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scbriml
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Nov 23, 2022 11:05 am

telmat wrote:
scbriml wrote:
They talk a good talk, but when was the last time the Russian aviation sector met a target date?


Its war and the military also depends on a working civil aviation and other civil industries. Making predictions based on the performance of the pre-war industries isn't giving you the full picture. It is really all speculation.


There's really not much speculation involved. The Russian civil aviation sector faces massive challenges. There's zero evidence currently that they're able to overcome those challenges in anything approaching a timely fashion. As for war, Russia is struggling to replace military equipment that it's burning through.

telmat wrote:
They do not need to compete with anyone. They simply need something that can replace their western fleets. Fuel economy, latest avionics is of secondary concern to them.


The huge question is, what are they going to replace their Airbuses and Boeings with? There's nothing available in anything like the numbers needed.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Nov 23, 2022 7:34 pm

scbriml wrote:
telmat wrote:
scbriml wrote:
They talk a good talk, but when was the last time the Russian aviation sector met a target date?


Its war and the military also depends on a working civil aviation and other civil industries. Making predictions based on the performance of the pre-war industries isn't giving you the full picture. It is really all speculation.


There's really not much speculation involved. The Russian civil aviation sector faces massive challenges. There's zero evidence currently that they're able to overcome those challenges in anything approaching a timely fashion. As for war, Russia is struggling to replace military equipment that it's burning through.

telmat wrote:
They do not need to compete with anyone. They simply need something that can replace their western fleets. Fuel economy, latest avionics is of secondary concern to them.


The huge question is, what are they going to replace their Airbuses and Boeings with? There's nothing available in anything like the numbers needed.


pro-russia crowd would say that that they will make their own, especially if the West stops meddling.
(of course, by "meddling" they mean allowing Ukraine to defend itself).

For example, if ruskies were allowed to capture Kyiv and Zaporizhia, they would have both Antonov and Motor-Sich under control. This would mean they could have a strong supply of D-436 family engines for small airplanes out there -- Tu-334 (yes, they are still trying to re-start that program, 34 years after official launch), Beriev amphibians, possibly to re-engine SSJ, and of course for An-148 series.
Possibly, they would restart An-148 series, in Kyiv, too.

Maybe those "twin Il-96 series" would be less of a pipedream -- they could build medium-haul mass carriers, just hanging D-18's under them.
So they could have a sensible cannibalization program for existing frames, to keep them running, while restarting russian production, supported with designs and supplies from occupied Ukraine.
Alas, Ukraine is shooting back, and these plans don't work.

And in russia, Rybinskie Motory and Permskie Motory apparently are much less competent in engine building, than russia likes to present...
 
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SR380
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Nov 24, 2022 8:10 am

Phosphorus wrote:
scbriml wrote:
telmat wrote:

Its war and the military also depends on a working civil aviation and other civil industries. Making predictions based on the performance of the pre-war industries isn't giving you the full picture. It is really all speculation.


There's really not much speculation involved. The Russian civil aviation sector faces massive challenges. There's zero evidence currently that they're able to overcome those challenges in anything approaching a timely fashion. As for war, Russia is struggling to replace military equipment that it's burning through.

telmat wrote:
They do not need to compete with anyone. They simply need something that can replace their western fleets. Fuel economy, latest avionics is of secondary concern to them.


The huge question is, what are they going to replace their Airbuses and Boeings with? There's nothing available in anything like the numbers needed.


pro-russia crowd would say that that they will make their own, especially if the West stops meddling.
(of course, by "meddling" they mean allowing Ukraine to defend itself).

For example, if ruskies were allowed to capture Kyiv and Zaporizhia, they would have both Antonov and Motor-Sich under control. This would mean they could have a strong supply of D-436 family engines for small airplanes out there -- Tu-334 (yes, they are still trying to re-start that program, 34 years after official launch), Beriev amphibians, possibly to re-engine SSJ, and of course for An-148 series.
Possibly, they would restart An-148 series, in Kyiv, too.

Maybe those "twin Il-96 series" would be less of a pipedream -- they could build medium-haul mass carriers, just hanging D-18's under them.
So they could have a sensible cannibalization program for existing frames, to keep them running, while restarting russian production, supported with designs and supplies from occupied Ukraine.
Alas, Ukraine is shooting back, and these plans don't work.

And in russia, Rybinskie Motory and Permskie Motory apparently are much less competent in engine building, than russia likes to present...


Are they really looking to look to re-start the Tu-334 production (is there a link to support that)? Would it be easier to restart a 30+ years older design than to adapt the SSJ program? How are they going to power it? It use to be powered by Ukrainian engines.

As per the Il-96 it seems the convention to a twin is underway: https://www.airdatanews.com/russia-to-c ... ngine-jet/
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Nov 24, 2022 3:29 pm

New SSJ delivered with “second category” (used) engines https://airinsight.com/russian-sanctions-bite-deeper/

Not sure increasing use on a limited and dwindling spares pool is the best course of action but here we are.
 
LJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Nov 24, 2022 4:42 pm

Spacepope wrote:
Not sure increasing use on a limited and dwindling spares pool is the best course of action but here we are.


As they would say in the company I work for, at least one can celebrate a success.......and we'll see how we solve it later.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Nov 24, 2022 5:30 pm

SR380 wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
scbriml wrote:

There's really not much speculation involved. The Russian civil aviation sector faces massive challenges. There's zero evidence currently that they're able to overcome those challenges in anything approaching a timely fashion. As for war, Russia is struggling to replace military equipment that it's burning through.



The huge question is, what are they going to replace their Airbuses and Boeings with? There's nothing available in anything like the numbers needed.


pro-russia crowd would say that that they will make their own, especially if the West stops meddling.
(of course, by "meddling" they mean allowing Ukraine to defend itself).

For example, if ruskies were allowed to capture Kyiv and Zaporizhia, they would have both Antonov and Motor-Sich under control. This would mean they could have a strong supply of D-436 family engines for small airplanes out there -- Tu-334 (yes, they are still trying to re-start that program, 34 years after official launch), Beriev amphibians, possibly to re-engine SSJ, and of course for An-148 series.
Possibly, they would restart An-148 series, in Kyiv, too.

Maybe those "twin Il-96 series" would be less of a pipedream -- they could build medium-haul mass carriers, just hanging D-18's under them.
So they could have a sensible cannibalization program for existing frames, to keep them running, while restarting russian production, supported with designs and supplies from occupied Ukraine.
Alas, Ukraine is shooting back, and these plans don't work.

And in russia, Rybinskie Motory and Permskie Motory apparently are much less competent in engine building, than russia likes to present...


Are they really looking to look to re-start the Tu-334 production (is there a link to support that)? Would it be easier to restart a 30+ years older design than to adapt the SSJ program? How are they going to power it? It use to be powered by Ukrainian engines.

As per the Il-96 it seems the convention to a twin is underway: https://www.airdatanews.com/russia-to-c ... ngine-jet/


Tatarstan is busy peddling that for months, again. (They are always at it. Google Tu-334 in Cyrillic, click "News", and you'll inundated with news on Tu-334 program.)
Basically Manturov in Moscow, and some bloggers like Gusarov-- who conveniently owns his own blogging portal with a forum -- so has a captive audience -- always insist that this whole thing is dead
Tatars in Kazan are not so sure.
a few items of potential interest:
https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/541867
Is what was peddled to the goverment of russia, before the "histerical"... sorry, "historical" decision to steal leased airplanes.

here are what Tatars offer:
https://www.tatar-inform.ru/news/aviaot ... tu-5878957

An opinion of a muscovite, who's not in the chain of command for civil aviation, but is in high enough places and wants his opinion heard:
https://ngs.ru/text/economics/2022/03/09/70494818/
 
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SR380
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sat Nov 26, 2022 8:45 am

Phosphorus wrote:
SR380 wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:

pro-russia crowd would say that that they will make their own, especially if the West stops meddling.
(of course, by "meddling" they mean allowing Ukraine to defend itself).

For example, if ruskies were allowed to capture Kyiv and Zaporizhia, they would have both Antonov and Motor-Sich under control. This would mean they could have a strong supply of D-436 family engines for small airplanes out there -- Tu-334 (yes, they are still trying to re-start that program, 34 years after official launch), Beriev amphibians, possibly to re-engine SSJ, and of course for An-148 series.
Possibly, they would restart An-148 series, in Kyiv, too.

Maybe those "twin Il-96 series" would be less of a pipedream -- they could build medium-haul mass carriers, just hanging D-18's under them.
So they could have a sensible cannibalization program for existing frames, to keep them running, while restarting russian production, supported with designs and supplies from occupied Ukraine.
Alas, Ukraine is shooting back, and these plans don't work.

And in russia, Rybinskie Motory and Permskie Motory apparently are much less competent in engine building, than russia likes to present...


Are they really looking to look to re-start the Tu-334 production (is there a link to support that)? Would it be easier to restart a 30+ years older design than to adapt the SSJ program? How are they going to power it? It use to be powered by Ukrainian engines.

As per the Il-96 it seems the convention to a twin is underway: https://www.airdatanews.com/russia-to-c ... ngine-jet/


Tatarstan is busy peddling that for months, again. (They are always at it. Google Tu-334 in Cyrillic, click "News", and you'll inundated with news on Tu-334 program.)
Basically Manturov in Moscow, and some bloggers like Gusarov-- who conveniently owns his own blogging portal with a forum -- so has a captive audience -- always insist that this whole thing is dead
Tatars in Kazan are not so sure.
a few items of potential interest:
https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/541867
Is what was peddled to the goverment of russia, before the "histerical"... sorry, "historical" decision to steal leased airplanes.

here are what Tatars offer:
https://www.tatar-inform.ru/news/aviaot ... tu-5878957

An opinion of a muscovite, who's not in the chain of command for civil aviation, but is in high enough places and wants his opinion heard:
https://ngs.ru/text/economics/2022/03/09/70494818/


I got it: https://topcor.ru/29623-dvigatel-pd-8-m ... u-334.html

It would actually make sense: Type rating would be the same on both Tu-214 and 334. They would still need to modernize the cockpit as it was planned in the SM series so it can flow by 2 pilots.
 
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SR380
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sat Nov 26, 2022 8:48 am

What the reason of keeping both Rossiya and Aeroflot brand?

Both belong to the Aeroflot group and before the was it was decided that Rossiya will mostly fly domestic with localy built SSJ and MC-21 while Aeroflot will fly internationaly with Boeing and Airbus jet. Now that Aeroflot can not access A or B jet and will end up flying only russian build jet, what's the point?
 
marosbts
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:13 pm

Anyone here has any idea about the whereabouts of the AN-70? Does not look like it was destroyed, at least have not seen any confirmation of it.
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:29 pm

marosbts wrote:
Anyone here has any idea about the whereabouts of the AN-70? Does not look like it was destroyed, at least have not seen any confirmation of it.

For anything flyable, without a government announcement and/or a set of photos in public domain confirming destruction (like An-225), I guess it's classified.
I mean, it could be being rebuilt into a home-made gun-ship, a-la Spectre, somewhere in a backyard, for all I know. Why would we warn the perfidious enemy of a new threat coming their way, until it hits them?
 
Vicenza
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 12:00 am

Phosphorus wrote:
marosbts wrote:
Anyone here has any idea about the whereabouts of the AN-70? Does not look like it was destroyed, at least have not seen any confirmation of it.

For anything flyable, without a government announcement and/or a set of photos in public domain confirming destruction (like An-225), I guess it's classified.
I mean, it could be being rebuilt into a home-made gun-ship, a-la Spectre, somewhere in a backyard, for all I know. Why would we warn the perfidious enemy of a new threat coming their way, until it hits them?


Quite a bit of guesswork, and fantasy, there if I may say so. Because latest information is not made public really means nothing and, in reality, I can't see a single AN-70 being a game-changing 'new threat'.
 
dcajet
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 12:47 am

SR380 wrote:
What the reason of keeping both Rossiya and Aeroflot brand?

Both belong to the Aeroflot group and before the was it was decided that Rossiya will mostly fly domestic with localy built SSJ and MC-21 while Aeroflot will fly internationaly with Boeing and Airbus jet. Now that Aeroflot can not access A or B jet and will end up flying only russian build jet, what's the point?


Not that it matters now with Russian commercial aviation facing all kinds of major problems, but I am sure there was a significant labor cost differential between the two, (think different pay scales). That should still be in place. Every kopeck helps...
 
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Phosphorus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 01, 2022 10:56 am

Vicenza wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
marosbts wrote:
Anyone here has any idea about the whereabouts of the AN-70? Does not look like it was destroyed, at least have not seen any confirmation of it.

For anything flyable, without a government announcement and/or a set of photos in public domain confirming destruction (like An-225), I guess it's classified.
I mean, it could be being rebuilt into a home-made gun-ship, a-la Spectre, somewhere in a backyard, for all I know. Why would we warn the perfidious enemy of a new threat coming their way, until it hits them?


Quite a bit of guesswork, and fantasy, there if I may say so. ...

Correct. Let the enemy have sleepless nights, trying to figure out what comes next at them. Why should we make their life any easier, or their sleep any more comfortable?
By the same token, maybe that An-70 is being quietly prepared for a quick dash due West, to cross the border, and join the fleet that helps haul kit.
Or it is abandoned and/or stripped for parts for higher priority projects.
Let them guess. The less enemy knows, and the more nervous he is -- the higher chance he has a brain hemorrhage and just bloody dies :)
 
jmmadrid
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sat Dec 03, 2022 1:19 pm

Just read on the other russian aggression thread that Aeroflot will no longer offer inflight entertainment. Could someone please elaborate? Can´t they fill it with russian films and series? Or continue to offer the western films they were showing until a few days ago? Or do they self-erase themselves? Why were they able to offer this service until now? WHat has changed?
 
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Polot
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sat Dec 03, 2022 2:59 pm

jmmadrid wrote:
Just read on the other russian aggression thread that Aeroflot will no longer offer inflight entertainment. Could someone please elaborate? Can´t they fill it with russian films and series? Or continue to offer the western films they were showing until a few days ago? Or do they self-erase themselves? Why were they able to offer this service until now? WHat has changed?

Parts for IFE system might be difficult to come by and it’s not viewed as a priority to keep operational (whether by parts raiding, parts smuggling, or counterfeiting).
 
dcajet
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Sat Dec 03, 2022 5:54 pm

jmmadrid wrote:
Just read on the other russian aggression thread that Aeroflot will no longer offer inflight entertainment. Could someone please elaborate? Can´t they fill it with russian films and series? Or continue to offer the western films they were showing until a few days ago? Or do they self-erase themselves? Why were they able to offer this service until now? WHat has changed?


It is not the seatback inflight entertainment that got shot. It is the the streaming service to your own personal device on SU's A320/1 and 737s; it just was disconnected by the supplier/s. Aeroflot says that they are working on a homegrown solution that will be available in 2023 and blames the fiasco on "the refusal of foreign suppliers to provide the service". In other words, another casualty of the sanctions.

This is what SU posted on their Telegram channel:
Image
 
pommiecommie
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Dec 05, 2022 12:37 am

I do wonder what the high-ups at Aeroflot really feel about their demotion as a carrier?
 
dcajet
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Dec 05, 2022 8:57 am

pommiecommie wrote:
I do wonder what the high-ups at Aeroflot really feel about their demotion as a carrier?


If they have any thoughts of their own that may not necessarily mirror those of the ones in the highest echelons at the Kremlin, they must be keeping them to themselves. Or else. The more dire the situation Russian aviation faces, the more repressive it will get. They will never admit defeat,

IIRC. at least one executive not only left Aeroflot but left Russia shortly after the invasion of Ukraine. Or was made to leave before he became another one on the long list of unexplained suicides.
 
jmmadrid
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Dec 05, 2022 6:50 pm

Is there any news about more planes being parked? It's been 9 months since the crisis and most planes must have started to need maintenance by now.
 
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Vasu
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Dec 05, 2022 11:54 pm

jmmadrid wrote:
Is there any news about more planes being parked? It's been 9 months since the crisis and most planes must have started to need maintenance by now.


I’d also be interested to know that. The sheer number I see on FR24 makes me wonder how they’ve kept them all going…

Also, have the repos stopped? Because SU seem to be flying the “re-registered” aircraft to more and more destinations now. Are they now worthless and not worth repossessing?
 
telmat
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Dec 06, 2022 11:45 pm

pommiecommie wrote:
I do wonder what the high-ups at Aeroflot really feel about their demotion as a carrier?

I guess if nothing worse than the interruption of in-flight streaming happens they will feel nothing. It does help to calm the nerves when listing to your favourite songs but I guess much worse things are stalking the nightmares of airline executives in general. The point is how long can they keep the present fleet airworthy without risking a major accident? Till now there is no visible prove of any major issue apart from loss of earnings that is compensated by government. No one here hopes for any major accident here but what else would demonstrate the effectiveness of the sanctions and what is the timescale?
 
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Spacepope
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Dec 12, 2022 7:46 pm

Lots of civilian airliners in holding patterns while waiting to land at St. Petersburg. Something happening there or just weather?
 
Jasmin81
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Dec 13, 2022 1:30 pm

jmmadrid wrote:
Is there any news about more planes being parked? It's been 9 months since the crisis and most planes must have started to need maintenance by now.


I'm guessing that there will have some components stored within Russia that they've been able to use, and the major winding back of international operations means they've been able to cut back a lot on flying hours without having to cut too deeply into the domestic routes.

I suspect it'll take a while to bite and won't ever be effective in grounding the western built fleet entirely - Iran has been flying Boeing civil aircraft (and even American built combat aircraft) right though since 1979 - and have been able to keep them in service well beyond their normal lifecycle using a mix of grey and black market imports, reverse engineering and cannibalisation. Admittedly it is much harder for Russia since their aircraft are more modern, so counter-intuitively are harder to keep flying than the old Iranian planes (reverse engineer flight critical software is difficult, whereas a physical part is relatively simple to copy), but Russia also has a much bigger fleet to draw on for cannibalisation, and also does have help from Iran, who can share their experience, which they themselves had to learn from scratch.

Unfortunately for Russia, their domestic production plans seems to be the usual shambolic mess and a lack of clear vision, with some very.... interesting... decisions having been taken (sticking with the as-yet-unfinished MS-21 with foreign components baked in, when the industry is begging for planes right now, seems rather ar*e-about-face when the TU-204/TU-214 is right there and fully indigenous). I don't expect domestic production to enter the fleet in significant numbers for years, and it'll take at least a decade from then to do a full replacement - and that's assuming they can *massively* improve on their average IL-96 production rate of 1 to 2 aircraft per *year*. Bear in mind all the help they are getting from Iran, Syria and N Korea also needs to be repaid - and doubtless a part of that expectation will be some airframes for them too, as all three have very old fleets they'd like to replace.
 
ReverseFlow
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Dec 13, 2022 2:57 pm

Spacepope wrote:
Lots of civilian airliners in holding patterns while waiting to land at St. Petersburg. Something happening there or just weather?
The same looked like it was happening at Kaliningrad today. I saw at least 3 aircraft in a holding pattern east of the airport.
Also an Aeroflop 350 flying to Kaliningrad today.
 
jmmadrid
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Dec 14, 2022 12:02 pm

Jasmin81 wrote:
jmmadrid wrote:
Is there any news about more planes being parked? It's been 9 months since the crisis and most planes must have started to need maintenance by now.


I'm guessing that there will have some components stored within Russia that they've been able to use, and the major winding back of international operations means they've been able to cut back a lot on flying hours without having to cut too deeply into the domestic routes.

I suspect it'll take a while to bite and won't ever be effective in grounding the western built fleet entirely -


While I agree with your theory, I can't help thinking about the maintenance department at Aeroflop.
If it is quite a challenge in the case of airlines with no supply issues (most of them) we can imagine the situation at the russian headquarters.
 
tapairbus370
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Dec 21, 2022 7:28 pm

Does anyone knows how the Ukranian president flew to the USA? And from where?
 
LJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Dec 21, 2022 8:30 pm

tapairbus370 wrote:
Does anyone knows how the Ukranian president flew to the USA? And from where?


He flew with callsign SAM910 on an USAF BBJ (don't know the correct name of the mititary variant). The flight was on Flightradar and other flighttrackers and originated in Rzeszów–Jasionka Airport in Poland and landed at Tilghman Airport.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SAM910

BTW shouldn't this type of flights be blocked from flighttrackers?
 
artflyer
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:03 pm

Was it confirmed that he was on that plane? Was there any footage of him leaving the plane?

RZE is the airport in Poland that is closest to Ukraine. It is around 1h drive (90 km) away from a Polish city of Przemysl, the last train station where trains from Ukraine arrive (track gauge in Ukraine is different than in Poland and in most European countries). All foreign visitors to Kyiv fly to RZE and then go with a motorcade to Przemysl and then onwards by train, which seems to be the safest way in Ukraine during war.
 
LJ
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:12 pm

artflyer wrote:
Was it confirmed that he was on that plane? Was there any footage of him leaving the plane?

RZE is the airport in Poland that is closest to Ukraine. It is around 1h drive (90 km) away from a Polish city of Przemysl, the last train station where trains from Ukraine arrive. All foreign visitors to Kyiv fly to RZE and then go with a motorcade to Przemysl and then onwards by train, which seems to be the safest way in Ukraine during war.


No footage, but the plane was escorted by a F-15E when he flew over the North Sea. In addition, a Boeing AWACS patrolled the North Sea according to a British newspaper, which they don't do under normal circumstances.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/12/21/president-zelensky-flies-washington-plane-guarded-nato-spy-crafts/

BTW the article says that he flew to Andrews AFB, whilst flightaware had a different airport.
 
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AngelsDecay
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Dec 21, 2022 9:53 pm

Tilghman Airport..???

Whats that? even google cant help too much...

Tks
 
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dennypayne
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:11 pm

AngelsDecay wrote:
Tilghman Airport..???

Whats that? even google cant help too much...


Looks like it's a 1920ft grass strip on an island in Maryland which I don't think you'll be landing a BBJ on:

https://www.airnav.com/airport/7MD9

Might not wanna take Flightaware as gospel truth on this one.
 
incitatus
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Dec 21, 2022 10:29 pm

Jasmin81 wrote:
jmmadrid wrote:
Is there any news about more planes being parked? It's been 9 months since the crisis and most planes must have started to need maintenance by now.


I'm guessing that there will have some components stored within Russia that they've been able to use, and the major winding back of international operations means they've been able to cut back a lot on flying hours without having to cut too deeply into the domestic routes.
.


The total flying by Russian airlines is down about 15%. There is a little bit of flying abroad to Turkey, Thailand and India. There is more domestic flying than when the war started. I think Aeroflot stopped selling 11 months out and only puts 6 months for sale.

That is still a lot of flying that is wearing out parts of the Boeing and Airbus aircraft in Russia.
 
tapairbus370
Posts: 286
Joined: Fri May 09, 2008 1:37 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Dec 21, 2022 11:07 pm

"He flew with callsign SAM910 on an USAF BBJ (don't know the correct name of the mititary variant). The flight was on Flightradar and other flighttrackers and originated in Rzeszów–Jasi..."

I believe it's called C-40 clipper

"Was it confirmed that he was on that plane? Was there any footage of him leaving the plane?"

"No footage, but the plane was escorted by a F-15E when he flew over the North Sea..."

Yes, there is footage of that. I mean, we don't see him coming down the stairs but...

https://youtu.be/-_SDHBCiHRc

"There is a little bit of flying abroad to Turkey, Thailand and India..."

I also saw regular flight to at least the Maldives and Cuba.
 
bchandl
Posts: 727
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 7:49 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 22, 2022 2:35 am

incitatus wrote:
Jasmin81 wrote:
jmmadrid wrote:
Is there any news about more planes being parked? It's been 9 months since the crisis and most planes must have started to need maintenance by now.


I'm guessing that there will have some components stored within Russia that they've been able to use, and the major winding back of international operations means they've been able to cut back a lot on flying hours without having to cut too deeply into the domestic routes.
.


The total flying by Russian airlines is down about 15%. There is a little bit of flying abroad to Turkey, Thailand and India. There is more domestic flying than when the war started. I think Aeroflot stopped selling 11 months out and only puts 6 months for sale.

That is still a lot of flying that is wearing out parts of the Boeing and Airbus aircraft in Russia.


2023 shall be very interesting. The cutbacks, canibalizing and the supply of spares they had on hand got them through the last 10 months. Those piggy banks have to be wearing out quickly.
 
BowlingShoeDC9
Posts: 211
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:18 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:21 pm

LJ wrote:
tapairbus370 wrote:
Does anyone knows how the Ukranian president flew to the USA? And from where?


He flew with callsign SAM910 on an USAF BBJ (don't know the correct name of the mititary variant). The flight was on Flightradar and other flighttrackers and originated in Rzeszów–Jasionka Airport in Poland and landed at Tilghman Airport.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SAM910

BTW shouldn't this type of flights be blocked from flighttrackers?


I believe it was on his return trip. Granted I don’t know exactly when he left but I checked periodically last night and didn’t see any C-40’s in the air. I’m assuming the lack of any on ADSB exchange means it was blocked.

For the departing trip it didn’t really matter. Zelensky was picked up in a NATO country on a NATO plane. It would have been suicide for Russia to attack him then. If it was probably a deliberate choice to keep display the info as a political message.

As for the arrival airport it was definitely Andrews.
 
BowlingShoeDC9
Posts: 211
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:18 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 22, 2022 3:27 pm

artflyer wrote:
Was it confirmed that he was on that plane? Was there any footage of him leaving the plane?

RZE is the airport in Poland that is closest to Ukraine. It is around 1h drive (90 km) away from a Polish city of Przemysl, the last train station where trains from Ukraine arrive (track gauge in Ukraine is different than in Poland and in most European countries). All foreign visitors to Kyiv fly to RZE and then go with a motorcade to Przemysl and then onwards by train, which seems to be the safest way in Ukraine during war.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/zele ... -hc5pzz8lg
 
LJ
Posts: 5567
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:31 pm

BowlingShoeDC9 wrote:
LJ wrote:
tapairbus370 wrote:
Does anyone knows how the Ukranian president flew to the USA? And from where?


He flew with callsign SAM910 on an USAF BBJ (don't know the correct name of the mititary variant). The flight was on Flightradar and other flighttrackers and originated in Rzeszów–Jasionka Airport in Poland and landed at Tilghman Airport.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SAM910

BTW shouldn't this type of flights be blocked from flighttrackers?


I believe it was on his return trip. Granted I don’t know exactly when he left but I checked periodically last night and didn’t see any C-40’s in the air. I’m assuming the lack of any on ADSB exchange means it was blocked.


The return flight was also on Flightradar. It was Boeing C-40B 02-0042 which brought him home. Was the most tracked flight as well, thoough much less than his trip to the USA.
 
BowlingShoeDC9
Posts: 211
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:18 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Thu Dec 22, 2022 10:13 pm

LJ wrote:
BowlingShoeDC9 wrote:
LJ wrote:

He flew with callsign SAM910 on an USAF BBJ (don't know the correct name of the mititary variant). The flight was on Flightradar and other flighttrackers and originated in Rzeszów–Jasionka Airport in Poland and landed at Tilghman Airport.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SAM910

BTW shouldn't this type of flights be blocked from flighttrackers?


I believe it was on his return trip. Granted I don’t know exactly when he left but I checked periodically last night and didn’t see any C-40’s in the air. I’m assuming the lack of any on ADSB exchange means it was blocked.


The return flight was also on Flightradar. It was Boeing C-40B 02-0042 which brought him home. Was the most tracked flight as well, thoough much less than his trip to the USA.


Ahh. He must have left after I went to bed… or was already in the mid Atlantic by the time I checked.
 
bchandl
Posts: 727
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 7:49 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Fri Dec 23, 2022 1:26 am

LJ wrote:
BowlingShoeDC9 wrote:
LJ wrote:

He flew with callsign SAM910 on an USAF BBJ (don't know the correct name of the mititary variant). The flight was on Flightradar and other flighttrackers and originated in Rzeszów–Jasionka Airport in Poland and landed at Tilghman Airport.

https://flightaware.com/live/flight/SAM910

BTW shouldn't this type of flights be blocked from flighttrackers?


I believe it was on his return trip. Granted I don’t know exactly when he left but I checked periodically last night and didn’t see any C-40’s in the air. I’m assuming the lack of any on ADSB exchange means it was blocked.


The return flight was also on Flightradar. It was Boeing C-40B 02-0042 which brought him home. Was the most tracked flight as well, thoough much less than his trip to the USA.


Do you have a callsign or a link? I cant find on FR24
 
BowlingShoeDC9
Posts: 211
Joined: Fri Jun 26, 2020 5:18 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Fri Dec 23, 2022 1:37 am

bchandl wrote:
LJ wrote:
BowlingShoeDC9 wrote:

I believe it was on his return trip. Granted I don’t know exactly when he left but I checked periodically last night and didn’t see any C-40’s in the air. I’m assuming the lack of any on ADSB exchange means it was blocked.


The return flight was also on Flightradar. It was Boeing C-40B 02-0042 which brought him home. Was the most tracked flight as well, thoough much less than his trip to the USA.


Do you have a callsign or a link? I cant find on FR24


Here is the track for the inbound. It wasn’t on ADSB exchange for the return trip. Unless it was a different aircraft.

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae ... 2022-12-21
 
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SR380
Posts: 930
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Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Dec 26, 2022 8:34 am

Phosphorus wrote:
SR380 wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:

pro-russia crowd would say that that they will make their own, especially if the West stops meddling.
(of course, by "meddling" they mean allowing Ukraine to defend itself).

For example, if ruskies were allowed to capture Kyiv and Zaporizhia, they would have both Antonov and Motor-Sich under control. This would mean they could have a strong supply of D-436 family engines for small airplanes out there -- Tu-334 (yes, they are still trying to re-start that program, 34 years after official launch), Beriev amphibians, possibly to re-engine SSJ, and of course for An-148 series.
Possibly, they would restart An-148 series, in Kyiv, too.

Maybe those "twin Il-96 series" would be less of a pipedream -- they could build medium-haul mass carriers, just hanging D-18's under them.
So they could have a sensible cannibalization program for existing frames, to keep them running, while restarting russian production, supported with designs and supplies from occupied Ukraine.
Alas, Ukraine is shooting back, and these plans don't work.

And in russia, Rybinskie Motory and Permskie Motory apparently are much less competent in engine building, than russia likes to present...


Are they really looking to look to re-start the Tu-334 production (is there a link to support that)? Would it be easier to restart a 30+ years older design than to adapt the SSJ program? How are they going to power it? It use to be powered by Ukrainian engines.

As per the Il-96 it seems the convention to a twin is underway: https://www.airdatanews.com/russia-to-c ... ngine-jet/


Tatarstan is busy peddling that for months, again. (They are always at it. Google Tu-334 in Cyrillic, click "News", and you'll inundated with news on Tu-334 program.)
Basically Manturov in Moscow, and some bloggers like Gusarov-- who conveniently owns his own blogging portal with a forum -- so has a captive audience -- always insist that this whole thing is dead
Tatars in Kazan are not so sure.
a few items of potential interest:
https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/541867
Is what was peddled to the goverment of russia, before the "histerical"... sorry, "historical" decision to steal leased airplanes.

here are what Tatars offer:
https://www.tatar-inform.ru/news/aviaot ... tu-5878957

An opinion of a muscovite, who's not in the chain of command for civil aviation, but is in high enough places and wants his opinion heard:
https://ngs.ru/text/economics/2022/03/09/70494818/


Once again thanks for the many links.
I am still wondering why United Aircraft Corporation decided to scrap the Tu-334 once it was finally ready, to invest into two sibling’s products: SSJ and An-148.
While I understand the 3-crew cockpit was a no go for many airlines, it seems the order book was quite full. Furthermore, the cockpit commonalities with the Tu-204/214 could have been a huge benefit for airlines (this is partially what gave Airbus its notoriety).
So why spending so much money (talking about government subventions) for an aircraft that was partially built with Europeans (not sanction proof), and another one built with the Ukrainian (although the engines on the Tu-334 were Ukrainian as well)?
UAC could have a line-up of aircraft sanction proof by now that could fit all Russian airline needs: Il-114, Tu-334, Tu-204/214 and Il-96. The 2 crews cockpit technologies develop on the Tu-204SM could have been easily adapt to the Tu-334 as well as fibreglass technologies or new PD (8, 14 or 35) engines.
There is still many things about their line up product that I don’t get…
 
bchandl
Posts: 727
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 7:49 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Dec 26, 2022 2:23 pm

BowlingShoeDC9 wrote:
bchandl wrote:
LJ wrote:

The return flight was also on Flightradar. It was Boeing C-40B 02-0042 which brought him home. Was the most tracked flight as well, thoough much less than his trip to the USA.


Do you have a callsign or a link? I cant find on FR24


Here is the track for the inbound. It wasn’t on ADSB exchange for the return trip. Unless it was a different aircraft.

https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=ae ... 2022-12-21


Thanks for that. I thought you had the return leg which I couldn't believe they would broadcast. I realize now they didn't but I'd love it if details on it started to leak. It's probably not interesting. He probably went back the exact same route but I'd love to know.

Has he made a public appearance in Ukraine since he returned?
 
User avatar
Phosphorus
Posts: 2086
Joined: Tue May 16, 2017 11:38 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Dec 26, 2022 6:53 pm

SR380 wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:
SR380 wrote:

Are they really looking to look to re-start the Tu-334 production (is there a link to support that)? Would it be easier to restart a 30+ years older design than to adapt the SSJ program? How are they going to power it? It use to be powered by Ukrainian engines.

As per the Il-96 it seems the convention to a twin is underway: https://www.airdatanews.com/russia-to-c ... ngine-jet/


Tatarstan is busy peddling that for months, again. (They are always at it. Google Tu-334 in Cyrillic, click "News", and you'll inundated with news on Tu-334 program.)
Basically Manturov in Moscow, and some bloggers like Gusarov-- who conveniently owns his own blogging portal with a forum -- so has a captive audience -- always insist that this whole thing is dead
Tatars in Kazan are not so sure.
a few items of potential interest:
https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/541867
Is what was peddled to the goverment of russia, before the "histerical"... sorry, "historical" decision to steal leased airplanes.

here are what Tatars offer:
https://www.tatar-inform.ru/news/aviaot ... tu-5878957

An opinion of a muscovite, who's not in the chain of command for civil aviation, but is in high enough places and wants his opinion heard:
https://ngs.ru/text/economics/2022/03/09/70494818/


Once again thanks for the many links.
I am still wondering why United Aircraft Corporation decided to scrap the Tu-334 once it was finally ready, to invest into two sibling’s products: SSJ and An-148.
While I understand the 3-crew cockpit was a no go for many airlines, it seems the order book was quite full. Furthermore, the cockpit commonalities with the Tu-204/214 could have been a huge benefit for airlines (this is partially what gave Airbus its notoriety).
So why spending so much money (talking about government subventions) for an aircraft that was partially built with Europeans (not sanction proof), and another one built with the Ukrainian (although the engines on the Tu-334 were Ukrainian as well)?
UAC could have a line-up of aircraft sanction proof by now that could fit all Russian airline needs: Il-114, Tu-334, Tu-204/214 and Il-96. The 2 crews cockpit technologies develop on the Tu-204SM could have been easily adapt to the Tu-334 as well as fibreglass technologies or new PD (8, 14 or 35) engines.
There is still many things about their line up product that I don’t get…


On what planet do you think UAC spent a dime to develop An-148?
Antonov paid for the whole thing. The only money UAC "spent" was to hire some bodies to put together some examples of "russian-produced" An-148 in Voronezh, under close supervision of Antonov. With more or less "feed the dogs, and don't touch the instruments" sort of regimen, if you know that old joke.
No, An-148 isn't "a UAC product" to any reasonable degree.

And no, UAC didn't want Tu-334, because Aviant (in Kyiv) wanted to build it, and Motor-Sich was ready to supply the engines. The drawings were done, subcontractors lined up, things were ready to roll. Obviously, it wasn't a very good plane, but that was a tertiary consideration.

Primary consideration to launch SSJ was simple -- it was a clean-sheet, with a lot of opportunities to embezzle, hide cash offshore and otherwise enrich all the "proper people" involved. Of course, it could also become a better plane technically, but that was a secondary consideration. Number one priority was a classical "Russian business". Lot of money in the pockets of "proper people", was the primary consideration, as always.
 
User avatar
SR380
Posts: 930
Joined: Fri Sep 20, 2013 2:57 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Mon Dec 26, 2022 8:14 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
SR380 wrote:
Phosphorus wrote:

Tatarstan is busy peddling that for months, again. (They are always at it. Google Tu-334 in Cyrillic, click "News", and you'll inundated with news on Tu-334 program.)
Basically Manturov in Moscow, and some bloggers like Gusarov-- who conveniently owns his own blogging portal with a forum -- so has a captive audience -- always insist that this whole thing is dead
Tatars in Kazan are not so sure.
a few items of potential interest:
https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/541867
Is what was peddled to the goverment of russia, before the "histerical"... sorry, "historical" decision to steal leased airplanes.

here are what Tatars offer:
https://www.tatar-inform.ru/news/aviaot ... tu-5878957

An opinion of a muscovite, who's not in the chain of command for civil aviation, but is in high enough places and wants his opinion heard:
https://ngs.ru/text/economics/2022/03/09/70494818/


Once again thanks for the many links.
I am still wondering why United Aircraft Corporation decided to scrap the Tu-334 once it was finally ready, to invest into two sibling’s products: SSJ and An-148.
While I understand the 3-crew cockpit was a no go for many airlines, it seems the order book was quite full. Furthermore, the cockpit commonalities with the Tu-204/214 could have been a huge benefit for airlines (this is partially what gave Airbus its notoriety).
So why spending so much money (talking about government subventions) for an aircraft that was partially built with Europeans (not sanction proof), and another one built with the Ukrainian (although the engines on the Tu-334 were Ukrainian as well)?
UAC could have a line-up of aircraft sanction proof by now that could fit all Russian airline needs: Il-114, Tu-334, Tu-204/214 and Il-96. The 2 crews cockpit technologies develop on the Tu-204SM could have been easily adapt to the Tu-334 as well as fibreglass technologies or new PD (8, 14 or 35) engines.
There is still many things about their line up product that I don’t get…


On what planet do you think UAC spent a dime to develop An-148?
Antonov paid for the whole thing. The only money UAC "spent" was to hire some bodies to put together some examples of "russian-produced" An-148 in Voronezh, under close supervision of Antonov. With more or less "feed the dogs, and don't touch the instruments" sort of regimen, if you know that old joke.
No, An-148 isn't "a UAC product" to any reasonable degree.

And no, UAC didn't want Tu-334, because Aviant (in Kyiv) wanted to build it, and Motor-Sich was ready to supply the engines. The drawings were done, subcontractors lined up, things were ready to roll. Obviously, it wasn't a very good plane, but that was a tertiary consideration.

Primary consideration to launch SSJ was simple -- it was a clean-sheet, with a lot of opportunities to embezzle, hide cash offshore and otherwise enrich all the "proper people" involved. Of course, it could also become a better plane technically, but that was a secondary consideration. Number one priority was a classical "Russian business". Lot of money in the pockets of "proper people", was the primary consideration, as always.


Thanks for all the info. I didn't know about the An-148 nor the Tu-334 beeing built (or should have been built) in Kyiv.

I guess you can't transpose America's Boeing or European's Airbus way of building aircarft to modern Russia's OAK.
 
dcajet
Posts: 6275
Joined: Sun Aug 01, 2004 9:31 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Dec 27, 2022 3:41 am

Sanctions are working: Rossiya is furloughing 1/3 of its Airbus fleet pilots.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5720805
 
TC957
Posts: 4559
Joined: Wed May 23, 2012 1:12 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Dec 27, 2022 11:48 am

Russia is looking at ways of making deals to " purchase " the stolen leased aircraft.
https://simpleflying.com/russia-foreign ... -purchase/
I'm sure the leasing companies would welcome receiving some funds to lessen the losses they have incurred, but surely this wont get past the financial sanctions in place.
 
User avatar
Spacepope
Posts: 6055
Joined: Tue Dec 28, 1999 11:10 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Dec 27, 2022 6:29 pm

I'm watching this UT Air 738, scheduled from IST to Grozny. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UTA728

It entered a high altitude holding pattern just to the east of Sochi, and looks for all the world to be diverting all the way back to IST. Weather doesn't look bad on radar in Grozny or Sochi. What's happening?
 
User avatar
C182driver
Posts: 10
Joined: Thu Jan 28, 2016 7:48 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Dec 27, 2022 7:06 pm

Spacepope wrote:
I'm watching this UT Air 738, scheduled from IST to Grozny. https://flightaware.com/live/flight/UTA728

It entered a high altitude holding pattern just to the east of Sochi, and looks for all the world to be diverting all the way back to IST. Weather doesn't look bad on radar in Grozny or Sochi. What's happening?



Just landed at Samsun Carsamba airport in Turkey.
 
User avatar
SamYeager2016
Posts: 276
Joined: Wed Jun 15, 2016 6:22 pm

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Tue Dec 27, 2022 8:42 pm

dcajet wrote:
Sanctions are working: Rossiya is furloughing 1/3 of its Airbus fleet pilots.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5720805

Does this mean the pilots will be eligible to join the front down south? :devil:
 
dunkelfalke
Posts: 12
Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2022 8:33 am

Re: Russian Invasion of Ukraine - Civil Aviation Related *Discussion* Thread

Wed Dec 28, 2022 8:22 pm

Phosphorus wrote:
There is still many things about their line up product that
Antonov paid for the whole thing. The only money UAC "spent" was to hire some bodies to put together some examples of "russian-produced" An-148 in Voronezh, under close supervision of Antonov. With more or less "feed the dogs, and don't touch the instruments" sort of regimen, if you know that old joke.

And by "some examples" you mean two thirds of all airframes built?

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