QF is by weight, A380 is higher than A330. I can see them trying to slip in the A350 as the same rate as the A330 which is lower than what it should be.
 
PhilMcCrackin
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 7:25 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
As much as I'd love to see the 330-900 graced by the 'Roo (ok, the handicapped, legless QF variant!) , I don't think we will.... They'd probably be better off by going with the already established 787, and use the type on a mix of routes; with the A350 taking over ULH and the more premium routes.
Domestic and mid-haul will easily be handled by the A321. I also think it's fair to assume that wide body domestic usage will decrease somewhat significantly.


The A330 is also established at Qantas. With 28 frames more than double the 11 787 there. Qantas has decided to buy A350, add the 12 A380 again in use and the 787 look like orphans.
What makes more sense, having a pilot pool you can use on the A330, A350 and A380, or have two pools, one for the A350, A380 and one for the 787. The unfilled orders in regards to the 787 are three, pointing to a fleet of 14, still half of the A330 fleet. The A330ceo moving out of the fleet in the near future come back as P2F. Part of the domestic usage of the A330 is to carry freight, a growing business.
So there could be serious rationale to concentrate a widebody fleet on a family of aircraft where you could use the same pilot pool. So out with the 787 and in with the A330neo/A350.

In regards to service, Qantas does not only service it's own A330, but also the A330MRTT of the RAAF.

I know Qantas does use 737-800, 75 frames. But Qantas does not have the 737MAX on order, but rather A321neo, 64 of them. Those pilots move therefor also over to Airbus frames.


The practical reality is you would never see this happen. Qantas, like most if not all blue chip airlines, has designated bid lines for each type. You won't see someone flying an A350 one day and flying an A380 the next, even if their cockpits do have commonalities, which renders your point moot here.

QF adores the 787, so I think it's rather ignorant to discount the notion of a follow up order. As someone already said, the replacement for the A330, whenever this happens, is likely more 787s or the A350s, assuming Sunrise becomes a reality. And possibly A321s on the low end.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 7:42 pm

zeke wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
I was intrigued by the cargo conversions of 2 x -200s. I have a dim memory that QF specified these with relatively light floors, which caused some difficulties when fitting business class seating.

If that memory is correct, would that also impact the convertibility for cargo use?


Floors are replaced as part of the conversion. That being said it is not something I ever understood as seats are not attached to the floors, they are attached to seat tracks.

Which are attached to the floor…

Seat tracks are just there to act as anchor points for the seats. The floor still needs to support their weight, because that is where the seat track is distributing the weight of the seats attached to it to.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 8:24 pm

tealnz wrote:
Won’t the JQ 788s be part of the story?


Yes I would think so, given the range of the 788 wouldn’t they refit with a long haul crew rest? These could be good on routes ex BNE to LAX/SFO?
 
WayexTDI
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 8:37 pm

Polot wrote:
zeke wrote:
JerseyFlyer wrote:
I was intrigued by the cargo conversions of 2 x -200s. I have a dim memory that QF specified these with relatively light floors, which caused some difficulties when fitting business class seating.

If that memory is correct, would that also impact the convertibility for cargo use?


Floors are replaced as part of the conversion. That being said it is not something I ever understood as seats are not attached to the floors, they are attached to seat tracks.

Which are attached to the floor…

Seat tracks are just there to act as anchor points for the seats. The floor still needs to support their weight, because that is where the seat track is distributing the weight of the seats attached to it to.

Is it that they specified "light" floors? Or were those floors the ones rated at 9G before it became standard to be rated at 16G?
Installing seats rated at 16G on older aircraft whose floors were rated at 9G have created headaches for the seat OEMs.
 
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MrHMSH
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 8:42 pm

A321neos and/or XLRs can cover any domestic and NZ flying, so that's a pretty safe bet for at least some A330 flying, for dense SE Asia (SIN/BKK) and China/Japan I'd expect 787s. With the 787s on property on the very long flights I'd expect a top-up, the only other alternative (order A350 and reconfigure 787s) seems unlikely. A350s should be incoming with all being well, which will ease the pressure on QF's fairly small 787 fleet, but that's a way away.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 8:46 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
As much as I'd love to see the 330-900 graced by the 'Roo (ok, the handicapped, legless QF variant!) , I don't think we will.... They'd probably be better off by going with the already established 787, and use the type on a mix of routes; with the A350 taking over ULH and the more premium routes.
Domestic and mid-haul will easily be handled by the A321. I also think it's fair to assume that wide body domestic usage will decrease somewhat significantly.


The A330 is also established at Qantas. With 28 frames more than double the 11 787 there. Qantas has decided to buy A350, add the 12 A380 again in use and the 787 look like orphans.
What makes more sense, having a pilot pool you can use on the A330, A350 and A380, or have two pools, one for the A350, A380 and one for the 787. The unfilled orders in regards to the 787 are three, pointing to a fleet of 14, still half of the A330 fleet. The A330ceo moving out of the fleet in the near future come back as P2F. Part of the domestic usage of the A330 is to carry freight, a growing business.
So there could be serious rationale to concentrate a widebody fleet on a family of aircraft where you could use the same pilot pool. So out with the 787 and in with the A330neo/A350.

In regards to service, Qantas does not only service it's own A330, but also the A330MRTT of the RAAF.

I know Qantas does use 737-800, 75 frames. But Qantas does not have the 737MAX on order, but rather A321neo, 64 of them. Those pilots move therefor also over to Airbus frames.


The A330 dates back to 2002 with the last delivered in 2014, they will be around a while but the A330NEO really I can’t see it. QF seem to be after new technology 787/350/320NEO/220.

Whereas the 787 entered QF in 2017, earlier at JQ.

QF over time could have a fleet of 30 A35J for ULH and trunk routes replacing A380s. They could also add the 359 or 781 with different configurations depending on demand plus a reasonably 789 fleet and some ex JQ 788s they could have easily 30-40 787s. It will be interesting to see, or it could be 789/35J only.

The A330 was initially used on the SYD/MEL/BNE triangle as they saw a need for a 300 seater, the 763 was around 250 domestically, the problem was the first 4 A332 and first 3 A333 around 350 seats were inefficient as they took to long to turn around on those short flights, the early A332 moved to JQ, the A333s were converted to international spec, and they went back to 763s more on domestic with 743s being used to PER regularly for the last 4-5 years.

The 738 will be replaced by A321 over a decade so pilots will be trained as 737s retire and A321s come in.
 
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CarlosSi
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:01 pm

There’s a direct replacement easily available ;) … the neo?

Or just go all 787.
I guess the point is it’s mostly mid range high capacity eh?
 
mjoelnir
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:15 pm

ZK-NBT wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
As much as I'd love to see the 330-900 graced by the 'Roo (ok, the handicapped, legless QF variant!) , I don't think we will.... They'd probably be better off by going with the already established 787, and use the type on a mix of routes; with the A350 taking over ULH and the more premium routes.
Domestic and mid-haul will easily be handled by the A321. I also think it's fair to assume that wide body domestic usage will decrease somewhat significantly.


The A330 is also established at Qantas. With 28 frames more than double the 11 787 there. Qantas has decided to buy A350, add the 12 A380 again in use and the 787 look like orphans.
What makes more sense, having a pilot pool you can use on the A330, A350 and A380, or have two pools, one for the A350, A380 and one for the 787. The unfilled orders in regards to the 787 are three, pointing to a fleet of 14, still half of the A330 fleet. The A330ceo moving out of the fleet in the near future come back as P2F. Part of the domestic usage of the A330 is to carry freight, a growing business.
So there could be serious rationale to concentrate a widebody fleet on a family of aircraft where you could use the same pilot pool. So out with the 787 and in with the A330neo/A350.

In regards to service, Qantas does not only service it's own A330, but also the A330MRTT of the RAAF.

I know Qantas does use 737-800, 75 frames. But Qantas does not have the 737MAX on order, but rather A321neo, 64 of them. Those pilots move therefor also over to Airbus frames.


The A330 dates back to 2002 with the last delivered in 2014, they will be around a while but the A330NEO really I can’t see it. QF seem to be after new technology 787/350/320NEO/220.

Whereas the 787 entered QF in 2017, earlier at JQ.

QF over time could have a fleet of 30 A35J for ULH and trunk routes replacing A380s. They could also add the 359 or 781 with different configurations depending on demand plus a reasonably 789 fleet and some ex JQ 788s they could have easily 30-40 787s. It will be interesting to see, or it could be 789/35J only.

The A330 was initially used on the SYD/MEL/BNE triangle as they saw a need for a 300 seater, the 763 was around 250 domestically, the problem was the first 4 A332 and first 3 A333 around 350 seats were inefficient as they took to long to turn around on those short flights, the early A332 moved to JQ, the A333s were converted to international spec, and they went back to 763s more on domestic with 743s being used to PER regularly for the last 4-5 years.

The 738 will be replaced by A321 over a decade so pilots will be trained as 737s retire and A321s come in.


It is just that all the 767 are retired, the last around 2014, and the A330 is used on domestic flights, especially when cargo has to be moved.

Qantas had once in a while 65 787 on order, when the 787 sugar rush was running wild. Jetstar got 11 787-8 and Qantas flies 11 787-9, with 3 still on order. Overall rather small compared to the A330 fleet. When the traffic gets growing again, the 787 could move all over to Jetstar. All Jetstar's A330 moved around 2014 to Qantas.
 
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zeke
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:16 pm

Polot wrote:
Which are attached to the floor…


Image

Image

Typically the floor is comprised of honeycomb panels, the tracks are not attached to them, it is more likely the panel is attached to the track. Typically tracks have a C or hat channel under them connecting to the frames.
 
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Polot
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:33 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
Jetstar got 11 787-8 and Qantas flies 11 787-9, with 3 still on order. Overall rather small compared to the A330 fleet.

That’s only 3 frames less than the number of A330s in the QF group. QF has plenty of 787 options and purchase rights, and QF management has been very positive about the plane. I’m not sure why you are acting like they are done ordering it. QF has shifted from large flashy orders like at time of initial 787 purchase to smaller orders being placed to get planes as needed. This applies equally to QF’s A350 orders when eventually placed.

JetStar doesn’t need 14 more 789s on top of their 788s. If you do that then that growth has to come from somewhere, and that somewhere would be from QF (ie they will need fewer planes to replace the A330s because JQ is taking over more flying).
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:38 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

The A330 is also established at Qantas. With 28 frames more than double the 11 787 there. Qantas has decided to buy A350, add the 12 A380 again in use and the 787 look like orphans.
What makes more sense, having a pilot pool you can use on the A330, A350 and A380, or have two pools, one for the A350, A380 and one for the 787. The unfilled orders in regards to the 787 are three, pointing to a fleet of 14, still half of the A330 fleet. The A330ceo moving out of the fleet in the near future come back as P2F. Part of the domestic usage of the A330 is to carry freight, a growing business.
So there could be serious rationale to concentrate a widebody fleet on a family of aircraft where you could use the same pilot pool. So out with the 787 and in with the A330neo/A350.

In regards to service, Qantas does not only service it's own A330, but also the A330MRTT of the RAAF.

I know Qantas does use 737-800, 75 frames. But Qantas does not have the 737MAX on order, but rather A321neo, 64 of them. Those pilots move therefor also over to Airbus frames.


The A330 dates back to 2002 with the last delivered in 2014, they will be around a while but the A330NEO really I can’t see it. QF seem to be after new technology 787/350/320NEO/220.

Whereas the 787 entered QF in 2017, earlier at JQ.

QF over time could have a fleet of 30 A35J for ULH and trunk routes replacing A380s. They could also add the 359 or 781 with different configurations depending on demand plus a reasonably 789 fleet and some ex JQ 788s they could have easily 30-40 787s. It will be interesting to see, or it could be 789/35J only.

The A330 was initially used on the SYD/MEL/BNE triangle as they saw a need for a 300 seater, the 763 was around 250 domestically, the problem was the first 4 A332 and first 3 A333 around 350 seats were inefficient as they took to long to turn around on those short flights, the early A332 moved to JQ, the A333s were converted to international spec, and they went back to 763s more on domestic with 743s being used to PER regularly for the last 4-5 years.

The 738 will be replaced by A321 over a decade so pilots will be trained as 737s retire and A321s come in.


It is just that all the 767 are retired, the last around 2014, and the A330 is used on domestic flights, especially when cargo has to be moved.

Qantas had once in a while 65 787 on order, when the 787 sugar rush was running wild. Jetstar got 11 787-8 and Qantas flies 11 787-9, with 3 still on order. Overall rather small compared to the A330 fleet. When the traffic gets growing again, the 787 could move all over to Jetstar. All Jetstar's A330 moved around 2014 to Qantas.


Yes the 767 was a great and very versatile aircraft for QF and had the ability to a carry a significant amount of freight on the shorter sectors. The A330s were initially used domestically however as QF saw a need for a 300 seater on SYD/MEL/BNE triangle.

QF once had 115 787s on order or option, they still have plenty of options they can exercise, TBH JQ will probably retain a few 788s long term but alot of their flying will go to A321LR to DPS particularly. The initial plan was QF would get the JQ 788s and JQ get the new 789s when they arrived, I think that ship has sailed, I don't see JQ getting more 787s.

QF at its peak had 30 A330s, the 789 only arrived at QF in 2017, 2013 at JQ? The 787 fleet will grow as the A330 fleet shrinks over the next 5-10 years. Plus A350s will be firmed up for Project sunrise initially and then as an A380 replacement towards the late 2020s early 2030s.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:42 pm

CarlosSi wrote:
There’s a direct replacement easily available ;) … the neo?

Or just go all 787.
I guess the point is it’s mostly mid range high capacity eh?


QF want new technology, the A330 is a great plane but they will go 787/350 for long haul, 2 types capable of flying every mission, A35J on ULH SYD/MEL-LHR/JFK and a few others plus A380 replacement on SYD/MEL-LAX/SIN-LHR possibly SYD-DFW.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:50 pm

More a general QF fleet network thought. Will QF do CDG/FRA/ from SYD non stop? And will an A359 without F say 280 seats J, W, Y be able to do SYD-CDG/FRA non stop or will an A35J be needed? Or will those routes go from PER? The A359 could be used into Asia without F and with W which none of the A330s have either F or W. Or could there also be a people moving 781 with 320-330 seats J, Y only, a little larger than the A333. Then what for the 789s? 789s ex BNE more to the US or premium routes with less demand than a proposed A359? Interesting.
 
chonetsao
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 9:50 pm

In my little ideal world, Qantas should take over the JQ B788 and use them on domestic triangle run and replace the A332. More B789s are needed to replace the A333. But I believe the younger A333 will be around for a while. And some Asian routes like Bangkok/Phuket/Singapore plus NZ route like AKL do work well with A333.

Maybe JQ should take back the A332 for its Japan routes. Who knows. I always thought things move pretty slow down under. The saga or Project sunrise is turning into Project sunset and yet we still don't know what and when Qantas will place its order.

I would not be surprised to see any outcome with QF fleet development. QF fleet could be the same 5 years later or a decade later. Or miracle do happen and we would see some shining B789 and A350s coming before 2030. I don't have high hope after watching how Qantas fleet changes in last 20 years. It will change, but slowly, and takes it time, with smaller steps. The only exciting thing happened to Qantas in last 20 years is the A380 and then subsequently B789 flying non-stop PER-LHR.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 10:01 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:

The A330 is also established at Qantas. With 28 frames more than double the 11 787 there. Qantas has decided to buy A350, add the 12 A380 again in use and the 787 look like orphans.
What makes more sense, having a pilot pool you can use on the A330, A350 and A380, or have two pools, one for the A350, A380 and one for the 787. The unfilled orders in regards to the 787 are three, pointing to a fleet of 14, still half of the A330 fleet. The A330ceo moving out of the fleet in the near future come back as P2F. Part of the domestic usage of the A330 is to carry freight, a growing business.
So there could be serious rationale to concentrate a widebody fleet on a family of aircraft where you could use the same pilot pool. So out with the 787 and in with the A330neo/A350.

In regards to service, Qantas does not only service it's own A330, but also the A330MRTT of the RAAF.

I know Qantas does use 737-800, 75 frames. But Qantas does not have the 737MAX on order, but rather A321neo, 64 of them. Those pilots move therefor also over to Airbus frames.


The A330 dates back to 2002 with the last delivered in 2014, they will be around a while but the A330NEO really I can’t see it. QF seem to be after new technology 787/350/320NEO/220.

Whereas the 787 entered QF in 2017, earlier at JQ.

QF over time could have a fleet of 30 A35J for ULH and trunk routes replacing A380s. They could also add the 359 or 781 with different configurations depending on demand plus a reasonably 789 fleet and some ex JQ 788s they could have easily 30-40 787s. It will be interesting to see, or it could be 789/35J only.

The A330 was initially used on the SYD/MEL/BNE triangle as they saw a need for a 300 seater, the 763 was around 250 domestically, the problem was the first 4 A332 and first 3 A333 around 350 seats were inefficient as they took to long to turn around on those short flights, the early A332 moved to JQ, the A333s were converted to international spec, and they went back to 763s more on domestic with 743s being used to PER regularly for the last 4-5 years.

The 738 will be replaced by A321 over a decade so pilots will be trained as 737s retire and A321s come in.


It is just that all the 767 are retired, the last around 2014, and the A330 is used on domestic flights, especially when cargo has to be moved.

Qantas had once in a while 65 787 on order, when the 787 sugar rush was running wild. Jetstar got 11 787-8 and Qantas flies 11 787-9, with 3 still on order. Overall rather small compared to the A330 fleet. When the traffic gets growing again, the 787 could move all over to Jetstar. All Jetstar's A330 moved around 2014 to Qantas.


There are several misnomers in your thinking. First, you described the 787 as ‘expensive’ compared to the A330neo. I doubt Qantas can order an A330 today for less than the their gazillion 787 options from 2007.

Second, you keep saying they have 11+3. Technically true, but misses the bigger picture. They have those options on hand and have been converting them as they need them. Even the current 14 were spread over multiple orders

You talk about domestic cargo, but that’s actually less relevant than in the past. The A330s did not replace the 767s on domestic routes one-for-one. The 767 was ideal for Qantas domestic as they were operated with 40 minute turns. The A330 requires an hour minimum. It’s also heavier, which largely negates the fuel saving on short routes such as SYD-MEL. The bulk of the 767 flying was replaced by 737s, not A330s. SYD-MEL was 4x hour with 737s before Covid. More relevantly to cargo, Qantas have really grown their dedicated cargo fleet over the last decade which has taken more freight off passenger flights. Especially with the A321 P2F and A330 P2F, this will only continue to grow. Really the A321 is perfectly placed to replace the combined capacity of 737 and A330 on many routes.

You’ve already been told that A330/50/80 are separate pilots groups at Qantas, so no value from crew efficiencies. Other than adding an extra type, the A330neo doesn’t really provide much to them.

As for your comment about Jetstar taking all of the 787s, that’s almost laughable. Jetstar already struggled to use all 11 before Covid, starting and stopping random markets trying to find something that sticks. They have no hope of finding profitable flying with 25 frames. As the key Jetstar international markets (DPS, HKT, Queensland-Japan) are within range of their incoming A321s, it’s much more likely that the 787s will be removed from their fleet, be it to mainline or sold.
 
MIflyer12
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 10:24 pm

mjoelnir wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
As much as I'd love to see the 330-900 graced by the 'Roo (ok, the handicapped, legless QF variant!) , I don't think we will.... They'd probably be better off by going with the already established 787, and use the type on a mix of routes; with the A350 taking over ULH and the more premium routes.
Domestic and mid-haul will easily be handled by the A321. I also think it's fair to assume that wide body domestic usage will decrease somewhat significantly.


The A330 is also established at Qantas.


Or, they can buy 787s (for a price differential unknown to you) and get the range for SYD-LAX/SFO/SEA/YVR and lots of other routes throughout the QF system.
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Fri Feb 18, 2022 10:49 pm

MIflyer12 wrote:
mjoelnir wrote:
oldannyboy wrote:
As much as I'd love to see the 330-900 graced by the 'Roo (ok, the handicapped, legless QF variant!) , I don't think we will.... They'd probably be better off by going with the already established 787, and use the type on a mix of routes; with the A350 taking over ULH and the more premium routes.
Domestic and mid-haul will easily be handled by the A321. I also think it's fair to assume that wide body domestic usage will decrease somewhat significantly.


The A330 is also established at Qantas.


Or, they can buy 787s (for a price differential unknown to you) and get the range for SYD-LAX/SFO/SEA/YVR and lots of other routes throughout the QF system.


On that the 339 has 744 range so could fly those routes you mention. However that isn’t really that relevant to the discussion as the chances I think of QF getting A330NEOs at all let alone for pacific crossing is very low to zero chance on pacific routes.
 
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Devilfish
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Sat Feb 19, 2022 12:00 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
Reality is they are still a good aircraft and efficient. The newer 200s will be around a while, some are having an MTOW bump to allow them to fly BNE-LAX/SFO.

ZK-NBT wrote:
However that isn’t really that relevant to the discussion as the chances I think of QF getting A330NEOs at all let alone for pacific crossing is very low to zero chance on pacific routes.

Is it too farfetched for QF to consider the A330-800 (newly certified 251 tonner aside) for this mission given the same crew pool and savings on the mx liabilities of the older A332's? :scratchchin:

https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 09.article
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Sat Feb 19, 2022 3:21 am

Devilfish wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Reality is they are still a good aircraft and efficient. The newer 200s will be around a while, some are having an MTOW bump to allow them to fly BNE-LAX/SFO.

ZK-NBT wrote:
However that isn’t really that relevant to the discussion as the chances I think of QF getting A330NEOs at all let alone for pacific crossing is very low to zero chance on pacific routes.

Is it too farfetched for QF to consider the A330-800 (newly certified 251 tonner aside) for this mission given the same crew pool and savings on the mx liabilities of the older A332's? :scratchchin:

https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 09.article


For what mission? BNE-US? It is pretty far fetched that they would get A338s given the A339 could do this, the A332 can do it with a MTOW bump but restricted on the return, it will likely be back to 789s when the time comes for the A332s to retire by which time the 789 fleet will have grown. Short answer I can’t see why QF would order the A330NEO.
 
smi0006
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Sat Feb 19, 2022 6:54 am

I think only wild card here is 788 at JQ - sell them, or send to QF? I hope QF - but who knows. 321 seems
Better fit at JQ.

QF have loads of purchase rights for 787s at a steeply discounted launch rate. I could see a few more 789 for longhaul, remember QF was moving away from hubs and a lot more point to point - MEL-SFO, BNE-SFO/ORD - QF needs something for longer thinner longhaul, they could be cycled through domestic in the peak. LHR-PER-MEL-SFO, and MEL-LAX-BNE-MEL-SFO lots of freight movement, with 321 in peak for pax. They can easily mix Asian flying in there too - much easier than they could with the 744 which were too big, and 330 that could make US from SYD/MEL.

QF wants flexibility, and the 321/789/350K offer this.

My only thought is do QF go for 787-10 for heavier Asian routes - SIN, (HKG if it recovers), HND (not sure where else) or abuse the 380 and 350K on these routes between ULH?
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Sat Feb 19, 2022 7:01 am

Devilfish wrote:
ZK-NBT wrote:
Reality is they are still a good aircraft and efficient. The newer 200s will be around a while, some are having an MTOW bump to allow them to fly BNE-LAX/SFO.

ZK-NBT wrote:
However that isn’t really that relevant to the discussion as the chances I think of QF getting A330NEOs at all let alone for pacific crossing is very low to zero chance on pacific routes.

Is it too farfetched for QF to consider the A330-800 (newly certified 251 tonner aside) for this mission given the same crew pool and savings on the mx liabilities of the older A332's? :scratchchin:

https://www.flightglobal.com/air-transp ... 09.article


It is far fetched, yes. This is basically the mission of the 787. The recent A330 MTOW bump is something of an afterthought, and was never so much as mentioned as a hypothetical before Covid. Now they are short 3 787s that Boeing is unable to deliver, have retired the 747 fleet, and were originally were not planning on returning the A380s to service for another 6-12 months. Qantas were short on long haul aircraft, and bumping MTOW was a relative cheap and quick fix. That doesn’t mean that the 787 won’t be the backbone of the future long haul fleet.
 
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RyanairGuru
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Sat Feb 19, 2022 7:05 am

smi0006 wrote:
I think only wild card here is 788 at JQ - sell them, or send to QF? I hope QF - but who knows. 321 seems
Better fit at JQ.

QF have loads of purchase rights for 787s at a steeply discounted launch rate. I could see a few more 789 for longhaul, remember QF was moving away from hubs and a lot more point to point - MEL-SFO, BNE-SFO/ORD - QF needs something for longer thinner longhaul, they could be cycled through domestic in the peak. LHR-PER-MEL-SFO, and MEL-LAX-BNE-MEL-SFO lots of freight movement, with 321 in peak for pax. They can easily mix Asian flying in there too - much easier than they could with the 744 which were too big, and 330 that could make US from SYD/MEL.

QF wants flexibility, and the 321/789/350K offer this.

My only thought is do QF go for 787-10 for heavier Asian routes - SIN, (HKG if it recovers), HND (not sure where else) or abuse the 380 and 350K on these routes between ULH?


To answer your last question, I think the A35K will be used for SIN, HKG, HND. Admittedly this was before Covid, but Qantas specifically talked about using the frames on relatively short trips to HKG and SIN between ULH turns, and this was one factor that favoured the A350, which is lighter and not so heavily optimised as a ULH aircraft, compared to the 77X
 
ZK-NBT
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Sat Feb 19, 2022 7:23 am

RyanairGuru wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
I think only wild card here is 788 at JQ - sell them, or send to QF? I hope QF - but who knows. 321 seems
Better fit at JQ.

QF have loads of purchase rights for 787s at a steeply discounted launch rate. I could see a few more 789 for longhaul, remember QF was moving away from hubs and a lot more point to point - MEL-SFO, BNE-SFO/ORD - QF needs something for longer thinner longhaul, they could be cycled through domestic in the peak. LHR-PER-MEL-SFO, and MEL-LAX-BNE-MEL-SFO lots of freight movement, with 321 in peak for pax. They can easily mix Asian flying in there too - much easier than they could with the 744 which were too big, and 330 that could make US from SYD/MEL.

QF wants flexibility, and the 321/789/350K offer this.

My only thought is do QF go for 787-10 for heavier Asian routes - SIN, (HKG if it recovers), HND (not sure where else) or abuse the 380 and 350K on these routes between ULH?


To answer your last question, I think the A35K will be used for SIN, HKG, HND. Admittedly this was before Covid, but Qantas specifically talked about using the frames on relatively short trips to HKG and SIN between ULH turns, and this was one factor that favoured the A350, which is lighter and not so heavily optimised as a ULH aircraft, compared to the 77X


The thing is HND didn’t have F, though QF wanted to send the A380 there pre covid, not to say they would have sold F, MEL-SIN had an A380, not sure that will return, SYD-HKG had an A380 for a while but not for a couple of years pre covid. Interesting, I just wonder if there is room for a 781 as a fairly direct A333 replacement into Asia HNL with J, Y, or do QF want aircraft in the 351/789 that can do all routes? But not the right configuration for all routes. QF did however say they would use the A351 into Asia between ULH.
 
NZ321
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Sat Feb 19, 2022 9:30 am

evanb wrote:
While everyone is noting that the QF A330 fleet is not old per se (age does vary substantially), the age is not a great metric given that the QF A330 fleet is a relatively high cycle fleet compared to most A330s fleets around the world. This is likely shortening maintenance intervals and increasing maintenance costs substantially as they get older. I'd be very surprised that QF keep them as long as they have historically kept many widebodies (i.e. more than 25 years). I'd look towards the example of QF's B763s. Some made it to 25 years, but many got retired before 20 years. One specifically only lasted 13 years (probably second D check). COVID-19 probably gave them a few more legs, but unless QF really start to nurse them, they're not going to make it to 25 years.


Point well made.
 
NZ321
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Sat Feb 19, 2022 9:33 am

ZK-NBT wrote:
RyanairGuru wrote:
smi0006 wrote:
I think only wild card here is 788 at JQ - sell them, or send to QF? I hope QF - but who knows. 321 seems
Better fit at JQ.

QF have loads of purchase rights for 787s at a steeply discounted launch rate. I could see a few more 789 for longhaul, remember QF was moving away from hubs and a lot more point to point - MEL-SFO, BNE-SFO/ORD - QF needs something for longer thinner longhaul, they could be cycled through domestic in the peak. LHR-PER-MEL-SFO, and MEL-LAX-BNE-MEL-SFO lots of freight movement, with 321 in peak for pax. They can easily mix Asian flying in there too - much easier than they could with the 744 which were too big, and 330 that could make US from SYD/MEL.

QF wants flexibility, and the 321/789/350K offer this.

My only thought is do QF go for 787-10 for heavier Asian routes - SIN, (HKG if it recovers), HND (not sure where else) or abuse the 380 and 350K on these routes between ULH?


To answer your last question, I think the A35K will be used for SIN, HKG, HND. Admittedly this was before Covid, but Qantas specifically talked about using the frames on relatively short trips to HKG and SIN between ULH turns, and this was one factor that favoured the A350, which is lighter and not so heavily optimised as a ULH aircraft, compared to the 77X


The thing is HND didn’t have F, though QF wanted to send the A380 there pre covid, not to say they would have sold F, MEL-SIN had an A380, not sure that will return, SYD-HKG had an A380 for a while but not for a couple of years pre covid. Interesting, I just wonder if there is room for a 781 as a fairly direct A333 replacement into Asia HNL with J, Y, or do QF want aircraft in the 351/789 that can do all routes? But not the right configuration for all routes. QF did however say they would use the A351 into Asia between ULH.


A380 to HND; forget it. No A380s to HND! A35K... who says? No orders in place yet. Let's wait and see what unfolds...
 
Gemuser
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Sat Feb 19, 2022 9:59 am

evanb wrote:
While everyone is noting that the QF A330 fleet is not old per se (age does vary substantially), the age is not a great metric given that the QF A330 fleet is a relatively high cycle fleet compared to most A330s fleets around the world.

Do you have a source for this? I find it hard to accept, QF's aircraft were always high hours, low cycles. Why has it changed?

Gemuser
 
majano
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Sat Feb 19, 2022 10:04 am

Isn't it amazing how many armchair CEOs on A-net are fully convinced of what airframe will replace the A330 which are mainly still young, and have recently been refurbished? Any dissenting view is dismissed with expressions such as: "nil chance"; "practical reality is that you will never see this happen"; "there are several misnomers in your thinking" etc. etc. All this group concerted attack for a divergent view on something no-one has certainty over, not even the airline...

The truth is that it could be the A330neo as much as the 787, A321 and A350 which replace the A330 at Qantas. This thing of pretending to be better speculators is overplayed a lot here. When done in concert as displayed here it is ugly.
 
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zkojq
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Re: Qantas A330 Replacement

Sat Feb 19, 2022 10:08 am

The JQ 787s to QF arrangement has been a rumour that's been alive since six months or so after the first JQ 787 was delivered. While it's possible, I'm not sure why it still gets talked about as if it's something that A) is going to happen and B) is something to be imminently announced.

As it stands, the A330s are a profitable, efficient and reliable workhorse for Qantas and one that's very popular with passengers. The -300s in particular have been the backbone of the long haul fleet throughout the pandemic. Other than a handful of conversions to freighters (and I suspect there'll be more of those to come), it seems very unlikely for them to leave the fleet before the end of the decade. Could easily be around to the middle of next decade if needed. The BNE maintenance base has been taking very good care of them. It was mentioned to me a few years ago just how much better condition QF's older A330s were in compared to those of a third party customer who used to get heavy maintenance done at BNE (with most of their A330s being 10+ years newer).

As it stands though, the airline is sitting on plenty of 787 options and we can expect them to be exercised bit by bit as they get close to expiry. It should be noted that the deals have a price inflator attached to them, so any super hot pricing agreed to in 2007 will be long gone 15 years later.

I'm not sure why people would try to pretend that the A330neo doesn't have the range to make it from Australia to the US Mainland. As I speak VH-EBP is airborne and is most of the way through a Melbourne to Los Angeles service.

As for the A330s, their replacement will be for the most part a mix of A321neos and 787-9. As mentioned earlier in the thread, it's intended that A350-1000ULRs will do some Asia flying between Ultra Long Haul sectors, so I guess that's a partial replacement too.

ZK-NBT wrote:
QF once had 115 787s on order or option


:checkmark: It's honestly ridiculous just how bullish previous management was when it came to widebody orders. Even if you allocate a handful of 787s each to Jetstar Asia, Jetstar Pacific (since divested), Jetstar Japan, Jetstar HK (never launched) and Jetstar NZ (same AOC as Jetstar OZ) I still fail to see how even an optimistic forecast can suggest that the QF Group could use anywhere close to 115 787s.

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