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qf789
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Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 1:28 am

Welcome to Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread.

Please add your comments below however leave the political comments to the Non-Aviation thread, linked below

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1470285&p=23194801#p23194801

For News and Reference thread (Civil Aviation) refer to

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1470765&p=23194809#p23194809

News and Reference Thread (Non-Aviation)

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=1470763
 
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chunhimlai
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:29 am

how far SU operation affected?
 
sea13
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:51 am

With DL ending their codeshare agreement with SU, it’ll be interesting to see if SkyTeam drops SU completely from the alliance. Also you have to wonder if S7 will stay in OneWorld.
 
geomap
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 7:17 am

Unconfirmed reports the world’s only AN-225 has been destroyed following hostilities at Hostomel airport. The aircraft was situated at the airport at the time of the attack. There are other Antonov aircraft also located there. https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/199 ... l-airport/

If true, a real loss. I had a hope to see it one day.

This guy has some interesting thoughts: https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/14 ... 9610150921

"We are hearing that in addition to the world's only An-225, several An-124s were also destroyed in the conflict already. "
"Flexport's research team is tracking down all the remaining An-124s in the world to determine their location and status but it seems only a matter of weeks before even the ones not in Ukraine presently are removed from service for maintenance / safety reasons."

2 Questions - Is he correct? Will the loss of these aircraft (if verified) negatively impact the freight market? Could the damage to the Anotov airport facilities affect spares and maintenence for the remainder AN124s that are still flying?

Geomap
 
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Kiwings
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:12 am

With sanctions now in place presume Russian airlines will now not be able to source spare parts for either Boeing/Airbus aircraft. How long before this starts to impact on operations ?
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 9:24 am

Iran managed to keep its Boeing aircraft flying for decades after US sanctions
Russia has far more aviation resources than Iran. It makes things more difficult for Russia, but certainly not impossible
 
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sturmovik
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 10:24 am

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... K4w8kpAAAA

Credible OSInt guy says An-225 may be destroyed, for real this time.
 
889091
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:41 am

sturmovik wrote:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497876663115341827?cxt=HHwWhoCz5fK4w8kpAAAA

Credible OSInt guy says An-225 may be destroyed, for real this time.


Has the 2nd unbuilt airframe also been destroyed?
 
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Chasensfo
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:44 am

Given the fact that the An-225 does a large amount of its flying in support of global humanitarian aid, might as well drop bombs on a refugee camp or the Red Cross...really hope this isn't the case...
 
debonair
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:46 am

chunhimlai wrote:
how far SU operation affected?


What will happen to the Russians stranded on vacation in PUJ or CUN? How will they return back home?
 
Flanker7
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 11:55 am

debonair wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
how far SU operation affected?


What will happen to the Russians stranded on vacation in PUJ or CUN? How will they return back home?


Well they might have to the Pacific route. Maybe Russia will repatriate or the will have use airlines and countries that so far have not banned Russian aircraft or flying to Russia.
 
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Chasensfo
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:01 pm

I can't find a quote from Antonov, but several outlets are now reporting that Antonov themselves has said that the An-225 is safe...again.

debonair wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
how far SU operation affected?


What will happen to the Russians stranded on vacation in PUJ or CUN? How will they return back home?

I'd imagine if there are seriously plane loads of Russian travelers stuck aboard repatriation flights will be allowed. At the end of the day, regardless of politics, they are civilians and victims as much as anyone else in those circumstances.
Last edited by Chasensfo on Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
Theseus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:02 pm

debonair wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
how far SU operation affected?


What will happen to the Russians stranded on vacation in PUJ or CUN? How will they return back home?


There should be plenty of options with the middle east carriers...
 
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Pantonov22
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:09 pm

AFL2300 SVO-FRA turning back moments before entering Gulf of Finland

https://www.flightradar24.com/AFL2300/2af56920
 
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afterburner33
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:19 pm

Chasensfo wrote:
I can't find a quote from Antonov, but several outlets are now reporting that Antonov themselves has said that the An-225 is safe...again.

debonair wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
how far SU operation affected?


What will happen to the Russians stranded on vacation in PUJ or CUN? How will they return back home?

I'd imagine if there are seriously plane loads of Russian travelers stuck aboard repatriation flights will be allowed. At the end of the day, regardless of politics, they are civilians and victims as much as anyone else in those circumstances.


The Antonov Company twitter account said this when asked about the An-225:

https://twitter.com/AntonovCompany/stat ... 4896516100

Slightly promising, but then again maybe they just don't know. Also that's not the account of Antonov Airlines, who are the actual operator of the planes.
 
cpd
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:32 pm

That’s very ominous. :( I know it’s a plane and less important than the lives of those Ukrainian people but that plane is an important piece of aviation heritage.

If only it could be flown out. I find it hard to believe it didn’t get moved before all this happened.
 
asuflyer
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:36 pm

URAL U61897 A21N Moscow Zhukovsky to Funchal, Portugal has turned back

https://www.flightradar24.com/SVR1897/2af56cef
 
melpax
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:53 pm

cpd wrote:
That’s very ominous. :( I know it’s a plane and less important than the lives of those Ukrainian people but that plane is an important piece of aviation heritage.

If only it could be flown out.


Also not to mention the types of cargo it carries. Was almost a semi-regular visitor here in Australia
 
melpax
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 12:59 pm

Flanker7 wrote:
debonair wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
how far SU operation affected?


What will happen to the Russians stranded on vacation in PUJ or CUN? How will they return back home?


Well they might have to the Pacific route. Maybe Russia will repatriate or the will have use airlines and countries that so far have not banned Russian aircraft or flying to Russia.


SU flight in progress SVO-CUN.

https://www.flightradar24.com/AFL158/2af50ac8

Not sure of the normal routing, but is currently over Greenland, having given Western Europe a wide berth.
 
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ro1960
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 1:30 pm

SU124 is en route to JFK. Non ban from the US so far?
https://fr24.com/AFL124/2af5912d
 
asuflyer
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:22 pm

SU2628 738 SVO to BRU is turning back to SVO
SU2458 321 SVO to CDG is turning back to SVO
SU6632 SU9 ZAG Zagreb to LED is diverting to AER (Sochi)
RU793 74N KJA Krasnoyarsk to LEJ Leipzig was turned away by Finnish ATC and diverted to DME
 
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scbriml
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:28 pm

ro1960 wrote:
SU124 is en route to JFK. Non ban from the US so far?
https://fr24.com/AFL124/2af5912d


Yes, rather surprising that USA hasn’t banned Aeroflot. What are they waiting for?
 
asuflyer
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:31 pm

Transport Minister of Canada closes Canadian Airspace to Russian aircraft effective immediately. There is currently one Aeroflot aircraft in Canadian airspace
https://twitter.com/OmarAlghabra/status ... 0982038532
 
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vfw614
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:36 pm

Will be interesting to see how the Russians keep Kalinigrad accessible.Currently an UT AIr flight is en route from LED, approaching Kalinigrad. It passed through Finnish airspace and pretty close to Gotland.

https://www.flightradar24.com/UTA217/2af54ef8

Can they keep operating like this by flying slightly further south and avoiding Finnish (and also Estonian) airspace or is it game over for flights to Kalinigrad? As the enclave is encircled by NATO whoch no ground access, this could become a major issue for the russians in the coming days.

Also noted Serbian bizjets en route from Vnukovo to Western Europe passing through airspcae blocked for hte Russians - wonder if some quick thinking oligarch have switched their steeds quickly
 
asuflyer
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 2:38 pm

Emirates planning for potential fuel stops on US West Coast services due to sanctions.

https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2022 ... sanctions/
 
davidjohnson6
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:20 pm

SU124 just crossed Finland, Sweden and Norway in a non-trivial way, flying from Moscow to NYC. When did or does the airspace closure of these 3 countries to Russian aircraft take effect ?
Are European countries really willing to shoot down civilian aircraft overflying their territories in contravention of an airspace closure, if verbal persuasion is ignored ?
I'm wondering whether Aeroflot might send an empty civilian aircraft (just 1 or 2 pilots on secondment from Russian air force) to countries with closed airspace, to test the reaction of Europe
 
ryu2
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:34 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
SU124 just crossed Finland, Sweden and Norway in a non-trivial way, flying from Moscow to NYC. When did or does the airspace closure of these 3 countries to Russian aircraft take effect ?
Are European countries really willing to shoot down civilian aircraft overflying their territories in contravention of an airspace closure, if verbal persuasion is ignored ?
I'm wondering whether Aeroflot might send an empty civilian aircraft (just 1 or 2 pilots on secondment from Russian air force) to countries with closed airspace, to test the reaction of Europe


Short of another 9/11 they won't shoot down, but denying fuel and/or blocking the aircraft upon landing is certainly doable so good luck getting back!
 
petertenthije
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:43 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Are European countries really willing to shoot down civilian aircraft overflying their territories in contravention of an airspace closure, if verbal persuasion is ignored

Probably not. But they can block Aeroflot from taking of. Simply deny them fuel, deny them a tow truck or park a truck behind the plane. Or just let the leasing company retrieve their plane.
 
LWIEV
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:48 pm

Mriya An-225 is gone. It burned down during the Russian attack on its home base GML.

Media source (in Ukrainian - Google translate): https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-v-r ... 26400.html
Official source of the plane owner: https://t.me/UOP_Official/781
Last edited by LWIEV on Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
schernov
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:54 pm

Who does ground handling for SU at JFK and LAX and MIA? Delta?
 
FlyingHonu001
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:58 pm

Its not getting easier for SU and RU...Dutch transport minister now closing airspace over the Netherlands for Russian flights as per today 15:00 hrs GMT
https://twitter.com/markharbers/status/ ... 4656798723
Last edited by FlyingHonu001 on Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
DIJKKIJK
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 3:59 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
Iran managed to keep its Boeing aircraft flying for decades after US sanctions
Russia has far more aviation resources than Iran. It makes things more difficult for Russia, but certainly not impossible

Aren't all the Boeings and Airbuses flying for Russian carriers leased? They fly around with a 'VP-' registration, not a 'RA-' one.
If economic sanctions are put, the lessors will want their planes back. If Russia won't return them, they will also not be able to fly them on any international route for fear of impounding.

It's not going to be easy for Russian carriers.
 
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InnsbruckFlyer
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:00 pm

Is Finland going to close their airspace? If they do then Kaliningrad will be cut off...
 
ArjenterAvest
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:04 pm

InnsbruckFlyer wrote:
Is Finland going to close their airspace? If they do then Kaliningrad will be cut off...

Yes, Finland closed earlier today.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
NDiesel
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:06 pm

Seems the AN-225 Mriya is destroyed, citing this Norwegian news site: https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/verdens-storste-fly-skal-ha-blitt-odelagt-1.15871896
Apparently it was at Hostomel airport near Kyiv and destroyed during a russian attack.
Only one of its kind.

Edit: Posted above too.
Last edited by NDiesel on Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
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atcsundevil
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:07 pm

davidjohnson6 wrote:
SU124 just crossed Finland, Sweden and Norway in a non-trivial way, flying from Moscow to NYC. When did or does the airspace closure of these 3 countries to Russian aircraft take effect ?
Are European countries really willing to shoot down civilian aircraft overflying their territories in contravention of an airspace closure, if verbal persuasion is ignored ?
I'm wondering whether Aeroflot might send an empty civilian aircraft (just 1 or 2 pilots on secondment from Russian air force) to countries with closed airspace, to test the reaction of Europe

No, they would never shoot down a civil aircraft for an ADIZ violation unless there's a clear threat. Aeroflot crews are professional, and they would be very unlikely to proceed in conflict with ATC instructions. If they were to do so, they would be intercepted and forced to land. Ignoring those instructions would spark an international incident. Clearly Russia is not currently opposed to sparking international incidents, but Aeroflot has long maintained an unprovocative posture going back to the Soviet days. It does not work to their benefit long term to act otherwise.
 
iRISH251
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:07 pm

This Il-76 is a long way from home but will presumably be able to leave the USA unless new measures are introduced.
https://flightaware.com/live/flight/VDA ... /KPSM/KTTS
 
Toinou
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:08 pm

InnsbruckFlyer wrote:
Is Finland going to close their airspace? If they do then Kaliningrad will be cut off...

No, there is a small corridor of international waters (an so airspace) between Finland and Estonia : https://www.openstreetmap.org/#map=7/60.204/26.093
 
Kikko19
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:10 pm

atcsundevil wrote:
davidjohnson6 wrote:
SU124 just crossed Finland, Sweden and Norway in a non-trivial way, flying from Moscow to NYC. When did or does the airspace closure of these 3 countries to Russian aircraft take effect ?
Are European countries really willing to shoot down civilian aircraft overflying their territories in contravention of an airspace closure, if verbal persuasion is ignored ?
I'm wondering whether Aeroflot might send an empty civilian aircraft (just 1 or 2 pilots on secondment from Russian air force) to countries with closed airspace, to test the reaction of Europe

No, they would never shoot down a civil aircraft for an ADIZ violation unless there's a clear threat. Aeroflot crews are professional, and they would be very unlikely to proceed in conflict with ATC instructions. If they were to do so, they would be intercepted and forced to land. Ignoring those instructions would spark an international incident. Clearly Russia is not currently opposed to sparking international incidents, but Aeroflot has long maintained an unprovocative posture going back to the Soviet days. It does not work to their benefit long term to act otherwise.

Also Ay is flying so not yet implemented.
 
md11sdf
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:22 pm

Has there been word regarding Ukraine International Airlines' fleet and aircrews? It is heartbreaking that Antonov did not prepare for the Russian attack and evacuate their aircraft and people weeks ago.
Last edited by md11sdf on Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
 
factsonly
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:23 pm

chunhimlai wrote:
how far SU operation affected?


Sunday - February 27, 2022:

Aeroflot flight AFL2152 SVO-DUS diverted to AMS to avoid the sudden closure of German airspace for Russian operated aircraft.
However The Netherlands followed the German example pretty quickly and A320 VP-BAC seems to have become stuck at AMS, as en-route airspace of NL, Germany, DK, Sweden are now all closed.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/su2152
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/vp-bac

Are there any other examples of Russian operated aircraft stuck outside Russia??
 
ltbewr
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:25 pm

I wonder how long overflights of Russia will continue due to security risks to airlines, the cut off of payment systems (SWIFT) to handle such transactions and Russia/Putin making the 'West' pay for their sanctions. That could mean many flights between to/from Asia will have to be re-routed with serous results.
 
Theotime74
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:31 pm

factsonly wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
how far SU operation affected?


Sunday - February 27, 2022:

Aeroflot flight AFL2152 SVO-DUS diverted to AMS to avoid the sudden closure of German airspace for Russian operated aircraft.
However The Netherlands followed the German example pretty quickly and A320 VP-BAC seems to have become stuck at AMS, as en-route airspace of NL, Germany, DK, Sweden are now all closed.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/su2152
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/vp-bac

Are there any other examples of Russian operated aircraft stuck outside Russia??


According to Fr24 , the flight from Geneva to Moscow is now stuck on ground at GVA it seems ...
Fligh number SU2385, should have departed 1h30 ago ...
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:32 pm

This will harm Euro airlines more than Russia, other than a couple of small ones.

Air France is already canceling all China, Japan and Asia runs, trying to figure out reroutes.
 
Toinou
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:37 pm

factsonly wrote:
chunhimlai wrote:
how far SU operation affected?


Sunday - February 27, 2022:

Aeroflot flight AFL2152 SVO-DUS diverted to AMS to avoid the sudden closure of German airspace for Russian operated aircraft.
However The Netherlands followed the German example pretty quickly and A320 VP-BAC seems to have become stuck at AMS, as en-route airspace of NL, Germany, DK, Sweden are now all closed.

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flights/su2152
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/aircraft/vp-bac

Are there any other examples of Russian operated aircraft stuck outside Russia??

It is weird. The time the ban started was announced well in advance. It seems that SU somewhat tried it. Some other flights (like SU2090 and SU2484) were almost rushing to make it (looking at their flight datas, I'm under the impression that there were flying faster than usual). Now, they are forced to make a very long detour to go back (SU2091).
Another one (SU2385) seems to be stuck in GVA (shown as "taxiing" on Flightaware for the last hour and a half).
 
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Thunderboltdrgn
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:42 pm

EU closes airspace for Russian planes.

https://twitter.com/APDiploWriter/statu ... 3982034945
 
asuflyer
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:43 pm

Unconfirmed reports are that Aeroflot 2385 A321 VP-BOE operating GVA-SVO is reportedly being held at the gate and the aircraft is not being allowed to depart.
 
FlyingHonu001
Posts: 571
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:46 pm

Homebound flights AFL2533 from AGP and AFL2719 from BCN are now forced onto the 'scenic' route over the Baltic because of the recent EU airspace closures

https://fr24.com/AFL2719/2af59243]
https://fr24.com/AFL2533/2af581be
 
hpff
Posts: 209
Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2019 5:20 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:47 pm

Any uptick in traffic at ANC yet? Saw that YVR was used for a Europe-Asia reroute but don't see anything else out of the ordinary
 
dozerman
Posts: 76
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related Discussion Thread

Sun Feb 27, 2022 4:49 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
This will harm Euro airlines more than Russia, other than a couple of small ones.

Air France is already canceling all China, Japan and Asia runs, trying to figure out reroutes.


That may be true but the purpose of these sanctions is not only to make Russian companies suffer. It is also to isolate Russia and halt their trade relationships with the rest of the world. Western countries are not trying to create a competitive advantage for their airlines, it's more than that. All airlines will suffer from this.
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