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Vicenza
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:08 pm

Phosphorus wrote:

So, Solvay went and gave russians advanced composites technology, already after this war began in 2014? Hmm....


What war began in 2014, and why the "hmm"?
 
dcajet
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Jun 21, 2022 4:23 pm

Vicenza wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:

So, Solvay went and gave russians advanced composites technology, already after this war began in 2014? Hmm....


What war began in 2014, and why the "hmm"?


Not all wars are fought in the battlefield. Putin's Russia has been waging a covert war against Ukraine since before 2014, In 2022 it just went all out war.
 
Vicenza
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Jun 21, 2022 7:21 pm

dcajet wrote:
Vicenza wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:

So, Solvay went and gave russians advanced composites technology, already after this war began in 2014? Hmm....


What war began in 2014, and why the "hmm"?


Not all wars are fought in the battlefield. Putin's Russia has been waging a covert war against Ukraine since before 2014, In 2022 it just went all out war.


Yes, and I'm fully aware of that of course. A covert 'war' and actual war are two very different things though. The annexation of Crimea took place in 2014, and limited sanctions were put in place, but nothing whatsoever compared to the current sanctions. My point was, in relation to the member, if the items he was questioning were not covered by the sanctions at that time then Solvay committed no wrongdoing.
 
Caleo
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Jun 22, 2022 2:22 pm

Vicenza wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:

So, Solvay went and gave russians advanced composites technology, already after this war began in 2014? Hmm....


What war began in 2014, and why the "hmm"?




The War in the Donbas? The war that infamously resulted in the downing of MH17?
 
phugoid1982
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sat Jun 25, 2022 12:09 pm

Looks like a couple of A-350's are running sporadic SVO-LED and daily SVO-AER flights. I wonder if they will rack up more cycles being utilized on short sectors daily and need cannibalizing and maintenance sooner than if they were flying longer sectors?
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sat Jun 25, 2022 1:43 pm

phugoid1982 wrote:
Looks like a couple of A-350's are running sporadic SVO-LED and daily SVO-AER flights. I wonder if they will rack up more cycles being utilized on short sectors daily and need cannibalizing and maintenance sooner than if they were flying longer sectors?

Who knows. Maybe they ran the spreadsheets, and realized that older metal is easier to source components for, and maybe with some longer lead time, either domestic manufacturing, or international smuggling, will keep them flying into some future.
While new, more computerized planes, with newer tech components, are not really something they can sustain long-term. Maybe it's not only cycles and flight hours that are limited, but maybe even calendar time that's short.

If yes, why not burn off those flight hours and cycles while they are still available?

Another easy answer would be keeping crews current?
 
dcajet
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sat Jun 25, 2022 6:17 pm

Phosphorus wrote:

Another easy answer would be keeping crews current?


I'd think that is the most likely reason. There are not too many places left for SU to send those A350 outside of their borders, so perhaps 2 of the busiest domestic routes are a good substitute to help keep pilots current.
 
RJWNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 26, 2022 5:12 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
Another easy answer would be keeping crews current?


What’s the use keeping crews current on planes that have no future in Russia?
 
dcajet
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 26, 2022 5:55 pm

RJWNL wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
Another easy answer would be keeping crews current?


What’s the use keeping crews current on planes that have no future in Russia?


You are not thinking like a Russian...
 
RJWNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 26, 2022 6:25 pm

dcajet wrote:
You are not thinking like a Russian...

True, but eventually the hard realities will force them to change their thinking. They are no longer living in the good old Soviet times...
 
WalterFaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jun 26, 2022 11:44 pm

dcajet wrote:
RJWNL wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
Another easy answer would be keeping crews current?


What’s the use keeping crews current on planes that have no future in Russia?


You are not thinking like a Russian...

True. Distribute bribes to enact a law that supports an airliner pilot reserve through the crisis, report big reserve pilot pool to the gouvernement, fire them, cash in the paychecks, buy a yacht.
 
jmmadrid
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:36 am

WalterFaber wrote:
dcajet wrote:
RJWNL wrote:

What’s the use keeping crews current on planes that have no future in Russia?


You are not thinking like a Russian...

True. Distribute bribes to enact a law that supports an airliner pilot reserve through the crisis, report big reserve pilot pool to the gouvernement, fire them, cash in the paychecks, buy a yacht.


While the media and the rest of the population, instead of being shocked or criticise you, wish they could do the same.
 
Strato2
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:52 pm

Several russian planes flying from Kaliningrad to LED/SVO had to turn back to Kaliningrad because of thunderous weather in the international airspace between Estonia and Finland that they could not circumvent because of closed airspace.
 
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lightsaber
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 30, 2022 2:19 am

Strato2 wrote:
Several russian planes flying from Kaliningrad to LED/SVO had to turn back to Kaliningrad because of thunderous weather in the international airspace between Estonia and Finland that they could not circumvent because of closed airspace.

Source? Or were you quoting another link?
 
Strato2
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jun 30, 2022 1:05 pm

lightsaber wrote:
Strato2 wrote:
Several russian planes flying from Kaliningrad to LED/SVO had to turn back to Kaliningrad because of thunderous weather in the international airspace between Estonia and Finland that they could not circumvent because of closed airspace.

Source? Or were you quoting another link?


Ural Airlines:
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 8#2c6ea68d
This plane even violated Finnish airspace when turning back.

Pobeda Airlines:
https://www.flightradar24.com/data/flig ... 4#2c6eb124

I'd correct "several" by saying it might be there was not more than these two.
 
LJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jul 03, 2022 7:59 am

lightsaber wrote:
This link makes a good point that the Russian airliners should start running out of tires soon. They would have had spare tires on hand, but I'm betting that 4 to 6 months after sanctions started (March 1st/2nd as noted in link, my personal estimate on the timeline), there will be a dire shortage of aircraft tires in Russia for the western aircraft. Not something easy to copy or replace:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/202 ... art/?amp=1

We're on day 127 of the invasion (4 months). So perhaps soon tires will be dear, perhaps in 2 months.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... mp;amp;amp


viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1470765&start=150

The above is taken from the "Newsfeed" thread. I was wondering, wouldn't Russian airlines be able to send their planes to, for exmple Antalya, and have their tires replaced? I know that there is a good audit trail, but if you've a company which isn't exposed to Wesern countries, you could at least do this for a short period. Moreover, wouldn't it be easy to load those widebodies with parts? Again, it will be one-tme only thing, but untill the Western companies realize that the parts are send to Russia, they have a few loads and thus for a few months parts.Or is this covered one way or another?
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:31 am

LJ wrote:
lightsaber wrote:
This link makes a good point that the Russian airliners should start running out of tires soon. They would have had spare tires on hand, but I'm betting that 4 to 6 months after sanctions started (March 1st/2nd as noted in link, my personal estimate on the timeline), there will be a dire shortage of aircraft tires in Russia for the western aircraft. Not something easy to copy or replace:

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/202 ... art/?amp=1

We're on day 127 of the invasion (4 months). So perhaps soon tires will be dear, perhaps in 2 months.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... mp;amp;amp


viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1470765&start=150

The above is taken from the "Newsfeed" thread. I was wondering, wouldn't Russian airlines be able to send their planes to, for exmple Antalya, and have their tires replaced? I know that there is a good audit trail, but if you've a company which isn't exposed to Wesern countries, you could at least do this for a short period. Moreover, wouldn't it be easy to load those widebodies with parts? Again, it will be one-tme only thing, but untill the Western companies realize that the parts are send to Russia, they have a few loads and thus for a few months parts.Or is this covered one way or another?



"I don't know how it's done in the decadent West", but in ex-USSR, airliner tire manufacturing was done under military quality standards.
Which meant, among other things, fixed commission to the military representative office at the manufacturing site, military-stamped quality certificates, etc.
And of course, each tire had a paper trail.
In 1990's when the "baby-Flots" count was around three hundred, or so, plus all accounting done on paper (can't afford computers, except for the GM to play Tetris), and companies (including distributors) going bankrupt and being reborn next day -- left and right, things could get opaque very quickly.

But today, if someone with possible Russia connections is trying to load up on supplies, including tires for 747-400 or A350, and not being able to explain what happens to these, I guess red flags would go up quickly.

Would I correct in guessing that tires have part numbers that allow them to be traced?
 
art
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Jul 05, 2022 1:08 am

Sorry if it has been asked but how are the lessors whose airliners have been pinched by Russia doing? I imagine that company accounts reflect asset values. How are assets treated in the accounts when lessors have no control of those assets, given that they have been kidnapped ?
 
Pentaprism
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sat Jul 09, 2022 2:59 am

leftcoast8 wrote:
What are the chances that China and India invest in/bail out Rostec? They're the Russian state company that owns Irkut, Tupolev, Aviadvigatel, Ilyushin and basically the rest of Russian aviation. UAC, which is also owned by Rostec, teamed up with Comac in China for the CRAIC CR929. Could we see big orders from Chinese or Indian carriers for SSJ100s, MC-21s? Or Air India ordering more non-western widebodies like the CR929 or Il-96-400M? PLAAF/IAF PAK DAs or Su-75s?

Or, is this a non-starter for whatever reason?



It depends what time frame you have in mind. Chances of anyone other than Russian & Belorussian Airlines ordering MC-21's and Superjets in the next few years are very close to zero. Because you don't know what you would you get, so many parts have to be substituted that the quality of the substitutes and the time taken to produce them is completely unknown. There is a huge Russian order to be filled before any export orders could be filled. And the War may finish and sanctions lifted before they ever go back into production.

But longer term, eg 15 years, there could well be serious demand for Russian Aircraft because the US has history of weaponising sanctions and using them as a stick to punish anyone who disagrees with them. Even Countries like Cuba are still being punished with embargoes for disputes that broke out many decades ago. So all non western Countries, including China, are on notice that if they don't want to be bullied by the US they need to have alternative options to source technology from. Russia still has the most advanced aviation technology outside the west so will likely be considered by anyone who is not in good standing with the US for whatever reason.
 
Noshow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sat Jul 09, 2022 5:43 am

Rostec is Russias arms industry holding. It won't be for sale.
I have a hard time imagining Russia becoming a big civil aircraft exporter like you mentioned. China might build what it needs itself and export stuff to developing countries but China will not need Russian airliners in any quantity. The CR 929 wide body cooperation seems to end again already.
Practically Russia has been very heavy handed with successfully exporting aircraft even with modern types like the SuperJet. Spares and services seem to be the ongoing big issue.
 
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SR380
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Jul 11, 2022 5:29 am

Hey guys,

Quick question: Are the Tu-214 and Il-96 operated by Rossiya Airlines (special flight squadron) in normal passenger configuration (except the Il-96-300PU)?

Could those frame be used to boost Aeroflot or Rossiya Airlines fleets?

Thanks.
 
Pentaprism
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Jul 11, 2022 7:48 pm

SR380 wrote:
Hey guys,

Quick question: Are the Tu-214 and Il-96 operated by Rossiya Airlines (special flight squadron) in normal passenger configuration (except the Il-96-300PU)?

Could those frame be used to boost Aeroflot or Rossiya Airlines fleets?

Thanks.


I believe Putin has 2 or more IL-96's configured for his use. The remaining IL-96'S are under utilised and if their Government cared to help the people I'm sure they could make a couple available. But it's not that kind of Government.

Re the TU-214's I'm not sure on exact numbers but the Airforce has some specialised ones for photography and electronic warfare. I would expect Rossiya's fleet to be in standard config.

Aeroflot had 6 IL-96'S. One caught fire on the tarmac at SVO. I expect they should be able to bring the others back to service. There were 3 ex Domodedovo Airlines in storage at DME which were inactive for over 10 years but I believe work was carried out to get some of them airworthy b4 the War.

Transaero had 3 TU-214's that were taken out of service 3 or 4 years ago. And more than half the TU-204's built were withdrawn from service despite being fairly new and not having many hours.

A lot of Superjets also in storage so plenty of Russian Birds available for them to work on but availablity of parts and maintenance people is questionable. Most of their maintenance people will be qualified on western equipment and will require cross training to work on Russian models.
 
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Vasu
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Jul 11, 2022 10:35 pm

How long have the Aeroflot il96s been out of service? Surely it must be very difficult to bring any back into service? Unless they were keeping them in more of a long term storage (in which case, why were they doing that?)
 
Pentaprism
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Jul 12, 2022 3:28 am

Vasu wrote:
How long have the Aeroflot il96s been out of service? Surely it must be very difficult to bring any back into service? Unless they were keeping them in more of a long term storage (in which case, why were they doing that?)


They were retired in 2014. I believe there were plans to sell at least some of them to Cubana so they have probably got a bit of attention after they retired, at least for a while.
 
JetAirways
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Jul 12, 2022 3:55 am

Any info on UR-AZR, Azur Air Ukraine B77W that is stored at KBP as per planespotters. Has it sustained any damage after what has been going on over there?
https://www.planespotters.net/airframe/ ... ine/en4042
 
dcajet
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Jul 12, 2022 4:18 am

Pentaprism wrote:
Vasu wrote:
How long have the Aeroflot il96s been out of service? Surely it must be very difficult to bring any back into service? Unless they were keeping them in more of a long term storage (in which case, why were they doing that?)


They were retired in 2014. I believe there were plans to sell at least some of them to Cubana so they have probably got a bit of attention after they retired, at least for a while.


Only one went to Cubana ca. 2015, flying for a few years with the registration CU-T1717, ex RA-96008, built in 1992. It carried a hybrid SU/CU livery. Supposedly it ran out of hours and with Cubana lacking the means and resources to keep it in the air, it is now slowly decaying under the Cuban sun at HAV.



I highly doubt the rest of the ex-SU IL-96 fleet are in a flyable condition. RA-96010 caught fire at SVO shortly after its retirement, back in 2014.

 
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CrimsonNL
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation *News Feed* Thread

Sun Jul 17, 2022 11:32 am

JoKeR wrote:
Seems that a Ukrainian cargo aircraft (Meridian Air Cargo An-12 - UR-CIC) has crashed after attempting an emergency landing in Kavala, Northern Greece... person in the know saying the flight has originated in INI and was on its way to AMM... and was apparently carrying weapons for Ukraine from Serbia.


Flying weapons from Serbia to Ukraine via AMM? It's most likely just a "regular" arms shipment to some overseas country unrelated to the war in Ukraine.
 
Vicenza
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation *News Feed* Thread

Sun Jul 17, 2022 7:01 pm

CrimsonNL wrote:
JoKeR wrote:
Seems that a Ukrainian cargo aircraft (Meridian Air Cargo An-12 - UR-CIC) has crashed after attempting an emergency landing in Kavala, Northern Greece... person in the know saying the flight has originated in INI and was on its way to AMM... and was apparently carrying weapons for Ukraine from Serbia.


Flying weapons from Serbia to Ukraine via AMM? It's most likely just a "regular" arms shipment to some overseas country unrelated to the war in Ukraine.


Yes, normal shipment of Serbia-made weapons to Pakistan. Completely unrelated to Ukraine.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation *News Feed* Thread

Sun Jul 17, 2022 10:36 pm

Vicenza wrote:
CrimsonNL wrote:
JoKeR wrote:
Seems that a Ukrainian cargo aircraft (Meridian Air Cargo An-12 - UR-CIC) has crashed after attempting an emergency landing in Kavala, Northern Greece... person in the know saying the flight has originated in INI and was on its way to AMM... and was apparently carrying weapons for Ukraine from Serbia.


Flying weapons from Serbia to Ukraine via AMM? It's most likely just a "regular" arms shipment to some overseas country unrelated to the war in Ukraine.


Yes, normal shipment of Serbia-made weapons to Pakistan. Completely unrelated to Ukraine.

That would be East Pakistan, known since 1971 as Bangladesh. :old:
 
Canuck600
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Jul 18, 2022 1:38 am

Does anybody know what is happening with Kamov Helicopters & their ability to distribute parts to their customers worldwide?
 
Vicenza
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation *News Feed* Thread

Mon Jul 18, 2022 11:31 am

MalevTU134 wrote:
Vicenza wrote:
CrimsonNL wrote:

Flying weapons from Serbia to Ukraine via AMM? It's most likely just a "regular" arms shipment to some overseas country unrelated to the war in Ukraine.


Yes, normal shipment of Serbia-made weapons to Pakistan. Completely unrelated to Ukraine.

That would be East Pakistan, known since 1971 as Bangladesh. :old:


The report only stated Pakistan, so I had/have no reason to assume Bangladesh.
 
MalevTU134
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation *News Feed* Thread

Mon Jul 18, 2022 2:09 pm

Vicenza wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
Vicenza wrote:

Yes, normal shipment of Serbia-made weapons to Pakistan. Completely unrelated to Ukraine.

That would be East Pakistan, known since 1971 as Bangladesh. :old:


The report only stated Pakistan, so I had/have no reason to assume Bangladesh.


I don't know which report, but Google gives this:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62195005
 
Vicenza
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation *News Feed* Thread

Mon Jul 18, 2022 2:25 pm

MalevTU134 wrote:
Vicenza wrote:
MalevTU134 wrote:
That would be East Pakistan, known since 1971 as Bangladesh. :old:


The report only stated Pakistan, so I had/have no reason to assume Bangladesh.


I don't know which report, but Google gives this:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62195005


No, the report I read was immediately after the crash and not BBC anyhow, so probably updated since then.
 
MPadhi
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Jul 19, 2022 3:47 pm

art wrote:
Sorry if it has been asked but how are the lessors whose airliners have been pinched by Russia doing? I imagine that company accounts reflect asset values. How are assets treated in the accounts when lessors have no control of those assets, given that they have been kidnapped ?


It's not completely clear about the final impact on Lessors at the moment as the insurance implications are yet unknown.

So far I've heard that CALC has written down the value of their two Russian place aircraft, as per this quote from Cirium:
"The lessor will fully write down the net book value of the aircraft as at 30 June. The net write-off is HK$438.6 million ($56 million) after offsetting security deposit and maintenance reserves on the aircraft as well as the value of the repossessed engine, and will be booked in the six-month period ended 30 June." Behind paywall: https://dashboard.cirium.com/app/#/arti ... =federated

Generally speaking, most lessors haven't got a massive exposure to Russia. Aercap was the largest one with 5% of its book (by value) being placed with Russian airlines. They have recently put in a $3.5bn claim into the insurance market. It's not currently clear whether this is a valid claim, and we will only know once the results of the inevitable court arbitration is concluded.

They are currently treating the situation as if the assets are completely lost, and trying to set the precedent from that. But perhaps the war ends sooner than expected and these assets are still intact, and only slightly written down.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jul 21, 2022 1:05 pm

“ ⚡️#BREAKING: The European Union lifts ban on the supply of a number of goods and services for the aviation industry, as well as financial transactions to pay for Russian oil supplies to third countries and Russian food exports - Council of the European Union”

https://twitter.com/WarfareReports/stat ... 9539104774

The ban on most aircraft parts is lifted, in return for supplying Airbus with needed Russian materials such as Aluminum and Titanium.

EU countries can now buy Russian Oil and gas, but not “Directly”, only through a third party (like Saudi Arabia, Dubai, or Turkey.

Sanctions on several Russian ports are lifted, to allow the transport of food to Europe.
 
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alberchico
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jul 21, 2022 1:52 pm

And the gradual rollback in sanctions now begins. As winter approaches, the threat of a total gas cutoff will force Europe to cough up even more concessions.
 
FlyingElvii
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jul 21, 2022 2:12 pm

alberchico wrote:
And the gradual rollback in sanctions now begins. As winter approaches, the threat of a total gas cutoff will force Europe to cough up even more concessions.

Starvation is a hell of a motivator.
 
BEG2IAH
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:15 pm

alberchico wrote:
And the gradual rollback in sanctions now begins. As winter approaches, the threat of a total gas cutoff will force Europe to cough up even more concessions.


So VSMPO-Avisma PJSC will not be under sanctions because it's a "critical supplier of titanium to Airbus SE," according to the WSJ. If I see this right, Russians will sell titanium to Airbus and get cash, Airbus will build that titanium into the helicopters and sell them to its government which will donate them to Ukraine, Russians will shoot them down and sell some more titanium, and the cycle goes on and on. I thought imposing all these sanctions was supposed to harm Russia not help it by being selective.
 
riptide120
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Jul 21, 2022 9:35 pm

FlyingElvii wrote:
“ ⚡️#BREAKING: The European Union lifts ban on the supply of a number of goods and services for the aviation industry, as well as financial transactions to pay for Russian oil supplies to third countries and Russian food exports - Council of the European Union”

https://twitter.com/WarfareReports/stat ... 9539104774

The ban on most aircraft parts is lifted, in return for supplying Airbus with needed Russian materials such as Aluminum and Titanium.

EU countries can now buy Russian Oil and gas, but not “Directly”, only through a third party (like Saudi Arabia, Dubai, or Turkey.

Sanctions on several Russian ports are lifted, to allow the transport of food to Europe.


There isn't much info on the exact details, but it certainly doesn't sound like "ban on most aircraft parts is lifted", more like "activities related to ICAO work are exempt from sanctions":

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/07/21/russia-s-aggression-against-ukraine-eu-adopts-maintenance-and-alignment-package/
 
2175301
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Fri Jul 22, 2022 1:31 am

riptide120 wrote:
There isn't much info on the exact details, but it certainly doesn't sound like "ban on most aircraft parts is lifted", more like "activities related to ICAO work are exempt from sanctions":

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/07/21/russia-s-aggression-against-ukraine-eu-adopts-maintenance-and-alignment-package/


Agreed. Parts and aircraft services ARE NOT exempt from sanctions. Technical assistance to and working with the ICAO on aviation safety and standards is exempt from the sanctions.

The company selling Titanium to Airbus (and others) will be exempted from sanctions as well.
 
2175301
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jul 24, 2022 6:17 pm

An Update: The EU rewrote the press release so it does not talk about the aviation effects of the approved legislation that is linked by the above link, and repeated here:

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2022/07/21/russia-s-aggression-against-ukraine-eu-adopts-maintenance-and-alignment-package/[/quote]

The actual changes approved in sanctions can be found in the actual published EU Legislation (L 193) on July 21, 2022 with the following link (the link is on the bottom of the press release):

https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content ... LL&from=EN

The Aviation change in sanctions regards to EU companies working with Russia is on page 200 of the pdf (listed as L 193/200) and reads:

"(13) In order to safeguard the technical industrial standard setting process of the International
Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), it is appropriate to allow the sharing of technical
assistance with Russia in relation to aviation goods and technology in this specific
framework."

The above exclusion only allows sharing of technical data and discussions about aviation standards with ICAO and the normal participation of manufactures with crash/incident investigations in Russia.

It does not allow parts or other engineering/technical services to be supplied to Russian Aviation or other companies.


The Titanium purchase exclusion is on pages 15 & 202 of the pdf (listed as L 193/15 & L193/202) and both pages reads:

"(a) transactions which are strictly necessary for the direct or indirect
purchase, import or transport of natural gas, titanium, aluminium, copper,
nickel, palladium and iron ore from or through Russia into the Union, a
country member of the European Economic Area, Switzerland, or the
Western Balkans;"

This allows Airbus and other companies to buy Russian titanium and other metals from Russia where there is not other adequate worldwide supplies (at this time).

I trust this clears up any confusion.
 
Pentaprism
Posts: 113
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:12 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jul 31, 2022 8:16 pm

How does Iran get around the issue of sourcing tyres?

Does the exemption granted by the EU allow Russia access to software updates to it's Airbus fleets?

Really I'm surprised Russia is willing to continue to sell Titanium to Airbus. They have minimised gas exports, which would be costing them far more revenue, so it's not really a money issue. Why would they help the EU continue to produce Aircraft they can't buy when they themselves are rapidly running out of serviceable Aircraft? Surely it would make sense to retaliate and say no Titanium for A until they get something substantial in return. Perhaps they are keeping this card up their sleeve to play a bit later.
 
Vicenza
Posts: 919
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jul 31, 2022 10:26 pm

Pentaprism wrote:
How does Iran get around the issue of sourcing tyres?

Does the exemption granted by the EU allow Russia access to software updates to it's Airbus fleets?

Really I'm surprised Russia is willing to continue to sell Titanium to Airbus. They have minimised gas exports, which would be costing them far more revenue, so it's not really a money issue.


Not at all because with the high price of gas on the world markets, they are ironically, actually earning much more revenue than before the sanctions were put in place, and by minimising supplies to some EU countries the price thus remains high.
 
Pentaprism
Posts: 113
Joined: Mon Mar 11, 2019 1:12 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sun Jul 31, 2022 11:42 pm

Vicenza wrote:
Pentaprism wrote:
How does Iran get around the issue of sourcing tyres?

Does the exemption granted by the EU allow Russia access to software updates to it's Airbus fleets?

Really I'm surprised Russia is willing to continue to sell Titanium to Airbus. They have minimised gas exports, which would be costing them far more revenue, so it's not really a money issue.


Not at all because with the high price of gas on the world markets, they are ironically, actually earning much more revenue than before the sanctions were put in place, and by minimising supplies to some EU countries the price thus remains high.


It's not as simple as that. Certainly reducing supply will increase price but that doesn't mean Suppliers are necessarily going to be more profitable, they only get paid for what they sell and they risk losing long term Customers by playing these games. It also depends on what time frame you analyse. This article for example says the reaction to an announced 50% reduction in supply on July 25th caused a 20% increase in price.

https://www.ft.com/content/f8450175-733 ... 534141e305


So that represents a net loss to Russia in my opinion. If they had pipelines in place to India and China and could send their Gas South they could happily withdraw from the European market and lose nothing. But they don't, Pipelines take decades to build and cost billions. And, as Nord 2 has shown, they ultimately may never be used.
 
LJ
Posts: 5520
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Aug 01, 2022 6:31 am

Vicenza wrote:
Not at all because with the high price of gas on the world markets, they are ironically, actually earning much more revenue than before the sanctions were put in place, and by minimising supplies to some EU countries the price thus remains high.


Theree are different gas/oil prices depending on where the gas/oil comes from. India and China are reported to get a 30% discount on the market price for Russian gas/oil. In case of India this is necessary as the transport costs to India are relatively high (not so much capacity via pipelines).. How much India and China actually pay Russia is unknown, but it certainly not arket price (why owuld they iif they know Russia can't sell much to Europe).
 
Vicenza
Posts: 919
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:10 pm

Pentaprism wrote:


So that represents a net loss to Russia in my opinion.


Yes, but it is only your opinion, nothing more. Personally, I would take the word of experts and the IMF before that of a.net.
 
Vicenza
Posts: 919
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2020 3:21 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Aug 01, 2022 12:14 pm

LJ wrote:
Vicenza wrote:
Not at all because with the high price of gas on the world markets, they are ironically, actually earning much more revenue than before the sanctions were put in place, and by minimising supplies to some EU countries the price thus remains high.


Theree are different gas/oil prices depending on where the gas/oil comes from. India and China are reported to get a 30% discount on the market price for Russian gas/oil. In case of India this is necessary as the transport costs to India are relatively high (not so much capacity via pipelines).. How much India and China actually pay Russia is unknown, but it certainly not arket price (why owuld they iif they know Russia can't sell much to Europe).


I'm not particularly interested in what price India or China individually pay for gas or oil and you, yourself, don't even know. I'm talking about the world market price. If you disagree that's perfectly fine with me, so feel free to guess all you wish.
 
mh124
Posts: 67
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2013 10:33 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Aug 01, 2022 9:50 pm

scbriml wrote:
ReverseFlow wrote:
It's not the lack of equipment that's going to ground the fleets but lack of consumable parts like brakes and tyres.


The reality is, we've known this from the day sanctions were first imposed. As soon as they've gone through their stock of spares (of any part), they're done.


I have been thinking about this - there doesn't seem to be a big drop in domestic departures at SVO. Around 250 or so a day. It could be that they are still using spares. But I do wonder if there is evasion of sanctions going on. For example, exports from Italy to Turkey have suddenly stratospherically increased in June of this year, as have exports from Turkey to Russia. I also read of back door sanctions evasion via Georgia. Not definitely saying this is happening to aircraft parts, but I do wonder.
 
Noshow
Posts: 3543
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 3:20 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Aug 02, 2022 6:25 am

Many sanctions can be bypassed through backdoors it seems. But this makes getting stuff much more difficult and expensive. The normal flight operations finally receive not enough parts required even with bypassing the problem just takes a little longer to pile up. Western style high pressure aircraft tyres are said to be one of the key parts constantly needed. And today parts are trackable over their entire service life. It is much harder to trade stuff elsewhere on hidden routes.
 
Sachmet
Posts: 37
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2021 4:45 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Aug 02, 2022 1:34 pm

Noshow wrote:
Many sanctions can be bypassed through backdoors it seems. But this makes getting stuff much more difficult and expensive. The normal flight operations finally receive not enough parts required even with bypassing the problem just takes a little longer to pile up. Western style high pressure aircraft tyres are said to be one of the key parts constantly needed. And today parts are trackable over their entire service life. It is much harder to trade stuff elsewhere on hidden routes.

Iran kept their Tomcats flying in the sky and we speak about a specialised military fighter that only the USN was using. Now compare this with Boeing and Airbus civil aviation. How complicated can it be for Russia (a country with much more resources and much better international standing than Iran) to keep their fleet in the air until they can replace them with their own production? It will only be a minor nuisance until they learn to live with it and as with the rest of the sanctions - 'that what doesn't kill you can only make you stronger'.

The real damage isn't done to Russia but to the US and European civil aviation industry as international customers are taking notice. Countries like China and Russia can weather almost any storm but smaller ones will have to seek reliable sources for their aviation or else will be potential blackmailed with the threat of having their fleets grounded by sanctions.

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